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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

No threats in the tropics today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:06 PM GMT on September 03, 2005

The new KatrinaBlog

The new KatrinaBlog for all Katrina-related discussions is worth continuing for a few more days. I know it is not an ideal solution and creates some problems for those who wish to communicate about everyting that is going on, but given the volume of posts I think we should continue this separation a while longer. Today, I am featuring a guest blogger on the KatrinaBlog--my wife, who is an emergency physician who will be on her way to the Gulf next week for a two-week shift wherever she's needed. I have also asked another wunderground blogger to assist me in managing and posting to the KatrinaBlog; this blog deserves more time and energy than one person (me) can provide. Again, this is an experiment that may fail, and your feedback is important on judging the success of this effort.

No TD 15
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to look unimpressive as it tracks westward at 15 mph. However, the wave is beginning to work its way farther north away from the equator, which might help it get the extra spin needed to develop. We'll have to continue to watch this wave. It could start to develop when it gets closer to the Leeward Islands on Monday or Tuesday, where low wind shear and warm waters should be conducive to develpment.

Development by the Bahamas
Clouds have continued to slowly increase in an area of disturbed weather near and east of the Bahamas. Wind shear is still too high today for a tropical depression to form, but as the wind shear continues to decrease the next few days, something could develop in this region. The latest GFS model run shows that any storm that develops in this area would move slowly, and might push towards the Carolinas.

Tropical Storm Maria
Maria appears on her way to becoming the 5th hurricane of this unbelievable hurricane season. However, we are going to get lucky with this 13th storm of the season. Maria is tracking northward over open ocean, and has little chance of impacting any land areas. For those keeping track, Maria is the earliest 13th named storm ever, beating the record set in 1933, when the 13th tropical storm formed on September 8.
We're not quite halfway though hurricane season yet; historically, the halfway point comes September 10.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The KatrinaBlog is working to separate Katrina posts from other Tropics stuff, so I'd keep it up. There are a few "bad apples", but I think we've been managing all right. Mostly it's a blame game, and I know how those end (they don't).

I did post a couple of questions on the blog that I'm afraid won't get answered... one of them keying in on how Charley of last year and Katrina of this year were different, and if our government's responses now were going to be geared to more of a Charley-like storm. Clearly Katrina was not Charley -- how so? (There were also questions regarding sustained wind and storm surge, and how the size of a storm affects storm surge).
i anybody here? any thoughts on a bahama storm moving in on the carolinas
I saw the damage of Charley and Ivan first hand and this looks similar to Ivan than Charley (Charley was a strengthening cat 4 and Ivan was a weakening cat 3). The similarity is this - Ivan was a cat 5 for a while and I think the last thing to be affected by the weakening of a hurricane is the storm surge. So you can have a cat 3 storm that has cat 5 storm surge levels. Charley only carried with it a cat 1 or 2 surge (which never really materialized either) so all the damage there was from the wind.
Big difference having just damage from the wind and damage from wind and surge. I think Katrina was probably a cat 3 storm with cat 5 surge that hit a vulnerable spot.

an early model I saw took the storm off the Bahamas moving in the general direction of the Bahamas but not making landfall. Personally I think the further south it develops, the more likely it is to follow Katrina into the gulf. If that happens, though I think it will find a path more west - probably TX-LA border or maybe even Galveston. It is a stiuation to watch, but it is still early.
There's nothing actually there now that indicates anything like a low-pressure center... just persistent convection moving SW. Doesn't look like today will be the day for TD 15/16. NHC sees two surface lows and one mid-level low, but also says anything will be slow to develop.
Good point, MGrid.

I'd thought about the possibility that surge at its highest point is maintained, even if the strength of the hurricane driving it fades. For whatever reason I don't remember Ivan's surge height.

This brings us to pressure vs. windspeed. The 175 mph value was later discounted (somewhat) and reduced to 165 because "DATA FROM
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 145 KT." I don't know why that ratio would change, so I can't tell for sure what that means.

Archive is here for further reference.

At this point, I then also have to ask... can we really assume Camille had 190 mph+ winds? Or that the Labor Day Hurricane of the 1900's had 200mph+ winds? Or were these figures carried on as a byproduct of the sensationalism of the event?

(Before I hit the "Post" button, I will grant that Camille was a smaller storm. But the widespread devastation of Katrina, who landfalled at 145mph, still makes me wonder... were windspeeds back then measured accurately, or are they just not a good figure to lean on when estimating how much damage will take place?)
Hey guys here is the morning update. Broad low pressure still trying to get its act together near the Bahamas, right now this low pressure is weak and large extending from the coast of Florida to the Bahamas.....Link....Shear is still high here, but will get better by Monday so we may see this area develop then. The current GFS still has this system moving slowly NW towards the coast of Florida then N towards the Carolinas, the GFS has be very consistent with this feature, if the shear does decrease I think we may see some of sort of system here by Mon/Tues. Elsewear Maria may become a hurricane today but is well out to sea and will not threaten any land. Current track....Link

700 MB?????

Please Explain That.
In Dr. Bob Sheets and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount:

On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen."

So, the 190 mph estimate of winds in Camille was an estimate of winds that were off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carry, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph. (I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980's, and the books are still sometimes used today). In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level (700mb or 10,000 feet), so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.

Jeff Masters
Dr. Masters,
where did you get that image of the computer models for the possible TD15?

I'm in Southeast LA a little west of MSY and we're still getting everythign back in order so I have to keep a close eye on this one.

I can't find models for that storm on this site, so if you could post a link to where you got it I'd appreciate it.
Dr. Masters,
where did you get that image of the computer models for the possible TD15?

I can't find models for that storm on this site, so if you could post a link to where you got it I'd appreciate it.

Our software creates those images when the preliminary model runs come in, but at present I haven't figured out a good way to get this up on the web site, other than to post them on my blog. I generally don't delete them from my old blog entries, so you can go back to the last place I included the tracking map and still find it there. The update for what I thought would be TD 15 was at 1pm yesterday, though, so this wave is no longer considered a suspect area worthy of running the tracking models on.

I believe the Navy has the preliminary model runs on their web site, too.

--Dr. Jeff Masters
Thanks for giving us these forums Jeff.

I have a question about the high that steers these systems to the W. There seems to be much less activity in the Carolinas in the past couple of years. Is there a reason for this and what is expected for the remainder of the year?
It's very overcast and "thunderstormy" in Nassau today. I am still watching the area of clouds nearby; but I have yet to hear it the one to our east or the one one to our north has the best chance of development? Any opinions ?

BTW, just saw that our little country is donating to the disaster reief ... all of you are in our prayers and thoughts.
good morning

storm there is a massive area of high pressure building in behind that cold front that passed a couple days ago. your and my weather will be clear and pretty nice
and about the steering of the storms stormj its just patterns that we see. for the past 2 years the steering currents have ben towards the gulf. with that high i mentioned building in it will block any storm from turning out to sea in the short term and that puts the carolinas in to the threat area but will a storm come along. who knows
Is this a trend though, I geuss that is what I was getting at.
Trend as in expect to see this for several years?
naw, just the pattern and you know weather has no timetable. the rest of the season and the next 5 years could have the carolinas under the gun. but its good to remember that the carolinas are protected by those ridges and troughs and i guess we just been lucky. it has been what 17-18 years since hugo
yea. Then Gaston last year
maria will probly be a hurricane in 24-36 hrs but looks like only a threat to bermuda. we will need to watch the bahammas for any development as this could possibly affect sc.

also keeping my eye itcz low and the next impressive wave comming offof africa. i dofeel we will have nate somewhere in the next 3-5 daYS
gaston wasn'tmuch though lol
i had a dream 2 nights ago i was at the beach chasing a hurricane so we will see lol
Have to go start the freezer defrosting. Running out of room for frozen two liter bottles due to ice build up. See ya'll later.
lefty, WHAT beach??? ::G::
lol catch u later stormj
weather here in so FL kinda crummy, would be nice if it develops as strong enuff to push whatever east of Bahamas out to fishies
i dunno lol. i was in the middleof it when i woke up. was a wierd one though. dreams are hard to gather details out of but i always try to watch things i fream about
i can't gte my models to run so i am a little blind but i think it will move north of florida and it could come ashore near sc or nc it it is not pushed out to sea. we will def need to watch this one though
hey, just so long as it isn't a south fl beach ::wink:: we just got bulk debris picked up today, city is very efficient, but south part of city is still a mess and rest of dade county a messy, wet yuck. Of course, up against NO... we are blessed.
oh i feel ya cg
let's pray that Kat took the punch out of land-falling hurricanes, maybe the weather gods will say that was enough? neither carolina needs it either, they are pitching in. of course, this is terrible science on my part LOL
will check out Kat blog and then try to do some work... gotta earn those dollars... ::sigh::
Has anyone heard from stormtop??????????
you are really good at pissing me off huh storm
no word from stormtop yet. he might not have a way ro get on yet. atleast thats what i hope
and storm i hate you very much
weatherboyfsu stormtop has not posted anywhere since Katrina landed--of course with power out that makes things difficult. Here on the GA coast we are watching the disturbed weather gathering offshore.. what do you make of it?
Its kind of scary.....if you look back exactly a week ago.....we had one of the strongest hurricanes ever seen by man in the gulf of mexico......the magnitude of what just happened has been sinking in all week........Its really hard to cope with a situation such as this......and this is directed to the people who could of gotten out if they wanted to..........so many people told these people to get out, and a lot of people did not listen.........one thing that I remember was Jim Cantore on the Weather Channel reporting sunday night from the military retirement facility......He said that the biggest difference that he notice about the evacuation was that in florida last year the cities would have been ghost towns 12 hours ago unlike here where people are still driving around.........that pretty much sums this catastrophe up in an nutshell..........
it needs to be watch very carefully,,,,,its a prime area starting monday as the shear dies down........Also I can guarantee that the next landfalling hurricane....people will evacuate their butts out quickly........
Looks like Maria is going significantly west of forecast. Do you think there is going to be a Bermuda hit?
She is going wnw?
Dr. Masters,

Thank you for your quick and very insightful response. Observing such storms firsthand (and hearing their recollections) sounds very fascinating indeed.

Out of curiosity, is the 700 mb level fixed at 10,000 feet, or does it change with atmospheric conditions? I see lots of maps that say "Temperature at 850 mb", and then some others that depict where the "800 mb level" is. It gets confusing sometimes!
LpAngelRob wrote:

> were windspeeds back then measured accurately ...?

Dr. Masters replied that he thought the value for Camille was likely valid. In fact, earlier ground level windspeed estimates based on flights tended to be underestimated. Andrew was upgraded from category 4 to 5 at landfall because of this, ten years after. Other storms are being reviewed. Valence dug up this page for me: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/NOAA_pr_8-21-02.html
I wonder about if there is a possiblity of a hurricane coming out of the bahamas convection. Dr. Masters says that anything would move slowly towards the carolinas. Could it turn into a minimal hurricane as it moves over warm waters?
I am on the east coast of Florida. I was just looking at the long range radar from Melbourne and Miami. Showers here are moving NE to SW and just west of the Bahamas they are moving to the SE. Looks like a broad area of low pressure may be forming up to the SE of the state.
I think is is about due time for Carolina to get one. I don't want it here BUT I would rather it come here than see those in the Gulf suffer a smiggen more. We've been lucky this season so far but fear that the luck will run out and this season will bring us some kind of tropical system.

- C
That's what I've been thinking. The high is in position to put the carolina coast at risk IF a storm comes along.
lol i am pusjing for a carlonia storm cause i want to chase atleast one this year. did not chase any last year as i will not go past sc. we will see
leftyy, should have been down here last year
where is down here
melbourne, florida
Lefty, what are the odds of something coming out of the bahama area?
Can anyone give the updated gfs link, I accidentaly deleted the one I have.
yeah i wanted to go but the wife does not want me going and being so far. we satruck up an agreement i would go to sc,nc and anywhere in va. thats the only way she would agree to let me go. sucks buyt uu gotta keep the women happy lol

most models form a system and it tracks close to the sc/nc coast befor turning northeast out to sea. will def have to watch that area
lefty i live in jacksonville nc, sounds like you r near. if this thing forms and comes this way it dosent seem it would have time to get much stronger than a cat 1 at best. do you agree
yeah i don't see anything more than a cat1 and those are the bst to chase. u can get right down on the beach and surge is not much of a concern
All this Camille, and underestimated windspeeds from old storms is very interesting. Makes me think even more that maybe hurricane dog of 1950 was the strongest we've ever seen.

Also, anyone looking at this crazy huge wave about to come off Africa?
What will they call the 27th named storm, Aaron?
something is going to form in the bahamas
I believe they go Greek with naming
after the human names are spent.
chatting about the tropics and two T.V.s with college football on.....I would say that makes for a good afternoon.
I see that wave Carbo. It's impressive looking.
Do you have any long range prognostication?
Rose there are not 26 names in the Atlantic only 21 or 22 I think. After that they go to Alpha names. Alpha Beta etc. Greek alphabet. Think fraternitier.
Sorry meant Ross.
GFS link for 007...Link...Concerning possible development in Bahamas, here in NE Florida we may be under a wind advisory along the coast starting Monday...With high to the north and low developing near the Bahamas they are expecting 25 to 35 mph winds and 7 to 9 ft surf..Should start to see some beach erosion beginning, classic Noreaster conditions should begin for us here by monday.
I agree with the nor'easter for NE Florida. Should bring us some welcome relief from the oppressive heat of this summer. Concerning the low, I just read the discussion pages of all NWS offices in Florida and they seem to agree with the low as well but have no idea on movement. Some say west toward the peninsula and some have it moving northeast through a small weakness in the high to the north. Has anyone seen more definite info regarding this possible low development?
i was reading the same thing EJ. i think it really depends on where it will form. More NE of bahamas it may track more northward and could come close to carolinas. closer to Florida coast it may end up moving more NW and come into Florida..the GFS has been showing this complex senerio for the last few days with two low pressure systems
yes cannot wait for the relief...Breezes starting today, its starting to get better..finally..lol..
Two low pressure systems seem a little fishy.
Do you agree? Also weatherguy, I noticed you used
us and NE Florida in the same post.Are you in JAX?
With the shortening days, can we expect that the very warm water that fueled Katrina will be cooling down? Or would that not happen until after the equinox?
weatherguy I posted this morning how much better it felt when I went to get my fishwrapper called the Times Union.
It felt like early May to me.
Ben, the water is hot and deep. Probably not cooling until after the equinox. The water off the east coast of Florida probably will not drop below 70F until December!
Lefty- I hear the carolinas mentioned with this thing off the Florida coast, but most seem to be talking about a Florida crossing or a NE out to sea track. Are the carolinas realistic chance right now?
Hey ej i am in St. Augustine. Yes it was very nice this morning, even this afternoon by the pool..Fishwrapper the Times Union..lol..i am looking at it right now..lol
Yeah the two lows do seem fishy. it may be we just have a trough of low pressure out there, with no real development. We have that alot of times off the coast here as you know ej
Weatherguy watch out for two-syllabol words they are hard to come by. lol
LOL..I knew it was Sept. when i woke up this morning, nice breeze, alittle cooler and the Gators start there season today. Cant get any better then that.
Without Spurrier 03! HAHA!

Sorry very off topic there.
Only if the Gators LOSE and Noles WIN will it
get better!!!..lol.. I will be in Tallahassee for the game as I hold season tickets. I can't wait for the great weather as well as they are expecting low humidity and below seasonal temps! The only fly in the ointment would be the GFS solution for the low east of the Bahamas bringing it to Florida and making things wet. Yuck!
LOL>>Junkie..thats ok alittle football talk never hurt anyone. oh your a Seminole..lol..Oh well go CANES!!!! Yes weather should be great in Tally.
Here was the 12Z uk....Link..moving that possible system NE behind Maria.
Good link weatherguy. It seems to "cozy up" to the SE coast from Florida to Carolina before moving on out.
A S.Carolina landfall seems possible.
I guess you have to take computer models with a grain of salt as the GFDL had the wave near 9N developing into a major hurricane approaching the leeward islands instead it lost most of its convection. Any thoughts on why this happened?
1) Go Noles!!!!
2) I can't wait for the season to begin!
3) Spurrier looks great in his new cock colors.
4) Good luck Gator fans... on what you would consider one of your tough games of the season! HA.
5) Go Noles!!!
6) This hurricane season is unbelievable. I say Down with the CANES!!!!!
Amen Stormnut!!

I expect development monday evening into a depression.
ej- Lefty has made a point that the GFDL is storm specific. I think that the GFDL for Maria shows that system on the edge of the graphical model. Thus the model was geared around maria and not the wave at 9n. Therfore it could not be expected to be accurate.
hey ej, i think that storm weakened because it didnt gain enough latitude. it was stuck below 10N. Just found out Ron Zook just beat my alma mata Rutgers in OT in his first game at Illinois. Zook is still creating havoc for me..lol..Ok sorry last football reference..See ya all later.
Thanks Stormjunkie. I didn't realize that. Thanks for the info.
Stormj, What do you think?
Later weatherguy.
my blog has been updated.

What does this mean?
007..Looks like cyclogenesis probabilities for both basins.
dunno to me looks it like a place where waves got the best chance to develop
1006 mb low by tomorrow? The gfs predicts it.

I like where the GFS has it. That would probably mean a trek behind Maria.
Based on water temps, there is a chance of development.

I try not to think too much about them until they are a TD 007. I think the models handle them better once it is a system. Still in wait and see mode as far as I can tell.
007 Based on water temps you could have something developp from the coast of DC down to the yucatan and over to AFrica. lol.
True stormj, I don't really trust the models either before a system develops but I just want to explore the possibilities and wait and see. For all we know, it may do nothing or turn into a hurricane. You never know.
Weatherwatcher007......I don't mean to be confrontational....but I do have a question. I only ask because you make many predictions.
Do you have any formal meteorological training at all? If so, could you please elaborate.
Just have to wait and see.
quick update yall, i be back on laster

ts maria. she continues to get better orfinised and the center is very clearly visible on microwave data with a wall of convection starting to wrap around the center. i expect her to reach cat 1 strength in 12-24 hrs.

must watch the broad low trof off of the florida coast. some models take this sytem that develops north towards the sc/nc border befor she is kicked out by the next shortwave. this sytem will not have anychance to develop for another 24-48 hrs as the shear is incredibly high right now.

also continueing to watch the wave with low centered in the itcz. this system has been lacking convection but the wave is visible on sat imgs. some models form a cyclone from this sytem after she passes the islands and enters the carribean. this area must be watched as she might have an impact on the gulf if development would to occur.

also another nice wave comming off of africa and some models including the latest gfs forms a cyclone from that wave in 5 days.
I don't take any offense CosmicEvents. I don't have any formal degree or meteorological training(although I am thinking about going back to school to get a degree). I do however have a lot of experience in monitoring the weather. Now I am not as good as Dr. Masters or Steve but I do try to explore ALL the possibilities before posting any comments and I try to interpret all the information I gather objectively. I call it like I see it.
18Z GFS in...Link..Still showing something trying to develop off coast of Florida and Bahamas.
I appreciate the honest response weatherwatcher. Your level of knowledge sounds comparable to my own. Personally, that being the case I refrain from making predictions, but obviously it's a blog, and we all have the choice to post whatever we want. I gather my information and make decisions based on info from the NHC, Dr. Masters/Steve Gregory, and to a very very minor extent what I read on this blog. Sometimes, the info learned on this blog can be of use. Like when LaDobeLady reported 2 weeks ago that the ants were building there mounds higher than usual, and that local lore said this was a sign of a coming big storm. She lives 35 miles from New Orleans.
The armchair predictions I read here I take with a large grain of salt anyway...but they can be disturbing at times, like 10 days ago when you commented in bold type about how conditions were ripe for a Cat5 storm coming right down my driveway. And after Katrina these are very anxious times all over hurricane prone areas.
I said Aug 18 that td 10 had a chance to regenerate. I did not think it would be a monster until I saw it move wsw over FL in 7 hours. From then on I thought in the back of my head-This is bad- We all knew the longer it stayed over the 90+ degree water temps in the Gulf the more of a chance it had to become a monster. I never thought I would see this kind of devestation though.

If the convection survives tonight, it could develop into something. This year the models have either underestimated or overestimated the strength of the ridges and trofs so the track could go either way. We have to wait and see if anything develops and then we can get a better handle on track and intensity.
Looking at satellite pictures, it is a mess east of Florida. Shear will have to decrease markedly to have anything develop in my opinion.

this is funny
hi ya'll, just me...I'll be in and out quickly...I think my east coast will be pretty quiet for at least another 5-8 days...nobody seems to be to overly excited about much, which is a GOOD THING...just curious...anybody heard from stormtop?
Hey weatherguy I'm experiencing NE breezes at this hour. Do you think this is a product of high pressure to the north being strong or low pressure developing east of Florida or a combination of both?
A real knee-slapper turtle.
yes ej i'm more inland than you, breezy here too
Where are you aquak?
old ortega/wesconett
ej its more a product of the high pressure to the north being very strong. But as low pressure begins to develop these winds will begin to increase by Monday. Right now more of a coastal problem with beach erosion, but also the Jax NWs hinted at heavy rain and flooding possible for mid-week, as you know we can get some directional shear off the coast which can bring alot of rain in with these noreaster conditions.
Everyone, I have to go. I think we'll see a new depression labor day near the bahamas. Don't panic it may not develop at all.

Oh yeah turtlehurricane, I'm African-American and I did not think the link was all that funny.

Not being rude or anything but try to be more sensitive to the situation.
aquak,you are as inland as I am....
I live in Ortega as well. Hello neighbor.
greetings, neighbor.
So, I guess no one's heard from stormtop? :(

I will keep hoping.

And praying.
Aquak, I had a tree fall on my house and A/C unit when the wind shifted from N.E. to S.E. as Jeanne moved N.W. I was without A/C for three months after the storm. I know this is petty compared to Katrina damage but A/C in Florida is no pick-nik.
Power in Stormtop's area is nonexistant. I'm sure he is OK but has bigger fish to fry than posting to this blog. I think we can all understand and respect this. We all pray for his return.
Last visible of Maria- huge outflow
Maria is a well organized lady.
I am thankful to God for everything I have. Even AC. Everytime I grab my fridge handle, I am thankful. For as filthy as I get mowing the yard and weed-eating, I am thankful. But yes, no AC would be a bummer--take a shower and come out sweating. ( I think this is probably the wrong blog for this, so I'll stop--my apologies to sqotb)
Gut instinct tell me the east coast of Fla is in good shape for at least 10-16 days. I feel safe, and the stars are calming in the sky.
007- I'm white cauc I fail to see the humor too. It looks like food. If it was me i'd be doing the same thing.
I agree on your gut instinct of a clear two week period for Florida. There is no science to back up this claim but Florida has paid its dues the last two years and the law of averages has to be on our side in the short term.
What does everyone think of that wave near the equator. It looks kind of unimpressive to me, but Dr. Masters seems to think it has a chance.
KS are you referring to the one around 40W?
Every time you flip a coin the odds are 50-50.
Yeah that was the one, I forgot the exact coordinates.
They all have a chance. That one needs to gain some longitude to spin up due to the coreolis effect
A 50/50 chance killdevil?
Yea 50% chance of heads, 50% chance of tails. I hope I'm right
Sorry I should have been clear. I was refering to your assessment of the wave development.

Oh, sorry, that system looked ripe a few days ago but it drifted a little south. When they get close to the equater they have a hard time developing according to Dr. Masters.
It has to do with the rotation of the earth and they need that help to get rotation started. I think it was him that said he never saw anything develop south of 8 degrees. It bears watching when it gets a little farther north, it was big when it came off Africa.
140. IKE
Per Weatherwatch007..."Oh yeah turtlehurricane, I'm African-American and I did not think the link was all that funny.

Not being rude or anything but try to be more sensitive to the situation.".....

Just because the guy is black? Unbelievable!!!!
Weatherwatcher.....the post that I was referring to was this one:

Posted By: Weatherwatcher007 at 3:32 AM GMT on August 25, 2005.
I have to go but think about this. I just looked at the GDFL model and it has Katrina over south florida and hitting as a cat 4 hurricane near cat 5. Now before you rip me to shreads I have to say as a lawyer there is no evidence that makes that impossible. If you look at Steves blog you will see that the water depth is deep enough to support this. Dr. Masters said that there is a 57 percent chance of this happening. There is a new burst of deep convection around the core suggesting rapid development. The NHC said that rapid intensification by the GDFL is not impossible and that the GDFL has been the most reliable so far. Also, the dry air is gone, the convection is organized and there is already an eye. I don't know but this may be (I hate it with a passion but I have to say it)another Andrew situation. My other family is down there and I have told them to get out of town, I just can't see why this can't happen. 15 years ago today, a hurricane of catastrophic proportions hit south florida. It started out as a weak depression and traversed the atlantic as a weak storm. When it was all said and done it was a cat 5 and THE most costly storm ever. 15 years later after that monster, the exact same area is under attack once again. I'm sorry to say but we MAY be on the eve of another Andrew situation (God forbid) I will be praying for everyone is Florida.
that system near 40w worries me. It will be reaching warmer water soon and will probably edge north as well, negating the coreolis effect that is hindering it now. I don't know enough about what will steer it after that and it is probably too soon to predict anyway. The immediate concern is what is going on near the Bahamas.
It reminds me of Ivan. :(
Easy Ike... Don't let it get to you.
The tricky part about these waves that are so far South is that they will make it to a certain point in longitude and fire up with convection. Usually it is due to warmer waters or decreasing shear as Dr. Masters suggested. Climatologically, a wave of this nature would normally have an increase in convection about 500 miles East of the Leeward Islands, followed by designation as a tropical depression just before making it to the Leewards.
looks like South Florida should be fine until the middle of the month link BUT we need to keep an eye to our East.
Maria to Bermuda? any thoughts?
H79- What likely path do you think it will take when it goes through the Leewards or is it even worth speculating this early? I'm a novice but it looks to me like arriving that far south going into the Caribean and Gulf would be most likely. The whole area there looks confused to me and I'm having trouble interpeting what would steer it at that point.
I am seeing several computer models developing a low over the Central Bahamas by Labor daya and moving it WNW towards the Florida Peninsula. We need to wait and see it materialize though.
the wave in the Atlantic will keep moving just North of due West, mainly because of the Easterly Tropical trade winds that cross the Atlantic this time of year. Until the system deepens, or organizes, there will be no significant Northerly movement. So, the later this system develops, if it does, then the further West it will be.
the ukm brings it close to east FL in about 42 hours. we do indeed need to watch.
152. Fast5
WeatherWatcher007, congradulations on your Duel Citizenship.
When did you become a Citizen of America?
At what strength southbeach does the ukm show?
Any worries?
H79Correct me if I'm wrong but if there were no steering currents at all, and the system developed (rotation), then that rotation would in itself cause the system to tend to the north?
It looks as if there maybe two possible lows forming , 1 sooner than the other, from the area East of the Bahamas. The first is near 25N 68W. That area could develop as soo as Sunday night. The other area, over the Bahamas, may develop by Tuesday. The area further East, at 68W would not affect the US. The area over the Bahamas most likely would. There is no telling at this point what any intensity would be. The systems would have to organize more first.
How about it 79. I think one low will consolidate. Can't imagine two lows prospering. Go Jackets!!!!
If there were no steering currents at all, in theory, yes. It is nearly impossible to have absolutely no steering currents. At the same time, if there are nearly no steering currents, and other Ridges/Troughs nearby affecting the steering currents very near the system, then the storm could in fact not move at all
kill deveil thats not correct. it would drift nw due to corrilus forces. or wnw but not due north
based on the surface anylasis and the most recent models runs here is my prediction for the area off the florida coast.

there are 2 lows one at 1010 and another 1008. the 1008 low locate at 28n65w is stationary and located on the tail end of the old cold fron that moved off the us coast. that area of low pressure will retrograde as the second 1010 low deepens and forms a closed cirulation. this system will move nw or nnw as it develops and right now appears to skirt the us coast as the ridge to its north is weakend and retrogrades due to a strong shortwave moving thru the northern us. models have this sytem moving nne at that time. i don't belive that will happen and the system may move slowly north or north west for a time till another shortwave in 3-5 days comes and sweeps it out.
hey leftty where do you think the 1010 is located at the present time?
but all in all it is a very complex system and the strength of the ridge, the shortwave and the developing cyclone will determine what happens. also location of the developing cyclone is also pretty important as to its strength and iteraction with land. some models have a stronger ridge than others and a stronger shortwave. in my opinion is belive a weak ts will make landfall near the sc/nc border befor be swept back out to sea. we will know alot more by sunday night or monday and after more models runs
Thanks a lot lefty... So in other words the SE coast can expect a rainy and windy week ahead?
the surface anyalasis shows the center o h1010 low located at 26n 71 w
yeah i belive sc and nc will see some afromthis sytem. how much of affect is hard to tell at this pont as the speed and motion is not known and some models take longer to form the cyclone than others. like i said very complex but we will know more in 48 hrs
I must have read his question wrong regarding no currents, it would drift NW. It just doesnta happen that often.
Thanks, thought it was aliitle north of that but i guess its been dropping south during the day a bit. Should be interesting, I think if the one closer to the Florida coast develops it will get very close to the coast before moving N or NE just as you stated, but will probably be weak. looking foward to some rainy and breezy weather here, plus i can get out the boogie board..lol..
I am glad that it will not be a Florida event if lefty's prognostication is correct. All Floridians root for lefty!!!
Since on the topic of stationary, Although the NHC states that the area East o Florida is deemed "stationary", there is a strong ridge over the Eastern Half of the Us that is forecast to move towards the NE Coast in the next 48 to 96 hours, essentially blocking anything from making it to the Carolinas during that timeframe. When that ridge weakens starting in about 5 days, then a system could move that direction. But with tat ridge in place at days 2 to 4, any developing system will begin to move to the West
yeah, its a complex system and i am not so sure the models really know what to do with here and she might just drift for a 3 days or so and that might give her a chance to develop more. its going to come down to that ridge to here north and how strong it is
Yes 79 i think it may be one of those heading towards florida events and then makes the move more N and NE. it will be moving very slowly, anything that does develop, so byt the time day 4 comes it will start turning more N or NE...maybe..lol..
oh yeah leftyy, who knows..lol..We may have nothing..lol..I've seen to many times living here in Florida with this situation and nothing happens, but we will see..
Letting your guard down weatherguy?
i dunno 79, the forcast is for the ridge to weaken and most models show that and the ridge won't move south for 4-5 days. by that point i belive she would have drifted north as the steering currents will be weak
that ridge is centered in way up in canada and will spilt and part will move south towards nc and the second part will move east
Keep in mids that I am talking about 2 different low pressure areas developing to the East of florida, one closer to the Bahamas than the other.
WG03, Lefty, this is good speculation right now, we are not relying on any real tropical computer models. This is how good forecaster should be.
the latest gfs run also shows the ridge weaking in 2-3 days as it moves south and the developing system moving along the coast and comming on shore around nc and than moving ne
Nah ej after last year my guard is always up..lol...
yeah 79 but all models retrograde the second low as it becomes enveloped in the trof pushing east and some models even have that low and spinning it into ts maria
Lefty, the only problem with the GFS, is that it has been initially too weak on ridges this year. Ex: It took a few days before it decided to end its right of biased track for Katrina. Tis is when she was not an intense system
Ok, then we are referring to the same low when in regards to the US. I do see a low right now near 68W 25N. That low will follow Maria; The low that we are unsure about has not quite developed yet.
there are actually 3 lows per the surface anylasis. the one at 26w 71w will develop intot he system of interest. after looking at the gfs some more she will form right off the florida coast and will skirt the florida coast and she will be moving quite slow. when the next short wave comes thru and finishes weaking thar ridge will willmove due north and stregthen and make landfall near the nc/sc border befor moving ne out to sea. but thats just what the gfs shows. i am still up in the air over if she evens forms right now
Sorry, need to walk the dog, before it destroys my laptop. BRB in 10 min.
yeah walk the dog. its such a complex situation 79. i am having a hard time grasping it myself lol. but my prediction is a corolina landfall if at all. when you get back i want to hear what you think is going to happen. might help clear it up for me lol
lefty, how confident r u that something that gets actual tropical charaterists forms there. afterall i have seen a lot of storms on the modles this year that amounted to nothing and also a lot of nothing that developed into something. it seems untill we see some t-storms around a dominent surface low this could just be another storm that never exhisted. your thoughts
Ok I am back. I made an overlay for the current shortwave satellite image. It will show the trough (Noted by the curved red line). And, the 2 dominant low level centers. The best defined being the one to the East. The one to the left, could develop, based on computer models.Link

The steering currents are best shown by the Unisys Analysis in 48 hours: Link
These are the shallow steering currents, but as of what we see now as far as organization, that is the best I can use. If we see a stronger syustem develop, then I will use a deeper layer.

What are your thoughts?
i am not sure about the development of a system yet but can't ignore the modles. the steering currents will weaken thru the next 3 days and what ever forms will drift towards the fl ga border befor turning into sc or shirting the coast. i just don't feel confident on anuthing forming as of yet. i like you map and it was exactly what i was picturing in my head.
79 if you could read my last entry, and give me your thoughts
what i do feel confident on is that what ever forms will drift for a few days as that ridge will weaken and the weak steering currents will weaken even more till the next shortwave comes and pulls her out to sea
lowpressure, the storms around the low center at 68 W may never develop, but it is looking more impressive on satellite images as time goes by. The system that could develop near the Bahamas, may never develop, and is speculated by computer models. My main reasoning for any system developing near the Bahamas is that the models were correct about 1 of the 2 lows developing bewteen Florida and Bermuda thus far.
yeah 79 thats my feeling about this as well.time will tell and we should know if it will happen by monday.
lefty,,, today you mentiond a trop. storm or a cat one as the good ones to chase and i agree. im not sure where you r but it seems you r close to the nc coast. i know you as an atlest experanced observer (i say because imnot sur if you have a weather degree or just have learnd a great deal over years) would no advise people to head to the coast during a storm, however i was wondering if you know the layout of the NC coast from morhead city to wilminton. andnif so is that area safe from strom surge with only a cat. 1 for another experanced observer.
not to familiar with the nc coast to much but the water there is deep unlike the gulf areas so a cat 1, i would not expect a surge anymore than 8-10 ft if that much
BTW, the larger feature, the trough, is centered at 26N 71W, the tropical features will spin off in areas West and East of the trough.
isabel which made landfall near morehead and was a cat 2 only had a 7-8ft storm surge

Anyone think much will come of this Low? Water temsp in the GOM are still pretty high even though the certian terrmible hurricane recently went through.
for lefty or 79.... in a broad area of low pressure as off the FL coast, is ther any corolation between a meso low that could form from a large area of t-storms and where and actual well defind surface low forms??
From looking at the slope of the continental shelves, the worst storm surges should be from the mouth of the Mississippi, Eastward through the West Coast of Florida. The East Coast would not experience as extreme of a storm surge.
Yes, a meso low would be at the mid levels, and a low level low at the surface. Ex: From the early times of Katrina, many of us thought there was a mid level center North of Puerto Rico. I moved slowly West for a few days, finally, when enough storms persisted near the mid level center, that a low level center formed.
i remember isabelle and you r right that does bring it into prespective here for me. i am only 17 miles inlad so ido get concerned and excited, although i dont want devistation... thanks for remembering that
no the shear is high and the steering currents take it into mexico in 2-3 days cancun. development is highley unlikely
its cool man. i was at va beach for thw landfall of isabeal and i remebred it was not as big of a surge i thought it would be, but it still did plenty of beach erroison
caneguy, there does appear to be a weak area of low pressure in the SW Gulf, but is pushing SW in response to the high pressure to its North. It will slowly move SW over the next 72 hours, then may turn NW. Something to possibly watch in the 3 to 5 day range
New NHC outlook is out. Does not shed too much light,but may prompt the Navy to issue a new Invest Model solution
The upper level trough over 62W is well defined. I may change my perspective in the areas West of 62W as long as that trough persists. It is unusual for a trough that strength this time of year, and, any ridge downstream or upstream would be amplified.

Sorry if I offended anyone by my comments, I will man up to them and apoligize I just did not think it was funny at all. As a black-american, I thought there has been some bias in the media BUT that is to be discussed at another time and another place. Race had nothing to do with the delay of supplies in NOLA.

As for the tropics. . .
Maybe there is a circulation forming lefty to the east of the bahamas. . .

I thought I could have gotten a better link but I'm in a hurry. I think thm models have been inaccurate sometimes when predicting the strength of a trof or ridge of high pressure so anything concerning track is possible. As for intensity, it is WAY too early to predict.

This is my last comment for tonight and I am sorry if I offended anyone in my comments earlier. Just something to think about.
007, not too many on this blog right now so it seems.
hey hurr79 i posted this earlier in the other blog. What do you use to make your overlays?
The earlier overlay I made was from GOES.
I've been on the outer banks since 1988 and stayed for every storm. I live 3.5 miles back from the beach on an island on Albemarle sound. During Floyd I'm not sure what the storm surge officually was but the water behind my house rose to about el. 4.5', the highest I have ever seen it. This was surge in a sense but not from the ocean. The large volume of water in the Albemarle, Pamlico and Currituck Sounds,(all one body of water) doesn't see much change from ocean tides but the levels are dictated by the wind. When Floyd made landfall the winds were out of the east and northeast. all the water was pushed out of the northern sounds to the south. You could practically walk a mile out into the sound on dry ground. As it passed the wind clocked around SW and blew all the water back up north. I watched the water rise 9 feet in 45 mins. Anywhere near the ocean is not a good place to be. hwy 12 south of oregon inlet gets breached on a regular basis even from noreasters. My place is ground level el. +11' so i may get wet in the future. During floyd inland got hammered bad. there was 2 weeks of steady rain before the storm and when floyd dumped the rivers were already near flood stage. The tar river went 35' over flood stage. My daughter was at college in Greenville and the water went all the way to the eaves. Being anywhere near the ocean or low ground for a hurricane here I wouldn't recommend.
yeah kildevil, ur actualy refering to sloshing. tat is what the term would be when the winds pile the water up like that
Sloshing- taht's a good one, I'll use it.
No i meant what program do you use to make them from..lol..
yeah, the water will pile up one way and when the winds switch it pushes back the other way but it has more force as it is using gravity. if ur going to chase a storm u have to be aware of those things to not get urself stuck in a bad situation.
I don't chase just hunker but I certainly enjoy them.
oh yeah, i was posting that for the guy who was asking me about surge. you have to know ur sorroundings. i have only chased one storm, isabeal, but i have been in a couple when i was younger. i didn't decide to chase storms till 2003 and agreed with my wife to not go to far as she does not like me chasing them at all so i was unable to go to florida last year and it was killing me after the rush i got from isabeal. i can not watch them on tv with out wanting to go run to my car and flying down their lol
i was already to go meet irene , had my bags packed and evrything, than the track shifted and she recurved and i was so mad lol. so if a storm does form off the coast of florida i am sort of wanting it to move inland around sc/nc but that is not why i predcited to go there, my predictions were based on the models. i would like to chase one this year. it be nice lol
Hello all. I'm new to this blog, and to Florida, and have been lurking for awhile. I moved to the gulf side of Florida in time for Charley and the rest. Just wondering....how far inland does a surge normally go? I know there are many variables, but is there some type of average?
how far a surge goes inland depends on the elevation of the land as a surg is a rise in sealevel. so a 20 fuoot surge will move sea level up 20 feet. best bet though is to mive some miles inland if a major hurricane is comming and you live in a low elevated area. there is no avg cause it depends on the land elevation
Lefty, my house is about a mile from the gulf, and I'm sitting at 14.2'. So, if a surge of 15' is predicted, then I'm at risk to get water in the house, and if 22' is predicted, then I'm soaked? Am I doing the math right?
yeah thats about right but not all coastal areas are a vulnerable to surge so if a storm is comming look and see what the surge they predict and leave if evacs are ordered. also make sure u have flood insurance if u own ur home
Thanks for the info. I wonder if any insurance company will write flood insurance now - after New Orleans. We had trouble getting basic insurance because we're so close to the shore. Unquote. Most companies wouldn't even talk to us. I think it's good to look into it though. I appreciate your help.
I want a NC storm too I'm only 100 miles from the coast. Who else is in NC and where at?
dunno but it shouldn't be a problemto get flood insurance as that is actually issued thru ur insuarance company but is inssuarnce from the federal govt. so should not be a problem.

i live in va here but any where from sc to va is my chasing ground lol
Well, if you're sitting at 14' and there's a 12' surge, you may still be soaked.

You may have a 12' surge above a 3' tide.

You may also have wave action above a 12' surge+tide. A gentleman was interviewed on CNN who didn't evacuate from Waveland, I believe. He said he stayed because he knew he was 9' above the predicted 28' max surge, yet his house flooded somewhat - waves made up the difference.

IIRC, the surge indicates the calm water level above the tide level. Leftyy's got the best advice, of course - just get the hell out of the way.

Only FEMA issues flood insurance. I don't believe any private insurers offer flood insurance. I also don't believe there are any restrictions on who can get FEMA flood insurance.
the storm surge wouldn't be too bad on the NC coast the water is shallow I know the layout of the coast I am born and raised in NC and live in Fayetteville/Ft. Bragg which is 100 miles from Wilmington, NC. And hurricane turtle I wasn't offended by that link and I am an african american male 26 yrs of age.
I am in Raleigh
Thanks for the input on getting flood insurance from FEMA. I didn't know that and will definitely look into it. I agree. If one heads our way - I'm gone. I'll watch it from CNN rather than my lanai.
As to the question of how storm size affects storm surge, the simple answer should be the gravitational attraction of objects. Naturally, the larger and more dense the storm the greater vertical pull on the body of water underneath. This combines with the forward speed of the waves, which also reduces gravitational pull.
Considering damage from storm winds the destructive nature of a hurricane has more to do with pulsing winds than sheer windspeed. The longer period of time winds pulse between lower and higher speed the more damage, especially when combined with moisture propelled horizontally at practically the same speed. An examination of how structures are wind-rated with regard to these phenomena might reveal that coastal buildings will not stand nearly as much as is claimed.
Back from the bar!!! Any new developments?
Ah geez, I don't like this...


someone PLEASE give me some kind of explanation that this thing is coming right back to LA.
willdd1979 and dashwildwood,

I know where both of ya'll live I grew up in NC around a small town 20 miles north of Ft. Bragg and know Raliegh well also (having made many of trips their in my youth and having friends in the area). I moved out of the area in 1995.
I saw someone asking about Stormtop. I can tell you that if he is in South La, or Ms, you won't be hearing from him for a while.

They still won't let us into those states.

Good morning everyone. Still holding down the fort Lefty? I saw an apology on here the other day from Cat. Interesting.

Both the NOGAPS and UKM take the area in the bahamas close to the southeast coast in about 108 hours.


What does everyone think?
93 Invest,

The Navy is now tracking the area of convection in the bahamas. Two areas seem to be developing and the shear may relax later on. I can see why the NOGAPS and UKM models develop something tropical now.

have been watching that area too. will they go up the east coast and then out to sea?
We have to look at all possibilities when it comes to this low pressure system off the coast of Florida. Stationary, or slow moving storms are historically hard to predict. This year we have seen development of several storms in this very area, and normally this area is only predominantly active in September and October.

Any storm that gets the chance to churn in this area with low shear is going to get its act together rather quickly, much like Katrina before she made her first landfall in South Florida.

Keep in mind this is the 2005 season and anything can and will happen. More major hurricanes are STILL possible, this time last year Frances was making landfall, and we are already at Maria this year, simply amazing.

yes this year is truely amazing. Have heard 6 more hurricanes ,with 3 being cat 3 or higher.
i cant imagine that storm surge has anything to do with the gravitational attraction between the storm overhead and the sea below. the mass of the water is so much greater than that of the storm that if gravity were the dominant force then the storm would be like an oil slick.

while i dont know the answer my guess would be the air pressure differential between the storm area and the surrounding area. the higher pressure outside the storm would push down harder around the storm allowing water to rise in the center of the storm.

now that i've guessed i'll try to look it up..
after a quick read of a paper modeling storm surges the big effects are wind dragging water and the topological configuration of the basin as the water is push to shore. apparently the topological features of the shoreline are very important as the surges can vary enormously within just a few kilometers.
As for the thing off the east coast of Fl~ Melbourne today is feeling alot more tropical. 81 degrees F comin down US1 at 6am, a steady E wind has picked up, with low clouds flyin from the ENE over head misting rain from seamingly nowhere. The only thing we're missin is the feelin of being able to cut the air with a knife. It is insiteing that nervous feel that David gave me for 5 years or more & those 2 instilled again last year, when ever conditions are feelin ripe for tropical weather.
i hav updated my blog. its an update on the bahamnas situation.
if you look at Miami radar you can see where this system is trying to develop....Link...
Fairhope, Alabama

One part of the surge effect...
What you need to use is the anology of a straw in a glass. The glass has the same amount of water in it but when you create less pressure in the straw the water rises in the straw. Atmospherice Pressure is pushing down on the water - if you reduce this pressure then the water will rise.

The second part is the constant pushing/moving of water from the wind. I live in the Mobile, Alabama area and we have seen the bay extremely high from a hurricane and very low. This water is being displaced from one area to another. On any windy day on the bay one side (depending on east or west wind) will have more water washing on it's banks than the other.