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No change to Nate; Maria fizzles; Katia headed to Britain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on September 10, 2011

Tropical Storm Nate in Mexico's Bay of Campeche continues to have trouble intensifying. Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate has a large, cloud-filled center, and the storm is probably pulling in dry air to its north into its center. Nate is also likely having trouble with all the cool waters it has stirred to the surface. Assuming Nate is able to close off its center from the dry air, it would take the storm at least a day to tighten up its rather large center, form a solid eyewall, and reach hurricane intensity. Nate doesn't have enough time before landfall for that to happen, and it is unlikely Nate will ever become a hurricane. The latest wind probability forecast form NHC gives Nate a 13% chance of reaching hurricane strength on Sunday. Latest radar imagery from Alvarado, Mexico shows heavy rains from Nate are affecting the coast near Veracruz, and heavy rains of 4 - 6 inches will be the main threat from Nate.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Nate is a small storm, and is not likely to bring significant rains to Texas; only extreme South Texas near Brownsville could see an inch or so of rain on Sunday from an outer spiral band of Nate. Our latest wundermap wind forecast map from the European Center model, with the fire layer turned on, shows that Nate's wind field on Saturday and Sunday will not be large enough to fan the fires burning in Texas.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria doesn't look much like a tropical storm--on the latest satellite imagery it looks like a squashed question mark instead of a spiral. The surface circulation center is very poorly defined, and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots has really done the Lesser Antilles Islands a big favor by ripping up Maria. It is doubtful this storm will generate any sustained winds of tropical storm force in the islands, and it is a 50/50 proposition that Maria will degenerate into a tropical disturbance and become ex-Tropical Storm Maria later today. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are mostly east of the islands, and the thunderstorms are not well-organized into spiral bands. The wind shear affecting Maria will probably last through Sunday. By Monday, wind shear is predicted to fall enough so that Maria could potentially organize again. However, the storm is expected to be far from land when that occurs. Bermuda could see a few rain showers from Maria on Wednesday, and Maria may be a threat to southeast Newfoundland late next week.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria shows the the storm looks like a squashed question mark?

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, Canada this morning, and is now racing east-northeast at 52 mph into the open Atlantic. With water temperatures 19°C (66°F) underneath it, Katia has lost its tropical characteristics, and has transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm. Extratropical Storm Katia will continue east-northeastward towards Europe, and on Monday, the storm will pass very close to northern British Isles. The offshore waters of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland can expect storm-force winds of 50 - 60 mph on Monday as Katia roars past to the north. The storm will bring 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast, and likely cause significant tree damage and power failures.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and UKMET models predict the possible development of a tropical wave 6 - 7 days from now off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update by early Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. JLPR2
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Whoopsy daisy...looks like then they'll need a last minute TS warning? I've seen the NHC cancel warings for systems that open into a wave before reaching the islands...but to drop warnings before the storm dissipates is unheard of to me....what a year of weirdness...almost as weird as declaring TS Jose...


LOL!
Yeah, if current trend holds and TS winds expand more then warnings should go up again.
1002. JLPR2
HHs are taking a dive south, probably going to check the LLC again.
Quoting JLPR2:


LOL!
Yeah, if current trend holds and TS winds expand more then warnings should go up again.


Well...if they were ready to raise warnings for Jose in Bermuda...then they ought to get those warnings back for the NE Antilles for Maria...

I keep bringing up Jose...but I found that storm super annoying for some reason.....LOL
Quoting Neapolitan:
Monomania (mah'-nuh--may'-nee-uh) - noun (New Latin) 1. Pathological obsession with one idea or subject. 2. Intent concentration on or exaggerated enthusiasm for a single subject or idea.
eXAMPLE, dR. Masters' bloggers.... lol...
1010. pcola57
Quoting BahaHurican:
eXAMPLE, dR. Masters' bloggers.... lol...


LOL..LOL!!
Quoting BahaHurican:
eXAMPLE, dR. Masters' bloggers.... lol...



BAD, BAD, BAD...........LOL
I'd like to commemorate the Delta II last flight today with it's most spectacular failure, one of the two of 147 launches that failed. I remember being urged to stay indoors as Tom Terry tracked the explosion cloud on radar.

Quoting JLPR2:


LOL!
Yeah, if current trend holds and TS winds expand more then warnings should go up again.
Well, what amazed me is the fact that is the first time that I've seen a COC of name storm pass over or less than 10 miles from an Island and still that island is not having at least a tropical storm watch
Quoting BahaHurican:
eXAMPLE, dR. Masters' bloggers.... lol...


Hey...that includes me!...LOL
1017. JLPR2
And there she is.
Quoting Skyepony:
I'd like to commemorate the Delta II last flight today with it's most spectacular failure, one of the two of 147 launches that failed. I remember being urged to stay indoors as Tom Terry tracked the explosion cloud on radar.



Well...I was rooting earlier comments ago wishing I could live close enough to see launches like that...but now that you mention this story I changed my mind....
1020. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Well, what amazed me is the fact that is the first time that I've seen a COC of name storm pass over or less than 10 miles from an Island and still that island is not having at least a tropical storm watch


I remembered Olga passed over us as a STS and we never got a warning, just high winds advisories.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well...if they were ready to raise warnings for Jose in Bermuda...then they ought to get those warnings back for the NE Antilles for Maria...

I keep bringing up Jose...but I found that storm super annoying for some reason.....LOL
I don't blame you I still have to laugh when they made me swallow Jose as an storm,So funny,,.according to them it has the characteristic of an storm, but some thunders storms also have TS winds and they are'nt name.
I think Maria has finally found her niche... never mind trying to solve that problem, she's got so many issues that she can barely solve herself. And Nate looks like he will be a hurricane in the morning advisory. Both of these storms can't make up their minds. However, Nate looks as though he's going to pull a Stan where Karl hit... which could be rather catastrophic.

Maria is looking as if she'll indeed be a hurricane. This is a testament to how hostile the Atlantic Basin's been in the upper levels this year... and just how strong Maria and Katia really could've been/could be. Irene was a category one with a pressure of a srong category 3, too. Those are some persistent females.

1023. pcola57
Quoting Skyepony:
I'd like to commemorate the Delta II last flight today with it's most spectacular failure, one of the two of 147 launches that failed. I remember being urged to stay indoors as Tom Terry tracked the explosion cloud on radar.



All I can say is WOW!!
Thats quite an expensive fireworks display!!
Quoting JLPR2:


I remembered Olga passed over us as a STS and we never got a warning, just high winds advisories.


Are there at least ANY high wind warnings for Maria right now?

PS...Olga was a subtropical cyclone and expected to stay one in your area I belive...and they issue gale (high wind) warnings for subtropical cyclones I believe....
1026. 3211976
Is it raining where you are? The PR radar doesn't show rain at your location.
Quoting CaribBoy:
I'm in St Martin Island! (sorry my quote button doesn't work!) Looks like gusts aren't far from reaching ts force.

1027. JLPR2
And the plot thickens, instead of weakening like they were last pass, winds are getting stronger as they close in on the circulation.



Lets see just were the winds weaken.
Quoting Skyepony:
I'd like to commemorate the Delta II last flight today with it's most spectacular failure, one of the two of 147 launches that failed. I remember being urged to stay indoors as Tom Terry tracked the explosion cloud on radar.



I was in high school when that happened... they put classes on lockdown until the toxic plume passed to the south (winds were NNE that day). I remember that one all to well. It was a bad time for them as it was just before or just after, they had another one explode right after launch as well.
Goodnite......SOME BLOG TONITE!
Quoting JLPR2:
And the plot thickens, instead of weakening like they were last pass, winds are getting stronger as they close in on the circulation.



Lets see just were the winds weaken.


Strange...wouldn't expect a center reformation to the south or strengthening with convection sheared off to the northeast...yet another surprise for the year....

This is why you don't remove warnings when a tropical cyclone passes so close...wait till it passes to remove the warnings....
Quoting JLPR2:
And there she is.
So close to my house, feels strange after so many years to see a tropical storm upon us and not having watches or warning and not intermediate advisories, weird to say the least.
Models are doing terrible with Maria..not seeing much skill or a model with a clue.


Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well...I was rooting earlier comments ago wishing I could live close enough to see launches like that...but now that you mention this story I changed my mind....


I do prefer WNC to here 7 months out of the year.
Quoting JLPR2:


I remembered Olga passed over us as a STS and we never got a warning, just high winds advisories.
Yes i do too, but that was December 3, not very uncommon climatologycally speaking, this in Sept. 10 peak of the season, moving only at 10mph, anything could happen, is Saturday night, most kids are celebrating there is not storm, parting in Pubs all around the islands, specially in eastern Puerto Rico...
Quoting HuracanTaino:
I don't blame you I still have to laugh when they made me swallow Jose as an storm,So funny,,.according to them it has the characteristic of an storm, but some thunders storms also have TS winds and they are'nt name.


Jose...the biggest "what the..." moment of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season....
1035. JLPR2
Just went outside for a moment and noticed a "creepy atmosphere", the only sound I heard were leaves moving in a slight breeze. Crickets seem too quiet, noticed the same thing the day before Irene. Probably feeling the closeness of Maria.
Quoting FLdewey:


Absolutely. In addition to 341 brothers I didn't personally know, I lost 2 firefighters I was friends with and went to school with. Those were 2 of the most difficult funerals I've ever been to in my life.

Politics aside I am thankful for the sacrifice the first responders made on that day in an effort to save lives.

Kind of reminds you how insignificant bickering with people you don't really know on the internet is. ;-)
Dewey, I plussed this comment... and now I think I have a better grasp on ur humour....

Quoting P451:
LOL Nate. No convection...still.




Yet they're pushing 65mph winds with the threat to upgrade to Hurricane for this system?

Please....



This says it all.
Models are doing much better with Nate compared to Maria. MRFO has overtaken Ukmet & GFDL for the lead.
Quoting JLPR2:
Just went outside for a moment and noticed a "creepy atmosphere", the only sound I heard were leaves moving in a slight breeze. Crickets seem too quiet, noticed the same thing the day before Irene. Probably feeling the closeness of Maria.
Yes very typical,even the Coquis are quiet tonight ,and those clouds are speeding from to the SE...in my area...
Haven't been on much today, but the NHC has the wrong area hatched in the Eastern Atlantic...

Probably if it keeps firing Storms for another 12 HR they will start to officially  monitoring it.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Haven't been on much today, but the NHC has the wrong area hatched in the Eastern Atlantic...


Maria is a hurricane ,,can't believe it
1046. pcola57
Quoting Skyepony:
Models are doing much better with Nate compared to Maria. MRFO has overtaken Ukmet & GFDL for the lead.


Great Link...Thanks Skyepony..

Quoting tomas5tex:



You must remember who the president is.....You really think he would do that....You have to have a back bone to have the guts to do that....He doesn't.


Please take this discussion to another room..We here would appreciate it..

Quoting HuracanTaino:
Yes very typical,even the Coquis are quiet tonight ,and those clouds are speeding from to the SE...in my area...


Ok...I gotta ask..what are Coquis HurrcanTaino?
This a weather chat based website. Take your personal issues elsewhere!!! Thanks
must be an error, check the fcst point, it says cat1
Where did you find that info?
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Maria is a hurricane ,,can't believe it

Quoting pcola57:


Great Link...Thanks Skyepony..



Please take this discussion to another room..We here would appreciate it..



Ok...I gotta ask..what are Coquis HurrcanTaino?


P.R. frogs.
1052. Relix
Quoting MississippiWx:
Haven't been on much today, but the NHC has the wrong area hatched in the Eastern Atlantic...



Well that looks hot.
Quoting pcola57:


Great Link...Thanks Skyepony..



Please take this discussion to another room..We here would appreciate it..



Ok...I gotta ask..what are Coquis HurrcanTaino?
the Coqui is our belove tiny frog, a symbol, for us , and we love its sound, coqui, coqui,,you know you are home when you hear that sound, for some reason when storms approaches the island the quiet down,,well so the say..
Can't fix stupid?
Quoting HuracanTaino:
must be an error, check the fcst point, it says cat1
1055. Gearsts
Quoting JLPR2:


Considering the fact that the wind field is growing makes me think TS force winds will be felt and...


I guess that the last recon fix being south of the 11pm position just adds to the problem.
We are gona get the weak side if we get anything.
1056. pcola57
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


P.R. frogs.


Thank you Private...I've seen them mentioned many times an thought they were a native insect...I learn something every day..
Weather here now,
69 degrees with 88% RH..Nice bright waning moon...good night to go flounder gigging..LOL
fcst points clearly says Cat 1 does anybody notice that error ?
1058. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
fcst points clearly says Cat 1 does anybody notice that error ?


Where?
ts last time I checked. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.ht ml
Quoting HuracanTaino:
fcst points clearly says Cat 1 does anybody notice that error ?
1060. Gearsts
Quoting HuracanTaino:
So close to my house, feels strange after so many years to see a tropical storm upon us and not having watches or warning and not intermediate advisories, weird to say the least.
Theres no need for warnings i think.
1061. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
We are gona get the weak side if we get anything.


Rain is our main concern, was talking about the NE Leeward Islands.
1062. JLPR2
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 05:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 14L in 2011
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 5:03:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°36'N 63°16'W (18.6N 63.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 29 miles (47 km) to the NNW (333°) from The Valley, Anguilla.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,454m (4,770ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NNE (18°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 94° at 56kts (From the E at ~ 64.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NNE (13°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the east quadrant at 1:45:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FREQ LTG N THRU E QUADS

HHs probably finished.
Quoting JLPR2:


Where?
Here in the trop fcts points, in the WU maps ...
1064. pcola57
Quoting HuracanTaino:
the Coqui is our belove tiny frog, a symbol, for us , and we love its sound, coqui, coqui,,you know you are home when you hear that sound, for some reason when storms approaches the island the quiet down,,well so the say..


Thank you HurricainTaino..
Sounds like you love your beautiful island very much my friend..and especially the nature there..
Quoting pcola57:


Thank you Private...I've seen them mentioned many times an thought they were a native insect...I learn something every day..
Weather here now,
69 degrees with 88% RH..Nice bright waning moon...good night to go flounder gigging..LOL


hot weather and full moon made the elk hunting very tough.
1066. pcola57
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


hot weather and full moon made the elk hunting very tough.


LOL...LOL!!!

And on that note I'm gonna call it an evening..
'Till next time...ya'll take care
1067. Gearsts
Quoting JLPR2:


Rain is our main concern, was talking about the NE Leeward Islands.
Oh ok sorry ^^
1068. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Here in the trop fcts points, in the WU maps ...


I don't see anything like that. Seems identical to the NHC cone.
Quoting pcola57:


Thank you HurricainTaino..
Sounds like you love your beautiful island very much my friend..and especially the nature there..
Quoting JLPR2:


I don't see anything like that. Seems identical to the NHC cone.
well go to the wu, hit where is says central atlantic map or caribean map, and then click on the trop fcst points when it shows where the storm is heading and it has the symbol of a hurricane cat 1, instead of the storm symbol,,not important must be an error... they made.
So, Maria at the moment is moving W  WNW? Probably a wobble.
Quoting JLPR2:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 05:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 14L in 2011
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 5:03:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°36'N 63°16'W (18.6N 63.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 29 miles (47 km) to the NNW (333°) from The Valley, Anguilla.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,454m (4,770ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NNE (18°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 94° at 56kts (From the E at ~ 64.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NNE (13°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the east quadrant at 1:45:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FREQ LTG N THRU E QUADS

HHs probably finished.

1071. JLPR2
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
So, Maria at the moment is moving W  WNW? Probably a wobble.



Seems like WNW.
1073. JNCali
Very interesting range of topics tonight! Just got home and had a lovely lightening show out over the SoCal desert on the drive. Never seen lightening going off so big and with less than 10 seconds between strikes as I can remember.. That's probably nothing compared to what you guys see in the South.. Good night all..
check the Puerto Rico radar doppler, coudn't post it here ,,.the COC is showing
Quoting JNCali:
Very interesting range of topics tonight! Just got home and had a lovely lightening show out over the SoCal desert on the drive. Never seen lightening going off so big and with less than 10 seconds between strikes as I can remember.. That's probably nothing compared to what you guys see in the South.. Good night all..
In the marshes of Louisiana lightening strikes have made me see Jesus
It seem that the wind shear is relaxing a bit an now is expanding west.
What The .......


1078. Patrap
1079. Patrap
1080. Patrap
Tropical Storm NATE
...NATE IS NOT STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY...



If the NHC say Nate is not strengthening, why do they have Hurricane watches and warnings in effect.
1082. JLPR2
Maria has a question.

XD

Sure looks like a question mark.
Half time score

USA 0 Ireland 10
1085. 7544
i dont think maria knows witch way to go imo

and coming to a model near you for those just getting on the blog Link
Quoting Patrap:
the center appears to be moving west
1087. 7544
Quoting HuracanTaino:
the center appears to be moving west


agree and shes still bblowing up at this hour
1088. JLPR2
Her rain has organized into bands.


Got a light one over me.
Quoting 7544:


agree and shes still bblowing up at this hour
I wonder what could happen ,if this trend continues for a few hours she will be upon us,,and without no watches or warnings from the NHC.
Quoting Skyepony:


It dished very intense, loud cloud to ground lightning & heavy rain. Went riding during a break & at one point I could hear & feel the lightning vibration but it was too far away to see.


Last Delta II launch this morning. It is carrying the twin Grail satellites to map the moon core to crust. Delta II have been launching for 22 years. A few blew up. The most spectacular one was ~1996.

There is a close up too in this series. From my yard..
Very cool, thanks ...
Quoting JLPR2:
Her rain has organized into bands.


Got a light one over me.
Yes and the COC CIRCULATION MOVING WESTWARD, OR AT LEAST LOOKS LIKE IT.
1092. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Yes and the COC CIRCULATION MOVING WESTWARD, OR AT LEAST LOOKS LIKE IT.


That could be an illusion created as the convection expands to cover the LLC.

But I'm not completely sure, recon fixes showed a change from NW, to WNW. So who knows, maybe it changed to W.
The Bermuda High has suddenly spread its wings.

1094. JLPR2
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
The Bermuda High has suddenly spread its wings.



What the! Where's the weakness? O.o
good morning!
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011

ALTHOUGH SHEARED...FINALLY MARIA LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED. IN FACT...BOTH TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS IN MARIA UNTIL AROUND 0600 UTC...AND FOUND THAT THE CIRCULATION WAS BETTER DEFINED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ONLY...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 50 KNOTS. HAVING SAID THAT...WATER VAPOR IMAGES STILL SHOW THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF MARIA PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING THIS TROUGH...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN RESILIENT AND IT HAS NOT GONE YET.

ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS THE LGEM MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSERVATIVE...BUT IN GENERAL MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE SAME STEERING PATTERN THAT IN GENERAL HAS PREVAILED THIS SEASON... AND MOST LIKELY WILL FORCE MARIA TO MOVE ON A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST LIES IN MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IT IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MARIA WELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN RECURVING IT BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND BERMUDA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 19.0N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 20.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 21.5N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 22.5N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 23.5N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 27.0N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 43.0N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011

...MARIA EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY AWAY FROM THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 63.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL MOVE GRADUALLY AWAY FROM THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

odd looking storm
1098. luigi18
Quoting Chicklit:
odd looking storm
yeap
1100. vince1
dupe
Maria has kept reorganizing its COC N
located NE of PR now...



Quoting AussieStorm:
Tropical Storm NATE
...NATE IS NOT STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY...



If the NHC say Nate is not strengthening, why do they have Hurricane watches and warnings in effect.
Reminds me of matthew from last year.
Good morning, all. Our forecast for the next week is the same as it's been for months, sunny and mid-nineties.
Quoting Vincent4989:
Hey guys.... it's the anniversary of 9/11. Come on, cheer up, at least Bin Laden is dead.


Back to topic, anyone has a creepy model forecast?


Sure!

Try this one out.

Florida in the bullseye on 9/23.

posted earlier,enjoy.

Link
Nate was the little engine that could but never did.
Good Morning.
Good morning.

A few fast moving showers have moved thru PR in the past few hours but nothing bad. The winds have been in normal speeds so far and from the NE.That direction will change as Maria moves more to the north of PR. The flash flood watch was trimmed to only the Eastern third of the island. Let's see how much rain that tail brings,hopefully much less than what the Irene one brought (Around 20.00 inches)
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Nate was the little engine that could but never did.
Thanks to upwelling and dry air.

Meanwhile in the WPAC...
TCFA declared on 91W.

Sneaky Link
In Barbuda couple hours ago reported winds of 34.5mph & gust of 48mph Less than 1 hour ago gust up to 38mph.
And there is no tropical storm Warning.
Don now why they cancel the TS Warning when the COC of a TS was passing over the lesser Antilles.


1091 HuracanTaino "Yes and the COC [SHOUTing tuned downward] circulation moving westward, or at least looks like it."
1092 JLPR2 "That could be an illusion created as the convection expands to cover the LLC.
But I'm not completely sure, recon fixes showed a change from NW, to WNW. So who knows, maybe it changed to W.
"

More westward than before but still NW at 306.9degrees as of TS.Maria's_6amGMT_ATCF.
303.75degrees is midway between WNW and NW.
Copy&paste 16.0n60.2w-16.9n61.2w, 16.9n61.2w-17.5n62.0w, 17.5n62.0w-18.1n62.6w, 18.1n62.6w-18.6n63.3w, komn, 18.1n62.6w-29.33n81.059w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the mapping for 10Sept_6amGMT-to-11Sept_6amGMT, the straightline projection, and other useful info.

The GCM really is a handy tool. Just connect 2*position coordinates with a dash and:
It automatically comes up with the heading between them.
It automatically comes up with the distance between them. Divide that distance by the number of hours between position fixes for the average travel-speed.

And it makes straightline projections relatively easy: Eyeball the map in the direction that the line-segment is pointing toward. If it's toward open ocean, resize the map by adding an airport code on a continental landmass (or on a couple of fairly separated islands) in vaguely the same general direction. eg:
If the TropicalCyclone is east of the Caribbean, BBQ and POS are memorably useful.
If north of the Caribbean, JAX and MEO .
If in the Caribbean, nothin' says Haiti better than CYA, or sez Jamaica better than POT, or the YucatanPeninsula better than CUN (for CanCUN), or Nicaragua better than PUZ
(for PUZzle... ya hadda'a'been there).
And TAM, GPT, MIA, and CME encircle the Gulf of Mexico. ("see me" is the hardest to remember: TAMpico, GulfPorT, and MIAmi are fairly obvious)
Read the heading between the two most recent position coordinates. And connect the 2nd most recent position to an airport code in the direction you think its heading until ya get a "close enough" match.

Typing "airports near [island, city, country]" into GoogleMaps will get you the airport names, and the GCM will give you the airport codes. If you click the GCM links, it'll also give you the airport(decimal)coordinates to fiddle around with until "close enough" becomes an actual match.

I've done it so often that I've bookmarked GCM maps filled with nothing but island and coastline airport codes. Saves "looking up" time.

* And only 2. Connecting more-than-two coordinates doesn't work the way ya'd want. You hafta repeat the middle coordinate to create two connected line segments.
Nate made landfall.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
700 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...NATE MAKING LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 96.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.67 INCHES

even the Virgin Islands have received gust of 34mph
Quoting whepton3:


Sure!

Try this one out.

Florida in the bullseye on 9/23.

posted earlier,enjoy.

Link


But watch where it goes after Florida. G'morning everyone.
1118. FLdewey
Moist-cha!



That's Katia's remnants at 958mb. Roughly the same by the time it reaches Britain, though not as closely wound:

No wonder these little guys are quite



Link
Why hasn't the NHC published an 8 AM update?
1122. aquak9
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, all. Our forecast for the next week is the same as it's been for months, sunny and mid-nineties.

G'morning ais...and I see houston, austin and dallas are back up over 100's for the week.

I really worry now, with a fairly quick return to LaNina...if texas is ever gonna the rains they need. Not just texas as defined geographically, but that whole area.
Quoting Cotillion:


That's Katia's remnants at 958mb. Roughly the same by the time it reaches Britain, though not as closely wound:

im alreadyy feeling ehr effects in london shows how far her winds extend getting about 15 mph winds at the moment with gusts to 28
Quoting BioWeather:
Why hasn't the NHC published an 8 AM update?


It has:

Link
1125. BDADUDE
Quoting stormchaserDAZ:
im alreadyy feeling ehr effects in london shows how far her winds extend getting about 15 mph winds at the moment with gusts to 28
Hey Daz. You chased Katia all the way to London?
Quoting stormchaserDAZ:
im alreadyy feeling ehr effects in london shows how far her winds extend getting about 15 mph winds at the moment with gusts to 28


That's not Katia. She arrives tomorrow.
Quoting BioWeather:
Why hasn't the NHC published an 8 AM update?


#19


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

Maria not threatening land so no intermediate advisories
Good morning everyone, and an special Good Morning to America, a beautiful morning here in my location in FL. watching the memorial services for 9/11 and bright blue skies in NYC.
Quoting stormchaserDAZ:
im alreadyy feeling ehr effects in london shows how far her winds extend getting about 15 mph winds at the moment with gusts to 28


Just been down the beach in Seascale to see how things were. 30mph solid with higher gusts in the squalls. Sea higher than normal for a 7.6 tide. But the SW winds have been blowing for two weeks and piling up water in the Irish Sea.

Higher tides still tonight and tomorrow lunchtime with much higher winds expected. I'll make a vid if it's exciting.

Stay safe!
Quoting aquak9:

G'morning ais...and I see houston, austin and dallas are back up over 100's for the week.

I really worry now, with a fairly quick return to LaNina...if texas is ever gonna the rains they need. Not just texas as defined geographically, but that whole area.


Yes, heading back up into the triple digits. People are scared. A friend called me last night that her daughter called her that a barn was on fire a mile from her house. The mention of a fire is enough to make people anxious and unable to sleep. I'm hearing this from a couple of friends in Texas. Here in my part of Louisiana, 18 miles from Texas, it's not as bad, but each time we here of a fire within an hour of us people are watching it closely. For the first time ever, people here are abiding by the burn ban. Usually they just tend to ignore them and burn things anyway. Not now.
1131. pottery
Good Morning all.
Strong squall early this morning with winds from the south and west with heavy almost horizontal rain for about 45 minutes.
First real rain in 2 weeks...

Dark and overcast right now with thunder rolling to the west.

A NICE way to start the day!
1132. LargoFl
Quoting aquak9:

G'morning ais...and I see houston, austin and dallas are back up over 100's for the week.

I really worry now, with a fairly quick return to LaNina...if texas is ever gonna the rains they need. Not just texas as defined geographically, but that whole area.
good morning all, sunny and warm here in florida and my prayers for you folks in texas
If everyone will stop what they're doing and pause with me for a moment of silence as we remember the victims of American Airlines flight 11 the first of 2 planes that crashed into the world trade center around this time 10 years ago at 8:46am.
Quoting yonzabam:


That's not Katia. She arrives tomorrow.


Yeah, and you'll feel minimal effects in London tomorrow anyway.
1135. aquak9
ais- something most folks don't think of, is trailers being towed. Often, folks will attach a heavy chain, over and under the hitching ball, and around the neck of the trailer. How many times I have seen a chain come loose, and drag on the asphalt, creating sparks.

Anyone who tows anything, needs to check and recheck that chain. Something as simple as that, can cause a fire.
1136. aquak9
Quoting GTcooliebai:
If everyone will stop what they're doing and pause with me for a moment of silence as we remember the victims of American Airlines flight 11 the first of 2 planes that crashed into the world trade center around this time 10 years ago at 8:46am.


quiet pause, I will be here with you, GT...
1137. pottery
Quoting GTcooliebai:
If everyone will stop what they're doing and pause with me for a moment of silence as we remember the victims of American Airlines flight 11 the first of 2 planes that crashed into the world trade center around this time 10 years ago at 8:46am.

Done.
Thanks.
Thought i would put this out their incase anyone missed it injoy


KSC Soil Moisture and Visibility Sensor Network Data No Longer Available With the end of the NASA Space Shuttle Program funding for the KSC Soil Moisture and Visibility Network data has been terminated and will no longer appear on our website.
A smaller, modified team of 2 people will remain to support the Johnson Space Center and future missions, a handful of its experienced, highly-skilled forecasters all 5 of them will transfer to Southern Region Headquarters in Fort Worth, Texas to form a core group of Emergency Response Meteorologists.
This project represents a vital restructuring of our resources towards providing immediate and strategic weather information to mitigate the loss of life and support the economic well-being of the nation during high-impact events."


Link
1139. FLdewey
24 new fires in TX yesterday... yeesh.

These are both photos on the Bastrop fire from Austin (From last week, not current)



Oh, and to the yokle who claimed the following photo was fake, it indeed is real.


Quoting GTcooliebai:
If everyone will stop what they're doing and pause with me for a moment of silence as we remember the victims of American Airlines flight 11 the first of 2 planes that crashed into the world trade center around this time 10 years ago at 8:46am.


Done
Quoting aquak9:


quiet pause, I will be here with you, GT...
I hope you guys don't mind me doing it for all the events that happen that day.
Quoting aquak9:
ais- something most folks don't think of, is trailers being towed. Often, folks will attach a heavy chain, over and under the hitching ball, and around the neck of the trailer. How many times I have seen a chain come loose, and drag on the asphalt, creating sparks.

Anyone who tows anything, needs to check and recheck that chain. Something as simple as that, can cause a fire.


I never thought of that, but you're right. There are so many small commonplace things we do that can start a fire. And we don't always think of them.
1143. FLdewey
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I hope you guys don't mind me doing it for all the events that happen that day.


I think taking about it is fine, but I don't think we need a live recreation of the events of that day on this weather blog. It was a difficult day for me personally, and I'm sure for many others.
Quoting stormchaserDAZ:
im alreadyy feeling ehr effects in london shows how far her winds extend getting about 15 mph winds at the moment with gusts to 28


I'm feeling nothing here up in Ipswich. Katia is about a day away mate. Its actually clear skys and very sunny :)
Hard to believe 9\11 was already 10 years ago.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I hope you guys don't mind me doing it for all the events that happen that day.


I don't mind at all. I'm watching. And writing to my son who is in Afghanistan. Teaching on a military post and being a military dependent for 27 years, 9.11 and all that's happened...
1148. FLdewey
Probably wishful thinking... but I wonder if some remnant Nate moisture will make it to Texas.



Don't think it would be much if it made it that far... but you take what you can get right?
Quoting aquak9:

G'morning ais...and I see houston, austin and dallas are back up over 100's for the week.

I really worry now, with a fairly quick return to LaNina...if texas is ever gonna the rains they need. Not just texas as defined geographically, but that whole area.
Mornin Aqua,

You may need to go visit any friends you may have in Texas and make some of those famous Blueberry Muffins :)
Quoting FLdewey:
Probably wishful thinking... but I wonder if some remnant Nate moisture will make it to Texas.



Don't think it would be much if it made it that far... but you take what you can get right?


Wouldn't that be wonderful! I think it was Levi last night when I was lurking and reading that said there is a chance for rain in about two weeks or so?
any new storms out there ?
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
In Barbuda couple hours ago reported winds of 34.5mph & gust of 48mph Less than 1 hour ago gust up to 38mph.
And there is no tropical storm Warning.
Don now why they cancel the TS Warning when the COC of a TS was passing over the lesser Antilles.
I suppose they could have left the TS watch, even if they downgraded from the warning. However, I believe they dropped the warnings because they genuinely don't expect Antigua, Barbuda, the Virgin Islands to get more than what would be typically seen in a Twave or TD....
800 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT NATE IS LOCATED FARTHER
NORTH...ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND TUXPAN...

THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM NATE IS LOCATED FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED...NEAR 20.2N 96.5W AT 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC. THIS
POSITION IS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN TUXPAN
AND VERACRUZ MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT NATE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
TUXPAN AND VERACRUZ IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...20.2N 96.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.67 INCHES
1154. P451
Nate was a "tropical" system with no convection for days on end. Good to see it GONE.





Maria continues to be a blob without a surface feature worthy of a declared tropical cyclone. Has been like this for 3 days now.







I wonder how many more garbage storms the NHC can bend it's own rules for.

Quoting FLdewey:
Moist-cha!

NW GoM is not drinking the Koolaid, though... it's dry as Hades over theah...
So, NHC, is Nate making landfall or not?

Maybe he's just not very good at making a three point turn. Needs to try again.
BTW, good morning to all.

Hope you have had some delicious coffee, or the morning beverage of your choice.
1158. FLdewey
Quoting P451:
Nate was a "tropical" system with no convection for days on end. Good to see it GONE.





Maria continues to be a blob without a surface feature worthy of a declared tropical cyclone. Has been like this for 3 days now.







I wonder how many more garbage storms the NHC can bend it's own rules for.



I think they should start naming outflow boundaries... had a nice one blow through last night about 9pm.
1159. FLdewey
LOL Baha... yeah if we could just get that boundary to head NW.

Might be time for the experimental tractor beam.

Full power!
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, good morning to all.

Hope you have had some delicious coffee, or the morning beverage of your choice.


Good morning to you, too, Baha. Just finished my second cup of coffee. Also made 'soak all night and then bake' french toast. Here's a plate of some to all here this morning.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I don't mind at all. I'm watching. And writing to my son who is in Afghanistan. Teaching on a military post and being a military dependent for 27 years, 9.11 and all that's happened...
Yeah I figured you all might be watching it on tv., so just be mindful to keep a moment of silent prayer throughout the day, in remembrance of the innocent victims who lost their lives that day, and to all the first responders, the FDNY, NYPD, and all who stayed back to help rescue those who were hurt in the fires in the WTC and Pentagon, and to the soldiers fighting over seas. I just want to say thank you and appreciate what you all have done for this country.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good morning everyone, and an special Good Morning to America, a beautiful morning here in my location in FL. watching the memorial services for 9/11 and bright blue skies in NYC.
Yes, it is a special day. My thoughts are with the people who lost friends and family 10 years ago. America and most of the rest of the world are your extended family today. We are here with open hearts.

Thank you to all of the Firefighters and first responders across the Country. Wouldn't it be great if we could all come together like we did on that day. It didn't matter what race or color you were or what political party you were associated with. Americans all came together.

Honestly You all are the true hero's today. Thank You!



Thanks to the Hero Dogs too :}

1164. P451
From RECON last night:

THE STORM STILL LACKS A WELL DEFINED CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION.


They're headed back in let's see if they find a circulation center worthy of being a named storm.





==============

Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
In Barbuda couple hours ago reported winds of 34.5mph & gust of 48mph Less than 1 hour ago gust up to 38mph.
And there is no tropical storm Warning.
Don now why they cancel the TS Warning when the COC of a TS was passing over the lesser Antilles.





Because the system has not been a tropical cyclone for some time. They acknowledge this in multiple advisories using various wording going back a couple of days now that it's surface feature is a mess. They discontinued advisories based on that. Yet they kept the system named. One forecaster admitting that he "wasn't giving up" on the system. Pretty much tells you it has not qualified as a tropical cyclone for quite some time. They know it has not, but kept it named believing it would shortly reacquired the surface feature. It didn't.

It may be reorganizing, it may continue to strengthen, it may develop a circulation center worthy of tropical cyclone status.

But for now, and two days prior, it has not. Yet, they kept it named.

This is where the confusion has come in.

How can they have a declared tropical storm come through a land area and have discontinued tropical storm warnings?

Simple: It did not qualify as a tropical storm.


so whats the next storm comming?
i was on here last tuesday and they said maria would be a cat2 by tommorow knocking on floridas doorstep? where is it now ?
Barbuda and Antigua had TS Condition this morning. No TS Warning
jut checked both gfs runs gfs shows tropical storm forming in the carribean and moving due north across cuba and into the carolinas. its believable and its not. the euro is more believable with a 1006mb system east of the yucatan
Yeah, Maria's had serious problems. If it doesn't have a CoC, that's one strong tropical wave though. 60mph sustained (maybe closer to 50mph, but still very strong for that).

Thing is P451, what should they have done if Maria kept having and then losing and then having a CoC?
Been looking at this Canadian high that is moving over the NE in about 8 days and wondering what the effect it will have on the steering of any development next week?

1171. BDADUDE
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
Barbuda and Antigua had TS Condition this morning. No TS Warning
Sometimes by mistake our post is sent to Barbuda!!
In honor of the 51st anniversary of Hurricane Donna, I have put together some of my family's stories and some videos about Hurricane Donna, a storm that will never be forgotten here in Fort Myers, FL and in many other places as well:

CLICK HERE FOR MY HURRICANE DONNA TRIBUTE
with the oceans white with foam
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


#19


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

Maria not threatening land so no intermediate advisories
SOME HOW they decided that if storms passes near or over you, but you only received 34mph winds gusting to 45mph, like some of the islands right now ,because they are incapable of any margin of error, they don't need to provide watches and warning ,thus no intermediate advisories.
dont mock jose..... jose is a very patriotic name its the first 2 words of our national anthemn
Quoting scooster67:
Been looking at this Canadian high that is moving over the NE in about 8 days and wondering what the effect it will have on the steering of any development next week?

uf that pattern stick than a cape verde develoment would move into the east coast IF there wasnt a trough. from the carribean if anything in the SW carribean starts to get going like the models show it would most likely go around the high so a nw motion to a north motion so cuba the panhandle eastern gulf and carolinas would have to watch out
Just want to say I hope today reminds all Americans that they have to pull together, the way they have always done in the face of this kind of tragedy, to overcome the effects of the economic disaster which currently threatens the United States of America.

There are lots of people around the world who are rooting for you guys....

Quoting aislinnpaps:


Good morning to you, too, Baha. Just finished my second cup of coffee. Also made 'soak all night and then bake' french toast. Here's a plate of some to all here this morning.
Did u say FRENCH TOAST???
[heads to the refreshment table before everything disappears]

Maria is the only game in town. Nate hit land and is vanishing almost as fast as Don did.


sorry if this wont upload the pic but it shows 8 to 10 days 500mb heights on the euro and gfs and on the euro it shows a postive nao with low pressure near iceland, ther bermuda high is stronger and the texas ridge is in mexico. there is a break over the eastern gulf from eastern lousiana to the panhandle. something getting drawn north is very possible..
everyone please go to the tropics chat! i have a link for you guys that will make you say "wow" about the 500mb heights and hot the gfs model and euro model have 2 different solutions THAT MAKE sense!
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
uf that pattern stick than a cape verde develoment would move into the east coast IF there wasnt a trough. from the carribean if anything in the SW carribean starts to get going like the models show it would most likely go around the high so a nw motion to a north motion so cuba the panhandle eastern gulf and carolinas would have to watch out


Yes, there seems to be a potential weakness on the backside of the high that may allow a trough to pull something north.
Quoting scooster67:


Yes, there seems to be a potential weakness on the backside of the high that may allow a trough to pull something north.
how weak will the trough be?
Quoting scooster67:


Yes, there seems to be a potential weakness on the backside of the high that may allow a trough to pull something north.

Seems like it.
This could have been a hurricane...Mexico got lucky.
morning

a catl tropical wave is about 9oo miles east of the lesser antilles. this area was made mention inthe TWO last evening, and dropped this morning ,because of the dimished convection. although surrounded by abundance of moisture, maybe not of its own, there is good vorticity at both the 700 mb amd 850 mb levels.the 500mb is to the northeast of the weak elongated area of low pressure associated with the wave. The wave is under 10-15 knots of wind shear as it moves towards the west. this area although not too impressive at this time. could show some organisation the next few days as shear is forecast to become more favourable.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
This could have been a hurricane...Mexico got lucky.
i thought they said is was gonna be a cat 2?
Quoting stoormfury:
morning

a catl tropical wave is about 9oo miles east of the lesser antilles. this area was made mention inthe TWO last evening, and dropped this morning ,because of the dimished convection. although surrounded by abundance of moisture, maybe not of its own, there is good vorticity at both the 700 mb amd 850 mb levels.the 500mb is to the northeast of the weak elongated area of low pressure associated with the wave. The wave is under 10-15 knots of wind shear as it moves towards the west. this area although not too impressive at this time. could show some organisation the next few days as shear is forecast to become more favourable.
oh god no not another wave thats gonna be a monster comming this way geeez we cant get a break this year will these storms ever stop comming
"Remembrance services for those who died 10 years ago in the 9/11 attacks on the US are taking place across the UK.

In London, families of some of the 67 British victims gathered for a service at Grosvenor Chapel and a ceremony was held at St Paul's Cathedral.

Wreaths are to be laid at the September 11 Memorial Garden near the US embassy."

You know one of the things that touches me most about the memorials and the anniversary is that while undoubtedly this was an attack on America, its livelihood, its culture, the values it holds and cherishes above all and that undoubtedly that the vast majority of those who were murdered were Americans, everyone remembers that it wasn't only Americans that died that day.

Nationalities didn't matter, all were victims together and all are remembered together.
Quoting CREEYCRAWL:
how weak will the trough be?
Who knows? To far out for even the TBLI32 model's to see that.

TidBitLevI32 model :)
I just want to give a shout out to the professionals at the National Hurricane Center.

I highly doubt any of them frequent this forum--they're actually working and all--but for any who might, I'd like them to know that the vast majority of us here appreciate what they do and how they do it. They are performing an extremely difficult job, sometimes under great stress; millions of lives and trillions of dollars in property are affected by the decisions they make, and that's a burden most of us can't begin to comprehend. It's obviously easy to sit behind the safety of our anonymous computers and repeatedly accuse them of misfeasance, malfeasance, or incompetence; it's easy to tell them that despite their education, experience, and wisdom, we know better than they do. Of course it's easy; after all, while we type away hidden behind our forum handles, the people at the NHC do their work in front of TV cameras, and every forecast is signed with their names--their real names.

Once again: thank you.
Quoting scooster67:
Who knows? To far out for even the TBLI32 model's to see that.

TidBitLevI32 model :)

Are you sure it wasn't the LEVI model and its 32 ensemble members? :D
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Are you sure it wasn't the LEVI model and its 32 ensemble members? :D


I'm sure sure :)
Quoting BahaHurican:
I suppose they could have left the TS watch, even if they downgraded from the warning. However, I believe they dropped the warnings because they genuinely don't expect Antigua, Barbuda, the Virgin Islands to get more than what would be typically seen in a Twave or TD....
We've gotten way more than that
Quoting P451:
Nate was a "tropical" system with no convection for days on end. Good to see it GONE.





Maria continues to be a blob without a surface feature worthy of a declared tropical cyclone. Has been like this for 3 days now.







I wonder how many more garbage storms the NHC can bend it's own rules for.

That doesn't sound like you. :/
1198. Xandra
Quoting Neapolitan:
I just want to give a shout out to the professionals at the National Hurricane Center.

I highly doubt any of them frequent this forum--they're actually working and all--but for any who might, I'd like them to know that the vast majority of us here appreciate what they do and how they do it. They are performing an extremely difficult job, sometimes under great stress; millions of lives and trillions of dollars in property are affected by the decisions they make, and that's a burden most of us can't begin to comprehend. It's obviously easy to sit behind the safety of our anonymous computers and repeatedly accuse them of misfeasance, malfeasance, or incompetence; it's easy to tell them that despite their education, experience, and wisdom, we know better than they do. Of course it's easy; after all, while we type away hidden behind our forum handles, the people at the NHC do their work in front of TV cameras, and every forecast is signed with their names--their real names.

Once again: thank you.

Very well said Nea!
Maria 5:00am Advisory
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic can further be magnified in the Link Window by clicking on it)
FOR NEW PAGE
Maria 5:00am Advisory
*Click graphic to magnify (graphic can further be magnified in the Link Window by clicking on it)
1201. P451
Nate is doing the classic left turn into MX like so many BOC storms before him..MIMIC.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
everyone please go to the tropics chat! i have a link for you guys that will make you say "wow" about the 500mb heights and hot the gfs model and euro model have 2 different solutions THAT MAKE sense!


Went there but didn't see a "wow". I am missing something?
does anyone know when this season will finnally end? havent we had enough storms already
1206. P451
Quoting Cotillion:
Yeah, Maria's had serious problems. If it doesn't have a CoC, that's one strong tropical wave though. 60mph sustained (maybe closer to 50mph, but still very strong for that).

Thing is P451, what should they have done if Maria kept having and then losing and then having a CoC?


They should have done what they had done many times in years past - and incidentally this has occurred in the same general area as storms seem to lose their surface features and degenerate in this area.

Declare that it had degenerated into an open wave, which it had. Say that it would be monitored for regeneration in the next few days. Say that if it regenerated they would re-initiate advisories and would keep the name Maria.

They have done this countless times in the past. We've seen storms degenerate in this area then regenerate a few days later. They discontinued advisories and then re-initiated them.

Why they chose to keep Maria named despite the fact we're almost at 3 full days without a surface feature that would qualify the storm as a tropical cyclone?

You can see it in their discussion wording. They seemed to think it was a temporary problem that would resolve itself. However, it hadn't.

"I'm not giving up on this system yet."

"Does not have a well defined closed surface circulation."

"Warnings are discontinued at this time."


Seems plain to me they know it has not qualified as a tropical cyclone for days, however, it would suggest they thought it would be a short lived problem, so they opted to keep it named.

Had the problem persisted for 12 hours before correcting itself then they would have had valid reason to keep the system named and advisories initiated.

Since it did not and were going towards 72 hours in hindsight it was a poor decision on their part.

And, as I said, they have had this situation before, and opted to discontinue advisories while the system no longer qualified as a tropical cyclone.

A tropical cyclone has a well defined closed surface circulation.

Maria has not had a well defined closed surface circulation for days.

They made a judgment call based on the thinking the issue would quickly resolve itself. Then kept making the same judgment call time and again at each new advisory point.

Now it's accumulated to three days worth of judgment calls of keeping a storm that does not qualify as a tropical cyclone - named as thought it does.


In the end it was a mistake on their part.

1207. BDADUDE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Maria looking good.
1208. pottery
Quoting Neapolitan:
I just want to give a shout out to the professionals at the National Hurricane Center.

I highly doubt any of them frequent this forum--they're actually working and all--but for any who might, I'd like them to know that the vast majority of us here appreciate what they do and how they do it. They are performing an extremely difficult job, sometimes under great stress; millions of lives and trillions of dollars in property are affected by the decisions they make, and that's a burden most of us can't begin to comprehend. It's obviously easy to sit behind the safety of our anonymous computers and repeatedly accuse them of misfeasance, malfeasance, or incompetence; it's easy to tell them that despite their education, experience, and wisdom, we know better than they do. Of course it's easy; after all, while we type away hidden behind our forum handles, the people at the NHC do their work in front of TV cameras, and every forecast is signed with their names--their real names.

Once again: thank you.

Agreed.
Quoting CREEYCRAWL:
does anyone know when this season will finnally end? havent we had enough storms already



November 30
:)
Looks like Maria got its act together, Glad she turned away from us!!!!!
Quoting thebandman:


Went there but didn't see a "wow". I am missing something?
i left because no one was there but there should be a link about the 500mb heights for the GFS and euro :)
Quoting Cotillion:
"Remembrance services for those who died 10 years ago in the 9/11 attacks on the US are taking place across the UK.

In London, families of some of the 67 British victims gathered for a service at Grosvenor Chapel and a ceremony was held at St Paul's Cathedral.

Wreaths are to be laid at the September 11 Memorial Garden near the US embassy."

You know one of the things that touches me most about the memorials and the anniversary is that while undoubtedly this was an attack on America, its livelihood, its culture, the values it holds and cherishes above all and that undoubtedly that the vast majority of those who were murdered were Americans, everyone remembers that it wasn't only Americans that died that day.

Nationalities didn't matter, all were victims together and all are remembered together.

I agree with your thoughts, 11 Australian died on this day 10 years ago, Earlier tonight there was a memorial service outside the US Embassy, Churches held memorial services, Lift outs in the papers commemorating this day. I have a choice of 8 channels all showing the Memorial service live from Ground Zero. Today 10 years ago, changed the world as we knew it.
No, P451, I don't disagree with your feelings on Maria.

I mean in the hypothetical instance if Maria had a CoC, then lost it, then had it again over a brief period.

Should they continue to have advisories even if the CoC is gone, or do they follow the storm exactly even if it would mean confusion would arise from it?
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
i left because no one was there but there should be a link about the 500mb heights for the GFS and euro :)


The 500 mb heights for the GFS and Euro are still there.
Quoting LazarusRH:



November 30
:)
Quoting P451:

Please stop the insulting of NHC. They too are doing their best and it seems Maria is organizing again. If they were indeed wrong, they would show it in post season analysis.
Thank you.
1218. pottery
Quoting P451:


They should have done what they had done many times in years past - and incidentally this has occurred in the same general area as storms seem to lose their surface features and degenerate in this area.

Declare that it had degenerated into an open wave, which it had. Say that it would be monitored for regeneration in the next few days. Say that if it regenerated they would re-initiate advisories and would keep the name Maria.

They have done this countless times in the past. We've seen storms degenerate in this area then regenerate a few days later. They discontinued advisories and then re-initiated them.

Why they chose to keep Maria named despite the fact we're almost at 3 full days without a surface feature that would qualify the storm as a tropical cyclone?

You can see it in their discussion wording. They seemed to think it was a temporary problem that would resolve itself. However, it hadn't.

"I'm not giving up on this system yet."

"Does not have a well defined closed surface circulation."

"Warnings are discontinued at this time."


Seems plain to me they know it has not qualified as a tropical cyclone for days, however, it would suggest they thought it would be a short lived problem, so they opted to keep it named.

Had the problem persisted for 12 hours before correcting itself then they would have had valid reason to keep the system named and advisories initiated.

Since it did not and were going towards 72 hours in hindsight it was a poor decision on their part.

And, as I said, they have had this situation before, and opted to discontinue advisories while the system no longer qualified as a tropical cyclone.

A tropical cyclone has a well defined closed surface circulation.

Maria has not had a well defined closed surface circulation for days.

They made a judgment call based on the thinking the issue would quickly resolve itself. Then kept making the same judgment call time and again at each new advisory point.

Now it's accumulated to three days worth of judgment calls of keeping a storm that does not qualify as a tropical cyclone - named as thought it does.


In the end it was a mistake on their part.


Yes. Well I cant help agreeing with this as well....
Given the size of the system, and the overall conditions, it surprised me to see people calling Maria dead (including D. masters) yesterday.
I did not understand how Maria was expected to just vanish into thin air.....

A strange call, and a mistake to have discontinued Warnings at the time.
1219. pottery
In the meantime it's still raining here since about 6:00 am.
Strong south and west winds this morning early, with heavy rain.
First real rain in a couple of weeks.
Nice!
Quoting P451:


They should have done what they had done many times in years past - and incidentally this has occurred in the same general area as storms seem to lose their surface features and degenerate in this area.

Declare that it had degenerated into an open wave, which it had. Say that it would be monitored for regeneration in the next few days. Say that if it regenerated they would re-initiate advisories and would keep the name Maria.

They have done this countless times in the past. We've seen storms degenerate in this area then regenerate a few days later. They discontinued advisories and then re-initiated them.

Why they chose to keep Maria named despite the fact we're almost at 3 full days without a surface feature that would qualify the storm as a tropical cyclone?

You can see it in their discussion wording. They seemed to think it was a temporary problem that would resolve itself. However, it hadn't.

"I'm not giving up on this system yet."

"Does not have a well defined closed surface circulation."

"Warnings are discontinued at this time."


Seems plain to me they know it has not qualified as a tropical cyclone for days, however, it would suggest they thought it would be a short lived problem, so they opted to keep it named.

Had the problem persisted for 12 hours before correcting itself then they would have had valid reason to keep the system named and advisories initiated.

Since it did not and were going towards 72 hours in hindsight it was a poor decision on their part.

And, as I said, they have had this situation before, and opted to discontinue advisories while the system no longer qualified as a tropical cyclone.

A tropical cyclone has a well defined closed surface circulation.

Maria has not had a well defined closed surface circulation for days.

They made a judgment call based on the thinking the issue would quickly resolve itself. Then kept making the same judgment call time and again at each new advisory point.

Now it's accumulated to three days worth of judgment calls of keeping a storm that does not qualify as a tropical cyclone - named as thought it does.


In the end it was a mistake on their part.

VERY WELL SAID AND ITS HAPPENED WITH ALMOST EVERY STORM THIS YEAR AS WELL
On visible satellite imagery it looks like Maria is being sheared with the low level center now detached from the heavy convection. I believe the LLC is now located at 18.9N 64.7W. The mid-level center is underneath the heavy convection to the east of the LLC.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I just want to give a shout out to the professionals at the National Hurricane Center.

I highly doubt any of them frequent this forum--they're actually working and all--but for any who might, I'd like them to know that the vast majority of us here appreciate what they do and how they do it. They are performing an extremely difficult job, sometimes under great stress; millions of lives and trillions of dollars in property are affected by the decisions they make, and that's a burden most of us can't begin to comprehend. It's obviously easy to sit behind the safety of our anonymous computers and repeatedly accuse them of misfeasance, malfeasance, or incompetence; it's easy to tell them that despite their education, experience, and wisdom, we know better than they do. Of course it's easy; after all, while we type away hidden behind our forum handles, the people at the NHC do their work in front of TV cameras, and every forecast is signed with their names--their real names.

Once again: thank you.


it amuses me no end how many people think they actually lurk here
1223. P451
Quoting FLdewey:


I think they should start naming outflow boundaries... had a nice one blow through last night about 9pm.


Absolutely. Got to keep things consistent.

We already had Afternoon Thundershower Nate, Tropical Wave Maria, Gust Front Irene, and Outflow Boundary Lee.


It's always been mentioned that they wanted to begin naming nor'easters. So we might as well name everything.

Sun Shower Ophelia is next I presume.

Isolated Shower Phillipe

Fog Bank Rina

Freezing Mist Sean

Mostly Cloudy Tammy

Stratocumulus Vince

...the possibilities are endless.

And it helps the community feel good as well.

The NHC gets it's numbers.
Nea gets his Global Warming causes more storms bit.
NOLA gets to declare CAT 5 DOOM five times a day instead of five times a week.
We get wind azimuth displays in January.
Levi Groupies get year round tidbits three times a day.
We get a chart that spans 12 months.
Hurlo gets his paycheck.
And I get to finish pulling all my hair out.


It's just winning across the board!
1224. P451
Quoting presslord:


it amuses me no end how many people think they actually lurk here


LOL no kidding.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I just want to give a shout out to the professionals at the National Hurricane Center.

I highly doubt any of them frequent this forum--they're actually working and all--but for any who might, I'd like them to know that the vast majority of us here appreciate what they do and how they do it. They are performing an extremely difficult job, sometimes under great stress; millions of lives and trillions of dollars in property are affected by the decisions they make, and that's a burden most of us can't begin to comprehend. It's obviously easy to sit behind the safety of our anonymous computers and repeatedly accuse them of misfeasance, malfeasance, or incompetence; it's easy to tell them that despite their education, experience, and wisdom, we know better than they do. Of course it's easy; after all, while we type away hidden behind our forum handles, the people at the NHC do their work in front of TV cameras, and every forecast is signed with their names--their real names.

Once again: thank you.


It would be nice if 9/11 could be designated "PUBLIC SERVICE DAY" in honor of everybody whose job it is to protect lives and property. NHC has been right on with their forecasts.
Perhaps those who criticize them do not understand the element of human judgement that is necessary when making safety calls about uncertain and unpredictable events. Or perhaps a myopic vision of their own judgement prevents them from seeing a rationale based on a larger perspective.
1226. P451
Surface feature with Maria continues to be elongated and ill defined.



1227. pottery
Quoting presslord:


it amuses me no end how many people think they actually lurk here

You mean, they DONT?
I thought this was where they GOT their info from in the first place.
I always imagined them hunkered down over the monitor saying "Well, Pottery said...." and so on.

How very dissapointing.
You have shattered my day.
1228. WXHEAD
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Please stop the insulting of NHC. They too are doing their best and it seems Maria is organizing again. If they were indeed wrong, they would show it in post season analysis.
Thank you.


I didn't view P451's comment as an insult of the NHC. I believe it was an analysis (and quite fair) of the way the NHC handled the recent situation with Maria's intensity forecasts. An insult would be to call them idiots or stupid or the like.
The NHC isn't infallible and because there is no EXACT science involved, mistakes can be made.
P451, Neapolitan and many others here have a sharp eye for mistakes and anomalies. When they bring it to our attention, it isn't intended as an insult, merely a scientific discussion of the facts and the decision making paradigm used by the NHC. It is a good way to learn.
This is why NHC discontinued warnings:



This particular conformation of the storm, with all the TS strength winds to the NE of the admitedly diffuse centre, implies that TS warnings were no longer needed. I don't think they discontinued the warnings because they felt the storm was no longer a TS. They just were very confident about their track.

What puzzles me, though, is that they haven't had the same confidence in the intensity. That being the case, how could they be certain enough that the storm wouldn't build around to the SW before passing the islands? As I said in an earlier post, dropping from warnings to watches would have made sense to me.
1230. P451
Quoting Cotillion:
No, P451, I don't disagree with your feelings on Maria.

I mean in the hypothetical instance if Maria had a CoC, then lost it, then had it again over a brief period.

Should they continue to have advisories even if the CoC is gone, or do they follow the storm exactly even if it would mean confusion would arise from it?


Yes, if for a short period, no more than 12 hours, Maria went from.. Maria, to an open center, back to Maria - then yes I think you continue advisories on the storm for continuity's sake.

If after 12 hours upon re-evaluation the situation has not improved then I think you discontinue advisories and monitor the system for regeneration down the road.


What really gets me is that the NHC has been known as a careful and conservative organization. They have deactivated systems when they deserved it and reactivated them when they regenerated.

Maria... goes against what we have come to expect from them. As did the premature declaration of TD13 which became Lee.


But you can expand that into the maximum sustained wind arguments as well (Which I assume you've read, so let's not go back into that) that show they went from conservative to aggressive this season.

I don't understand the change in philosophy but it has certainly occurred.

1231. DDR
Hey pottery,you got and any rain this morning?
Just over an inch here.
Quoting pottery:
In the meantime it's still raining here since about 6:00 am.
Strong south and west winds this morning early, with heavy rain.
First real rain in a couple of weeks.
Nice!

How's that water tank of yours, filling up nicely I hope :-)
1233. P451
Quoting WXHEAD:


I didn't view P451's comment as an insult of the NHC. I believe it was an analysis (and quite fair) of the way the NHC handled the recent situation with Maria's intensity forecasts. An insult would be to call them idiots or stupid or the like.
The NHC isn't infallible and because there is no EXACT science involved, mistakes can be made.
P451, Neapolitan and many others here have a sharp eye for mistakes and anomalies. When they bring it to our attention, it isn't intended as an insult, merely a scientific discussion of the facts and the decision making paradigm used by the NHC. It is a good way to learn.


THANK YOU


I don't know why my posts are misinterpreted as trolling or bashing.

That is not the intent.

Quoting presslord:


it amuses me no end how many people think they actually lurk here
Morning press... my bet's on Robbie... I'm sure he's lurking RIGHT NOW if he doesn't have the shift.... lol

The NHC would also be criticized had they put up watches and warnings and nothing happened.
Quoting P451:


Yes, if for a short period, no more than 12 hours, Maria went from.. Maria, to an open center, back to Maria - then yes I think you continue advisories on the storm for continuity's sake.

If after 12 hours upon re-evaluation the situation has not improved then I think you discontinue advisories and monitor the system for regeneration down the road.


What really gets me is that the NHC has been known as a careful and conservative organization. They have deactivated systems when they deserved it and reactivated them when they regenerated.

Maria... goes against what we have come to expect from them. As did the premature declaration of TD13 which became Lee.


But you can expand that into the maximum sustained wind arguments as well (Which I assume you've read, so let's not go back into that) that show they went from conservative to aggressive this season.

I don't understand the change in philosophy but it has certainly occurred.



Alright, thanks for the response, seems fair.

You can throw Jose into that one as well, I think.

Quoting presslord:


it amuses me no end how many people think they actually lurk here


I think you missed the point press. It's the thought and the thanks that counts right?

Not to mention that I am sure Nea said this in true sincerity.

With that said. P451 has every right to disagree with the NHC calls. Disagreeing is not disrespectful.
Quoting WXHEAD:


I didn't view P451's comment as an insult of the NHC. I believe it was an analysis (and quite fair) of the way the NHC handled the recent situation with Maria's intensity forecasts. An insult would be to call them idiots or stupid or the like.
The NHC isn't infallible and because there is no EXACT science involved, mistakes can be made.
P451, Neapolitan and many others here have a sharp eye for mistakes and anomalies. When they bring it to our attention, it isn't intended as an insult, merely a scientific discussion of the facts and the decision making paradigm used by the NHC. It is a good way to learn.

I understand. I know they are telling the truth. I just think they have repeatedly said those kinds of words that is all.
1239. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Hey pottery,you got and any rain this morning?
Just over an inch here.

.75" so far.
Strong squall at about 6am from the south, swinging to west after about 45 mins.
Glad to get some rain. It has been real dry down here.
Chick, I like the PUBLIC SERVICE DAY thing. That would prolly be the best way to remind everyone that TEAM... Together Everyone Achieves More...
Those who worked for the NWS like myself were always told it is better to over-warn than under-warn....


Quoting Chicklit:
The NHC would also be criticized had they put up watches and warnings and nothing happened.
1242. Dakster
I for one, praise the NHC and the work that they do. Sometimes I may not agree with them, but they have proven that they are the most accurate forecasters we have. (remember, Doc M was part of that team, which is probably why most of us are here or found this blog)
Newbie here. Have been following this blog since 2005. Looking to learn and hoping not to make stupid comments. I will apologize in advance. Thanks.
1244. DDR
Quoting pottery:

.75" so far.
Strong squall at about 6am from the south, swinging to west after about 45 mins.
Glad to get some rain. It has been real dry down here.

Yea same here,the last time decent rain fell here was on the 7th of this month,i got just over 2inches so far for September.
1245. P451



Overall organization has not improved as the weak surface feature that is being tracked continues to be displaced from the convection.

The convective flareup itself is impressive and persistent. However the surface feature continues to be ill defined and weak.

For significant intensification to occur these two need to link up and the surface feature needs to organize more.



Wind Shear is expected to relax for a day or two and this would be the golden window of opportunity for Maria to get her act together and strengthen into a Hurricane. SSTs have peaked yet will only gradually decline.





Intensity forecasts of course mirror this.

1246. emcf30
Quoting P451:


THANK YOU


I don't know why my posts are misinterpreted as trolling or bashing.

That is not the intent.



You definitely have your right to disagree. Heck, I even agree to some of what you post in regards to methodology of why a particular system was named. I think it is the manner of how you do it. You try to drive your opinion on the same subject post after post, after post. This is why many interpret it as trolling or bashing. Of course this is only my opinion.
Quoting portcharlotte:
Those who worked for the NWS like myself were always told it is better to over-warn than under-warn....




Forewarned is forearmed.
hi all



i got my new Acer on friday




so what i miss i had a 45hr ban from the blog but now i am out has you can see
ADT Location at 11/0515Z 18.76N 63.19W
RCON Location at 11/1359Z 18.75N 64.60W

Assuming RCON has located the center, if there is one, on the first pass. AND this is a big assumtion, THEN it is moving due W at this point.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Chick, I like the PUBLIC SERVICE DAY thing. That would prolly be the best way to remind everyone that TEAM... Together Everyone Achieves More...


"Public Service Day" would include too many rude incompetant, pencil-neck bureurcrats. "First Reponders Day" would target the right group. They do indeed put their lives on the line.
1252. FLdewey
Quoting NavarreMark:


I think they need to create a naming system for FL afternoon thunderstorms.


I agree... and when they knock over my trash cans, they are retired.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi all



i got my new Acer on friday




so what i miss i had a 45hr ban from the blog but now i am out has you can see

self imposed ban or admin imposed ban?

You missed a whole lot of bickering and second calling the NHC, oh, wait, that happens here everyday, so I guess you missed nothing.
18.1n62.6w, 18.6n63.3w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Maria's_12pmGMT_ATCF
18.0n62.6w, 18.6n63.3w, 19.2n64.1w are now the most recent positions.
16.9n61.2w, 17.5n62.0w, 18.0n62.6w, 18.6n63.3w, 19.2n64.1w over the past 24hours
Starting 10Sept_12pmGMT and ending 11Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the coastline blob at 31.447n81.230w-08ga is the endpoint of the (freshly*recalculated) most
recent
previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 11.2mph(18k/h) on a heading of 308.4degrees(NW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over PonteVedraBeach,Florida ~4days19hours from now.

Copy&paste gls, 31.447n81.230w-08ga, 16.9n61.2w-17.5n62.0w, 17.5n62.0w-18.0n62.6w, 18.0n62.6w-18.6n63.3w, 18.0n62.6w-31.447n81.230w, 08ga, 18.6n63.3w-19.2n64.1w, fd48, 18.6n63.3w-30.136n81.349w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
(And to get a look at the freshly recalculated previous straightline projection... as well as to get an idea why only the most recent previous endpoint is posted).

The previous mapping (for 10Sept_12pmGMT yesterday).
Decided to take a break in the mapping until NHC/ATCF figured out where the heck Maria actually was within a tenth-or-so degrees. Re-evaluating&altering previous coordinates by a distance of 0.64degrees(0.5n&0.4w from 15.5n59.8w to 16.0n60.2w) made their associated headings, travel-speeds, and straightline projections totally irrelevant.

* The change in previous coordinates made blog1925page23comment1114 irrelevant. And since this is a new mapping after 24hours without...
Quoting AussieStorm:

self imposed ban or admin imposed ban?

You missed a whole lot of bickering and second calling the NHC, oh, wait, that happens here everyday, so I guess you missed nothing.



self imposed ban or admin imposed ban?



whats this say i could not get on the hole blogs
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi all



i got my new Acer on friday




so what i miss i had a 45hr ban from the blog but now i am out has you can see

Maria almost died, and has now been reborn. lol
any ways back tooo the weather
was not a believer but pretty much am now its the yr of the dry air. previously i thought it was cool water below the surface. good to see you back taj
Quoting P451:


THANK YOU


I don't know why my posts are misinterpreted as trolling or bashing.

That is not the intent.

You know u r really bashing, and just calling it polite discussion.... admit it... then you can get on the road to recovery....

lol

Just messin' witcha...

Quoting Chicklit:
The NHC would also be criticized had they put up watches and warnings and nothing happened.
Just by a different group of pple.... isn't there some Aesop's fable about the two men and the donkey?

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Maria almost died, and has now been reborn. lol




wow cool so how many RIPS did you give here toomake here come back too life
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi all



i got my new Acer on friday




so what i miss i had a 45hr ban from the blog but now i am out has you can see


Welcome back, Taz
Quoting Tazmanian:




wow cool so how many RIPS did you give here toomake here come back too life

I didn't say RIP. But I'm pretty sure she died once. So she's a zombie.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Welcome back, Taz



thanks
Quoting Tazmanian:




wow cool so how many RIPS did you give here toomake here come back too life
I got an Acer to Taz.We all know what today is people."We shall never Forget"
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I didn't say RIP. But I'm pretty sure she died once. So she's a zombie.



there a storm name i like too see zombie.
1267. h0db
Quoting GTcooliebai:


Not a big fan of pointless gestures by people sitting in front of their computers, or filling up the blog with this topic. There are literally hundreds of online sites for 9/11 discussion.
1268. JNCali
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi all i got my new Acer on friday so what i miss i had a 45hr ban from the blog but now i am out has you can see

Hi Taz..What model did you get?? Acer's are sweet... Do you have the broadband speed to take advantage of it?
Quoting washingtonian115:
I got an Acer to Taz.We all know what today is people."We shall never Forget"



yup today is 9-11-11 wish we sould nevere for get
...CENTER OF MARINA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...STRONG WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 11
Location: 19.0°N 64.6°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
1271. pottery
Quoting h0db:


Not a big fan of pointless gestures by people sitting in front of their computers, or filling up the blog with this topic. There are literally hundreds of online sites for 9/11 discussion.

That's harsh.....
1272. JNCali
Quoting MoldyinMS:
Newbie here. Have been following this blog since 2005. Looking to learn and hoping not to make stupid comments. I will apologize in advance. Thanks.

Hey Moldy.. I have found this blog to be educational on so many 'levels'.... Since you've been lurking I'm sure you know what I mean ;)
Quoting JNCali:

Hi Taz..What model did you get?? Acer's are sweet... Do you have the broadband speed to take advantage of it?




hi i got the Acer 770Z5-4623



it has 4GB RAM 640GB hard drive window 7-SP 1 with IE 9 and window live 2011 and yes i have DSL vary fast my downlode speed is 317kt my core is intel core B940 processor 2.0GHz.2M L3 Cache and a 17.3" HD + LED LCD and it has a DVD- super multi DL drive


oh and my window index is 5.1
1274. Martuch
Today 11.00 am
sunny day 87 temp NO Rain just another suumer day
San juan PR

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...CENTER OF MARINA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...STRONG WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 11
Location: 19.0°N 64.6°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Lol.Epic one at that.
Quoting MelbourneTom:
ADT Location at 11/0515Z 18.76N 63.19W
RCON Location at 11/1359Z 18.75N 64.60W

Assuming RCON has located the center, if there is one, on the first pass. AND this is a big assumtion, THEN it is moving due W at this point.
MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE
LONGER TERM MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.

You are correct.
1277. JNCali
Quoting Tazmanian:




hi i got the Acer 770Z5-4623 ...

You will rule the world with that monster...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


"Public Service Day" would include too many rude incompetant, pencil-neck bureurcrats. "First Reponders Day" would target the right group. They do indeed put their lives on the line.
I think the "rude incompetant pencil-neck bureurcrats" NEED to be included. They need to be reminded that while their service to the public may not require giving their lives, they should always give their BEST....

1279. will40
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE
LONGER TERM MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.

You are correct.


yes and NHC hinting that the track may have to be moved even more west for the next couple of days
000
WTNT34 KNHC 111516
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011

CORRECTED SPELLING OF MARIA IN HEADLINE
...CENTER OF MARIA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...STRONG WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...

I suspect Maria will have more W movement then currently forecast. Since she is marginally tropical I don't think the models are handeling her well at this point.

Quoting Tazmanian:



self imposed ban or admin imposed ban?



whats this say i could not get on the hole blogs
Welcome back Taz. Whatever you did to get banned, just learn from it and don't do it again. Your input is appreciated.

How are you liking the Acre?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I didn't say RIP. But I'm pretty sure she died once. So she's a zombie.


A Nazi zombie? if so imam have to hit the box
Quoting Tazmanian:




hi i got the Acer 770Z5-4623



it has 4GB RAM 640GB hard drive window 7-SP 1 with IE 9 and window live 2011 and yes i have DSL vary fast my downlode speed is 317kt my core is intel core B940 processor 2.0GHz.2M L3 Cache and a 17.3" HD + LED LCD and it has a DVD- super multi DL drive


oh and my window index is 5.1
Ah... very nice indeed.... have fun with that....
Quoting will40:


yes and NHC hinting that the track may have to be moved even more west for the next couple of days
NOT words I want to be hearing.... :o(
ohh computer specs ;)

Built mine from scratch -

P4 Quad-core 2.4 ghz overclocked to 2.7
8800 gTX
750 watt PSU
steelseries siberia headphones (best gaming headphones out there)
24" widescreen w/ 2ms refresh, reso 1920x1080

and my fav: Comcast Ultra 50 - have to ask for it, for me, its ~62 mbps download and 12 mbps upload

**making this weather related**

Maria looks really nice on sat, and even better on my bangin' screen
1287. will40
Quoting BahaHurican:
NOT words I want to be hearing.... :o(


understands. she is just so shallow
Quoting h0db:


Not a big fan of pointless gestures by people sitting in front of their computers, or filling up the blog with this topic. There are literally hundreds of online sites for 9/11 discussion.



Don't let the door hit ya.
Quoting h0db:


Not a big fan of pointless gestures by people sitting in front of their computers, or filling up the blog with this topic. There are literally hundreds of online sites for 9/11 discussion.
I don't see a problem with 9/11 tributes this weekend. Most here feel like family with each other and enjoy expressing our feeling about the subject.

Besides Maria there is nothing to talk about.
9/11 has been known as Patriot Day for 9 years now. No need to start calling it something else.
INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.

Shucks... thought we were done with this....

Also I note the pressure is 1007, up from 1005 earlier.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ah... very nice indeed.... have fun with that....



thanks
Don't think we will be seeing P451 or Dewey much more today as they just banned Deweys blog and I believe him and P451 individually.
Quoting h0db:


Not a big fan of pointless gestures by people sitting in front of their computers, or filling up the blog with this topic. There are literally hundreds of online sites for 9/11 discussion.


You're welcome to take a break from commenting on the blog today if you wish (a not uncommon occurrence considering how few posts you have). This is the community people here know, not some unknown online site. For many, this place is their "online friends" where they can speak of what is on their mind during certain occasions. There are a multitude of topics discussed here at various times of the year. I much prefer a "pointless gesture" to an arrogant and lame post of what one feels should be posted on this blog.
Quoting Tazmanian:




hi i got the Acer 770Z5-4623



it has 4GB RAM 640GB hard drive window 7-SP 1 with IE 9 and window live 2011 and yes i have DSL vary fast my downlode speed is 317kt my core is intel core B940 processor 2.0GHz.2M L3 Cache and a 17.3" HD + LED LCD and it has a DVD- super multi DL drive


oh and my window index is 5.1

Sweet! I am stuck with my Dell 1501. Can't wait until I can afford something newer.
1296. will40
Quoting PcolaDan:


You're welcome to take a break from commenting on the blog today if you wish (a not uncommon occurrence considering how few posts you have). This is the community people here know, not some unknown online site. For many, this place is their "online friends" where they can speak of what is on their mind during certain occasions. There are a multitude of topics discussed here at various times of the year. I much prefer a "pointless gesture" to an arrogant and lame post of what one feels should be posted on this blog.



yes i hope the good Dr will mention this day when he updates
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Maria almost died, and has now been reborn. lol

1298. SJPhoto
seem like Maria is slowing down considerably. IR loops for the past 4 hrs just have her static hovering east of PR.....is she trying to re-organize her COC???
Quoting JNCali:

Hey Moldy.. I have found this blog to be educational on so many 'levels'.... Since you've been lurking I'm sure you know what I mean ;)
1300. basti11
maria has a destination just like her sister did with the FISH...the fish must be getting pretty filled up...maria i do expect to weaken once again with that hostile enviroment she is moving into...
Good Morning All.

My avatar tells the story.

~ 9/11/01 ~ NEVER FORGET






NHC trusted the last Vortex run so much... they only split the difference. HH is inbound for another one.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BE REQUIRED.

That's not "hinting"; that's an outright statement....

Quoting Chicklit:


It would be nice if 9/11 could be designated "PUBLIC SERVICE DAY" in honor of everybody whose job it is to protect lives and property. NHC has been right on with their forecasts.
Perhaps those who criticize them do not understand the element of human judgement that is necessary when making safety calls about uncertain and unpredictable events. Or perhaps a myopic vision of their own judgement prevents them from seeing a rationale based on a larger perspective.
Agree but as humans the commit errors too,and bad judments. Nothing wrong to try to correct them and improve their job like anybody else. For example my opinion is that they are accurate most of the time. Like right now they finally admitted that Maria is moving almost do west,,and she is been doing that since last night. Another thing that is strange that even though they insist the islands are not getting tropical storm winds, they are, and with a slow moving storm that can wrap around quick, still no tropical storm warning or watches, or a gale wind advice at least.
Quoting Unfriendly:
ohh computer specs ;)

Built mine from scratch -

P4 Quad-core 2.4 ghz overclocked to 2.7
8800 gTX
750 watt PSU
steelseries siberia headphones (best gaming headphones out there)
24" widescreen w/ 2ms refresh, reso 1920x1080

and my fav: Comcast Ultra 50 - have to ask for it, for me, its ~62 mbps download and 12 mbps upload

**making this weather related**

Maria looks really nice on sat, and even better on my bangin' screen
1 HP master node with 2 hex core 2.93 Intel chips, 48 GB ram.
4-10GbE (bonded) connected to 18 spindle 18 TB RAID storage, 15k RPM SAS, 800 MB/s read rate
44 slave servers with 2 hex core 2.93 Intel chips, 24 GB ram, each
All servers attached by 40 Gb/s fabric interconnect
180 TB tape library, SCSI attached, for archival

(I could go on, over 700 processors cores in 80 servers in 3 clusters.)

12 hours of battery UPS plus a 8 MW generator. 2 entirely redundant chilled water Lieberts that can each keep up with the heat both connected to 2 entirely redundant cooling towers.

Making this weather related, this equipment is used for weather observation QC, satellite data processing, atmospheric, wave, and storm surge modeling.

;-)
Quoting capeflorida:
Don't think we will be seeing P451 or Dewey much more today as they just banned Deweys blog and I believe him and P451 individually.
Why????
1307. will40
Quoting BahaHurican:
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BE REQUIRED.

That's not "hinting"; that's an outright statement....



yes the could be is what i was refering to
1308. basti11
Quoting BahaHurican:
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BE REQUIRED.

That's not "hinting"; that's an outright statement....




a very strong trof is set up in canada getting ready to move down the eastcoast ready to sweep MARIA out to sea...the trof has been the eastcoast best friend this year...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Why????


I don't know, but he/she is right...Both blogs have been banned.

:\
Quoting will40:


yes the could be is what i was refering to
When they start saying could be and is possible, that's like a polite way of saying, "watch out, folks, coming your way...."

After Irene, I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't know, but he/she is right...Both blogs have been banned.

:\


I think he/she is right as well, all of P451's posts today have vanished.
1312. will40
Quoting BahaHurican:
When they start saying could be and is possible, that's like a polite way of saying, "watch out, folks, coming your way...."

After Irene, I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop...


i do understand your concern Baha i would be also if i was sitting where you are
1313. basti11
everyting is quiet for the us in the tropics during the peak of this hurricane season...i cant see anything forming for at least 7 days...i think 6 more weaks and we can all breathe easy..
1314. Dakster
Are these perma-bans or the usual 24hr..?
I have little doubt that Maria will not turn out to sea like the models are currently hinting. There is a strong Cold Front setting up near the Canada/USA border today, and it will enter the USA tomorrow. This is by far the strongest Cold Front we have seen since Winter/Spring, and it will result in 10-20 degree BELOW average temperatures across the Midwest. As Maria moves towards the WNW/NW, it will begin to interact with the Cold Front, and will be taken out to sea. It won't be a gradual turn like Irene, but a very sharp curve. The only areas I really see this affecting is Bermuda, other than the Caribbean Islands. IMO, Maria will get stronger than the NHC is indicating at this time, perhaps up to 85-90 mph.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think he/she is right as well, all of P451's posts today have vanished.
Hmmm.... I don't think P451's been any worse this a.m. than usual... lol... he's always nitpicking something.

Maybe it was something "behind the scenes".... Oh well...
Quoting Dakster:
Are these perma-bans or the usual 24hr..?


Considering their blogs were banned? Most likely a permanent ban.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Considering their blogs were banned? Most likely a permanent ban.
I *think* that is the same for a 24 hour break.
Quoting atmoaggie:
1 HP master node with 2 hex core 2.93 Intel chips, 48 GB ram.
4-10GbE (bonded) connected to 18 spindle 18 TB RAID storage, 15k RPM SAS, 800 MB/s read rate
44 slave servers with 2 hex core 2.93 Intel chips, 24 GB ram, each
All servers attached by 40 Gb/s fabric interconnect
180 TB tape library, SCSI attached, for archival

(I could go on, over 700 processors cores in 80 servers in 3 clusters.)

12 hours of battery UPS plus a 8 MW generator. 2 entirely redundant chilled water Lieberts that can each keep up with the heat both connected to 2 entirely redundant cooling towers.

Making this weather related, this equipment is used for weather observation QC, satellite data processing, atmospheric, wave, and storm surge modeling.

;-)
What a waste. Imagine what one of our gamers could do with that. Actually beat WWC.

Here in the Shenandoah Valley of VA the sun is shining, the grass is growing (been mostly dead) and I am slowly waking up. Looks to be a beautiful day.
Quoting BahaHurican:
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BE REQUIRED.

That's not "hinting"; that's an outright statement....




The closest point calculation for Provo has dropped from 240 miles to 217, hopefully the swing won't continue.


Quoting basti11:
everyting is quiet for the us in the tropics during the peak of this hurricane season...i cant see anything forming for at least 7 days...i think 6 more weaks and we can all breathe easy..


I will have to disagree, and note that 2005 after Ophelia there was a bit of a lull. A lot of models are saying that yet another CV system will attempt to develop, and perhaps a system in the Caribbean too.

Between Maria and our next storm, I give it 5 days max. MJO coming back in our basin.
1323. Dakster
I don't know if you are on time-out if your blogs are too.. I never checked anyone that I knew was on a 24hr. time out. I guess we will have to wait and see.

-- Back to the weather --

Now, today, Maris is looking like a TS. And a TS on its way to Hurricane Status.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Considering their blogs were banned? Most likely a permanent ban.



my ban was olny 45hrs lol and i could not get on the hole blog site for that time
yup back too the weather
It would appear that Maria is moving slightly south of due west at this time, HHs next fix should confirm if this is so or not!
i guess we will have to have about maria for the next 2 weeks do nothing but start and go and staying in the middle of the atlantic i cant it anymore i hope it jjust completly disapears so i dont have to listen to our weather mets here talk about something sensless for 2 more weeks
Quoting atmoaggie:
1 HP master node with 2 hex core 2.93 Intel chips, 48 GB ram.
4-10GbE (bonded) connected to 18 spindle 18 TB RAID storage, 15k RPM SAS, 800 MB/s read rate
44 slave servers with 2 hex core 2.93 Intel chips, 24 GB ram, each
All servers attached by 40 Gb/s fabric interconnect
180 TB tape library, SCSI attached, for archival

(I could go on, over 700 processors cores in 80 servers in 3 clusters.)

12 hours of battery UPS plus a 8 MW generator. 2 entirely redundant chilled water Lieberts that can each keep up with the heat both connected to 2 entirely redundant cooling towers.

Making this weather related, this equipment is used for weather observation QC, satellite data processing, atmospheric, wave, and storm surge modeling.

;-)


but can you play Minesweeper on it? ;)

did nate even make and fall?
1330. basti11
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I will have to disagree, and note that 2005 after Ophelia there was a bit of a lull. A lot of models are saying that yet another CV system will attempt to develop, and perhaps a system in the Caribbean too.

Between Maria and our next storm, I give it 5 days max. MJO coming back in our basin.



conditions are not the same this year cold fronts are coming down more frequently...this is not 2005..even if something does develop off the african coast it will be a fight all the way to get across to the united states...i cant see any landfalls on the united states for the rest of this hurricane season with the strong trofs diggind down and taking them out to sea...
Models are latching onto the idea that the Cape Verde season isn't over, not quite yet. The CMC, ECMWF, GFS, and NGP all show a strong tropical wave, and perhaps a tropical depression near/over the Cape Verde Islands at 144 hours.

CMC @ 144 hours:



ECMWF @ 144 hours:



GFS @ 144 hours:



NGP @ 144 hours:

1332. luigi18
Quoting BahaHurican:
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BE REQUIRED.

That's not "hinting"; that's an outright statement....



she is moving w? you mean
Quoting basti11:



conditions are not the same this year cold fronts are coming down more frequently...this is not 2005..even if something does develop off the african coast it will be a fight all the way to get across to the united states...i cant see any landfalls on the united states for the rest of this hurricane season with the strong trofs diggind down and taking them out to sea...


Whatever you say doc..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Models are latching onto the idea that the Cape Verde season isn't over, not quite yet. The CMC, ECMWF, GFS, and NGP all show a strong tropical wave, and perhaps a tropical depression near/over the Cape Verde Islands at 144 hours.

CMC @ 144 hours:



ECMWF @ 144 hours:



GFS @ 144 hours:



NGP @ 144 hours:




i wounder where it will head off too
Quoting Unfriendly:


but can you play Minesweeper on it? ;)

lol. Never boots past run level 3.

(i.e. No mouse, no graphics whatsoever.)

But, conducting any system admin work on these is very, very similar to playing minesweeper. Only there is no new game keyboard shortcut.
Visible shot shows Maria's coc exposed to the west moving a little to the south.What a crazy storm.
I hate to say it but I sure hope Maria does not decide to take an Ike like track.
1338. will40
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Whatever you say doc..



or Stormtop is you like lol
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



The closest point calculation for Provo has dropped from 240 miles to 217, hopefully the swing won't continue.


Hear hear.

I was figuring with the more Nerly track over the islands Maria would stay out of our hair.
Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder where it will head off too
it will probably fall apart then regenerate then fall apart then head out to sea an hit iceland but im sure the models will having hit the conus as a cat 3 or4 at some point but wont happen
Also basti11, your post is assuming that the rest of the season's storms don't form in the Caribbean.

Those cold fronts you mentioned, if a storm forms in the western Caribbean this year, which is likely if you look at the conditions, in October. It could be forced towards the US in a similar manner to October landfalling storms. We are not out of the woods yet, Irene should have been the big hint that this season isn't a tranquil one for the USA.
Quoting Tazmanian:
did nate even make and fall?
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF NATE HAS ACTUALLY
MOVED A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...KEEPING
THE CENTER OFFSHORE UP TO THIS TIME.
1343. Patrap
Happy Birthday to Dr. Masters...


Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder where it will head off too
Probably: the deforested mountains of Florida, the Sunny Beaches of NOLA or the Bayous of Hati, anywhere but the burning swamps of Texas.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also basti11, your post is assuming that the rest of the season's storms don't form in the Caribbean.

Those cold fronts you mentioned, if a storm forms in the western Caribbean this year, which is likely if you look at the conditions, in October. It could be forced towards the US in a similar manner to October landfalling storms. We are not out of the woods yet, Irene should have been the big hint that this season isn't a tranquil one for the USA.




Quoting CybrTeddy:


Whatever you say doc..
i totally agree 100% and if people remember i said this back on june 1st
Nate's long-loop radar with landfall (very tough to pick out a center): Link

And surprising how little rainfall has come from it. Probably so little rainfall so as to avoid any landslide/mudslide issues.
1349. o22sail
Quoting Patrap:
Happy Birthday to Dr. Masters...




Cool!
hbd tu Dr. M
╱╭━━╮╱╱╱╱┏┓╱┏┓╱
╱┃╭╮┃╱╱╱┏╯┃┏╯┃╱
╱┃╰╯┃┏━┓┗┓┃┗┓┃╱
╱╰━┓┃┗━┛╱┃┃╱┃┃╱
╱┏━╯┃╱╱╱╱┃┃╱┃┃╱
╱┗━━╯╱╱╱╱┗┛╱┗┛╱ Gone but never forgotten ♥.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I hate to say it but I sure hope Maria does not decide to take an Ike like track.
Not really expecting that much of a southward turn, but wondering if that front pple are discussing will get Maria out of the zone before it impacts us. Mind u, NHC has been pretty on the ball with the timing of this stuff since Emily, but still....
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Probably: the deforested mountains of Florida, the Sunny Beaches of NOLA or the Bayous of Hati, anywhere but the burning swamps of Texas.
? Lol.
Quoting Patrap:
Happy Birthday to Dr. Masters...


Where's the cake? lol

And there goes our update for the day.... lol... he prolly got ambushed and carted off for fun and games.... lol

Quoting o22sail:


Cool!
hbd tu Dr. M


Thanks!

Jeff
Quoting atmoaggie:
Nate's long-loop radar with landfall (very tough to pick out a center): Link

And surprising how little rainfall has come from it. Probably so little rainfall so as to avoid any landslide/mudslide issues.
Any surge data? Talk about a tempest in a teapot.
Today's Jeff's Birthday?

HAPPY BIRTHDAY JEFF!

1357. will40
recon finding WNW winds but no true W yet
1358. 996tt
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have little doubt that Maria will not turn out to sea like the models are currently hinting. There is a strong Cold Front setting up near the Canada/USA border today, and it will enter the USA tomorrow. This is by far the strongest Cold Front we have seen since Winter/Spring, and it will result in 10-20 degree BELOW average temperatures across the Midwest. As Maria moves towards the WNW/NW, it will begin to interact with the Cold Front, and will be taken out to sea. It won't be a gradual turn like Irene, but a very sharp curve. The only areas I really see this affecting is Bermuda, other than the Caribbean Islands. IMO, Maria will get stronger than the NHC is indicating at this time, perhaps up to 85-90 mph.



Yep, as I have been saying since the day Lee started moving through, we are hitting a pattern that shuts the Northern GOM down for tropical storm activity. I can see basti11, who has been all over the place, jumped on board probably to try and annoy those of us who like and want tropical weather.

Sucks that another front is coming down. Temperatures are already cool and nice enough. What do we need to change that would say "open" the Northern GOM back up for business. Sucks to miss out on the best time frame for storms to get some crap Canadian air.
1359. Dakster
HAPPY BIRTHDAY DOC MASTERS!!!
------------------------------

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Models are latching onto the idea that the Cape Verde season isn't over, not quite yet. The CMC, ECMWF, GFS, and NGP all show a strong tropical wave, and perhaps a tropical depression near/over the Cape Verde Islands at 144 hours.

CMC @ 144 hours:



ECMWF @ 144 hours:



GFS @ 144 hours:



NGP @ 144 hours:



I notice most of those showing Newfoundland getting the full brunt of Maria. Ewwww.
Happy birthday Jeff!

Must feel kinda peculiar... having a day of celebration next to a day of an obvious subdued nature.

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Probably: the deforested mountains of Florida, the Sunny Beaches of NOLA or the Bayous of Hati, anywhere but the burning swamps of Texas.



ok
Quoting 996tt:


Yep, as I have been saying since the day Lee started moving through, we are hitting a pattern that shuts the Northern GOM down for tropical storm activity. I can see basti11, who has been all over the place, jumped on board probably to try and annoy those of us who like and want tropical weather.

Sucks that another front is coming down. Temperatures are already cool and nice enough. What do we need to change that would say "open" the Northern GOM back up for business. Sucks to miss out on the best time frame for storms to get some crap Canadian air.


By no means is the northern Gulf of Mexico closed for business. A storm could form in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, and move northward towards the Gulf coast. Not sure if you consider Florida part of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, but we are entering their season for tropical cyclones.
1364. Dakster
The mountains in Florida are so deforested, they took the mountains with them...

(and I know Shen was kidding...)
According to latest center fix Maria center has moved/relocated N/NNE, go figure
Happy Birthday Jeff!
1367. will40
From 260° at 20 knots
(From the W at ~ 23.0 mph)

there they are
Glitter Graphics

Happy Birthday Glitter Graphics



May only good things strike you this year..
there is a vary strong cold front that will be comeing down i noted a lot of highs back E and mid W will olny make it in too the mid too upper 60 with may be be even snow in the mts like MT CO WY even no none is in the forcast for them yet but with all this cold air comeing down you nevere no i even think that the gfs where even forcasting snow for IL a round the grat lakes i wounder if it still forcasting it any way with this strong cold front droping down the gulf will be close for any storm trying too from or will it?



oh happy B day dr m
Getting occasional downpours from Maria.
Quoting CREEYCRAWL:
i totally agree 100% and if people remember i said this back on june 1st



Member Since: September 5, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
Well, somebody didn't want to hit the islands, lol.

Wow to share a Birthday with 9/11 doc is something.But you were born first before this.
Recon has confirmed to me at least that Maria still has a closed circulation, whole page of west winds, a lot of them pure west winds. If anything, it has gotten better defined.
To Dr Masters.
Ha Be Birdy 2 Ewe.
Thanks for all you do.
May gentle weather blow through.
Ha Be Birdy 2 Ewe
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon has confirmed to me at least that Maria still has a closed circulation, whole page of west winds, a lot of them pure west winds. If anything, it has gotten better defined.


How are the winds?
Quoting stormpetrol:
According to latest center fix Maria center has moved/relocated N/NNE, go figure



Her coc is visible on this.
NEW BLOG
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


How are the winds?


SFMR decided to quit out on us, but this was recorded on the SFMR with a WNW wind.
27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, somebody didn't want to hit the islands, lol.


She still made it rain...a little. lol
So some of the models had a "yellow blob" headed towards South Florida, nothing organized. In recent days I saw it was dropped, but look at this little spin, interesting.Link
NEW BLOG

Thx. CybrTeddy
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


How are the winds?
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 16:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 14L in 2011
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 15:33:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°22'N 64°26'W (19.3667N 64.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 125 miles (202 km) to the ENE (58°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,481m (4,859ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 72 nautical miles (83 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 121° at 42kts (From the ESE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the east quadrant at 14:53:00Z
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Any surge data? Talk about a tempest in a teapot.
None that I know of.

Not likely higher than ~7 feet above normal, at a singular peak, with this one, though. *Could* be significant for some coastal folks, there, but certainly not spectacular.

With this profile, probably a wider area of ~4 feet above normal. IIRC, tidal range there is rather small, as well.

1385. 996tt
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


By no means is the northern Gulf of Mexico closed for business. A storm could form in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, and move northward towards the Gulf coast. Not sure if you consider Florida part of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, but we are entering their season for tropical cyclones.


I hope you are correct. Looking for some wave action and fun up here in Panhandle. I agree that lower Peninsula is at risk. With similar weather patterns, caribbean storms seem to travel sharply west, ala Nate, for Mexico or traveled due through the Florida straights, ala Wilma. If you say one cold still punch through, cool. I had hoped the current front would lose its grip, but bummed about the new cold front. Maybe it won't come so far South.
Not trying to sound rude, but
NEW BLOG!!!!!!
1364 Dakster "The mountains in Florida are so deforested, they took the mountains with them...

Get your Florida beachfront properties while they're still affordable ;-)
1389. 996tt
Quoting Tazmanian:
there is a vary strong cold front that will be comeing down i noted a lot of highs back E and mid W will olny make it in too the mid too upper 60 with may be be even snow in the mts like MT CO WY even no none is in the forcast for them yet but with all this cold air comeing down you nevere no i even think that the gfs where even forcasting snow for IL a round the grat lakes i wounder if it still forcasting it any way with this strong cold front droping down the gulf will be close for any storm trying too from or will it?



oh happy B day dr m


Haha, I think I kind of understood what you are saying. Another deep and unseasonably cold front could mean storms will remain well South or block GOM entrance. Its seems like in years past, such occurrences have meant the end of fun so to speak. Hope not and I hate cold weather.
1390. basti11
Quoting 996tt:


Yep, as I have been saying since the day Lee started moving through, we are hitting a pattern that shuts the Northern GOM down for tropical storm activity. I can see basti11, who has been all over the place, jumped on board probably to try and annoy those of us who like and want tropical weather.

Sucks that another front is coming down. Temperatures are already cool and nice enough. What do we need to change that would say "open" the Northern GOM back up for business. Sucks to miss out on the best time frame for storms to get some crap Canadian air.



you are one sick individual ...you need to experience a cat 5 i have been in 2...ill say some prayers for you lord knows you need them ...wishing harm on peopel you should be lynched to the highest tree..
1391. ncstorm
the 00z CMC showing system off the East Coast




06Z NOGAPS showing the same system