The low pressure area that formed near Puerto Rico this morning is now north of the island. No increase in organization has happened today, and wind shear remains high enough--20 knots--that no development can occur until Tuesday at the earliest. The low continues to bring heavy rain to Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands. Most of the global computer models continue to predict that a tropical storm will form from this disturbed area of weather later this week and move north to threaten Bermuda.Figure 2.
Current radar out of Puerto Rico shows some banding developing in association with a low to the north of the island.Vince
Vince is headed east towards Portugal, and is still holding together in the face of 22 C water temperatures and 30 knots of wind shear. The cold water and wind shear will destroy Vince by tomorrow, before he can hit land. Vince recently passed over a buoy that measured a central pressure of 996.7 mb. Vince's remains will bring heavy rain and 30 mph winds to southern Portugal on Tuesday.Figure 1.
Hurricane Vince at peak strength, Sunday October 9, 17 GMT. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey, CA.Stan
There is no new news on Stan's death toll today, which remains in the 1000 - 2000 range. Most of these deaths occurred in the Lake Atitlan area.
For those of you who want to help out, wunderground member neavilag in Guatemala recommends a donation to the Guatemalan Red Cross
399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK N.Y. 10043
Banco del Cafe, S. A. Guatemala
For final credit to:
Cruz Roja Guatemalteca Acct Number 81-03-44361-0
My next update will be Tuesday at 9:30 am EDT.