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NOAA: June 2010 the globe's 4th consecutive warmest month on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:02 PM GMT on July 16, 2010

June 2010 was the warmest June since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and was the fourth consecutive warmest month on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June 2010 the third warmest June on record, behind June 1998 and June 2009. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - June, as the warmest such period on record. June 2010 global ocean temperatures were the fourth warmest on record, while land temperatures were the warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in June, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups. The record warmest temperatures in the lower atmosphere were recorded in 1998.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from June 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

June 2010 features an unprecedented heat wave in Asia and North Africa
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity brought the hottest temperatures in recorded history to six nations in Asia and Africa, plus the Asian portion of Russia, in June 2010. At least two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever in June.

The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

The Asian portion of Russia recorded its highest temperature in history on June 25, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004. (The record for European Russia is 43.8°C--110.8°F--set on August 6, 1940, at Alexandrov Gaj near the border with Kazakhstan.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be verified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO.) The source for the previous all-time records listed here is the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. According to Mr. Burt, the only other time as many as six nations set their all-time highest temperature marks in a single month was during the European heat wave of August 2003.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010, the day after Iraq recorded its hottest temperature in its history. Image credit: NASA.

June 2010 Arctic sea ice extent lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in June 2010 was the lowest in the 31-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The rate of ice loss during June was the fastest on record, approximately 50% faster than average. Ice volume was also at a record low through the first half of June, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. The record ice loss in June was due in large part to the presence of strong high pressure north of Alaska, combined with strong low pressure over Siberia, which drove warm air from Asia over the pole. This pressure pattern, called the Arctic Dipole, was unknown until the 2000s, and may be the result of climate change.

Eighth warmest June on record for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 8th warmest June in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Three states had their warmest June on record: Delaware, New Jersey, and North Carolina. Seventeen states had a top-ten warmest June, with five of these recording their second warmest June ever (Maryland, Virginia, South Carolina, Florida, and Louisiana.) No state recorded a top-ten coldest June.

U.S. precipitation
For the contiguous U.S., June 2010 ranked as the 17th wettest June in the 116-year record. June precipitation was the wettest on record for Michigan. Several other states were also anomalously wet, including: Iowa (2nd wettest), Nebraska and Illinois (3rd wettest), Indiana (4th wettest), Wisconsin (5th wettest), Oregon (6th wettest), and Ohio (10th wettest). Maryland (6th driest) was the only state that experienced a top-ten driest June.

U.S. Climate Extremes Index
NCDC's Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June was about 6 percent higher than average. The CEI measures the prevalence of several types of climate extremes (like record or near-record warmth, dry spells, or rainy periods). Factors contributing to the elevated 2010 value were large footprints of: extreme wetness (more than three times the average footprint), warm minimum temperatures ("warm overnight lows"), and areas experiencing heavy 1-day precipitation events.

U.S. tornadoes
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there were 387 preliminary tornado reports during June. If confirmed, this will be the second most active June on record, behind 1992. Minnesota had a particularly busy month with 67 preliminary tornado reports, besting the previous record of 35 tornadoes during June 2005.

The tropics are quiet
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. There is an area of disturbed weather off the coast of Costa Rica that is generating some heavy thunderstorm activity over the extreme Southwest Caribbean. This disturbance should move westward over Nicaragua and Honduras over the weekend, bringing heavy rains to Central America. NHC is giving this disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.


Figure 3. My neighbor Tom Vance works to clear a fallen tree from the road so we can get out of our subdivision.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Monday at the latest. I may have trouble posting much this weekend, as a severe thunderstorm knocked out power to my neighborhood last night. I was watching the storm from my porch when the winds suddenly began gusting to 60 - 70 mph, and figured I'd better hustle inside when the huge black walnut tree in front of my house began thrashing like the Hogwarts whomping willow! Two neighbors had trees crash through their roofs, and downed power lines started several small fires.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

What a lot of wasted space on the Blog tonite? We do need a blog limit on posting per day for many on here.
3002. JLPR2
You blog-casters are making my brain hurt. LOL!

Well I'm out for another while, got to finish with the damn Logarithms. :\
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


George is getting upset!!!!!!!!
The Jimmy
Quoting btwntx08:

were playing around join us if u want were bored


Quoting stillwaiting:
latest gfs run very interesting for gom...hmmmm


What is it showing?
gonna take a quick nap lol
*cough* *cough*
napcaster
oh quit being a sourpuss

its not like this kind of conversation would be happening if there was actually a storm or invest to track; people are just having some fun.

its been great for me in here tonight because it has been a very tough week and I need some laughs
Quoting stillwaiting:
latest gfs run very interesting for gom...hmmmm

Interesting-caster
Quoting TampaSpin:
What a lot of wasted space on the Blog tonite? We do need a blog limit on posting per day for many on here.

Down-caster
3008. xcool
tamp ;0
Quoting stillwaiting:
latest gfs run very interesting for gom...hmmmm

Link
Hit the loop button to run the 14 day forecast, looking active!
TH:it shows a disturbance moving west thru the fl keys and into the gom next weekendish...
Touché hunkerdown. Funny episode.
Quoting stillwaiting:
TH:it shows a disturbance moving west thru the fl keys and into the gom next weekendish...
on saturdays and sundays we serve dinner on a weekendish
Quoting hunkerdown:
on saturdays and sundays we serve dinner on a weekendish


lol +1
Well, I agree the natives get restless when the tropics are slow but the conversation tonight was fun and better than the some the the arguements that happen! Dealing with natural disasters can be stressful and sometimes you just have to laugh.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Interesting-caster

Down-caster


Dang Aussie....one minute i am a Wishcaster and the next i am a Down-caster.....LOL. Just don't give me the Castor-Oil...ROFLMAO
Quoting celticfrog:
Well, I agree the natives get restless when the tropics are slow but the conversation tonight was fun and better than the some the the arguements that happen! Dealing with natural disasters can be stressful and sometimes you just have to laugh.


Amen!!
carribean becoming more favorable:anyways gonna take a quick nap now bb in 45 min
Quoting TampaSpin:


Dang Aussie....one minute i am a Wishcaster and the next i am a Down-caster.....LOL. Just don't give me the Castor-Oil...ROFLMAO

no-oil-caster
I came up with this little saying after the 2004 season:

Que sera, sera.
Whatever will be, will be.
The future's not ours to see.
Que sera, sera.
What will be, will be.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I came up with this little saying after the 2004 season:

Que sera, sera.
Whatever will be, will be.
The future's not ours to see.
Que sera, sera.
What will be, will be.

Yes, after FL being hit by 5 hurricanes that year, I can understand your song!!
Quoting AussieStorm:

no-oil-caster


JUst in case you didn't understand......LOL

Castor Oil: Interesting Thing of the DayThe old cure for constipation has also been used as a weapon, and extracts from the same plant produce a deadly poison.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Dang Aussie....one minute i am a Wishcaster and the next i am a Down-caster.....LOL. Just don't give me the Castor-Oil...ROFLMAO


LOL...There you go Tim...It's just one night. Enjoy it before all heck breaks loose. Another saying I made up...."A little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants."
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I came up with this little saying after the 2004 season:

Que sera, sera.
Whatever will be, will be.
The future's not ours to see.
Que sera, sera.
What will be, will be.


Poem-caster.
3025. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


LOL...There you go Tim...It's just one night. Enjoy it before all heck breaks loose. Another saying I made up...."A little song, a little dance, a little seltzer down your pants."


That gives me the chuckles!!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, after FL being hit by 5 hurricanes that year, I can understand your song!!


2004 was bad enough. Then we had Wilma the next year.
3028. spathy
Quoting Grothar:


That gives me the chuckles!!!!

Grother?
Is seltzer in your pants an old time game?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I came up with this little saying after the 2004 season:

Que sera, sera.
Whatever will be, will be.
The future's not ours to see.
Que sera, sera.
What will be, will be.

Link to the You Tube video
Link
1988, 1980 for example didn't have their first named storm until Aug. We've already had our first name storm and a TD.
Quoting Grothar:


That gives me the chuckles!!!!


Elephant-Caster!
3033. Grothar
Quoting spathy:

Grother?
Is seltzer in your pants an old time game?


Old time episode!
Quoting Grothar:


That gives me the chuckles!!!!
3035. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Elephant-Caster!


That's what he gets for not going as Billy Banana!
I found this interesting. If all or most of 1979's Tropical Depression were named.. the season in total would have had up to 26 named storms.
Its a weapon of mass distruction......too.....ROFLMAO
3038. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:
For those that don't know what Castor-OIL is and does.....here is the pleasure to read....your gonna die laughing if you don't know.....LOL
My Great-Grandma took castor oil, every day of her life, and lived to be 102! She gave me some when I was little and I spit it right in her face. That was an automatic reflex because it was sooooo NASTY!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I found this interesting. If all or most of 1979's Tropical Depression were named.. the season in total would have had up to 26 named storms.


Some of them obviously were. We just lacked scatterometer data.
Have a great night everyone!
3041. xcool



niceeeeeanticyclone
Quoting TampaSpin:
Its a weapon of mass distruction......too.....ROFLMAO


That’s true Tim…After an attack like that, we would all have to evacuate.
Photobucket
Nighty-night. :)
Quoting scott39:
My Great-Grandma took castor oil, every day of her life, and lived to be 102! She gave me some when I was little and I spit it right in her face. That was an automatic reflex because it was sooooo NASTY!!


My brothers and i would hide any bad cold in fear of that crap......cause crapping we would do.....LMAO
Quoting StormGoddess:
Photobucket
Nighty-night. :)
nice effects but it appears you need to get your roof repaired...
I posted this to Dr. Rood's blog, but since the map referenced in the link is in the blog header here as well, I figured I'd repost it here for anyone who is interested. It is a look at the data behind some of the red dots on NOAA's temperature anomaly map.
NOAA Jan-Jun 2010 Warmest Ever: False Impressions
Quoting StormGoddess:
Photobucket
Nighty-night. :)


NITE......don't get sick or be bad or we will Castor oil ya.......LOL...nite Goddess!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I found this interesting. If all or most of 1979's Tropical Depression were named.. the season in total would have had up to 26 named storms.


they skipped some numbers for some reason

would have been 20 storms if all had been named
3049. Grothar
Uh, people, may I remind you that this is a weather blog. I just don't know how you all get so off-topic sometimes. Very distracting. Here, look at this:

Quoting Grothar:
Uh, people, may I remind you that this is a weather blog. I just don't know how you all get so off-topic sometimes. Very distracting. Here, look at this:



omg its a CAT 5!!

how can we be having a good time with that monster of a storm out there lol
Good Lord...I'm going to be up for the 2:00 AM TWO. My mom is going to be mad at all of you!!!!
3052. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
nice effects but it appears you need to get your roof repaired...


Hunker, you do have some good ones sometimes!!! TOTROFL.
3053. xcool
lol
Quoting Grothar:


Hunker, you do have some good ones sometimes!!! TOTROFL.


Tired Old Troll Rolling On Floor Laughing?
Quoting Hurricanes101:


omg its a CAT 5!!

how can we be having a good time with that monster of a storm out there lol


Grothar you was just thugged by a Kid....you need your Castor-Oil my friend......LOL
3056. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Good Lord...I'm going to be up for the 2:00 AM TWO. My mom is going to be mad at all of you!!!!


You have to stay for the 2 am update!!!
3057. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Tired Old Troll Rolling On Floor Laughing?


No smarty, it means Too Old To Roll On Floor Laughing. HA

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 180538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT.
3059. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 180538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT.


Does this mean you are going to sleep now finally???
Wow Tampa has me all figured out lol

not a kid sorry, just like the idea of a little comedy and sarcasm tonight while the tropics are slow

after the week I have had, I deserve a little laughter
3061. JRRP
the last part is pretty interesting, usually they don't add an although on the TWO
3063. scott39
Quoting Hurricanes101:
the last part is pretty interesting, usually they don't add an although on the TWO
Yea, Ive never seen that before! Hmmm
Quoting Grothar:


Does this mean you are going to sleep now finally???


No...I think I'll stay up til 8:00 a.m. to see if it turns orange.
3065. scott39
Is this wave going to wind up in the GOM?
3066. xcool
oh wow GFS
3067. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No...I think I'll stay up til 8:00 a.m. to see if it turns orange.


If you stay up until 8, you'll probably turn orange.
3068. spathy
Quoting Grothar:


No smarty, it means Too Old To Roll On Floor Laughing. HA

Yes we were worried that you may not be able to get up.
3069. scott39
Quoting xcool:
oh wow GFS
Does the TUTT look like its starting to move N to you?
Does orange come after blue?
3071. gator23
Quoting xcool:
oh wow GFS

link please
3072. scott39
Looks like some convection starting to fire in SW section of AOI. I think this has a good shot at developement.IMO
I still think the SW Caribbean is place to watch, the low that was near 13/83 is now around 13/81, moving away from the coast and the circulation becoming more pronounced even though it lacks deep convection at the moment.
3074. xcool
scott39 /YEAH ABOUT TIME
3075. spathy
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Does orange come after blue?

In my crayon box orange is nowhere near blue.
But if I hold my breath long enough.....
Mom moves them for me.
3076. xcool
Link

GO HERE
LOL spathy!
Quoting scott39:
Looks like some convection starting to fire in SW section of AOI. I think this has a good shot at developement.IMOwow! we both thought basically the same thing and wrote it at the same time
3079. Grothar
Quoting spathy:

Yes we were worried that you may not be able to get up.


I don't laugh much anymore. Just smile and make grunting noises. Causes too much pain.
3080. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
LOL spathy!


Geoff, why don't you take your castor oil and go to bed. Just hope for the best and expect the worst. LOL
3081. Grothar
All kidding aside. I mentioned that wave last night. You can all look if you are not too tired. I do think that has a better chance than anything in the Caribbean right now.
Quoting Grothar:


Geoff, why don't you take your castor oil and go to bed. Just hope for the best and expect the worst. LOL


HEHEHE.......set the alarm for about 1 hour tho.....LOL
Don't think I need Castor Oil. It's after 2:00 a.m. and I am already pooped out.
Quoting Grothar:
All kidding aside. I mentioned that wave last night. You can all look if you are not too tired. I do think that has a better chance than anything in the Caribbean right now.


the wave currently over Western Africa certainly has that look
3085. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:


HEHEHE.......set the alarm for about 1 hour tho.....LOL
Tampa, Are we looking at Bonnie down the road with the AOI at 55W?
Nite EVeryone i enjoyed.....see ya all tomorrow...on and GO RAYS!
That wasn't nice about the castor oil. Night!
3088. xcool


IF TOO BIG LET ME KNOW THANKS.
3089. Grothar
Quoting Hurricanes101:


the wave currently over Western Africa certainly has that look


You mean this one I posted earlier, before all this nonsense started on the blog. LOL I really think this is the one to watch. Unless it poops out when it emerges from the coast.


3090. gator23
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Don't think I need Castor Oil. It's after 2:00 a.m. and I am already pooped out.

stop being an Oilcastor. lol
Quoting Grothar:


You mean this one I posted earlier, before all this nonsense started on the blog. LOL I really think this is the one to watch. Unless it poops out when it emerges from the coast.




funny thing is that with all the monster waves we have seen come off Africa, the one that was the key trigger for Alex ended up being pretty much overshadowed as it was coming off the coast of Africa
3092. Grothar
Quoting xcool:


IF TOO BIG LET ME KNOW THANKS.


Hey xcool, we must have had the same thought at the same time. Look at the time of our posts. But I think mine is bigger and has more color.
Quoting scott39:
Tampa, Are we looking at Bonnie down the road with the AOI at 55W?


Possibly......i do know one thing...all we need is any kind of Surface Spin heading toward the Caribbean and we will have a Hurricane very shortly because of all the uplift from MJO and relatively low Shear in the Caribbean.....Ya, good chance!
3094. xcool
Grothar I think SO LOL.
Quoting gator23:

stop being an Oilcastor. lol


Pooped out = Tired. I would never attempt a double entendre.
3096. JLPR2
Loosing steam as it nears the coast


It needs lots of convection if it wants to fight off the SAL.
3097. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:


Possibly......i do know one thing...all we need is any kind of Surface Spin heading toward the Caribbean and we will have a Hurricane very shortly because of all the uplift from MJO and relatively low Shear in the Caribbean.....Ya, good chance!
The reason i asked is because the way the NHC worded the 2. Thanks
3098. leo305
Quoting JLPR2:
Loosing steam as it nears the coast


It needs lots of convection if it wants to fight off the SAL.


It may not have a chance.. too many fair weather clouds sorrounding it.. and being sucked into the circulation.. it's likely going to fall apart.
3099. xcool
SAL
Quoting scott39:
The reason i asked is because the way the NHC worded the 2. Thanks


Ya that was very strangely worded as many have pointed out......seldom do they mention conditions that far out as Shear Models are really not very good past 48hrs either!
3101. scott39
Looks like the spin with AOI is at about 16.5N 57.0. IMO
3102. JLPR2
Quoting leo305:


It may not have a chance.. too many fair weather clouds sorrounding it.. and being sucked into the circulation.. it's likely going to fall apart.


Then again this is similar to how out AOI at 50W started out.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey xcool, we must have had the same thought at the same time. Look at the time of our posts. But I think mine is bigger and has more color.


Doing a Kathy Bates / James Caan as I reach for the keyboard.
-
3105. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya that was very strangely worded as many have pointed out......seldom do they mention conditions that far out as Shear Models are really not very good past 48hrs either!
Does it look like the TUTT is moving out?
3106. xcool
scott39 YEA
I posted a while ago the ULL appeared to be drifting north. Not for sure though.
3108. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:
Loosing steam as it nears the coast


.


I do that a lot myself.
JP, it's not waning in convection
i'll leave with this post for the night seems the shear is lower already....anyways im out too tired to more on
3111. gator23
so whats the consensus here. The AOI going to do anything. Is it a threatter?
3112. scott39
Does anybody else have a "feeling" about the AOI being trouble in the near future, or is it just me?
3113. xcool
AOI
Possible tropical development
3114. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I posted a while ago the ULL appeared to be drifting north. Not for sure though.


More WNW. A trough appears to its NW appears to be having some effect on it. It will have to move out of the way before much can develop.
3115. xcool
ECMWF,COME
3116. scott39
Whats the shear like in front of AOI?
3118. xcool
5-10K


3119. scott39
Quoting xcool:
5-10K


Then I would say nothing going to stop it from developing--Is it?
Quoting scott39:
Whats the shear like in front of AOI?

was still looking in here so....look at post 3110 im out for real now
3121. scott39
AOI starting to moisten up.
3122. JLPR2
3109. Guanabacoa 2:22 AM AST on July 18, 2010


yeah and I'm Bugs Bunny XD
XCool, did you see what my screen name means? :).
3124. xcool


224
TCNA21 RJTD 180600
CCAA 18060 47644 NAMELESS 03154 11218 14134 215// 92707=

Tropical Depression #3 (NONAME)
15.4N 121.8E
Dvoark Intensity: T1.5
JP, it's a slight reduction, that's all.
3127. xcool
HMM
3128. scott39
I say 20% at 8
Remember, it's fighting of SAL.
What's wrong, X? Is it the ECM?
3131. xcool
I WAIT FOR EWCM
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
224
TCNA21 RJTD 180600
CCAA 18060 47644 NAMELESS 03154 11218 14134 215// 92707=

Tropical Depression #3 (NONAME)
15.4N 121.8E
Dvoark Intensity: T1.5


You're gonna make people think you're referring to the Atlantic. lol
3133. xcool
LOL
wow, omfg, XCool, wow, geeze.
3135. xcool
watch your mouthwatch your mouth
Quoting xcool:
watch your mouthwatch your mouth



I'm sorry, I'm just too excited, that's all, :(. LOL.
3138. xcool
AOI WAVE TO LA
3139. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Nothing significant on the 00Z ECMWF.
Hey Ike, you dont expect anything out of this AOI?
Morning, Ike! Stop by your blog, when you can, :).
LOL, I hope I don't though
3142. xcool
NGP TO WAVE TO LA HMMM
3143. scott39
This Wave already has a circulation with it, not to mention hot water and it looks like wind shear is dying down. Plus the convection is starting to fire up. Looks interesting to me.
It comes through SF, beforehand.
3145. xcool
Quoting xcool:
AOI WAVE TO LA


It's early too tell about that.
3148. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Hey Ike, you dont expect anything out of this AOI?


Little to no model support. ECMWF does little to nothing with it.
3149. xcool
The question that many are asking (after the excessive media and forecast service hype) is just when will the Atlantic Basin become tropically active? I continue to suspect that August will see about four named storms (and probably quite a few important warm-core disturbances), as analog years are strongly supportive of a "ramping up" of tropical cyclone formation. But for hurricane threats to truly increase, several parameters must be met.

One is that the Saharan Dust Layer must have a decreased presence over the Atlantic ocean. With extremely high 500MB heights covering all of northern Africa and much of southern Europe, the mean circulation pushes cTw values, laden with particulates, into the eastern two-thirds of the Atlantic Basin. This saline layer is easily visible on satellite images and comments have been made about its presence in Bermuda and the Leeward Islands. the European forecast model shows the ridge complex assuming an Azores character by 240 hours, so perhaps at that point we will see ITCZ waves (the discontinuity has been suppressed far into the upper Congo basin) have a chance to remain convectively active and begin a track toward the Americas. Previously, some impressive circulations have been stripped of deep thunderstorm concentration after only 24 hours emergence into the very warm waters west of the African coastline.

Another issue is the position of the deep mean easterlies and interference of low-latitude southwest flow in the upper levels. I remind everyone that the best way to determine possible impacts of vertical shear on tropical features is NOT by looking at numerical models and respective indices! Just even a cursory glance at a visible or water vapor image in the GOES EAST full disk view can tell the forecaster is the windfields are opposal to the projection and circulation of the disturbance. You can see this effect with the TUTT signature currently impacting a tropical wave over Puerto Rico. If you review the ensemble forecasts of the GFS and ECMWF versions, you will notice that the heat ridge complex is still very broad and covering much of the equatorial regions (keeping tracks of impulses farther to the south), but there is no chaotic look to the upper winds (shear from south and west winds seems decreased in most sectors).


BY Larry Cosgrove
3150. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Little to no model support. ECMWF does little to nothing with it.
I wonder why they dont develope it?
Nite, all! (Remember what I told you, Ike)
3152. xcool
KoritheMan I AGREE
Quoting IKE:


Little to no model support. ECMWF does little to nothing with it.


Nevertheless, I think it most important to keep a careful eye on this. While this wave alone might not develop, it will generate even more convection across the Caribbean, adding fuel to the fire, so to speak. The pre-existing area of disturbed weather across the Caribbean will become stronger with the passage of this wave, since two other tropical waves are already contributing to the observed convection there.

It's basically a similar situation to Alex. Passing tropical waves will pile up heat, which could eventually spin something up.
3154. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nevertheless, I think it most important to keep a careful eye on this. While this wave alone might not develop, it will generate even more convection across the Caribbean, adding fuel to the fire, so to speak. The pre-existing area of disturbed weather across the Caribbean will become stronger with the passage of this wave, since two other tropical waves are already contributing to the observed convection there.

It's basically a similar situation to Alex. Passing tropical waves will pile up heat, which could eventually spin something up.
Im trying to learn-- What do you see stoping this wave from developing?
3155. JLPR2
Well I'm off to bed, good night my fellow casters. XD
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
15:00 PM JST July 18 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 15.2N 121.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 15.6N 118.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting scott39:
Im trying to learn-- What do you see stoping this wave from developing?


As of now? Dry air.

When it enters the Caribbean? Competing areas of vorticity.
In the eye of the beholder :)

96/120hr-ish ECMWF just shows lower pressure in the W GOM.



FIMZ some kind of storm.


Something else at around 192/216-ish
Can't tell where they coming from yet. Just kinda weird all at roughly same place/time.

ECMWF- Blobbing us again. :)



CMC @ 216



Parallel GFS @ 192

and the blog is dead, does that make me a dead-blog-caster?
Quoting AussieStorm:


SE Texas caster


You rang? SmileyCentral.com
Quoting AussieStorm:
and the blog is dead, does that make me a dead-blog-caster?


Lol. Embrace your inner caster. SmileyCentral.com

I think I'm a way up too late caster?
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. Embrace your inner caster. SmileyCentral.com

I think I'm a way up too late caster?


How do you post those huge smileys?
same way you post any graphics on a board
Quoting KoritheMan:


How do you post those huge smileys?


Got em at smileycentral.com. You have to download a toolbar. At least I did. When you find the smiley you like you right click copy smiley HTML.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
same way you post any graphics on a board


O I forgot that part. Lol. Thanks for the reminder. :)
[ img src = "URL" ] [/img]

replace brackets with "less than or greater signs" and no spacing.
no problem =)
Thanks. Good night guys. Getting late and I'm getting tired.
good night.
OOPS Didn't think dancing boy would show up. Lol.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Thanks. Good night guys. Getting late and I'm getting tired.


Night.
And now the FIMZ at 192hr. Thought I'd change the map for a prettier one. Showing a storm farther down the TX coast. Yeah I know it will change. :P

3174. 10Speed
Isn't it about time for adjusted predictions to surface that downsize the current official guess totals for this season?
Quoting 10Speed:
Isn't it about time for adjusted predictions to surface that downsize the current official guess totals for this season?
Why would anyone what to do that? It is only the middle of July.
3176. tkeith
Quoting msgambler:
Why would anyome what to do that? It is only the middle of July.
mornin gambler...I dont think they will.
Good morning tkeith
3178. tkeith
got an early T-time this mornin.
3179. tkeith
Gambler, yall still seein oil on the beaches over there?
Quoting tkeith:
Gambler, yall still seein oil on the beaches over there?
Not much, a little here and there.
3181. tkeith
Quoting msgambler:
Not much, a little here and there.
I think they are doin a little better finding and skimming before it comes ashore. We're getting big oyster kills from the fresh water comin out of the diversion channels from the river.
Morning, everyone.

Anybody read the 8:05 TWD? Really nicely detailed and explained. Turns out the met is Gladys Rubio. Here's a sample:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W FROM 9N TO 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
CENTERED ABOUT 565 NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CURRENTLY...
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS PARTICULARLY FROM 15N TO 20N. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THEN OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MON. EARLY THIS
MORNING...SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE BEGINNING TO
REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 24-HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE IS 2 MB JUST
E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

And on the ITCZ.....

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N15W 7N30W 8N40W 10N52W INTO FAR NE
VENEZUELA. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...IS MOVING OUT OF AFRICA THROUGH SENEGAL.
CURRENTLY...DAKAR IS REPORTING NE WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN. THE
HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM SHOWS THE WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N E OF 12W...AND FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 20W-25W.

The whole thing is like that - really specific, as if expecting pple out here to understand what Hovmoller diagrams are...
3183. aquak9
g'morning you two fine young gentlemen.

I think I've eaten my last oyster for many many years. So sad. But when I ate them, about 8 weeks ago, I knew it was the last time, so I did it with reverence.

Finally got to read crownweather's discussion from yesterday. Hmmmm...everyone keeps sayin' this peace and quiet won't last forever.
Yeah tkeith, was afraid of that.
3185. aquak9
isn't a hovmoller, like a slide cut, like a slice of a 3D that gives you a 2D view to help you understand depth of the missing 3D part?
3186. tkeith
g'morning you two fine young gentlemen.

Does that include me too Aqua? :)

The oysters were destnied to be the first casualty.
Quoting aquak9:
isn't a hovmoller, like a slide cut, like a slice of a 3D that gives you a 2D view to help you understand depth of the missing 3D part?
Sorta kinda.

Mornin', aqua...
Quoting 10Speed:
Isn't it about time for adjusted predictions to surface that downsize the current official guess totals for this season?

Nope... 14-23 storms could still happen, we are not yet at the peak time of the season.

Good evening all.
3189. aquak9
oh yes, it includes all you fine young gentlemen. Sorry, I mis-counted, hahaha

running to the beach to find shark teeth.

ya'll have a good day.
3190. IKE
Quoting 10Speed:
Isn't it about time for adjusted predictions to surface that downsize the current official guess totals for this season?


I think there will be adjustments lowered slightly by some. I've gone back 100 years...to 1910 and looked at all seasons that had one named system through July 31st, to see what was the highest total from Aug. 1st til the end of the season.

The highest total I found was 17 in 1969. I don't see any high probability of development on any model the next 7-10 days. I think there's an increasing chance July is a bust...no named systems. Using 17 as the highest total for the balance of the season, that would total 18 for the year.

Anything over that seems too high, at this point. Also, it was interesting to note that most seasons that were very active had several form before Aug. 1st...from 4 to 7. 1969 was an exception, but still the total was 18.
3191. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:

Nope... 14-23 storms could still happen, we are not yet at the peak time of the season.

Good evening all.


I would consider dropping 14-23 ... to 14-18 named storms.

Quoting IKE:


I think there will be adjustments lowered slightly by some. I've gone back 100 years...to 1910 and looked at all seasons that had one named system through July 31st, to see what was the highest total from Aug. 1st til the end of the season.

The highest total I found was 17 in 1969. I don't see any high probability of development on any model the next 7-10 days. I think there's an increasing chance July is a bust...no named systems. Using 17 as the highest total for the balance of the season, that would total 18 for the year.

Anything over that seems too high, at this point. Also, it was interesting to note that most seasons that were very active had several form before Aug. 1st...from 4 to 7. 1969 was an exception, but still the total was 18.


IKE, did you find out if the conditions were like they are now, above normal?
Quoting P451:


I would consider dropping 14-23 ... to 14-18 named storms.


does it really matter? if at the end of season, there is 14 or 20 storms, then it's in the range.
Hello water puppy, if I didn't miss you. Was in a hot and heavy......Poker game....lol
Evening Aussie
3196. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:


IKE, did you find out if the conditions were like they are now, above normal?


I have no idea on that.

Here's 1933 that was active. It had 5 by July 31st...Link


2005 had 7 by July 31st...Link


1969 had 1....Link


1995 had 5....Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

does it really matter? if at the end of season, there is 14 or 20 storms, then it's in the range.



Good call. Don't know why people are fixated with the high number of 23. 14-23 seems reasonable
Quoting IKE:


I have no idea on that.

Here's 1933 that was active. It had 5 by July 31st...Link


2005 had 7 by July 31st...Link


1969 had 1....Link


1995 had 5....Link

Remember, this year, all ingredients are there and in ample supply.
Quoting mcluvincane:



Good call. Don't know why people are fixated with the high number of 23. 14-23 seems reasonable

Yeah, and remember, it only takes 1 storm to make the 2010 season historical for anywhere.
It's like storm was saying the other day: why is everyone who is talking numbers so concentrated on the HIGH end of forecast ranges? The average of NHC's range is between 18 and 19, well within the realm of possibility once we move out of the SAL season.

Additionally, I hope everyone realizes that we are not even at the beginning of the 3rd decade of this month. I'll do a statistical sweep in a minute to confirm, but I'm fairly certain that it is this final 1/3 of July, 21-31, when the bulk of July activity occurs. Furthermore, conditions seem to be remaining sufficiently condicive to TC formation in and around the CAR. There is still time for at least one named storm in July.

OK, the pple who were calling for 26 storms were a bit hyperbolic, I agree. In fact, most of the serious bloggers here would likely agree on that, and themselves didn't project more than 20 storms. But I don't think this talk of reducing numbers genuinely applies right now.
3201. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

Remember, this year, all ingredients are there and in ample supply.


If all the ingredients are there, it isn't happening right now.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

Quoting IKE:


If all the ingredients are there, it isn't happening right now.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN


cause everything hasn't come into alignment just yet, give it time and we'll see. If at the end of August, and we are at 1 storm June, 1 storm July, 1 storm August, then I will agree numbers should be lowered, but I it's to early to call.
Good morning Ike. I'm here to tell ya, if we do not get some relief from this heat then someone is going to have to come and bast us every 45-60 minutes until golden brown.
Wind image from TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast. Shows ~25kt winds affecting Bahamas/South Florida Wed the 21st.
This is from yesterday 12Z, they don't update yet for this web based product much more than once a day. This product is currently in the "test" phase at TAFB.


Click on image to view original size in a new window



Quoting msgambler:
Good morning Ike. I'm here to tell ya, if we do not get some relief from this heat then someone is going to have to come and bast us every 45-60 minutes until golden brown.
same here ms..and also I need 3 more jobs for the electric bill lol
3206. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
Good morning Ike. I'm here to tell ya, if we do not get some relief from this heat then someone is going to have to come and bast us every 45-60 minutes until golden brown.


Morning.

Aussie and 1 in August. Imagine this blog with one in August....lol.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning! Only have about 10 min.
Good morning Storm!! Hiw are you
Morning StormW
That guy from accuwx could prolly bring his down, though to be honest I don't recall his total, only that high prediction for JUL....
Quoting IKE:


Morning.

Aussie and 1 in August. Imagine this blog with one in August....lol.

Yeah i no... then the bust-caster will be out in force and going into over-drive
Morning all.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning! Only have about 10 min.

Morning StormW Sir
Quoting StormW:


Good, you?
Fine thank you
3218. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
That guy from accuwx could prolly bring his down, though to be honest I don't recall his total, only that high prediction for JUL....



Here ya go....

On June 21, Joe Bastardi, Chief Hurricane Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com, revised his earlier forecast to predict that 18 to 21 named storms will occur in the 2010 hurricane season, four of which are expected to occur during July. The revised forecast expects five or six of the named storms to be hurricanes. Bastardi's original forecast called for 16 to 18 names storms.


Ah....ain't happening Joe.
3221. IKE
I do agree the wave approaching the islands is worth watching, but it's heading into shear, for now. Shear is lifting, but it may keep this in check for awhile.

Has little to no model support for now for anything significant, but that could change.
3223. IKE
They've gone from "quiet" to "tame"!!!!


Atlantic Remains Tame

Jul 18, 2010 8:08 AM


There are multiple tropical waves to watch in the tropical Atlantic, but we do not expect to see any storms forming from these features in the next few days.

The main area of concern for this current time is a wave that is located at 56W and between 9N-20N. This broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms does not have the environmental catalysts needed for development, however conditions may shift to a more favorable situation as it moves closer to the Leeward Islands. Regardless of the very low chance of formation, this wave will begin to bring unsettled weather to the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands over the next couple of days.

Elsewhere, there is little in the way of features that we would be concerned about developing in the next 48 hours.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Donald Pillittere
3224. IKE
Crown weather take...

Today at 3:50am
I am updating this discussion, so that I can discuss with you a broad area of low pressure that is located a little less than 600 miles east of the Windward Islands. Satellite imagery early this morning is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity, however, there is a lack of deep thunderstorm activity and development seems unlikely over at least the next couple of days. Environmental conditions right now are favorable in terms of wind shear, however, dry air will likely prevent development from happening today through at least Monday. Development may become more of a concern as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday and beyond that as it pushes north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

The model guidance as a whole does not forecast development, however, it keeps this system pretty robust and strong. The GFS Parallel model forecasts that this low pressure system will track across the Florida Straits on Thursday and Thursday night and into the central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday before heading for the Texas-Louisiana border next Sunday. The European model forecasts that the ridge of high pressure will break down over the southeastern United States and thus brings this system across the Louisiana coast next Sunday and Monday.

Here is my thinking this morning: I think this system has a pretty good chance of developing later this week (Probably Thursday or beyond). One caveat to this is that if this system ends up tracking right over the Greater Antilles, the development chances would drop dramatically. Looking at the upper level winds and matching it to where this system is right now, it stands to reason that this system may end up tracking over Puerto Rico before tracking north of the rest of the Greater Antilles. Environmental conditions look favorable down the road when it gets into the Florida Straits late this weekend and then the Gulf of Mexico next weekend as a large upper level high pressure system builds and creates a favorable environment.

This system’s eventual track will largely depend on how far west a ridge of high pressure will build. The GFS model builds the high pressure system far enough west to put the Texas coast at risk; while, the European model is weaker with the high pressure system and puts the northern and northeastern Gulf coast at risk (from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle).

At this point, this is something to watch over the next few days and should not be something to worry about, since it has not begun to develop and probably wont for at least the next 3 to 4 days or so.
3225. IKE
Wave looks headed right for PR and Haiti/DR.
Ike, I see some thunderstorms starting to fire now should be the area of interest today.
3227. IKE
Quoting gordydunnot:
Ike, I see some thunderstorms starting to fire now should be the area of interest today.


Thinking they might put 97L on it.
Quoting StormW:


Bastardi has 18
So, entirely in line w/ possible.... I'm starting 2 think pple who are saying the season is overhyped are overhyping...
3229. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:

does it really matter? if at the end of season, there is 14 or 20 storms, then it's in the range.


Sure it does.

14-23 isn't a prediction it's a spread of confusion.

Will it be average. Will it be very active. We don't know so we'll just slide the whole scale in there.

If it's not important than why make a numerical prediction?

Well, they do, so they do find it important.

After seeing how inactive we've been so far I think it's reasonable to drop the predictions to 14-18 named storms. Which is still an active season.

I see StormW seems to concur citing 17-19.

Other forecasters also seem to be thinking along these lines.

3230. P451
Quoting BahaHurican:
So, entirely in line w/ possible.... I'm starting 2 think pple who are saying the season is overhyped are overhyping...


The thing to watch is not the number of storms but knowing that we could have a high number of major hurricanes. Of which also have a pretty clear cut warm water path to all the US coastlines.

3231. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST SUN JUL 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS VERY
NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR MOST OF TODAY...AN OVERALL "DRIER" PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE (WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BE SPREADING INTO/ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY TUESDAY...TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA...WITH THE
WAVE AXIS STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS GENERALLY
DURING MONDAY. THIS WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND YET AGAIN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
FROM THE TUTT AXIS...TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY (SQUALLY) WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BEGINNING TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND
THEN LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THIS WAVE
PASSAGE AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
AND RIVER FLOODING...AND THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. IN
ADDITION...BANDS AND LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP...
RESULTING IN SOME STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER. AN OVERALL "DRIER
PATTERN IS CURRENTLY INDICATED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
#3224 looks like a reasonable summary of expectations. I said yesterday that this wave's longterm prognosis is going to depend on the high. But we shall see.

Ike, others, I'm going to be in and out this a.m. (got stuff in and around the house to deal with) so I will BBL...
3233. WxLogic
Good morning...

3234. Dakster
Gooooooooddddddd Morning Wunderground.


Nice that it is still quiet in the tropics (for the moment).
Not much to see on amsub


wrong image sorry
It seems to me over the last several years that until someone can forecast the ull that seem to be forming ne of PR heading west to southwest it's going to be hard to predict storm numbers. I think do to upper atmospheric turbulence between the N. pole and the equator we are seeing a lot of air trying to mix or equalize not the best situation for T.S. formation. If you can't tell by now no meteorologist here, just observationist. But shear does seem to be gradually backing off this year. I think we will have a second half August and early Sept. to remember so to speak.
G Morning.. hmm heavy rains & lightnings are spreading over the Leewards Link Link 2
Well, the wave appears to be heading towards the shear, but if it moves south, conditions become very favorable. It just needs to stay in the Caribbean for this to really develop, which doesn't appear to be happening.
Quoting Dakster:
Gooooooooddddddd Morning Wunderground.


Nice that it is still quiet in the tropics (for the moment).


strong winds from an area of disturbed weather caused the centreamerican games of 2010 stadium rigging to collapse, maiming several victims and crashing into various brand-new cars

Link
Looking at the shear map a few days ago, things have really improved in the Atlantic since then. I'm quite impressed, if any wave stays around 10-15N, it has a good chance for development after reaching 50W out of the SAL.
ike you ever feel like your butting your head against the wall lol.
MKJP (METAR) KINGSTON, JM
time slp t / td dir / spd / gst/pcp presWx & skyCover & Visibility
(UTC) (mb) (F) (mph) (in.) (mi)
1200 1014.0(V) 77.0(V)/69.80(V) 70°(V)/006(V)/---/0.00" SCTBKN/020 6.2 mi
1000 1013.0(V) 78.8(V)/68.00(V) 350°(V)/003(V)/---/0.00" SCTBKN/020 6.2 mi
0900 1013.0(V) 78.8(V)/68.00(V) 20°(V)/005(V)/---/0.00" FEWBKN/020 6.2 mi
0800 1013.0(V) 78.8(V)/68.00(V) ---°(V)/005(V)/---/0.00" FEWBKN/020 6.2 mi
0600 1014.0(V) 78.8(V)/69.80(V) 310°(V)/001(V)/---/0.00" FEWBKN/020 6.2 mi
0200 1014.0(V) 78.8(V)/69.80(V) 350°(V)/002(V)/---/0.00" FEWBKN/018 6.2 mi
0100 1014.0(V) 78.8(V)/69.80(V) 100°(V)/003(V)/---/0.00" FEWBKN/015 6.2 mi
0000 1014.0(V) 78.8(V)/71.60(V) 140°(V)/005(V)/---/0.00" FEWBKN/012 6.2 mi
What I find interesting about this wave is the model support, it seems like they all keep the wave weak while in very favorable conditions even in the Gulf of Mexico. I am quite suspicious of this scenario.
BIG TIME improvemant shear wise.. just 2 blotches of high wind shear, one north of the Caribbean and one small one in the Eastern GOM.



Shear tendency really shows the improvment, again, any wave that stays around 10-15N and west of 50W has a good chance for development if conditions stay like this or improve even more.

You can easily make out the 2 blotches of high wind shear..

The little swirl that could..my blog AOI's on 7/14
Ditto on Crown weathers take on the AOI with the addition of convection is going to blow up as it comes across the windwards and Anegada passage.
It will interact a bit with the ULL to the north as mentioned in the SJU discussion and if the ULL does not rip all it's convection off and to the north as it did the last two weekend waves it could develop a bit faster.

The Waves that have just come off Africa and are being pulled south by the trough in the South Atlantic need to be watched as they are below the dust and the one coming off today has cleared itself an area of reduced dust. Waiting to see the sat pic once it clears the coast
Right. So a look at the database 1851 - 2009 gives me the following:

July 1 - 10 = 43


July 11 - 20 = 45


July 21 - 31 = 67

NOTE: this is storms observed, not storms with initial bulletin. Therefore there is some overlap with storms that continue past a cutoff date.

There was 1 D-storm before July 10, 1 E-storm before July 10, and 1 each F and G storms before July 31 (not surprisingly, these were all from 2005).

Basically this quick look suggests that activity increases substantially during the final 11 days of July, since activity during that period is equal to nearly 3/4 [76.14%] that of the other 20 days of the month.

Climatologically speaking, then, we have a better chance of seeing a named storm in the next 10 days than we did in the previous 18.
A lot of these waves this year including this one have large areas of vorticity. Which when and if they spin up doesn't bode well for those to be affected. I think this shows the ACE number to be more important than the actual # of storms.
LOL.....i just heard on MSNBC that BP says the CAP test is holding and no oil is coming out....and they might start capturing some oil.....WHAT THE HELL....if no oil is coming out why then are they wanting to capture oil then...unless it is for profit......you gotta be kidding!
Watch the convection(wave? can't get good sat) at 5N 19W and the one NE just coming off the coast. The NE one has rotation but the dust is probably going to dampen it. The 5N 19W one is far enough south to be out of the dust and will get some energy from a trailing trough in the SA. With the wave coming over the windwards tomorrow and the western Caribbean having two waves. We could have 3 invests by midweek.
Nice LL spin just south of the Western Tip of Cuba.....moving into the GOM.....needs watched!
look at this.
3254. OneDrop
Quoting gordydunnot:
It seems to me over the last several years that until someone can forecast the ull that seem to be forming ne of PR heading west to southwest it's going to be hard to predict storm numbers. I think do to upper atmospheric turbulence between the N. pole and the equator we are seeing a lot of air trying to mix or equalize not the best situation for T.S. formation. If you can't tell by now no meteorologist here, just observationist. But shear does seem to be gradually backing off this year. I think we will have a second half August and early Sept. to remember so to speak.

I noticed that too and wondered how that was taken into account when modeling storm systems or forecasting tropical weather.
we have another AOI guys that I expect the NHC will take note of whick is our Low that has just come of the coast of africa and quite healty as well


Quoting TampaSpin:
LOL.....i just heard on MSNBC that BP says the CAP test is holding and no oil is coming out....and they might start capturing some oil.....WHAT THE HELL....if no oil is coming out why then are they wanting to capture oil then...unless it is for profit......you gotta be kidding!

I wouldn't be surprised if they cap the well... connect with the other well and continue as normal, and just filling the broken well.
06z NAM at 84 hours

Several of the GEFS members have been consistent the last four model cycles in developing the system coming off the African coast.



Many have been talking about Shear......outside of the pocket of shear in the Bahamas from a TUTT and that is only 20kts...there is less than 15kts everywhere else or less! Anything in the Caribbean is free sailing for the most part except in the very Northern Edge........conditions are pretty dang good for July 18th.....





I think area in the lesser Antilles gets a orange at 2.Tampa I think if they get some oil flowing that would release some of the pressure. I guess it's a calculation of friction vs. pressure. I say if they can load up a couple of super tankers or whatever that's less to spill in the gulf in case it starts leaking again.
I have a gut feeling things are about to pop in the atlantic
that african wave looks healthy - i mean, its atlantic now
Quoting extreme236:
06z NAM at 84 hours

wow two storms..
3266. Dakster
Quoting serialteg:


strong winds from an area of disturbed weather caused the centreamerican games of 2010 stadium rigging to collapse, maiming several victims and crashing into various brand-new cars

Link


Thanks for raining on my good hopes...

And I just read an article from CNN that all of our satellites will have to be recalibrated as the upper layer of the Earth's atmosphere is contracting for unknown reasons...
Quoting extreme236:
06z NAM at 84 hours



That thingy in the GOM is the LL spin i was referring to just South of the Western Tip of Cuba....needs watched very closely.....and there is no doubt in my opinion that we have our first true Cape Verde storm forming very soon that has emerged off the Coast of Africa but, that is harmless for only now.
Low that has just come of the coast of africa got a big spin to it only needs more t.storms with it 1004MB LOW..
I'm surprised we haven't had more storms shear is incredibly low and that is the main limiting factor for early season storms what is stopping the Africans waves from reaching the Caribbean?
Quoting reedzone:
BIG TIME improvemant shear wise.. just 2 blotches of high wind shear, one north of the Caribbean and one small one in the Eastern GOM.



Shear tendency really shows the improvment, again, any wave that stays around 10-15N and west of 50W has a good chance for development if conditions stay like this or improve even more.

You can easily make out the 2 blotches of high wind shear..



I felt it was very important to note that again, this includes the new wave off of Africa, if it stays south, it will develop, conditions are favorable.
3273. IKE
From the Birmingham,AL. discussion......

COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN GAIN STRENGTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THUS
REDUCING RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. IN FACT...THE LATEST TREND IS FOR
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW NO POPS STARTING FRIDAY ONWARD.

THE REAL HEADLINE THOUGH FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.
MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HEAVILY LEANS TOWARDS CLIMO...IS ALREADY
COMING IN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS VERY SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE
MOS IS PROBABLY CUTTING AT LEAST 2 TO 3 DEGREES OF THE RAW
NUMBERS. IF THIS SOLUTION HOLDS UP...THEN THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
THAT QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH 100 OR HIGHER BY NEXT
WEEKEND.


FORECAST WISE...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THAN MOS AS
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GO ABOVE MOS IN
THE EXTENDED.


From New Orleans....

THE PATTERN WILL TURN HOTTER AND
DRIER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SPREADS WESTWARD AND ENVELOPES IN THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO LIMIT MOST CONVECTION.
HAVE WENT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS AS SOME LOCALIZED LOW
LEVEL FORCING ALONG ANY SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED CELL TO DEVELOP. WITH SINKING AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
90S AND HEAT INDICES RISING TO NEAR 105.

Quoting IKE:
I do agree the wave approaching the islands is worth watching, but it's heading into shear, for now. Shear is lifting, but it may keep this in check for awhile.

Has little to no model support for now for anything significant, but that could change.

where
3275. hydrus
Quoting P451:


The thing to watch is not the number of storms but knowing that we could have a high number of major hurricanes. Of which also have a pretty clear cut warm water path to all the US coastlines.

I thought the same thing.. I have an unusual prediction for this hurricane season...15/10/5...My thoughts were leaning toward a 1969 analog year The first named storm did not form until July 25. There were 12 hurricanes that year too. 18 named storms total.
its decreasing shead of it
This tells all......i keep all sectors posted on my website.....but, look how the Tropcial Atlantic Shear has been running below average.....nearly every sector: GOM, Caribbean, ect. look the same.

If we have this below average shear continue into the August and September months....WE ARE IN TROUBLE!


Quoting btwntx08:

where


Ike is correct, the big blotch of high wind shear will keep this in check unless it moves south, which doesnt appear to be happening. NAM doesn't really show shear in their forecasts lol. Though conditions in the Atlantic have improved ALOT since last week. I'm looking for Bonnie either by the end of the week or next week.
Quoting reedzone:


Ike is correct, the big blotch of high wind shear will keep this in check unless it moves south, which doesnt appear to be happening. NAM doesn't really show shear in their forecasts lol. Though conditions in the Atlantic have improved ALOT since last week. I'm looking for Bonnie either by the end of the week or next week.


I hate to differ with you but,....Where! Anything South of Puerto Rico and the big islands is only 10kts of shear.....Where is the shear your referring too...Basically anything in the Caribbean is under only 10kts of Shear!
Quoting serialteg:
that african wave looks healthy - i mean, its atlantic now

Wathc the one at 5N 19W.. the one to the north is in dust
Quoting P451:


Sure it does.

14-23 isn't a prediction it's a spread of confusion.

Will it be average. Will it be very active. We don't know so we'll just slide the whole scale in there.

If it's not important than why make a numerical prediction?

Well, they do, so they do find it important.

After seeing how inactive we've been so far I think it's reasonable to drop the predictions to 14-18 named storms. Which is still an active season.

I see StormW seems to concur citing 17-19.

Other forecasters also seem to be thinking along these lines.


I generally AVOID climatology and long term forecasting..yes it show trends and is sometimes accurate but...
A 17+-20% prediction when the range is 10 to 25 is statistically so probable of occurring it is a joke to call it a prediction at all
3282. SLU
Quoting TampaSpin:
This tells all......i keep all sectors posted on my website.....but, look how the Tropcial Atlantic Shear has been running below average.....nearly every sector: GOM, Caribbean, ect. look the same.

If we have this below average shear continue into the August and September months....WE ARE IN TROUBLE!




Thank you sir. I've been trying to explain this for days now.
according to cimss shear is decrasing where part of where the heaviest shear is now which like i said ahead of it
anyone about this tropical wave
Quoting btwntx08:
according to cimss shear is decrasing where part of where the heaviest shear is now which like i said ahead of it


There is stil high shear north of Hispanola that is not decreasing.
Anyone predicting over 20 storms i believe was really stretching things.....



Here is my forecast with all the reasoning posted on my WebSite with Why.....but, here was my Summary...


2010 Atlantic Tropical Forecast
Posted by TampaSpin on June 7, 2010 at 2:00 AM

Summary:

Based on my rating system and plugging the numbers together, my best estimate for the 2010 Atlantic Basin Tropical Outlook is for:

70% chance of Above Average Conditions leading to

16 Named storms--the average is 9.6

10 Hurricanes--the average is 5.9

4 Major Hurricanes--the average is 2.3


I will enjoy hearing the debates of my thoughts and keep in mind these trends can change!



Thanks,

Tim
3287. OneDrop
"The world is loaded, it's lit to pop and nobody ain't gonna stop!"
-Jane's Addiction 'Stop'
Here's hoping to fish storms and everyone's saftey when the Atlantic does POP
Quoting reedzone:


Ike is correct, the big blotch of high wind shear will keep this in check unless it moves south, which doesnt appear to be happening. NAM doesn't really show shear in their forecasts lol. Though conditions in the Atlantic have improved ALOT since last week. I'm looking for Bonnie either by the end of the week or next week.

The ULL north of PR is forcast to move north leaving the area just to the North of PR DR with no shear by Wednesday. The wave is most likely not going to stay south although it may split over the Islands. I'd give a really good chance of an invest north of PR DR by Tuesday afternoon. There I am upcasting...
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
anyone about this tropical wave


YEP that needs watched very close....not much in Vorticity there showing up yet....but the spin seems to be just forming.....so look for Vorticity to pop up soon.
wow look at this our wfo talks about the mjo
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
447 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY/...ABOUT A WEEK AGO THE GFS
ENSEMBLES WERE FORECASTING THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION PHASE
DIAGRAM TO TREND TOWARDS OCTAVES ONE AND TWO WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF
RISING MOTION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NEARBY CARIBBEAN/ATLANTIC.
THAT PARTICULAR FORECAST COMBINED WITH A NEGATIVELY TRENDING NORTH
ATLANTIC OSCILLATION WERE THE FIRST HINTS THAT RAIN CHANCES MAY BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEK FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS MORNING/S
ANALYSIS FROM CPC SHOWS THAT THE MJO IS CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF
OCTAVE TWO AND SURE ENOUGH THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF
WITH ISO TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING AT WRITING ACROSS
MARINE ZONES. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TOWARDS AND OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TO INFILTRATE ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE JUST SHY OF TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RUC13 AND
HRRR NWP HINT THAT GREATEST PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF
CWA THIS MORNING /ESPECIALLY ONCE DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY/
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS OUTPUT FALLS IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN A FEW SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO TROPICAL NATURE
BUT ATTM DO NOT FEEL THREAT IS GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ZONES.
POPS DROP OFF BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ON MONDAY IN WHAT COULD BE ALMOST A REPEAT OF RAIN THREATS. WENT
WITH MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AS I
CURRENTLY SEE NO STRONG REASONING TO DIVERT FROM GUIDANCE FOR
THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&


Probably one of the best this season so far emerging.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I'm surprised we haven't had more storms shear is incredibly low and that is the main limiting factor for early season storms what is stopping the Africans waves from reaching the Caribbean?

Dust from the SAL has been keeping the convection down. I have a blog on it from a couple weeks ago..
back to shear...i meant decreasing around pr eastward still saw the stronger just north of haiti
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting TampaSpin:
LOL.....i just heard on MSNBC that BP says the CAP test is holding and no oil is coming out....and they might start capturing some oil.....WHAT THE HELL....if no oil is coming out why then are they wanting to capture oil then...unless it is for profit......you gotta be kidding!


If you take away BP's ability to make a profit then who will pay for the clean up? Tax payers? I'd rather BP stay in business and pay for the clean up.. If they go out of business the clean up will fall back on our government. You know the Mexican government wont pay for anything.
Quoting extreme236:


There is stil high shear north of Hispanola that is not decreasing.
This is the shear Ike is talking abt. The Twave seems likely ATM to run directly into that, which would likely disrupt cyclogenesis.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


If you take away BP's ability to make a profit then who will pay for the clean up? Tax payers? I'd rather BP stay in business and pay for the clean up.. If they go out of business the clean up will fall back on our government. You know the Mexican government wont pay for anything.
What exactly does the Mexican government have to do with the oil spill? Just wondering? And good morning earthly and Tampa.
3299. palmpt
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


If you take away BP's ability to make a profit then who will pay for the clean up? Tax payers? I'd rather BP stay in business and pay for the clean up.. If they go out of business the clean up will fall back on our government. You know the Mexican government wont pay for anything.


It has nothing to do with profit... They are going to burn half of it offshore. They are concerned about the pressure. No conspiracy...
3300. IKE
NEW BLOG!
3301. 4Gaia
Good Morning! Hey, how do I upload an avatar pic?