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NOAA hurricane season forecast issued

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:16 PM GMT on May 22, 2006

NOAA released its not-very-cheerful 2006 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. The outlook calls for a very active 2006 season, with 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes. An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, with 2.3 of them being major hurricanes. However, since an active period of hurricane activity began in 1995, the Atlantic has averaged 15 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Figure 1). NOAA expects an 80% chance of an above normal season, 15% chance near normal, and a 5% chance below normal. They note that 2006 may turn out to be the 4th hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season in a row. A repeat of last year's record season is not expected, though, because tropical Atlantic SSTs are not presently as warm as last spring. They also note that some of the other factors that contributed to last year's record season are not predictable at this time--an amplified upper-level ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., long periods of low thunderstorm activity in the central Pacific, and exceptionally low pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean Sea region.


Figure 1. NOAA's 2006 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, compared to the historical record.

NOAA does not make any forecast of where this season's storms are likely to hit, stating, "Historically, very active seasons have averaged 2-4 landfalling hurricanes in the continental United States and 2-3 hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea. However, it is currently not possible to confidently predict at these extended ranges the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes, and whether or not a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season."

For comparison, here is what the other hurricane forecasting groups are predicting for 2006:

Colorado State team (Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, updated April 4 2006, with a new update scheduled for Wednesday, May 31):

17 named storms
9 hurricanes
5 intense hurricanes

Cuba's National Weather Institute prediction from May 2, 2006:

15 named storms
9 hurricanes

Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. May 5, 2006 forecast:

15 named storms
8 hurricanes
3.6 intense hurricanes

So, if you live on the Atlantic or Gulf coast, it's time to get your hurricane supplies ready, perhaps buy that generator you've been thinking about getting, and make whatever other preparations you've been putting off. Hurricane season starts next week, and it looks like it'll be another significant one!

Jeff Masters

I'll be back tomorrow afternoon with an analysis of the new TV ads being run by the Competive Enterprise Institute procaiming that "Greenland's glaciers are growing, not melting", and "the Antarctic Ice sheet is getting thicker, not thinner." We'll see that these statements are dubious half-truths, at best.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Here is a SST map:link
the yellows in that map are roughly 80 degrees...
If one does get a generator, don't forget to be able to rotate fuel stores, and have enough gasoline on hand. I got a gasoline powered generator last year after Rita, and I'm keeping 15 gallons of fuel on hand. So far, what I've been doing is every few weeks I fill the truck using the stored gas and then taken the cans to the station to fill up. It seems kludgy and I keep thinking there should be a more time efficient way, but so far, I've not found one that actually works..
Hello folks,

Thank goodness for a new blog as the 450 plus comment old one nearly tore my computer in half.

The one thing that we can all agree on is that it looks like it's going to be another sporty hurricane season.
SSTs are not presently as warm as last year??? Huh?

Ya'll check out the maps in my blog and tell me what I am missing. They look to be warmer then last year if you ask me.

SJ
LOL rwwhot. I got one for Rita as well. I doubt that anyone here in SW La. has neglected to get one. In fact, I'll bet you couldn't give one away around X-Mas due to how many were bought in those few weeks after Rita. I just pray that I don't need it this year. We are just now getting everyone back on their feet.
3.6 intense hurricanes? Not 3, not 4 but exactly 3.6. That's interesting. I'm an engineer and I'm always nervous about using decimal places(that's inferring some serious accuracy in a field well known for the necessary lack of).
(Hint for gas storage - SeaFoam. It's a gas stabilizer)
swlaaggie - Yeah, 3.6 intense hurricanes is impossible (how do you have 3.6 hurricanes; this is like having 3.6 people or anything else). What they really mean is 3-4 intense hurricanes with a slightly higher chance of having 4 as compared to 3.
http://www.floridapreparesnow.org/
May 21- June 1 is tax-free days in Florida--get that generator! :D

B
I'm a huge fan of storms, even hurricanes, although I don't get to experience them up here in Missouri. It'll be interesting to see what happens this year, I just hope major cities don't find themselves in the bullseye this year.
Yea Michael, I was being a little tongue in cheek but I don't think I would report a weather related forecast/prediction using anything other than integers.

It's no big deal, I'm just easily entertained and I saw some humor in it.

It is pretty interesting how consistent all the reporting groups are. The 3.6 bunch(TSR) appear to have issued forecasts each month, well in advance of some others so it doesn't appear there is bandwagon stuff going on.
rxse7en -> After that 12 day hurricane spending spree you might have to sell your house to pay off the loan you had to take out in order to buy all that stuff!
Not quite as bad as what I was saying last week in the "La Nia is gone" thread...


Posted By: TampaSteve at 5:53 PM GMT on May 12, 2006.
TampaSteve's early "off-the-cuff" predictions for Hurricane Season 2006:

18 Named Storms
12 Hurricanes
Of those 12 hurricanes...
9 will reach Cat 2
5 will reach Cat 3
3 will reach Cat 4
2 will reach Cat 5


In other words, I predict we will have (at max intensity) 2 Cat 5s, 1 Cat 4, 2 Cat 3s, 4 Cat 2s, 3 Cat 1s, and 6 Tropical Storms in the 2006 season.

Hear me now and believe me later.
SJ,

Interesting set of ST maps. 1998 looks awfully warm and yes, 2006 looks basically the same or warmer than the 2005 graphic. Is there a chance that Dr. Master's comment is based on a wider area of coverage than that depicted in your blog graphics?
SSTs are not presently as warm as last year??? Huh?

Up until a couple weeks ago the gulf was ahead of last year with 80 surface temps up to the TX and LA coast, but since then a series of cold fronts has knocked the 80 degree line back to the central and southern gulf. Nothing but 70s across the north gulf now, although I'm sure the surface layer will shoot back up fairly quickly once the very warm summer pattern sets up across the central and eastern US by the weekend.
The NOGAPS model has been showing a tropical storm developing off the Mexican coast in the East Pacific for a few days now; other models either don't show anything of only show minimsl short-lived lows. Also, it has already existed for 24 hours now and is becoming more tropical.
Anyone have any ideas on the reason/duration of the extreme drought going on in south Texas? here is a link to the drought map of the US. Dought Monitor We are currently in an exceptional drought, with massive crop failures and all the other things that accompany it. We have only had 2.9 inches of rain here since Nov, and that is 1/5 or so of normal.
You can also see the East Pacific storm developing here.
It looks to me like the gulf IS warmer, but the trend down in the Caribbean and off West Africa is noticably cooler. And tht is where the bigger storms usually get their start- I'm assuming that is the logic behind the reasoning.
Michael,

Tried to access link and failed. Is it me or are they having problems? In other words, can you still access?
22. jcxt
Here are the Colorado team's early predictions for the past several years. The number is net tropical cyclone activity (similar to the ACE number NOAA uses). The fact that have underpredicted every year (except 2002) and have made their highest prediction for this year certainly does not bode well for he upcoming season.


Year Dec Apr Actual
2006 195 195 ???
2005 115 135 249
2004 125 145 228
2003 140 140 168
2002 140 125 80
2001 90 100 132
2000 125 125 134
1999 160 160 193
Here are the SST Anomaly charts for 2006 and 2005

May 19th 2006

May 21st 2005
Hmmm... the links both work for me; try this link (the main page).
Fredwx,

The 2005 chart looks like it has a red bulls-eye just off Louisiana. Now that's kind of a spooky look-back.
Anyone see that system in the gulf of mexico? its making skies overcast here. Can anyone tell me what that is?

anything to worry about?
Upper level low. Nothing to worry about. I pray I see some rain from it this week..LOL
Tampa, the Carib is much warmer then last year. Look at the maps in my blog. It is warmer. The Gulf Stream is warmer. ANd much of the Atlantic appears to be warmer.

SJ
lol, alright. Thanks.
Thanks Michael. Much better. The system you are referencing doesn't seem to move at all. As you say, none of the others show this system or any other system for any time in the near future.
It looks like my own predictions are pretty much what the experts are expecting.

Posted By: louastu at 6:20 PM GMT on May 12, 2006.
15-18 Named Storms
8-11 Hurricanes
3-5 Major Hurricanes
0-1 Category 5 Hurricanes
2 U.S. Major Hurricane Landfalls
Hellsniper223 >> Regarding clouds over the
Gulf Of Mexico
StormJunkie >> The total area of ocean that has above normal temperatures this year appears to be more than last year, however, the anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean appear to be slightly cooler than last year.
Louastu,

Is that 0.3 cat 5's or 0.6 cat 5's? No fence sitting allowed.

:)
Weatherguy, it's not just upper level. Look at the wind maps, it's got a surface circulation.
I think that there will be 2-3 Category 5s, especially if this year is more active than predicted. Also, I wold say that the most likely areas for any Category 5 hurricanes would be the Gulf or western Caribbean.
thanks fredwx. It just had me a little on edge, because infared immagery shows a swirling mass of clouds over 80 degree water in the gulf and its not even june yet...
The maps I look at show the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean very noticeably COOLER than last year.

Surface temps

2005
2006

Total heat content

2005

2006
That area in the Gulf is a little interesting. The area of circulation is lagging behind in a friendlier shear environment, while the convection is slinging off to the east.
Hawkeye,

Am I reading wrong or are all of these heat content...no ST's?
Damn, gave the wrong links for SST. Lemme try again.

------

The maps I look at show the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean very noticeably COOLER than last year.

Surface temps

2005
2006

Total heat content

2005
2006
So which maps are correct? And why is there a difference?
Shear is pretty high over much of the Gulf (except for a narrow band of shear as low as 10 knots), especially where the convection is (60 knots).

Link
I think i would like to see that in the gulf develop into a storm and just drench the panhandle area... Its been really dry over here...
Much better Hawkeye. Thanks.
Hi all
Returning for the 2006 season, hopefully it will be nothing close to comparison like last year, but somehow I feel otherwise. Personally I don't think the Carolinas will be the focus this year, I think Florida and Gulf States will see more action this year.

Now for my dumb question. Does anyone know if an active fire season is a precursor to a busy hurricane season? Granted I think a busy hurricane season will lead to a busy fire season, but for some odd reason I have the notion that dry winters lead to exceptionally wet rainy seasons??? Also where do I find information on the Bermuda High and how it is setting up for this year?

Other than that, I just wanted to say that even though I'll lurk more than I post, I do visit here often, because of the all the links you guys provide and the various commentary for the notorious and not so notorious posters. I like you all and hope you can maintain civilized composure when things really start heating up. As a reader, I appreciate EVERYONE's opinion and comments and hate seeing you guys attack and fight each other over your digital egos.
It's where the low is sitting that's most important, right?
Wow, sheer is really low over the carribean... How long is that expected to last?
50. Alec
In general more fires come with drier weather....and since weather likes to balance out, I could see some type of a connection between our drought and rains to come later on(which would include tropical cyclnes)....thats as easy as I can explain it...LOL
Dr. Master's Blog - "They also note that some of the other factors that contributed to last year's record season are not predictable at this time--an amplified upper-level ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., long periods of low thunderstorm activity in the central Pacific, and exceptionally low pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean Sea region."

Help please. I understand how the third factor may play into last year's season but I'm struggling with the first two. Not saying that it is wrong at all, I just don't understand.

The high pressure ridge in the east would explain steering to the gulf but how did it aid in development. The lack of thunderstorms in the Pacific leaves me clueless. I don't have a connection.

Help? Thanks.
52. IKE
"I think i would like to see that in the gulf develop into a storm and just drench the panhandle area... Its been really dry over here..."....

Where are you???? I'm in the panhandle too...Defuniak Springs, Fl.
Basically, tropical storms love to form to the south of subtropical ridges, like the one that spent much of last season along the east coast. Also, with a high pressure over the east coast you will naturally have lower pressure over the sw Atlantic into the Caribbean and Gulf. The lower thunderstorm activity over the Pacific likely leads to lower shear over the Gulf, Caribbean, and sw Atlantic. All of the highly positive factors came together for last year's hurricane season.
Fort Walton Beach
55. IKE
We need some rain up here too. Don't think that low in the gulf is going to give us much.

56. Alec
Im in the Panhandle too...Tallahassee..its been hot and dry but rain is forecasted by the end of this week with sea-breeze interactions...
pro'lly not... but Its ok to wish, right?

wait till Mid june early july... we should see something spin up around then.
Mid June to July? I don't think so. Link
59. Alec
IF it did form at most a storm near SC would be below hurricane wind speed simply because the water temps are very cool there!(73-74 degrees)
60. Alec
but of course if the water temps rise rapidly by that time(June3)then yes, if the conditions warrent a more sizeable storm could stike than a mere tropical storm...

Posted By: rwwhot at 4:32 PM GMT on May 22, 2006.

I got a gasoline powered generator last year after Rita, and I'm keeping 15 gallons of fuel on hand. So far, what I've been doing is every few weeks I fill the truck using the stored gas and then taken the cans to the station to fill up. It seems kludgy and I keep thinking there should be a more time efficient way, but so far, I've not found one that actually works..



.....ETHANOL.....

Hawkeye,

Why do they like to form south of subtropical ridges(i.e. what is it about the south end of these ridges that helps spin them up?). With regard to the low pressure issue, I, believe it or not, get that one. I thought that the lack of shear might be the answer regarding the Pacific thunderstorms but why did the Pacific have an unusuaaly low number of storms then?

Thanks for your previous response.

Sup guys,

I'm returning from my non-hurricane season hiatus and will be hanging out with ya this season (as I did last season).

Anyway I can't help but feel that 2006 has been very much like 1998. Here in Florida we've been receiving little rain while experiencing very high temperatures, and hence lots of fires. There have also been tornado outbreaks and torrential rains in middle Tennessee this year, which also occured in 1998.

I know correlation doesn't say much, but it's not worthless.

Anyway, the 1998 Atlantic season had 14 named storms, 10 of them Hurricanes. The season started slow, but the late season was very busy. Hurricane Georges is a particularly notable storm from that season.
64. WSI
"Weatherguy, it's not just upper level. Look at the wind maps, it's got a surface circulation."

Colby where are you seeing this? I am only finding upper level cyclonic winds.

ok - not sure why that unfinished message decided to post itself on the blog - heheheheh - here's the rest:

.....ETHANOL.....

Find an ethanol powered generator - in a sealed container, ethanol should last just about forever (if it's open to the air it will absorb water and dilute itself).

You would be avoiding the depletion of fossil fuels at the same time.

If for some reason no one makes an ethanol powered generator, you could put a group together to design, fund, manufacture and market it. As you can see, there are at least 2 major benefits over gasoline powered units.

Should be a "no-brainer".
WillJax - You forgot the biggie in 1998: the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record.
Current surface map...Link

Still dont see any surface low pressure. But if ya have anything on it Colby, please post it.
Michael. Dont believe everything you read by Accuweather..LOL They are always trying to hype up something!..LOL
Good callon mitch, Michael. That was a ridiculous storm.

Good to see ya again, too.
I wouldn't say they are hyping it up. It seems to me that they are simply taking note of what the model is predicting.
Hey willjax good to see you again.

Stop by StormJunkie.com and leave any feedback in my blog.

Thanks
SJ
300 hour GFS!..Ha Ha!! You can do better just throwing a dart!..LOL
Ethanol from corn is no answer to the thirst for oil. And neither is ethanol derived from cellulose. The strength of industry is measured in horsepower. The economy car has at least a hundred, freightliners five times that, and industrial plants tens of thousands, even millions of horsepower turning the wheels of industry. Think about how much corn must be grown and fermented to feed all those horses. You could grow corn on every square inch of arable land in America and only produce a small percentage of the fuel needed to drive the country's industry. It's a dream.
Before you laugh off the GFS, note that it has been showing it for a week.
It's all kind of silly to me. We don't get much accuracy beyond day 7 with the GFS, why believe any of these forecasts? Saying there will be "XX" number of hurricanes is like saying the sun will rise. No duh.. There are hurricanes pretty much every year. I just don't see the point in this press release. If you live along the Gulf coast or any place where a Hurricane is possible, shouldn't you already be prepaired? I live in Northern Illinios. I have a snow blower. I KNOW that sometime next December, January or February there may be a big snowstorm. I'm prepaired.
California... And that is easier than rotating fuel, how??

Sheesh, if I was going to get another generator to solve this nuisance, I'd get a diesel.

Might look into the stabilizers, though, I'm not sure I'd trust running them through my truck's engine. I just don't know enough about them at present.
Windshear in the tropics is waaay below normal:



Notice that the spike a few days ago did not go above normal; this means that it has been below normal for almost three weeks. Also, notice that the normal value (thick black line) starts dropping much faster at this time of the year.
swlaggie, it really is mostly about the area south of a subtropical ridge having lower pressures. You would also naturally have lower pressure to the east, west, and north of a subtropical ridge, but south of the ridge is typically where the very warm water and lightest shear are... ideal for hurricane formation.
The SSTs right on the SC coast are low, but you forget the Gulf Stream, which is hovering near 80 degree surface temps and quite a depth of high heat content.
Yes, there is a trough of low pressure over the Yucatan that will move slowly NE. Just alot of shear in that area though.

Michael, I am still laughing!..LOL
Lets all remember the predictions this time LAST year. The initial predictions early in the 2005 hurricane season were waaaaaaaaaaay off by the time 2005 ended.

Maybe when 2006 is over, the non-believers will see the light and finally realize climate change is real.

Another reason why you should not laugh at models: Remember Wilma? The GFDL forecast her to become a sub-900 mb, 175 mph Category 5 before she was even a depression!
84. Alec
This is from the 2006 prediction release and is exactly why saying a particular region is at low risk months in advance isn't good advice:

"1) It is currently not possible to confidently predict at these extended ranges the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes, or whether a particular locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Therefore, residents and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should always maintain hurricane preparedness efforts regardless of the overall seasonal outlook."

Michael that is a 300 hour GFS forecast. Cmon man..LOL Its called the media Michael! Accuweather!!..LOL
MichaelSTL Alec have you 2 look at my maps on my blog today at all?
hi 03
88. Alec
Yes bob....I dont know how accuweather knows so much a whole 10 days in advance!lol Remember that the GFS did terribly a few weeks ago in our local forecasts? Now yes it is a great model but 300 hrs in advance come on!lol
Personally, I Feel Accuweather does a diservice when they over-hype model predicitions. The General Public can become de-sensitized with "The-Sky-Is-Falling-AGAIN" Speculations & Viewers are less likely to heed actual storm warnings.
Report on the Forecast Models & Warn of Imminent Danger Yes, But Sensationalize NO!

Last July, A Segment on Your World with Cavuto on Fox featured Dr. Joe Bastardi. Just After Emily made Landfall in Mexico, He was "forecasting" that 3 "blobs" in the Atlantic would form into Franklin, Gert & Harvey. These Storms would then, by his estimatation, make landfall at cat1-3's along FL's East Coast...Around Approximately where Frances & Jeanne had in 2004.

Needless to Say, Franklin-Gert&Harvey were all Fishie Storms! The Worst Damage inflicted was from Accuweathers' forecasting & frightening already anxiety-prone East Coast Residents. WU Bloggers watched the Reality of those Models, but Accuweathers predicitions were really out in left field.

(off the Soap Box & BTW almost Elvised Th TV on that One!)
90. Alec
Yes FLCracker....not to say they do it all the time, but I guess that's one way to draw on curiosity to their site....
Yeah I wathed Bastardi hype Gamma last year, then when it fizzled he just stopped talking about it.
I'm so not ready for this hurricane season to begin, it just feels like last hurricane season just ended, everyone down here on the MS Gulf Coast is mentally not ready im sure, and there are sooo many FEMA trailers around even on the beach along Hwy 90 where houses and mansions once were, its gonna be a hard year if we're threated or hit with even a Cat 1
Gert was a fish storm? I don't think so... Link

Maybe it is a fish storm if it does not strike the U.S, even if it strikes another country (if I am reading you correctly)...
gfs is still putting an eastpac system off to the south of mexico later this week. it isn't going all out with it, but I'm thinking that if it develops it will intensify some with the help of the upper ridge progged over the area . there's an upper low currently in the gulf, with a weak surface feature to its southeast over the yucatan (it does have a mid-level low with it. the upper jet max over that thing is better than 50kt, so it won't do anything. not enough moisture in the shelter zone under the upper low... the vertical temp contrast is too low for it to get a hybrid low going.
this other feature has been appearing for a couple of days now so worth mentioning... GFS develops a tropical cyclone north of panama on june 1 and takes it due north across cuba and along the east coast the first weekend of june. such a feature will be MORE likely if the eastpac system develops and goes nuts... should amplify the upstream pattern, increase the diffluence at the base of the upper jet max on its eastern flank, and maybe develop a helper upper low west of the potential disturbance. in other words, i'll start believing in it if the eastpac system forms and does more than the models say it might. its ten days out, and early in the season, so it's a maybe maybe not type of situation and this is all just my 2 cents nothing more nothing less guys
95. Alec
Lets hope GPTGUY that one doesn't hit your area(or any area for that matter)...but we will just wait and see...
96. WSI
I have said this before, and I will say it again... Accuweather is very commercial. They get paid by turning over hits and getting people to sign up to their services. They get those by making things interesting (read, hype). Joe has been spot on before on some calls, but wildly off on others... just like every other forecaster in the world. He is no different, but to hear Accuweather talk about him, he knows what the weather will do before IT knows. I use to look at their site some, but once they started pushing that ridiculous weather bill, and turned the hype up, I saw the light and moved on.
hot this weekend in Tally huh Alec!
98. WSI
Continuing about accuweather... look at their main page. They are calling for a major hurricane to slap the northeast. Sure they have some history and some facts, but no one can say it will happen.

Joe says..
"The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane, and with the weather patterns and hydrology we're seeing in the oceans, the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the Northeast is not a question of if but when."

So they are going to get one because they are overdue? Georgia has been overdue, but that doesn't mean they are going to get one. Just seems like hype to me.
99. Alec
yup GPTGUY...and by the way your buoy's SST has risen into the mid to upper 70's...
yeah been checking it all weekend..thanks Alec

hot here too Fri-91 Sat-90 Sun-86 today-89
Post 100!!
I've been home all day today (day off) and this has been all of the talk on Fox News Channel....they stress we must be prepared!

102. Alec
Right WSI.....The Big Bend is wayyyyyyy overdue for a major hurricane landfall as well, doesnt necessarily mean it will get hit this yr!(but with our wacko climate you can never be 100% sure it cant happen)
I could have missed it but like leelee75k asked, where can i find info on the Bermuda High and how it is setting up for this year? (BTW, I have maybe posted 1 or 2 questions on this blog but I faithfully read it everyday. Yall gave me a "peace of mind" during RITA when we evacuated to Shreveport. Luckily someone in Shreveport had an unprotected wireless router and we knew more about what was going on in LC by reading this blog than ANYWHERE else on the web. So THANK YOU!!)
Yeah Accuweather is mostly hype for commerce, but that's no different than anything else in the media. Notice how all the news people are yelling the news at you nowadays like a sportscaster on drugs or the oxiclean guy.
105. Alec
Hey Iam,
Here's a link. The brighter oranges and reds mean higher pressure(hence the Bermuda High in the Atlantic region) and the dark blues mean lows..
Fuel stabilizers are like any product; better quality ones do the trick and you never notice while the cheap ones trash your fuel system. Here in California, where we are supposed to be prepared for the "Big One" (earthquake, that is), I keep our generator's fuel with a stabilizer that is manufactured by the engine maker--in this case, Briggs and Stratton. We rotate the fuel every 9 months and so far have had no trouble, either in the generator, or a truck (or a lawn mower or a mini-tractor, or whatever other gasoline engines we've use it on). Helps to buy quality fuel as well, not the cheap stuff from the Brand X station at the corner.
Root, you need to look at surfac analysis maps to determine where the high is. THe theory is that this year it will set up further E meaning more E coast/NE Gulf storms. At least how I understand/what I have been told.

I have lots off good links for tropical infor as well as surface analysis on my site. Please check it out.

StormJunkie.com

SJ
I remember that awful storm surge flooding in the big bend last year during Dennis
By the way, using the sea-level pressure animations are not quite enough; they don't tell you is there actually is a cyclone, much less if it is a tropical cyclone (symmetric warm-core), or the exact forecast track.
MichealSTL, I Stand Corrected Gert, not minimalizing...It was A LONG Season.

The intermediate "blob" from mid-july Bastardi was forecasting as Pre-Gert was an Eastern Atlantic/Cape Verdi System that fizzled into nothingness from Saharan Dust. Blobbie was Fishie Foder.
A comment/question........

I notice "jcxt's" post indicating previous early predictions have been off the mark and below what actually happened. That is my question. What was the number of total storms predicted by the Colorado State team last year at the beginning of the season? Does anyone remember?

It seems Dr. Gray updated his prediction at least once and perhaps twice during the hurricane season.

Also, what were the probabilities as of June 1, 2005, that a major storm would strike the central Gulf Coast? Were they higher or lower than the probablilities being forecast this year?

I don't have a scientific background in this; I'm just interested. I have learned a lot from reading all the info posted by those who understand all the scientific and technical material. I appreciate the explanations given by several of you when you post more advanced information. It is very educational!

BTW, has anyone heard anything from STORMTOP this year?

steelmagnolia



113. Alec
Yes GPTGUY, the Big Bend has been refered to as the some of the worst storm surge areas(along with NO and Tampa Bay)....
Stormtop? Just look at some of the older blogs for the past week...
Alec I think the last hurricane to affect the big bend was Kate in Nov. 1985
Alec..Oh ok. I didn't know that high was THE bermuda high. So how much does the BH shift during hurricane season?
StormJ...I already had your page bookmarked!!!
I'm going to ask questions this time instead of just read.
yeah the MS Coast is right up there also

Posted By: TampaSteve at 5:01 PM GMT on May 22, 2006.
Not quite as bad as what I was saying last week in the "La Nia is gone" thread...

Posted By: TampaSteve at 5:53 PM GMT on May 12, 2006.
TampaSteve's early "off-the-cuff" predictions for Hurricane Season 2006:

18 Named Storms
12 Hurricanes
Of those 12 hurricanes...
9 will reach Cat 2
5 will reach Cat 3
3 will reach Cat 4
2 will reach Cat 5

In other words, I predict we will have (at max intensity) 2 Cat 5s, 1 Cat 4, 2 Cat 3s, 4 Cat 2s, 3 Cat 1s, and 6 Tropical Storms in the 2006 season.


The problem with your prediction is category 2 hurricanes have dissapeared off the records. There used to be a linear projection, kind of a pyramid, with lower numbers being larger than higher category storms. That ceased some years ago. Either storms reach Tropical Storm level or cat 1, then collapse, or they skyrocket right through category two to higher numbers.

This is the peak-strength record for 10 years (1995-2004)
1995 : TS=8, C1=4, C2=2, C3=2, C4=3
1996 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=0, C3=4, C4=2
1997 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=0, C3=1
1998 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=4, C3=1, C4=1, C5=1
1999 : TS=4, C1=0, C2=3, C3=0, C4=5
2000 : TS=7, C1=5, C2=0, C3=1, C4=2
2001 : TS=6, C1=5, C2=0, C3=2, C4=2
2002 : TS=8, C1=1, C2=1, C3=1, C4=1
2003 : TS=9, C1=3, C2=1, C3=2, C4=0, C5=1
2004 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=1, C3=2, C4=3, C5=1
----------------------------------------------------
Totals number of each category
in each year of record segment
Totals TS= 8+4+5+4+4+7+6+8+9+5= 60 Tropical Storms
Totals C1= 4+3+1+3+0+5+5+1+3+1= 26 Hurricanes Category 1
Totals C2= 2+0+0+4+3+0+0+1+1+1= 12 Hurricanes Category 2
Totals C3= 2+4+1+1+0+1+2+1+2+2= 16 Major Hurricanes Category 3
Totals C4= 3+2+0+1+5+2+2+1+0+3= 19 Major Hurricanes Category 4
Totals C5= 0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+1+1= 2 Major Hurricanes Category 5

Look at 2005, record year. All of the storms that hit category 2 except one of them, streaked past to become major hurricanes, and the most powerful storms are 4 times the number of cat 2s.
2005 : TS=13, C1=7, C2=1, C3=2, C4=1, C5=4

This aligns with Prigogine's physics, and Rene Thom's mathematics, that weather is non-linear. Up to a certain density of energy, the storms have linear progression, then as more energy is stored in the system far from equilibrium a "birfurcation point" leading to a "catastrophe" occurs. The system re-adjusts itself by a rapid transformation into a high-rate energy dissipation engine. This was seen in Wilma, Katrina, Rita, and last week with Chanchu, where a category 1 hurricane becomes a 3 or higher in a matter of a few hours. Charlie went from cat 2 to cat 4 in the space of two hours.

Category 2 is an unstable state for hurricanes, and they will either be smaller or larger, but they have a hard time staying at category 2.
119. Alec
Iam, it is a general map but the Bermuda high is VERY tough to pin down months in advance because it does migrate or weaken(fluctuations) in response to other atmospheric conditions such as a trough...
Whoa, nice observation, SC!
Northeast Florida is waaaaay overdue. I've gotten away for 10 years now not having to buy plywood. And this time every year I contemplate buying some in preparation. Seeing that strike probability graphic on Accuweather.com only reassures me that NEFL is in the clear again this year...or that Accuweather hyping the Northeast as this season's pin cushion is just dangerous hype.

B
SC - Can you just post a link to your blog instead of pasting it here (like what StormJunkie does)? Maybe I will do that too...
Accuweather has always hyped the NE being hit because they're based there, so the alarmism makes for good patronship.
124. Alec
rxse7en, here's a repost from earlier:

This is from the 2006 prediction release report and is exactly why saying a particular region is at low risk months in advance isn't good advice:

"1) It is currently not possible to confidently predict at these extended ranges the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes, or whether a particular locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Therefore, residents and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions should always maintain hurricane preparedness efforts regardless of the overall seasonal outlook."


Alec..regarding the exp. forecast link you posted...in the FIELD column, which map do you usually choose in the drop-down menu?
Amazinwxman, I liked the analysis..lets see how it pans out.
127. Alec
Iam,
I mainly use the default setting "Sea Level Pressure"......I do know it doesnt distinguish between cold core and warm core lows but we all know if there's a hurricane in the Yucatan Channel for example, it HAS to be warm cored(using logical reasoning)
Root It Depends on what you want to see Root. For cyclone formation 850mb Vorticity is good. To see highs and lows use the surface pressure. Those are the two I use most often.

I ask a lot of questions also. lol.

SJ
Absolutely! Thank you for the info!
Remember - if you are looking for something that has not actually developed yet, you also need to look at this to see if there is even a cyclone, much less a tropical cyclone (see the help to determine how to detect a tropical cyclone); in short, it is a symmetric warm-core system, the deeper, the stronger. Also, pressures for tropical cyclones are inaccurate due to the coarse resolution (the eye is much smaller than the resolutions of even the best models).
Oh, the phase analysis also shows the exact track as well and allows you to compare the models.
StormJ..thanks! i dont know how many questions you ask but i know you answer quite a few.
Thank You , MichaelSTL

CSU Predictions - 31 May 2005

15 Named Storms
8 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

Looks a lot like what they are saying about this year! GULP!!

Woa..STL..that's a cool link. I haven't seen that one.
135. FLUSA
I have some first hand water temp info for the Carribean. I was on the Mariner of the Seas trip where they guy drank too much and fell off. As far as water temp goes the Bahamas was not too hot, cool as a matter of fact at first but then warmed up as I look at about 50,000 fish. As I swam around St. Thomas and St. Johns (Best beach I ever saw in my life by the way, Honeymoon Beach)the water was very warm almost like bath water, seemed to be almost the same temp as the air. St Maarten was also very very warm and extremely salty. I know that is not very scientific, but I don't think the waters around the Bahamas are very hot just yet. I live in Orlando and hope for no direct hits this year by a Hurricane, maybe a tropical storm or two to bring our water levels up.
ScienceCop's Answer Permalink:

Posted By: MichaelSTL at 8:19 AM CDT on May 22, 2006.
ScienceCop - please stop making your gigantic posts or I will mark them. You only need one sentence to get your point across, not an essay.


MichaelSTL,
Your comments are answered in my blog. Use the Permalink to post your comments.

---------------
ScienceCop's Answer Permalink:

Posted By: ForecasterColby at 4:57 AM GMT on May 21, 2006.
Oh boy ScienceCop, you've just given me quite a treat. Not a whole lot of people give such heavily researched and yet wrong posts ;)


ForecasterColby,
Your comments are answered in my blog. Use the Permalink to post your comments.

---------------
Heres the Reynolds SST Analysis (with SST Anomaly) from the NWS. The Anomaly chart is low key in the gulf and somewhat more colorful up the east cost. Recent runoff and surface winds (or lack thereof) playing some roles, no doubt.

The system now just crossing the 20th parallel over the Yucatan
is interesting, if for nothing else, whats ahead and its general direction of movement.




The major factor in how intense and active a hurricane is how how much of the sun's ionized energy get's delivered to our atmosphere not water temperature.






Ionized energy? What are you talking about?
Interesting about the tropical storm the GFS is forecasting--incidentally if made landfall as a hurricane, it would be the earliest hurricane landfall on record in the US.

Water temps are still too cool off the GA/SC coasts though.
141. Alec
Actually the main factors would include SST's(deep heat content is even better than a shallow layer), low wind shear, moisture, coreolis effect..(which is why hurricanes spin in the first place),upper level high....The stronger the hurricane the more fragile it is to sustain it...
Does anybody have any idea what prioris means by "ionized energy"? The only thing that I can think of is solar wind particles, and those mainly have an effect at the poles (auroras, which are very high up and have no effect on weather).
143. Alec
Hurricanes derive their energy from the ocean(which is stored by the sun's energy), and get released in huge amounts(enough is produced in one day to sustain the entire electrical power needs of the world for 200 days!) The main reason for hurricanes is to release heat into the polar regions...
144. Alec
I have no clue what ionized energy is Michael...that post lost me:( I'm taking chemistry now so not too familiar with ions, and deep compounds....
The main factor in tropical genesis is sea surface temperatures and how deep that warm water is stored below the surface. The oceans heat up because the sun beats down on them.
I was hoping that he would see my post and provide an explanation, but it looks like he just posted and ran off...
I gotta say, I'm not loving that graph. The asymetry of the "normal" zone, the arbitrary orange "era" lines, the convenient cutoff of the first "era" ... it looks designed to advance a theory irregardless of the actual data.

what is interesting is that the low period seemingly corresponds to the period of maximum "solar dimming" from particulate pollution recently discussed. It could be sheer coincidence, but I think it bears more study. The graph really makes me think that there was supposed to be a swelling of hurricane energy that got knocked down from 1982-1986 - it would make it the only part of the graph that actually looked cyclical.
Is there any chance the shear over the gulf will relax and some development happens?
Ions are atoms which have picked up or lost electrons to give them a charge--and are part of ionic bonding in chemical compounds. They can also exist in the solar atmosphere when atoms have gained so much energy that one or more electrons have been emitted or knocked away by photons with a high energy content (chiefly ultraviolet and up) Ionic energy does not exist.
I find it interesting that "historically" 1992 was a near average year, but we had a cat 5 storm hit south Florida. I guess an above average season does not necessarily mean an above average strong storm year.
Finally, a definite maybe on hurricane activity for 2006. At least the hurricanes give 'us, Texans" something to talk about except the drought plus the endless days of hot, hot and more hot. I now play thunderstorm cd's to remind me what rain sounds like. I went fishing last week and caught 3 catfish but had to throw them back because they had too many ticks on them. (That's a joke, folks, in case you missed it.) :)
southbeach, 1960 was similar in that a catastrophic hurricane made landfall and caused hurricane force winds in much of Florida, the Carolina coast, the mid-atlantic coast and New England--while the season as a whole was below normal.
Thinking the "Ionized Energy" Comment is a Star Trek/Star Wars techno Babble Reference (ie, joke).
Prioris Please Explain If Otherwise...

Googled "ionized energy" and found Teh Captian's Blog. This site is as Disturbed as WeatherWars.com LOL
*the
MichaelSTL and atmosweather i am back on my blog
Cajun
It does look like the shear will relax a little over the next few days, but not a lot.

Development doubtful IMO.

SJ
I doubt it, Cajun. There's a bubble of low shear but it's moving along with very high areas to either side.
Who wants to untangle this mess? LOL..

Woops.
Good Monday evening everyone, just a quick check in to catch up!

Will check back in tomorrow. Dr Master's Thanks again for the update!
I have said this before, and I will say it again... Accuweather is very commercial. They get paid by turning over hits and getting people to sign up to their services.

i'm a Premium Accuweather refugee, having dumped the subscription service when various individuals on that side started badmouthing global warming as well as any possible connections between warming and tropical storm numbers. i don't expect anyone to do similarly. i switched to wunderground as a paying member.

quite happy i did.

If you click on the Jacksonville radar right now and animate, you can see a really cool looking seabreeze front as it advances inland--faster across FL than GA.
disneylogic welcome how are you today i am daivd
And maybe oneday that front will contain a T-Storm!..LOL I can only hope:(
Anyone want to place bets on the worst two storms of 2006? I claim Florence and Joyce...the ladies are usually the bad ones!

Also, I'm thinking things will start off slow, and get bad later on this year. Anyone else agree?
STSIMONS..

that sure is a kool looking seabreeze front
thanks
acduke

i agree with start slow end w/a bang
Was up gang!! Seabreeze to trigger later this week!
I say the men have it this year Duke. Have not decided which ones yet.


SJ
Get fresh info here.
can someone explain this imagery?

Some people are confused about the graphs from this site; I got an email from somebody about whether it shows the moving average or not.

For example, wind shear:



The thin blue line that zigzags up and down is the average shear over the area mentioned, in this case, the tropical Atlantic and the thick black line is the climatological (expected value) of wind shear as averaged over the entire area (not the moving average; is you look at some of the other graphs, that is impossible). Because this shows the average, this means that one area could have 100 kts of shear while most of the area has 10 kts of shear for an average of 30 kts (or whatever).
UL low 456...With about 50kt. of shear over it. No chance of tropical development. Looks ominous but don't get too excited.
That shear is slowing down, and on the water vapor loop it definately shows signs of developing a cyclonic warm core.
hopefully that ULL will bring some much needed rain (w/out lightning strikes) to FL as we are parched here.
sobedude, actually 1992 was a slightly below-normal year. Only 6 'canes. Hard to remember that when all you remember is picking up the pieces...
if any of u guys missed it here is my site:

Link

it will have live info during cane season for the whole globe and it already has hurricane information and a preparedness guide.
Had to pass this on:

http://time.blogs.com/daily_dish/2006/05/i_call_it_funny.html
16 day operational GFS indicates warm-core low development towards the end of its forecast period...near FL. Don't take it too literally...it won't happen the way it's indicated by the GFS now...but this does indicate that conditions are ripe for development.
The real question is if it is even worth it to look at a 16 day model. I don't think we have a understanding of anything that far in advance.

SJ
16 day GFS is a shot in the dark SJ.
182. WSI
"16 day operational GFS indicates warm-core low development towards the end of its forecast period."

What site or link are you using to determine its warm core?
Good question; these models only go out 6 days (144 hours).
184. WSI
Exactly Michael.
This map shows a pool of water up to 30C off the GA/SC coast.

Sure seems like there's not a lot of agreement between these SST maps. However, I still point to the buoy readings from the Grays Reef and St. Augustine buoys, which are both outside the western edge of the stream and both read 77-78F today. Thats much higher than the 72-74 readings some of those maps show in the Gulfstream itself.
Oops, wrong blog. :D
188. WSI
Yeah SJ, but it doesn't determine if its a warm core ot not.
189. mobal
long range models, fun to look at, not all that accurate.
I would think that with all of the variables offered on that site you could tell a cold core non tropical system, from a warm core system.

SJ
191. WSI
Fair enough SJ, I am just asking how.
192. mobal
SJ, Like your site. Good job, Is it Front page?
193. Daveg
I'll be back tomorrow afternoon with an analysis of the new TV ads being run by the Competive Enterprise Institute procaiming that "Greenland's glaciers are growing, not melting", and "the Antarctic Ice sheet is getting thicker, not thinner." We'll see that these statements are dubious half-truths, at best.

Looks like you've already made up your mind, and I don't look for an un-biased option based on your comment above. As a matter of fact, I can probably already guess your conclusion, even though there are numerous sources of other data to both backup and refute what the ads are saying.

Truth is, the planet is too dynamic. Yes, it is warmin, but how much is human influences? How much is the sun, ocean currents, plants/animals, winds, weather patterns, natural cycles, etc to blame? Unknown. 100 years of data is just not enough.
Another who has not faced the truth yet, even after the recent releases... I cannot believe that there are still some people that do not believ that global warming is occurring (they even said that that was a big factor in last year's hurricane season, an will be this years as well, and eventually, it will reach the point where even the inactive AMO cannot reduce the SSTs enough to produce normal or below normal hurricane seasons).
195. Daveg
You did not read my post did you, you are so blind that you just ignore what I said.

Re-read the post please. I did agree warming is occuring (misspelled as warmin), but that there are simply too many dynamics at work.

Sure we should continue to contain human influences, but you can't discount all the other research just because YOU don't agree with it. It is a big planet, an many factors including sun cycles are at work.

You realize the planet went through a mini-ice age in the 1300s, without any human influence into the dynamic at all.

So, all I am saying is we still don't know for sure WHAT is causing the warming or HOW MUCH humans are effecting it. You should read more.
All (or almost all) scientists agree that we are doing something; NOAA even says so.
198. Daveg
Again, I didn't say we weren't doing "something", there is no agreement or data on exactly what or how much.

Nor is there agreement on how much is part of a natural cycle.

So, again, while we are probably influencing the warming, we have no idea if we are 1% of the problem, or 90%...no idea at all.

Daveg,

1300 was actually part of the medieval warm period. The mini-ice age you are referring to was from the 1500s-1800s.
200. Daveg
Whoops, my bad, got em confused.
I think that this is very important (from the article):

The core clearly shows a distinctly cold period about AD 10001100, nicely illustrating the fact that "MWP" is a moveable term, and that during the "warm" period there were, regionally, periods of both warmth and cold.

The medieval warm period appears to be more of a regional event than a global event (as today's warming is).
202. Daveg
Point was, that these can't be explained simply, and the mini-ice age was not a "regional" event.

In any case, again, while I do believe warming is occuring. I won't let myself be blinded to ALL the data. There is simply too much at play. You want to blame humans only, fine, probably for political reasons. I'd rather stay out of that, and look at the entire picture.

Good discussion, you all have a great night.
hey Daveg, there's lots of us who have a variety of opinions on Global Warming - we try to keep them off this main blog and thrash it out in Fshhead's blog on that topic. Come for a visit, ok?
Its not Global Warming! It's hyperdimensional enegry channeling!

Link

(and no I dont believe in hyperdimensional hurricanes, but they have there own theory as to why we will see more cat 5's in the future. The photo's of geometric shapes in hurricane eyes was neat.)

Found the previous link while reading this Symetrical Holes in Water. They think it may explain geometric shapes in weather systems.
SafeInTexas - thanks for making me laugh (sites like the one in your first link are just so ridiculous)!
206. Inyo
Who's blaming only humans? I believe that natural warming and human-influenced warming are both happened.. and i think human influenced warming is a good reason (among many others) to reduce fossil fuel use. you said yourself we could be causing 90% of the warming... if its even a chance, we need to take it seriously.

and Dr Masters was addressing whether or not the icecaps are melting in that paragraph, not the cause.
Wow, that is one of the most amusing, and completely rediculous things I have read in a while, though.

I wonder who comes up with these crackpot ideas.

The patterns inside the eyes of some hurricanes are very strange.

My personal explanation (I have not done the research on this, and it could be completely wrong) as to why these "patterns" form is this:

The lower level winds are pulled towards the center of the storm. As the low level winds move towards the center, they scrape (couldn't think of a better word) the bottoms of the clouds surrounding the eye, and move them directly into the eye itself.
I am sure that there are a lot of theories floating around about the number 2 in Wilma's eye at Florida landfall.
Posted By: snowboy at 3:18 AM GMT on May 23, 2006.
hey Daveg, there's lots of us who have a variety of opinions on Global Warming - we try to keep them off this main blog and thrash it out in Fshhead's blog on that topic. Come for a visit, ok?

LOL. yea I guess we do "kinda" thrash it out on my blog!!!!!!!!!
Like I have ALWAYS said.... I welcome BOTH sides of the argument even though those sides usually clash LOL!!!!!!!I must sound like a broken record by now BUT, you guys should check out HBO'S "To hot NOT to handle" on the warming issue!!!!!!! LOL I have showtimes listed on my blog for your viewing convienence.
East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230922
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0400 AM PDT TUE MAY 23 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

211. K8e1


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
341 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2006

VALID 12Z SAT MAY 27 2006 - 12Z TUE MAY 30 2006

TELECONNECTIONS W/A POSITIVE ANOMALY DRIFTING NWD THRU WRN BERING
SEA FAVORS TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND WRN ATL. THE COMBINATION OF
THIS ANOMALY W/A BURGEONING EAST-WEST POSITIVE ANOMALY MOVG THRU
THE GRTLKS TWDS NEW ENGLAND ALLOWS FOR A CLOSED CYC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PD. THE MODELS THAT FIT THIS IDEA THE BEST
ARE THE 00Z NCEP ENSMEAN AND 00Z ECMWF...AND THE 00Z ECMWF WAS
USED FOR THE PRESSURES THIS PD WHICH KEEPS DECENT CONTINUITY. THE
00Z GFS SOLN OF AN UPR CYC STUCK ACRS THE MID ATL WAS SUPPORTED BY
ONLY 1 OF ITS 12Z/18Z NCEP ENSMEMBERS AND IT DOES NOT FIT
TELECONNECTIONS...SO IT WAS DISMISSED.

ROTH


Got a curious question for everyone. Alot of places I have read that 200 MPH winds is about as strong as a hurricane can theorically get in the best of conditions. However any thoughts on what is the theroically low pressue limit of a hurricane? I know Typhoon Tip had a pressue of 870mb and Hurricane Wilma had one of 882.
Orion ... I think the maximum winds a hurricane can sustain have to do with the maximum heat transfer between ocean water and air at optimal conditions that are found on earth.

The theoretical max of 200 mph might be significantly different if:
1. Ocean water were much warmer or colder than it is currently.
2. Standard air pressure was much different than 29.92 inHg
3. The ocean were made of a material other than H20.
4. The atmosphere had a different temperature profile that was more conducive to convection up to 30km.

I was going to send some links too, but I ran out of time, work calls.
newt3d,

Sorry I should have specfically stated under normal climate conditions. I know that if the climate conditions or short term conditions where very abnormal all rules are out the windows. I know hurricanes on other planets are stronger and bigger (ie not the best example but the Great Red Spot on Jupiter). I also know that computer sims of hypercanes have been done ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypercane )
Wikipedia says that Camille may have made landfall with 205 mph winds. Link

Specifically, this line:

In the hours before landfall, a reconnaissance aircraft was unable to obtain a surface wind report, but it estimated winds of up to 205 mph (335 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 901 mbar.
Wow, Hypercane... 500mph winds. Sounds fun. But I mean, if an asteroid were to hit a body of water substantial enough to spawn a hurricane and warm it to the point of forming a monster such as that there will cetainly be a tsunami and everyone along the coast will already be dead. So the hypercane will be a regular hurricane by the time it got inland enough to cause further dammage.
By the way, the GFS shows a tropical storm or hurricane in the East Pacific making landfall in Mexico (I have been following this for 3-4 days now, and the NHC mentions it as well).
120 F water and 500 mph storms are unlikely, but if global warming raises the temperature worldwide by 5 C (9 F), then this means that oceans could reach 100 degrees or more and 300 mph+, sub 800 mb storms could form.
Thanks Michael, I guess I'll follow that aswell.
You can see the East Pacific disturbance in the lower right corner here.
221. gecko
So, I'm curious. I don't see much mention of the 3 or 4 potential storms off Cape Verde that were squelched by African dust. There was a lot of dust last year and as an avid watcher of the West African Coast infrared, it seemed to have put the brakes on some serious storm formation. If the dust is lower this year, the storm count off Cape Verde could go up even if the water temps are lower.
Hey, this may seem out of the blue... But is it possible for La Nina to return?
I read an internet article not long ago that cat 5 storms make 150ft waves on the open ocean, with just 200 mph winds. It is not documented because bouys are not surviving these storms, but some oil rigs and exploratory vessels are recording this.
Orion,

So if I understand your question, you want a theoretical minimum pressure for a hurricane on present-day earth under optimal conditions.

I'd say Typhoon Tip was about at the theoretical minimum. The West Pacific has a lower average pressure than other basins, so storms of equal "strength" would have a lower pressure in the West Pacific.

Tip was a huge storm though. With the pinhole eye phenomenon, maybe other cat5 storms have had a lower pressure over a very small area for brief periods of time.

As a side note, does anybody know what determines the radius of the eyewall? Or the size of a storm?
225. RL3AO


Does anyone else think this picture looks intersting?
What's that low in the West Gulf up to? It looks to me like it might be trying to form a weak hybird type system. There's a lot of dry air around it and a bunch of frontal stuff to the east, but I see a tiny bit of convection flaring up, and the shear looks "relatively" low.
227. RL3AO
Discussion for the EPac

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W TO THE S OF 14N AND HAS MOVED W AT
12 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRES THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY 3N TO 13N BETWEEN
103W AND 83W. SEVERAL OTHER CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED ON IMAGERY
INCLUDING ONE NEAR 11N99W THAT IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE LOW PRES
1009 MB BUT IS DISORGANIZED. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N94W.
Who spread all the aluminum foil on top of those clouds?
Franck, please don't give cyclonebuster any more ideas ...
newt3d,

Bingo, excatly the question I was asking.

To take a stab at your question I know that a hurricane is like watching water go down a drain (vast oversimplication I know). So the tighter the drain spot aka eyewall the faster the swirl until it collaspes on itself.

So I would assume it would boil down to how much rotation and energy the eyewall (or center of the low) can attract.
Nearly fifty years ago the US used million candlewatt lights projecting from aerial gunships to illuminate the Vietnamese jungle for targeting. In the pitch black of night a single plane could light up acres of ground brighter than day. Bring that technology forward a half century and put it in outer space, and that may explain something about that photo, or not. At any rate, I've got to change my blog ID now!!
ID Change...LOL Franck
Those are great looking sites turtle and SJ!
Thanks KS.

StormJunkie.com for those who have not seen.

SJ
ScienceCop wrote:

The problem with your prediction is category 2 hurricanes have dissapeared off the records. There used to be a linear projection, kind of a pyramid, with lower numbers being larger than higher category storms. That ceased some years ago. Either storms reach Tropical Storm level or cat 1, then collapse, or they skyrocket right through category two to higher numbers.

This is the peak-strength record for 10 years (1995-2004)
1995 : TS=8, C1=4, C2=2, C3=2, C4=3
1996 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=0, C3=4, C4=2
1997 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=0, C3=1
1998 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=4, C3=1, C4=1, C5=1
1999 : TS=4, C1=0, C2=3, C3=0, C4=5
2000 : TS=7, C1=5, C2=0, C3=1, C4=2
2001 : TS=6, C1=5, C2=0, C3=2, C4=2
2002 : TS=8, C1=1, C2=1, C3=1, C4=1
2003 : TS=9, C1=3, C2=1, C3=2, C4=0, C5=1
2004 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=1, C3=2, C4=3, C5=1
----------------------------------------------------
Totals number of each category
in each year of record segment
Totals TS= 8+4+5+4+4+7+6+8+9+5= 60 Tropical Storms
Totals C1= 4+3+1+3+0+5+5+1+3+1= 26 Hurricanes Category 1
Totals C2= 2+0+0+4+3+0+0+1+1+1= 12 Hurricanes Category 2
Totals C3= 2+4+1+1+0+1+2+1+2+2= 16 Major Hurricanes Category 3
Totals C4= 3+2+0+1+5+2+2+1+0+3= 19 Major Hurricanes Category 4
Totals C5= 0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+1+1= 2 Major Hurricanes Category 5

Look at 2005, record year. All of the storms that hit category 2 except one of them, streaked past to become major hurricanes, and the most powerful storms are 4 times the number of cat 2s.
2005 : TS=13, C1=7, C2=1, C3=2, C4=1, C5=4

This aligns with Prigogine's physics, and Rene Thom's mathematics, that weather is non-linear. Up to a certain density of energy, the storms have linear progression, then as more energy is stored in the system far from equilibrium a "birfurcation point" leading to a "catastrophe" occurs. The system re-adjusts itself by a rapid transformation into a high-rate energy dissipation engine. This was seen in Wilma, Katrina, Rita, and last week with Chanchu, where a category 1 hurricane becomes a 3 or higher in a matter of a few hours. Charlie went from cat 2 to cat 4 in the space of two hours.

Category 2 is an unstable state for hurricanes, and they will either be smaller or larger, but they have a hard time staying at category 2.


Interesting statistics...but I'm still standing by my predictions. Bookmark this page and come see me in December.
236. WSI

SJ, I never did see how to determine the status of a low pressure system past 144 hrs (cold or warm core). Maybe someone with more experience can enlighten us.



While we are talking websites..

Click here
to see my new weather page.

It contains all kinds of useful links.
Invest in the East Pacific; it looks like I may be right about my prediction of an East Pacific storm or hurricane (I have been seeing tropical lows form on models for the past week):



GFS forecast
238. jeffB
franck wrote:

Ethanol from corn is no answer to the thirst for oil. And neither is ethanol derived from cellulose. The strength of industry is measured in horsepower. The economy car has at least a hundred, freightliners five times that, and industrial plants tens of thousands, even millions of horsepower turning the wheels of industry. Think about how much corn must be grown and fermented to feed all those horses. You could grow corn on every square inch of arable land in America and only produce a small percentage of the fuel needed to drive the country's industry. It's a dream.

And we use much of our energy to generate uncounted billions of lumens of lighting! Imagine how much vegetable matter you'd need to feed all those fireflies! :-)

There's some validity to your point, though. See, for example, this Wikipedia page:

# 3.327 TW - Geo: average total (gas, electricity, etc) power consumption of the U.S. in 2001
# 3.6-7.2 TW - Eco: global photosynthetic energy production
# 13.5 TW - Geo: average total power consumption of the world in 2001

In other words, the US alone consumes perhaps half as much energy per year as the [i]entire biosphere[/i] captures from sunlight!
239. jeffB
RL3AO, that bright spot looks like a specular sunlight reflection to me. No tinfoil required, either on cloud tops or hat tops. :-)
Here is a link to one persons input on use and stoarge of a generator and storing fuel for the same. Although it is a bit mundane for anyone with a lot of experience in the area, for new owners and the un-seasoned it has some good info. I'm a chemist, and spend a lot of time working on oil formulations for various applications relating to hydraulics and internal lubrication of engines. If their is one piece of advice I can give and know what I am talking about, it is too make sure you have adequate oil on hand for keeping the generators topped off. Also, make sure it is the best oil you can get your hands on (if you can source a good synthetic go with it). The last thing you want is for the generator gods to tear away your one source of power at the worst time possible due to thermal breakdown.

Finally, one little extra bit of information on storing fuel in cans.... Regardless of if you use a fuel stabilizer or not (if you don't your crazy), always fill your fuel can up to the neck of the can (works for fuel tanks on equipment too). Yes, it does make it harder to pour the fuel out. The plus to it is, that it reduces the available surface area to be exposed to the air. By reducing the available surface area, you drastically reduce the rate at which the fuel can absorb moisture. As an example (taken from my own five gallon can in the garage) if the can is filled up to the max fill line I have the entire surface area of the interior can space to allow moisture uptake to occur (4.5 x 14=63 sq in). If I fill the can up further towards the neck (4.5x3.5=15.75 ) then I have reduced the surface area to about 16 sq in. Thus reducing my absortion rate by approximateley 75%. This just helps to slow down the effects of moisture and oxygen on the fuel but will not prevent deterioration.

I use Sta-Bil in my tanks, I always add the double quantity for long term storage, and have nothing bad to say about the product. You can buy a jumbo size bottle at Wally World for a good price back in the automotive section. Fuel stabilizers absorb moisture to a point, but that also means that they "attract" moisture, so make sure the cans are sealed up good and tight (don't leave the vent open, otherwise they will suck water in.

Sorry for the novel...

Link
if i were you guys i would keep and eye on the the disturbance south of the central la coast..its a upper low and it has worked its way down to the middle layer..shear is weak in this area and thunderstorms are going to become more concentrated as times go on..i would say by friday or saturday we could have a depression in the central gulf...all interests from la to alabama should keep in touch with weather conditions especially friday and saturday...i am watching this very closely and i will elert you if there is any change in the intensity of the system...this has been a special bulletin by the stormtops weather office 00056
The Caribbean Sea...
Atlantic ridge remains north of the area producing moderate
trade winds across the Basin. A cluster of moderate/isolated
strong convection is over the SW Caribbean associated with a
1010 mb surface low over the area.


hey DR M where your new update and what you make of this any ch or any one
elert us stormtop ELERT US!
RL3AO wrote:

Does anyone else think this picture looks intersting?

Looks like a reflection of the sun off the surface of the ocean to me. Nothing unusual about that.
246. WSI
Umm... that low hasn't really moved down that I can see. Doesn't look much different than yesterday to me.
247. SMU88
Question for anyone: How can a novice like me view where the Bermuda High is? Is there anyway to forecast where it will finally set up?
You can see the Bermuda High here (click on FWD on the right to view a 6 day animation). Here is the main page
It is getting rather ornate down there. I doubt anything substantial will come out - but we need rain and im dying to see if advection can pop that system from the Yucatan out the top of the gulf disturbance. Its a cool watch all that stuff going on at different layers. I wish we had radar out there. Technically it would be useful to consolidate all the ships radars out there real time.
thank you STORMTOP




focker
What strikes me is the remarkable consensus I see among all these forecasts, from the NOAA to Bill Gray to the other bloggers and even to my own unscientific off-the-cuff guess that I posted last November. Almost everyone is calling for 15, 16, or 17 named storms. Either we all end up loooking like whizzes or we all end up with egg on our faces!
Posted By: STORMTOP at 5:56 PM GMT on May 23, 2006.
if i were you guys i would keep and eye on the the disturbance south of the central la coast..its a upper low and it has worked its way down to the middle layer..shear is weak in this area and thunderstorms are going to become more concentrated as times go on..i would say by friday or saturday we could have a depression in the central gulf...all interests from la to alabama should keep in touch with weather conditions especially friday and saturday...i am watching this very closely and i will elert you if there is any change in the intensity of the system...this has been a special bulletin by the stormtops weather office 00056


Nothing is going to come out of that upper level low in the gulf stormtop, and all the moisture associated with it is moving toward florida
stormtop. what happened to that low that was south of cuba that you were talking about a couple of days ago. Isn't it suppose to be drifting NW by now?

also if you want to use the six numbers at the end of your post please use the correctly
i.e. 230637G where 23=day of month 0637G=current time GMT. and really that time should
254. SMU88
Michael what color is the Bermuda HIgh?
correction that should read 231823G. always in military time
bama he just puts those numbers there for no reason, he actually has no idea what they mean
High pressure is usually red or pinkish-purple, or anything higher than 1013 mb; low pressure is blues or dark purples or less than 1013 mb (there is a scale that shows the pressure represented by each color).
ive noticed gptguy...i thought since he likes them so much i would let him now how to correctly use them. After all isn't this suppose to be an educational blog?
Reds yellows and oranges should be high pressure if it is the map I think you are looking at.

SJ

Find other models and surface analysis at StormJunkie.com
If night is approaching as it appears in the right hand portion of the photo, then the Sun at that angle could hardly cast that kind of reflection. I think that was why RL3AO thought it was interesting.
do any of you all think this system in the gulf could pull something like hurricane danny?
Link

read the synopitc histroy real quick and let me know what you think.
bama i just wish he would explain things instead of jumping on here telling people a depression might form, like for example how does he know the upper low in the gulf has made it down to the middle layer...he doesnt explain things like that and when you ask him he doesnt respond and when he does respond he does it rudely
gptguy..well mabye he doesn't want us to know what he knows. they way he can keep his 'edge'.
yeah bama i remember the meso-scale convective complex of thunderstorms that dropped south in the gulf and formed hurricane Danny the thunderstorms started in Eastern Nebraska and made it south all the way to the gulf...I dont remember anything like that happening with the upper low in the gulf
265. WSI
"bama i just wish he would explain things instead of jumping on here telling people a depression might form, like for example how does he know the upper low in the gulf has made it down to the middle layer...he doesnt explain things like that and when you ask him he doesnt respond and when he does respond he does it rudely"


The winds haven't changed their level at all. You look at upper air charts and so forth. Such charts can be found here...

The cyclonic winds are present at 700mb or above, the same place they were yesterday (about 10,000ft at sea level). Nothing is near the surface at all.

266. WSI
I should also say I am not an expert, but I have looked at enough charts and listened to enough people (like Alec and weatherguy03, and many more) to know what is going on.

If I am wrong, someone please say so. :)
well i think the low in the gulf came out of mexico or just formed there. I was just wondering if anybody thought a storm could form out of it assuming it is able to form a surface low, shear dies, and stays over water long enough. Nobody saw Danny forming like it did. Just trying to think out side the box.
so WSI are you saying that its still in the upper layers and not the mid layers like stormtop is saying
WSI your right...those upper air maps you posted a link do show rotation forcasted at 12hr down to 250mb. problem is if forcast it in different places at every level.
270. WSI
Here will also show you that the cyclonic winds are above the 600mb level. The link I gave in the other post shows forecasted levels. The link in this post shows satellite derived winds.
bama this is what Danny formed from and notice the date Link
I wish Dr. M (or someone else here) would explain upper and mid level highs, lows, and wind. Are there layers of weather? I don't quite comprehend how a high can be sitting on top of a low and all that. Anyone?
-NOLA
gptguy,
yea it looked like a tropical storm over land there...i don't think this gulf storm will form. But at the same time I don't feel comfortable not watching just in case.
274. WSI
Everyone can look here to be the judge for yourselves...

Here

An ULL can transition into a surface low pressure, but it takes persistance. It can also transform into a tropical system, but this happens very rarely. For this to happen it does need a good mid-level circulation as well and again persistance. This doesnt have that. Also, this ULL, is forecasted to weaken in the next few days.
youre right bama no matter what anything in the gulf this time of year is worth watching
WSI,

Let me apologize. I am an idiot. I was looking at the aloft pressure maps backwards (i was thinking 200mb was the closest to the ground instead of the highest). Once again sorry I wont let it happen again:). your right now rotation below 600 mb
no instead of now
Everyone should check out Windycane's Blog. It is very moving.
-NOLA
You want the ULL to weaken when the mid level low develops.
Link

I still can't get this link thing right!
282. WSI
"Let me apologize. I am an idiot. I was looking at the aloft pressure maps backwards (i was thinking 200mb was the closest to the ground instead of the highest). Once again sorry I wont let it happen again:). your right now rotation below 600 mb"

No need to apologize. Technically you mean rotation above 600mb. :) In any case, point is, the ULL is an ULL and isn't moving down.
Not to mention that the shear will remain high for the next 4 days over most of the Gulf and W Atlantic. Shear should start to drop off over the W Atlantic and Carib over the next several days, but it looks as if that pesky Saharan dust is back also.

SJ
ok people the low i was talking about on friday south of western cuba has moved nw and ia now located in the central gulf south of the central la coast approx coords are 25.7 92.5..this system has worked its way down to the middle layer and the shear is non existent in this area..this will start to produce thunder storms around the low and it will become more concentratede around the center on friday and saturday..a depression will form and all interests from la to alabama should keep in touch with the weather...This low will not dissipate like glport gut thinks in the next day...the temps are also rising in this area...i would not write this off by any means especially you folks from la to alabama...the trough that is in the rockies now will have a say where this system moves friday and saturday....i am watching this carefully and i do see a threat that could matrialize from this system..i will say it again a depression will form friday or saturday....this has been a bulletin by stormtops weather office...001511
285. WSI
Dust!

There is no surface low pressure in Gulf. The ULL low in the Gulf came from Mexico and moved Eastward.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W TO THE S OF 14N AND HAS MOVED W
AT 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE 1218
UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATING TWO POSSIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATIONS
NEAR 11N98W AND 11N93W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE
EXISTENCE OF BOTH CENTERS. THE CENTER NEAR 11N98W IS ANALYZED AS
A SURFACE LOW PRES 1007 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W AND 101W.

What is the propablity of this weak developing in the Eastern Pacifc?
Ok time for a weather lesson. Here is the current surface map...Link Show me the area of low pressure in the Gulf. Next, ya see that trough of low pressure near the Bahamas. That is what is left of your low that was South of Cuba.
289. WSI
That's interesting Stormtop, the wind shear is slated to increase.

Not to mention that the upper level winds appear to have been weakening over time, and the lower level winds obviously do not exist.

Last time I checked, 30kts of shear is a lot.
290. Alec
Bob lets hope this low will give FL some much needed rain!!!! I do not see a depression out of this, I believe it will weaken with time....
i9 really cant believe you are in meteorology classes you sure dont know any6thing about the gulf...but we will see everyone has opinions even if they are wrong...im trying to warn people to watch the weather especially friday and saturday from la to alabama...i didnt say they had a surface low weatherguy.. a middle level low is not a surface low but in time it will work its way down to the surface and that will be thursda ...the shear is non existent in the area and is expected to stay like that until the strong trough in the rockies begins to move the depression sometime in the weekend...im not going to argue with you people i know what im finding in the gulf now plus my other info from ham opts...please believe me this will develop by friday and saturday...it may not become alberto but a depression can do as much damage as a tropical storm can water wise.....
The East Pacific? I posted on it earlier; here is my post again:

Invest in the East Pacific; it looks like I may be right about my prediction of an East Pacific storm or hurricane (I have been seeing tropical lows form on models for the past week):



Model Forecast (GFS)
stormtop.....what is a depression does not form what are you going to say or do?
well then i guess i shouldnt put the boards on the window's and dust the rain gauge off then because here at my house in Gulfport i've only had 14.92" of rain this year!! btw stormtop its still in the upper levels and its moving towards Florida...
295. WSI
"the shear is non existent in the area and is expected to stay like that until the strong trough in the rockies begins to move the depression sometime in the weekend"

Stormtop, please... where are you finding this information? I want a documented source. Really.

I find things opposite of what you say, and I am just curious what your source is.
ok people the low i was talking about on friday south of western cuba has moved nw and ia now located in the central gulf south of the central la coast approx coords are 25.7 92.5..

So what low are you talking about here? You must be talking about a surface low. Well actually it cant be anything because low pressure didnt move from Cuba to the Gulf!..LOL Oh boy.
weather456...he's gonna do nothing he's gonna ignore it and blab about something else in the tropics...like last year when Emily was making landfall and he said it was gonna drift south in the Bay of Campeche stall out then rapidly move northeast and hit SE Louisiana as a Cat 4!! when we asked him what happened he ignored it
so what are the ch
no question about it .the depression will form sometime friday or saturday..you guys will start changing your tunes by friday...
Chances are <1%. And I am being generous!..LOL

301. WSI
Answer this post Stormtop... don't dodge.








"the shear is non existent in the area and is expected to stay like that until the strong trough in the rockies begins to move the depression sometime in the weekend"

Stormtop, please... where are you finding this information? I want a documented source. Really.

I find things opposite of what you say, and I am just curious what your source is.
Are you talking about the East Pacific? Because I think that is the only place that anything is going to form in the next few days.
weather thats why you need another job...lol you might be able to make it as a comedian...
304. WSI
I see ST is dodging my question. I just want to know what source is saying the shear will NOT increase. I would like to add this source to my weather link page. :)
LOL..Ok ST! Hey, we will be back on Friday to discuss the depression..LOL Take care.
306. Alec
Hey Stormtop I want to see where you're getting your info from........
wsi go to the ir and water vapor it shows the low very clearly...my information on the depression is confidential until i say otherwise...
the tune im hopefully singing friday or saturday is....nah nah nah nah hey hey hey goodbye...b/c if youre wrong i wouldnt post on here much this hurricane season...I still remember Hurricane Emily stormtop...mountain dew came shooting outta my nose
309. WSI
"wsi go to the ir and water vapor it shows the low very clearly...my information on the depression is confidential until i say otherwise..."

Yeah, sure. Top secret!

Please stop. My ribs hurt enough.
310. Alec
Posted By: STORMTOP at 4:34 PM EDT on May 23, 2006.
wsi go to the ir and water vapor it shows the low very clearly...my information on the depression is confidential until i say otherwise

Why should it be top secret?
because his mom will have to take his computer away if he says otherwise
313. RL3AO
It's up to 1.5%!!!

314. Alec
Posted By: Alec at 4:38 PM EDT on May 23, 2006.
Posted By: STORMTOP at 4:34 PM EDT on May 23, 2006.
wsi go to the ir and water vapor it shows the low very clearly...my information on the depression is confidential until i say otherwise

Why should it be top secret?
NO ST YOU SEE MY HAM OPERATOR EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM SAYS A TROPICAL STORM WONT FORM UNTIL AUGUST 17TH NEXT YEAR...ANYONE WHO THINKS THAT ONE WILL FORM SOON KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT THE WEATHER...OK EVERYONE I HAVE TO GO AND STAND FACE TO FACE WITH A LIGHT BREEZE ON TOP OF MY ROOF...I WILL TAKE AMAZING PICTURES...WATCH OUT FOR A SAHARAN DUST STORM TO FORM THIS WEEKEND IN THE CARIBBEAN...THIS HAS BEEN AN OFFICIAL ATMOSWEATHER NWS BULLETIN...001644
well stormtop..we'll see who has the last laugh..I'll be waiting for that depression this weekend
317. WSI
So ST, will you become less confrontational and rude if you are wrong about this depression? :)
318. RL3AO
Wait, it's still at 1%, I thought the dark blue was 1%, but it's .7%.
319. Alec
LOL RICH.....I love comedy.....LOL
BECAUSE I HAVE MY RESONS ALEX AND IF YOU CANT RESPECT THAT WELL ITS TO BAD..
HIS NAME IS ALEC, AND WHAT IS A RESON?
322. Alec
Hey ST it is ALEC not Alex...LOL

yea, go ahead and tell us
324. Alec
So if you have top secret stuff, you dont want anyone to have access to it I suppose...well I dont want it anyways....
By the way, the formation probability map will indicate that something can form if it has up to 64 kts of shear over it!

Link (note that next to shear it says "Genesis threshold < 65kt").
hopefully he will eat some humility pills and give us a break from his arrogance for the remainder of the season.
ok wait a minute no its confidential but a depression WILL NOT form by friday or saturday...im getting this in from GPTGUY weather office..yes a depression will form on THURSDAY all intrests in the SE Louisiana area specifically New Orleans should brace for winds of 35 mph and 2-4" of rain..Ill keep you posted as conditions warrant..this has been a bulletin from GPTGUY weather office...002945
328. WSI
So ST, will you become less confrontational and rude if you are wrong about this depression? :)
329. Alec
So what do models eat ST? Brocoli? meatballs? hairballs?...they seem to be out to lunch a lot!..lol....
Hey Alec and Atmos leave ST alone!!! Now everyone already knows that ST is getting his secret information from either the GREY'S or the REPTILIANS!! Which one is it ST???
EVERYONE...THE INFORMATION THAT I HAVE JUST RECEIVED FROM MY HAM OPERATOR EXTREME WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY CONFIDENTIAL WHICH MEANS YOU MUST NOT TELL ANYONE...A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY FORMING UNDERNEATH SE LA AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE ATMOSPHERE BY FRIDAY...ALL INTERESTS IN NEW ORLEANS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR EXTICNTION...THIS HAS BEEN AN OFFICIAL ATMOSWEATHER NWS BULLETIN...001655
AND WHAT ABOUT YOU WSI ARE YOU GOING TO SAY IT WAS JUST LUCK LIKE KATRINA...I CANT WAIT TO HEAR YOUR EXPLANATION..
333. WSI
Wow, a depression is going to form, and the big commercial outfit hasn't hyped it yet?
There is no low in the Gulf, at least not on here (existing or forecast). I don't know if that site shows upper-level lows though.
Maybe ST flips a coin to decide everyday if a storm will form and hit SE LA.
I dont recall you getting anything right with Katrina stormtop except the SW movement over S Florida...it didnt make landfall as a Cat 5 it didnt make landfall west of Grand Isle or between Pass Christian and Gulfport
337. Alec
I'm certainly enjoying this discussion.......LOL
338. WSI
"AND WHAT ABOUT YOU WSI ARE YOU GOING TO SAY IT WAS JUST LUCK LIKE KATRINA...I CANT WAIT TO HEAR YOUR EXPLANATION.."

My explanation is simple. A broken clock is right twice a day. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut. Take your pick. You were right with ONE prediction. I use Emily as an example of how ridiculous your forecasts are sometimes. You spit in the face of reason, and you get lucky sometimes. The funny thing is, I think you would be cool to talk to if you weren't so arrogant and condescending to people here. You obviously have SOME weather knowledge, which puts you in the same boat as many of the rest of us, yet you think you are somehow better. I only ask for you to quit being so rude, and to explain your off the wall reasoning sometimes. Top secret stuff makes you look even more suspicious.
stormtop...are you Joe Bastardi!! C'mon out we gotcha!! its you isn't it!!
Alec, is that what this is called?
oh lets not bring up katrina again...we just had that discussion two days ago.
LOL GPTGUY!
I still want an answer to my question StormTop; GREY's or REPTILIANS???
344. Alec
Wind speed is exponential in force and so 180 mph is MUCH worse than 135....(for every 10mph increase in wind the force is multiplied by 10)...
345. Alec
GetReal, like last yr he usually didnt respond to my questions and now he says his info is confidential.
There are to weak troughs over the Gulf of Mexico but no closed low at the surface.

Map
I think the ham operator is his mom!
What are the inhibiting factors that will limit this Hurricane season from achieving the magnitude of last years?
No answer to my important question either!!!
350. Alec
yes fredwx, this feature in the Gulf will weaken and most likely not go northward.....The one hope is some rain for SW FL...
thats how its gonna be this year with stormtop...1)rediculous predicitons.2)confrontations.3)no answer.and when nothing happens out of his predicition.4)move on to the next patch of clouds, with no mention of the storm he goofed on before like it didnt exist
Trouper to answer your question; unknown weather variables that change nearly day to day during the hurricane season!!!
The main factor is climatology. There have never been 2 seasons in a row with more than 18 storms. So, even if there is no El Nino, the water temperatures are as high as last year, the shear is lower like last year, and the surface pressures are lower than last year, it is still very very unlikely that 2 record-breaking seasons could occur in a row.
its funny how he keeps bringing up Katrina...like I and everyone else said a blind squirrel can find nuts you say the same thing over and over its bound to happen...I dont see him mentioning his posts on Dennis or Emily from last year...
No because he knows he was so wrong.
356. Alec
The SST's for the Atlantic and Caribbean are a bit lower than this time last yr..
STORMTOPS WEATHER OFFICE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
5 PM CDT TUES MAY 23 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

INTERESTS IN THE GULF SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 5 PM EDT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARDS AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME CATEGORY SIX HURRICANE ALBERTO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN STRIKE SE LA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY STORMTOPS WEATHER OFFICE AT 11 PM CDT.

THIS HAS BEEN A BULLETIN BY STORMTOPS WEATHER OFFICE...005102


LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!
exactly atmos
ROFL Michael!
GPTGUY don't forget that great Rita forecast; Rita was without a doubt going to strike SOUTH TEXAS coast!!! Another missed forecast by ST!!!
361. Alec
I mean, its not bad to be wrong, because we all goof up sometimes...But ST needs to admit when he is wrong and be more RESPECTFUL towards the rest of the forum.....
i havent got to read the archives on Rita from stormtop yet...when he was "issue forcasts" on that i still didnt have power from Katrina!
Another problem with Stormtop is that he is always saying that every single storm will become a Category 6 and then hit SE Louisiana (is there any particular reason why he choose that location).
Alec, I think that lower sst thing is still up in the air. I am not convinced yet.

SJ
365. Alec
Next time he comes on I want him to discuss his Emily forecast from last yr w/us(which I dont recall him ever doing)....
well Michael he's from you guessed it New Orleans!!
alec you have a better chance of a cat 6 hurricane hitting Tallahassee, than ST discussing Emily
So then why does he always want a hurricane to hit him, especially if he lives(ed) in New Orleans?
Yeah SJ you may have a point. I have seen some data that indicates SST are actually warmer in some areas, or about the same as last year. Overall there is very little difference between this and last year regarding SST..
370. Alec
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 5:15 PM EDT on May 23, 2006.
Another problem with Stormtop is that he is always saying that every single storm will become a Category 6 and then hit SE Louisiana (is there any particular reason why he choose that location).


Michael, I think he was wishcasting it to hit his region because he wanted to be RIGHT....sad to say he would rather be right and have a 180mph hurricane hit LA than be wrong......
But no one can forget this:

"ok one day look at the satellite pics and the water vapor charts...the low west of emily shows up quite well and is affecting her movement and causing her to slow down in speed...she is due east of la pesca right now which proves to me emily is moving on a straight 300 heading ...this is bad for upper texas coast because the pressures are falling in the central gulf and that does not look to good for texas...the storm also has come to a majoer slow down in the last 30 minutes...emily will stay longer over water and hit the middle to upper texas coast......

"my scenario for the upper texas coast is starting to look better all the time...emily is stronger then the high right now and i think the low is starting to affect emilys movement and sloe her down like i said earlier..you hear that raindancer...the storm is due east of la pesca...like isaid the computers have taken one hell of a lunch..."

"i checked the pressures in the north central gulf and they have been falling since yesterday..you tell me how can the high be building in now..i think the high will build in but not as fast as they expected causing a major error in the track...i have no faith in the computers"
because Michael you havent figured it out by now..he wants the attention focused squarely on him..every storm last year some way somehow was going to find there way to SE Louisiana..go back and read Dr. M's archive blogs, you'll see
scary for a pony in here since ya'll have taken to beating dead horses again...
atmos dont do this im drinking mountain dew...not again!!
375. Alec
Here's part of his discussion as NO was getting ready to get slammed:

Posted By: STORMTOP at 1:46 PM GMT on August 28, 2005(Actually, 8:46 AM CDT). OK GANG IM
HERE AND READY FOR THE BIGGEST STORM POSSIBLY ON RECORD..THERE IS ONLY ONE STORM WORSE
THEN THIAS ONE THAT IS THE FLA KEYS STORMS...THE PICS I TAKE WILL BE
PHENOMINAL..IT LOOKS LIKE I GOT THIS ONE RIGHT ON THE NOSE HUH
LEFTY

Notice, he's really happy that he was "right"...I am thankful that 180mph sustained winds didnt hit LA and MS...
PLEASE KEEP ALL FOOD AND DRINKS AWAY FROM THE MOUTH AT THIS TIME.
377. RL3AO
Twister down below.

I now it's not a first, but you don't hear about tornados in Austrailia every day.
Yeah skyponey, but that same mule (wanted to use another word) keeps coming back to the perverbial trough again for more!!!
LOL rays!! yeah alec my home and I are very thankful also!!
Another cool-looking seabreeze front moving inland across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Go to radar, click on the Jacksonville radar and animate :)
So your trying to run off the mule...

It's nice to hear all opinions. & the banter as to what info is right is great, but to bring up stuff from last year, demanding humble apoligies for being wrong when we've all been wrong is absolutely uninformative & a waste of this blog space.
Have some info here I thought was pretty amazing. I found out that some FEMA comm guys may not have funding in time for this season to equip with radio interoperability devices. Astounding when it only costs about $20K to put a device in a mobile unit only $8K if you don't get all the bells and whistles. If you don't know what I'm talking about, you may recall the inability of many agencies to talk to each other on 9-11. 5 years on, several disasters later and FEMA still doesn't have the capability as standard. None the less, thanks to the NOAA forcast this week I convinced my boss to fund one, so at least where ever my unit goes we can get it up and pull in who ever needs it.
From the shear patterns and the fact that the little counterclockwise thing in the Gulf is drifting into less favorable environment, and the fact that it's not drawing convection...fizzle. Doesn't even look like a rain maker anymore.
I think STORMTOP is really Joe Bastardi!!
Sound like a possibility.
s
GPTGUY, my dad's been working down in your area off and on, he said it still looks pretty blasted. How is it around you?
Alec wrote:

"Wind speed is exponential in force and so 180 mph is MUCH worse than 135....(for every 10mph increase in wind the force is multiplied by 10)..."

Uh...nope...the wind force goes up as the square of the wind speed...each doubling of the wind speed produces four times the force.
Alberto did not form Friday or saturday as predicted by STORMTOP

So it's sunday and the score for the 2006 Season is:

Mother Nature 1 STORMTOP 0
looking at the trends in the bar graph, we should be due for a slow year.
I got flooded out in SW LA this year and plan to rebuild this summer.
Thier is one problem with the new building codes..no one has a clue what they are.
I'm looking at a lot of mud to buy.
I'm hoping for a slow year....sorry storm lovers