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No new tornado deaths yesterday; Super Typhoon Songda hits Category 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:04 PM GMT on May 26, 2011

The tornado onslaught of 2011 continued over the Midwest yesterday, as dozens of tornadoes touched down, primarily in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Arkansas. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 81 preliminary reports of tornadoes in eleven states. Even California got into the action, with a tornado near Chico causing minor damage. Mercifully, no deaths were reported from yesterday's tornadoes. Too many thunderstorms formed too close to each other to allow strong or violent tornadoes to grow, as the many thunderstorms interfered with each others' organization. The preliminary tornado count for the 5-day outbreak that began Saturday is 243. Preliminary tornado reports are an overestimate, since some storms get counted multiple times. These over-counts were 35% - 40% in the case of the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak and April 25 - 28 Super outbreak, so we can expect that the May 21 - 25, 2011 outbreak will end up with close to 150 tornadoes. This would rank as the third largest tornado outbreak in history, giving 2011 the three largest tornado outbreaks of all-time. Prior to 2011, NOAA rated the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak as the largest tornado outbreak of all-time, with 148 tornadoes. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters prior to 2011--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401). However, these outbreaks occurred over an eight-day and eleven-day period, respectively, and were not due to a single storm system.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 23:32 UTC (7:32pm EDT) May 25, 2011, showing a line of tornadic thunderstorms over the Midwest. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Tornado near Fariview, Oklahoma, on May 24, 2011. Image credit: Mike Theiss, www.ExtremeNature.com.


Video 1. "We are in the tornado!" is all this poor guy caught in a car during a tornado can say, while buildings fly apart around him. He is very lucky to have survived. Video shot in Navarro County, Texas on May 24, 2011.

The death toll from Tuesday's tornadoes over Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Kansas is now 16, which would bring the death toll from this year's tornadoes to 506, according to yesterday's NOAA tornado statistic update. This makes 2011 the deadliest year for tornadoes in the U.S. since 1953, when 519 people died. That year, three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)

Only a "Slight Risk" day for severe weather today
The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of twenty states, from Alabama to Vermont, in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather potential. The slow-moving low pressure system responsible for all the tornado activity this week is weakening, and the primary severe weather threat today is from large hail and damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds. However, there are still likely to be tornadoes today, and I expect we'll see a dozen or so twisters touch down from some of the stronger thunderstorms that develop.


Figure 3. Severe weather threat for Wednesday, May 25, 2011.

Links
Here is an interactive hi-res satellite image showing Joplin before and after the tornado. Some non-interactive images are here.

The New York Times has an interactive tornado fatality map showing how this year's killer tornadoes have mostly clustered over the Southeast U.S., with the glaring exception of the Joplin, Missouri tornado.

NOAA's Visualization Laboratory has an impressive animation of the satellite imagery during the month of April, showing the locations of all the tornadoes as they happened.


Figure 4. Satellite image of Super Typhoon Songda.

Super Typhoon Songda the first Category 5 tropical cyclone of 2011
The first typhoon of 2011 is also the globe's first Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Super Typhoon Songda intensified dramatically over the past 24 hours in an environment of light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C, to reach Category 5 status with top sustained winds of 160 mph. Tropical Cyclone Yasi, which devastated Queensland, Australia in early February, was the globe's previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2011, with 155 mph winds.

Fortunately, Songda is expected to miss making a direct hit on the Philippines, though evacuations have been ordered in low-lying areas. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the coming 24-hour period is predicted to be less than 4 inches along the northeast coast of the Philippines' Luzon Island, which should not cause major flooding problems. Songda is expected to turn northwards and threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa.

Jeff Masters
Tornado!
Tornado!
Tornado Warning for us. It went just past us, was beautiful to watch.
Large Hail!
Large Hail!
First round of large hail.
Possible Tornado
Possible Tornado
I was west bound I 74 when I drove into this storm. They said On the radio it was a tornado on the ground.
Joplin 5/22/11 EF5 aftermath
Joplin 5/22/11 EF5 aftermath
I went to joplin to look at the destruction this EF5 tornado did. Absolutely devastating in my opinion!
Lightning Strike
Lightning Strike
I caught this totally by accident. I was trying to take a picture of the cloud formation and this flashed right as I took the picture. Unbelievable luck!!
Mammatus over Indy
Mammatus over Indy
View of sky before storm, May 25, 2011 Indianapolis

Tornado Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

let me just set the mood




0.05, Ike? Really? REALLY??!!

you'll just brag about anything to make me feel insufficient!
come monday tuseday the madness begins
I think it's going to happen. Too many models are showing it. Season starting right on time.

he's lost his flippin' mind.

bring back the old Ike.
A lot of rain...
Quoting IKE:

I think it's going to happen. Too many models are showing it. Season starting right on time.
ya may not even get to post 0.0.0 ike
508. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
0.05, Ike? Really? REALLY??!!

you'll just brag about anything to make me feel insufficient!
Really put a dent in the drought:(


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
come monday tuseday the madness begins
May see some north-casting with this one.
509. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
I think it's going to happen. Too many models are showing it. Season starting right on time.

he's lost his flippin' mind.

bring back the old Ike.
LOL.
Quoting IKE:

I think it's going to happen. Too many models are showing it. Season starting right on time.


Good morning all, I would have to agree with you IKE, there is to much support from various models that shows lowering of pressures in the caribbean.
bingo I have it now
Good Morning/evening.

Tomorrow marks the one month birthdate for the Honey Prairie fire where 227 people are still fighting the over 100,000 acre scorch.
A new fire at Race Pond, GA in Starke, FL and further south too, pretty much assure we are going to get smoke no matter where the wind blows.

I realllly hope the rain in the forecast is not a tease today. And no fire-tornadoes please.

P.S.
Yes, it is bad when your local news weather starts playing the new music to the opening of survivor.
514. IKE
Interested to see the 12Z model runs. Stay tuned!
And as always, the NOGAPS is picking up on it...
Good Morning...

4 days to go...
Quoting IKE:

I think it's going to happen. Too many models are showing it. Season starting right on time.


IKE, is this really you or the evil-IKE? Looks like you took your anti-downcaster pill or something. Aqua, this is scarier than storm.
From Shakespeare's The Merchant of Venice, 1596.

PORTIA: The quality of mercy is not strain'd,

It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven
Upon the place beneath: it is twice blest;
It blesseth him that gives and him that takes:
'Tis mightiest in the mightiest: it becomes
The throned monarch better than his crown;
His sceptre shows the force of temporal power,
The attribute to awe and majesty,
Wherein doth sit the dread and fear of kings;
But mercy is above this sceptred sway;
It is enthroned in the hearts of kings,
It is an attribute to God himself;
And earthly power doth then show likest God's
When mercy seasons justice...

rain please?!
138 hours out...gfs...
Quoting Grothar:


IKE, is this really you or the evil-IKE? Looks like you took your anti-downcaster pill or something. Aqua, this is scarier than storm.


I reported it to authorities that someone has stolen his identity. Clearly this is not the same person that we all have come to love:)
521. IKE
Quoting Grothar:


IKE, is this really you or the evil-IKE? Looks like you took your anti-downcaster pill or something. Aqua, this is scarier than storm.
It's the same me. I think.
Quoting Grothar:


IKE, is this really you or the evil-IKE? Looks like you took your anti-downcaster pill or something. Aqua, this is scarier than storm.
Jeez. Its been years........... how are you?..I am back in sunny Port Charlotte, Florida to help my Sis..NOGAPS..lol..Cat-1.?..lol
Quoting IKE:

Morning. Just checked by rain gauge, I had .05 inches of rain. Oh boy!


Once again I checked my rain guage and had to blow the dust out of it......
Quoting Chicklit:
From Shakespeare's The Merchant of Venice, 1596.

PORTIA: The quality of mercy is not strain'd,

It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven
Upon the place beneath: it is twice blest;
It blesseth him that gives and him that takes:
'Tis mightiest in the mightiest: it becomes
The throned monarch better than his crown;
His sceptre shows the force of temporal power,
The attribute to awe and majesty,
Wherein doth sit the dread and fear of kings;
But mercy is above this sceptred sway;
It is enthroned in the hearts of kings,
It is an attribute to God himself;
And earthly power doth then show likest God's
When mercy seasons justice...

rain please?!


I remember seeing that on opening night at "The Theater-in-the-Round" It didn't work then and I don't think it will work now. LOL
Good Morning all...
Another hot morning here with some high cloud.

News reports today are saying that the Air France plane that went down in the Atl. stalled at 38,000 ft, during turbulence and with problems in Flight-Speed readings, and hit the water 3.5 minutes after that.

Someone with better Math skills than me can work out how long it takes to free-fall from 38,000 @ 38 ft/sec/sec. Terminal velocity comes in there somewhere..
But on the face of it, 3.5 mins seems too fast?

Unless the aircraft went into a dive, which would start at cruise-speed. Would it accelerate from there?

Interesting, but the reports are not saying what exactly happened.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I reported it to authorities that someone has stolen his identity. Clearly this is not the same person that we all have come to love:)


Glad someone is on the case. I sort of miss the old IKE. Gave us some laughs.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Once again I checked my rain guage and had to blow the dust out of it......
I read ya...I have a family of jumping spiders living in mine..They stay even if it rains tho..Tenacious they are....
Quoting IKE:
It's the same me. I think.


It OK, IKE. WE mellow with age sometimes. But it the models do want to spin something up there.
The ecmwf ensmean shows the area of low pressure to be quite large...
Quoting hydrus:
Jeez. Its been years........... how are you?..I am back in sunny Port Charlotte, Florida to help my Sis..NOGAPS..lol..Cat-1.?..lol


Hey big H. How you doing?? Scary little model there. Was away for a while.
I am now wondering if we'll make it to June 1st. We could because it will be a broad area to begin with and we all know those can take forever, if ever.
The GFS shows it rather stormy at 384 hours out...:)
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all...
Another hot morning here with some high cloud.

News reports today are saying that the Air France plane that went down in the Atl. stalled at 38,000 ft, during turbulence and with problems in Flight-Speed readings, and hit the water 3.5 minutes after that.

Someone with better Math skills than me can work out how long it takes to free-fall from 38,000 @ 38 ft/sec/sec. Terminal velocity comes in there somewhere..
But on the face of it, 3.5 mins seems too fast?

Unless the aircraft went into a dive, which would start at cruise-speed. Would it accelerate from there?

Interesting, but the reports are not saying what exactly happened.


That is awful pot. Do they know where. I couldn't find anything. I am going back to look.
Spiffed-up toy for the researchers this year.


Quoting IKE:
It's the same me. I think.


If we don't have 93L by Monday, the season is a bust.
536. IKE

Quoting clwstmchasr:


Once again I checked my rain guage and had to blow the dust out of it......
LOL...I've got spiders crawling all over mine and the bird droppings are like hail-storms. Constant bombardment. Wash and rinse!
Quoting Grothar:


That is awful pot. Do they know where. I couldn't find anything. I am going back to look.

SORRY IF THIS IS CONFUSING...
I am talking about the aircraft that went down LAST YEAR.
The news--or lack of it--from Fukushima is incredibly frustrating. All along, both TEPCO and the Japanese government have lied to the world about the extent of the damage and the amount of radiation leaking. Their tired, bleary-eyed spokespeople are trotted out before cameras and microphones every few days to a) apologize for not previously being forthcoming and honest, and b) promise that from here on out, honesty and openness would be the name of the game.

But does anyone really believe them anymore? At this point, they've got less credibility than BP did last year when they claimed the DH spill was just a few gallons of crude

--France--a country that, by the way, loves nuclear power--has suggested to the Japanese government that an additional 70,000 people be evacuated from the area.

--There are indications that the ground around unit #4 has become so saturated with both radioactive and non-radioactive water that the building itself is actually beginning to list to one side. If the tilting continues and the building collapses, the spent fuel--and now partially burnt-- rods stored in pools near the top will be re-exposed, and with no easy removal method. But no action.

--Units 1 through 4 are all structurally compromised--by the earthquake, by the tsunami, by the explosions, by the numerous aftershocks, by the tens of millions of gallons of corrosive seawater being pumped onto and into them. All it would take is one strong aftershock to topple one or more of the buildings, with obvious catastrophic results.

--There are indications that fission is still continuing in at least one of the reactors (unit 3).

--Two weeks ago, Japan's nuclear agency said that nearly 5,000 cases of internal radiation exposure had been found in nuclear workers from around the country. The bulk of those--96%--were originally from Fukushima.

--Japan's basic response to worker exposure to radiation has been to simply raise the allowable limit. It's as if you were a traffic court judge caught speeding yourself, and you solved the problem by simply raising the speed limit. Problem solved!

There are only limited photos out of Fukushima, and nearly zero videos. We only see what has been authorized and scrubbed for the media by TEPCO and the government. We had robot cameras last year to show the world how bad the Gulf leak was, and the efforts being made to fix the situation. And that was in incredibly harsh conditions a mile under the sea. In this day and age of high-tech, high-speed telecommunications, then, there's only one reason we, the citizens of the world, aren't being allowed to see what's going on in Fukushima:

They've lots to hide.
Quoting BobinTampa:


If we don't have 93L by Monday, the season is a bust.


LOL (What do we have now, mini-IKE?)
Quoting Grothar:


Hey big H. How you doing?? Scary little model there. Was away for a while.
We know. You were actually missed by some of the fellow bloggers..I havent the slightest idea why..JK..:)..People were wondering where you went. The NAM 60 hours...
Quoting IKE:
Interested to see the 12Z model runs. Stay tuned!
models are meant to be for guidance only things can and will change been latch on this a few days now lets see if it continues i dont think i can wait ike i got to post those numbers i got 4 more days to wait

lol
Quoting pottery:

SORRY IF THIS IS CONFUSING...
I am talking about the aircraft that went down LAST YEAR.


AirFrance flight 447.
Quoting pottery:

SORRY IF THIS IS CONFUSING...
I am talking about the aircraft that went down LAST YEAR.


You shouldn't scare old people like that in the morning. Specificity, pot, specificity. That was a terrible tragedy, though. Since I travel back and forth quite a bit, it was certainly got my attention.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The news--or lack of it--from Fukushima is incredibly frustrating. All along, both TEPCO and the Japanese government have lied to the world about the extent of the damage and the amount of radiation leaking. Their tired, bleary-eyed spokespeople are trotted out before cameras and microphones every few days to a) apologize for not previously being forthcoming and honest, and b) promise that from here on out, honesty and openness would be the name of the game.

But does anyone really believe them anymore? At this point, they've got less credibility than BP did last year when they claimed the DH spill was just a few gallons of crude

--France--a country that, by the way, loves nuclear power--has suggested to the Japanese government that an additional 70,000 people be evacuated from the area.

--There are indications that the ground around unit #4 has become so saturated with both radioactive and non-radioactive water that the building itself is actually beginning to list to one side. If the tilting continues and the building collapses, the spent fuel--and now partially burnt-- rods stored in pools near the top will be re-exposed, and with no easy removal method. But no action.

--Units 1 through 4 are all structurally compromised--by the earthquake, by the tsunami, by the explosions, by the numerous aftershocks, by the tens of millions of gallons of corrosive seawater being pumped onto and into them. All it would take is one strong aftershock to topple one or more of the buildings, with obvious catastrophic results.

--There are indications that fission is still continuing in at least one of the reactors (unit 3).

--Two weeks ago, Japan's nuclear agency said that nearly 5,000 cases of internal radiation exposure had been found in nuclear workers from around the country. The bulk of those--96%--were originally from Fukushima.

--Japan's basic response to worker exposure to radiation has been to simply raise the allowable limit. It's as if you were a traffic court judge caught speeding yourself, and you solved the problem by simply raising the speed limit. Problem solved!

There are only limited photos out of Fukushima, and nearly zero videos. We only see what has been authorized and scrubbed for the media by TEPCO and the government. We had robot cameras last year to show the world how bad the Gulf leak was, and the efforts being made to fix the situation. And that was in incredibly harsh conditions a mile under the sea. In this day and age of high-tech, high-speed telecommunications, then, there's only one reason we, the citizens of the world, aren't being allowed to see what's going on in Fukushima:

They've lots to hide.

Exactly. IMO, the Japanese culture is so focused on "saving face" that they are not addressing the problems quickly, rather trying to fulfill their social obligations, which causes more issues. Now that it has spiraled out of control, there is no easy solution to the problem... best fix would be to entomb the whole plant.
Quoting hydrus:
We know. You were actually missed by some of the fellow bloggers..I havent the slightest idea why..JK..:)..People were wondering where you went. The NAM 60 hours...
you went somewhere
Quoting hydrus:
We know. You were actually missed by some of the fellow bloggers..I havent the slightest idea why..JK..:)..People were wondering where you went. The NAM 60 hours...


Sorry, hydrus. Things got a little hectic there for a bit. I was incommunicado, but the worst part, I wasn't allowed to contact any body.
The CMC picks up on the Caribbean system very well. May raise some eyebrows middle of next week.
Quoting Grothar:


You shouldn't scare old people like that in the morning. Specificity, pot, specificity. That was a terrible tragedy, though. Since I travel back and forth quite a bit, it was certainly got my attention.

Sorry!
My fault.
Relax, take some deep breaths, the heart-rate will come back down in a while.
:)
549. Jax82
Quoting aquak9:
0.05, Ike? Really? REALLY??!!

you'll just brag about anything to make me feel insufficient!


Good news though, da wunderground forecast shows 50% chance of t-storms today, and 20% from here on out. Or an 80% chance it wont rain after today, depends on how you look at it :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you went somewhere


Twit!
551. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
models are meant to be for guidance only things can and will change been latch on this a few days now lets see if it continues i dont think i can wait ike i got to post those numbers i got 4 more days to wait

lol
lol....

4 days....
16 hours...
5 minutes and it officially starts....
Good morning all...It seems most models are agreeing on one thing...Arlene right around the start of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on Wednesday.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you went somewhere
Grothar was on WU blog hiatus..Good morning Keep.
Quoting Grothar:


Twit!
do you even remember where you went
555. IKE
The deck of cards.....

2011 Hurricane Names

Arlene

Bret

Cindy

Don

Emily

Franklin

Gert

Harvey

Irene

Jose

Katia

Lee

Maria

Nate

Ophelia

Philippe

Rina

Sean

Tammy

Vince

Whitney
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all...It seems most models are agreeing on one thing...Arlene right around the start of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on Wednesday.
well lets not go that far i would say a invest is poss. right now nothing more till a reflection is on the surface could be a fast spinner have to wait and see how the atmosphere responses got at lest another 36 to 48 hrs worth of models to see first
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
do you even remember where you went


Duh!!!! Vaguely.
Quoting Grothar:


Twit!
Please dont be cross....... I will send you a truck load of extra-strength fruity flavored Geritol to aid your ancientness...Glad to see you back in time for the start of what is likely to be a very active season.
Quoting hydrus:
Grothar was on WU blog hiatus..Good morning Keep.
morning hydrus anyway i got to0 go do some work be back for lunch around 12 30
Severe thunderstorms are possible through most of New England and the Mid-Atlantic - from Maine to Virginia - as well as in western and central New York, and Pennsylvania

- Damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible

- The immediate coastline may skirt the thunderstorms today, with Cape Cod having the best shot at a dry day

- Other showers and non-severe thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the region

- Another day of above-average temperatures for New England and the Mid-Atlantic region

- Highs through much of New England and down the coast will be in the 80s, with 50s and 60s closer to the Great Lakes and in northern Maine

Quoting IKE:
The deck of cards.....

2011 Hurricane Names

Arlene

Bret

Cindy

Don

Emily

Franklin

Gert

Harvey

Irene

Jose

Katia

Lee

Maria

Nate

Ophelia

Philippe

Rina

Sean

Tammy

Vince

Whitney


Still can't figure out how Emily didn't get retired...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
From San Juan NWS discussion:


THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF CUBA AND JAMAICA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CUBA...PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY THE END OF UPCOMING WEEK. THESE
FEATURES...IF VERIFY...WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE FA DURING THE BEGINNING OF JUNE. STAY TUNED
I Knew it. June 10 is graduation in Key West. Held in an outdoor stadium. That is the true start of our rainy season. It will rain..it always does. Thank you God. We need the rain, even if it does mess up the graduation. So only the parents get to attend vs the whole town. Or maybe they will get lucky like my class did on the night I graduated. We had one hour of no rain and we got it done at the stadium. Once the ceremonies were over,it started raining. And that was 40+ years ago. Not bad for a weather man with just plain radar.
Day 5 GFS 200mb. Could be a rainy week for the peninsula. Day 4 the low was on the east coast.

Quoting TampaTom:


Still can't figure out how Emily didn't get retired...

Still can;t figure out what kind of macabre joke it is to replace Rita with "Rina". It just looks like a combination of Katrina and Rita.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, May 27th, with video


Good Morning, Levi.
Quoting IKE:
The deck of cards.....

2011 Hurricane Names

Arlene

Bret

Cindy

Don

Emily

Franklin

Gert

Harvey

Irene

Jose

Katia

Lee

Maria

Nate

Ophelia

Philippe

Rina

Sean

Tammy

Vince

Whitney


Are you implying that this year we will have 52 storms?! There are only 20 names here, where are the others? LOL.
Still can;t figure out what kind of macabre joke it is to replace Rita with "Rina". It just looks like a combination of Katrina and Rita.

ROFL!! probably some idiot!
Good morning Levi. Thank you for your update and analysis!
Quoting Waltanater:
Still can;t figure out what kind of macabre joke it is to replace Rita with "Rina". It just looks like a combination of Katrina and Rita.

ROFL!! probably some idiot!

The funny thing is, both "Rina" and "Katia" are variants of "Catherine"--as was "Katrina". Sort of a two-fer...
Quoting jeffs713:

Still can;t figure out what kind of macabre joke it is to replace Rita with "Rina". It just looks like a combination of Katrina and Rita.


LOL, that is what I was about to comment too! Good morning all....

And Emily should have been retired, twice. Emily 1987 was vicious, and so was Emily 2005.
573. Bijou
C'mon on! Katia?? And Rina?? I'm sure they could have tried a little harder to find names more similar to Katrina and Rita. Like I want to be reminded? At least Whitney doesn't bring to mind the name Wilma.



Quoting IKE:
The deck of cards.....

2011 Hurricane Names

Arlene

Bret

Cindy

Don

Emily

Franklin

Gert

Harvey

Irene

Jose

Katia

Lee

Maria

Nate

Ophelia

Philippe

Rina

Sean

Tammy

Vince

Whitney
Quoting jeffs713:

Still can;t figure out what kind of macabre joke it is to replace Rita with "Rina". It just looks like a combination of Katrina and Rita.


They were lazy when they retired names in 2005.

With Katrina, all they did was drop the r and n to make Katia....with Rita, only switch the t to an 'n.' What a lack of creativity.

They could have used Kasey, Katelin...

They could have used Rachel, Rochelle...something else...

who at the WMO gets to decide these things anyway? LOL


Thanks Levi, Its hard to believe that it is already Tropical tidbit time again.
Quoting pottery:
Someone with better Math skills than me can work out how long it takes to free-fall from 38,000 @ 38 ft/sec/sec. Terminal velocity comes in there somewhere..
But on the face of it, 3.5 mins seems too fast?

Unless the aircraft went into a dive . . .


My math skills are passable, but my firsthand experience with freefall is rather extensive. A flat falling skydiver (face to earth) falls at an average of about 120mph. It takes approximately 60 seconds to fall 10,000 feet, normally, so those numbers don't seem unreasonable for an aircraft descending in a flat, nose-up attitude.

FYI, a skydiver in a vertical position can exceed 200mph.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, May 27th, with video


What's the timeframe for this? A lot of buzz about this kicking off around the start of the season next week.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-vis. html

By checking HDW-high, can see latest 200 mb streamlines. 200 mb streamlines still showing a lot of westerly flow over the US, some "anticyclonicity" (ridging) to the SW of Texas. Is that the anticyclonicity that is supposed to become the big ridge you hinted at in your blog?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What's the timeframe for this? A lot of buzz about this kicking off around the start of the season next week.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-vis. html

By checking HDW-high, can see latest 200 mb streamlines. 200 mb streamlines still showing a lot of westerly flow over the US, some "anticyclonicity" (ridging) to the SW of Texas. Is that the anticyclonicity that is supposed to become the big ridge you hinted at in your blog?


I mentioned the time frame in both the video and the blog. The models have low pressure forming as soon as 120 hours, on June 1st.

The anticyclonic flow you speak of is present most of the time over southern Texas during the summer simply because it's so hot, allowing a semi-permanent ridge to exist, but the ridge will be building northeastward from the southern plains.
Also I think Hurricane Emily 2005\1993 did not kill enough people to warrant a retirement. Also the Mexican Government may have something to do with this (maybe not reported or something) I vaguely remember someone mentioning this back in 2008.
580. JRRP
Quoting hydrus:
I read ya...I have a family of jumping spiders living in mine..They stay even if it rains tho..Tenacious they are....


Wait a minute,now.....JUMPING spiders ???? Lordy, Lordy.....yikes , just couldn't handle that...noooo
582. JRRP
Favorable for Tropical Development

120hr
Quoting bluheelrtx:


My math skills are passable, but my firsthand experience with freefall is rather extensive. A flat falling skydiver (face to earth) falls at an average of about 120mph. It takes approximately 60 seconds to fall 10,000 feet, normally, so those numbers don't seem unreasonable for an aircraft descending in a flat, nose-up attitude.

FYI, a skydiver in a vertical position can exceed 200mph.

Terminal velocity for a prone skydiver is 127 mph.
Quoting Levi32:


I mentioned the time frame in both the video and the blog. The models have low pressure forming as soon as 120 hours, on June 1st.

The anticyclonic flow you speak of is present most of the time over southern Texas during the summer simply because it's so hot, allowing a semi-permanent ridge to exist, but the ridge will be building northeastward from the southern plains.


I guess this will be the point of anticipation in the Atlantic tropics...the subtropical machine in the central Atlantic doesn't look like its going anywhere anymore. Surface low of ex-92L dissipated yesterday. The upper low that produced 92L sort of looked interesting yesterday afternoon when it touched off yet another surface low. The whole thing is retrograding WNW and eventually NW, then will probably get swept out to sea over next days by the storm front approaching the east coast today.
Quoting IKE:
The deck of cards.....

2011 Hurricane Names

Arlene

Bret

Cindy

Don

Emily

Franklin

Gert

Harvey

Irene

Jose

Katia

Lee

Maria

Nate

Ophelia

Philippe

Rina

Sean

Tammy

Vince

Whitney


Hello everyone, good morning.

Thanks, Ike, for the 2011 list.
Man, some of those names should have been retired they have been used so many times before ..
Like Irene for goodness sakes.. how many Irene's are we going to have to deal with..
She caused a lot of distruction and flooding in my area back in 1999 (think that was the year)

just like "Gordon" in other years....
I am fully Aware "Gordon" is not on this list or the 2005 list but another list.. just using it as another exampl.
We have so many Hurricane Gordon's out there you have to ask which one?

And Didn't we have a major hurricane Cindy in 2005 that hit the Panhandle? Same with Emily??

We should retire the name if it becames a hurricane that hits land.. just my two cents worth!

I see we may get a big start to our "season" next week... hummmm...

take care and enjoy.
Gams
586. IKE
54 hour 12Z NAM.....


The Retirement of Hurricane Names

Hurricanes that have a severe impact on lives or the economy are remembered generations after the devastation they caused, and some go into weather history. The National Hurricane Center near Miami, Florida, monitors tropical disturbances in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans which could become a hurricane.

Whenever a hurricane has had a major impact, any country affected by the storm can request that the name of the hurricane be "retired" by agreement of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Retiring a name actually means that it cannot be reused for at least 10 years, to facilitate historic references, legal actions, insurance claim activities, etc. and avoid public confusion with another storm of the same name. If that happens, a like gender name is selected in English, Spanish or French for Atlantic Storms.

There is an exception to the retirement rule, however. Before 1979, when the first permanent six-year storm name list began, some storm names were simply not used anymore. For example, in 1966, "Fern" was substituted for "Frieda," and no reason was cited.

Below is a list of Atlantic Ocean retired names, the years the hurricanes occurred, and the areas they affected. There are, however, a great number of destructive storms not included on this list because they occurred before the hurricane naming convention was established in 1950.

Atlantic Storms Retired Into Hurricane History

Agnes (1972): Florida, Northeast U.S.
Alicia (1983): North Texas
Allen (1980): Antilles, Mexico, South Texas
Allison (2001): northeast Texas
Andrew (1992): Bahamas, South Florida, Louisiana
Anita (1977): Mexico
Audrey (1957): Louisiana, North Texas
Betsy (1965): Bahamas, Southeast Florida, Southeast Louisiana
Beulah (1967): Antilles, Mexico, South Texas
Bob (1991): North Carolina & Northeast U.S.
Camille (1969): Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama
Carla (1961): Texas
Carmen (1974): Mexico, Central Louisiana
Carol (1954): Northeast U.S.
Cesar (1996): Honduras
Celia (1970): South Texas
Charley (2004): Jamaica, western Cuba, Florida
Cleo (1964): Lesser Antilles, Haiti, Cuba, Southeast Florida
Connie (1955): North Carolina
David (1979): Lesser Antilles, Hispañola, Florida and Eastern U.S.
Dennis (2005): Alabama, Florida
Diana (1990): Mexico
Diane (1955): Mid-Atlantic U.S. & Northeast U.S.
Donna (1960): Bahamas, Florida and Eastern U.S.
Dora (1964): Northeast Florida
Edna (1968)
Elena (1985): Mississippi, Alabama, Western Florida
Eloise (1975): Antilles, Northwest Florida, Alabama
Fabian (2003): Bermuda
Fifi (1974): Yucatan Peninsula, Louisiana
Flora (1963): Haiti, Cuba
Floyd (1999): North Carolina, eastern seaboard
Fran (1996): North Carolina
Frances (2004): Florida
Frederic (1979): Alabama and Mississippi
Georges (1998): Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Mississippi
Gilbert (1988): Lesser Antilles, Jamaica, Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico
Gloria (1985): North Carolina, Northeast U.S.
Hattie (1961): Belize, Guatemala
Hazel (1954): Antilles, North and South Carolina
Hilda (1964): Louisiana
Hortense (1996)
Hugo (1989): Antilles, South Carolina
Inez (1966): Lesser Antilles, Hispanola, Cuba, Florida Keys, Mexico
Ione (1955): North Carolina
Iris (2001): Belize, Guatemala
Isabel (2003): North Carolina
Isidore (2002): Cuba, northern Yucatan Peninsula, Louisiana
Ivan (2004): Lesser Antilles, Jamaica, western Cuba, Alabama, western Florida panhandle
Janet (1955): Lesser Antilles, Belize, Mexico
Jeanne (2004): Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, northern Bahamas, Florida
Joan (1988): Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, Nicaragua (Crossed into the Pacific and became Miriam)
Juan (2003): Nova Scotia
Katrina (2005): South Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
Keith (2000): Belize, Mexico
Klaus (1990): Martinique
Lenny (1999): Antilles
Lili (2002): Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Louisiana
Luis (1995)
Marilyn (1995): Bermuda
Michelle (2001): Central America, Cuba, northern Bahamas
Mitch (1998): Central America, Nicaragua, Honduras
Opal (1995): Florida Panhandle
Rita (2005): northeast Texas, western Louisiana
Roxanne (1995): Yucatan Peninsula
Stan (2005): Mexico
Wilma (2005): northeast Yucatan Peninsula, Florida

For more information contact National Hurricane Center public affairs at (305) 229-4404 or visit the NHC Web site at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

588. IKE

Quoting seflagamma:


Hello everyone, good morning.

Thanks, Ike, for the 2011 list.
Man, some of those names should have been retired they have been used so many times before ..
Like Irene for goodness sakes.. how many Irene's are we going to have to deal with..
She caused a lot of distruction and flooding in my area back in 1999 (think that was the year) just like "Gordon" in other years.
We have so many Hurricane Gordon's out there you have to ask which one?

And Didn't we have a major hurricane Cindy in 2005 that hit the Panhandle? Same with Emily??

We should retire the name if it becames a hurricane that hits land.. just my two cents worth!

I see we may get a big start to our "season" next week... hummmm...

take care and enjoy.
Gams
Cindy came in around New Orleans. I have to check on what the 2005 Emily did.
589. IKE
2005 Emily was a buzzsaw....


Emily achieved CAT 5 briefly and went into Mexico. I think it also hit Jamaica as a 4.
Quoting seflagamma:


Hello everyone, good morning.

Thanks, Ike, for the 2011 list.
Man, some of those names should have been retired they have been used so many times before ..
Like Irene for goodness sakes.. how many Irene's are we going to have to deal with..
She caused a lot of distruction and flooding in my area back in 1999 (think that was the year)

just like "Gordon" in other years....
I am fully Aware "Gordon" is not on this list or the 2005 list but another list.. just using it as another exampl.
We have so many Hurricane Gordon's out there you have to ask which one?

And Didn't we have a major hurricane Cindy in 2005 that hit the Panhandle? Same with Emily??

We should retire the name if it becames a hurricane that hits land.. just my two cents worth!

I see we may get a big start to our "season" next week... hummmm...

take care and enjoy.
Gams


Cindy was a low-end Cat 1 hurricane that hit Louisiana southwest of New Orleans.

thanks Ike, I know both of them came into northern GOM in 2005...

now I see Levi has a new update got to go watch.

I'm off to work. Later all.
I knew one of them was bad and both hit land... WE have plenty of names we should retire
a lot more of them so they don't get mixed up and we have to always add the "year" to
their name to know which ones we are talking about.

Thanks guys!
Quoting jeffs713:

Terminal velocity for a prone skydiver is 127 mph.


Terminal velocity varies a bit based on atmospheric conditions, body size, mass, etc. . The average speed is in the 120-130mph range. The wikipedia page on terminal velocity (or any decent physics book) usually will contain a formula that gives a good approximation based on surface area, mass, and fluid density.
Quoting jeffs713:

Terminal velocity for a prone skydiver is 127 mph.


Depending on height, weight, body type, body position, and experience level . . . sure.
Quoting seflagamma:
I knew one of them was bad and both hit land... WE have plenty of names we should retire
a lot more of them so they don't get mixed up and we have to always add the "year" to
their name to know which ones we are talking about.

Thanks guys!


The retirement of names is not associated with the # of times it gets used, which can be really confusing. Its all about how much damage it did, and I believe a petition to the WMO (World Metorological Organization) to say that the storm was so damaging that it should be retired.
Quoting IKE:
2005 Emily was a buzzsaw....




Emily was also the strongest July hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin on record, minimal cat. 5 with central pressure of 929 mb....
#597 I know that's how they do it; I just think they do not use "common sense or real life reasoning" in their methods...
but I tend to be more of a "practical" person...

thanks.


Levi, great update today. Thanks.

Quoting bluheelrtx:


My math skills are passable, but my firsthand experience with freefall is rather extensive. A flat falling skydiver (face to earth) falls at an average of about 120mph. It takes approximately 60 seconds to fall 10,000 feet, normally, so those numbers don't seem unreasonable for an aircraft descending in a flat, nose-up attitude.

FYI, a skydiver in a vertical position can exceed 200mph.

OK thanks for that.
Appreciated.
Oh yeah...

Stan 2005 was retired due to major flooding in SE Mexico. Replaced with Sean for this year. Stan was the weakest of the storms that got retired in 2005, Stan peaked at cat. 1. Sort of like how Allison was "just" a tropical storm, but got retired because of its big rains.
Quoting bluheelrtx:


Depending on height, weight, body type, body position, and experience level . . . sure.

127 is the average terminal velocity, assuming an average height/weight/body type, in a prone position (face down, arms and legs slightly spread). Of course, if you spread your arms wide and have extra fabric to create "webbing", you will slow down. By the same token, if you pull your arms and legs in, and orient yourself head-first, you will speed up.
When we are watching for development 5-7 days from now, if something does develop in the SW Caribbean, it'll have TCHP to go off of.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...
PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF US HIGHWAY ONE...WHERE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL UP THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

Looks like its my turn today with the severe weather mambo-jambo....
Quoting jeffs713:

127 is the average terminal velocity, assuming an average height/weight/body type, in a prone position (face down, arms and legs slightly spread). Of course, if you spread your arms wide and have extra fabric to create "webbing", you will slow down. By the same token, if you pull your arms and legs in, and orient yourself head-first, you will speed up.


Skydiving is what got me obsessed with weather. I got addicted to Wunderground shortly after making my first jump, almost 14 years ago.
606. Jax82
Looks like its going to be a rainy day for the Florida Peninsula. As for skydiving, i've been twice. You cant replace the feeling you get when your feet are dangling out the side of a small propeller plane and there is nothing between you and the ground except 13,000 feet of air! The air is much cooler at the top and it warms as your fall, thankfully my parachute opened both times :)
Quoting pottery:

OK thanks for that.
Appreciated.
See post 600 from Pottery---Ref. AirFrance flight 447---I know it's preliminary information, but the F.D.R actually confirmed a descent rate of appx 10,100 ft/min, so 3.5 minutes from an altitude of 38,000 to ocean surface is about right. What really puzzels me is that at 10,000 ft (correlated with audio from the cockpit voice recorder) is that the pilots actually pulled the control sticks "AFT" (noted by the F.D.R), making the flight condition worse. Thats a BASIC "stick and rudder" mistake to make when in a stalled condition. You push that control stick FORWARD for all it's worth to help get out of the stall. My flight instructor taught me that in my first hour of flight training, and drilled it into my head and responses. I can only figure that with all what was going on in the cockpit, major disorientatioin took over and confused an already panicked and confused flight crew.
Quoting bluheelrtx:


Skydiving is what got me obsessed with weather. I got addicted to Wunderground shortly after making my first jump, almost 14 years ago.


Gotta check those weather conditions before taking off, aye?

One of my friends took me to fly in a Cesna Skyhawk plane; smallest plane I ever rode in (but something you can't jump out of). Spent some time checking all those weather conditions and doing preflight checklist. He and I can only appreciate the importance of meteorology, my other friends think its useless, LOL.
Quoting Jax82:
Looks like its going to be a rainy day for the Florida Peninsula. As for skydiving, i've been twice. You cant replace the feeling you get when your feet are dangling out the side of a small propeller plane and there is nothing between you and the ground except 13,000 feet of air! The air is much cooler at the top and it warms as your fall, thankfully my parachute opened both times :)


Whoa, just got dizzy reading that. Can't imagine I'll ever get the guts to do THAT....LOL
Quoting HouGalv08:
I know it's preliminary information, but the F.D.R actually confirmed a descent rate of appx 10,100 ft/min, so 3.5 minutes from an altitude of 38,000 to ocean surface is about right. What really puzzels me is that at 10,000 ft (correlated with audio from the cockpit voice recorder) is that the pilots actually pulled the control sticks "AFT" (noted by the F.D.R), making the flight condition worse. Thats a BASIC "stick and rudder" mistake to make when in a stalled condition. You push that control stick FORWARD for all it's worth to help get out of the stall. My flight instructor taught me that in my first hour of flight training, and drilled it into my head and responses. I can only figure that with all what was going on in the cockpit, major disorientatioin took over and confused an already paniced and confused flight crew.

Yes I noticed that in the published report.
The aircraft was in 16 degree climb and more climb seems to have been applied.
They were concerned with the 'stall' signal to the point where they were not looking at the altitude going up fast? And INCREASED the climb rate at one point...
Really strange responses.
Bad stuff, anyway.
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, hydrus. Things got a little hectic there for a bit. I was incommunicado, but the worst part, I wasn't allowed to contact any body.



The Mrs. sent you to your room again? See what happens when you lose HER car keys!
614. IKE
156 missing in Joplin.

132 dead.

from CNN.

................................................. ..................

12Z GFS is running... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/c arib/gfs/12/model_s.shtml
Seems like it's time to stop "nation building" in other parts of the world that are thousands of miles away from home, and where the efforts are not appreciated very much, if at all, and help put Joplin and Tuscaloosa back togeather. To quote a member on the board--"just sayin"
Quoting Waltanater:
Still can;t figure out what kind of macabre joke it is to replace Rita with "Rina". It just looks like a combination of Katrina and Rita.

ROFL!! probably some idiot!


THANK YOU!!! That's what I've been saying since I saw that list. Lol.
Quoting bluheelrtx:


Skydiving is what got me obsessed with weather. I got addicted to Wunderground shortly after making my first jump, almost 14 years ago.
My wife and I would LOVE to go skydiving - its just so painfully expensive, and we also have the travel bug.. so our money is spent traveling, rather than skydiving. That said, I've been told that skydiving is very similar to getting a tattoo, in that once you do it, you're addicted.
618. IKE
GFS spitting out some rain this afternoon here....


And thanks To Levi's blog I understand about the low the ECMWF's been tracking across the gulf. They did have it closer to the surface a couple a runs. And other than the agreement on the Caribbean low they show another low on the 850 tracking east to west for a brief time in the gulf. Hopefully this won't be another season of one after another. My first season to track on here was 2008 starting after the E name. That was a busy one too.





Be interesting to see if anything becomes of this.
Seems like Songda is going to whip the waters of Fukushima...


Quoting pottery:

Yes I noticed that in the published report.
The aircraft was in 16 degree climb and more climb seems to have been applied.
They were concerned with the 'stall' signal to the point where they were not looking at the altitude going up fast? And INCREASED the climb rate at one point...
Really strange responses.
Bad stuff, anyway.


Hi Pottery,

I saw your question earlier about speed of descent. I just read a UK report that states the aircraft hit the water at 180 feet per second. That converts to approximately 122 MPH.
The models still agree on something forming right into next week.We'll see what happens in future.....
Someone posted a link for the Jim Lushine theory (dry month of May in Florida leads to doubling of probability of hurricane strike in Florida) the other day. The article was from 1993.

Does anyone know how well the theory has held up since 1993?

And is there any similar theory relating to Texas?

Thanks
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Gotta check those weather conditions before taking off, aye?

Absolutely. Skydivers are a lot like VFR aircraft - and the parachutes are like gliders with really lousy glide ratios, so ground conditions are just as important as altitude.


There is also nothing quite like free falling through an inversion layer. :-)

Quoting jeffs713:
My wife and I would LOVE to go skydiving - its just so painfully expensive, and we also have the travel bug.. so our money is spent traveling, rather than skydiving.

It's not as expensive after you train and purchase gear, but it's funny you should say that. I have recently shifted most of my skydiving time to riding motorcycles with my fiancé.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like Songda is going to whip the waters of Fukushima...


That monster came dangerously close to land.Hopefully it'll start to rapidly weaken sooner...
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Pottery,

I saw your question earlier about speed of descent. I just read a UK report that states the aircraft hit the water at 180 feet per second. That converts to approximately 122 MPH.
Probably just above stall speed if the flaps and slat would have been out, pointed into the prevailing wind, but not flyable if flaps and slats retracted. Confirms even further that the aircraft was in a high nose-up attitude when it hit the water.
Quoting washingtonian115:
That monster came dangerously close to land.Hopefully it'll start to rapidly weaken sooner...


That's the forecast:

628. IKE
90 hour 12Z GFS...


Model, Area : GFS, Tropical Atlantic, 1.0 deg WARFIGHTER

XX/XX/XX

Quoting HouGalv08:
Probably just above stall speed if the flaps and slat would have been out, pointed into the prevailing wind, but not flyable if flaps and slats retracted. Confirms even further that the aircraft was in a high nose-up attitude when it hit the water.


Agreed. If the aircraft was in a "clean" configuration
definitely not flyable at that speed. With all they had going on in the cockpit including the stall warning horn the loss of speed sensor information would probably have stymied even the computer's attempts to deal with the emergency.
632. srada
Today's map may need to be updated..Florence, SC is already having some severe thunderstorms..

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
And thanks To Levi's blog I understand about the low the ECMWF's been tracking across the gulf. They did have it closer to the surface a couple a runs. And other than the agreement on the Caribbean low they show another low on the 850 tracking east to west for a brief time in the gulf. Hopefully this won't be another season of one after another. My first season to track on here was 2008 starting after the E name. That was a busy one too.





Be interesting to see if anything becomes of this.


Hi!
On the 12z GFS at 108 hours a broad area of low pressure develops in the southwestern Caribbean with convection sheared off to the northeast. The development of this system keeps moving along the 'timeline'.

Typhoon Songda



GFS shows what Levi talked about in his blog entry...Where most convection would be to the E and NE of the circulation.
Only 5 more days till start of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

There is still an opportunity for the Fed Gov't to reconsider and give a retiring space shuttle to Houston's Johnson Space Center before hurricane season. Otherwise, we're not responsible for bad Karma causing a chaotic & destructive season this year.
Quoting Hurrykane:


Hi!


Hi Hurrykane. :)
640. IKE
Hour 126...


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
GFS shows what Levi talked about in his blog entry...Where most convection would be to the E and NE of the circulation.
Yup, upper-level winds racing towards the northeast courtesy of the subtropical jet are going to shear off the convection off the circulation.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup, upper-level winds racing towards the northeast courtesy of the subtropical jet are going to shear off the convection off the circulation.



You can see a piece of a trough off the west coast of FL that will be ventilating the Caribbean and lowering Wind Shear, helping whatever may form and develop.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You can see a piece of a trough off the west coast of FL that will be ventilating the Caribbean and lowering Wind Shear, helping whatever may form and develop.
At 144 hours the upper low is located right over the center of the Gulf of Mexico advecting towards the west.

Quoting TexasGulf:
Only 5 more days till start of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

There is still an opportunity for the Fed Gov't to reconsider and give a retiring space shuttle to Houston's Johnson Space Center before hurricane season. Otherwise, we're not responsible for bad Karma causing a chaotic & destructive season this year.
if there is a chaotic and destructive season that iam afraid will have nothing to do with it be careful you don't want a cat 5 barreling down on ya crossing the gulf what you sent out may come back to haunt you
645. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Wait a minute,now.....JUMPING spiders ???? Lordy, Lordy.....yikes , just couldn't handle that...noooo
Yes. They do actually jump, but they do not have much of a bite. I have been bitten many times by different spiders surveying down in the everglades.
Seabreeze boundary storms firing up along US41 in Fort Myers/North Fort Myers and moving east. Nice thunderboomers and good soaking rains! Woohoo!!

In other weather news,
The Heat wins! The Heat wins!!
Good morning ya'll. Caribbean is smothered with moisture. Looks plain nasty.