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No Tropical Storm Formation Expected in the Atlantic This Week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:49 PM GMT on June 16, 2014

There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the coming five days. The operational GFS model, which had been predicting all of last week that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical storm would develop over the Western Caribbean late this week, has now backed off on that forecast, though a few members of the GFS ensemble forecast are still predicting development in the Southwest Caribbean late this week. As I explained in Friday's blog post, the GFS model's forecasts of tropical development occurring in the Western Caribbean are likely bogus. Vertical wind shear will be very high over most of the tropical Atlantic this week, and there will be a large amount of dry, sinking air, making it difficult for tropical storms to form. It's a different story in the Eastern Pacific, where low wind shear and moist conditions may lead to the formation of a new tropical depression late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave a 30% chance that a tropical depression could form by Saturday, a few hundred miles south of Mexico's Pacific coast. This morning's 00Z run of the European model supports formation of a tropical depression late this week in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 1. Predicted vertical wind shear between the 850 mb and 200 mb levels for 8 am EDT Friday, June 20, 2014, as predicted by the 00Z Monday, June 16, 2014 run of the European model. High wind shear is predicted for most of the tropical Atlantic, thanks to the presence of strong upper-level winds from the subtropical jet stream. The region marked "Low Shear" in the Eastern Pacific has been given a 30% chance of spawning a tropical depression by Saturday in NHC's 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

weakening even more


Thanks Dr. Masters.

I can see this year being quite similar to 2009. First named storm didn't form until mid-August, and of course there were a few nice storms, but most of them were messy, sheared tropical storms.
thanx doc....looks like that shear won't let anything happen
Thanks Doc.
wow.....we're in h-season.......doc posts a new blog....and silence....
Quoting 1. JRRP:

weakening even more




Where is all that heat going?
weakening even more


it's an anomaly graph....so as we enter summer....and the waters of the pacific heat up...the anomaly is less
Quoting cRRKampen:

Where is all that heat going?

well i do not have a clue
Quoting ricderr:
weakening even more


it's an anomaly graph....so as we enter summer....and the waters of the pacific heat up...the anomaly is less

yeah
anyone have thoughts on severe weather today?
Anyone know the significance of July 9th? A coconut for the first correct answer!
Someone must have slapped the GFS model in the face and got it back on track.
Quoting 10. MAstu:

anyone have thoughts on severe weather today?

The potential's definitely there for a few intense supercells that produce all modes of severe weather, but the question is, will it end up busting just like other events in the region this year?

We'll have to wait and see how the storms mature when they develop this afternoon/evening.
Watching the real time action via sources easily available, is a lot better tool to "learn" from, than frame worshiping out into weeks.


Anyone know the significance of July 9th? A coconut for the first correct answer!



skateboarder cleared the great wall of china


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/SERN SD/SWRN MN/WRN IA/FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301...

VALID 161519Z - 161715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS -- POSING A CONTINUED RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL -- MAY ALSO BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
WRN IA AND ADJACENT AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORMS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN NEB ATTM...WITH A SECONDARY CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SERN QUARTER OF SD. STORMS
REMAIN ELEVATED ATTM...LIMITING PRIMARY SEVERE RISK TO LARGE HAIL.

WITH TIME HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE WRN IA/SWRN MN VICINITY
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD BENEATH
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THIS AREA.
WHILE HEATING IS BEING HAMPERED IN MOST AREAS BY EXPANDING ANVIL
DEBRIS...EXPECT THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED
WITH TIME AS THEY CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY.

CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL THAT
THE SD CONVECTION AND THAT OVER ERN NEB MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A
LARGE MCS...AND GIVEN INCREASING CAPE ALONG WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW SUPPORTIVE OF WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION...DOWNSTREAM WW WILL
LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY MIDDAY.

..GOSS.. 06/16/2014
Thank You Dr.; the 5 day or less rule (along with multi-model consensus) is a good rule of thumb for "watch and wait" scenarios in the absence of pre-existing disturbance as related to cyclogenesis.

Watching the real time action via sources easily available, is a lot better tool to "learn" than frame worshiping out into weeks.


but unless you look at unreliable models....there's not much to see :-)
Quoting 17. ricderr:

Anyone know the significance of July 9th? A coconut for the first correct answer!



skateboarder cleared the great wall of china


Well, a skateboarder may well have cleared the Great Wall of China, but I highly suspect you just made that up. The answer relates to the topic of the blog.
Well, a skateboarder may well have cleared the Great Wall of China, but I highly suspect you just made that up. The answer relates to the topic of the blog.



nope it actually happened...let me find it

Danny Way already held the world records for distance (24 meters / 79 feet) and unaided height (7.14 meters / 23.5 feet) while skateboarding, but that wasn't enough. Today, Danny Way set a new world record. Danny Way is the first person to leap the wall without a motor vehicle and land successfully. Not only that, today Danny Way pulled off the jump over the Great Wall of China five times in front of a crowd of Chinese dignitaries and officials, along with his family and friends and thousands of locals.
Was still w/o Power post Hurricane Cindy on July 9th, 2005.

But dat ain't right, I know.

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Anyone know the significance of July 9th? A coconut for the first correct answer!


i believe i found it......i'll let someone else answer as i didn't know it but had to use google
Closer look at the northern batch of severe storms.



Closer look at the southern batch of severe storms.
Tornadoraiders are streaming live on the southern most severe cell in Nebraska.
Thanks Jeff...
Under a risk of severe weather for the next three days. With the severe weather (or lack thereof) in Southern Wisconsin this year, I am excited. Bring on the storms!
Quoting 25. ricderr:

Anyone know the significance of July 9th? A coconut for the first correct answer!


i believe i found it......i'll let someone else answer as i didn't know it but had to use google



Googling is permitted :). Germany v Portugal has just kicked off in the World Cup, so I'm otherwise engaged for a couple of hours. The answer (as you probably googled) is that July 9th is the average date of the first named Atlantic storm (probably later in El Nino years).
Quoting 23. Patrap:

Was still w/o Power post Hurricane Cindy on July 9th, 2005.

But dat ain't right, I know.




I forgot about Cindy. 2005 would have really been an incredible year for me to track and forecast, but I was too young to have an ounce of intelligence on meteorological subjects. We had the hurricanes (obviously) and our family had an EF3 tornado strike less than a mile North of our house in August. One person was killed.



Link

Link
It's a nice day! Some people are out living their lives!

Quoting 5. ricderr:

wow.....we're in h-season.......doc posts a new blog....and silence....
Quoting 7. ricderr:

weakening even more


it's an anomaly graph....so as we enter summer....and the waters of the pacific heat up...the anomaly is less
It's measured at the equator; does it really make much difference? Does it increase twice a year?

Keep a close eye on the cell west of Omaha. It looks like it's becoming surface-based.
36. JRRP
see you later... go to se Germany vs Portugal
Quoting 12. yonzabam:
Anyone know the significance of July 9th? A coconut for the first correct answer!


Lituya Bay Tsunami in Alaska in 1958

Coconut?
Thank you Dr, Masters...Good to hear tropics are quiet.... heading to Xenia for a visit to relatives.
Quoting 12. yonzabam:

Anyone know the significance of July 9th? A coconut for the first correct answer!
O.J. Simpson's birthday
"You can observe a lot just by watching."
July 9

The Roman military commander Avitus is proclaimed Emperor of the Western Roman Empire.

Edit: Ooo, ooo.

Odoacer makes a night assault with his Heruli guardsmen, engaging Theoderic the Great in Ad Pinetam. Both sides suffer heavy losses, but in the end Theodoric forces Odoacer back into Ravenna.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 301
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

IAC085-133-155-NEC021-055-173-177-161900-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.A.0301.000000T0000Z-140616T1900Z/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN IOWA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST IOWA

HARRISON POTTAWATTAMIE

IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA

MONONA

IN NEBRASKA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA

BURT DOUGLAS WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

THURSTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BLAIR...COUNCIL BLUFFS...DECATUR...
DUNLAP...LOGAN...LYONS...MACY...MAPLETON...MISSOU RI VALLEY...
OAKLAND...OMAHA...ONAWA...PENDER...TEKAMAH...WALT HILL...
WINNEBAGO AND WOODBINE.

$$
July 9, 2011: Space Shuttle Atlantis, on its final mission, completes the OBSS inspection of its heatshield.

But I'm assuming that's not right, either. :P
It's a nice day! Some people are out living their lives!


that's very nice...i consider myself lucky and am very grateful i can do both
Anyone know the significance of July 9th? A coconut for the first correct answer!


9 July 2010 - New GFS physical parameterization package to be implemented in operational GFS on 29 July 2010 is now also running in the FIMZ version. FIMZ real-time products over the western Atlantic domain.
Quoting 12. yonzabam:

Anyone know the significance of July 9th? A coconut for the first correct answer!


The first coconut washed ashore on the Hawaii islands, July 9, 1,000,234 B.C.E. (and don't tell me I'm wrong, I was there.)
Pretty nice bow echo on that northern cell.

Quoting 1. JRRP:

weakening even more





Great news
Interesting feature off our coast in SE FL


After a low of 52 this am.....up to 73 now....another very nice day in Sooo Cal

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 16 Jun 10:09 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 16 Jun 10:00 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
16 Jun 10:00 am PDT 73 23 15 SSW 10G17 OK
Quoting 46. Grothar:



The first coconut washed ashore on the Hawaii islands, July 9, 1,000,234 B.C.E. (and don't tell me I'm wrong, I was there.)


Yes, but didn't you say that the first pineapple hadn't washed up for at least 2754 years later? No pina coladas for almost three millennia and a lot of intra-island strife going on?
Quoting calkevin77:


Yes, but didn't you say that the first pineapple hadn't washed up for at least 2754 years later? No pina coladas for almost three millennia and a lot of intra-island strife going on?


Okay we've got a bunch of people fighting. Let's bring in some alcohol and things will just calm right down :-)

Quoting Grothar:


The first coconut washed ashore on the Hawaii islands, July 9, 1,000,234 B.C.E. (and don't tell me I'm wrong, I was there.)


How do you know it was the first?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Interesting feature off our coast in SE FL




Yeah, I showed a radar loop of it earlier this morning in the other blog. I thought it was interesting. We'll have to see if it has any affect on today's T storm development over on the Eastcoast.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF REDWOOD
FALLS MINNESOTA TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DENISON IOWA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 301...

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF SUPERCELLS AND A BOW ECHO IS
UNDERWAY ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES
/SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/
...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...MEAD
For what it's worth, June 2014 looks like it will be the fifth consecutive warmer than normal June, following the fifth consecutive warmer than normal May in the DC area (assessed at BWI since DCA is unrepresentatively warm).
Quoting 48. CaribBoy:



Great news



Bad news
Hurricane Bertha became a major hurricane north of Puerto Rico, with 115 mph winds, the first of six major hurricanes that year. The storm would later threaten Florida and eventually make landfall in North Carolina on July 12th, near Wrightsville Beach.
Quoting 57. Tazmanian:




Bad news


Why?
Quoting 54. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I showed a radar loop of it earlier this morning in the other blog. I thought it was interesting. We'll have to see if it has any affect on today's T storm development over on the Eastcoast.



It is in the 90's here on the east coast. It would be welcome if it slid across

Quoting Ameister12:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF REDWOOD
FALLS MINNESOTA TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DENISON IOWA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 301...

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF SUPERCELLS AND A BOW ECHO IS
UNDERWAY ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES
/SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/
...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...MEAD



HRRR showing strong storms later this afternoon (6pm) across Central Nebraska. Should start seeing the second round of storms starting around 4-5 pms.

That little swirl off the Central coast of Florida is an area of  baroclinic T-storms being generated by the interaction with the upper level/low over that region; here is the chart I posted earlier this morning (the yellow area is the upper level low-that is the swirl you are seeing on the loops).

Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters......
Quoting 10. MAstu:

anyone have thoughts on severe weather today?


Nope, but that is a good Avatar...
Quoting 57. Tazmanian:




Bad news
Taz that is great news.
I'm glad to see everyone in such a good mood today. It really is nice.

So, does anybody think AGW has anything to do with the slow start of the season? :)
Quoting Grothar:
I'm glad to see everyone in such a good mood today. It really is nice.

So, does anybody think AGW has anything to do with the slow start of the season? :)

Yes...No....Maybe...

Let me go find some 300+ GFS models runs that show Miami getting flattened. I'll fake some if I have to, just to stir the pot. :-)
Quoting 67. Grothar:
I'm glad to see everyone in such a good mood today. It really is nice.

So, does anybody think AGW has anything to do with the slow start of the season? :)


LOL!!! If that works, you're either a genius or evil. I'll get back to you on that...
Quoting 68. sar2401:


Yes...No....Maybe...

Let me go find some 300+ GFS models runs that show Miami getting flattened. I'll fake some if I have to, just to stir the pot. :-)


There's some vorticity over the southwestern Caribbean at hour 384 on the 12z GFS. Obviously that'll be headed for Florida as a Category 5 Supercane, just in time for the 4th of July.

Quoting 67. Grothar:

I'm glad to see everyone in such a good mood today. It really is nice.

So, does anybody think AGW has anything to do with the slow start of the season? :)


Please put the Pin back in before the Handle falls off........................ Oops .... Boom
Formation probabilities going up on that EPAC system.

Quoting Grothar:
I'm glad to see everyone in such a good mood today. It really is nice.

So, does anybody think AGW has anything to do with the slow start of the season? :)

Some people just don't want to be happy.

SPJDWTBH

Don't think it'll fly like other abbreviations have.

Edit: DTIFLOAH
Quoting 74. bappit:


Some people just don't want to be happy.

SPJDWTBH

Don't think it'll fly like other abbreviations have.


Wha-Wha ................................ edited: DOH
Anyone excited about the US/Ghana match up tonight?
Keeping it weather related...Its warm in Brazil.
Quoting 60. CaribBoy:



Why?


Because an El Nino should be good rains for California.
Quoting 76. calkevin77:

Anyone excited about the US/Ghana match up tonight?
Keeping it weather related...Its warm in Brazil.


Ghana is:

Some countries take the World Cup very seriously: Ghana is rationing electricity just to make sure everyone can watch its soccer match against the United States on Monday.
Quite the dust storm across the basin.

The sky here is completely grey. Not cloudy, just grey. Very hot outside, too. This really reminds me of 2009.
Quoting 31. yonzabam:



Googling is permitted :). Germany v Portugal has just kicked off in the World Cup, so I'm otherwise engaged for a couple of hours.

Hello Yonzabam,

Germans as good as expected, Portugal too much a one man team (and even Ronaldo was invisible) and no longer the quality they had before.
just a few more minutes to the next match (Iran - Nigeria), I'm idiot enough to even go watch that game. Didn't miss anything so far.
Nice world-cup as far as I'm concerned, good matches, surprises, and teams are playing to win in stead of playing not to lose.
Thumbs up for your England, good match against Italy, hope they can play at least that good against Uruguay, but watch out for Suarez.
So, I'm off, world cup calls.....

Quoting 67. Grothar:

I'm glad to see everyone in such a good mood today. It really is nice.

So, does anybody think AGW has anything to do with the slow start of the season? :)
They've been having a lot of AGW in Brazil for the futbol (Anti Goal Weather) and it has probably affected many of the games adversely. Otherwise, not so much. Slow start? Two Cat 4 storms in as many weeks? What more could you ask?
The swirl off the coast of Florida is not related to AGW but may be related to the tropical depression following the Heat loss last night..............................
Quoting 77. jrweatherman:



Because an El Nino should be good rains for California.


And the exact opposite here in the Lesser Antilles, also in a significant drought. As if our 5-6 months dry season wasn't long enough, the rainy season just don't want to start. This is very irritating... the only thing we get is SAL, which is useful in absolutely nothing and can even bring health issues to fragile people.
could it be another Year of the Shear
Quoting 76. calkevin77:

Anyone excited about the US/Ghana match up tonight?
Keeping it weather related...Its warm in Brazil.


No, as it's on at 11 pm, here in the UK (past my bedtime). Otherwise, it would be the match I'm most interested in today. Ghana have beaten the USA 2-1 in the past two World Cups, but that means nothing for this match.

It's one of the toughest groups, and the US really need to win to have a good chance of qualifying. Portugal were a huge disappointment against Germany. If they play like that again, the USA can beat them.
Quoting 80. WeatherNerdPR:

Quite the dust storm across the basin.

The sky here is completely grey. Not cloudy, just grey. Very hot outside, too. This really reminds me of 2009.


Yes... gray and ugly. Because of what? Because of that tenacious african dust. I wish we didn't have to deal with that so often...



Hello gang. Umm, yeah, with 4 "gales" Germany's storm just blasted poor Portugal off the play field ;-) .

For your entertainment here a video of the aftermath of some downpour which hit Italy today (this is in a suburb of Rome). The guy commenting says something like: "Welcome to the opening of a new aquatic park in the metro station of our town - and greetings from the lagunas of Venice."





Moreover:

Storm Hagibis hits China
BBC Weather Video, 16 June 2014 Last updated at 17:13
Hagibis, the first tropical storm of the season, has brought intense rain and strong winds to Taiwan and China. Stav Danaos has more
Interesting reference point; a portion of Dr. Master's Blog entry from June 16, 2007:

June hurricane season outlook; By:
JeffMasters, 11:12 AM EDT on June 16, 2007

Last half of June climatology
The last half of June is usually one of the quietest portions of hurricane season. In the 12 years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, only four tropical storms formed in the last half of June. Thus, recent history gives us a 33% chance of a last-half-of-June named storm. None of those four storms since 1995 became a hurricane, and hurricanes are quite rare in June. Only one major hurricane has has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The primary breeding grounds for last half of June tropical storms is the western Gulf of Mexico (Figure 1).

Summary
Recent history suggests a 33% chance of a named storm occurring in the second half of June. Given that the current SST pattern and two-week wind shear forecast look fairly typical for June, I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming during the last half of June.

Quoting 86. yonzabam:



No, as it's on at 11 pm, here in the UK (past my bedtime). Otherwise, it would be the match I'm most interested in today. Ghana have beaten the USA 2-1 in the past two World Cups, but that means nothing for this match.

It's one of the toughest groups, and the US really need to win to have a good chance of qualifying. Portugal were a huge disappointment against Germany. If they play like that again, the USA can beat them.


Yeah. I'm excited about this match. I think there may be a bit of psych out for the US to get over but it will be a strong game for sure. I'll be leaving work promptly at 4 pm my time to watch :)
HRRR forecast for 5pm today.
Nice development across central and N.E. Nebraska.

Quoting Melagoo:
could it be another Year of the Shear


I wouldn't say that as much as another Year of the Lack of Vertical Instability.

But Year of the Shear has a better rhyme to it.
Quoting 93. CybrTeddy:



I wouldn't say that as much as another Year of the Lack of Vertical Instability.

But Year of the Shear has a better rhyme to it.


Agree, but what's causing it? High SSTs, but failure of tropical storms to develop must mean either higher temperatures than normal in the upper troposphere, or dryer air or SAL.

Even if you aren't interested in soccer so much, it may be worth to have a look at the match tonight because of the weather:

Will the rain continue in Natal for United States-Ghana World Cup match?
WP, by Matt Bonesteel June 16 at 9:28 AM
It's been raining a bunch in Natal, the city on Brazil's northeastern coast where the U.S. men's soccer team kicks off World Cup play on Monday evening against Brazil. Mexico scored a 1-0 win over Cameroon on Friday in Natal in a near-constant downpour, and the city has had more rain over the past couple of days - 13 inches since Friday - than it usually receives for the entire month of June (typically Natal's wettest month). There have been landslides, and the city declared a state of emergency on Sunday. This also happened. ... (more see link above)


@BenTavener, Enormous sinkhole develops, threatens houses in #Natal, NE #Brazil -- http://g1.globo.com/rn/rio-grande-do-norte/noticia /2014/06/casas-correm-risco-de-desmoronar-no-bairr o-de-mae-luiza-em-natal.html %u2026
3:27 PM - 15 Jun 2014

Wish luck to the US and their/our Klinsmann (and the town of Natal), though the match will be too late for me to watch. Have a nice evening, everybody.
Quoting 93. CybrTeddy:



I wouldn't say that as much as another Year of the Lack of Vertical Instability.

But Year of the Shear has a better rhyme to it.
I'm waiting until 2015 Ted.This season has everything going against it.
Quoting bappit:

Some people just don't want to be happy.

SPJDWTBH

Don't think it'll fly like other abbreviations have.

Edit: DTIFLOAH


SP
"Some people" (as used decades ago) works.

Not to be confused with our longtime wu blogger whose shortened handle is "sp."
TORNADO WARNING
IAC143-162000-
/O.NEW.KFSD.TO.W.0017.140616T1935Z-140616T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
235 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
OSCEOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 232 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ASHTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OCHEYEDAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9551 4341 9540 4326 9581 4335 9585
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 240DEG 48KT 4335 9571

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MNC033-063-162330-
/O.NEW.KFSD.FF.W.0024.140616T1923Z-140616T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
223 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COTTONWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING TOWARD THE WARNED
AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCH IN 15 TO 30 MINUTES CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
JACKSON...WINDOM...BERGEN...BINGHAM LAKE...HERON LAKE...JEFFERS...
LAKEFIELD...MOUNTAIN LAKE...STORDEN AND WESTBROOK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

Quoting 53. georgevandenberghe:



How do you know it was the first?


I assume there were no coconut trees on the island before that hypothetically speaking.
Second round of storms are going up across Nebraska.
Quoting 98. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks like a el nino signature to me.It's gonna be hard to get any storms going down there in the caribbean.Wait until next year WKC.
Tornado potential is very high once again, but we'll see...



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS
THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN ECMWF BLENDED TUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR
WIND. FOR WAVE GUIDANCE USED A BLEND OF NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE HEIGHTS. THE LATEST GFS HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD THE SCENARIO OF LOW PRES FORMING IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS WEEK. CONFIDENCE WILL BE HIGH FOR
THIS FORECAST...EXCEPT MEDIUM WITH POSSIBLE SW CARIBBEAN
TROUGH/WEAK DEVELOPING LATER IN THE WEEK AS MENTIONED BELOW.


A TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA WILL
MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. ITS NORTHERN PORTION WILL PASS ACROSS
THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 72W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU...AND INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FRI. A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MIGHT BE THE
POSSIBLE FEATURE THE GFS HAS BEEN AGGRESSIVELY ADVERTISING THE
PAST FEW DAYS.

PRESENTLY...ACTIVE COLD TOP CONVECTION IS VIVIDLY OBSERVED IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH OR LOW MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS CONVECTION AS FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
107. JRRP
recuerden que todo en la red queda grabado...
luego no me vengan como ahora que estan sorprendidos con el fallido super el nio

yo los voy a dejar quietos a ustedes
It's okay if you all don't want to talk.I'm not wasting my time on here and begging anyone for a conversation.I'll try and get on later when people I talk to are on.
Quoting 94. yonzabam:



Agree, but what's causing it? High SSTs, but failure of tropical storms to develop must mean either higher temperatures than normal in the upper troposphere, or dryer air or SAL.



Last year was an interesting one during the peak Cape Verde period because SAL backed off from the ITCZ but dry stable air anomalies prevented several tropical storms from intensifying in/near the Caribbean (with a few post-season papers/articles discussing the dry air proliferating from South America).  The 2012 season had storms struggling during the peak in the same region but the main issue there was the faster than normal trade wind anomalies with several storms booking along at 20 mph thus preventing much vertical stacking. 

I am anxious to see what this season brings during the peak period and whether we will see the same type of issues this year although an El Nino year, with less storms, gives us a smaller sample group of storms to follow across the Atlantic into the Caribbean.


There seems to be a weak spin-up in progress in that line headed east into Sioux Falls.
You can see an inflow and (what appears to be) a very small debris ball. Sorry about the bad picture (stupid copy and paste!), but you can see an inflow into the southwest side of that blip of pink.

I was listening to Stormscapelive discussing the current conditions across Nebraska. He said the conditions are extreme and similar to the day that produced the El Reno Oklahoma Tornado.
Quoting 67. Grothar:

I'm glad to see everyone in such a good mood today. It really is nice.

So, does anybody think AGW has anything to do with the slow start of the season? :)
carburetor and three..one desk and tubes...there could be nodules with carpet..lint grass.
As to the severe weather issue for Conus and upper mid-west, here is the relative position of the the mid-level jet today right where the SPC moderate risk area is located;
http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_init_00.gif
I'm surprised nobody posted this yet.

PDS tornado watch. 90/80 tornado probabilities.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL IOWA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
AINSWORTH NEBRASKA TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TEKAMAH
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...

DISCUSSION...THE 19Z OMA SOUNDING SAMPLED A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT
WITH 4000 J/KG MLCAPE...60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND 500
EFFECTIVE SRH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG HEATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH A RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.


...MEAD
116. VR46L
Quoting 76. calkevin77:

Anyone excited about the US/Ghana match up tonight?
Keeping it weather related...Its warm in Brazil.


Good Luck, You are gonna need it , least well known US team I have seen in years , But Clint Dempsey was a fine player in the Premiership and your keepers are world class
Also yet to be mentioned, SPC increased the tornado probability in their latest convective outlook.

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...

MOST OF THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN EXTENDED INTO PORTIONS OF W-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IL. REF MCD
1016 FOR MORE DETAILS. ADDITIONALLY...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS PORTION OF NEB/FAR SE SD AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
IA. REF MCD 1015 FOR MORE DETAILS. 19Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM OAX
INDICATES STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH LARGE CYCLONICALLY CURVED
HODOGRAPH AND EXTREME INSTABILITY. WITH THE ADDED FOCUS OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...SEVERAL SIG TORS AND/OR A
VIOLENT TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
AS SUCH...UPGRADE TO 15% SIG
TORNADO PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED.
New cell went severe very quickly. Wouldn't be suprised if it goes tornado warned soon.
The dust forecasts are never wrong... so hopefully the rain forecast will be as reliable this time.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 35 WEST LONGITUDE LATE THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS WAVE WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
Chasers are reporting multiple towers developing off the dryline in Nebraska, south of the severe storm near Norfolk. They mentioned they're organizing by the second.
SPC mentioning the potential for a violent tornado is not good. The trend for the year so far says we'll bust again today, but the potential is there, and I think the SPC upgrade to 15% hatched probabilities is warranted.
Quoting 120. Ameister12:

Chasers are reporting multiple towers developing off the dryline in NE, south of the severe storm near Norfolk.

Reed's take-

Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN · 5m
Supercell near Madison, NE is about to go nuts with strong #tornado potential as it moves northeast
123. Ed22
The area of disturbed weather over the south western caribbean-south, southwest of Jamaica need to be watched throughout this week into the weekend. In jamaica here we could get some squally weather throughout week into the weekend.
124. MAstu
Quoting 120. Ameister12:

Chasers are reporting multiple towers developing off the dryline in Nebraska, south of the severe storm near Norfolk. They mentioned they're organizing by the second.
what's your source?
This is another one of those days where we won't see multiple supercells, but the ones that sustain themselves will be able to put down a violent (EF4 or EF5) tornado. This sounding is ridiculous.

Should see upscale growth into an MCS as the evening fades away.


(Saved for prosperity)
I believe this is our first tornado warned storm of the day, in southwest MN-

Quoting 126. MAweatherboy1:

I believe this is our first tornado warned storm of the day, in southwest MN-



There was another warned storm in Iowa earlier. :p
Quoting 124. MAstu:

what's your source?

StormScapeLive.tv mentioned it in their stream a little bit ago.
Supercell composite of 61 in the 1900z sounding from Omaha, Nebraska. lolololol
Quoting 127. Doppler22:


There was another warned storm in Iowa earlier. :p

Fine, second then. And number three is the big supercell in Nebraska, which may be today's best candidate for a strong tornado.

Edit- And number four is another one along that line extending through southwest MN/northwest IA.
Quoting 121. MAweatherboy1:

SPC mentioning the potential for a violent tornado is not good. The trend for the year so far says we'll bust again today, but the potential is there, and I think the SPC upgrade to 15% hatched probabilities is warranted.

It's looking less likely that today will end up busting (but given it's happened multiple times this year, I'm not ruling it out). Soundings out of eastern Nebraska suggest that any supercell that remains discrete for a while is going to be a tornado producing machine.
Madison, NE cell is really taking off. Should produce a tornado very soon, if it isn't already.
Quoting 119. CaribBoy:

The dust forecasts are never wrong... so hopefully the rain forecast will be as reliable this time.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 35 WEST LONGITUDE LATE THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS WAVE WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
I can only hope so Cariboy because this dust is nasty havent seen it this bad in years really need some rain
#Tornado touching down now just E of Madison, NE!!!!
@reedtimmerTVN

Cell has gone tornado warned
Quoting Doppler22:
#Tornado touching down now just E of Madison, NE!!!!
@reedtimmerTVN


Why won't he let us see his feed!!! I knew he had to have reported it, but he's had his feed off.
Chasers said "Ben" reported a stove pipe on the ground.
Quoting 132. Ameister12:

Madison, NE cell is really taking off. Should produce a tornado very soon if it hasn't already.


It's heading in the general direction of Sioux City, IA, so anyone in that area should be monitoring this and be prepared to take shelter. It may right turn itself a bit south of there but we'll see.
AT 346 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STANTON...OR 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORFOLK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

@DanielShawAU
Significant tornado in progress headed towards Stanton, Nebraska. They need to be underground.

Live on The Weather Channel.
Quoting 125. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is another one of those days where we won't see multiple supercells, but the ones that sustain themselves will be able to put down a violent (EF4 or EF5) tornado. This sounding is ridiculous.

Should see upscale growth into an MCS as the evening fades away.


(Saved for prosperity)


That has got to be one of the most insane soundings I have ever seen.
I've only tracked severe storms for a few years, but I've never seen one take off like this.
143. VR46L
Learn something New every Day .... Sea SAlt Concentration Forecast Europe ,N Africa and Mid East


Velocity on the NE storm. Quite impressive, at least on this radar application. The caption on the pic says it is a mile wide!

Huge wedge tornado in progress just W of Madison, NE!!! @TVNweather
-Reed Timmer
Wow! The Stanton storm turned into a massive tornado in no time. This is really bad.
I couldn't remember Ben's last name (Mcmillan).
Quoting 145. Doppler22:

Huge wedge tornado in progress just W of Madison, NE!!! @TVNweather
-Reed Timmer

And he's not exaggerating that one, from what I've seen on the TWC stream that's exactly what it is.
!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's some vorticity over the southwestern Caribbean at hour 384 on the 12z GFS. Obviously that'll be headed for Florida as a Category 5 Supercane, just in time for the 4th of July.


There you go. It's the same vorticity the GFS has been showing 2 weeks out for the last 4 weeks. As long as the GFS keeps this up, it can't lose. At some point, a low really will form somewhere between Panama and Honduras, and some here can then let us know the GFS was right all along. :-)
Wow! I'm on Ben's feed. That storm is wicked.
Look at this brown, dusty monster.

Tornadoes are not fun...Being in one is not fun.....Been there
Ben McMillan's stream is terrifying. The tornado's a rain wrapped beast.
According to TWC, gate-to-gate is now 163 mph.

There is also a tornado warning in Brown County, IL.
If you're not looking at TWC, look now.
Some pretty good footage.
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:
Another tornado pic.



Check out Ben McMillan's stream for live video of the tornado.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Why won't he let us see his feed!!! I knew he had to have reported it, but he's had his feed off.
Chasers said "Ben" reported a stove pipe on the ground.

He has started doing this lately whenever he feels he has some good video that will be salable later. I think he may also have an exclusive with TWC on some of his feeds when he has an actual storm in view. It's just about business now.
If you're not watching TWC right now, here's Ben's stream.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If you're not looking at TWC, look now.
Some pretty good footage.


That's coming from Ben's feed.
Northwest of Stanton.

Insane TDS north of Stanton.
Looks like there is possibly two tornadoes on the Nebraska storm. Strong circulation NW and East of Stanton
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Tornadoes are not fun...Being in one is not fun.....Been there

Yeah, me too, including one that destroyed my house. All I can think of now when I see these huge tornadoes is who's being injured or killed and how much property is being destroyed. They are still interesting in terms of weather phenomena. I just prefer not to watch one live while it's tearing things up.
Still big tornado on the ground.
Another picture.

Cody beat me to it
Quoting 76. calkevin77:

Anyone excited about the US/Ghana match up tonight?
Keeping it weather related...Its warm in Brazil.

A bit late, had to see the match first, but yes, I'm looking forward to the last match of today.
Ghana has quite a strong team, without a few stars they barely lost to Dutch in a friendly, with their stars they beat South-Korea 4-0.
Some well-known faces from the european leagues in the USA-team, but more from your own league which is getting to higher level last years. Don't know them very well, but I like the way the americans play the game. Hope for you they do well, then they must have a chance against a disappointing Portugal.
Beginning to cycle. Southern rotation will end up becoming the dominant circulation and could end up dropping another huge tornado.
Quoting 169. Ameister12:

Beginning to cycle. Southern rotation will end up becoming the dominant circulation and could end up dropping another huge tornado.


Its even tighter on the newest update. Pilger needs to get in their shelters
Pilger, NE is in huge trouble! The new circulation is becoming just as intense as the old one.
Quoting 169. Ameister12:

Beginning to cycle. Southern rotation will end up becoming the dominant circulation and could end up dropping another huge tornado.



I think Ben McMillan could end up getting caught in by the Southern circulation (he is currently heading due east of 275).
Wow, I remember the El Rino storm had multiple areas of rotation in it as well, this is really a beast storm.
95 degrees.One location is reporting 100.It's suppose to be hotter tomorrow.NOW's the time we need rain to cool us off.Their was a chance of thunderstorms but they will be hit or miss.
Huge TDS heading straight for Pilger, NE. This is not good at all!
Quoting 175. Ameister12:

Huge TDS heading straight for Pilger, NE. This is not good at all!


Duel debris balls, one from the fading northern tornado and now from this new monster one heading for Pilger.
Tornadoraiders just popped up with a good view on the tornado.
The Tornado Raiders now have a good lock on one of the two tornadoes. Worth checking out!
Confirmed tornado with debris about to slam Pilger........
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:
The Tornado Raiders now have a good lock on one of the two tornadoes. Worth checking out!


They're now showing (Tornadoraiders) their feed on TWC.
Wow... TWC stream....
Pilger NE

Ben's got the tornado back too now.

Nebraska MT @tychistormTVN: 2 TORNADOES!!
Ben's feed is insane (on TWC).
Massive pieces of debris on Ben's stream.
This TWC footage is incredible.
why do people continue to drive towards a tornado? WOW!!!
Ben's got a front row seat. What a storm.
looks like two pretty large tornadoes
Two large tornadoes.... Holy....
I've never seen anything like this.
Is there a 3rd one developing?!?!?
Quoting 193. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've never seen anything like this.

I don't know that anything like this has ever happened, two significant tornadoes right next to each other.
Two huge tornadoes right next to each other. I've never seen anything like this! How can they form in such close proximity?
Quoting 189. ncstorm:

why do people continue to drive towards a tornado? WOW!!!
Anything for 15 min-uh seconds of fame -_-.
Im speechless...
3 tornadoes!
Quoting 196. KalainH:

Two huge tornadoes right next to each other. I've never seen anything like this! How can they form in such close proximity?


I'm watching it on TWC. Incredible. I don't think I've ever seen two that big. One is at least a 3.
This is just unreal. Pilger is heavily damaged, it's a small town, very sad to see.
Holy hell.
Twins Basil...Twins!!
This is going to be remembered for a long time.

Picture from @reedtimmerTVN of severe damage near Pilger, NE #newx
Footage from TWC is unbelievable... I'm speechless.
It looks the the two of them are merging.
TWC: "Catastrophic damage in Pilger, NE."
Quoting 206. Doppler22:


Picture from @reedtimmerTVN of severe damage near Pilger, NE #newx
Wow...hopefully everyone got out ok.
Pender and Thurston better watch out
Quoting 209. Thrawst:





It's Mr and Ms tornado
This supercell will be studied by meteorologists for years to come.
Grain bins tossed and flattened like toys, emergency vehicles responding on Ben's feed.
Didn't some of you guys say you wouldn't mind tracking something like this?.

You got your wish.Why are you sad now?.
Two tornadoes colliding into one? What about the Fujiwhara Effect?
Thurston, NE (pop.132) looks to be in for a direct hit. Velocity readings are still gate-to-gate of 115+.


New tornado out in front of the continuing wedge.
The National Weather Service in Omaha has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... southeastern Wayne County in northeast Nebraska... north central Cuming County in northeast Nebraska... northwestern Thurston County in northeast Nebraska...

* until 515 PM CDT

* at 439 PM CDT...a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles north of Wisner...or 27 miles east of Norfolk...moving northeast at 30 mph.

Hazard...damaging tornado and Golf Ball size hail.

Source...weather spotters confirmed tornado.

Impact...flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs...windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* The tornado will be near... Wakefield and Pender around 455 PM CDT. Emerson around 510 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Thurston.

This includes Highway 77 in Nebraska between milemarkers 162 and 167.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

To repeat...a tornado is on the ground. Take cover now! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home...a vehicle or outdoors...move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Lat...Lon 4212 9641 4207 9673 4206 9693 4210 9701 4227 9689 4226 9673 4228 9672 4228 9654 time...Mot...loc 2139z 234deg 27kt 4211 9690

Tornado...observed hail...1.75in

Boustead
New tornado is quickly becoming violent. There's clearly several vortices based on footage from TWC.
Heading home to watch the coverage; a sad end to the day. Let's hope for the best in the coming hours.
Excuse my language, but this is a hell of radar scan to wake up to from a short nap. This is the most crazy radar scan I've seen since El Reno.

I don't even know what's going on anymore, lol. Last I saw, two violent tornadoes merged into one gigantic tornado with another one behind it and now there's a satellite tornado with another funnel cloud behind it.

I need an aspirin.
Quoting 226. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't even know what's going on anymore, lol. Last I saw, two violent tornadoes merged into one gigantic tornado with another one behind it and now there's a satellite tornado with another funnel cloud behind it.

I need an aspirin.



Lol
http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNI DS_map?station=OAX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N 0R&frame=0&scale=0.125&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&ma px=400&mapy=240¢erx=620¢ery=1092&transx=22 0&transy=852&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&ligh tning=Show&smooth=0&rand=23382591&lat=0&lon=0&labe l=you

F3 63 dBZ 47,000 ft. 90 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.25 in. 23 knots WSW (237)

Don't know how much this is trusted, but NEXRAD picked up an F3 vortex signature.
We just lost the feed. Did anyone else?
New cell quickly developing north of Merna, NE. (Central Nebraska)

...and perhaps another SW of Kearney, NE.

Structure damage in Pilger, NE from tornado, via @OWHnews
Sioux City is now in the tornado warning I believe
Wow USA with a quick goal!
Quoting 233. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow USA with a quick goal!

This isn't the right place and time to be posting about sports.
Quoting 228. GTstormChaserCaleb:

http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUN I DS_map?station=OAX&brand=wui&num=6&del ay=15&type=N 0R&frame=0&scale=0.125&noclutter=0& ;showstorms=0&ma px=400&mapy=240¢erx=620¢ery=1092&transx= 22 0&transy=852&showlabels=1&severe=0& ;rainsnow=0&ligh tning=Show&smooth=0&rand=23382591&lat= 0&lon=0&labe l=you

F3 63 dBZ 47,000 ft. 90 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.25 in. 23 knots WSW (237)

Don't know how much this is trusted, but NEXRAD picked up an F3 vortex signature.


That's just a name of storm WU is tracking, not wind measurement.
Quoting 233. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow USA with a quick goal!



Last year when we had the USA word cup wasn't we not allowed two post that stuff on the doc blog has it was off topic

Just saying
Quoting 234. Ameister12:


This isn't the right place and time to be posting about sports.

Maybe he wasn't aware of the situation
Quoting 234. Ameister12:


This isn't the right place and time to be posting about sports.
So wasn't the time when we were storming here on the east coast and people were talking about Ukraine.But of course no one cared.(Shrugs).
Quoting 234. Ameister12:


This isn't the right place and time to be posting about sports.



I 100% ageed on that take the sports stuff elsewhere
It's producing twins again.
I sure hope everyone is out of harms way from those tornadoes, you have very little warning with them and none from earthquakes! Sad!
Quoting 234. Ameister12:


This isn't the right place and time to be posting about sports.
Sorry guys I know the situation with the tornadoes, just thought I would update for those not seeing the game.
Sioux City could be in huge trouble if this sucker decides to organize again.
This is a weather blog not a sport's blog
Is it better to look at from Sioux Falls now or still Omaha?
Prayers go out to ALL in harms way! This is so sad to watch!
Y'all need to learn to ignore posts or be nicer responding.
Quoting 244. Tazmanian:

This is a weather blog not a sport's blog

True, but usually moderators are lenient with what is allowed to be discussed when the weather is quiet.

I agree that this particular moment isn't the right time to be posting given the circumstances, so let's stop pointing that out and just move on.
Quoting 245. Doppler22:

Is it better to look at from Sioux Falls now or still Omaha?

I'd say it's a bit closer to Omaha's radar site.

Sioux City is in a terrible radar spot.
Quoting 248. TropicalAnalystwx13:


True, but usually moderators are lenient with what is allowed to be discussed when the weather is quiet.

I agree that this particular moment isn't the right time to be posting given the circumstances, so let's stop pointing that out and just move on.



Good idea
Quoting 242. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Sorry guys I know the situation with the tornadoes, just thought I would update for those not seeing the game.

It's fine. I'm sorry if I sounded a bit rude, but during a situation like this, it's best to stay on topic.
More storms that need to be watched in central Nebraska.
Is it just me or is this storm "doing a little dance" around Emerson?

RT @Sean_Breslin: Devastation in Pilger, Nebraska. Photographer %u2013 Storm Invictus:
Quoting 251. Ameister12:


It's fine. I'm sorry if I sounded a bit rude, but during a situation like this, it's best to stay on topic.
It's ok, no you didn't sound rude at all, and you are right. Not the place and time for an off topic post like that.
Quoting Doppler22:

RT @Sean_Breslin: Devastation in Pilger, Nebraska. Photographer %u2013 Storm Invictus:


EF-4 damage at the least.
Ninja'd by Logan.

It'll be interesting to go back and see what makes today different than previous events in this area that didn't produce.
Quoting 254. Doppler22:



Very intense damage. Likely at least EF3 .

Thing is with all the violent tornadoes, it's gonna be hard to tell which one did that damage.
Quoting 258. Ameister12:


Very devastating damage. Likely EF3 .

Thing is with all the violent tornadoes, it's gonna be hard to tell which one did that damage.

I'm interested in the comparison. When they figure out Tornado 1 was ___ and Tornado 2 right next to it was ___
Quoting 133. junie1:

I can only hope so Cariboy because this dust is nasty havent seen it this bad in years really need some rain


Yes very nasty, the air quality is terrible... it almost looks like the smog we see in big polluted cities :(







Looks like another sal and shear year for the atlantic and carib....
Looks like the storm is cycling again
Dust please give us a break!

Sorry if this has already been posted...Amazing

Quoting 265. GeoffreyWPB:

Sorry if this has already been posted...Amazing




Holy Mackrel!!! fascinating and scary as hell!
Quoting 265. GeoffreyWPB:

Sorry if this has already been posted...Amazing




TWC is showing video of these twin tornados ..
Quoting 262. rutofthewild:

Looks like another sal and shear year for the atlantic and carib....
Wait until next year...I have little hope for this H-season.Once I saw conditions in August 2013 not tuning out for the better I knew the season was practically over.....

It looks like they are gone for now.It appears the hottest day will be Wednesday with a high of 98 factor in humidity...(Sigh).
Omaha Twister Chaser's chase feed is showing a new lowering near Hubbard, NE.
@TylerJRoney 11m
"Mass casualties" being reported from the Wayne, NE hospital #Prayers


Not necessary deaths, but you still don't want to read that on Twitter.
Quoting 270. Bluestorm5:

@TylerJRoney 11m
"Mass casualties" being reported from the Wayne, NE hospital #Prayers


Not necessary deaths, but you still don't want to read that on Twitter.

Wayne again!? They were hit by an EF4 less than a year ago.
Quoting 271. Ameister12:


Wayne again!? They were hit by an EF4 less than a year ago.


They didn't get hit, but it's just north of where tornadoes went through.
I won't say names, but one of the popular storm chasers said "that northern storm is the sucker storm."
"sucker storm" by the storm that fakes chaser out because it's the first storm to form and everyone goes after it.
So he chose not to go after that storm and it ended up being epic.

I bet he's so mad that he made the decision not to go after that northern storm. But that's chasing.

But I thought it really bad because it called it "the sucker storm" and it was unreal.
Severe storm in Central Nebraska continues to organize. Should go tornadic soon.
Good old days lol

Quoting 276. CaribBoy:

Good old days lol


He never made it to hurricane status xD.
Quoting 277. washingtonian115:

He never made it to hurricane status xD.


Yes, but the forecast track was very exciting lol... and I want to see the same this year. I'm tired with the fish storms and low riders.
Quoting 273. Bluestorm5:



They didn't get hit, but it's just north of where tornadoes went through.


Likely the closest hospital/ER to Pilger.
Storm NE of Broken Bow, NE likely to go tornado warned I believe

Unbelievable ...
Very quiet weather the last several days with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the low 70s and no rain for June 13-16.
North Central Nebraska storm now tornado warned
Quoting 277. washingtonian115:

He never made it to hurricane status xD.
No, but he sure did a lot of damage in Richmond VA -- I was forced to sleep on the floor of my shop in the museum because I couldn't drive home with all the flooding. And downtown really took a hit. From a mere TS/TD!
Mind blowing GIF

Quoting 285. Ameister12:

GIF of the year:


I tried to post that GIF, but it won't work for me either.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHEASTERN LOUP COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 637 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR BURWELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.
CPC is still not bullish on the MJO. From weekly update:

• The amplitude of MJO indices increased during the previous week, however, the lack
of eastward propagation indicates that subseasonal factors other than a coherent
MJO are driving the pattern of anomalous tropical convection.

• There is considerable spread among dynamical MJO index model forecasts, with
some showing a weakening MJO signal while others shift the signal rapidly to the
western Pacific. Statistical models favor an eastward propagation more consistent
with MJO activity.

• Based on recent observations and the high uncertainty illustrating by the dynamical
model forecasts, the MJO is forecast to remain generally weak while other types of
tropical variability including conditions favoring enhanced convection over the
central Pacific strongly influence the pattern.

• The MJO may contribute some to enhanced rainfall across parts of southeast Asia,
the Maritime Continent, and the far western Pacific during the upcoming week.

The last bullet point is a bit confusing. (They did something similar last week saying no MJO but MJO could contribute to TC development in Arabian Sea.) Are they saying what looks like an MJO (but seems really not to be) may enhance rainfall over Maritime Continent and far western Pacific?
Quoting Bluestorm5:
@TylerJRoney 11m
"Mass casualties" being reported from the Wayne, NE hospital #Prayers


Not necessary deaths, but you still don't want to read that on Twitter.

Who is Tyler Roney?
Stormscapelive just got a good view at a very large tornado on the cell near Burwell in central Nebraska.
291. DDR
Quoting CaribBoy:
Dust please give us a break!


Hey Caribboy,looks like you'll get a decent shot at some showers that wave is actually gaining latititude with moisture:)
Stormscapelive
Large wall cloud with a cone funnel dropping down now.
Quoting Ameister12:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
SOUTHEASTERN LOUP COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 637 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR BURWELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

Tornado emergency.
Quoting 292. Sfloridacat5:

Stormscapelive
Large wall cloud with a cone funnel dropping down now.


Link
295. JRRP
USA win... lol what a game
Close-up view of the Pilger tornado. That's a lot of debris. :-(
For anyone in the DMV area..


Jeff-CapitalWeatherGang
7:43 PM EDT [Edited]
Loudon CO warned cell may have a history of hail, given that it's got 65 dBZ reflectivity. Damascus cell is moving a lot faster than the mean flow, and to the right of that flow (the mean flow is from the west at about 20-25 knots). Loudon CO cell is booking along from due west. Bay breeze front pushing west across MOCO - will collide w/ these two cells.

Quoting 284. CaneFreeCR:

No, but he sure did a lot of damage in Richmond VA -- I was forced to sleep on the floor of my shop in the museum because I couldn't drive home with all the flooding. And downtown really took a hit. From a mere TS/TD!
Your referring to Gaston in 04.I'm referring to the one in 2010 that sputtered out back into a T.D out in the eastern Atlantic.
Quoting Ameister12:
Close-up view of the Pilger tornado. That's a lot of debris. :-(

Saw a picture on twitter of a house obliterated with nearby trees debarked. EF4...5?
Was it a tornado emergency or a PDS warning for Burwell? I've seen both
Tragic damage pictures coming in.

Home SE of Wayne, NE. There's nothing left.

(Is this the picture you're talking about, Cody?)

Pilger Middle School.
At least two tornadoes cut across an area east of Norfolk on Monday, devastating the town of Pilger, killing at least one person and leaving 16 others with critical injuries, an official at Faith Regional Medical Center in Norfolk told the Journal Star.

Live footage from the area Monday afternoon showed the funnels barreling east as storm chasers followed.

The first reports of damage came about 4 p.m. from near Stanton. A short time later, Pilger — a town of about 350 people, 20 miles east of Norfolk on U.S. 275 — took a direct hit.

“I’m standing in Pilger, and I see devastation,” said Stanton County Commissioner Jerry Weatherholt. “It looks like a war zone. It absolutely looks like a war zone.”

The south half of the town is leveled, he said, but almost all of it is damaged. The Farmer’s Co-Op was destroyed, and officials were moving people away from that area because of gas and propane leaks.

By 6 p.m., the town was full of ambulances and fire trucks from across the region. Weatherholt saw medics loading people in ambulances.
The Burwell cell is likely going to be around for a while.

Quoting Ameister12:
Tragic damage pictures coming in.

Home SE of Wayne, NE. There's nothing left.

(Is this the picture you're talking about, Cody?)

Pilger Middle School.

Yes.
Quoting 303. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes.

If that home turns out to be well built, then it's at least high end EF4 damage.
Flooding is another big threat this evening. Looks like the record on this river fell easily.

reports of 1 fatality and 16 critical injury's in Pilger, Ne ..
Realizing all the attention is on Nebraska--and justifiably so--I thought I'd share this image of the nice sunset-tinged mammatus over SW Florida right now:

SPC really nailed it today. They put the 15% area in the perfect location.
StormScapeLIVE.TV has a tornado on their stream.

Edit: It's completely rain wrapped right now.
Central Nebraska cell has an incredible mothership structure.

Tornado's becoming visible again (via TWC). Gorgeous rope!
Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman declares emergency after tornadoes cause severe damage in Stanton County - @kmtv3weather
Link
Amazing footage of the tornado(es) going through Pilger and afterwards
Quoting 312. Doppler22:

Link
Amazing footage of the tornado(es) going through Pilger and afterwards

That tornado was absurdly violent. It looks like it picked up an entire house at :48.
About to get really active.
whats happened since i left 3 hours ago?
stormscapelive.tv is in a great spot on TVN
Quoting 108. Grothar:




Interesting...
Quoting 315. JrWeathermanFL:

whats happened since i left 3 hours ago?



Read back in the blog and you find out
320. flsky
Horrifying
Quoting 312. Doppler22:

Link
Amazing footage of the tornado(es) going through Pilger and afterwards
321. flsky
Where's the rope - I don't see it?
Quoting 310. Ameister12:

Central Nebraska cell has an incredible mothership structure.

Tornado's becoming visible again (via TWC). Gorgeous rope!
More incredible tornado footage, but this guy got stupidly close.


Damage from tornado. MT Sandahl Farms, 10 miles east of Wayne, Nebraska.
Quoting 321. flsky:

Where's the rope - I don't see it?


It was completely rain wrapped at that point.
Quoting 312. Doppler22:

Link
Amazing footage of the tornado(es) going through Pilger and afterwards


Wow. Look at the grain elevator located to the left of the watertower fall into the tornado at :15. This is most likely going to be a storm I will remember for a very long time.
Quoting 322. Ameister12:

More incredible tornado footage.



Why would you get that close to a large tornado. The occupant(s) of the white car had a death wish.
The mangled remains of a car near Stanton, NE.
Quoting 326. KalainH:



Why would you get that close to a large tornado. The occupant(s) of the white car had a death wish.

Despite what happened on May 31, 2013, chasers still aren't learning and continue to get way to close to tornadoes and act completely reckless.
Reed's got some insane photos on instagram of the tornadoes.
Quoting Ameister12:
More incredible tornado footage.

In addition to the multiple funnels on the ground at the same time within a few miles of each other (something I've never seen before), the next most amazing thing is that no chasers have been killed or seriously injured...yet. They keep getting closer and closer, hoping for that one great shot. A little closer to all that flying debris and the end of the video would have been much different.
Quoting 322. Ameister12:

More incredible tornado footage, but this guy got stupidly close.



This is nonetheless great footage, but I would've hung back a wee bit more. I was kinda expecting for a little bit that they were gonna intercept.

I mean haven't we learned from the movie Twister not to drive to close to one of those?? lol
Rats. Double post.
Quoting 330. sar2401:


In addition to the multiple funnels on the ground at the same time with a few miles of each other (something I've never seen before), the next most amazing thing is that no chasers have been killed or seriously injured...yet. They keep getting closer and closer, hoping for that one great shot. A little closer to all that flying debris and the end of the video would have been much different.

It's beyond frustrating at this point.
Quoting Ameister12:
The mangled remains of a car near Stanton, NE.

I hope that car wasn't occupied when it got hit. :-(
Quoting CaribBoy:


Yes, but the forecast track was very exciting lol... and I want to see the same this year. I'm tired with the fish storms and low riders.


Gaston caused tremendous damage in the Richmond area from rain, over 10" in a six hour period.
Quoting sar2401:

There you go. It's the same vorticity the GFS has been showing 2 weeks out for the last 4 weeks. As long as the GFS keeps this up, it can't lose. At some point, a low really will form somewhere between Panama and Honduras, and some here can then let us know the GFS was right all along. :-)


And I keep saying, even a broken clock is right twice a day
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Reed's got some insane photos on instagram of the tornadoes.

Where was the Dominator at through all this? It seems like this kind of storm is what the tornado tanks were made for. Of course, if it were me, I think I would have waited for a nice F0 to intercept instead of any of the monsters we saw today. A tornado tank is one thing, but I don't think an M1A1 Abrahms would have been able to survive those storms today.
NWSDesMoines 8:25 PM 6/16: 70 mph winds measured at #Waterloo Airport. Seek shelter now if in northern Black Hawk county!
Quoting Ameister12:

It's beyond frustrating at this point.

At least the storms so far today have occurred in one of the most lightly populated sections of Nebraska, and there were lots of cross roads for escape routes. Imagine those hundreds of chasers in some place like Omaha when it gets hit by multiple funnels in a few minute period. It's bound to happen one day.
The severe storm that produced a large tornado out in central Nebraska an hour or so ago is likely going to go right over the areas hit hardest earlier today. Luckily, the rotation on it weakened significantly and it is no longer tornado warned, but it is still easily severe. Hopefully the rotation doesn't come back.
Hmm nice storms on Cayman Radar

Quoting 341. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm nice storms on Cayman Radar



Warning area are marked
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


And I keep saying, even a broken clock is right twice a day

It's kind of sad. This is the type of loop that brings tears to the eyes of those awaiting the low that is supposed to be in the SW Caribbean...tomorrow.

Quoting 334. sar2401:


I hope that car wasn't occupied when it got hit. :-(

Bart Comstock:
"Way late to the show. Heading to intercept storm by Bartlet, NE. Drove through the damage as seen here. This was a 91 Chevy truck. Inside is the motor of a Polaris quad and part of a new Nissan. Police are looking for the occupants now. Nearby house is a clean slab."
There was only one impressive supercell today, but what an impressive supercell it was. The only other time I can remember a single supercell producing multiple simultaneous* wedge tornadoes is in association with the Palm Sunday tornado on April 11, 1965.

* Edited
Quoting 340. MAweatherboy1:

The severe storm that produced a large tornado out in central Nebraska an hour or so ago is likely going to go right over the areas hit hardest earlier today. Luckily, the rotation on it weakened significantly and it is no longer tornado warned, but it is still easily severe. Hopefully the rotation doesn't come back.

Looks like it's turned into a small bowing segment.

"El Nino is %u2018already here%u2019
"
Australian climatologist claims the weather is already in the grip of the phenomenon."

Link
Important news tonight on the ENSO front that is good for El Nino prospects.Go to my ENSO Blog to see what it is.
well make that three weeks of complaining about the GFS..

Convection decrease due to D-Min in afternoon/night
Convection increases due to D-Max in night/morning
351. txjac
The Daily Mail has some pretty good pictures of the tornadoes as well ...

Link

Tornado terror as two massive 200MPH storms LEVEL Nebraska town with more terrifying twisters on the way

Quoting Ameister12:
More incredible tornado footage, but this guy got stupidly close.


I will never understand why people keep driving when it is RIGHT IN FRONT OF THEM. What do they think it's some kind of mirage?!
Hopefully this weakens by the time it gets to Chicago.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 308
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MADISON WISCONSIN TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARSEILLES ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

Link
Sometimes people get "too close to a tornado" because they live there, you know, in its path. They go to work. They come home. They hang out with their friends. They raise children...
Quoting Daily Mail:
Tornado terror as two massive 200MPH storms LEVEL Nebraska town with more terrifying twisters on the way

They win the prize for worst alliteration of the day.
Interesting looking little area about 6 N - 44 W, seems to be trying to get some convection going and develop a little spin, though just barely, and it will probably dissipate quickly, but it looks to be just South of the heavy-duty shear and could survive.
Good evening everyone

I've said it many times to my "non-wunderground-friends" and I'll say it again....you guys amaze me with your up-to-date coverage on weather.

My heart breaks for those affected by tonight's storms and those yet to face what tonight brings.

Lindy
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER TC HAGIBIS (T1407)
9:00 AM JST June 17 2014
==============================

East China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Hagibis (1000 hPa) located at 28.0N 123.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots.. The depression is reported as moving east northeast at 15 knots..
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Convection decrease due to D-Min in afternoon/night
Convection increases due to D-Max in night/morning


You mean like this DMax at 1200 UTC June 16?



Compared to this DMin at 2100 UTC June 16?

Wow! just getting a wild thunder/lightning storm here!



Doesn't look like much on sat img... but woke me up!

Wow! almost lost power with that strike!

Now [11:20] it's pouring.... didn't even realize it was raining before!
Sure hope the power stays on..
Quoting 353. wxgeek723:



I will never understand why people keep driving when it is RIGHT IN FRONT OF THEM. What do they think it's some kind of mirage?!

Because YOLO.
Quoting 363. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Because YOLO.


That acronym needs to ******* die.
365. txjac
Quoting 362. BahaHurican:

Wow! almost lost power with that strike!

Now [11:20] it's pouring.... didn't even realize it was raining before!
Sure hope the power stays on..


Hope the power stays on for you ...
Wish I had a storm like that over me right now ...even losing power ...nothing better than being in bed with it all dark and having lightening ...enjoy your evening
Quoting 364. KoritheMan:



That acronym needs to ******* die.

U mad bro? ;)
Woof.
Quoting 362. BahaHurican:

Wow! almost lost power with that strike!

Now [11:20] it's pouring.... didn't even realize it was raining before!
Sure hope the power stays on..


Hit me too. A few solid strikes.
Quoting 366. TropicalAnalystwx13:


U mad bro? ;)


It's impossible for a 16 year old to piss me off.
Upper wind forecasts from previous GFS model runs NOT panning out...now I've abandoned the idea of development on my latest blog post...
Quoting 365. txjac:



Hope the power stays on for you ...
Wish I had a storm like that over me right now ...even losing power ...nothing better than being in bed with it all dark and having lightening ...enjoy your evening
It's all done now... but I admit that was very cool indeed... and the power never quite went out so that was good...

Now back to bed... lol..
Quoting 370. NCHurricane2009:

Upper wind forecasts from previous GFS model runs NOT panning out...now I've abandoned the idea of development on my latest blog post...
Still watching this ULL area to our east...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because YOLO.


More like YOL for a few more minutes.
Almost looks like a hurricane symbol moving across southern Wisconsin. Where's WIBadgerWeather?!

375. emguy
Quoting 374. wxgeek723:
Almost looks like a hurricane symbol moving across southern Wisconsin. Where's WIBadgerWeather?!



It looks like straight line winds will rule the rest of the evening across Wisc into Illinois. Not sure I see the hurricane symbol, but there is a shifting of the winds where the tornado warning is at. I would anticipate warning is issued for a simple reason...this is likely where there is a chance for a quick unexpected short lived spinup. It's definately not super cellular, but definately part of an organized line. So if in the pat, be careful. One of these came through here in KC very early on Sunday morning....like 4:30 ish. Was dissapointed...but not by the storm...I saw power flashes and a lot of wind. Was dissapointed because it knocked the crown out of my maple tree.
Quoting 374. wxgeek723:

Almost looks like a hurricane symbol moving across southern Wisconsin. Where's WIBadgerWeather?!




Asleep, until the tornado sirens sounded about 10 minutes ago.


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
DANE COUNTY...

AT 1203 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR VERONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MADISON AROUND 1210 AM CDT.
FITCHBURG...OREGON...MCFARLAND AND MONONA AROUND 1215 AM CDT.

We are in Stoughton, just on the southern edge of the polygon (or, you could say, in the "eye"). The rotation broadened out, however, and the warning was dropped. Anyways, the tornado warning was right in the center of the "hurricane signature". Thanks for your concern :)
NBC 15 in Madison lost power live on air. They are in the new tornado warning (until 12:45 CDT), but I would suspect lightning is the culprit.
Bob Lesh @Bob_Lesh · 2m
Police are now reporting a tornado touchdown in west Madison. This is the cell that is currently warned. #wiwx
Quoting 379. wxgeek723:

Bob Lesh @Bob_Lesh 2m
Police are now reporting a tornado touchdown in west Madison. This is the cell that is currently warned. #wiwx


Bob Lindmeier (the Jim Cantore of Madison!) is reporting a roof torn off of a house in Shorewood Hills. There are some big McMansions up there in Shorewood.
I think this image tells the story well.

We will see what storm surveys find today and tomorrow.


Dave Wilcox
‏@DaveWilcoxUW

Dane Cty dispatch chatter of damage on Cross Country Circle in Verona; also significant damage to school in area (Country View Elementary?)

This is where a tornado warned storm passed over about an hour ago.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think this image tells the story well.

We will see what storm surveys find today and tomorrow.



WOW


Imagine driving down that road.
Just North of Madison, Wi here. Radar was clear as day, broad circulation tightened into a gorgeous hook echo and dropped two tornadoes in Madison. Short lived in nature and quickly lifted. First tornadoes of the year here. Our third latest for a tornado in the season. One EFO likely, a rain rapped on Fitch Hatchery and PD, the other likely low end EF-1 that blew off roof and windows. We may be approaching 7 plus inches by the end of the week. Going to be a big problem.
Quoting 353. wxgeek723:



I will never understand why people keep driving when it is RIGHT IN FRONT OF THEM. What do they think it's some kind of mirage?!
man that was crazy that white car was like oh well its just a dark cloud! WTH! thats a tornado! hes lucky that the car wasnt thrown around! Wow awesome video though!
If anyone wants to read this, I just wrote a late-night muse about my personal life and affairs. It's not long.

Link
Hey all, my thoughts and prayers go out to all that have been affected by the terrible twins and all the other tornadoes. Last I heard was 16 people killed. I hope it's wrong and that people were able to get to a safe place.

My cousin in Scotland sent me some photos. I will try to upload them later.
388. MahFL
Quoting 345. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There was only one impressive supercell today


Wrong, there were two tornado producing supercell's.
389. MahFL
Quoting 353. wxgeek723:



I will never understand why people keep driving when it is RIGHT IN FRONT OF THEM. What do they think it's some kind of mirage?!


They want to get the ultimate close up pic, and somehow believe they won't be killed.
Flashback to yesterday afternoon

I posted that the "second round of storms were starting to fire." (South of Norfork Nebraska)


Storm went Severe Thunderstorm Warned



Storm goes tornado warned with tornado reported on the ground by several spotters


After that I was too involved in watching the live feed of Ben McMillan (twin tornadoes) and others and stopped posting.
Good morning.

It looks like the eastward propagation by the MJO will not occur in the coming days.

MJO update
nhc is down again? at least the superjam from bonnarro has been posted. http://www.jambase.com/Articles/121948/Audio-Derek -Trucks-Bonnaroo-Superjam

Still rewriting the record books at Sioux Falls -
POR back to 1890, so this is a significant record.
TOTAL FOR MONTH: 12.97 inches

THIS IS ALSO THE WETTEST MONTH ON RECORD
BEATING 9.42 INCHES SET IN MAY OF 1898.



Link
No tropical storm formation expected through september 25th due to high shear el nino and sal
The afternoon boomers continue in FL. Most of the rain the next week is in the north.

Next week looks hot for the Southeast.

We'll have to see if the SPC ups the chance of severe weather for later today.

The evenings Cape forecast
If you want to watch the complete chase of the twin tornadoes yesterday.
Ben's full video.
http://www.iowachase.com/live/
I think this year is looking like a vary warm neutral two a weak two mod El Nino
hard to make up my own tropical update if there is no access to nhc
nws melb. say wed. thurs going to be rainy WED-THU...THE RATHER PROMINENT UPR DISTURBANCE WL CREATE A
VERTICAL DISRUPTION IN THE SUBTROPICAL SFC RIDGE NEAR THE AREA AND
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING RAIN CHCS.
Quoting 396. StormWx:

Next week looks hot for the Southeast.



That doesn't necessarily mean it will be hot. Nor does it necessarily mean it'll be warm. That just means there is a certain percentage that those areas shaded in the warmer colors (oranges and red) are likely to see temperatures above their seasonal averages for the time frame given. You post those maps all the time, thought I'd help you a little bit by showing you how to read them. :-)

Alyssa
OMG. GORGEOUS out right now down at Clearwater Beach, Florida. SO...........School is out and summer is HERE!! Time to party and have some fun. Not now of course....it's 7:27 in the morning. LOL. But you know, maybe later, this weekend. That's when the fun will begin. But who says you can't have fun dipping you toes in the white sand on the beaches here or taking a nice walk watching the birds. ;-)

Alyssa
Good Morning. Here is today's Aussie Enso forecast; the atmosphere has not responded yet and a slight leveling off; however, it is "primed" which means it could cross-over the threshold over the next several weeks:

Pacific Ocean remains primed for an El Nino in 2014
Issued on Tuesday 17 June 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months has primed the climate system for an El Nino in 2014. However, in the absence of the necessary atmospheric response, warming has levelled off in recent weeks. Positive Southern Oscillation Index values and large areas of warm water in the western Pacific and off northwestern Australia are also counter to typical El Nino development.

Despite recent observations and some easing in the model outlooks, climate models surveyed by the Bureau still indicate El Nino is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Nino ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Nino developing in 2014.

Weekly sea surface temperatures

Warm SST anomalies are in place across the entire tropical Pacific Ocean, though a slight cooling has occurred in the central areas over the past fortnight. Positive anomalies remain evident across large areas north of the equator in both the East China Sea in the west and along the North American coastline in the east (see SST anomaly map for the week ending 15 June). Warm anomalies also extend into the Indian Ocean.
While the warm tongue of water extending along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific is typical of an emerging El Nino, the warm anomalies in the western Pacific mean the west to east gradient of temperature anomalies is not yet typical of an El Nino, and hence may be limiting the response in the tropical atmosphere.
Link

Quoting rutofthewild:
No tropical storm formation expected through september 25th due to high shear el nino and sal
Whew! That's a relief. Thanks for that. :)
Quoting 400. islander101010:

hard to make up my own tropical update if there is no access to nhc



Nhc site works fine for me
Hey Guys, just wanted to point out the Nino 3.4 region is now below 0.4C and continuing to fall. I havent seen StormTrackerScott on in a while but i was wondering if he had any change to his super/strong El Nino forecast. Seems as though its not going to pan out and we are still a ways away from an El Nino. I think he was calling for El Nino in May/June and we are almost to July and it hasnt happened yet. Hey Ric, still got that crow shop open? :o)


Quoting 407. StormWx:

Hey Guys, just wanted to point out the Nino 3.4 region is now below 0.4C and continuing to fall. I havent seen StormTrackerScott on in a while but i was wondering if he had any change to his super/strong El Nino forecast. Seems as though its not going to pan out and we are still a ways away from an El Nino. I think he was calling for El Nino in May/June and we are almost to July and it hasnt happened yet. Hey Ric, still got that crow shop open? :o)






You two need two put on fork in it all read enough with the drama all ready I wish the mods would take care of the drama once and for all there no need for it you need two put Scott on the ignore list or Scott needs two put you but either way stop with the drama all ready the you been given a lot of warnings like I said am not sure why the mods are allowin this two keep going on
The model projections for El - Nino and tropical storm formation are only as good as the information that is programed into them. If this trend continues with future models it only shows what little we really know about this part of our weather.
oh- looks like Natalie/Dewayne is back. Thank goodness it only took less than ten posts- no need to waste my time here, then.

(rolls eyes)
Has anyone else noticed NHC sites and some from NOAA have been down intermittently the past few days?
On the ENSO issue, it will be very interesting to see (with the current 70% chance) if the threshold is actually crossed by the time that we get to the August/September Atlantic peak period.  If it does not for some reason, then this will be the third straight year in a row with Neutral conditions for the Atlantic which would be a bit of an anomaly from the past few decades.
Quoting 390. Sfloridacat5:

Flashback to yesterday afternoon

I posted that the "second round of storms were starting to fire." (South of Norfork Nebraska)


Storm went Severe Thunderstorm Warned



Storm goes tornado warned with tornado reported on the ground by several spotters


After that I was too involved in watching the live feed of Ben McMillan (twin tornadoes) and others and stopped posting.
yeah that tornado destroyed half a town and among others it killed a 5 year old kid..
Quoting RCThunder:
Has anyone else noticed NHC sites and some from NOAA have been down intermittently the past few days?


Yes. I've been having this same problem.
Quoting 400. islander101010:

hard to make up my own tropical update if there is no access to nhc

Taz, can you help out Islander? You're an expert in these things.
Quoting 418. CybrTeddy:



Yes. I've been having this same problem.
same here get the message page cannot be displayed...works sometimes, sometimes I cant get in
I hope EL NINO won't be declared before december. It's not a problem if we get EL NINO conditions during the dry boring season...
422. FOREX
The small tropical wave approaching South America doesn't seem to be getting any attention. Are there atmospheric reasons why? Thanks.
Quoting 422. FOREX:

The small tropical wave approaching South America doesn't seem to be getting any attention. Are there atmospheric reasons why? Thanks.


good question just noticed it on vis..sat
Here is blurb from one of the research papers from 2003 (link below) on how Enso conditions are classified for any given year.  An interesting paper as the authors (from the FSU Met Program) are suggesting a possible alternate time-table.   While 1992 (Hurricane Andrew) was classified under the regular regime as an El Nino year, the authors suggest, under Bove, that it was actually an enso neutral year:

ENSO Impact on Hurricane Landfall Probabilities for the Caribbean
CARISSA A. TARTAGLIONE, SHAWN R. SMITH, AND JAMES J. O’BRIEN
Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida
(Manuscript received 12 June 2002, in final form 3 March 2003)

An ENSO year is typically defined using the JMA index as the period from October in the year that the warm (or cold) phase develops until the following September (Table 1). This definition is designed to capture the peak of an ENSO event in the boreal winter. Since the hurricane season runs from June through November, the typical ENSO year definition would split a hurricane season across two different ENSO years. Rather than
classifying hurricane seasons using the standard ENSO definition, the authors first follow Bove et al. (1998) and classify hurricane seasons according to the onset year in which the cold, warm, or neutral phase begins. For example, the 1992 hurricane season spans the end of the 1991 warm ENSO year for June–September and the onset of the 1992 neutral ENSO year for October and November. Using the method of Bove et al. (1998), the 1992 season would be classified as a neutral hurricane season. Based on this method, the ENSO classification for each hurricane season from 1900 to 1998 is found in Table 1.


A real good read regardless as to the climatology:
Link
FOREX,there was actually a year where the first named storm for the season was formed near the same location it was named TS ana


Quoting 422. FOREX:

The small tropical wave approaching South America doesn't seem to be getting any attention. Are there atmospheric reasons why? Thanks.


Well, it's too far south to become a tropical storm.
Quoting 422. FOREX:

The small tropical wave approaching South America doesn't seem to be getting any attention. Are there atmospheric reasons why? Thanks.

It's been aided by some decent upper divergence and probably the diurnal convective maximum as well. Very little vortictity with it though, and regardless It awaits the same fate as anything that has tried to enter the Caribbean recently.

Quoting 419. Llamaluvr:


Taz, can you help out Islander? You're an expert in these things.



And do what leve me alone with your nonsense post
scott must of got on the wrong boat. certainly did for this el nino
This year will be a vary warm neutral
Uh YUM! Just finished this AMAZING breakfast right as some right as some waves began to pick up. So much for my pictures I drew in the sand with my toes! UGH!!!! What an incredible morning here. Folks up north where I grew up in Southern Illinois always complain that Florida is so YUCK in the summer...but I have too BIG TIME disagree. I actually cannot see myself going wrong with this...all summer. :) Even my big sister (who is ALWAYS in a good mood and so yipper chipper all the time) who farms and is out in the heat and fields all day in Cypress Illinois gets irritated by the heat.... But not me. Especially when you got a nice ocean breeze coming in. Ahhhhhh..... :-)

Alyssa

Quoting 431. Tazmanian:

This year will be a vary warm neutral

Right on. I think that is a good prediction. It'll definitely defiant from last year but will not go full blown El Nino just yet....
well it's 5 day model time and then a look at el nino
OH MY FREAKING GOD!!!!!! CMC has got one.....oh wait...it's Douglas in the Pacific...it doesn't count :-)


Quoting ricderr:
well it's 5 day model time and then a look at el nino


Mornin' Ric, anything showing up on the long range models? Just curious. Seasons a bust? lol j/k.
Quoting 435. ricderr:

OH MY FREAKING GOD!!!!!! CMC has got one.....oh wait...it's Douglas in the Pacific...it doesn't count :-)




EPAC storms don't do it for me. They just don't. And I'm being serious. And no, it's not because I want destruction either, guys. :-)
ECMWF sees dougie but it's not near as optimistic


gfs aint seeing much at all







navgem sees infant doug and nothing else

442. JRRP

Quoting StormWx:
Hey Guys, just wanted to point out the Nino 3.4 region is now below 0.4C and continuing to fall. I havent seen StormTrackerScott on in a while but i was wondering if he had any change to his super/strong El Nino forecast. Seems as though its not going to pan out and we are still a ways away from an El Nino. I think he was calling for El Nino in May/June and we are almost to July and it hasnt happened yet. Hey Ric, still got that crow shop open? :o)



StormWx,

Cherry-picking your data again? Tsk. Tsk. Reality is not well represented by that last little squiggle in the chart you presented. Try the grown up approach:

Ausralia's Bureau of Meteorlogy: Pacific Ocean remains primed for an El Niño in 2014

And NOAA/NWS's latest El Nino summary pegs a fall/winter El Nino event as an 80% probability.
Quoting 441. ricderr:





navgem sees infant doug and nothing else




Reminds me of 70s parties.
Mornin' Ric, anything showing up on the long range models? Just curious. Seasons a bust? lol j/k.


morning stormy....hell..if long range models were to be trusted you would be waiting on your 5th named storm to batter florida........houston would have already been hit and nola would have had catrina part deaux...i just post em 5 days out and leave the rest to our blogging professionals....cough cough cough
Reminds me of 70s parties.

LMAO....i have no.....clue as to what you're talking about


StormWx,

Cherry-picking your data again? Tsk. Tsk. Reality is not well represented by that last little squiggle in the chart you presented. Try the grown up approach:





hmmm....those that come on here and cherry pick the data for a super el nino are they not just as guilty?....i believe stormy's point is not that it won't happen...but that it is not a certainty or immediacy as some have recently portrayed here
Quoting 411. Tazmanian:




You two need two put on fork in it all read enough with the drama all ready I wish the mods would take care of the drama once and for all there no need for it you need two put Scott on the ignore list or Scott needs two put you but either way stop with the drama all ready the you been given a lot of warnings like I said am not sure why the mods are allowin this two keep going on


You can ignore the drama, as well. Then you no longer have to worry about it and life will be wonderful.
EPAC storms don't do it for me. They just don't. And I'm being serious. And no, it's not because I want destruction either, guys. :-)


it's the only chance i have for extra moisture......
well...let's look at el nino as our fellow blogger ray has already given the link to today's latest update by our downsouth aussie friends.......here it is

there's one major wording difference in this update than last....last they were hinting at an august event...which mathematically is still a good possibility....however now the aussie mets are saying by their spring...our fall
Quoting 449. ricderr:

EPAC storms don't do it for me. They just don't. And I'm being serious. And no, it's not because I want destruction either, guys. :-)


it's the only chance i have for extra moisture......

DING DING DING. Come on down and grab your prize!!!!
Quoting 448. FBMinFL:



You can ignore the drama, as well. Then you no longer have to worry about it and life will be wonderful.

yes
yes it will
Quoting 448. FBMinFL:



You can ignore the drama, as well. Then you no longer have to worry about it and life will be wonderful.


The ignore list is use less on here with the quote
considering the sea surface temps.....we track those daily (much to the chagrin of some)....weekly...and monthly...so there's not much new they can give on that scene...ENSO 3.4....which is where we look to tell us if we are in el nino conditions....is at 0.4....and yes...this week it's trending lower as stated by stormy
StormWx and ricderr, you are both annoying and obnoxious and are not an asset to this blog
when we look at the sub sea surface temps...that kelvin weave is still there...the aussies tell us at its warmest it's at 5C's above average at 50 meters....now don't jump on the hype bandwagon and say darn...that means a super duper el nino.....because as it rises so also rises the ocean temp and then the anomaly is quite less....but what we do have...is a warm pool rising instead of a cool pool rising which means the water should heat up.....
StormWx and ricderr, you are both annoying and obnoxious and are not an asset to this blog



why thank you....with just 23 comments in 8 years i got one of them...i feel honored
Quoting 456. crankin:

StormWx and ricderr, you are both annoying and obnoxious and are not an asset to this blog


Do not let them get you down Ricderr, most of us think you rock!
Quoting ricderr:
StormWx,

Cherry-picking your data again? Tsk. Tsk. Reality is not well represented by that last little squiggle in the chart you presented. Try the grown up approach:





hmmm....those that come on here and cherry pick the data for a super el nino are they not just as guilty?....i believe stormy's point is not that it won't happen...but that it is not a certainty or immediacy as some have recently portrayed here


I simply showed the 3.4 region, the main El Nino region. Def not cherry picking, just showing the region has dropped from above 0.5C. Some peeps really get emotional over some simple charts. Dont get it. Oh well.

Quoting ricderr:

hmmm....those that come on here and cherry pick the data for a super el nino are they not just as guilty?....

In my estimation no. Several elements contribute to this view. The first is that we're due. From '82 to '97 was 15 years. From 97' to '14 is 17 years.

Second, the April subsurface temps in Nino 3.4 were chart-busters on the high side. That body of warm water did migrate to Nino 1 & 2 by May.

Three, the Pacific Ocean continues to absorb the excess heat being generated by climate change.

Four, trade winds remain erratic.

As to the ultimate strength of the El Nino, I remain agnostic. But considering the remarkable pace of record setting regarding heat. fire, precipitation and flooding across the planet recently, it would be more odd to have a weak El Nino than to have one with unusually strong characteristics due to our evolving climate regime.

Finally, I would argue that 10 days ago StormWx or another poster published that same Nino 3.4 chart showing a dramatic drop in SSTs. And immediately called for an end to El Nino. Of course the chart was corrected and the purported radical temperature drop was a measurement error. Seeing this navel-gazing once again, after it was demonstrated to be foolish over-interpretation and blind cherry-picking just kind of ticked me off.
ok...thanx to those that like me and oh well to those that don't...i want to talk about el nino

SOI keeps giving the experts fits.......it should be in the negative numbers considering the conditions we are in but instead is in the positives at above 10 which usually would signal we are in a la nina event

Quoting rayduray2013:

Finally, I would argue that 10 days ago StormWx or another poster published that same Nino 3.4 chart showing a dramatic drop in SSTs. And immediately called for an end to El Nino. Of course the chart was corrected and the purported radical temperature drop was a measurement error. Seeing this navel-gazing once again, after it was demonstrated to be foolish over-interpretation and blind cherry-picking just kind of ticked me off.


Please re-post when i said that. You cant because i didnt lol. I simply said the early calls for El Nino are pre-mature, and i am correct on that. I said i stand by my forecast of the August/September timeframe for a weak El Nino. BaDa Bing!
Good rain moving in to SE FL now
Gee, where the wunderground go?

LoL

Quoting ricderr:
.ENSO 3.4....which is where we look to tell us if we are in el nino conditions....
That's not quite right, ric.

If the temperature in Nino 3.4 is elevated above Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 then we have an El Nino Modoki. The key areas for a classic El Nino are the SSTs in Nino 1,2 & 3.


Quoting 454. Tazmanian:



The ignore list is use less on here with the quote


I have the quote feature on Ignore.

Quoting 465. Patrap:

Gee, where the wunderground go?

LoL

Off the Pacific deep end........................................... :)
Quoting 422. FOREX:

The small tropical wave approaching South America doesn't seem to be getting any attention. Are there atmospheric reasons why? Thanks.
check comment #357 -- I was looking at that area last night. It held on better than I thought it would over night but the convection is less now. We'll see how it goes. Without a closer view I can't tell for sure if it's got some spin -- looks like it to me, though.
n my estimation no. Several elements contribute to this view. The first is that we're due. From '82 to '97 was 15 years. From 97' to '14 is 17 years.

Second, the April subsurface temps in Nino 3.4 were chart-busters on the high side. That body of warm water did migrate to Nino 1 & 2 by May.

Three, the Pacific Ocean continues to absorb the excess heat being generated by climate change.

Four, trade winds remain erratic.


ok....something fun to argue about....as you have your viewpoint and i have mine...and regardless who is right or wrong...or if we change each others mnds....it doesn't matter as the weather is what it is...now what others think it is :-)

i'm not a firm believer of the phrase "we;re due"...as it's probabilities which are the same except for slight variations year to year

as to your second statement..i will try to find the twitter feed that showed this el nino event compared to any strong event is much much weaker

as to your 3rd point....while i agree about heat absorption..i believe that it is equal at both surface and and sub surface and as such it will take the same conditions to create an el nino event

as for tradewinds...that's my next topic from the aussie discusssion
Tropical wave at 50W could bring us welcomed rain :-) But :/ ... an upper ridge could limit its strength :-(
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Quoting StormWx:


I simply showed the 3.4 region, the main El Nino region.

That's is factually not correct. Look up El Nino Modoki. Then understand that the call on how strong an El Nino is is based on Nino Zones 1, 2 and 3.
as far as tradewinds...not only are they still blowing westward...they have been at times above average....thus the slowdown of el nino formation as we're seeing


Trade winds
Trade winds are stronger than average over the far western tropical Pacific, and near-average across the remainder of the tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 15 June).
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
Quoting 427. yonzabam:



Well, it's too far south to become a tropical storm.
But it's headed WNW and could hold together. Just needs a bit more moisture and time. And less shear where it's headed :-).
now as i am someone who mentions the model means....this graph if true....well......we aint seeing an el nino by the means here....and....well....i will have been wrong in thinking we're going to have an el nino.....

477. MahFL
Quoting 422. FOREX:

The small tropical wave approaching South America doesn't seem to be getting any attention. Are there atmospheric reasons why? Thanks.


40 kts of shear.

Quoting ricderr:

SOI keeps giving the experts fits.......it should be in the negative numbers considering the conditions we are in but instead is in the positives at above 10 which usually would signal we are in a la nina event

ric,

I've been watching the SOI for the past month and scratching my head. It's not just the experts who can't quite explain this one. :)


Morning Everyone. Pretty incredible footage from yesterday's twisters. Not sure I've ever seen such a strong pair like that. Also, there's a nice little plume of moisture rising north out of the Caribbean.




Have a great Tuesday all!
Quoting 476. ricderr:

now as i am someone who mentions the model means....this graph if true....well......we aint seeing an el nino by the means here....and....well....i will have been wrong in thinking we're going to have an el nino.....




Are you saying no "super el nino:)"