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Nicole kills five in Jamaica; historic rains in North Carolina; tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010

The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential heavy rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents, and caused millions of dollars in damages. Nicole dumped 6.93" of rain on Kingston, and 8.62" in the Kingston suburb of Norbrook. Rains were heavier on the western end of the island; 8.47" fell at a personal weather station at Irwindale before the power failed and data was lost.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nicole at 2:20pm EDT on 9/29/10. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Flooding in Jamaica from Tropical Storm Nicole. Image credit: Jamaica Observer.

In Southeast Florida, Nicole brought 5.83" of rain to Miami, 9.58" to Plantation Key, and 5.44" to Homestead. However, Florida escaped serious flooding. Cuba also received widespread rain amounts of 5 - 10 inches, but there are no reports of serious flooding on the island. The remnants of Nicole will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas today.

Historic rainfall event for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC recorded 20.69 inches of rain over the past four days, and 21.28" for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall totals have eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 4-day and 5-day rainfall events, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today in Wilmington, which might make this month the rainiest month in city history. A series of non-tropical low pressure systems have been developing along a stalled front off the Carolina/North Carolina coast over the past day, and this activity will continue through tonight before the rains finally end late tonight. The historic rainfall is causing severe and damaging flooding across much of eastern North Carolina. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation for North Carolina since Sunday shows that the precursor moisture from Nicole has brought widespread rain amounts in excess of ten inches to eastern North Carolina, with over fifteen inches (white colors surrounded by dark purple) near Wilmington.

Heavy rain, flooding, and tornadoes expected from Virginia to New England
The intense plume of tropical moisture streaming northwards along the U.S. East coast will bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches across a wide swath of coast from North Carolina northwards to New England today and Friday. The wunderground severe weather map shows that flood warnings are already posted for portions of Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia, and flood watches extend northwards though Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of New England. Tornado watches have been posted for much of the Mid-Atlantic coast, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put the region in their "slight risk" area for severe weather. One tornado warning has already been issued for coastal Virginia this morning. Three possible tornadoes were reported yesterday in northeastern North Carolina.

Disturbance 97L
Two tropical waves, located 600 - 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, are generating a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. NHC has designated this area Invest 97L this morning. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, through Saturday morning, then increase to levels marginal for development, 15 - 25 knots, Saturday afternoon through Monday. Some slow development of 97L is likely over this time period, and NHC is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The system is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and should slow down to about 10 mph by Saturday. 97L will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday. The ECMWF model is the only model that develops 97L, and foresees that 97L will track across the northern Lesser Antilles and pass near Puerto Rico on Monday and the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. There are major differences in how the models handle the steering current forecast for next week, and the long-range track of 97L is highly uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L. The upper right portion on the disturbance, centered near 13.5N 45W, is most likely to develop into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Post Tropical Storm Nicole Sunset.
Taken at the Lower Sugarloaf Key Estuary as the skies cleared after TS Nicole moved north.
Hooray for the power company!
Hooray for the power company!
Current rain storm took out a tree and a power line. This is what my front yard looks like right now. Praise the power company for responding so quickly- so I could post this picture!

Flood Tornado Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting hunkerdown:
at his age, every night you are alive is considered a good night


I will defer. LOL
Guys and gals....I am amazed at how well the models predicted this whole situation WELL in advance. What was it?, a week and 1/2 ago the models where predicting the development of a tropical low in the western carib, with paths near south florida, and a north/south linear feed of moisture with low pressure systems training rains up the east coast.
Beautiful, and if 97 develops i can only hope for 1/2 of that level of accuracy.
Quoting pottery:

Missed this one in the Melee..
You are absolutely correct, of course.
But the quality of the coconut water is very important.
Young nuts are the best.
oh no, this is not gonna turn out good for you...
1504. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


No one can fault you for that. We all have our preferences. Hope you're having a nice night, Gro.


I am now. Needed a good laugh. Thanks.
Quoting NRAamy:
Doorman... I told you I ain't streaking in here by myself.....



I'm not bashfull, been busted wit a naked swirl before. Thank god I knew the cop!
Complete Update

Pottery Jr (97L)
- Now has a 3 in one of the Track Intensitys... and 1 & 2's in numerous others.




AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
1507. Grothar
Quoting hunkerdown:
at his age, every night you are alive is considered a good night


As I mentioned many times before, I don't even buy green bananas anymore. Afraid I won't get to eat them.
1508. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:
Oh oh... Pottery Jr is being bad...

Speak to his Mother.
I am done telling her...

(but what's he up to now??)
Quoting Grothar:


I am now. Needed a good laugh. Thanks.


I am pleased. Long day here, glad to see the blog having some fun. A continued good evening to all!
Link

Night Everyone!!!!!!!!!1
Quoting hunkerdown:
oh no, this is not gonna turn out good for you...


OMG... Did he actually type that???
this is gonna be good :)

1512. NRAamy
"young nuts are the best".....

Hmmm... I think I need a mouthful before i can qualify that statement..
Quoting Grothar:


As I mentioned many times before, I don't even buy green bananas anymore. Afraid I won't get to eat them.


Thanks for your good humor. LOL!
Most water extracted from underground stocks ends up in the ocean, the researchers note. The team estimates the contribution of groundwater depletion to sea level rise to be 0.8 millimeters per year, which is about a quarter of the current total rate of sea level rise of 3.1 millimeters per year. That's about as much sea-level rise as caused by the melting of glaciers and icecaps outside of Greenland and Antarctica, and it exceeds or falls into the high end of previous estimates of groundwater depletion's contribution to sea level rise, the researchers add.
1516. Grothar
Quoting doorman79:
Link

Night Everyone!!!!!!!!!1


Nite doorman, thanks for the laughs. You did a good deed.
1518. NRAamy
Night, doorman...

Don't forget the dress code for tomorrow night....
1519. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Thanks for your good humor. LOL!


And you as well!!
Leave Father O'Pottery alone.
1521. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

Pottery Jr (97L)
- Now has a 3 in one of the Track Intensitys... and 1 & 2's in numerous others.




AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
They still have 97L at 30%????
Quoting gordydunnot:
Leave Father O'Pottery alone.
Oh my...
Zing!
1524. pottery
Quoting gordydunnot:
Leave Father O'Pottery alone.

Bless you, my Son.
You will be reported (I mean rewarded) in the Hereafter....
ahem...

excuse me but who reversed this storm flow we had set up...
to the " Carolinas"

how come I be gettin the thunder storms mashing me from da North now?
A song just for pottery.
...it jus must be big fish Orca, I believe.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
ahem...

excuse me but who reversed this storm flow we had set up...
to the " Carolinas"

how come I be gettin the thunder storms mashing me from da North now?


Pottery did it... Voodoo
And its the Carols... or East Alabama... one of those two.
1532. pottery
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
A song just for pottery.

...and a Classic, too!
Written by a Calypsonian here in the '40's, and sold to the Andrews.
Went on to become a Major Hit for them.
Deals with the social implications of having 150,000 US Soldiers here during the War.
There were other Calypso's with the same theme.
"Jean and Dinah" by Sparrow was also a Classic. UTube it..
Quoting Grothar:


And you as well!!


I appreciate that. If you have a song you'd like to hear, I'll be happy to search for an appropriate performance.
1535. geepy86
nuts or not we need the hippo.
That was a good one StSimon Pottery taught those girls that song. Private lesson for sure.
1539. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


Pottery remembers them from their Teen hits.

True...
(close, but not quite....)
1540. geepy86
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
Link
1541. geepy86
for real?
1542. Grothar
Good thing the kids aren't on the blog tonight. I've even blushed a few times. It was either that or the medications.
1543. NRAamy
JasonIsLameMan, that link was lame....
1544. geepy86
Quoting NRAamy:
JasonIsLameMan, that link was lame....

so true
Good early morning! I wonder why such a delay on getting Floaters up this year. Has to be because of Money!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Pottery did it... Voodoo
And its the Carols... or East Alabama... one of those two.


naa, Pottery da Calypso mon would not do that to us fellow Islanders.
1547. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I appreciate that. If you have a song you'd like to hear, I'll be happy to search for an appropriate performance.


How about "Stormy Weather" by the great Lena Horne. It is also on topic. We can't get banned for that one.
1548. NRAamy
It was the meds, Groth.... I fail to believe that an old salty dog like you can blush....

;)
1549. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


Pottery did it... Voodoo
And its the Carols... or East Alabama... one of those two.

Yeah!
The Voodoo works.
Did you notice how the Satellites went down when that heavy stuff was overhead here today, and when they came back up, the Waters were Parted and Diverted to Guyana and Grenada?
(sorry for them, but I look out for No.1)
Quoting Grothar:


How about "Stormy Weather" by the great Lena Horne. It is also on topic. We can't get banned for that one.


Ah, wisdom never goes out of style. I will busy myself.
Quoting Grothar:


How about "Stormy Weather" by the great Lena Horne. It is also on topic. We can't get banned for that one.


I've posted that before. Although I like the Billie Holiday cover better.
1555. NRAamy
Tampa...you're right, it is because of money...floaters are expensive...trust me...
Did they take Invest 97L off......it is missing on some sites.....WOW
Quoting pottery:

Yeah!
The Voodoo works.
Did you notice how the Satellites went down when that heavy stuff was overhead here today, and when they came back up, the Waters were Parted and Diverted to Guyana and Grenada?
(sorry for them, but I look out for No.1)


hmmmmmmmmm......
Quoting NRAamy:
Tampa...you're right, it is because of money...floaters are expensive...trust me...


LMAO.....you have had too many purple drinks tonite.....LOL
NRAAMy I prefer to double down myself it's discounting at it's best.
wow 55 west
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I've posted that before. Although I like the Billie Holiday cover better.


Billie Holiday was great. What a voice!
1563. NRAamy
How about "Pennies from Heaven"?

1564. pottery
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
The original, I believe. Hope it meets with your approval.


One of The Best!
1565. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
How about "Pennies from Heaven"?


Hundred dollar bills would be better....
Inflation and all that, you know.
1566. Grothar
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
The original, I believe. Hope it meets with your approval.



Where did you ever find that? She was one beautiful woman.
1567. pottery
Hey, I just realised that it is October...
Quoting pottery:

One of The Best!


Good evening Pottery, Hope the weather's not treating you poorly. Looks like the area we spoke about, is trying hard.
1569. JLPR2
Firing up near 15N, 50W
1570. NRAamy
Happy October....

:)

1571. pottery
Quoting pottery:
Hey, I just realised that it is October...

Yeah?
So What?
1572. geepy86
Pennies From Heaven - Billie Holiday
sorry tried to link it
1574. pottery
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Good evening Pottery, Hope the weather's not treating you poorly. Looks like the area we spoke about, is trying hard.

Trying it's best!
I hope it goes POOF!
Quoting Grothar:


Where did you ever find that? She was one beautiful woman.


No argument there at all. YouTube. It's a wonderful resource. I am sincerely gratified that you enjoyed it.
Quoting pottery:

Trying it's best!
I hope it goes POOF!


Agreed!
1577. NRAamy
Hahahahahahahaha! Love it, Orca!!

:)
Critics agree this is best blog in America.
1579. pottery
Quoting pottery:

Yeah?
So What?

Dont be so Aggressive! Are you a Troll?
October starts with O
Orca starts with O
Otto starts with O
Trouble starts with Oh ****

see??
97L is starting to look like the beast coming from the East on models.
Good Night All!

1583. Grothar
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good Night All!



Not GT. Don't like that map though. Too close to home. You know how long it takes us to evacutate on walkers.
1584. NRAamy
Pott....it seems all my harping on my non-husband has turned his mind to glue....

Get a hold of yourself, man! Here, try this redbull....
1585. pottery
Quoting TampaSpin:
97L is starting to look like the beast coming from the East on models.

Looks like a Scorpion to me. On the Rainbow..
Quoting pottery:

Dont be so Aggressive! Are you a Troll?
October starts with O
Orca starts with O
Otto starts with O
Trouble starts with Oh ****

see??

hey...
O I get it
1587. Bielle
Quoting pottery:

I am sure that lots of people live close to there.
But they dont discuss weather at midnight.
They dont even blog.
I wonder why???


ORCA: I'll be there in December. Does that help?
Quoting TampaSpin:
97L is starting to look like the beast coming from the East on models.


yeah... those 3's do give it a little level of respect don't they
1589. JLPR2
Also another little thing, sorry for interrupting your awesome self conversation Pottery!

The new area of developing convection is pretty much aligned with the 850mb vort.



Carry on Poterry, but dont go around making handles like ''DudePoteryisCool! XD
1590. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
Pott....it seems all my harping on my non-husband has turned his mind to glue....

Get a hold of yourself, man! Here, try this redbull....

Oh Lord, save me from this Woman.....
Red Bulls
Brown Cows
Purple Hippos....
We are all DOOM.......
Quoting Bielle:


ORCA: I'll be there in December. Does that help?


Sure... I want two FULL bottles... they will only ship EMPTY bottles...some silly customs regulation... who buys an EMPTY bottle of rum?
Quoting pottery:

Oh Lord, save me from this Woman.....
Red Bulls
Brown Cows
Purple Hippos....
We are all DOOM.......


Sounds like some barn yard cereal.. Lucky Farms
1594. xcool


1595. JLPR2
Since it is pretty quiet tonight, how about some ratings for my last AC?
Pretty please! :]
Link
1596. xcool


south Haiti
Quoting pottery:

Oh Lord, save me from this Woman.....
Red Bulls
Brown Cows
Purple Hippos....
We are all DOOM.......


lmao
1598. pottery
Quoting JLPR2:
Also another little thing, sorry for interrupting your awesome self conversation Pottery!

The new area of developing convection is pretty much aligned with the 850mb vort.



Carry on Poterry, but dont go around making handles like ''DudePoteryisCool! XD

Not sure I like the look of that...
And I promise I wont change my name.
I am much too arrogant for that..........
1599. beell
Not looking too tropical tonight.



Loop
Quoting zoomiami:


lmao


Thank god Zoo is here.. maybe sanity will prevail?
1601. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:
Since it is pretty quiet tonight, how about some ratings for my last AC?
Pretty please! :]
Link


We will if you explain what AC means.
1602. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:

Not sure I like the look of that...
And I promise I wont change my name.
I am much too arrogant for that..........


Good... good... I dont think I couldn't handle another blogger like that :\

LOL!
1603. Bielle
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sure... I want two FULL bottles... they will only ship EMPTY bottles...some silly customs regulation... who buys an EMPTY bottle of rum?


I gather this is a special rum not available where you live.
1604. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


We will if you explain what AC means.


Approvers Choice :]
1605. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sure... I want two FULL bottles... they will only ship EMPTY bottles...some silly customs regulation... who buys an EMPTY bottle of rum?

I have to tell you...
they ship full bottles.
It's the Delivery Guy at your end who made up the empty bottle story.
And you fell for that????
Orca that cereal sounds magically delicious.
Well you can't live in S. Fl without AC.
Quoting pottery:

I have to tell you...
they ship full bottles.
It's the Delivery Guy at your end who made up the empty bottle story.
And you fell for that????


Nice, LOL. Have a good night, all.
1610. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:


Approvers Choice :]


Keep going! I am a little slow on the uptake. If it is the flower on your post, it is the most exotic image I have seen since Betty White was in a bathing suit.
Who is old enough...or wise...to remember this song:

1612. JLPR2
To me it seems 97L has decided where it wants to be.
Quoting Bielle:


I gather this is a special rum not available where you live.


Actually I am going to go and check our specialty store. They have a special Canadian Navy 100th anniversary special edition... I want one :) BTW, the rum is one of a kind 42% or 84 proof :)


Link
1615. pottery
Quoting JLPR2:
To me it seems 97L has decided where it wants to be.

Where do you put it?
Good morning/Evening night shift....Hot Cofee and Cheese danish ready!!
1617. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Keep going! I am a little slow on the uptake. If it is the flower on your post, it is the most exotic image I have seen since Betty White was in a bathing suit.


ha!
For some reason an image of Betty White currently came to my mind and that and a bathing suit... well... :S

Actually I'm pretty active on Wunderphotos, this blog isn't the only thing keeping me here. XD
So far 171 photos uploaded in 3months. :D
1618. Grothar
Quoting traumaboyy:
Good morning/Evening night shift....Hot Cofee and Cheese danish ready!!


Any prune danish there?? LOL
1619. geepy86
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Who is old enough...or wise...to remember this song:

god, I'm getting old.
Quoting beell:
Not looking too tropical tonight.



Loop


The trough still amazes me, ATM.

So does this at the dawn of October, very fall like in SEFL.
1621. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:

Where do you put it?


There where the deepest convection is developing, it's a little to the NE of the last center adjustment, but right with the 850mb vort max.
Hi traumaboyy!
Got my caffeine level in therapeutic range - I'm good for a couple of hours.
BTW - going to Dega in Oct?
Quoting JLPR2:
Since it is pretty quiet tonight, how about some ratings for my last AC?
Pretty please! :]
Link


Got it.....brought the average down though!! :)
Hmm 940 pm... time to kick the mutts out to do their thing... and then crawl into bed.. being an old man.. I go to bed at 10 :)

Knowing the time zones... I have no idea what some of you are doing up so late.. or in some cases..so early.

Complete Update, showing Pottery Jr having some bad ideas for the future.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting Grothar:


Any prune danish there?? LOL


naa but could probably rustle up a brown bomber for you!!
Quoting geepy86:
god, I'm getting old.


That song is considered a "cult" classic. Sadly, she passed away a few years later.
1627. pottery
Quoting traumaboyy:
Good morning/Evening night shift....Hot Cofee and Cheese danish ready!!

If I drank a coffee now, there is no telling what will happen next.......
(and as I typed that, a Screech Owl Scheeched just outside the window and nearly caused me to expire entirely) Whew...
1628. NRAamy
.
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
Link
nice link about the storm.
Quoting emeraldcoast:
Hi traumaboyy!
Got my caffeine level in therapeutic range - I'm good for a couple of hours.
BTW - going to Dega in Oct?


We are working on that right now as a matter of fact!!

Seems like all my bunch has a conflict this time so it is not looking good but will just have to have a Dega party at my place!!
1631. pottery
Quoting JLPR2:


There where the deepest convection is developing, it's a little to the NE of the last center adjustment, but right with the 850mb vort max.

More NE??
May have to change the tracks there Orca..
Quoting pottery:

If I drank a coffee now, there is no telling what will happen next.......
(and as I typed that, a Screech Owl Scheeched just outside the window and nearly caused me to expire entirely) Whew...


ROFL.....I love old people!!!!
1634. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:


There where the deepest convection is developing, it's a little to the NE of the last center adjustment, but right with the 850mb vort max.


In all sincerety, If you did those photos, it is the work of a true artist. When I worked in Washington, DC. I would spend as much time at the Botanic Gardens at Garfield Center and at the Washington Botanical Gardens at the capital. Great work.
1635. Bielle
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually I am going to go and check our specialty store. They have a special Canadian Navy 100th anniversary special edition... I want one :) BTW, the rum is one of a kind 42% or 84 proof :)


Link


We have Pusser's in Canada, but not that decanter:
PUSSER'S BRITISH NAVY RUM
LCBO 136754 | 750 mL bottle

Price: $ 35.85
Spirits, Rum
42.0% Alcohol/Vol.

Made in: Barbados, Barbados
By: Pusser'S Rum Ltd.
1636. Grothar
Quoting traumaboyy:


naa but could probably rustle up a brown bomber for you!!


That'll work.
Quoting NRAamy:
Hey Trauma!

You got some young nuts? They've been on everyone's minds tonite.


Amy I am looking and I think the date has been worn off or something......can't determine age :-)
1638. Bielle
Quoting geepy86:
god, I'm getting old.


That's the same year I got a divorce and my MBA. Now that's old.
Quoting Grothar:


That'll work.


Dam right it will!!
Do yall usually do the infield?
We haven't ever been able to work that out.
1641. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
Hey Trauma!

You got some young nuts? They've been on everyone's minds tonite.

"young nuts, with time, get old"
Ancient Arabic saying...
(actually, I just made that up, but it is possibly factual. I would'nt know, of course)
1642. NRAamy
Hahahahahahahaha!

;)

1643. NRAamy
.
1644. xcool




sw of jamaica
1645. geepy86
You just can't have one pistachio.
Quoting emeraldcoast:
Do yall usually do the infield?
We haven't ever been able to work that out.


North Park top of the hill...have only missed a few races in last ten years up there. Free camping and the best of the partying....if that is what you like to do. If you go to bed at 9pm would not recommend North Park!!
Young nut, get outta my mind:

1649. geepy86
Quoting NRAamy:
Ever have cheesy nuts?
Damn, where's Orca with the smiley face cartoon......

Those don't sound real tasty.
Quoting NRAamy:
You started the young nut controversy, Pott...

I'm still hungry.....



Never been/Not going....but you gotta love those California Girls!!!
Tornado warning for east haven unit 1:15am..wow..i am dancing now.
1652. JLPR2
Quoting traumaboyy:


Got it.....brought the average down though!! :)


XD I'll get you for that, some laxative on your English muffing and coffee should do it. XD LOL!

Quoting Grothar:


In all sincerety, If you did those photos, it is the work of a true artist. When I worked in Washington, DC. I would spend as much time at the Botanic Gardens at Garfield Center and at the Washington Botanical Gardens at the capital. Great work.


Thank you, it is a little hobby of mine.
1653. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
You started the young nut controversy, Pott...

I'm still hungry.....


There are some Cashews around here somewhere...
1654. Grothar
Quoting traumaboyy:


Amy I am looking and I think the date has been worn off or something......can't determine age :-)


Spit soda over the keyboard and the funny thing is I wasn't even drinking at the time. You are all on a roll tonight. One thing about Amy, she brings out the best in people. I guess everything has an expiration date. What scares me, is when it reads "best if used before August 10, 1998.
Quoting NRAamy:
Ever have cheesy nuts?
Damn, where's Orca with the smiley face cartoon......


ROFLMFAO.....did you actually ask if we had ever had ......lol.....CHEESY NUTS??
1656. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

There are some Cashews around here somewhere...


Walnuts are the best, they are easy to crack.
1657. geepy86
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
Tornado warning for east haven unit 1:15am..wow..i am dancing now.
why?
1658. NRAamy
.
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
Tornado warning for east haven unit 1:15am..wow..i am dancing now.
u better go under your bed jason if the tornado hit your house my friend..
Quoting Grothar:


Spit soda over the keyboard and the funny thing is I wasn't even drinking at the time. You are all on a roll tonight. One thing about Amy, she brings out the best in people. I guess everything has an expiration date. What scares me, is when it reads "best if used before August 10, 1998.


LOL....."Its not the years.....it's the miles!"
1661. xcool
jasoniscoolman2011xz: hey
Quoting JLPR2:


XD I'll get you for that, some laxative on your English muffing and coffee should do it. XD LOL!



Thank you, it is a little hobby of mine.


what little hobby are you talking about??
Quoting NRAamy:
California girls prefer nuts with some bite to them....


how bout some wasabi nuts or peas??

MMMMMM
1664. Grothar
Quoting traumaboyy:


LOL....."Its not the years.....it's the miles!"


If that were true, I am well beyond my expiration date, under both categories.
1665. geepy86
Quoting traumaboyy:


how bout some wasabi nuts or peas??

MMMMMM
I love you
Quoting xcool:
jasoniscoolman2011xz: hey
what up 20 inches of rain its so much rain for N.C.
1667. pottery
Quoting traumaboyy:


ROFLMFAO.....did you actually ask if we had ever had ......lol.....CHEESY NUTS??

They sound so,....unclean
1668. NRAamy
Trauma...I got into this nut conversation late....the menfolk started it....
WHERE IS THIS CRAZY CENTER TO Disturbance 97L
1670. xcool
jasoniscoolman2011xz .ouch lots of rain..
1671. geepy86
hey NRA your not the only chick.
Quoting traumaboyy:


North Park top of the hill...have only missed a few races in last ten years up there. Free camping and the best of the partying....if that is what you like to do. If you go to bed at 9pm would not recommend North Park!!

Yeh, I've heard some great stories about that area.
With work/time conflicts, we've only been able to go up ultra-early Sun AM for the cup race and then head back home in the PM.
Someday maybe we can do the whole weekend. It's good to have goals!
1673. Bielle
Quoting NRAamy:
Trauma...I got into this nut conversation late....the menfolk started it....
I figured as the only chick in here, my take on nuts would be more relevant....

Young nuts are fresher, but the taste doesn't last as long....

So, if you have young nuts, it's best to add cheese....

If "only chick" = only young 'un, then perhaps yes; if "only chick" = only female, then no.
Quoting geepy86:
I love you


I hope yer a girl!!
1675. geepy86
Quoting Bielle:

If "only chick" = only young 'un, then perhaps yes; if "only chick" = only female, then no.
same here.
1676. geepy86
Quoting traumaboyy:


I hope yer a girl!!
yes, but you said wasabi nuts first.
1677. NRAamy
Sorry geepy....
Quoting NRAamy:
California girls prefer nuts with some bite to them....


:0 seriously....?
Right geepy and amy - I'm a chick - yikes I'm too old to be a chick. More like a hen. Yikes, that's even worse.
1680. pottery
Quoting traumaboyy:


I hope yer a girl!!

heheheheh
I love this place...
Quoting pottery:

They sound so,....unclean


Well that's what happen.....hang on....better just keep that one to myself!!!
1682. NRAamy
Bielle, sorry...

And I'm not that young...

:)
1683. pottery
the place is positively swarming with Babes, Trauma!
Good evening/morning I put together a quick update on Ex-Nicole, if you want to take a look and leave a comment, the link is below:
Link
1685. pottery
Quoting traumaboyy:


Well that's what happen.....hang on....better just keep that one to myself!!!

Good plan....
1686. geepy86
Quoting traumaboyy:


Well that's what happen.....hang on....better just keep that one to myself!!!
dude, don't clean it on my account. I've been around. LOL
hey guys just cause you won't get banned for innuendos and metaphors doesn't mean they aren't just as gross and inappropriate...
1689. Bielle
Quoting NRAamy:
Bielle, sorry...

And I'm not that young...

:)


And, if you read my earlier post about the year 1978, then I doubt you are this old, either.
Quoting emeraldcoast:

Yeh, I've heard some great stories about that area.
With work/time conflicts, we've only been able to go up ultra-early Sun AM for the cup race and then head back home in the PM.
Someday maybe we can do the whole weekend. It's good to have goals!


Usually get there tuesday morning when the campground opens and stay till Monday. My crew consists of about 20 people normally and I am affectionately called the "Mayor" of Hell Hill.....but seems everyone busy this time around so probably be April before we can hit it again :-(
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
WHERE IS THIS CRAZY CENTER TO Disturbance 97L

There are 3 tropical waves combining into one system, that is an awesome question!!
Quoting xcool:
jasoniscoolman2011xz .ouch lots of rain..
LOOK LIKE THE HEAVY RAIN ITS GETTING BLOCK MOVE TO THE EAST..FOR THE NORTHEAST..BY TIME THE RAIN GET TO THE NORTHEAST ITS WILL GO NOTH OF THEM OR DRY UP LITTLE MORE.
1693. geepy86
Quoting Bielle:


And, if you read my earlier post about the year 1978, then I doubt you are this old, either.
Didn't see the post.
Warning blog police have arrived from an orderly line an evacuate. It's for your own safety.
1695. NRAamy
Sorry Jed.....

:(

I'll say goodnight....
Crap….I’ll be up till the 2:00 am. TWO.
1697. geepy86
darn
Quoting pottery:
the place is positively swarming with Babes, Trauma!


Whoa!!....like three of em.....Drinks are on ME!!
1699. geepy86
I guess we can babble to jason.
1700. Grothar
Quoting gordydunnot:
Warning blog police have arrived from an orderly line an evacuate. It's for your own safety.
look like all the heavy rain is slowing down..look like the northeast will not get lots of rain maybe the rain will north of the northeast coast line.
Quoting geepy86:
darn


I know...What was your favorite song back in the day?
1703. Bielle
Quoting geepy86:
Didn't see the post.


#1638
1704. geepy86
Quoting traumaboyy:


Whoa!!....like three of em.....Drinks are on ME!!
sorry, kinda got my own. Maybe next time?
On a weather note I got 5.5 inches of rain from nicole.
1705. xcool
jasoniscoolman2011xz you better run Tornado ..
1706. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
Sorry Jed.....

:(

I'll say goodnight....

Me too!
It was fun. Thanks for the Laffs, you all.

Some intriguing stuff to consider in the daylight, with this storm out there.
Right now, sky is clear and bright.
I would have lost $$$ had I bet on that, considering what the thing looked like earlier today (yesterday, actually)
Quoting NRAamy:
Sorry Jed.....

:(

I'll say goodnight....



Sorry to be the kill joy, but somebody has to stand for whats right!

I'm not here to hate, correction is care, not hate folks!
1708. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Crap….I’ll be up till the 2:00 am. TWO.


There is also a TWO at 5 another TWO at 8. I am so confused.
I might as well wait up for the 2 am TWO as well. It's hard for me to imagine such a big system organizing quickly. Although I suppose it's possible that a small part of it could spin up.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Warning blog police have arrived from an orderly line an evacuate. It's for your own safety.



hey man, you're a real mature feller now aren't ya?
Quoting geepy86:
sorry, kinda got my own. Maybe next time?
On a weather note I got 5.5 inches of rain from nicole.


That's a lot of water!!

Drink one for me....at work....darn rules :(
1712. geepy86
good times , see ya'll later.
the rain is going north..its going to miss boston
1714. Bielle
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know...What was your favorite song back in the day?


Stones: I Can't Get No
1715. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


There is also a TWO at 5 another TWO at 8. I am so confused.

The TWO @ 2 is the REAL one.
The others are Imposters.

Night all...........
1716. geepy86
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know...What was your favorite song back in the day?
I was a seager fan.
Quoting Grothar:


There is also a TWO at 5 another TWO at 8. I am so confused.


To say the least!
1718. Grothar
Quoting Bordonaro:

There are 3 tropical waves combining into one system, that is an awesome question!!


I guess Fujiwhara never saw this scenario, they may have to name this the Fuji-fujiwhara.
Quoting pottery:

Me too!
It was fun. Thanks for the Laffs, you all.

Some intriguing stuff to consider in the daylight, with this storm out there.
Right now, sky is clear and bright.
I would have lost $$$ had I bet on that, considering what the thing looked like earlier today (yesterday, actually)


Hope it stays that way for ya man!!

Night!!
1720. geepy86
What is a two?
Hey I'm out to. Jed just trying to tell you. Granny.s getting upset.
Tropical Weather Outlook
1723. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know...What was your favorite song back in the day?


You have "In The Wee Small Hours of the Morning", from Sleepless in Seattle. appropriate for this time, since most will be here for the TWO at 2.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I might as well wait up for the 2 am TWO as well. It's hard for me to imagine such a big system organizing quickly. Although I suppose it's possible that a small part of it could spin up.



I agree, the only thing is, I'm, questioning whether the hurricane threat may be over with almost winter like OMEGA blocking pattern domination the weather down here in Florida.

Yes I believe there may be more tropical cyclones, but with this pattern taking shape, its gonna coll SST's in the gulf and the waters throughout the coastal southeast U.S. I just can't imagine anything worse then tropical storms or hybrids making landfall in the U.S. from here on out.


I could be wrong, but just my gut feeling combined with meteorological studies suggest the threat for dangerous tropical cyclones is over mostly. But you can never say never, just saying it looks at lot less likely from here on out.
Quoting Grothar:


I guess Fujiwhara never saw this scenario, they may have to name this the Fuji-fujiwhara.
someone had to much beer tonight..its time go go to bed now.
1728. hu2007
Link can somebody explain too me why we have a developing system in my neirboor? thanks
1729. geepy86
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


LOL
1732. Grothar
The center fix is old on this. Will be interesting to see where they might relocate it.

Jedkins, is the PWAT for the tropical Atlantic as a whole above normal?
How much heat does a system like 97L exchange from the sea to the atmosphere, compared to a normal hurricane?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Jedkins, is the PWAT for the tropical Atlantic as a whole above normal?


I don't really know, I haven't checked any statistics on that, I'm not sure where I could get a hold of that kind of information not being an actual meteorologist yet.

I would tend to think that's true as far as the deeper tropics, but the northern half has been very dry, which isn't very unusual but still.

All I know is the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico (including Florida and the rest of gulf coast) Central America, and northern South America, have had extremely high PW Values through most of the hurricane season, although it is common for very high moisture in the tropics, it does seem it has been above normal.

The one inhibiting factor has been persistent unusually warm air aloft, which again, relatively warm air aloft in the tropics and sub tropics is normal, it allows a higher moisture content to persist, and thus heavier rain. But the warm air aloft has been much stronger then usual here in Florida as well as much of the tropics. This is why we have had unusually low amounts of lightning and severe weather in Florida, and in turn so much warm, air aloft leads to stability and thus less rain despite such high PW's.


This is also why weak systems have really struggled all hurricane season. Must explosive intensity hasn't occurred till tropical systems have surpassed category 1 strength, overcoming the stabilizing effects of unusually warm air aloft.
1736. xcool
NEW GFS SEEMS TO BE FINALLY CATCHING ON THE ECMWF IDEA OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE OH VLY/APLCHNS BY MON/TUE. THE NEW CANADIAN CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF/ECENS FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS...IN FACT IT
CLOSES OFF ITS UPPER LOW EVEN FARTHER W THAN CONSENSUS OF THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN CONSENSUS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. A COOL RAIN EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CONNECTION WITH THE ERN CLOSED UPPER LOW.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT SYS...BUT
TOTALS WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE CURRENT HEAVY RAIN EVEN
AFFECTING THE ERN SEABOARD STATES.
1737. xcool
The NOGAPS and GFS are playing catchup regarding the upper pattern in North America - they are both too weak and too far east with the cutoff low over the eastern US by early-mid next week. The ECMWF and Canadian both have a much better handle. I don't think 97L is a certain recurve, but it's unlikely to affect any areas west of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, Bermuda and Nova Scotia. The upper pattern bears little resemblance to the one during Hurricane Kate

by jconsor Professional-Met


www.storm2k.org
1738. Grothar
000
ABNT20 KNHC 010547
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...






FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO TROPICAL WAVES...EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY BE FORMING NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FYI, B&C posted a private chat you had!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I might as well wait up for the 2 am TWO as well. It's hard for me to imagine such a big system organizing quickly. Although I suppose it's possible that a small part of it could spin up.
1740. JRRP
40%
1741. Grothar
I posted the TWO at 2, we can all go to bed now.
1742. geepy86
Quoting swflurker:
FYI, B&C posted a private chat you had!
B&C posted every blog on WU. Old news.
1743. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:
I posted the TWO at 2, we can all go to bed now.


Amen!
I'm off, night all! :]
Quoting xcool:
The NOGAPS and GFS are playing catchup regarding the upper pattern in North America - they are both too weak and too far east with the cutoff low over the eastern US by early-mid next week. The ECMWF and Canadian both have a much better handle. I don't think 97L is a certain recurve, but it's unlikely to affect any areas west of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, Bermuda and Nova Scotia. The upper pattern bears little resemblance to the one during Hurricane Kate

by jconsor Professional-Met


www.storm2k.org


+100

Good....Kate was my first Hurricane.....Long Scary night!!
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
the rain is going north..its going to miss boston



Have you got a lot of rain in East Haven yet, Jason?
That convection just off the northeast coast of Honduras has a current pressure of at least 1008 mb.

Interesting, as its obviously under high pressure .... and growing in size.

1748. JLPR2
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
A little bed-time music:



Hey I was talking to my mom about that song today! XD
Now I'm really off, LOL!
Short and sweet...what is your point Bread?
1752. JRRP
GN
He believes what he believes. Period... And you believe what you believe. Period. Posting private e-mails is not the way to go.
All i see in the Atlantic is a big mess. You would think we would have seen a decent cane in the GOM or Caribbean by now. All this huge mass of spread out energy that will never bundle into anything significant seems to be the pattern now. I think we mainly see weak depressions and some moderate tropical storms here on out.
Quoting robert88:
All i see in the Atlantic is a big mess. You would think we would have seen a decent cane in the GOM or Caribbean by now. All this huge mass of spread out energy that will never bundle into anything significant seems to be the pattern now. I think we mainly see weak depressions and some moderate tropical storms here on out.


Based on what?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Based on what?


Mornin Kori!
Looks like a huge monsoon trough like you would see in the Indian Ocean.

""

Quoting traumaboyy:


Mornin Kori!


Good morning!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Good morning!


Enjoying the weather over there man.....it sure is nice here!!
Quoting traumaboyy:


Enjoying the weather over there man.....it sure is nice here!!


Blah. Speak for yourself. :P
All this heat and energy has to go somewhere but it doesn't mean the end results have to be hurricanes. I see a bunch of Matthew's and Nicole's in the making. Nothing more. JMO
Quoting robert88:
All this heat and energy has to go somewhere but it doesn't mean the end results have to be hurricanes. I see a bunch of Matthew's and Nicole's in the making. Nothing more. JMO


Yes, but why? Based on what? I am not bashing you, and I respect you as a poster. But you need to provide evidence for your claims.

Think of this as a friendly challenge from me to you.
1766. jonelu
It seems to me that "Nicole" did her job a pulled alot of the moisture north. We have alot of dry air in the GOM and there is a couple potential systems that will have to look out for. Plus the natural tendency for recurvature is possible as stronger fronts move further south as fall kicks in. There is still alot of moisture and heat in the Caribbean...but it may be distributed slowely rather than thru a big system since we are moving into a less favorable time of yr for tropical systems...Lets see how it pans out. But Im feeling its less likely FL or the eastern GOM is going to see anything major by year end...seems like every system to come thru hasnt managed to get it together...nicole is a perfect example. Its less likely that will happen as the fall pattern kicks in IMO
I just don't think all this energy will ever be able to bundle into anything significant. It was a large envelope to begin with and it is hard for a system this big to consolidate unless it has really good conditions. It has been right on the heels of the wave in front of it which isn't a good thing too. I just don't see 97L ever getting to a hurricane. If i had to guess i would say a 40-50 mph TS at this point. This won't help matters if it makes it further W and tries to pull a Ivan or Nicole. Look at that extreme shear making it all the way down to the NW Caribbean and Bahamas. Link

97L

New "blob" in the Western Caribbean Sea
1769. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS WILL
DRIFT E AND EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO WESTERN PANAMA BY EARLY
SUN AND BECOME STATIONARY. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH
NEAR 19N79W THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN CUBA SUN, ANOTHER
LOW...POSSIBLY A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE...MAY FORM ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS FRI NIGHT AND SAT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NE
CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE.
..............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS.

Quoting robert88:
All i see in the Atlantic is a big mess. You would think we would have seen a decent cane in the GOM or Caribbean by now. All this huge mass of spread out energy that will never bundle into anything significant seems to be the pattern now. I think we mainly see weak depressions and some moderate tropical storms here on out.
Quoting robert88:
All this heat and energy has to go somewhere but it doesn't mean the end results have to be hurricanes. I see a bunch of Matthew's and Nicole's in the making. Nothing more. JMO
Quoting robert88:
I just don't think all this energy will ever be able to bundle into anything significant. It was a large envelope to begin with and it is hard for a system this big to consolidate unless it has really good conditions. It has been right on the heels of the wave in front of it which isn't a good thing too. I just don't see 97L ever getting to a hurricane. If i had to guess i would say a 40-50 mph TS at this point. This won't help matters if it makes it further W and tries to pull a Ivan or Nicole. Look at that extreme shear making it all the way down to the NW Caribbean and Bahamas. Link

Like everyone else on here, you're certainly entitled to your own beliefs. But out of curiosity, what is it you're seeing that's causing you to make such conjectures? Remember, an opinion based on "feeling" alone isn't a forecast; it's a guess--and there's a huge difference between the two. Too, one shouldn't make the mistake of simply extrapolating current conditions and assuming that's how it'll be from here on out; while there are hostile conditions in some areas at the moment, that doesn't mean those hostile conditions will exist in two days, or two weeks, or a month.

Here's the deal: there are exactly two months left in the 2010 season, and another possibly slightly active month after that. All indications are that we'll see anywhere from a bare minimum of three or four more named storms to as many as nine or ten more. Either way, things are far from over. Yes, it's October...but if you've followed tropical weather for any length of time, you know that this month has produced some of the most damaging/deadly storms ever, eespecially in the GOM/Caribbean. It's far too early to call it a day...
Quoting BreadandCircuses:


Love them. RIP The Rev.

Anyway that is the biggest orange circle I've ever seen..
FCST FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON WHAT
BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WX DOES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM AND
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH OF PR NEXT WEEK WITH SYSTEM RECURVING LATER IN
THE WEEK AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP INTO THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
SHOWS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN STARTING MON THAT LASTS
THRU THU NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT IN HAZARDOUS
WX OUTLOOK AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE
TO ITS PROLONGED NATURE.

This was part of the PR DISCUSSION
Can anyone here post a radar image from Wales?
Good morning, everyone. Our temps aren't as cool as the last few days, back up to 70 degrees. But I like 70 better than 60. And it's Friday!
Slow morning, looks like people are sleeping in. What is the opinion on what 97L will do?
The season is OVER for the Northern Gulf Coast as far as any major landfalling storms. With fronts forecasted thru mid Oct there is a low chance of anything sneaking through. I can't see a pattern change like so many predicted which failed to materialize all season. This season will go down as a mild one as far as impact on the CONUS.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
The season is OVER for the Northern Gulf Coast as far as any major landfalling storms. With fronts forecasted thru mid Oct there is a low chance of anything sneaking through. I can't see a pattern change like so many predicted which failed to materialize all season. This season will go down as a mild one as far as impact on the CONUS.


I'd be very happy with this. I think most of us have been very blessed this year.
1778. bjdsrq
Quoting Neapolitan:
Like everyone else on here, you're certainly entitled to your own beliefs. But out of curiosity, what is it you're seeing that's causing you to make such conjectures? Remember, an opinion based on "feeling" alone isn't a forecast; it's a guess--and there's a huge difference between the two. Too, one shouldn't make the mistake of simply extrapolating current conditions and assuming that's how it'll be from here on out; while there are hostile conditions in some areas at the moment, that doesn't mean those hostile conditions will exist in two days, or two weeks, or a month.

Here's the deal: there are exactly two months left in the 2010 season, and another possibly slightly active month after that. All indications are that we'll see anywhere from a bare minimum of three or four more named storms to as many as nine or ten more. Either way, things are far from over. Yes, it's October...but if you've followed tropical weather for any length of time, you know that this month has produced some of the most damaging/deadly storms ever, eespecially in the GOM/Caribbean. It's far too early to call it a day...


Most all the pro forecast said the season would be late to start. It didn't exactly say late to end, but we'll see. If you look at the histogram of storm frequency over the last 150 years, there is a local max in mid October. Those are usually all GOM and Carib storms.
1779. IKE
I was just looking at 2005 on this date....only 4 more named storms in 2005 vs. this year.

Main difference...Cindy...Dennis...Katrina...Rita impacted the lower 48 by Oct. 1st. All hurricanes...most, major canes.

Quite a difference. It has been a mild season for the lower 48 in 2010.
What someone 'thinks' about the season being over has no impact on the weather whatsoever.
amen ike i wish someone would post a major hurricane hitting the northern gulf coast after oct 5. dont say juan or kate they were not majors.the pattern change for the conus did not happen.Not lowering the importance that mexico and the islands had it rough I stated months ago that thier could be 30 storms but if none hit the conus it would be a dud year for the conus.neutral years are our worst for the conus.levi may want to go back and study why his and storms pattern change did not happen.have anice day.
1783. hydrus
Quoting Chicklit:
What someone 'thinks' about the season being over has no impact on the weather whatsoever.
Good morning Chicklit..Check this out. There is high pressure building in to the north of 97L and the trough is lifting out...Link
1784. hydrus
You can see it on the MIMIC-TPW loop too....Link
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Chicklit..Check this out. There is high pressure building in to the north of 97L and the trough is lifting out...Link


That one really shows the high pressure coming down very well.
Hi hydrus, shear map looks favorable.
1788. hydrus
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi hydrus, shear map looks favorable.
If the high continues to build in like that, 97L might get wedged under the southern edge. This could cause it to organize faster. It does look chaotic out there...
Given current pressure systems, is it likely that 97L (if it dos develop) will recurve or is this one the storm that will threaten Florida?
1790. hydrus
Quoting aislinnpaps:


That one really shows the high pressure coming down very well.
I am wondering how strong the high will be with the trough moving out so fast... Three waves over Africa. Notice how far south the two waves are compared to the one near the coast...The model are latching on to one of them and develops it....
You can see the trough lifting out down the line in this view Link

And that high sits there.
Again, it's all about timing.
There's quite a bit of shear to the north of 97L but if the high establishes and the anticyclone is able to fix on the low pressure center, then something could happen.
Lotta if's huh?
Quoting IKE:
I was just looking at 2005 on this date....only 4 more named storms in 2005 vs. this year.

Main difference...Cindy...Dennis...Katrina...Rita impacted the lower 48 by Oct. 1st. All hurricanes...most, major canes.

Quite a difference. It has been a mild season for the lower 48 in 2010.


Sure has. Numbers don't mean jack, do they?
Quoting HurricaneKarl:
Given current pressure systems, is it likely that 97L (if it dos develop) will recurve or is this one the storm that will threaten Florida?


If it develops the current steering flow would threaten the NE Caribbean. After that it should be steered the the N the NE out to sea.
1794. IKE
Quoting NotCircumventing:


Sure has. Numbers don't mean jack, do they?


No...not really. I predicted 13-7-4 for 2010. I'm too low. I'm not making a numbers prediction anymore after this season. Numbers don't matter. It's impacts.


Quoting HurricaneKarl:
Given current pressure systems, is it likely that 97L (if it dos develop) will recurve or is this one the storm that will threaten Florida?



Here's the 144 shear map from the GFS. GOM and Florida looks protected...

Here's another good one. Link

Nice burst coming off of Honduras.
1796. lhwhelk
Quoting SouthFMY:
Can anyone here post a radar image from Wales?
Why? Is there some kind of weather situation going on in Wales?
Quoting hydrus:
I am wondering how strong the high will be with the trough moving out so fast... Three waves over Africa. Notice how far south the two waves are compared to the one near the coast...The model are latching on to one of them and develops it....


Amazing that this late in the season we still have waves coming off Africa that have the possibility to develop. It will be fun to watch it/they as long as they stay out to sea.
Quoting lhwhelk:
Why? Is there some kind of weather situation going on in Wales?

Ryder Cup golf starts today in Wales.
Americans against Europeans.
1799. IKE
I was watching the Ryder Cup earlier this morning. They were squeezing ponds of water off of the greens so the players could putt. Seems rather silly to even be playing in those conditions.
Quoting lhwhelk:
Why? Is there some kind of weather situation going on in Wales?


Morning lhwhelk! Lovely weather this morning for both of us.
1801. IKE
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
357 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2010

VALID 12Z TUE OCT 05 2010 - 12Z FRI OCT 08 2010

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD IN DEVELOPING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MAINTAINING A QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP CYCLONE
OVER/NEAR CALIFORNIA. THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE CLOSE TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS...SO CHOSE TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THEM
FOR THE PRESSURES AND 500 HPA HEIGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z
CANADIAN COULD NOT BE USED DUE TO ITS RECURVING HURRICANE-LIKE
VORTEX JUST OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE 16Z CONFERENCE CALL BETWEEN HPC AND NHC AGREED NOT
TO RECURVE THIS FEATURE...WHICH FITS THE 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WHICH TRACKS IT SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREATER ANTILLES.

ROTH
71 Degrees in Fort Lauderdale this AM.......Finally!
1803. hydrus
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Amazing that this late in the season we still have waves coming off Africa that have the possibility to develop. It will be fun to watch it/they as long as they stay out to sea.
The GEM model has a major hurricane north of the Central Bahamas in about a week...Link
1804. lhwhelk
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Morning lhwhelk! Lovely weather this morning for both of us.
I am reminded of the rabbi's prayer in Fiddler on the Roof: "God bless and keep the Czar--far away from us!" It's interesting to follow the progress of hurricanes, but best not to have them hitting anyone. This has been a good year for us; wish it had been equally good for all.
1805. BigToe
http://www.sat24.com/gb

This is why they're having trouble getting the Ryder Cup in. Oh, Good morning
Have to run, just looked at the clock. Have a great Friday everyone!!
1807. IKE


Season 2010 - GOES East Animation: June - July

This GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animation is a long loop that shows all of June and July 2010. This video features Hurricane Alex, which blew up quickly and torched the Mexico Gulf coast and well inland! Also shown is Tropical Storm Bonnie, which could not quite get it together. This video features the music of Gustav Holtz's symphony - "The Planets."



Season 2010 - GOES East Animation: August - September

This GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animation is a long loop that shows all of August and September 2010. This video features a slew of tropical storms and hurricanes, none of which made official landfall along the U.S. coastline. How many can you correctly identify? This is one killer video you will want to see again and again. This video features the music of Gustav Holtz's symphony - "The Planets."

1809. Patrap
Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 46 sec ago
Clear
71.3 °F
Clear
Humidity: 61%
Dew Point: 57 °F
Wind: 4.3 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 8.1 mph
Pressure: 29.94 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 76 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 9.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Quoting hydrus:
The GEM model has a major hurricane north of the Central Bahamas in about a week...Link


Any other reliable model in agreement?
1812. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Quoting hydrus:
The GEM model has a major hurricane north of the Central Bahamas in about a week...Link
Mornin' Hydrus

I do see that. You think that's going to be a threat to the SE CONUS or Mid-Atlantic down the road...?
1. A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO TROPICAL WAVES...EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY BE FORMING NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
This was an ABSOLUTE deluge.

1816. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Good morning and happy Friday to you all.

We are having our SE Florida version of "Fall" today, our lows this morning in the low 70's (that is actually more winter like than fall)...and high expected in mid 80's!

wonder how long it will last????

I guess we can give it a rest for a few days before watching again.

Happy October 1st.
WOW INVEST 97L WAY DOWN TO THE SOUTH...!!!!!!
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...
Mornin' & Happy Friday
Hey guys I think a low is forming near the NE coast of Honduras
1823. WxLogic
Appars 97L is having a hard time organizing... even though there's an anti-cyclone above it and no SAL to speak about:



Low level convergence is meager at best for now, but still has a good upper level divergence still thanks to the departing ULL to its NW.

If 97L is able to sustain itself without the help of the ULL to its NW then it might have chance. At least we can say that low/mid level vorticity have remain fairly stacked.

850MB VORT:


500MB VORT:



Finally, GFS appears to be doing good so far as ECMWF is starting to back off little by little from developing this feature and only leaving CMC (strongest & east) and NOGAPS (weakest & west) attempting to develop this system and moving it into the Bahamas region.
1825. Gearsts
Is not ther thats wrong.Should be where the vort is.


Pretty wet, system supposed to deepen to 950s in millibars. Another one behind it by the start of next week. October starts.

Anyone want an inch or so of rain?

Gotta love omega block/pattern regimes (though it seems like it'll weaken soon).
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys I think a low is forming near the NE coast of Honduras
Well the NHC has it as a 10% chance of developing into anything.



I really don't see it becoming much of anything though, even despite the relatively low shear that currently in it's environment.

1828. shfr173
Is that the remnent of Mathew?
Quoting WxLogic:
Appars 97L is having a hard time organizing... even though there's an anti-cyclone above it and no SAL to speak about:



Low level convergence is meager at best for now, but still has a good upper level divergence still thanks to the departing ULL to its NW.

If 97L is able to sustain itself without the help of the ULL to its NW then it might have chance. At least we can say that low/mid level vorticity have remain fairly stacked.

850MB VORT:


500MB VORT:



Finally, GFS appears to be doing good so far as ECMWF is starting to back off little by little from developing this feature and only leaving CMC (strongest & east) and NOGAPS (weakest & west) attempting to develop this system and moving it into the Bahamas region.
Yeah, the 850mb Vort looks really good. But the overall upper-level environmental conditions only look marginally favorable...at the moment. It does have factors limiting it's development as you mentioned.
Ike,

good morning. it seems like the dots are more in octants 3 and 4. does this mean more chance of recurves?
This was just ONE day

Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yeah, the 850mb Vort looks really good. But the overall upper-level environmental conditions only look marginally favorable...at the moment. It does have factors limiting it's development as you mentioned.


The complete scenario, no passion Agree 100%
1833. IKE
Quoting kshipre1:
Ike,

good morning. it seems like the dots are more in octants 3 and 4. does this mean more chance of recurves?


Not sure it means that, but the upward MJO looks headed toward the western PAC, IF those charts verify.
Quoting WxLogic:
Appars 97L is having a hard time organizing... even though there's an anti-cyclone above it and no SAL to speak about:



Low level convergence is meager at best for now, but still has a good upper level divergence still thanks to the departing ULL to its NW.

If 97L is able to sustain itself without the help of the ULL to its NW then it might have chance. At least we can say that low/mid level vorticity have remain fairly stacked.

850MB VORT:


500MB VORT:



Finally, GFS appears to be doing good so far as ECMWF is starting to back off little by little from developing this feature and only leaving CMC (strongest & east) and NOGAPS (weakest & west) attempting to develop this system and moving it into the Bahamas region.


Agree 100% this is the hole scenario,

Quoting Chicklit:
What someone 'thinks' about the season being over has no impact on the weather whatsoever.


By the same token.
What someone 'thinks' about the season has no impact on the weather whatsoever.
Good Morning.......That ULL centered over Bermuda is probably keeping 97L in check for the time being but it continues to retro-grade out to the NW. Once it gets out of the way over the the next 24 hours, 97L might have a better chance of development if it can generate some convection which has diminished since yesterday IMHO.
thanks. if the MJO is headed up in the western pacific, what does that mean for the SW Atlantic, Caribean and GOM?
The season at a glance:

1) In the early part of the season, many disbelieving the experts pooh-poohed the talk of a very active/hyperactive season, and swore the overall numbers would be low.

2) As the early part of the season wore on, many of the same naysayers began speaking triumphantly that they were right and the experts were wrong; there was no way so many storms could possibly form in the remaining time.

3) When things finally started to happen--with a vengeance--near the end of August, the naysayers/downcasters predicted there simply wasn't enough time left in the season for the numbers to grow to meet pre-season expectations.

4) Now that the numbers have rapidly grown, and it appears many/most of the expert pre-season predictions for overall activity will be met or exceeded, the naysayers say either, "Nah, the season's over", or "Overall numbers don't mean anything, anyway; it's all about impact on the CONUS". While the former statement doesn't have a bit of science behind it, the latter myopically and xenophobically assumes that deadly impacts in Mexico and elsewhere somehow "don't count".

5) When a storm does have impact on the CONUS--Alex, TD2, Bonnie, TD5, Hermine, ex-Nicole--The Negative Ones say those storms don't count either, because they weren't on a par with Andrew or Katrina so far as devastation goes.

So...when the season is over and done, and the count stands as high as 20/12/6, the naysayers will be still be standing on the sidelines shouting, "BUST!!" simply because--it is hoped, though not yet guaranteed--no mid- or large-sized CONUS cities were utterly destroyed. Well, sorry. I suppose for those whose only measures for the success or failure of a particular hurricane season are a) corpse counts and b) damage amounts, 2010 may--again, I hope--go down as a bust for the CONUS. But for others who like watching and studying tropical weather, this remarkable season has been anything but...and there's a whole lot of it left.
1841. surfmom
Good Morning - I'm Blissfully WAVE beaten this morning, yesterday thanks to that NNW wind in SWFL/SRQ - it was a DAY of WAVE

CycloneBOZ post 1808 - Lovely!!! & thx for sharing : ) What a wonderful way to wake up!! sure beats reading the newspaper. The music combined with the beauty of nature -- ahhhh - what a wondrous thing life, our earth and weather is!!
hmmmmmm,whats up boz-worth????,plan on chasing 97l when it hits nc as a major in about 8-9days????
1840. Neapolitan 8:26 AM EDT on October 01, 2010

Nice comments....The active season certianly panned out as predicted but the "tracks" leading to Florida and Gulf have not.....It's an intellectual exercize to analize the pre-season conditions and to see how close you can get to your estimates but at the end of the day, the most salient factor is whether a major impacts a populated region.....It's not about the numbers and the US has been very lucky this year in terms of the Cape Verde season.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The season at a glance:

1) In the early part of the season, many disbelieving the experts pooh-poohed the talk of a very active/hyperactive season, and swore the overall numbers would be low.

2) As the early part of the season wore on, many of the same naysayers began speaking triumphantly that they were right and the experts were wrong; there was no way so many storms could possibly form in the remaining time.

3) When things finally started to happen--with a vengeance--near the end of August, the naysayers/downcasters predicted there simply wasn't enough time left in the season for the numbers to grow to meet pre-season expectations.

4) Now that the numbers have rapidly grown, and it appears many/most of the expert pre-season predictions for overall activity will be met or exceeded, the naysayers say either, "Nah, the season's over", or "Overall numbers don't mean anything, anyway; it's all about impact on the CONUS". While the former statement doesn't have a bit of science behind it, the latter myopically and xenophobically assumes that deadly impacts in Mexico and elsewhere somehow "don't count".

5) When a storm does have impact on the CONUS--Alex, TD2, Bonnie, TD5, Hermine, ex-Nicole--The Negative Ones say those storms don't count either, because they weren't on a par with Andrew or Katrina so far as devastation goes.

So...when the season is over and done, and the count stands as high as 20/12/6, the naysayers will be still be standing on the sidelines shouting, "BUST!!" simply because--it is hoped, though not yet guaranteed--no mid- or large-sized CONUS cities were utterly destroyed. Well, sorry. I suppose for those whose only measure for the success or failure of a particular hurricane season is a) corpse counts and b) damage amounts, 2010 may--again, I hope--go down as a bust for the CONUS. But for others who like watching and studying tropical weather, this remarkable season has been anything but...and there's a whole lot of it left.



i find this synaptic viewpoint to be genuinely insightful amidst the chaos i see happening between people (and their opinions) on a daily basis in this blog.
1846. surfmom
Neapolitan --whooo Nelly-- I'm in agreement w/you, Lordy you have your thinking & philosophy & human behavior observation hat on early this morning... no wonder you're holding your head.

Good points - IMHO
Quoting Neapolitan:
The season at a glance:

1) In the early part of the season, many disbelieving the experts pooh-poohed the talk of a very active/hyperactive season, and swore the overall numbers would be low.

2) As the early part of the season wore on, many of the same naysayers began speaking triumphantly that they were right and the experts were wrong; there was no way so many storms could possibly form in the remaining time.

3) When things finally started to happen--with a vengeance--near the end of August, the naysayers/downcasters predicted there simply wasn't enough time left in the season for the numbers to grow to meet pre-season expectations.

4) Now that the numbers have rapidly grown, and it appears many/most of the expert pre-season predictions for overall activity will be met or exceeded, the naysayers say either, "Nah, the season's over", or "Overall numbers don't mean anything, anyway; it's all about impact on the CONUS". While the former statement doesn't have a bit of science behind it, the latter myopically and xenophobically assumes that deadly impacts in Mexico and elsewhere somehow "don't count".

5) When a storm does have impact on the CONUS--Alex, TD2, Bonnie, TD5, Hermine, ex-Nicole--The Negative Ones say those storms don't count either, because they weren't on a par with Andrew or Katrina so far as devastation goes.

So...when the season is over and done, and the count stands as high as 20/12/6, the naysayers will be still be standing on the sidelines shouting, "BUST!!" simply because--it is hoped, though not yet guaranteed--no mid- or large-sized CONUS cities were utterly destroyed. Well, sorry. I suppose for those whose only measure for the success or failure of a particular hurricane season is a) corpse counts and b) damage amounts, 2010 may--again, I hope--go down as a bust for the CONUS. But for others who like watching and studying tropical weather, this remarkable season has been anything but...and there's a whole lot of it left.
Well put. Good perspective.
1848. surfmom
Quoting stillwaiting:
hmmmmmm,whats up boz-worth????,plan on chasing 97l when it hits nc as a major in about 8-9days????
hey Dude - no fishing for you yesterday - surfed siesta from 8:30 till @ noon - then winds really picked up and headed to Turtle till 5:30 - what do you see out your window this morning.......?
The AOI centered at 48.5W 15N
ASCAT last night caught some circulation
The convection and cloud cover is organizing well on All Sat Channels.
Shear is 5-10 at the moment
No Dry air
TD by this evening and TS by morning.
I'm going with a west then north track due to the ULL just to the NW and the Trough off the East coast but where all that will occur depends on development.
Regardless us in the Northern Islands most likely need to get ready over the weekend.
http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/ascat_ear_25_prod/ascat_app.cgi?cmd=showimage&ascending=yes&day=0& flag=no&coord.x=195&coord.y=182
Quoting surfmom:
Neapolitan --whooo Nelly-- I'm in agreement w/you, Lordy you have your thinking & philosophy & human behavior observation hat on early this morning... no wonder you're holding your head.

Good points - IMHO


Morning Mom...I agree. Nea is a very smart guy. His avatar reminds me of Kreskin :)
Thanks Neapolitan, that sums it up nicely.
I woke up shivering this morning, looking for my blanket. It got down in the very low 60's last night here in PC. I noticed they have us hitting 50's in a few days...Sheesh from blazing hot Summer to Winter in one week.
1855. HCW
#1840 Nea, nice job there!

I agree.... :o)
The season may not be a bust... but the day sure is. I got up way to early to watch the European Team lay a whoppin on the opposition.. and its rained out :(
1858. kwgirl
Good Morning all. Well I never thought I would see that front push through the Keys. I believe this is the earliest in the year to see dry air down here. It actually feels like fall, a month early!!!
1859. surfmom
Aloha Geoff! Cot.,IKE, ChicklIt & all weather watchers this Friday morning (thanks Gamms - woke up not know what day it was.

For those who ride waves - this was a nice overview of the season from a Surfer's Perspective here in SWFL.

One thing I always like to note, b/4 lurking, then posting here I look at 'canes w/ a most narrow mind -- I had NO AWARENESS nor did I consider the plight of folks getting slammed by this force of nature -- all I thought about was getting waves..... my consciousness was raised & my self-centered thinking radically changed as I watched and learned in REAL TIME how folks can be horribly impacted by 'CANES.... Education is always of value to society and the community - but you have to have your MIND OPEN to allow new thinking in.

AURASURF - M.WEAVER - Summer surf season review
Glad everyone got some fun ones yesterday. Do you think it was fun because the sandbars are so piled up from not being used? Or is everyone just so happy to surf after the last 5 months we have had? Going back we had 1 good south swell at the beginning of May that lasted a couple days. That was the last of the continental storms before the doldrums set in so most of May after the first week was flat, June? Completely flat. July? 1 three hour swell from Alex, if you blinked you missed it. August we had TD 5 which was fun on the heels of Colin on the EC. Then the back to school windswell. Then for September we had good swell on the EC to start the month but totally flat on the GC until the last day of September. Hopefully you were able to get away to centro or something. That makes a handful of days for the entire summer on the back of a freezing cold, worthless winter. 2010 has been so brutal for us. Hopefully better patterns are ahead.
The heat is not supposed to return as we stay in N and NE flow for the next week or so. Our only other shot at waves is a slight chance for a knee to thigh bump at N County late, late Sunday as winds gust from the N for a bit. Otherwise WFL stays 1ft N line, flat or less. The WX should be extremely nice so get out and enjoy it! Happy October!
Quoting Orcasystems:
The season may not be a bust... but the day sure is. I got up way to early to watch the European Team lay a whoppin on the opposition.. and its rained out :(


washed out for the whole day? or just delayed?

Why are you rooting for the Europeans? You're much closer to America! :o)
Quoting Orcasystems:
The season may not be a bust... but the day sure is. I got up way to early to watch the European Team lay a whoppin on the opposition.. and its rained out :(


Outlook doesn't look good. It's going to be wet here for days. Tomorrow might be alright, but Sunday apparently won't be.

(Hosting fair weather events past the end of September here makes no sense to me).
1862. tkeith
Quoting Orcasystems:
The season may not be a bust... but the day sure is. I got up way to early to watch the European Team lay a whoppin on the opposition.. and its rained out :(
only a minor setback...

USA!
1863. tkeith
Oh, BTW...Happy October blog :)
Quoting CycloneBoz:
Season 2010 - GOES East Animation: June - July

This GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animation is a long loop that shows all of June and July 2010. This video features Hurricane Alex, which blew up quickly and torched the Mexico Gulf coast and well inland! Also shown is Tropical Storm Bonnie, which could not quite get it together. This video features the music of Gustav Holtz's symphony - "The Planets."



Season 2010 - GOES East Animation: August - September

This GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animation is a long loop that shows all of August and September 2010. This video features a slew of tropical storms and hurricanes, none of which made official landfall along the U.S. coastline. How many can you correctly identify? This is one killer video you will want to see again and again. This video features the music of Gustav Holtz's symphony - "The Planets."


Very, very cool!
Quoting BobinTampa:


washed out for the whole day? or just delayed?

Why are you rooting for the Europeans? You're much closer to America! :o)


Umm thats one of the reasons :)

Most Canadians... and I would assume most of the Islanders down south will be backing the European Team, because of our background and culture.
so all models still track 97L through the eastern herbert box? or is there an update coming soon in the models?
Quoting kwgirl:
Good Morning all. Well I never thought I would see that front push through the Keys. I believe this is the earliest in the year to see dry air down here. It actually feels like fall, a month early!!!
Mornin'. Well if you have cooler, dry air all the way down there, then I'm really convinced that that was quite a front!
1868. HCW
Are you tired of hitting F5 at advisory time waiting for for updates from the NHC ? If so I have found a way so that you don't have waste your energy reloading a page. It's IEM BOT on Twitter get Instant warnings, storm reports and NHC updates



http://twitter.com/iembot_HGX

This will work in your area also by changing the last 3 letters to your local radar code


If you have any questions feel free to shoot me a WU email . Have a great day James n Mobile
1869. myway
Post 1840

Very well said. +1000000.......
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm thats one of the reasons :)

Most Canadians... and I would assume most of the Islanders down south will be backing the European Team, because of our background and culture.


well then don't complain when we invade. :) did they cancel the rest of the day?
16N 47W ??


Quoting Neapolitan:
The season at a glance:

1) In the early part of the season, many disbelieving the experts pooh-poohed the talk of a very active/hyperactive season, and swore the overall numbers would be low.

2) As the early part of the season wore on, many of the same naysayers began speaking triumphantly that they were right and the experts were wrong; there was no way so many storms could possibly form in the remaining time.

3) When things finally started to happen--with a vengeance--near the end of August, the naysayers/downcasters predicted there simply wasn't enough time left in the season for the numbers to grow to meet pre-season expectations.

4) Now that the numbers have rapidly grown, and it appears many/most of the expert pre-season predictions for overall activity will be met or exceeded, the naysayers say either, "Nah, the season's over", or "Overall numbers don't mean anything, anyway; it's all about impact on the CONUS". While the former statement doesn't have a bit of science behind it, the latter myopically and xenophobically assumes that deadly impacts in Mexico and elsewhere somehow "don't count".

5) When a storm does have impact on the CONUS--Alex, TD2, Bonnie, TD5, Hermine, ex-Nicole--The Negative Ones say those storms don't count either, because they weren't on a par with Andrew or Katrina so far as devastation goes.

So...when the season is over and done, and the count stands as high as 20/12/6, the naysayers will be still be standing on the sidelines shouting, "BUST!!" simply because--it is hoped, though not yet guaranteed--no mid- or large-sized CONUS cities were utterly destroyed. Well, sorry. I suppose for those whose only measures for the success or failure of a particular hurricane season are a) corpse counts and b) damage amounts, 2010 may--again, I hope--go down as a bust for the CONUS. But for others who like watching and studying tropical weather, this remarkable season has been anything but...and there's a whole lot of it left.


I agree to most of that, Nea, except three points:

a.) You know as well as I do that an active September is no guarantee of an active October. It's already one for the record books, no question, but I'd hold the 20 storm prediction as fact for longer, yet.

b.) I'm not aware of who has been stating that this season is a bust for a considerable time. Perhaps as I am not here for the evening shifts as it is called, that I've missed those declarations.

c.) There is always the risk of becoming just as absolute on the argument as the counter side. The discussion on here seems to boil down to 'it's really active!' vs 'it's a bust!' without any thought to the middle.

It is active yes, but how active? Is it really as hyperactive as it looks on face value?
1873. surfmom
Re. the Front, It was fascinating to be "in it" so to speak - paddled out first thing AM - calm just a bit of wave on the water... the hours of transition from calm to a a whole lotta wind (and knowing exactly what was going on) was fascinating -- it's like I could see someone flip the switch -- the change in the water (wave build up & type of wave) was just tooo cool --
The calm placid Gulf really kicked up her heels and danced.
1874. lhwhelk
Quoting Neapolitan:
The season at a glance:
+100
Quoting BobinTampa:


well then don't complain when we invade. :) did they cancel the rest of the day?
Right now it is just delayed, waiting for any break in weather
Quoting BobinTampa:


well then don't complain when we invade. :) did they cancel the rest of the day?


ROFLMAO, you tried that before.. didn't work so well. I think they are waiting to see if the can continue later...
Ryder Cup weather forecast

Detailed Local Forecast
* Today: Periods of rain. High 57F. Winds SSE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
* Tonight: A few clouds. Low 44F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph.
* Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies. High 61F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
* Tomorrow night: Cloudy with occasional rain after midnight. Low around 50F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
* Sunday: Periods of heavy rain. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the low 50s.
* Monday: Cloudy, periods of rain. Highs in the mid 50s and lows in the upper 40s.
* Tuesday: Cloudy, periods of rain. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper 40s.
Work parking lot is a no wake zone :|
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
16N 47W ??


Ummm...could be
25 inches of rain will do major flooding.
No play until 4pm BST (11am EDT) at least or so it has been reported.

(not a golf fan, but thought I'd pass along.)

Cold front should begin to clear from Wales soon.

Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
25 inches of rain will do major flooding.
yes it will

good pic
1884. HCW
Quoting jasoniscoolman2011xz:
25 inches of rain will do major flooding.


We got 30 inches from Hurricane Danny and didn't have any problems back in 1997
Quoting Cotillion:
No play until 4pm BST (11am EDT) at least or so it has been reported.

(not a golf fan, but thought I'd pass along.)

Cold front should begin to clear from Wales soon.



I was watching that... man oh man.. 70% chance of rain sure comes down hard over there.. they must have gotten a few inches.
Oranges beginning to fade away on this map...but beginning to emerge on the Sugar Maples in WI & MI.

A true tell-tale sign of October.

Quoting BobinTampa:


well then don't complain when we invade. :) did they cancel the rest of the day?
Take a trip to Fort Erie and see how that turned out last time US tried.
1889. 7544
morning could we see 98l in the carb. latter today nice blob there is that ex mathew tia ?
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Oranges beginning to fade away on this map...but beginning to emerge on the Sugar Maples in WI & MI.

A true tell-tale sign of October.



Cha-Cha-Cha-Changes
1892. KUEFC
Quoting 7544:
morning could we see 98l in the carb. latter today nice blob there is that ex mathew tia ?


So now people want them to invest every single blob? LOL this place
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
ro a trip to Fort Erie and see how that turned out last time US tried.


Now now.. look at the positive side.. you got a new White House :)
Quoting 7544:
morning could we see 98l in the carb. latter today nice blob there is that ex mathew tia ?


Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm thats one of the reasons :)

Most Canadians... and I would assume most of the Islanders down south will be backing the European Team, because of our background and culture.
background maybe but what culture? ;P~
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Oct. 1st. 2010


excellent job as always. Your August forecast looks pretty spot on. you think we'll still squeeze out a couple more hurricanes?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Cha-Cha-Cha-Changes
A little David Bowie - very nice
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
background maybe but what culture? ;P~


Ummm our Beer :)
Morning All.

97L reminds me of a past storm. One of the many scenarios, CMC has a similar track ATM. I'm not liking that NoGaps track though.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Morning All.

97L reminds me of a past storm. One of the many scenarios, CMC has a similar track ATM. I'm not liking that NoGaps track though.

Ahhh did you have too?!! Enjoying the transquil fall chill in the air before this post. lol Gosh, let's hope not. Floyd was BAD
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Oct. 1st. 2010


Hey Bob, as always very good. Thank you and we will be alert but I am bulllish on 97
Complete Update

97L
- what can you say... at least the models are not showing a CAT 3 anymore like last night.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting Cotillion:


I agree to most of that, Nea, except three points:
Good morning, Cotillion. Good points, yours. Please allow me to respond to them one by one:

a) You know as well as I do that an active September is no guarantee of an active October. It's already one for the record books, no question, but I'd hold the 20 storm prediction as fact for longer, yet.

You are absolutely correct that a busy September doesn't guarantee a busy October. In fact, the opposite could be said, at least for the past 15 seasons: of the two years with eight September storms, one had but a single October storm, and the other had exactly zero. (And the two seasons with seven September storms only managed to squeeze out five named storms in total.) But as has often been pointed out, there are few if any indications that this year is similar to those. To begin with, SSTs are still at or near record highs...and while that alone won't drive cyclogenesis, it certainly helps. Yes, it's possible borderline, short-lived Nicole may have been it for the year. But I am seriously doubting that possibility.

b.) I'm not aware of who has been stating that this season is a bust for a considerable time. Perhaps as I am not here for the evening shifts as it is called, that I've missed those declarations.

I've followed the narrative of the season pretty closely, and am always amused at those--and I see them here every day, including this morning--who consistently narrow their definition of what constitutes a "non-busted season". Originally it was raw storm numbers; that morphed into CONUS hits, which in turn morphed into devastating CONUS hits. IOW, a record busy period, with multiple deaths and billions of dollars in damage outside the US, aren't enough. (Extrapolating, I'd guess that many of these folks would say that only a Cat 4 coming through their own city would be enough to allow them to remove the "bust" label...though even a few might then say, "Yes, the storm hit our city, but the eyewall missed my house, so BUST!!!")

c.) There is always the risk of becoming just as absolute on the argument as the counter side. The discussion on here seems to boil down to 'it's really active!' vs 'it's a bust!' without any thought to the middle.

Well, in this case, the absolutes seem to be on the side of the "active" season folks, don't they? Based on most expert early predictions of a very active to hyperactive year, this season hasn't disappointed. Anyone saying otherwise is simply ignoring fact.

It is active yes, but how active? Is it really as hyperactive as it looks on face value?

I've not commented much on your many postings suggesting that the reason things look so busy these last few decades is due in very large part to pre-satellite undercounts of marginal storms. You may be right (though I also believe there may have been early overcounts, where, say, a CV-type storm noticed in the Windward Islands was counted as a separate entity a week later when it made landfall in Texas)--but even if you are, there's no doubt that the tropics this year, and in 2005, and in 1995, and so on, have been more active than "normal", however one defines that term.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ummm our Beer :)
Ah yes, all is forgiven. Wisers covers for whatever the beer missed.
Awesome ... I logged into Debate Class.
Looks like there is some tight vorticity moving along the north coast of Honduras at 16N 85W
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ahhh did you have too?!! Enjoying the transquil fall chill in the air before this post. lol Gosh, let's hope not. Floyd was BAD



Very refreshing here in SEFL this morning too, almost went in to the office late and hung out at the beach for an hour.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Awesome ... I logged into Debate Class.
Hey it's better than 5:00 pm EST(daylight savings) Troll Central.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Awesome ... I logged into Debate Class.


You're welcome. There's no tuition, though I'm sorry to say no course credit can or will be offered. ;-)
1910. breald
Quoting Neapolitan:


You're welcome. There's no tuition, though I'm sorry to say no course credit can or will be offered. ;-)


LOL.
Yesterday's CMC

As a fellow Canadian, I would have to agree.



Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm thats one of the reasons :)

Most Canadians... and I would assume most of the Islanders down south will be backing the European Team, because of our background and culture.
1913. afj3
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Yesterday's CMC


Is it me or is the CMC overshooting intensity for 97L? Plus it is curving it out in the ocean now....
New Blog
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ryder Cup weather forecast

Detailed Local Forecast
* Today: Periods of rain. High 57F. Winds SSE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
* Tonight: A few clouds. Low 44F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph.
* Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies. High 61F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph.
* Tomorrow night: Cloudy with occasional rain after midnight. Low around 50F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
* Sunday: Periods of heavy rain. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the low 50s.
* Monday: Cloudy, periods of rain. Highs in the mid 50s and lows in the upper 40s.
* Tuesday: Cloudy, periods of rain. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper 40s.


Looks miserable for golf. Bubba Watson looked like a drowned rat this morning.
I would say that an hyperactive season is one with a ACE of 200 or more, with 15 or more storms. And no it does not have to have any cat 5's and no it does not have to hit the US, and no it does not have to cause any deaths.
Just my 2 cents.
Looking at all the forecast charts I cannot see why 97 will not be at least a storm right over me by Mon/Tues but the GFS is still not developing it. Why? Every single forecast chart is positive for development as soon as the ULL moves away and the GFS is forecasting that
Quoting sailingallover:
Looking at all the forecast charts I cannot see why 97 will not be at least a storm right over me by Mon/Tues but the GFS is still not developing it. Why? Every single forecast chart is positive for development as soon as the ULL moves away and the GFS is forecasting that


The forward motion of this storm is very slow. This slow forward motion leaves the ultimate path up for debate.
Huge line of ARC clouds East of 97..
Collapsing thunderstorms...
Maybe the Upper mid level high is Capping it rather than providing outflow?
Quoting MrNatural:


The forward motion of this storm is very slow. This slow forward motion leaves the ultimate path up for debate.
15-20 is not slow
The path is up for debate until/if it develops.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
SST's are warm under 97 but TCHP is not all that high...
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2010273at.jpg
Quoting sailingallover:
15-20 is not slow
The path is up for debate until/if it develops.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.


I guess I could clarify my comments. Invest 97 is expected to slow down. This slow down will have a bearing on development and path. I'm still on the fence if this thing will really develop. The influence of that big ULL will have a major bearing on the future of this storm.
1923. jonelu
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

97L
- what can you say... at least the models are not showing a CAT 3 anymore like last night.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


The models showed a Cat4 or 5 hitting FL for close to a week prior and during Matthew and Nicole...and look at what we got....nada. They have there uses...but I put FAR less credence in them now.