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NOAA Hurricane Hunters update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on March 06, 2009

At the 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) in St. Petersburg, Florida this week, the latest results from the 2008 hurricane research program and plans for the upcoming 2009 campaign were presented by a number of scientists involved in the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration's (NOAA's) P-3 weather research aircraft program. NOAA flies three state-of-the art flying laboratories into hurricanes each year, and 2008 saw their second busiest season ever. The two low-altitude P-3 aircraft flew 39 missions, and the high-altitude G-IV jet flew 23 missions. A total of 1156 dropsondes and 525 expendable ocean probes were launched on these missions, with a particular emphasis on studying the interaction of the Gulf of Mexico ocean currents with Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav. These interactions play a key role in rapid hurricane intensification in the Gulf of Mexico. NOAA's aircraft also caught the genesis of two hurricanes from the tropical wave stage--Dolly and Fay. These data will be used to help improve modeling studies to better forecast when a tropical wave will turn into a tropical depression, something the models aren't very good at now.

For the first time, wind data from the P-3 tail Doppler radar was sent in real time in 2008 for ingestion into an experimental computer forecast model, the WRF-ARW. There are high hopes that this data will lead to a significant improvement in short term (24-48 hour) hurricane forecasts, beginning in 2010. For this year, the testing phase of this project will continue, with the real-time Doppler radar data from both P-3s being ingested into a non-operational version of the HWRF model. The HWRF is one of the most reliable models used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to produce the official forecast, and is receiving a huge amount of development effort in the coming years. If the 2009 test phase goes well, the Doppler P-3 data may go into the operational version of the HWRF model as early as 2010.

NOAA jet getting major upgrades
The NOAA G-IV jet, "Gonzo", is in the process of having a tail Doppler radar installed. The protective radome has already been installed, and the guts of the radar are expected to be added later this year. By 2010, it is expected that Gonzo will have its Doppler radar operational, which should greatly increase scientists' ability to see into the heart of a hurricane, due to the lofty vantage point this radar will have (40,000 high, as opposed to the 25,000 maximum altitude of the Doppler radars on the P-3s). Gonzo has also been fitted with a special version of the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), the extremely valuable surface wind speed instrument carried on all the Air Force C-130 and NOAA P-3 hurricane reconnaissance aircraft. Alan Goldstein of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center reported that testing of Gonzo's SFMR during 2008 showed that the instrument performed well, and NHC will begin receiving the data during the 2009 hurricane season (but the data will probably be for internal NHC use only until more testing is performed).


Figure 1. The NOAA G-IV high altitude weather research jet, "Gonzo". Image credit: NOAA/AOC.

A new P-3 for NOAA
The other big news from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters is the addition of a new P-3, N44RF. In keeping with the theme of naming their aircraft after Jim Henson Company's Muppets characters, the new aircraft will be dubbed "Animal". The "new" P-3 was reclaimed from the "Boneyard" of disused P-3s at Tucson's Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, and "Animal" is currently being refurbished and fitted with state-of-the art weather research instrumentation. Animal is not being fitted with a Doppler radar at present, and it is expected that the aircraft will primarily fly air pollution research missions, freeing up the other P-3s (Kermit and Miss Piggy) for exclusive hurricane work during the six months of hurricane season. Crew for the new P-3 are already beginning to arrive at NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center, and it is anticipated that the new aircraft will be ready to fly in 2010.



Figure 2. Nose art from the WP-3Ds, N42RF and N43RF. Copyright © The Jim Henson Company.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the new update Dr. Masters. Going to be very interested in seeing how all the new changes will affect the forecasting of these storms.

Over the past month, been starting to grow increasingly concerned that yet another drought may impact all Florida as there has been very little rainfall statewide this year (with the exception of the Panhandle with a couple fronts). Well, the latest data has come in from the US Drought Monitoring Services and my suspicions have been confirmed as all Florida is now in some stage of drought, with the worst drought conditions existing in Southeast Florida.


Figure 1 Current Drought Situation in Florida (Source: US Drought Monitor)

Now I have been watching the computer models for the coming two weeks and there seems to be no relief in sight as, at best, there will only be a day or two with an isolated rain chance down here in South Florida over the next couple weeks. Add that to the fact that there was widespread freeze damage across the state due to the unusually cold and dry winter and this is all setting the stage for a very dangerous fire season statewide. I can only pray that rainfall will return to the state. This may be a controversial statement that I'm about to make but its the only hope that Florida has to escape this drought. Florida needs a tropical cyclone this hurricane season.
Eye wall of hurricane IKE as seen from the NOAA P3 hurricane hunter aircraft at 8000 ft altitude on Sept 7th, 2008






























THANKS DR. JEFF.
For the record, it's pretty awesome that the Jim Henson company designed the artwork for the Hurricane Hunters. Much kudos!
1. cchsweatherman 10:26 AM EST on March 06, 2009


Interesting introductory statement on your blog page cchsweatherman

If that is still the way you feel, why are you here?
Quoting Ossqss:
1. cchsweatherman 10:26 AM EST on March 06, 2009


Interesting introductory statement on your blog page cchsweatherman

If that is still the way you feel, why are you here?


Keep in mind the date the blog was written. I no longer feel that way.
Our drought in FL is not uncommon. We seem to go through these on a regular basis. Unfortunately, we only had fast moving fronts again this year and little in the way of precip. No chaining rains again. The bad part is we are still months away from rainy season and the fire risk is about to skyrocket. The stage is set to mimic the terrible fires we had a few years back. Lets just hope the humidity stays up and we dont have any arson issues again.
Serious drought here in Texas as well, lost many cattle due to Ike. Pasture lands and stock ponds contaminated by saltwater and miles and miles of fencing lost as well. Volunteers are moving to help the ranchers as much as they can with labor and donations of hay , water and fencing. Drought only compounds the damage.
Quoting Ossqss:
Our drought in FL is not uncommon. We seem to go through these on a regular basis. Unfortunately, we only had fast moving fronts again this year and little in the way of precip. No chaining rains again. The bad part is we are still months away from rainy season and the fire risk is about to skyrocket. The stage is set to mimic the terrible fires we had a few years back. Lets just hope the humidity stays up and we dont have any arson issues again.


Couldn't agree with you more.
Well I know at my weather station I have only had 0.12 inches of rain the entire year.. So yeah it's shaping up to be a bad brush fire season.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED A 25 NM EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED EYE EVIDENT ON
THE CAIRNS RADAR IMAGERY. TC 18P PASSED ABOUT 10 NM EAST OF BOUGAIN-
VILLE REEF NEAR 05/12Z WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS REPORTED
AT 53 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP OF 979.0 MB. TC 18P HAS CONTINUED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A 50 KNOT INCREASE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND ABRF. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST > 28C AND DEEP MOISTURE. TC 18P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK.
TC 18P SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 BUT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AT TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:42am on Saturday the 7th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cooktown to Bowen. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island
communities from Bowen to Yeppoon.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a category 3 cyclone, is located in the
northwestern Coral Sea and at 1:00 am EST was estimated to be 245 kilometres
east of Cooktown and 215 kilometres east northeast of Cairns, moving south
southeast at 14 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue moving south southeast
parallel to the coast while deepening. Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal
and island communities between Cooktown and Bowen during the next 24 hours.

Damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island communities between
Bowen and Yeppoon within 24 to 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves southward and deepens, sea levels are expected to be
elevated above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large
waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall can be expected between Cooktown and Townsville, with a
Flood Warning current for coastal rivers and streams.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 1:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 147.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 19 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 968 hectoPascals

People between Cooktown and Bowen should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property.
Does -- 968 hectoPascals = 968 mb

never mind -- found it and yes DUH




Cairns RADAR Link

Aussie, will this storm aid in stopping the fires? I am not as familar with your country as I should be.
GBlet, on the contrary. Hamish will dump amounts of rain on Queensland that they can very well do without. This past summer has seen two cyclones and a monsoonal event passing over Queensland, which has left severe problems with flooding.

The drought that has spawned the lethal wildfires is affecting the southeast of Australia; Queensland is in the northeast.
At the 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) in St. Petersburg,


Conference Format
The conference will be held at the Hilton St. Petersburg Bayfront, St. Petersburg, Florida, from Monday, March 2, through Thursday, March 5, 2009. The theme for this years conference is Focusing Tropical Cyclone Research on Operations. The following provides an initial look at the planned activities for the week:

Monday morning, the Working Group for Hurricane and Winter Storm Operations will meet to work IHC action items and changes to the National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP).

The conference officially begins Monday afternoon. The afternoons agenda will include a keynote address; a panel discussion of senior leaders providing their perspective on tropical cyclone research priorities; the introduction of the federal agency lead representatives; and a review of the 2008 hurricane/typhoon season from both an operations and reconnaissance perspective.

From Tuesday through Thursday, sessions are being planned on the following topics:

Workshop: Identifying Tropical Cyclone Research Needs, Progress, and Gaps
Observations and Observing Strategies for Tropical Cyclones and its Environment
Tropical Cyclone Model Development (e.g., global/regional models, data assimilation, physical processes, verification and diagnostic techniques, probabilistic guidance)
Poster Previews/Session.
Research to Mitigate the Impacts of Tropical Cyclones (e.g., Intensity and Structure, Track, Precipitation, Coastal and Inland Inundation)
Products, Services, and Lessons Learned during the 2008 Tropical Cyclone Season
Joint Hurricane Testbed: Project Updates and Plans for the Future.
Plenary Session.

Before the Tuesday afternoon session concludes, the poster presenters will be given the opportunity to provide a 1-minute preview of their poster.

Then, in conjunction with the poster session to follow, we are planning to have a cash bar and snacks.


Man,..I bet the conversation was excellent Tuesday afternoon...!

NEW OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
Man,..I bet the conversation was excellent Tuesday afternoon...!

I went to this conference 2 years ago in NOLA. The informal discussions were at least as interesting as the formal talks. This holds true for most of the smaller met and storm surge conferences.

I probably learned more standing in front of posters and discussion them than in the conference room.
Decided to actually get going on my WU blog. Made my 2nd post today. Feel like I've accomplished something :P . Anyways just thought I'd let ya'll know in case anyone is interested in checking it out.
My Hamish looks scary
maybe I'll get to fly the Kermit combines frogs and hurricanes my two best interests
Wow, it was incredibly warm today. I went for a 25-minute bike ride in only a sweater, it was about 16C (61F), windy, and sunny, and I was more hot than cold, and to think that it felt below -20C (-2F) just three days before! I'm supposed to go skiing next week! A cold front passes, though, so it's going to cool down soon. Wow, Cyclone Hamish is expected to strengthen to major hurricane strength! It's expected to remain warm over the next few days here in S. Ontario.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number ELEVEN
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 3 (11U)
4:50 AM EST March 7 2009
==============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Three [966 hPa] located at 16.2S 147.7E or 220 kms east northeast of Cairns and 355 kms north northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 7 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue moving south southeast
parallel to the coast while deepening.

Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Cape
Tribulation and Mackay during the next 24 hours.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may affect coastal and island communities between Ayr and
Proserpine, including the Whitsunday islands, early on Sunday morning.

Damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Gladstone [including Heron Island] within 24 to 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves southward and deepens, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall can be expected about the Herbert and Burdekin, and northern parts of the Central Coast districts. A Flood Warning is current for coastal rivers and streams.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cape Tribulation to Mackay

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Mackay to Gladstone including Heron Island.

TC Technical Bulletin
=================

Storm Force Winds
------------------
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
--------------
110 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
------------------
12 HRS: 17.7S 148.5E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 19.1S 149.2E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 21.9S 150.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS: 23.7S 151.5E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Remarks
----
Eye pattern with LG surrounds and 0 eye adjustment. DT is 5.0. MET is 5.0. DT used as final T. SSE movement expected to continue with mid level ridge to E and trough over the Australian continent dominant steering mechanisms.
Thanks for the info Dr. Masters!
Needless to say~ I'm pretty excited about the upgrades..

Hamish spegetti


Link
Immediate Warning for SVR TC Hamish

At 7:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Three [960 hPa] located at 16.7S 147.9E or 230 kms east of Cairns and 310 kms north northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 9 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue moving south southeast parallel to the coast while deepening.

Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Innisfail and St Lawrence during the next 24 hours.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may develop about coastal and island communities between Ayr and Proserpine [including the Whitsunday islands] early on Sunday morning, and extend south to St Lawrence during the day.

Damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island communities between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay [including Heron Island and the Bunker Group] within 24 to 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves southward and deepens, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall may cause stream rises and possible flooding between Townsville and Mackay during the next 24 hours.


Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Innisfail to St Lawrence.

A Cyclone WATCH current for coastal and island communities from St Lawrence to Hervey Bay, including Heron Island and the Bunker Group.

The Cyclone warning has been CANCELLED between Cape Tribulation and Innisfail.
Thanks Dr.; nice to see the upgrades and follow-through on the airborne Doppler radar which has been billed for the past few years as having the potential to really help with rapid intensification and track issues...Let's see how this turns out over the next few years in terms of improving forecasting for Noaa/NHC.
Dedicated to the weather watchers who monitor and warn us of approaching storms. Filmed in Second Life at NOAA's site Meteora.

AF302 went out today to drop a sonde in the GOM.

Looks like they flew the noreaster last week 120+kt flight level with some strong TS force suface readings. They have been way more active on training & daily for the winter then I've seen in the last many years. Seems a pro recon admin for sure. I haven't been checking so much for winter storms since the last several years budget was too tight. Looks like they flew most the storms.
now this is funny

000
FXUS66 KLOX 062153
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST FRI MAR 6 2009

WILL BE CAUTIOUS OF
PUTTING LIPSTICK ON A PIG
AND CALLING THIS ADVANCING SYSTEM
SOMETHING TOO NEWSWORTHY AT THIS POINT.
NASA's Delta II rocket is about to head up at 10:46 PM EST, better head out to see it fellow floridians.
Live Feed at the Cape for tonights launch..Link
Cyclone Hamish to reach category four
Article from: AAP

March 07, 2009

CYCLONE Hamish, which is hovering off the north Queensland coast, will intensify into a category four storm by Sunday, the weather bureau has warned.
The tropical cyclone was about 230 kilometres off the Cairns coast this morning and was producing heavy rain in Innisfail and its surrounds in far north Queensland.

It was upgraded to a category three storm early this morning and was expected to be a category four by the time it hits land in the Mackay area on Sunday night or Monday morning.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has warned there could be damaging wind gusts in the popular tourist destination, as well as the Whitsunday Islands and between Innisfail and St Lawrence, on the central Queensland coast, on Sunday.

BOM forecaster David Grant said flash flooding for the flood-affected north was probable, with the Innisfail area expected to receive more than 200 millimetres of rain in 24 hours.

Premier Anna Bligh was due to be briefed on Emergency Management Queensland's preparations at the state's disaster co-ordination centre in Brisbane on Saturday.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13

Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:05am on Saturday the 7th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Lucinda to Saint Lawrence. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and
island communities from Saint Lawrence to Hervey Bay.

The Cyclone Warning has been cancelled between Innisfail and Lucinda.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a category 3 cyclone, is located in the
northwestern Coral Sea and at 10:00 am EST was estimated to be 250 kilometres
east of Cairns and 295 kilometres north northeast of Townsville, moving south
southeast at 16 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue moving south to southeast
parallel to the coast.

Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Lucinda
and St Lawrence during the next 24 hours.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may affect coastal and island communities between Ayr and St
Lawrence [including the Whitsunday islands] early on Sunday morning.

Damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island communities between St
Lawrence and Hervey Bay [including Heron and Lady Elliot Islands] within 24 to
48 hours.

As the cyclone moves southward and deepens overnight, sea levels are expected to
be elevated above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone.
Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in
areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect
their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall may cause flooding in some coastal streams and rivers
between Townsville and Mackay during the next 24 hours.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.9 degrees South 148.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 19 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals

People between Innisfail and St Lawrence should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the
actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm EST Saturday 07 March.


POSITION NEAR 17.5S 148.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS ORGANIZATION WITH BRIEF PERIODS HAVING
A CLOUD FILLED EYE. BASED ON RADAR, THE EYE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED IN
SIZE TO 15 NM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED EYE EVIDENT ON THE BOWEN RADAR Link
IMAGERY. TC 18P PASSED OVER HOLMES REEF NEAR 05/20Z WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS REPORTED AT 77 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP OF 960.9
MB. TC 18P HAS MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS REPORTED AT HOLMES REEF
AND FLINDERS REEF. DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM PGTW APPEAR TO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SST > 28C AND DEEP MOISTURE. TC 18P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TRACK. TC 18P SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AT TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 17 FEET.





Quoting CybrTeddy:
NASA's Delta II rocket is about to head up at 10:46 PM EST, better head out to see it fellow floridians.



good looking out teddy,I'm all over it down here in sarasota,fl....I'll try and take a few picks and post them in a few days as soon as I get my new laptop!!!

Overview of the Kepler Mission



Kepler
... NASA's first mission capable of finding Earth-size and smaller planets around other stars.

Importance of Planet Detection Link

The centuries-old quest for other worlds like our Earth has been rejuvenated by the intense excitement and popular interest surrounding the discovery of hundreds of planets orbiting other stars.

There is now clear evidence for substantial numbers of three types of exoplanets; gas giants, hot-super-Earths in short period orbits, and ice giants. The following websites are tracking the day-by-day increase in new discoveries and are providing information on the characteristics of the planets as well as those of the stars they orbit: Extrasolar Planets Encyclopedia, New Worlds Atlas, and Current Planet Count Widget.

The challenge now is to find terrestrial planets (i.e., those one half to twice the size of the Earth), especially those in the habitable zone of their stars where liquid water and possibly life might exist.






Keppler launch in 12 minutes.......... maybe! LOL

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html
Planned 10 minute hold, then resume count at T-minus 4 minutes.....
Is the rocket blasting from the CApe
Quoting TampaSpin:
Is the rocket blasting from the CApe


That was awesome. Clear and binoc's are a must.
Typical beautiful Cape Kennedy Rocket launch provided by NASA. Great view!
Good luck Kepler - find us some friends.
Outstanding ride to Orbit..

Good Luck on the re-start...!

awsome double view,one on the laptop and one live from my top floor balacony 25 feet up(I wish I would have known there was a 20 second delay)..with perfect viewing conditions!!!!,I hope surfmom knew??
I could see it for about 3 minutes!!!,wow!!!,pretty cool changing colors as well!!
Quoting Tazmanian:
now this is funny

000
FXUS66 KLOX 062153
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST FRI MAR 6 2009

WILL BE CAUTIOUS OF
PUTTING LIPSTICK ON A PIG
AND CALLING THIS ADVANCING SYSTEM
SOMETHING TOO NEWSWORTHY AT THIS POINT.
i like that taz haha
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FOURTEEN
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 4 (11U)
1:50 PM EST March 7 2009
==============================

At 1:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Four [955 hPa] located at 17.5S 148.5E or 295 kms east southeast of Cairns and 265 kms northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southeast at 9 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue moving south to southeast parallel to the coast.

Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Townsville and St Lawrence during the next 24 hours.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may affect coastal and island communities between Ayr and St Lawrence [including the Whitsunday islands] early on Sunday morning.

Damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island communities between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay [including Heron and Lady Elliot Islands] within 24 to 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves southward overnight, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall may cause flooding in some coastal streams and rivers between Townsville and Rockhampton during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Townsville to Saint Lawrence

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Saint Lawrence to Hervey Bay.

The Cyclone warning has been cancelled between Lucinda and Townsville.
Hi all....
Just had to pop in and say I love the Muppet HH logos!
Night!
07/0130 UTC 17.4S 148.4E T6.5/6.5
Melbourne tremor one of three to hit Australia in one day
Article from: AAP

March 07, 2009

THE earth tremor that rocked the centre of Melbourne was one of three quakes that hit Australia in the one day, a seismologist says.
Melbourne residents reported buildings shaking across the metropolitan area when a tremor struck at 8.55pm (AEDT) last night.

Geoscience Australia, which monitors earthquake activity, said the tremor measured magnitude 4.6 on the Richter scale, with the epicentre at Korumburra, about 90km southeast of Melbourne.

The US Geological Survey reported on its website the tremor measured 4.7.

Geoscience Australia's duty seismologist Phil Cummins said residents across a wide area felt the Melbourne tremor - one of three quakes to hit Australian that day.

"There were many reports from across a wide area - this was felt across a 100km radius," he told AAP yesterday.

"It was certainly a moderate earthquake that was likely to be felt across a wide area but is unlikely to have caused any damage, except possibly some minor damage near the epicentre."

He said tremors were also felt near Broome in WA and near Beacon in WA's wheatbelt.

"Those were both close to magnitude five," he told ABC radio today.

"They occurred in remote areas so they were felt by far fewer people than this (the Melbourne) one.

"But it is quite remarkable that we get three of roughly the same size in the one day."

Victorian State Emergency Service (SES) spokesman Allen Briggs said the service was inundated with phone calls from the public after the Melbourne tremor but there had been no reports of any damage.

"It was certainly enough to rattle windows and we've had reports it was felt in metropolitan Melbourne and as far down as Warragul and Leongatha in Gippsland," Mr Briggs said yesterday.

Ron Smith, who lives in Kew, in Melbourne's inner northeast, said he was relaxing at home when he felt the building shake.

"Jeez, it came as a bit of a surprise. We were just sitting around when all of a sudden the place starts vibrating," he said.

Residents in Reservoir, in Melbourne's north, and householders in the Dandenong Ranges east of the city, reported feeling the tremor shortly before 9pm.

"It felt like a large truck driving past the house," Charisse Ede, of Monbulk, said, adding she felt a second, smaller tremor a few minutes later.

A spokeswoman for Victoria Police said the incident had also been reported to the police but she advised members of the public to only dial triple-0 in an emergency situation.

TOP PRIORITY FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14

Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:08pm on Saturday the 7th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Townsville to Saint Lawrence. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and
island communities from Saint Lawrence to Hervey Bay.

The cyclone warning has been cancelled between Lucinda and Townsville.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, has intensified to a category 4 cyclone. It is
located in the northwestern Coral Sea and at 1:00 pm EST was estimated to be 295
kilometres east southeast of Cairns and 265 kilometres northeast of Townsville,
moving south southeast at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue moving south to southeast
parallel to the coast.

Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Townsville
and St Lawrence during the next 24 hours.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may affect coastal and island communities between Ayr and St
Lawrence [including the Whitsunday islands] early on Sunday morning.

Damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island communities between St
Lawrence and Hervey Bay [including Heron and Lady Elliot Islands] within 24 to
48 hours.

As the cyclone moves southward overnight, sea levels are expected to be elevated
above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may
produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall may cause flooding in some coastal streams and rivers
between Townsville and Rockhampton during the next 24 hours.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 148.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 19 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 955 hectoPascals

People between Townsville and St Lawrence should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the
actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Saturday 07 March.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish

Tropical Cyclone Hamish has reached category 4 status and is currently situated 265km northeast of Townsville and 395km east-southeast of Cairns. At this stage, Hamish is expected to weaken into a category 3 tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.

The Cyclone has moved slightly closer to land than previously forecast and is tracking parallel to it. Hamish's current movement is 17 km/h south-southeasterly. At the moment it is not forecast to make landfall within the next 24 hours.

A watch is current between Saint Lawrence and Hervey Bay.

A warning is current for areas between Townsville and Saint Lawrence.
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0122 UTC 7 March 2009

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish was centred within 10 nautical miles
of latitude sixteen decimal nine south [16.9S] longitude one hundred and forty
eight decimal one east [148.1E]
Recent movement : south southeast at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 85 knots
Central pressure: 960 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 110 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds to 85 knots within 25 nautical miles of the centre, increasing
to 100 knots within 35nm by 080000UTC. Very high to phenomenal seas.

Clockwise winds 48/63 knots elsewhere within 55 nautical miles of the centre.
High to very high seas.

Clockwise winds 34/47 knots elsewhere within 110 nautical miles of the centre.
Very rough to high seas.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 07 March: Within 40 nautical miles of 18.3 south 149.0 east
Central pressure 952 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots.
At 0000 UTC 08 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 19.6 south 149.9 east
Central pressure 942 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to
+61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 212.
Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 07 March 2009.

WEATHER BRISBANE


I just updated my Blog and Web site Mirror if anyone would like to view......

TampaSpins Web Blog Link

and

TampaSpins WU Blog Link
I think I found the perfect outdoor wireless weather cam :)

This is the camera systems I am probably going to buy tomorrow.. SWMBO'ed seems to like it also.

If anyone knows anything about it that is bad..please WUmail it to me.
I have a friend around Mackay, who is going to ride out the storm. Hamish looks more bullish now than ever, and I can only hope everyone in its path are fully prepared.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Four [950 hPa] located at 17.9S 148.8E or 240 kms north of Hayman Is and 235 kms northeast of Ayr has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southeast at 10 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue moving south to southeast parallel to the coast.

Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Townsville and Yeppoon during the next 24 hours.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may affect coastal and island communities between Ayr and St Lawrence.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may affect the Whitsunday Islands early Sunday morning as the Cyclone passes to the east.

Damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay [including Heron and Lady Elliot Islands] within 24 to 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves southward overnight, sea levels are expected to be elevatedabove the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves mayproduce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall may cause flooding in some coastal streams and rivers between Townsville and Rockhampton during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Townsville to Yeppoon.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Yeppoon to Hervey Bay.

TC Technical Bulletin
=================

Hurricane Force Winds
---------------------
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
------------------
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
--------------
110 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
------------------
12 HRS: 19.3S 149.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 20.7S 150.1E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 22.6S 151.5E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 24.2S 152.2E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Remarks
----
Eye pattern with VIS and also observations from Flinders Reef at 02 and 05 UTC.

DT is 6.0.
cool... TCWC Brisbane and JTWC pretty much agree on the intensity

BOM 100 knots
JTWC 115 knots

To calculate 10 min sustained winds average to 1 minute sustained winds..

100 (10 min) x 1.15 = 115 knots


55 degrees SWFL - 1 degree warmer then yesterday -- good in my book -- still searching for rain. several small fires this week. Luckily nothing major, hope it's not an indication of things to come this spring/summer

Flat this morning on the Gulf. EC looks fun this morning. Gulf stays flat this weekend though the 1ft southy should be around at some point. Next chance for surf maybe Sunday 3/15. Have a good Saturday -- getting ready for work at the Polo barn
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
============================

At 7:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Four [940 hPa] located at 18.2S 149.0E or 205 kms north of Hayman Is and 225 kms northeast of Ayr has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southeast at 9 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish has continued to intensify and is expected to maintain a southeast track parallel to the coast.

Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Townsville and Yeppoon during the next 24 hours.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may affect coastal and island communities between Ayr and St Lawrence. VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may affect the Whitsunday Islands early Sunday morning as the Cyclone passes to the east.

Damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay [including Heron Island] within 24 to 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the south-east, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall may cause flooding in some coastal streams and rivers between Bowen and Rockhampton during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Townsville to Yeppoon.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Yeppoon to Hervey Bay



Category 5 cyclone now forecasted in the outlook.
any folks from Houston on the blog today--check out SMMCDAVID's blog for information regarding the Portlight.org walk there. Hurricane season approaches -- part of being prepared is supporting this WU grassroots organization that may be offering YOU hurricane aid this season.
Good Morning Hades -- we are the two early birds today!! Hamish a cat4 Holy Moley -- those poor Aussies -- from hell fires to tropical cyclone-cat 4 ??!!

Geeze I hope we don't "mirror" that over here in SWFL
Guys! The next time anyone tries to blame our economic problems on Obama, show them this website, the graph of the Dow Jones for the last year:

http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/snapshot.asp?symbol=US%26DJI

When did the markets start falling - that's right - they fell from a height of over 13,000 beginning in around June of 2008 - five months before the election! Thanks Bush!

So I wish people would stop blaming Obama. The market was freefalling. That's why America elected him. He's trying to put a bandaid in place. People who enjoy Weather Underground should SUPPORT Obama because of the money he is trying to put into science and especially weather and hurricane science. If we had gotten McCain, do you think 'Gonzo' would have gotten any cash?
morning surfmom

no kidding from one disaster to another.

Hayman Is (west) of the center of the projected CAT 5 path on that map below.

Cyclone George was the last Category Five (Australian Scale) in the Australia region

George: 110 knots (10 min) 902 hPa
Hades -- so they're really going to get clobbered! Yikes --- gosh I hope this isn't a warm-up for us this season.... economically people can't bounce back -- no reserves
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.4 6.5 7.6

---
7.6 (155 knots) for the raw t number

must be cause the eye may be shrinking..
Resort islands batten down for cyclone
Article from: AAP

March 07, 2009 10:09pm

TOURISTS on Queensland's popular Whitsunday islands on the Great Barrier Reef were preparing for the worst tonight as tropical cyclone Hamish crept south.

Two of the north Queensland islands, South Molle and Long, were evacuated today, but most visitors were choosing to stay on other islands with cyclone-proof resorts, such as Hamilton.

At 8pm (AEST) cyclone Hamish - which at category four is the same intensity as Larry which devastated the region in March 2006 - was 205km north of Hayman Island and 225km northeast of Ayr, moving southeast at 17km/h.

The weather bureau said the Whitsundays were expected to be hit with "very destructive'' winds of around 160km/h early on Sunday morning, with the coastal communities of Ayr and St Lawrence due to face slightly lesser but still destructive winds.

Whitsundays Disaster Management Group coordinator Senior Sergeant Steve O'Connell said preparations were well under way on the coast.

"We've done as much preparation as we can in the event the cyclone does come towards us,'' he said.

"The critical part will be the next 12 to 15 hours.''

Damaging wind gusts are expected to affect communities between Townsville and Yeppoon on Sunday.

Areas around Mackay have been deluged with 180mm of rain since 9am on Saturday, with some suburbs evacuated due to flooding and authorities warning of road closures.

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh said Hamish could bring devastation similar to that of Cyclone Larry, a category five cyclone which wreaked havoc on Innisfail in 2006, if it crossed the coast.

"On current predictions it does appear that if this crosses the coast, it could be the worst that we have seen since Cyclone Larry,'' she told reporters at an emergency briefing in Brisbane today.


''... It is already clear that if it does cross the coast at any point, it is a serious cyclone that will cause extensive damage.''

She said she had declared a disaster situation in the area to allow authorities to enforce evacuations in towns from Townsville to Maryborough, should that be necessary.

Emergency Management Queensland deputy director Bruce Grady said the cyclone was being tracked to Hervey Bay but could break up or turn into the coast before it reached that far south.

Weather bureau spokesman Bruce Gunn said it could cause significant flooding if the cyclone hit at high tide.

"A severe tropical cyclone is almost as bad as it gets,'' he said.

Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts said authorities were preparing for whatever was to come.

"We want to ensure all people in the region are as safe as possible,'' he said.

Residents have been asked to prepare emergency kits and stay tuned to radio bulletins in case evacuations are ordered.



An Impressive Category 4 (US Scale) Hurricane.


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:48pm on Saturday the 7th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Ayr to
Gladstone. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities
from Gladstone to Hervey Bay.

The Cyclone WATCH between Townsville and Ayr has been CANCELLED.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, ELEVATED SEA LEVELS and LARGE WAVES are likely to impact
on the Whitsunday Islands during Sunday morning.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 5 CYCLONE, is located off the north
Queensland coast and at 10:00 pm EST was estimated to be 180 kilometres north
northeast of Hayman Is and 275 kilometres east northeast of Townsville, moving
southeast at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a very significant threat to coastal and
island communities about the central Queensland coast. The cyclone is expected
to maintain a southeast track parallel to the coast during the next 24 to 48
hours.

Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Ayr and
Gladstone during the next 24 hours.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to affect exposed coastal and island communities
between Bowen and Shoalwater Bay during the next 24 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated
above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may
produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall may cause flooding in some coastal streams and rivers
between Bowen and Rockhampton during the next 24 hours.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 18.5 degrees South 149.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 19 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 930 hectoPascals

People between Ayr and Gladstone should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People between Gladstone and Hervey Bay should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the
actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.


The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Sunday 08 March.
Wow Hamish is a cat 5 now
Quoting rainmound:
Guys! The next time anyone tries to blame our economic problems on Obama, show them this website, the graph of the Dow Jones for the last year:

http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/usmarkets/snapshot.asp?symbol=US%26DJI

When did the markets start falling - that's right - they fell from a height of over 13,000 beginning in around June of 2008 - five months before the election! Thanks Bush!

So I wish people would stop blaming Obama. The market was freefalling. That's why America elected him. He's trying to put a bandaid in place. People who enjoy Weather Underground should SUPPORT Obama because of the money he is trying to put into science and especially weather and hurricane science. If we had gotten McCain, do you think 'Gonzo' would have gotten any cash?



the recession in the U.S. started in december 2007,and GLOBALLY just a short time later(this is a global economic crisis,not just american(blame that on obama)(not))
You missed quite the launch last nigth,perfect viewing conditions in our area,ossgs saw it too!!!!
Quoting Orcasystems:
I think I found the perfect outdoor wireless weather cam :)

This is the camera systems I am probably going to buy tomorrow.. SWMBO'ed seems to like it also.

If anyone knows anything about it that is bad..please WUmail it to me.


MR. Orca, this appears to use x10 technology. It may need to be on the same leg in your power panel as the PC, unless you have bridged the panel. I have not used much x10 stuff but others have with success ( not camreas however) . It may be subject to noise by other equipment if it is on the same circuit. I would be interested in how it performs for you. Good luck.
Quoting Ossqss:


MR. Orca, this appears to use x10 technology. It may need to be on the same leg in your power panel as the PC, unless you have bridged the panel. I have not used much x10 stuff but others have with success ( not camreas however) . It may be subject to noise by other equipment if it is on the same circuit. I would be interested in how it performs for you. Good luck.


I thought about that.. next door nieighbor is an electrician, giving serious thought to having him run a dedicated electrical circuit, just for the camera and the PC.
Wait i dont get it. Cat 5? O.O WU says its a cat
2, and even if the scales are different, then
wouldnt WU say CAT2, 160 mph winds or something?

Could someone please lead me to a site where
correct-scale advisories are posted on hamish?
Thanks.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Wait i dont get it. Cat 5? O.O WU says its a cat
2, and even if the scales are different, then
wouldnt WU say CAT2, 160 mph winds or something?

Could someone please lead me to a site where
correct-scale advisories are posted on hamish?
Thanks.


Link


TC Hamish has Wind gusts near centre 295 kilometres per hour which is 183 miles per hour
Quoting Orcasystems:
I think I found the perfect outdoor wireless weather cam :)

This is the camera systems I am probably going to buy tomorrow.. SWMBO'ed seems to like it also.

If anyone knows anything about it that is bad..please WUmail it to me.


Orca, check some of these reviews out before you buy this.

Link


Link
79 WU only update storms on the other side of the world about once or twice a day so there should be a new update soon
I just updated my Blog and Web site Mirror if anyone would like to view......

TampaSpins Web Blog Link

and

TampaSpins WU Blog Link
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just updated my Blog and Web site Mirror if anyone would like to view......

TampaSpins Web Blog Link

and

TampaSpins WU Blog Link


No go bro, its toast -- error -- too many tracking cookies ª¿ª :)
Since the accident of the 3 young men in the GOM i have decided to add a Beach and Boating Report on my blog. Hopefully it might make a difference to someone. I will add the addition next week.
Quoting stillwaiting:
You missed quite the launch last nigth,perfect viewing conditions in our area,ossgs saw it too!!!!


It was indeed awesome and long lasting. Binoc's are the best way to check it out.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Since the accident of the 3 young men in the GOM i have decided to add a Beach and Boating Report on my blog. Hopefully it might make a difference to someone. I will add the addition next week.


Thanks Tampa! That will make a huge difference!
Quoting Ossqss:


No go bro, its toast -- error -- too many tracking cookies ª¿ª :)


Try the web site it loads easier...i think your the 2nd person that has said something about it loading over the past several months...i will look at ways for easier loading.
Quoting Ossqss:


Orca, check some of these reviews out before you buy this.

Link


Link


Definitely mixed reviews. I am trying to find a decent priced outdoor/indoor wireless IP camera.. to use as a weather/critter cam.. suggestions?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Definitely mixed reviews. I am trying to find a decent priced outdoor/indoor wireless IP camera.. to use as a weather/critter cam.. suggestions?

Albeit, this seems to be wireless, it really is not. These type of x10 items can be very sensitive to power fluxuations. Hence why the one review referenced a toasted USB connection. Low or high voltage can be a big problem and you cannot protect them for it filters out the transmission. There are many 2.4 ghz cameras out there if you have an existing wireless router, that would be easy. You still need power to them however. I have some folks who use a solar charged battery and inverter to power remote cameras. There is still some caution there also if the camera has issues with square wave power from the inverter, unless you get a 12v DC camera. I will poll some technocrats and see if I can help. e
Quoting Ossqss:

Albeit, this seems to be wireless, it really is not. These type of x10 items can be very sensitive to power fluxuations. Hence why the one review referenced a toasted USB connection. Low or high voltage can be a big problem and you cannot protect them for it filters out the transmission. There are many 2.4 ghz cameras out there if you have an existing wireless router, that would be easy. You still need power to them however. I have some folks who use a solar charged battery and inverter to power remote cameras. There is still some caution there also if the camera has issues with square wave power from the inverter, unless you get a 12v DC camera. I will poll some technocrats and see if I can help. e


Looking fro ideas, and trying to stay under 500. I do have a spot where I could mount it indoors.. but not a lot of options their either.. I did find a logitech one that would work, but no one carries it locally.
If you use Brighthouse, you are population sensitive with respect to you connection speed. In particular the upload side on weekends or high usage times. You need a big tunnel if you have any kind of volume on a site. If you use verizon, you have a fixed tunnel and could still have the same crowded tunnel senario, in particular if you have other PC's operating over the same connection. Check your stats and validate that you are actually getting the connection you paid for.

Use this link and do a tweektest and find out.
Speed test and Tweek test links below.

The tweek test will let you know if you have room for improvement. Your RWIN and MTU settings are the only ones you should mess with to be safe. THis would be a good thing for everyone to do to get the most out of their connections. Note: your connection type impacts the settings so ensure you have a grasp of that part.

LinkLink
Quoting Orcasystems:


Looking fro ideas, and trying to stay under 500. I do have a spot where I could mount it indoors.. but not a lot of options their either.. I did find a logitech one that would work, but no one carries it locally.


If you get something with an optical zoom, you have many more options available. A simple under soffit placement can provide ease of installation and eliminate the need for the wireless part if you can get from point a to point b. Part of what I do is high end integrated security and I have always preferred wired (IP inparticular ) cameras vs wireless. It is just more reliable over the long run. You should take alook at the camera/DVR kits. You can always connect to the DVR for what you wish to display and it will double as a security system for you home.,Good luck.
Quoting Ossqss:
If you use Brighthouse, you are population sensitive with respect to you connection speed. In particular the upload side on weekends or high usage times. You need a big tunnel if you have any kind of volume on a site. If you use verizon, you have a fixed tunnel and could still have the same crowded tunnel senario, in particular if you have other PC's operating over the same connection. Check your stats and validate that you are actually getting the connection you paid for.

Use this link and do a tweektest and find out.
Speed test and Tweek test links below.

The tweek test will let you know if you have room for improvement. Your RWIN and MTU settings are the only ones you should mess with to be safe. THis would be a good thing for everyone to do to get the most out of their connections. Note: your connection type impacts the settings so ensure you have a grasp of that part.

LinkLink


I have a Business Cable modem.. both here at at the office.. bandwidth and speed I have lots of :)
Quoting Ossqss:


If you get something with an optical zoom, you have many more options available. A simple under soffit placement can provide ease of installation and eliminate the need for the wireless part if you can get from point a to point b. Part of what I do is high end integrated security and I have always preferred wired (IP inparticular ) cameras vs wireless. It is just more reliable over the long run. You should take alook at the camera/DVR kits. You can always connect to the DVR for what you wish to display and it will double as a security system for you home.,Good luck.


OK, here is a question for you.
If I purchase one of the many 2.4G security systems.. and a DVR.. can I use the DVR to feed a digital input to my computer? That option is almost cheaper believe it or not.
Quoting Orcasystems:


OK, here is a question for you.
If I purchase one of the many 2.4G security systems.. and a DVR.. can I use the DVR to feed a digital input to my computer? That option is almost cheaper believe it or not.
You will need to check the ouput specs or connectivity of the DVR. They will all have analog outputs minimum for a monitor. You also can get a frame grabber card for your PC and make it part DVR if you will. I have one in my PC to allow me to convert analog TV, VCR tape etc to Mpeg format for DVD creationn. There are a bunch of cheap cards out there and the software to allow you to build your own. I would suggest using a secondary hard drive to support the video recording if you indeed go that route. There are many options available, just ensure you start with a decent camera and have the horsepower in your PC to suppor the effort. You dont want that to be your weakest link in the system.
Quoting Ossqss:
You will need to check the ouput specs or connectivity of the DVR. They will all have analog outputs minimum for a monitor. You also can get a frame grabber card for your PC and make it part DVR if you will. I have one in my PC to allow me to convert analog TV, VCR tape etc to Mpeg format for DVD creationn. There are a bunch of cheap cards out there and the software to allow you to build your own. I would suggest using a secondary hard drive to support the video recording if you indeed go that route. There are many options available, just ensure you start with a decent camera and have the horsepower in your PC to suppor the effort. You dont want that to be your weakest link in the system.


Dam Ossgss you know your stuff....I think you just as well go set his up and mine also...of course double bill Oraca to pay for mine tho....LOL
Gotta go, Large Mouth bass await me and the kids. 80 degrees and a slight breese make for a great day of fishing. Wind chill of 76.5. Take a kid fishing for some day they will be taking you. Be well.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Dam Ossgss you know your stuff....I think you just as well go set his up and mine also...of course double bill Oraca to pay for mine tho....LOL


I would be happy to help if you need it. I have an office in Tampa that I rarley get to. Just let me know and I will make it so.
wow 150 mph think it'll become a cat 5 (our standards) also is Hamish annular?
07/0830 UTC 18.3S 149.1E T7.0/7.0 HAMISH -- Southwest Pacific
Describes how and where hurricanes are formed, their structure, and how they cause damage.


Quoting all4hurricanes:
wow 150 mph think it'll become a cat 5 (our standards) also is Hamish annular?

TC Hamish has Wind gusts near centre 295 kilometres per hour which is 183 miles per hour
Quoting Ossqss:


I would be happy to help if you need it. I have an office in Tampa that I rarley get to. Just let me know and I will make it so.


Mine is a little further away :)


TC Hamish Wind Field Link
Hamish,Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1 km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR) Latest Image
Link
Good morning all! Just stopping in for a pre-June 1 visit. Awesome video that you posted Patrap. This would be a great learning tool for my 8 year old.
Glad you found it interesting Hanna,G'morning.
SH182009 - Tropical Cyclone HAMISH Link
Would someone please explain to me (in simple language, please!) why there are no hurricanes/cyclones near the equator? My daughter is on the island of New Guinea (Irian Jaya/West Papua) and says they cannot have hurricanes/cyclones.

Thanks.
Quoting Patrap:
SH182009 - Tropical Cyclone HAMISH Link


130kts up on NRL....Really nice symmetrical look to it with great outflow.
Storms like Typhoon Varmei arent supposed to happen. So when U.S. Navy ships were hit by this tropical cyclone in the South China Sea in December 2001, researchers at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, Calif., decided to take a closer look.

For centuries, sailors havent worried about tropical storms near the equator, says Dr. C. -P. Chang, a meteorology professor at the school, as a rule that cyclones are not supposed to develop there.

The textbooks say that cyclones such as hurricanes (or typhoons as they are called in the western Pacific) dont form within 300 kilometers (about 186 miles) of the equator. Typhoon Varmei proved to be an exception to the rule. It spun up just 150 kilometers (about 93 miles) north of the equator much closer to Earths midriff than any other recorded storm.

NASA researchers found that a combination of topography and meteorology, rather than Earths rotation helped jump start the cyclone. A strong blast of air from Asia, called a monsoon surge, funneled rapidly down the South China Sea, reaching the equator in a narrow stretch of ocean between Malay Peninsula and Borneo.

To figure out just what happened and how likely it was to happen again, Chang and two visiting professors from Taiwan analyzed data from several weather models and detailed measurements of wind speed and direction provided by NASA's QuikSCAT satellite. They discovered that not only did Typhoon Varmei develop in a very unlikely spot, it also got its start in an unusual way.

Link
TC Hamish is very impressive for sure 23.
Quoting Patrap:
TC Hamish is very impressive for sure 23.


Should see an eyewall replacement cycle in the near future if the land does not weaken it to much.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:45am on Sunday the 8th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Ayr to
Gladstone. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities
from Gladstone to Hervey Bay.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, ELEVATED SEA LEVELS and LARGE WAVES are likely to impact
on the Whitsunday Islands during Sunday morning.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 5 CYCLONE, is located off the north
Queensland coast and at 1:00 am EST was estimated to be 155 kilometres northeast
of Hayman Is and 305 kilometres east of Townsville, moving southeast at 18
kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a very significant threat to coastal and
island communities about the central Queensland coast. The cyclone is expected
to maintain a southeast track parallel to the coast during the next 24 to 48
hours.

Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Ayr and
Gladstone during the next 24 hours.

Destructive winds are expected to affect exposed coastal and island communities
between Bowen and Shoalwater Bay during the next 24 hours.

Damaging winds are not expected about coastal and island communities between
Gladstone and Hervey Bay within 24 hours, however they may develop within 48
hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated
above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may
produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall may cause flooding in some coastal streams and rivers
between Bowen and Rockhampton during the next 24 hours.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 1:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 18.9 degrees South 149.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 18 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 927 hectoPascals

People between Ayr and Gladstone should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People between Gladstone and Hervey Bay should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the
actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.


The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Sunday 08 March.
Quoting lhwhelk:
Would someone please explain to me (in simple language, please!) why there are no hurricanes/cyclones near the equator? My daughter is on the island of New Guinea (Irian Jaya/West Papua) and says they cannot have hurricanes/cyclones.

Thanks.


Related question ---- Which way does the water spin in a toilet directly centered on the equator? Clockwise or counter clockwise ? Seriously ???
927 is very low,very organised Cyclone.

Take ALL Preps to Protect Life and Property.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (HAMISH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF, INDICATING AT THE WEAKEST
A 130 KNOT SYSTEM. THE TC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF AUSTRALIA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER
RIDGING TO THE EAST WHILE WEAKENING. INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LAND INTERACTION WILL INITIATE THIS WEAKENING. GREATER WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED NEARER TO TAU 24, AND THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EVEN CLOSER TO LAND AND A
BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 19 FEET
Broken Levees, Broken Lives: A Focus on Post-Katrina Healthcare

Link

Synopsis: La Niña is expected to gradually weaken with increasing chances (greater than 50%) for ENSO-neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere Spring.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions during February 2009 continued to reflect La Niña. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean remained below-average (Fig. 1), but weakened throughout the month. The Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 SST indices also gradually increased, but remained -0.5oC or cooler (Fig. 2). Negative subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) and temperature anomalies at thermocline depth also weakened across the eastern half of the Pacific (Fig. 4). However, convection remained suppressed near the Date Line, and enhanced across Indonesia. Also, low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds continued across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with a weakening La Niña.

While nearly all the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region show that La Niña will have dissipated by May – July 2009, the exact timing of the transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is uncertain (Fig. 5). The timing of the expected transition will depend on the strength of the low-level easterly wind anomalies and on how quickly the reservoir of below-average subsurface temperatures dwindles. Therefore, based on current observations, recent trends, and model forecasts, La Niña is expected to gradually weaken with increasing chances (greater than 50%) for ENSO-neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere Spring.
Expected La Niña impacts during March-May 2009 include above-average precipitation over Indonesia, and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific. Compared to the Northern Hemisphere winter, La Niña impacts over the United States are typically less pronounced. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include below-average precipitation across the southern states. Other potential impacts include below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and above-average temperatures across much of the southwestern and south-central United States.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 April 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.


I'm off to bed. Going to be a big day tomorrow with TC Hamish possible land impact. Will try to bring everyone as much info i can as the day progresses.
Cheers AussieStorm

P.S the Victorian bushfires are still burning
Getting close to the bottom of the graph...that's Hamish, not the markets..
safari 4 beta is so cool


.Link
a deepening low pressue north of the lesser antilles is gerating hugh swells and battering waves of the n ne and east coast of the island chain. wind at times gusting to 25-30 knots
HUD approves $1.3 billion post-hurricanerecovery plan


Standing alongside the mayors of Galveston and Houston on Friday, the nation’s top housing official authorized local leaders to begin the laborious process of using federal money to rebuild what two hurricanes destroyed.

Shaun Donovan, the secretary of Housing and Urban Development, approved Texas’ plan for spending $1.3 billion in Community Development Block Grant funds for housing and infrastructure repairs and public services related to Hurricanes Ike and Dolly.

At a news conference in Houston, Donovan pledged to redouble HUD’s efforts to speed the Gulf Coast’s recovery from Ike, which came ashore on Galveston Island Sept. 13, and Dolly, which struck South Texas last July.

“We can now begin a process of change, of a new partnership between the federal government and state and local governments,” he said.

HUD approval of the state’s plan for use of the federal funds clears the way for local officials to begin the procedures required to spend the federal funds, a process that could take months.








Quoting Ossqss:
Gotta go, Large Mouth bass await me and the kids. 80 degrees and a slight breese make for a great day of fishing. Wind chill of 76.5. Take a kid fishing for some day they will be taking you. Be well.


fished for 2hrs on big pass,caught 2 sheepshead about 10-12",no keepers,but perfect late morning fishing and alot of people out here on the island!!!!
did you all no that STL got ban from the site



if any one no why and how he got ban drop me a note on my blog
Quoting Tazmanian:
did you all no that STL got ban from the site



if any one no why and how he got ban drop me a note on my blog


Likely because of the arguments by Global Warming.
Going for Category 5 (US Scale), first one of the year.
150 MPH
now this is funny


000
FXUS66 KLOX 062153
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST FRI MAR 6 2009

WILL BE CAUTIOUS OF
PUTTING LIPSTICK ON A PIG
AND CALLING THIS ADVANCING SYSTEM
SOMETHING TOO NEWSWORTHY AT THIS POINT.
how can you put LIPSTICK on a pig when the color is pink
135. BtnTx
Quoting Tazmanian:
how can you put LIPSTICK on a pig when the color is pink


There are darker colors?? IT IS a very funny comment for a Weather Forecast
Unlimited VFR for those Pigs Flying today in the Deep South..dawling


Hamish looks deadly!
Quoting Patrap:
Unlimited VFR for those Pigs Flying today in the Deep South..dawling




Oh good lord pat! I thought for a second that was my mother and law back to visit.


Larry image 2006.. Hamish looks stronger definitely than Larry

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh said Hamish could bring devastation similar to that from cyclone Larry, a category-five cyclone which devastated Innisfail in 2006.
"On current predictions it does appear that if this crosses the coast, it could be the worst that we have seen since cyclone Larry," she said.
"It is already clear that if it does cross the coast at any point, it is a serious cyclone that will cause extensive damage."
Quoting Tazmanian:
now this is funny
FXUS66 KLOX 062153
AFDLOX
WILL BE CAUTIOUS OF
PUTTING LIPSTICK ON A PIG
AND CALLING THIS ADVANCING SYSTEM
SOMETHING TOO NEWSWORTHY AT THIS POINT.
Quoting Tazmanian:
how can you put LIPSTICK on a pig when the color is pink

When Miss Piggy is needed to determine if an advancing system is newsworthy
Quoting Patrap:


TC Hamish Wind Field Link


Those look like Hot Towers in the southern half of the eye...no?


George 2007 (Category 5, just before landfall near Port Hedland)
March cyclone in Australia are brutal.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
============================

At 4:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Five [925 hPa] located at 19.2S 149.9E or 145 kms northeast of Hayman Is and 230 kms north northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 9 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a very significant threat to coastal and island communities between Bowen and Bundaberg. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track parallel to the coast during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Damaging wind gusts are expected to affect coastal and island communities between Bowen and Bundaberg during the next 24 hours.

Destructive winds are expected to affect exposed coastal and island communities between the Whitsunday Islands and Yeppoon during the next 24 hours. However, the very destructive core of Cyclone Hamish is no longer expected to impact on the Whitsunday Islands.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Bundaberg and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall may cause flooding in some coastal streams and rivers between the Whitsunday Islands and Yeppoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Bowen to Bundaberg.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Bundaberg to Tewantin.

Hurricane Force Winds
---------------------
45 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
------------------
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
--------------
120 NM from the center

--
pressure still falling..
Hamish forecasted to stay at Category 5 for the next 48 hours according to the cyclone threat map.
First Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year people.
2008 only had 1.
2007 had loads (including 2 in the Atlantic)
Wonder what 2009 brings in terms of number of category 5s.
I guess no technical bulletin from Brisbane for the new advisory.
Ah here it is.

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
12 HRS: 20.7S 150.7E - 115 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS: 21.9S 151.3E - 115 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS: 23.7S 152.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS: 25.2S 152.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Remarks:
Final T based on DT with White surround and Off White center. Southeast movement expected to continue for next 48 hours.

-----

Brisbane keeping the Dvorak at 6.5
what are the actual wind speeds in Hamish, Is itt a cat five by our standards?
Man... stay safe, AussieStorm. You poor folks have just getting hammered this year!
At 7:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Five [925 hPa] located at 19.7S 150.2E or 145 kms east northeast of Hayman Is and 195 kms north northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 9 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a VERY SIGNIFICANT THREAT to coastal and island communities Bowen and Bundaberg. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track parallel to the coast during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Damaging wind gusts are expected to affect coastal and island communities between Bowen and Bundaberg during the next 24 hours.

Destructive winds are expected to affect exposed coastal and island communities between the Whitsunday Islands and Yeppoon during the next 24 hours. However, the very destructive core of Cyclone Hamish is no longer expected to impact on the Whitsunday Islands.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Bundaberg and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Heavy rainbands associated with Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish are likely to cause some flooding in smaller coastal rivers and streams between Mackay and Yeppoon during Sunday and into Monday. Heavy rainfalls are likely to affect the coastal streams between Yeppoon to Maryborough during Monday and Tuesday. A separate Flood Warning has been issued for these areas.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Bowen to Bundaberg.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Bundaberg to Tewantin.
All4hurricanes

115 x 1.15 (132 knots) on the Saffir Simpson Scale high end Category 4
155. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Likely because of the arguments by Global Warming.


You're probably correct.
I think Hamish has peaked, the eye temps are cooling and the eyewall temp's are warming.
Quoting Ossqss:


Should see an eyewall replacement cycle in the near future if the land does not weaken it to much.
Cyclone Hamish menaces Queensland coast
Article from: The Courier-Mail

Ursula Heger and Patrick Lion

March 08, 2009

UPDATE: SWOLLEN seas are expected to flood low-lying homes in the state's north as Cyclone Hamish menaces the far north coast of Queensland.

The Category 5 cyclone, packing winds of up to 295km/hr was this morning moving parallel to the Queensland coast 145km northeast of Hayman Island.

Hamish, which is moving south at about 17km/h, has not caused major damage to coastal communities overnight.

Bureau of Meteorology senior weather forecaster Vikash Prasad said island communities were being hit by winds of about 90km/hr, sea swells and some rain.

"The cyclone will contain damaging wind gusts along the coast from Bowen to Bundaberg," he said.

"They could experience up to 295km/hr winds but they are usually closer to the centre of the cyclone."

Mr Prasad said Cyclone Hamish was not likely to cross the coast at least the next 48 hours.

"It is away from the coast running parallel to the coast, and won't make landfall within the next 48 hours," he said.

"Beyond that we just don't know yet."

He said the cyclone was expected to reach waters off the town of 1770 by early Tuesday.
Premier Anna Bligh said the danger appeared to have passed Townsville and flooding fears in Mackay has eased but emergncy services as far south as Tewantin had been put on alert.

Campers and residents on Fraser Island were being evacuated from the southern end of the island at low tide.

She said she had contacted Prime Minister Kevin Rudd last night and he had promised full support from federal resources, including the armed services.

Emergency Management Queensland coordinator-general Frank Pagano said Hamish was still a major threat.

"It is very similar to 'Larry','' he said. ''It's going to be destructive but will move very quickly.''



Mackay received 165mm of rain over the past 24 hours, with minor flooding expected in low-lying areas this morning.

Mackay police's Sgt Nigel Dalton said some residents had risked their lives trying to watch the weather system.

"At the moment we are monitoring the high tide and just policing some locals down at the breakwater who walked around the barriers and were gathering on the rocks to watch the high tide come in," he said.

"We are obviously warning people not to go out sightseeing, endangering their lives and possibly others if they have to be rescued."

He said some residents in lower-lying areas were anticipating some flooding.

"There may be some localised flooding in the older areas of Mackay along the river and along the areas near the creeks."

"But we are very relieved it hasn't been worse at the moment," he said.

TOP PRIORITY FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 21
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:47am on Sunday the 8th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Bowen
to Bundaberg. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities
from Bundaberg to Tewantin.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 5 CYCLONE, is located off the north
Queensland coast and at 10:00 am EST was estimated to be 175 kilometres
northeast of Mackay and 335 kilometres north of Yeppoon, moving south southeast
at 19 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a very significant threat to coastal and
island communities between Bowen and Bundaberg. The cyclone is expected to
maintain a south-southeast track parallel to the coast during the next 24 to 48
hours.

Damaging wind gusts are expected to affect coastal and island communities
between Bowen and Bundaberg during the next 24 hours.

Destructive winds are expected to affect exposed coastal and island communities
between Mackay and Gladstone during the next 24 hours.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Bundaberg and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may
develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the south-southeast, sea levels are expected to be
elevated above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large
waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Heavy rainbands associated with Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish are likely to
cause some flooding in smaller coastal rivers and streams between Mackay and
Yeppoon during today and into Monday. Heavy rainfalls are likely to affect the
coastal streams between Yeppoon to Maryborough during Monday and Tuesday. A
separate Flood Warning has been issued for these areas.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 20.1 degrees South 150.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 19 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals


People between Bowen and Bundaberg should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People between Bundaberg and Tewantin should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to
be taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.


The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm EST Sunday 08 March.

Macaky RADAR Link
One problem I can see in the coming few days with TC Hamish is, its heading towards Hervey Bay which is a U shaped bay, which could funnel the storm surge and have it build bigger than if TC Hamish had hit a non bay part of the coast. Qld's highest tidal storm surge was recorded in 1899 TC Mahena had a tidal storm surge of 15 metres.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-110E
12:15 PM WDT March 8 2009
=====================================

A tropical low is located near 14.0S 81.0E. The low is forecast to move slowly southeast over the next few days, but is not expected to affect areas east of 90E.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Low

---
97S..
yall think that could make it over to the atlantic?>?
At 1:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Four [940 hPa] located at 20.4S 150.6E or 170 kms east northeast of Mackay and 305 kms north of Yeppoon has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southeast at 9 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a significant threat to coastal and island communities between Mackay and Bundaberg. The cyclone is expected to maintain a south-southeast track parallel to the coast during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Damaging wind gusts are expected to affect coastal and island communities between Mackay and Bundaberg during the next 24 hours.

Destructive winds are expected to affect exposed coastal and island communities between Mackay and Gladstone during the next 24 hours.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Bundaberg and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the south-southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Heavy rainbands associated with Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish are likely to cause some flooding in smaller coastal rivers and streams between Mackay and Yeppoon during today and into Monday. Heavy rainfalls are likely to affect the coastal streams between Yeppoon to Maryborough during Monday and Tuesday. A separate Flood Warning has been issued for these areas.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Mackay to Bundaberg.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Bundaberg to Tewantin

The Cyclone WARNING from Bowen to Mackay has been cancelled.

---
BOM lowers the intensity of Hamish at the 3:00 am UTC advice


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:51pm on Sunday the 8th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Mackay
to Bundaberg. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities
from Bundaberg to Tewantin.

The Cyclone WARNING from Bowen to Mackay has been cancelled.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE, is located off the north
Queensland coast and at 1:00 pm EST was estimated to be 170 kilometres east
northeast of Mackay and 305 kilometres north of Yeppoon, moving south southeast
at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a significant threat to coastal and island
communities between Mackay and Bundaberg. The cyclone is expected to maintain a
south-southeast track parallel to the coast during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Damaging wind gusts are expected to affect coastal and island communities
between Mackay and Bundaberg during the next 24 hours.

Destructive winds are expected to affect exposed coastal and island communities
between Mackay and Gladstone during the next 24 hours.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Bundaberg and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may
develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the south-southeast, sea levels are expected to be
elevated above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large
waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas
likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their
property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Heavy rainbands associated with Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish are likely to
cause some flooding in smaller coastal rivers and streams between Mackay and
Yeppoon during today and into Monday. Heavy rainfalls are likely to affect the
coastal streams between Yeppoon to Maryborough during Monday and Tuesday. A
separate Flood Warning has been issued for these areas.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 20.4 degrees South 150.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 260 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 940 hectoPascals

People between Mackay and Bundaberg should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People between Bundaberg and Tewantin should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to
be taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.


The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Sunday 08 March.
Tropical Cyclone Hamish
Martin Palmer, Saturday March 7, 2009

Tropical Cyclone Hamish has rapidly developed from a tropical low in the Coral Sea into one of the most powerful systems so far this season.

Currently a category 4 cyclone sitting off the east coast of Queensland, Hamish is estimated to have central wind gusts up to 230 km/h. The storm thankfully, has kept well offshore, keeping hurricane force winds and the heaviest rainfall away from the mainland. However, some heavy falls have been recorded along the Tropical Coast. Places recovering after the recent floods, such as Innisfail, have received 107mm in the last 24 hours.

Hamish is paralleling the coast on a south-southeast heading at around 16km/h, keeping about 250 to 300km offshore. Ironically, by keeping away from land, Hamish has been fed huge volumes of energy by the warm seas beneath. This has allowed the system to reach a category 4 status, fast. Although not expected to move onshore within the next 48 hours, heavy rain and strong winds are expected all along the QLD Tropical and Central Coast.
168. ayi
Friends in Mackay adopted a 'life as usual' approach, seeing that flooding seems to have become a usual situation this season. Winds only got to about 70 kph and appear to be easing. Hamilton Island only got to about 95 kph.

Reminds me a few years ago we had Ingrid come by a lot closer than Hamish to Mackay. Ingrid had winds to 320 kph. Being a more intense tighter system we got no wind or rain, but just over the horizon they were copping hell. You can be lucky.
If you were going to pick one of these up to experiment with for a weather cam... which would you get?

Linksys® WVC54GCA Wireless-G Internet Monitoring Camera

or this one?

D-Link® DCS-920 Wireless-G Internet Security Camera
Quoting ayi:
Friends in Mackay adopted a 'life as usual' approach, seeing that flooding seems to have become a usual situation this season. Winds only got to about 70 kph and appear to be easing. Hamilton Island only got to about 95 kph.

Reminds me a few years ago we had Ingrid come by a lot closer than Hamish to Mackay. Ingrid had winds to 320 kph. Being a more intense tighter system we got no wind or rain, but just over the horizon they were copping hell. You can be lucky.


That is very true... TC's are mostly much tighter systems, therefore there effects aren't felt over a wide area, unlike Hurricanes and Super-Typhoons. I remember Ike almost filled the whole of the GOM with its size.

TOP PRIORITY FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23

Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:56pm on Sunday the 8th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Saint
Lawrence to Bundaberg [including the Percy group of islands]. A Cyclone WATCH
remains current for coastal and island communities from Bundaberg to Tewantin.

The Cyclone WARNING from Mackay to Saint Lawrence has been cancelled.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE, is located off the north
Queensland coast and at 4:00 pm EST was estimated to be 215 kilometres northeast
of St Lawrence and 260 kilometres north of Yeppoon, moving southeast at 13
kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a significant threat to coastal and island
communities between Saint Lawrence and Bundaberg [including the Percy group of
islands]. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track parallel to the
coast during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Damaging wind gusts are expected to affect coastal and island communities
between Saint Lawrence and Bundaberg during the next 24 hours.

Destructive winds are expected to affect island communities between Saint
Lawrence and Bundaberg [including the Percy group of islands] during the next 24
hours.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Bundaberg and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may
develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated
above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may
produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Heavy rainbands associated with Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish are likely to
cause some flooding in smaller coastal rivers and streams between Mackay and
Yeppoon tonight. Heavy rainfalls are likely to affect the coastal streams
between Yeppoon and Fraser Island during Monday and Tuesday. A separate Flood
Warning has been issued for these areas.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 20.8 degrees South 150.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 240 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 950 hectoPascals


People between Saint Lawrence and Bundaberg [including the Percy group of
islands] should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially
securing boats and property.

People between Bundaberg and Tewantin should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to
be taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.


The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Sunday 08 March.
Just did a little digging on Bureau of Meteorology website and found some excellent Radar which have Hamish in view, these self-update.

Click image for animation.




Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20082009
10:00 AM Réunion March 8 2009
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10R (1000 hPa) located at 14.4S 80.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 30 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south-southeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.0S 81.6E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)
24 HRS: 16.3S 83.7E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
48 HRS: 18.8S 85.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 19.1S 83.6E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================
Convective activity has developed in the vicinity of the center over last night, but the system barely intensifies. It still undergoes an upper level constraint as shown by the partially exposed low level circulation center in the north of the convection. This low level circulation center remains rather poorly defined on the animated imagery. Winds are calibrated according to Quikscat Data at 0056z. At 0100z, Buoy near 16580 measured 1000.7 hPa in the east of the estimated center. The system should intensify very gradually within an environment which should improve mainly with the decrease of the wind shear. The system tracks southeast under the steering influence of a mid level near equatorial ridge. Beyond 36 hrs, available models show a curve and then a westward track, under the influence of the building subtropical ridge. Forecast is based on a consensus of the available NWP.


Disturbance 10-20082009 (very noticeable)



TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24

Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:50pm on Sunday the 8th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Saint
Lawrence to Bundaberg [including the Percy group of islands].
A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from
Bundaberg to Tewantin.

The Cyclone WARNING from Mackay to Saint Lawrence has been cancelled.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE, is located off the north
Queensland coast and at 7:00 pm EST was estimated to be 235 kilometres northeast
of St Lawrence and 255 kilometres north of Yeppoon, moving southeast at 13
kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a significant threat to coastal and island
communities between Saint Lawrence and Bundaberg [including the Percy group of
islands]. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track parallel to the
coast during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Damaging wind gusts are expected to affect coastal and island communities
between Saint Lawrence and Bundaberg during the next 24 hours.

Destructive winds are expected to affect island communities between Saint
Lawrence and Bundaberg [including the Percy group of islands] during the next 24
hours.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Bundaberg and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may
develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated
above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may
produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall are likely to develop between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay
on Monday.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 7:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 20.9 degrees South 151.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 949 hectoPascals


People between Saint Lawrence and Bundaberg [including the Percy group of
islands] should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially
securing boats and property.

People between Bundaberg and Tewantin should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to
be taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.


The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Sunday 08 March.
Photobucket


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 48
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 635 AM UNTIL 200
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 25 MILES NORTH OF ALTON ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER WW AREA AS HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP ASCENT
SHARPLY INCREASE ATOP WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING MO SFC LOW.
STRENGTH OF LOW LVL SHEAR /50 KT/ AND EXISTING QUASI-DISCRETE STORM
STRUCTURES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

KSC011-MOC217-081200-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090308T1200Z/
BOURBON KS-VERNON MO-
629 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN BOURBON AND NORTHWESTERN VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 629 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT CONTINUED TO TRACK A TORNADO
NEAR HAMMOND...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF FORT SCOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
BOURBON AND NORTHWESTERN VERNON COUNTIES.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO WALNUT SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
Monster storm to rival Katrina

A CYCLONE on a par with the hurricane that almost destroyed New Orleans is threatening to wreak havoc along a vast stretch of the Queensland coast.

Thousands of residents and holidaymakers - including many Victorians - were today evacuated from Fraser Island and other tourist resorts as central Queensland braced for the full impact of Cyclone Hamish.

The weather bureau predicts the cyclone will hammer the state with wind gusts up to 260km/h.

It said Hamish would bring storm tides, destructive wind, heavy rain and flooding to southeast Queensland by Tuesday night.

Weather bureau regional director Jim Davidson said tomorrow was shaping up as the probable moment of truth for Queenslanders.

He said although it had been a "very well-behaved cyclone", tracking parallel to the Queensland coast for 48 hours, Hamish was also "small, compact and very intense" and on a par with Hurricane Katrina, which slammed into New Orleans.

Forecasters warned if the cyclone crossed the coast it could be as destructive as Cyclone Larry, the category five system that wreaked havoc on far north Queensland in March 2006.

Victorians at Whitsunday resorts yesterday told how they had endured a tense night waiting for the cyclone to strike.

Hawthorn nurse Steve Dashwood, working on Hayman Island, said the island was buffeted by wind up to 280km/h early on Sunday morning, reaching its peak about 3am.

"Luckily there was no damage. There was widespread tree damage, but no reported injuries," Mr Dashwood said.

Yesterday, the island was still under siege from strong wind and choppy seas but the main threat had passed.

In Mackay, truck driver Jamie Lewis, formerly of Ararat, said the supermarkets had been cleaned out of non-perishable food.

"Coles have sold out of canned food and water. Everyone was going berserk," Mr Lewis said. "At the moment, there's a lot of rain. There's a bit of flooding."

Mr Lewis said he had removed garden ornaments from his yard and taped windows.

"We've got a room in the middle of the house that is cyclone proof," he said. "Most people have got water, food, first aid kits and torches."

Emergency Services Minister Neil Roberts said up to 1000 campers and 2000 residents and resort guests were evacuated from Fraser Island, which was severely damaged by Cyclone Dinah in 1967.

Mr Davidson said yesterday the Yeppoon to Gladstone coastal strip was the area now at risk with gale force wind likely to hit this morning.

By tonight the cyclone was expected to be in the Lady Elliott and Heron islands area, which were also evacuated yesterday.

"The majority of our computer models suggest it will be in the vicinity of Hervey Bay by Tuesday night, and if that scenario eventuates we'll see a fairly significant storm tide as well as destructive wind, heavy rain and flooding," Mr Davidson said.

Premier Anna Bligh said the evacuation was proceeding smoothly and people were moving off their campsites and taking their vehicles to get off the southern end of the island.
Link


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 25

Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:40pm on Sunday the 8th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Saint
Lawrence to Bundaberg.
A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from
Bundaberg to Tewantin.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE, is located off the Central
Queensland coast and at 10:00 pm EST was estimated to be 230 kilometres east of
Mackay and 235 kilometres north northeast of Yeppoon, moving southeast at 12
kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a threat to exposed coastal and island
communities between Saint Lawrence and Bundaberg [including the Percy group of
islands and Heron Island]. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track
parallel to the coast during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Damaging winds are currently being experienced on the Percy Group of islands.
Damaging winds are likely to develop between Shoalwater Bay and Gladstone
overnight and are expected to extend south over other exposed coastal and island
communities to Bundaberg during Monday.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Bundaberg and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may
develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated
above the normal tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may
produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be
affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much
as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall are likely to develop between Yeppoon and Tewantin on
Monday.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 21.1 degrees South 151.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals


People between Saint Lawrence and Bundaberg should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People between Bundaberg and Tewantin should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to
be taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Monday 09 March.
Rainman - nice find !! Post #172
The severe weather threat for today has increased.
The SPC recently upgraded the risk of severe weather to Moderate in MO...IL...AND
IND...



Photobucket


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN MO...IL...AND
IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MS
AND LWR OH VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY TROUGH NOW
DIGGING INTO THE WRN U.S. FROM WRN CANADA...WHILE RIDGE PERSISTS
FROM THE GULF OF MEX INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL
ACCELERATE POTENT KS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ENE INTO IL TODAY...AND INTO
MI/IND TONIGHT...BEFORE THE SYSTEM TURNS MORE E OR ESE INTO NY/PA
EARLY MON.

AT THE SFC...LOW NOW OVER N CNTRL MO SHOULD REACH SRN LK MI BY EARLY
EVE...AND UPSTATE NY BY 12Z MONDAY...AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES
SE INTO THE TN...LWR MS...AND RED RVR VLYS. WRN PART OF BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO RE-FORM NWD ACROSS OK AND KS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
AMPLIFYING WRN U.S. TROUGH INDUCES LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN CO.

...MID MS INTO LWR OH VLYS...
LEADING EDGE OF DPVA/STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH KS UPR IMPULSE
HAS OVERTAKEN WRN EDGE OF SFC WARM SECTOR IN THE PAST HOUR. THIS
LIKELY HAS SUPPORTED RECENT INCREASE IN STRENGTH OF STORMS ALONG
COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING W CNTRL MO.

AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOW VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THE
KS VORT...WITH MID LVL WSW FLOW NEAR 100 KTS...AND 40-50 KT 0-1 KM
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 60 KT SWLY LLJ. PERSISTENCE OF LLJ HAS
ALLOWED FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE OZARKS
INTO THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY... WITH STLT
PW DATA AVERAGING AROUND 1.25 INCHES. ALTHOUGH RAOBS SHOW
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CIN...500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE
APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE IN WARM SECTOR GIVEN FORCED UPLIFT.

CLOUDS WILL HINDER WARM SECTOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...AND MID LVL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED AS IMPULSE CONTINUES ENEWD. BUT COMBINED
STRENGTH OF FORCING AND WIND FIELD...COUPLED WITH EVEN MODEST
HEATING...SUGGESTS THAT EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR SVR WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLD TORNADOES
EWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS THROUGH EARLY EVE.

AHEAD OF THE MAIN AXIS OF ASCENT...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING UPR DIVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SMALLER
CLUSTERS/SHORT BANDS OF STORMS ALONG AND N OF WARM/STNRY FROM NRN IL
INTO NRN IND/OH. DESPITE BEING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THESE MAY POSE A
MORE ISOLD RISK OF SVR.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 03/08/2009
Quoting Orcasystems:
If you were going to pick one of these up to experiment with for a weather cam... which would you get?

Linksys® WVC54GCA Wireless-G Internet Monitoring Camera

or this one?

D-Link® DCS-920 Wireless-G Internet Security Camera



linksys one,hands down!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:



linksys one,hands down!!!


I second that. I have had a couple of d-link components that worked great for a while (less than one year) and could not be brought back to life through their "support"-system (notice the quotes).

Never had a linksys item quit working...

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery TC Hamish

Quoting AussieStorm:


That is very true... TC's are mostly much tighter systems, therefore there effects aren't felt over a wide area, unlike Hurricanes and Super-Typhoons. I remember Ike almost filled the whole of the GOM with its size.


Give it time. Most of our hurricanes 20 degrees from the equator are vorticanes, too. As Hamish moves away from the equator, it is very likely to expand and go through more than one EWRC. (I see you guys are seeing one of those.)
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Intensity,TC Hamish

What really is going on at the end of this? Dry air entrainment? Does not look like shear.

Or maybe it is just an artifact of satellite viewing angle or something comparable.

Quoting Patrap:
RAMMB-SH182009 - Tropical Cyclone HAMISH,from the wunderground Tropical Page


Intensity sure does to appear to have peaked, Pat. Doesn't mean it will not expand and effect a larger area with plenty of punch, though (e.g. Katrina, Ike, Ivan, etc.).
Morning atmo,..looks like the SST's are falling off along this Se track.

Good Morning everyone i have started my Boat, Tide, and Beach section on my Web Site! I hope to finish this week. Any ideas let me know...Thanks!



TampaSpins Link
I would dare to say..Yes, as the combo of maybe Dry Continental Air entrainment like you mentioned and the SST's falling off may keep this one on the decline.
Austrailia Lucky She Slid a Lil more offshore as that One U-Shaped Bay was a potential High Surge area.
Quoting Patrap:
Morning atmo,..looks like the SST's are falling off along this Se track.



Yeah. Seemed to be a lot of changes, and rather rapid changes, to blame SST, but could be. Those MIMIC loops move so fast through time...deceiving about how much time actually elapses.
The MIMIC Imagery always gives me the willies,LOL
Quoting atmoaggie:
What really is going on at the end of this? Dry air entrainment? Does not look like shear.

Or maybe it is just an artifact of satellite viewing angle or something comparable.

These morphed depictionns are not always visibly trustworthy.
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH) WARNING NR 007
WTPS31 PGTW 081500


....THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THEN MOVE INCREASINGLY SEAWARD. DEEP LAYER
RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM; ALTHOUGH, IF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED,
LOW TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARDS LAND.
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET, WILL PROMOTE THIS WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND
091500Z.
Quoting Ossqss:
These morphed depictionns are not always visibly trustworthy.


Yes. I put that caveat in the post (just not a succinctly as you put it). I agree.

In this case, though, the IR loops are showing the same behavior...generally becoming less organized and collapsing eyewall sections.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=SH182009&st arting_image=2009SH18_4KMIRIMG_200903051230.GIF
Programmable RAIN? We need some in Fl. This is weather related at the end.



Quoting atmoaggie:


I second that. I have had a couple of d-link components that worked great for a while (less than one year) and could not be brought back to life through their "support"-system (notice the quotes).

Never had a linksys item quit working...


I will pickup at least one today... if I it works I may get a couple more.
BTW... someone forgot to turn on the heat this morning.. its freezing.

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site



Current Home weather station data.
126.

The western coastline in the Lesser Antilles is being affected by the low pressure system, they pulled all the boats in yesterday and even to this nonsailor the seas past the harbor look very rough, no way I'd go out there on purpose.

Its nothing like Hurricane Omar, mind you, but the western shore of Dominica is taking a hit from this system, the surge is very strong.
Hmm, looks like Hamish will turn out to sea. Here in S. Ontario, after the rain we had yesterday, we're expected to see a winter storm! Some areas are expected to get 20 cm (8 in) of snow, while other areas could get 15 mm (0.6 in) of freezing rain, so it looks like we could go skiing on Friday after all.
Photobucket

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 49
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1040 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
Link
Quoting Orcasystems:


I will pickup at least one today... if I it works I may get a couple more.
I 3rd that. I have had very good luck with them. However, I place all my network equipment on my UPS ( modem and wireless router ). That way it is protected from black or brown outs. Low voltage to those devices will kill them. Plus when the power goes out, I have internet for many hours on the laptop.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 26

Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:41am on Monday the 9th of March 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Saint
Lawrence to Bundaberg. A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island
communities from Bundaberg to Tewantin.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE, is located off the central
Queensland coast and at 1:00 am EST was estimated to be 260 kilometres east of
Mackay and 225 kilometres north northeast of Yeppoon, moving southeast at 12
kilometres per hour. (slowing)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a threat to exposed coastal and island
communities between Saint Lawrence and Bundaberg [including the Percy group of
islands and Heron Island]. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track
parallel to the coast during the next 24 hours.

Damaging winds are currently occurring in exposed coastal areas and islands
between Shoalwater Bay and Gladstone and are expected to extend south over other
exposed coastal and island communities to Bundaberg during Monday.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Bundaberg and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may
develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated
above the normal tide along the coastline. Large waves may produce minor
flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by
this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible
and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall are likely to develop between Yeppoon and Tewantin on
Monday.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 1:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 21.3 degrees South 151.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 12 kilometres per hour (slowing)
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 945 hectoPascals


People between Saint Lawrence and Bundaberg should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

People between Bundaberg and Tewantin should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to
be taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Monday 09 March.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Hmm, looks like Hamish will turn out to sea. Here in S. Ontario, after the rain we had yesterday, we're expected to see a winter storm! Some areas are expected to get 20 cm (8 in) of snow, while other areas could get 15 mm (0.6 in) of freezing rain, so it looks like we could go skiing on Friday after all.
What do you know that our BOM doesn't know??
Quoting AussieStorm:
What do you know that our BOM doesn't know??


Looks like Hamish is starting to tighten up again. It has gotten more symetrical over the last sereral hours. That right hand turn is not a good thing if it prevails.

\

RE: Hamish
How much of the rain will eventually make it's way to the southeast coast?
Haven't look at the recent,but Hamish hanging on,that RAMMB imagery is kinda stale and behind,the graphs.
The Forecast calls for a late turn inland.
How much water it'll be moving by then depends on her wind field.
Interesting watching these down under Cyclones.

This one problematic for that Coastal Population.

Thanx to aussie for bringing the updates.
TPPS10 PGTW 081814

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (HAMISH)

B. 08/1730Z

C. 21.5S

D. 152.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 12 NM OW EYE WITH BLACK SURROUND
MEETING REQUIREMENTS YIELDS 5.5 E# WITH 0.5 ADDED FOR EYE ADJUST
WITH WHITE RING YIELDS 6.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/1458Z 21.4S 151.7E MMHS
08/1518Z 21.1S 151.7E AMSR


OATES


You should zoom that out one level patrap...
second one...
One cant control the zoom in that defaulted posted link.

It's not too hard to do it manually now,....tis' it Mr. Spock..?

Quoting Patrap:
One cant control the zoom in that defaulted posted link.

It's not too hard to do it manually now,....tis' it Mr. Spock..?



Nothin like a Dylithium Crystal tan eh?
We forgot the Dilithium Sunscreen..


But we pre-registered for the "wunderground.com Sponsored Portlight New Orleans Relief Walk".


..We have a Multi-Walk Pass.

India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (1800z 08Mar)
====================================
Under the influence of the trough of low at Sri Lanka over southwest Bay of Bengal and N/H

A low pressure area has formed over the same area associated circulation up to 2.1 kms ASL

---
anyone know the IMD indentification for N/H.. I always thought it meant "neighborhood" area.. this doesn't seem to be the case.
I think maybe its a road

West Bengal travel guide - WikitravelMajor road connections are NH 2 from Delhi, NH 5 from Chennai, NH 6 from...
Looks to me like Hamish is going under some stuctual changes, Notice the colder cloud tops in the last frame...

ah a road.. no wonder I couldn't find districts near India that would fit the N/H intials
Ah yes, it looks like we will be getting 15 mm (0.6 in) of freezing rain tonight. Some of those thunderstorms are also approaching our area, which could increase the rainfall amount even if they're no longer thunderstorms by then. One of the tornado-producing storms is heading towards us as well.
This has gone so far off expected that the newest forecasts can easily be spotted since they are inished from around where it is now..the group starting to the right. (actually this will update & eventually look like nothing I've commented about.
Latest Video From Futuremet Productions

"Planetary Scale Baroclinity Part 2"



Click the HD button for high definition quality

CONVECTIVE CELLS

Air converges (or any place that is heated more than anywhere else during the year) at the equator, there it rises due to the instability and condenses at higher altitudes. When the air reaches the level of thermal equilibrium, it is dry, and will then begin to diverge and move toward both sides of the equator. When it reaches near 30 degrees north or south, it will sink creating a stable air mass. This is why the primary high pressure systems such as the Bermuda high, and the Azores high are located near subtropical regions. Further, if you look at global water vapor imagery, you will notice that that most of the time the air near the subtropical regions in both hemispheres are drier than anywhere else. Now as the air parcels sink, they will warm adiabatically; some will flow back toward the equator and some will continue to flow toward the poles. Now, since the air that is moving toward the poles is adiabatically warmed, it will start to acquire positive buoyancy and rise again, and it is commonly known as the Ferrel Cell. Meanwhile, air is sinking incessantly at the poles, and this area of sinking air is commonly known as the polar high. So, what%u2019s next? The sinking from the poles will then flow southward and warm adiabatically. As it continues to move southward, it will eventually meet with another area of rising air (Ferrel Cell) that is moving northward. Once both of air masses meet, they will converge, just like what happened at the ITCZ.

So you should be asking...How does these events relate to atmospheric baroclinity?
Well think about it%u2026The temperature and pressure gradients within the earth is what helps these regions of %u201Ckey convergence%u201D to form. If the earth was flat, there would be no Hadley, polar, and Ferrell Cell. In fact, mid-latitude cyclones would not exist, since there would only be one air mass. Only mesoscale baroclinity would remain.
Since its only a matter of time until CO2 becomes the blog topic again ...

"Growing Acid Problem Thins Shells of Ocean Creatures"

"As carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels has accumulated in the atmosphere, some of it has been absorbed by the ocean."

Emphasis added. The vague wording is regrettable. From Wikipedia:

"At the present time, approximately one third[11] of anthropogenic emissions [of CO2] are estimated to be entering the ocean."
Signs of a weakening cyclone with increasing vertical wind shear:
Quoting Drakoen:
Signs of a weakening cyclone with increasing vertical wind shear:


Getting either an EWRC or some windshear. Hurricanes don't usually maintain that kind of intensity for long.

sorry just found a really weird track for a typhoon and had to post it
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20082009
4:00 AM Réunion March 9 2009
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10R (1000 hPa) located at 15.5S 84.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving east-southeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.6S 85.4E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)
24 HRS: 17.9S 86.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
48 HRS: 18.2S 85.7E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
72 HRS: 17.1S 82.5E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================
The system barely intensifies. It still undergoes an upper level constraint as shown by the partially exposed low level circulation center in the north of the convection (See F16 1419z and AQUA 2013z). The poleward divergence is well established. Low level inflow is rather good equatorwards, but is weakened polewards by a transient low level trough. At 1810z, Buoy number 53525 measured 1000.1 hPa in the vicinity of the estimated center. On the edge of the upper level ridge, system should intensify slightly within an environment which should improve mainly with the decrease of the wind shear. The system tracks southeast under the steering influence of a mid level near equatorial ridge. Beyond 24 hrs, available models show a curve and then a westward or west-northwest track, under the influence of the rebuilding low level subtropical ridge.

AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARINIGS.
The low that recently formed in the central Atlantic, from the tail of the last front, is down to 1003mb.
fresh quikscat


Skye - saw your picture on LowerCal's blog -- way cool -- if you want to find Saturn check out Lower Cal's blog -- all kinds of good stuff up there -- fun to check out when you're dog walking at night
I updated the wx news most interesting..
The search for clues to the cause of damage to a tanker in the Gulf of Mexico led to the discovery of a submerged mobile offshore drilling unit missing since Hurricane Ike.

Lotta wide spread drought still going on.
Thanks~ it was a spectacular launch. I already checked out about saturn in there:)
Hurricane Season Approaches -- soon many of us will be Mother Nature's Target Practice -- check out the Portlight blog above -- by participating and/or donating you help direct aid to people in need when there is a hurricane crisis.


If there isn't a walk in your area -- pick a blog buddy and send your donation to their event....don't have a blog buddy --pick a city you wish to support. Participate and be part of a grassroots organization - by the people for the people - that gets your donation to the people in need.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWENTY-NINE
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 4 (11U)
10:50 AM EST March 9 2009
==============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Four [945 hPa] located at 22.1S 152.6E or 225 kms east northeast of Yeppoon and 310 kms north of Bundaberg has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 7 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a threat to exposed coastal and island communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay [including Heron and Lady Elliot Islands]. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track parallel to the coast during the next 24 hours.

Damaging winds are expected to continue to affect exposed islands between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Hervey Bay and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may develop within 48 hours.

As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal tide along the coastline and large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Yeppoon to Hervey Bay

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Hervey Bay to Tewantin.

TC Technical Bulletin
=================

Hurricane Force Winds
---------------------
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
------------------
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
--------------
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
-----------------------
12 HRS: 23.0S 153.5E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 23.6S 154.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 23.5S 154.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 23.7S 152.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Remarks:
DT based on eye pattern with B surround of MG eye based on EIR and VIS. CI maintained for initial period of weakening trend.

System is moving into increasing shear and likely to continue weakening over the next 72 hours. Track is dependent on weakening trend as low level circulation will feel low level steering influence and slow or reverse movement as the system becomes weaker. Likely continued southeast movement for another 24 hours, then slow movement.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/W0.5/24HRS
sky is that a closed SURFACE low???,what are the sst's in that area???
From the discussion at 8..

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES SYSTEM PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH A 1004 MB OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N51W. THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N46W ALONG 20N44W SW TO
10N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT
WHILE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE NE OF THE LOW IS AIDING IN
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM NE OF THE
FRONT N OF 24N. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
WINDS PARTICULARLY TO THE W AND N SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW CENTER.
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR DETAILS.

$$
GR


20-25' waves

Probibly peaked for now though may pull a reprise for The Azores.

Yellow starts ar 26ºC..still pretty cold.


Pretty sloppy, 1/2 naked but big..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTY
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 4 (11U)
1:50 PM EST March 9 2009
==============================

At 1:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Four [945 hPa] located at 22.5S 152.9E or 230 kms east northeast of Yeppoon and 270 kms north northeast of Bundaberg has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a threat to exposed coastal and island communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay [including Heron, Fraser and Lady Elliot Islands]. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track parallel to the coast during the next 24 hours. In the 24 to 48 hour period the cyclone is expected to become slow moving and weaken slightly.

Damaging winds are expected to continue to affect exposed coasts and island communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay.

Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Hervey Bay and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may develop within 48 hours.v As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal tide along the coastline and large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Yeppoon to Hervey Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Hervey Bay to Tewantin.
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (0130z 09MAR)
===========================================
An area of convection (97S/10R) located at 15.9S 84.1E or 860 NM southeast of Diego Garcia. Animated infrared imagery indicates that the low level circulation center has continued to consolidate with deep convection persisting over the southern quadrant of the low level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicated the low level circulation center is currently located equatorward of the upper level subtropical ridge axis, which is providing ample poleward outflow. The location of the center in relation to the ridge axis is helping to keep the vertical wind shear low. An upper level longwave trough upstream has been helping to enhance poleward outflow, but has kept the vertical wind shear high on the southwestern quadrant of the area.

Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 25-30 kntos with a minimum sea level pressure of 1003 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0230z 09MAR)
=========================================
An area of convection (90B) located at 6.5N 82.0E or 130 NM east of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Animated enhanced water vapor imagery shows and a 2007z AMSR-E Microwave Image depicts deep convection developing over a broad region of turning consolidating into a low level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates the region is under the influence of low to moderate vertical wind shear and has good poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures in the area are favorable for development as well.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-110E
12:15 PM WDT March 9 2009
=====================================

A tropical low (Tropical Disturbance 10 - RSMC Reunion), located west of the region near 17S 85E, is forecast to move slowly southeast over the next 48 hours and weaken. It is not expected to affect areas east of 90E.

  • A low may develop in the vicinity of 10S 95E later in the week and will be monitored for possible development towards the weekend.

    Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
    ====================================
    Tuesday: Low
    Wednesday: Low
    Thursday: Low
  • Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
    Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTY-ONE
    SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 4 (11U)
    4:50 PM EST March 9 2009
    ==============================

    At 4:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Four [945 hPa] located at 22.8S 153.2E or 255 kms east of Yeppoon and 245 kms north northeast of Bundaberg has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 9 knots.

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish poses a threat to exposed coastal and island communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay [including Heron, Fraser and Lady Elliot Islands]. The cyclone is expected to maintain a southeast track parallel to the coast during the next 24 hours. In the 24 to 48 hour period the cyclone is expected to become slow moving and weaken slightly.

    Damaging winds are expected to continue to affect exposed coasts and island communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay.

    Damaging winds are not expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Hervey Bay and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may develop within 48 hours.

    As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal tide along the coastline and large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

    Tropical Cyclone Warnings
    ======================
    A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Yeppoon to Hervey Bay.

    A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Hervey Bay to Tewantin.

    TC Technical Bulletin
    =================

    Hurricane Force Winds
    ---------------------
    40 NM from the center

    Storm Force Winds
    ------------------
    70 NM from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    --------------
    120 NM from the center

    Forecast and Intensity
    -----------------------
    12 HRS: 23.4S 153.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
    24 HRS: 23.8S 154.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
    48 HRS: 23.6S 153.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
    72 HRS: 23.3S 152.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

    Remarks:
    DT based on VIS eye pattern with 0.8 degree embedded centre. DT of 5.5. CI maintained for 0.5 above FT. System is moving into increasing shear and likely to begin weakening in the 12
    to 18 hour period. Track is dependent on weakening trend as low level circulation will feel low level steering influence and slow or reverse movement as the system becomes weaker
    Hamish looks better it might re-intensify briefly. Is Hamish at all a threat to Fiji?
    Quoting Skyepony:
    From the discussion at 8..

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...
    A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES SYSTEM PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
    WITH A 1004 MB OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N51W. THE
    ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N46W ALONG 20N44W SW TO
    10N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT
    WHILE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE NE OF THE LOW IS AIDING IN
    GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM NE OF THE
    FRONT N OF 24N. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
    WINDS PARTICULARLY TO THE W AND N SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW CENTER.
    SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR DETAILS.

    $$
    GR


    20-25' waves

    Probibly peaked for now though may pull a reprise for The Azores.

    Yellow starts ar 26ºC..still pretty cold.


    Pretty sloppy, 1/2 naked but big..



    ....aaaahhhh, ahhh, I say it's a bit early for that ain't it? ;P

    Thanks for the post, Skye, and good morning!
    Good morning.
    There is the potential for more severe weather today.
    At the moment the threat does not appear as severe as yesterday's across the Midwest.
    But it's early and the event will not get started till later this afternoon.

    Here's how it looks this morning:


    Photobucket


    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1256 AM CDT MON MAR 09 2009

    VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF N TX NEWD
    ACROSS OK/SERN KS/NWRN AR AND INTO MO/SRN IL...

    ...SYNOPSIS...
    NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
    THIS PERIOD...WHILE WEAKER SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES EJECT NEWD AHEAD
    OF THIS TROUGH IN FAST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.

    AT THE SURFACE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX
    WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NWWD ACROSS N TX AND INTO OK...AS LOW
    PRESSURE REMAINS INVOF SERN CO THROUGH THE DAY AND A WEAK WARM FRONT
    SHIFTS NWD. MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO MIX EWD INTO WRN
    OK/WRN N TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

    AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE ROCKIES YIELDING WEAK
    PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OR
    WAVES SHOULD SHIFT EWD ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. BY THE END
    OF THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
    WILL EXTEND FROM IL WWD ACROSS MO AND INTO THE KS/OK VICINITY.
    Link
    Off topic, but need help explaining anomalous rain movement. If you look at the Philadelphia (Mt. Holly, NJ) NEXRAD radar, at ~8:00 am EDT, you'll see small rain events moving east to west, then one moving south to north. Can't figure out how it can be 90 degrees off other rain movement. Only thing I can think of is that there's a thermal off of the northern end of the Chesapeake and/or Delaware Bay. Any thoughts are welcome.
    Where is the Gonzo nose art?
    He is the one with the cool nose!
    :-)
    Looks like spring has sprung here in north Florida. I don't see and serious waves of cold air heading down here anytime soon.

    How is the Atlantic shaping up? Does the south Atlantic take any ques from the South Pacific and Indian?
    Quoting grayingwindsurfer:
    Off topic, but need help explaining anomalous rain movement. If you look at the Philadelphia (Mt. Holly, NJ) NEXRAD radar, at ~8:00 am EDT, you'll see small rain events moving east to west, then one moving south to north. Can't figure out how it can be 90 degrees off other rain movement. Only thing I can think of is that there's a thermal off of the northern end of the Chesapeake and/or Delaware Bay. Any thoughts are welcome.



    east to west is at the surface and south to north mid level moisture!!
    any of you aussie's tackle any kangaroo's lately???,lol...(there's a news report of an australian man tackling one as it was in his house)....
    Spring forward, daylight savings is back. Carbon copy of yesterday's weather, we'll be nearing 80 and the beach is looking fabulous today, (but with the lack of waves!) Looking ahead this week we'll be stuck in this flat pattern until later in the week when we see our next system move into our window. EC still fun today with light winds and little smaller nuggs. Gulf Temp 61

    this mermaid is waiting for WAVES......but more importantly RAIN -- not happy looking at my state in chili pepper red/chartreuse. Lots of little fires breaking out here and there already
    This is pre market futures.....Looks bad at opening bell....

    Dow -109.00 -1.63% 6,565.00
    NASDAQ -17.50 -1.63% 1,059.00
    S&P -13.00 -1.89% 674.80
    market holding.......
    New Stimulus has significant tax credits for efficient home improvements. Know before you go ! I wonder if a new weather station or weathercam qualifies? lol



    Link
    I don't own,I rent,but It would make it easier to purswade my landlord to put it on the roof and not just on my balcony!!!


    TOP PRIORITY
    TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 33
    Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
    Issued at 10:43pm on Monday the 9th of March 2009

    A Cyclone WARNING is current for offshore islands between Yeppoon and Double
    Island Point. A Cyclone WATCH is current for the mainland coast from Yeppoon to
    Tewantin.

    The Cyclone WARNING for the mainland coast between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay has
    been downgraded to a Cyclone Watch.

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE, is located off the
    Capricornia coast and at 10:00 pm EST was estimated to be 305 kilometres east of
    Yeppoon and 230 kilometres northeast of Bundaberg, moving southeast at 10
    kilometres per hour.

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to maintain a southeast track
    parallel to the coast overnight, before slowing down and beginning to weaken
    during Tuesday.

    Damaging winds are expected to continue to affect offshore islands between
    Yeppoon and Double Island Point [including Heron Island, Lady Elliot Island, and
    Fraser Island] during the next 24 hours.

    Damaging winds are not expected to develop about the mainland coast between
    Yeppoon and Double Island Point during the next 24 hours, however they may
    develop later.

    As the cyclone moves to the southeast, sea levels are expected to be elevated
    above the normal tide along the coastline and large waves may produce minor
    flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by
    this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible
    and be prepared to help their neighbours.

    Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 10:00 pm EST:
    .Centre located near...... 23.2 degrees South 153.7 degrees East
    .Location accuracy........ within 28 kilometres
    .Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 10 kilometres per hour
    .Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
    .Severity category........ 4
    .Central pressure......... 948 hectoPascals


    People on offshore islands between Yeppoon and Double Island Point [including
    Heron Island, Lady Elliot Island, and Fraser Island] should immediately commence
    or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

    People on the mainland coast between Yeppoon and Tewantin should consider what
    action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure
    about the actions to be taken, information is available from your local
    government or local State Emergency Service.

    The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Tuesday 10 March.


    Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish

    Tropical Cyclone Hamish has downgraded to a severe category 4 status and at 4pm Monday had a central pressure of 945hPa, 245km north-northeast of Bundaberg and was heading southeast, parallel to the coast at 17km/h. Maximum winds are 250km/h at the cyclone's centre. Damaging winds are expected to continue affecting exposed coastal and island communities between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay and possibly as far south as Tewantin during the next 24 to 48 hours.

    Within the next 24 hours Hamish is forecast weaken and slow down and possibly turn back within the next 36 hours and get no further south than Lady Elliot Island.

    Hamish is now unlikely to make landfall.

    A warning is current for areas between Yeppoon and Hervey Bay.
    A watch is current between Hervey Bay and Tewantin.
    Issued Monday 18:08 EDT



    I wonder which will come fruition, this one or the BOM one.
    Cheers AussieStorm
    AAAAAAAARRRRRRRRGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    hurricanexpert~ please refure to the rules of the road for this blog.. rules 8-10 deal with your question.
    Quoting Skyepony:
    hurricanexpert~ please refure to the rules of the road for this blog.. rules 8-10 deal with your question.
    I dont understand why people think I'm spamming! I'm only trying to get people to join my site. I thought spamming was posting the same thing a million times. I asked Mr. Masters one time. If he said no. I would've left it alone.
    Good Afternoon......Temps starting to creep up towards 80 this afternoon in the Florida Big Bend Region; looks like we may "skip" Spring again (except for changing the clocks on Sat eve) and move into Summer pretty quickly...Lol
    Same down here in Bradenton. We don't even get a wind chill reading, just heat index. That just does not seem fair. Pittsburgh gets one.

    Bradenton Florida
    Updated: 0 sec ago
    80.1 °F
    Clear
    Humidity: 21%
    Dew Point: 37 °F
    Wind: 4.0 mphfrom the WSW
    Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
    Pressure: 30.27 in (Steady)
    Heat Index: 79 °F
    Visibility: 10.0 miles
    UV: 9 out of 16
    Clouds: Clear -
    (Above Ground Level)
    Elevation: 0 ft

    Pittsburgh Pa

    Updated: 1 min 56 sec ago
    39.0 °F
    Overcast
    Windchill: 39 °F
    Humidity: 67%
    Dew Point: 29 °F
    Wind: Calm
    Wind Gust: 0.6 mph
    Pressure: 30.18 in (Rising)
    Visibility: 10.0 miles
    UV: 2 out of 16
    Clouds: Overcast 2200 ft
    (Above Ground Level)
    Elevation: 1053 ft

    From WU



    Quoting weathermanwannabe:
    Good Afternoon......Temps starting to creep up towards 80 this afternoon in the Florida Big Bend Region; looks like we may "skip" Spring again (except for changing the clocks on Sat eve) and move into Summer pretty quickly...Lol
    Yep, after this last shot of cold air next weekend, It's gonna go from winter/spring to dead summer.
    Quoting HurricaneExpert:
    Yep, after this last shot of cold air next weekend, It's gonna go from winter/spring to dead summer.


    Yep....Time to start cleaning off the lawn mower and getting ready to re-seed/re-sod in the yard in the next few weeks, and get my lawn nicely re-established, before the July/August rains and H-season...Got started a little late last year and Tropical Storm Fay basically washed everything away when Tallahassee got about 12 inches of rain.....
    Quoting weathermanwannabe:


    Yep....Time to start cleaning off the lawn mower and getting ready to re-seed/re-sod in the yard in the next few weeks, and get my lawn nicely re-established, before the July/August rains and H-season...Got started a little late last year and Tropical Storm Fay basically washed everything away when Tallahassee got about 12 inches of rain.....
    I was over there when fay hit. That was a bad storm to be a tropical storm. That was one of the few time I've seen a T.S. with an established eye.
    Quoting kladdsimon:
    I was over there when fay hit. That was a bad storm to be a tropical storm. That was one of the few time I've seen a T.S. with an established eye.


    Not to mention a tropical system that intensified over land...
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fay_Landfall_FL_up_to_0045.gif
    Lets not wish anything like Fay for Florida this coming season.....It was a flooding nightmare for most of Florida while it criss-crossed the State for about 6 days....I'll take a fast moving Cat 1 any day over a slow moving soaker like Fay.....
    On the first day of U.S. Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Shaun Donovan and U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Janet Napolitano's listening tour throughout New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, the secretaries announced hundreds of millions of dollars in funding to Louisiana to stimulate long-term recovery in the wake of last year's devastating hurricane season and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.



    COURT NOTEBOOK: Kids left alone during Tropical Storm, mom goes to prison
    Naples Daily News - 2 hrs 42 mins ago

    A 35-year-old Immokalee woman who left her two young children alone in her garbage-strewn trailer without food or water during Tropical Storm Fay has been sent to prison for 2 3/4 years. Collier Circuit Judge Frank Baker imposed the term after Christina Flores pleaded no contest to two counts of child neglect involving her daughters, ages 3 and 11. Flores faced up to five years for each ...




    Quoting HurricaneExpert:
    I dont understand why people think I'm spamming! I'm only trying to get people to join my site. I thought spamming was posting the same thing a million times. I asked Mr. Masters one time. If he said no. I would've left it alone.


    I don't understand why you think "we the people" wrote the rules of the road & not Dr Masters. Or that we the people wrote the terms of agreement for this site & defined spam & not the creaters of the site including Dr Masters.

    I was just trying to answer your question. If you want a direct answer from Dr Masters e-mail him.
    Just was told we have some twisters in the mid-west. Any info on that ? I did not see anything on this site.
    There is 1 hail cell headed in the general direction of STL. SPC has nothing for the last 3 hours. Under tornados up top there's that last out break..Check out the tornado pic in the VIP of the WU photos..wow. More is expected later today, looks like it is just beginning.
    NEW OUTLOOK POSTED:
    South Florida StormWatch
    Quoting Skyepony:
    There is 1 hail cell headed in the general direction of STL. SPC has nothing for the last 3 hours. Under tornados up top there's that last out break..Check out the tornado pic in the VIP of the WU photos..wow. More is expected later today, looks like it is just beginning.


    Thank you, that pic is intense. Be well
    Quoting Ossqss:
    Just was told we have some twisters in the mid-west. Any info on that ? I did not see anything on this site.

    I'm working in central Missouri and we just had torrential rain and lots of thunder - our info is that there is a possibility of tornados but not reports as yet.



    Click HD
    India Meteorological Department

    Chief Meteorologist Forecast (0900z 09Mar)
    ====================================
    Morning’s low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining Sri Lanka persists.

    The system may become well marked during next 24 hours. Under its influence, scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershowers are likely over southern peninsular India during next 48 days.

    High Sea Forecast Bulletin (1800z 09Mar)
    =====================================
    The low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka persists.

    Associated cirulation now extends up t0 2.1 km ASL. System is likely to become more marked.
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
    Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTY-FIVE
    SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 4 (11U)
    4:50 AM EST March 10 2009
    ==============================

    At 4:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Four [946 hPa] located at 23.7S 154.1E or located off the Capricornia coast was estimated to be 290 kms east of Gladstone and 140 kms northeast of Sandy Cape has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southeast at 6 knots.

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to slow down and weaken during today. It is then forecast to change direction on Wednesday morning and begin to move west towards the coast as a weaker cyclone.

    Damaging winds are expected to continue to affect the northern part of Fraser Island during the next 24 hours.

    Damaging winds are not expected to develop about the mainland coast between Yeppoon and Tewantin or other offshore islands south of Yeppoon during the next 24 hours, however they may develop later.

    Large waves generated by the cyclone may produce elevated sea levels and minor flooding along the foreshore south of Sandy Cape. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

    Tropical Cyclone Warnings
    ======================
    A Cyclone WARNING is current for northern parts of Fraser Island.

    A Cyclone WATCH is current for the mainland coast from Yeppoon to Tewantin

    The cyclone warning for other offshore islands south of Yeppoon [including Heron and Lady Elliot Islands] has been downgraded to a cyclone WATCH.

    TC Technical Bulletin
    =================

    Hurricane Force Winds
    ---------------------
    40 NM from the center

    Storm Force Winds
    ------------------
    75 NM Northeast Quadrant
    75 NM Southeast Quadrant
    65 NM Southwest Quadrant
    65 NM Northwest Quadrant

    Gale Force Winds
    --------------
    120 NM from the center

    Forecast and Intensity
    -----------------------
    12 HRS: 24.1S 154.6E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
    24 HRS: 23.9S 154.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
    48 HRS: 23.3S 154.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
    72 HRS: 23.1S 152.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

    Remarks:
    The effects of increasing NW shear are becoming evident on satellite images as a
    cirrus outlfow boundary contracting towards the centre of the system. However vigorous convection is still maintained around the eyewall. DT 6.0 based on eye pattern with white surround and light grey eye.

    Expect slow movement and a change in motion generally towards the west in the next 24 to 48 hours.
    The models are all over the place with Hammish. The CMC and NOGAPS wanna bring it down south. The UKMET wants to take it inland. The GFS wants it to loop back up to the north. Complex steering at work here.
    Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam

    Mirror Site



    Current Home weather station data.
    Quoting Orcasystems:
    Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam

    Mirror Site



    Current Home weather station data.


    Looks Great Mr. Orca ! Good job.
    Quoting Drakoen:
    The models are all over the place with Hammish. The CMC and NOGAPS wanna bring it down south. The UKMET wants to take it inland. The GFS wants it to loop back up to the north. Complex steering at work here.


    More like HamFay
    Quoting futuremet:


    More like HamFay


    LMAO!
    Could (need) some rain down here!

    International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

    Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015:
    Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters (HFA)

    Report of the Conference (includes Hyogo Framework)
    A/CONF.206/6 - 16 March 2005



    A. Challenges posed by disasters

    1. Disaster loss is on the rise with grave consequences for the survival, dignity and livelihood of individuals, particularly the poor, and hard-won development gains. Disaster risk is increasingly of global concern and its impact and actions in one region can have an impact on risks in another, and vice versa. This, compounded by increasing vulnerabilities related to changing demographic, technological and socio-economic conditions, unplanned urbanization, development within high-risk zones, under-development, environmental degradation, climate variability, climate change, geological hazards, competition for scarce resources, and the impact of epidemics such as HIV/AIDS, points to a future where disasters could increasingly threaten the world’s economy, and its population and the sustainable development of developing countries. In the past two decades, on average more than 200 million people have been affected every year by disasters.

    2. Disaster risk arises when hazards interact with physical, social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities. Events of hydrometeorological origin constitute the large majority of disasters. Despite the growing understanding and acceptance of the importance of disaster risk reduction and increased disaster response capacities, disasters and in particular the management and reduction of risk continue to pose a global challenge.

    3. There is now international acknowledgement that efforts to reduce disaster risks must be systematically integrated into policies, plans and programmes for sustainable development and poverty reduction, and supported through bilateral, regional and international cooperation, including partnerships. Sustainable development, poverty reduction, good governance and disaster risk reduction are mutually supportive objectives, and in order to meet the challenges ahead, accelerated efforts must be made to build the necessary capacities at the community and national levels to manage and reduce risk. Such an approach is to be recognized as an important element for the achievement of internationally agreed development goals, including those contained in the Millennium Declaration.
    Quoting Drakoen:
    Could (need) some rain down here!


    Unfortunately the rain this time of year can come with some lightning and we don't want that part. Tinder box central, right now, down here.
    Photobucket

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 52
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    350 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2009

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    SOUTHEAST KANSAS
    CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

    EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
    1000 PM CDT.

    TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
    GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
    AREAS.

    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
    MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
    FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR
    A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
    OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

    REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
    TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

    DISCUSSION...CU/TCU FIELD CONTINUES TO GROW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
    OK...WHILE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES INTO SOUTHEAST KS. LEADING EDGE OF
    STRONGER FORCING IS MOVING THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY
    RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SOON OVER WESTERN OK.
    THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS WATCH AREA DURING THE LATE
    AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
    PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.
    TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0052
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0352 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2009

    WT 0052
    PROBABILITY TABLE:
    PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60%
    PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
    PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 60%
    PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
    PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 60%
    PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
    PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 80%

    &&
    ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
    MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0
    MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
    MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450
    MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040
    PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO
    Latest Video From Futuremet Productions

    "Planetary Scale Baroclinity Part 2"



    Click the HD button for high definition quality

    CONVECTIVE CELLS

    Air converges (or any place that is heated more than anywhere else during the year) at the equator, there it rises due to the instability and condenses at higher altitudes. When the air reaches the level of thermal equilibrium, it is dry, and will then begin to diverge and move toward both sides of the equator. When it reaches near 30 degrees north or south, it will sink creating a stable air mass. This is why the primary high pressure systems such as the Bermuda high, and the Azores high are located near subtropical regions. Further, if you look at global water vapor imagery, you will notice that that most of the time the air near the subtropical regions in both hemispheres are drier than anywhere else. Now as the air parcels sink, they will warm adiabatically; some will flow back toward the equator and some will continue to flow toward the poles. Now, since the air that is moving toward the poles is adiabatically warmed, it will start to acquire positive buoyancy and rise again, and it is commonly known as the Ferrel Cell. Meanwhile, air is sinking incessantly at the poles, and this area of sinking air is commonly known as the polar high. So, what%u2019s next? The sinking from the poles will then flow southward and warm adiabatically. As it continues to move southward, it will eventually meet with another area of rising air (Ferrel Cell) that is moving northward. Once both of air masses meet, they will converge, just like what happened at the ITCZ.

    So you should be asking...How does these events relate to atmospheric baroclinity?
    Well think about it%u2026The temperature and pressure gradients within the earth is what helps these regions of %u201Ckey convergence%u201D to form. If the earth was flat, there would be no Hadley, polar, and Ferrell Cell. In fact, mid-latitude cyclones would not exist, since there would only be one air mass. Only mesoscale baroclinity would remain.


    TOP PRIORITY
    TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 36

    Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
    Issued at 7:47am on Tuesday the 10th of March 2009

    A Cyclone WARNING is current for northern parts of Fraser Island. A Cyclone
    WATCH is current for the mainland coast and offshore islands from Yeppoon to
    Tewantin [including Heron Island and Lady Elliot Island].

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE, is located off the
    Capricornia coast and at 7:00 am EST was estimated to be 320 kilometres east of
    Gladstone and 140 kilometres northeast of Sandy Cape, moving southeast at 11
    kilometres per hour.

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to slow down and weaken during today.
    It is then forecast to change direction during Wednesday and move west towards
    the coast as a weaker cyclone.


    Damaging winds are expected to continue to affect the northern part of Fraser
    Island during the next few hours.

    Damaging winds are not expected to develop about the mainland coast and offshore
    islands between Yeppoon and Tewantin during the next 24 hours, however they may
    develop later.

    Large waves generated by the cyclone may produce elevated sea levels and minor
    flooding along the foreshore south of Sandy Cape. People living in areas likely
    to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property
    as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

    Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish at 7:00 am EST:
    .Centre located near...... 24.0 degrees South 154.4 degrees East
    .Location accuracy........ within 19 kilometres
    .Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 11 kilometres per hour
    .Wind gusts near centre... 230 kilometres per hour
    .Severity category........ 4
    .Central pressure......... 950 hectoPascals


    People on the northern part of Fraser Island should stay calm and remain in a
    secure shelter while the damaging winds continue.

    People on the mainland coast between Yeppoon and Tewantin should consider what
    action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure
    about the actions to be taken, information is available from your local
    government or local State Emergency Service.

    The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Tuesday 10 March.
    Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam

    Mirror Site

    Current Home weather station data.
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
    Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTY-SIX
    SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 4 (11U)
    7:50 AM EST March 10 2009
    ==============================

    At 7:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Four [950 hPa] located at 24.0S 154.4E or located off the Capricornia coast and 320 kms east of Gladstone and 140 kms northeast of Sandy Cape has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 6 knots.

    ----
    at least its weakening.

    Still the strangest track forecast comparing it to JTWC's
    Lady Elliot Island, Australia (Airport)


    Updated: 1 hr 7 min 43 sec ago
    Temperature: 78 °F
    Humidity: 87%
    Dew Point: 75 °F
    Wind: 21 mph from the South
    Wind Gust: -
    Pressure: 29.75 in
    Elevation: 13 ft

    So where is Hamish going? is gong to loop and hit Australia or squiggle and hit Fiji or just continue paralleling the coast?
    I am sooooo parched -- I do not like my state wearing chili pepper red with chartreuse accents......
    SWFL-Surf -- NOT!
    Small lines in the shin high range this morning maybe loggable at best. Westside to remain quiet this week with not much on the horizon in the way of surf. Sunny, warmer conditions will be the call right up into the weekend, with a slight chance of showers on Sunday. Have a productive week. Gulf Temp 63

    only good news the Gulf is warming and soon -- no more neoprene
    Slow night..a brief musical interlude..

    Good evening all

    Just stopping by to say hello.

    Still the quiet off season but not long until June. Temps have been unseasonably cool in the NW Caribbean since last Nov and it will be interesting to see if this translates into a season with below normal activity or not
    Quoting kmanislander:
    Good evening all

    Just stopping by to say hello.

    Still the quiet off season but not long until June. Temps have been unseasonably cool in the NW Caribbean since last Nov and it will be interesting to see if this translates into a season with below normal activity or not
    Nice to see you Kman....it has been a long time. Things are different since you've been here and lots of offshoot blogs to pass time until it gets active again (we hope it doesn't).
    Hope it will be a slow season kman...but us in so. fla. need the rain...really sad when you hope for a tropical event to bring you the rain you so desperately need.
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
    Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THIRTY-SEVEN
    SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 3 (11U)
    10:50 AM EST March 10 2009
    ==============================

    At 10:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category THREE [965 hPa] located at 24.2S 154.8E or off Fraser Island and 365 kms east of Gladstone and 165 kms east northeast of Sandy Cape has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southeast at 5 knots.

    Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to slow down and gradually weaken.

    A separate Severe Weather Warning has been issued for Damaging Winds, Abnormally

    High Tides and Dangerous Surf for coastal and island communities between Sandy Cape and Coolangatta. People living in areas likely to be affected by these conditions should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

    Tropical Cyclone Warnings
    ======================
    The Cyclone WATCH from Yeppoon to Tewantin has been cancelled.

    The Cyclone WARNING for northern parts of Fraser Island has been cancelled.


    TC Technical Bulletin
    =================

    Hurricane Force Winds
    ---------------------
    40 NM from the center

    Storm Force Winds
    ------------------
    55 NM Northeast Quadrant
    70 NM Southeast Quadrant
    55 NM Southwest Quadrant
    50 NM Northwest Quadrant

    Gale Force Winds
    --------------
    120 NM from the center

    Forecast and Intensity
    -----------------------
    12 HRS: 24.5S 155.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
    24 HRS: 24.2S 155.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
    48 HRS: 23.3S 155.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
    72 HRS: 23.0S 153.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

    Remarks:
    DT based on eye pattern with VIS. MET 5.5 adjusted to 5.0 based on PT. Final T 5.0 held CI 5.5 based on rules.

    The cyclone is expected to weaken as it becomes more sheared.

    ---
    no more warnings for the Eastern coast of Australia.
    Hi Conchygirl

    True, I have been away for a few months but I have looked in on the blog from time to time.

    We have had some 68 degree days here even into late Feb and early March. One cold front after the other.

    I guess the topic of the day will soon be " climate change " instead of Global warming LOL
    Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
    Hope it will be a slow season kman...but us in so. fla. need the rain...really sad when you hope for a tropical event to bring you the rain you so desperately need.


    Yeah, we need the rain here too. My mango tree has put out tons of shoots and water is the key to a good crop. Probably no rain until late April/ early May
    Hey kman long time no see
    Well I am going to run off for now. Watching the series " Rome ". Great off season entertainment !!

    Catch up with you all soon
    Quoting hahaguy:
    Hey kman long time no see


    Been resting since last October LMAO

    Starting to brush up on my forecasting skills !!
    All4Hurricanes



    Fiji is still far east of Hamish.. though New Caledonia isn't..
    Joint Typhoon Warning Center

    An area of convection 99P located at 18.7S 156.4W or 415 NM west of Tahiti. Recent animated multispectral imagery shows a well defined low level circulation center with formative convective banding wrapping into the center. This low level circulation center is confirmed by a 1715z Quikscat pass showing winds of 25-30 knots near the center. An anticyclone aloft and weak upper level troughing to the southeast of the disturbance, are providing ample outflow for development. This system lies in a region o weak to moderate vertical wind shear, warm sea surface tempertures and significant ocean heat content.

    Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1001 MB. Due to the favorable surface condition as well as good condition aloft, the potential for the disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is GOOD.

    ---
    Interesting.. I don't think Fiji covers naming of cyclone this far east..
    oh nevermind Area of Responsibility stretches as far east to 120W.
    Quoting kmanislander:
    Hi Conchygirl

    True, I have been away for a few months but I have looked in on the blog from time to time.

    We have had some 68 degree days here even into late Feb and early March. One cold front after the other.

    I guess the topic of the day will soon be " climate change " instead of Global warming LOL
    or climate shift
    any one no what the set up with this year hurricane season will be like
    303 Futuremet. How does air moving southward from the poles warm adiabatically? Doesn't it warm because of modification due to InSolation?
    Clear skies Haulers ready to 5-6 75-95, 10-4.




    Whats that chop in Biscayne Bay?
    cloudsat of the east side of Hamish
    wow is that that Austailian Typ?
    Instead of a train from LA to Vegas they should have fabricated better weather satellites.

    El Nino?
    The mid atlantic Gale is down to 1000mb. Tonight's quikscat.
    What? There's a train? Maybe~ probibly see neutral 1st.
    Quoting kmanislander:
    Good evening all

    Just stopping by to say hello.

    Still the quiet off season but not long until June. Temps have been unseasonably cool in the NW Caribbean since last Nov and it will be interesting to see if this translates into a season with below normal activity or not


    Isn't that predicted by climate change? Winters will be colder and summers will be warmer? Everything will be more extreme?
    Greeted by 58 degrees- I Love it -- Gulf of Mexico is warming - 63 degrees -- A Full Moon and Spring is in the Air!! Florida is desperately seeking rain....Texas too...-- after watching all the Aussie Fire Videos -- I'm not liking this Dust Bowl atmosphere
    nice 3 ft longboardd waves peeling in water temp is 67 f. e cent fl. have a happy weather day
    Good morning all and June will soon be here....Hope all is well with everyone and looking forward to an interesting storm season.....well,,,maybe not all that interesting!
    340. IKE
    82 days....
    17 hours....
    10 minutes and it starts...........
    morning fellow wunderbloggers!!!,finally got my new laptop,my old ones usb ports were busted,NOW I can post cool weather pics,also expecting my new PWS today and will have it set up in a week or two,as I'll be reporting from NYC thru the weekend!!!!..and looking for some snow next sunday night????
    Good morning everyone. Did anyone see the ice chunks blown out of the river into people's yards and houses on tv this morning! That is a really different kind of ice hazard. Never saw anything like it.
    Looked like real fun long board waves in Stuart, Fl yesterday.
    Quoting ftpiercecane:
    Looked like real fun long board waves in Stuart, Fl yesterday.


    OUCH!!!!!!It's been soo long since I've caught a lovely wave -- I'm feeling like a beached mermaid -- heck I AM A BEACHED MERMAID
    Post 341, Still -- if you want to go to NYC for snow - have a blast.... just keep the snow & cold away from our sandbox down here............
    319W48th - that'd be the old party pad..Sorry Still I'm not there anymore......
    Quoting leftovers:
    nice 3 ft longboardd waves peeling in water temp is 67 f. e cent fl. have a happy weather day
    .....................

    WAVES PEELING IN WATER TEMP OF 67 DEGREES.......groan..........I've got CRAVE WAVE!

    key word: peeling
    Quoting IKE:
    82 days....
    17 hours....
    10 minutes and it starts...........


    Hey Ike........Can't wait for the first Invest and it's only March?....Lol
    Summary: Cooler temperatures persist in the equatorial Pacific. The warming exhibited at the surface in the eastern to central equatorial Pacific Ocean during January has not been sustained into February, with current sea surface temperatures in the far-eastern Pacific remaining on the cool side of neutral. Trade winds, which had weakened during January, are now stronger than normal in the western half of the basin, though remain weaker in the east. Likewise, the SOI shows a stronger positive value, with a 30-day (February 16) value of +14.

    Below the surface, both the western and eastern areas of the basin have warmed over the past three weeks, whilst temperatures in the central Pacific have cooled slightly over the same period. Model outlooks continue to suggest that the cooler sea surface conditions in the Pacific may persist only briefly into autumn 2009. The most likely scenario is for the central and eastern Pacific to warm further over the coming months and to remain neutral.


    Looks like Enso Neutral conditions for H-Season this year so we'll have to wait and see (as we do every year) what the ultimate outcome will be...........
    Laptop crashed and burned.. using SWMBO'eds .... I hate sharing :(
    Quoting Orcasystems:
    Laptop crashed and burned.. using SWMBO'eds .... I hate sharing :(


    Dude, she is the one sharing w/YOU ...LOL
    Heard you got SNOW -- no need to share that!
    Quoting surfmom:


    Dude, she is the one sharing w/YOU ...LOL
    Heard you got SNOW -- no need to share that!


    We both have our own....
    But.. the company owns both... so I guess.. you could say... I gave her one. I doubt she would agree with that.. and would probably agree with your statement... and yes.. we have snow :(

    352. GBlet
    Orca, what does SWMBO stand for? I do know you are referring to your wife, correct?
    Quoting GBlet:
    Orca, what does SWMBO stand for? I do know you are referring to your wife, correct?


    She Who Must Be Obeyed (but seldom is)
    Yup, the wife of 30 years.
    354. GBlet
    JEEZ, just about sprayed my puter with coffee! Orca, you are too funny. Checked out the critter cam, too cool. Will have to try getting my cam going.
    Quoting GBlet:
    JEEZ, just about sprayed my puter with coffee! Orca, you are too funny. Checked out the critter cam, too cool. Will have to try getting my cam going.


    maybe that's why mine died.. I do that a lot on here. Critter cam is actually pretty cheap... $139 Canadian for that one.. IP addressable also.

    Where's all the Dow Doubter's Today?

    LOL

    Dow Jones Industrials | Quotes Update report Help 6,796.670 +249.620+3.81%Vol: 162,994,283

    357. GBlet
    I've got a set of X10 cams we bought about 3 yrs ago for 169.00. They are wireless and do a pretty good job for the price. Came with a remote contolled base for turning cam and to switch from one cam to the other. No night vision though.
    Patrap - still way, way down.

    Good to see the bump on the Citi news, but have to see how it closes. But still 4% after weeks and weeks of that same movement in the other direction does not a bull make. ;)

    If it gets back up to 8K, then it can be considered back on track.

    Hopefully.

    No one WANTS to see it in the toilet... or do they? ;)
    Quoting Patrap:
    Where's all the Dow Doubter's Today?

    LOL

    Dow Jones Industrials | Quotes Update report Help 6,796.670 +249.620+3.81%Vol: 162,994,283



    The DOW is a forward looking instrument. Obviously, there is a mirage in the way. Don't jinx it. We only need 19%-25% more to make up the losses since Jan 1.
    Im a Optimist.
    I have to be.
    Im from NOLA..

    .."the place where he, was born and raised"..