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No change to Caribbean disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:05 AM GMT on September 27, 2005

The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Hispanolia, has changed little this afternoon, and remains very disorganized. There is no surface circulation, and pressures are not falling significantly. This disturbance split in two this morning, and the leading (westernmost) portion was effectively destroyed by wind shear associated with an upper level low to its northwest. The trailing (eastern) portion of the disturbance south of Hisponolia has about 10 knots of shear over it, which is marginal for tropical storm development.

The upper level low is moving to the north away from the disturbance, and a favorable low-shear environment is forecast to set up over the disturbance by Wednesday or Thursday. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area on Tuesday, but I doubt it will be needed until Wednesday. I still give this disturbance a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm by Friday, when it should be near western Cuba or in the Gulf of Mexico. It is far too early to even offer even an educated guess about what might happen then.



Mid-Atlantic disturbance
A tropical disturbance located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has effectively been destroyed by wind shear imparted by a large upper-level low pressure system to its west. Development of this disturbance is not expected. The ITCZ is very active in the region extending from the African coast westwards for 1000 miles. Tropical storm development along this area is possible later this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A cluster of thunderstorms accosiated with the tail end of the cold front that pulled Rita northeast across the U.S. is now emerging over the northern Gulf of Mexico, near the Florida Panhandle. Strong upper levels winds should prevent any development in this area for at least the next two days.

Alaska and Hawaii
We don't talk much about these states in my tropical blog, but Nome, Alaska had a huge mid-latitude cyclone hit them Friday. The storm brought sustained tropical storm force winds gusting to 52 mph, a 10-foot storm surge, and a pressure of 972 mb! This was in essence a Category 1 hurricane, as far as the storm surge and pressure go. Thanks to wunderphotographer Destiny, who brought this newspaper article to my attention.

Hawaii has its second tropical system of the season to be concerned with. Hawaii dodged major Hurricane Jova last week, andTropical Storm Kenneth is expected to pass within 100 miles of the Islands by the end of the week. Kenneth should only be a tropical depression by then, and bring a few extra rain showers to the islands.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Here is an interesting excerpt from the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook:

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W
10 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N71W. PRESSURE FALLS ARE
OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE THOUGH THE CONVECTION PATTERN IS
DISORGANIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER A
CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IN THE W CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE DAYS.
PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 65W-72W.
DR. Jeff

Did an upper level low cause chuck's rapid hard right last Aug 13th(friday!) or a trough? I swear it was a trough but doc says it was an upper level. I am feeling the effects of the current upper level low over cuba now (rain and thunder since 2pm) if an ull did cause charley to turn right...how does this current feature play a part in 3 or 4 days? I live in Cape Coral (west of Ftmyers on the water)if a trough did it....is there one on schedule
i'm showing my concerns for i am going to alabama this tue and wont be back till next monday i live in zephyrhills fl 40 ne of tampa
looks even more ragged than ever right now:
Link

hoping it doesn't reform too much overnight due to that cycle lefty mentioned.
I think this wave will develop IF it can survive the next two days.
I'm almost positive it will develop given the luck we've had this season. I'm just hoping it interacts with enough land on it's route to the gulf not to turn into a huge cat3+. Though who knows, it could get blown apart before entering that more favorable period. Sure isn't looking as impressive tonight as it did around noon.
I am curious about one thing and maybe Dr. Masters or Lefty can clear this up. Take a look at the southern tip of Florida on this water vapor loop. There is a very large area of clockwise motion... What is that?

Link
Im sorry, counter clockwise, my mistake.
I see it too... It's actually counter clockwise
Where are you FLGLFCST, Im in Pensacola..
Hope you guys are doing ok. Had to take a blog break after rita. We still got a decent looking season ahead of us. But I doubt we see another big big storm.
Im in Pensacola also. I'm in the military and I like to be on top of these things as I want to be ready when they yell Evac again.
I would really like to know what that is...

It may be what they were talking about earlier when they said that there is a anticyclonic flow that will interact with the wave
Yeah I know
"they" being other bloggers
Is that just an upper level low pressure area? Is that not what they were talking about that is causing the shear on the tropical wave?
Hey Carbo, blog was dead earlier when I was at work... StormyDee and I were trying to find other cool weather stuff, lol..

But then Weatherwannabe and Lefty started arguing, so we had something to entertain us...
I'm not sure Bill...
Yeah, that's the upper level, all's been refuring to that caused the shear
See you guys later, was just checking in on the little Carribean Blob

Have a goodnight all =)
hey all whats going on in here 2night...
yeah its an upper low. sorry i just got back on
Whats up everyone.. Its been a little while...
Link~ Hurricane charley was steered by a unusually strong cold front for the early month of AUG.
the link picture shows te C. front very well.
for buhdog~ you are right
FLGLFCST,
That thing off of FL is a Upper Level Low Pressure and is going to cross the gulf this week... Upperlevel Lows go counterclockwise and High Pressures go Clockwise...
Hey 79 how are you tonight??? and do you think that the Blob will turn into our next storm???
Im looking at 99L. Right now it flares up late at night, but thats normal with a disorganized system. There seems to be room for development in a window of 24 to 96 hours as it moves through the NW Caribbean Sea. after that, highly questionable, with a strong ridge expected to reach the Southeast according to the GFS.
taco2me, doing great now that I am not working..lol... That system has a decent chance to develop starting in about 24 hours when the shear relaxes a bit. So, we may see development in the NW Caribbean, maybe near Jamaica. There is a lot of uncertainty with the synoptic pattern over the US right now, so any thoughs are vague about where and what will happen to the system if it ever reched the Gulf.
Hey 79. Do you think that ridge could pull the system N into the NE gulf or farther west?
RITA IS STALLED OUT DUMPING ALL OF THAT RAIN JUST LOOK AT THAT...........Boy the NHC really BOMBED that forecast!
Well do you think that the sheer will be there after 48hrs to keep it from forming???
79,
I did not see your post before I posted... I'm haveing computer problems tonight... Sorry...
The ridge that the GFS forecast to move to the Southeast would force the Caribbean System West. That is, if the system does not arrive into the Gulf before the ridge arrives. still too early to tell. This (GFS) is only one model that shows the US that far out. The system will have a 72 hour window from what I can see 24 to 96 hours from now for development.
The convection along the wave in the carribean has completly diminished. Tropical storm formation is no longer expected.
Hey wayne,
I do not beleive that the NHC has got one right yet...
wayne, there is a good chance that the lack of storms in that area will turn into another burst of convection later tonight, similar to the past few nights.
wayne, when a syatem is weak and un orginised it is dependent on the diurinal cycle. u will see loss of convection during the heatting of the day and late at night after the atmosphere cools u will see a blow up of convection again. its done it 2 nights in a row and is classic behavior for a system over water.
wayne: I think saying it is no longer expected is premature. I remember Rita looking about like this one a few days before she formed.
It still looks like a whole lot of nothing
Hey thats not all we have to worry about the Troft and the cold front are going to stall when it gets to the gulf and sometimes they will form a storm aswell...
I'm not staying on long here but I found an article that most of you will find interesting.

http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEM4628X9DE_index_0.html

I'm still resting from blogging on Rita. Looks like the system in the Carribean is developing some low circulation but who knows if anything is going to develop in that area.
Wannabe: It looks to me like a potential Cat 3 headed for the Gulf. Wanna bet on it wannabe? Do ya? Do ya? Do ya? Huh? Huh? Huh? LOL Just kidding. Let's not go back there...
HI ALL
most of our local forecasters in LA are saying that the most likely track is into the Yucatan and that if it does come into the gulf, it's likely that cold fronts will push it into the NE gulf.

Don't know how accurate they are, but that's the word down here for what it is...
Also, what are the chances of the shear tearing apart the storm before it gets to the favorable area?
PCB I'll take that bet LOL
Buhdog - I was referring to patterns that might evolve affecting TD19/Stan. I don't remember offhand what the steering patterns were on Charley, but I imagine a frontal trof moved it NE. You might have better memory on that...or if you could access the wv loop for Charley from graphics archive...I have a hard time finding them and if I do my dial-up makes it painfully slow.

On that note, anyone have suggestions?

The low I was talking about is currently causing rain/T-storms over S FL and it may or may not be a major factor later in the life cycle of our newest blob. Some forecasters seem to discount their relevance. I don't.

Let me explain my views.
If you can also find in graphics archive the wv loop showing Katrina's
development, take notice when she was over the Bahamas moving NW/WNW - you will see a preceeding up low feature ahead of Kat, also moving NW. The main steering engine was the Atlantic high which began shifting east (In fact, some forecasts called for Katrina to move up the east coast of FL). Now here's what makes it tricky...if I remember correctly, the up low feature ran into a "brick wall" - a weak trof had been pulling both northward. Then another strong high centered over the Gulf states shut that movement by building in below the trof. I believe the up low feature got squashed/dissolved at this point. However, it either reformed or was replaced by a new one which then began moving SW across S FL - Katrina responded by following as well, 1st by turning WNW/W then - to many peoples amazement - SW. The GFDL had earlier predicted such a movement would occur and was only off slightly (timing). A lot of forecasters missed this.

If you watch the path that upper low feature took - down thru FL and then across the Gulf, you'll see Katrina followed almost perfectly...only difference, the up low made it into Texas fusing w/ the southwesterly flowing trof, becoming tremendously elongated. By the time Kat was catching up she had no choice but to begin moving north as the trof continued it's eastward progression and the overhead, main steering high shifted east - opening the door, so to speak.

Nearly all major tropical cyclones have some sort of guidance/influenced movement related to an attendant upper low, although the main guidance is usually associated with high pressure ridges and frontal troughs.
That's what I've observed. Right or wrong...who knows.

Too early to call on the "latest blobby". Certainly a fairly strong front should pass thru by weeks end across the South and East coast, with a strong 1028 mb high pressure ridge stretching from Labrador southwestward to Texas thru Tue. 10-4-05. After that, well.....
Doc
If you get a chance to read the article I posted, it may explain why they gave Rita lower wind velocities then the pressure would suggest. They have been using data derived from the satellites to give Rita wind intesity.
Hey Ms Amorris, how are you tonight???
Thanx for the confirmation CJ and DOC...I remember at the time of charlie saying cold front!!!!??? this time of year..AUG? This is what concerns me here in SWFL...The fronts are starting to get closer and closer...Doc...what is this upper level supposed to do? go west and stall? If so would that shear the system for a while and keep it in place until a trough picks it up? I must say I did not know upper levels played such a key part in this situation. I have been coming for a while to this blog and some of you I have come to know by reading your posts....I feel I have read enough to now join the discussions......from and outsider in :weatherwannabe is a frickin jerk...Lefty420 I hope you invoke your screen name and chill..I love your relaying of the info happening

buhdog
ok where did everybody go are yall still there???
insiteful post buhdog
guys be nice to the wannabe.....
he seems to have issues.
NOTE: the wannabe part..this tells a story =)
You wanna bet on that Wannabe-----your name says it all!
children - weather.
OK OK OK we get it, dont mess with Lefty or his gang will get you. Discuss weather or get off the blog.
play nice children
wait a sec you messed up on that post...here let me fix it for you.

children = weatherwannabe.
Buh, what is your theory on the TCHP vs SST issue? Do you have anything to contribute here?
Ummmm, Clickish? No, I'm thinking that we just want you to be quiet so the grownups can talk. As far as high school issues go, your the only one on here screaming like your 15 years old. Most people here have useful questions and like to have them answered, however its all getting buried by your childish screaming at lefty and anyone else who doesnt side with you. If you need friends or attention so bad why dont you try AOL, they have chat rooms for you to fight with people your age and you can trash each other all night. As for the people of this blog, I'm sure they would like to discuss weather and the POSSIBILITY of a another storm, because thats what this is, a DISSCUSSION, not Wannabe's flame war forum. If you need a Wannabe's flame war forum I suggest you go pay the domain name fee and open one up, otherwise unless you have something useful to add you need to shut your mouth, as all you have done is make a fool of yourself and inhibit other people from gaining answers to their LEGITIMATE questions.
Weatherwannabe,

Listen we all don't think that every storm will be doom & gloom and there is always a chance that one or more of these storms will come close to where we live... Now if a storm hits your area weather it is a Tropical Storm or a Hurricane it is bad because you lose just about everything you own...Thats where the gloom comes from and you ask anybody that has been hit by just one of these storms and they will tell you it was bad... So on that note lets not go there ok... Now as for the NHC says that we are to get approx: 5 more storms this year and we all have to remember that they have not been right yet and they might not be right now, but we will have to see...
so what up in the weather her her in sonora i got a lighting show going on weeeeeeee i like lighting show at night they are coool
hey i thought that new title had a special spark to it*

im not apart of any lefty gang

gotta fly..
FLG have been, where have you been? Do you even have a clue as to the nature of the disagreement? If so, please share your theories on the issue.
thank you for fixing it for me
Yah Taco - that was a bit of an over generlization. whatever, lets talk about weather.
Clearly I stepped on some sensitive toes when I challenegd Lefty - I dont think anyone should be above being challeneged here, and I dont apologize for it. I'm here and I will get along with some fellow bloggers. I hope to get along with most of you.

Some of you I won't and I don't honestly care. If you don't like that fact I don't care, but please keep your comments to weather related issues. I beleive that was Dr. masters instruction. Thanks.
do any one think the the R storm may come back
The issue is as such. This season has been like nothing ever witnessed before. The shear number of storms and disturbances coupled with two of the five strongest hurricanes ever forming in a one month period leads me to believe that any forecast of what will happen next is a educated guess at best (Notice the word GUESS). Dr. Masters, Lefty, and others up to this point have offered their best estimates as to what will happen, and never once have they said "This WILL happen". This is enough for me, these people seem to have a grasp on how these things work and can offer at best an estimate of what will happen next. This is very diffrent from your usual "I KNOW EXACTLY WHATS GONNA HAPPEN AND EVERYONE WHO DISAGREES IS WRONG." attitude, this is further proven in your attempt to "Bet" lefty that something is not going to happen. Lefty doesnt want to bet, so you call him a coward. Not betting doesnt make him a coward or less knowlegable, what it makes him is informed. The NHC can't even tell us what is "Next", so how do you expect him to? All he can do is offer his best guess, which I think is well informed (It might not always be right, but it is well informed).

Furthermore, with the way things have turned out this season how can you say there won't be another one? Are you on a first name basis with the Gulf of Mexico? Have the voices in your head told you it won't happen? Frankly, given the situation anyone claiming they "KNOW" what will happen is by and far a mad man, and doesnt need to be handing out advice to others.

And yes, I do believe it can happen again this season. If it does or not is not up to You, Me, The NHC, or Lefty. It's up to mother nature to decide what happens next, and you screaming at people on a web blog doesnt change that. Nor does it give you the apperance of being superior or "Right" in any sense. So knock it off and let us discuss what we want to.
amen flg
FLG, Dr. Masters asked politely to keep it our discussions to tropical weather. If you want to discuss whatever you want there are many places for you to do so. Please respect the others on this blog. If you have any questions plese direct them to Dr. Masters.
I have made my predictions, I have frequently stated that I am not an "expert", I do my own analysis and make my own forecasts. AS SUCH, I accept that others have differing opinions. Get over it.
Bring on the tropics! and we will discuss them! LOL
LEFTY it was nearly impossible to get you to make any kind of concrete preditions based on your personal theory of tropical development and intensification in the Gulf this year. I still disagree with you that there will be sufficent heat energy in the Gulf this year to allow another majot hurricane. I'm not the only one that has this belief and unlike some people I am willing to make a concrete forecast based on my theory. I guess some people just don't have any backbone.
weatherwannabe: is your forecast against enough heat content in the gulf to support a major hurricane?
If I am wrong I will give you a personal and sincere apology although I doubt it wouldbe the first time that someone made a prediction that turned out to be wrong on this blog. But, the difference between you and me is I don't really care if I am wrong.
hurricane, yes that is my forecast. No more cat 3+ sustained or intensifying hurricanes in the gulf this year. I give it a 90% chance against but for the sake of being cut and dry (and making a meaningfu prediction) I say there will be NO MORE this year.
lol wanabe. ur not making a forcast ur doing climitaolgy. thats different. noiw when a syatem gets in the gulf i wil make a prediction based on the situation of that storm. i have said befor the heat content in the gulf right now is high enough to support a cat3 and cat 4 in places. the gulf loop will rebound in 2-3 weeks as its source the carribean is still hot and hot to great depths. see the fact we have not had any storms late in the year in the carribean has led to it being super hot and deep. that hot water will flow into the gulf via the gulf loop. now if we could get a couple storms in the carribean to drain that heat the loop would have less heat to draw from. till that happens the loop will contiue to heat back up and both katrina and rita blew up over the loop, not the gulf its self. so as long as the carribean is hot the loop will rebound
lol wanabe. ur not making a forcast ur doing climitaolgy. thats different. noiw when a syatem gets in the gulf i wil make a prediction based on the situation of that storm. i have said befor the heat content in the gulf right now is high enough to support a cat3 and cat 4 in places. the gulf loop will rebound in 2-3 weeks as its source the carribean is still hot and hot to great depths. see the fact we have not had any storms late in the year in the carribean has led to it being super hot and deep. that hot water will flow into the gulf via the gulf loop. now if we could get a couple storms in the carribean to drain that heat the loop would have less heat to draw from. till that happens the loop will contiue to heat back up and both katrina and rita blew up over the loop, not the gulf its self. so as long as the carribean is hot the loop will rebound
sorry bout the double post. comp messing up
Lefty, still up man? wondering if caught earlier post I had @ 3:26am GMT in reply to Buhdog. I'm still thinking a few points.

Might be interesting to watch how Fl upper low progresses...it's certainly drawing moisture away from surface low potential...shearing still...

I'm thinking when the upper low weakens enough, unable to induce convection on it's own, TD19 will form in response.
lefty I am making a forecast, my forecast is no more cat 3+ canes in the gulf in 2005 - this is the problem with you Lefty - you are always trying to change the subject to the irelevant. It fools a lot of people though so good job.

Back to your theories, you are overestimating the heat that will return to the gulf and underestimating the fact that fall has arrived and there isn't as much heat energy.
weatherwannabe, There will be another major hurricane in the Gulf, provided that a storm enters the Gulf again this season, and shear is not high. The heat content is definitely enough to support it.
Has anyone else noticed there is a typhoon in the westpac named Longwang? It is impossible not to laugh at that.
well the wave is going to move into an area of anti-cylonoc flow between the two upper lows. this is its window to develop. this shpu;d happen in 24-36 hrs. so once the wave gtes to jamica or so it will be under a broud anti-cyclone.
The Gulf heat content is slow to respond to air temperatures in the fall. Actually, there has been no cooler air from a fall cold front to hit the Gulf so far that comes to mind. Even if we see one or 2 weak fronts, it will take at least 4 to 5 days after that for the water temperatures to catch up.

LEFTY, to draw an analogy, its like me saying "that Honda Civic won't top 145, it doesnt have enough horespower and besides its low on gas" and you say "it IS possible the civic is areodynamicly capable of doing 125 and its has the torque and besides there is that gas station 15 miles down the road so it can fill up and I think there could be a good tailwind later" - you say a lot that sounds good but a lot of it is just nonsense.
lol wannabe. what are u talking about. i stated why the gulf lop will rebound and the fact that the heat content in the gulf is high enough to support a cat3-cat4. when the loop rebounds than we could see a possible cat 5 if a system was to run over it.

like 79 said and i pointed out to you earlier, there are more issues than just heat content, upper level winds will play a major role as well. but don't take my word for it. 79 is a meterologist so i guess he would know more than both of us. and he seems to feel the heat content is still hig enouhg for a major cane
79 how are you measuring heat content?
wannabe just wants to be able to say "You are wrong Lefty!" That is his only point to this stupid discussion about predictions. It has been going on for close to 10hrs now. Get over it wannabe. You are wrong and Lefty is right most of the time, so just get over it. You are not as smart as Lefty, and you are letting it eat your inards out.

Everyone can make as many predictions as they want an mother nature can still prove you wrong so predictions are just educated geusses and you can expect to be wrong sometimes. Especially with tropical systems.

I predict that wannabe will say something stupid in response to this. How's that for a prediction.
79 there is less solar radiation striking the gulf. The days are shorter. That is more important that air temp.
Trying to pull up stats..but, in most years of the last several years (except 2004). If the season was above average, then there was either a hurricane originating in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico that resulted in a major hurricane. It does not have to hit the US, but it was supported by water temperatures, or dynamics, or both.
wanabe i explained to you the dynamicsof the water flow and heat being put into the gulf. 70 percent of the heat in the gulf comes from the equator thri cirrents like the gulf loop. as long as the carribean is hot the gulf loop will rebound
weatherwannabe, just looking at the SST's and a map showing the anomalies: Link
lmfao Hawk. Thanks for pointing that out.
wassup sj man. u still at work
wannabe the sun is only responsible for 30 percent of the heat in the gulf. that why we have the gulf loop. the gulf loop originates in the equator where the sst are boiling. thats why no matter how much sun we had with out the gulf loop the gulf would neevr get above 60-70 degrees.
then why arent there any tropical systems in the winter Lefty
Looks like LongWang will be a major one for the China Coast too!!!
here is the heat content of the gulf and shows that its high enough to support a 3 or 4



here is the depth of the 26c isotherm so you can see the deep hot water that will flow into the gulf via the gulf loop

Sorry, I meant to add October storms to the comment I posted at 5:24 AM UTC
Yeah, and I may not get off til 6 or 7. ARghh. Something really screwy is going on with the blog tonight.
becasue by late fall to winter the upper enviroment is not suffice to support cyclone development as well as the waters from thr topics continue to cool as they are drained of heat. thats why the end date of the season is nov 30 but we have had storms as late as january befor.
the currents carry the warm waters away from the tropics. ny late fall the tropics are drained of heat from both the currents and the formation of cyclones through out the summer and fall
Well China did pick the name I guess its only fitting
Lefty I vacation in Florida in the early spring. The place I vacation has water temps in the 60s in March in the summer they are near 90 degrees. The loop is nowhere near it so how is this possible? What is causing that water to heat 30 degrees in 4 months?
weatherwannabe, your conversation brings up an important point: There has been only one storm that has had "explosive" development in the Gulf in October that I can remember. This doesn't mean that a storm cannot enter the Gulf and become a strong hurricane. Dating back to Opal, there was a cold front that had actually passed before Opal came across the Gulf, but the cold air had not affected the Gulf water temperatures, and upper air outflow was enhanced by a trough.
Lefty and 79,

I am in Pensacola FL and that Low (Rita's remains) just passed over us tonight. I can tell you that the atmosphere change was noticeable in the area it passed over (Rain was a dead give away but all in all it had a total effect on the air and general feeling of the area). My question to you two is what is next for this little (Little is really figurative term as this thing really isnt that small) blob? Do either of you see it making a go at reforming in to a tropical system? Or will the manner and area it exited prevent that from happening? If it does have a chance, where might it go?
LEFTY LEFTY LEFTY, why don't you ever post this one

Link
the loop. the loop is always in the gulf. durring the winter and spring the carribean build up its sst to greetes depths and those warm hot waters flow into the gulf and by spring have started to heat the gulf back up.
hey I admit that I am not even close to an expert on tropical climatology and I have a bit of a big mouth, but I am still trying to figure out why LEFTY only posts SST and 26.C ISOTHEM but never posts TCHP, which by its very name "Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential" and the fact that every "expert" seems to refer to TCHP seems to indicate that it is the more important of the maps. Lefty, please explain why you don't consider TCHP the least bit relavant.
wannabe casue thats not the imagery used bu the nhc or the global models. they use the reynolds version of that imagery. thats what i posted. what u posted is more likley the tmi and the tmi is nopt very accurate as it uses bouys and since there are not many buys in the gulf it estimates what the water temps to great depths are. the reynolds uses the tmi as well as satelites. thats why i post the reynolds.


now on the gulf the waters near ther shore the ones u swim in heat up due to the sun but the great amount of heat content put in the gulf is due to the gulf loop
FLGLFCST, The remnants of Rita will move SW towards the SW Gulf. Rita was absorbed into a frontal boundary yesterday and you probably felt a drop of 4 to 5 degrees because of the cold front. (First of the season). If shear lets up in a few days, there could be a very slight chance for development, but nothing likely
LEFTy I never said the loop wasnt in the gulf all year. However, there is more to this story than what you have shared. There are water temp reasons that isn't tropical development in the Gulf in the winter, come on LEFTY.
flg it is highly unlikley that the remants of rita will reform.
Someone please corect me if im wrong but those two maps of ocean heat content posted by lefty and wannabe seem to be saying the same thing only one shows 50 as a blueish color and one as green, right?
LEFTY, Dr. Masters uses that image. Here we go again with your bs.
wannabe read the title of this pic. ocean heat content

Tahoe, my link shows the total tropical heat potential basically the quality of the available fuel for tropical development. Lefty's show that the amount of fuel but don't take into consderation the quality of that fuel. At least I beleive that is the difference.
wannabe, the atmosphere is no longer warm enough to support tropical developmetn ion the winter, also there are stronger trofs that travel accross the atlantic shearing any systems that would form apart.
Tahoetech, MOL yes, but, the difference in the heat content compared to the actual temps is mainly the depth of the warm waters. There are areas of the Gulf that hace a higher depth of warmer waters, but shallow warm waters would have only been affected by Rita or Katrina.
whatever lefty. Time to head to bed. When Masters says you know what you are talking about I'll be a believer.
wannabe my image says heat content. read it man
Ahh that makes sense, thanks to both of ya
lefty your heat content map has totally different data represnted that NOAA has on their maps. The name on your seems to indicate that it measuring Sea Surface Temp (SST) and not TCHP. NOAA has an SST map as well.
wannabe i couldn;t give a damn if u think i know what i am talking about. thats the problem. u think i need to prove something. i have nothing to prove. on the other hand u feel u must prove m,e to be wrong or so,me kind of a fake. well knock ur self out
lol the reynolds heat content map is used by the nhc and the models. i will give you a link here

Link
Looking at both sets of images, it certainly looks like the Guld has cooled off quite a bit. The loop current will pull more hot water into the gulf no doubt, but if a system were to travel over the gulf over the next few days, I'd be shocked if it exceeded CAT 2. KAT and RITA have sapped quite a large amount of energy out of the gulf. The loop current is not very speedy if I recall, so I think the gulf coast can relax a bit.
here is the sst from the reynold method


and this is the reynolds version of heat content

lefty - I'm trying to figure this stuff out and I want to make sure that people that are spouting off opinions know what they are talking about. You seem to talk a lot of nonsense, what are your creds? Are you a PhD in meterology?
tim, this was the gulf befor rita. remebr she blew up into a 897mb cat 5

LEFTY SAYS "wannabe casue thats not the imagery used bu the nhc or the global models. they use the reynolds version of that imagery. thats what i posted. what u posted is more likley the tmi and the tmi is nopt very accurate as it uses bouys and since there are not many buys in the gulf it estimates what the water temps to great depths are. the reynolds uses the tmi as well as satelites. thats why i post the reynolds."

Well look what I found:

Satellite altimetry blended data, including those from NASA's TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 missions, were used to estimate the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, a measure of the oceanic heat content from the sea surface to the depth of the 26C isotherm) in the Gulf of Mexico in near-real time. TCHP fields will be critical to scientists and forecasters to better understand the link between the ocean and the intensification Katrina and other hurricanes.



Link

LEFTY you are full of bs
wanabe not that it matters but i am in school now to get my fegree in meterology. now i only go prt time but i will finish it up soon enough
trust me wannabe i know what i am talking about
if you're trying to figure this stuff out wannabe, wtf are you doing here? This is an enthusiasts internet forum for christ sake. You expect PHD's here?
A little knowledge can be adangerous thing - I assume you are gettgin your BS and not MS or PhD. You were dead wrong again on the TCHP vs SST issue. What else are you wrong about?
wanabe, is was refering the tmi version of heat content to that of reynolds. thats why i use the reynolds version as its whats used by the nhc and all global models
Lefty and 79,
Thanks, My concern in the area of those remains is not that PCola was in trouble but the fact that another storm could form that close to the coast, something that close with not alot of warning could be very bad.

Now on to more interesting matters, the area below PR. I heard comments of a track Ala Ivan earlier tonight? Is it a possiblity? I guess anything is at this point as it isnt even a depression yet. I don't want to see another storm, I really don't but at the same time I wanna see how much power this season can turn out. After riding Ivan out in a school house I have become fascinated with these monsters. So what do you think? IF it becomes a hurricane, any guess on path?
wannabe what are u talking about. i am using the reynolds heat content imagery just as the nhc does. ur an idiot
Well, the floater1 is now on the 99L system in the Caribbean, for those who hadnt already seen it: Link (Blackout over within the hour)
here u go wanabe. from the noaa website

A real-time global sea surface temperature (SST) analysis has been developed by Richard Reynolds from the Environmental Modeling Center of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Also, a monthly one-degree global SST climatology was constructed using these analyses by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC/NOAA). This climatology derived from monthly Optimum Interpolation (OIv2) SST analyses with an adjusted base period of 1971-2000 was used in computing the SST anomaly field using a weighted monthly mean climatology and the current observed Reynolds SST field. The actual areal coverage of the analysis and the anomally data is roughly between 60S and 60N globally. These analyses were based on ship and buoy SST data supplemented with satellite SST retrievals. The one degree climatology and analyses resolve equatorial upwelling and fronts.

The optimum interpolation (OIv2) SST analysis is produced weekly on a one-degree grid. The analysis uses buoy and ship data, satellite SST data, and SST's simulated by sea-ice coverage. Before the analysis is computed, the satellite data is adjusted for biases using the method described by Reynolds (1988) and Reynolds and Marsico (1993). A description of the analysis can be found in Reynolds and Smith (1994).

The Tropical Prediction Center / National Hurricane Center uses the SST analyses in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity in statistical hurricane models. Every Monday or Tuesday the graphics are updated for the previous week. The SST analyses are separated into Eastern Pacific and Atlantic domains. An analysis and anomaly chart are produced for each domain. The analysis chart contains the current SST comprised from current observations. The anomaly chart is the global SST climatology subtracted from the SST analysis.

flg

the bamm tracks what ever forms across cuba or between cuba and the yucatan and into the gul. like charley and ivan. right now nothing hs formed and when and if it does we will have a betetr handle on where it will go
Yeah I dont know a damn thing about this except what is on the web. But I assume the people at NASA and NOAA are not idiots and they disagree with you LEFTY.
wannabe i am done arguing with you. doen;t matter what i say or do so whats the point. just ignore me as i will u. ur whole purpose os to prove me wrong. well have fun
FLGLFCST, Too early to speculate. please ask me tomorrow (Tues. PM) when I can have time to see synoptic trends.
wannabe i am done arguing with you. u hve issues and i am tired of the crap. so i will just ignore u like the troll u are
wanabe ur an idiot. u need therapy as well
PS - thanks LEfty i learned a few things and was greatly entertained in the process!!! Thanks - but I'm still winning our bet!!!
and u didn't get my goat. ur ignorance is ur problem not mine. i will just ignore you and let u look like an idiot on ur own
Test the knowledge in the field y'all: tell us what is to come of the wave in the Caribbean in 72 hours:
No forecast???? Heres mine: Link
Let me geuss 79-It goes across Central to N Florida?lol. Just giving you a hard time. All in good fun. I will check the link now.
i agree with ur forcast 79, think she will be stringer by friday but we will see. did u see the post black out images. very nice blow up over the area of low pressure. will ahve to see what it does thru the night and tomm durring the day
That is a huge cone 79 and rightfully so. Good track forcast at this point.
Stormjunkie, I am having a hard time trying to refresh the page. I think this is a systemwide problem though, judging from the rest of the bloggers. Please be patient
Nice forcast track 79. Huge cone and that should be expected right now.
After seeing the new satellite images after the blackout, it appears that a farther West location is more probable.
Nice forcast 79. Huge cone as it should be right now. Well done.
Sorry for multiple post, something screwy tonight either with my network or the WG server.
Back to work so I can get out of here sometime in the next 4 hours.
yeah the surface anylasis shows the low being cenetred right where the convection blew up.
wow the wave is relly starting to take off tonight. will have to see if it orginises more durring the day. this blow up is mostly due to diurinal cooling but if the pressure fallscontinue a llc could develop
also the remants of rita is blowing up some nice convection and will need to be watched. the wave in the middle of the atlantic looks much beetr as well. looks like those 3 areas been busy tonight. will see what they do. i belive the wave in the carribean will fomr into a depresion in the next 24 hrs
alright did some looking heres what i see

the remants of rita will have a tough time due to shear from the ull that was affecteing the pr wave. this ull has moved north towards florida. this moveemnt has allowed the shear to relax over the wave south of pr. this will alow that wave to develop into a td but make it unlikley the remants of rita will flare back up but she still needs to be watched
the ull is being pulled north by the cold front so in 2 days or so anything left from rota will have a chance than, but its unlikley as it will encounter the pr wave and likley get sucked into it. but still needs to be watched. this moving north of the ull will alow the wave to blossom and with sst and heat content in the carribean so high explosive development is likely and we could see ts stan in 36-48 hrs or sooner
I know that model is early but it looks like it's heading into Mexico. Why would it do that?
ill tale a pepperoni thick crust hey can i get bacon on that too

lol hey pizza guy lol
174. IKE
I think that BAMM model has blob jr./Stan staying weak and forced west by building high pressure.

Impressive blow-up on Stan-to-be this morning and it's moving along at a decent clip.
175. IKE
I'll try this again...I think the latest BAMM model has blob jr./Stan staying weak and forced west by building high pressure.

An impressive blow-up by Stan this morning and it's moving along at a decent clip.
With Pizza and Coffee there can be world peace
I'm not sure what is happening next, but i do know something big will happen soon. We had this couple of day lull after Dennis, Emily, Katrina, and now Rita. This season is far from over. I wouldn't even be suprised to see a 3rd, and Mitch like cat. 5 in the Carribean this year in October.
178. IKE
Something will develop soon...probably within a couple of days. The weather pattern remains warm along the Gulf Coast and SE US of A. That cooler air that was suppose to make it into the SE by Friday isn't...it's going more east then south. A front will come down, but the cooler air won't. Stan will be around somewhere.

Pizza and coffee????
179. IKE
This blog has technical issues....

And the arguing on here!@!@!@!@ Ugh/////////
180. IKE
A new thread by the doctor.