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Nicole's precursor moisture dumping epic rains on North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:29 PM GMT on September 29, 2010

The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, is here, but not for long. Observations from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite imagery show that the storm is being stretched along a north-south axis as it gets absorbed into a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast. A separate extratropical storm is developing along a stalled-out front along the coast of South and North Carolina, and much of Nicole's moisture and energy will begin feeding into this new storm today and Thursday, leading to the demise of Nicole by Thursday. Nicole continues to dump torrential rains on Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the western Bahamas as it tracks steadily north-northeastwards up the U.S. East Coast. Some rain amounts from Nicole since yesterday morning include 9.14" at Plantation Key, FL and 8.47" at Irwindale in western Jamaica. In Southeast Florida, radar-estimated rainfall amounts of 4 - 10" are common across the coast (Figure 1.)

Surface observations don't show any winds in excess of 25 mph near the center of Nicole, and the strongest winds are located several hundred miles southeast of the center. Some of the stronger winds measured today were at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba (39 mph, gusting to 53 mph) and Cayman Brac Island in the Grand Caymans (33 mph, gusting to 43 mph).


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida. Nicole has brought over ten inches of rain to the Middle and Upper Keys.

Extreme rainfall for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the precursor moisture from Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC has measured 15.83 inches of rain over the past three days, as of 4pm EDT. This is the city's second highest 3-day total in history, behind the 19.06" that fell in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. The non-tropical low pressure system developing along the South Carolina/North Carolina coast today will move northwards, giving North and South Carolina an additional blast of heavy rain tonight, which will be followed by more heavy rain from Nicole (or Nicole's remains) Thursday morning. By the time the rains from Nicole finally clear the area Thursday afternoon, an extra 5 - 10 inches will have fallen, and Wilmington will be looking at a 4-day rainfall total of 20 - 25 inches, the highest in recorded history there. Severe and damaging flooding is likely today and tomorrow from the record rains. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Saturday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of eight inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is generating a modest amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has some dry air to the northwest of it that is interfering with development. None of the models develop this disturbance, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. The wave is headed into a region of higher wind shear, and is not likely to develop.

Another tropical wave located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands is more of a threat. This wave is currently moving west at 15 - 20 mph, and is generating a large area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is 10 - 20 knots over the wave, and shear is forecast to decline by late this week. The latest 2am EDT runs of the NOGAPS and GFS models show some slow development of the wave late this week, and the storm is forecast to pass near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday or Monday. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday.

Disturbed weather will continue in the Western Caribbean for at least the next ten days, and the NOGAPS and GFS models continue to predict that the region could spawn a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now. However, the models are being less aggressive about such a development than in yesterday's runs, and the models have not been consistent about the timing or location of such a storm.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


321
NOUS42 KILM 300510
PNSILM
NCZ096-097-099>101-301200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
110 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..RECENT WILMINGTON RAINFALL SETS RECORDS

..HIGHEST 3-DAY RAINFALL IN WILMINGTON HISTORY BACK TO 1871

..SECOND WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD

EXTRAORDINARY RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. HERE IS HOW WILMINGTON`S RECENT RAINFALL FITS INTO THE
HISTORIC CLIMATE RECORD.

OBSERVED TOTALS...
SUNDAY SEP 26 0.59 INCHES
MONDAY SEP 27 10.33 INCHES
TUESDAY SEP 28 1.96 INCHES
WEDNESDAY SEP 29 7.37 INCHES

1-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS...
#1 13.38 INCHES 9/15/1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2 10.33 INCHES 9/27/2010 (MONDAY'S EVENT)
#3 9.56 INCHES 8/31/2006 (TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO)
#4 9.52 INCHES 9/29/1938
#5 8.04 INCHES 8/18/1879 ("GREAT BEAUFORT HURRICANE")

2-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS...
#1 17.71 INCHES 9/15 & 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2 14.73 INCHES 9/14 & 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#3 12.29 INCHES 9/27 & 9/28 2010 (MONDAY/TUESDAY'S EVENT)
#4 11.87 INCHES 10/7 & 10/8 2005 (TROPICAL STORM TAMMY)
#5 11.54 INCHES 7/7 & 7/8 1950

3-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS...
#1 19.66 INCHES 9/27 - 9/29 2010 (ONGOING EVENT)
#2 19.06 INCHES 9/14 - 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#3 17.71 INCHES 9/15 - 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#4 14.73 INCHES 9/13 - 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#5 13.44 INCHES 9/11 - 9/13 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)

4-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS...
#1 20.25 INCHES 9/26 - 9/29 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 1259 AM...)
#2 19.06 INCHES 9/14 - 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2 19.06 INCHES 9/13 - 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#4 17.71 INCHES 9/15 - 9/18 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#5 14.73 INCHES 9/12 - 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)

5-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS...
#1 20.25 INCHES 9/26 - 9/29 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 1259 AM...)
#2 19.06 INCHES 9/14 - 9/18 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2 19.06 INCHES 9/13 - 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2 19.06 INCHES 9/12 - 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#5 17.71 INCHES 9/15 - 9/19 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)

SEPTEMBER MONTHLY RAINFALL RECORDS...
#1 23.41 INCHES 1999 (HURRICANES DENNIS & FLOYD)
#2 20.43 INCHES 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 1259 AM...)
#3 20.10 INCHES 1877 ("HURRICANE FOUR")
#4 18.94 INCHES 1984 (HURRICANE DIANA)
#5 16.93 INCHES 1924 ("HURRICANE FIVE" AND "TROP STORM EIGHT")

TRA/JDW

1005. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:


That looks bad for the NE Caribbean :S
at #952. Bahamagal

Great post. My sister/b-i-l could have written that. They were cops in Grand Cayman during Ivan. Their house was of block & concrete, even interior walls. No matter, Ivan broke in. I don't think they slept for 3 months. She's the most fearless person I've known, but Ivan very nearly broke her in those godawful 18 hours.

This current event is no joke. Good luck to all in it's path. I'm in it too.
1007. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:

Two hours older than this one.
Quoting Bahamagal:
Grand Bahama here...I think this is my first post ever so please take it easy on me. Been lurking here for years and appreciate all the good info. Just because what was Nicole is no longer tropical or threatening Florida does not mean she is not impacting someone else. TWC and Florida news are completely ignoring any Bahamas threat. We feel for our Caribbean neighbors especially Jamaica and Cuba. We are only getting a lot of rain and expecting a great deal more through the night.

I think we will be fine but we will never forget Wilma, which exited the Florida east coast with the proclamation that it was exiting Florida and heading out into the Atlantic. All those TV and radio weather people (including local ones) forgot there was a small island in her path and it was not even widely known for days what devastation she caused on our island in terms of storm surge. I was listening to the local radio and hearing the pleas of people (some who I knew) on our SW coast who had no warning and were trapped in the crawl spaces of their homes due to a 10-15 foot storm surge. Wilma hit us during daylight; one life was lost, a small child...if it had been night, many more lives would surely have been lost. No one was prepared for that surge, and there were no warnings or evacuation orders issued.

I know what a serious hurricane is, having spent over 36 hours in Frances, in West End, Grand Bahama including 12 hours in the eye in 2004. I questioned my sanity especially during the terrifying backside of that storm. Three weeks later, when Jeanne did that crazy loop de loop, I was so worn out from no power, no water, no phone and forget about cable...I made sure I had food for my dogs, water for us all, and that was it. No energy left to be scared, we were so worn down. I watched the ocean in my yard and as we were moving all the furniture in the lower level of the house, thankfully it receded just before it entered the house. It was an amazing and sobering sight to see whitecaps in our back yard.

All told we had no power for eight weeks. No water for five weeks. Cable and phone took 10-12 weeks. You have not survived a hurricane until you have to bathe in the sea, and take a precious gallon of fresh water to rinse the salt off. Or bathe night after night in an inch of tepid water in your tub, forget about washing your hair. Or have to dip 5 gallon buckets of salt water from the canal to flush the toilet. Several times a day. Or try to wash your clothes in an Igloo cooler by hand with none of the tools necessary. I literally cried the first time I tried that. After the first ten days a friend in Florida shipped us over a 5KW generator and I cried again. None to be had here. Finally we could have a little light and run our fridge and a fan. The microwave for heating up food. We were so happy for those small things! Looking back, I don't know how we made it through those long months but we did and were so grateful for things we normally take for granted. I remember driving home from Freeport to West End one evening and seeing a major caravan of power trucks from Jamaica and S. Carolina leaving the harbour ...me and dozens of other drivers pulled over, blew our horns and expressed our thanks best we could to these folks come to help us. That was the coolest sight ever!

Never want to go through that again. Anyone who thinks a hurricane is exciting in any way must never have been terrified during one nor suffered through the aftermath.

Everything is relative. People impacted by Katrina or Andrew could tell even worse stories than mine, by far. I'm still here having learned some hellacious lessons in 2004-2005.

I live on an island. Evacuation is simply not an option for the majority of residents, including those of us whose jobs require us to be here. We simply have to stay put and stay as safe as we can.

Hoping for no more tropical storms or hurricanes to impact anyone the rest of this season.

Thanks again for all the great info over the years.









Your post made my heart want to reach out to you!

This is exactly what happened here, in North Carolina, after Fran and then again after Floyd. I live out in the country so I understood why they had to get the power on in the cities, but carrying water day after day for a month, just... was depressing.

I had to use rain water off my roof to wash my clothes and then I used the soapy water to flush the toilet. One place within twenty miles of me had drinkable water so I would take my jugs every day to get water for the kids and dogs.

And don't forget the heat after a topical system! The heat during the day and then the bugs at night.

So far I've lucked out with this system and I've only gotten 4.8 inches of rain. My area can handle around 9 inches and then we start flooding.

The power is still on but I fully expect it to go out because of trees falling over the lines.

Oh, and if anyone is new to NC and this is your first storm--wear boots when walking outside! Do not pick up any crooked sticks. Also, if you have water in you yard use a flash light to look under your sinks where the pipes come into the house.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 300534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NICOLE...LOCATED
ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT BAHAMAS...IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...AND WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER RAIN
SQUALLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALSO
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting traumaboyy:


Good morning!!

Hope it clears out and you guys have a great time!!


Thanks Trauma! All of the forecasts I can find show pleasant weather... If it holds through tomorrow morning's NWS re-evaluation of the conditions, we should be set for an awesome trip!

Good luck to all those in Jamaica, Central Cuba and North/South Carolina where the rain was seen earlier making a deposit for an apartment... I guess it's staying for a while.
Thanks, something wrong with my link....
Anyhow, too bad, cause it looks stronger...
and looks like we're going to be affected at least by lot of rain......

Quoting JLPR2:

Two hours older than this one.
1012. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Thanks, something wrong with my link....
Anyhow, too bad, cause it looks stronger...
and looks like we're going to be affected at least by lot of rain......



Rains seems like a sure bet.
Found out what's wrong.... the global sat image is 2 hrs behind the Carib. one.....

Quoting JLPR2:

Two hours older than this one.
Not good to be here during storm winds


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1015. xcool
hmm
in the past 2-3 sat scans the convection is exploding northward in the track from ft. lauderdale. the low appears to be stationary off the fla coast for several hours. it's all heading north and is going to be squeezed like a sponge over the states and will probably bring mass voracity to virginia and the carolinas'.
1017. Bayside
Woke up for the 1am tonado warning in SE VA. Lots of rain coming down for quite a while. With two boats tied up behind the house I hate storms with winds. Bet im the only one in the neighborhood up because of the warning, but guarantee I'm the only one looking like a dork with my headflashlight on or near me just in case. But I have kids that I love!
1018. vis0
1 reminder for NE residents, 1 Questions for Dr. Jeff Masters

1- Clean your gutters In the NE as trees still have so many leaves sustained, not just gust above tropical force winds will blow many leaves, clean off.

2- Has there ever been storm with its TS status recalled. State this as in my book, 2 TS in 2010 where very suspect as to being tropical storms and wonder if their is a time limit for demoting their status.

State this as since the 1970s i've enjoyed keeping up with the Tropical Season predictions and stats. Yet notice certain years the requirements for TS status though not changed on paper is changed to fit the OFFICIAL predictions. Example, 2 years in the 1990s, 8 or less TS OFFICIALLY predicted, so when a few TDs seemed to become TS they where NOT called TS as the TS count would then go over 8 or higher. i know of 2 TD would've been given TS status 'cause an uncle (military guy very trustable & scientifically worthy) that worked on ships in the Atlantic measured sustained winds above 50, NOT 39 but 50 with TS characteristics, yet both times, OFFICIAL records stated they weren't TS and wouldn't accept ship reports though his reports have been accepted before & after. This year i say 2, others say as much as 4 so called TS seemed not to reach true TS status. I think since the OFFICIAL predictions of 22-26 (even 28) TS** is influencing that certain border line TD be categorized as TS.



**(BTW stated that a bit over half the official predictions or 12-16 TS. This is due to the false reading created by "ml-ds" i had set up in Puerto Rico, explanation of what i call an "ml-d" on my "vis0" blog) Therefore i'm not affected by the count ...so far.
When in NYC ml-d AOI
Quoting TropicalInstigation:
Good evening/morning, all! Well, unfortunately speaking here, TS Nicole ended up being yet another carbon copy of what TS Bonnie was down here, a couple of months ago. Screw my horrific luck in this regard. We need a serious storm to hit SF. I'm still holding onto hope, ^_^. If not, the season will end and SF will be spared for yet another year, -______-.


Um.. Your comment is borderline insane. Have you ever actually experienced a hurricane. I have, Andrew, Katrina, Wilma, Frances, Irene. I am VERY thankful we have been spared. We are in very rough economic times and your hoping for devestation ? Death ? What is wrong with you.
1021. flsky
Quoting Bayside:
Woke up for the 1am tonado warning in SE VA. Lots of rain coming down for quite a while. With two boats tied up behind the house I hate storms with winds. Bet im the only one in the neighborhood up because of the warning, but guarantee I'm the only one looking like a dork with my headflashlight on or near me just in case. But I have kids that I love!

It pays to be a dork sometimes!
1023. JLPR2
EURO develops the CATL disturbance at 72hrs


And it slams into PR at 96hrs


And then into DR at 120hrs


ECMWF is being bad with the islands... :S
1024. JLPR2
Interesting our two disturbances are linking up.

Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-ft.html
Link




newest frame now shows the powerful high cloud stacks coming ashore....hold on folks in the carolinas' the ride is now gonna get bumpy....

notice 5:45 utc to 22:15 utc shows the low pressure appears to be completely stationary by ft. lauderdale/miami. it appears to slightly slide east but does not appear to move significantly north.
Quoting JLPR2:
Interesting our two disturbances are linking up.



WE ALL DOOM!!
Gusts to 64 mph in Georgetown, SC: 1:55 AM 73.4 °F 73.4 °F 100% 29.33 in 2.5 miles SE 36.8 mph 64.4 mph 0.08 in Rain Rain METAR KGGE 300555Z AUTO 14032G56KT 2 1/2SM RA 23/23 A2933 RMK AO2 VIS 1 1/2V3 P0008

Cape lookout NC had a gust of 47kts
TORNADO WARNING
NCC013-095-187-300700-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0007.100930T0635Z-100930T0700Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTERN BEAUFORT COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWESTERN HYDE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 300 AM EDT

* AT 233 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER PUNGO LAKE...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PLYMOUTH...
MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTER OF PHELPS LAKE...
ROPER...SCUPPERNONG...
PLEASANT GROVE...MACKEYS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
""
""
1032. BreadandCircuses

Well ... I had Vladimir Putin over to the house for Sunday dinner last week !
dvorak floater loop (td16)

Link
1035. JLPR2
An eye! XD LOL!


Well, I'm out, night/morning all!
000
WGUS52 KILM 300754
FFWILM
NCC017-019-047-129-141-301200-
/O.EXT.KILM.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-100930T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
PENDER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN BLADEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 800 AM EDT

* AT 350 AM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED NUMEROUS
ROAD CLOSURES THROUGHOUT THE WARNED AREA DUE TO HIGH WATER...AS
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MALPASS
CORNER...TOPSAIL BEACH...WARDS CORNER...COUNCIL...SCOTTS
HILL...WILLARD...ROCKY POINT...PENDERLEA...MAPLE HILL...
HAMPSTEAD...RIEGELWOOD...DELCO...CASTLE HAYNE... BURGAW...
ELIZABETHTOWN AND LAKE WACCAMAW

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 20 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY 6
AM...PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3442 7760 3442 7755 3420 7781 3384 7797
3387 7802 3391 7794 3406 7790 3419 7796
3389 7802 3392 7824 3388 7845 3485 7867
3483 7846 3457 7826 3473 7811 3473 7769
3443 7752

$$

RAS



be careful in va/md big disturbance heading your way

000
WFUS51 KLWX 300757
TORLWX
MDC003-009-037-300830-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0020.100930T0757Z-100930T0830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...
CALVERT COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
EASTERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 430 AM EDT

* AT 355 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...MOVING NORTH
AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLLYWOOD...
CHESAPEAKE BEACH...
NORTH BEACH...
SHADY SIDE...
SHERIDAN POINT...
PRINCE FREDERICK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 7638 3815 7648 3817 7653 3822 7659
3870 7668 3885 7666 3884 7648 3875 7652
3866 7652 3862 7650 3853 7650 3848 7648
3840 7639 3832 7640 3832 7638
TIME...MOT...LOC 0757Z 175DEG 30KT 3862 7656 3852 7657
3829 7653

$$

GMS


1032. BreadandCircuses

Well ... I had Vladimir Putin over to the house for Sunday dinner last week !


Putin gives a great foot massage I hear...lol
Link

24 hr loop over eastern u.s.

so here it is to copy and paste

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_east_common /24h/


sorry link would not work when i pasted it
1042. flsky
Quoting robert88:
""

This is very sad. I don't know how to "quote" this w/o the whole thing showing again. Sorry.
Quoting mara0921:


Um.. Your comment is borderline insane. Have you ever actually experienced a hurricane. I have, Andrew, Katrina, Wilma, Frances, Irene. I am VERY thankful we have been spared. We are in very rough economic times and your hoping for devestation ? Death ? What is wrong with you.


Don't feed the trolls. That's JFV.
BTW, we have Invest 97L.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't feed the trolls. That's JFV.


Hey Kori....we are doing Coast to Coast AM here on the weather Blog.....how are you??
Link

floater re-assigned to nicole (al 16)

she has hardly moved over the past 12 hours

Link

eastern u.s. overview from noaa
Good morning night shift. I've been totally out of touch for 36 hours. No internet, no TV and a houseful of cable guys.

Oh, and no rain on my west central Florida home. Guess I'm in a dry slot, so where's the beef with this system?
Quoting sunlinepr:

My model says:
Plonto velan OTTO hulacan....
OTTO hulacan....


Wow...50's era ethnic stereotyping "humor" on WU. How quaint!
Whoa. Look at that trof and the ridge building in behind it. I'm amazed!

Where is this crazy ass trough gonna be in 6-7 days? I'm liking it, but I worry it'll retreat north and leave SW Florida holding the bag.
1051. IKE
Florida panhandle extended....

THE SILVER LINING OF THIS FORECAST IS THAT DESPITE THE VERY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...THE OVERALL IMPACT FOR OUR WEATHER IS NOT
SIGNIFICANT. STILL GOING WITH A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD. DESPITE THE
NEARBY UPPER LOW...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL SIMPLY BE TOO
DRY...AND THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR REGION.
THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE GRIDS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECASTS WILL BE THE DEGREE TO
WHICH OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. EITHER WAY...WE ARE
LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE
VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED DURING MUCH OF SEPTEMBER.
AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH NORMALLY COLDER INLAND SPOTS REACHING
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S!!!. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE...EVEN THE
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE COOL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. 850MB TEMPS FORECAST
BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM TO DROP BELOW 10C...WHICH EVEN WITH GOOD
DIURNAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 80.
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. GUESS
SUMMER HAD TO END SOMETIME.
..............................................

My forecast.....

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 79.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 76.
Quoting KoritheMan:
BTW, we have Invest 97L.


My forecast.....

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 79.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 76.


Niiice, Ike. I'll be in the low 60s Sunday and Monday. I'll take it.
Quoting weatherwart:
My forecast.....

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Monday: Sunny, with a high near 79.
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 76.


Niiice, Ike. I'll be in the low 60s Sunday and Monday. I'll take it.


I won't. I hate the cold. :(

I don't like summer either, but...
Good morning my weather geek friends,

With coffee in hand and getting ready to head out the door for work, I had to come take a peek in here.

Well, here in Broward County we are expecting a high temp of 90 this afternoon and only 20% chance of rain, which is what we have all the time. So none of that cool air is coming down this far; it never does this time of year.


I see we have another invest....another low pressure to watch and of course the models will all show it crashing into someplace in the next 7 - 10 days!


Will check in later from work.

Enjoy your Thursday.

Quoting traumaboyy:


Hey Kori....we are doing Coast to Coast AM here on the weather Blog.....how are you??


I'm fine, thanks! Sorry about the delayed response. Was busy.

I trust you are fine as well?
Quoting vis0:
Has there ever been storm with its TS status recalled. State this as in my book, 2 TS in 2010 where very suspect as to being tropical storms and wonder if their is a time limit for demoting their status.

State this as since the 1970s i've enjoyed keeping up with the Tropical Season predictions and stats. Yet notice certain years the requirements for TS status though not changed on paper is changed to fit the OFFICIAL predictions. Example, 2 years in the 1990s, 8 or less TS OFFICIALLY predicted, so when a few TDs seemed to become TS they where NOT called TS as the TS count would then go over 8 or higher. i know of 2 TD would've been given TS status 'cause an uncle (military guy very trustable & scientifically worthy) that worked on ships in the Atlantic measured sustained winds above 50, NOT 39 but 50 with TS characteristics, yet both times, OFFICIAL records stated they weren't TS and wouldn't accept ship reports though his reports have been accepted before & after. This year i say 2, others say as much as 4 so called TS seemed not to reach true TS status. I think since the OFFICIAL predictions of 22-26 (even 28) TS** is influencing that certain border line TD be categorized as TS.


I suppose this can be looked at in one of two ways:

#1 (aka "Government Conspiracy Theory"): The NOAA, not wanting to be left with egg on their faces, intentionally classifies a few tropical depressions as tropical storms to artificially inflate the storm count so it better matches their preseason predictions.

#2 (aka "What Is Most Likely Happening"): Preseason predictions of an active season were made, and the season is actually turning out to be as active as what was predicted.

IOW, when a forecast predicts rain for a given area at a given time, it's not a conspiracy when that rain appears. It's just weather, period.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I won't. I hate the cold. :(

I don't like summer either, but...


So... spring and fall? lol

I love the cold. I'm so glad to see October and the first cold front. That and Stone Crab season and I'm a happy camper!
Good morning, everyone.

I was just reading back, some of those posts should be re-posted when we have people wishing for a hurricane. Or take up a collection and send them into the aftermath to live through it themselves.

I hope for the best for those along the east coast with the flooding and tornados, and those who could be hit by the next event.
Looking at the models there is really no threats for the next 10 plus days to the US. This trough has pretty much cleared out everything even the Antilles wave moves north and recurves. Others have said October will be busy but right now it does not per long range IMO
Quoting weatherwart:


So... spring and fall? lol

I love the cold. I'm so glad to see October and the first cold front. That and Stone Crab season and I'm a happy camper!


I like when it's around 75F during the daytime -- not too hot, not too cold.

Anything below 65F, and I start freezing.
Quoting portcharlotte:
Looking at the models there is really no threats for the next 10 plus days to the US. This trough has pretty much cleared out everything even the Antilles wave moves north and recurves. Others have said October will be busy but right now it does not per long range IMO


That works for me. We've been very blessed over on this side of the Gulf.
1063. IKE
Airport in Miami,Fl. for yesterday....Precipitation:
Precipitation 5.07 in



Airport in Tampa,Fl. for yesterday....Precipitation:
Precipitation 0.00 in



Airport in Orlando,Fl. for yesterday....Precipitation:
Precipitation 0.00 in



Airport in JAX,Fl. for yesterday....Precipitation:
Precipitation 0.49 in
Quoting IKE:
My forecast.....

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 79.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 76.


And mine:
Sunday night: Partly cloudy, with a low in the upper 60s
Monday: Party cloudy, high in the lower 90s
Monday night: Partly cloudy, low in the upper 60s
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, high in the low 90s
IOW: right where we should be. Aaah...

BTW, have you guys seen the radar estimated storm total accumulation out of Wilmington? The max rainfall as of this moment is 45 inches. I'll just say: wow...
Quoting Neapolitan:


And mine:
Sunday night: Partly cloudy, with a low in the upper 60s
Monday: Party cloudy, high in the lower 90s
Monday night: Partly cloudy, low in the upper 60s
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, high in the low 90s
IOW: right where we should be. Aaah...

BTW, have you guys seen the radar estimated storm total accumulation out of Wilmington? The max rainfall as of this moment is 45 inches. I'll just say: wow...


That will mean some major flooding. : (
Quoting dukeuncluver:


Oh, and if anyone is new to NC and this is your first storm--wear boots when walking outside! Do not pick up any crooked sticks. Also, if you have water in you yard use a flash light to look under your sinks where the pipes come into the house.


Excellent advice, especially if you're unable to distinguish between venomous and nonvenomous snakes--like me!

We went through Fran too, but in Durham--scary and uncomfortable but only for about a week. What I want to pass on to those inexperienced in disasters is that if you don't have sufficient water, food and so on for about a week, you're going to leave yourself open for trouble. I worked as a news stringer when Fran hit, reporting on crime, and I had all three of my police scanners going at once to get the news. Reports, which I confirmed with contacts at Durham PD, were of fights and mini-riots breaking out, for example, at Home Depot when two days after Fran a shipment of 20 generators arrived. There were countless reports of shoppers having their purchases stolen as they left grocery and hardware stores--and as they left a parking lot where a Good Samaritan (bless his heart!) had set up with a big truck full of free ice. You didn't hear such reports by the media because they didn't want to encourage copycat crimes.

Hearing on the police scanner that a shipment of ice had just arrived at our nearby Kroger, my friend and I hurried over there. I would have been assaulted had it not been for the Kroger manager when I happened to be lucky enough to get the last bag of ice, again only two days after the storm. (And the woman next in line, with anger all over, her was very nicely dressed, made-up and coiffed, not like the rest of us in shorts and T-shirts--you would never have guessed that she was ready to pop me one and steal my ice!)

The reason cities get power first is not just because more people can be connecteds at one time but also because power needs to go on FAST in high-crime areas--light to discourage thieves and power for alarms. I could hear on the scanner high-crime areas being powered up (because hundreds of burglar alarms were auto-dialing the police) long before we had power. By the way, when you DO see power crews out there, please take them something--water, candy, cake, sandwiches, whatever you can spare. They work such long hours and, in my experience, get a big kick out of turning the power back for people who are pretty depressed by that time and they treasure every bit of appreciation shown to them.

Moral of this story: As Patrap (I think it was) said, be as well prepared as you can be for ANY disaster. Do not go outside your immediate neighborhood to gawk at damage. Law enforcement is totally overwhelmed and the National Guard almost always takes about three days to arrive and get things under control. Also, it takes a few days for homeowners to get over their damage and loss and they stay angry and upset for a while; they don't want you gawking at the tree that took out most of their home.

Oh, and the first thing Charleston's mayor, Joe Riley (who saw the city through Hugo) tells people when a storm threatens is that the government won't be able to help you for several days, you have to take responsibility for yourself and be prepared.
1067. Keys99
FXUS62 KKEY 301000
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
600 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

NICOLE LEFT HER MARK ON THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES STORM TOTALS OF 6-9 INCHES
ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR NORTH KEY LARGO IN
EXCESS OF 12 INCHES. FRESHWATER FLOODING RESULTED NEAR
ISLAMORADA...WHERE 3 TO 4 FEET OF WATER ENTERED HOMES ON THE BAY
SIDE OF LOWER MATECUMBE KEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACROSS THE
MIDDLE KEYS...STORM TOTALS RANGED FROM TWO INCHES NEAR THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO OVER SIX INCHES AT DUCK KEY.
Oh, and the first thing Charleston's mayor, Joe Riley (who saw the city through Hugo) tells people when a storm threatens is that the government won't be able to help you for several days, you have to take responsibility for yourself and be prepared.

If people learned nothing else from Katrina, I hope they learned this.
Agreed.....all the predictions of multiple hits and a major and quite frankly all we have had is Mexico and Re-curves...We have been truly lucky here in the Gulf although October is typically the most dangerous month for SW Florida.

Does anyone remember the relentless predictions of pattern change by stormw and all the other fearless predictions?

Quoting aislinnpaps:


That works for me. We've been very blessed over on this side of the Gulf.
Quoting portcharlotte:
Agreed.....all the predictions of multiple hits and a major and quite frankly all we have had is Mexico and Re-curves...We have been truly lucky here in the Gulf although October is typically the most dangerous month for SW Florida.

Does anyone remember the relentless predictions of pattern change by stormw and all the other fearless predictions?



If weather were an exact science, it wouldn't be worth following.
I can only say this about that. I just took a walk, I have never in my life seen anything before late October like this cool front. It is for a lack of a better vocabulary, to be able describe how pleasant it is here in ne Dade county.There is one thing for certain" and I hardly ever use that word,there is climate change for good or bad I'll leave it to the experts.Everyone have a nice day sincerely.
I know and that's what makes it worthwhile....
I guess the amazing part is how so many make such bold predictions and forget that nature will do it's own thing...


Quoting KoritheMan:


If weather were an exact science, it wouldn't be worth following.
1073. surfmom
MORNING - BEEN UP SINCE 4:30...OOOPS -need to use my inside voice...
Getting ready to meet Nicole - her waves are finally reaching the SWFL/SRQ shore - puny in the AM building through the day - been a drought of waves on the gomex so we're all looking to quench the thirst....
Excellent Surfcast by WU blogger:
surfswells100's Blog:
"As for the surf conditions,it looks like we will get some really fun south swell,when the wind goes offshore late afternoon and early evening!This will be the rare type that comes up from Cuba with a hard south tilt to it.It will likely be real fun,long rights with some little shacks mixed in,at about waist-shoulder high.Also,as Nicole moves to our north and gets absorbed,the system will likely kick back a large northeast swell for late weekend/next week,though probably blown to pieces by strong northeast winds,you could find a fun corner someplace"
Quoting KoritheMan:


I like when it's around 75F during the daytime -- not too hot, not too cold.

Anything below 65F, and I start freezing.


Sounds like my temperature range. And I'm dipping into the dusty recesses again. Among the cobwebs I find:

The gardener's cat's named Mignonette.
She hates the cold, she hates the wet.
She sits among the hothouse flowers for hours and hours and hours and hours


I can't remember any more, it was 50-something years ago when it went into my memory.

Hilaire Beloc was the poet, couldn't find anything about the poem online and no more time to search. Hope it conjures a smile to start your day.
1075. IKE
Quoting portcharlotte:
Agreed.....all the predictions of multiple hits and a major and quite frankly all we have had is Mexico and Re-curves...We have been truly lucky here in the Gulf although October is typically the most dangerous month for SW Florida.

Does anyone remember the relentless predictions of pattern change by stormw and all the other fearless predictions?



Which in turn led to all of the problems he had on here.

The pattern change that did happen is fall along the northern gulf coast.
Good morning, Surfmom.
You have fun out there, but be careful! Wish I had that to look forward to today. I get to begin working with a young lady who, if she doesn't get her way, kicks, hits, throws things, spits and bites. Oh joy. Another one...
Oh I forgot surfmom keep on rocking in America.
Good point Ike!

I mentioned once that sure the pattern change will come right around xmas....StormW had a number of issues...I read some emails posted here from him to our lady bloggers...he was somewhat out of line.....


Quoting IKE:


Which in turn led to all of the problems he had on here.

The pattern change that did happen is fall along the northern gulf coast.
Him and a few others need to give Joe B's website a rest.
Weather forecast for my classroom:

Stormy with sporatic outbursts of tornados. Occasional sun peeking through with intermittant cloudiness.
He has gone ballistic regarding NHC and Nicole


Quoting gordydunnot:
Him and a few others need to give Joe B's website a rest.
1082. WxLogic
Good Morning...
1084. MahFL
Quoting traumaboyy:

1032. BreadandCircuses

Well ... I had Vladimir Putin over to the house for Sunday dinner last week !



Putin gives a great foot massage I hear...lol


If he does not, who in thier right mind would complain ?
1085. IKE
Quoting portcharlotte:
He has gone ballistic regarding NHC and Nicole




What did he say about it?
1086. surfmom
1057. Neapolitan : )
my non-science view

The way I look at it - the EARTH is a living organism - (w/ alot female attributes) - how can any one 100% correctly predict the actions of a "living being"? Throw in Random Chaos & well, makes for an interesting world..that's why to me, weather is not just a science but an art.... some folks have that gift & connection-- "to just have a feeling" and sense what's going to be.

probably make the science folks groan reading this & I apologize.....
You'll want to see something very interesting look visible at top of NHC website I'm gone to try and post it. It's a funny shot for sure but looks like the storm of the century.
THE PATTERN CHANGE...The.B/H was going to steer all the CV storms west into Florida and the Gulf...only Bonnie got close to that.....

I think StormW is mentioning a pattern change on another blog for later this year
winds peaking over 50 mph coming ashore in the carolinas' and it will go downhill from here.

regardless of the naming of this system (or lack thereof) this is packing ts winds and has yet to finally come ashore with its' strongest "core" (but,what core?...lol).
Somebody please post the NHC visible at top of satellite page. Thanks your going to like it I guarantee it.
1094. surfmom
1066. OctaviaStreet
EXCELLENT, EXCELLENT POST!!
like the way you write & think

Morning Aslinn - getting ready to head out any minute..waiting for my buddy to show... we're kinda glad the kids have school -- the old folks will have Nicole's swell to ourselves.
1095. surfmom
Quoting gordydunnot:
Somebody please post the NHC visible at top of satellite page. Thanks your going to like it I guarantee it.

Bawahahahaa - maybe that's a nervous laugh - but your line cracked me up....
Quoting gordydunnot:
Somebody please post the NHC visible at top of satellite page. Thanks your going to like it I guarantee it.


Link


i'll do you one better, the index page of all floaters and satellite views.
1097. surfmom
WORTH THE SCROLL BACK
post 592 - Bahamagal

thank YOU
people need to know the truth
though some need to have their fantasy meet w/reality
b/4 they really understand
Hey surfmom,I love your avatar never surfed though, must be Charley. Seriously go to the nhc look at Atlantic visible it's worth saving.
Quoting portcharlotte:
THE PATTERN CHANGE...The.B/H was going to steer all the CV storms west into Florida and the Gulf...only Bonnie got close to that.....



Looking at the water vapor loop I am wondering if the GOM is shut down for the year. We typically see this type of setup later in October - not September. Any future storms could get stuck in the Caribbean or North of the Greater Antilles.
1100. surfmom
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Weather forecast for my classroom:

Stormy with sporatic outbursts of tornados. Occasional sun peeking through with intermittant cloudiness.
Hang IN
Teachers & Farmers -- the REAL HEROS

Gordy - checking on it now .....thanks for your words
if I'm not back .... I heading for the 86 degree water
1097 that reminds me of it's a rainy night in Georgia.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
winds peaking over 50 mph coming ashore in the carolinas' and it will go downhill from here.

regardless of the naming of this system (or lack thereof) this is packing ts winds and has yet to finally come ashore with its' strongest "core" (but,what core?...lol).


Where in North or South Carolina are the "winds peaking over 50 mph"? Here in Charleston (SC) we have 0.0mph winds.
I just tried to go to StormW's new website and it told me this...

The Potentially Damaging Content category is restricted.(See the Options section below for more info) Sites in this category may pose a security threat to network resources or private information, and are blocked by your organization.
1104. MahFL
Quoting weatherwart:
Oh, and the first thing Charleston's mayor, Joe Riley (who saw the city through Hugo) tells people when a storm threatens is that the government won't be able to help you for several days, you have to take responsibility for yourself and be prepared.

If people learned nothing else from Katrina, I hope they learned this.


Dream on, they never learn.....
Well the satellite all ready changed a hair but it looks like Pottery needs a heads up for sure.
Quoting SaintPatrick:
I just tried to go to StormW's new website and it told me this...

The Potentially Damaging Content category is restricted.(See the Options section below for more info) Sites in this category may pose a security threat to network resources or private information, and are blocked by your organization.


I was just there? Are you going through a server or network that uses filters?
1107. cre13
I'm in Northeastern NC and the wind is howling and we're having very torrential downpours. I've seen some flooding in errors you typically see under water during a heavy thunderstorm and ditches along US Hwy 17 are at their brim. By the time this afternoon rolls around the roads probably will be under water; getting home from work might be interesting.
Quoting MahFL:


Dream on, they never learn.....


And the foolish ones like this are the first and loudest to complain, and keep complaining. Sad that the ones who prepare take it in stride and say thank you to all who try to help them.
1109. P451
Dry slotted here in NJ. Had some pretty heavy weather pass through earlier. Seems like it's Eastern PA that's getting the worst. Not sure if and when I'll get back into the mix. I will say this though it's very turbulent out there so if anyone's going to see a weak tornado out of this it would be NJ.

Quoting cre13:
I'm in Northeastern NC and the wind is howling and we're having very torrential downpours. I've seen some flooding in errors you typically see under water during a heavy thunderstorm and ditches along US Hwy 17 are at their brim. By the time this afternoon rolls around the roads probably will be under water; getting home from work might be interesting.


Stay safe. Remember the phrase, 'Turn around, don't drown.' Get a hotel room if you need and treat yourself to a nice dinner.
I give up have a nice day look at 10n 48w if you are interested in tropical weather today and not cold fronts.
Definitely want to go slow...hydroplaning isn't fun
1114. K8eCane
Sam Champion from Good Morning America is at one of our local beaches broadcasting....wow
Quoting capefearspt:
Definitely want to go slow...hydroplaning isn't fun


Especially if there's an abrupt stop or sudden plunge over and down..
i don't think i have ever seen a tornado warning as big as the one draped across the carolinas' . i realize tornado activity is possible anywhere in the wind field of a land falling hurricane....but as far as a designated non-hurricane tornado warning area i have never seen one that big.
Time to run out the door. Have a terrific Thursday everyone! See ya'll tonight.
There have been tropical storms with their status being rescinded, yes.

Mike in 1950 was the first (incidentally, while the system designated 'Mike' was found out later to be non-tropical, there was a TS12 anyway, which would have been named Mike if it was found in season.)

And with short named systems, again, refer to Landsea's article.

Part of it is due to an active season.

Part of it isn't. (and nothing to do with conspiracies...)
Morning all.

Bayside - are you hanging in there? Was up in Hampton working yesterday and the rain was torrential at times. Doing fine so far down here in VA Beach, though my personal rain gauge has 3 more inches in it than the "official one" at Norfolk International, LOL. Creek is up a tiny bit on the far side with the lower bank, but so far we've got goo drainage into the Lynnhaven - will see what happens as the tide comes up, LOL.
Well - we have good drainage, but probably GOO drainage too from all the storm drains, LOL.
Quoting IKE:


Which in turn led to all of the problems he had on here.

The pattern change that did happen is fall along the northern gulf coast.


And man was it relentless........requiring "Proof" from those that didn't believe it or those that argued after weeks that it wasnt happening. There was alot of "LMAO" quotes also directed at those that shrugged the idea.
doomsdayers dont fear. part of the 2012 gig includes giant landfalling cyclones rest up good practice time
1123. Patrap
1124. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings




Since 4:25 EST Am


TORNADO WARNING WAKEFIELD VA - KAKQ 716 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
TORNADO WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 707 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 706 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON NC - KILM 651 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 639 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 627 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
TORNADO WARNING WAKEFIELD VA - KAKQ 627 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
TORNADO WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 617 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
TORNADO WARNING WAKEFIELD VA - KAKQ 547 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 545 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAKEFIELD VA - KAKQ 525 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
TORNADO WARNING WAKEFIELD VA - KAKQ 524 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
TORNADO WARNING WAKEFIELD VA - KAKQ 518 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 513 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
TORNADO WARNING WAKEFIELD VA - KAKQ 513 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
TORNADO WARNING WAKEFIELD VA - KAKQ 459 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 457 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 457 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
TORNADO WARNING WAKEFIELD VA - KAKQ 443 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
FLASH FLOOD WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 429 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
TORNADO WARNING WAKEFIELD VA - KAKQ 425 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

1125. Patrap
Beaufort, North Carolina (Airport)
Updated: 7:37 AM EDT on September 30, 2010
Rain
79 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 17 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 38 mph
Pressure: 29.58 in (Steady)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301143
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL
WAVES...IS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ARE CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Off to work. I knew I should have taken up the dealer on the pontoon/outboard option on my pickup.....
1129. DDR
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well the satellite all ready changed a hair but it looks like Pottery needs a heads up for sure.

hi gordy,we're watching it so dont worry,it shouldnt be much more than a rain maker here.
1130. mnborn
Quoting SaintPatrick:
I just tried to go to StormW's new website and it told me this...

The Potentially Damaging Content category is restricted.(See the Options section below for more info) Sites in this category may pose a security threat to network resources or private information, and are blocked by your organization.
-try stormw.com
1131. QMiami
2 areas are now one at 30%

sat morning the swamp behind my farm was bone dry, normally it is about 6 feet deep, 700 yards across, today it looks like the mississippi
1134. MahFL
That's a Tornado Watch box, not a warning. Individual warnings are issued when a thunderstorm looks like it might be producing, or is producing a tornado, based on radar and/or ground reports.
1135. DDR
Quoting QMiami:
2 areas are now one at 30%


oh,thanks for posting
I'm watching,hoping we don't get too much rain...
1136. Grothar
OK, mabye somebody can s'plain why there is an orange circle on the system closest to the Antilles, but no circle on Invest 97L? Just a computer glitch, or are they trying to do catch up????

I hope that blob that over Jamaica doesn't go set itself up over Haiti, all the nasty weather is moving East and very close to being directly over them.
1138. pottery
Quoting DDR:

hi gordy,we're watching it so dont worry,it shouldnt be much more than a rain maker here.

Good Morning all.
Yeah. Watching as it very slooowwwly approaches.
If it can get a little North in the next 24 hrs, this hot dry weather will continue.
If it comes overhead, it will probably be named Orca (not Otto), and be really Dread!

Have to go out and dig some holes in the garden. The Higher Authority is waiting on my Braun....
Quoting SaintPatrick:
I just tried to go to StormW's new website and it told me this...

The Potentially Damaging Content category is restricted.(See the Options section below for more info) Sites in this category may pose a security threat to network resources or private information, and are blocked by your organization.
LinkGood morning and here is the link. Works ok for me.
1140. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Good Morning all.
Yeah. Watching as it very slooowwwly approaches.
If it can get a little North in the next 24 hrs, this hot dry weather will continue.
If it comes overhead, it will probably be named Orca (not Otto), and be really Dread!

Have to go out and dig some holes in the garden. The Higher Authority is waiting on my Braun....


It ain't easy being green, eh pot? LOL
1141. WxLogic
AL, 97, 2010093006, , BEST, 0, 131N, 432W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S
1142. Gearsts
Quoting Grothar:
OK, mabye somebody can s'plain why there is an orange circle on the system closest to the Antilles, but no circle on Invest 97L? Just a computer glitch, or are they trying to do catch up????

Thats 97L they are merging
1143. breald
Morning everyone. It looks like a pretty mess day ahead for North Carolina. Stay safe down there.
1144. Grothar
97L, and I thought it was going to be a dull week.

1145. breald
Quoting Grothar:
97L, and I thought it was going to be a dull week.



Yeah that looks pretty nasty.
1147. Grothar
Quoting Gearsts:
Thats 97L they are merging


Thanks, I thought it was odd. I hate being confused so early in the morning.

Hey, anyone from South East Florida see that strange sunset when everything turned orange. Wasn't on last night, so don't know if anyone mentioned it. It was really some sight.
1148. breald
Quoting MahFL:
I see StormW is calling himself a Meteorologist, don't you need a degree to do that ?


?? Where do you see that?
Charleston rainfall totals

1150. Grothar
Quoting breald:


?? Where do you see that?


On his site.
1151. Grothar
Quoting breald:


Yeah that looks pretty nasty.


Yea, it does. Think we should all save blog time and get the questions out of the way now?

1. Think it will stay west
2. Think it will pump the ridge?
3. Think it will be named on the 11 AM
4. Think it will be subtropical, extra-
tropical or tropical.
5. Think it will go through the Heberts Box?

I know I forgot a few.
Quoting portcharlotte:
Looking at the models there is really no threats for the next 10 plus days to the US. This trough has pretty much cleared out everything even the Antilles wave moves north and recurves. Others have said October will be busy but right now it does not per long range IMO
I'm onboard with you. I really don't see anything here that is going to affect the CONUS at least for a while.
Quoting Grothar:
...anyone from South East Florida see that strange sunset when everything turned orange. Wasn't on last night, so don't know if anyone mentioned it. It was really some sight.


Lots of people mentioned it, and some even had photos. I'm on the SW coast, and the sunset was amazingly beautiful. Just goes to show what the right combination of clouds, mositure, and dust can do to refracted sunlight...
Still a mere disturbance, still moving straight west:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009301208
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2010, DB, O, 2010093006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972010
AL, 97, 2010093006, , BEST, 0, 120N, 470W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 97, 2010093012, , BEST, 0, 120N, 485W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
If anybody is wondering where Mathew is well he is along the Guatemala coast moving NE toward the Caribbean and could redevelope in the western Caribbean this weekend or merger with 97L just east of the Windward Islands. Either way we could be looking at a major hurricane in the Caribbean over time and it could be a very large system that could target FL later next week.

1159. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Good Morning all.
Yeah. Watching as it very slooowwwly approaches.
If it can get a little North in the next 24 hrs, this hot dry weather will continue.
If it comes overhead, it will probably be named Orca (not Otto), and be really Dread!

Have to go out and dig some holes in the garden. The Higher Authority is waiting on my Braun....

Hi pottery
LoL to that,better hurry up and dig before it clouds over.I'm out ttyl
Quoting MahFL:
Bring it on !!!!!!...97L....to FL as a massive hurricane !!!!!!!!!


What an interesting remark to see when I have not even finished my first cup of coffee... my first thought.. what a moron... then I figured I would have another sip... its amazing how often first impression are correct :)
Quoting WxLogic:
AL, 97, 2010093006, , BEST, 0, 131N, 432W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S


Relocated

AL 97 2010093012 BEST 0 120N 485W 25 1009 DB
Quoting leelee75k:
I hope that blob that over Jamaica doesn't go set itself up over Haiti, all the nasty weather is moving East and very close to being directly over them.

The met service says that it will remain in the central Caribbean and Jamaica, not sure what that means for them.
Morning
Over 20 in. of rain and still coming down!!!!


NDBC - Station JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC Observations
Station JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC
September 30, 2010 7:48 am EDT
Location: 34.21N 77.795W
Wind Direction: S (170°)
Wind Speed: 38.1 knots
Wind Gust: 45.1 knots
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.44 in (997.0 mb)
Air Temperature: 76.5°F (24.7°C)
Water Temperature: 80.1°F (26.7°C)

Powered by Rss Feed Converter
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I think they are relocating 97L SW from previous location by a couple hundred miles.
Quoting DDR:

Hi pottery
LoL to that,better hurry up and dig before it clouds over.I'm out ttyl


I didn't do it... I still think we should skip the "O" and just call it pottery :)
Hey patrap, I hope Presslord got webbed feet.
1167. breald
Quoting Grothar:


Yea, it does. Think we should all save blog time and get the questions out of the way now?

1. Think it will stay west
2. Think it will pump the ridge?
3. Think it will be named on the 11 AM
4. Think it will be subtropical, extra-
tropical or tropical.
5. Think it will go through the Heberts Box?

I know I forgot a few.


LOL
1168. will40
Link

ocean cam NC coast
Quoting Orcasystems:


What an interesting remark to see when I have not even finished my first cup of coffee... my first thought.. what a moron... then I figured I would have another sip... its amazing how often first impression are correct :)


Actually believe it or not Brian Norcross mentioned this scenario as well this morning. Even all the Orlando mets this morning are talking about what's going on in the Caribbean this morning as it could play a factor in our forcast later next week.
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, I thought it was odd. I hate being confused so early in the morning.

Hey, anyone from South East Florida see that strange sunset when everything turned orange. Wasn't on last night, so don't know if anyone mentioned it. It was really some sight.


Sunset was pretty 'orangy' yesterday from where I am at in Port Saint Lucie. We were fascinated as we've never seen that before.
1171. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Drew that map yourself? Hey, don't know where you are exactly, but did you see that sunset last night. Eerie!
Quoting MahFL:
Bring it on !!!!!!...97L....to FL as a massive hurricane !!!!!!!!!


Could b
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Sunset was pretty 'orangy' yesterday from where I am at in Port Saint Lucie. We were fascinated as we've never seen that before.


Lots a pictures of a large rainbow off the east coast last evening as the sun was setting.
1174. NCSaint
Quoting OctaviaStreet:


Where in North or South Carolina are the "winds peaking over 50 mph"? Here in Charleston (SC) we have 0.0mph winds.


Outer Banks through the Albemarle Sound. Here in Jacksonville we're mid-to-upper 20s sustained with gusts averaging around 35. Some cells like the one that just blew through gave us gusts in the mid 40s....and it still hasn't stopped raining!
1175. Gearsts
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
And like it has happen all this year models will keep shifting west.Even more with this that doesnt have well define center;).Shear is also decreasing and convection is improving but vort hasnt.
1176. Patrap
Quoting gordydunnot:
Hey patrap, I hope Presslord got webbed feet.


He has webbed something but I cant give details..
Morning all.

Such a shame. Wilmington was so close to making it to the dry line for a few hours...Looks like that dry line is pushing back to the W now as the ULL drops further S.
According to Wilmington NEXRAD, the maximum storm total rainfall estimate as of this moment is 52.4". That's more than 4.25 feet of rain...and it's still falling at the rate of several inches per hour. Yikes...
Quoting Jeff9641:


Actually believe it or not Brian Norcross mentioned this scenario as well this morning. Even all the Orlando mets this morning are talking about what's going on in the Caribbean this morning as it could play a factor in our forcast later next week.


Oh I don't doubt for a minute that it will turn into something.... its just what he said..and how he said it that was stupid.

People have been complaining about some of the more moronic statements made in here... and that is the type of thing they are talking about.

Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, I thought it was odd. I hate being confused so early in the morning.

Hey, anyone from South East Florida see that strange sunset when everything turned orange. Wasn't on last night, so don't know if anyone mentioned it. It was really some sight.


I saw it. Pretty cool! I remember it being like that the night before Wilma.
1181. Patrap


WWUS40 KWNS 300900
WWP8

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

WT 0688
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 10%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : <05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : <05%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 50%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 0.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 18045
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU8.
1182. srada
Good Morning from Wilmington

the wind has really picked up here this morning..we lost power last night but it came back on..now we are bracing ourselves for round 2 that will last until late this evening..severe flooding here..
1183. Grothar
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Sunset was pretty 'orangy' yesterday from where I am at in Port Saint Lucie. We were fascinated as we've never seen that before.


Never even thought to take a picture. It was a sight!!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh I don't doubt for a minute that it will turn into something.... its just what he said..and how he said it that was stupid.

People have been complaining about some of the more moronic statements made in here... and that is the type of thing they are talking about.



Your right I didn't see the Bring It ON statement. Not a wise comment.
Quoting srada:
Good Morning from Wilmington

the wind has really picked up here this morning..we lost power last night but it came back on..now we are bracing ourselves for round 2 that will last until late this evening..severe flooding here..


Stay safe!
1187. Patrap
Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh I don't doubt for a minute that it will turn into something.... its just what he said..and how he said it that was stupid.

People have been complaining about some of the more moronic statements made in here... and that is the type of thing they are talking about.



I agree! There has been lot's dramma lately and I'm glad to see things are slowly getting back to normal.
1189. NCSaint
Good Morning Srada. Glad to see you on today. NexRad precip totals went white for you folks before I even went to bed last night. Lots of creek flooding up here in Jax
1190. Patrap
1191. Grothar
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


I saw it. Pretty cool! I remember it being like that the night before Wilma.


You know, I forgot that, but you're right. It was green, then yellow and orange. At first I thought it was the gin.
1192. srada
Quoting NCSaint:
Good Morning Srada. Glad to see you on today. NexRad precip totals went white for you folks before I even went to bed last night. Lots of creek flooding up here in Jax


Good Morning!! Im afraid its only going to get worse before getting better..stay safe and DRY!!
1193. breald
Ok I have a question. If the storm is going inland once it hits NC/SC why is it going to be more windy along the coast as it moves up?
Quoting Neapolitan:
According to Wilmington NEXRAD, the maximum storm total rainfall estimate as of this moment is 52.4". That's more than 4.25 feet of rain...and it's still falling at the rate of several inches per hour. Yikes...


I've got class this morning, and a few things to do this afternoon, but if we start getting reports of communities that might fit the bill of being "under-served" and flooded in eastern NC or NE SC, then please WU mail them to myself or presslord. Or better yet, just post them on the Portlight Blog.
1195. will40
Quoting breald:
Ok I have a question. If the storm is going inland once it hits NC/SC why is it going to be more windy along the coast as it moves up?



East side of it has the strongest winds.
Been lurking a lot lately. I just haven't had time to contribute and look at maps.

Even though many of the models do not have anything consistent or significant on them, and we are having a post Matthew and Nicole hangover...

There is still abundant energy in the central atlantic through the caribbean....still looks like an active couple of weeks.


Quoting Jeff9641:
If anybody is wondering where Mathew is well he is along the Guatemala coast moving NE toward the Caribbean and could redevelope in the western Caribbean this weekend or merger with 97L just east of the Windward Islands. Either way we could be looking at a major hurricane in the Caribbean over time and it could be a very large system that could target FL later next week.

1197. dmh1026
Quoting MahFL:
Bring it on !!!!!!...97L....to FL as a massive hurricane !!!!!!!!!
Maybe....maybe not so much....
97L is one hungry system. Very massive circulation developing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
1199. HCW
Quoting breald:
Ok I have a question. If the storm is going inland once it hits NC/SC why is it going to be more windy along the coast as it moves up?


Due to it being extra-tropical, the worst winds and rain are well removed from the center usually. At least I think that's the reason...Or I should say I think it's extra-tropical.
morning wu-crew....going to be starting a FL storm chase/spotter team for all us locals,setting up a team to cover all angles of the state with live reports and streams covering ALL FL weather ONLY place to find this will be none other than wunderground.com....its going to work like this i'll soon be setting a blog up for all interested in FL local wx,all will be welcome but the theme will be live reports/livestreams from locations around fl,especially when active weather threatens,links to live cams,streams and local pictures will be allowed,I'll have the fl chase blog set up soon,ALL are welcome and feel free to wumail me with any ideas or questions-pauly
1202. markot
port charlotte, what you talkin bout. season still active, wave isnt moving n models i dont think turn it out....
1203. Jax82
Good luck to anything trying to develop or trying to enter the GOM!!!!!

That will not be sticking around long, this is early October (okay, not until tomorrow), not January. Expect that to lift north in the coming days

Quoting Jax82:
Good luck to anything trying to develop or try to enter the GOM!!!!!

jeff,

what is your take on the potential path of 97L?
Looks like ex Nichole trying to get her grove on
1207. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Relocated

AL 97 2010093012 BEST 0 120N 485W 25 1009 DB


Further south and west...
Quoting StormJunkie:


I've got class this morning, and a few things to do this afternoon, but if we start getting reports of communities that might fit the bill of being "under-served" and flooded in eastern NC or NE SC, then please WU mail them to myself or presslord. Or better yet, just post them on the Portlight Blog.


well worth reposting
Quoting Patrap:


WWUS40 KWNS 300900
WWP8

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

WT 0688
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 10%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : <05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : <05%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 50%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 0.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 18045
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU8.

Pretty much a non-event for us in Charleston, but a very scary scenario for our friends to the north. To make it worse, these tornados will most likely be hidden in all the rain.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Due to it being extra-tropical, the worst winds and rain are well removed from the center usually. At least I think that's the reason...Or I should say I think it's extra-tropical.


That is what the satellite estimated winds show


About the sunset... I actually emailed Steve Weagle from WPTV in WPB and this was his reply...

"Paul,
The perfect weather conditions came together this evening for the bright yellow sky over South Florida . The Sun was setting just after 7pm tonight, so it was very low in the sky, and sunlight had to travel through more atmosphere to reach us. This scatters out the shorter wavelength blue and green colors and leaves us with the ‘warm’ yellow and reds. These colors illuminated the clouds over our area making for a very dramatic sunset.

Hope this helps."

Steve Weagle
Chief Meteorolost
WPTV Newschannel 5
Quoting kshipre1:
jeff,

what is your take on the potential path of 97L?


To be honest I don't know yet, but a path thru the Caribbean seems likely after that 97L could have an opportunity for this to turn NNE or NE once it gets to the NW Caribbean but that's too far out to speculate at this time.
1213. Grothar
Quoting Neapolitan:
According to Wilmington NEXRAD, the maximum storm total rainfall estimate as of this moment is 52.4". That's more than 4.25 feet of rain...and it's still falling at the rate of several inches per hour. Yikes...


I normally don't correct anyone, but I think there may be something a little off with that meter. I think that they have had a little more than 15 inches of rain this week not 52. I think we better check. Here is a link:

Link
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Pretty much a non-event for us in Charleston, but a very scary scenario for our friends to the north. To make it worse, these tornados will most likely be hidden in all the rain.
Yeah we really dodged a bullet down in Charleston & adjecent areas. I was anticpating my entire 5 gallon bucket full of rain, but only measured just under 3 inches here in Isle of Palms. Needless to say I'm pretty happy.
wow interesting Jeff. I could not imagine that big blob 97L merging with the remnants of Matthew especially with such high SST's still in the area.

the thing I find strange is that as ripe as the conditions still are for development in the GOM, SW Atlantic and Caribbean, it is weird how some of the models are a little less bullish on tropical systems forming. If anything, I would say chances are high of tropical formation.
Quoting Grothar:


I normally don't correct anyone, but I think there may be something a little off with that meter. I think that they have had a little more than 15 inches of rain this week not 52. I think we better check. Here is a link:

Link


25.67 and still counting 4 day total. Most in history 4 day total
1217. breald
Quoting StormJunkie:


Due to it being extra-tropical, the worst winds and rain are well removed from the center usually. At least I think that's the reason...Or I should say I think it's extra-tropical.


Thanks. Stay safe in SC today.

1218. NCSaint
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Pretty much a non-event for us in Charleston, but a very scary scenario for our friends to the north. To make it worse, these tornados will most likely be hidden in all the rain.


Between 0200 and 0700 this morning there was at least one active warning throughout the period for rain-wrapped tornadoes over the counties north of the Albemarle Sound. Local Met reported at least 3 confirmed touch-downs. Virginia & Maryland may end up seeing the worst of that part of this system
Quoting Grothar:


I normally don't correct anyone, but I think there may be something a little off with that meter. I think that they have had a little more than 15 inches of rain this week not 52. I think we better check. Here is a link:

Link


ILM has had close to 21" and still coming 7:20am

000
NOUS42 KILM 301119
PNSILM
NCZ096-097-099>101-301800-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
720 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...RECENT WILMINGTON RAINFALL SETS RECORDS...
...HIGHEST 3-DAY RAINFALL IN WILMINGTON HISTORY BACK TO 1871...
...SECOND WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD...

EXTRAORDINARY RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. HERE IS HOW WILMINGTON`S RECENT RAINFALL FITS INTO THE
HISTORIC CLIMATE RECORD.

OBSERVED TOTALS...
SUNDAY SEP 26 0.59 INCHES
MONDAY SEP 27 10.33 INCHES
TUESDAY SEP 28 1.96 INCHES
WEDNESDAY SEP 29 7.37 INCHES
THURSDAY SEP 30 0.41 INCHES (1-3 INCHES MORE POSSIBLE)

1-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS...
#1 13.38 INCHES 9/15/1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2 10.33 INCHES 9/27/2010 (MONDAY`S EVENT)
#3 9.56 INCHES 8/31/2006 (TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO)
#4 9.52 INCHES 9/29/1938
#5 8.04 INCHES 8/18/1879 ("GREAT BEAUFORT HURRICANE")

2-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS...
#1 17.71 INCHES 9/15 & 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2 14.73 INCHES 9/14 & 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#3 12.29 INCHES 9/27 & 9/28 2010 (MONDAY/TUESDAY`S EVENT)
#4 11.87 INCHES 10/7 & 10/8 2005 (TROPICAL STORM TAMMY)
#5 11.54 INCHES 7/7 & 7/8 1950

3-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS...
#1 19.66 INCHES 9/27 - 9/29 2010
#2 19.06 INCHES 9/14 - 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#3 17.71 INCHES 9/15 - 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#4 14.73 INCHES 9/13 - 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#5 13.44 INCHES 9/11 - 9/13 1984 (HURRICANE DIANA)

4-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS...
#1 20.25 INCHES 9/26 - 9/29 2010
#2 19.06 INCHES 9/14 - 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2 19.06 INCHES 9/13 - 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#4 17.71 INCHES 9/15 - 9/18 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#5 14.73 INCHES 9/12 - 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)

5-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS...
#1 20.66 INCHES 9/26 - 9/29 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 720 AM...)
#2 19.06 INCHES 9/14 - 9/18 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2 19.06 INCHES 9/13 - 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#2 19.06 INCHES 9/12 - 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)
#5 17.71 INCHES 9/15 - 9/19 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD)

SEPTEMBER MONTHLY RAINFALL RECORDS...
#1 23.41 INCHES 1999 (HURRICANES DENNIS & FLOYD)
#2 20.84 INCHES 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 720 AM...)
#3 20.10 INCHES 1877 ("HURRICANE FOUR")
#4 18.94 INCHES 1984 (HURRICANE DIANA)
#5 16.93 INCHES 1924 ("HURRICANE FIVE" AND "TROP STORM EIGHT")


Final Storm Totals from Charleston Nexrad

Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, I thought it was odd. I hate being confused so early in the morning.

Hey, anyone from South East Florida see that strange sunset when everything turned orange. Wasn't on last night, so don't know if anyone mentioned it. It was really some sight.


yes I did see that strange "orangy" color of the skies during the sunset here in Broward County last night... I also noted it was sort of weird and strange... glad someone else noticed it.
Getting pretty ugly here in Baltimore.
Drive to work was not fun.
1223. MahFL
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Stay safe. Remember the phrase, 'Turn around, don't drown.' Get a hotel room if you need and treat yourself to a nice dinner.


Are you paying ? There is a recession ongoing if you did not notice.
Quoting kshipre1:
wow interesting Jeff. I could not imagine that big blob 97L merging with the remnants of Matthew especially with such high SST's still in the area.

the thing I find strange is that as ripe as the conditions still are for development in the GOM, SW Atlantic and Caribbean, it is weird how some of the models are a little less bullish on tropical systems forming. If anything, I would say chances are high of tropical formation.


SST are high in the Gulf but so is shear. Shear is the key here as if 97L ends up in the eastern gulf which would fall in line with climotology but our saving grace will be shear as a cat 4 entering the gulf could diminish to a cat 2 with such shear in place right now.
Quoting Jax82:
Good luck to anything trying to develop or trying to enter the GOM!!!!!

Holy cow! That's the most dry air I've seen there in a while
1226. tkeith
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Holy cow! That's the most dry air I've seen there in a while
more on the way this weekend according to local mets...
Quoting MahFL:


Are you paying ? There is a recession ongoing if you did not notice.


You're right. It's far more cost-effective to drown yourself and your family than splurging on a dry room at Motel 6...
1228. srada
Quoting kanc2001

SEPTEMBER MONTHLY RAINFALL RECORDS...
#1 23.41 INCHES 1999 (HURRICANES DENNIS & FLOYD)


the record for the month of september involved two tropical systems..dennis & floyd..we are breaking records from a non tropical system..so people placing names on storms wont make a difference at all when it comes to impact..just goes to show a name placed on a storm wont mean a thing
Forgot to mention earlier Tony Curtis died this morning. I am Spartacus. rest in peace.
1230. kwgirl
Quoting Neapolitan:


You're right. It's far cheaper to drown yourself and your family than splurging on a dry room at Motel 6...
You beat me to the reply.
Quoting Jeff9641:


SST are high in the Gulf but so is shear. Shear is the key here as if 97L ends up in the eastern gulf which would fall in line with climotology but our saving grace will be shear as a cat 4 entering the gulf could diminish to a cat 2 with such shear in place right now.


Shear is high now and filled with dry air. Any idea what it might look like a week from now?
Quoting FSUstormnut:
About the sunset... I actually emailed Steve Weagle from WPTV in WPB and this was his reply...

"Paul,
The perfect weather conditions came together this evening for the bright yellow sky over South Florida . The Sun was setting just after 7pm tonight, so it was very low in the sky, and sunlight had to travel through more atmosphere to reach us. This scatters out the shorter wavelength blue and green colors and leaves us with the ‘warm’ yellow and reds. These colors illuminated the clouds over our area making for a very dramatic sunset.

Hope this helps."

Steve Weagle
Chief Meteorolost
WPTV Newschannel 5


I see from reading back many also commented on the original post...

and thank you for posting this explanation. :o)

Do they have a discount for bed bugs.
ahhhh interesting, thanks for your knowledge. See, I thought if drier air moves in behind a front, then in the upper level, winds would begin to subside.

what exactly is the current upper air level pattern? If that is the right question.
1237. Jax82
plenty of moisture riding that train to the NE.

Quoting gordydunnot:
Forgot to mention earlier Tony Curtis died this morning. I am Spartacus. rest in peace.




I thought I read his Obit in then newspaper either Tue or Wed morn???


Quoting clwstmchasr:


Shear is high now and filled with dry air. Any idea what it might look like a week from now?


GFS increases moisture next week across the gulf and FL. Infact rain chances increase to atleast 40 to 50 percent next Wednesday on as a surface trough pushes in from the Bahamas.
1240. MahFL
Tony Curtis was a pretty good actor, I liked him.
1241. angiest
Quoting seflagamma:




I thought I read his Obit in then newspaper either Tue or Wed morn???




First I had heard of it too.
Quoting tkeith:
more on the way this weekend according to local mets...
Fine by me
My bad 9:25pm wed. just the same always a reminder of one's mortality.
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
97L.INVEST


East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
92W.INVEST

Indian Ocean
92A.INVEST

Southern Hemisphere
Still blowing...rain has let up....pressure is coming up !!!


Johnnie Mercer Pier
NDBC - Station JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC Observations
Station JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC
September 30, 2010 8:36 am EDT
Location: 34.21N 77.795W
Wind Direction: S (180°)
Wind Speed: 33.0 knots
Wind Gust: 41.0 knots
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.48 in (998.2 mb)
Air Temperature: 76.1°F (24.5°C)
Water Temperature: 79.9°F (26.6°C)

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1246. cmahan
Quoting Jax82:
plenty of moisture riding that train to the NE.



Those water vapor loops are mesmerizing. Scary, and mesmerizing.
Also kind of ironic reading article Jammie Lee Curtis mother, was Janet Leigh famous as the female star of psycho.Jamie got her first big start in Halloween. I hope she gets through this OK.
Quoting Jax82:
plenty of moisture riding that train to the NE.

I do see that. I also am watching that very broad, pool of dry air descending into the GOM
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
97L.INVEST


East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
92W.INVEST

Indian Ocean
92A.INVEST

Southern Hemisphere


NHC is treating Nicole as an invest. GFDL and HWRF were run at 06Z. Link
Quoting breald:


Thanks. Stay safe in SC today.

While it's finally drying out in Charleston SC, looks like the rain is going to be heading your way now up the East coast. Hopefully nothing flash flooding or anything of that nature occurs. Must say we really dodged a bullet here...I thought I'd see a lot more rain.
Tony Curtis Dead at 85

June 3, 1925 - Sept 29, 2010

I apologize for the mistake, we would not have known about Tony Curtis earlier this week.

It was Eddie Fisher's I saw in the newspaper last weekend...
Eddie Fisher, Aug 10, 1928 - Sept 22, 2010...
but he had been dead a week before they ran the article in the newspaper... he had a terrible live, 4 of his 5 grown children did not even speak to him.
Quoting Jax82:
Good luck to anything trying to develop or trying to enter the GOM!!!!!



That image almost makes the GOM look like the Sahara.
1253. srada
From the Wilmington Star News


Quoting seflagamma:


I see from reading back many also commented on the original post...

and thank you for posting this explanation. :o)

Explanation posted fairly promptly by a member who was apparently ignored. Not as uncommon a phenomenon as folks might think. As a photographer I am a little more in tune to that sort of thing than the average bear. Folks don't pick up on it often times because usually presents as more red tone and blends with sunset. In this case the density of the reflecting storm system absorbed the red without glowing and yellow wavelength was emphasized. This is why people speak of orange/yellow/greenish sky before storms.

Now if we could just learn to ignore the trolls as well as we do posters who appear only rarely . . .
1256. srada
From the Wilmington Star News

Quoting Grothar:


I normally don't correct anyone, but I think there may be something a little off with that meter. I think that they have had a little more than 15 inches of rain this week not 52. I think we better check. Here is a link:

Link


If that figure is in centimeters it would translate to roughly 20.6 inches, I think.
1258. srada
From the Wilmington Star News

1259. whadat
Pressure rising nicely in Grand Cayman now at 1006.4mb.
Link
Good morning.. interesting invest 97L
1261. srada
Well that was weird..I posted pictures of the flooding but different ones came up..
Based on coordinates (13.1N 43.2W), it looks like all the heavy shear sits just to the north of 97L for the moment.

1264. usa777
We are getting incredible amounts of rain here in Annapolis Maryland. Alot of street flooding. Hopefully the winds wont get too bad here this afternoon. About 20 mins ago I would say it was raining as hard as it was during my episode with Katrina.
Quoting whadat:
Pressure rising nicely in Grand Cayman now at 1006.4mb.
Link
Some good news for you guys down there.
1266. spathy
Any thoughts on the low over Guatemala getting into the Caribbean/Gulf of Honduras?
Morning All.




This is Hurricane JOSE, october 1999. Looks like a track like this is very possible with 97L
72 hours shear forecast for the entire Atlantic Basin.

Quoting CaribBoy:



This is Hurricane JOSE, october 1999. Looks like a track like this is very possible with 97L
Looks good. At the very least, I personally don't see this system threatening the CONUS at the moment.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Good! Keep those plots far off the SC & NC coast. I got 2.90 inches in my 5 gal bucket on the Isle of Palms and am hoping I don't see anymore for the next week! lol
Quoting katadman:


If that figure is in centimeters it would translate to roughly 20.6 inches, I think.


But the figures isn't in centimeters; the radar site itself states:

Max rainfall (in)
One final time, an excerpt from yesterday's blog entry:

  • With yesterday's designation (and rapid dissipation) of the very-wet Nicole as a tropical storm, the 2010 hurricane season stands at a pretty remarkable 14-7-5. To put that into perspective, that's just three named storms behind what 2005 (which ended with 27) had on this date, three behind 1933 (21), and just one behind 1995 (20). Finishing up the season at the same distance behind those years would give us, respectively, 24, 18, or 19 named storms. That's assuming a direct linear comparison, of course; if we use to-date ratios instead, we'll finish with—again respectively—22.24, 17.29, or 18.67 named storms. It's safe to say, then, we should end the season with at the very least 17 named storms—and seeing as many as 22 is not out of the question.

  • Further proof that this should be one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons ever: 2010 is eight named storms ahead of 2009—a very anemic year tropical cylcone-wise. yet even 2009 managed to squeeze out three more named storms after this date, and even tying that meager amount would give 2010 a total of 17 named storms...a very busy
  • season indeed.

    Named Tropical Cyclones by Date

  • Igor is the year's ACE champion to date with 42.445. To give a little perspective on that, one Igor equals (that is, accumulated as much energy as):
    —1.53 Earls
    —1.95 Danielles
    —2.99 Julias
    —6.26 Alexes
    —7.32 Karls
    —11.55 Lisas
    —14.44 Fionas
    —21.82 Colins
    —30.87 Matthews
    —33.36 Hermines
    —115.50 Bonnies or Gastons
    —346.49 Nicoles


ACE Contribution by Storm

Lots more here.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Good! Keep those plots far off the SC & NC coast. I got 2.90 inches in my 5 gal bucket on the Isle of Palms and am hoping I don't see anymore for the next week! lol


A lot of rain for us too down in SFL, good heading into dry season though. Very fresh this morning, loving it.
Going to enjoy the dry mid 80's and low 70's the next few days. It's been dog hot this summer, really looking forward to the cool down this year.
Quoting Neapolitan:
One final time, an excerpt from yesterday's blog entry:



  • With yesterday's designation (and rapid dissipation) of the very-wet Nicole as a tropical storm, the 2010 hurricane season stands at a pretty remarkable 14-7-5. To put that into perspective, that's just three named storms behind what 2005 (which ended with 27) had on this date, three behind 1933 (21), and just one behind 1995 (20). Finishing up the season at the same distance behind those years would give us, respectively, 24, 18, or 19 named storms. That's assuming a direct linear comparison, of course; if we use to-date ratios instead, we'll finish with—again respectively—22.24, 17.29, or 18.67 named storms. It's safe to say, then, we should end the season with at the very least 17 named storms—and seeing as many as 22 is not out of the question.

  • Further proof that this should be one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons ever: 2010 is eight named storms ahead of 2009—a very anemic year tropical cylcone-wise. yet even 2009 managed to squeeze out three more named storms after this date, and even tying that meager amount would give 2010 a total of 17 named storms...a very busy season indeed.

    Named Tropical Cyclones by Date


  • Igor is the year's ACE champion to date with 42.445. To give a little perspective on that, one Igor equals (that is, accumulated as much energy as):
    —1.53 Earls
    —1.95 Danielles
    —2.99 Julias
    —6.26 Alexes
    —7.32 Karls
    —11.55 Lisas
    —14.44 Fionas
    —21.82 Colins
    —30.87 Matthews
    —33.36 Hermines
    —115.50 Bonnies or Gastons
    —346.49 Nicoles


ACE Contribution by Storm

Lots more here.
Good post...nice info. A very active season indeed...with all of Oct & Nov still to go.
wow invest 97L 30%
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Going to enjoy the dry mid 80's and low 70's the next few days. It's been dog hot this summer, really looking forward to the cool down this year.
I hear ya. I've been ready for the leaves to change weeks ago.
1282. fire635
Quoting cat5hurricane:
I hear ya. I've been ready for the leaves to change weeks ago.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Going to enjoy the dry mid 80's and low 70's the next few days. It's been dog hot this summer, really looking forward to the cool down this year.

Me too! It seems like this summer was a pretty hot one here in Florida... cool weather is welcome ANYtime
1283. Grothar
Quoting katadman:


If that figure is in centimeters it would translate to roughly 20.6 inches, I think.


Now that is more like it. The WC said this morning 23 inches and more coming.
bettes on twc just asked nabb "when we can get high again"!!,oooops,funny stuff......he was" reefering "to high pressure,lol
1285. spathy
Tornado Warning in SE Virginia.
BLOG IS SLOWWW
1287. Jax82
Quoting CaribBoy:
BLOG IS SLOWWW


It could be because everyone has flooded due to Nicole, or the fact there are not Hypecanes, Doomcanes or Apocolypacanes to follow at the moment!!!
1288. spathy
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
956 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CITY OF CHESAPEAKE IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHWESTERN CITY OF NORFOLK IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
CITY OF PORTSMOUTH IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 956 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEEP CREEK...AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN PORTSMOUTH...DOWNTOWN NORFOLK...CRADOCK...GHENT...PORTLOCK
AND SOUTH NORFOLK.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION AND A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE
GROUND.
1289. Relix
97L shouldn't amount to anything thanks to shear.
WOW 21 INCHES OF RAin.

Tropical Storm Nicole has dissipated, however a serious flood threat continues for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole could become an historic storm for the East Coast. Millions of people are in the path of the storm, and major flood concerns exist for every state from the Carolinas to Maine. Already, the remnants of Nicole helped contribute to breaking a rain record set by Hurricane Floyd in Wilmington North Carolina. The city got 21 inches of rain since Sunday.

Outages are beginning to affect towns in the Carolinas. At least 8,000 people in South Carolina were reported to have no power Thursday morning. In Washington D.C., Thursday morning's commute was a mess. Thursday evening will be no better.
Rainfall so far this week has been driven by a stalled frontal boundary and a slow-moving upper trough.

Nicole will help provide a tropical moisture injection as a new low develops and tracks up the East Coast through Thursday night.
Quoting Relix:
97L shouldn't amount to anything thanks to shear.
thanks for the bad news.,.
1292. Gearsts
Quoting Relix:
97L shouldn't amount to anything thanks to shear.
What you think the shear will stay there forever?Look at the WV loop the TUTT is moving nw very fast.
Quoting Jax82:


It could be because everyone has flooded due to Nicole, or the fact there are not Hypecanes, Doomcanes or Apocolypacanes to follow at the moment!!!
Hey if it isn't about FL, TX, or LA it isn't of interest to this site. ;P~
Post # 406 shows a good photo of last nights sunset. Post 449 & 467 gives my take of it.
High Wind Warning for Southern New Haven, CT
from 11 am EDT, Thu., Sep. 30, 2010 until 6 am EDT, Fri., Oct. 1, 2010

Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
4:23 am EDT, Thu., Sep. 30, 2010

... HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE... DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

More Information
... HIGH WINDS TO DEVELOP TODAY...

.A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL ROTATE TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND STALL TO THE WEST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT TRACKS EAST AGAIN THROUGH THE REGION.

1296. Relix
Quoting Gearsts:
What you think the shear will stay there forever?Look at the WV loop the TUTT is moving nw very fast.


Another TUTT is moving from the East to West as well. It could aid development but it all depends on timing.
MAYBE TORNADO WATCH SOON FOR NEW YORK CITY..AROUND 3PM.
1290. jasoniscoolman2010xo 9:09 AM EST on September 30, 2010
You would gain cred if you would post link or reference to quoted stuff. Looks like you are claiming it as your own so when you do post an original observation folks dismiss it.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
1290. jasoniscoolman2010xo 9:09 AM EST on September 30, 2010
You would gain cred if you would post link or reference to quoted stuff. Looks like you are claiming it as your own so when you do post an original observation folks dismiss it.

Same deal for caps.
1300. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Good! Keep those plots far off the SC & NC coast. I got 2.90 inches in my 5 gal bucket on the Isle of Palms and am hoping I don't see anymore for the next week! lol
I have a good question for you or anybody that can answer it....Did ANYONE predict just how strong this trough would be?...Anyway, notice how the trough is removing a lot of the energy from the Western Caribbean and transporting it north..This much stronger than normal trough thankfully spared Floridians from Lisa and whatever spins up in the Western Caribbean within the next few days. This is certainly one of the deepest troughs I have seen for this time of year. What are your thoughts on 97L,s track? It is a big s.o.b..
1301. kwgirl
Quoting sammywammybamy:


This was the View of that image 10 minutes ago:



The Whole Sky was that Color
Wow, those colors look like the "end of the world" scenario whenever you see one of those apocalypse movies.
1302. XLR8
New Blog
1303. kwgirl
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
We also just had the Martian sunset reflecting off of what looks light upper level outflow as it's moving opposite the low level clouds.
Pressure here is 29.28 in (Rising). Zip 33042.
pressure in Marathon is 29.34 in (Falling).
In Key West our sunset was normal because the skies were clearing to the West. We had some clouds moving in which created a nice "after glow" in the clouds.