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No Wilma tonight

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:49 AM GMT on October 17, 2005

Tropical Depression 24 remains unimpressive tonight; satellite imagery continues to slow a large and poorly organized system that is not yet a tropical storm. The wind shear above the storm is still very low--less than five knots--but the upper-level anticyclone that was on top has become less well defined, and dry air continues to intrude into the northwest side of the storm. The last hurricane hunter mission left the storm at 4:30 pm EDT today, so the exact strength of the storm is not known at this point. There is not another mission scheduled until 2 pm EDT Monday. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Tuesday afternoon.

The forecast guidance still predicts that this will be Tropical Storm Wilma on Monday, and Hurricane Wilma by Wednesday. This storm reminds me of Rita, which spent about three days trying to organize in the Bahamas before finally solidifying its inner core and rapidly intensifying. This storm may behave similarly, and intensificatiion into a major hurricane by late in the week is a possibility that several of the computer models are calling for.


Figure 1. Historical tracks of tropical depressions that have formed in the western Caribbean in October.

Steering currents are expected to remain weak the next three days, and some erratic motion is possible. However, a mostly west or west-northwest should result in a landfall on the Yucatan or Belize late in the week. A weak trough that was expected to deflect the storm to the north before this happened is now forecast to be too weak to significantly affect it. However, second a low pressure system currrently bringing rain to southern California is expected to move east this week and push a trough far enough south to pull the storm to the north and into the Gulf of Mexico late in the week. An eventual landfall on the west coast of Florida 7 - 8 days from now is expected. This is a typical track for October systems forming in the western Caribbean, as we can see from the historical track map shown in Figure 1. It still looks unlikely that this storm will get "stuck" in the Caribbean and drift southwest towards Honduras like Category 5 Hurricane Mitch did in October 1998. It also appears unlikely that Gulf Coast residents of Louisiana and Texas will receive a direct hit from this storm, although it is difficult to accurately forecast what might happen beyond five days when we are so poor at just three day forecasts.

Elsewhere in the tropics, nothing else is happening. I'll be back with a update in the morning about 9:30 am EDT.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Well well well

BB73
first to post!
damn.... trouper beat me to it..
Anyone think a gulf coast landfall is possible with Wilma?
North gulf coast.
Hiya from The Bahamas :)
It appears that all the models have shifted more towards the Yucatan as a landfall. Any opinions on how that scenario would affect a later move into the Panhandle or FL area, if such a thing happens ?
any 1 here? IM in florida panhandle wilma expected to come this far north or west??
Its going to be hard to make predictions at the moment. This thing is still 9 or 10 days out from a U.S. landfall and the computer models have been changing many times a day. Probably just a gut feeling from the old timers or the meteorology guerus at this time.
It will be interesting to see if the center consolidates under the current burst of very deep convection ssw of the initial position: Link
For anyone that might not be familiar with the storm floater, check the box that says "Trop Fcst Pts" for an overlay of the last forecast track and initial position (at this point from the 8pm advisory).
What is your take on Wilma supbtropic? Based upon what you saw earlier today and now?
Where are you hank?
I'm not an expert at reading the map you posted and I'm sure its not hard, but does it look like it has intensified? Or are those just thunderstorms around it?
trouper, for the first time it looks to me like some serious convection might finally be developing. If it holds together that is. I think if the center relocates under it, it will start to take off soon. As for track, I'd hate to even guess at this point. I originally thought something like Irene, but now I don't feel too confident.
hey sub,

do you think that it is reorganize to the south of the points from the floater???
Trouper- yes those are just thunderstorms (ie convection) but according to the supposed movement and position, they would not be over the "center". If that's the case, then it would just be a blowup of thunderstorms and not necessarily a sign that it is intensifying. On the other hand, it could happen that the center could redevelope underneath them and if that happens, the system will indeed intensify.
Taco, I kinda hope not :-). If it does, things could start to happen faster than expected.
Although considering the slow movement and how far down there it is, I guess it's not a big deal if it does. I guess I would just rather be tracking a tropical storm for the next few days than a hurricane (or major hurricane).
Of course a replay of this is what we all fear here in the Tampa Bay area. We're only 84 years overdue. The 18z GFS implies such a possibility.
Well that blob of convection seems to be still growing, so it might spread over where the center is.... Would that be just as "beneficial" to the storm as the center reforming under the convection?
yes I agree it will be faster than what they thought and it would be bad for anyone in the GOM...
Looks like TD24/Wilma is biding her time out there - she knows that she wants to follow in the shoes of Katrina and Rita, but can't right now...maybe we'll get lucky and TD24 will dissipate unnamed? Otherwise, look out!
Can't blame you there Steve. That is a scary track and 84 years is a hella long time.
Seems to be similar track to Ivan from last year, except it looks like it will take a little more time getting organized and may be 30-40 miles farther west. It is too early to tell, however get ready Tallahassee to MS/LA border. This thing should explode to cat 4 intensity of 140-145 mph when it gets in the southern gulf(based on amount of heat energy in southern gulf and low shear that should exist). Would be hard for it to maintain strength and should be cat 2 max at landfall on the gulf coast.
Well the good news is, this one is a slow mover for now and a long way out. Whoever (or is it Whomever - sheera, some help please!) ends up dealing with it should have plenty of time to be prepared. I remember with Irene we had about a day and a half (if that) by the time they realized it was definitely coming through S FL.
I figured you were a metallica fan wannabe. Get with it girl!
I'm sticking to my projection on the storm heading north (although I have slowed it down); the real rapid intensification will be dizzying but remains more than 36 hours away.

Current - 17.6/79.7 - 1001mb - 35mph
6 hrs - 17.7/79.8 - 999mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 17.9/79.8 - 998mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 18.1/79.7 - 995mb - 60mph
36 hrs - 18.4/79.6 - 986mb - 75mph
48 hrs - 18.9/79.5 - 968mb - 100mph
60 hrs - 19.7/79.4 - 945mb - 125mph Near Cayman Brace
72 hrs - 20.9/79.2 - 932mb - 145mph Approaching Cuba
77 hrs - 21.5/79.1 - 930mb - 145mph Landfall
96 hrs - 23.2/78.6 - 966mb - 100mph Over Water
120 hrs - 25.4/78.3 - 947mb - 120mph
And I'm not expecting that we'll be bailed out in the TB area like we were last year with Charley. Charley crossed western Cuba first and was supposed to hit us from a very oblique angle, almost from due south. Therefore, it didn't take much (frictional effects, a ridiculously strong August trof that was even more powerful than forecast, having chewed up Bonnie) to turn it in further to our south. This time around, the storm would be accelerating on a true NE track from a much further W position.

It's still far out, and a lot can happen, but climatologically a storm heading west of north in the Gulf come late October is a true rarity, so the FL West Coast is the likely landfall point.
Steve, From the computer models & other blogs that I have seen it looks like the West coast of FL is going to get hit with Wilma. I am hoping this is further south than Cedar Key, like the Tampa area. Make sure to pick up a couple of those $5 umbrellas from Walmart.
I may be coming to stay with you, or at least one of your local hotels. Thankfully the Gators are off this weekend, so there should be room at the inns. I am seriously considering making some reservations in the next day or two. Next weekend would really stink for me and my family - my brother is closing on the sale of his house Friday, and my newborn's christening is Sunday. I guess there will be no shortage of water to baptize him in.
Dear Wilma,

I want a divorce.

Yours,
Fred
Newborn? Congratulations steve!
Of course, for those in Florida, you're all hoping that my prediction holds true (although those in the Bahamas, eastern Cuba and ultimately the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are not the same way...)
Thanks, subtropic. He's actually 3 months old now, but it took until this coming weekend to find a date that worked for the church and for various out-of-town relatives. Oh, the irony.
Well, IF it comes there, it will make a great story to tell the little one when he gets older. By then it will probably seem funny?
For anyone who has not yet seen the 11pm NHC discussion on td24: Link
HEY ALL I SEE WE MAY HAVE A CAT 4 HURRICANE AND I NO IT IS NOT GOING TO MAKE LANDFALL WHERE THE K STORM DID COULD IT? AND COULD IT BE A CAT 5 TOO 3 CAT 5 IN A ROW THAT COOL WELL NOT MAKEING LAND FALL I HOP NO ONE KILL ME FOR SAYING THATS COOL
Steve~ congrates! & if your gonna raise him in fl it's probibly gonna seem more like a way of life.

Wow for the 1st time today td24 looks like she's about to put it together & blow up.

I'm purusing the models ~ anyone wanna come along?
I haven't pursued models in years. Sounds like fun. ;-)
Convection sure is firing ss per IR and WV. Models all over the place. This piece of the NHC 11 pm discussion gave me a start:

"THE LATEST GFDL FORECASTS MORE
STRENGTHENING... AND MORE RAPIDLY... THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FEW
RUNS... WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 115 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS."

While this is one of many models, which have got intensities and paths all over the place, seems to me that notification of potentially affected popultaions should maybe be started sooner rather than later
There is high pressure over the Gulf states. Why wouldn't this steer Wilma to the west and block her from coming north? If the models are even close to being right and they seem to be clustered now on the Yucatan, what would make Wilma do a 180 degree turn towards the northeast (Gulf) with the high above her? Seems like it would take a strong pull from a cold front to turn it around. That's assuming that it does head west into the Yucatan.
The canadian~Link ~deturmaned to nail a bahamian?

k might have been funnier if i knew what i'd call myself if i lived in the bahamas
What do you think she will do to the weather in Roatan and Utila Islands off the coast of Honduras this coming week? Worried about a boy diving there. Too early to tell. Maybe just lots of rain? Yes? Should I tell him to come home?
You've got to admire the cmc. It sticks to it's guns to the bitter end! And I think you got that term correct skyepony.
Well, as a sailboat owner who keeps her boat on tampa bay and my mom is by herself, and 87, up in crystal river..I hope the darn thing goes well south of us.. I am not to thrilled with the thought of losing my home. aka my sailboat orions daughter.

this is one hurricane season i will heartley glad to see past.
Dawg~ warm water, high sst make big storms that control to an extent the weather around them, they want to go north (it's the way the earth works) but are still subject to getting caught in fronts & they love it cause it helps them get north faster.
Dawgfan: being that future-Wilma is stuck between two high pressure systems, the projected weakness in the high over the Gulf states (caused by the passing trough) would be the thing steering it northward.
CalGal ditch the boy, find a man
the ukmet Link Doesn't sound as pretty as a canadian model & in this instance really isn't for fl. notice the last few frames (don't forget to scroll right & click forward). Does have it in carribian for like 4 days. other than a slight shift since last night bought same, save little more intence.
the nogaps Link is stickin to it's guns as well, right to yukatan, just a little stronger than it forcasted earlier
hey wannabe want to go to the chat room
the gfs Link the intensity ~ suggests if ya live in yukutan ~run~
I'm not all that impressed with Accuweather's predictions for hurricane tracks, but they do have a graphic that shows that if the high pressure remains strong over the Gulf states then Wilma (when named) will head west towards Mexico. If there is a weakness in the high, then Wilma would head north and then northeast perhaps towards the west coast of Florida. The models now indicate that Wilma will head into the Yucatan and my question is if Wilma does move that far west, is it likely that she could turn around and head back towards the east or northeast?
finally the gfdl Link ~shows a low pressure at 1 point to be 932 with outragous winds. similiar track to gfs, ukmet
yes plenty have hit yukatan & at least threatend or hit us & or cuba. Most likely she'll meander in caribian for days, no real steering current, blocked top & bottom, til things change. Could go due west to mexico but not real likely this time of year, those cold fronts are diggin deeper with each passing. gettin my first taste of the cool air now.
Cool air? What's cool air? I seem to remember something, but ...
well I am out of here for tonight and will be back tomorrow I do understand that we should have ST Wilma and it should be heading towards the yukatan... after that all bets are off on where she goes... :-) Everybody have a great night and will see ya tomorrow...
img src=>"www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif"<
nite taco!
61. iyou
Can anyone help out CalGal at 3:44 a.m., if she didn't get scared off by the response at 3:52 a.m.?
hey i you hows it going
boldman: what did I need to do to post the south florida water management district plots? Do I need the http in there as well. If you look at my post above, I tried to do it but it is missing something!
cirro that dont work must be copy writed
iyou that was the best advice anyone could give her.
i tried and im really good but i think its copy writed so cant do it
I believe this will be our coolest night this Fall. It's 62 degrees tonight in Valdosta, Georgia, so we might see the 50's in the morning. The hot tub felt good tonight!
how did you do that
hey wannabe want to go to the chat room
3:52, 3:56 and 4:00AM all show it's headed straight for him. Gulp. Wish he would check his flipping e mail. Two weeks in the caribbean diving with his buddies, while his girl sits at home awake till all hours chewing her fingernails. I was worried what would happen after too many hurricanes at the bar!!! Now this!!
bold I cant get it to work
leftyy cant resist lol
img src="www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif">
Boldman, you need the < before img src and the http:
img src="
i had the < thing not the http:
Nah . boldman is doing it right, I checked the code. Sorry boldman, no dice on this one.
no will i did not have the http: thing
well g noght all noght wannabe had a great time tonight
nite bold
img src=
Seems like the models are still calling for a sharp turn to the NE, even after a Yucatan landfall, as the system tries to make its way toward the weakness in the ridge created by a passing trough (thanks to lefty for the explanation).

I'm sticking to the idea that the further NW this travels, the further up the west coast of Florida this system will likely hit. It seems that there is usually high pressure over the western Gulf states around this time of year.
boldman, you did have the http... b/c I cut and pasted your exact code to post the image that I did. Plus I am looking at the source right now.

Strange that it's not working for you.
really will

i changed my mind im going to be on longer
Well guys, tomorrow afternoon we will witness significant weather history as we match the busiest hurricane season on record.

What an ideal season during which to learn more about hurricanes. We've had storms all all types!
This will be my last post here as too many people don't know how to accept responsibilty for their immaturity... sadly, the majority of the bloggers respect this persons advice which is based on formal forecasting experience which in itself certainly doesnt guarantee a sucessful forecast. However, its irresponsible at best to be misinforming others about the basics of tropical meteorolgy such as what I am listing below... Hope you all have a great night and it was nice meeting alot of you.

Posted By: hurricanechaser at 1:55 AM GMT on October 17, 2005.
I didn't drop in to be disaggreable honestly..but Lefty you made the following comment which isn't correct meteorologically speaking when you said, "everyone thinks she will be picked up by the trough and turned NE which is ludicrious..lol".. The simple fact is the trough will weaken the ridge allowing her to curve in a gradual northward direction in time from the NW Carribean which you correctly stated. However, in most cases, these storms usually being the key word get turned NNE and NE once in the GULF with the strong troughs influence not just simply the erosion of the ridging of a weakening high which is the given result. This could pick her up at the end of the forecast period once in the central or eastern gulf. In other words, no one I know is saying or should suggest that a trough by itself will directly pick it up out of the deep carribean. However, it has been the case with the majority of systems that moved near the Fl. straits or west coast of fl. this time of year which were actually picked up and kicked out by the southwesterlies ahead of the approaching troughs to the NE not simply because a ridge weakened. Once again, this is the obvious result with a strong trough digging southwards into the gulf . This is especially true this late in the season when there is usually far more amplitude involved.. Therefore, it basically comes down to the strength of the trough late in the forecast period as to whether it will be picked up and kicked NE once in gulf or not be as strong and allow it to make a landfall as far west as the Fl./Al. border with a much more gradual curve from NNW to N to NNE and eventually NE well inland under such a possible scenario. To clarify, the reason we see storms moving NNE and NE at a fairly rapid rate of speed as they traverse SW florida for example, is the direct result of the trough and its prevailing southwesterlies in the upper levels of the atmosphere. It is these Southwesterlies that present it with that definate steering current in contrast to a much reduced motion as the result of simple ridge erosion by the effects of a much weaker trough with far less amplitude. In reality, its ludicruis to use your terminolgy, to think that a storm not being picked up by a trough and moving it NE at such a rapid rate of speed does that simply as a result of the basic erosion of a ridge. I hope most people understand that such erosion is a given that results from the troughs influence in the first place. Feel free to disagree, but its a basic forecasting fact and it would be irresponsible on my part not to correct a possible misunderstanding in general meteorological terms. Now, whether it happens in this case is yet to be seen, I am just using it as an example. In short, I hope you all take care....this will be last post here..just stopped in to see who my real friends may or may not be..it helped..thanks all. You are gifted lefty in analyzing the various data avaiable and paying close attention to the global models. On the other hand, please be careful not to confuse those without formal meteorological training when making the statement I referenced above which could be misunderstood by others. Honestly, thats I interpreted what you said and apologize if I misunderstood it myself. Regardless, my description is based on years of formal training and I'm very careful what I say. This is so important to me because many people have looked to me in the past and actually made decisions concerning the lives of themselves as well as their loved ones in the predictions I have made. Thats why I've mentioned the imprecision of meteorological forecasts so far out in time much less 6 hours into a landfall. As we all know so well, it only takes a small wobble (i.e, Charley)to dramatically alter the ultimate landfall location and its effects upon those in its path. Thats yet another reason I find it so disappointing that we can't all utilize our various abilties and experience as a team instead of an environment of intense competition and tension. Thats not the science of forecasting with peoples lives on the line. Once you become an official meteorologist with that huge responsibilty, you will better understand the importantance of humility and place the well being of others ahead of your simple pride. We can't be a good forecaster making life annd death decisions for others and not constantly second guess ourselves in the process. Moreover, its also important to be willing to reanalyze your forecasts and look for any errors in hopes of furture sucess as a result. I am sure this post may not be appreciated by those in here who place such confidence in your abilities. I have heard so many people say you are disliked because many are simply jealous of how knowledgable you are. I think its a given that isn't the case here for the obvious reasons. I have lost respect for you as a result of your inabilty to accept responsibity for your immature actions as I have. Not to mention you typically come across to others as so many have written to me as arrogant which I know is actually derived from your insecurities (which we all have). Yet, that is a poor excuse for being so defensive and becoming so hostile if someone else disagrees with you on a matter. Its a shame that your actions last night are being accepted and even encouraged by those who don't take a stand for what is right even if its not popular. I hope you will be able to realize it never benefits any of us to call other people names, curse at them, or refuse to accept a sincere apology when its offered. It is simply amazing to me that you can reconsider your actions and feel justified in not apologizing for them but then again that takes humility. Oh well, I appreciated your brief friendship while it lasted and I wish you the best nonetheless.

Oh yeah..here the specific comment I'm referencing in the aforementioned paragraph...

Posted By: leftyy420 at 11:29 PM GMT on October 16, 2005.

miami, the problem is every one thinks she will be picked up by a trof. thats not what is going to happen. the trof is gong to errode the ridge sterring her wnw or nw and let her turn n and ne into the weakness. at the same time the ridge will slide se. thats what the models are showing. now how far west she goes or north she goes will be determined by the strength of the trof and the amount the ridge is erroded. to think a trof will grab a system in the carribean is just ludicrous lol

To clarify any misunderstanding after I leave.. you don't say at any point that the trough could pick it up at any point and make it appear its impossible even in the gulf. you focus on the ridges erosion and the troughs natural effect on it. Its a mistake to place to much confidence on the models when they will switch back and forth. Its a tool to use in forecasting not the forecaster itself. Please forgive typos or improper grammar, too tired to proofread tonight. Thanks all.

I have a revised expectation on landfall that suggests anyone living anywhere from the ms./al. border to west central Fl. has too be watching it closely. My best estimate and thats all any of ours are at this point is a landfall between Pensacola Fl. and Tampa, Fl. I'm sure we will all have a more defined forecast when it gets better organized in time.
lol ok chaser bye. also thats the reason i went to my own blog. so i could speak freely with out having to make a prediction or forcast. but thanks for continuing to blow things up. have a good night lol
also chaser, i don;t see how me posting in my won blog keeps u from
1. psting here
2. posting rebutals in my blog to anything i say there


you come here to make a statement about something i posted in my blog wow lol. u need to relax and just enjoy dr.masters blog as i no longer post my info or predictions here and if u have a problem with what i say in my blog you have alright to state ur opinion in my blog. but thanks anyway
Ok Lefty,
what kind of man can't take responsibility for his actions.. Do you think it was appropriate to call people names, curse at them, refuse to accept numerous sincere apologies and not once apologize yourself for all the aforementioned. That takes being a real man and I'm disappointed you have yet not reached that level of maturity... come to think of it, I'm not quite certain of your age so it may simply be a matter of time as I was just as stubborn when I was younger yet far more sensitive to others feelings.. Hand in there, theres still time for you to grow up and be a real man...dont worry about responding bk if youre still here.. I'm off to bed now. Its a shame all this has happened and you said I keep this going..no i'm sorry, its your inabilty to apologize for the immaturity you displayed yesterday.. I took responsibilty for my immaturity then and do so now... This may seem hard for you to understand becuse its about being unselfish but I am thankful you have so many they truly respect you and I still wish you the best nonetheless. Take care.
Um....who started the catfight?

JV
101. iyou
Clear, beautiful and serene in Kure Beach, N.C. Nightfishing in progress from the pier and the lens is spotless tonight! www.surfchex.com
hey all...Im heading to bed..I live in Wilmington Nc..I agree its a beautiful night.. and Vance..the whole long story is on my blog...take care guys... have a good night.
sorry Valance..typos..goodnight everyone.
104. iyou
Well hurricanechaser I wish you'd reconsider - your input is appreciated ;-)
oh hurricane chaser dont leave come to alecs blog
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
403 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALLOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
EXPECTED...SO THE MOST NOTABLE ITEM WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT.

THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY KICKS OUT AND IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FIRST AND
WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS LATE. WITH COLD
AIR STILL CONTAINED UP NORTH...DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE CHANGE.

PERSISTENT ZONAL FLOW SHOULD INVITE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...SEE NO REASON TO ADD POPS
PAST FRIDAY.
hey itou you still here
hey patrick
hey iyou
hows it going
It looks like Wilma is consolidating some gains made through the night!
Watch out!!! Wilma is getting organized!!!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

...TROPICAL STORM WILMA BECOMES THE 21ST NAMED STORM OF THE 2005
ATLANTIC SEASON OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TIES THE RECORD FOR NAMED STORMS SET BACK IN 1933...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES
... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES
WILMA THE 21ST NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON... WHICH TIES THE RECORD OF 21 NAMED STORMS SET BACK IN
1933. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART
No "Z" named storms? Not entirely true. If five more form we would have Storm Zeta.... Correct?

Joe
TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

A TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS AS COLD AS -87C TO
-89C... HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE ALLEGED CENTER OF NOW TROPICAL STORM WILMA.
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA ALONG WITH WIND DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42057
INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER... THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... RATHER IT IS
LIKELY LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE -50C CLOUD TOPS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5 FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND AFWA... AND A UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ODT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE AT 17/0545Z WAS T2.8/41 KT. IN ADDITION... GRADIENT WIND
CALCULATIONS USING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND NEARBY PRESSURE VALUES
FROM THE NOAA BUOY AND JAMAICA SUPPORT 35-KT WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN
60 NMI OF THE CENTER. IF ANY 35-KT WINDS EXISTS... THEN THEY ARE
LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT...
WHICH MAKES WILMA THE 21ST NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE VERY BUSY
2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THIS TIES THE RECORD SET BACK IN
1933.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 235/03. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OVER FLORIDA AND
CUBA APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY STEERING FLOW AVAILABLE. BUT ON A LARGER
SCALE... WILMA REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN TO HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO
THE NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY
WESTWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
TRACK. THE ONLY MODELS NOT CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS OR GUNA MODEL
ARE THE ECMWF... CANADIAN... AND THE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODELS.
THE ECWMF HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS TRACK THE PAST 5
DAYS IN MOVING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IT ALSO WAS
THE ONLY MODEL TO EARLY AND ACCURATELY PREDICT CYCLOGENESIS. THE
ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALSO THE ONLY MODELS THAT DO NOT
LOSE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE.
UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATE A GOOD THERMAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH... WHICH ONLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE PICKED
UP ON. THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN/ERODE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA... CUBA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 48 HOURS. ALSO... THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN ACROSS THE
U.S.... WHICH MEANS THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT... OR WEST... OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL... AND ALSO UNTIL THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BECOMES
MORE CERTAIN BY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE STILL UNDERCUTTING THE
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER... THESE ADVERSE
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BASED ON CONVENTIONAL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 17/0155Z SSMI WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PRECLUDES
FORECASTING WILMA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LESS ROBUST SHIPS
MODEL AND THE VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL... WITH THE LATTER MODEL
MAKING WILMA A 109-KT HURRICANE BY 60 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 17.2N 79.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 17.1N 80.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 17.2N 81.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 17.4N 82.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 17.8N 83.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 85.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 86.5W 90 KT...NEAR NORTHEAST YUCATAN
120HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 87.5W 90 KT...NEAR NORTHEAST YUCATAN

Dr. Masters,
I'm sorry if I offend any one who reads this, but I am really confused about the purpose of your blog.
I came here to learn about the weather, but it seems to me that it's more of a chat blog than a blog to help understand the weather. There seems to be more arguements between members than iformation. Please advise as to the purpose of this blog.
Thank you.
OK PEOPLE MAJOR MODEL SHIFT***** NEW RUN PUTS GFDL 100 MI EAST OF WHERE IT WAS
do u have a link to that model run ftlauderdale so we can see it also
TO BE FAIR TO THE PEOPLE THAT DONT WANT TO GOTO LEFTYS SITE I WILL BE POSTING THE GFS MODEL HERE... LOOKS LIKE SW FL IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY ANY MEANS IF U BELIEVE IN THE GFS MODEL

Link
Its time to due diligence on this storm.
[IMG]http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a153/fsufan524/at200524_model1.gif[/IMG]
FOR NOW I CAN JUST LINK U THERE LOL!!!!Link
ok figured it out...In any case the GFDL has made a major shift to the east...Its interesting to note the NHC forecast was well east of the GFDLs previous runs anyways...Let will have to see all the other models to see if GFDL is "out to lunch"
Okay, I'm really a weather dummy, but why is it the experts are so sure Wilma will make a turn? I live on the TX Gulf coast and the waters are still pretty warm here as are our temps. So what is to keep her from coming this way?
000
WTNT34 KNHC 171147
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

...WILMA MOVING ERRATICALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES
... 335 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH ...8 KM/HR...BUT A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND A CONTINUED ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40 MPH... 65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


cctx the reason has alot to do with climatology...But for this storm the main reason is because hurricanes are steered by upper level wind patterns.. In wilmas case, she is stuck between two high pressure systems for the time being..The high over texas is expected to erode on the eastern part just enough to nudge Wilma to the WNW or NW..In time a trough will dig into the Gulf and the SW winds aloft will force wilma to the NE or Even ENE Depending on the troughs strength...For wilma to hit Texas right now you would need an unbreakable High Pressure system that wouldnt allow any bit of a northward turn... That is rare this time of the season...
Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 162042
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/20:30:20Z
B. 17 deg 42 min N
079 deg 38 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 180 deg 60 nm
F. 254 deg 024 kt
G. 182 deg 051 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 23 C/ 454 m
J. 24 C/ 459 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF309 0224A CYCLONE OB 19
MAX FL WIND 31 KTS SE QUAD 1822Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

cctx, the only dumb question is one not asked. While warm water temps are a mojor factor in the formation and maintaining of a hurricane, many other factors dictate the track. For most of the hurricane season the predominant upper level flow is from the east towards the west which allows the central and western gulf coast to be more at risk. As fall approaches the flow begins to shift more from the west to the east in the central and northern gulf. As cold fronts begin to drop down into the Great Plains their accompanying troughs of low pressure cause a strong flow from southwest to northeast to occur. That will usally direct a tropical system in the northwest Carribean towards Florida. However, this year being the freak that it has been, and the apparent formation of high pressure over the north gulf, these approaching trophs and fronts will not be able to have as much of an affect on Wilma. Right now she is in an area with little to no guidance winds. The further north she moves the more guidance she will have. It's still too early to say how strong and exactly where the high pressure will be and how far south the approaching trophs will be able to dig. This is one that we in LA/TX will have to watch more so than other October storms. That's all I'm saying is watch it. It is not cut and dry by any stretch.

I'm just an amateur with an intense love of the weather like most on this blog. I hope I have shed some light on this.
MORE MAJOR MODEL SHIFT THE GFS AVN HAD NOW SHIFTED WELL TO THE EAST ALSO...SEEMS TO BE A TREND HERE THAT THE NHC WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS IN THE 11AM ADVISORY


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Man, these models are all over the place!
THIS IS THE LATEST GFS RUN 00z JUST CAME OUT
Link
I just hope some dry air finds its way into the circulation and takes some of the starch out of this thing.
WHen will it stop.................?

Cane, cane, go away, come again some other day!
WHAT THE HELL IS THE ACCUWEATHER ONE?????
ON THE REALISTIC SIDE OF BREAKING NEWS THE YET ANOTHER MODEL HAS CHANGED ITs TUNE DRAMATICALLY


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136. OGal
Happy Monday everyone, Chris I don't like that Accu Weather track. Looks like it might be another Charley and hitting Tampa Bay for sure. We got bad winds from Charley here in Winter Springs----lost our roof. (new roof) The thought of HUNKERING DOWN one more time makes me sick!!!!!!
137. TPaul
I case we should say good bye Tampa.
I have a couple questions.

1. How would a Hurricane behave tracking across the everglades (weaken, maintain, strengthen)?

2. What sort of impact would be expected for the east coast?
Howdy...Howdy....Howdy.....those models are crazy.....Im heading to Tampa....Friday....the chase is on.....just kidding for now....
progressive...katrina tracked over the glades and it really did not weaken it at all...the water was very warm there. Now, that was earlier in the season, I am sure that the water has cooled since due to Katrina and other rain since. Not sure of the east coast impact. I am on the east coast of Fl and when Charly came across we were far enough east and south that we did not get it that bad here.
Morning all
good morning palmbeacher
ok guys they are calling for a hit around the Tampa area then that means it will hit around the panhandle possible ala area since we have to factor the margin of error..
Hi all! How is everyone today?
Hello Mandy....doing well, and you?
Good, dude... watching and waiting... watching and waiting. So do we really think Tampa storm? I keep saying it- I'm deathly afraid that the NE Gulf's luck has slap worn out...
mandy, I think that it all depends on just how strong the trof is when it reaches the gulf. Basically right now it is a wait and see game.
Sure would like a crystal ball about now. Does anyone have a "gut" feeling yet, or is it still too early? When will we have a better idea? Thursday or will it be into next weekend before we know?
reckon i better button down and get ready for this one, here we go again!!
Thanks Weatherdude65.
Where are you at cowboy?
ANYONE FROM PENSACOLA EASTWARD NEEDS TO WATCH THIS STORM.....theres an outside chance that wilma could get caught up in Mexico...other than that...florida looks like to have the best chance.......still to early to tell for sure.......
Thanks weatherboyd- guess we're pretty certain that TX and LA are out of the woods?
i'm in the big bend area of fla just north a few miles of where suwannee river goes into gulf
where are you mandy?
Looking at the past history of storms that Dr. Masters has posted in his blog, it appears that a storm making it that far up the coast to the panhandle is highly unlikely. Not unlikely for this year for sure, one to watch.
Tallahassee- originally from Lake City, though.
158. OGal
Gut feeling here!
OGal- what's the feeling?
OGal.... SAY IT!
GFS model run Link This should probably be taken with a grain of salt and the runs yesterday that I saw had it moving over the yucatan penn
Joe B, is calling for a landfall in the panhandle. Not sure I believe that, I'm thinking a little more south. But I am not expert, just a guess. Bastardi
The IR and WV satellite images indicate massive convection occurring. As Wilma is currently headed SOUTH and has yet to "find herself", it doesn't seem to make much sense to prognosticate about possible tracks across Florida 7 or more days from now given all the uncertainties. She may "do a Mitch" and just drift into Central America, or the Yucatan, or whatever. She certainly bears continued watching, but until the models have a better handle on how she'll develop/track any talk of possible tracks across Florida seems a tad premature.
only a few miles from me mandy,
I thought maybe so, cowboy. :-)

New post!
I REALLY hope I don't have to shutter up my house(shutters curtisy?sp of Charley. Two hurricanes in two years is enough. Could someone go into the gulf with a big fan and just get it out of here. Tampa shouldn't worry, theres a magnet in Punta Gorda that attracts them, so it seems.
MY 1ST BROAD PREDICTION

I WOULD SAY ANYWHERE FROM JUST NORTH OF TAMPA TO KEY WEST WILL HAVE A POSSIBILITY FOR THIS STORM
Hmmm, better pen up the Gloucester sword boats. I may be a total hack at this, but it does look like the NOGAPS has Wilma merging with a Northeastern low just off the New England coast. See, Link
Isn't that what happened in the '91 perfect storm?