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NOAA Agrees: February 2016 Was Earth's Warmest Month in Recorded History

By: Jeff Masters 3:53 PM GMT on March 17, 2016

February 2016 was by far the planet's warmest February since record keeping began in 1880, and was also the warmest month relative to average of any month in the historical record, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Thursday. As discussed here on Sunday, NASA also rated February 2016 as the warmest February as well as the warmest month in recorded history (measured as a departure from average.) In the NOAA database, February 2016 came in a full 0.32°C (0.58°F) warmer than the previous record-holder, February 2015--a truly astounding margin to break an all-time monthly global temperature record by (these records are typically broken by just a few hundredths of a degree.) The five warmest months since 1880 (as measured by departure from average in both the NOAA and NASA databases) were the past five months. The impressive global warmth in recent months is due to the steady build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases due to human activities, plus a spike due to a large amount of heat being released from waters in the Eastern Pacific due to the strong El Niño event there.


Figure 1. Departure from average for the global February temperature for the years 1880 - 2016. This year had by far the warmest February temperatures on record. Image credit: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

February 2016 also marked the tenth consecutive month that the monthly temperature record has been broken and the fifteenth consecutive month (since December 2014) that the monthly global temperature ranked among the three warmest for its respective month in the NOAA database. Global ocean temperatures during February 2016 were the warmest on record, and global land temperatures were the second warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in February 2016 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest in the 38-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). This is the fifth consecutive month the UAH database has registered a record monthly high.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for February 2016, the warmest February for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across portions of South America, much of southern Africa, southern and eastern Europe, around the Urals of Russia, most of Southeast Asia stretching to northern Australia, and portions of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

Strong El Niño quickly weakening
February 2016 still featured strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) 1.8°C above average on March 12 in the so-called Niño3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 1.5°C above average to be considered a strong El Niño. El Niño is weakening quickly--the event peaked in strength in late November 2015, when the weekly Niño3.4 temperature anomaly hit a record 3.1°C. NOAA expects a transition to neutral conditions during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a 50% chance of a transition to La Niña conditions during the fall.

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest February extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during February 2016 was the lowest in the 38-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This is the second consecutive month with a record-low sea ice extent.

Four billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2016
According to the February 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, four billion-dollar weather-related disasters have hit Earth so far in 2016:

1) Drought, Vietnam, 1/1 - 2/29, $6.7 billion, 0 killed
2) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/16 - 1/18, $2.0 billion, 58 killed
3) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/25, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
4) Drought, Zimbabwe, 1/1 - 2/29, $1.6 billion, 0 killed

Notable global heat and cold marks set for February 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 45.0°C (113.0°F) at Nguigmi, Niger, February 29: ties highest recorded temperature in February in the Northern Hemisphere
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -61.3°C (-78.3°F) at Summit, Greenland, February 11
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.8°C (118.0°F) at Mardie, Australia on February 12 and at Emu Creek, Australia on February 13
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -59.4°C (-74.9°F) at Dome Fuji, Antarctica, February 17
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in February 2016
El Bolson (Argentina) max. 37.5°C, 1 February
Niuafoou (Tonga) max. 35.5°C, 1 February: New National Record High for Tonga
Bauerfield Airport (Vanuatu) max. 35.7°C, 7 February: New National Record High for Vanuatu
Tanna White Grass Airport (Vanuatu) max. 35.2°C, 7 February
Saratata (Vanuatu) Max. 35.3°C, 7 February
Ouloup (New Caledonia, France) max. 35.3°C, 7 February
Ouanamham (New Caledonia, France) max. 34.6°C, 7 February
Lamap Malekula (Vanuatu) max. 36.2°C, 8 February: New National Record High for Vanuatu
Fuaamotu Airport (Tonga) max. 34.4°C, 8 February
Pekoa Airport Santo (Vanuatu) max. 35.0°C, 9 February
Ambon (Indonesia) max. 36.1°C, 10 February
Cilaos (Reunion Islands, France) max. 30.4°C, 11 February
Aneityum (Vanuatu) max. 34.3°C, 11 February
Hanan Airport (Niue, New Zealand) max. 33.9°C, 11 February
Udu Point (Fiji) max. 34.0°C, 14 February
Sola Vanua Lava (Vanuatu) max. 35.0°C, 16 February
Low Isles Lighthouse (Australia) max. 38.8°C, 16 February
Bello (Colombia) max. 36.4°C, 16 February
Bondoukou (Cote d' Ivoire) max. 40.6°C, 16 February
Mangalore City (India) max. 38.4°C, 18 February
Kozhikode (India) max. 37.6°C, 19 February
Kannur (India) max. 38.8°C, 19 February
Dimbokro (Cote d' Ivoire) max. 41.2°C, 20 February
Gagnoa (Cote d' Ivoire) max. 38.9°C, 21 February
Port Harcourt (Nigeria) max. 38.0°C, 21 February
Nabouwalu(Fiji) max. 35.2°C, 23 February
Suva Airport (Fiji) max. 34.9°C, 24 February
Piura (Peru) max. 38.4°C, 24 February
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Four all-time national heat records and one all-time cold record set through mid-March 2016
So far in 2016, four nations or territories have tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history, and one (Hong Kong) has set an all-time cold temperature record. "All-time" record here refers to the warmest or coldest temperature ever reliably reported in a nation or territory. The period of record varies from country to country and station to station, but it is typically a few decades to a century or more. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt maintains a database of these national heat and cold records for 235 nations and territories on wunderground.com's extremes page. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records so far:

Botswana set its all-time hottest record on January 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun. The old record was set just the previous day  (January 6, 2016) with 43.5°C (110.3°F) at Tsabong. The record heat in Botswana during the first week of January was part of a remarkable heat wave that affected much of southern Africa, causing at least $250 million in drought-related damages to South Africa in the month. Mr. Herrera noted in an email to me that temperatures in South Africa at elevations between 1000 and 1600 meters were higher than any previous temperatures ever recorded at those altitudes anywhere in the world. The national heat records of Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, and Swaziland might all have fallen were it not for the lack of observing stations in the hottest areas. Lesotho has no weather stations anymore that issue the standard "synoptic" weather observations every six hours; Mozambique and Swaziland have closed all their stations in the hottest areas; and Namibia just closed its Noordower station, which was its hottest station.

Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.8°C (96.4°F) on January 10, 2016 at Futuna Airport. This is the second year in a row that Wallis and Futuna has beaten its all-time heat mark; the previous record was a 35.5°C (95.9°F) reading on January 19, 2015 at the Futuna Airport.

Tonga set its all-time hottest record on February 1, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Niuafoou.

Vanuatu in the South Pacific set its all-time national heat record on February 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula. The previous record was a 35.7°C (96.3°F) reading just the previous day (February 7, 2016) at the Bauerfield Efate Airport. All seven major weather reporting stations in Vanuatu beat or tied their all-time heat records February 7 - 8, 2016.

Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, when the mercury dipped to -5.7°C (21.7°F) at Tai Mo Shan.

We'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Blog Name: "Window on Weather", "Weather Window", "Window on Warming-World Weather", "Window on Weather in a Warming World", "Worrisome Weather in a Warming World", or "Wild Weather in a Warming World".
Thanks Doc...The unusual weather continues....April will certainly be interesting. Hope no more rain for the northern gulf coast.
Thank Godzilla El Nino for that.
Quoting Jeff Masters:

[February was] the fifth consecutive month the UAH database has registered a record monthly high... The five warmest months since 1880 (as measured by departure from average in both the NOAA and NASA databases) were the past five months.
I'm sure it's just coincidence. :\

Speaking of ice: 2016 marks the first time Arctic sea ice area (as measured by Cryosphere Today) hasn't gone above 13 million km2, In fact, this year's maximum to-date is still 260,000 square kilometers below the previous record low maximum; that's an area larger than Oregon.
Thank you Dr. Considering that the seasons are "reversed" as between the Northern and Southern hemisphere, and that it is currently early Fall in the Southern one, no surprise then that the Indian Ocean is spinning up a major at this time given the very warm equatorial ssts at and just below the equator at the moment on the south side.

It looks like record warmest ssts for February near the area that Emeraude is current traversing from the chart you have posted; that probably contributed to the RI event for this storm earlier this morning.



clickable global map of SST anomalies






Quoting 3. luvtogolf:

Thank Godzilla El Nino for that.


Best estimates from various analyses suggest El Nino is responsible for between 8 and 10 percent of the warming in 2015. There is no evidence to suggest that is any different so far here. Link This can be seen quite easily when looking at the values versus corrections for ENSO.

Quoting 2. hydrus:

Thanks Doc...The unusual weather continues....April will certainly be interesting. Hope no more rain for the northern gulf coast.


El-Nino has ruthlessly targeted the area, strongest ULL ever recorded no less. Brutal redo of last year just further east. Historic flooding. OKC area holding their breath for April and May. Florida's had a busy Winter too.
Thanks, Doc!

Below a useful round-up of what has been done so far to tackle the problem of warming by different nations - or better: what has not been done:

How the World Has Changed Since Paris Climate Pact
Climate Central, Published: March 16th, 2016
National leaders have yet to sign a new United Nations climate pact, but developments during the three months since the Paris Agreement was finalized have been feverish.
The fate of electricity rules underpinning U.S. commitments under the pact has been thrown into doubt, new data suggests China may have already hit its targets, and Europe has been embroiled in a debate over whether its climate commitments are sufficiently aggressive.
The recent developments suggest momentum is still building in many places toward a meaningful global solution to global warming. Meanwhile, searing new temperature records demonstrated the increasing urgency of the problem. ...

Whole article with details see link above.
The Trend Continues, Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters....
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Cold and rainy..Possible snow accumulations...



Earths CO2 ppm for February,


404.16

2016, the Year the Earth awakens to the Human induced AGW forcing's.







s
Thanks for the update Dr Masters!
Nice broad scale shot of the Indian Ocean, Emeraude, and the link (and nice pin hole eye):

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.p hp?&basin=indian&prod=irbbm&sat=m5



Bye bye El Niño and welcome La Niña

I say El Niño is weakening faster than some think
I say La Niña will come sooner than some think
I say La Niña will be stronger than some think
It looks like the storm went through an eyewall replacement cycle after the rapid burst earlier today:


Emeraude some hours ago before sunset, seen by Himawari (click to enlarge). Source.
Quoting 20. weathermanwannabe:

It looks like the storm went through an eyewall replacement cycle after the rapid burst earlier today:

You are right:





Source and more (animation):
Thursday, March 17, 2016: Tropical Cyclone Emeraude Viewed By GPM

NASA: Tropical Cyclone Emeraude continues to strengthen
By Ravi Mandalia - March 17, 2016
Quoting 16. Patrap:

New Orleans has a greening issue today, so I'm "investigating" under cover.
Wide brimmed hats are especially useful.
Thanks Dr. Masters for this update!

I like this image the most:



It gives a good picture about how extraordinary an anomaly is.
Wide brimmed hats are especially useful.
Quoting 19. wunderkidcayman:

Bye bye El Niño and welcome La Niña

I say El Niño is weakening faster than some think
I say La Niña will come sooner than some think
I say La Niña will be stronger than some think


And you are basing this on what information/data?
Quoting 24. elioe:

Thanks Dr. Masters for this update!

I like this image the most:



It gives a good picture about how extraordinary an anomaly is.
That cold blob in the N. Atlantic SE of Greenland is going to be the biggest climate/weather story of the decade for the effect it will have on northern Europe.

Melting Greenland is not a good idea for multiple reasons, as we will see.
Quoting 26. luvtogolf:



And you are basing this on what information/data?


Here is a better question why does the CFS thinks that El Niño will return? based on what?
Quoting 26. luvtogolf:



And you are basing this on what information/data?


Looks like guessing to me.
Quoting 29. AdamReith:

That cold blob in the N. Atlantic SE of Greenland is going to be the biggest climate/weather story of the decade for the effect it will have on northern Europe.

Melting Greenland is not a good idea for multiple reasons, as we will see.


I am not a pro but often stay at Holiday Inn Express when I travel with the family; that cold pool is altering the normal flow of the Gulf Stream across the North Atlantic and also causing that pile-up of warm water from the stream off of the NE US/SE Canada...................Something very serious is going on and probably related to a gorwing pool of cold-dense water flowing off of the melting Greenland ice caps.

Another well documented research issue (possible slow-down of the Gulf current) that is probably going to verify in a big way.
Rising Seas Could Force 13 Million Americans to Move
by Leon Kaye on Thursday, Mar 17th, 2016

According to the 2010 U.S. Census and other government agency estimates, almost 40 percent of Americans live in counties along a coastline. Economic opportunities in cities such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, along with many citizens’ desires to live in a warm Southern climate, could see that proportion increase by another 8 percent by the end of this decade. About half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of a shoreline, and why wouldn’t that be the case? The coasts are integral to commerce, recreation and, for millions, an incredible quality of life.

So, even if only a few of the suggested risks associated with climate change come true this century, the results will cause huge headaches for real estate companies, insurers, municipal governments and, of course, many citizens. In fact, a new study released by the journal Nature suggests that in a worst-case scenario, as many as 13 million people will be seriously affected by rising sea levels due to climate change by the end of this century. The data revealed in this study adds to what has been a very long wake-up call: Politicians who balk at climate adaption costs for a threat of which they are still not convinced leave the potential for an even larger and more expensive mess for the next generation.

Even a conservative sea-level rise of three feet could wreak havoc on rural and crowded urban areas alike. North Carolina’s Tyrrell County, the state’s least populous county with only 4,400 residents, has the highest percentage of people who would be potentially at risk from rising seas. The Nature study, led by University of Georgia Ph.D. candidate Mathew Hauer, also demonstrates the potential for future tension between wealthier regions such as the Bay Area and Houston against remote areas like North Carolina’s Outer Banks or Virginia’s Eastern Shore. When federal, state and regional governments finally start becoming serious about climate adaptation and mitigation, will poorer areas lose out on funding compared to the wealthier and more politically influential cities?

Or will citizens in these less affluent counties just be told to move? And for a state such as Florida, which by far could see itself in a massive crisis with at least 3.5 million future residents under threat, what can be done when the highest point in the state is only 345 feet above sea level?

Such disputes are already underway in Alaska’s Arctic coastal areas, where residents say the effects of climate change are clearly evident. Newtok, a small village home to about 350 people, voted to move nine miles away to higher ground as far back as 1996. Melting permafrost and erosion have made life in the western Alaskan outpost nearly impossible, so local leaders negotiated with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to move to another location in exchange for allowing their current home to become a wildlife refuge. But as the Atlantic explained, nothing has happened since the arrangement was agreed upon in 2003. Another village, Kivalina, could find itself under water as soon as 2025. The most daunting challenge these communities face is that U.S. disaster relief policy is overwhelmingly reactive; federal agencies such as FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) are quick to arrive after a catastrophe. The will to prepare and avert a potential disaster such as in Newtok or Kivalina, however, does not exist: Leaders do not want to be on the hook for massive infrastructure projects related to something they see as nebulous as climate change.

Some states, including California, are trying to get ahead of the curve. California has invested in its fair share research outlining future risks the state’s coast confronts. The issue, however, is that such information available to the public tends to go far beyond policy wonk-speak and does not resonate with residents and the business community.
In the meantime, business and government really have no choice but to find ways in which they can work together to adapt to, if not mitigate, what will be a very different environment in the coming decades. But as long as companies stifle any discussion of climate change, politics continue to get in the way of long-term planning and climate action is seen more as an indulgence and less as risk management, watch for these costs — and human misery — to rise even more.

The Mid March update of all the ENSO models from IRI now have between 43% (La Nina) and 44% (Neutral) probabilities by ASO.This is somewhat below what they had earlier this month when it was at 50% of having La Nina by ASO.The Mid-March plume shows a more spread graphic that is mainly caused to the Spring Barrier that is the period when is more difficult to predict.





IRI Mid-March forecast
Quoting 31. maxcrc:



Looks like guessing to me.



Wrong answer
Quoting 34. Tropicsweatherpr:

The Mid March update of all the ENSO models from IRI now have between 43% (La Nina) and 44% (Neutral) probabilities by ASO.This is somewhat below what they had earlier this month when it was at 50% of having La Nina by ASO.The Mid-March plume shows a more spread graphic that is mainly caused to the Spring Barrier that is the period when is more difficult to predict.





IRI Mid-March forecast



I'm calling it the spring predictability barrier
The picture should become more clear once we get into the May June time frame

I think the % will go much further for La Niña and sooner time frame

Clearer picture should be painted as we go into May
Largest Increase In CO2 Levels In 56 Years Happened In 2015
March 16th, 2016 by Joshua S. Hill


The largest increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels happened in 2015, when it jumped by 3.05 parts per million, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Mauna Loa Observatory is a premier atmospheric research facility that has been continuously monitoring and collecting data related to atmospheric change since the 1950’s.
The United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii reported the unprecedented spike in CO2 levels this week, which was the largest year-to-year increase ever observed in the 56 years of recording and research done at the station. To make matters worse, in another first, 2015 was the fourth consecutive year that CO2 grew more than 2 parts per million (ppm), according to Pieter Tans, lead scientist of NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network.

“Carbon dioxide levels are increasing faster than they have in hundreds of thousands of years,” Tans said. “It’s explosive compared to natural processes.”

The figures paint a dramatic tale: In February 2016, the average global atmospheric CO2 level was 402.59 ppm. Prior to the year 1800, atmospheric CO2 averaged around 280 ppm. Scientific research has concluded that the last time the Earth experienced such a sustained CO2 increase was between 17,000 and 11,000 years ago — and even then, CO2 levels only increased by 80 ppm. Today’s rate of increase is 200 times faster.


The figures determined by the Mauna Loa Observatory were also independently measured by NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, California.

According to NOAA, despite the scary growth trends, this current jump in CO2 levels “is partially due to the current El Niño weather pattern,” mirrored by the last previous big increase which occurred in 1998, and was also a strong El Niño year.

Quoted by Climate Central, Michael Mann, an atmospheric science professor and director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University, said that the CO2 milestone shouldn’t be over-interpreted.

“This spike is almost certainly due in substantial part to the ongoing El Niño event, which is a fleeting effect that increases carbon dioxide concentrations temporarily,” Mann said. “Carbon dioxide concentrations are a lagging indicator, and they don’t accurately reflect recent trends in the more important variable — our actual carbon emissions.”
Quoting 11. JRRP7:



One of the toughest hurricane forecasts so far!!!
No model predicts La Niña conditions until May-Jul 2016, when the chance becomes just 4%, but the chances rise to just over 30% by Jun-Aug and to 50% or more beginning in Aug-Oct, reaching 60% or more for Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan 2016-17. Chances for neutral ENSO conditions rise to over 60% for May-Jul, and then fall back to about 40%, or lower, beginning in Jul-Sep and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.
Good post full of endless possibilities.
I chopped this line out of Pat's post at "33"

"In fact, a new study released by the journal Nature suggests that in a worst-case scenario, as many as 13 million people will be seriously affected by rising sea levels due to climate change by the end of this century."

If the sea level goes up by up to a meter by 2100, or more as some people estimate then a mere 13 million people will be like a "drop in the ocean!"
When you consider the effects of major shoreline flooding in cities like New York and New Orleans along with dozens of others, plus the effects of salt water intrusions in the fresh water supply, almost every person in low lying coastal cities will be moderately to seriously affected.
Then we also need to consider the loss of farmland.

Problem is all this is not a si-fi movie its already happening with over 8 inchs rise said to be in place already.

Then after all this quietly plods along, we get the real blockbuster of the increased damages by hurricanes and big storms like Sandy.
Quoting 35. wunderkidcayman:



Wrong answer


Dr. Masters' Blog quote

"Strong El Nio quickly weakening
February 2016 still featured strong El Nio conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) 1.8C above average on March 12 in the so-called Nio3.4 region (5S - 5N, 120W - 170W), where SSTs must be at least 1.5C above average to be considered a strong El Nio. El Nio is weakening quickly--the event peaked in strength in late November 2015, when the weekly Nio3.4 temperature anomaly hit a record 3.1C. NOAA expects a transition to neutral conditions during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a 50% chance of a transition to La Nia conditions during the fall."
Hi everyone :)
This is my first post on here, I find it interesting all the people calling that there is going to be a strong La Nina and an above average Atlantic hurricane season. It is almost the equinox and El Nino is still sitting in the strong category and I feel that not enough people realize that the large-scale atmospheric response lags around three months behind the SST anomalies. So, as of right now, we are seeing the effects from December/January's SSTA signature in the global atmosphere. With the SSTAs still sitting at 1.8C, we can expect to see the follow on effects in the atmosphere three months later, i.e June into July, gradually weakening as the anomalies do. For it to be an above average Atlantic season, we would want to see a cold pool already in place now, so by the time the hurricane season gets under way, the atmosphere would be feeling the effects of the colder water off Central America.
This is not the case, and as the Hi-res SSTA graphic clearly shows, there are still strong warm anomalies all the way down the coast of Peru in the 2C+ range with NO signs that the Humbolt current is coming back to life. Sure there are some weak sub-surface OHC anomalies, but the continued weak K.Waves have been holding them at depth.
Over the last few weeks the Nino 1.2 region has been experiencing warming at a rate of around 2-3C/week - the result of Kelvin wave #5 that was triggered by the huge WWB in January. K.Wave #6 pushed down weakly last month too, diluting the sub-surface cold pool trying to push east.
This doesn't look like an imminent La Nina to me. While there are some signs and the El Nino is certainly weakening, a transition to a strong La Nina this year is, in my opinion not looking very likely, especially when you compare it to what was happening this time of year in 1998 - not even close. There is SO much warm water in the Pacific, possibly to do with the change to a positive phase of the PDO.
Quoting 42. EyewallPaul:

Hi everyone :)
This is my first post on here, I find it interesting all the people calling that there is going to be a strong La Nina and an above average Atlantic hurricane season. It is almost the equinox and El Nino is still sitting in the strong category and I feel that not enough people realize that the large-scale atmospheric response lags around three months behind the SST anomalies. So, as of right now, we are seeing the effects from December/January's SSTA signature in the global atmosphere. With the SSTAs still sitting at 1.8C, we can expect to see the follow on effects in the atmosphere three months later, i.e June into July, gradually weakening as the anomalies do. For it to be an above average Atlantic season, we would want to see a cold pool already in place now, so by the time the hurricane season gets under way, the atmosphere would be feeling the effects of the colder water off Central America.
This is not the case, and as the Hi-res SSTA graphic clearly shows, there are still strong warm anomalies all the way down the coast of Peru in the 2C range with NO signs that the Humbolt current is coming back to life. Sure there are some weak sub-surface OHC anomalies, but the continued weak K.Waves have been holding them at depth.
Over the last few weeks the Nino 1.2 region has been experiencing warming at a rate of around 2-3C/week - the result of Kelvin wave #5 that was triggered by the huge WWB in January. K.Wave #6 pushed down weakly last month too, diluting the sub-surface cold pool trying to push east.
This doesn't look like an imminent La Nina to me. While there are some signs and the El Nino is certainly weakening, a transition to a strong La Nina this year is, in my opinion not looking very likely, especially when you compare it to what was happening this time of year in 1998 - not even close. There is SO much warm water in the Pacific, possibly to do with the change to a positive phase of the PDO.


First comment - Welcome to the blog.
Sanity and great Progress.

It matters.

WATCH: This Is The First Airport Run Completely On Solar Power
The airport will offset 300,000 tons of carbon emissions over the next 25 years.
03/17/2016 12:46 pm ET


VIDEO: The Cochin International Airport in India is the first airport in the world to run completely on solar power. In the video above, learn about the airport and the effect it will have in reducing carbon emissions.





Pouring with rain here in Orange Park, thunder too.

Euro still not backing down.
March Madness!
Quoting 46. washingtonian115:


Euro still not backing down.

I can tell you it has been a warm winter in C. Florida. It's been 3 years since we've had a good freeze (helps kill off the bugs and weeds). Fox13 showed 2 models foe rain for us this weekend. Both showing about .5". Nothing crazy that we would expect to see with such a strong El Niño year. We are quickly heading into the dry season.

Almost green beer time🍺🍺🍺
Quoting 48. Bucsboltsfan:

We are quickly heading into the dry season.




Summer is the wet season in FL, what are you talking about ?
Quoting 42. EyewallPaul:

Hi everyone :)
This is my first post on here, ...

Yes welcome to the blog. You'll find no shortage of nino debate here, to the chagrin of some indeed. Thanks for your insights in regards to the lag time with nino's atmospheric effects. Wondering specifically if any of our resident experts had more to add about this lag time in regards to horizontal wind shear in the Atlantic?
Quoting 19. wunderkidcayman:

Bye bye El Niño and welcome La Niña

I say El Niño is weakening faster than some think
I say La Niña will come sooner than some think
I say La Niña will be stronger than some think
I'm with you buddy. :)
Quoting 42. EyewallPaul:

Hi everyone :)
This is my first post on here, I find it interesting all the people calling that there is going to be a strong La Nina and an above average Atlantic hurricane season. It is almost the equinox and El Nino is still sitting in the strong category and I feel that not enough people realize that the large-scale atmospheric response lags around three months behind the SST anomalies. So, as of right now, we are seeing the effects from December/January's SSTA signature in the global atmosphere. With the SSTAs still sitting at 1.8C, we can expect to see the follow on effects in the atmosphere three months later, i.e June into July, gradually weakening as the anomalies do. For it to be an above average Atlantic season, we would want to see a cold pool already in place now, so by the time the hurricane season gets under way, the atmosphere would be feeling the effects of the colder water off Central America.
This is not the case, and as the Hi-res SSTA graphic clearly shows, there are still strong warm anomalies all the way down the coast of Peru in the 2C+ range with NO signs that the Humbolt current is coming back to life. Sure there are some weak sub-surface OHC anomalies, but the continued weak K.Waves have been holding them at depth.
Over the last few weeks the Nino 1.2 region has been experiencing warming at a rate of around 2-3C/week - the result of Kelvin wave #5 that was triggered by the huge WWB in January. K.Wave #6 pushed down weakly last month too, diluting the sub-surface cold pool trying to push east.
This doesn't look like an imminent La Nina to me. While there are some signs and the El Nino is certainly weakening, a transition to a strong La Nina this year is, in my opinion not looking very likely, especially when you compare it to what was happening this time of year in 1998 - not even close. There is SO much warm water in the Pacific, possibly to do with the change to a positive phase of the PDO.
Hello, I'm Andre Brooks and I'm 18 and I love the Lord and been interested in weather since September 6th, 2008. I have autism and adhd and it's nice to meet you. I'm going to Mississippi state university and become a meteorologist.
Quoting 49. MahFL:



Summer is the wet season in FL, what are you talking about ?


Huh? April/May isn't the summer and is a dry season. Our rainy season starts in June.
Quoting 49. MahFL:



Summer is the wet season in FL, what are you talking about ?


50% chance of rain for Saturday here in Fort Myers. I'm hoping it materializes, because we haven't had any rain this month (0.0").
Quoting 42. EyewallPaul:

Hi everyone :)
This is my first post on here, I find it interesting all the people calling that there is going to be a strong La Nina and an above average Atlantic hurricane season. It is almost the equinox and El Nino is still sitting in the strong category and I feel that not enough people realize that the large-scale atmospheric response lags around three months behind the SST anomalies. So, as of right now, we are seeing the effects from December/January's SSTA signature in the global atmosphere. With the SSTAs still sitting at 1.8C, we can expect to see the follow on effects in the atmosphere three months later, i.e June into July, gradually weakening as the anomalies do. For it to be an above average Atlantic season, we would want to see a cold pool already in place now, so by the time the hurricane season gets under way, the atmosphere would be feeling the effects of the colder water off Central America.
This is not the case, and as the Hi-res SSTA graphic clearly shows, there are still strong warm anomalies all the way down the coast of Peru in the 2C+ range with NO signs that the Humbolt current is coming back to life. Sure there are some weak sub-surface OHC anomalies, but the continued weak K.Waves have been holding them at depth.
Over the last few weeks the Nino 1.2 region has been experiencing warming at a rate of around 2-3C/week - the result of Kelvin wave #5 that was triggered by the huge WWB in January. K.Wave #6 pushed down weakly last month too, diluting the sub-surface cold pool trying to push east.
This doesn't look like an imminent La Nina to me. While there are some signs and the El Nino is certainly weakening, a transition to a strong La Nina this year is, in my opinion not looking very likely, especially when you compare it to what was happening this time of year in 1998 - not even close. There is SO much warm water in the Pacific, possibly to do with the change to a positive phase of the PDO.

Hi, my name is Malik Antwon Boggs. As Vibrant Planet has stated, you will find no shortage of El Nino debating here. Again, welcome to the Wunderground Community.
Large and cold air mass with 977 mb low off of Cape Cod..

Strong Atlantic La nina.

lol
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3h3 hours ago
Large area of 1-inch+ QPF from Wash DC to NYC to Boston = potential for 6-12"+ wet snowfall from Winter|Spring storm
Quoting 48. Bucsboltsfan:

I can tell you it has been a warm winter in C. Florida. It's been 3 years since we've had a good freeze (helps kill off the bugs and weeds). Fox13 showed 2 models foe rain for us this weekend. Both showing about .5". Nothing crazy that we would expect to see with such a strong El Nio year. We are quickly heading into the dry season.

Almost green beer time%uD83C%uDF7A%uD83C%uDF7A%uD83C%uDF7A


March rainfall has been well below average in most of Florida, so it's been dry El Nino or not.

Today was an interesting surprise here, we had a severe thunderstorm warning earlier with heavy rain and a lot of lightning, we didn't get any strong winds here, but some power lines were downed a couple miles SW of here.
Quoting 48. Bucsboltsfan:

I can tell you it has been a warm winter in C. Florida. It's been 3 years since we've had a good freeze (helps kill off the bugs and weeds). Fox13 showed 2 models foe rain for us this weekend. Both showing about .5". Nothing crazy that we would expect to see with such a strong El Niño year. We are quickly heading into the dry season.

Almost green beer time🍺🍺🍺
not heading into the dry season we are IN the dry season and have been for months...the dry season ends around june.
I thought the Fla wet,dry,wet season was a weekly thing ?

: P




My Bok Choi just emerged yesterday. The arugula and buttercrunch lettuces were up a week ahead of the Bok. Not sure where the red beets are yet....
SE PA here and I really do not want snow. Raised beds that look like a single bed.... all good as I can take a single fitted sheet and cover the babies here:) The elastic usually works. When winds are high, I tie down with my 'S' hooks. I really do not want the snow this weekend:{
Quoting 61. Patrap:

I thought the Fla wet,dry,wet season was a weekly thing ?

: P





If you don't like the weather in the South.... just give it about 10 minutes...
Quoting 42. EyewallPaul:

Hi everyone :)
While there are some signs and the El Nino is certainly weakening, a transition to a strong La Nina this year is, in my opinion not looking very likely, especially when you compare it to what was happening this time of year in 1998 - not even close. There is SO much warm water in the Pacific, possibly to do with the change to a positive phase of the PDO.



SSTs around this time of the year were just as warm, if not warmer, along the coast of Peru in 1998 and were warmer in the Nino 1 2 region:



And that area was the last nino area to cool down fully in the 1998 El Nino/La Nina transition:



Yet the 1998 hurricane season was very active, 14-10-3 with an ACE of 182 (7th highest). With El Nino/La Nina transitions, they tend to happen very quickly and this El Nino seems to be starting to weaken faster now. Even taking into account the atmospheric lag to SSTs, we'll need to be seeing Neutal-La Nina conditions by May/June/July for atmospheric conditions to be as such for August/September/October - the heart of the hurricane season. But in saying that, one of the biggest factors impeding TC formation is the increased windshear caused by an El Nino and that may not take 3 months to respond. Certainly will be an interesting year.
Could CaribBoy's pleas for water be answered?
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 500 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TAUNTON MA - KBOX 545 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 438 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
500 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT  
 
* AT 500 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MONTICELLO TO NEAR RUTH...MOVING EAST AT 45  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
HOLLY SPRINGS...SOCIETY HILL...OAK VALE...BUNKER HILL...JAYESS...  
TILTON...GOSS AND TOPEKA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 172201Z - 172330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
APPEARS MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE
INTO SWRN GA. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS THIS
REGION AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS THAT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS MS.
LATEST MRMS DATA SUGGESTS HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IS NOTED IN THE MOST
ROBUST UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER WEAKER LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT ONGOING
ACTIVITY MAY NOT WARRANT WW ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW/GOSS.. 03/17/2016


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 46
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
CELLS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&
From the Miami NWS Disco...

Finally, some change in our weather pattern...

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THEY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TEXAS, ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. A CLOSED SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST AND A 500MB LOW
DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE MID WEST, BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE SFC WIND GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE
UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE AREA, HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY EARLY
MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT SHOULD
PUSH OUT OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT, DRY WEATHER, UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
BACK IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BRING SOME COOLER
AIR TO SOUTH FLORIDA AS WELL, WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO REACH ONLY
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON MONDAY. THE LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR, WEST OF THE LAKE TO
LOW 60S.

Link
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
539 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT  
 
* AT 539 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER  
FRANKLINTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT  
WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...VARNADO...MOUNT HERMAN AND ANGIE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 544 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 642 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 640 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 539 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 536 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 529 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 528 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 526 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 521 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
2" hail reported in Franklinton on the N shore

The GFS is on that snow drug...and I'm not talking about the type that pertains to weather either....
At midday? I don't think so washi :)
So, this Nino is down to +1.7C now, down from a peak of +3.1C. It weakened a lot over the past few days except today. I'm still thinking weak to moderate (but likely not strong) La Niña for 2016-17 with a stronger Nina possible in 2017-18.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
620 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
WEST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHERN ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT  
 
* AT 619 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KENTWOOD TO LAKE PELBA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
BATON ROUGE...HAMMOND...ZACHARY...BAKER...DENHAM SPRINGS...  
PLAQUEMINE...PORT ALLEN...GREENSBURG...AMITE...OAK HILLS PLACE...  
ST. GABRIEL...WALKER...AMITE CITY...ADDIS...BRUSLY...WHITE  
CASTLE...LIVINGSTON...INDEPENDENCE...ROSELAND AND FRENCH  
SETTLEMENT.  
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
625 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
WESTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT  
 
* AT 625 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR POPLARVILLE TO NEAR INDEPENDENCE...MOVING SOUTH  
AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
BOGALUSA...PICAYUNE...COVINGTON...ABITA SPRINGS...MADISONVILLE...  
FOLSOM...SUN...CROSSROADS...ROBERT...BUSH...ENON AND MCNEIL.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
Quoting 78. BaltimoreBrian:

At midday? I don't think so washi :)
The sun angle alone would eat away at what ever snow is trying to fall.Its just another one of the GFS snow fantasy storms.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0622 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
VALID 172322Z - 180015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF WW46 OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...PROGRESSIVE MCS HAS MATURED AND EXPANDED IN AREAL
COVERAGE OVER SERN LA/MS/AL EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS PROPAGATING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 30KT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER REFLECTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF WW46 BY 01Z. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY AID FURTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA BEYOND WATCH EXPIRATION BUT AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY MAY NOT PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A NEW WATCH. LARGE
HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..DARROW.. 03/17/2016


ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...H GX...

LAT...LON 32719461 32068770 30208770 30849461 32719461
Fresh article of "Deutsche Welle English":

What a Trump win would mean for the environment
Trump has clinched yet another key victory and could become the next US president. But a President Trump could, with the stroke of a pen, undo reams of environmental law - and endanger the global climate agreement.
Date 17.03.2016, Author David Keating

And a good night from Germany anyway.
Quoting 77. washingtonian115:

The GFS is on that snow drug...and I'm not talking about the type that pertains to weather either....

Good ole fashion long range 18z gfs run ;^)
Fascism under the guise of Poplar Nationalism cannot work in the USA.

Not evah'

Semper Fi'
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
643 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
EAST CENTRAL PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT  
 
* AT 643 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST  
OF POPLARVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
POPLARVILLE...SAUCIER AND KILN.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 

College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 644 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016

The exit of the Fort Worth Zoo Museum of Living Art (MOLA) after a Hailstorm

Hailstorms Kill Animals At The Fort Worth Zoo
UPDATED | March 17, 2016 12:21 PM


FORT WORTH (CBSDFW.COM) The Fort Worth Zoo delayed their opening until noon on Thursday, after hailstorms killed several animals.

Zoo spokesperson Alexis Wilson said veterinarians were treating a few animals at the hospital, but that a several fowl were killed by falling hailstones. Five flamingos, a pelican and a couple of other small birds. So, it was a difficult morning to come in and discover those things, she said.But we also have a park that was covered in with ice.
Wilson said injuries to the surviving animals are not considered serious. We did have a few birds injured, they are over in our hospital. We do have an animal hospital on premises. Some of them were just a little stunned, probably had gotten hit by hailstones.



Damage at the zoo could be seen on the ground and from the air. The pathway leading to the front of the elephant exhibit was nearly completely covered with hailstones. Hail mounds up to almost a foot greeted workers at the exit from the Zoo Museum of Living Art (MOLA).

Numerous skylights throughout the Zoo were damaged, in addition to roofs of buildings and vehicles belonging to employees and the park.

Workers at the park had to check on and care for animals, as well as clear pathways littered with hail. Before allowing visitors inside, officials said they would open the Zoo as soon as they could, but that the safety of our guests and employees is our first concern.

Zoo visitors had no intention of letting the weather impact their plans, but the delayed opening meant hundreds of people lined up outside the park. The Fort Worth Zoo did meet their deadline and opened the gates right about noon. Every part of the Zoo, including the bird exhibit, was open to visitors.

(2016 CBS Local Media, a division of CBS Radio Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Wowza. the squall line outflow boundary just blew thru and the storms are like down the street coming in.

Awesome drop in temp by maybe 10F or greater.







made it to 81.6F my place.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
738 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT  
 
* AT 738 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH  
TORNADOES AND EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WERE LOCATED 8  
MILES WEST OF WADE...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ESCATAWPA...MOVING  
EAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WILL BE NEAR...  
WADE AND HURLEY AROUND 755 PM CDT.  
BIG POINT AROUND 800 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT  
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
755 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...  
SOUTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT  
 
* AT 755 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER I65 AND AL  
59...OR NEAR BAY MINETTE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
ATMORE...BAY MINETTE...I65 AND AL 287...I65 AND AL 225...I65 AND AL 59  
AND I65 AND CR 47.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
Quoting 48. Bucsboltsfan:

I can tell you it has been a warm winter in C. Florida. It's been 3 years since we've had a good freeze (helps kill off the bugs and weeds). Fox13 showed 2 models foe rain for us this weekend. Both showing about .5". Nothing crazy that we would expect to see with such a strong El Niño year. We are quickly heading into the dry season.

Almost green beer time🍺🍺🍺

Yes, it has been a warm winter in Central Florida....i don't know where you live but we have had some freezes in Sanford the past few winters. Last winter we got down to 27 degrees one night
104. vis0
Gonna have to look up NOAA & webbers charts) for the fastest changeover from  Moderate NinoModerate Nina and vice-versa. Meaning how fast from a Nino 2.0 or stronger/higher temperature anomaly to a Nina -2.0 stronger/ lower temperature anomaly, why? To learn.
Venezuela to Shut Down for a Week to Cope With Electricity Crisis
Link
Though IMO while the El Nino is a factor in this, its corrupt government has more of a factor of causing this crisis. This is a pretty big crisis for the country though, shut down for 1 week, sheesh.

I may not be the most knowledgable on Weather but this is my predictions for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

I would say a La Nina will be in by August. This El Nino, while very strong is collapsing at a rate similar to 1997-1998.

The SSTs in the Atlantic will be a little bit above average in the MDR and really above average in the Carribean and GOM.

If their is a La Nina there will probably be higher chance for a GOM Major Hurricane. La Nina years usually have some significant Hurricane landfalls in the US.

Above average activity in the Atlantic is my prediction, again take this with a grain of salt as I am not a very knowledgeable person compared to some of you guys. :]

TS/H/MH
16/7/4
Interstate 10 is closed at the Sabine River. This is huge. Due to the flooding upstream, there is really no goo way to cross south of I-20. Down stream there is a beach road one might use, but it can only carry about 10 percent of the traffic that 1-10 would carry.

http://www.chron.com/houston/article/I-10-still-c losed-at-Tx-La-border-6895288.php

Note the picture. The man is sitting on an easy chair on the roof of his house and watching the water go by.
Quoting 89. Patrap:

Fascism under the guise of Poplar Nationalism cannot work in the USA.

Not evah'

Semper Fi'



I hope that is the case but the evidence so far is the other way. All he needs is the right mustache.
Quoting 89. Patrap:

Fascism under the guise of Poplar Nationalism cannot work in the USA.

Not evah'

Semper Fi'


We are uniting behind fear, racism, and the celebration of anti-intellectualism. The form of Nationalism we are embracing represents everything we've tried to leave behind in America. The truth about who we are is raising it's ugly head and the truth is we have as far as ever to go to re-embracing our core principles that made us a great country in the first place.
Quoting 108. DeepSeaRising:



We are uniting behind fear, racism, and the celebration of anti-intellectualism. The form of Nationalism we are embracing represents everything we've tried to leave behind in America. The truth about who we are is raising it's ugly head and the truth is we have as far as ever to go to re-embracing our core principles that made us a great country in the first place.
Quoting 108. DeepSeaRising:



We are uniting behind fear, racism, and the celebration of anti-intellectualism. The form of Nationalism we are embracing represents everything we've tried to leave behind in America. The truth about who we are is raising it's ugly head and the truth is we have as far as ever to go to re-embracing our core principles that made us a great country in the first place.

It appears to me that the working class are uniting because they are tired of supporting the able bodied non working class.
Quoting 105. Cyclone2016:

Venezuela to Shut Down for a Week to Cope With Electricity Crisis
Link
Though IMO while the El Nino is a factor in this, its corrupt government has more of a factor of causing this crisis. This is a pretty big crisis for the country though, shut down for 1 week, sheesh.

I may not be the most knowledgable on Weather but this is my predictions for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

I would say a La Nina will be in by August. This El Nino, while very strong is collapsing at a rate similar to 1997-1998.

The SSTs in the Atlantic will be a little bit above average in the MDR and really above average in the Carribean and GOM.

If their is a La Nina there will probably be higher chance for a GOM Major Hurricane. La Nina years usually have some significant Hurricane landfalls in the US.

Above average activity in the Atlantic is my prediction, again take this with a grain of salt as I am not a very knowledgeable person compared to some of you guys. :]

TS/H/MH
16/7/4




Guys when making your hurricane forecaste don't for get we all ready had Alex in JAN. So you need too - or add one more too the toll depending on how you may feel about hurricane season. And we all ready had are 1st hurricane of the season the season has all ready started in JAN If conditions turn out this right we could end up with a vary Busy May if that comes true we have less then a month has April is fast approaching so start getting ready now MAY could end up be a vary Active month for names storm. But we need the right conditions


This think if Alex could reach 85mph winds in JAN this think what the rest of the season could be like I think this season we could be in Big trouble I can this feel it
After 0.51 from today's severe T'storm warning, we have a nice steady rain with some thunder and more on the way from the west tonight, and models bring in a lot more tomorrow as well and Saturday thanks to upper energy riding the stalling front. It's about time, March is typically a pretty wet month here, but we had only 0.88 for this month from one event near the begging of the month.

Current guidance has trended wetter, and if it's correct, we might see widespread 2-4 inches here, which will be well welcomed.
Quoting 103. sanflee76:


Yes, it has been a warm winter in Central Florida....i don't know where you live but we have had some freezes in Sanford the past few winters. Last winter we got down to 27 degrees one night


He lives in Pinellas County, which is where I'm from when not in Tallahassee, the high population and warm waters around the county means it gets generally notably warmer low temps than most inland areas in Central Florida. Freezing temps and lows even below 40 are becoming less and less common there. Coconut trees in most coastal regions of the Tampa Bay area are becoming pretty popular as winters get more mild. The warm sunny days, sandy soil, heavy summer rain, and warm winters are all ideal for coconut palms.
Quoting 79. BaltimoreBrian:

Followup: In Shift, Obama Won't Open Southeast Atlantic Coast to Drilling


There are a lot of things Obama has done I haven't been a fan of, but I appreciate his environmental improvements. I believe in giving credit where credit is due.
Quoting 110. Tazmanian:




Guys when making your hurricane forecaste don't for get we all ready had Alex in JAN. So you need too - or add one more too the toll depending on how you may feel about hurricane season. And we all ready had are 1st hurricane of the season the season has all ready started in JAN If conditions turn out this right we could end up with a vary Busy May if that comes true we have less then a month has April is fast approaching so start getting ready now MAY could end up be a vary Active month for names storm. But we need the right conditions


This think if Alex could reach 85mph winds in JAN this think what the rest of the season could be like I think this season we could be in Big trouble I can this feel it
I agree bud, maybe they should expand the hurricane season out.
Quoting 110. Tazmanian:




Guys when making your hurricane forecaste don't for get we all ready had Alex in JAN. So you need too - or add one more too the toll depending on how you may feel about hurricane season. And we all ready had are 1st hurricane of the season the season has all ready started in JAN If conditions turn out this right we could end up with a vary Busy May if that comes true we have less then a month has April is fast approaching so start getting ready now MAY could end up be a vary Active month for names storm. But we need the right conditions


This think if Alex could reach 85mph winds in JAN this think what the rest of the season could be like I think this season we could be in Big trouble I can this feel it


Taz, Alex was able to get as strong as it did because the environment wasn't classically barotropic. Steep lapse rates (temperature decrease with height) between the warm SSTs and very cold upper troposphere enabled intensification over waters that were well-below 26C. It doesn't have any bearing on the rest of the season at all.
There was a discussion of climate and weather on the previous post by Dr. Masters/Bob Henson.

It's true that one way we measure climate in by observing weather and taking the long term averages and variability as a quantification of climate.

But really climate is a function of the amount of radiation coming from the Sun (controlled by the Sun's output and changes in the orbit of the Earth around it), the composition of the atmosphere and the existence of vast amounts of water, the topology of the Earth and even the biosphere. Together those factors combine to form a heat engine that drives ocean currents and atmospheric reactions to move heat around. It is within that context that weather occurs and the variability of weather lies within an envelope determined by the climatic factor. So I would say that weather is an emergent property of climate.
Quoting 42. EyewallPaul:

Hi everyone :)
This is my first post on here, I find it interesting all the people calling that there is going to be a strong La Nina and an above average Atlantic hurricane season. It is almost the equinox and El Nino is still sitting in the strong category and I feel that not enough people realize that the large-scale atmospheric response lags around three months behind the SST anomalies. So, as of right now, we are seeing the effects from December/January's SSTA signature in the global atmosphere. With the SSTAs still sitting at 1.8C, we can expect to see the follow on effects in the atmosphere three months later, i.e June into July, gradually weakening as the anomalies do. For it to be an above average Atlantic season, we would want to see a cold pool already in place now, so by the time the hurricane season gets under way, the atmosphere would be feeling the effects of the colder water off Central America.
This is not the case, and as the Hi-res SSTA graphic clearly shows, there are still strong warm anomalies all the way down the coast of Peru in the 2C+ range with NO signs that the Humbolt current is coming back to life. Sure there are some weak sub-surface OHC anomalies, but the continued weak K.Waves have been holding them at depth.
Over the last few weeks the Nino 1.2 region has been experiencing warming at a rate of around 2-3C/week - the result of Kelvin wave #5 that was triggered by the huge WWB in January. K.Wave #6 pushed down weakly last month too, diluting the sub-surface cold pool trying to push east.
This doesn't look like an imminent La Nina to me. While there are some signs and the El Nino is certainly weakening, a transition to a strong La Nina this year is, in my opinion not looking very likely, especially when you compare it to what was happening this time of year in 1998 - not even close. There is SO much warm water in the Pacific, possibly to do with the change to a positive phase of the PDO.


I don't agree with you, but finally... somebody that sensibly argues the opposing side.

Welcome to the blog! Your introductory post wasn't bad at all. I kinda like you. :)
Quoting 42. EyewallPaul:

Hi everyone :)
This is my first post on here, I find it interesting all the people calling that there is going to be a strong La Nina and an above average Atlantic hurricane season. It is almost the equinox and El Nino is still sitting in the strong category and I feel that not enough people realize that the large-scale atmospheric response lags around three months behind the SST anomalies. So, as of right now, we are seeing the effects from December/January's SSTA signature in the global atmosphere. With the SSTAs still sitting at 1.8C, we can expect to see the follow on effects in the atmosphere three months later, i.e June into July, gradually weakening as the anomalies do. For it to be an above average Atlantic season, we would want to see a cold pool already in place now, so by the time the hurricane season gets under way, the atmosphere would be feeling the effects of the colder water off Central America.
This is not the case, and as the Hi-res SSTA graphic clearly shows, there are still strong warm anomalies all the way down the coast of Peru in the 2C range with NO signs that the Humbolt current is coming back to life. Sure there are some weak sub-surface OHC anomalies, but the continued weak K.Waves have been holding them at depth.
Over the last few weeks the Nino 1.2 region has been experiencing warming at a rate of around 2-3C/week - the result of Kelvin wave #5 that was triggered by the huge WWB in January. K.Wave #6 pushed down weakly last month too, diluting the sub-surface cold pool trying to push east.
This doesn't look like an imminent La Nina to me. While there are some signs and the El Nino is certainly weakening, a transition to a strong La Nina this year is, in my opinion not looking very likely, especially when you compare it to what was happening this time of year in 1998 - not even close. There is SO much warm water in the Pacific, possibly to do with the change to a positive phase of the PDO.


btw, as a follow-up rebuttal to your [well-informed] post:

1998:



2016:



1998 and 2016 are actually very similar. I also don't think you realize how quickly we can transition from El Nino to La Nina, and vise versa. Even supposing Alex was our only storm until the middle to latter part of August, we could still quite easily end up above average, especially in terms of hurricanes and intense hurricanes.
Quoting 112. Jedkins01:



He lives in Pinellas County, which is where I'm from when not in Tallahassee, the high population and warm waters around the county means it gets generally notably warmer low temps than most inland areas in Central Florida. Freezing temps and lows even below 40 are becoming less and less common there. Coconut trees in most coastal regions of the Tampa Bay area are becoming pretty popular as winters get more mild. The warm sunny days, sandy soil, heavy summer rain, and warm winters are all ideal for coconut palms.


Yes, I live in Palm Harbor and we have not had a freeze in 3 years. I've lived here for 50 years and never remember going 3 years without a feeeze.
Good Morning Folks; rainy evening last night in the Florida Big Bend but it was all good..............Helped to suppress and wash off some of the yellow-green pollen that pretty much covers everything around the oaks and we have thousands of them in Tallahassee.

Here is the Conus forecast for today: a nice cool down across the board.



Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2016

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 18 2016 - 12Z Sun Mar 20 2016

...Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain possible across portions of
the Gulf Coast states...

...Heavy snow possible for portions of the Wyoming and Colorado Rockies as
well as the Front Range...

...Colder temperatures on the way for much of the central and eastern U.S.
by Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along a nearly
stationary boundary spanning from central Texas to the Southeast into the
weekend. Some of the storms over the Gulf states may turn severe this
afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this
region as having a slight risk for severe weather. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible for portions of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
and western Florida. Please refer to products issued by SPC for further
details on the severe weather threat.

A wave of low pressure will develop along the front on Saturday over the
lower Mississippi Valley; which in turn, with help maintain convective
initiation over the Gulf states. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms could potentially track slowly over the same region,
yielding 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, across much
of the Gulf Coast through by Saturday night.

A vast portion of the central and eastern U.S. will have a significant
drop in temperatures over the next few days. Colder air will spill into
the area as two cold fronts plunge south and east. The first cold front
push through the lower Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley today, with a
mix of rain and show showers possible ahead of and along the front. The
rain will transition over to snow for the Northeast today. Snowfall
accumulations are expected to be fairly light, with 1 to 3 inches possible
at the higher elevations of the Northeast as well as the central
Appalachians.

The second frontal system will track across the Central Plains and
portions of the Rockies through the day. This system will bring the
potential for heavy snow to portions of the Colorado and Wyoming Rockies
as well as the Front Range. Snowfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are
possible, with 1 to 2 feet possible at the highest elevations. Several
Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect today in
Wyoming and Colorado. A mix of rain and snow will also fall across
portions of the central plains as colder air moves into that region behind
the front. Portions of central Kansas also have Winter Weather Advisories
in effect.

In the wake of the frontal passage, afternoon high temperatures for
Saturday are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees below average across much of
the central and eastern U.S., with some areas of the Southern Plains 10 to

20 degrees below average.


The current look and relative location of the jet:


And finally the lows for this morning and convective outlook:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Lots of folks up here in the Big Bend are cancelling planned fishing trips for the weekend as seas will be a bit choppy on Saturday and Sunday....................My friends and I are reloading for next weekend:

Quoting 124. Longjohn119:

Just as I thought, still no signs what so ever of Global Warming .......


I know, right? I changed my mind after the NWS started indicating overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s for this weekend here in south Louisiana. The heart of winter would be one thing, but meteorological spring is another.

They just don't get it. :/
FROM THE ATLANTIC......

The storm that will unfreeze the North Pole

he sun has not risen above the North Pole since mid-September. The sea ice — flat, landlike, windswept, and stretching as far as the eye can see—has been bathed in darkness for months.

But later this week, something extraordinary will happen: Air temperatures at the Earth’s most northernly region, in the middle of winter, will rise above freezing for only the second time on record.

"On Wednesday, the same storm system that last week spun up deadly tornadoes in the American southeast will burst into the far north, centering over Iceland. It will bring strong winds and pressure as low as is typically seen during hurricanes.

That low pressure will suck air out of the planet’s middle latitudes and send it rushing to the Arctic. And so on Wednesday, the North Pole will likely see temperatures of about 35 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2 degrees Celsius. That’s 50 degrees hotter than average: It’s usually 20 degrees Fahrenheit below zero there at this time of year."


Link
Quoting 126. Grothar:

FROM THE ATLANTIC......

The storm that will unfreeze the North Pole

he sun has not risen above the North Pole since mid-September. The sea ice — flat, landlike, windswept, and stretching as far as the eye can see—has been bathed in darkness for months.

But later this week, something extraordinary will happen: Air temperatures at the Earth’s most northernly region, in the middle of winter, will rise above freezing for only the second time on record.

"On Wednesday, the same storm system that last week spun up deadly tornadoes in the American southeast will burst into the far north, centering over Iceland. It will bring strong winds and pressure as low as is typically seen during hurricanes.

That low pressure will suck air out of the planet’s middle latitudes and send it rushing to the Arctic. And so on Wednesday, the North Pole will likely see temperatures of about 35 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2 degrees Celsius. That’s 50 degrees hotter than average: It’s usually 20 degrees Fahrenheit below zero there at this time of year."


Link


Funny thing about this old news story, it never actually happened.
Quoting 127. nymore:



Funny thing about this old news story, it never actually happened.


But one single event (or non-event) does not show the complete picture.........................

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/global-temps.sh tml


Earth’s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), as reported on NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) website. The record-breaking year continues a long-term warming trend — 15 of the 16 warmest years on record have now occurred since 2001.


2015 global temperature anomaly
NOAA also says - "The “pause” in global warming observed since 2000 followed a period of rapid acceleration in the late 20th century. Starting in the mid-1970s, global temperatures rose 0.5 °C over a period of 25 years. Since the turn of the century, however, the change in Earth’s global mean surface temperature has been close to zero. Yet despite the halt in acceleration, each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850."

It's here:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/ why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-r ising-past-decade

So once again, short term weather variations do not make a case for global warming.
130. JRRP7

Hi Gro-

David Dilley of Global Weather oscillations says the US will get 11 tropical cyclone hits in 2016/2017 - the most since 2004/2005. There are 4 hot spots. I wonder where Florida/Louisiana/Texas/Carolinas fit in these?

What say you?
131.rmbjoe19549:09 AM EDT on March 18, 2016

Assuming that normal enso climatology remains the norm, it will depend on what phase we are in during the peak period. There will always be some exceptions to the rule but lots of research has been done on general trajectory patterns during El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral peaks; some favor the Caribbean, some favor the Gulf and Florida, and others favor Florida and the East Coast. We will have to wait until August-September to see where the A-B high settles in for the peak period and what enso phase we are in at that time to get a general idea of what regions of the US might be at greatest risk this season.
Quoting 42. EyewallPaul:

Hi everyone :)
This is my first post on here, I find it interesting all the people calling that there is going to be a strong La Nina and an above average Atlantic hurricane season. It is almost the equinox and El Nino is still sitting in the strong category and I feel that not enough people realize that the large-scale atmospheric response lags around three months behind the SST anomalies. So, as of right now, we are seeing the effects from December/January's SSTA signature in the global atmosphere. With the SSTAs still sitting at 1.8C, we can expect to see the follow on effects in the atmosphere three months later, i.e June into July, gradually weakening as the anomalies do. For it to be an above average Atlantic season, we would want to see a cold pool already in place now, so by the time the hurricane season gets under way, the atmosphere would be feeling the effects of the colder water off Central America.
This is not the case, and as the Hi-res SSTA graphic clearly shows, there are still strong warm anomalies all the way down the coast of Peru in the 2C+ range with NO signs that the Humbolt current is coming back to life. Sure there are some weak sub-surface OHC anomalies, but the continued weak K.Waves have been holding them at depth.
Over the last few weeks the Nino 1.2 region has been experiencing warming at a rate of around 2-3C/week - the result of Kelvin wave #5 that was triggered by the huge WWB in January. K.Wave #6 pushed down weakly last month too, diluting the sub-surface cold pool trying to push east.
This doesn't look like an imminent La Nina to me. While there are some signs and the El Nino is certainly weakening, a transition to a strong La Nina this year is, in my opinion not looking very likely, especially when you compare it to what was happening this time of year in 1998 - not even close. There is SO much warm water in the Pacific, possibly to do with the change to a positive phase of the PDO.


Hey paul...nice first post.....i wanted to address some of the things you've said in your first post.......

i don't think anyone without being tongue in cheek expects a strong la nina...i think some might hope for it......but i've seen no one pose any evidence for a strong event.....

as for the pdo in a positive phase...we've had three strong la nina's...and they have all transpired when the pdo is negative....so the chance of a strong event by climatology would be negligible......

now while i also agree that there is a lag in atmospheric response time as to the affects of el nino/la nina.....if you trust the model consensus...we may very well see neutral conditions in the april/may time frame.....that means that during the peak of the season the atmospheric conditions will be more conducive to hurricane development and if some models are again to be trusted...the end of the season may very well be affected (slight chance) by la nina conditions..

i would also say...that last year with conditions of moderate and strong el nino we still managed to eek out an average season of named storms...even though the intensity was below average.....
Digressing from the weather for the moment, but in keeping with Mother Nature which we admire, a new set of Hubble shots being released; amazing

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/03/hubble-unv eils-monster-stars


Hubble unveils monster stars

135. ariot
Quoting 124. Longjohn119:

Just as I thought, still no signs what so ever of Global Warming .......


Yeah. I won't accept the facts either, until we all burst into flame.
Quoting 131. rmbjoe1954:

Hi Gro-

David Dilley of Global Weather oscillations says the US will get 11 tropical cyclone hits in 2016/2017 - the most since 2004/2005. There are 4 hot spots. I wonder where Florida/Louisiana/Texas/Carolinas fit in these?

What say you?


LOL...is this the same david dilley that said global cooling started in 2008.....

and i also remember that years ago....when someone brought up his claims of being 100 percent right the year before of tropical predictions....actual research showed he was almost completely wrong....

anyways...he would make an excellent blogger
Quoting 135. ariot:



Yeah. I won't accept the facts either, until we all burst into flame.



i still stand by my claim....there is no global warming

138. JRRP7
Quoting 133. ricderr:



Hey paul...nice first post.....i wanted to address some of the things you've said in your first post.......

i don't think anyone without being tongue in cheek expects a strong la nina...i think some might hope for it......but i've seen no one pose any evidence for a strong event.....

as for the pdo in a positive phase...we've had three strong la nina's...and they have all transpired when the pdo is negative....so the chance of a strong event by climatology would be negligible......

now while i also agree that there is a lag in atmospheric response time as to the affects of el nino/la nina.....if you trust the model consensus...we may very well see neutral conditions in the april/may time frame.....that means that during the peak of the season the atmospheric conditions will be more conducive to hurricane development and if some models are again to be trusted...the end of the season may very well be affected (slight chance) by la nina conditions..

i would also say...that last year with conditions of moderate and strong el nino we still managed to eek out an average season of named storms...even though the intensity was below average.....

+1
Quoting 136. ricderr:



LOL...is this the same david dilley that said global cooling started in 2008.....

and i also remember that years ago....when someone brought up his claims of being 100 percent right the year before of tropical predictions....actual research showed he was almost completely wrong....

anyways...he would make an excellent blogger


Hi Ric-

Dilley would clearly spark life on this blog. I wouldn't think he'd last one month into hurricane season though. lol.
Quoting 128. weathermanwannabe:



But one single event (or non-event) does not show the complete picture.........................

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/global-temps.sh tml


Earth%u2019s 2015 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), as reported onNASA%u2019s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) website. The record-breaking year continues a long-term warming trend %u2014 15 of the 16 warmest years on record have now occurred since 2001.


2015 global temperature anomaly
Why is everyone on the climate change bandwagon using such a very, very short time scale to cry the sky is falling. These cycles have happened in the past with higher CO2 levels, so why will it not happen again, it's just this time the humans are present to record it, and not tree rings or ice cores. Also we have not been using satellites to record the temps for the last 165 yrs. These warming and cooling cycles the Earth has experienced in the past are caused by other factors, then just CO2. Man has contributed to increasing the CO2 levels in the atmosphere , but how much of the temp changes are caused solely by man made CO2? If you want to tax someone, tax the people and companies that are pouring all their pollutants into our waters and air, at least that is something we can control, and would also greatly benefit the environment, thus helping everyone out, except the polluters.
Quoting 140. NativeSun:

why is everyone on the climate change bandwagon using such a very, very short time scale to cry the sky is falling. These cycles have happened in the past with higher CO2 levels, so why will it not happen again, it's just this time the humans are present to record it, and not tree rings or ice cores. Also we have not been using satellites to record the temps for the last 165 yrs. These warming and cooling cycles the Earth has experienced in the past are caused by other factors, then just CO2. Man has contributed to increasing the CO2 levels in the atmosphere , but how much of the temp changes are caused solely by man made CO2? If you want to tax someone, tax the people and companies that are pouring all their pollutants into our waters and air, at least that is something we can control, and would also greatly benefit the environment, thus helping everyone out, except the polluters.


Gibberish and nonsense. We have repeatedly linked you to the science that answers these concerns. The real issue here is economic motivated reasoning which allows you the convenience of denying science.
Quoting 135. ariot:



Yeah. I won't accept the facts either, until we all burst into flame.
No need to worry about that for a few billion years or when the sun turns into a Red Giant, and destroys the inner planets, or if their is a large meteor strike, or nuclear war.
Quoting 140. NativeSun:

Man has contributed to increasing the CO2 levels in the atmosphere , but how much of the temp changes are caused solely by man made CO2?

Between 110 and 120%.
Naturally it should be cooling, you see. But oh well, you talk magic cycles without knowing what you are talking about at all.


Quoting 143. cRRKampen:


Between 110 and 120%.
Naturally it should be cooling, you see. But oh well, you talk magic cycles without knowing what you are talking about at all.


Indeed, for all of the "knowledge" of earth cycles, it's puzzling that this fact - that we are headed towards a "glacial maximum" instead of away from it, is omitted.  
Looks like snow for southern New England, possibly the largest amount this "winter".  Gotta love March!
Welcome to the anthropocene era.
It has been a very warm February, and now I know that we are not alone; it's the whole world!
After a much warmer than average winter, we are returning to average temperatures here today in Chicagoland. We might even get a little wet snow on top of the muddy ground in the next couple of days. It's 41° F. at 10:00 a.m. and the solar collectors are heating that side of the house up to 75° already. Free heat.
The lilacs are leafing-out. The daffodils are twelve inches high and ready to flower. The magnolia buds are swelling. I don't think the freezing temperatures will hurt them this year, if it gets down to 27° or so.
Palm Sunday is this weekend, on the first day of spring.


Drought Doubles South African Potato Prices to Record High

The nation last year suffered its lowest rainfall since records began in 1904, cutting output of crops such as grains, wine grapes and peanuts. Farmers in potato-producing provinces such as Limpopo, which has the biggest output, the Free State and the North West need rain to fill boreholes and dams.

Link


The PMD rainfall statement shows unprecedented rainfall so far in March this year.

During the sixteen days from March 1 to March 16, Islamabad received 149mm against the normal 87.7mm; Faisalabad 126.1mm against 92.4mm; Jhelum 98.3mm against 65.9mm; Sialkot 87.1mm against 52.8mm; Sargodha 133.1mm against 32.4mm and Mandi Bahauddin 122mm against 33.9mm.

Bannu has received 59mm against 29.8mm; Kotli (AJK) 130mm against 128.5mm; Rawalakot 230.1mm against 165.8mm; Cherat 185mm against 90.5mm and Malam Jabba 284mm against 76.4mm.


Link
Quoting 131. rmbjoe1954:

Hi Gro-

David Dilley of Global Weather oscillations says the US will get 11 tropical cyclone hits in 2016/2017 - the most since 2004/2005. There are 4 hot spots. I wonder where Florida/Louisiana/Texas/Carolinas fit in these?

What say you?


Above average season. And hot!!
Seabird die-off takes twist with carcasses in Alaska lake

Murres occasionally land in fresh water, Piatt said.

"You figure it's a misguided individual. To have 6,000, 8,000 birds in the lake is pretty mind-blowing, really," he said. "I've never heard of any such a thing anywhere in the world."

Abnormal numbers of dead common murres, all apparently starved, began washing ashore on Alaska beaches in March 2015. After late-December storms, 8,000 were found at the Prince William Sound community of Whittier. The confirmed carcass count is now up to 36,000, but most don't wash ashore. Also, Alaska has more coastline than the rest of the United States put together and relatively few beaches have been surveyed.


Link
Quoting 141. Naga5000:



Gibberish and nonsense. We have repeatedly linked you to the science that answers these concerns. The real issue here is economic motivated reasoning which allows you the convenience of denying science.


Funny how the guardians of undenied science are often the first to deny the science and proven record of hydroelectric and nuclear power as the cleanest and safest form of energy, both of which coincidentally don't require fiscal suicide or authoritarian control.
Quoting 150. civEngineer:



Funny how the guardians of undenied science are often the first to deny the science and proven record of hydroelectric and nuclear power as the cleanest and safest form of energy, both of which coincidentally don't require fiscal suicide or authoritarian control.


I don't think that was meant to be directed at me. That is a big assumption about myself personally, and a large overgeneralization of the positions of many advocates of science and scientists. While there is certainly a debate and concern about the use of nuclear, that broad notion of denial is very incorrect.
Today is the 81st anniversary of the Great Tri State Tornado.. Deadliest tornado ever in the U.S...Link

Quoting 150. civEngineer:



Funny how the guardians of undenied science are often the first to deny the science and proven record of hydroelectric and nuclear power as the cleanest and safest form of energy, both of which coincidentally don't require fiscal suicide or authoritarian control.


authoritarian control.

Who exactly moved all those Chinese peasants to build the Three Gorges Dam ?

nuclear power as the cleanest and safest form of energy,

See the 3 melted reactors in Japan

Quoting 151. Naga5000:



I don't think that was meant to be directed at me. That is a big assumption about myself personally, and a large overgeneralization of the positions of many advocates of science and scientists. While there is certainly a debate and concern about the use of nuclear, that broad notion of denial is very incorrect.

Not specific to anyone but an observation of the general theme of point to the problem and ignoring or even disparaging the most practical solutions. In the interest of spurning debate, I'd love to get your take on both of those forms of energy though.
155. MahFL
Lake Shasta, CA continues to fill :

86% of Total Capacity
110% of Historical Avg. For This Date
Quoting 140. NativeSun:

Why is everyone on the climate change bandwagon using such a very, very short time scale to cry the sky is falling. These cycles have happened in the past with higher CO2 levels, so why will it not happen again, it's just this time the humans are present to record it, and not tree rings or ice cores. Also we have not been using satellites to record the temps for the last 165 yrs. These warming and cooling cycles the Earth has experienced in the past are caused by other factors, then just CO2. Man has contributed to increasing the CO2 levels in the atmosphere , but how much of the temp changes are caused solely by man made CO2? If you want to tax someone, tax the people and companies that are pouring all their pollutants into our waters and air, at least that is something we can control, and would also greatly benefit the environment, thus helping everyone out, except the polluters.

One hallmark of good science is that it is quite conservative, in the sense that hypotheses are based on solid observation and the validity of these hypotheses is determined by subsequent observation. Solid data about the temperature of the Earth's surface is available only from the latter part of the 19th century forward. Prior to this, direct measurement of temperature was either non-existant or, at best, regional. Proxy data, whether from tree rings or ice cores or estimates of surface temperatures derived from satellite measurements, is clearly less reliable than direct measurement. Therefore, theories based on proxy data must be viewed with a degree of suspicion.
Measurements made before 1900 showed that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was increasing. In the 1950s, regular measurements of atmospheric CO2 began on Mauna Loa, and we all know the record of these measurements. By the 1980s, atmospheric scientists began saying that because of the way CO2 interacts with solar radiation, the increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere would result in increasing temperatures at the Earth's surface.
Since then, direct measurements of temperatures at the Earth's surface have shown an increase in these temperatures.
So, we are confronted with a theory, based on atmospheric physics, that is supported by 30 years of observation. The conservative bias of science requires that this theory be accepted.
It is inescapable that the conclusions of this theory, with respect to the future of the human race, are grim. It is inescapable that our present economic, social, and political systems are totally incapable of dealing effectively with the challenges of AGW. To argue that if AGW were true, then our societies would have to be radically restructured, therefore AGW is false, is not helpful.
157. OKsky
Quoting 129. Sandy82579:

NOAA also says - "The “pause” in global warming observed since 2000 followed a period of rapid acceleration in the late 20th century. Starting in the mid-1970s, global temperatures rose 0.5 °C over a period of 25 years. Since the turn of the century, however, the change in Earth’s global mean surface temperature has been close to zero. Yet despite the halt in acceleration, each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850."

It's here:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/ why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-r ising-past-decade

So once again, short term weather variations do not make a case for global warming.


How many times do you have to make this point each year? Would you say making this "point" over and over again has been a trend you have observed?

Quoting 154. civEngineer:


Not specific to anyone but an observation of the general theme of point to the problem and ignoring or even disparaging the most practical solutions. In the interest of spurning debate, I'd love to get your take on both of those forms of energy though.

The most practical solutions seem to be wind and photovoltaics. Hydro is excellent, but not available everywhere. Nuclear causes lots of problems in the real world. Just my informed opinion. :-p

Foggy here this morning, just starting to clear now....   this image will change
160. MahFL
Who is collating the hurricane forecast numbers ?
Quoting 158. ChiThom:


The most practical solutions seem to be wind and photovoltaics. Hydro is excellent, but not available everywhere. Nuclear causes lots of problems in the real world. Just my informed opinion. :-p

Can you give a informed support for the "causes lots of problems in the real world" statement?
Upon us all, a lil rain must fall, jus a lil rain..

Quoting 154. civEngineer:


Not specific to anyone but an observation of the general theme of point to the problem and ignoring or even disparaging the most practical solutions. In the interest of spurning debate, I'd love to get your take on both of those forms of energy though.


I'm kind of on-board with this comment, I love to see discussion about solutions. I get excited when I run across an article about people attempting to find a way to "use" this extra carbon (responsibly). It's here, we need to find ways to use it without doing further damage to our environment. I get nervous when I hear about throwing money at the problem, like the US saying that they will contribute millions/billions of dollars. If we are going to spend that type of money then I would like to see what that money will be used for. Love to see the business plan including ROI. We constantly throw money at issues and not getting much of a return. War on drugs? Common core? No child left behind? I'm all for spending money, but we need to spend it conscientiously.
Quoting 129. Sandy82579:

NOAA also says - "The %u201Cpause%u201D in global warming observed since 2000 followed a period of rapid acceleration in the late 20th century. Starting in the mid-1970s, global temperatures rose 0.5 C over a period of 25 years. Since the turn of the century, however, the change in Earth%u2019s global mean surface temperature has been close to zero. Yet despite the halt in acceleration, each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth%u2019s surface than any preceding decade since 1850."

It's here:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/ why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-r ising-past-decade

So once again, short term weather variations do not make a case for global warming.


Surface temperature is a poor metric of measuring global warming in it's entirety considering most of the warming goes into the oceans which showed no pause over that same time period, and continued an unabated increase, don't you think? A temporary pause in the increase of surface warming over such a short time period is indicative of very little. Since 1997, global temps have been rising at the rate of:


GISS 1.55C/Cen
HADCRUT 4 1.07C/Cen
NOAA 1.36C/Cen

That's no pause, that's no hiatus, that was called too short of a time period to get a discernible trend. That's called impatience and bad statistics. We don't need short term weather to make the case for global warming, we have empirical evidence and measurements that confirm the effect of CO2 as a greenhouse gas.
Quoting 161. civEngineer:


Can you give a informed support for the "causes lots of problems in the real world" statement?


Fukishima? Chernobyl?
167. JRRP7
Oh!
Quoting 161. civEngineer:


Can you give a informed support for the "causes lots of problems in the real world" statement?

Sorry, civ. I could if I had time. Someone else will chime-in for your edification, I'm quite certain.
Quoting 160. MahFL:

Who is collating the hurricane forecast numbers ?


That would be our very own "Mad Max", and we love him for all his efforts in putting the list together.
He'll be posting his site once he gets ready to do it
Quoting 159. PedleyCA:


Foggy here this morning, just starting to clear now....   this image will change



Pretty cool image showing hundreds of miles of coastal fog, in addition to the fog that formed in the central valley. That's a very large scale setup.
Quoting 150. civEngineer:



Funny how the guardians of undenied science are often the first to deny the science and proven record of hydroelectric and nuclear power as the cleanest and safest form of energy, both of which coincidentally don't require fiscal suicide or authoritarian control.

Really. Corporations/corporate states will kill for hydro and have done so. Missed this one, I guess, as just one of the latest examples: Fellow Honduran activist Nelson García murdered days after Berta Cáceres
Quoting 154. civEngineer:


Not specific to anyone but an observation of the general theme of point to the problem and ignoring or even disparaging the most practical solutions. In the interest of spurning debate, I'd love to get your take on both of those forms of energy though.


I think both hydroelectric and nuclear are valid options to speed up the transition to renewables as soon as possible. They both come with their own concerns and issues. Spent fuel disposal being a major for nuclear as well as the current issues like FPL's nuclear plant canal leaking into Biscaine Bay, the environmental concerns of uranium mining, nuclear proliferation, nuclear terrorism, etc. These make nuclear a questionable long term solution. The main concern of man made CO2 is of course greatly lessened, but there is still major concerns for localized environmental impacts which bring their own set of challenges. Hydroelectric alos hast a host of environmental concerns at the local level, including wildlife threats and land use changes.
Quoting 166. justmehouston:



Fukishima? Chernobyl?

You forgot Three Mile Island. Fukishima is an example of poor fail safes; Three Mile Island and Chernobyl are examples from the pioneering age of nuclear power and poor design. In the 60 odd years of nuclear power the three are the biggest events. Of which I will add only Chernobyl has resulted in anyone dying (so far). Other than these three, the world including the US has been successfully and safely using nuclear power. Take a look at France's pollution output where they use nuclear to produce 80% of their power, and tell me why we shouldn't emulate that.

No fog in Central Valley ..... this image will change .... know any decent image hosting sites to use?
Lamap Malekula (Vanuatu): max. 37.2C, 10 February = New National Record High for Vanuatu
Aneityum (Vanuatu): max 34.8C, 9 February

www.facebook.com/geoclimat.org/
Quoting 173. civEngineer:


You forgot Three Mile Island. Fukishima is an example of poor fail safes; Three Mile Island and Chernobyl are examples from the pioneering age of nuclear power and poor design. In the 60 odd years of nuclear power the three are the biggest events. Of which I will add only Chernobyl has resulted in anyone dying (so far). Other than these three, the world including the US has been successfully and safely using nuclear power. Take a look at France's pollution output where they use nuclear to produce 80% of their power, and tell me why we shouldn't emulate that.


I grew up around David Besse and was always wary of it. There have been cancer clusters and there has also been an uptick in MS. Have you seen pictures of the freakish fruit and vegetables in the Fukishima plant area?
Nuclear power shouldnt be just placed everywhere - same reason my company has our data center in Arizona, to offset chances of weather related events.

And I do agree, we should research what France does and see if similar measures can be taken here
Quoting 177. justmehouston:



I grew up around David Besse and was always wary of it. There have been cancer clusters and there has also been an uptick in MS. Have you seen pictures of the freakish fruit and vegetables in the Fukishima plant area?
Nuclear power shouldnt be just placed everywhere - same reason my company has our data center in Arizona, to offset chances of weather related events.

And I do agree, we should research what France does and see if similar measures can be taken here


yeah do a little more research on those pictures, they seem to be a hoax
Quoting 173. civEngineer:


You forgot Three Mile Island. Fukishima is an example of poor fail safes; Three Mile Island and Chernobyl are examples from the pioneering age of nuclear power and poor design. In the 60 odd years of nuclear power the three are the biggest events. Of which I will add only Chernobyl has resulted in anyone dying (so far). Other than these three, the world including the US has been successfully and safely using nuclear power. Take a look at France's pollution output where they use nuclear to produce 80% of their power, and tell me why we shouldn't emulate that.
Good morning Civ..Fusion reactors are likely going to be more of a reality sooner than some people realize...Nuclear plants that exist now could be made much safer than the designs of the past, but fusion should be here before they start building multi billion dollar conventional nuclear power plants...jmo
Quoting 167. JRRP7:

Oh!



Nah
LDEO is high
Quoting 174. PedleyCA:


No fog in Central Valley ..... this image will change .... know any decent image hosting sites to use?



free image hosting
Quoting 174. PedleyCA:


No fog in Central Valley ..... this image will change .... know any decent image hosting sites to use?



I remember in Corpus Chrisit on hot early Spring days (90 degrees outside and sunny) we'd head out to the beach (usually around this time of the year). But when we got out to the beach it would be about 70 degrees with thick fog.
It happened a lot when it would be about 90 degrees outside (just inland) while the Gulf of Mexico was still chilly (around 65 degrees or so).
Quoting 179. hydrus:

Good morning Civ..Fusion reactors are likely going to be more of a reality sooner than some people realize...Nuclear plants that exist now could be made much safer than the designs of the past, but fusion should be here before they start building multi billion dollar conventional nuclear power plants...jmo

If cold fusion can be perfected that would be the ultimate solution, best of all worlds!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I still like the trifecta of natural gas-solar-hydro...at least up here in Canada. Natural gas is cheap and abundant, the plants can be constructed relatively quickly, and you can fire up the gas turbines when the sun is down. Plenty of undeveloped hydro potential in BC, Manitoba and Quebec...but the environmental concerns grow larger as you increase nameplate capacity of these hydro plants. Also there are friction-loss issues with transporting power from remote hydro sites to population centers...even with HVDC technology. Also worth mentioning...the same subsurface technology applied to natural gas extraction can apply to geothermal development as well. A quadrifecta?
Quoting 161. civEngineer:


Can you give a informed support for the "causes lots of problems in the real world" statement?


Three Mile Island, Fukushima and Chernobyl are all nuclear power plants that have caused real world problems.
Indian Point outside of NYC continues to leak radioactive matter

On the otherhand, nuclear waste from plants that are operating properly continues to be a major and expensive problem.

Quoting 173. civEngineer:


You forgot Three Mile Island. Fukishima is an example of poor fail safes; Three Mile Island and Chernobyl are examples from the pioneering age of nuclear power and poor design. In the 60 odd years of nuclear power the three are the biggest events. Of which I will add only Chernobyl has resulted in anyone dying (so far). Other than these three, the world including the US has been successfully and safely using nuclear power. Take a look at France's pollution output where they use nuclear to produce 80% of their power, and tell me why we shouldn't emulate that.
The pink gorilla in the room with nuclear power in the USA is the age of all of the reactors.  Most are, to my knowledge, operating beyond their designed life span.  The price tag to decommission the old reactors is enough to make heads spin.  Add in the long term storage of spent fuel and you can forget building new reactors(each 1B plus plus).  It's cost prohibitive, plus there are huge environmental impacts - even without a spill or disaster like Fukushima.  Fusion reactors are not the answer either.  I think this road is a dead end.  The dirty reactors (cheaper GE design - plutonium fuel) will burn for 20K years.  Japan(and the world for that matter) is lucky the reactors have bored their way into the earth.  If that burns on the surface (spent rods), we are all in trouble as we do not have the technology to put the plutonium fire out or contain it.  In my opinion, the risks outweigh everything in every category.  I think we have been damned lucky so far here, and so has France.  Disclaimer:  I'm not a nuclear scientist, but I did stay at a holiday in express once or twice.....
Just had some pea sized hail here in NW CT.  Holding steady in the low 40's.  Forecast now shows only 1-3 inches of snow....models have shifted again I guess.
Apparently energy has to be expensive and polluting, both as much as possible.
I've seen a lot of these debates - where protagonists of nuclear chime in.
The strangest thing, that - in those debates it suddenly seems that wind and solar don't exist at all anymore.