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NO WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR EASTERN U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:23 PM GMT on December 21, 2014

WEATHERINTEL SERVICES
By Steve Gregory substituting for Jeff Masters
21-DEC-14 (Next Update TUESDAY – DEC 23 on my own Blog)


PATTERN CHANGE TO BRING NORMAL TEMPS XMAS

Above normal Temps continue to persist across much of the nation, but will begin trending back to normal later this week, with below normal Temps likely to develop from west to east after starting next weekend and continuing into the New Year. .

A large scale long wave TROF will be forming over North America as the week progresses, with a strong vorticity Max forcing the development of a large area of locally heavy precip in the southeastern US by late Monday, with a storm system expected to form along the Gulf coast. This storm will move northward into the eastern Great Lakes by XMAS, with a warm flow along the east coast (including New England) and locally heavy rains. While some snow may fall on the back side of the storm across the western Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley – total amounts are not expected to be heavy.

Although a cold flow will become established following this storm, it will take some time for deep arctic air to develop over Canada, so Temps will be close to normal going next weekend, before falling below normal during the week just prior to New Years. The latest global model runs continue to show large run-to-run forecast variations on just how long and how cold it will be during the first 10 days of JAN – as the atmosphere has taken on an El Niño like flow, with some indications that a southern branch of the flow from the Pacific will be undercutting the main TROF over North America during the first half of JAN, limiting the extent, and at times the intensity, of the arctic air surge into the U.S.

Further out, due to the large swings in model projections in the longer ranges, exactly what the pattern will be in JAN is nothing more than a toss-up at this point. That said, with the continuing oscillation of the major teleconnection forecasts (AO, NAO, and PNA) every 2-3 weeks, a small uptick again in Equatorial SST’s in the Niño regions, the continuing positive North Pacific decadal SST pattern, and uncertainty on the strength of the next MJO signal now evolving over the Indian Ocean - a forecast for a ‘highly variable’ (El Niño like) pattern, with large swings in Temp anomalies during JAN seems to be the most likely outcome at this time; along with several more significant rain events in drought stricken California Ca. (More information on the impact of MJO, El Niño and the Pacific decadal oscillation can be found on numerous postings on my own Blog over the past month and the last Winter Outlook posted here and on my Blog.)



CLICK BOTTOM IMAGE to open full size image in new window

Fig 1: The various global model forecasts valid on the evening of DEC 30... There are very large differences in model projections at 10 Days out with equally large variations in the projected Temps – especially during Week 2. The GFS is actually the coldest, while the ‘New’ GFS (which goes online in mid JAN) is the ‘mildest’ of last nights' runs. OTH, the European and Canadian models imply stormier weather during Week 2, with the European model warmer than the GFS but colder than the Canadian. The latest GFS run (not shown) is similar to last nights 00Z run, and has been largely accepted when developing the Temp anomaly forecasts. Nonetheless, the result is a high uncertainty for Temp anomalies during the first week in JAN – though the odds favor solidly below normal Temps across the nation.




Fig 2: The above chart shows High Temps reported yesterday across North America. Note that sub-zero readings are confined to the high arctic in northern Canada and the interior of Alaska (where DEC Temps have averaged 5°-15° above normal so far). Though the upper level flow favors much colder air moving into the US later this week, it will take 4-67 days for deeper, arctic air to develop over Canada first, before plunging into the U.S.




Fig 3: The GFS Ensemble forecasts for the NAO, AO and PNA Teleconnections out thru 14 days. There is an extremely large divergence in the forecasts for the AO and NAO during the last 6 days of the forecast period, with very large implications for Temp anomalies during the first half of JAN. (A Negative AO and NAO imply below normal Temps over the eastern half of the nation – while Positive values imply warmer than normal.)




Fig 4: The SSt anomalies across the Pacific show a continuation of well above normal values from the northern most Pacific/Gulf of Alaska to the eastern Pacific, with a currently weak El Niño event in progress, and a wedge of cold water from off the coast of Japan eastward across much of the North Pacific. The atmosphere has responded to this SST anomaly pattern during the last 3+ weeks with an El Niño like flow (which I expected when developing my Winter Outlook). This type of flow brought the unusually long lasting mild pattern this month along with the heavy rain events to California. This SST anomaly pattern is no doubt contributing to the large divergences in model solutions for periods beyond 7-10 days exhibited by all global models for over a week now.




Fig 5: The SST and Wind anomalies over the Equatorial Pacific continue to show an El Niño event in progress. After Temps fell off a bit around the start of DEC due to the upwelling phase of a passing Kelvin wave – they have begun to warm again as the down-welling phase of a Kelvin wave and weaker than normal Trades have again developed in the EPAC. It appears the Niño 3.4 region will see SST anomalies approach +1.0° by the start of JAN – regardless of how the next MJO cycle evolves. (Whether the SST’s remain above normal in FEB, however, is at least partially related to the next MJO cycle.)




Fig 6: The above Temperature forecasts are based STRICTLY on the GFS MOS model data sets which call for above normal Temps nationwide on average during the week ahead, but anomalies have decreased considerably from the past 2 weeks and will fall to near zero or slightly below normal by next Sunday.




Fig 7: The Week 2 Temperature ANOMALY forecast is based on the 12Z run of the HI-RES operational GFS (90%) integrated with the 00Z EURO model (5%), & 12Z GFS ensemble mean (5%) - using the projected pattern, along with the GFS surface and 850mb Temperature forecasts. Some Temp forecasts are adjusted for known or expected anomalous thermal patterns and/or projected storm systems. Though solidly below normal Temps will dominate much of the nation, there is still significant uncertainty in the daily Temp forecasts after Day 10. This is due to large variations in the models’ upper air projections – and an equally large uncertainty on where and how much additional snow cover there will be by the opening days of JAN. Therefore, Confidence in the general Temp anomaly pattern and its absolute values, is below average, with a rating of ‘2’ on a Scale of ‘1-5’.

✭ The next Weather Update will be issued TUESDAY – DEC 23 on my own Blog

Steve

Winter Weather 2 Week Temperature Forecast

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

0Z Euro has snow for most of Texas in the long range Central & southern maybe an 1" with 5" for the Texas Panhandle and North Texas.
Quoting 500. tampabaymatt:



It's interesting that the GFS is showing that when it has backed off on the rain totals. Tomorrow will be interesting watching the squall line approach. There will be the usual "will it stay strong?" "will it weaken" debate going on here for sure.


Going to be interesting tomorrow as the last 2 days the GFS was trending lighter with the totals now the last 2 runs have trended heavier and is bringing in the line of storms sooner like mid morning for Tampa area then early afternoon in Orlando.

448. bwtranch

thank you for such an entertaining post.
what happening to the el nino? looks to be getting eroded.
Check out these 18Z (afternoon high temps) for Jan. 1st.
80s in southern Florida and 20 degrees in south central Texas.
Quoting 506. Sfloridacat5:

Check out these 18Z (afternoon high temps) for Jan. 1st.
80s in southern Florida and 20 degrees in south central Texas.



Did you see my post on what the Euro has for 80% of Texas? May not occur as the Euro says but it is showing snow for a good chunk of Texas. It almost appears as Winter has left FL as I don't see any cold snaps for FL at all in the long range that can change though but as of right now it appears C & S FL is going to enter January very warm and humid.

A soaking rain, possibly with embedded thunderstorms and strong wind, will envelop the East Coast, including the I-95 corridor. Despite the rain, near-record-high temperatures in the 50s and 60s are possible in the Boston-to-Washington corridor. Thunderstorms could reach as far north as the eastern Great Lakes and southern New England. A few storms could turn severe from the Carolinas south to Florida and possibly parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians.

Another storm brings mountain snow and valley rain to the Northwest, northern California, and the northern Rockies, spreading into the Great Basin and Wasatch at night. Falling temperatures may bring some light snow accumulation to elevations as low as 2,000 feet in western Washington and western Oregon.
We need to watch this across the FL penisula tomorrow as I am not sold this line is going to weaken as it approaches the west coast of FL as there is a lot of air moving west of FL this morning. Seems to be that strong upper air dynamics might be in place as the line arrives to the west coast of FL.

Quoting 505. wunderweatherman123:

what happening to the el nino? looks to be getting eroded.
the el nino coming soon by april
94P
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Did you see my post on what the Euro has for 80% of Texas? May not occur as the Euro says but it is showing snow for a good chunk of Texas. It almost appears as Winter has left FL as I don't see any cold snaps for FL at all in the long range that can change though but as of right now it appears C & S FL is going to enter January very warm and humid.



Yeah, its looking like a major punch of cold air down deep into Texas. This could be their chance for frozen precipitation.
South Central and Southern Texas usually gets one or two chances for ice/snow each season.

I was actually in San Antonio when they got 13" of snow. This was back in the 80s. My parent had a house on the north side of the city at the time.

Folks El-Nino is here by this read from the bom today.

Near El Niño conditions persist in tropical Pacific Ocean

Issued on 23 December 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The tropical Pacific Ocean continues to border on El Niño thresholds, with rainfall patterns around the Pacific Ocean basin, and at times further afield, displaying El Niño-like patterns over recent months.

Indicators remain broadly consistent with borderline El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperatures have exceeded thresholds for a number of weeks, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has generally been negative for the past few months. Trade winds have been near-average along the equator, but weaker in the broader tropical belt. Together, these indicate some weak coupling of the atmosphere and ocean may be occuring.

Climate models expect little change over the next two to three months, with most predicting a persistence of the current warm sea surface temperatures. If current conditions do persist or strengthen into next year, 2014–15 is likely to be considered a weak El Niño. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker status remains at ALERT.


Summer 2015 JJA from the CFSv2
Good Morning. Today's relative position of the Conus jet per GFS and the slight risk category for parts of the Gulf.  Looking like a regular squall line passage with a few gusty cells and not even close to any organized severe weather.





Yikes! Now this is one heck of a SOI crash!! -37.2 on the daily is the highest so far this year I believe

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 23 Dec 2014
Average for last 30 days -7.4
Average for last 90 days -7.1
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -37.2

517. txjac
Good morning all. 53F here at the moment ...and thunder ...not much rain though.



the weather for December 23, 2014 48 F new york city and boston 46F with light rain

wow!!
Quoting 511. Skyepony:

94P



Incredible cold clouds!!! O_O
Those wondering why is the CFSv2 are trending high for Summer 2015 and the proof is here as there is another pool about to come across the Pacific with 4 & 5C anomalies at 60E and it should be noted that the Euro has been trending toward the CFS the last few months.

ESPI however is way down.

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is -0.62
Quoting 498. Sfloridacat5:

06Z GFS is now showing a band of snow that develops on Dec. 28th across west Texas and Oklahoma and then extends to Virginia (Washington DC area) on Dec. 29th.

Bawhahahaha!.It shows snow so that means it'll be rain or sunny!.
Well it looks like a lot of peoples "cold and snowy winter" forecast could be in jeopardy
Link
528. Murko
Thanks Tim and Wyvern (412 & 413). BBC World weather said a tropical storm is developing and moving towards. Sri Lanka over the next few days. Sipping a Long Island Ice tea high above the clouds over Kandy at the moment. Been raining for days. 3 people dead and 60,000 displaced so far from landslides and flooding. Can't get on wunderground easily, but if anyone can inbox me model tracks for the disturbance, if any appear, I'd be grateful. Cheers. Mark
Quoting washingtonian115:
Bawhahahaha!.It shows snow so that means it'll be rain or sunny!.


You need to keep your eye on it.
After we moved from Washington DC to the Oklahoma City area, I notice a pattern that when we had a decent snow in central Oklahoma a day or two later it would snow heavily in Washington DC.

When we first moved from Washington DC to Oklahoma City, Washington DC had a really bad snow storm right after we got a few inches of snow in Oklahoma City.
Something to watch for to see if it sets up.
already looking for 2015 CV season this winter is not amounting to much
Quoting 526. washingtonian115:

Well it looks like a lot of peoples "cold and snowy winter" forecast could be in jeopardy
Link

That's a good read from DT. He's crazy, but he knows weather, and I think he's spot on with his post. That powerful Pacific jet and its connection to the QBO is killing the cold and snowy forecasts. As I suspected, last night's new ECMWF weeklies continued to trend warmer. I think we'll see a much meeker, briefer, and more West-based than anticipated cold shot following the Christmas storm, followed by a switch around January 5-10 to a milder pattern which may last through January 20 or so. After that, perhaps we go over to the more variable pattern, which would bring snow opportunities. But we've heard that before. In terms of prolonged cold though, I'm becoming more confident it doesn't happen at all this winter, certainly not on the level of what we saw last year. Occasional cold blasts of course, we get those every winter, but nothing sustained.
Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 515 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018- 019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-09 9-232200- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITCHFIELD...VANDALIA...SALEM... CHESTER...QUINCY...EDWARDSVILLE...BELLEVILLE...HAN NIBAL... BOWLING GREEN...COLUMBIA...MEXICO...JEFFERSON CITY...ST CHARLES... UNION...ST LOUIS...FARMINGTON 515 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014 ...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR SOME AREAS OF THE BI-STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... A NEW STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY NIGHTFALL WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALREADY MOVE INTO PARTS OF OUR REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PRECIPITATION THEN PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THE MOST PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA...AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FIRST MOVES IN LATER TODAY TO RESULT IN RAIN. BUT BY LATE TONIGHT... AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A WET SNOW. THIS CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. AREAS THAT HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL EXTEND FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR TOWARDS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IT IS HERE WHERE THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW THAT WILL PRIMARILY ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES. IN ADDITION...THERE ALSO APPEARS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF A VERY NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT COULD RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF SAINT LOUIS METRO SHOULD RECEIVE NO MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW...IF ANY AT ALL. FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE IMPACTS OF THIS SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL TO ROADS DUE TO TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WARM GROUND. BUT IF THE VERY NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES... SNOW OR SLUSH COVERED ROADS WILL LIKELY RESULT AND WILL OVERLAP MORNING RUSH HOUR TIMES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS WITH THIS STORM AND BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SOME PARTS OF THIS FORECAST MAY STILL CHANGE AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TIMES AND POTENTIAL. $$ TES
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Wohh nelly! CFSv2 bringing El Nino back into a moderate to high category. biased to downwelling KW surfacing
Quoting 530. islander101010:

already looking for 2015 CV season this winter is not amounting to much


Yeah Winter here in C & S FL is very short so as it stands you figure we got 6 weeks left here as come mid February temps begin to trend up pretty fast especially as March 1st hits.




poamma group of models....can anyone tell which is the only one showing a strong event?.......only one...all the other models don't show it......we'll let ventrice tell you why.......now if you choose to believe this one model....and discount every other one.....your choice.....crow anyone?
if i could say what i want to say to would be banned from the blog forever...
so i will ask santa again for kindness & honesty
here4's the cpc set of models.......once again....can you find the only model that is out of whack to all the others?..........and do you notice...that the euro....does not agree with the model that is out of whack........

Quoting 535. ricderr:





poamma group of models....can anyone tell which is the only one showing a strong event?.......only one...all the other models don't show it......we'll let ventrice tell you why.......now if you choose to believe this one model....and discount every other one.....your choice.....crow anyone?


Let me make it clear i never said we are going to have a strong El-Nino in 2015 what i have said and continue to say that the Euro has trended toward the CFS and that is fact no matter how you slice. So in other words no crow here but nice try. I think there are some on here that need crow for saying that El-Nino won't last thru 2015 which appears that it will . It also appears the POAMA trended higher on this latest update too climbing back to 0.8C which is actually in line with the CFSv2 and Euro for next June its not until there after when models differ.
Quoting 537. ricderr:

here4's the cpc set of models.......once again....can you find the only model that is out of whack to all the others?..........and do you notice...that the euro....does not agree with the model that is out of whack........




???

Euro multi enso
Morning, everyone. We've had some pretty good rain come through Baton Rouge earlier. Anyone having any difficulty with NWS this morning? I was trying to call up info for the tornado warning over in Acadiana (SW LA), but was unable to do so.

GEOS-5 this afternoon..



Overnight..
Fighting over El-Nino forecasts, its just like your favorite book, it never gets old even though the story never changes. :)
A forcast is not accurate because it has model support. A forcast is accurate if, and only if, it verifies. It would seem that not counting your chickens before they hatch is particularly applicable to the weather
Quoting 541. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 this afternoon..



Overnight..



Focus for the heavies storms seems to be shifting east toward the FL Big Bend as there is a tremendous amount of convection firing in the NE Gulf this morning. Even some storms firing off of Tampa which was no expected today.

Wow, the Gulf Coast is really exploding with activity.
Let me make it clear i never said we are going to have a strong El-Nino in 2015 what i have said and continue to say that the Euro has trended toward the CFS and that is fact no matter how you slice


scott....you're looking at the euro plume...and not the euro means......when you compare the means of both the euro...and also the cfsv2.......they are in no way alike,.......so no...i'm going to have to politely disagree...
The Hukou waterfall on China's Yellow River, the country's 2nd largest waterfall, is freezing..

Published on Dec 23, 2014
Extremely cold temperatures have frozen parts of the Hukou waterfall on the Yellow River in north-west China.
People could see a wall of ice on the banks of the river.
The entire waterfall could soon be completely frozen.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
929 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES LAFAYETTE...
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...ST. MARTINVILLE...CATAHOULA...BREAUX BRIDGE...
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CST

* AT 927 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF YOUNGSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CADE...BROUSSARD...CECILIA...HENDERSON AND BUTTE LA ROSE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 930 AM UNTIL
600 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MOBILE ALABAMA TO 30 MILES WEST OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
this chart gives you an accurate look at both the cfsv2 and the euro without the noise of the plumes.....am i missing something thinking they are not alike?


Biggest issue for folks driving in parts of North Florida and Southern AL and GA the last two days has been the high humidity-dew points and the fog. It was very foggy last evening along the I-10/Tallahassee corridor and again this morning. Just hear from a co-worker that their family driving from AL to Tally this morning are moving pretty slow and caught in the fog at the moment.
Quoting 549. Sfloridacat5:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 930 AM UNTIL
600 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MOBILE ALABAMA TO 30 MILES WEST OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&



Several supercells in Lousiana right now. Also the NE Gulf is lightning up like a Christmas tree right now.

Heavy squall line gonna pass through me in Tally within the next hour but everything should clear out by tomorrow. I would stay off of I-10 today in North Florida if possible as these lines roll through.
Boy look at this appendage on this cell passing north of Lake Charles.

Tornadoes, Severe Storms Before Christmas?

Last-minute shoppers may be dodging more than just traffic in the South over the next 36 hours.
Safe to say were finally getting some good rains in NW Florida, looks like moderate to heavy rain all day into the night hours today!

Link
Yeah, surprised that cell doesn't have a tornado warning on it.
Looks to be a developing tornado north of DeQuincy, LA very tight hook echo on that cell.

This site won't let me zoom in and save the image. This is one serious looking cell.

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united- states/la/lake-charles/lch/?region=msy
Environment Pollution in USA on Tuesday, 23 December, 2014 at 12:08 (12:08 PM) UTC.
Description
Officials at Cook Nuclear Plant reported the plant released approximately 2,000 gallons of oil into Lake Michigan Saturday, and that the spill was reported to local, state and federal agencies. "On Saturday, a declining level trend on a Unit 2 main turbine lube oil reservoir was being investigated when the leak was identified and stopped," a media release stated. "The turbine lube oil system contains approximately 25,000 gallons of non-radioactive oil. The hot oil runs across tubes in a heat exchanger that is cooled by water from Lake Michigan. It is believed the oil leaked into a tube or tubes and was mixed into the cooling water. The leak, calculated at approximately 0.04 gallons per minute, could not be detected in the total water discharge flow of 1.5 million gallons per minute," the release said. Plant officials contacted Berrien County Sheriff's Department Emergency Management, along with the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. "We had been actively troubleshooting the level decline and closely monitoring our water discharge before we identified there actually was a leak and found the likely source," said plant Environmental Manager Jon Harner in the release. "Our searches haven't detected any oil on the beach or in the lake. We'll continue to monitor the situation." The Cook plant is owned by Indiana Michigan Power.






watch out for severe weather
Quoting 557. Sfloridacat5:

Yeah, surprised that cell doesn't have a tornado warning on it.



You can clearly see the hook on the cell extend outward.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings



Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.



SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1011 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 954 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 952 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 951 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 943 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 940 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
TORNADO WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 929 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
Severe Thunderstorm Warning including New Roads LA, St. Francisville LA, Livonia LA until 10:45 AM CST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1036 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2014

...Severe Weather and Flooding Remain Possible Across the Region
Today and Tomorrow...

.Hydrology...
Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms will result in widespread
rain amounts of 3-4 inches with higher amounts in excess of 6 inches
through Wednesday. Rain will end across southeast AL and the FL
panhandle by noon Wednesday, and across southwest GA and northern FL
Wednesday evening. Most rivers have started out at low levels, so
even significant rises will result in stage increases to only minor
flooding. A few points will reach moderate flooding later in the
week, such as in the Ochlockonee basin.


&&

.Prev Discussion [1022 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface analysis this morning shows two warm fronts over our area-
the synoptic front along the FL-GA border that extends NWward across
central AL and an offshore warm front around 50 nm offshore along
the FL coastline. A cold front lies to our west across the Arklatex.
Moisture is plentiful with southerly flow at the surface and deep
layer southwesterly flow continuing to bring warm, moist air from
the Gulf. The 12Z TAE sounding showed a PWAT of 1.68", which is 2
standard deviations above normal. Some spots in the western FL Big
Bend having already received about 2-3" of rain. Continued heavy
rainfall on top of already wet soil makes flooding is a main concern
with this system. Rainfall totals for today and tomorrow are
expected to be 3-5.5" with isolated amounts even higher possible.

There is a severe weather threat with these storms, with the
potential for isolated tornadoes, damaging straight-line winds and
hail. Model MLCAPE for the warning area is around 500 J/kg with
0-6km shear of 40-50kts. This high shear low CAPE environment will
be favorable for supercell development. The 12Z sounding shows steep
lapse rate from 800-550mb as well. Our low level (0-1km) shear of
15-20kts, which will support tornado development in supercells that
form, especially if they form behind the currently offshore warm
front. Overnight, as the main squall line approaches, the low level
jet will set up over our area, which will mean the potential for an
isolated tornado to be embedded in a QLCS line and and will increase
the potential for damaging straight-line winds.

53
WUUS54 KLIX 231620
SVRLIX
LAC047-077-125-231645-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0087.141223T1620Z-141223T1645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1020 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW ROADS...
SOUTH CENTRAL WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ST. FRANCISVILLE...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CST

* AT 1017 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOTTIE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KROTZ
SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LIVONIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3082 9150 3079 9125 3078 9125 3077 9126
3076 9126 3075 9128 3073 9129 3040 9161
3051 9170
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 209DEG 34KT 3051 9161

365
WFUS54 KLCH 231629
TORLCH
LAC003-011-231700-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0014.141223T1629Z-141223T1700Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1029 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES MITTIE...
EAST CENTRAL BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES DRY CREEK...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CST

* AT 1025 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF
DRY CREEK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HARMONY AND GRANT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.



PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3088 9288 3053 9279 3059 9318 3070 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 1629Z 237DEG 32KT 3067 9315

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


You can clearly see the hook on the cell extend outward.


They finally issued a tornado warning for the cell.
270  
WUUS54 KLIX 231631  
SVRLIX  
MSC113-147-231700-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0088.141223T1631Z-141223T1700Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1031 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHWESTERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 1100 AM CST  
 
* AT 1028 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND  
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR  
MAGNOLIA...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCCOMB...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
45 MPH.  
 
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL  
AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE  
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD  
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...  
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.  
 
PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE  
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND  
PHOTOS.  
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING  
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3134 9009 3106 9041 3114 9052 3136 9036  
3136 9016  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 224DEG 40KT 3119 9038  
 

Tornado Warning for Allen and Beauregard Parishes in LA until 11:00 AM CST

LCH issues Tornado Warning for Allen, Beauregard [LA] till 11:00 AM CST

11:32 AM EST on December 23, 2014

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

AMITE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
WILKINSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CST

* AT 1031 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
WAKEFIELD...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF ST. FRANCISVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WOODVILLE BY 1045 AM CST...

Fighting over El-Nino forecasts, its just like your favorite book, it never gets old even though the story never changes. :)



lol.....i'm glad we keep you entertained......however....i'm not fighting...nor do i think scott is.....personally i just disagree with the information posted...and want to offer another look at things


Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Magnolia MS until 11:00 AM CST
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1036 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014 LAC003-011-231700- /O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-141223T1700Z/ BEAUREGARD LA-ALLEN LA- 1036 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST FOR CENTRAL ALLEN AND EAST CENTRAL BEAUREGARD PARISHES... AT 1034 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A TORNADO ON RADAR. THIS RADAR INDICATED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DRY CREEK..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BUNDICK LAKE...HARMONY...MITTIE AND GRANT PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. && LAT...LON 3059 9281 3060 9315 3072 9317 3088 9288 TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 237DEG 32KT 3069 9308 $$ BRAZZELL
All sorts of warnings out for the Southeast right now. Not a setup supportive of strong tornadoes, but several weak, brief spin-ups are possible, along with heavy rain and damaging non-tornadic winds.

New Updates from SPC

Tornado


Wind


Full article can be found here- SPC Report
I'll tell you what, the rain is coming down hard in the panhandle right now, I bet all those last minute Christmas shoppers aren't too happy right now!
Don't know if Dr. M is going to update the blog today but I will say that the warm flow from the Gulf is doing a number with the front in LA and those parts. As typical in the big bend, Apalachee Bay has a stabilizing effect on the fronts because of our topography relative to the Gulf so the nasty looking line about to hit us in Tallahassee fizzed out a bit after crossing the Apalachicola..........Happens almost every time around here then the cells perk up again as they travel East of us towards I-75 on the way to Jax.
Quoting 573. ricderr:


Fighting over El-Nino forecasts, its just like your favorite book, it never gets old even though the story never changes. :)



lol.....i'm glad we keep you entertained......however....i'm not fighting...nor do i think scott is.....personally i just disagree with the information posted...and want to offer another look at things
Great post Ric...many pluses
Quoting 573. ricderr:


Fighting over El-Nino forecasts, its just like your favorite book, it never gets old even though the story never changes. :)



lol.....i'm glad we keep you entertained......however....i'm not fighting...nor do i think scott is.....personally i just disagree with the information posted...and want to offer another look at things


No, but I am cranky today as I am very con-jested and of coarse its busy today here at work. Talking while con-jested not a good combination. Anyways Merry Christmas Ric

Fog in the Central Valley. Windy and warm here, 75.2F outside.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...CLINTON...
ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CST

* AT 1049 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES WEST OF
SLAUGHTER...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST. FRANCISVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
NORWOOD AND FELPS

Pending any updates from Dr. M, I want to wish everyone a safe and happy holiday and particularly the regulars. Car is in the shop, sharing one with the Wife, youngest daughter's friend at the house adding "stuff" to the Christmas tree and the oldest one coming down from Atlanta tomorrow, and trying to get the car fixed by tomorrow (only gift I really need this year).

It has been a rough several months for me and the family with multiple issues (a few hospitalizations, auto accident, and house roof problems) the last eight weeks but things starting to settle down in the last 5 days.

Keep the faith and love the ones you love and make time for them this holiday season. Here is hoping and praying for a happier and healthier 2015 for everyone.

Quoting 394. Astrometeor:



I'm 5'11" and weigh 137 pounds after picking up 2 lbs over the course of my fall freshman semester of college. Doc tells me I'm in perfect health.

*shrug*

Not much muscle on me, but there's nothing I can do about that. Metabolism can burn through anything.


I was 6"4" and 150lb at the end of my freshman year of college. No weight gain that year at all. Then I got a job as a laborer at a golf course (ditchdigging.. that sort of thing) and gained fifteen pounds that summer, all muscle.

I stayed near ideal weight till 30 (190lb) then got a job where the boss liked long lunches and gained 25 pounds in two years. Then I got married and gained another 50. Metabolism slowed way down at 32.

I used to run but bad knee, and plantar fascitis and catch-22 overweight keeps me from doing long distance now.
And tennis elbow keeps me from splitting lots of wood in winter and digging a lot in the garden in summer. Back
is still in good shape. A real exercise program with emphasis on preventing injury would probably help a lot.

Stress eating (very rough times at home.. not proper blog topic) crushed my fitness plans this fall.

Bottom line, your metabolism will slow when you are into adulthood, change your eating habits and eat more
carefully when that happens. Also physical strength is the LAST thing to go.. flexibility declines much faster and is harder to get back once lost. Stamina declines but can come back quickly with aerobic training.
Quoting 585. PedleyCA:


Fog in the Central Valley. Windy and warm here, 75.2F outside.


Snowing (flurries, really) and 28F here. It's the most wonderful time of the year.

Planning on going to North Pole, AK this weekend. Although that head-on double fatal crash on the parks highway has me thinking that maybe I don't want to drive...
Quoting 588. georgevandenberghe:



I was 6"4" and 150lb at the end of my freshman year of college. No weight gain that year at all. Then I got a job as a laborer at a golf course (ditchdigging.. that sort of thing) and gained fifteen pounds that summer, all muscle.

I stayed near ideal weight till 30 (190lb) then got a job where the boss liked long lunches and gained 25 pounds in two years. Then I got married and gained another 50. Metabolism slowed way down at 32.

I used to run but bad knee, and plantar fascitis and catch-22 overweight keeps me from doing long distance now.
And tennis elbow keeps me from splitting lots of wood in winter and digging a lot in the garden in summer. Back
is still in good shape. A real exercise program with emphasis on preventing injury would probably help a lot.

Stress eating (very rough times at home.. not proper blog topic) crushed my fitness plans this fall.

Bottom line, your metabolism will slow when you are into adulthood, change your eating habits and eat more
carefully when that happens. Also physical strength is the LAST thing to go.. flexibility declines much faster and is harder to get back once lost. Stamina declines but can come back quickly with aerobic training.



Words to live by for sure... Ohh and when 40 hits, all kinds of other things start to change to. Like vision and hearing. Then according to my older friends your memory goes, and then your memory goes.
Quoting 589. Dakster:



Snowing (flurries, really) and 28F here. It's the most wonderful time of the year.

Planning on going to North Pole, AK this weekend. Although that head-on double fatal crash on the parks highway has me thinking that maybe I don't want to drive...


Sure. Rub it in!!! You left us and we are stuck here melting!

Broken Clouds Broken Clouds
81F
Feels Like: 84
Wind Chill: 81 Ceiling: 1800
Heat Index: 84 Visibility: 10mi
Dew Point: 70 Wind: 16mph
Humidity: 69% Direction: 140SE
Pressure: 29.97" Gusts: NA


Looks like it could be a wet 2 weeks across FL per the GFS

12Z GFS on Jan. 1st

12 degrees in Dallas Tx. Below zero temperatures down to northern Arkansas.



12Z GFS on Jan. 2nd

0 degrees in the Washington DC area and 18 degrees in the Florida Panhandle. South Florida is still holding off the cold air.


Quoting 590. Dakster:



Words to live by for sure... Ohh and when 40 hits, all kinds of other things start to change to. Like vision and hearing. Then according to my older friends your memory goes, and then your memory goes.


I still have my memory. You can protect your hearing by avoiding loud noises throughout your life and yes that's EXTREMELY important. Nothing you can really do about losing lens flexibility in early 40s. But one of the benefits of being nearsighted is that you can read and do close work without glasses whereas most people with normal vision will need reading glasses after that age.
Great post Ric...many pluses

waterwitch posted last week her christmas wish was that everyone would get along....i'm playing santa and doing my part to make it come true...and my new year resolution will be not to be banned....at all.......for anything....doesn't mean i'm not going to not take a stand...back down...or call someone to task when they're wrong....nor will i close the crow factory...i will though......conform to the rules set up by our benefactors
Very unstable atmosphere
Words to live by for sure... Ohh and when 40 hits, all kinds of other things start to change to. Like vision and hearing. Then according to my older friends your memory goes, and then your memory goes.


my memory is just fine...it's everyone elses that is suffering...i know darn well i didn't say the same thing three times in a row
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
602. txjac
Quoting 587. weathermanwannabe:

Pending any updates from Dr. M, I want to wish everyone a safe and happy holiday and particularly the regulars. Car is in the shop, sharing one with the Wife, youngest daughter's friend at the house adding "stuff" to the Christmas tree and the oldest one coming down from Atlanta tomorrow, and trying to get the car fixed by tomorrow (only gift I really need this year).

It has been a rough several months for me and the family with multiple issues (a few hospitalizations, auto accident, and house roof problems) the last eight weeks but things starting to settle down in the last 5 days.

Keep the faith and love the ones you love and make time for them this holiday season. Here is hoping and praying for a happier and healthier 2015 for everyone.




Wish I could plus this more than once. You have a blessed Christmas with your family and friends
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


I was 6"4" and 150lb at the end of my freshman year of college. No weight gain that year at all. Then I got a job as a laborer at a golf course (ditchdigging.. that sort of thing) and gained fifteen pounds that summer, all muscle.

I stayed near ideal weight till 30 (190lb) then got a job where the boss liked long lunches and gained 25 pounds in two years. Then I got married and gained another 50. Metabolism slowed way down at 32.

I used to run but bad knee, and plantar fascitis and catch-22 overweight keeps me from doing long distance now.
And tennis elbow keeps me from splitting lots of wood in winter and digging a lot in the garden in summer. Back
is still in good shape. A real exercise program with emphasis on preventing injury would probably help a lot.

Stress eating (very rough times at home.. not proper blog topic) crushed my fitness plans this fall.

Bottom line, your metabolism will slow when you are into adulthood, change your eating habits and eat more
carefully when that happens. Also physical strength is the LAST thing to go.. flexibility declines much faster and is harder to get back once lost. Stamina declines but can come back quickly with aerobic training.


Well, maybe. I have a high metabolism. All my elders told me I would gain weight as I got older. And I did. I went from a 28 waist to a 29!
604. MahFL
1.6 inches of rain so far on day 3 of the 4 day rain event, here in Orange Park.
671  
WFUS54 KJAN 231830  
TORJAN  
MSC077-085-231915-  
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0081.141223T1830Z-141223T1915Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1230 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 115 PM CST  
 
* AT 1230 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EAST LINCOLN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
SONTAG AROUND 1240 PM CST.  
WANILLA AROUND 1245 PM CST.  
OMA AROUND 1250 PM CST.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE NEW HEBRON.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3152 9037 3173 9020 3175 9014 3176 8997  
3164 8997 3143 9026  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 216DEG 45KT 3151 9029  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.50IN  
 
 
 
DHB  
 
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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1231 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1226 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1209 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1207 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1205 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING PEACHTREE CITY GA - KFFC 1259 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1157 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1152 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1148 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1128 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1125 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1120 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1115 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1112 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1110 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1109 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1101 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1053 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1052 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1051 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1046 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014<>br style="color: rgb(0, 51, 102); font-family: Times;