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NOAA Gins Up Major El Niño Field Campaign: Hurricane Pali Spins Southwest of Hawaii

By: Bob Henson 2:24 PM GMT on January 12, 2016

Scientists at NOAA will be putting the well-predicted “super” El Niño of 2015-16 under a mammoth microscope over the next three months. With just enough time to line up some big observing platforms--plus a lot of other things going right--NOAA/ESRL’s Physical Sciences Division (PSD) has managed to pull together a major field effort that will analyze the mechanics of this El Niño in truly unprecedented detail.

“We’re trying to plan a field campaign in three months that would normally take two to three years,” Ryan Spackman told me in a phone chat. Spackman, an ESRL-based program manager with Science and Technology Corporation, is working with ESRL senior scientist Randy Dole to oversee the NOAA El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign. “There are still some loose ends, but there are no show-stoppers at this point,” Spackman said. “Things are converging very quickly--which, frankly, they need to be.”


Figure 1. Sea-surface height as inferred by by NASA satellites during the current El Niño (December 27, 2015, at left, from Jason-2) and at a comparable point during the last “super” El Niño (December 28, 1997, at right, from TOPEX/Poseidon). Warmer temperatures in the upper ocean result in higher sea-surface heights, as the seawater expands. In 1997, the above-average sea surface height was generally more intense and peaked in November. In 2015, the area of high sea levels was less pronounced but considerably broader. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.

Sonde science: Gathering data on El Niño where it matters most
The crucial science question driving this field campaign is exactly how the upward-flowing energy across the El Niño region of the eastern tropical Pacific affects the surrounding atmosphere. It’s well known that the warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with El Niño help displace showers and thunderstorms (convection) much further east than they normally roam, closer to Peru than their usual home near Indonesia. The rising motion in those storms sets off a chain of events that propagate outward for thousands of miles. Toward the top of the troposphere, or at roughly 10-15 km (6-9 miles) above the El Niño region, the updrafts of convective towers force high-altitude air to flow outward, just as it would from a hurricane.

“It’s that diverging air that has an impact on the subtropical jet, extending it and enhancing it,” said Spackman. In turn, the strengthened subtropical jet has impacts on weather downstream at mid-latitudes, including enhanced winter rainfall from California all the way to Florida. “We can draw these links, but we don’t have many observations from the El Niño region, and our weather prediction models don’t include all the underlying physics they need to model that process,” Spackman said. Not surprisingly, a number of studies have pointed to the El Niño region as being a key source of larger-scale model uncertainty during El Niño episodes.

To get a handle on what’s going on this winter, a vast number of atmospheric profiles--potentially more than 1000, which is a hefty number indeed for such a project--will be collected in two ways:
--radiosondes (balloon-borne instrument packages launched from ship or shore)
--dropsondes (parachute-borne instrument packages deposited from aircraft)

Radiosondes have been a mainstay of routine weather observing since the 1930s. Despite the immense value of satellites, there is still no substitute for the data that a radiosonde or dropsonde can gather. Wind data, in particular, are often difficult for satellites to obtain with precision, especially in the presence of multiple cloud layers. The sonde-derived profiles this winter will be collected over a domain spanning thousands of miles, but the focal point, as one might expect, is the area of unusual oceanic warmth now being produced by El Niño over the central and eastern tropical Pacific.


Figure 2. Left: NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV jet has flown on hurricane and winter-storm reconnaissance missions since 1996. Image credit: NOAA. Right: A view of NASA's Global Hawk unmanned aircraft from one of its wings. Image credit: NASA.

Two aircraft, a ship, and an island
The first platform for the project is NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV hurricane-hunter aircraft (see Figure 2 above). The high-flying Gulfstream-IV is typically used to monitor the atmosphere around hurricanes, so it’s an ideal tool for sampling how the El Niño convection is affecting the surrounding air at high altitudes. Up to 20 G-IV missions will be conducted between January 19 and March 3 from a home base at Honolulu International Airport, with as many as 30 dropsondes to be deployed per mission. “We’ll be transiting quite a bit to get to the intertropical convergence zone near the equator,” says Spackman. “Probably half of each flight will be just getting there.”

The Niño3.4 region is the “meat of where we’re going to operate--nominally from the dateline to about 130°W.  It’s going to be a stretch to get very far to the west and the east, so we expect a couple of deployments out of Tahiti or perhaps American Samoa.” This will allow for a broader study area, including the Niño4 region further west, where this year’s El Niño has been particularly strong. Along with the dropsondes, the G-IV’s tail-mounted Doppler radar will be invaluable for gathering wind data, said Spackman.

Figure 3. Areas of the equatorial Pacific that are monitored to produce weekly, monthly, and seasonal estimates of the evolution of El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña. Variations in the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (center) are the most common index of El Niño strength. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


The relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season of 2015 turned out to be a boon for El Niño research, as it left open many potential flight hours for a second platform (see Figure 2 above): NASA’s Global Hawk unmanned aerial system (UAS), based at NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (Edwards Air Force Base, California). The El Niño sampling will piggyback onto the Global Hawk’s previously planned missions for an activity called SHOUT: Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology. The idea behind SHOUT is to gather focused data from mid-latitude and subtropical regions identified as crucial to an unfolding weather scenario (e.g., a developing storm far out in the Pacific) in order to improve forecasts over the United States several days later. “We’re hoping we can devise flight strategies where we coordinate the G-IV flights at lower latitudes with what SHOUT is doing at higher latitudes,” Spackman said.

The El Niño project will be able to draw on as many as six 24-hour flights during three weeks in February. Each flight will carry and deploy up to 75 dropsondes, with the flights operated remotely from NASA/Armstrong and the sondes launched with a system developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.


Figure 4. NOAA Ship Ronald H. Brown, a research vessel named in honor of the late U.S. Secretary of Commerce, has been carrying out missions around the world since 1997. Here, two workers from the Ron Brown examine a buoy in the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array (left). Image credit: NOAA, courtesy Oak Ridge National Laboratory.


Another platform--NOAA’s Ronald H. Brown research vessel (Figure 4, above) is part of the project thanks to another happy coincidence. The Ron Brown was already scheduled to be plying the eastern tropical Pacific from mid-February to mid-March to carry out maintenance on the dozens of buoys that monitor the atmosphere and ocean across the region (among other things, helping to detect El Niño itself). For the new field project, two PSD staff will launch 6 to 8 radiosondes each day, around the clock, from aboard the ship as it hops from buoy to buoy along a zigzagging path from Hawaii to California.

There’s also Kiritimati (also known as Christmas Island), one of the Line Islands. Routine radiosonde launches from this remote site were discontinued years ago, but it’s in a prime location for this project: at 2°N, due south of Hawaii and near the heart of the sea-surface warming of El Niño. Two radiosondes a day will be launched from the island from January 23 to March 28.


Figure 5. A view of Kiritimati from the International Space Station. The world’s largest coral atoll by land area, Kiritimati covers about 150 square miles, with a population of around 5,000. Image credit: NASA/Wikimedia Commons.

Along with the four platforms above, a 3-centimeter-wavelength radar will be deployed in the south San Francisco Bay area. It will help fill a gap in the existing national network of Doppler radars, thus leading to more accurate rainfall estimates for the central California coast.

As it compiles an irreplaceable trove of data for research, ESRL will also feed many of those observations into the network of real-time data used by numerical forecast models around the world. The enhanced data will thus help improve the day-to-day forecasts produced this winter by NOAA, ECMWF, and other leading centers (although the Global Hawk data are not yet certified for operational use by NOAA). "In many ways, this is a ripe playground for the SHOUT program," Spackman said. ”Their goal is to demonstrate that targeted observations have an impact on select high-impact forecast metrics such as precipitation."


Figure 6. A cross section of the dominant circulation cells affecting the Northern Hemisphere, going from north to south as you move from left to right. The showers and thunderstorms (convection) depicted at right shift from the western Pacific closer to the Americas during El Niño, which alters the downstream effects on the subtropical jet stream. Image credit: CMMAP/Colorado State University.

More on the project from Randy Dole
I asked ESRL’s Randy Dole to weigh in on how ESRL was able to pull together such an ambitious field project on short notice, and what the effort might tell us about how El Niño works.

BH: How exactly do the warm equatorial SSTs associated with El Niño act to strengthen the subtropical jet?  Is it simply due to a strengthening of the Hadley circulation, or are there additional processes going on as well? 

RD: “There are multiple factors, but you've got the primary one. Tropical convection usually focuses near the warmest waters, which are shifted eastward in El Niño years. Poleward flow diverging from near the top of the convection turns eastward when viewed in the earth's frame of reference (i.e.,through the Coriolis force). Eastward turning occurs in both hemispheres, so unusually strong subtropical westerly jet streams occur in both Northern and Southern hemispheres related to El Niño. Because El Niño-related convective enhancement occurs mainly in the central to eastern tropical Pacific, the jet strengthening is typically seen over the central and eastern subtropical Pacific.”

BH: How does this year’s campaign compare to what happened during the last “super” El Niño?

RD: ”In 1997-98 there was no rapid rapid response field campaign over the tropical Pacific, although one might have been possible. To be sure, there were flights for the NORPEX field campaign, but these were primarily conducted to perform targeted observations in the extratropical northeast North Pacific aiming at improving short-term forecasts. Spinning up a rapid response field campaign, as opposed to tweaking a campaign that was already planned, requires many factors, including the ability to anticipate such an event and its potential impacts. Typically, planning and developing logistical support for a campaign of the scale we plan to conduct takes 2-3 years, rather than a few months. So it's a daunting challenge, and hard to know whether those around in 1998 even conceived such a thing. Since 1998 the NASA Global Hawk has become available, so that adds to a capability that would not have existed in 1998. But in the end, in addition to an event driver, it takes many factors to come together: the will, hard work, and support from leadership to shift out of business-as-usual, the default option. The closest analogy we could come up with in NOAA was the agency's Deepwater Horizon response, but that was in reaction to a disaster, rather than being proactive, as we are trying to be here.”


Figure 7. The domain for the NOAA El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign atop a map of recent sea-surface temperatures (redder colors indicate warmer temperatures relative to the seasonal average). Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


BH: What's an example of a burning-curiosity question for you that you hope can be answered through these various observations?

RD: ”First, I would like to resolve how well our current weather and climate models do in representing the tropical atmospheric response to a major El Niño. In the absence of direct observations, it's difficult to be sure. My strong suspicion is that the models have major errors and, if so, those errors will be apparent in our observations. As this is the first link in the chain from El Niño to West Coast rainfall, knowing how well our models simulate this link is critical.

“Second, if there are significant tropical errors, how important are they for NOAA forecasts, and over what time scale? The observations may not answer that question directly, but they will point us in the direction of what we will need to do to find out, and what the implications will be for NOAA's future observing and forecast modeling systems. The challenges are common to weather and climate models, as tropical errors will influence everything from short-term predictions to longer-term climate change projections.

“Third, at heart I simply want to understand how the system works. Roughly, from an atmospheric perspective we might consider that El Niño as turning up a "knob" on ocean conditions, and when the knob is turned to very high heavy winter rainfall is much more likely in California.  But what are the most important factors determining this relationship?  It's easy to conjecture, but I would like to see these observations bring us closer to providing definitive answers. In the long run that will help us identify what will be needed to improve predictions of variables that matter to the public and decision-makers.”

Organizers of the NOAA El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign will provide an overview of the field campaign and related partnerships at this week’s 96th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society in New Orleans (7:00 - 8:30 pm Tuesday, room 243 of the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center). You can follow news about the project at the dedicated ESRL website.


Figure 8. Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Pali as of 1330Z (8:30 am EST) Tuesday, January 12, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 9. MODIS visible satellite image of Hurricane Pali taken at 5:30 pm EST January 11, 2016. At the time, Pali was intensifying into a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Strange times in the tropics: Hurricane Pali in the Central Pacific; possible subtropical storm in the North Atlantic
It’s not entirely out of the question that a tropical cyclone will be churning over or just west of the Central Pacific the field campaign kicks off next week. Late Monday night, Hurricane Pali became the earliest hurricane on record for both the Central and Northeast Pacific (the region between the International Date Line and the Americas), beating 1992’s Ekeka, which became a hurricane on January 30. Still packing winds of 85 mph early Tuesday morning, Pali was located unusually close to the equator--at 7.5°N, 171.6°W, or about 1300 miles southwest of Honolulu--and was moving south-southeast at about 7 mph. Pali should continue drifting equatorward over the next several days, gradually bending toward the west and potentially back toward the west-northwest if it hangs on. Sea-surface temperatures are more than warm enough to support Pali along its projected track, at 28-29°C (82-84°F). However, moderate wind shear (10 - 20 knots) could keep Pali from strengthening, and there are few historical precedents for tropical cyclones at such low latitudes. In its 4:00 am EST update, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center noted: “It is fair to say the uncertainty is higher than normal as Pali moves closer to the equator.” Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a Tuesday morning post analyzing the possibility that Pali could cross the equator--something no tropical cyclone has ever been observed to do.


Meanwhile, a tenacious extratropical storm over the Central North Atlantic still has a chance to take on subtropical characteristics later this week as it angles southeast, east of 40°W longitude. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 40% chance of development through Sunday. Sea-surface temperatures are on the cool side for a fully tropical system, though.

Bob Henson




El Niño Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Mr. Henson.
Thanks guys..It is good to see thorough research on this Nino episode.
Are Ula and Pali strengthening El Niño with the west winds between them?
thanx mr henson


“Third, at heart I simply want to understand how the system works


don't we all
Thanks Mr. Henson; awesome information and research going on. While taking advantage of this "super" El Nino event, with all of these new data sets and information, I am hopeful that some of the research will trickle down to "regular" El Nino events in terms of the model forecasts, spring predictability issues, and the relation of the particular PDO in any given year to the pacific enso phase.
not often we can post this in january....


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
Ocean about 900 miles southwest of the Azores is producing a large
area of gale-force winds with maximum winds near 60 mph. Shower
activity is currently limited near the center, but this low could
gradually acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics
during the next couple of days while it moves southeastward and then
eastward into the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Regardless of
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system is expected
to produce hazardous marine conditions over portions of the central
and eastern Atlantic for the next few days. For additional
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 2 PM EST Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Pasch
Thank you Mr. Henson.
I'm really curious whether the extent of ocean warming in the 18 years since that '97-98 "Super El Niño" can be teased out of the mix, so that a direct comparison between that one and this one can be more meaningful. I have a feeling that 17 years of warming is the big influence that tipped this El Niño into "super" status. If it is the case that warming tipped the balance, we are probably in for many more, and more "super", super El Niños. In that case 2015-2016 should be recorded as another AGW Tipping Point.
Here are the sst anomalies as of Dec 2015 under this current super El Nino; the impacts of this one are pretty obvious worldwide in terms of the Pacific and adjacent waters:

Great report Dr. Henson. Thank you.
Here in New Smyrna Beach we are awaiting a Thursday/Friday event, similar to 1997 which created two tornadoes
destroying a number of homes yet no deaths.
Quoting 3. hydrus:


Yes :) because that has been so useful.....
Quoting 14. washingtonian115:

Yes :) because that has been so useful.....
Yep..., But check this out..Sudden Stratospheric Warming is coming...Which mean February will likely be cold and stormy..Maybe even March..Link
Thanks Bob. Great entry...
The Atlantic cyclone developed a small eye-like feature:

Thank you Bob!
Really appreciate your time, expertise and the passion that you put into each of your blog articles. The contributions of both you and Dr. Jeff are really great (adjective-challenged this morning for some reason!). If I was directing a University Meteorological Department I would require students to follow this blog and submit papers on each post. Again, just a 'Thank You' for informing and educating the WU community!
God bless you and have a wonderful rest of the day!
Great post - can't wait to read their findings.
Quoting 15. hydrus:

Yep..., But check this out..Sudden Stratospheric Warming is coming...Which mean February will likely be cold and stormy..Maybe even March..Link
Heard this mantra before.....I'm out for now
Pretty strong gradient here in anomalies. That cool pool south of Greenland is as dominate as I have seen in some time.

Also don't like the warmth anomalies off the US Gulf and East Coast at this time in the season. Should be interesting to see what we are looking at heading into next summer. ..
Pali the unprecedented tropical system. If BAMD model forecast verifies, Pali could be a hurricane, typhoon, and cyclone! Of course it's highly unlikely, but the fact that there is even a possibility is amazing.
And welcome 90L!
We have 90L now
Invest 90L
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 12, 2016:

Location: 24.8°N 37.9°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 400 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
338 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2016

...ACTIVE PATTERN LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST ALL OF NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONGER, WETTER WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION BEGINNING
THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTH BAY AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR RAIN
APPEARS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LIKELY THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
Quoting 23. Bobbyweather:

Pali the unprecedented tropical system. If BAMD model forecast verifies, Pali could be a hurricane, typhoon, and cyclone! Of course it's highly unlikely, but the fact that there is even a possibility is amazing.

It might even loop around again, phase with a dipping trough and front, and book it straight for the California coast.
Wow, I posted on the previous blog last night that the low in the Atlantic had commenced transitioning. Or must have at least, as convection was creeping very close to the centre, and now it really looks to have been taking strides... I now believe this may become Alex.

In January.

Sweeeeet.
Quoting 22. ILwthrfan:

Pretty strong gradient here in anomalies. That cool pool south of Greenland is as dominate as I have seen in some time.

Also don't like the warmth anomalies off the US Gulf and East Coast at this time in the season. Should be interesting to see what we are looking at heading into next summer. ..



That Greenland cold pool, as I noted a few times in 2015, is my personal "poster child" for global warming as the pool is most probably the result of glacial melt on the Greenland ice cap.

That, as a few research papers have noted, has potential implications for a slowing or disruption of the Gulf Stream as is curves past Greenland on the way to Europe; if the cold denser waters off of Greenland are indeed affecting the flow of the Gulf Stream further north, it is no surprise that we are also seeing "pooling" of warmer waters off the NE US coast/Canadian maritimes................Expect the Greenland cold pool and NE coast warm pool to become more pronounced in coming years if this is indeed the case.
What an interesting start to 2016.



GFS 12z showing a interesting southern track system that may produce snowfall across the Southeast.

Quoting 28. LostTomorrows:

Wow, I posted on the previous blog last night that the low in the Atlantic had commenced transitioning. Or must have at least, as convection was creeping very close to the centre, and now it really looks to have been taking strides... I now believe this may become Alex.

In January.

Sweeeeet.


Looks to me like it has transitioned (but what do I know). Let's see if we get an upgrade this afternoon.
90L
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

90L Rainbow Loop

Here is another byproduct of the warm pool off of New England; less Cod


By Marianne Lavelle 

The Atlantic cod, a fish that came to symbolize bounty to America’s colonial settlers, is on the brink of disappearing, despite years of fishing limits aimed at rebuilding stocks. A new study reveals why: Cod spawning and survival has been hampered by rapid, extraordinary ocean warming in the Gulf of Maine, where sea surface temperatures rose faster than anywhere else on the planet between 2003 and 2014.

“Over this same 10-year period, fishery managers set quotas that they felt were informed by high-quality science, and the stock just kept going down, down, down,” says study leader Andrew Pershing, the chief scientist for the Gulf of Maine Research Institute in Portland, Maine. When his team looked closely at factors behind the trends, he says, “We found the fingerprints of temperature throughout the data.”

The scientists used satellite data to track the daily sea surface temperature trend in the Gulf of Maine. From 1982 until 2004, they found, temperatures rose by 0.03°C per year, or three times the global mean rate. That warming accelerated sevenfold beginning in 2004, peaking in 2012 with a large “ocean heat wave” that persisted for 18 months, according to the study.

To see what drove the trend, the researchers correlated quarterly Gulf of Maine temperatures over that time with large-scale climate factors. They found that a northward shift of the warm ocean current known as the Gulf Stream hit the New England coast at the same time that two decade-long ocean climate cycles, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, entered a warmer phase, turning the heat up even further. Previous research has linked the Gulf Stream’s gradual northward shift over the 20th century to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Those combined effects packed a punch, the authors say: “The Gulf of Maine experienced decadal warming that few marine ecosystems have encountered,” they write online today in Science. Since 1900, the chance of any similar segment of the ocean warming so fast was less than 0.3%, they found.

Thank you,Mr. Henson.
Looks like 90L has transitioned enough to be subtropical at this point. The organization is there and it is rather robust. Exciting to see a possible named storm in January, wow!
2015 is the record hottest calendar year in China.

Link
Powerball went up to $1.5B now.....and it's all mine !
Nice to see the extra hurricane hunter hours going to good use. El Nino should be plenty peaking in February. With the huge Westward Wind Burst & those storms straddling the equator, ESPI has shot back up to 2.33. Very close to it's peak about 6 weeks ago.

Here is a close-up I captured of Pali last night. Is that lighting? Occasionally one comes up like that one, the brilliant bright spots don't level at all in paint.


Quoting 40. Stoopid1:

Looks like 90L has transitioned enough to be subtropical at this point. The organization is there and it is rather robust. Exciting to see a possible named storm in January, wow!

This was moment I worried about days ago. Look how good it looked detaching in the night on rapidscat..

Now this morning's ASCAT pass..So elongated..
Quoting 43. Skyepony:

Nice to see the extra hurricane hunter hours going to good use. El Nino should be plenty peaking in February. With the huge Westward Wind Burst & those storms straddling the equator, ESPI has shot back up to 2.33. Very close to it's peak about 6 weeks ago.

Here is a close-up I captured of Pali last night. Is that lighting? Occasionally one comes up like that one, the brilliant bright spots don't level at all in paint.





How do you define the peak of an El Nino. Nino 3.4 SST anomalies are about 1 C lower than the peak observed in November/December. What exactly will be peaking in February?
Quoting 15. hydrus:

Yep..., But check this out..Sudden Stratospheric Warming is coming...Which mean February will likely be cold and stormy..Maybe even March..Link

What does it say about the quality of a forecast when English grammar and syntax are challenges yet to be overcome by the author?
Quoting 42. MahFL:

Powerball went up to $1.5B now.....and it's all mine !


You won??
Quoting 45. tampabaymatt:



How do you define the peak of an El Nino. Nino 3.4 SST anomalies are about 1 C lower than the peak observed in November/December. What exactly will be peaking in February?

Nino 3.4 SST anomalies moves in steps like ESPI index. Usually El Nino generally follows ESPI by 3-8 weeks (more so going up, sometimes it lags going down, it's not perfect predictor but one thing i watch and use). ESPI had dropped to around 1.25 and stayed there for a month or more. It was probably more than 6 weeks since it's last peak that was followed by that peak we saw in El Nino, but since...ESPI has shot up so quick and high in the last 2 weeks, I don't see this El Nino just tapering off from that peak in Nov-Dec 2015. I'm more than half expecting a second peak, not sure if it will be close to the one in Nov-Dec or higher yet. That should be under way evolving wise in February (if not peaking toward the end). Either way to take a good look at the evolution across time between this incredible Westward Wind Burst & it's fruition through February is very fortunate to this thrown together project.
31 degrees in Carbondale right now with a wind chill of 20.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated
and organized near the center of a non-tropical low pressure system
centered about 1100 miles southwest of the Azores. The low is
producing winds to near 60 mph over the southern and eastern
portions of its circulation. Although environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive for development, this system could become
a subtropical or tropical storm within the next day or so. The
cyclone is expected to move eastward to northeastward over the
eastern subtropical Atlantic over the next couple of days.
Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system
is expected to produce hazardous marine conditions over portions of
the eastern Atlantic for the next few days. For additional
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and Meteo France. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 2 PM EST Wednesday.
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.


Forecaster Pasch

Is that a pin-hole eye? LOL!

Windshear is favorable near the Azores the entire week.I wonder if a hurricane through the Azores would be possible.I doubt it with SSTs in the mid 60s.
2016, the Year the Humans recognized the New Global Forcing's due to Climate Change.

December 2015 CO2 401.85ppm


Quoting 54. Patrap:

2016, the Year the Humans recognized the New Global Forcing's due to Climate Change.

December 2015 CO2 401.85ppm



That could reach 500 ppm by 2030...jmo
Hard to tell at this point if the Atlantic low will be able to be classified (and named) as a tropical low; looks like it is currently right on the margin between warm waters and cooler waters in the vicinity of 35W-25N:





BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN OCCLUDED 992 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N38W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NE OF
THE LOW NEAR 34N35W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM
THE TRIPLE POINT TO 19N33W TO 14N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 26W-37W. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM N OF 22N
BETWEEN 39W-45W...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 20-28 FT. METEO-FRANCE
IS ALSO FORECASTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE ZONES OF CAPE
VERDE AND METEOR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALSO...PLEASE
REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.




Quoting 51. fmbill:

Is that a pin-hole eye? LOL!




It's a category 4 extratropical system :)
I just finished reading Bob Henson's blog. Really interesting and thorough information. We really appreciate the "time" and work that goes into that. It should be interesting to see what new information they find with the research.
Quoting 49. 62901IL:

31 degrees in Carbondale right now with a wind chill of 20.


Just 10 degrees here at noon with 16 mph wind gusting to 20-25 mph from the north dropping the wind chill down to a -10 !!

Several schools closed today due to drifting snow blocking some country roads where buses couldn't tread ..
Organizers of the NOAA El Nino Rapid Response Field Campaign will provide an overview of the field campaign and related partnerships at this week's 96th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society in New Orleans (7:00 - 8:30 pm Tuesday, room 243 of the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center). You can follow news about the project at the dedicated ESRL website.


May go down to the AMS convention tonight here in NOLA.
Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 1h1 hour ago
About 75 percent of DC's snow typically falls in Jan and Feb. We're waiting.......

Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 3m3 minutes ago
If snow doesn't get going soon, 2015-2016 may rank near the bottom in DC

Even they are getting antsy.
I don't normally post the SAL and Sheer Charts charts for the Atlantic Basin until the Summer Atlantic Hurricane Season..................................There does appear to be a lot of dry air coming into the circulation from the Central Atlantic.







Quoting 43. Skyepony:

Nice to see the extra hurricane hunter hours going to good use. El Nino should be plenty peaking in February. With the huge Westward Wind Burst & those storms straddling the equator, ESPI has shot back up to 2.33. Very close to it's peak about 6 weeks ago.

Here is a close-up I captured of Pali last night. Is that lighting? Occasionally one comes up like that one, the brilliant bright spots don't level at all in paint.








Please don't hate me for it, I had to :)

Quoting 55. hydrus:

That could reach 500 ppm by 2030...jmo

500 might be a bit high but 450 will certainly be possible if not inevitable the way things are going. With gas prices at $30 a barrel and dropping then the whole world will be using gas like there is no tomorrow, which in some cases may be true.

Meanwhile about a 3rd of US oil companies might drift into bankruptcy soon as they can not create enough cash to service their debts.

Over a million new cars registered in Spain last year and who knows how many trucks etc?
All burning gas flat out. While old cars tend to drive only locally, new cars are often used on long journeys so more gas needed there and with prices down by about 40% recently on gas its even becoming cheap at about only $4 a gallon here in our area.
ATCF for Pali reveals that as of 1800 UTC, Pali is a Category 2 hurricane, with winds at 85 knots and pressure at 977 mb.

Downy Woodpecker . Picture taken through the window, at 10° F. Powder snow, about 4".


What happens when a lake dries up entirely?
In the case of the Lake Poopo in Bolivia, the Andean nation's formerly second largest after the famed Titicaca, the answer is nothing short of devastation.

The saltwater Lake Poopo was located in the Bolivian altiplano at an altitude of 3,700 metres in the western department of Oruro.

The area has long been populated by mining outfits, which depended on the lake. For their part, members of local communities like Untavi historically made a living from fishing and other activities dependent on the body of water.

With the water gone, animals have died off in the millions, according to studies. And the local families, having lost much of their sustenance, have been forced to migrate.

The government has declared the area a "disaster zone," but many say not enough has been done to make the area sustainable again.

Valerio Calle Rojas is one of 150 fishermen from the Untavi community.

"Just 40 days ago there was water, and flamingos were there. There was some water, where there's now those small, dark patches," he said.

He explained Lake Poopo's gradual water loss.

"In the 90's there was at least 2,000 square kilometres of water. After that, the water level began going down,” he said. “In 1995, 1996, there was a drought as well, and the water dried up, but it came back quickly. (…) There should be some rain. But that's not happening.”

“But now because of global warming, and the currents of the Pacific Ocean, the El Nino phenomenon occurs every three years,” Perez said. “So, one year of El Nino, one year La Nina, and in the best of cases one normal year. One year is not sufficient for the lake to recover. And it's only going to get worse.”



The crisis came to a head in late 2014 with a massive loss of local animal life. Deaths among fish have been estimated in the millions. Some 500 or so birds, including flamingoes and ducks, also died.

...more,
Quoting 64. Jedkins01:






Please don't hate me for it, I had to :)



I never claimed to be able to spell:P & pronounce it lightening 1/2 the time (since that's how it is pronounced in one area I lived)...

So is that lightning?
Quoting 60. whitewabit:



Just 10 degrees here at noon with 16 mph wind gusting to 20-25 mph from the north dropping the wind chill down to a -10 !!

Several schools closed today due to drifting snow blocking some country roads where buses couldn't tread ..
About equidistant from you two, we're closer to your conditions though - 17 w/ 7 dew pt & 6 wc, 30.16" w/ 10 mph winds, gust shows as 36 WSW, not sure when that was as winds are W to NW. Had our first visible sticking snow this a.m., came in w/ a big wind burst just before 6, blizzard like for about 2-3 minutes, maybe a 1/4" of light dry snow.
Quoting 65. PlazaRed:


500 might be a bit high but 450 will certainly be possible if not inevitable the way things are going. With gas prices at £30 a barrel and dropping then the whole world will be using gas like there is no tomorrow, which in some cases may be true.

Meanwhile about a 3rd of US oil companies might drift into bankruptcy soon as they can not create enough cash to service their debts.

Over a million new cars registered in Spain last year and who knows how many trucks etc?
All burning gas flat out. While old cars tend to drive only locally, new cars are often used on long journeys so more gas needed there and with prices down by about 40% recently on gas its even becoming cheap at about only $4 a gallon here in our area.
Morgan Stanley said this week that oil prices could drop to $20 a barrel. RBS noted it could go as low as $16 a barrel or even less. In fact, crude just dropped briefly below $30.

Yowza...
#65 With gas prices at £30 a barrel

To clarify, Oil is 30 dollars US a Barrel currently,

Gas is sold by the gallon here in the United States and is down to $ 1.65 a gal here in NOLA.

Crude Oil & Natural Gas
Index Units Price
CL1:COM WTI Crude Oil (Nymex) USD/bbl. 30.14
CO1:COM Brent Crude (ICE) USD/bbl. 30.43
CP1:COM Crude Oil (Tokyo) JPY/kl 22,490.00
NG1:COM Natural Gas (Nymex) USD/MMBtu 2.28
Quoting 62. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 1h1 hour ago
About 75 percent of DC's snow typically falls in Jan and Feb. We're waiting.......

Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 3m3 minutes ago
If snow doesn't get going soon, 2015-2016 may rank near the bottom in DC

Even they are getting antsy.


The grand total for winter 1941-2 was 1.5". Until March 30 when another foot fell.

It ain't over til its over
Quoting 29. weathermanwannabe:



That Greenland cold pool, as I noted a few times in 2015, is my personal "poster child" for global warming as the pool is most probably the result of glacial melt on the Greenland ice cap.

That, as a few research papers have noted, has potential implications for a slowing or disruption of the Gulf Stream as is curves past Greenland on the way to Europe; if the cold denser waters off of Greenland are indeed affecting the flow of the Gulf Stream further north, it is no surprise that we are also seeing "pooling" of warmer waters off the NE US coast/Canadian maritimes................Expect the Greenland cold pool and NE coast warm pool to become more pronounced in coming years if this is indeed the case.


That pool and the slowing of the Gulf Stream has all kinds of implications.
Oil collapses close to $30 per barrel

London (AFP) - Oil dived Tuesday close to $30 on abundant crude supplies, as OPEC member Nigeria called for an emergency meeting to address collapsing prices that have ravaged revenues.
In late afternoon deals, New York's benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February delivery tanked to $30.10 a barrel, which was the lowest level since December 2, 2003.

Europe's Brent North Sea crude for February had earlier dived to $30.43, a point last seen on April 6, 2004.

"Oil prices are looking to test $30 a barrel again, despite news of some member states calling for an emergency OPEC meeting before the scheduled one in June," said GKFX analyst James Hughes.

Nigerian petroleum resources minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu declared that he expects an extraordinary meeting of the oil cartel in "early March" to discuss nosediving crude prices.

"We did say that if it (the price) hits the 35 (dollar per barrel), we will begin to look (at)... an extraordinary meeting," said Kachikwu.

The prices have hit levels that necessitate a meeting, he told an energy forum in Abu Dhabi, but added that he had not yet confirmed with fellow OPEC ministers if they would be willing to attend.

In later deals, Brent oil was down 97 cents at $30.58, while WTI stood at $30.26, down $1.15 from Monday's close.

more.....
Quoting 74. georgevandenberghe:



The grand total for winter 1941-2 was 1.5". Until March 30 when another foot fell.

It ain't over til its over
I believe your region will get whacked...
Quoting 65. PlazaRed:


500 might be a bit high but 450 will certainly be possible if not inevitable the way things are going. With gas prices at £30 a barrel and dropping then the whole world will be using gas like there is no tomorrow, which in some cases may be true.

Meanwhile about a 3rd of US oil companies might drift into bankruptcy soon as they can not create enough cash to service their debts.

Over a million new cars registered in Spain last year and who knows how many trucks etc?
All burning gas flat out. While old cars tend to drive only locally, new cars are often used on long journeys so more gas needed there and with prices down by about 40% recently on gas its even becoming cheap at about only $4 a gallon here in our area.

While I agree that these trends are indeed worrying (who wouldn't), Spain is one of the last places we need to worry about using too much oil. Most people take trains when traveling, many of them high speed. Add to that the fact that the public transit is great (not to mention the infrastructure in general) and not many people even use their cars much unless they're maybe going for a weekend away within an hour (or at most two) of the city. The population of Spain is around 47 million, a mere drop in the human bucket when compared to places like China and India, where automobile use has taken off as more and more people become part of the middle and upper class (especially China). The million new cars being registered in Spain last year has a lot to do with the fact that people there do not like to buy used vehicles. Most use their car until it cannot be used anymore. The hot dry climate allows cars to last longer than most other places, while maintaining a better condition. When you buy a vehicle in Spain, nine times out of ten it's new. Therefore, the numbers will look skewed when compared to most nations.

It's true, lower gas prices will lead to higher use of cars, leaving some less willing to opt for trains, but Spain's impact is minimal compared to many places, especially our country of car loving oil guzzling road tripping fanatics over here on the other side of the pond.
Quoting 77. hydrus:

I believe your region will get whacked...


When is your guess? My intuition and "spider sense" tell me you are right but the past several GFS integrations have given us near misses only.
Quoting 68. Patrap:



What happens when a lake dries up entirely?
In the case of the Lake Poopo in Bolivia, the Andean nation's formerly second largest after the famed Titicaca, the answer is nothing short of devastation.

[...]

“But now because of global warming, and the currents of the Pacific Ocean, the El Nino phenomenon occurs every three years,” Perez said. “So, one year of El Nino, one year La Nina, and in the best of cases one normal year. One year is not sufficient for the lake to recover. And it's only going to get worse.”

[...]


“We are now living outside of the laws of nature where nature is now turning against man and becoming the enemy. Climate change is the consequence of the fact that man is operating outside the laws of life and laws of nature, law of the balance of the world. And doing so will destroy the balance.” --Kogi

The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement cautioning about possible hazardous conditions this evening:

“THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND COULD DROP A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS. WHILE ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AT PRESENT…GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY RESULT IN PATCHES OF ICE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO REACH 50 MPH WHICH COULD CAUSE SPOTTY MINOR
DAMAGE.”
Welcome to the Anthropocene .

Greet the 'Anthropocene': five signs Earth's geology has entered a man-made epoch

More than two dozen scientists have spent at least six years debating if humanity's wear and tear on the planet qualifies as a new geological epoch that deserves its own name.

Coal's origins date back to the Carboniferous Period 350million years ago. Dinosaurs roamed Earth until a meteor brought an end to their Cretaceous Period 66million years ago. Civilisation grew up in the Holocene, which started only 11 700 years ago...

mucho more'
Quoting 75. Qazulight:



That pool and the slowing of the Gulf Stream has all kinds of implications.


Including fish and other marine life in terms of migration patterns and/or die off; the study on the Cod seems to suggest that the warmer waters in the Gulf of Maine are impacting spawning (in that region) hence the decline in the fish stock. The secondary issue is whether the Cod have moved, or will move, further North for recovery purposes.

On the weather front, we saw the record snow in Boston last season in part because of the "snow effect" of the warmer waters just offshore and we know that the Gulf Stream plays a moderation role for weather in Northern Europe.................Lots of variables in play as to the Gulf Stream issue alone; at least we have the technical means to collect hard data and connect the dots to the current warming phase as these events unfold.

Actually a very interesting time to live in, weather wise, to be able to witness a real time accelerated warming phase of the Earth.
Quoting 79. georgevandenberghe:



When is your guess? My intuition and "spider sense" tell me you are right but the past several GFS integrations have given us near misses only.
This this will help cool things down, I havnt had time to check out the medium range models.

Quoting 80. Xandra:


“We are now living outside of the laws of nature where nature is now turning against man and becoming the enemy. Climate change is the consequence of the fact that man is operating outside the laws of life and laws of nature, law of the balance of the world. And doing so will destroy the balance.” --Kogi



This is exactly what GeoffreyWPB has been saying for years !!!
Quoting 76. Patrap:

Oil collapses close to $30 per barrel

London (AFP) - Oil dived Tuesday close to $30 on abundant crude supplies, as OPEC member Nigeria called for an emergency meeting to address collapsing prices that have ravaged revenues.
In late afternoon deals, New York's benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February delivery tanked to $30.10 a barrel, which was the lowest level since December 2, 2003.

Europe's Brent North Sea crude for February had earlier dived to $30.43, a point last seen on April 6, 2004.

"Oil prices are looking to test $30 a barrel again, despite news of some member states calling for an emergency OPEC meeting before the scheduled one in June," said GKFX analyst James Hughes.

Nigerian petroleum resources minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu declared that he expects an extraordinary meeting of the oil cartel in "early March" to discuss nosediving crude prices.

"We did say that if it (the price) hits the 35 (dollar per barrel), we will begin to look (at)... an extraordinary meeting," said Kachikwu.

The prices have hit levels that necessitate a meeting, he told an energy forum in Abu Dhabi, but added that he had not yet confirmed with fellow OPEC ministers if they would be willing to attend.

In later deals, Brent oil was down 97 cents at $30.58, while WTI stood at $30.26, down $1.15 from Monday's close.

more.....


BP to lay off 4,000 workers
Quoting 72. Neapolitan:

Morgan Stanley said this week that oil prices could drop to $20 a barrel. RBS noted it could go as low as $16 a barrel or even less. In fact, crude just dropped briefly below $30.

Yowza...

3 Factors which control the minds and lives of most of the Europeans I have known over may decades.
The prices of:-
Cigarettes.
Alcohol, mainly beer and of COURSE.
Petrol, or Gas as some falsely call it.

If you were a political party and you said that these 3 would drop in price, even only one of them by 50 % you would win, because these are the three things that the one man, one vote wants to see cheap and use.
In Spain Franco said that if Alcohol and Cigarettes are cheap then you wont have many problems.
If he was alive today he would include petrol as that's what drives the populace to unlimited pleasure of being able to get away from it all and in the past petrol has been too costly for most people to use.
Now with petrol at about $4 / galloon the masses can use it and get about. I expect massive increases in fuel use and of course road deaths.
So we have Gas at $4 a gallon. Cigarettes at $4 a packet and beer at 50 cents a pint. (Wine is about 50 cents a pint as well for the bottom end stuff most poor people drink.)
Happiness all round.
Everybody join the "Lemming Party" ASAP and race hell for leather into oblivion?

Terra Forming a new Biosphere that the last time it warmed 5-7C it took 12,500 years.

We're on a pace to do it in less than 400 with 200 of them behind us .

Species will and are being lost at a rate 1000 times faster than anytime in the past geologic record.

What could possibly go wrong?



If gas ever goes down to $ 1.25 per gallon, it will not grow hair back on my balding head, but it will take me back in my mind 25 years when I used to run around town in Red Camaro with a full head of hair blowin in the wind..........................
Quoting 81. washingtonian115:

The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement cautioning about possible hazardous conditions this evening:

%u201CTHE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND COULD DROP A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS. WHILE ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AT PRESENT%u2026GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY RESULT IN PATCHES OF ICE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO REACH 50 MPH WHICH COULD CAUSE SPOTTY MINOR
DAMAGE.%u201D
Yea, looks like a snow squall is coming around 6pm. I recall last February when they would come and bring a period of whiteout conditions.
Quoting 89. Patrap:

Terra Forming a new Biosphere that the last time it warmed 5-7C it took 12,500 years.

We're on a pace to do it in less than 400 with 200 of them behind us .

Species will and are being lost at a rate 1000 times faster than anytime in the past geologic record.

What could possibly go wrong?





"What could go wrong?"
Well Pat, the only thing I can think of is a natural disaster of massive scale, like a major Earthquake of unprecedented scale or an meteorite strike bringing devastation.
Maybe a plague or a nuclear war but one thing for sure the humans wont stop it by their own choice!

After all we are about to get into the party of the 21st century with chap oil and nothing to stop the stagecoach to oblivion.

When I was recently in the USA in the New York zone, I could not even after 2 weeks adapt to gas prices at $2.60 cents per gallon, when we were paying about $8. I could understand that people are being charged prices for beer which we would only expect and not pay in the most expensive watering holes in Europe but the gas prices were astounding and even when I returned to Europe nobody believed me that people are paid up to $50 an hour for working on building sites and only pay less than $3 a gallon for gas.
I work an hour to buy a gallon of gas, the bricklayers in NY can buy more than 15 gallons of gas with what they earn in an hour.
Now I'm a pensioner on $220 a month. Que Sera Sera.
No wonder we have hurricanes in January and 401 Parts Per Million?
Quoting 85. hydrus:

This this will help cool things down, I havnt had time to check out the medium range models.


That'll be pretty useless cold air as it be to late so they can keep it in Canada.ON a positive note it looks like we'll get Alex within the next two days or less depending on when the NHC decides o pull the trigger.
Quoting 51. fmbill:

Is that a pin-hole eye? LOL!



This shows how a still could be deluding :)

@Jedkins01, consider the + on #64 a signal of hate ;)
I even forgot how to correct that typo before getting it again through that helpful picture..
Quoting 91. Climate175:

Yea, looks like a snow squall is coming around 6pm. I recall last February when they would come and bring a period of whiteout conditions.


We hope....
Time is running out for Alex to form. It appears as if it may be turning subtropical or tropical, but it likely won't be classified until tomorrow at the earliest, if at all. It could be one of those storms that is changed or added in post-analysis.
Now Pali is a stunning sight.
Different time of year I'd say this thing is attaining major status if not achieved already.

(I'm still to learn how to put an image into a post. While that, a link:) Link
Quoting 96. Drakoen:



We hope....
The NWS said this would be a squall, and that the worst of it east of I-95 would be from 4-5pm, and the worst of it along I-95 would be from 6-7pm on their twitter. We will see what happens over the next few hours.
Paid $1.53/gal in StL Sun when took daughter to airport, about 1.75 currently in my neck of woods (higher taxes, slower to drop (& slower to rise, usually)).

Made it up to 18, so now d.pt. & wc both 7.
Via CWG.
Thanks Mr. Henson, very good read. Doubt that the Atlantic system will get very strong but still strange to see that and a Pacific storm near Hawaii at the same time.

Quoting 90. weathermanwannabe:

If gas ever goes down to $ 1.25 per gallon, it will not grow hair back on my balding head, but it will take me back in my mind 25 years when I used to run around town in Red Camaro with a full head of hair blowin in the wind..........................


I paid $1.63 a gallon near Rock Hill, SC the second week of December and just paid $1.83 in High Point, NC over Christmas. I wonder what it's like near Myrtle.
Quoting 104. win1gamegiantsplease:

Thanks Mr. Henson, very good read. Doubt that the Atlantic system will get very strong but still strange to see that and a Pacific storm near Hawaii at the same time.



I paid $1.63 a gallon near Rock Hill, SC the second week of December and just paid $1.83 in High Point, NC over Christmas. I wonder what it's like near Myrtle.

i believe we should at least have alex by fri-sat. Circulation seems to be tightening up. Low pressure already producing winds of near 60 mph.
Thanks as well Mr Henson, I'm looking forward to the results of this El Nino close watching by NOAA and partners.
Also, very informative read.
Good evening and thanks to Bob for the profound informations in the new blog entry! I hope all this efforts will give us new insights to predict what future Godzilla Ninos will do to us!

Today Russia lives up to his fame of decent winter weather:



Source and more nice winter pics here (Christmas was only recently in Eastern Europe): Blizzard covers Moscow, Jan 12 - 10:44 pm

Heavy snow here either (short note): Power Cut As Blizzard Hits Belarus, Published 12 January 2016


From the site of Russian Met Service (snow storm coming in from the left side).
Radar showing some reflectivity west of LWX. Good sign.
re post 68 Patrap: The probability of this event becoming a call to action in this country is directly proportional to the number of Republicans that live in the area, and the constant of proportionality is quite small. How long would it take
Donald Trump go get "Lake Poopo? Sounds like Lake Poo Poo" out of his mouth?
#88:
Che said:
There are two things you need for a revolution army:
1) Shoe leather
2) Tobacco
Winter has finally entered our Alps as well - as the impressive video below of an avalanche in Bessans/France shows (no victims fortunately):

---
Pali has now likely enhanced the strongest WWB on record and looks to last into February now. We really need to monitor these trends as this will likely keep Nino 3.4 around 2.5C thru February based on the hollover maps. Also this El-Nino is becoming more and more east based as well. Needless to say a transition to La-Nina will be hard to come by in 2016.

Pali




This El-Nino may peak back near 3C in February as the CFSv2 is showing a second peak due to this extreme WWB. This El-Nino may also head toward 1997 values across Nino 1&2 as there are rapid rises occurring in this region.

Big shift east in these warm anomalies and is looking like the 1997 El-Nino further east now. Strange to see another peak coming with this El-Nino but that is where we are headed.

Quoting 115. Grothar:

Pali







about that 2016 La Nina LOL!!!
GFS is showing 2 major storms coming across FL over the next 5 days. 1 Friday then storm 2 Sunday both could be severe weather producers. Time to buckle up Floridians. The next several months could be very nasty here weather wise.
NWS Melbourne AFD

THU NIGHT-FRI...(MOD PREV DISC)
BY DAYBREAK THU A BROAD SFC WAVE OVER THE NRN MEX COUPLED WITH A
STRONG SRN STREAM OF THE H30-H20 JET WILL WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A
BROAD LOW OVER THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES...INDUCING A RAPIDLY EVOLVING
CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/WRN GOMEX THAT WILL
CONT THRU FRI EVNG. DOMINANT LOW PRES CENTER WILL DVLP OVER THE
PLAINS...SECONDARY CENTER OVER THE GOMEX.

LTST MODEL GUID REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM WRT MAJOR LOW/MID LVL FEATURES. AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES
ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDWEST THRU FRI...THE GOMEX
LOBE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE/DEEP SOUTH...CRANKING A
STRONG SFC TROF ACRS THE FL PENINSULA IN THE PROCESS.

A NOTEWORTHY INCREASE IN LOW LVL WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS A
SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASCD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROF WARRANTS CLOSE ATTENTION AS AN EPISODE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ROTATING STORMS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY APPARENT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE APPEARS
SOMEWHAT SKETCHY ATTM...BUT MAJOR DYNAMIC FEATURES SUCH AS MID LVL
PVA AND UPR LVL DIV WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO OVERCOME THIS...ESP
SHOULD SFC DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE U60S/L70S (NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SHOULD THE FCST 30-40KTS OF SRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H85 LYR
COME TO FRUITION).

MODELS SUGGESTING BEST STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE 12Z FRI TO 00Z
SAT TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RAPID EVOLUTION
UPSTREAM IS SUBJECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION REVISIONS BY LATER
GUIDANCE. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL CONT TSRAS IN THE FCST...CHC THU
EVNG AND LKLY ON FRI. STAY TUNED TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AS WE
PASS THROUGH MIDWEEK. DURING FRIDAY THE GULF SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE
GENERAL AREA BY EVENING WITH A LOWERING OF PCPN COVERAGE AND DRIER
AIR MOVING IN TO START THE WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT POST LOW COOL DOWN
IS NOT INDICATED BY GUIDANCE ATTM AS ANY POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BE
CARRIED MORE TO THE E ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH RATHER THAN SE INTO
FL...RESULTING IN A LIMITED WINDOW OF NWRLY FLOW BEFORE RETURN FLOW
BEGINS.
Quoting 116. StormTrackerScott:

This El-Nino may peak back near 3C in February as the CFSv2 is showing a second peak due to this extreme WWB. This El-Nino may also head toward 1997 values across Nino 1&2 as there are rapid rises occurring in this region.


Not easy to get rid of such a guy ;-)
Quoting 119. StormTrackerScott:



about that 2016 La Nina LOL!!!


Hey, I never laughed at you when you called for a monster el Nino!! I'm telling you, monster La Nina this autumn. :):)






Quoting 121. fmbill:

NWS Melbourne AFD ...

Reminds me of the other Melbourne down under ;-)

Heat warning as 41 degree (105,8F) day looms: No running, no gardening - stay inside and keep cool
January 12, 2016 - 4:52PM
Victorians have been warned to brace themselves for a day of very high heat on Wednesday, with extreme fire danger warnings in place throughout the state and temperatures set to reach 40 degrees.
The weather bureau is forecasting a windy 41 degrees in Melbourne, and across Victoria only the West Gippsland region is expected to avoid temperatures in the 40s.
The state's authorities are asking people to be prepared for the scorching conditions. ...


Statewide fire ban in Victoria
Published: 7:13 am, Wednesday, 13 January 2016
Victorian firefighters are bracing for searing heat and high winds as a major bushfire continues to burn out of control on Victoria's surf coast.
A total fire ban is in effect for Wednesday in eight of Victoria's nine fire districts, with strong, dry northerly winds and temperatures exceeding 40C in many areas. ...

Went to see what Hurricane Pali's Storm History track is on this site. Yeah...it has 3 data points and NO dots on the map.

Wunderground, this is worse than a couple days ago when it was only tracking it's history back to January 1st!
Quoting 122. barbamz:



Not easy to get rid of such a guy ;-)
Scott, really enjoys his Nino forecast, now if he could get it right the first time around. The Nino has peaked a will rise a little more before it's decline in February This summer will have neutral to Nina conditions for 2016 hurricane season, and if not it will happen in 2017.
Quoting 120. StormTrackerScott:

GFS is showing 2 major storms coming across FL over the next 5 days. 1 Friday then storm 2 Sunday both could be severe weather producers. Time to buckle up Floridians. The next several months could be very nasty here weather wise.


What month was the '98 tornado outbreak?

Quoting 118. Grothar:




I wonder how many Alaskan Asskickers we'll get the next few months
Quoting 122. barbamz:



Not easy to get rid of such a guy ;-)
Elninosaurus...?
Quoting 128. NativeSun:

Scott, really enjoys his Nino forecast, now if he could get it right the first time around. The Nino has peaked a will rise a little more before it's decline in February This summer will have neutral to Nina conditions for 2016 hurricane season, and if not it will happen in 2017.

Who won't like to foster his hobby-horse? Although this Godzilla Nino is a thorny one to ride :-)
Quoting 129. win1gamegiantsplease:



What month was the '98 tornado outbreak?



I wonder how many Alaskan Asskickers we'll get the next few months


February.
Good night with an impressive lenticular cloud in Inegöl/northwestern Turkey today. Thoughts to those who lost their lives or health today in the blast of terror in Istanbul. I know, it happens every day somewhere else in the world (esp. in the Middle East) but this one hit home. :-(


Source: @ELTURC_O via Cyclone of Rhodes today.
Quoting 116. StormTrackerScott:

This El-Nino may peak back near 3C in February as the CFSv2 is showing a second peak due to this extreme WWB. This El-Nino may also head toward 1997 values across Nino 1&2 as there are rapid rises occurring in this region.




There's a reason El Ninos don't last more than 1-2 years. If anything, this WWB slows the decline of the current event. However, the supply of anomalous warm water in the WPac has basically been exhausted at this point, so the WWB is going to cause more upwelling and cool the WPac further. You'll also notice the warmest subsurface waters in the EPac has been rapidly shrinking. That might get a boost from the WWB, but that doesn't make a difference in the 3.4 area where it counts.

18z GFS; football weather.



---
So uh



whats the chances we actually get something from this.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL :

whats the chances we actually get something from this

50/50, says the NHC...
---
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated and organized near the center of a non-tropical low pressure system centered about 1100 miles southwest of the Azores. The low is
producing winds to near 60 mph over the southern and eastern portions of its circulation. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this system could become
a subtropical or tropical storm within the next day or so. The cyclone is expected to move eastward to northeastward over the eastern subtropical Atlantic over the next couple of days. Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce hazardous marine conditions over portions of the eastern Atlantic for the next few days. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and Meteo France. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 2 PM EST Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent



BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN OCCLUDED 992 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N38W WITH THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOCATED NE OF
THE LOW NEAR 34N35W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SW FROM
THE TRIPLE POINT TO 19N33W TO 14N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 26W-37W. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM N OF 22N
BETWEEN 39W-45W...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 20-28 FT. METEO-FRANCE
IS ALSO FORECASTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE ZONES OF CAPE
VERDE AND METEOR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ALSO...PLEASE
REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

The Carbon Bubble is Bursting

I admit it. I felt sorry for those poor, duped oil, gas and coal company investors back during the early part of 2015. Many of these guys, fed a constant stream of bad information from the financial news sources, at the time were still enraptured by the notion that fossil fuel stocks were then cheap and that the situation was nothing more than some kind of golden buying opportunity.

Now, six months later, 41 US oil and gas companies have gone bankrupt, powerful major oil companies like Exxon and BP are in the range of 20-40 percent losses in stock price year-on-year, most gas companies have seen even more severe losses, and most coal companies have been reduced to junk stock status (see Arch Coal declares bankruptcy). TransCanada, the parent company of the canceled Keystone XL Pipeline, is challenging United States sovereignty with its 15 billion dollar lawsuit. But it’s questionable if the company will even exist long enough to see the results of its NAFTA-based legal challenge.


Robert Scribbler
NWS in Melbourne, I come home from work to find this. Could get interesting here on the home front.


THU NIGHT-FRI...(MOD PREV DISC)
BY DAYBREAK THU A BROAD SFC WAVE OVER THE NRN MEX COUPLED WITH A
STRONG SRN STREAM OF THE H30-H20 JET WILL WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A
BROAD LOW OVER THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES...INDUCING A RAPIDLY EVOLVING
CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/WRN GOMEX THAT WILL
CONT THRU FRI EVNG. DOMINANT LOW PRES CENTER WILL DVLP OVER THE
PLAINS...SECONDARY CENTER OVER THE GOMEX.

LTST MODEL GUID REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM WRT MAJOR LOW/MID LVL FEATURES. AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES
ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDWEST THRU FRI...THE GOMEX
LOBE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE/DEEP SOUTH...CRANKING A
STRONG SFC TROF ACRS THE FL PENINSULA IN THE PROCESS.

A NOTEWORTHY INCREASE IN LOW LVL WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS A
SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASCD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROF WARRANTS CLOSE ATTENTION AS AN EPISODE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ROTATING STORMS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY APPARENT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE APPEARS
SOMEWHAT SKETCHY ATTM...BUT MAJOR DYNAMIC FEATURES SUCH AS MID LVL
PVA AND UPR LVL DIV WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO OVERCOME THIS...ESP
SHOULD SFC DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE U60S/L70S (NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SHOULD THE FCST 30-40KTS OF SRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H85 LYR
COME TO FRUITION).

MODELS SUGGESTING BEST STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE 12Z FRI TO 00Z
SAT TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RAPID EVOLUTION
UPSTREAM IS SUBJECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION REVISIONS BY LATER
GUIDANCE. FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL CONT TSRAS IN THE FCST...CHC THU
EVNG AND LKLY ON FRI. STAY TUNED TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AS WE
PASS THROUGH MIDWEEK. DURING FRIDAY THE GULF SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE
GENERAL AREA BY EVENING WITH A LOWERING OF PCPN COVERAGE AND DRIER
AIR MOVING IN TO START THE WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANT POST LOW COOL DOWN
IS NOT INDICATED BY GUIDANCE ATTM AS ANY POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BE
CARRIED MORE TO THE E ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH RATHER THAN SE INTO
FL...RESULTING IN A LIMITED WINDOW OF NWRLY FLOW BEFORE RETURN FLOW
BEGINS.

SAT-TUE...(PREV DISC)
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK SHOWS SPLIT UA PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH A
RATHER ACTIVE SRN JET MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE ON FEATURE PLACEMENT
REGIONALLY. ANOTHER GULF SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY INDICATED BY GFS AND EC
AROUND SUNDAY. THIS IS 24H FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT`S GUIDANCE.
LEADING UP TO THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS ARE INDICATED ALONG WITH LOW RAIN CHCS SATURDAY THEN
BECOMING SCT PCPN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STORM ON SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER EPISODE MONDAY AND TUE IN THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.
Quoting 101. dabirds:

Paid $1.53/gal in StL Sun when took daughter to airport, about 1.75 currently in my neck of woods (higher taxes, slower to drop (& slower to rise, usually)).

Made it up to 18, so now d.pt. & wc both 7.


Thanks for sharing your disgustingly low gas prices with us on the Left Coast. Last I filled up it was $2.89 at a Circle-K store...

Climate Change Is Upending the Ecology of Lakes in the Andes
These tropical lakes are a crucial source of water—and climate change has them in jeopardy.

As glaciers across South America gradually vanish from existence, another key, but often underlooked, source of water—lakes—are also under threat. Climate change is fundamentally re-shaping lake ecology in the Tropical Andes, a development that could undermine biodiversity and jeopardize critical water resources in a region stretching from Venezuela to Bolivia, according to a study published this past February in PLoS One.


Link
Me thinks the system's ingesting too much dry air and maybe gonna move too far north for tropical development to occur, but we will see. It doesn't look to be suffering a lot from windshear right now.
Hopefully the line to our West holds up:

Quoting 146. 999Ai2016:

Me thinks the system's ingesting too much dry air and maybe gonna move too far north for tropical development to occur, but we will see. It doesn't look to be suffering a lot from windshear right now.

Aside from insufficient SSTs, the main problem is that there's still considerable low level cold air inflow, with the airstream originating over the notorious cold pool anomaly south of Greenland.
Quoting 141. Patrap:



Those clouds in the western sector look like cold air cumulus.
Quoting 148. BayFog:


Aside from insufficient SSTs, the main problem is that there's still considerable low level cold air inflow, with the airstream originating over the notorious cold pool anomaly south of Greenland.
True, that's what shows up also on the Water Vapor loop:


It seems to be feeding the convection on the other side though.


Tens of thousands of dead birds are washing up on the beaches of Alaska’s Prince William Sound, an unexplained mass die-off that some experts say may be related to the changing climate.

The birds, all of a species known as the common murre, appear to have starved to death, federal wildlife officials say, suggesting disruptions to the supply of herring and other fish that make up the birds’ diet.

A survey by wildlife officials over the weekend counted more than 8,000 dead murres on the shores of one beach near Whittier, about 60 miles southeast of Anchorage. Local news video showed bodies of the black-and-white birds scattered on the beach and floating in the water offshore.

a href="
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-enviro nment/wp/2016/01/12/mysterious-mass-deaths-of-alas kan-birds-baffles-scientists/" target="_blank">Link
152. RayT
Quoting 130. hydrus:

Elninosaurus...?


Nope. Kaiju. See the Pacific Rim movie.
betting against a big outbreak of tornadoes over central florida remember it was not until the last week of February that it happened in 98. just not enough warm air.


Drought and unrest sparked global societal collapse in the Bronze Age. Is it happening again?

The year 1177 BCE roughly demarks the disintegration of humanity’s first global civilization: the Late Bronze Age. At its peak, a booming trade in raw materials, agricultural goods, and finished products—from jewelry to pottery, spices and wine—encircled the Mediterranean and stretched north, perhaps as far as present-day Scandinavia, and east to Afghanistan and India.

Then, after centuries of brilliance, the civilized world of the Bronze Age came to an abrupt and cataclysmic end.


Link
Quoting 150. 999Ai2016:

True, that's what shows up also when you look at the Water Vapor loop:


It seems to be feeding the convection on the other side though.


It looks more like the cool dry side of the system is lifting and channeling the eastern subtropical inflow...in other words, a frontal system. Whatever the dynamics, there's no denying the remarkable vortex in the low center.


Rocky Mountain meltdown: CU scientists find glaciers shrinking

NSF-backed CU scientists using ground-penetrating radar measured ice loss due to climate, affecting western water supplies

Link

“We can’t get out of this. It is wired now, on the Colorado Front Range and in the Arctic,” Williams said. “There’s going to be less ability, on the water side, to address low flows in July and August.
“Glacier National Park is not going to have glaciers in another couple decades. People are going to be upset about that. We’re in a loop we cannot get out of,” he said, adding that loss of snow-and-ice reflectivity will push temperatures higher.
Quoting 151. RobertWC:





time is running short the time to act has passed
Damn, Arctic anomaly near 3C again...
compare sst's north Atlantic 2015/16 same date


Quoting 159. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



time is running short the time to act has passed


Faster and faster
Quoting 165. RobertWC:



Faster and faster
like a snowball rolling down a steep hill getting bigger and bigger faster and faster
stay away from the bottom of the steep hill
From the Miami NWS Disco...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...STILL WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT LOW OVER
THE GULF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN
CONSIDERABLY WITH THE DRIVING SHORTWAVE IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
AS IT TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL US AND PHASES WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
VORT MAX ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRI MORN.

IN TURN, THE RIDGE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY LINGERS
THROUGH THURS AFTERNOON AND HOLDS OFF THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
OLD, NOW WARM FRONT, BACK INTO THE PENINSULA TO LATE IN THE DAY.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE THURS NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE GULF AND MOVES ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION/S GEORGIA INTO
FRI MORN, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STORMS STARTING LATE THURS
NIGHT WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT, BECOMING
SCATTERED INTO FRIDAY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR
BEHIND THE FRONT.

WE WILL HAVE 135-140KT JET PASSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING THIS
TIME ALONG WITH A STRONG, VEERING WIND PROFILE THAT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. BUT, THESE FEATURES WILL NOT BE
WELL PHASED WITH THE BEST SURFACE INSTABILITY THAT MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW, THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW.

Link


Pali's turned a bit more south and is accelerating a little.
Snowing here in downtown Silver Spring. Near whiteout conditions.
Quoting 171. Drakoen:

Snowing here in downtown Silver Spring. Near whiteout conditions.


we had that this morning for a couple of hrs winter wonderland
now few backaches and a hand burn from the shovel remain
From Houston NWS:

SMALL CHANCE OF SEVERE WITH EACH DISTURBANCE WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT...SUGGESTING HAIL...AND STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGESTING
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. MISSING INGREDIENT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY. LIMITED MOISTURE AND
SPEED OF SYSTEMS ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL. STILL
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. SATURDAY SYSTEM LOOKS
QUITE STRONG WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS. GFS DETERMINISTIC
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS ACTUALLY GALE FORCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...ECMWF NOT QUITE AS STRONG. AGAIN SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. 46

What are they expecting for this coming Thursday? Not a total washout, I hope.
The kids had informed me that it is snowing outside with fat flakes and I told them they still have school in the morning.This is the best D.C can muster up this year.
Invest 90L has made the transition from a non-tropical low to a subtropical low today. A slight increase in convection near the center may result in the designation of Alex tonight or tomorrow. We'll see.

Evening all . Super blog entry, here. Glad to see the proactive approach being applied.

Another damp cool day here. Quite atypical January wx....
Make him stop-
I'm gonna end up getting banned again.
@164- Keeper- that's probably one of the most eye-opening posts you've EVER made.
Wow.
Quoting 164. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Dat loop eddy.
Quoting 144. PedleyCA:



Thanks for sharing your disgustingly low gas prices with us on the Left Coast. Last I filled up it was $2.89 at a Circle-K store...
Paid $3.87 / gal here [Bahamas] tonight. It's a real relief from prices nearly twice that high.
182. vis0
First the best of   luck   well thought out experiments as to the "field campaign" (mentioned in blogbyte) and doing that carefully to make sure no one is hurt then that findings are accurate.

Thank you to Mr Henson for the blogbyte for refreshing certain points as to ENSO and details of the study.

i do have a peeve to pick its on my zilly blog pg.6 cmmnt#267 ...as usual my comment THERE became a run on sentence on related subjects.

oops
Do you think our chances of Alex decreasing or increasing at this point?
164. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:01 PM EST on January 12, 2016

Yeesh...those waters are getting primed and ready I see....
Quoting 166. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

like a snowball rolling down a steep hill getting bigger and bigger faster and faster


Right into Homer Simpson's cabin .

I've been reading about the British response to their floods , it seems that dogma in the government is all that counts :

After the floods, local government is fighting to stay afloat

The state is fast shrinking. Local government, as we’ve known it, is in danger of sinking. Public agencies make do and mend as best they can, starved of resources. They do the government’s bidding through gritted teeth, aware that ministers only come running when the country – or parts of it – is beset by a natural disaster, or another emergency. Then – remember David Cameron in flood-stricken Carlisle last month? – they promise to deliver “whatever it takes”. They quickly move on.

There’s often little, if any coordination between Whitehall and town halls – pooling resources and expertise to develop a national flood management plan, for instance – because the government has made clear it doesn’t like planning, which is apparently redolent of a top-down, over-mighty state.


Link

The Republican reply tonight will be from the ultimate "states rights" ground zero. Nicky Haley governor of South Carolina. She's up to her eyeballs in the aftermath of that 1,000 year flood event.

Should we tell her , screw you , because the government has made clear it doesn’t like planning, which is apparently redolent of a top-down, over-mighty state. ?
Remember not one of their representatives in congress voted for "Sandy" relief.
Their floods were made worst from dam failures , because inspecting dams was "heavy handed" government.

If one thing climate change is going to do. It's to test government, and how we view it. And as the record shows, the odds are not good.
Quoting 180. Mediarologist:
Dat loop eddy.


le WILD loop eddy!

Quoting 183. HurricaneFan:

Do you think our chances of Alex decreasing or increasing at this point?
I would say increasing, looks like we could see Alex once we get a little more convection firing. 

Quoting 184. washingtonian115:

164. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:01 PM EST on January 12, 2016

Yeesh...those waters are getting primed and ready I see....
If shear starts to settle away with the El-Nino declining, we might need to look towards the Caribbean again.
Quoting 178. aquak9:

Make him stop-
I'm gonna end up getting banned again.

Welcome to the party , ( insert smiley face here ).
190. MahFL
The current CA storm created a new low level center :

Quoting 188. Climate175:


If shear starts to settle away with the El-Nino declining, we might need to look towards the Caribbean again.
Slow start, wild finish?
Quoting 191. BahaHurican:

Slow start, wild finish?
Maybe Alex could be the appetizer :) and the main course(s) will come in late Aug-October.The Bahamas water are very warm and the caribbean has a lot of energy that hasn't been used.Only time will tell but the list we're using this year did have some very destructive storms on it (Ivan,Allen,Andrew,Charely,Frances,Jeanne ect...)

This is a Red-Bellied Woodpecker. It's about twice as big as the Downy Woodpecker I photographed this morning. I took this picture through the window. It's about 7° F. outside. A few days ago it was about 40°, and muddy. The blanket of snow makes everything look clean again.
The SHIPS diagnostic message shows that Pali has passed the annular hurricane screening process; see link.
Another Pacific low forming??

Hey, TA. I made a blog this morning about you stealing my images, but it was removed. Don't know why. I guess they don't know how long we have all known each other on here. I even added smiley's. :):)

Quoting 195. Grothar:

Another Pacific low forming??

Hey, TA. I made a blog this morning about you stealing my images, but it was removed. Don't know why. I guess they don't know how long we have all known each other on here. I even added smiley's. :):)



I had them and saw them first!
Quoting 197. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I had them and saw them first!




GRRRRRR!!!!! You weren't even born when they came out!

Here's that Red Bellied Woodpecker.
Curmudgeonly Cody ;)
Quoting 104. win1gamegiantsplease:

Thanks Mr. Henson, very good read. Doubt that the Atlantic system will get very strong but still strange to see that and a Pacific storm near Hawaii at the same time.



I paid $1.63 a gallon near Rock Hill, SC the second week of December and just paid $1.83 in High Point, NC over Christmas. I wonder what it's like near Myrtle.
I know everyone likes the low gas prices but it is costing a lot of people their jobs!
203. MahFL
CNN is about 5 seconds behind ABC on their "live" tv transmission, are they that scared of transmitting something bad ?
Quoting 198. Grothar:





GRRRRRR!!!!! You weren't even born when they came out!


Quoting 197. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I had them and saw them first!


I'm going to organize a fight ring with you two as the main combatants and I'll let Taz be the official and vis0 be the ring announcer/commentator. Gro, you might need to lose weight in order to get down to Cody's weight class.
Quoting 202. gulfbreeze:

I know everyone likes the low gas prices but it is costing a lot of people their jobs!


Currently its just hitting the oil industry ...but it's going to impact so much more of our economy in the next few month/year. It's really breaking my heart. I work in an oil industry related job, service industry. I've watched so many people get laid off, fired or taking early retirement packages ...it's truly sad ...so much knowledge will be leaving ...scary times. However this will soon impact other industries ...steel companies, turn key small business companies, seal/rubber companies, bearing companies, etc ...and so on and so forth ...it's going to hit these companies soon.

And really ...have any of us seen a reduction in food prices or airline charges with lower gas prices? Granted, they dont take the same kind of fuel but it all related. Yea, we are all able to drive around and save money ...but when things turn around we will be hit with inflated costs of food or flight due to an increase in energy cost ...never benefiting from the lower fuel costs we now have.

Edit ...and to keep it weather related ...as mentioned last night ...today was glorious ...so few days we have that are as beautiful as today was
Quoting 203. MahFL:

CNN is about 5 seconds behind ABC on their "live" tv transmission, are they that scared of transmitting something bad ?


I would be. No telling coming from that guy.



Goodnight Everyone
Quoting 175. washingtonian115:

The kids had informed me that it is snowing outside with fat flakes and I told them they still have school in the morning.This is the best D.C can muster up this year.


So far!!
Quoting 171. Drakoen:

Snowing here in downtown Silver Spring. Near whiteout conditions.


With a teen on the road driving back from Cheltenham at 8 I was worried about a late squall. But no problems and conditions here in College Park weren't nearly as bad, enough snow to whiten the ground in 10 minutes but then it stopped.


Quoting 181. BahaHurican:

Paid $3.87 / gal here [Bahamas] tonight. It's a real relief from prices nearly twice that high.


$1.95 in MD.
Quoting 211. georgevandenberghe:



With a teen on the road driving back from Cheltenham at 8 I was worried about a late squall. But no problems and conditions here in College Park weren't nearly as bad, enough snow to whiten the ground in 10 minutes but then it stopped.




Yeah, it broke apart on the way to College Park (Unfortunately?).

BaltimoreBrian, did you guys get any snow up there?
Just some flurries and a lot of wind Drakoen.
215. MahFL
Ha !, CNN cut away instantly from a kid that was about to yawn at the SOTU.
Quoting 214. BaltimoreBrian:

Just some flurries and a lot of wind Drakoen.


We're on a full name basis now?
Quoting 215. MahFL:

Ha !, CNN cut away instantly from a kid that was about to yawn at the SOTU.
How old did the kid look? No reason to bring a kid under 10 to SOTU, they'd be bored silly.
Quoting 217. BaltimoreBrian:

How old did the kid look? No reason to bring a kid under 10 to SOTU, they'd be bored silly.


The kid was invited by Mrs. Obama. He started an organization to feed the homeless and has delivered thousands of meals.
Quoting 218. Grothar:



The kid was invited by Mrs. Obama. He started an organization to feed the homeless and has delivered thousands of meals.


He or She who stops to help another is favored by God and the Universe.



By CHIP REID CBS NEWS January 12, 2016, 7:24 PM
Delaware boy is Michelle Obama's guest at State of the Union


First Lady Michelle Obama has invited more than a dozen people to sit with her in the House Chamber on Tuesday night for the State of the Union Address, including a young boy from Bear, Delaware.

In Washington on Tuesday Braeden Mannering, with his mother in tow, had private meetings with the Secretary of Agriculture and his home state Senator, Tom Carper of Delaware.


You might be wondering what a 12-year-old did to earn such special treatment.

Well, it started when he was just 9 years old and entered a recipe in the First Lady's healthy eating contest. He won, and was invited to the Kids State Dinner at the White House where Mrs. Obama challenged him to make a difference in his community.

Two days later, when he saw a homeless man on the street in the rain, inspiration struck.

"I couldn't stop thinking about him and how he could be cold or hungry or tired," said Braeden.

So he put together a bag of food and asked his mother to help him find the man.

"I got out of the car, I gave him the bag and the umbrella and he said thank you, and then I knew what to do," he said.

He knew he had to feed the hungry -- so he created Brae's Brown Bag which so far has distributed 4,600 bags of healthy food.


Braeden Mannering. CBS NEWS

"It makes me feel happy, but at the same time not very happy because I know they're all out there," he said. "But as long as I'm there it'll be good."

His mother Christy is so proud she can hardly believe this is her son.

"People often say, you're doing a great job raising him and I say, he's raising me too," she said.

Braeden said the key is to change how people see the homeless.

"I treat them as if they were my family," he said.

He hopes his seat of honor tonight in Washington will inspire others to feel that way too.

2016 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
--- Removed .gif plus comment, quoted in comment .222 above. It reduces loading time. ---
Quoting 221. 999Ai2016:



Eyewall replacement cycle?

It was mentioned in the Forecast Discussion. I wonder if the EWRC could significantly weaken the storm. Would it then move southwards?
Then he's one of the good ones Grothar.
Quoting 216. Drakoen:

We're on a full name basis now?
Drat, Drak!
Quoting 222.Bobbyweather :

It was mentioned in the Forecast Discussion. I wonder if the EWRC could significantly weaken the storm. Would it then move southwards?

Haven't looked at the recent discussion, but to my rather unexperienced eye it looks like it's ready for it.
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based Advanced Dvorak Technique saw it weaken a little in the last 24 hours, though, for what it's worth.
Quoting 220. Patrap:



He or She who stops to help another is favored by God and the Universe.



By CHIP REID CBS NEWS January 12, 2016, 7:24 PM
Delaware boy is Michelle Obama's guest at State of the Union


First Lady Michelle Obama has invited more than a dozen people to sit with her in the House Chamber on Tuesday night for the State of the Union Address, including a young boy from Bear, Delaware.

In Washington on Tuesday Braeden Mannering, with his mother in tow, had private meetings with the Secretary of Agriculture and his home state Senator, Tom Carper of Delaware.


You might be wondering what a 12-year-old did to earn such special treatment.

Well, it started when he was just 9 years old and entered a recipe in the First Lady's healthy eating contest. He won, and was invited to the Kids State Dinner at the White House where Mrs. Obama challenged him to make a difference in his community.

Two days later, when he saw a homeless man on the street in the rain, inspiration struck.

"I couldn't stop thinking about him and how he could be cold or hungry or tired," said Braeden.

So he put together a bag of food and asked his mother to help him find the man.

"I got out of the car, I gave him the bag and the umbrella and he said thank you, and then I knew what to do," he said.

He knew he had to feed the hungry -- so he created Brae's Brown Bag which so far has distributed 4,600 bags of healthy food.


Braeden Mannering. CBS NEWS

"It makes me feel happy, but at the same time not very happy because I know they're all out there," he said. "But as long as I'm there it'll be good."

His mother Christy is so proud she can hardly believe this is her son.

"People often say, you're doing a great job raising him and I say, he's raising me too," she said.

Braeden said the key is to change how people see the homeless.

"I treat them as if they were my family," he said.

He hopes his seat of honor tonight in Washington will inspire others to feel that way too.

� 2016 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Cool Kid
Models still split between rapid intensification, business as usual or progressive weakening.

Link, with track forecast also.
To those who work for or in support of the oil industry and are hurt by low oil prices, I do have compassion, and I know it's not a completely black and white issue, but at the same time.. it's hard for me to muster too much sympathy because my dream is honestly to see that industry fail completely. I would love to see them not make a single additional dime off oil, and have to make their money some other way, starting today. So even though I know the low prices have nothing to do with my dream, and are some other manipulated BS, and that they won't last, I can't say I'm awfully distraught about it. In fact, I'm glad.

The lower oil prices go, the less incentive they have to extract every last drop out of the ground, by any increasingly destructive means, ignoring any increasing dire consequences. And that, my friends, is a good thing. $1.57 in Tucson, btw.
229. MahFL
Quoting 217. BaltimoreBrian:

How old did the kid look? No reason to bring a kid under 10 to SOTU, they'd be bored silly.


Shame on CNN I say, everyone knows a young kid is going to be bored silly at a SOTU. Grats to the kid for helping people.

Equatorial Central Pacific with Pali skirting the northwest edge of the active El Nino region. Mid latitude storms are gradually dipping further south. A tenuous outflow channel can be seen running from Pali to the tail end of the frontal system about to come across the California coast. Pali even seems to be slightly elongated in the same orientation.
Quoting 129. win1gamegiantsplease:



What month was the '98 tornado outbreak?


It was in February, and this is typical for El Nino events in Florida. Usually January things are just getting started, usually the most significant rainfall and severe producers occur in February through March.

This is also true during non-El Nino years, as the storm track for low pressure systems has a higher chance of being further south during this period. This is where stronger synoptic support and dynamics can interact with the higher heat and moisture available in return flow out ahead of systems.

Quoting 153. islander101010:

betting against a big outbreak of tornadoes over central florida remember it was not until the last week of February that it happened in 98. just not enough warm air.


That's partly true, but it's actually more of the amount of clouds and coverage of competing showers and thunderstorms to be the limiting factor for instability, return flow itself will be warm enough.

The NWS nor the models are calling for a major tornado outbreak, but that doesn't mean forecasts must be all or nothing. It's not expected to be a major event, but it still has the potential to produce some dangerous cells. The main thing that will be tough to call is regarding low level instability. The NWS mentions what I noticed looking at guidance, that rainfall and clouds will likely be too widespread to allow for a significant severe threat, as it doesn't look like a setup where discrete cells will tap into high CAPE. But they note that if instability is higher than forecast, it could be a serious event. Even with lower instability, model guidance still supports a chance of a few severe thunderstorms and or/tornadic cells as shear, low level jet, and upper support parameters are still plenty enough for a chance of a few cells going severe.


Brain's link didn't tell the whole story -

Why are whales beaching themselves by the dozen in India?

Fishermen of a seaside community on the southernmost tip of India worked overnight to rescue dozens of whales that began beaching themselves Monday evening.

The rescuers from Tiruchendur alerted environmental officials shortly after the mysterious mass casualty event began. While about 36 whales were successfully pushed back to sea by fishermen, at least 45 died. The Times of India reports at least 100 short-finned pilot whales were counted along a 10-mile stretch of beach Tuesday, and the fishermen worked throughout the night to save as many of the mammals as they could.


Link
Busy busy :



El Nino setup in the Pacific, with below-average rainfall predicted for Indonesia.
Quoting 210. gulfbreeze:

That doesn't sound true but I could be wrong.
It isn't true. Key sentence from the story -

"Today, the solar industry workforce is bigger than that of oil and gas construction..."

That's much different from the claim that more people work in solar than the oil and gas industry. It's hardly surprising that the solar business has more people working than in oil and gas rig construction given the fact that that part of business has almost ground to a halt after massive layoffs over the last two years.
Last night we hit about 39-40F in my yard. I don't know if there was frost as I wasn't up that early to check:) At 2am, all condensation was still liquid. One can readily observe the urban heat island effect when looking up Orlando on the Wunderground site and taking a look at all the "bubble" temperature plots across the area. Currently, the Orlando area is easily 5-6F higher on average than most non-lakeside rural locations in every direction. Temperatures in the city and burbs are between 46F-53F, whereas temps in rural areas are ranging between 39-46F. This is common here on colder nights with light to calm winds (lights winds are present during the majority of colder nights here in general).

The Orlando Executive Airport was 45F for a low this morning while the Orlando Int'l Airport was 41F and Sanford 39F.
Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39NLon: 84.35WElev: 79ft.

Fair

35F

2C
Humidity 85%
Wind Speed N 3 mph
Barometer 30.22 in (1023.2 mb)
Dewpoint 31F (-1C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 12 Jan 11:53 pm EST


It's another cold crisp night here, and honestly I like it because it makes for great sleeping weather, while we've had bright sunny days with highs in the 50's to near 60. We're expecting another light freeze overnight, as well as overnight tomorrow night.

This morning was the coolest of the winter so far, we bottomed out at 27 for the low and there was widespread frost on many surfaces, including my car. I had to bring out the spatula to scrape ice lol. That isn't unusual though, I usually have to scrape ice at least a a couple times week this time of year since I've been a student. It's not bad when it's sunny and highs warm to the 50's.
Quoting 144. PedleyCA:



Thanks for sharing your disgustingly low gas prices with us on the Left Coast. Last I filled up it was $2.89 at a Circle-K store...
Which shows the effect of tax policy, the general cost of living, and decreased competition. The wholesale cost of gas tonight is a little less that $1.08 a gallon. In most states without high taxes, the retail price will be between $1.48 and $1.58 within a week. I filled up today for $1.59 a gallon, which is still too high for Alabama, It should be more like $1.52. Between taxes and the exorbitant cost of gas tank replacement after the MBTE fiasco, California in general has about 30% less gas stations than 20 years ago. In some urban areas like San Francisco, it's closer to 50% less. There are gas stations on every corner here, and we have regular gas wars when the price starts to drop. The gas station across the street changed the digital sign from $`1.61 to $1.59 as I was filling my tank. There used to be gas stations on every corner and gas wars in California when I moved there in 1966. Those are long forgotten memories for those old enough to have seen it.
Quoting 237. Jedkins01:


Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.39NLon: 84.35WElev: 79ft.

Fair

35F

2C
Humidity 85%
Wind Speed N 3 mph
Barometer 30.22 in (1023.2 mb)
Dewpoint 31F (-1C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 12 Jan 11:53 pm EST


It's another cold crisp night here, and honestly I like it because it makes for great sleeping weather, while we've had bright sunny days with highs in the 50's to near 60.

This morning was the coolest of the winter so far, we bottomed out at 27 and there was widespread frost on many surfaces, including my car. I had to bring out the spatula to scrape ice lol. That isn't unusual though, I usually have to scrape ice at least a a couple times week this time of year since I've been a student. It's not bad when it's sunny and highs warm to the 50's.
It's actually a little warmer up here, especially compared to last night. It was 31 degrees at 2300 then and 36 now. The low hit 25. We've had a wind shift to the south as the next shortwave approaches but it appears this one will be entirely dry. It should bring a reinforcing shot of cold air with it, and Wednesday night should also be cold. Should have warm up by Thursday, with enough warm air Thursday night to keep any wintry precipitation at bay. Next Tuesday looks more interesting for snow lovers. We should have a deep, cold air mass in place with a Gulf low forecast to undercut the cold air. Of course, it's not unusual for models seven days out to predict more cold than what actually arrives, so we'll see how this one plays out. The third week in January has been an active time for winter weather here in the past.
Sar2401, the sentence is true. There are more people working in solar than on oil and gas rigs. Employment in refineries and gas stations is much higher. Along with natural gas utilities.
Quoting 238. sar2401:

Which shows the effect of tax policy, the general cost of living, and decreased competition. The wholesale cost of gas tonight is a little less that $1.08 a gallon. In most states without high taxes, the retail price will be between $1.48 and $1.58 within a week. I filled up today for $1.59 a gallon, which is still too high for Alabama, It should be more like $1.52. Between taxes and the exorbitant cost of gas tank replacement after the MBTE fiasco, California in general has about 30% less gas stations than 20 years ago. In some urban areas like San Francisco, it's closer to 50% less. There are gas stations on every corner here, and we have regular gas wars when the price starts to drop. The gas station across the street changed the digital sign from $`1.61 to $1.59 as I was filling my tank. There used to be gas stations on every corner and gas wars in California when I moved there in 1966. Those are long forgotten memories for those old enough to have seen it.
just to show you how old I am I remember gas wars in the 60's with gas at 19 cents!
Quoting 65. PlazaRed:


500 might be a bit high but 450 will certainly be possible if not inevitable the way things are going. With gas prices at $30 a barrel and dropping then the whole world will be using gas like there is no tomorrow, which in some cases may be true.

Meanwhile about a 3rd of US oil companies might drift into bankruptcy soon as they can not create enough cash to service their debts.

Over a million new cars registered in Spain last year and who knows how many trucks etc?
All burning gas flat out. While old cars tend to drive only locally, new cars are often used on long journeys so more gas needed there and with prices down by about 40% recently on gas its even becoming cheap at about only $4 a gallon here in our area.
450 ppm probably is the most it could be by 2030 based on the present trend, *but* that assumes natural CO2 sources and sinks cooperate. ATM tropical forest boreal forests/peatlands and permafrost are very much headed in the wrong direction, especially the latter. Potentially any of them could scale up quickly. The oceans and soil are big wild cards, without a major trend as yet but capable of catastrophic emissions.
Has anyone else taken the WU survey yet? I don't know if it's offered to everyone or just the lucky few...like me. I bit, but that dang thing takes about a half hour to complete, and it's a really confusing mess. Some of the questions made me a little nervous about where WU is heading. Would you like more fashion/beauty news? How about more music videos? I thought they might ask some questions about the actual web site, like it it slow and not well organized, but, no, just more questions about music videos. After a half hour of my life I'll never get back, I am now eligible for a major award! Yes, a $100 Amazon gift card! They went all out for that. Don't the rest of you take that survey though. I'm feeling lucky tonight. :-)
Pali:

I don't see any major change in intensity in the last hours. I'd bet on a new, decent eyewall soon, but it's hard to tell, with the cyclone so close to the equator.
Quoting 240. BaltimoreBrian:

Sar2401, the sentence is true. There are more people working in solar than on oil and gas rigs. Employment in refineries and gas stations is much higher. Along with natural gas utilities.
Not true unless you have independent evidence that it is true. The story only made the claim about those working in oil and gas rig construction. It didn't state anything about the number of people working in the actual rigs and fields. I will certainly concede the point if you can find the evidence. What I can find states it was about 1.2 million in 2011 for all the upstream workers, including offshore rigs. Might be a little less now, but nowhere near as low as 206,000, the number quoted for everyone employed in the solar industry.
Quoting 239. sar2401:

It's actually a little warmer up here, especially compared to last night. It was 31 degrees at 2300 then and 36 now. The low hit 25. We've had a wind shift to the south as the next shortwave but it appears this one will be entirely dry. It should bring a reinforcing shot of cold air with it, and Wednesday night should also be cold. Should have warm up by Thursday, with enough warm air Thursday night to keep any wintry precipitation at bay. Next Tuesday looks more interesting for snow lovers. We should have a deep, cold air mass in place with a Gulf low forecast to undercut the cold air. Of course, it's not unusual for models seven days out to predict more cold than what actually arrives, so we'll see how this one plays out. The third week in January has been an active time for winter weather here in the past.


It's interesting that the low here was only a couple degrees warmer than up there. Based on what you've mentioned, we might end up getting a bit colder here, the high center is probably more established here if you're starting to get some weak return flow.

Regarding the winter precip potential, yeah you're right. I'd say the GFS always shows us getting down into the mid teens in this area at least once or twice in the far extended guidance, and it usually gives us snow in a 10-14 day forecast at least couple times a winter, even though neither one happen every year, though lows in the teens happen a lot more often here than snow historically.. Overall hat's no surprise given the error of long term guidance, which is good for looking at patterns, not actual values.

It's worth keeping an eye on though.
Quoting 241. gulfbreeze:

just to show you how old I am I remember gas wars in the 60's with gas at 19 cents!
As do I. The lowest I remember paying was 18 cents during a big gas war in Los Angeles in the late 60's. I got a free drinking glass along with the gas. My little MGB tank held about 12 gallons, so that fill up cost me all of $2.04. It wasn't until the Arab oil embargo in 1973 that I ever had to crack a $5 bill to fill up. I used to normally pay about a quarter a gallon until then. Before we all get too misty eyed for times gone by, a quarter adjusted for inflation from 1968 is now worth about $1.72, so I got my gas tonight for 13 cents less than the typical price I paid in 1968. No free drinking glass though.
Quoting 247. sar2401:

As do I. The lowest I remember paying was 18 cents during a big gas war in Los Angeles in the late 60's. I got a free drinking glass along with the gas. My little MGB tank held about 12 gallons, so that fill up cost me all of $2.04. It wasn't until the Arab oil embargo in 1973 that I ever had to crack a $5 bill to fill up. I used to normally pay about a quarter a gallon until then. Before we all get too misty eyed for times gone by, a quarter adjusted for inflation from 1968 is now worth about $1.72, so I got my gas tonight for 13 cents less than the typical price I paid in 1968. No free drinking glass though.


I still use a set of silverware (pretty decent) that came one fork etc per fill-up.
Quoting 246. Jedkins01:



It's interesting that the low here was only a couple degrees warmer than up there. Based on what you've mentioned, we might end up getting a bit colder here, the high center is probably more established here if you're starting to get some weak return flow.

Regarding the winter precip potential, yeah you're right. I'd say the GFS always shows us getting down into the mid teens in this area at least once or twice in the far extended guidance, and it usually gives us snow in a 10-14 day forecast at least couple times a winter, even though neither one happen every year, though lows in the teens happen a lot more often here than snow historically.. Overall hat's no surprise given the error of long term guidance, which is good for looking at patterns, not actual values.

It's worth keeping an eye on though.
The return flow is definitely cranking up. I'm up to 38 since that that post at 2313. Sorry about the military time, but everything I have reports time that way, from my watch to my computer, so I hate translating it back into non-metric time, or whatever it's called. At any rate, I think we get earlier and stronger return flow from the Gulf than down there, at least until a low gets a lot closer to you. With the Gulf being so relatively warm this winter, even my present 4 mph SSW wind is enough to start the temperatures upward. It's something I keep an eagle eye on when we get those strong winter Plains lows diving south while a Gulf low is forming. I don't know what the signal for trouble is down there, but rising temperatures at night when we have that condition is never a good sign for me.
- Himawari-8 loop of the day (Pali, .gif):
Link

- Strange news :
1/11/2016 : "Georgia's security agency said Monday it has arrested three men suspected of peddling radioactive cesium, the latest in a series of operations against nuclear smugglers in the ex-Soviet nation. The agency said Monday that the men were arrested in the capital, Tbilisi, while trying to sell an unspecified amount of cesium-137 for $100,000. It didn't say when the arrest was made or give any other details. Cesium-137, a byproduct of nuclear reactors, is used for various medical and industrial purposes. Georgia and some other ex-Soviet nations have seen numerous attempts at contraband trade in radioactive substances. There have been fears that if such materials fall in the hands of extremists, they could be used in a "dirty bomb," a device intended to contaminate large areas using conventional explosives. Georgia has relied on assistance from the U.S. to combat nuclear smuggling. Georgian law enforcement agencies have arrested dozens of suspected traders in radioactive substances over the past several years."
Link
01/12/16 : "A U.S. Navy fighter pilot safely ejected before a plane crashed in northern Nevada during a training mission in a remote mountain area about 90 miles east of Reno. (...) Rescue crews safely recovered the pilot after the FA-18A Hornet went down about 8:30 a.m. They said in a statement that the pilot - who was not identified - was being evaluated for potential injuries at a local hospital. (...)"
Link
Quoting 247. sar2401:

As do I. The lowest I remember paying was 18 cents during a big gas war in Los Angeles in the late 60's. I got a free drinking glass along with the gas. My little MGB tank held about 12 gallons, so that fill up cost me all of $2.04. It wasn't until the Arab oil embargo in 1973 that I ever had to crack a $5 bill to fill up. I used to normally pay about a quarter a gallon until then. Before we all get too misty eyed for times gone by, a quarter adjusted for inflation from 1968 is now worth about $1.72, so I got my gas tonight for 13 cents less than the typical price I paid in 1968. No free drinking glass though.

Our lowest prices in 1966 were about 25 cents during gas wars, usually a few cents more, and they used to have an attendant pump the gas and clean your windows, too. My friends and I used to hang-out at one gas station when we were fifteen years old, and we pumped the gas for customers without pay. When we wiped the windows clean, the ladies would point to the spot we had missed, until we got it perfect! In lieu of payment, the owner would let us work on our own or our friends' cars at the service station. All gas stations were service stations in those days.
Quoting 248. SunnyDaysFla:



I still use a set of silverware (pretty decent) that came one fork etc per fill-up.
LOL. I still have a couple of juice glasses from that era too. I wonder if they're worth anything on ebay? Probably not, since the oil companies must have contracted for zillions of those things. Most of the giveaways were for things women wanted like glasses, silverware, and plates. I know my wife used to make me stop at the station that was giving away the last glasses she need to make a set. The best giveaway for guys I remember was a box wrench for 10 gallons. They were decent quality tools too, and I think there was about 12 different sizes of wrenches in the set. There was a different one each week, and you could buy a steel rack for them for 50 cents if you wanted to hang them on a wall. None of that furrin metric stuff either. They are, unfortunately, scattered to the four winds of lost tooldom now.
Quoting 251. ChiThom:


Our lowest prices in 1966 were about 25 cents during gas wars, usually a few cents more, and they used to have an attendant pump the gas and clean your windows, too. My friends and I used to hang-out at one gas station when we were fifteen years old, and we pumped the gas for customers without pay. When we wiped the windows clean, the ladies would point to the spot we had missed, until we got it perfect! In lieu of payment, the owner would let us work on our own or our friends' cars at the service station. All gas stations were service stations in those days.
I think L.A. was the mecca of low gas prices in the sixties. I remember reading even then how low our gas prices were compared to everywhere but the oil patch. Something seems to have gone haywire in L.A. since then. Remember, we used to get the oil checked, the windshield washer filled up, and the "real" service stations even put air in the tires and water in the battery if they needed it. I used to have all my work done down the street at Phil's Associated station, a brand that I think was unique to California. The owner, Jerry, ( I don't know what happened to Phil) told me he made almost no money from gas, and sometimes no money in the middle of a hot gas war. He made his profit from servicing cars. All that service was a good way for Jerry and the boys to look under the hood and notice a frayed fan belt or leaking radiator hose. It was a good deal all the way around and, like most good deals, it didn't have very much longer to run.

P.S. I used to give the gas station kids that were really good a dime after they got through checking everything on the car. I was a big tipper in those days. :-)
When it went back up to $0.25, many people got mad!

Quoting 241. gulfbreeze:

just to show you how old I am I remember gas wars in the 60's with gas at 19 cents!
From prior blog Quoting 268. olivojoe:

Funny you say that......

I am a Civil Engineer. Although my specialty is not hydraulics, I do remember several things from school about the topic. There is still a significant amount of water retained on concrete surfaces, rooftops, etc. and remember these surfaces are likely much better heat sinks that open terrain. So when the water sits on these "hotter" surfaces, evaporation would be accelerated.

And although you are correct that a large amount of this water is drained off from these surfaces, it still absorbs some of the heat from the structures and surfaces during runoff and as a result, raising the temperatures in the staging ponds and potentially further increasing evaporation of that water instead of it being absorbed.

As I said though, speculative thought on my part, which is why I was asking if anyone has ever come across a study on this topic.

OK, to my knowledge this is such a well-established fact that it is no longer an interesting research topic in science, but rather more interesting in terms of long-term effects on aquifer recharge and increasing saline intrusion, really more interesting in setting boundaries on flood-zones and fixing insurance rates. There is a good reason for FEMA's No Rise policy. Just apply conservation of mass. In any areas with significant vegetation there is a lot more surface area, and there is the effect of evapo-transpiration, while on pavement and concrete there is predominantly just evaporation. Urban heat island effect tends to enhance passing convection, for example: Urban, Topographic and Diurnal Effects on Rainfall in the St. Louis Region, but that due to locally enhanced convection, not increased urban evaporation. Run-off in developed areas far exceeds that of previously natural areas. See, for example, www.coastal.ca.gov/nps/watercyclefacts.pdf. That poster-paper gives the following changes in water cycle balance with respect to impervious surface area:

Natural Surface-40%:evapo-transpiration,25%:shallow-infilt ration,25%:deep-infiltration,10%:run-off.

10-20% Impervious Surface-38%:evapo-transpiration,21%:shallow-infilt ration,21%:deep-infiltration,20%:run-off.

30-50% Impervious Surface-35%:evapo-transpiration,20%:shallow-infilt ration,15%:deep-infiltration,30%:run-off.

75-100% Impervious Surface-30%:evapo-transpiration,10%:shallow-infilt ration,05%:deep-infiltration,55%:run-off.

I take the above values as more like rules-of-thumb, as the precise balance will obviously vary between different natural surface type (e.g. marshes vs forests vs desert), but the general principle holds. Here is a study that includes the initial land-cover types: web.pdx.edu/~nauna/articles/Owen_etal_1998.pdf This paper highlights the advantages in proper urban planning and including more "green spaces" in urban areas.

The biggest negative effect is on ground-water recharge, but evapo-transpiration is reduced as the degree of urbanization increases. Here is another study of long-term effects on the water cycle in Leipzig due to increasing urbanization, with plenty of peer-reviewed references, showing the same trends: reduced evapo-transpiration over urban areas, but especially increased run-off and non-sustainable reduced recharge of groundwater: geo.science.unideb.hu/acta/landsenv/dokument/volu mes/vol2iss22008/6.pdf
Hope this helps.
Quoting 253. sar2401:

I think L.A. was the mecca of low gas prices in the sixties. I remember reading even then how low our gas prices were compared to everywhere but the oil patch. Something seems to have gone haywire in L.A. since then. Remember, we used to get the oil checked, the windshield washer filled up, and the "real" service stations even put air in the tires and water in the battery if they needed it. I used to have all my work done down the street at Phil's Associated station, a brand that I think was unique to California. The owner, Jerry, ( I don't know what happened to Phil) told me he made almost no money from gas, and sometimes no money in the middle of a hot gas war. He made his profit from servicing cars. All that service was a good way for Jerry and the boys to look under the hood and notice a frayed fan belt or leaking radiator hose. It was a good deal all the way around and, like most good deals, it didn't have very much longer to run.


Now they need to plug in for an electronic diagnosis. Puts the little guy out of the market pretty much.
Quoting 250. 999Ai2016:

- Himawari-8 loop of the day (Pali, .gif):
Link

- Strange news, 01/11/2016:
"Georgia's security agency said Monday it has arrested three men suspected of peddling radioactive cesium, the latest in a series of operations against nuclear smugglers in the ex-Soviet nation. The agency said Monday that the men were arrested in the capital, Tbilisi, while trying to sell an unspecified amount of cesium-137 for $100,000. It didn't say when the arrest was made or give any other details. Cesium-137, a byproduct of nuclear reactors, is used for various medical and industrial purposes. Georgia and some other ex-Soviet nations have seen numerous attempts at contraband trade in radioactive substances. There have been fears that if such materials fall in the hands of extremists, they could be used in a "dirty bomb," a device intended to contaminate large areas using conventional explosives. Georgia has relied on assistance from the U.S. to combat nuclear smuggling. Georgian law enforcement agencies have arrested dozens of suspected traders in radioactive substances over the past several years."
Link
Golly, I wonder who would want radioactive contraband? Iceland? Costa Rica? It's so hard to tell nowadays.
Just a thought.
Doesn't lower gas prices also allow consumers to buy other items with the extra money, thus spreading
the money to different areas helping the economy?
Quoting 256. SunnyDaysFla:



Now they need to plug in for an electronic diagnosis. Puts the little guy out of the market pretty much.
Yes. I used to be able to look at an engine and pretty much tell what everything did. Now, it's like they are all sideways and everything is made of plastic. We still do have two service garages left in town. Ironically, they are both in former gas stations. They plug the car in and fix or replace what the computer tells them to. There are still a few old-timers left who can do diagnostics when it gets difficult, but I think most of them wouldn't notice if the starter motor was about to fall off when they replace a battery.
Ocean current in Gulf of Mexico linked to red tide :
Link
Tough times for the tree of life on coral reefs, January 12, 2016:
Link
Makes you wonder?
Told the wife I could replace the battery, and she looked at me and said "really?"
The newer cars are affected by the "weather", and adjust to run differently when subjected to changes in elevation.
Back in the 60's, we used to have to adjust the carburetor jets when traveling to high elevations.

Quoting 259. sar2401:

Yes. I used to be able to look at an engine and pretty much tell what everything did. Now, it's like they are all sideways and everything is made of plastic. We still do have two service garages left in town. Ironically, they are both in former gas stations. They plug the car in and fix or replace what the computer tells them to. There are still a few old-timers left who can do diagnostics when it gets difficult, but I think most of them wouldn't notice if the starter motor was about to fall off when they replace a battery.
Quoting 210. gulfbreeze:

That doesn't sound true but I could be wrong.


My son was involved is the solar industry for a while, my grandson still is, sort of. It's Electrical Union work, they work for a while, then wait a long time for their number to come up on the books again so they can get another job. This would tend to inflate the numbers of workers, lots of them are doing something else most of the time, waiting for their turn at the solar job again.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
935 PM PST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST IN
THE VALLEYS AND DESERTS. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THAT SAID...THE WEATHER
WILL BE QUIET FOR SOCAL WITH WHATS LEFT OF THESE SYSTEMS WASHING OUT
BEFORE REACHING OUR REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND PERIODIC
BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzz
Atlantic system (composite, day microphysics) :

Link for larger pic, loop & other products.
Talking about gas station give-aways ... in 1973, Shell gas stations were handing out Hot Wheels cars! HWs had only been out for 5 years and they had sales peak in about the 3rd year. Sales were starting to slump with the way they had flooded the market, and Mattel was actually considering stopping making Hot Wheels entirely ... imagine that! Instead they really economized in how they made the cars, cheaper paint, less moving parts. I was 8 years old when they first came out in 1968, and I have several hundred cars from the first four years. No interest in any after they because they changed so much.

Keeping things weather-related ... Here in the Tampa area, we finally dropped to 41 degrees yesterday morning, and my tomatoes are finally starting to produce. December was still pretty much too hot for them ... crazy weather here. Our area normally doubles in population for the winter months, and I would estimate that we are shy of that by a full third, going by how business and traffic is right now. A warm fall and the Canadian dollar getting out of synch with ours are a couple of factors.
268. MahFL
Quoting 243. sar2401:

Has anyone else taken the WU survey yet?


I tried but it crashed on me.
Quoting 267. Gearsts:


This is Alex no doubt.
Quoting 258. swflurker:

Just a thought.
Doesn't lower gas prices also allow consumers to buy other items with the extra money, thus spreading
the money to different areas helping the economy?
Having extra money in the consumers' pockets definitely helps a bit but the detrimental aspect of such low gas prices is that American oil does not sell when it can be imported for so much cheaper. Once oil drops below the price we can manufacture it for then our oil businesses go out of business
Quoting 270. Andrebrooks:

This is Alex no doubt.


Convection at dead centre. Nice. I thought he was subtropical since yesterday midday, but this guy's done it now.
never will do another survey anykind. last one i did was about 5 yrs ago name address was on it. big hardware store. the survey was mailed to el paso. alittle more digging. from there it was bulk shipped to Mexico for processing. happy weather today.
Quoting 268. MahFL:



I tried but it crashed on me.


Took forever, but did achive success.. :)
Quoting 259. sar2401:

Yes. I used to be able to look at an engine and pretty much tell what everything did. Now, it's like they are all sideways and everything is made of plastic. We still do have two service garages left in town. Ironically, they are both in former gas stations. They plug the car in and fix or replace what the computer tells them to. There are still a few old-timers left who can do diagnostics when it gets difficult, but I think most of them wouldn't notice if the starter motor was about to fall off when they replace a battery.


It's like any other technology. Computers were the same way. Look at all the utility programs that exist for them today. Look at all the self-diagnostic code that is present on pretty much all components. When was the last time you had manually configure IRQs? Thirty years ago you REALLY had to understand computers and their hardware in order to be a good tech, and people WANTED good techs because computers and just about anything else related to them was so expensive. Now, we have "Geek Squad Techs". *shakes head*
NWS Ruskin is thinking the dynamics are in place for strong to severe storms Thursday night / Friday for West Central Fl. Could be interesting.
Good Morning; pending an update from NHC on the Atlantic low (7:00 discussion below),
it looks impressive. Now the big question is a) tropical low?; b) sub-tropical low?;
c) will "Alex" be named?.

I don't have a clue........................




TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 989 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25.5N34W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N37W AND
32N30W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N30W TO 30N28W
20N30W 14N40W 13N50W AND 14N66W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 19 FEET OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 240 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 25N34W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 08N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
23W AND 45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE CANARY
ISLANDS.
90L appears to have more convection near the center.

The winds are already gale force.

What more will it take for this system to become a Subtropical storm?



Quoting 281. Stormwatch247:

90L appears to have more convection near the center.

The winds are already gale force.

What more will it take for this system to become a Subtropical storm?



Based on the current look, movement, and temperature gradients (moving away from the warmer waters), my vote is for sub-tropical storm Alex being declared by NHC by this afternoon (their 2:00 pm update or earlier based on satt imagery).
The core has done a nice job firing convection over the center even through the low is sucking in dry air into the broad circulation:

It will have been at least 5 years since the AO has went this far negative. NAO forecast be begative for some time , MJO will be in our vicinity..Recipe for storms...Big ones..

Quoting 285. JrWeathermanFL:


This has to be Alex. I'm giving it a 90/90 chance of development.

Who thinks this is Alex? I do. Look at those defined features.
Quoting 286. Andrebrooks:

This has to be Alex. I'm giving it a 90/90 chance of development.
If it can wrap that convection around then center, I believe the NHC will classify it.
Quoting 284. hydrus:

It will have been at least 5 years since the AO has went this far negative. NAO forecast be begative for some time , MJO will be in our vicinity..Recipe for storms...Big ones..




Bring em on
Quoting 288. hydrus:

If it can wrap that convection around then center, I believe the NHC will classify it.
Thinking the same thing.
Quoting 288. hydrus:

If it can wrap that convection around then center, I believe the NHC will classify it.



there have only been 2 tropical storms and 1 hurricane in the month of january going back 165 years.....
Quoting 287. Andrebrooks:


Who thinks this is Alex? I do. Look at those defined features.


A little more sustained convection at the center is all it needs at this point, everything else is in place.
Quoting 291. ricderr:




there have only been 2 tropical storms and 1 hurricane in the month of january going back 165 years.....

Greetings Ric...I believe there have been a couple more, we just didnt have the ability to detect them..jmo
Will they phase.?

HURRICANE PALI ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI - CP01 2016 500 AM HST WED JAN 13 2016

...PALI WEAKENING FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK:
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.8 WEST. PALI IS MOVINGTOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THESOUTHWEST LATER TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST BYFRIDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

Complete discussion, rather interesting :
(Link)
287. Andrebrooks
9:50 AM EST on January 13, 2016

That is clearly Alex and if it would have been near the gom it would have been named by now.It reminds me of Grace from 2009
Quoting 284. hydrus:

It will have been at least 5 years since the AO has went this far negative. NAO forecast be begative for some time , MJO will be in our vicinity..Recipe for storms...Big ones..




The ECMWF has retracted its climb of the AO as it seems to have a bias (noted by Ryan Maue) towards positive AO in it's medium range. I think the ensembles are climbing the AO a bit to quickly.
Quoting 297. Drakoen:



The ECMWF has retracted its climb of the AO as it seems to have a bias (noted by Ryan Maue) towards positive AO in it's medium range. I think the ensembles are climbing the AO a bit to quickly.
Good morning Drak..Any thoughts on the Nor,Easter showing up in a few days.? People are wondering if it will be rain, ice, or snow...I believe a wintry mix with a lot of wind.


Convection looks fully wrapped around the center, I'm with Andre on this one. This should be Alex.
Quoting 296. washingtonian115:

287. Andrebrooks
9:50 AM EST on January 13, 2016

That is clearly Alex and if it would have been near the gom it would have been named by now.It reminds me of Grace from 2009



Yup. Alex at 11am do you think? There have been much worse storms getting names, and I think this low gets one based on what it was able to achieve in JANUARY, much less far to the north and east AND in a strong El Niño.

Structurally though, this is Alex, waiting for the convection to increase is absurd, considering it is wrapped around now and the LLC is clearly defined. More than meets the criteria, in my opinion.

This is awesome, Pali as well, what a start to 2016.
Have to admit that moderately warm waters are helping with the firing-convection over the center; point being that this is not a fully warm cored system, and moving up into cooler waters, but close to it (if the movement was further down towards the SE or SW, I believe it could have made the transition to tropical)................Most sub-tropical storms look ragged, but this one has very nice structure which is a function of the lower latitude location (not getting fully caught caught up in the North Atlantic jet yet):




Quoting 300. LostTomorrows:



Yup. Alex at 11am do you think? There have been much worse storms getting names, and I think this low gets one based on what it was able to achieve in JANUARY, much less far to the north and east AND in a strong El Niño.

Structurally though, this is Alex, waiting for the convection to increase is absurd, considering it is wrapped around now and the LLC is clearly defined. More than meets the criteria, in my opinion.

This is awesome, Pali as well, what a start to 2016.
All depends on if the NHC decides to pull the trigger.But this looks better than some of the hurricanes that were classified back in 2014.
Quoting 298. hydrus:

Good morning Drak..Any thoughts on the Nor,Easter showing up in a few days.? People are wondering if it will be rain, ice, or snow...I believe a wintry mix with a lot of wind.


Rain is most likely. The southerly flow associated low pressure system tracking up into the Great Lakes will carry with it warm air all the way up to the Canadian border so that when the secondary forms off the coast there is not cold air behind the low to promote anything but rainfall unless you are in the deep elevated interior and Maine of course.
Alex will likely be given a "near 100%" chance of development at its 1-2PM advisory, and will be named at 4PM.



SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated
and organized near the center of a non-tropical low pressure system
centered about 1100 miles southwest of the Azores. The low is
producing winds to near 60 mph over the southern and eastern
portions of its circulation. Although environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive for development, this system could become
a subtropical or tropical storm within the next day or so. The
cyclone is expected to move eastward to northeastward over the
eastern subtropical Atlantic over the next couple of days.
Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system
is expected to produce hazardous marine conditions over portions of
the eastern Atlantic for the next few days. For additional
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and Meteo France. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 2 PM EST Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
Hurricane season has begun. Welcome to 2016. The season began in January.
Quoting 305. hydrus:




SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated
and organized near the center of a non-tropical low pressure system
centered about 1100 miles southwest of the Azores. The low is
producing winds to near 60 mph over the southern and eastern
portions of its circulation. Although environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive for development, this system could become
a subtropical or tropical storm within the next day or so. The
cyclone is expected to move eastward to northeastward over the
eastern subtropical Atlantic over the next couple of days.
Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system
is expected to produce hazardous marine conditions over portions of
the eastern Atlantic for the next few days. For additional
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and Meteo France. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 2 PM EST Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent



That's nearly a day old though.
Quoting 306. RitaEvac:

Hurricane season has begun. Welcome to 2016. The season began in January.


Now watch us not get Bonnie until August...
Quoting 308. HurricaneFan:



Now watch us not get Bonnie until August...
Given that the waters near the S.E coast are the warmest on record and climo favors storms in June to form closer to the U.S don't be surprised if shear decreases we get a quick pop up T.S
Even if 2016 is a "Cold AMO", it still could be a very active Atlantic hurricane season because Western Atlantic waters are warmer than ever. We just likely won't have as much MDR development. But that's not good for the U.S.
Quoting 259. sar2401:

Yes. I used to be able to look at an engine and pretty much tell what everything did. Now, it's like they are all sideways and everything is made of plastic. We still do have two service garages left in town. Ironically, they are both in former gas stations. They plug the car in and fix or replace what the computer tells them to. There are still a few old-timers left who can do diagnostics when it gets difficult, but I think most of them wouldn't notice if the starter motor was about to fall off when they replace a battery.


THis frustrates me also. I used to be able to work on my 1970 toyota (bought 1977 for $1300 and
my only car until 1988) but now engines are much more complex. The upside though is cars have gotten much more reliable since the 70s and last longer too. 100K miles used to be an achievement, now I expect cars to make it to 250-300K miles easily. Something always happens before I get that far (stolen, accident, needs change so traded in) One lemon minivan just died at 80K as in "I'm not driving this ^&**( thing anymore.. that's the last straw" after needing new alternator, brakes (which then failed again a year later), window/door electrical .. .. .. .. .. .. transmission (fortunately died in the driveway rather than the boonies) but every other car has been great.
Quoting 309. washingtonian115:

Given that the waters near the S.E coast are the warmest on record and climo favors storms in June to form closer to the U.S don't be surprised if shear decreases we get a quick pop up T.S


My two hopes are that my mid May fishing trip in the Bahamas doesn't get impacted, and that any storms don't go up the eastern seaboard taking out my house in the process.

An inactive season would be just great!!!
Quiet morning on the NE Gulf Coast.. looking at Destin from Blue Mountain Beach...
Quoting 308. HurricaneFan:



Now watch us not get Bonnie until August...

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!! :)
Oh the 12z GFS sure is interesting....

This looks better than some tropical storms I've seen. I think it's at least subtropical. Good convection around center and no sign of fronts.

Three scenarios:

A) This gets classified at 5 PM.
B) It gets classified in post-season reanalysis.
C) It doesn't get classified at all and everyone turns to drinking to get their spirits up.
Quoting 316. VAbeachhurricanes:

Oh the 12z GFS sure is interesting....




This looks like the first legitimate threat for the south and the Mid-Atlantic. It's not that far out (only 4 days as opposed to 10) and good model consistency between the OP and Para GFS. The trend with the storm nudging farther west is also good. Would not take much for this to be blockbuster.
Quoting 320. Drakoen:



This looks like the first legitimate threat for the south and the Mid-Atlantic. It's not that far out (only 4 days as opposed to 10) and good model consistency between the OP and Para GFS. The trend with the storm nudging farther west is also good. Would not take much for this to be blockbuster.


I've been hoping for some wintry precipitation even as far south as where I live, but I just don't know if air temperatures are going to be cold enough, plus I can see us dealing with an inversion after a day or so of return flow from that surface low.
Quoting 294. hydrus:

Will they phase.?


its a wrap up
Quoting 317. Grothar:



Lol, who believes in the UK track ?
I do.
NHC should come out and named this thing. they have been too conservative in the past,

ALEX will be there with first advisory at 2pm,
Quoting 325. stoormfury:

NHC should come out and named this thing. they have been too conservative in the past,



You would've had a heart attack during the 90s.
CZECH REPUBLIC'S CAPITOL - RECORD HOTTEST YEAR (AGAIN): 2015 and 2014 tied as the record hottest calendar years in Prague, where records go back to 1775. The record coldest calendar year there is 1871.
seems like some weather moving in soon over se heading ne



not possible,i take Beta Blockers
Whats in a name?

It affects nothing but Human thought.

Humans are funny.

: P

Quoting 326. KoritheMan:



You would've had a heart attack during the 90s.


lol
or no hair left
Quoting 301. weathermanwannabe:

Have to admit that moderately warm waters are helping with the firing-convection over the center; point being that this is not a fully warm cored system, and moving up into cooler waters, but close to it (if the movement was further down towards the SE or SW, I believe it could have made the transition to tropical)................Most sub-tropical storms look ragged, but this one has very nice structure which is a function of the lower latitude location (not getting fully caught caught up in the North Atlantic jet yet):


I believe the main driver of systems like this, tropical and subtropical especially, is not so much sea surface temperatures as temperature differential between sea and air, and vertically in the air column. That difference drives the convection that organizes the system. So cooler SSTs in a cooler air air mass should behave about the same as warmer SSTs in a warmer air mass with similar temperature differential. In addition the heat of condensation as the clouds build in the center of the storm helps drive the convection just as it does in a tropical system. How do you define "warm core"?

POSS T.C.F.W.
90L/INV/STS/A/CX
Arctic just keeps on blowing my mind everyday with this prolonged region-wide high-end temp anomaly.

Excellent didactic piece , thanks !


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 989 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25.5N34W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N37W AND
32N30W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N30W TO 30N28W
20N30W 14N40W 13N50W AND 14N66W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 19 FEET OVER FORECAST WATERS
WITHIN 240 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 25N34W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 08N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
23W AND 45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE CANARY
ISLANDS.
Quoting 325. stoormfury:

NHC should come out and named this thing. they have been too conservative in the past,

ALEX will be there with first advisory at 2pm,


He's already there

GFS is a dream come true.
Just want to share this warning from the NWS Melbourne Florida.......stay alert Friday folks............................................. ....................THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
AREA WARRANTS CLOSE ATTENTION AS AN EPISODE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AND FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND OR LOCAL WARNINGS
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
Quoting 322. KoritheMan:



I've been hoping for some wintry precipitation even as far south as where I live, but I just don't know if air temperatures are going to be cold enough, plus I can see us dealing with an inversion after a day or so of return flow from that surface low.


May be a little hard that far south, but northern portions of Louisiana could get in on this. Maybe a road trip is in order.
I am heading up to Charlotte for the Seahawks/Panthers game which is at 1pm

Not only after the game I have to get back on the road to head home..

I dont like the trends the GFS is showing with bring back the rain/snow..currently the only model showing this solution..every other model has the system moving out quick and only cold weather to deal with and no precip



BBC, 28 minutes ago.
Moscow, the capital of Russia, is currently in the grip of a major snow storm.

"Such heavy snow could bring normal life in the UK to a standstill but not in Moscow.
The locals are used to extreme winter weather and the city has 15,000 snow ploughs and trucks standing by to help keep the city moving. Steve Rosenberg, the BBC's Moscow correspondent, showed us some of the amazing machines keeping Moscow up and running."
(Link)
Well here we go, the map of 90L on the 13th of Jan!



The wind map looks very good for it as well:-

Link
Quoting 343. PlazaRed:

Well here we go, the map of 90L on the 13th of Jan!



The wind map looks very good for it as well:-

Link


If we get a named system from 90L by Friday, it will be my first named Atlantic Storm to have on my B-day Jan 15th.

That would break down to a 1 in 56 years ratio for me.

Quoting 332. CaneFreeCR:

I believe the main driver of systems like this, tropical and subtropical especially, is not so much sea surface temperatures as temperature differential between sea and air, and vertically in the air column. That difference drives the convection that organizes the system. So cooler SSTs in a cooler air air mass should behave about the same as warmer SSTs in a warmer air mass with similar temperature differential. In addition the heat of condensation as the clouds build in the center of the storm helps drive the convection just as it does in a tropical system. How do you define "warm core"?

The key difference between the cooler and warmer convective storms (not referring to cold versus warm core here) is that the cooler storm has much less moisture such that precipitation dries it out more easily, putting more dense air and less latent heat into the mix which works against the maintenance of the storm.

The convection in 90L could also be driven by dynamic lifting as air is squeezed up by converging inflows and corresponding divergence aloft.

The terms cold core and warm core refer to the direction of temperature change as you move toward the storm center.
Quoting 344. Patrap:



If we get a named system from 90L by Friday, it will be my first named Atlantic Storm to have on my B-day Jan 15th.

That would break down to a 1 in 56 years ratio for me.



Quite amazing to think and possibly see an Atlantic hurricane forming north of the Cape Verde Islands before mid January.
Of course the "Nuevo Latharge" will say its a freak, or a one off in a hundred years, in fact a "100 year" cane. Then again as nobody reading this will live to see the next one in "100 years," then I would hazard a guess that it will not be the last we will see while still alive and that there are probably plenty more to come from where this one came from with the 401 PPM and not forgetting the sub $30 oil to help speed things up!
Quoting 292. Stoopid1:



A little more sustained convection at the center is all it needs at this point, everything else is in place.

Perhaps, but lots of occluded lows have a similar appearance, as do some upper level lows. We have yet to see any lofty thunderstorms i.e. "hot towers", or a CDO. The storm is also well outside the usual SST parameters, which indicates that the convection is still being driven by cold air aloft as much as it may be surface-based.
Breaking:
At least one person has been killed and three seriously injured after the catastrophe at the Les Deux Alpes resort, France, today. It is believed that 10 secondary school kids and their skiing teacher were hit by the avalanche at 4pm local time (3pm GMT). Five persons are still missing.
---
2nd deadly avalanche there in one week. Also there was a close shot with another one yesterday :
Quoting 112. barbamz:

Winter has finally entered our Alps as well - as the impressive video below of an avalanche in Bessans/France shows (no victims fortunately):



Pre-Alex looks absolutely stunning this afternoon.

Now lets see if the other models join...
This is a subtropical storm, no questions asked. It has been for at least the past 12 hours.


Inflow of cooler and much drier air has wrapped around to the eastern side of 90L and is lifting the inflow of moist tropical air, producing thunderstorms that reach much higher than anything near the low center.
353. JRRP
Quoting 351. BayFog:


Inflow of cooler and much drier air has wrapped around to the eastern side of 90L and is lifting the inflow of moist tropical air, producing thunderstorms that reach much higher than anything near the low center.


Aka subtropical storm.
The entity known as 90L is now subtropical?
Super extra tropical cyclone is about to form in the NE-Pacific:
NWS Forecast
Forecasted winds up to 90 knots is something you do not see every day and reminds me in terms of intensity the storms, that hit Washington and Oregon in 1995, 1962 (Columbus Day Storm) und 1880 (Stormking). This is equavalent to a Category 2 hurricane, with gusts around 110 knots.
Link
The central pressure, around 948 hPa, is not that extreme for a extratropical storm, but the pressure gradient is. Look at that, a 10 hPa pressure drop over just 40 km/ 25 mi, according to the ECMWF-model today at 00 Z for the next 24 hours!

What is also interesting to me, is the southern latitude of formation, about 39 degrees North, whereas you would expect such storms to form around 50 to 60 degrees north.
Quoting 277. Xyrus2000:



It's like any other technology. Computers were the same way. Look at all the utility programs that exist for them today. Look at all the self-diagnostic code that is present on pretty much all components. When was the last time you had manually configure IRQs? Thirty years ago you REALLY had to understand computers and their hardware in order to be a good tech, and people WANTED good techs because computers and just about anything else related to them was so expensive. Now, we have "Geek Squad Techs". *shakes head*


Yes, and with Win95 we got "plug and pray" (sometimes called "plug and play" :) ) virual IRQs, virtual ports and virtual DMAs. The days when you had to know how to configure a computer hardware set up are long gone. The only way to mess one up now is when you try to force fit a component into the wrong place. Yes, I have seen this done and the "builder" would just look confused as to why it didn't work.
looking at the latest sat pics of 90L it is looks like an eye like feature is begining to appear.
Quoting 357. ChateauChalon:

Super extra tropical cyclone is about to form in the NE-Pacific:
NWS Forecast
Forecasted winds up to 90 knots is something you do not see every day and reminds me in terms of intensity the storms, that hit Washington and Oregon in 1995, 1962 (Columbus Day Storm) und 1880 (Stormking). This is equavalent to a Category 2 hurricane, with gusts around 110 knots.
Link
The central pressure, around 948 hPa, is not that extreme for a extratropical storm, but the pressure gradient is. Look at that, a 10 hPa pressure drop over just 40 km/ 25 mi, according to the ECMWF-model today at 00 Z for the next 24 hours!

What is also interesting to me, is the southern latitude of formation, about 39 degrees North, whereas you would expect such storms to form around 50 to 60 degrees north.


I can't make out where this is other than the textual mention that it's in the Pacific.
Quoting 355. KoritheMan:



Aka subtropical storm.

Except for the surface cool dry inflow with downstream baroclinic lifting. IMO I would judge this as a hybrid, or still transitional. The pros at the NHC will have the final say.
357.ChateauChalon, you must be talking about that, right?
Earth.nullschool.net:
Link
Quoting 363. BayFog:


I can't make out where this is other than the textual mention that it's in the Pacific.


The center of circulation will be between the Midway Atoll and the Aleutian Islands.
Polar vort is starting to split. It was elongated to begin with. Snow is coming..Wonder if Washi will be in D.C. the next couple weeks to enjoy it.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
since yesterday near the center of a low pressure system centered
about 850 miles south-southwest of the Azores. If this organizing
trend continues, advisories will be initiated on the system later
today. The low is producing winds to near 50 mph over the southern
portion of its circulation, and is expected to move northeastward
and northward over the eastern Atlantic over the next few days.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system,
and strong gusty winds could begin to affect portions of those
islands by late Thursday or early Friday. For additional
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and Meteo France. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system, if needed, will be issued by 2 PM EST Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&
Quoting 365. 999Ai2016:

357.ChateauChalon, you must be talking about that, right?
Earth.nullschool.net:
Link


Currently it is around 35 N and 170 E.
Quoting 151. RobertWC:



Tens of thousands of dead birds are washing up on the beaches of Alaska’s Prince William Sound, an unexplained mass die-off that some experts say may be related to the changing climate.

The birds, all of a species known as the common murre, appear to have starved to death, federal wildlife officials say, suggesting disruptions to the supply of herring and other fish that make up the birds’ diet.

A survey by wildlife officials over the weekend counted more than 8,000 dead murres on the shores of one beach near Whittier, about 60 miles southeast of Anchorage. Local news video showed bodies of the black-and-white birds scattered on the beach and floating in the water offshore.

a href="
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-enviro nment/wp/2016/01/12/mysterious-mass-deaths-of-alas kan-birds-baffles-scientists/" target="_blank">Link

My God...This and the whales in Indonesia. We are killing this planet and everything on it!
371. MahFL
Quoting 343. PlazaRed:

The wind map looks very good for it as well:-

Link


Those wind maps are based on models, not actual measurement of the winds.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131803
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
since yesterday near the center of a low pressure system centered
about 850 miles south-southwest of the Azores. If this organizing
trend continues, advisories will be initiated on the system later
today. The low is producing winds to near 50 mph over the southern
portion of its circulation, and is expected to move northeastward
and northward over the eastern Atlantic over the next few days.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system,
and strong gusty winds could begin to affect portions of those
islands by late Thursday or early Friday. For additional
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and Meteo France. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system, if needed, will be issued by 2 PM EST Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&
373. JRRP
Quoting 368. TropicalAnalystwx13:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
since yesterday near the center of a low pressure system centered
about 850 miles south-southwest of the Azores. If this organizing
trend continues, advisories will be initiated on the system later
today. The low is producing winds to near 50 mph over the southern
portion of its circulation, and is expected to move northeastward
and northward over the eastern Atlantic over the next few days.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system,
and strong gusty winds could begin to affect portions of those
islands by late Thursday or early Friday. For additional
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and Meteo France. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system, if needed, will be issued by 2 PM EST Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&

nice
374. vis0
Quoting 243. sar2401:

Has anyone else taken the WU survey yet?

      
       Quoting 268. MahFL:


I tried but it crashed on me.
tells me its full
Code Red
70%/70%
With advisories to start later today if trend continues
We soon welcome Subtropical or Tropical Storm Alex and welcome the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Nice, getting that look on the AW side.
If trends continue which I suspect it will advisories will start at 5pm today
Quoting 367. hydrus:

Polar vort is starting to split. It was elongated to begin with. Snow is coming..Wonder if Washi will be in D.C. the next couple weeks to enjoy it.


I'll be back in town for the 16th.I don't want to get my hopes all the way up.I have to see if he Euro has it as well.
i think we could see at lest 2 or 3 name storms in may
all so this would be the 1st time ever we had a name storm for so early in the season the last named storm was too fourm so early was ANA in APR
Quoting 374. vis0:

Quoting 243. sar2401:

Has anyone else taken the WU survey yet?

      
       Quoting 268. MahFL:

tells me its full



I just tried and it said the same thing to me
No rain or snow on the 12z Euro for Charlotte on Sunday..

Go Panthers..
No excuse NHC and I know they are the experts but this should be a 100% chance.Pre-Alex looks really good and is even starting to develop bands in all other quadrants.If this was off the S.E east coast it would have been gotten a name.

Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 13m13 minutes ago
#90L sure looks better organized- pretty good chance of our 1st Atlantic NS formation in Jan since 1978!
Quoting 367. hydrus:

Polar vort is starting to split. It was elongated to begin with. Snow is coming..Wonder if Washi will be in D.C. the next couple weeks to enjoy it.


yes she be out rolling around in it making snow angels
Quoting 370. Loduck:

My God...This and the whales in Indonesia. We are killing this planet and everything on it!

we will never kill the earth
we might destroy it but we will never kill it
nature always rebounds back
always has always will
at least till the sun
goes red giant anyway
90L wrapping up nicely!

Looking more organized at the moment, especially for a system forming in January - or any month of the year!

Interesting how the "beginning" of the 2016 Hurricane Season is here!

We just had Hurricane Kate, in November 2015.





POSS T.C.F.W
90L/INV/STS/A/CX
Quoting 341. ncstorm:

I am heading up to Charlotte for the Seahawks/Panthers game which is at 1pm

Not only after the game I have to get back on the road to head home..

I dont like the trends the GFS is showing with bring back the rain/snow..currently the only model showing this solution..every other model has the system moving out quick and only cold weather to deal with and no precip..

NASA's GEOS-5 has you doom unless you get home by 7 or 8am on Sunday. (Blue lines are below freezing, red above.]
This run also shows chance of flurries on the backside of the storm down to the gulf coast, snow for KS, OK NETX, MS, AL and parts of GA also TN, KY, NC and points north as it rides the coast up as a formidable nor'easter that bombs out at 968mb on Massachusetts 1/18 09Z.


Go Panthers!

So far, great show from this weird Atlantic January hybrid. Definitely's got some tropic. characteristics, although it's a bit dry, and about to encounter the Jet Stream's influence.
Quoting 379. Tazmanian:

i think we could see at lest 2 or 3 name storms in may
iam happy you did not say January taz cause that would take a super magic trick too pull off
Quoting 392. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

iam happy you did not say January taz cause that would take a super magic trick too pull off



yep


Our little Alex-Wannabee, eyed by satellite Aqua/Modis this afternoon.
Quoting 365. 999Ai2016:

357.ChateauChalon, you must be talking about that, right?
Earth.nullschool.net:
Link


In fact it is the system, I am talking about. I did not see immediately, that it was a forecast map.
Usually I go dormant until severe weather season (like March) or hurricane season but 90L is a pretty pleasant surprise! 2 storms in the northern hemisphere outside of the WPAC....pretty impressive!

397. JRRP
looks like a Hurricane
Quoting 397. JRRP:

looks like a Hurricane

ya sub tropical hurricane its a whole new game
Quoting 387. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we will never kill the earth
we might destroy it but we will never kill it
nature always rebounds back
always has always will
at least till the sun
goes red giant anyway



slower and slower
What a weird little storm.
Must be a winter mini-cane.
We have had some real bombers in the winter Atlantic over the last couple of years, and some of them were sure hurricane "looking". This image is from a little less than three years ago, when winter storm Jolle was at about 930 mb. Soon to be Subtropical Storm Alex is interesting, but not quite as impressive as this low was. I will say, from a long avocation of weather guessing, that the NHC is smarter than I am. When I used to guess when the NHC was finally going to name something, I was almost never right. The trouble with the internet is your guess never goes away. I'm pretty certain the reaction of people reading some of my posts back then was "Boy, what a dope!". :-)

Funny seeing SHIPS with a forecast track over single digit sea surface temperatures. Heads up Canada.
I HOPE THE FORECAST BENDS A LITTLE SOUTH AND WE GET SOME SNOW IN MYRTLE BEACH! Its been like four years and that was around 4" inland a few miles where i be,
Quoting 397. JRRP:

looks like a Hurricane



I would like to see a detailed wind profile of the system. That would show how much warm core it has. Cold core systems tend to have the strongest winds away from the center of circulation.
As we know, a pure warm core system will have the strongest winds around the eye in the eye wall.
Quoting 377. wunderkidcayman:

If trends continue which I suspect it will advisories will start at 5pm today


Agree.
TXNT25 KNES 131843
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)

B. 13/1745Z

C. 26.5N

D. 31.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.0.
MET = 2.5 AND PT = 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
Quoting 383. mitthbevnuruodo:



I just tried and it said the same thing to me
Good! That means I have a better chance for the Major Award. I'm already salivating over how I'll spend that $100 Amazon gift card. :-)
Quoting 403. nrtiwlnvragn:

Funny seeing SHIPS with a forecast track over single digit sea surface temperatures. Heads up Canada.
Newfoundland looks like it will get it again.
90L Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis

Currently, this product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.

The five datasets currently used are the ASCAT scatterometer, which is adjusted upward to 700 hPa in the same manner as the surface winds are adjusted downward, feature track winds in the mid-levels from the operational satellite centers, 2-d flight-level winds estimated from infrared imagery (see Mueller et al 2006 ) and 2-d winds created from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)- derived height fields and solving the non-linear balance equations as described in Bessho et al (2006). Past analyses also made use of the QuickSCAT scatterometer (i.e., prior to November 2009), but this satellite is no longer producing observations of surface vector winds.

Each of the input data are shown in subpanels following the analysis (i.e., storm-relative). Shown are AMSU winds, Cloud-drift/IR/WV winds, IR-proxy winds and Scatterometer winds; QuikSCAT, when available for past analyses (BLUE) and ASCAT (RED). All input data in these panels has been reduced to a 10-m land or oceanic exposure depending on the location (i.e., non-surface data has been reduced to a 10-m exposure).

How good are the wind estimates? Here is the verification based upon 2007 data . These statistics were based on 1) H*Wind data when available and 2) best track wind radii estimates from NHC. In interpreting the wind radii verification it is important to not that the zero wind radii are included in the verification, which both skews and inflates the MAE verification statistics. Note however detection is improved over climatology provided by Knaff et al. (2007).
Quoting 398. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya sub tropical hurricane its a whole new game
I wonder how many storms like this might have happened before the satellite era? I imagine a ship passing through this would just chalk it up to another Atlantic low.
While we wait for the inevitable upgrade for pre-Alex to "Haha January, whatevs" Alex, I just checked NHC to see if more storms got their post-analyses completed and it appears as though Kate has joined Henri in getting a slight nudge up in intensity: from 65 to 75kt. Henri got upped from 35 to 45kt.
Is Coriolis effect + 20kts wind shear destroying Pali?



anyone know why the CMC and GFS are initializing this low pressure so differently? They both have a low in Texas on Saturday but the CMC kills it




while the GFS blows it up


any thoughts? Don't usually see this much of a model divergence less than 4 days out.
Quoting 405. Sfloridacat5:



I would like to see a detailed wind profile of the system. That would show how much warm core it has. Cold core systems tend to have the strongest winds away from the center of circulation.
As we know, a pure warm core system will have the strongest winds around the eye in the eye wall.


GFS 12z has 90L with a quite tight and shallow warm core resp. wind field.
Source.
90L definitely meets the criteria for classification, and in fact now looks more tropical than subtropical, with convection surrounding the center.

407. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:32 PM EST on January 13, 2016
What does that mean?

Quoting 415. pipelines:

anyone know why the CMC and GFS are initializing this low pressure so differently? They both have a low in Texas on Saturday but the CMC kills it




while the GFS blows it up


any thoughts? Don't usually see this much of a model divergence less than 4 days out.
It's very interesting with 4-5 days to go and you see distinct disagreement between the GFS and the CMC and Euro.
90l really reminds me of the jan '95 medicane ... hard to imagine a purely tropical system then and now ... but they both definately pass the 'eye' test

Quoting 419. MAweatherboy1:

90L definitely meets the criteria for classification, and in fact now looks more tropical than subtropical, with convection surrounding the center.


I am surprised it still has not been, it's looking pretty good.
Global warming could stave off next ice age for 100,000 years
Source: Reuters - Wed, 13 Jan 2016 18:00 GMT
OSLO, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Global warming is likely to disrupt a natural cycle of ice ages and contribute to delaying the onset of the next big freeze until about 100,000 years from now, scientists said on Wednesday. ...

But before this happens Europe is going to get a little ice week at least ;-)


Notice the blue temperature anomaly in Central Europe. Rare sight lately!

Hope the freeze won't reach and harm the Spanish almond trees:
Warm winter brings early almond blossom and climate change alarm
The Local (Spain) Published: 13 Jan 2016 11:56 GMT+01:00
Experts warn that higher temperatures in Spain this winter have caused the almond trees to bloom too soon, posing risks to the flowery foliage. ...

Meanwhile sad winter news from France (this was from a different avalanche than the one of which I posted a video yesterday):
French Alps avalanche leaves two skiers dead
The Local (France) Published: 13 Jan 2016 17:32 GMT+01:00
A Ukrainian and a teenager have died after an avalanche in the French Alps swept away skiers, including a group of school children. Five pupils are still missing. ...
NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Alex, located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, at 4 pm EST/2100 UTC.
428. ariot
Quoting 386. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yes she be out rolling around in it making snow angels


Does that indicate serious cold has time to set up on the I-95 corridor?

When we have warm - cold -warm -cold wobbles like this year, we tend to get rain mixes.
Quoting 420. washingtonian115:

407. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:32 PM EST on January 13, 2016
What does that mean?
Quoting 427. TropicalAnalystwx13:

NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Alex, located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, at 4 pm EST/2100 UTC.

We got Alex. 1/0/0.
I wouldnt be surprised if the Azores gets at least cat 1 winds from this.
Quoting 431. MeteorologistTV:

I wouldnt be surprised if the Azores gets at least cat 1 winds from this.


Even if he does, he wont be designated as a hurricane unless he transitions to tropical.
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4m4 minutes ago
Eric Blake Retweeted NHC Atlantic Ops
It is flat-out ridiculous that NHC & CPHC are writing advisories at the same time in January- first time on record!
Quoting 429. washingtonian115:



SAB assessed Alex as fully tropical. NHC seems to be playing conservative and will initiate Alex as subtropical.
With Alex now here, the hurricane season is officially off to an early start, and earlier than last year with the first storm forming in May. Have great curiousity on how this season will go.
Quoting 432. JrWeathermanFL:



Even if he does, he wont be designated as a hurricane unless he transitions to tropical.


Obviously
Quoting 434. TropicalAnalystwx13:


SAB assessed Alex as fully tropical. NHC seems to be playing conservative and will initiate Alex as subtropical.

i believe he is fully tropical. He's had way more convection near his center today than he did this time yesterday. He only has about a day or so to take advantage of marginally warm waters and wind shear. GFS assessed Alex as Shallow Warm Core.
Quoting 436. MeteorologistTV:



Obviously


I know you know that, but that's what makes it interesting...

Hypothetically, if Alex becomes a "subtropical hurricane", when was the last time that happened?
Alex reminds me a little of the perfect storm in 1991.
Looks better than Bertha ever did.

Quoting 419. MAweatherboy1:

90L definitely meets the criteria for classification, and in fact now looks more tropical than subtropical, with convection surrounding the center.


Quoting 440. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks better than Bertha ever did.



lol good one, but so true
Looks more tropical than subtropical. Cyclone phase diagrams from the GFS and UKMET show symmetric warm core.
Quoting 420. washingtonian115:

407. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:32 PM EST on January 13, 2016
What does that mean?


2:32PM Eastern Standard Time January 13, 2016.
Quoting 441. tiggerhurricanes2001:


lol good one, but so true



need I....



Most of us remember JO(ke)SE..
Quoting 442. Drakoen:

Looks more tropical than subtropical. Cyclone phase diagrams from the GFS and UKMET show symmetric warm core.

Maybe it's the extensive windfield.
...OUT OF SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

5:00 PM AST Wed Jan 13
Location: 27.1°N 30.8°W
Moving: NE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Quoting 444. JrWeathermanFL:



need I....



Most of us remember JO(ke)SE..

I cannot stop laughing.
Quoting 430. Andrebrooks:

We got Alex. 1/0/0.


Indeed. Wow. Frame it and hang it on the wall :-o

And Maxweather will be too late with our hurricane bet this "season", lol.
Quoting 418. Patrap:




Nice wind profile
Thanks for posting


SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016

Curved bands of cloudiness and showers/thunderstorms associated with
the low pressure system over the eastern subtropical Atlantic have
become better defined over the past 24 hours. Although the
convection is not very deep, it is likely of at least moderate
intensity given the relatively shallow tropospause over the area.
Given the increased organization, and the apparent dissipation of
nearby frontal features, advisories are being initiated at this
time. The cyclone is co-located with an upper-level low, and
appears to have only a weak warm core, so it is being designated
as a subtropical storm. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in
agreement with an earlier scatterometer overpass. A ship traversed
the northern portion of the circulation earlier today and did not
observe winds of tropical storm force and this is reflected in the
advisory wind radii.
Although the shear is not forecast to become very strong over the
next several days, the cyclone will be moving over progressively
colder waters. Therefore no increase in strength is shown for the
next day or so. In the latter part of the forecast period, some
strengthening is possible due to baroclinic processes. By 96
hours, the global models show the cyclone merging or becoming
absorbed by another extratropical low at high latitudes.

Alex is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by the time it
passes near or over the Azores, so no tropical storm warnings are
being issued for those islands. However, gale force winds are
likely to affect portions of the Azores beginning late on Thursday
or early on Friday.

Alex is the first tropical or subtropical storm to form in January
since an unnamed system did so in 1978, and is only the fourth known
to form in this month in the historical record that begins in 1851.

Quoting 438. JrWeathermanFL:



I know you know that, but that's what makes it interesting...

Hypothetically, if Alex becomes a "subtropical hurricane", when was the last time that happened?


1979 is the only time I can think of that something like that occurred

1979, Subtropical Storm One
Cue the global warming posts :P

Seriously did the ATL lose its mind?



A NAMED January storm.....

So when's Bonnie? :P
We are tracking in January!!
Quoting 453. JrWeathermanFL:

Cue the global warming posts :P

Seriously did the ATL lose its mind?



A NAMED January storm.....

So when's Bonnie? :P
The altantic saw the pacific form Pali and waned a name storm too.
Also get first winter Recon scheduled for tomorrow, must be for the SouthEast storm.


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. A66/DROP 8 (26.5N 95.0W)/ 15/0000Z
B. AFXXX 02WSA TRACK66
C. 14/2100Z
D. 10 AS SPECIFIED IN THE NWSOP
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 15/0200Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE TRACK A62 WITH
A CONTROL TIME OF 16/0000Z.
Volcano Activity in Indonesia on January 13 2016 04:48 PM (UTC).

"Officials have ordered an evacuation of residents living at the feet of Mount Egon on the island of Flores, in East Nusa Tenggara province, following an increase in volcanic activity. The Volcanology and Disaster Mitigation Center, or PVMBG, raised the alert status for the volcano to level 3 on its four-point scale, which indicates "an imminent eruption or disaster." Under the heightened alert status, the PVMBG has extended the exclusion radius from the volcano's crater to three kilometers from the initial 1.5 kilometers enforced on Dec. 15, when the PVMBG raise the alert status from 2 to 3. That put the village of Egon Gahar in the danger zone, prompting an evacuation of residents. Egon's last major eruption was in April 2008, but volcanic earthquakes have been registering there almost regularly since November 2010. Egon is one of five volcanoes in Indonesia on level 3 alert. The others - all of which are currently erupting or have recently erupted - are Soputan, Lokon and Siau, in North Sulawesi province; and Bromo, in East Java. Another volcano, Sinabung in North Sumatra, is on level 4 alert, and has been erupting sporadically - and spectacularly - since September 2013. Fourteen other volcanoes are on level 2 alert.

There are a total of 127 active volcanoes in Indonesia, more than in any other country on Earth."
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 16h16 hours ago
ECMWF 12z has 941-mb for Central North Pacific "warm seclusion" at only 40°N. Very intense for latitude

I don't understand... Why is the low very intense for being at 40°N?
ALERT ATCF MIL 90X XXX 160113120000
2016011312
24.3 322.1
31.9 330.6
200
26.0 327.5
131800
1601131800
1
WTNT21 KNGU 131800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT //
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.3N 37.9W TO 31.9N 29.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 TO 45 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.0N 32.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SSE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS. MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KTS. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 12 KTS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141800Z.//

Wow a named storm in Januray! what makes this even more impressive its in the strongest el nino recorded.
Just to put into perspective how rare this is

Michael Lowry ‏@MichaelRLowry 21m21 minutes ago
Michael Lowry Retweeted NHC Atlantic Ops
And so it begins. The earliest start to an Atlantic hurricane season in 78 years
Ok so everybody has to up their 2016 forecast by one.
Quoting 460. Geoboy645:

Wow a named storm in Januray! what makes this even more impressive its in the strongest el nino recorded.
Isn't it because of the el nino that we have a subtropical storm?

NWS All NOAA







Subtropical Storm ALEX Forecast Discussion
000
WTNT41 KNHC 132032
TCDAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016

Curved bands of cloudiness and showers/thunderstorms associated with
the low pressure system over the eastern subtropical Atlantic have
become better defined over the past 24 hours. Although the
convection is not very deep, it is likely of at least moderate
intensity given the relatively shallow tropospause over the area.
Given the increased organization, and the apparent dissipation of
nearby frontal features, advisories are being initiated at this
time. The cyclone is co-located with an upper-level low, and
appears to have only a weak warm core, so it is being designated
as a subtropical storm. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in
agreement with an earlier scatterometer overpass. A ship traversed
the northern portion of the circulation earlier today and did not
observe winds of tropical storm force and this is reflected in the
advisory wind radii.

The cyclone has been turning toward the left as it moves in the
flow on the east side of a shortwave trough, and the initial motion
is northeastward or 055/12 kt. The trough is expected to continue
to swing counterclockwise around a broader mid-latitude cyclonic
gyre, and this should result in Alex turning northward and
north-northwestward over the next several days. The official
forecast track follows the dynamical model consensus.

Although the shear is not forecast to become very strong over the
next several days, the cyclone will be moving over progressively
colder waters. Therefore no increase in strength is shown for the
next day or so. In the latter part of the forecast period, some
strengthening is possible due to baroclinic processes. By 96
hours, the global models show the cyclone merging or becoming
absorbed by another extratropical low at high latitudes.

Alex is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by the time it
passes near or over the Azores, so no tropical storm warnings are
being issued for those islands. However, gale force winds are
likely to affect portions of the Azores beginning late on Thursday
or early on Friday.

Alex is the first tropical or subtropical storm to form in January
since an unnamed system did so in 1978, and is only the fourth known
to form in this month in the historical record that begins in 1851.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 27.1N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 28.9N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 32.0N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 36.3N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 42.3N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 16/1800Z 56.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 463. Gearsts:

Isn't it because of the el nino that we have a subtropical storm?
yes feed back from it likly
it can mess up the atmospheres
Quoting 458. Gearsts:

Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 16h16 hours ago
ECMWF 12z has 941-mb for Central North Pacific "warm seclusion" at only 40%uFFFDN. Very intense for latitude

I don't understand... Why is the low very intense for being at 40%uFFFDN?


It is on the left side of an extremly strong jet streak (>200 mph), next to an area of strong diffluence.
There is a strong temperature contrast, especially at the 500- and 700 hPa level.
There is also intrusion of warm and moist air from the subtropics, so the system gathers additional energy trough latent heat.
In general, the fits well in the model as idealized by the Shapiro and Keyser.
Shapiro-Keyser cyclogenesis
test image
01L/STS/A/CX
471. vis0

Quoting 387. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we will never kill the earth
we might destroy it but we will never kill it
nature always rebounds back
always has always will
at least till the sun
goes red giant anyway

Are 5 ways that a planet can "die" a Natural death:: (not in order of magnitude)

Star expands (as noted by you)
Moon leaves (which will happen sooner than thought but i expect correction rockets to be added to the moon to keep it "in place".
Galaxy swallowed by block hole, turns light into into "unheard" of resonances that the universe will recycle into another flourishing group of stars via the output of Novae-Qs.
Can you guess number 4? )|(
The biggest quietest  crunch (when the universe's soul takes back the physical dimension and becomes a sleeping plane of a spirit...again

calm down ^washi115 it will not happen before your next snowfall.

washi115 might reply with:: R U SURE?

What humans can do, is make themselves disappear to which gawd might reply with "oh, finally! thank grothar they're gone.

And now we turn back to the 2 countdowns, as to TS in ATL and a TS crossing the Equator(s)... yes i say equator(s) but since there is no proof yet i'm a nut.

as to ^sar2401 and ^georgevandenberghe's discussion on car engines not to worry they'll be a App for that, where the engine's board will be hooked up via the glove compartment , something goes wrong? you buy the App to replace it at Walgreens® for 19.99, if anyone hot-wires it, the car locks the doors and drives you to the closest police dept via Google auto drive** that has not had their morning krispy kremes® yet.

During test runs the google auto drive® app might error and drive the thief into the zoo's lion exhibit where the thief will be wishing it was the police dept. station.

Finally if Pali makes it across will we pali-anna the times when TS  existed during or near the hemisphere's summer season, went from the tropics towards the mid lat.  regions (Alex-wannabe ~is () was going mid-lat to equator) and we had days if not weeks to   procrastinate   prepare for a major hurricane.

see what i did i included 3 or 4 different subjects so readers will get headaches trying to wonder if they should plus the comment when they only agree with one portion of the comment...too bad WxU does not have the ability to highlight and plus so hovering over the plus drop-down  username record shows the line number each member plused sar2401 get off the floor and stop laffing...you too  Λ^RADAR.
OK folks, we have Alex and he's heading for____Greenland!

Look at the anomalies near the Azores where Alex is....I'm afraid he will be one of many storms to take advantage of the boiling sst in the Atlantic this year.


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago
All NMME models are showing Strong El Nino to flip to La Nina this Summer... except for the CFSv2
Quoting 458. Gearsts:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 16h16 hours ago
ECMWF 12z has 941-mb for Central North Pacific "warm seclusion" at only 40°N. Very intense for latitude

I don't understand... Why is the low very intense for being at 40°N?

There really is nothing unusual about a deep low in and near the Gulf of Alaska during winter. In fact, it's pretty typical. It would be more interesting to have such a low at the California coast...not so usual.
Thought our precious January-Alex is worth a loop. New surface analysis has it at 990mb (earlier 989). Big fronts are heading its way.



Quoting 471. vis0:


Are 5 ways that a planet can "die" a Natural death:: (not in order of magnitude)

Star expands (as noted by you)
Moon leaves (which will happen sooner than thought but i expect correction rockets to be added to the moon to keep it "in place".
Galaxy swallowed by block hole, turns light into into "unheard" of resonances that the universe will recycle into another flourishing group of stars via the output of Novae-Qs.
Can you guess number 4? )|(
The biggest quietest  crunch (when the universe's soul takes back the physical dimension and becomes a sleeping plane of a spirit...again

calm down ^washi115 it will not happen before your next snowfall.

washi115 might reply with:: R U SURE?

What humans can do, is make themselves disappear to which gawd might reply with "oh, finally! thank grothar they're gone.

And now we turn back to the 2 countdowns, as to TS in ATL and a TS crossing the Equator(s)... yes i say equator(s) but since there is no proof yet i'm a nut.

as to ^sar2401 and ^georgevandenberghe's discussion on car engines not to worry they'll be a App for that, where the engine's board will be hooked up via the glove compartment , something goes wrong? you buy the App to replace it at Walgreens® for 19.99, if anyone hot-wires it, the car locks the doors and drives you to the closest police dept via Google auto drive** that has not had their morning krispy kremes® yet.

During test runs the google auto drive® app might error and drive the thief into the zoo's lion exhibit where the thief will be wishing it was the police dept. station.

Finally if Pali makes it across will we pali-anna the times when TS  existed during or near the hemisphere's summer season, went from the tropics towards the mid lat.  regions (Alex-wannabe ~is () was going mid-lat to equator) and we had days if not weeks to   procrastinate   prepare for a major hurricane.

see what i did i included 3 or 4 different subjects so readers will get headaches trying to wonder if they should plus the comment when they only agree with one portion of the comment...too bad WxU does not have the ability to highlight and plus so hovering over the plus drop-down  username record shows the line number each member plused sar2401 get off the floor and stop laffing...you too  Λ^RADAR.



Now THAT was funny.

Is there an escape plan for 2016 if the Greek alphabet get exhausted!?
Quoting 472. PlazaRed:

OK folks, we have Alex and he's heading for____Greenland!



The storm will also have to traverse the notorious cold pool. If it makes it with any moisture intact to Greenland, there will be a highland blizzard since this is still a cold core system.
Tropical storm/hurricane warning on the beaches of southern Greenland.
People are to be warned to build hurricane proof igloos ASAP.

Whatever next in this crazy world? We are only at about 402 PPM with this el Nino, what happens when the next one comes creeping up out of the depths at maybe 420 PPM?
480. vis0

Quoting 400. TimSoCal:

What a weird little storm.

[humour]
ya kant fool me posting Danny 2015 during the winter

... JUST A SECOND SOMEONE WANTS TO TELL ME SOMETHING...

wadda ya mean its a real spin up in the ATL but its winter?

next thing you'll tell me some warm cored system is crossing the equator(s) or post Erika like formation near Florida as the "B" (if A forms) storm, sheesh anything to make the blog active. [humour]
Quoting 474. BayFog:


There really is nothing unusual about a deep low in and near the Gulf of Alaska during winter. In fact, it's pretty typical. It would be more interesting to have such a low at the California coast...not so usual.


Such a strong extratropical cyclone are not common there, because of being south of 40 N and east of the date line.
HF extratropical cyclones in the North Pacific
Indeed, HF-cyclones are very rare near California.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
483. vis0
grothar please give nature a cookie or at-a-girl...uarrrrrrm uhhhhhhm ya missed this blob grothar...hibernating the job are we?
484. vis0

Quoting 463. Gearsts:

Isn't it because of the el nino that we have a subtropical storm?

Remember sar2401 saying more than a week ago as to what was around Florida that it could become subtropical as it heads eastward, i thought it might become a strong subtrop and do a loopdeloop just passing northeast of the Bahamas with a very slight chance of becoming a TS ..oh well back to the wee-gee board.

^Barbamz postedsat imagery showing El Nino moisture plumes / clouds feeding Pali and what has become Alex so i theorize that it is the following.

i can hear El Nino saying (spoiled kids voice)

Nino:: The Pacific is not big enough i want to play in the Atlantic(o) too!!

Nino:: gracias Mama (nana) y aGW
485. vis0

Quoting 473. washingtonian115:

Look at the anomalies near the Azores where Alex is....I'm afraid he will be one of many storms to take advantage of the boiling sst in the Atlantic this year.


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago
All NMME models are showing Strong El Nino to flip to La Nina this Summer... except for the CFSv2
still remember it formed where its relatively cooler  when it was warmer to its west and east [as Alex spin is pulling some warmer northward] and over recently up-welled ocean from a previous  storm / front.
 so what? just being real ...rest on my blog.

i state this as then future readers might believe if they just skim pages that the area where Alex formed was the warmest around it. When Alex formed over the coolest areas around it  BE IT THAT even the coolest waters are now warmer due to aGw and other impulses from nature....rest on my zilly blog pg.6 cmmnt#269.
486. vis0

Quoting 477. Uragani:

Is there an escape plan for 2016 if the Greek alphabet get exhausted!?

We recycle the same names but add v2.0 after each name as in Alex v2.0 ...zeta v2.0 etc etc.  shh don't tell anyone i just made that up it sounds good.
Quoting 486. vis0:


We recycle the same names but add v2.0 after each name as in Alex v2.0 ...zeta v2.0 etc etc.  shh don't tell anyone i just made that up it sounds good.


I'm laughing too, and I see your trick. 1 1/2 hrs ha ha ha well done vis0 Oh you're so funny. vis whO?
Gadzook !