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No fireworks in the tropics today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:09 PM GMT on July 04, 2006

There will be no natural fireworks in the tropics today--unless you happen to be in the Western Pacific, where Category 4 Typhoon Ewiniar is chugging north over the open ocean. "Ewiniar" is the Chuuk Islands' (Micronesia) traditional storm God, and his namesake storm is thankfully expected to weaken to Category 1 strength before threatening Japan this weekend.

In the Atlantic, there is an area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands associated with an upper-level low pressure system. This low is kicking up some strong thunderstorms just east of Florida, and is expected to drift west-southwest over Florida by Wednesday. Tropical development of this area is unlikely today and tomorrow. There will be strong northwestery flow of air at upper levels over Florida that should bring unfavorable wind shear to the system, and there is also a large area of dry air to contend with. However, by Friday or Saturday, computer models are indicating the possibility that something could develop east of Florida or south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and zip northwards along the East Coast. This development could be non-tropical, though.

The other area we need to watch the next few days is the Gulf of Mexico. While there is currently no activity of note, wind shear will be light enough in some regions of the Gulf to allow slow tropical development over the next few days. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today.

Have a great 4th of July, everyone!
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Who's first?
you are
The NAM model is picking up on a 1016 mb low southwest of the west coast of Florida in 84 hours. This might be what the other models have been hinting at since last night.

Thanks for the update Doc...happy 4th to you and all.

Good luck space shuttle.
On the shuttle issue:

There is only a 20% chance that weather will cause a scrub today.

The earlier launch window helps for sure.
Happy 4th of July

Accuweather Vs The National Weather Service and The National

Hurricane Center.

Joe Bastardi has criticized the National Weather Service for being too conservative in its forecasts.

This was an extract from a biography of Joe Bastardi of Accuweather on

Wikipedia, the
Free Encyclopedia.
Question: In your opinion, do you think Joe Bastardi has a

point with this statement.

a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Weather456/show.html"

target="_blank">leave comments at my blog.
I posted earlier this morning via yesterday's Blog link and received no response. Here is a copy/paste for anyone that might like to entertain my low voltage story and question.

copy/paste of earlier entry:
Happy 4th!
We survived the weekend on Shell Island (off the coast of St. Pete, FL).

Late afternoon build-up skirted past us the first two nights but Sunday (late afternoon) we were slammed with a system moving WNW. We had been watching the skies build to our east all afternoon, started hearing distant thunder and then the wind direction changed on a dime - ESE to WNW. It is one thing to watch that happen from my back porch but experiencing that while on an island was a little unnerving. We had about 15-minutes to double the anchors on the boat and stake tarps over our tents before it hit.

It was a heavy storm I think we were in tstorm hell for about 45 minutes (an eternity when you are vulnerable on an island). We are sure we saw a waterspout off the island but the rain was dense and we were anxious so I wouldnt swear to that. Something about hanging onto a palm tree branch to keep your feet under you can do things to the imagination. I mention it only because we all pointed to the same spot in the water at the same time (some of us pointing with more animation then others!).

What scared us most was not our own plight but watching boats come in from the Gulf with Captains heading right into the middle of the storm in a panic to dock. We saw very few boats that took a leeward heading and have a greater respect for what the Coast Guard must deal with on busy boating weekends when storms come between boaters and land. Captains your intellect may be tricking you when it tells you the safest place is to head home! Please, keep a cool head; listen to the marine radio and STAY SAFE!

I know what we experienced was just a typical afternoon tstorm but would still love to see what showed on radar. Does anyone know of a link that archives radar images?

Stormy
Happy 4th!
Happy 4th of July

Accuweather Vs The National Weather Service and The National

Hurricane Center.

Joe Bastardi has criticized the National Weather Service for being too

conservative in its forecasts.


This was an extract from a biography of Joe Bastardi of Accuweather on

Wikipedia, the
Free Encyclopedia.
Question: In your opinion, do you think Joe Bastardi has a

point with this statement.

leave comments at my blog.
oops...too early for html :(

I was just gonna say the radar looks more like 80/20 the other way to me.
Dr. Jeff Masters - had a chance to read your hurricane hunter foray into Hugo...of course, no one wants to go throught that for a great story, but I was riveted to your account of it. Fortunately, I don't live near hurricanes...I have experienced G-force turbulence similar to what you went through in mountainous terrain, in a Cessna, no less. Fortunately, they can take a few more G's (at least, they are rated higher). The story really resonated with me, especially the plunge towards the ocean, as I caught a TS on a mountain ridge, pegged my VSI (vertical speed indicator), bagged my head on the cockpit ceiling (close to blacking out), and came close to picking out a Xmas tree. However, my mountainous flight training (so they say) manual says you cannot be pushed into the ground (just seems that way), as the air will eventually go horizontal. The owner of the plane asked me if I had torqued the plane, as it had a slight corkscrew bend...I'm sure it wasn't me...However, my worst flight (I call it 'the flight of stupidity') was through a snow squall south of Bellingham, WA in the dead of winter...Well, I will leave that story to another day. I guess that Hugo flight was the beginning of the end for you? It's one thing to be at the controls flying through hell; than being in a tin can, and thrown about without any control over the proceedings (much worse IMHO). Great story though...Happy that you are still with us, to write about it.
no accuweather comments plz, they were saying last year during wilma that we were just under a hurricane watch, when NOAA stated it was a hurricane warning.
Happy July 4th to all of you in the USA!!! Glad the day is quiet in terms of tropical weather, allowing all to enjoy the day.

As for Mr. Bastardi from Exaggerate and Hype U Weather, his criticizing the NHC (upon who he relies for free weather information, and with whom his company "competes") is a typical low blow from a company that is after one thing - money..
Exaggerate and Hype U Weather

LOL! That is one of the funniest names for AccuWeather that I have seen!
This wave, appears to be trying re organize right now. On the Infrared Satellite on wunderground it shows some convection blowing up to the north of what appears to be a low level center trying to form. Any thoughts on this system, the dry air is located to the north and northwest of the system and appears to somewhat have disappated. Any comments on this?
Circulation and convection evident in radar loops south of Grand Bahama island, but pressures still high.

Recent Obs from Freeport, Grand Bahamas:
11 AM 30.1 (1019) ESE 7 showers
10 AM 30.1 (1019) NE 7 thunder;
9 AM 30.09 (1018) E 5
8 AM 30.08 (1018) E 5
7 AM 30.06 (1017) E 5
6 AM 30.06 (1017) ENE 5
Is a Hunter scheduled for a flight or recon today for this one?
18. IKE
NOUS42 KNHC 041330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 04 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
Crab you around, whats the weather outside your shell like?
there is nothing worth sending recon into yet..
snow, pull up the NEXRAD out of Miami and the click on the composite part. Tell me what you see.
Hia! ^.^

All I see is an ULL on radar... Just a very broad circulation. Nothing to fret about... Give it a few days and then if its still there... It might be something to talk about.
what's the composite?
No cyclonic surface circulation anywhere near the Bahamas at this time, I checked the surface Obs, and the
Hi-Res QuickSCAT 15:56 UTC Pass shows no westerly surface winds over the Bahamas.

Hope the dry air kills that blob of rain headed for me, or else my plans for a big outdoor get-together are kaput. I''ll be checking in again tonight.

Happy Independence Day!



sorry plywoodstatenative, I just am not seeing anything except a few showers and thunderstorms heading for FLA..
Happy 4th all!

Live feed on the shuttle launch. They put the radar up on the left this time as well. Looks good for go so far.
Ewinar blew up, 120kt/922mb and just a beautiful sat presentation.
plyboard awnsered your question on the oter blog bobs
also here we go with the accuweather bashing and masters idolizing again oh well those who have had joe and his service
for the last sevral years and having extra time to prepare or certainly keep
a close eye out no better. masters says this wont develop makes me worry more lol besides i work forr the 2nd largest military
contractor in the world and guess who theyrely on
impact and accuweather and pro soi guess maybe if they like it then they sure have moreto lose than i do.
but why should i keep repeating this some want free some are willing to pay and we getwhat we pay for
just respectfully disagree if the big businesses use it than common sense tells us they dont waste thier moneyon mediocrity
Ewiniar is awesome, and nothing stopping him from making Cat 5 by this time tomorrow. Just hope he weakens sufficiently before hitting Japan at week's end..
hello pony happy fourth to you my friend
SAINT - military contractors are not known for their weather-smarts, but love anything that will help run up the tab..
snowboy - Number one priority is to keep that burn rate high. Can't risk getting your money taken away in another "Bosnian Sweep".
snow melt you have the right to you opinion this not a military owned company
and this cost for these services come out of company profits and i will assure you
northrop grumman does not waste and of corporate if it can be cut and also unless you read joes columns
everyday how can you knock it i give a 100 examples over the last 2 years how he outperforms the nhc and
certainly jeff masters once again where is gregory ill give you 2 and that should be enough he raked the nhc over the
coals for not calling gaston a hurricane when it was at its peak in 2004
he raked them over the coals about cindy last year at its peak
not being a hurricane. go look at your archives of nhc after both seasons hmmm mayfields boys made it A hurricane maybe he sees whats there
at the present and thier like archeologist it has to be ded
awhile for them to draw a true conclusion lol
Great view of the last 12 hrs of B.O.B> Big time come back in presentation today. I like this view

Link
37. dcw
Saint, if you're talking about Bastardi: He forecast Tammy to hit Jacksonville, reach the GOM, become a Cat 3, and hit Pensacola. Nuff said.
They said no rain in Florida today but the system in the Bahamas is looking better by the hour even with the dry air. I guess the shear will be kicking up soon.
Let's compare NWS & accuweather on Katrina. Friday 8/26/05 5pm EST accuweather is on the left, NWS on the right. Link.

Looking all go on the launch.
dcw where did nhc say katrina was going to hit until 10pm fri
enough said joe beat them by 24 hours at 1am fri morning he said katrina would be sub 920 and make landfall at 89.5 w hmm
nhc stillhad it going to fla panhandle nuff said and this argument is old anyway you like masters then marry him for god sakes lol
Nice link Buhdog, BB is starting to really pull together.
SAINT, I don't know why I bother to argue the point. Bastardi and Hype U Weather have no cred, hype every little puff of cloud to get more subscribers, and seem to care more about making money than about providing accurate forecasts.

I checked them out carefully as a source of winter weather info (important up here in Canada), and found that they overhyped almost every system and woefully underperformed our own national weather service (and WU). Worst of all, the couple of BIG storms that came through they miscalled - if you had relied on them for advice you were worse off than if you'd read tea leaves..


Hi everyone. ^_^.
thanks pony i posted right after exact point it allowed me to start storm preps early while my nieghbor and friends laughed that morning cause they
were still listening to wlox and nhc fla panhandle
pony thats free accuweather not pro they are notorious for not updating thier map if thats who you are associating bastardi your wrong
pro site is completly different
Check your eyes , take a good look at that link. 5pm friday ~ NWS pegs MS, accweather is on the middle of the panhandle of FL.
SAINT, if you actually looked at Skyepony's link before typing, you'd see the great Hype U Weather in action - calling for a Katrina hit on the FLA panhandle at the same time that NHC already had the landfall pegged..
i agree thier winter weather forecast is awful bastardi said
early dec 2004 thier would be good chance of snow and ice for the gulff coast
as far south as corpus christi localnews said absolutely nothing nws that is
my kids on ms coast sure enjoyed the snowballs on christmas first i ever seen on christmas just
like the folks in corpus christi enjoyed the 12 inches of snow they got i agree pretty bad winter forecast.
51. dcw
Or, we could not pay Crappuweather and get more accurate forecasts. Hmm...tough decision.

Bastardi actually lost to the NHC even on Katrina - even if he jumped on the landfall point a little faster, NHC had the intensity right. And consider - if the forecast track for Katrina had been exactly right, a total evacuation of NOLA would have been unlikely. And think about the results of that.
So I need to pay how much a year to get the accurate updated forecast? The ch 9 local news here on friday was panhandle too.
pony i am doind what i said i would not do i will say this as i said i would i will pray
for you and god bless you .
54. dcw
Don't get me wrong - I don't always agree with the NHC (this is why I make my own forecasts. They usually beat me, but not by much [until I go crazy and forecast a Cat 3 Epsilon =/]), but Accuweather is frigging laughable. Also, take note, the spot Alberto hit was their lowest-risk area in the entire US.
AccuWeather Pro costs about $250 a year. Link
good day folks hope st comes back you all can argue with him although he doesnt seem to be related to masters and mayfield
i should be ashamed for arguing and just be blessed that i can afford to buy extra comforts praise god for it good day
for some reason when they said it would hit the panhandle i had a strange feeling it would hit louisiana and missisippi and then i got freaked out when it came true.
SAINT, if anything you have just confirmed what I'm saying. If Hype U Weather had better info on their paid site and at the same time outdated info on the public site on an issue as important to public safety as a hurricane track, then they are obviously putting money before public safety and deserve to be put out of business for reckless endangerment of the public..
Thanks for the link guy I found the mention of fungus especially interesting. My late night rant had more to do with hypnotizing a physical mechanism for supporting a biological life cycle in the mid atmosphere. I dont know if there is a pathway in the upper atmosphere for the spontaneous creation of hydrocarbons or at least their building blocks as heating increases the upper atmosphere should become more chemically diverse and given enough energy I guess, anything can happen.

I have been interested in these guys if they are indeed more than nothing - Charles Darwin it is said also describes this event in his journeys.
Looking real pretty for the launch.
snow its 96 here you would melt lol have a good day and tell your uncle max and your brother jeff m hello
by the way i hope you all know im just agree to disagree and like you all god bless each and everyone of you billy
and since yall give accupro a nickname heres one for yall masters im clueless in michigan and max iam a jokefield mayfield on the nationa
archeologist center and and weather blob hyped underground just allittle joke in return lol
the shuttle has launch.....
65. WSI
" Does anyone know of a link that archives radar images?"

Stormy, this site should give you the data you need. Need to look at it soon as they don't keep the archives too long.

This site has them as well.

These weather links, and many more, are available on weathercore.com. Also there are other pages of interest, including a tropical page.
I saw it too. There were some clouds so we could only see it a little bit, but it was still neat. The last one was much better though. It was the first time i'd seen one in person too. Very neat.
Textbook launch, that was excellent. No problems at all. Of course, they still have to get back. *crosses fingers*
true
a nice gentle rotation doesn't count for much when you're a pile of clouds and thundershowers about to make landfall - I'm more interested in seeing what happens when it gets to the Gulf..
WSI -

Thank you for the links! The first link had July 2nd available; the second link doesn't have July 2nd available yet.

Took a look at the little storm that got our adrenaline going and I'm glad I didn't have a radar image at the time. Looking at the loop, I'm surprised we saw only one water spout.

Thanks again for the links.

Stormy
hey JPH, I don't see anything and the NHC doesn't see anything but hey this is the real world and anything can happen - I don't want to spoil your weather watching, but I'd say get out on this low activity day and enjoy (which is what I'm off to do). There will be enough round-the-clock action later in the season, and you'll wish for a break (ie for a day like today)..

ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Happy 4th to all! I'm off to enjoy a cookout. And by cookout, I mean sitting in the AC and watching my brother-in-law cook through the sliding glass door. It's friggin hot in G-Vegas, NC!!

Safe fireworks to all and to all a good night!
snowboy new update on Typhoon Ewiniar is in 125kt 916mb is it a cat 5 yet
76. MZT
Yeah I was just looking at the pressures too, seems to be around 1017 most places. The spin is interesting but this just isn't a deep low at all.
no it's not
Taz, it's still a Cat 4 (which is winds in the range 114 - 135 knots), but should be a Cat 5 by morning..
Looks like an impressive rain maker moving into the Fla. coast. I've lived in S. Fl all my life. Hollywood and now Fort Myers. July is notorious for no name storms. Can't tell ya why, except NHC just doesn't seem to think it should happen now.
snowboy oh rats i was hoping it be a cat 5 by now 125kts is not a cat 5 storm so would 125kts make winds 150 or 155mph right around there?
launch beautiful saw the trail all the way over here -- isnt interesting that local forecasts had tropical wave crossing fl as early as monday and it keeps getting pushed back
Fortunately, Ewiniar is up till now a fish storm. But it's predicted to hit southern Japan (as a Cat 1) by the weekend. Those Japanese are sure stoic - could you imagine the furor if a strengthening Cat 4 was bearing down on a US coastline?
Taz, 125 knts is about 143 mph
hey Andrew92 so the winds only went up 5mph on it rats
The japanese have had much experience with Divine Winds...
Happy 4th of July

Accuweather Vs The National Weather Service and The National Hurricane Center.
Joe Bastardi has criticized the National Weather Service for being too conservative in its forecasts.

This was an extract from a biography of Joe Bastardi of Accuweather on Wikipedia, the
Free Encyclopedia.
Question: In your opinion, do you think Joe Bastardi has a point with this statement.

a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Weather456/show.html"
target="_blank">leave comments at my blog.
happy fourth of july everybody
I just logged on since being on early this AM. Is there anything to that spin off Fl? It looks really wound up.
Guys on this loop u can clearly make out the spin right of southeast florida....will it develope convection in the coming hours?looks not to be moving much at the moment.

here the link to the loop....
Link
That didnt work here the loop...
Link
jphurricane2006 wow are mbs falling could it become a TD or TS or hurricane
jphurricane2006 you think we may see 97L be for not to long
I LIVE IN SOUTH FLORIDA IT IS SUNNY OUTSIDE IT MUST BE OFF SURE HEY I THINK WE SHOULD LOOK AT THIS AREA GO TO THE NOAA TO LOOK AT MODELS
From tropical weather discussion: Middle to upper level dry air is curling around the 26n79w low center...within 250 to 300 nm of the center from south to west...and within 200 to 400 nm away from the center and not counting the moisture being generated at a distance of 200 nm away from the center at an inward direction to the center.

Say what?

I presume that the author "Mt" is Mike Tichacek.
swb: "I LIVE IN SOUTH FLORIDA IT IS SUNNY OUTSIDE"

Thanks for the update.

Ewiniar is holding at 125 knots (Cat 4), and is now forecast to hit southwestern Japan on the 8th with 75 kt winds (strong Cat 1)
Michael, Never say Never. You'll just anger the Blob Gods.
Feel the buoy, be the buoy. I love the buoy graphs. For instance, this one.

Pressures always fall near Miami around this time of day because of the tidal changes in barometric pressures. Yep, the pressures have fallen recently, but that is what I generally would expect.

There is a general downward trend the last few days. We'll see where it goes.
watch out the blob god is angry now!LOL!!
Oh, Great Blob in the Sky, we beseech thee, keep these blobs warm. Or if there are a bunch of y'all, please work together on this.
can somone link me surface observations? and perhapse some models to look at?
Niiiiiccceee... LMAO
link

This is all I can find.
The upper low is smack on top of it.
117. MZT
Pressures is south FLA have been working down into the 1014-15 range... a few more MB and maybe this will be worth speculating over.
Its ultra hot and dry outside in north central Florida. I almost died working outside. It would seem with the water temps up so high for much of the day higher than air temp that surface lows would be forming everywhere. It seems surface lows are indeed developing further north this year. I wonder with the weird warm water and all the plumes of heated water showing up near the arctic north if a circulation pattern hadnt developed, especially over water, where the upper atmosphere was descending in the tropics and being heated over unusually warm areas far to the north.
FORZA AZURRI!!!

I cannot sleep tonight because of everyone yelling and honking outside.

Happy 4th to everyone, a little late

121. MZT
Looks like there's another small cyclonic disturbance at 31n 64w. Not that I'm expecting it to develop... just testing my eyes on the loops! :-)
To hell with all these tropical blobs. For once, I'd like to witness a 'cane free season.
Is it possible?
Probable?

The Caneman Superensemble thinketh so!
Link

I updated my blog.
Don't say that caneman!!!! The blob god is furious!!! I can hear him calling for vengeance!!! You're in for it now... May Your God be with you.
An 820Mb blob has developed off the coast of South Florida... Thanks CaneMan... The world is going to end now... REAL NICE!
Caneman will bring to bear all possible rebuking of the blob god. I fear him not. For the CSE art with me.
Link
An 820Mb blob has developed off the coast of South Florida... Thanks CaneMan... The world is going to end now... REAL NICE!

Alright then.......where is this deviant tropical blob? Got a sat link? Radar link?
Checking up on north poles Ice I came across this article.

Meltdown fear as Arctic ice cover falls to record winter low


"Experts at the US Naval Postgraduate School in California think the situation could be even worse. They are about to publish the results of computer simulations that show the current rate of melting, combined with increased access for warmer Pacific water, could make the summertime Arctic ice-free within a decade."
Don't talk about yourself in third person, That doesn't only anger the Blob god... It makes him think you're a freak. Blob God Hates freaks.
Its invisible caneman... You can't see it... BUT TRUST ME!! ITS THERE!

Caneman fears no blobs. Only when the blobs get big, rotate, have good outflow, create storm surge, and have winds over 110 MPH does Caneman tremble.
Even then, he does not tremble much!

Death to all tropical blobs!
Oh yeah, Well... I'm not even afraid of a Hypercane!
jphurricane2006 got a link?
JpH2006 Got a link?
The only spin that the Caneman Super Ensemble sees is the fluff put out by the media on global warming.

Caneman will await for further developments.
Cant you see the hypercanes forming?!
Thanks JFLORIDA for this link - Canadian scientists are predicting a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean within 15 years, so the study from the experts at the US Naval Postgraduate School in California (indicating ice-free in 10 years) is certainly in the ball park of other current predictions..
You people don't believe me ! You're making to much out of a tropical wave off Florida. It will cross the state and become a Patsy Cline.
( I'll fall to pieces )!!!!!
YeeHaw! Northern Hemisphere Around Alone!
Oh ye of little faith.
i want i good yes or no on this one have any one her from jim cantor in the last few day or see him on TWC
Don't watch TWC. Actually, don't have a TV. Perhaps someone else on the board has an answer.
who cares
: chefjeff i do
You people don't believe me ! You're making to much out of a tropical wave off Florida. It will cross the state and become a Patsy Cline.
( I'll fall to pieces )!!!!!


So you're saying this blob won't be a PTPer? Is it gonna be a dow joneser or will it get the ziggy?
You guys and your weather channel superstars. I dont do TV either. Maybe TWC lifestyle was too much and hes in rehab.

This blob off Florida may have the right stuff. The wave it is in is stationary. It has an unusually vigorous rotation. It will be out from under the high if it continues west a few more hours.
well let me say this to the person who said who cares my wife will tell you
i used tohate jim cantore i think the reason was he got to be where i wanted to be for every tropical system
or snowstorm after katrina when he and his crew liked to died at the gpt va
i saw the change him and he stayed and helped our community and has been back countless times while
the national media including mr masters focused on nothing but new orleans
so we in s ms like jim and care met him seems to be a very warm and sincere indivual
i guess maybe if all the focus stayed on fla they would like it more
sorry we had to steal the tropical limelite from fla last year lol yes i know about wilma flintstone and dennis the menace
but they were footpads to katrina or acamille for that matter.
It is a cold core upper level low about to move onshore.
SAINTHURRIFAN , Actually i respect Jim Cantore.
I was being sarcastic to Taz. The man may be on vacation, I know he's paid his dues.
ah jim on vacation thanks for yet me no


oh new updat on Typhoon Ewiniar 130kts and the mb is now down to 910mb
Taz, thanks for the Ewiniar update - you are getting them way ahead of any sites I could find, good for you! It is almost a Cat 5 (just 5 more knots), and should be there by morning..
snowboy so dos this mean the winds are up to 155mph now
Hope everyone had a good 4th. I'm signing off now. Hope iI didn't offend anyone, It's been fun. I'll see what I can cook up tomorrow.
Let me remind everyone Florida relief crews were in Alabama the day of the storm. Ivan was bad too it just hit a more rural area in Florida..
Snowboy, for future reference, he's getting them off the navy's imagery site (google for navy tropical cyclone, it's the first link).

Taz, 130kt = 150mph

Hurrifan, you've passed annoying and hit offensive. You're suggesting that residents of Florida are sorry Katrina hit because the media wasn't focusing on us? Why would you believe that? We are annoyed with you, sir, because you are ignoring all visible evidence and throwing venomous personal attacks around. Just shut up.
dont tell us to shut up what right to you have
Taz man, your diction is awesome!
Grammar too!
Hey JFLORIDA - Just catching up with you, I'm glad you enjoyed that little link about the paleoclimatology at the time of the Permian-Triassic boundary...I really love the subject, and I think it sheds an illuminating light on what is going on in the era of humankind.

I just got back from an evening at the beach; it is good to feel the weather for a change instead of just watching it on my computer monitor. I'll tell everyone, this is what I felt: cold dry air mixing down in gusts from the northeast, alternating with noticeably warmer and more humid breezes directly off of the ocean. It makes me feel like nothing is going to develop around that ULL moving SW into the FL straights, at least in the near-term; the air is just too dry - it is a cold core system. If anything comes from this system, it will have to form under the convection to the east. Just a feeling, totally unscientific, but there it is.

It was a beautiful evening, by the way. I asked my friends the question: half moon at sunset, moon waxing or waning? None of the adults knew the answer. What a world we live in!
Not you taz Colby was talking to SH for talken the smacken 'bout Florida
Colby, the Navy site has Ewiniar at 125 knots..
: weatherwhatweather why thank you
like I said folks, the Bahama blob was nothing to get excited about - be interesting though if any remnants make it to the Gulf side of FLA..
and www, you've got mail
JFLORIDA ah i see now
jp your right colby whether you like or not the ms coast has always taken a back seat
to fla my friend and now no which thier problem was strictly incompetance when you watch
storm stories before katrina hit not one show on thier about camille fredrick or elena or the 47
storm for that matter but andrew till you get sick of seeing and all the other florida hurricanes
by the way i dont even tell my little boys to shut up and thats the way i was raised never tell anybody to shut up and GOD BLESSED ME WITH A 6FT 6 295 PD FRAME BUT YOUR WELCOME TO GET A LADDER
and look me in the eye and tell me to shut up lol
we here in ms just tiered of being the red headed step child and i realize this is a fla dominated blog everystorm seems to be headed to fla and st has everystorm going to la lol
Hey SAINT, there's lots of folks from FLA on here but I wouldn't say they dominate the blog - you're right though that they do get excited any time there's anything near their shores. This is perhaps understandable given their experience of the last few years..
and they way thing are going with the hot sea temps and the big eddy in the gulf i think we are looking at a 2004 year now thats when we need to srat watching the gulf is in augs this is going to be a 2004 year
snowboy my link is onmy blog
Joe Bastardi is a blowhard idiotic meathead. The Geraldo Rivero of weather.
LOFL Cosmic..
no matter how much you dislike or disagree with someone, when you point a finger there are always 4 fingers pointing back at you...try it
no argument there with you guys just dont like colbys tone im not the only one he has spoken to like that and im not blaming the people of fla they were great helping us during katrina and it made us feel good about the help we gave them after the 2004
storms i guess you wonder why i hammer masters well maybe i should tell the truth he does a stupid blog about how katrina might only have been a one for no and a two for the ms coast and im here looking at this destruction down here i emailed the man and told him well he must be a fool sitting in detroit mich and telling
us what the destrution was and he has never been here to see it bastardi came down and toured both areas and the rrita and wilma areas to due his post season scores on the coastline destruction so you know the reason and masters reply to me was arrogant and nasty the same comment most southerners get from some not all of the big
northern city folk. and the blobs off the bahamas will be a major problem if they are going to keep forming in aug sept in same spot remember katrina rita opelia all spun up there plus harvey franklin and nate which fortunately did not hit land
Taz has very good word order and phonetic spellings. Original - Some cool stuff in a similar vein Google Jerry Jackson (first one on the list) and watch his flash pieces if you are over 16 and not easily offended. I dont want to link directly to them here. My personal favorites, when it comes to text and environment are the Salad fingers episodes by David Firth Google (hes the first one - pick cartoons) dont get caught up in the subject, its a contrast with the cartoon media - the innovation is in the relationship between text and visual constructions. It sorta like a conceptual hypertext.
snowboy you dont think they do on the central gulf coast
lol
ahh SAINT, now I see where you're coming from. I agree that Katrina seems to have been stronger than officially designated by NHC (or Dr. Masters)..
hey k 8 those tarheels have al though freshman coming back
should be preseason no 1 and possible nat champs and i think coach k
will have a rebuiding year still will be 20 plus wins and sweet 16 though lol
JFLORIDA thank you

any one thinking of this may be a 2004 year
LOL SAINT, I'm sure anyone would get excited about tropical systems if they're in a hurricane prone area. Which makes me wonder all the more about the stoic Japanese. Typhoon Ewiniar is now 130 knots (910 mb) and heading straight for southern Japan - can you imagine the uproar if a Cat 4 was headed for any US coastline?
and snowboy all these accuweather bashers on the blog
is no different then weather channels blog or accu pros blog for they
bash this weather outlet and each other to iys like sec football if you are a
auburn fan you bash alabama or vice versa if your a gator fan you bash fsu or miami
or georgia goergia tech and we know thier all fine unversities just like the weather
outlets trust me the other blogs bash this one and otehrs just the same as this its good
old southern preference
Yea that Ewiniar storm looking pretty healthy indeed. I think it might be stronger than what they are saying. It's right on the cat 5 brink.
hey maui maui head man i still laugh when lefty thought we were talking about eating flipper lol
This is my first time posting, but I have been lurking around this sight since 2004. Saint, I do feel for the people that were unfortunately in Katrina cross hairs, but to say that Storm stories only focuses on all Florida hurricanes is not 100% accurate. I, as well as many on this Blog, went through back to hurricanes in 2004 (Frances then Jeanne), which if you road through them where very horrifying experiences (especially, the after effects). Now I'm not trying to down-play your (and all of those in her path) experience with Katrina, but we who road out and Frances and Jeanne still have vivid memories of what hurricanes can do to the surroundings we live in.

Now, I must disagree with you, when you say that storm stories focuses on Florida based hurricanes and no where else. I am a frequent watcher of storm stories and I remember seeing quiet a few segments focusing on the horrific events in the wake of Katrina, but not once have I seen a segment on the effects that Frances and Jeanne had on Florida. Now, Please stop saying Storm Stories focuses entirely on Florida based hurricanes, when it apparently doesn't. Not, to downplay Katrina, but you should have been there (Frances and Jeanne were wicked in their own right). I hope I didn't go on and on for my first post, but memories of the devastation that Frances and Jeanne caused are still vivid in my mind.
Hey Fshhead, Ewiniar is looking ominous eh? Yet another major hurricane (Cat 4, and maybe soon a Cat 5) - the global greenhouse is heating up!
tarpville you misunderstood i said before katrina and the reason we get so recognized by w/c for katrina is because
of jim being here for it yes i know those storms were bad but i was refering to pre katrina plus tarp jeanne and frances were bad but i also had to endure camille
190mph fredrick 4 132 elena 125 3 george 105 a 2
plus countless brushes and tropical storms but when have youheard a storm story oncamille the strongest storm to hit us mainland or fredrick and elena stronger than jeanneor francis
they did one on george but only when itt hit the keys never showed ms but they wear andrew floyd charley and lesser storms just can not understand that pre katrina though is what i was referrring
thanks for the link JPH - awesome sat view!
good point jp and goodnight guys i enjoyed talking to yall as always god bless billy
Saint, I agree. I do remember Storm Stories focusing on Charley (2004) and never once mentioned Frances and Jeanne (2004). It's almost like they thought they didn't happen, but they did. Believe me, the way they tended to ignore these storms, upsets me. They apparently ignored the effects of these storms on other states, as well, that where in their path. I hope I didn't come across wrong earlier.
I Meant they ignored these storms as well as other storms on other states
Did jeane and frances really have that much of an impact? Like irreparible dammage? Or was it just a bunch of tornadoes and coastal structure destruction? Stuff like charly and Katrina Utterly enilated entire towns and leveled buildings 50 or more miles inland... Jeane and Frances simply did not do that.
I think TWC tends to focus on primary dammage rather than Secondary dammage.
Welcome Tarpville~ Jeanne & Frances? I was there. I can understand where you draw your handle from. Two years later & I'm still shocked at the amount of places tarped around here. Even PBS's florida show covered Charley but not the rest.

WhatHurricane those storms messed this place up. There is still plenty of damage to be seen here.

New Poster
I was there for all three of those storms. Charley set a standard that the other two didn't reach. That statement in no way is meant to downplay their impact but Charley was a Cat 3 when the eye went over the top of my home. The eye wall of Francis and Jeanne were within 45 miles. Charley took that right turn and just didn't let up once inland.
I agree with guygee. This BB is feeling pretty cold core. Got .34" since after the fireworks at the causeway. Started as a fine mist & ended as a downpour, but cold.

Gotta say thanks to all the others that posted shuttle shots. It's been awesome seeing the launch from every angle but east.
Posted By: snowboy at 3:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2006.
Hey Fshhead, Ewiniar is looking ominous eh? Yet another major hurricane (Cat 4, and maybe soon a Cat 5) - the global greenhouse is heating up!
Y'know that's how I feel about it!!!
Yea Guy it is a nice evening out tonight. Unusually clear again. The stars are beautiful in all that wonderful space. Scorpius has been magnificent this last week.

I think the shuttle launch should become an Independence Day regular event. Its more about what America is about. The fireworks and the militant nationalism are archaic. American independence isnt about celebrating violence its about celebrating the motivation that recognizes the value of independence. Besides, weve all seen enough unproductive, useless explosions lately to last us a lifetime and blind nationalism always leads to trouble. Every other country has that kind of uncreative stuff anyway.
The area SE of Miami sits there long enough it might generate into a tropical depression. It certainly has enough rotation to make it.
If it wasn't for the violence that you so despise there would be no independence.
216. MahFL
Isn't it supposed to get pushed back accross FL by a trough ?
217. IKE
Looks like that ULL has a chance......for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Showers and thunderstorms located over the Bahamas...central and
eastern Cuba... and extreme southeastern Florida...as well
as the adjacent waters... are associated with an upper-level low and
a broad surface trough. This weather system is expected to drift
slowly westward over the Florida Peninsula during the next couple
of days. Although environmental conditions are unfavorable for
tropical cyclone formation at this time... they may become somewhat
more conducive for some slow development of the system during the
next day or two.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.
218. IKE
This from this mornings New Orleans discussion..."The biggest change today is the ominous upper level low pressure
area over the eastern Florida Straits that is drifting
southwestward and gaining some spiral band convective structure...
according to infrared and water vapor satellite imagery. Surface
pressures remain high in this area but this system will have to be
monitored for slow translation to the surface during the next 24
to 48 hours. The conventional numerical models do not show much
development with this feature and given baroclinic environment
aloft in the vicinity of the low would suggest limitations in
tropical development...but a hybrid system can result."
The ULL now entering the Florida Straits this morning looks very impressive on satellite pics this morning. It should be watched for any indications of working itself down to the surfac, as it moves into the SE GOM.
Question:
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season both had 4 major land falling hurricanes in the US, but yet the 2005 season was more destructive and costlier than 2004. What factors contributed to the difference between the two seasons in terms of damages and deaths?

leave answers at my blog or email me
hello
222. IKE
That ULL appears to be drifting westward...now at about 24N, 80.2W..Convection firing around the center.......
The upper low se of fl does look very interesting this morning we do need to keep an eye on it.also I beleive the models on typhoon Ewiniar are making the same mistakes that they made early on for Ivan and Katrina. They are recuving it to early, I believe it will move more west towards china and then n. towards korea. The ECMWF (european model) has been showing this since the beginning. The other models(gfs, Nogaps) are under est. the strenght of the rigde.
What is going on I make a comment and 45 min. later and still no other comments. It seems I killed another blog
Gulf, that drive along the coast will realy open one's eyes. The damage that you observed is the same from Bayou la Battre, AL to New Orleans, mostly Sildell and Chef Montur hightway.

I see it all almost daily.
pcolabob...LOL. Just not much to say about that low right now. There is convection in the area and if it somehow gets hoovered in there it could be trouble. This is just a dangerous area for anything like this to be hanging around in. Water temps are over 85. There is still shear but for how long?
Let's hope Typhoon Ewiniar takes out North Korea!! Serves them right!!
Here's an interesting article:
Link
Agreed Randrewl & ya'll notice... this is one of those crafty blobs:P Look how skillfully it avoids land while attempting to build.

Not a real good situation, nothing good can happen of this thing moving into the Gulf.
hey pcolabob, Ewiniar (still a Cat 4 at 125 knots) has indeed taken a sharp jog to the west..
Yeah. See how forecasts are starting to change on this low? Just 24 hours ago it was supposed to move into the FL peninsula and then get pushed back off the east coast and shoved northward. No mention of the Gulf then. Now....its heading to the Gulf! WTF!
Here we go again!
We will have to watch this closely, this is starting to look down hill. A small depression forming and brushing Florida and travelling up the east coast would be no problem. But, the Gulf is a VERY dangerous place for this thing to go.
New blog up!
CFLweather Yes, this whole thing is in the "Wrong" place at the "Right" time. Very, very risky!