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NOAA predicts an active Atlantic hurricane season: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:08 PM GMT on May 19, 2011

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. NOAA forecasts a very active and possibly hyperactive season. They give a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA predicts a 70% chance that there will be 12 - 18 named storms, 6 – 10 hurricanes, and 3 - 6 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 105% - 200% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4.5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 152% of normal. A season with an ACE index over 165% is considered "hyperactive." An average season has 10 – 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during 1995-2010 have averaged about 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median. NOAA classifies 11 of the 16 seasons since 1995 as above normal, with eight being hyperactive. Only five seasons since 1995 have not been above normal, which include four El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009), and the 2007 season.

The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) Above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between between 10°N and 20°N. SSTs in the MDR during April were about 0.5°C above average, the 14th warmest April SSTs in the past 100 years. This is far below last year's record 1.4°C anomaly, but still plenty warm enough to help drive above-average Atlantic hurricane activity. Long-range computer forecast models are predicting a continuation of these above-average SSTs through the peak part of hurricane season.

2) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): "During 1995-2010, some key aspects of the tropical multi-decadal signal within the MDR have included warmer than average SSTs, reduced vertical wind shear and weaker easterly trade winds, below-average sea-level pressure, and a configuration of the African easterly jet that is more conducive to hurricane development from tropical waves moving off the African coast. Many of these atmospheric features typically become evident during late April and May, as the atmosphere across the tropical Atlantic and Africa begins to transition into its summertime monsoon state."

3) An El Niño event is not expected this year: "Another climate factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane activity is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO.) The three phases of ENSO are El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO-Neutral. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Niña events tend to enhance it (Gray 1984). Currently, the 2010-11 La Niña episode is dissipating. Based on observations and ENSO forecast models, ENSO-Neutral conditions are likely during the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season."

4) NOAA is increasingly using output from ultra-long range runs of the computer forecast models we rely on to make day-to-day weather forecasts, for their seasonal hurricane forecasts: "The outlook also takes into account dynamical model predictions from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the United Kingdom Meteorology (UKMET) office, and the EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction (EUROSIP) ensemble. These models are indicating a high likelihood of an above normal season."

How accurate are the NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts?
A talk presented by NHC's Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA's late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast (Figure 2). Not surprisingly, NOAA's August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast.


Figure 1. Mean absolute error for the May and August NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts (1999 - 2009 for May, 1998 - 2009 for August), and for forecasts made using climatology from the past five years. A forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

How do NOAA's seasonal hurricane forecasts compare to CSU and TSR?
Two other major seasonal hurricane forecasts will be released over the next two weeks. On June 1, Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) issue their forecast, and the British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook on May 24. A three-way comparison of the forecast accuracy of the three groups' forecast (Figure 2) reveals that all three organizations enjoy some success at making accurate seasonal forecasts, with NOAA and CSU making the best late May/early June forecasts overall. While the skill of these forecasts is low, they are useful for businesses such as the insurance industry.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August). using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Prepare now,,and avoid the grief and Rush later.

Hurricane Preparation 2011

What to stock up on: Spam or toilet paper.
NOAA is calling for 15 named storms,

Yesterday it was 16 named storms. What happened overnight?
If you stock up on spam, your for sure going to need TP.
Watching CNN early this morning , they reported a reading of 114.8F in Pakistan, with the humidity the heat index was 150F.
Spam, Pineapple, and brown sugar! mmmmmm!

Thanks Dr. Masters for forwarding the various agencies and group's forecasts, and providing accessible analysis.

Thanks blog community for the smiles and additional info. I have little to contribute, but consume often (the blog that is, not the spam).

with the humidity the heat index was 150F.

Don't your brains start to boil at some point?
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
NOAA is calling for 15 named storms,

Yesterday it was 16 named storms. What happened overnight?
uh... a different agency weighed in on the numbers, is what happened overnight.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
NOAA is calling for 15 named storms,

Yesterday it was 16 named storms. What happened overnight?


-1
I was counting on 16. The 16th letter in the alphabet is P. Not fair.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
I was counting on 16. The 16th letter in the alphabet is P. Not fair.


Why did you have to say the letter P. brb
The guy who said 16 is still in a huff that 91L wasn't named.
Rebroadcast going on now Hurricane Hollow

NOAA's 2011 Hurricane Season Outlook May 19, 2011

As our friend Patrap has been saying always and I agree,Regardless of the numbers,preparation should be the priority for those who live in hurricane alley,as the important thing is not how many storms will form,but where those that do so will go.

Quoting Patrap:
Prepare now,,and avoid the grief and Rush later.

Hurricane Preparation 2011



Yep. Going to change the oil in my generator this weekend, stock up on fuel and Stabil, and hit the Warehouse Food Store(tm) at the end of the month.
yeah,yeah,,12-14,4-9,3-6,Blah,yak,blah.


Where and when and How Big?

When they get to dat point,,I'll give it some credence, till then it's all chest thumping to me.


Prepare today and be ahead of the call when it comes.

Food fer thought.


..We dont like Spam
"Parkay"

Butter!!!
You can beat everyone over the head with this material, and they still will not be ready, when a hurricane shows up....
From Tropical Florida
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
"Parkay"

Butter!!!


I can't believe it's not. :|
Sorry about the "P", Pcoladan.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
I was counting on 16. The 16th letter in the alphabet is P. Not fair.
Sadly for you, the P storm in 2011 is Philippe. Here's to hoping Peggy never comes up in the rotation.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Sorry about the "P", Pcoladan.


brb
Here's to hoping Peggy never comes up in the rotation

Thanks, Jesus. Didn't know you were such a buzzkill.
whee the heck are all these lurkers/old posters coming from??

have ya'll been looking at the born-on dates on some of these folks?
Quoting aquak9:
whee the heck are all these lurkers/old posters coming from??

have ya'll been looking at the born-on dates on some of these folks?


I know. I'm beginning to feel like a kid in here.
Where's my pal Jeff? He's been touting a early start to the rainy season here in Fl. Not one of the long rage forecasts that I have seen bring any significant rain here over the next 5-10 days.
SURFACE CURRENT SAT JSL 48 h FORECAST
Jesus has been around since May 6th, 2008. I wonder if he has the inside scoop for the apocolypse this coming Saturday?
29. clwstmchasr

On vacation with Rasta maybe?


ACK!
I wonder who will have the last post when the apocolypse hits?
33. geepy86 1:23 PM EDT on May 19, 2011
I wonder who will have the last post when the apocolypse hits?


I am betting Taz.
or Presslord, complaining that the "Carolinas" are NOT being destroyed.
timezone, timezone- it'll be someone in cally to make the last post- yep, probably taz
Taz,,def,,post #666 Saturday,8pm CDT,6pm PDT


Hey,,where everyone go,,93L is her!!
Reposted from last blog because *ahem* nobody announced there was a NEW BLOG and I was playing there all by myself for 40 minutes before I figured out y'all were over here... :P


I doubt anyone on this blog is genuinely concerned about the predicted doomsday this Saturday. But I'm providing this info anyway for your edu-tainment.

Here are the predicted doomsdays just for 2011:

Date ---------------- Source
April 6, 2011 -------- Marilyn Agee
May 21, 2011 -------- Electronic Bible Fellowship
May 29, 2011 -------- Marilyn Agee
October 21, 2011 ------ Electronic Bible Fellowship(among others)


There have been multiple predicted doomsdays every year since at least the 1990s. From the 1970s through the 90s there was at least one doomsday prediction nearly every year. As you look back in time before the 1970s the predictions are less and less frequent, but there are doomsday predictions dating all the way back to the time when Jesus was alive (and probably many before that).

Here's a great source for info about doomsday predictions:

From the Ontario Consultants on Religious Tolerance
Reposted from last blog because *ahem* nobody announced there was a NEW BLOG and I was playing there all by myself for 40 minutes before I figured out y'all were over here... :P

we did that on purpose
Quoting Patrap:
Taz,,def,,post #666 Saturday,8pm CDT,6pm PDT


Hey,,where everyone go,,93L is her!!


LOL
Thank you Pat...that honestly made my day.
MrMixon- Actually, Grothar did... he said golb wen, which is "New Blog" spelled backwards.
Quoting aquak9:
Reposted from last blog because *ahem* nobody announced there was a NEW BLOG and I was playing there all by myself for 40 minutes before I figured out y'all were over here... :P

we did that on purpose


I see how it is... and I even put on deodorant today. Hmpf.

Rain on the plains and snow in the foothills and mountains of Colorado today. We had about 4 inches of snow on the ground this morning in Nederland. Due to all the rain and snow we've gotten over the past 7 days, Boulder Creek is approaching "bank full" and snowmelt in the high country is just getting started. I heard reports of a funnel cloud yesterday just southeast of my office (I believe it was associated with the vaguely hook-echoish thing I pointed out on the blog yesterday).

Overcast with drizzle at the moment... I think I'll have another cup of coffee...
ANOMALIES May 19, 2008


ANOMALIES May 19, 2011
Quoting jeffs713:
MrMixon- Actually, Grothar did... he said golb wen, which is "New Blog" spelled backwards.


Ha! I saw that post but it went completely over my head. Like I said... time for more coffee.
We ca dance if we wanna,,
.
mr mixon- it's almost 2pm- if you're not awake yet, coffee ain't gonna help
Red Bull, with Spam.
Quoting aquak9:
mr mixon- it's almost 2pm- if you're not awake yet, coffee ain't gonna help


But it's only 11:55pm here in the Mountain Time Zone. :) And with this grey, foggy, drizzly weather we're having it might as well be 6am as far as my body is concerned. *yawn*
...It is the summer of my smiles - flee from me Keepers of the Gloom.
Speak to me only with your eyes. It is to you I give this tune.
Ain't so hard to recognize - These things are clear to all from
time to time....
Quoting DestinJeff:
I wonder if NOAA numbers considered the Reed Theorem, where every invest gets named.


LOL. But he gets everything right though. Haven't you seen all of his proof?
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Red Bull, with Spam.


♪♪ Spam spam spam spam, lovely spam, wonderful spam... ♪♪

I'm down on the plains for work right now... wishing I was up in the foothills on my x-country skis...

What it looks like on the plains:



What it looks like in the foothills:




The plains look gloomy. And cold.

More Red Bull.
Quoting jeffs713:
MrMixon- Actually, Grothar did... he said golb wen, which is "New Blog" spelled backwards.


And you probably thought I was writing Norwegian. What does everyone think of the NOAA report? Very high ACE.
IR view of the nevada, new mexico area look like a tropical system with a band all the way to the Bahamas. Missed all of you this year... looks like its time to start lurking and chirping again for the new season! Nice to be back.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
The plains look gloomy. And cold.

More Red Bull.


Has anyone ever told you that you post remarkably similar to FLdewey? :)
NOAA says an active hurricane season.
When don't they say that????
It really doesn't mean much any more.
It's just guess work.


Quoting noorapac:
NOAA says an active hurricane season.
When don't they say that????
It really doesn't mean much any more.
It's just guess work.




Lol...When have they been wrong recently?
Has anyone ever told you that you post remarkably similar to FLdewey? :)

No, but I will take that as a compliment.
Quoting MrMixon:


But it's only 11:55pm here in the Mountain Time Zone. :) And with this grey, foggy, drizzly weather we're having it might as well be 6am as far as my body is concerned. *yawn*

Since I seriously doubt its almost midnight there (as you are just one time zone away and its currently 1:14pm)... I'm thinking you need to either:

A. stop drinking
or
B. drink more.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Has anyone ever told you that you post remarkably similar to FLdewey? :)

No, but I will take that as a compliment.


LOL...You should.
Quoting aquak9:
whee the heck are all these lurkers/old posters coming from??

have ya'll been looking at the born-on dates on some of these folks?


We're always here Aquak... Watching, waiting... lurking.

OK, not as creepy as it sounds!

Learning... yes, gotta put learning in there.
¿uosɐǝs ʎsnq ɐ ǝq ןןıʍ ʇı ʞuıɥʇ ǝuoʎɹǝʌǝ

Woops, should practise Yoga while on the blog.
I like the mid-point of the NHC forecasts, as it is in agreement with my numbers, but I still don't see the need for the 1.5 standard deviation spread. Based on climatology alone their range makes it nearly impossible to go wrong. I suppose that's why it is that way.
Quoting Patrap:
Taz,,def,,post #666 Saturday,8pm CDT,6pm PDT


Hey,,where everyone go,,93L is her!!


LOL... OK, that is too funny!

Good luck with the hurricane preps!
Quoting jeffs713:

Since I seriously doubt its almost midnight there (as you are just one time zone away and its currently 1:14pm)... I'm thinking you need to either:

A. stop drinking
or
B. drink more.
Same to you, if you think I'm grothar or he is me.
grothar- ACE was predicted to be only 152% above normal, that's high activity but not considered hyperactivity, as hyperactivity is at 165%
Quoting jeffs713:

Since I seriously doubt its almost midnight there (as you are just one time zone away and its currently 1:14pm)... I'm thinking you need to either:

A. stop drinking
or
B. drink more.


You are witnessing the debilitating effects of sunlight deprivation on a Coloradan...
Quoting MrMixon:


You are witnessing the debilitating effects of sunlight deprivation on a Coloradan...


told ya'll we shoulda left'm in the previous blog...
Quoting aquak9:
grothar- ACE was predicted to be only 152% above normal, that's high activity but not considered hyperactivity, as hyperactivity is at 165%


I believe it now shows 200%
Quoting Grothar:


I believe it now shows 200%


As an upper bound.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Same to you, if you think I'm grothar or he is me.


I don't know how anyone could believe you and I are the same. All one has to do is check your grammar. Proper names are always capitalized, unless one is referring to e e cummings.
gro- i read your link on the previous blog, just put out today, right? those were the numbers they provided for ACE predictions.

Where are the new numbers, this 200% (and upward bound) that you speak of, can you please provide another link?

no really how did it change that fast?
Somebody has the NHC keyboard?


Quoting Grothar:
¿uosɐǝs ʎsnq ɐ ǝq ןןıʍ ʇı ʞuıɥʇ ǝuoʎɹǝʌǝ

Woops, should practise Yoga while on the blog.


We are use to your upside down thinking.........LOL.....hey GROTH
Quoting aquak9:
whee the heck are all these lurkers/old posters coming from??

have ya'll been looking at the born-on dates on some of these folks?


Speaking of old lurkers, I brought this over from this mornings sunrise services.

"401. RevElvis 10:44 PM GMT on May 18, 2011
Hi all - been a member for over five years, have lurked, but never posted. Thought this was an interesting enough story to break the pattern.

"Atmosphere Above Japan Heated Rapidly Before M9 Earthquake"

Link
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1"




Link

I added this related video. 30 mins before the 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China.

Link
Quoting Grothar:


I don't know how anyone could believe you and I are the same. All one has to do is check your grammar. Proper names are always capitalized, unless one is referring to e e cummings.
Ah, caught.
And greetings, old guy. Been a while since I've seen you on, but then again, I've been only lurking from time to time.
New wu term added to the site Glossary



Lurk-a-Billy
Quoting aquak9:
grothar- ACE was predicted to be only 152% above normal, that's high activity but not considered hyperactivity, as hyperactivity is at 165%


lol...as far as I'm concerned 165% to 152% is the same as apples and oranges.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Where's my pal Jeff? He's been touting a early start to the rainy season here in Fl. Not one of the long rage forecasts that I have seen bring any significant rain here over the next 5-10 days.


Nice finish on that follow through!!!! Well done!
Quoting aquak9:


told ya'll we shoulda left'm in the previous blog...


What, no pity for the UV-starved? ;-)

I'm afraid all the rain/snow we're getting here is Mississippi-bound (Boulder Creek -> South Platte River -> Platte River -> Missouri River -> Mississippi River). Boulder Creek's contribution is just a drop in the proverbial bucket, but the next system is officially "across the divide" and adding moisture to the overly-wet Mississippi Basin.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


lol...as far as I'm concerned 165% to 152% is the same as apples and oranges.



The release of energy or heat is very important the following year. Not really sure that it makes a large difference! Shear and dry air are the most contributing factors to active seasons. Ocean heat content seems is always there.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


lol...as far as I'm concerned 165% to 152% is the same as apples and oranges.



Comon..... Doesnt a hurricane understand the difference??? Stupid canes
Quoting Levi32:


As an upper bound.


You are correct. I should have clarified it. I was providing the high number which they should on the graph.
These storms as of now only have a severe thunderstorm warning associated with them, expect that to be upgraded as all three are rotating...

WESTERN OKLAHOMA



The last couple runs of the ECMWF have shown pretty low pressures in the western Caribbean by Days 8-10, with a trough-split over Florida that may become instrumental.

I'm no Hydrologist, so I can't say if this article
I read from the Examiner is even valid enough to put any thought to it but it certenly is intreasting.

Link
honestly no- I do not care about the difference between 153% and 165%

but I do care about the difference between 153% and 200%

d'fly! :) happy to see you

I am lost with all these new people here
Quoting TampaSpin:



The release of energy or heat is very important the following year. Not really sure that it makes a large difference! Shear and dry air are the most contributing factors to active seasons. Ocean heat content seems is always there.


It's all about the SAL and ULL's!!!!!
Here are all the ENSO Models update for May. The majority are Neutral when the peak of the Atlantic season arrives in August,September and October.

Quoting blsealevel:
I'm no Hydrologist, so I can't say if this article
I read from the Examiner is even valid enough to put any thought to it but it certenly is intreasting.

Link


Actually that is a EXCELLENT article on the River's history.

Thanx for the link to it.
Quoting aquak9:
honestly no- I do not care about the difference between 153% and 165%

but I do care about the difference between 153% and 200%

d'fly! :) happy to see you

I am lost with all these new people here



Don't worry about getting confused. As you get older, it is a nice break in the day sometimes. LOL



Quoting aquak9:
whee the heck are all these lurkers/old posters coming from??

have ya'll been looking at the born-on dates on some of these folks?


I'm almost always here at least twice a week during the week - not always posting though.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Speaking of old lurkers, I brought this over from this mornings sunrise services.

"401. RevElvis 10:44 PM GMT on May 18, 2011
Hi all - been a member for over five years, have lurked, but never posted. Thought this was an interesting enough story to break the pattern.

"Atmosphere Above Japan Heated Rapidly Before M9 Earthquake"

Link
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1"




Link

I added this related video. 30 mins before the 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China.

Link


Interesting article...predicting earthquakes seem to be right around the corner.
Quoting Patrap:


Actually that is a EXCELLENT article on the River's history.

Thanx for the link to it.


Your welcome
Quoting atmoaggie:
Ah, caught.
And greetings, old guy. Been a while since I've seen you on, but then again, I've been only lurking from time to time.


I've been away quite awhile myself. It is nice to see so many new handles, but also comforting to see old friends returning as well. Hope you have been behaving. Looks like we might have a busy season.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


It's all about the SAL and ULL's!!!!!


AND, the position of the A-B high once it sets in place for the Summer around July......Trajectory is the key once we get into the heart of the Cape Verde season.
Did someone say "lurk?"
Quoting blsealevel:
I'm no Hydrologist, so I can't say if this article
I read from the Examiner is even valid enough to put any thought to it but it certenly is intreasting.

Link


I'm a hydrologist and I found the article fascinating. I don't know enough about the hydrology of the Lower Mississippi to comment on the article's accuracy, but it all gels with my basic understanding of things there.

Thanks!

PS - I'll try to quit complaining about the drizzle here seeing as it's nowhere near wet enough to threaten my life and property. Though, like I said before, our water is all ultimately Mississippi water, so I'm kinda complaining on behalf of the folks threatened by the ongoing flooding. Yeah, that's it...
Quoting aquak9:
honestly no- I do not care about the difference between 153% and 165%

but I do care about the difference between 153% and 200%

d'fly! :) happy to see you

I am lost with all these new people here


Another lurker here since 2009 but decided to participate fully this year.
Quoting aquak9:
honestly no- I do not care about the difference between 153% and 165%

but I do care about the difference between 153% and 200%

d'fly! :) happy to see you

I am lost with all these new people here


Good to see you to water pup
I'm ready for the first TD............
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
33. geepy86 1:23 PM EDT on May 19, 2011
I wonder who will have the last post when the apocolypse hits?


I am betting Taz.


I am betting on Grothar making the last post. He always seems to know just when to post. I think he may have seen the coming of days before. I think it may have been on and Ark with a few friends and their pets.
Quoting NavarreMark:


Since they built Chatfield & Cherry Creek reservoirs, the metro area of Denver has been relatively immune to major floods.

Ya can still get the Big Thompson like event though.


Yep - our reservoirs still have plenty of flood control capacity at the moment.

The canyons are always going to be prone to "Big Thompson like" events unless we start placing dams every few miles. Speaking of which, I should add one of the "In case of flood, climb to safety" signs to my wunderphoto collection.
110. Jax82
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
I'm ready for the first TD............


I'm ready for an invest at least, or a blob, or a spin, or an interception return for a touchdown.
the pets don't get to go- we covered that yesterday
Some interesting stats on TWC about how fortunate we've been regarding hurricane landfalls:

No hurricanes have made landfall in the United States for two straight years; the first time since 2000-01.

Following the landfall of Hurricane Ike (2008) in Texas, there have been 18 consecutive Atlantic basin hurricanes without a hurricane making landfall in the United States.

This is not (yet) the longest stretch of “misses," however. A longer such string of 22 hurricanes occurred during 1999-2002.

No major hurricanes have struck the U.S. since 2005, or for five straight years (2006-2010), the first time that has happened since 1910-1914.


Wonder how much longer these "misses" are gonna go on? Unfortunately, probably not much longer.
Quoting MrMixon:


What, no pity for the UV-starved? ;-)

I'm afraid all the rain/snow we're getting here is Mississippi-bound (Boulder Creek -> South Platte River -> Platte River -> Missouri River -> Mississippi River). Boulder Creek's contribution is just a drop in the proverbial bucket, but the next system is officially "across the divide" and adding moisture to the overly-wet Mississippi Basin.


Yes I have pity for you as I experience almost 45 days of rain and overcast skies on a Pacific Island some year ago. Natives were restless and so we're us GI's.
115. beell
Quoting Patrap:


Actually that is a EXCELLENT article on the River's history.

Thanx for the link to it.


Some of the stuff about the rivers history may be accurate-but the stuff about the 2011 flood is pretty much wrong...the author is very much misinformed.
Thus,note the History part of my post beell.


2011,,well,most didnt know we have two Relief Spillways either,,thats how important Se. La. is to the Nations Commerce.

Now,,most do.

Now,,can we get some below NOLA for replenishing the Miss River estuary?, is what we should be asking.
Quoting aquak9:
the pets don't get to go- we covered that yesterday


Yes. I saw that yesterday. We are talking about then and now. Now, "No Pets Allowed!". Back in the day, Grothar remembers, "Please! Do NOT Forget to Bring Your Pets!", by order of Captain Noah.
Flooding In Louisiana's Great Basin: A Good Thing?
by Greg Allen, National Public Radio
May 18, 2011



The Army Corps of Engineers opened another bay on the Morganza Spillway Wednesday — diverting more water off the Mississippi through the bayous and rivers of Louisiana's Atchafalaya Basin.

The corps says it will divert as much water as necessary to keep the Mississippi no higher than 45 feet as it passes through Baton Rouge.

But some of that water might actually be welcome.

'We Need Good Water'

Few people pay closer attention to water conditions in the Atchafalaya Basin than those who make their living catching crawfish.

Lee Wisdom and other craw fishermen in St. Martin Parish are launching their boats, not off the ramps, but from the levee. They can't get to the ramps. Water has already risen several feet on Bayou Benoit. And water from the Morganza Spillway hasn't even reached this area yet.

Mike Bienvenu, head of the Louisiana Crawfish Producers Association, says he's not sure whether the coming flood will improve the crawfish crop or not.

"We don't like high water. High water is not good. We need good water. All we need is three or four feet [of] water to crawfish in, that's all we need," he says.

Craw fishing has declined here in recent years. Bienvenu and others blame the web of canals and levees that oil and gas companies have put in the Atchafalaya Basin, keeping fresh water from some bayous.

When the high water hits this area in coming weeks, it will flush out stagnant ponds with fresh water full of oxygen and sediment. Harold Schoeffler, who has fished these waters his whole life, says that's bound to improve things in the basin.

As water washes up on levees and other formerly dry areas, he says long-dormant crawfish will come out of the mud and start breeding.

"So you get this phenomenal production," Schoeffler says. "And then shrimp. This is an estuary where shrimp from the Gulf come into this system and reproduce. So you have this phenomenal amount of nutrients and water that's going to cause an enormous growth of shrimp that feeds speckled trout and redfish and flounder. And the whole thing just takes off."

Short term, the high water is threatening a huge animal population including as many as 150 black bears, plus many deer and smaller mammals. Schoeffler, who is the longtime chairman of the Sierra Club in this part of Louisiana, says, for the most part, the animals should do fine. Water is rising slowly, and he says, even at the crest, there will be plenty of high ground in the basin.

"We have spoil banks up there 50, 55 feet above sea level," he says. "Many hills in the 35- to 45-foot range, which are really an island for wildlife."

A Natural Part Of The Basin Ecology

It might be surprising that, although 1.5 million cubic feet of water per second may soon be released into this basin, those living here are remarkably undisturbed. That's in part because flooding is a natural part of this area's ecology.

This flood event, the largest since 1973, will reshape the basin — filling in some swamps with sediment and turning them into hardwood forests.

For Louisiana's long-eroding coastal wetlands, though, this flooding is a good thing.

Ivor van Heerden, a marine scientist formerly with Louisiana State University, says the tons of sediment washing down the river will spur plant and animal life and help build new wetlands.

"In the central part of the coast, because of the Atchafalaya, we're going to definitely be creating new marshes. We're going to be rejuvenating a huge area of marsh, so a lot of benefits," he says.

Paul Kemp of the National Audubon Society agrees. Unfortunately, he says, the place where new sediment and new marshes are needed most desperately — below New Orleans at the mouth of the Mississippi — won't be helped by the flood. Because of efforts to keep the Mississippi wide open for navigation, any sediment flowing down the river is likely to be dredged and dumped, not in coastal areas, but off the Continental Shelf.

"And I would have loved to say, 'This was the event we were waiting for. We were prepared and we were able to do 50 years of restoration in one year.' I can't say that today," Kemp says.

Kemp, van Heerden and others active in coastal restoration, hope this event will persuade the Army Corps of Engineers and other public agencies to take steps allowing not just the Atchafalaya but also the Mississippi to actually benefit from the flood. Copyright 2011 National Public Radio. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.
Broadcast Dates

* All Things Considered, May 18, 2011
Quoting beell:


Some of the stuff about the rivers history may be accurate-but the stuff about the 2011 flood is pretty much wrong...the author is very much misinformed.


Which parts of the article were wrong? I'm ignorant and genuinely curious.
122. beell
Quoting MrMixon:


Which parts of the article were wrong? I'm ignorant and genuinely curious.


There are almost too many parts wrong to mention.

The most glaring:

Since the Red River and Atchafalaya Basin are really the same river, Red River Landing is an ineffective dam. In reality, the Corps of Engineers term %u201Cfloodway%u201D means %u201Cwhere we hope the water will flow.%u201D %u201CSpillway%u201D is the Corps%u2019 terminology for a dam. The Army Corps has opened the Morganza Dam. Apparently, the dam at the Red River has not been opened

I can only guess that the dam at Red River Landing is a reference to the Old River Control Structure (ORCS). It is open year-round. Diverting 30% of the Mississppi River flow into the THE Atchafalaya Basin. There are not two Atchafalaya Basins. It has been running at/near capacity for at least a couple of weeks.

There is no "Red River Dam".

This is a piece of crap journalism.
Sibi Pakistan -
Temperature

120 °F . Heat Index: 125 °F.
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/41697 .html
TCHP in the Caribbean has skyrocketed over the last week due to the absence of trade winds and clouds.

Pretty amazing how fast SSTs can heat up when winds are light. Winds have been very low over almost the entire Caribbean this past week and look at the result:

May 11, 2011:



May 18, 2011:



A 2-3C increase in temps is widespread across the Caribbean. The GOM has recently halted its cooling due to record low temps across the Southern US this week. These record lows temps are going to be followed by temps about 5-10 degrees above average this weekend into next week, which will help get the Gulf sizzling. In the overall Tropical Atlantic, we are behind last year still, but made big strides this past week, especially in the Caribbean, towards the record temps of last year. In fact, a lot of the Caribbean is warmer than this time last year...

May 18, 2010:



Also, check out the increase in heat potential over the past week...

May 11, 2011:



May 18, 2011:



Still behind last year at this time, but not by much now...

May 18, 2010:

Quoting Levi32:
TCHP in the Caribbean has skyrocketed over the last week due to the absence of trade winds and clouds.



How long is the light shear supposed to last down there?
Quoting Levi32:
TCHP in the Caribbean has skyrocketed over the last week due to the absence of trade winds and clouds.



It's like you read my mind. You posted that while I was typing my long SST and TCHP post. Lol.
Navy analysis also shows the warming:

Quoting ILwthrfan:


How long is the light shear supposed to last down there?


Shear is still strong over the Caribbean due to upper-level winds. The surface trade winds are starting to resume at a slow speed, but the models don't seem to increase them very much during the next couple of weeks.
Quoting Levi32:
Navy analysis also shows the warming:



What is the cause of the high heat blob in the gulf
wouldnt that hole area be warm?
Quoting blsealevel:


What is the cause of the high heat blob in the gulf
wouldnt that hole area be warm?


The Gulf loop current. It's very warm at great depths.
Quoting MississippiWx:


The Gulf loop current. It's very warm at great depths.


Yep; forgot about that "sorry"
Quoting Levi32:


Shear is still strong over the Caribbean due to upper-level winds. The surface trade winds are starting to resume at a slow speed, but the models don't seem to increase them very much during the next couple of weeks.


Whoops...I meant surface winds lol. Is the MJO still forcasted to increase in this area over the next weeks or have the models backed off on that idea lately?
Quoting blsealevel:


What is the cause of the high heat blob in the gulf
wouldnt that hole area be warm?


That's the main eddy of the loop current, where warm water extends to a great depth.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Whoops...I meant surface winds lol. Is the MJO still forcasted to increase in this area over the next weeks or have the models backed off on that idea lately?


It has already been in our area of the world for a few days now. The signal is forecast to weaken, but possibly loop right back into octants 7 and 8. That says a lot about the warm water in the Atlantic compared to the rest of the world.

I think our first Atlantic system will probably develop in the SW Caribbean sometime within the net week or first week of June. We sure need rain
138. beell
Moderate risk

Click for full Outlook
Been lurking here for a while, learning lots from you guys but don't really feel like I know enough to speak yet.
Quoting TampaSpin:








1950 really had a 240+ ACE? with only 5 storms? I think I am reading these graphs correctly.

BTW, thanks for the information.
144. Jax82
Quoting HurricaneDevo:


1950 really had a 240 ACE? with only 5 storms? I think I am reading these graphs correctly.

BTW, thanks for the information.


The number of hurricanes chart goes to 1945, if you look at 1950 it has 11 hurricanes to go with the high ACE.
Quoting Jax82:


The number of hurricanes chart goes to 1944, if you look at 1950 it has 11 hurricanes to go with the high ACE.


8 of them major hurricanes, at that.
Quoting HurricaneDevo:


1950 really had a 240+ ACE? with only 5 storms? I think I am reading these graphs correctly.

BTW, thanks for the information.


1950 had 13 storms, 11 hurricanes, 8 majors, giving a seriously high ACE.
Quoting Kahlest:
Been lurking here for a while, learning lots from you guys but don't really feel like I know enough to speak yet.


Ah, but surely if you've been lurking long enough you know that ignorance never stops people from posting here! (I offer up myself as Exhibit A)

:)

I kid, of course.

"Wise men, when in doubt whether to speak or to keep quiet, give themselves the benefit of the doubt, and remain silent." -Napoleon Hill

Welcome to the famdamly.
Landsat Offers Stunning Comparison Of Flooding "NASA"

Link
149. sotv
6.0 earthquake in Turkey, quite shallow depth
Quoting Jax82:


The number of hurricanes chart goes to 1944, if you look at 1950 it has 11 hurricanes to go with the high ACE.


Thanks, I looked at the 1950 archive and it is interesting that in that year, the total was 12-11-8, with the following breakdown, 1 cat 5, 2 cat 4, 5 cat 3, 2 cat 2, and 1 cat 1, 1 TS.

I find it amazing that almost all of the storms were hurricanes and 66% were majors.
did they do sst maps in 1950?
I wonder if there were more storms in 1950 than were reported, as all of them formed east of 50 degrees and 6 of them were land-falling.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so go ahead pet the polar bear good luck with that
you wouldnt need to pet the polar bear. as atmoaggie says,

Quoting atmoaggie:
Of course. When they are used to being around people and you have been around that particular animal enough to recognize moods, that is easy.

I don't think either of those apply well to polar bears in the wild.


you only need to be around it.

Surely it doesnt apply as well in the wild as it does with pets. But it applies nonetheless
Ah, but surely if you've been lurking long enough you know that ignorance never stops people from posting here! (I offer up myself as Exhibit A)

:)

I kid, of course.



Nope. Not kidding. :)
awww man...the blog's gone back charts and graphs and all that analytical discussion.

Going to dig in the dirt. See ya'll later. :)
Quoting blsealevel:
I'm no Hydrologist, so I can't say if this article
I read from the Examiner is even valid enough to put any thought to it but it certenly is intreasting.

Link


Although generally-speaking it is a decent article, I can tell you from the perspective of a hydrologist who forecasts operationally for these areas there are some inaccuracies.
Our tropical wave is now over eastern Venezuela.

Quoting aquak9:
the pets don't get to go- we covered that yesterday


yeah pottery wont take them :(
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah pottery wont take them :(
he would if you gave him more rum
I bet pottery would eat them though.
Quoting Levi32:
TCHP in the Caribbean has skyrocketed over the last week due to the absence of trade winds and clouds.



Thanks Levi!

Miss. River at Baton Rouge




Quoting Kahlest:
Been lurking here for a while, learning lots from you guys but don't really feel like I know enough to speak yet.


...that hasn't stopped the vast majority of us...
but don't really feel like I know enough to speak yet.

Nor has it stopped the shower curtain boy.
Quoting HurricaneDevo:
did they do sst maps in 1950?


Yes.

Ask Grothar if they did sst maps in 1950 BC.
It looks like 98W is organizing at a good rate.

Link
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Ask Grothar if they did sst maps in 1950 BC.

Yes. That's the same year NHC issued its first TWO:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Ask Grothar if they did sst maps in 1950 BC.


Too late. I already posted it. I just had it lying around with some other papyrus notes.
Here is an article which some of you might find interesting. I know Levi would like it. Shows you what we had to put up with in the old days.


Link
Quoting Grothar:
Here is an article which some of you might find interesting. I know Levi would like it. Shows you what we had to put up with in the old days.


Link


Indeed. I'm surprised they only issued 9 ships.
Quoting Grothar:
Here is an article which some of you might find interesting. I know Levi would like it. Shows you what we had to put up with in the old days.


Link


Wow... talk about old school. Sheesh, why didn't you just use one of these? :)

The Weather Rock

Courtesy of GeoJono on Flickr
Quoting MrMixon:


Wow... talk about old school. Sheesh, why didn't you just use one of these? :)

The Weather Rock


The weather rock is as accurate as these number of hurricane predictions.
nice to see some sense and sensibility return to the blog.

ok, about that rapture thingy- it's supposta happen, when?
Quoting aquak9:
nice to see some sense and sensibility return to the blog.

ok, about that rapture thingy- it's supposta happen, when?


8 CDT tonight. hehe
Quoting aquak9:
nice to see some sense and sensibility return to the blog.

ok, about that rapture thingy- it's supposta happen, when?


Saturday @ 6P...After Party @ my house...
Quoting aquak9:
nice to see some sense and sensibility return to the blog.

ok, about that rapture thingy- it's supposta happen, when?


Did Jane Austen join the blog too?
Quoting Patrap:
yeah,yeah,,12-14,4-9,3-6,Blah,yak,blah.


Where and when and How Big?

When they get to dat point,,I'll give it some credence, till then it's all chest thumping to me.


Prepare today and be ahead of the call when it comes.

Food fer thought.


..We dont like Spam
well you see pat, they must conduct this chest thumping in order to reach your desired "where and when and how big"

lol

in all seriousness though, these predictions serve one goal, to protect the people. This is done in two different ways, the first being, it directly informs the public on how active the season will be, and the second being, it allows NWS to make better forecasts in the future.
Quoting presslord:


Saturday @ 6P...After Party @ my house...


I'll be there Press !!
Quoting PcolaDan:


Did Jane Austen join the blog too?


no, but that's an idea.

Naaaahhh...I could never be somebody else. Ya'll would recognize my style of writing immediately. I'd be busted like a blow-up tropical fish balloon.
Quoting MrMixon:


Wow... talk about old school. Sheesh, why didn't you just use one of these? :)

The Weather Rock

Courtesy of GeoJono on Flickr


I wish I could roll on the floor and laugh, but I couldn't get up. That is funny.
Quoting presslord:


Saturday @ 6P...After Party @ my house...


6pm EST? Will it go across the country like new years eve, or happen all at once? cause I could like get a really fast airplane, and get raptured over and over as I flew west.

Press- what kinda food does one serve at a rapture party?
Quoting Levi32:


Indeed. I'm surprised they only issued 9 ships.


Thought you would like it. They did some job, especially during World War II. A lot of people put a lot of effort over the years to get where we are. All we do is click a button and we have everything we need. They really worked at it.
Good evening guys.

Quoting aquak9:


6pm EST? Will it go across the country like new years eve, or happen all at once? cause I could like get a really fast airplane, and get raptured over and over as I flew west.

Press- what kinda food does one serve at a rapture party?


Fast food, I would imagine. Good thing about it, you don't have to clean up afterwards.
Quoting aquak9:


6pm EST? Will it go across the country like new years eve, or happen all at once? cause I could like get a really fast airplane, and get raptured over and over as I flew west.

Press- what kinda food does one serve at a rapture party?


it will happen at 6 pm in each time zone...sort of a Rolling Rapture...seems to me the only appropriate food is left overs...
Quoting DestinJeff:
0-0-0

It's an obviously solid forecast, what with the End of Times and all.


I am so tired of these End of Times. I have been through so many of these through the centuries.
Quoting PityDAFool:
You all a bunch of suckers! you all be worrying about the end of times. End of times? FOOLS!

Hurricane season is just around the CORNER! It will be here faster than you can get fried chicken at a drive thru!

I pity the fools who ain't PREPARED!


ok then..........
Quoting aquak9:


6pm EST? Will it go across the country like new years eve, or happen all at once? cause I could like get a really fast airplane, and get raptured over and over as I flew west.

Press- what kinda food does one serve at a rapture party?


Well ........................

Soul food, of course.
Hey, Greetings Grothar (and all you others too--)

It RAINING here all over the place.
Nice little Tropical Wave has brought us some dribbles all day long.
The sound of water falling into a cistern at 7:00pm is a lovely noise.
Quoting Grothar:


I am so tired of these End of Times. I have been through so many of these through the centuries.


You don't have Miami here to post Satellite pictures of the Earth.
Great. Now I'm craving fried chicken.

I wonder if we will be able to see the rapture on radar. Or maybe the SPC will come out with some brimstone and hellfire maps.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
I bet pottery would eat them though.

Right now, I would eat just about anyone. er , I mean anything....
Quoting aquak9:
Great. Now I'm craving fried chicken.

I wonder if we will be able to see the rapture on radar. Or maybe the SPC will come out with some brimstone and hellfire maps.


'sposed to be accompanied by severe earthquakes
Quoting Kahlest:
Been lurking here for a while, learning lots from you guys but don't really feel like I know enough to speak yet.


why? it hasn't stopped everyone else. lol


Geesh. I was planning to buy a Powerball ticket for Saturday but guess that would be useless with the end of times and all. I AM however prepared for hurricanes!
Quoting PcolaDan:


Well ........................

Soul food, of course.

Brilliant!
Quoting pottery:
Hey, Greetings Grothar (and all you others too--)

It RAINING here all over the place.
Nice little Tropical Wave has brought us some dribbles all day long.
The sound of water falling into a cistern at 7:00pm is a lovely noise.


Hey, pot. Been away for a bit. Wasn't able to get on at all. We are still very, very dry. Not a drop. Hope you have been well.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You don't have Miami here to post Satellite pictures of the Earth.


Yeah, where is that little twit, anyway. How you doing Tropical?
Quoting aquak9:
Great. Now I'm craving fried chicken.

I wonder if we will be able to see the rapture on radar. Or maybe the SPC will come out with some brimstone and hellfire maps.
*slinks away to look for Total Precipitable Rapture (TPR) plots and read up on rapticity*
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, where is that little twit, anyway. How you doing Tropical?


good, how about you?
...the way I know all this is...I was in West Virginia over the weekend....
then the rest of us will suffer natural disasters, war, famine, pestilence and venereal disease for 5 months...

isn't this already occurring?
Quoting WaterWitch11:
then the rest of us will suffer natural disasters, war, famine, pestilence and venereal disease for 5 months...

isn't this already occurring?


Not to me or anyone I know.
Quoting twincomanche:


Not to me or anyone I know.


Well war.
so do the FOOLS get picked up first?
What's this with all this idle chatter when we have an invest in the West Pacific????

Quoting aquak9:
so do the FOOLS get picked up first?


we can hope
Quoting presslord:


yea....it's not gonna be that bad, really...the biggest difference will be the absence of some of the more annoying among us...


then i look forward to it
Quoting DestinJeff:


i think "idle banter" was the previously agreed upon phrase that pays. sorry.


'banal idiocy' is the phrase you're looking for
Quoting presslord:
...the way I know all this is...I was in West Virginia over the weekend....


You were in the Virginias? How was the weather there.
Do you think I could barter a reprieve on the Rapture? I kinda wanna stick around if there are gunna be extra-intense hurricanes ....
Quoting Grothar:


You were in the Virginias? How was the weather there.


thank you for so cleverly making that point....it was rainy...
Quoting presslord:


thank you for so cleverly making that point....it was rainy...


Sorry, press. I couldn't resist getting in a cheap shot. After all, I only have two more days.
Quoting DestinJeff:


warm and moist.


The weather, or VD?
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, press. I couldn't resist getting in a cheap shot. After all, I only have two more days.


don't be so sure you're gettin' in pal
Quoting presslord:


don't be so sure you're gettin' in pal


Guess I'll be around for a while.
Quoting DestinJeff:


warm and moist.
haha
Grothar, you HAVE been around for awhile.
Quoting DestinJeff:


i think "idle banter" was the previously agreed upon phrase that pays. sorry.


Sorry. I haven't spoken English in about a month, so I slip a little now and then.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Grothar, you HAVE been around for awhile.


You have no idea. LOL
Quoting presslord:


'banal idiocy' is the phrase you're looking for



LOLOL.......I am so....laughing ...ya krazy bunch!!
Quoting presslord:


'sposed to be accompanied by severe earthquakes
yep so they say a big one too a 10.2 offshore of new zealand sometime near 6:00pm or just after
what did new zealand ever do to anyone?
Quoting DestinJeff:


practicing speaking in tongues for your impending eternal damnation?


Too late. It already happened.
Quoting aquak9:
what did new zealand ever do to anyone?



wrong place at the wrong time
Has anyone heard from Futuremet?
Quoting Grothar:
Has anyone heard from Futuremet?


Not seen him.
Homemade dams holding back flood watersLink
Quoting Grothar:
Has anyone heard from Futuremet?


Havent seen Futuremet, but Tornadodude stopped by last night. He is finally a real "chaser" He's with MIDSCAR....I watch them on Tornadovideos.Net. A good team to be with.
NOAA predicts below normal Eastern Pacific hurricane season

May 19, 2011

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center today announced that climate conditions point to a below normal hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific this year. The outlook calls for a 5 percent probability of an above normal season, a 25 percent probability of a near normal season and a 70 percent probability of a below normal season.

Allowing for forecast uncertainties, seasonal hurricane forecasters estimate a 70 percent chance of 9 to 15 named storms, which includes 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which 1 to 3 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 to 16 named storms, with eight to nine becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, with peak activity from July through September.

The main climate factors influencing this year’s Eastern Pacific outlook are:

* Ongoing conditions, such as increased wind shear, that have been suppressing eastern Pacific hurricane seasons since 1995, and
* A high likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) during the peak months (July-September) of the season, but with lingering La Niña impacts into the summer.

“Regardless of this outlook, NOAA urges people in the Eastern Pacific to prepare for the 2011 hurricane season and remain vigilant throughout the season – it only takes one hurricane to cause a lot of damage and loss of life,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, part of the U.S. National Weather Service.
hey anyone notice a spin approaching Jamaica??
NOAA expects a below normal Central Pacific
hurricane season

May 18, 2011

NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center today announced that projected climate conditions point to a below normal hurricane season in the Central Pacific Basin this year.

NOAA issued its outlook at a news conference today to urge Hawaii residents to be fully prepared for the onset of the hurricane season, which begins on June 1.

“Now is the time to prepare for the hurricane season in the central Pacific,” said Ray Tanabe, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, part of the U.S. National Weather Service. “Last year we had a quiet season, but it’s definitely not time to let our guard down.”

The seasonal hurricane outlook is produced in collaboration with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. For 2011, the outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of a below normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near normal season, and a five percent chance of an above normal season. We expect 2-3 tropical cyclones to affect the central Pacific this season. An average season has 4-5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
There is one person that I haven't seen here for a while,and that is Drakoen.Hopefully,he comes soon,although Levi,Hurricane23,TropicalAnalystwx13 and others do a good job doing analysis of the factors.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Havent seen Futuremet, but Tornadodude stopped by last night. He is finally a real "chaser" He's with MIDSCAR....I watch them on Tornadovideos.Net. A good team to be with.


TD was one of the first people with whom I spoke when I started on the blog. I wish him luck.
Quoting Grothar:


TD was one of the first people with whom I spoke when I started on the blog. I wish him luck.


and YOU were the first person to quote and respond to me...how bout that!
Quoting presslord:
Homemade dams holding back flood watersLink


Wow... never seen anything like that.
Quoting presslord:



wrong place at the wrong time
we already got the sunday morning headlines ready just in case lol


this is not real this is a parody
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


and YOU were the first person to quote and respond to me...how bout that!


For real?
This blog is Hysterical tonight !
I Love it.

I'm in and out for a bit, as I am attempting to turn a Filet of Swordfish into something that is edible...
It's in the Grill right now.
Smelling good.
And while we await THAT Rapture, CHEERS!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
There is one person that I haven't seen here for a while,and that is Drakoen.Hopefully,he comes soon,although Levi,Hurricane23,TropicalAnalystwx13 and others do a good job doing analysis of the factors.


He usually drops in when there is something going on. I guess he doesn't go in for idle banter. I really enjoy when he and Levi exchange opinions. It is like watching a tennis match. Both very bright.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


and YOU were the first person to quote and respond to me...how bout that!

It shows that you have Great Fortitude, to have stayed after THAT experience...
Quoting pottery:
This blog is Hysterical tonight !
I Love it.

I'm in and out for a bit, as I am attempting to turn a Filet of Swordfish into something that is edible...
It's in the Grill right now.
Smelling good.
And while we await THAT Rapture, CHEERS!


I hope you removed the "sword" part. Turning that on a grill could be dangerous (and painful)
A guy over at Daily Kos had a great idea: we can all pitch in and buy a bunch of blow-up dolls, fill them full of helium, dress them up in Sunday clothes, and release them from various locations around town at Zero Hour. (Maybe to strains of "Up, Up, & Away".)

Artist's conception:
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

We can even strap smoke canisters to some of them so they'll look like slow-moving rockets. Rapture rockets.

Anybody with me?
Quoting Grothar:


He usually drops in when there is something going on. I guess he doesn't go in for idle banter. I really enjoy when he and Levi exchange opinions. It is like watching a tennis match.b oth very brightB.


Amen to that!
I like Drak, but he has a tendency to let his ego get the best of him. Always has a quality analysis however :)
Quoting pottery:

It shows that you have Great Fortitude, to have stayed after THAT experience...


Yep, had lurked since 2005, and finaly got up the nerve to post something, and Grothar came thru....made me feel welcome, that's why I'm so partial to the ole goat!!
Quoting Neapolitan:
A guy over at Daily Kos had a great idea: we can all pitch in and buy a bunch of blow-up dolls, fill them full of helium, dress them up in our Sunday best, and release them from various locations around town at Zero Hour. (Maybe to strains of "Up, Up, & Away".)

Artist's conception:
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

We can even strap smoke canisters to some of them so they'll look like slow-moving rockets. Rapture rockets.

Anybody with me? ;-)

I LIKE it!
And it will be great for business in those places that sell inflatible ladies and stuff...
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Yep, had lurked since 2005, and finaly got up the nerve to post something, and Grothar came thru....made me feel welcome, that's why I'm so partial to the ole goat!!

LOL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep so they say a big one too a 10.2 offshore of new zealand sometime near 6:00pm or just after


i couldn't even begin to fathom a 10.2
Quoting Neapolitan:
A guy over at Daily Kos had a great idea: we can all pitch in and buy a bunch of blow-up dolls, fill them full of helium, dress them up in Sunday clothes, and release them from various locations around town at Zero Hour. (Maybe to strains of "Up, Up, & Away".)

Artist's conception:
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

We can even strap smoke canisters to some of them so they'll look like slow-moving rockets. Rapture rockets.

Anybody with me?


I can see us all going into the...uh...store and buying one.

"Really, a bunch of us are going to fill them with helium and let them fly."

"Uh huh, sure"

"No, REALLY"

"Yea, whatever."

"SERIOUSLY, I wouldn't buy something like this otherwise."

"Whatever you say, just pay for it, okay."

"NO, REALLY, I MEAN IT!!!!! Ahhhhh, never mind. Wait, is that a CAMERA an the wall there??? AM I BEING FILMED???? Uhhhh, I gotta go."
Quoting Grothar:


He usually drops in when there is something going on. I guess he doesn't go in for idle banter. I really enjoy when he and Levi exchange opinions. It is like watching a tennis match. Both very bright.


Yes,during my lurking time in the past two years,those debates have been very educational for those of us who dont have the expertise.
279. DDR
From the Trinidad & Tobago met office

OFFICIAL STATEMENT

Following a very productive (rainfall wise) early 2011 dry season which eventually normalized, the 2011 wet season has started as if on schedule, approximately five (5) days after its last year’s counterpart.

And we are in for what could be a rather interesting wet season!
More floating cars..

Situation Update No. 1
On 19.05.2011 at 16:01 GMT+2

Torrential rain has caused flash floods in southern Spain, killing an elderly woman and sending cars floating down the streets of one town. National Spanish Television on Thursday showed a river of water gushing through the streets of Canete de las Torres town in the Andalusia region and cars piled on top of one another. About 150 houses were evacuated, and TV footage showed people sweeping water out of their damaged homes. The body of an 85-year-old woman was found in a stream in the town hours after the heavy rains began Wednesday. The regional government says the south-central province of Cordoba was the worst hit.
Quoting WaterWitch11:


i couldn't even begin to fathom a 10.2


If it is off the coast of New Zealand, that would be about 16,000 fathoms.
282. DDR
The rainy is here thanks to that Tropical wave,just 6 mm at my location but its just the beginning.
Quoting PcolaDan:


I can see us all going into the...uh...store and buying one.

"Really, a bunch of us are going to fill them with helium and let them fly."

"Uh huh, sure"

"No, REALLY"

"Yea, whatever."

"SERIOUSLY, I wouldn't buy something like this otherwise."

"Whatever you say, just pay for it, okay."

"NO, REALLY, I MEAN IT!!!!! Ahhhhh, never mind. Wait, is that a CAMERA an the wall there??? AM I BEING FILMED???? Uhhhh, I gotta go."


What would be more embarrassing is if you walk in one of them and they say, "Hi, Dan"
Quoting Grothar:


What would be more embarrassing is if you walk in one of them and they say, "Hi, Dan"


THEY SAID THEY WOULD DESTROY THE TAPE!!!!!

Hi Gro. :)
Quoting Skyepony:
More floating cars..

Situation Update No. 1
On 19.05.2011 at 16:01 GMT+2

Torrential rain has caused flash floods in southern Spain, killing an elderly woman and sending cars floating down the streets of one town. National Spanish Television on Thursday showed a river of water gushing through the streets of Canete de las Torres town in the Andalusia region and cars piled on top of one another. About 150 houses were evacuated, and TV footage showed people sweeping water out of their damaged homes. The body of an 85-year-old woman was found in a stream in the town hours after the heavy rains began Wednesday. The regional government says the south-central province of Cordoba was the worst hit.


Doesn't PlazaRed live in Southern Spain? Hope he is OK. Spain has been experiencing some strange weather.
Quoting PcolaDan:


THEY SAID THEY WOULD DESTROY THE TAPE!!!!!

Hi Gro. :)


Well, I heard 18 1/2 minutes were missing from it. LOL

Quoting DDR:
The rainy is here thanks to that Tropical wave,just 6 mm at my location but its just the beginning.


It doesn't look like much, but they can drop a lot of rain sometimes. Hope it moves our way.

Quoting Grothar:


Doesn't PlazaRed live in Southern Spain? Hope he is OK. Spain has been experiencing some strange weather.


Maybe he'll show up with a story. Nothing on youtube yet other than preparing for the flood. Those flooded must be cut off still.


Japan has declared 98W a TD. Navy isn't there yet.


Quoting Grothar:


Well, I heard 18 1/2 minutes were missing from it. LOL



whoa, I'm impressed.

Hey do they have blow-up pets, too?
Quoting aquak9:


whoa, I'm impressed.

Hey do they have blow-up pets, too?

This is gettin' kinkay!!
Quoting Grothar:


Well, I heard 18 1/2 minutes were missing from it. LOL



I am not a crook.
deleted.
Quoting PcolaDan:


I am not a crook.


HA. I knew you would get it.
Quoting Grothar:


Doesn't PlazaRed live in Southern Spain? Hope he is OK. Spain has been experiencing some strange weather.


Think you may be right, and I think it may be the Andalusia region.
I am really worried about GeoffWPB. I've been away and looked back at some old blogs. He hasn't been on for a long time. Anyone heard from him? He is always on.
Quoting eddy12:
The world ends saturday I better go find some hookers and blow oh yea and whiskey to wash out the taste of weed and hooker spit
is that one of them blow up hookers you plan on picking up
what ever you gotta do at this point sounds like
Man...I'm gonna be at work saturday till 11pm EST. Wonder if they'll pay me for my full shift.
Linked to this BBC article just before i came here and got distracted:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-134 57182
Oh yeah. It has to do with sea floor movement recorded after the 'quake off Japan.
Quoting Skyepony:


Maybe he'll show up with a story. Nothing on youtube yet other than preparing for the flood. Those flooded must be cut off still.


Japan has declared 98W a TD. Navy isn't there yet.




It looks like it is really getting strong fast. I posted the first image in post 220

ycd- page not found :(
that's a bad post, Eddy.
Quoting Grothar:


It looks like it is really getting strong fast. I posted the first image in post 220



Guam's NWS issued a Special Statement:

Link
Quoting presslord:

"Rapture"

Toe to toe
Dancing very close
Barely breathing
Almost comatose
Wall to wall
People hypnotised
And they're stepping lightly
Hang each night in Rapture

Back to back
Sacrailiac
Spineless movement
And a wild attack

Face to face
Sadly solitude
And it's finger popping
Twenty-four hour shopping in Rapture

Fab Five Freddie told me everybody's high
DJ's spinnin' are savin' my mind
Flash is fast, Flash is cool
Francois sez fas, Flashe' no do
And you don't stop, sure shot
Go out to the parking lot
And you get in your car and you drive real far
And you drive all night and then you see a light
And it comes right down and lands on the ground
And out comes a man from Mars
And you try to run but he's got a gun
And he shoots you dead and he eats your head
And then you're in the man from Mars
You go out at night, eatin' cars
You eat Cadillacs, Lincolns too
Mercuries and Subarus
And you don't stop, you keep on eatin' cars
Then, when there's no more cars
You go out at night and eat up bars where the people meet
Face to face, dance cheek to cheek
One to one, man to man
Dance toe to toe
Don't move too slow, 'cause the man from Mars
Is through with cars, he's eatin' bars
Yeah, wall to wall, door to door, hall to hall
He's gonna eat 'em all
Rapture, be pure
Take a tour, through the sewer
Don't strain your brain, paint a train
You'll be singin' in the rain
I said don't stop, do punk rock

Well now you see what you wanna be
Just have your party on TV
'Cause the man from Mars won't eat up bars when the TV's on
And now he's gone back up to space
Where he won't have a hassle with the human race
And you hip-hop, and you don't stop
Just blast off, sure shot
'Cause the man from Mars stopped eatin' cars and eatin' bars
And now he only eats guitars, get up!



Love Blondie.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Guam's NWS issued a Special Statement:

Link


Those are small island, too! That really blew up fast.

Quoting Grothar:
I am really worried about GeoffWPB. I've been away and looked back at some old blogs. He hasn't been on for a long time. Anyone heard from him? He is always on.
I think I saw him sometime last month.
There are now only 2 shopping Days Left till the Apocalypse.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I think I saw him sometime last month.


Long time for a regular to be away.
Earthquake Information (Information on seismic intensity at each site)
Issued at 09:51 JST 20 May 2011

Occurred at(JST)Latitude(degree)Longitude(degree)Depth Magnitude Region Name
09:46 JST 20 May 2011 35.8N 141.3E 30 km 5.8 Ibaraki-ken Oki

Quoting Grothar:


Long time for a regular to be away.
It's possible he's just busy.
Quoting aquak9:
Man...I'm gonna be at work saturday till 11pm EST. Wonder if they'll pay me for my full shift.


I dunno aqua...but maybe you'll get a t-shirt

Quoting aquak9:


whoa, I'm impressed.

Hey do they have blow-up pets, too?


I wonder if Pottery would take those...
6.0 just off Tokyo s east coast,this ones gonna cause damage imo
Quoting presslord:


I dunno aqua...but maybe you'll get a t-shirt


I want one. I'm a survivor. ; )
Quoting PcolaDan:
Earthquake Information (Information on seismic intensity at each site)
Issued at 09:51 JST 20 May 2011

Occurred at(JST)Latitude(degree)Longitude(degree)Depth Magnitude Region Name
09:46 JST 20 May 2011 35.8N 141.3E 30 km 5.8 Ibaraki-ken Oki


that was only about 16 miles deep, offa the southern-more end of the island, too.

press- I ain't goin' there.... :)
Magnitude
6.0
Date-Time
Friday, May 20, 2011 at 00:46:16 UTC
Friday, May 20, 2011 at 09:46:16 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
35.736°N, 140.981°E
Depth
26.2 km (16.3 miles)
Region
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances
82 km (50 miles) SSE of Mito, Honshu, Japan
111 km (68 miles) E of TOKYO, Japan
126 km (78 miles) ENE of Yokohama, Honshu, Japan
133 km (82 miles) SE of Utsunomiya, Honshu, Japan
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 13.4 km (8.3 miles); depth +/- 5.9 km (3.7 miles)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I wonder if Pottery would take those...

Only if they have been deflated, fed, and are house trained.



A dynamically-based method for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis
location in the Atlantic sector using global model products
Zhuo Wang,1 Michael T. Montgomery,1 and Timothy J. Dunkerton1,2



A real-time forecast method is developed for prediction
of the tropical cyclogenesis location over the Atlantic using
global model operational products. The method is based on
the marsupial theory for tropical cyclogenesis proposed in a
recent observational study. A moisture front is usually found
ahead of the precursor wave trough, which separates the
relatively dry air outside of the wave pouch (a region of
closed circulation) from the relatively moist air inside the
wave pouch. The propagation speed of the pouch can be
determined by tracking the propagation of this moisture
front, and the intersection of the critical surface and the
trough axis pinpoints the predicted genesis location. Using
the global model operational products the genesis location
can be predicted up to three days in advance with an error
less than 200 km, which can provide useful guidance for
forecasters and flight planning. Citation: Wang, Z., M. T.
Montgomery, and T. J. Dunkerton (2009), A dynamically-based
method for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis location in the
Atlantic sector using global model products, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
36, L03801, doi:10.1029/2008GL035586.
Quoting pottery:

Only if they have been deflated, fed, and are house trained.


Well, as long as you promise to blow them back up as soon as you get them. They don't like being flat much.
Quoting PcolaDan:
Earthquake Information (Information on seismic intensity at each site)
Issued at 09:51 JST 20 May 2011

Occurred at(JST)Latitude(degree)Longitude(degree)Depth Magnitude Region Name
09:46 JST 20 May 2011 35.8N 141.3E 30 km 5.8 Ibaraki-ken Oki
. Dang, signs of the upcoming Rapture?
Quoting Patrap:



A dynamically-based method for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis
location in the Atlantic sector using global model products
Zhuo Wang,1 Michael T. Montgomery,1 and Timothy J. Dunkerton1,2



A real-time forecast method is developed for prediction
of the tropical cyclogenesis location over the Atlantic using
global model operational products. The method is based on
the marsupial theory for tropical cyclogenesis proposed in a
recent observational study. A moisture front is usually found
ahead of the precursor wave trough, which separates the
relatively dry air outside of the wave pouch (a region of
closed circulation) from the relatively moist air inside the
wave pouch. The propagation speed of the pouch can be
determined by tracking the propagation of this moisture
front, and the intersection of the critical surface and the
trough axis pinpoints the predicted genesis location. Using
the global model operational products the genesis location
can be predicted up to three days in advance with an error
less than 200 km, which can provide useful guidance for
forecasters and flight planning. Citation: Wang, Z., M. T.
Montgomery, and T. J. Dunkerton (2009), A dynamically-based
method for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis location in the
Atlantic sector using global model products, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
36, L03801, doi:10.1029/2008GL035586.

That's fascinating!
Printed it for closer reading later.
Really looks like they have come up with a wonderful piece of research conclusion.
And if it stands up under further scrutiny, it will be a big assist to forecasters and everyone else too.
Great work by them.
Quoting hurricaneben:
. Dang, signs of the upcoming Rapture?


In this case, it is spelled rupture, as in, the earths crust.:)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Well, as long as you promise to blow them back up as soon as you get them. They don't like being flat much.

Er, I make no such promise.
I mean, how do I explain the fact that my house is swarming with inflatable crocodiles, rodents of all descriptions, and dogs, cats and bunnyrabits and panthers when my wife gets back ?
She already has some misgivings....
Quoting pottery:

Er, I make no such promise.
I mean, how do I explain the fact that my house is swarming with inflatable crocodiles, rodents of all descriptions, and dogs, cats and bunnyrabits and panthers when my wife gets back ?
She already has some misgivings....


True, but the fact there is no feeding and no cleaning up after them must be a huge plus.
The storm that's been snowing, raining, hailing, fogging, misting, and graupeling on us for the past couple days is spinning off some nasty stuff in Kansas. Watch out folks... I think this system has a bad attitude.

Here's proof that it will happen saturday:

1. According to Camping, the number five equals "atonement", the number ten equals "completeness", and the number seventeen equals "heaven".

2. Christ is said to have hung on the cross on April 1, 33 AD. The time between April 1, 33 AD and April 1, 2011 is 1,978 years.

3. If 1,978 is multiplied by 365.2422 days (the number of days in a solar year, not to be confused with the lunar year), the result is 722,449.

4. The time between April 1 and May 21 is 51 days.

5. 51 added to 722,449 is 722,500.

6.(5 x 10 x 17)^2 or (atonement x completeness x heaven)2 also equals 722,500.

How bout that Nonbelievers!

... and speaking of Japan earthquakes.

Japan Earthquake Shifted Seafloor by 79 Feet
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Here's proof that it will happen saturday:

1. According to Camping, the number five equals "atonement", the number ten equals "completeness", and the number seventeen equals "heaven".

2. Christ is said to have hung on the cross on April 1, 33 AD. The time between April 1, 33 AD and April 1, 2011 is 1,978 years.

3. If 1,978 is multiplied by 365.2422 days (the number of days in a solar year, not to be confused with the lunar year), the result is 722,449.

4. The time between April 1 and May 21 is 51 days.

5. 51 added to 722,449 is 722,500.

6.(5 × 10 × 17)2 or (atonement × completeness × heaven)2 also equals 722,500.

How bout that Nonbelievers!



...well....I gotta say....I was pretty darned skeptical...but I can't argue with this sorta clear logic.....
There will be a rapture the Bible promises it however we will never know the day or the hour that the rapture will take place. The Bible states that no man will know the day or the hour. Why does this change with family radio?
Quoting presslord:


...well....I gotta say....I was pretty darned skeptical...but I can't argue with this sorta clear logic.....

With that said I guess I won't need the shirt.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


True, but the fact there is no feeding and no cleaning up after them must be a huge plus.

True. I had not considered that.
But still. I really think that you should go with the Neapolitan Option.
A couple canisters of co2 and you could send all those homeless critters into oblivion. Where they will be much happier, you know.
And who knows where they may end up? Think of it as a kind of Educational Lottery for them. And, think of the reaction of the people who wake up and find that their yards are 4 feet deep in inflatable Labradors and stuff.
It will be a grand experience for them too.
Quoting Patrap:
There are now only 2 shopping Days Left till the Apocalypse.


Buy The Book and after you understand the truth it wont matter when "it" happens.
You will be safe every second.
Quoting presslord:


...well....I gotta say....I was pretty darned skeptical...but I can't argue with this sorta clear logic.....

Yeah. Me too. Your beach party still 'on'?
I think I'll be there, in spirits.
Quoting Grothar:


He usually drops in when there is something going on. I guess he doesn't go in for idle banter. I really enjoy when he and Levi exchange opinions. It is like watching a tennis match. Both very bright.
very true
You guys are hilarious!!! I love it!!!

I always enjoy this time on the blog, pre-hurricane before the crazys come out.

My husband can't understand how I can be reading a weather blog and laughing so hard.

Keep it up!
344. Jax82
Quoting aquak9:
Man...I'm gonna be at work saturday till 11pm EST. Wonder if they'll pay me for my full shift.


Well, it truly will be the 'graveyard shift' thanks to Rapture.
Quoting pottery:

Yeah. Me too. Your beach party still 'on'?
I think I'll be there, in spirits.


yup...we have a bottle of rum with your name on it....it's a very big bottle
Quoting kimoskee:
You guys are hilarious!!! I love it!!!

I always enjoy this time on the blog, pre-hurricane before the crazys come out.

My husband can't understand how I can be reading a weather blog and laughing so hard.

Keep it up!


Maybe I should have said pre-rapture!
Quoting Jax82:


Well, it truly will be a the 'graveyard shift' thanks to Rapture.


+1 hahaha
Quoting pottery:

True. I had not considered that.
But still. I really think that you should go with the Neapolitan Option.
A couple canisters of co2 and you could send all those homeless critters into oblivion. Where they will be much happier, you know.
And who knows where they may end up? Think of it as a kind of Educational Lottery for them. And, think of the reaction of the people who wake up and find that their yards are 4 feet deep in inflatable Labradors and stuff.
It will be a grand experience for them too.


True, I can't think of anything more enjoyable than 500 inflatable animals in my yard when I wake up.
Quoting kimoskee:
You guys are hilarious!!! I love it!!!

I always enjoy this time on the blog, pre-hurricane before the crazys come out.

My husband can't understand how I can be reading a weather blog and laughing so hard.

Keep it up!

Lucky you.
My wife is in the UK. I wont have anyone's hand to hold as I lift off.
(I am assuming that I am joining the Throng, you see).
Come to think of it, I am pretty sure that in the UK they dont even know we are about to achieve Nirvana on Saturday.
Their loss, I'm sure.
Quoting presslord:


yup...we have a bottle of rum with your name on it....it's a very big bottle


will there be coke as well? nothing better than some rum&coke on the beach watching the world end.
Quoting kimoskee:
You guys are hilarious!!! I love it!!!

I always enjoy this time on the blog, pre-hurricane before the crazys come out.

My husband can't understand how I can be reading a weather blog and laughing so hard.

Keep it up!


Same here -- I love the time in between the AGW debaters and the hurricane crazies.

It's always why I peek in here a month or two early.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


True, I can't think of anything more enjoyable than 500 inflatable animals in my yard when I wake up.

Your'e very weird....
Have you spoken to anyone about this?

heheheheh
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


will there be coke as well? nothing better than some rum&coke on the beach watching the world end.


it would greatly help me preserve what little there is left of my reputation....if you would capitalize the word 'Coke'...
Quoting kimoskee:
You guys are hilarious!!! I love it!!!

I always enjoy this time on the blog, pre-hurricane before the crazys come out.

My husband can't understand how I can be reading a weather blog and laughing so hard.

Keep it up!


I can relate to that exact feeling...lol...and my husband thinks the same thing.....and it is so much more than a weather blog, ya know, and without all the different personality types on here...it would be a real dud of a blog. You learn and laugh..all good :)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


will there be coke as well? nothing better than some rum&coke on the beach watching the world end.

I'll bring the Limbo bar, if someboddy brings the Ukeleles and the Hula Girls..
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


will there be coke as well? nothing better than some rum&coke on the beach watching the world end.

Well said.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I can relate to that exact feeling...lol...and my husband thinks the same thing.....and it is so much more than a weather blog, ya know, and without all the different personality types on here...it would be a real dud of a blog. You learn and laugh..all good :)


my wife thinks I'm surfin' porn sites

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
 Why does this change with family radio?
Apparently, adherents to this prophecy believe that Matthew 24:36 was applicable only to the people of the time.
Quoting presslord:


it would greatly help me preserve what little there is left of my reputation....if you would capitalize the word 'Coke'...

CokaCola, I think they meant.
Oh, and thanks for the Incentive.
What?
No comment?
What book did you think I was talking about?

http://books.google.com/books?id=4mcT7A371xQC&pri ntsec=frontcover&img=1&zoom=1&l=220


Quoting spathy:


Buy The Book and after you understand the truth it wont matter when "it" happens.
You will be safe every second.


I hate to Mock such a serious subject.
Ya never know!
But some things are too good to resist!
Quoting pottery:

Your'e very weird....
Have you spoken to anyone about this?

heheheheh


oh pottery you drove me into that one, and sorry press will there be any Coca-Cola present?
Quoting presslord:


my wife thinks I'm surfin' porn sites


LOLOL,...Lowdy, then dont let her see the shower curtain...:O
Quoting presslord:


my wife thinks I'm surfin' porn sites

This is far more fun.
And at the end of the day, you get to learn a few good things as well.
Some seem to need a FB account in a bad way.

porn is so old school
weather is better
A raining night!!!
Quoting spathy:
What?
No comment?
What book did you think I was talking about?

http://books.google.com/books?id=4mcT7A371xQC& ;pri ntsec=frontcover&img=1&zoom=1&l=220




I hate to Mock such a serious subject.
Ya never know!
But some things are too good to resist!

Thanks for making that clear.
Zombie Protection is gonna be all the rage come Sunday.
Send $1:00 for a free copy of my last Thesis called "zombies I have known, and how I cooked them'.
Satisfaction promised. But no guarantee I'm afraid. Time has run out, you understand?
Where do I send a dollar?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


oh pottery you drove me into that one, and sorry press will there be any Coca-Cola present?

Sorry, I couldnt resist. :):))
Quoting geepy86:
Where do I send a dollar?

To Portlight. But make it 10.
:)
Quoting pottery:

To Portlight. But make it 10.
:)

done and done. : )
Quoting pottery:

To Portlight. But make it 10.
:)


we'll make that two big bottles of rum
Invest 98W is about to pull a TS Chris. The surface circulation is about to emerge naked in the NW quadrant:

Quoting pottery:

Thanks for making that clear.
Zombie Protection is gonna be all the rage come Sunday.
Send $1:00 for a free copy of my last Thesis called "zombies I have known, and how I cooked them'.
Satisfaction promised. But no guarantee I'm afraid. Time has run out, you understand?


Thanks Pott.
I did to leave it out there for just a bit for dramatic effect.
But thank God it looks like the subject is turning back to WEATHER :O)
Quoting Levi32:
Invest 98W is about to pull a TS Chris. The surface circulation is about to emerge naked in the NW quadrant:



It's a shame it looked so promising.
For those who have not seen it, check Barefootontherocks blog.
Everything you ever needed to know about the flood control systems and whats going on in NOLA.

click 'blog index' at the bottom of this page to find it.
Quoting presslord:


we'll make that two big bottles of rum

One for me, and one for you.
Sounds good!
Inside information from the UN rapture forecast center, update for the 2011 rapture season. Prediction that only celibate monks and virgins will be raptured exact # is not certain but forecast is somewhere between 12 and 16 individuals. Will be updated after 5/21/2011.
Quoting spathy:


Thanks Pott.
I did to leave it out there for just a bit for dramatic effect.
But thank God it looks like the subject is turning back to WEATHER :O)

Had 1/4" in my guage when I got home from the mountains this afternoon.
Drizzled all day, all over the Island.
Put out a couple of bushfires too which was good.
The first T-Wave of the season just passing through..
I really love my old pathfinder... Anyone knows if I can take it with me if I go in the (rup) rapture... Will a big chain from the bumper and around my neck do the trick??
Will I be able to control levitation of the SUV?
Quoting gordydunnot:
Inside information from the UN rapture forecast center, update for the 2011 rapture rapture season. Prediction that only celibate monks and virgins will be raptured exact # is not certain but forecast is somewhere between 12 and 16 individuals. Will be updated after 5/21/2011.

BAH!!
Foiled again.
Quoting sunlinepr:
I really love my old pathfinder... Anyone knows if I can take it with me if I go in the (rup) rapture... Will a big chain from the bumper and around my neck do the trick??
Will I be able to control levitation of the SUV?

You going to end up with a really long neck...
Quoting gordydunnot:
Inside information from the UN rapture forecast center, update for the 2011 rapture rapture season. Prediction that only celibate monks and virgins will be raptured exact # is not certain but forecast is somewhere between 12 and 16 individuals. Will be updated after 5/21/2011.


precisely why they don't celebrate Christmas at Georgia Tech...they can't find three wise men...or a virgin...
Quoting presslord:


precisely why they don't celebrate Christmas at Georgia Tech...they can't find three wise men...or a virgin...



I thought GT was one of the best schools in the country... haha
Quoting pottery:

You going to end up with a really long neck...


Thanks, Pottery, hope to meet with my sister (already there)



Quoting sunlinepr:


Thanks, Pottery

Yeah. Well if you like it!
I would leave the car behind, all things considered.
On the other hand, maybe you really LIKE sorethroats....
Quoting sunlinepr:


Thanks, Pottery, hope to meet with my sister (already there)




Glad I never had to buy her a necklace.
LOL, Good One!
I hear her grandfather was a Giraffe. Don't like to spread rumors. On a weather note, nice looking T/Wave south of Pottery may bring some preseason excitement to the blog. A lot of shear still but I notice over central America appears clouds on vapor loop are not being sheared. If this lack of shear moves a little further east watch out.
Big Low NW of Conus

Quoting gordydunnot:
I hear her grandfather was a Giraffe. Don't like to spread rumors. On a weather note, nice looking T/Wave south of Pottery may bring some preseason excitement to the blog. A lot of shear still but I notice over central America appears clouds on vapor loop are not being sheared. If this lack of shear moves a little further east watch out.

I was looking at that earlier too (the shear).
Also the western Caribbean sea is still showing some low pressures. Have been low for a couple weeks.
Will be fun to see what happens to this wave if it gets there.
Decoupled:

Quoting Levi32:
Decoupled:




Nice rain core.

Recent ASCAT didn't catch the whole thing. However, it's still clear that the surface circulation is not centered under the convection, but under the NW edge.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
111 PM CHST FRI MAY 20 2011

PMZ161-171-201100-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
111 PM CHST FRI MAY 20 2011

...A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 98W AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD FAIS...ULITHI AND YAP...

AT NOON CHST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W WAS CENTERED NEAR 8.7 AND
141.3E. HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
AND FAIS AND SOUTHEAST OF YAP. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND ROUGH SEAS
OF 7 TO 9 FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 1200 PM CHST...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 8.7
DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.3 DEGREES EAST. SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THIS IS APPROXIMATELY...90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
AND 480 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR.


THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND WILL LIKELY GO
THROUGH DIURNAL WEAKENING AND STRENGTHENING PERIODS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE YAP STATE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOVEMENT IS
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH.

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR WEATHER INFORMATION AVAILABLE FROM
THE YAP WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE ON GUAM...THE LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE AND
THE YAP STATE RADIO STATION. SMALL BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME
CAUTION AND STAY IN PROTECTED WATERS OR IN PORT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SMALL BOATS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
AND UPDATE THIS STATEMENT AS NEEDED.

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD


Pottery I thought it might be a little to obvious but a first I didn't notice the long neck. Glad you pointed that out most unusual, don't know what I was looking at.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Pottery I thought it might be a little to obvious but a first I didn't notice the long neck. Glad you pointed that out most unusual, don't know what I was looking at.


I hope the photo isn't banned... due to that (Big) neck calling the bloggers attention.... :)
Quoting Levi32:
Recent ASCAT didn't catch the whole thing. However, it's still clear that the surface circulation is not centered under the convection, but under the NW edge.


could probably put that down to shear.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Pottery I thought it might be a little to obvious but a first I didn't notice the long neck. Glad you pointed that out most unusual, don't know what I was looking at.

Yes, I know.
It's called 'selective vision' and it's pretty common.
It's the inability to see anything except what you are looking at.
Very strange.

heheheheh

See you guys tomorrow.
Quoting presslord:


precisely why they don't celebrate Christmas at Georgia Tech...they can't find three wise men...or a virgin...


ROFDWL!!!!
Goodnight Pottery just glad I didn't have to fill out an eyewitness form.
Interesting feature west of Hawai'i!



Special Tropical Weather Outlooks could be issued regarding this???
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Interesting feature west of Hawai'i!



Special Tropical Weather Outlooks could be issued regarding this???


Next Invest... for sure
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Interesting feature west of Hawai'i!



Special Tropical Weather Outlooks could be issued regarding this???

If it's west of Hawaii, it will continue west, no need to issue special warning, maybe only shipping warnings.
Quoting AussieStorm:

If it's west of Hawaii, it will continue west, no need to issue special warning, maybe only shipping warnings.


Yes, but it's moving east... closer to Hawaii
412. Ylee
g'morning folks. It's foggy, thick and wet. That never happens- this fog wasn't here yesterday.

Ominous, I tell ya, ominous.
Maybe an Omeka like storm?
I seriously doubt it conditions aren't that great there
why don't we talk about the storm that will likely be the Northern Hemisphere's first typhoon.
Is this a record flow rate at the ORCS??
Looks like it.

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/eng/edhd/lat.gif
416. IKE
162 hour 6Z GFS shows some rain in the SE USA.....


417. MahFL
I'll believe rain when I see it..........
418. IKE
From this mornings Tallahassee discussion....

BY
FRI AFTN...TROUGH SHIFTS EWD WITH AXIS FROM GREAT LAKES SSW TO WRN
GULF. IN RESPONSE...RIDGE KICKED EWD INTO ATLC. AS SURFACE...BY
18Z FRI...APPROACHING TROUGH DRAGS TRAILING COLD FRONT ESE TO
CNTRL GULF PRESENTING THE FIRST CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
IN MANY DAYS.


WILL GO WITH NIL POPS UNTIL WDLY SCT-LO SCT THURS AFTN AND LO SCT
FRI AFTN. MIN/MAX TEMPS WILL COMMENCE AROUND CLIMO SUN NIGHT/MON
(INLAND AVG MINS/MAX AROUND 64/88 DEGREES)...BOTH INCREASING TO
3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MON NIGHT-THURS NIGHT...DROPPING TO AROUND
CLIMO UNDER CLOUDY FRI SKIES.

Good Morning Ike.

Are you drawing these maps to get us excited over rain and then let us down when it does show?
Another interesting cluster of earthquakes this week:
20May, a magnitude5.3quake ~28miles(~45kilometres) at 88.9degrees(E) from FukushimaDaichi
14May, a magnitude5.2quake ~30miles(~48kilometres) at 54.1degrees(NE) from FukushimaDaichi
13May, a magnitude6.2quake ~21miles(~34kilometres) at 97.6degrees(E) from FukushimaDaichi

The lone red dot represents centralTokyo
421. IKE

Quoting PakaSurvivor:
Good Morning Ike.

Are you drawing these maps to get us excited over rain and then let us down when it does show?
I'm trying to give hope for a drought stricken area....I hope.
Quoting IKE:
162 hour 6Z GFS shows some rain in the SE USA.....




Just to tease us it will be virga:(
423. IKE
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Just to tease us it will be virga:(
I'll probably get .01 inches of rain...lol.

Looks like a quarter to a half inch on the GFS. No drought buster but it will settle the dust for a day or two.

I've had 1.36 inches of rain since April 6th.
About .06 so far here. Planted a small area with grass seed and the wild rabbits are coming out at night and muching on it. Glad something is enjoying the only green area that I once called a lawn.
Ike- that's almost seven days out. geeesh.
Good morning from wet Puerto Rico. Only,a few times the NWS puts the chance of rain in 100%,and that number is what they have for today in San Juan.See my Puerto Rico Blog for details.
429. Ylee
Well, Aqua, it'll give you something to look forward to!
"It's Sunday, that means only five days to go before I get that quarter inch of rain! Woo-hoo!"
Quoting presslord:


precisely why they don't celebrate Christmas at Georgia Tech...they can't find three wise men...or a virgin...

Love it Press! hahaha
431. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Ike- that's almost seven days out. geeesh.
Gives us something to look forward to:)

Another WOOHOO!
I want some of what Ike's on.
433. Jax82
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning folks. It's foggy, thick and wet. That never happens- this fog wasn't here yesterday.

Ominous, I tell ya, ominous.


It twas sunny at beach, I crossed the ditch and it turned gloomy, dark, and scary. Looks like its burning off though, thankfully, the end isn't today :)
434. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
I want some of what Ike's on.
Yo bud!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f7LwuVF8Oo
Mornin'...Rain on the way to central Texas again this year? Wow! A TRUE sign of the apocolypse..now I can go spend all of my money (with a donation to Portlight, of course) :_)
Man, they wiped all the rain off the map for SEC&SEFL for the next 7 days, grrrrr.

Rather staggering forecast from NOAA. Especially since the Ducks most likely will be headed farther westish this year.
I know some of you all arn't proud to see me.But I'm back on for a short while.Anyway I wasn't surprised by this forecast at all from Noaa.But I feel like people are underestimating this season.Hello? Neutral year...warm sst and a more western A/B high this year could mean trouble for someone later down the road.2010 by the end of this year will probally just be a distant memory for many.People were hyping last hurricane season way to much.Yeah sure it was active.But it doesn't matter how active a season is...It's where the storms go.
And by the way I'm not telling anybody to mark my words.2010 was a "lesson learned".Hopefully people arn't to dependent on these forecast and then will have to pay the price down the road...
Quoting aquak9:
Link

LOL Thanks Aqua! Has your owner signed you up?

Q: How can your rescuers possibly pay for my pet's care for only $135.00?
A: The $135.00 fee for one pet is not for the cost of their care. It is to compensate the rescuers for their travel, cover website expenses, and provide a profit margin.

Well, at least they're honest about it! =)
When swollen Mississippi River subsides, crawfish will be easy pickins


ST. MARTINVILLE — Crawfisherman Bill Granger welcomes the muddy Mississippi River water shooting toward his perch on the Atchafalaya River.


To him, the water is a road, a home and a living. Granger, 43, would like to see a full river each year.

On Thursday afternoon, pulling his boat from its swelling banks at Bayou Benoit Landing in St. Martinville, he said the Mississippi River water coursing south is akin to an earlier time that he has heard about only through his grandfather’s tales.

“That was our roads, how we lived, how we moved,” Granger said.

While he still calls the Atchafalaya River’s passageways his “brick roads,” the waterway Granger spends more time on than at home is rarely the river he longs for, the one his grandfather said roamed freely, its breadth spreading to form a plentiful, water world.

For perhaps the next month, as the Mississippi water flows through the Morganza Floodway, the Atchafalaya finally will meet Granger’s idealized image.

Yet during the river’s zenith, crawfishers aren’t expected to have much luck at their trade.

Scientists say that because of treacherous currents, flooded boat landing docks and the fact that the crawfish will disperse throughout the water, making them difficult to trap, critter hunting will soon become an arduous affair.

Already crawfish trappers throughout the St. Martinville area say docking is getting more difficult and that soon levees will become the only possible docking grounds, something most avoid because boats can damage levees, especially when they become damp.

Returning to Sandy Cove Landing, several miles south of the Benoit dock, Mark Bonin, 42, recalled watching his crawfish-trapping father launch his boat straight from the levee during the 1973 flood.

The Sandy Cove dock is now under water. And the 300-yard-long road leading from the levee to that dock now resembles a bayou.

But after the Morganza floodgates shut and the river subsides, crawfish will be everywhere. Crawfish trappers and laymen alike who lived through the 1973 flood recall simply picking them off the levees.

Their abundance largely will be due to the added oxygen in the waterway after decomposing vegetation has been flushed out, said Robert Romaire, a Louisiana State University AgCenter professor who studies crawfish management.

Randy Bourque, 34, already noticed a difference while out in the river Thursday morning. He was out to extend the lines on his traps to accommodate the rising tide.

“During Easter, the Holy Week, it was like a sewage pit out there, smelling, completely black,” Bourque said. “Now everything’s clean, and them crawfish is shedding and getting pretty.”

Higher oxygen levels will keep much more crawfish alive longer than during a typical year, and as more water is expected to remain in the river for longer, the crustaceans also will have much longer to grow, according to Romaire.

While Romaire anticipates a possible wild crawfish season extending as late as August — typically it ends in June — Bourque dreams, “Man, I hope we can fish the whole year.”

James Richard, 57, recalled the crawfish cornucopia of 1973.

“The crawfish ran in ‘73. Everywhere you put a trap, you got filled up,” he said.

Yet Jay Huner, 65, a marine scientist and former director of the University of Louisiana at Lafayette Crawfish Research Center, recalled a darker side to that flood.

“You literally could not give away crawfish because there were so many,” he said.

He warned that this year could be the same, “that there is so much crawfish that no one can access it.” In other words, flooding the market with too much crawfish could drop the price below what crawfish trappers need to survive, thereby not making it worth their while to catch the critters.

Another negative to the 1973 flood, Huner said, is “a huge amount of sediment was deposited.” In fact, all that sediment filling up the Atchafalaya is one of the reasons Granger’s idealized Atchafalaya no longer runs as in the good old days.

“It will no longer be what it was. I wish there were whooping cranes flying by my home,” said Huner.

And while Louisiana wildlife officials actually are reintroducing the endangered whooping crane into the state landscape, Huner sees the eventual fate of the Atchafalaya as less optimistic. He said it eventually will fill up completely with sediment through future floods, and simply wind up a hardwood forest with channels running through it, much to the chagrin of the populations it sustains.
..only 1.5 shopping days left till the Apocalypse.
Fiji's Meterological Service says a heavy swell generated by a high pressure system over the Tasman Sea was responsible for a giant wave which reached Sigatoka's highway. A Fiji Rugby team, which witnessed the wave hit, has told the Fiji Broadcasting Corporation it went right over their car and left fish and debris on the highway. Rajneel Prasad from the Fiji Meterological Service is urging people in Fiji to secure boats and other belongings and says more waves are expected at high tide. "It must have coincided with the high tide that was at 8am this morning, and we can expect similiar stuff to happen at around 9pm when the high tide comes back again and probably another one at 9am tomorrow morning when we have a two metre high tide," he said.
Ahh, another sign of the rapture fast approaching, thanks Skyepony
While the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality issued an emergency order [pdf] last week that addresses steps that should be taken by wastewater treatment systems and other potential pollution sources, it did not specifically address preparations by oil and chemical facilities and waste sites. LABB (Louisiana Bucket Brigade) is sending a letter today to relevant agencies requesting plans for soil and water sampling and cleanup in the event of spills.

The watchdog group is especially concerned about the thousands of oil waste pits like the one in Grand Bois. Officials with the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality told LABB that they have ordered only three of the 4,000 such pits to be emptied in preparation for the flooding.

In response to concerns about flooding of oil waste pits on Louisiana's Bateman Island at the base of Atchafalaya Bay, the state Department of Natural Resources told KATC TV that the facility has a perimeter levee designed to keep out flood waters and that owner U.S. Liquids of Louisiana has recently begun work to raise the levee's height from 12.5 to 14 feet.

These pits have been causing problems in other states. Regulators in North Dakota say oil companies may have ignored warnings to protect the structures from spring floods, resulting in some three dozen spills in recent weeks. Nineteen companies now face millions of dollars in fines as a result.

LABB Director Anne Rolfes notes that regulatory agencies had no effective plans for dealing with widespread chemical pollution following Hurricane Katrina in 2005 -- including a million-gallon oil spill from the Murphy Oil Refinery in a residential community of St. Bernard Parish just east of New Orleans (photo above).

"Oil was everywhere - in the house, in the slab. It was unreal and we decided to move away," says Johnny Lewis, who lived nearby. "I got zero information from the refinery, zero from government who is supposed to be looking out for us."

LABB is holding a press conference in New Orleans today in hopes of prompting industry and the state to properly inform residents about the potential for chemical contamination in flood areas. Residents who witness spills and other contamination incidents can report them to the group's Chemical Accidents Crisis Map at map.labucketbrigade.org.

LAFloodZoneChemicalContamination
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
21:00 PM JST May 20 2011
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.7N 140.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast And Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.3N 138.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

From Tiyan Guam
=================
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Fais and Ulithi Islands in Yap
Predictions from the wackjob.

The rapture will occur on May 21, 2011 with approximately 3% of the population being called to heaven.[14]
Earthquakes will begin on May 21 on the Kiritimati Island (Christmas Island near Australia) at 6:00 pm CXT (11:00 am UTC).[14]
At least we have a blogger that can report live on the first signs of doomsday. LOL
Earthquakes will continue "as the sun advances" with New York to be affected at approximately at 6:00pm EDT (10:00 pm UTC).[14]
the end of the world as we know it will take place five months later on October 21, 2011


This is the offical responsce from NYPD

The New York Police Department(NYPD) stated: "We don't plan any additional coverage for the end of the world. Indeed, if it happens, fewer officers will be required for streets that presumably will be empty."

Happy Doomsday eve everyone
450. Jax82
NEW BLOG HOMIES
NEW BLOG
Quoting Patrap:
..only 1.5 shopping days left till the Apocalypse.


Dang... and I still have people to shop for and I have to buy the dinner stuff...
I am happy to hear there is a silver lining to the flooding; however, I am concerned about what is in the water and what will settle to the bottom and end up in the food chain.

The EPA should be out there in force right now testing the waters and anticipating problems, forcing business to take measures to prevent environmental disasters.
Something tells me they are not.

The 36 documented incidents of contamination further north due to flooding is ominous.