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No tropical depression yet near Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:48 PM GMT on October 15, 2005

The broad 1005 mb low pressure area centered just south west of the island of Jamaica has become better organized this morning. The areal coverage of the deep convection continues to increase. Some weak upper-level outflow exists on the west and north sides of the system, and a weak upper level anti-cyclone has developed on top. Wind shear is still decreasing, and is now about 5 knots over the storm. All signs point to development of a tropical depression by Sunday, and a tropical storm by Monday. One complicating factor may be the presence of Jamaica so close to where the center is trying to form. This may slow development by half a day or so at most, since Jamaica is a relatively small island. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system at 4 pm EDT today.

Global computer models forecast that the shear will continue to remain low the next several days over the western Caribbean, where the disturbance is expected to remain. If the system can remain in the western Caribbean for five days, the chances of it growing to hurricane strength are good. The latest GFDL model run even suggests that major hurricane status is possible.


Figure 1.
Early model tracks for the Jamaica disturbance.

Steering currents are expected to remain weak the next five days, and the computer models have a variety of solutions, so pick one:

GFS model: A weak tropical storm with a slow WSW motion, with landfall in Belize in seven days.

UKMET model: A hurricane with a slow WNW motion, winding up in the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula in seven days.

NOGAPS model: Same as GFS, a weak tropical storm with a slow WSW motion, and a landfall in Belize in seven days.

GFDL model: A hurricane that moves WSW and stays in the Western Caribbean the next seven days.

Canadian model: Slow WSW motion as a tropical storm, then sharp northward turn and intensification into a hurricane as it crosses Cuba and passes just offshore Miami through the Bahama Islands.

If this system does eventually affect the U.S., the most likely target would be the Florida Keys or west coast of Florida, as there are many troughs of low pressure whizzing by that would grab this system and steer it to the northeast once it gets far enough north.

Cape Verdes tropical disturbance
A tropical disturbance about 500 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is experiencing high wind shear that will prohibit development for the next few days as it tracks west-northwest over the open ocean.

Katrina's winds revisited
In my last blog entry on this subject, we discussed the Florida Sun-Sentinel article commenting on new findings that indicate Katrina was only a Category 3 hurricane at first landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi, and a Category 1 hurricane over New Orleans. The article was rather imprecise in its use of the Category system for ranking hurricanes, and I interpreted the article to mean that Katrina was a Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi. Upon re-reading the article, I think what they were trying to say was that Katrina had Category 1 force winds over New Orleans, not that the storm itself was a Category 1. As several of you have pointed out, it is pretty difficult to have a hurricane with a 927 mb pressure (Katrina's pressure at landfall in Mississippi) with just Category 1 winds. Katrina was a least a strong Category 2, and perhaps a weak Category 3 hurricane at landfall in Mississippi. While Katrina did have unusualy high winds aloft compared to surface winds (which NHC noted on one of their discussions during the storm), this difference was not enough to make Katrina a Category 1 hurricane at landfall in Mississippi. Sorry for sowing the confusion!

My next post will be Saturday afternoon about 5pm.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

first
second and hi from The Bahamas :)
"Johnny.... tell them what they've won!"
Thanks Dr. M.
Morning all,

IR and WV satellite images of "Wilma-to-be" seem to show continued development of heavy convection and thunderstorms and also that the whole system has moved a bit to the west.

Any guesses on when Wilma-to-be gets TD status? My bet is by the 5 pm update today.
Is LBAR the Canadian model and why is it always contrary ? :)
Dr. Jeff

Can you look at the wind history for Rita? I was in N.O. a week after Katrina and noticed that only one side of the city seemed to have really bad winds. You did not have to travel far from the path of the eye to see the decrease in wind damage.
I live in Beaumont and have toured the area extensively. Many officials here (weather, Power company, ER) believe that the wind damage from Rita was much worse. I agree.
How would they compair?....does Rita's seem stronger?

Just wondering...
DC
Re: LBAR

No, it's not the Canadian model. See here
Great......it could go anywhere from the bahamas to belieze!!!!! Now where can I lay down my bet? I will take those odds....gimme a break!!!! How stupid is that? That is over 180 degrees!!!! Maybe it will go SE just to screw with us
The way Dr Master's worded the canadian model forcast (which is similar to the LBAR tract) may have been confusing, with no mention of LBAR & model map above, one might assume they are the same. They are not here is the canadian model (aka cmc) Link Don't foget to pan right & hit forward. It loads some, starts over, loads more & again & again.

As par for the season I expect it to devolop this weekend during a football game.
Hope the RECOM mission flies this thing...its looking better organized by the hour. I think we will have one of those wham bam go from "disturbance" to strong TS in 2 warnings. That is...call it a TD in the first and strong TS in the very next warning.
Climatology would suggest that the Florida Keys and the rest of the state should watch this developing tropical system very carefully. Sounds like from the experts that it will be a slow mover for the next few days and be forced northward by a series of troughs, towards Florida. Lets wait and see but keep in the back of mind that this may become yet another threat to US.
Good Morning Everyone,

Haven't had a chance to lurk or post since last Wed afternoon. Went back to work Thur and so busy missed out on a lotI am sure.
Just scanned the above and see our "period of rest" may about be over. Where did this storm come from? Looks good on Satellite. The models have it going everywhere.
Wilma!!!!!

Still busy at work today; much to do since was "off site" most of this week but will check in from time to time to see what all of you have to say and keep up.

I love reading this on Sat at work and letting my peers know what is expected soon! Most of them don't know anything is even out there until we are under warnings!

Later,
SE FLa Gamma
By the way, here in SE Fla, Broward County, it is a really blah day; cloudy with off and on rain. Where's that coming from? Can't see much on Satellite or Radar that could be causing it. Any guesses?
Hi gamma,
There is a Mesoscale low just offshore causing the unsettled weather. The clouds are all very low level, so the don't show up all the well in IR satellite.

It "should" begin to clear up north-to-south soon. Clouds are already breaking up in east central PBC.
Its a qurky shallow,little low pressure that has been moving south-southwestward during the past couple of days. Nothing more than a converance or lift in the atmosphere. This was the leading edge of drier air that is supposed to bring our dewpoints down into the 60s Fort Lauderdale has had over 1.50 of rain this morning.
Gamma, sorry you're having dreary weather down there. That's what we had Mon-Thurs. It's gorgeous here today. Wish I could share it with you. Wonderful weather - 60's at night, around 80 for the day. Just the way I like it. Not too hot, not too cold.
You should have a little less humidity in se fl after it clears up....this wimpy front just made it through swfl and it is maybe a degree cooler, however the humidity is down a tad!

It really has taken a awhile to get these fronts through to s fl...but by 5 days we shall see if one is strong enough to pull Wilma (or Aplha) towards us on our coast or even maybe to the keys- miami---

we dont need another Chazz!!!!
No wonder it feels great this morning!

Current Conditions
Fair

72F
(22C) Humidity: 59 %
Wind Speed: N 7 MPH
Barometer: 29.95" (1014.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 57F (14C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
I dont know but it looks as if what is to be wilma should curve north and northeast towars sw florida and move ne through orlando area kind of similar to the track of charley there will be another front headed towards the fl region early next week ...so we shall wait and see i just dont see this thing going towards honduras or belize area just my "opinion" ... anyone agree?
she sure seems to be heading sw at a good clip.....or at least the convection does
1130 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
JUST WEST OF JAMAICA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE AREA OF SQUALLS WHICH IS ALREADY AFFECTING JAMAICA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE WARM WATERS BEWTEEN JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A HURRICANE. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...CUBA
...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.

Posted By: seflagamma at 3:39 PM GMT on October 15, 2005.

Good Morning Everyone,

Haven't had a chance to lurk or post since last Wed afternoon. Went back to work Thur and so busy missed out on a lotI am sure.


Well, just to catch you up:

1. Much to everyone's surprise, a couple of bloggers had a disagreement over a hurricane prediction.

2. It was determined that Katrina actually came ashore at Pensacola, FL as a weak Tropical Depression, and that the destruction in Mississippi was due to liquifaction caused by a previously undetected earthquake in Minnesota.

3. We figured out that when we run through all the hurricane names and run through all the greek letters of the alphabet, they start naming the storms in Sanskrit.

4. It was determined that #3 will occur by next Thursday.

Hi everyne, here's an interesting article, I'll try to make it a LINK Link
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
JUST WEST OF JAMAICA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
LARGE AREA OF SQUALLS WHICH IS ALREADY AFFECTING JAMAICA AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE WARM WATERS BEWTEEN JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN A HURRICANE. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...CUBA
...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MIDWAY BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$
Dangit....someone beat me to it.....
Great, another great unknown... we get tpo wait out the week and see what becomes of the Jamaica blob...
I'm back for a few minutes. Subtropic, Matilda101, Buhdog, and Palmettobug thanks for the updates and letting me know what is happening. Hopefully we can get that good weather moved in down here later today.
Califonia...that was too funny...love hearing what I had missed over the past few days...somethings never change.

So Wilma is in the making and looking good, just don't know if she will be another Charley or a Mitch ?
And what is that spin NE of the Virgin Islands, no real clouds with it but you can see the counter clockwise spin..anything developing or just an ULL?

Keep posting and I will get back on here later.
thats an upper level low
afternoon, everyone! updated my blog with more pics, this time at a more personal level...

Link
Finn, that was an interesting article. Bookmarked the site for reading a little later. Check out those "curious" clouds in their image gallery. Cool!
Afternoon leftyy, any ideas on track of Jamaica storm? Any north component possible or is this thing headed to central america?
Compliments of Accuweather and Joe Bastardi...............

An area of low pressure near Jamaica is looking more organized and could become a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. The latest thinking on movement of this system is to take the feature west or northwest today into tonight very slowly. Beyond that, computer model output shows either a west-northwest movement or a due northward movement. All model output suggests this will become a well-organized tropical system, which could use the last name on the list of hurricane names, Wilma. Any other storms named after Wilma will use the Greek Alphabet.
no telling where she will go. we will know more from the model runs once she is classified and we have a determined center. so the runs after the recon will be key
I say it becomes a declared depression this afternoon in a special statement or at latest 5 p.m. this afternoon.
From that site Finn linked in earlier:
Hurricanes from above.....

Link
Recon is at 4:00 eeatern I believe when are the first model runs after that? Thanks lefty
well i believe it is already a depression and they are just waiting for recon. recon will be there at 2pm est so i say between 2 and 4 it will be a depression
Whats up St Simons..........Have you gotten back to your regular routine since that big storm came through?????????
Theres a chance if things pan out....you could be seeing some more action next weekend......a small chance, but still a chance.......if wilma develops and moves NW and gets caught up in a trough......she could pay us a visit....that would be a bonus for me....I didnt think that I was going to have another shot this year....but you never know..........
lefty,
About 10 days ago you let me know that SE Fla did not have any tropical weather to worry about for the next 10 days and I could plan ahead and do what I needed to do. You were correct and I got a lot accomplished around the yard. Can you give me the same assurance for the next ten days!!! (I doubt it!)

I hate to say it and Central America does not need to get hit, but I really do not want another Charlie coming up this way. Last year we got more rain from Charlie & Ivan and more wind from Francis and Jeanne. I am ready to be done with Hurricane Season!
lol wish i could. i just knew nothign was going to form per the models. now we have formation we won't have any good idea where she will go for a few model runs.

but personally i think this is a central america storm but thats just my early speculative track lol
Hey everyone..Its not in doubt in my personal opinion that a depression has already formed based on the Satellite imagery, surface obs, water vapor, etc. However, it won't be classified until Recon gets in there since it has only achieve unofficial depression status so recently.. that are making the wise choice since its not a real significant threat to land areas at its present strength and direction. I will be very surprised if its not at least a 35 mph depression once they issue either a special advisory if recons in there prior to the 5pm advisory. If not, it will certainly be clasified as such in the 5 pm advisory. One additional note based on its current presentation, don't be too surprised if it skips depression status and is a minimal Tropical storm by the time recon gets there. As far as thrack forecasts, honestly its too early to predict with anymore certainty that a best guess and no matter what we all say, thats what it comes down to at this point with a still imprecise center plotted and such slow movement and an atmospheric setup that could steeer it toward sw Fl. or as far west as Northern Central America.. I would favor a direction toward the Yucatan or just east of that in time but its all speculation at this point. However, I definately see a future hurricane originating from this system and the possibilty of category three given the right trajectory, etc. Right now, its simply too early to predict any of the above with great certainty.
thanks Chaser
palmetto, just saw that you're in Charleston. My husband went through Hugo In your city and his accounts are tremendous. Where you there too at the time?
47. IKE
Is there ANY chance this storm could make it up to the Panhandle of Florida or is that an impossibility?
Its amazing.. I simply cannot post a comment without alot of typos. LOL.. In my haste to post quickly with the typing ability of a 7 year old, I don't usually proof read being posting. In my blogs however, I do proof read and make those corrections which means it takes awhile for me to complete my blog entries.. LOL
Yw Sebastian.
Mr Chaser whats up........Hey if Wilma does her thing, we both might get a shot to catch some action...........lol......
Hey hurricanechase and Lefty-
Hurricanechaser: You hit the nail on the head. I just want to add something. I believe that if this system stays over the Caribbean for 6 days or more, it has a great chance at being a cat. 4 based on the topic of part of our discussion yesterday about this year's storms and the water temps in that area. Also, if it does become quite strong, I think the Canadian and GFDl would be right with path into the Gulf or over Cuba and into the Keys as troughs are getting farther and farther south this time of the year.
IKE....Yes there is a chance........to early to tell for sure where it is going to go.......fun to watch though......
52. IKE
Where are you weatherboyfsu....Tallahassee?
Heck....we had to major Hurricanes in JULY, why not in OCTOBER.......Tornadoty.....I will be very surprised if we see another cat 4 this season.......I guess anythings possible........
Orlando
Weatherboy- The record warm Caribbean hasn't been touched since Emily in July. And remember, Mitch formed later in October than this storm.
Any idea as to when the earliest models will allow you all to forecast track?
weatherboyfsu im in orlando too... eastside actually ..union park area and you?
Honestly...There is still that possibilty..not the most likely path though, but at this stage..the possibilty does exist. As far as the Panhandle, thats a far more difficult proposition since it will require a strong trough to dig down far enough to steer it away from A Central American or Yucatan landfall. It would take a combination of a strong trough picking it up, then unexpectantly leaving it behind in the central gulf before another trough picks it up and steers it toward the panhandle.. Not impossible yet unlikely at best. But thre are no experts in tropical meteorology, just keep that in mind. Just more educated guesses and more experienced forecasters and even a layperson can predict better than someone more knowledable because its such an imprecise scieence and there arent but so many possibilties as a system draws closer to a possible landfall. In other words, its safe to say that all so called experts are at least incorrect in the ultimate prediction of landfall from 24 hours out to landfall. Given this understandable degree of difficukty, that must always be kept in mind. Thats the reason you see such a large cone for projected movement as well as a very extensive area covering hundreds of miles in any warning area. Think of it like this, given any our forecasting sucess rates , none of which exceed 50% at best, would you want to have major life threatening surgery performed on you by the best expert in his fiels who at best has a 50% chance of getting it right. How much confidence will you have with your life on the line with those odds. Thats why its best to keep an open mind and only ruling out a specific area when it seems very unlikely, because in this business, peoples lives are truly on the line.
Yeah....Im with ya.......Tornadoty.......just dont believe with all the dry air just north of potential WILMA.....and the way the troughs are setting up.....In July the weather conditions were unprecedent....shear, moisture, temps were all just right...unusual for that time of year as is October.....all the ingredients dont line up.....it is possible thats for sure.....
when we have a recon determined center and a formed depression. than all models will be sign better but still inaccurate. it will be 2-3 model runs befor a definite "idea" of a track emerges. so say tomm after noon at the earliest and those runs could still be off past 3 days anyway
Hey tornado.. youre right in that just about any conceivable scenario at this pint cannot be ruled out but can be in time.. Thats the exciting part of forecasting..the extreme difficulty.
Hey weatherboy,
If it does go far enough north in Fl...I will more than lkely chase that one...would like a partner or two.
okay,,thats 3 times in less than 24 hours..I've typed "pint" instead of "point"..please grade my typing skills on a significant curve everyone..lol
the gfdl calls for a 150kt storm in 5 days. thats at 925 flight level so that mmakes it a 135kt cat 5 being called for by the gfdl at the surface. so it sees something just like it did with riat and katrina. io belive she will be a cat 3 or higher but douibt cat 5. the ships calls for a strong 2 but has been increasing itsa forcast strength with each run so would not be suprised if the next run calls for a cat 3 as well
Hi code1, I think you asked me something yesterday, can't remember what I needed so say, or am I just dementic?
Master.....Im in Western Orlando......from Clermont originally...
many people talk about "Alec's blog". what, where is it?
Oh yeah......I thought you were in Virginia.....thats along ride.....
Chaser-where are you located?
Lakeworth......just click on blogs at the top of the page....it shows you all the blogs........
I agree Lefty..there are so many variables as we all have noted.. none of which is as important at this point given the warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear is direction of movement and how long it has a chance to strengthen. a Central American landfall at an unexpected increase in forward speed which is not impossible would greatly decrease its forecasted intensity. However, a slow track without stalling which would elimate upwelling, in the direction of the YUcatan channel or even slow enough its over water for five days brings significant major hurricane prospects into greater liklihood.
Hi Finn, didn't pose any questions to you. Just talking about SAD and wishing you luck traveling home. Thanks for the answer Leftyy.
Hey guys, I have a bit of a moral dillema-
I help dcw with his website by issuing advisories. I am 99.9% sure that I will be starting advisories at 5 PM for this system. I issue forecasts in my advisories, and I seriously believe that this will be a major hurricane 5 days out, even if the NHC does not say that in an advisory. If they don't, I don't want people panicking based on my information, even though I do specify that those are my forecasts and not the NHC's. If the NHC does not call for a 95 KT+ hurricane, should I or should I not call for it to reach major status, even if I think it will? What would you do?
no alec, just Dr Jeff and 3 others
torn most of us wouldn;t have the problem as wedon;t issue advisories.
Lefty, my gut says cat. 4 all the way. I have a bad feeling that a large group of people will be in trouble with this storm.
Torn, appreciate your insights and knowledge, but think you have answered your own question...I'd wait awhile.
Im in Wilmington North carolina.
Lefty, I just want to know what you would do IF you were in my situation.
no offense but i think the advispries are dumb and have no purpose. just my opinion
You're right, code1. I think that unless the NHC calls for 95 KT+, I will keep it at cat. 2 or lower.
Thinking of moving to Ashville area next year, how do you like NC? Are you from there?
I refer to my earlier comments and add that if you want to issue advisories do so with conservatism in mind..its not as much about looking like an expert as it is about saving lives. YOu can always upgrade your intensity forcasts in future advisories. Keep in mind, The NHC always is conservative in their intensity forecasts and with the disclaimer it could be off by two categories and they are as close to be an expert in this imprecise science as there are.
Lefty, for me, they have no purpose than to have an outlet to argue with the high level of conservatism of the NHC.
opps..left off my earler comments..here they are..go with the previous post for tornado...
But there are no experts in tropical meteorology, just keep that in mind. Just more educated guesses and more experienced forecasters and even a layperson can predict better than someone more knowledable because its such an imprecise scieence and there arent but so many possibilties as a system draws closer to a possible landfall. In other words, its safe to say that all so called experts are at least incorrect in the ultimate prediction of landfall from 24 hours out to landfall. Given this understandable degree of difficukty, that must always be kept in mind. Thats the reason you see such a large cone for projected movement as well as a very extensive area covering hundreds of miles in any warning area. Think of it like this, given any our forecasting sucess rates , none of which exceed 50% at best, would you want to have major life threatening surgery performed on you by the best expert in his fiels who at best has a 50% chance of getting it right. How much confidence will you have with your life on the line with those odds. Thats why its best to keep an open mind and only ruling out a specific area when it seems very unlikely, because in this business, peoples lives are truly on the line.
Very good points, hurricanechaser. Thanks for your insight!
Finn,
Are you published? Love reading about mystical and old time events! Would rather buy material from someone known (thanks to WU and welcome to you!).
Everyone needs to remember that the forecasters at the NHC have a serious dilemma on their hands in making advisories since thats where all lay people, residents,forecasters, and other experts look firstr as well as they should. None of which is as important as realizing the media and the residents who could be in harms way are most interested in thast forecast and knowing that, many lives are in their hands so to speak and the cost to the economy in over warning are like $1 million per mile or so.. Therefore, they have to balance all of this whle we can make our predictions and if incorrect, hopefully noone gets hurt by it. Its the wisest course of action in my opinion if I had that responsibilty to error on the side of conservatism in intensity forecasts this far out.
One last thing and I got to go.....football games.....

Unless your out in a boat or plane in the center of the storm.....(or we're lucky and the storm moves right over a buoy) no one knows what exactly is the true strength of the winds.....and the winds pulse up and down as do the ingredients that make this type of storm go........and for the protection of the recon flights....the planes never fly close to surface, and we do have dropsondes to measure the winds.....my point is everyones analysis is a guess.....including the NHC.....all we can do is educate people that there is possibilities of danger in the near future and go with that.... I do think it would be nice to have a second agency monitoring the storms....maybe one day.....later
Finn ~ look below the 3 other blogs, below the alfabetical search. 100's of blogs, you can also click on someones name that has left a comment in a blog (like mine above) & that will take you to that persons blog if they have one. You should make a blog!
torn, I do believe that if there is, even a remote, possibility of Wilma becoming a major hurricane, you should say that. What do you lose by posting that opinion? If it doesn't happen, good for all those affected. The 'gutt'-feeling is part of every great researchers work (and I share that gutt-feeling you've had for days). It's better to have as wide a range of opinions as possible.
skypony, thanx
code1 - published internationally but not in English (yet). Will let you know when that happens
LakeWorthFinn, you're right, but I am going to wiat until I thoroughly read and contemplate the NHC's discussion and forecast.
Yeah, you should give your own reports. Don't even read the NWS ones, make it your own report. Not rehashed NWS. If they are similiar then you've come to the same conclution.
Lefty, when do you think the first vortex is due out?
Weatherboyfsu it has been fine here, quiet since Tammy. After our more than 23" of rain, we have had none for 8 days, and they yard is drying out. Fall started for us on Thursday night, and since then it has been around 64 both nights, and in the mid high 70s in daytime and "severe clear".

My predictions: 'wilma' will become the 7th major hurricane of the year.

AND

She will never affect the US with tropical storm or hurricane force winds.
StSimons, Wilma would be major #6. :)
Also here is another goofball prediction

Ophelia was our longest lasting tropical storm/hurricane with 258 hours consecutively at tropical storm or hurricane strength. 'wilma' will beat that.
I want to clarify that noone should substitute any of my predictions, Lefty, Tornados, etc. and respectfully including Dr. Masters in place of the most experienced and knowledable in this field of study that currently issue advisories at the NHC. Thats why we are making our predictions here and they are their with the enormous burden of serious consequences if incorrect which is a given to some degree due to the imprecision in tropical meteorological forcasts. In other words, if you life came down to one major surgery and you could only choose one doctor and you could afford the very best, who would you choose. I would go with the best in the profession and thats the NHC forecasters. There is nothing wrong with supplementing with other forecasters predictions to determine your own best course of action but I would always recommend balancing that input against the NHC's predictions. Yes, they will be incorect the majority of the time due to the difficukty involved but are still the best resourse. They are only human as evidenced by the obsurd suggestion by DR. Powell at NOAAS research division clearly stating that Katrina was a category one hurricane at Mississippi landfall. I reread the article and not to be contradictory because Dr. Masters didn't write the article and has a different personal view, but, Dr. Masters I believe was trying to be diplomatic when He stated that he misread the article and that DR. Powell doesn't appear to state that. Please read it yourself everyone.. He states clearly that Katrina was a 95 mph hurricane east of New Orleans, not that New Orleans got 95 mph sustained winds.
Okay Finn. Be careful in the other blogs. There are very good people and also very bad, as in trolls, who make it their duty to defile people on this blog as they were so inept on this one, had to go elsewhere. Enjoy reading though. Got the right idea Torn! You are very good and no need to cause mass hysteria. The Gulf Coast region has had enough for the past year, that any advisory, regardless from whom it comes, will cause panic at this point. Sad, but true due to past events.
tornadoty you are right! Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria, Rita.
Hurricanechaser, Dr. Powell said that the winds over the eastern portion of NO were 95 MPH, and 65 MPH over the western portion. That is clear. The article and another scientist skewed it as to say that it landfalled at that intensity.
In summary Tornado...
Make your own predictions but clearly display a disclaimer saying that your readers should refer to the NHC advisories and that it is your own personal opinion.. In that case, I see nothing wrong with it.
Youre right about the 95mph Its not clear if he referring to sustained or gusts..the highest reported gust in New orleans was 105 mph if I'm not mistaken.
104. code1
No disrespect intended Chaser, but...you don't live here. Reported wind speed means nothing to us who have damage.
It would be hypocritical for any of us in my opinion to say Tornado..don't predict based on your own observations because what are all the rst of us doing in here..lol...but I simply suggest a visible disclaimer which I mentioned in a previous comment in this blog. Honestly, I make my decisions based upon my own predictions and it has served me well in my chasing..
I know that it is too soon to say, without a center even being located yet, but it seems to me that this storm is moving to the west pretty quick. I base that just on my observation of the sat.pics. But it seems to me that it is not just sitting there, but moving west at a pretty quick clip.
hurricanechaser, the highest official wind I saw in New Orleans itself was 69 gusting to 86 mph at lakefront airport at 7 am EDT. However, the center of Katrina did get closer for the next 2 1/2 hours. So winds in the 90 mph range seem likely. The western eyewall never went over New Orleans, and having winds well over hurricane force on the left side of the hurricane and outside the eyewall shows that Katrina was well past cat 1 status, even if the winds were just cat 1 in the city.
Code..point well taken..but I have family there who did have damage so I take offense honestly to Katrina being downgraded to a category one and my family experienced winds fart greater. If Dr. Powell was correct which he clearly isn't, my family in Picayune, MS. wouldn't be homeless so to speak.
You're right, hurricanechaser. I will make my decision when the time comes. Now, does anyone know when the first vortex is due out?
I agree with your observation Sebastian..I thought the same thing when I look at the Satellitte imagery around 1215 pm..
111. code1
I agree with you Chaser. That is why I cautioned Torn. Just not a good situation in any way, dam@*d if you do, and dam@*d if you don't. lol
Code,
I hope you understand my perception regarding my families plight. Not too mention, I stayrd behind for three days volunteering to help those in need and make many new friends..read my Katrina entry on my website on he hurricane Katrina chase link at hurricaneadventures.com.
Tornado,
there is no definate time for the vortex because it depends on how long it takes for the hurricane hunters to locate center and sample the system enough to upgrade or not...but I believe I heard from some source they would be into the storm by around 3 to 4 pm.
I know very little about this, that's why I enjoy this blog, but everyone, Dr. Jeff and others say that the steering currents are weak. If so what is pushing this thing west? weak or not I'd be interested in knowing what is pushing it and what is the forecast for what will push it in the future.
Thanks hurricanechaser.
If I'm not mistaken and I could..I believe the weak high pressure to its morth may be stronger than anticipated and as a result its being steered by the clockwise easterly winds in the upper levels. To the best of my knowledge, they havn't sampled the upper level environment aloft with the Gulf Stream jet but they will in time which will make the forecasts more precise in the future,
YW tornado.. and if I ever unintentionally offend anyone on here or have..please let me know and a sincre apology will be forthcoming.. I really enjoy meeting and talking with all of you and love this community.
I don't know about you guys, but I would never want to experience fart greater winds like Chaser's family did.
Thanks Chaser, any idea what that High is supposed to do in the near future?
If this thing comes to NW Florida so help me God...
Hey Sebastian,
i apologize for missing your earlier? about NC..I take so long to type a comment that I have to go back to read and catch up. As a result, I miss some of the comments. If i don't ever respond to anyones questions posed to me.. please know its because I missed it.
Regardless of what Katrina's winds were, I think we learned again what the experts have been telling us all along. The greatest danger from hurricanes is from the storm surge, not the wind. Regardless of the wind the greatest damage both in NOLA and along the Gulf Coast was from surge.
No problem Chaser.
they are located south very near the coast and Popularville, MS. about 30 miles north of there registered a gust of 134.5 mph..so thats why I take exception with the category one theory...If it had simply been that weak..they would still have a home and many lives would have not been lost..so to me its bording on criminal and creates more undue hardship to suggest a weakening cat one caused that loss of property and lives... a cat one cannot cause that kind of damage 150 miles inland as well with recorded gusts to 100 mph. So for me, it does matter from that perspective because I have loved ones and family there not too mention. I was in South Hattisburg and saw and lived through it myself in contrast to someone who was thousands of miles away with presumably no emotional ties to the data and consequences thast resulted from it.
What's going on with "Wilma"??? I look at simple sat loops and seems it's splitting in two, is that possble?
Very true..but the wind is still the second biggest concern and many lives have been lost as a result from getting sandblasted to death for example. And it only takes a 55 mph gust in wet soil tyo drop a tre on a persons house or car and kill them.. During Katrinas first ladfall, just about all deaths were a result of downed trees.. but your pint is sooo true..like they say...run from the water and hide from the wind.
Sebastian,... I love it here along the coast.. awesome climate and friendly people. I have only been to the mountains once, but if you like the mountains..youll love Asheville especially this time of year...its gorgeous.
True Chaser, I know when Jeanne was howling about 120 mph outside my door, it was all about the wind for me, and more importantly the former trees behind my house. lol.
Son and little grankids,OMG, live there that's why we're thinking about moving there. I do love mountains, use to live in Blue Ridge about 90 miles west of Lefty in Va.
It looks interesting LakeWorthFinn...
recon now desecnding down to flight level of 1000ft or less. they shopuld begin crossing thru the storm in the next 30 minutes
"Katrina might have further downgraded to a strong Category 1 system with 95 mph winds when it punched water through New Orleans' levees, severely flooding most of the city and killing hundreds. The levees were designed to withstand a Category 3 storm."

This is from the article that clearly implies from my point of view..downgraded to cat one with 95 mph winds is not saying New orleans experienced 95 mph cat 1 winds in this quote which Tornado correctly pointed out it does say in the article as well.

133. code1
Chaser,
You are preaching to the choir here, lol. I read your family's plight. So sorry :( My point exactly! Ivan was nothing in comparison, and I was terrified, horrified, etc. at the aftermath. Good luck to you and yours. I also have a very good friend in Slidell, flood and wind, so know something about Katrina's damage as well. As I am very uneducated, but learning of these matters, you can understand what I meant by sounding the warning bell too soon. Although, I do agree with other posts, yours included, to be prepared. As they say, forewarned is forearmed.
the storm is not spltting. itds a closed circulation and splitting does not happen. what ur seeing is an enhanced area of convergence due to alot of factors. but no splitting
recon now at flight level and have already recorded winds in to 20mph range.
This is also rom the article talking directly about Katrinas intensity not simply New Orleans winds..

Powell noted that the revised wind analysis was conducted under an experimental program and should not be considered official. He said the new readings could be off by as much as 10 percent, which still would make Katrina a Category 3 at landfall.

Robert Howard, an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Louisiana at Monroe, said Katrina might have been a Category 1 at landfall.

In the same area were the hurricane center found 145 mph winds, he said a 2-meter tower near Buras showed gusts of 114 mph and sustained winds of about 94 mph, or strong Category 1 status.
No one metions the size of the eye and the fact that Buras most likely did not get the strongest winds. Also, did that tower ever fail or not?
Please see the graphic where they make the revised adjustments for Katrinas plot at certain locations which has it now a 92 mph cat 1 just on the coast in Mississippi... theres no way anyone can misinterpret that.. Thats why I'm so addiment about it and how no cat 1 would've caused my families plight from directly wind not surge there.
Hurricanechaser, you need to bring all of this to Dr. Masters attention so that he can see how ludacris this is, even if he does admire Dr. Powell's work.
Link

please see graphic and enlarge it on the right of this page.
Im sorry to keep bringing it up..its just absurd and its an emotional issue for me..I have family there who didn't lose their home to surge...and now they suggest a wakening cat one destroyed their home...its offensive to me...but I will let it go..thanks for understanding..the graphic leaves no room for subjectivity ..it clearly shows a weakening cat one that destroyed their home. It would be funny if it was'nt so serious.
142. code1
Agree with Chaser, Saint and others who have strongly disagreed. As Chaser so adamantly said, "a cat one cannot cause that kind of damage." You have to live it to understand it.
hey code...Im sorry you had to endure it..On the other hand, Im so thankful you are still here to talk with us:)
recon should be making first center fix soon. no winds above 23mph yet so not sure if we have a depression or not yet
Finn, you asked me if I was in Charleston for Hugo. I posted my reply on your blog. I knew I would get "windy" on the subject! :-)
heres the latest supplementary data message as lefty was referring to..

000
URNT11 KNHC 151934
97779 19304 70185 79900 03500 36020 25241 /0005
43615
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 08


note the time this was mae is...in the second group of numbers...the first 4 numbers is in utc time or 3:30 pm edt.
ok winds of 25 mph now. belive we have a depression and the center looks to be near 18.03n 79.31w this is the first pass so likley not the tru center yet. wuill no more on the next pass
Hi from Jamaica.......Just my luck, I have this thing almost in my backyard and I had no time to watch and follow!!!!!!! Have a house full of family from Texas London and Virginia. Its a holiday weekend here and the family just decided that my house would be the best place for a lyme.
Right now very cloudy with intermittent rain. It rained more yesterday when I was making all those trips to the airport. Would sombody be kind enough to email me an up date that I can check in a hour , so that I dont have to scrole through the blog to get the information??? That would be very kind.














sorrry guys that was the RECCO obs.
Code, I know exactly where you're coming from. Been there and done that. Doesn't matter what the "official" wind speed is when you're sitting in the middle of it!
151. code1
Thanks. That is why this blog is so special and different from others. Let's us all give differing opinions and educates us all in some form. Kudos to you Doc M! Kudos also, to those of you with the real knowledge (you know who you are) to keep the rest of us informed. Thanks as always. Going to make some homemade soup now, anyone want a virtual cuppa?? Tropical season brings that out in me. Be glad when over.
000
UZNT13 KNHC 151906
XXAA 1519/ 99195 70824 04592 99006 28845 ///// 00053 28647 92741
22429 85474 18860 70121 12275 50586 02980 88999 77999
31313 09608 81855
61616 AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 06
62626 1859 AEV 20507 =
XXBB 15198 99195 70824 04592 00006 28845 11936 22815 22907 22056
33879 19846 44850 18860 55831 17659 66777 16874 77706 12679 88685
11069 99670 10683 11620 06872 22501 02780 33485 05576
31313 09608 81855
61616 AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 06
62626 1859 AEV 20507 =


heres the latest dropsounde data on the possible depression..
nice meeting you Code..have a good day.
Hey everyone..I have to get a shower and get to the gym before they close.... Thanks for all your time and comments,..its always a pleasure.
palmetto, will check yur comment on my blog in a while, it's sauna time - heaven for me :), see ya all later
See ya later hurricanechaser.
Assuming of course they find a closed circulation. The pressure is already low enough at 1005-1004.5 for a borderline depression/tropical storm. Lefty what are the criteria for a closed circulation? In the old days, the 1950s and 60s, they had to find west winds of at least 10 mph.
thanks tornado..keep upi the great insight..you too lefty and the others :)
Later-chaser lol
I'll be back in a little while, around 5 PM. I need a break.
winds rotating around a defined center would be considered a closed circulation. also the center should be the area of lowest pressure in the storm
ok before I go..who wants to go chase this one with me if it makes a dramatic turn to threaten these areas..if interested.. leave me a comment in my blog or mail...I'll only be going if its north of Tampa to east of Pensacola... which is not likely but I have to go because Im a free lance videographer for Fox news so its my job..hopefully not too strong to threaten lives or property.
163. code1
You too Chaser. Finn, I AM JEALOUS!
I'm back. What's the latest status on the system?
lefty, you got an update yet? Appears we are all waiting on you to get in here with the latest.
The Sun Sentinal Article also suggests peak intensity was 141mph... ridiculous for a 902mb central pressure and max fl winds at 160kt. Im sure there is dropsonde data which directly contradicts that assessment, if somehow flight level winds and the pressure arent good enough (which they are).
IT IS OFFICIAL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24!
HERE WE ARE FOLKS TD 24:

Link
It looks like the Caribbean is forming another storm. Last hour looks strong. Enough energy from the southwest and south central Caribbean seem to be feeding in to the storm.
170. code1
Leftyy, recon analysis?
Crap Lefty, NHC calls for turn into GULF. Crap crap crap crap crap crap crap.
172. code1
Update torn, leftyy, quick, soup is on, may need it earlier now!
From the discussion:

"All indications are that there could be a dangerous hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the next 3 to 5 days."
Code1, we have TD 24, NHC expects cat. 2, maybe "a dangeroud hurricane". Turns it in Gulf.
175. code1
I know it is too early to forecast with any specific authority, but, going back to Miami from the panhandle on Monday. Driving this time in order to take my dogs. Don't want to be stuck in the interstate parking lot coming home. Should I leave the dogs and fly or drive and take my chances? Please update tomorrow so that I can change travel plans if needed. Thanks guys!!!!!!!
Hey everyone...I guess the gym wil have to wait till tomorrow...I got caught up in analyzing the depression.
Yep...somebody's gonna be screaming "WILLLLMAAAAAA!!!!!" sounding like some Fred Flintstone during the ending theme. Like we've said before, the females have sure been trouble this year!
I'll update you tomorrow code1 with my thoughts.
Its so early so we are all speculating right now including the NHC..huge cone as well it should be. HOwver, it does appear that this storm may be recurving and more of a threat to sw FL. and the FLA. straits.
Hey hurricanechaser, the NHC thinks like me nowadays, look at the predicted path.
good job tornado..:)
My first call for this storm: Naples, Sunday the 23rd, cat. 3 (120 MPH winds). Just a preliminary guess.
Oh Tornado,, I took your advice and sent a message to Dr. Masters.
Actually thats in line with my earl;y assessment that you see below.
This is absolutely one time that I want to be VERY VERY VERY wrong.
Thats like the GFDL and GFS agreeing on a similar path:)
Did I mention that I want to be VERY wrong?
Great minds think alike hurricanechaser.
Id place the cone right now anywhere from northern Yucatan to the Bahamas to keep watch..with the real threat being Cuba naturally, then sw Fl. from Port CHarlotte south to the Fl.straits...more likely Fl. straits than Port Charlotte. It wil depend on how deep the trough dips and where the storm is located when it gets picked up..noone knowws those answers yet and wont for the next 3-5 days.
Tornado..please forgive me if I should already know this answer..I don't remeber exactly where you live..or was that Port CHarlotte>?
oh no im in orlando ..is it just me or does this like like a hurricane charley path??
hey weathermaster..it could be but id say more likely south of that.
I actually live in Schererville, IN, about 25 mi SE of Chicago, but my grandparents live in Ocala. Who you are thinking of is groundedtruccr, who we were talking to last night and lives in Port Charlotte.
I did mention Port Charlotte area ..lol..so Orlando on a ne motion would get another hit..:)
chaser I hope your right... but this doesnt look good at all
That is one poorly written public advisory. Jeez, get a copy editor on the case!

Question -- why is it regular posters here seem to always "predict" extreme storms making landfall in highly-populated areas? I recall someone doing an NHC-style forecast advisory for Rita that had it peaking at 215 mph sustained, never mind no storm has ever had max winds at 200 even. I'm honestly expecting someone to predict that Wilma will split Florida in two forever, seperating Disney World and EPCOT center in seperate states.
thats right..thanks for that..if as far north as Tampa..a problem for Grandparents I'm afraid :(
This could turn out to be the whipped cream and cherry on top of the ice cream cone from hell.
weathermaster I ammended that with my earlier assessment forgot my early prediction would bring it to Orlando..I was simply focusing on landfall which I feel is possible south of Port CHarlotte to Fl. straits.. thats a very narrow cone this far out..leaves lots of room for error of course.
I agrre with your observation..a path very very similar to CHarley and its as logical as any other right now..can't even rule out as far north as Cedar Key just yet, although Id be extremely surprised.
i think its more of a threat to the southern tip of florida id any threat. waiting for the next run of the gfdl. the latest continues to blow up a cat 5 storm so will like to see what it says.

also usc looking horrible. nd taking it to them. hope usc loses so vt will move up into second place
yep Lefty...the center of my predicted path..is soth fl...but my cone of uncertainty runs from Port Charlotte southward through Fl. straits similar to Michelle in 2001.
Lefty, the GFDl has been calling for strong cat. 4/5 for several runs now, it's scary.
That places Tornado Lefty and Myself in agreement to a POSSIBLE threat to sw and southernmost Fl. as a possible major hurricane which seems most likely on the intensity.
Not another one!
i hav updated my blog, it inludes my td 24 forecast
If the trough doesn't dig far enough south and misses it...the Northern Yucatan isn't out of the woods yet..but its looking like the biggest threat is to sw and extreme south Fl.
This one reminds me (a little) of hurricane Irene. (1999). For those that are interested and don't know the track for Irene, check out this Link
I think I wil do the same Turtle..hav'nt updated mine since last night.
be bk guys
Do you guys think the panhandle is in the clear?
Masters has a new posting
This is great people. I leave to do some work (I am at work today) and all I asked before I left is that SE Fla stay out of Wilma's way....but noooooo....all those cutsey outdoor items I finally put back outside where they belong last week may have to come back inside next week....

Really, thanks to all of you that kept up with this and put your postings and predictions. I get a kick reading all of your predictions. With the way this year has gone; nothing is too wild to not come true....
Will keep lurking...