WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook: How Accurate are its Predictions?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:46 PM GMT on July 20, 2013

Every Internet-savvy tropical weather enthusiast is familiar with the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO), which details potential threat areas that might become a tropical cyclone. (Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all tropical cyclones.) The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued four times per day during hurricane season, and beginning in 2010, NHC began issuing 48-hour forecasts of the probability that specific threat areas identified in the TWO could develop into a tropical cyclone. Their Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook now color-codes each threat area depending upon how likely development is expected to be. A yellow circle is drawn for 0%, 10%, and 20% chances; orange for 30%, 40% and 50% chances, and red for 60% and higher odds. For example, the Saturday morning, July 20 TWO gave a 0% chance of development for an area of disturbed weather near the Florida Panhandle (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook for 8am EDT July 20, 2013, showed an area of disturbed weather over the Gulf of Mexico being given a 0% chance of development in 48 hours. In 2012, 8% of all disturbances being given a 0% chance of development actually did develop.

How accurate is NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook?
So the big question is, how good are these forecasts? When NHC gives a 30% chance that an "Invest" will become of tropical cyclone, does this happen 30% of the time? Well, according to the 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, NHC should have drawn fewer yellow circles and more orange circles and red circles during 2012, as there was a tendency to under-predict when a threat area might develop. For example (Figure 2), for the 46 forecasts where a 30% chance of development was given, 50% of the threat areas actually developed. Every disturbance that was given a 70% and higher chance of development ended up developing. This under-prediction tendency in 2012 is in contrast to the results from 2011, when the genesis forecasts were closer to the mark. For example, the 59 forecasts for a 30% chance of development resulted in a 31% "hit" rate of the storm actually developing in 2011. So far in 2013, there seems to be a tendency to under-predict again. For example, 48 hours before Tropical Storm Barry developed, NHC was carrying just a 10% chance of development.




Figure 2. NHC did predictions on new formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm (cyclogenesis) beginning in 2010. The forecasts are expressed in the Tropical Weather Outlook in 10% probability increments, and in terms of categories (“low”, “medium”, or “high”) for a tropical cyclone forming within a 48-hour period. These genesis forecasts had a low (under-forecast) bias in the Atlantic basin during 2012 (top). For example, for cases where a 30% chance of formation was given, the actual percentage of storms that formed was 50%. However, there the 2011 forecasts showed no systematic bias, and were closer to the mark (bottom.)

Expansion of the Tropical Weather Outlook to 5 Days
By August of the 2013 hurricane season, NHC is planning to begin including information about a system’s potential for development during the following five-day period. This will supplement the 48-hour probabilistic formation potential already provided in the Tropical Weather Outlook. NHC is currently developing a corresponding five-day genesis potential graphic that might also be available in 2013.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no other tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today. Saturday morning's 06Z run of the GFS model predicted that a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa on Monday will develop later in the week. None of the other reliable models develop this wave, though the unreliable Canadian (CMC) model also suggests that the wave could develop.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2501. Grothar
This is why there has been confusion as some tried to explain last night. The wave given the circle is very close to the African coast. There is another pouch or feature which emerged a few days ago. This has not been designated yet. But if it hold together, it may be. Although the conditions do not appear that favorable at this time.

Quoting 2484. weatherlover94:


I think they will bump it up at 2:00 or 8:00.
its only moving at 15 mph..
NHC wording about marginally favorable is just right for now... as its located in a moist environment. And the wave in front of it is moistening up the track for it even more. It has a ULAC to help spin a low underneath. If it acquires invest status we should get more accurate runs out of the models
ECMWF takes it off to the Northwest and then dissipates

60 hours



132 hours
we are going to see invest soon..
Early morning troll activity already?
Why do the regional sever weather maps cut Lake County, Florida in half? I don't see other large counties bisected.
2508. Grothar
Quoting 2438. VR46L:


Maybe its what has just left Africa that the euro is seeing..





Yes, it is. Hey VR!
Quoting 2503. Hurricanes305:
NHC wording about marginally favorable is just right for now... as its located in a moist environment. And the wave in front of it is moistening up the track for it even more. It has a ULAC to help spin a low underneath. If it acquires invest status we should get more accurate runs out of the models


Maybe its only Marginally favorable because it's so close to land.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0952 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N20W TO 08N21W. IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND ITS AXIS IS MOVING NEAR
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-
14N E OF 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM W OF
THE AXIS S OF 18N.
Quoting 2506. polarcane:
Early morning troll activity already?

Who?
be back on later
2513. VR46L
Quoting 2508. Grothar:


Yes, it is. Hey VR!


Hi Gro !

Hope you are keeping well

I am hoping this wave develops into a fish ... could do with the moisture at the moment that a fish would generate for here ...

Yes I know , the irony of me looking for rain !


Wave about to leave the coast, as Grothar shows also .. development to be slow .
Evening Aussie...!



Quoting 2511. SouthernIllinois:

Who?


Last page not going point fingers
Good Morning. 1 in 10 chance of development of the wave at this point. Plenty of time to watch it and not the time to speculate about formation into a storm and much less track..............It would not be a good bet at this point.

A reminder from the NOAA Mariners Guide to Tropical Cyclones. Please do not assume that this isolated wave, surrounded by dry air and with marginal conditions, is "the one":

Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. strong>Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.
Quoting 2509. weatherlover94:


Maybe its only Marginally favorable because it's so close to land.
Its only marginal mainly because of SAL and maybe a bit of cool SST near the CV ilslands but if you at the wave out ahead of this it is actually moistening up to path for our AOI as long as it keep west and dont gain too much latitude before the Islands it should have a good chance to develop.



SAL is really thinning out so if this was to develop it wont have much of any issues with dry air which could mean a large (size) system to track. We will see how it adjust to the water today and tomorrow before looking at its chances tho.
2519. Grothar
Quoting 2513. VR46L:


Hi Gro !

Hope you are keeping well

I am hoping this wave develops into a fish ... could do with the moisture at the moment that a fish would generate for here ...

Yes I know , the irony of me looking for rain !




These things have a habit of dumping on you over there the past few years. eh?
Quoting 2487. biff4ugo:
It would be great if they could develop an intuitive standard dashboard for tropical systems, like a cars dashboard.

Where Sea surface temps would be gas in the tank, warning lights for shear and SAL, and other indicators to denote the speed, expanse of the system, and environment in the direction of travel.
That's a good idea!
Quoting 2488. Tazmanian:





I wish you guys would stop spaming the blog with twos all ready



its been posted more then once if you need too see it this look back in one of the commets or go too the nhc site but plzs stop spaming the blog with the twos
I agree with TAZ on this one.
2524. VR46L
Quoting 2519. Grothar:


These things have a habit of dumping on you over there the past few years. eh?


Yes they do !

But due to the Large high we have had no rain to speak of for nearly a month ... reduced water into houses etc so could do with a fish
2525. Grothar
Quoting 2516. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. 1 in 10 chance of development of the wave at this point. Plenty of time to watch it and not the time to speculate about formation into a storm and much less track..............It would not be a good bet at this point.

A reminder from the NOAA Mariners Guide to Tropical Cyclones. Please do not assume that this isolated wave, surrounded by dry air and with marginal conditions, is "the one":

Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. strong>Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.



You mean we can't post the Hebert box or talk about the Fujiwhara effect yet? Darn.
2526. Matt74
Quoting 2516. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. 1 in 10 chance of development of the wave at this point. Plenty of time to watch it and not the time to speculate about formation into a storm and much less track..............It would not be a good bet at this point.

A reminder from the NOAA Mariners Guide to Tropical Cyclones. Please do not assume that this isolated wave, surrounded by dry air and with marginal conditions, is "the one":

Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. strong>Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.
You always put out good info. Certain ones on here need to read this and stay calm and level headed.
Quoting 2496. hurricanes2018:
I am happy to see this tropical wave moving west at 15 mph...not 30 mph.

Yes by now however if it keep moving westward it will accelerate
Quoting 2525. Grothar:



You mean we can't post the Hebert box or talk about the Fujiwhara effect yet? Darn.


Yes you can but AFTER the wave enters the Hebert Box...
Quoting 2520. Waltanater:
No, actually I answered a zodiac sign question first, THEN I told him to post somewhere else! Let me get this straight, so you'll be ok with what I do if I follow the same rules myself? Alright, but they will be my rules, not yours. You should be banned for insighting an argument with me, assuming the MODS are awake.
iam awake watching ya nitpik over every comment since like last week

whats up with that
2530. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Well well well..
This looks interesting..





Quoting 2525. Grothar:



You mean we can't post the Hebert box or talk about the Fujiwhara effect yet? Darn.


So it's safe to say we don't know if this is coming over my house?
Quoting 2473. Tropicsweatherpr:
Wave off Africa gets 10%. That is interesting.


Let's said very
06z GFS wants to develop it but droped it as it starts to move WNW



A mid level trough may try to weaken the ridge a little and the SE side allow our AOI to move N of due west or WNW into the subtropical jet and a little more SAL thus killing it. This will probably be a matter of track and the difference of a strengthening TS or a remnant low (if it develops). I still believe the model is underplaying the ridge a little and the flow is more of a zonal trade wind flow with bits of north tug if it reaches a slight weakness before the High rebuild and force it back into the MDR. 12z should be interesting now that its officially over Maritime climate.
2534. Grothar
Quoting 2531. GeoffreyWPB:


So it's safe to say we don't know if this is coming over my house?


Not yet, Geoff. But I would still buy those blue tarps if I were you.


The photo above shows an eye-popping complex of waterspouts I observed over the Adriatic Sea on a boat trip to Brindisi, Italy. As we departed, the weather was very summer like -- some humidity, hot and sunny. Cumuliform clouds developed during our excursion, but the weather didn't appear threatening. In fact, the atmospheric pressure was stable at 1024 millibars. Suddenly, we saw a line of funnel clouds straight in front of our boat! The photo shows the most recently formed waterspout in the foreground; the oldest spout, in the background, would disappear in a few seconds. Our boat actually passed through the scary funnels. The spouts were spaced about 1/3 nautical mile from each other. I asked the boat's captain if he thought cruising past the spouts would be dangerous, but apparently, he wasn't bothered much by their proximity. Nevertheless, waterspouts can generate winds of over 70 mph (F0 on the enhanced Fujita Scale) and can be hazardous to boaters. Othoni Island is at left center.
LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
352 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

ILZ006-014-INZ001-002-221700-
/O.NEW.KLOT.LS.S.0001.130723T2000Z-130724T1500Z/
LAKE IL-COOK-LAKE IN-PORTER-
352 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

...UNSEASONABLY LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A STRONG SUMMER COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE LAKE AND
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THE STRONG WINDS BLOWING DOWN THE FULL LENGTH
OF THE LAKE AND COOLER AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS WILL
RESULT IN UNUSUALLY LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES FOR SUMMER. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WAVES COULD BUILD UP TO OR SLIGHTLY OVER 10
FT...PARTICULARLY FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST INDIANA
SHORE LINE. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL INUNDATE THE TYPICALLY LARGE
WAVE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORE...INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS
ALONG THE CHICAGO LAKE FRONT BIKE PATH. DO NOT VENTURE OUT ONTO
BREAK WALLS OR TOO CLOSE TO THE BREAKING WAVES AS OCCASIONAL ROGUE
WAVES COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 15 FEET AND POTENTIALLY SWEEP YOU
OUT INTO THE LAKE!

IN ADDITION...THE LARGE WAVES WILL MAKE VENTURING INTO THE LAKE
VERY DANGEROUS...EVEN FOR EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SURF ZONE FORECAST (CHISRFLOT) AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS
(CHICFWLOT) FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE ANTICIPATED LARGE
WAVES.

Quoting 2534. Grothar:


Not yet, Geoff. But I would still buy those blue tarps if I were you.


Will do! But do they come in any other colors? Blue just doesn't do my house justice.
2538. Kyon5
Quoting 2537. GeoffreyWPB:


Will do! But do they come in any other colors? Blue just doesn't do my house justice.
They come in brown.
So it's not like the models don't like our wave (sort of).It's that northern movement that leads to it's demise.If it stays south with that ULAC and can more at 10-15 mph then we could be looking at a tropical storm Vs. a weak open wave.I see the ECWMF is on board with development but it sends it north to fast in my opinion.
2540. Kyon5
Quoting 2539. washingtonian115:
So it's not like the models don't like our wave (sort of).It's that northern movement that leads to it's demise.If it stays south with that ULAC and can more at 10-15 mph then we could be looking at a tropical storm Vs. a weak open wave.I see the ECWMF is on board with development but it sends it north to fast in my opinion.
The high pressure is very strong too. I see it hard that the tropical wave breaks the ridge. Unless there's a weakness, the wave will keep moving westward, IMO.
2541. pcola57
A warm pathway awaits..

Quoting 2540. Kyon5:
The high pressure is very strong too. I see it hard that the tropical wave breaks the ridge. Unless there's a weakness, the wave will keep moving westward, IMO.
Talk about walking between a fine line and a dangerous one.The northern movement is why the GFS doesn't really develop it as well.But when new information gets fed into the models I'm sure they will have a better handle on the situation.

Find more about Weather in Praia, Sao Domingos, Cape Verde Islands
Praia, Cape Verde Island, Weather Forecast

2544. pcola57
Mornin' Washi..
Looks like some stormy weather heading your way..



Quoting 2529. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam awake watching ya nitpik over every comment since like last week

whats up with that


did I insight an argument Keeper? Just curious lol. But I am done, just was pointing something out.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic.....
2546. Grothar
Quoting 2537. GeoffreyWPB:


Will do! But do they come in any other colors? Blue just doesn't do my house justice.



You can also get them at special stores in mauve and teal. I think they are important for everyone with a home to have.

So what I have gleaned from this blog about the AOI off of africa:
Pros+
+moist environment
+weak SAL
+Slower Speed (than chantal for sure)

Current Cons- ??
-Proximity to ITCZ ?
-Proximity to Land ?
-cooler SST

future cons-
-STJ maybe
-trough push Bermuda High eastward ?? (recurving)

Some one correct me if these are wrong assessments.
2548. Grothar
Quoting 2528. weathermanwannabe:


Yes you can but AFTER the wave enters the Hebert Box...


Boy, you're strict.
2549. Patrap
Hebert Box

Quoting 2549. Patrap:
Hebert Box


I used to know a Bobby Hebert but it was a different Hebert than the box guy.

LoL
Good Morning!

6:44 am (10:44 GMT)

Sunrise over the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.

Despite our meager rain chances of only 20% yesterday, we ended up getting our largest 1-day rainfall in over a week, with a healthy 0.65" collected in my 2 el cheapo rain gauges. The CoCoRaHS gauge I ordered is supposed to be here tomorrow. Also, spider lovers everywhere can rejoice knowing that Boris the Spider (post #1809) realized his dwelling choice in my rain gauge lacked sufficiant drainage and moved on to better digs.

Not Boris, but willing to pose.


Dexter's gettin' serious, as this year's hurricane season will undoubtedly be.
Just some observations this morning about the season as a whole.

Not trusting the models right now with storm development, but I am seeing an upward tick in favorable weather conditions for Tropical Storm development. Over the past week it seems to me that the Atlantic has been transitioning to a more favorable environment for cyclones. Average shear over the Atlantic has dropped considerably. I remember about 2-3 weeks ago I would see so many 40-50kt shear values over-spreading the Atlantic. When I got to work this morning, I checked out the shear values over the Atlantic and I couldn't find a 40 isotach at all.

Another observation is the SAL layer is dramtically less than this time last year, and what is was at a few weeks ago.

All these things point to a season starting to warm up. It is only a matter of time before we get going. A few weeks ago I remember saying that we would get our first storm in early August, and while we did have Chantal, we all know that was one wacko of a storm. Still many things are left to be decided but looks like the season is almost upon us.

Stay Safe y'all!
Quoting 2535. AussieStorm:


The photo above shows an eye-popping complex of waterspouts I observed over the Adriatic Sea on a boat trip to Brindisi, Italy. As we departed, the weather was very summer like -- some humidity, hot and sunny. Cumuliform clouds developed during our excursion, but the weather didn't appear threatening. In fact, the atmospheric pressure was stable at 1024 millibars. Suddenly, we saw a line of funnel clouds straight in front of our boat! The photo shows the most recently formed waterspout in the foreground; the oldest spout, in the background, would disappear in a few seconds. Our boat actually passed through the scary funnels. The spouts were spaced about 1/3 nautical mile from each other. I asked the boat's captain if he thought cruising past the spouts would be dangerous, but apparently, he wasn't bothered much by their proximity. Nevertheless, waterspouts can generate winds of over 70 mph (F0 on the enhanced Fujita Scale) and can be hazardous to boaters. Othoni Island is at left center.


I have seen this on numerous occasions here in Florida. Once while on a cruise where 5 spouts took turns coming down touching the water then popping back up into the cloud. The cruise director was not even concerned.

Once in the keys I saw what would have looked like and ef 3 if it were on land because it was a pretty big wedge but wasnt sure how far away it was from me. both events happened prior to me becoming a photographer.

Beautiful capture by the way!!!
I think the chances of this thing developing are pretty decent. The wave is already stronger than it should be because of the stronger-than-average Africa Easterly Jet created due to the temperature difference between the hot Sahara Desert and the cool Gulf of Guinea, and it's exiting into waters of approximately 27C. A nice upper-level anticyclone aloft should provide a favorable wind shear environment, and a large moisture bubble should help protect it from the dry air and SAL. In addition, a rapidly-moving convectively-coupled kelvin wave from the west should help generate thunderstorm activity as the wave tracks west and 10-15 mph.

I don't see this dying and moving more northerly like much of the models depict.
Dr. Frank, who worked with Dr. Hebert at NHC, always stated that folks in the US should not get their radars up about a potential US storm impact until it actually got to one of the Hebert Boxes.........Hebert 1 near Puerto Rico and/or Hebert 2 near the Western tip of Cuba.

I cannot speak for "Football" Hebert..............
Quoting 2551. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

6:44 am (10:44 GMT)

Sunrise over the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.

Despite our meager rain chances of only 20% yesterday, we ended up getting our largest 1-day rainfall in over a week, with a healthy 0.65" collected in my 2 el cheapo rain gauges. The CoCoRaHS gauge I ordered is supposed to be here tomorrow. Also, spider lovers everywhere can rejoice knowing that Boris the Spider (post #1809) realized his dwelling choice in my rain gauge lacked sufficiant drainage and moved on to better digs.

Not Boris, but willing to pose.


Dexter's gettin' serious, as this year's hurricane season will undoubtedly be.

OH MY look at that gorgeous sunrise and those palm trees underneath that crystal clear blue sky! Oh and Dexter putting on his serious face. LOL. I love it!! Thanks for the pics! :)

Natalie
2557. pcola57
Atlantic..



East Pac..

2558. hu2007
interesting again, it seems that at least there is some potencial but still is farther north east practically of cape verde than the other wave in the front of it that is below 10 north not much sal problem this time but still it will be a fish storm if get stronger if not and is a open wave until 50 west or soo it may have a chance i dont see the gfs taking the wave seriously anymore and by the way here in puerto rico is raining again with a thunderstorm near by
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I have seen this on numerous occasions here in Florida. Once while on a cruise where 5 spouts took turns coming down touching the water then popping back up into the cloud. The cruise director was not even concerned.

Once in the keys I saw what would have looked like and ef 3 if it were on land because it was a pretty big wedge but wasnt sure how far away it was from me. both events happened prior to me becoming a photographer.

Beautiful capture by the way!!!


Pssst,,, I didn't capture it.
I'm trying to get McKenzie interested this hurricane season, but I guess she has other plans for the summer...

Quoting 2559. AussieStorm:


Pssst,,, I didn't capture it.


Never-the-less, one great shot. Thanks for sharing.
2562. pcola57
Complex upper air..
Nothing simple here..
200mb..
Leaving analysis for the more learned..


Link




700mb Vertical Velocity ..



850mb Streamlines/Isotachs
..
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
914 AM AST MON JUL 22 2013

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-222015-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
914 AM AST MON JUL 22 2013

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST UNTIL AT LEAST 6 PM AST.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

IN MOUNTAINOUS OR HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT
ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.


$$

EM/ASA/CAM/RGH/GV
Quoting 2560. GeoffreyWPB:
I'm trying to get McKenzie interested this hurricane season, but I guess she has other plans for the summer...


Oh HOW CUTE Geoffrey. :) He looks like he'll never wanna get out. Good luck getting him interested in anything else cuz that ain't gonna happen!

Still waiting for Ains. In a way I can't wait for school to start up again so we can start having our breakfast bright and early instead of waiting SOOOOO LONG. LOL. I must be patient. Common you can do it!

Natalie
Quoting 2560. GeoffreyWPB:
I'm trying to get McKenzie interested this hurricane season, but I guess she has other plans for the summer...



"Yo Dad! You got all the stuff for hurricane season? I do not want to be inconvenienced! Oh, and grab me one of those beggin' strips while you're up..."
Quoting mikatnight:


Never-the-less, one great shot. Thanks for sharing.

You are welcome :-)


Goodnight all.

I will leave you with this eruption photo of Mt. Sakurajima, Japan
2567. hydrus
Quoting 2554. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think the chances of this thing developing are pretty decent. The wave is already stronger than it should be because of the stronger-than-average Africa Easterly Jet created due to the temperature difference between the hot Sahara Desert and the cool Gulf of Guinea, and it's exiting into waters of approximately 27C. A nice upper-level anticyclone aloft should provide a favorable wind shear environment, and a large moisture bubble should help protect it from the dry air and SAL. In addition, a rapidly-moving convectively-coupled kelvin wave from the west should help generate thunderstorm activity as the wave tracks west and 10-15 mph.

I don't see this dying and moving more northerly like much of the models depict.
it is a healthy looking African blob..:)
2568. K8eCane
Quoting 2551. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

6:44 am (10:44 GMT)

Sunrise over the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.

Despite our meager rain chances of only 20% yesterday, we ended up getting our largest 1-day rainfall in over a week, with a healthy 0.65" collected in my 2 el cheapo rain gauges. The CoCoRaHS gauge I ordered is supposed to be here tomorrow. Also, spider lovers everywhere can rejoice knowing that Boris the Spider (post #1809) realized his dwelling choice in my rain gauge lacked sufficiant drainage and moved on to better digs.

Not Boris, but willing to pose.


Dexter's gettin' serious, as this year's hurricane season will undoubtedly be.


Hi Dexter! Really look like my Goldie. His name is Goldie because he is a black male LOL
Quoting 2566. AussieStorm:

You are welcome :-)


Goodnight all.

I will leave you with this eruption photo of Mt. Sakurajima, Japan
that's a nice puff of smoke

2570. 62901IL
OH BOY!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT
500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
Quoting 2560. GeoffreyWPB:
I'm trying to get McKenzie interested this hurricane season, but I guess she has other plans for the summer...

Lol.Loks like she's enjoying it too.
Quoting 2570. 62901IL:
OH BOY!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT
500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN



Did that have to be posted again. Next time this look back in the comments. For the two has its been posted all ready. Like I said befor no one seems too read the blog be for posting too see if its all ready been posted wish it has
A tropical wave off the coast of Africa is strong enough to develop into an organized tropical system, but a significant obstacle lies in its way.
That obstacle is in the form of dry and dusty air streaming across the eastern Atlantic Ocean from Africa's Sahara Desert.
Without this Saharan dust present, concern would be high for the wave to quickly strengthen into Tropical Storm Dorian.

This is what accuweather thinks..
Link
2574. Levi32
I have set up auto-updating IR and visible GIF animations of METEOSAT data centered over our tropical wave. Satellite images come in every 15 minutes, courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory.

IR Loop

Visible Loop

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT
500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

Natalie :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that's a nice puff of smoke



Here is the video of the eruption


Goodnight
Quoting 2568. K8eCane:


Hi Dexter! Really look like my Goldie. His name is Goldie because he is a black male LOL


You should post a picture of Goldie, Dexter likes to make new friends. I know if he ever meets McKenzie he'll fall in love (again - he's such a dog!)
2578. FMDawg
Quoting 2551. mikatnight:
Good Morning!

6:44 am (10:44 GMT)

Sunrise over the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.

Despite our meager rain chances of only 20% yesterday, we ended up getting our largest 1-day rainfall in over a week, with a healthy 0.65" collected in my 2 el cheapo rain gauges. The CoCoRaHS gauge I ordered is supposed to be here tomorrow. Also, spider lovers everywhere can rejoice knowing that Boris the Spider (post #1809) realized his dwelling choice in my rain gauge lacked sufficiant drainage and moved on to better digs.

Not Boris, but willing to pose.


Dexter's gettin' serious, as this year's hurricane season will undoubtedly be.
Is that an Austrailian cattle dog? Love them!
2579. hu2007
dorian should will but it will not survive much if the future invest dorian start putting it nose northwestward and is only 10% but not letting my guard down ;)
Interesting to see the Euro developing a low from this wave, if only for a few frames. That's probably the most development it's portrayed all year.
2581. pcola57
Quoting 2574. Levi32:
I have set up auto-updating IR and visible GIF animations of METEOSAT data centered over our tropical wave. Satellite images come in every 15 minutes, courtesy of the Navy Research Laboratory.

IR Loop

Visible Loop



Thank you Levi..
Quoting 2573. washingtonian115:
A tropical wave off the coast of Africa is strong enough to develop into an organized tropical system, but a significant obstacle lies in its way.
That obstacle is in the form of dry and dusty air streaming across the eastern Atlantic Ocean from Africa's Sahara Desert.
Without this Saharan dust present, concern would be high for the wave to quickly strengthen into Tropical Storm Dorian.

This is what accuweather thinks..
Link
good article. I'm thinking about starting up my generator to try it out.
Marty you here???

Restoring access to critical habitat for the Sea-run Fisheries of Maine's Largest Watershed.


The Penobscot River Restoration Trust and its public and private partners are working to undo more than two centuries of damage that too many dams have inflicted upon the Penobscot River. Removal of the lower two dams (the first completed in 2012) and bypassing of a third greatly improves access to nearly 1000 miles of habitat for endangered Atlantic salmon and shortnose sturgeon, American shad, alewife, and seven other species of sea-run fish in Maine. As fish passage is improved at four remaining dams and energy increased at six, these ecological benefits will be realized while maintaining or even increasing energy production. By reconnecting the river to the sea, the Penobscot Project promises large-scale ecological, cultural, recreational and economic benefits throughout New England's second largest watershed.

LIVE online at 10 am: traditional smudging ceremony led by Penobscot Nation elder Butch Phillips, press conference, and breaching of the Veazie Dam!!!
Here is the live stream
Quoting 2578. FMDawg:
Is that an Austrailian cattle dog? Love them!


We think he's a chihuahua/miniature pinscher (min-pin) mix.

Now, has everybody been studying up? 'Cause I think the good dr. will be making a new post any minute...
its invest 98L here yet!! how long do we have to wait for it to come!
2587. 62901IL
Quoting 2585. hurricanes2018:
its invest 98L here yet!! how long do we have to wait for it to come!

No comment
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
940 AM AST MON JUL 22 2013

PRC013-017-021-029-031-033-039-047-051-053-054-06 1-087-089-091-101-
105-119-127-135-137-139-143-145-221630-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0199.130722T1340Z-130722T1630Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARCELONETA PR-BAYAMON PR-CANOVANAS PR-CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-
FLORIDA PR-GUAYNABO PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-ARECIBO PR-DORADO PR-
TOA ALTA PR-TOA BAJA PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-LUQUILLO PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
940 AM AST MON JUL 22 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARCELONETA...BAYAMON...CANOVANAS...CIALES...COROZ AL...
FLORIDA...GUAYNABO...MANATI...MOROVIS...NARANJITO. ..SAN JUAN...
TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...VEGA BAJA...ARECIBO...DORADO...TOA
ALTA...TOA BAJA...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...CATANO...LUQUILLO...RI O
GRANDE AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 1230 PM AST

* AT 935 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IS
DETECTING SEVERAL STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE
WARNED AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
WITH THE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.


MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6647 1849 6644 1843 6582 1842 6581
1843 6579 1838 6570 1837 6566 1840 6562
1834 6561 1832 6562 1831 6561 1829 6563
1835 6660 1849 6666 1851 6662

$$

AAS
Good morning, weathergeeks! :)




It's too early to put the long-track running shoes on just yet with the twave. ;) Could be Dorian though if the easterlies have slowed, maintains a moisture field (not really concerned about dust) with decent mid-level conditions. It just tipped its toe in the Atlantic, we'll see how it looks in three or four days.

Have a good Monday and week, all! :)
Quoting 2574. Levi32:
I have set up auto-updating IR and visible GIF animations of METEOSAT data centered over our tropical wave. Satellite images come in every 15 minutes, courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory.

IR Loop

Visible Loop



Your like a pro, Levi.
Have a great day all...
Already received 0.4 inches from this band, still more to go:

is going up very fast here!!
Quoting 2592. mikatnight:
Have a great day all...

You too!

Natalie
Quoting 2593. Astrometeor:
Already received 0.4 inches from this band, still more to go:


SO JEALOUS Astro!!! :)
Quoting 2589. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! :)




It's too early to put the long-track running shoes on just yet with the twave. ;) Could be Dorian though if the easterlies have slowed, maintains a moisture field (not really concerned about dust) with decent mid-level conditions. It just tipped its toe in the Atlantic, we'll see how it looks in three or four days.

Have a good Monday and week, all! :)

Morning MLC! Yep...tropics are quiet for now. Have a great Monday and week also!! :)

Natalie
Waiting on Dr. Masters update any minute. I am sure that he will probably note the pros and cons as to development of the wave.

Looking at the overall conditions, SAL/Dry air issues and wind sheer, in the short term, seem to be the greatest inhibitors as there are no significant ULLs at the moment between the Wave and the Caribbean.
Quoting 2596. SouthernIllinois:

SO JEALOUS Astro!!! :)


:D

It's pouring rain again after a brief let-up.
the blue color is here!!
2601. K8eCane
Quoting 2600. hurricanes2018:
the blue color is here!!



Looks like a slight chance of formation off my coast
Back from Wx camp in DC

Met a lot of nice people and went a lot of nice places (esp the new NCEP building).

Quite the wonderful experience....Might upload pics later.
Quoting mikatnight:


Go to sleep, go to sleep, ...


Thanks... I will go now... so many good links to share today. another....



Gravity Waves and Sunglint, Lake Superior
From the vantage point of the International Space Station, astronauts frequently observe atmospheric and surface phenomena in ways that are impossible to view from the ground. Two such phenomena—gravity waves and sunglint—are illustrated in this photograph of northeastern Lake Superior.
At the top of the image, the Canadian Shield of southern Ontario is covered by an extensive forest canopy typical of early summer. Offshore and to the west and southwest of Pukaskwa National Park, several distinct sets of parallel cloud bands are visible. Gravity waves are produced when moisture-laden air encounters imbalances in air density, such as might be expected when cool air flows over warmer air. This can cause the flowing air to oscillate up and down as it moves, causing clouds to condense as the air rises and cools and to evaporate away as the air sinks and warms. This produces parallel bands of clouds oriented perpendicular to the wind direction. The orientation of the cloud bands in this image, parallel to the coastlines, suggests that air flowing off of the land surfaces to the north is interacting with moist, stable air over the lake surface, creating gravity waves.
The second phenomenon—sunglint—affects the water surface around and to the northeast of Isle Royale. Sunglint is caused by light reflection off a water surface; some of the reflected light travels directly back towards the observer, resulting in a bright mirror-like appearance over large expanses of water. Water currents and changes in surface tension—typically caused by presence of oils or surfactants—alter the reflective properties of the water and can be highlighted by sunglint. For example, surface water currents are visible to the east of Isle Royale that are oriented similarly to the gravity waves, suggesting that they too are the product of winds moving off of the land surface.
Astronaut photograph ISS036-E-11843 was acquired on June 24, 2013, with a Nikon D3S digital camera using a 50 millimeter lens, and is provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations experiment and Image Science & Analysis Laboratory, Johnson Space Center. The image was taken by the Expedition 36 crew. It has been cropped and enhanced to improve contrast, and lens artifacts have been removed. The International Space Station Program supports the laboratory as part of the ISS National Lab to help astronauts take pictures of Earth that will be of the greatest value to scientists and the public, and to make those images freely available on the Internet.
Quoting 2599. Astrometeor:


:D

It's pouring rain again after a brief let-up.

Ugh!!! *Pounds Table* I want that!!! I want pouring rain! :D
Way back east...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307221444
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013
AL, 98, 2013072112, , BEST, 0, 127N, 131W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072118, , BEST, 0, 127N, 141W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 151W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072206, , BEST, 0, 127N, 161W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072212, , BEST, 0, 127N, 171W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
2606. 7544
Quoting 2605. Neapolitan:
Way back east...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307221439
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013
AL, 98, 2013072212, , BEST, 0, 127N, 171W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


welcome aboard 98L
Quoting 2604. SouthernIllinois:

Ugh!!! *Pounds Table* I want that!!! I want pouring rain! :D


No you don't. You don't want rain spoiling your beautiful day, do you?


Say bye-bye to Illinois Mr. Rain Cloud!


Aww, nothing in Illinois.

Have fun today Natalie.
2608. VR46L
Quoting 2604. SouthernIllinois:

Ugh!!! *Pounds Table* I want that!!! I want pouring rain! :D


Ya need to do a swap with some of the Floridans.... they have had loads ... I can't even will some over to ya, I have none to give !(for a change)

Could get used to 75°F!
2609. pcola57
Quoting 2605. Neapolitan:
Way back east...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307221439
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013
AL, 98, 2013072212, , BEST, 0, 127N, 171W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Morning Nea..
I get everything on the message except the "DB" in the closing line..
What does that stand for?
Quoting 2602. GeorgiaStormz:
Back from Wx camp in DC

Met a lot of nice people and went a lot of nice places (esp the new NCEP building).

Quite the wonderful experience....Might upload pics later.

Welcome back. I figured you must have been out of town or VERY busy since you have not posted for a while. I mean you ALWAYS post with heavy rains and you guys have been getting whomped lately!

Natalie
2611. VR46L
Quoting 2609. pcola57:


Morning Nea..
I get everything on the message except the "DB" in the closing line..
What does that stand for?


At least this one has a corresponding Yellow Circle ....

Quoting 2605. Neapolitan:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307221439
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013
AL, 98, 2013072212, , BEST, 0, 127N, 171W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
It's here things starting to get interesting
Quoting 2609. pcola57:


Morning Nea..
I get everything on the message except the "DB" in the closing line..
What does that stand for?
"Disturbance"

DB - disturbance,
TD - tropical depression,
TS - tropical storm,
TY - typhoon,
ST - super typhoon,
TC - tropical cyclone,
HU - hurricane,
SD - subtropical depression,
SS - subtropical storm,
EX - extratropical systems,
PT - post tropical,
IN - inland,
DS - dissipating,
LO - low,
WV - tropical wave,
ET - extrapolated,
XX - unknown

Source
Quoting 2605. Neapolitan:
Way back east...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307221439
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013
AL, 98, 2013072212, , BEST, 0, 127N, 171W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Nice catch Neapolitan with the coordinates, lol, I tried to find that on a map. Didn't work out so well.

Edit: Do they do decimal points over there?
Quoting 2607. Astrometeor:


No you don't. You don't want rain spoiling your beautiful day, do you?


Say bye-bye to Illinois Mr. Rain Cloud!


Aww, nothing in Illinois.

Have fun today Natalie.

LOL. Well, I don't have anything too big planned for today. More low-key day of R&R after a SUPER busy and FUN weekend of partying pretty much 36 hours straight. haha. :) So some rain would be nice but sun wouldn't hurt either I guess.

Thanks, Astro! :-)
Quoting 2604. SouthernIllinois:

Ugh!!! *Pounds Table* I want that!!! I want pouring rain! :D


I got me just over 1.5" very early this morning. Radar estimates are bit off in my area, but our local WU reporter had 1.69", and all three of my gauges had over 1.5". We needed it too, we have missed out on the last few events.

2617. pcola57
Quoting 2613. Neapolitan:
"Disturbance"


Ok got it now..
Thanks and again good morning..

**Edit:
Thanks for the link..Bookmarked.. :)
Quoting 2608. VR46L:


Ya need to do a swap with some of the Floridans.... they have had loads ... I can't even will some over to ya, I have none to give !(for a change)

Could get used to 75°F!

Tell me about it! We SO need to Swap!! LOL.

Enjoy that 75 in Ireland Liz! SUPER glad you are finally able to enjoy that. Must be very difficult for ya reading post after post from folks here in the states ALWAYS rubbing in that beautiful Southern Illinois sunny weather in. *Natalie ducks and runs away* lol
AL, 98, 2013072112, 127N, 131W, 20, 1012, DB
AL, 98, 2013072118, 127N, 141W, 20, 1012, DB
AL, 98, 2013072200, 127N, 151W, 20, 1011, DB
AL, 98, 2013072206, 127N, 161W, 20, 1011, DB
AL, 98, 2013072212, 127N, 171W, 20, 1010, DB
2620. pcola57
Quoting 2611. VR46L:


At least this one has a corresponding Yellow Circle ....


Good Morning VR46L..
At least we can see from the Dr.'s post above the %'s of it becomeing something/Margin of error..
Key to it is the 48 hr window..
How are things your way?
Better I hope..
Increase in chances is likely at now at 2pm still think sal is not much of a problem  and the wave ahead of it is moistening up its track. Lets see what the 12z runs have to say now that we got a low to plot
2622. VR46L
Quoting 2618. SouthernIllinois:

Tell me about it! We SO need to Swap!! LOL.

Enjoy that 75 in Ireland Liz! SUPER glad you are finally able to enjoy that. Must be very difficult for ya reading post after post from folks here in the states ALWAYS rubbing in that beautiful Southern Illinois sunny weather in. *Natalie ducks and runs away* lol


At least I don't get your winters ....:P
Lets check the NHC Facebook page to make sure that this very early invest status is not a "test".....Seems to be way too far out in the Atlantic at this time with only a 10% shot as of this am............... :)
Quoting 2616. ILwthrfan:


I got me just over 1.5" very early this morning. Radar estimates are bit off in my area, but our local WU reporter had 1.69", and all three of my gauges had over 1.5". We needed it too, we have missed out on the last few events.


OMG Mega jealous! But you are right you sure were due for a good soaking. And go with the actual observations instead of radar, especially with heavier downpours with thunderstorms this time of year. In the spring with steadier rains, radar estimates are much more accurate. But with these torrential downpours with widely scattered thunderstorms, radar is not always the best tool to use.

Nice report though!! So glad you got something!! :-)
Quoting 2622. VR46L:


At least I don't get your winters ....:P

SO TRUE!!
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone! Back in Louisiana again, 82 degrees with a 30% chance of rain later on. They had plenty of rain while I was gone, so my garden survived being cared for by my youngest son who is 20. Unfortunately, high winds during one storm blew over my swing and flattened the lilies behind them. It'll take a couple of us to pull it back upright. I think the lilies are done for for this year. I'll have to come up with a way to anchor the swing down.

My son, Florida and the beach were wonderful. We went to the beach for the most part between rain squalls. Had to use the bay side of Navarre beach as most days were red flag days on the Gulf side, but did get some awesome pics of the heavy waves.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Canadian bacon, sausage links, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!
Heck yeah!! We have a invest to track. Better than nothing at this point.
Quoting 2628. aislinnpaps:
Breakfast's on the sideboard: whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Canadian bacon, sausage links, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy!

Yes. PERFECT TIMING. I am going to do a little bit of everything today! Thank you!!
2631. VR46L
Quoting 2620. pcola57:


Good Morning VR46L..
At least we can see from the Dr.'s post above the %'s of it becomeing something/Margin of error..
Key to it is the 48 hr window..
How are things your way?
Better I hope..


Have an old cold so I cant visit :( which is why I am here trying to occupy the old mind ...

Anyway the wave is kinda big

!!!!!!! 98L !!!!!!!

Ran into a strong tstorm on the way home yesterday afternoon






BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307221444
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013
AL, 98, 2013072112, , BEST, 0, 127N, 131W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072118, , BEST, 0, 127N, 141W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 151W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072206, , BEST, 0, 127N, 161W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072212, , BEST, 0, 127N, 171W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


I was right I tell you was was waiting for this invest to come..
Quoting 2634. hurricanes2018:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307221444
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2013, DB, O, 2013072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982013
AL, 98, 2013072112, , BEST, 0, 127N, 131W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072118, , BEST, 0, 127N, 141W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 151W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072206, , BEST, 0, 127N, 161W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2013072212, , BEST, 0, 127N, 171W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


I was right I tell you was was waiting for this invest to come..


Go back to cave jasoncoolman
2636. pcola57
Quoting 2631. VR46L:


Have an old cold so I cant visit :( which is why I am here trying to occupy the old mind ...

Anyway the wave is kinda big



Darn cold..
Well I hope you get to feeling better soon.. :)
That wave/98L is huge..
I don't know how to measure properly with Google map but if I did I would certainly measure it..
It will be interesting to see what the doc has to say about our wave
2639. Patrap
No shrimp again.

: )

I may boycott
Quoting 2638. weatherlover94:
It will be interesting to see what the doc has to say about our wave

Yes
I am in a great mood now.. we have invest 98L TO WATCH!
I only have pictures of a few of our outings.

One of them was to WJLA tv in Washington Dc,where we saw Adam Caskey and others. We also watched the 12:00 news live from offstage.








I have a few pictures from NCEP as well but none of the whole building from the outside or of the giant lobby.





the international/intern desk








We also attended their daily wx briefing but there was nothing worth sharing from that.
I did understand 95% of what they said in it so that's good.
2643. Mclem1
Morning folks! Glad to see we have a new invest to talk about, the posts were getting a little sketchy without a storm...
Quoting 2639. Patrap:
No shrimp again.

: )

I may boycott


What was I thinking? Obviously I wasn't, thinking that is. I hope Largo has that coffee pot full on the sideboard, I may need more than one cup this morning! The shrimp and grits is now added and the Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble is just finishing up and will be there steaming shortly. *G*
Quoting 2613. Neapolitan:
"Disturbance"

DB - disturbance,
TD - tropical depression,
TS - tropical storm,
TY - typhoon,
ST - super typhoon,
TC - tropical cyclone,
HU - hurricane,
SD - subtropical depression,
SS - subtropical storm,
EX - extratropical systems,
PT - post tropical,
IN - inland,
DS - dissipating,
LO - low,
WV - tropical wave,
ET - extrapolated,
XX - unknown

Source


I thought "DB" stood for "Don't Beckon".

Thanks for the list of acronyms!
Quoting 2639. Patrap:
No shrimp again.

: )

I may boycott

You do that. More then for me. J/K. :)

OMG I remember taking trips down I-55 to NOLA and having that Gumbo and Jambalaya. OMG talk about YUMMY!!!!!!!
Quoting 2645. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I thought "DB" stood for "Don't Beckon".

Thanks for the list of acronyms!

Was thinking Defense Back. (Yes, I am beginning to go full force into my football withdrawals.) Don't think I'll make it till September at the rate I'm going.... haha
great another fish storm. like we havent seen that forever
Quoting 2642. GeorgiaStormz:
I only have pictures of a few of our outings.

One of them was to WJLA tv in Washington Dc,where we saw Adam Caskey and others. We also watched the 12:00 news live from offstage.








I have a few pictures from NCEP as well but none of the whole building from the outside or of the giant lobby.





the international/intern desk








We also attended their daily wx briefing but there was nothing worth sharing from that.
I did understand 95% of what they said in it so that's good.
Fox 5 is better.But Tucker (the met) is a jerk.
2650. Patrap
<----- Sits grinning and thankful with his Cheesy Grits and Shrimps..., Nom, nom
FISH STORM!!
AL 98 201307220900 70 ANAL NHC SHIP ZIPR7 NW CNTR RPTD NNE/23 KT
AL 98 201307221200 70 ANAL NHC SHIP VRKZ7 SE CNTR RPTD SW/23 KT
AL 98 201307221200 70 ANAL 1270N 1710W NHC ANALYSIS BASED ON NEARBY SFC AND SHIP RPTS
Caught the edge, this one looks rather large:

Captain trough save the U.S will be off the coast by the time (If the wave ever develops) decides to come close to the U.S.
Quoting 2651. hurricanes2018:
FISH STORM!!
Always a northward biased with a storm that far in the Eastern Atlantic, that will change soon with the new dynamical runs.
And just for fun on Saturday we explored the mall area.






And after camp I went to see the space shuttle







Anyway that's all the pictures I'm going to post here....back to regular life now for me :'(
Quoting 2654. washingtonian115:
Captain trough save the U.S will be off the coast by the time (If the wave ever develops) decides to come close to the U.S.
very big trough will kick this storm out to sea next week!! we are save at this time,,
2658. pcola57
Quoting 2653. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Caught the edge, this one looks rather large:



Morning GT..
It does look large..
Do you know how to use Google Maps and the measurment function..
I don't seem to have enough brain cells to do it.. :)
Try it if you can and see what you come up with..
Just a suggestion if your so inclined.. :)
98 is a popular number this 12Z cycle


98E INVEST 130722 1200 10.6N 107.9W EPAC 20 1008
98L INVEST 130722 1200 12.7N 17.1W ATL 20 1010
98W INVEST 130722 1200 11.8N 111.6E WPAC 15 1010
99W INVEST 130722 1200 4.0N 154.5E WPAC 15 1010
how many of you are sick of the same track the past 4 seasons. its so ridiculous with all these fish storms. so boring
My local weather plays a vital role in the future steering of this storm.READ THIS

Last week, all seven days reached 90 or higher. What if I told you we might not hit 90 at all this week? It’s possible (though Tuesday might play spoiler and maybe Saturday), but instead of heat, we have considerable clouds and rain chances, especially early this week. Mid-to-late week, we *may* catch a rare break from both rain and hot weather if we can get a fickle front out of the way.

CWG
Link
Quoting 2615. SouthernIllinois:

LOL. Well, I don't have anything too big planned for today. More low-key day of R&R after a SUPER busy and FUN weekend of partying pretty much 36 hours straight. haha. :) So some rain would be nice but sun wouldn't hurt either I guess.

Thanks, Astro! :-)


Hmmm, sounds like a rave party
2664. VR46L
Quoting 2663. RitaEvac:


Hmmm, sounds like a rave party


Oh to be in my early 20's again .... Fun Times !

2665. pcola57
Quoting 2661. floridaboy14:
how many of you are sick of the same track the past 4 seasons. its so ridiculous with all these fish storms. so boring


I'm glad they go out to sea..
I don't like the destruction they bring..
And they are prone to murder people..
I take it by the way you speak, you have never been in
A Major Hurricaine..
If you have you would consider yourself lucky to survive..
And not wish the storm to hit anyone..
I'll take a storm out to sea anytime..
I could go one but then I could get a ban..

Rant over..
Quoting 2658. pcola57:


Morning GT..
It does look large..
Do you know how to use Google Maps and the measurment function..
I don't seem to have enough brain cells to do it.. :)
Try it if you can and see what you come up with..
Just a suggestion if your so inclined.. :)
Do you mean Google Earth for when you you have the models displayed?
Rough road ahead for newly developed 98L regardless can't see this being a threat to the southeast with trofiness hanging around.
Quoting 2661. floridaboy14:
how many of you are sick of the same track the past 4 seasons. its so ridiculous with all these fish storms. so boring
Well after getting hit both years (011,012) and many phone calls with the insurance company later I think I like them better out at sea.
Quoting 2665. pcola57:


I'm glad they go out to sea..
I don't like the destruction they bring..
And they are prone to murder people..
I take it by the way you speak, you have never been in
A Major Hurricaine..
If you have you would consider yourself lucky to survive..
And not wish the storm to hit anyone..
I'll take a storm out to sea anytime..
I could go one but then I could get a ban..

Rant over..

A hurricane are usually not responsible for the human death tolls. You should know that most impacted storms caused more indirectly killed and if you respect the alerts, you won't die.
2670. pcola57
Quoting 2666. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Do you mean Google Earth for when you you have the models displayed?


I guess so GT..
I am so cluless with Google Earth..
I've watched the tutorials and still the only thing I can do is find my house.. :)
Am very courious as to how big 98L is now and compare it as it goes along..
I can't think of very many that started this large..


ULL from back east is over Los Angeles CA this morning.....PW values of 1.9 inch will cause more thunderstorms today in the mountains......had a nice rain at my house yesterday with .50 inch total. Am hoping for a repeat today!
2672. Patrap
WELCOME TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE PROJECT (TCGP)



Click here to go straight to the real-time guidance

The aims of this project are: (a) to foster increased development of forecast aids for global basins by engaging the wider community of operational centers, academic researchers, and commercial interests; and (b) to go beyond track and intensity both by encouraging the development of forecast aids for structure change and by providing structure data for use in track and intensity projection methods.

To accomplish these aims, the project is organized around four main objectives: (1) to provide a global repository of tropical cyclone forecast aids for track and intensity information, (2) to provide real-time plots of these data for active tropical cyclones, and (3) to visualize structure and intensity parameters from observations taken by reconnaissance aircraft, (4) to provide retrospective plots of these data for past tropical cyclones.

This site is organized by tabs underneath the banner image above. Please refer to the overview tab to learn more about the purpose and rationale of this project, as well as future plans and general information for users. Each main tab also has a page explaining more about that section. The guide to plots tab provides an in-depth explanation for each of the types of plots featured in the site, as well as information about the various tropical cyclone forecast aids that appear in the plots. Some additional tropical cyclone resources are provided on the links tab.
Here we go.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
815 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY...WITH SOME ALSO EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN
INLAND VALLEYS. DRYING WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A BRIEF RETURN
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY GREATER
DRYING FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST BRINGING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS.
Invest 98L is NOT a FISH ! It will be a East coaster , or a Carribean runner. That ridge will block any Northern movement . The ridge is too strong . So no FISH !
2676. RTLSNK
Something wicked this way comes:

Quoting 2655. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Always a northward biased with a storm that far in the Eastern Atlantic, that will change soon with the new dynamical runs.

Only if the storm is weak but those models are so bullish in tracks and sometimes intensity.
Quoting 2663. RitaEvac:


Hmmm, sounds like a rave party


I received some more good rains over the weekend. How did you fare?
Quoting 2673. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Here we go.


Finally!
2680. yqt1001
2013 NHEM ACE so far is very low compared to 2012.

Total for 2013 up to now is 56 ACE globally:
Western Pacific has 30 ACE
Eastern pacific has 16 ACE
North Indian has 5 ACE
Atlantic has 4 ACE

Last year at this time...
Western Pacific had 63 ACE
Eastern Pacific had 56 ACE
Atlantic had 11 ACE
North Indian 0 ACE

For a grand total of 130 ACE.

What am I missing here? Am I comparing an average season globally to a hyper active one, or is 2013 really that awful once the SHEM died?
Check out the temp and dew point in Soo Call this morning....wow...lol....94% humidity

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 22 Jul 8:34 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 22 Jul 8:20 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
22 Jul 8:20 am PDT 67 65 94 WNW 4G06 OK....
2682. etxwx
Good morning all. Looks like our rain chances go away and serious summer time heat returns for our part of Texas:


This "pet" needs a slightly larger pool to stay cool... :-)
Quoting 2642. GeorgiaStormz:
I only have pictures of a few of our outings.

One of them was to WJLA tv in Washington Dc,where we saw Adam Caskey and others. We also watched the 12:00 news live from offstage.








I have a few pictures from NCEP as well but none of the whole building from the outside or of the giant lobby.





the international/intern desk








We also attended their daily wx briefing but there was nothing worth sharing from that.
I did understand 95% of what they said in it so that's good.

I did something like that :p Not all the big weather things tho. I toured my local news station and I watched the 6:00 news from offstage and the meteorologist walked me through the weather center and showed me alot of things. It was a cool experience
THIS MAP GOT A NEW UPDAte now you see yellow on the east coast its was not there before!
What do you guys think about 98L?
2686. hu2007
Quoting 2651. hurricanes2018:
FISH STORM!!
something smell like fish :)
Quoting 2670. pcola57:


I guess so GT..
I am so cluless with Google Earth..
I've watched the tutorials and still the only thing I can do is find my house.. :)
Am very courious as to how big 98L is now and compare it as it goes along..
I can't think of very many that started this large..


Closest I could find right off the bat.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2689. hu2007
Quoting 2685. pie314271:
What do you guys think about 98L?
that it will be a stronger storm yet this year dorian can be fun to watch :)
Quoting 2678. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I received some more good rains over the weekend. How did you fare?


Picked up 0.71" yesterday morning
Quoting 2670. pcola57:


I guess so GT..
I am so cluless with Google Earth..
I've watched the tutorials and still the only thing I can do is find my house.. :)
Am very courious as to how big 98L is now and compare it as it goes along..
I can't think of very many that started this large..


One method is to use Computer Hurricane Guidance and at the bottom is a listing of statistics that includes outward radius:

LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 17.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 15.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 13.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

In this case 180 nautical miles
Quote from the Matrix.
"You move to an area, and you multiply, and multiply, until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet, you are a plague, and we are the cure."