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NHC upgrades Sandy to a Cat 3 in reanalysis, affirms changes needed for warnings

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:01 PM GMT on February 13, 2013

The National Hurricane Center released their final analysis of Hurricane Sandy this week. At 157 pages and 14 Mb, it's by far the largest tropical cyclone report NHC has ever released (previous record: 55 pages from Hurricane Ike of 2008.) NHC upgraded Sandy to a Category 3 hurricane in post-analysis. Data from the Hurricane Hunters showed that Sandy had 115 mph sustained winds at landfall in Cuba, making Sandy the second major hurricane of the 2012 season (Michael was the other.) NHC's report reaffirmed that Sandy was not a hurricane when it made landfall in New Jersey, having transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone when it was 2.5 hours and 50 miles away from landfall. Sandy officially made landfall in New Jersey as a post-tropical cyclone with sustained 80 mph winds and a central pressure of 945 mb. However, Sandy did bring hurricane force sustained winds to the coast before transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone. Great Gull Island, New York, between Long Island and Fishers Island, measured a 1-min mean wind of 75 mph at an elevation of 18 m (59') at 4:35 pm EDT on 29 October, about 25 minutes before Sandy lost its status as a hurricane. NHC noted: This observation suggests that sustained hurricane-force winds likely occurred onshore over a limited area while Sandy was still a hurricane.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Sandy was responsible for 72 direct deaths in the U.S., the second highest toll from a U.S. hurricane since Hurricane Agnes of 1972 (Hurricane Katrina of 2005 was the highest, with at least 1500 direct deaths.) Sandy's storm surge was responsible for most of the U.S. deaths--41 of the 72 fatalities (57%). Falling trees during the storm killed twenty people, a rather high number that again highlights that hazard in the northeastern and mid-Atlantic states, even in locations experiencing winds of less than hurricane force. At least 87 deaths, an even greater number than for direct deaths, were indirectly associated with Sandy or its remnants in the United States. About 50 of these deaths were the result of extended power outages during cold weather, which led to deaths from hypothermia, falls in the dark by senior citizens, or carbon monoxide poisoning from improperly placed generators or cooking devices.

Sandy by the numbers: some statistics from NHC's final report on Sandy:

Death toll: 147 (72 in the U.S., 54 in Haiti, 11 in Cuba)

U.S. Damage: $50 billion, second costliest hurricane of all-time

Cuban Damage: $2 billion, fourth costliest hurricane of all-time

Haitian Damage: $0.75 billion, costliest hurricane of all-time

Homes damages/destroyed: 945,000 (650,000 in U.S.)

Power outages: 8.5 million U.S. customers, 2nd most for a natural disaster behind the 1993 blizzard (10 million)

Maximum sustained winds measured: 93 mph at Cabo Lucrecia, Cuba

Maximum U.S. sustained winds measured: 75 mph at Great Gull Island, New York

Peak U.S. wind gust: 95 mph at Eaton's Neck, Long Island, NY (24 m elevation)

Maximum U.S. storm surge: 12.65', King's Point, NY, west end of Long Island Sound

Maximum U.S. Storm Tide (measured above MLLW): 14.58', Bergen Point, NJ

Maximum Storm Tide at The Battery in New York City: 14.06'. This is 4.36 ft higher than the previous record set in December 1992, and 4.55 ft higher than in Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.

Maximum significant wave height: 33.1' at the buoy east of Cape Hatteras, NC (2nd highest: 32.5' at the Entrance to New York Harbor)

Maximum rainfall: 28.09", Mill Bank, Jamaica

Maximum U.S. rainfall: 12.83", Bellevue, MD

Maximum snowfall: 36", Richwood, WV and Wolf Laurel Mountain, NC

Minimum pressure: 945.5 mb, Atlantic City, NJ at 7:24 pm EST, October 29, 2012. This is the lowest pressure measured in the U.S., at any location north of Cape Hatteras, NC (previous record: 946 mb in the 1938 hurricane on Long Island, NY)

Destructive potential of storm surge: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, highest of any hurricane observed since 1969. Previous record: 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003.

Maximum diameter of tropical storm-force winds: 1000 miles, highest for any Atlantic tropical cyclone on record, going back to 1988.

Diameter of ocean with 12' seas at landfall: 1500 miles


Figure 2. Snowfall from Superstorm Sandy hit 36" at locations in West Virginia and North Carolina.
Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Questions on NHC's handling of warnings for Sandy
In the Sandy report, NHC documents that their forecasts of Sandy's track, intensity, and storm surge were all excellent, largely beating the average error margin for forecasts for tropical cyclones made during the previous five years. However, NHC has been criticized for electing not to issue hurricane warnings in advance of Hurricane Sandy for the U.S. Sandy was expected to transition to a non-tropical system before landfall, and NHC opted days in advance to issue high wind warnings and not hurricane warnings for the U.S. It is quite possible that NHC's decision not to put up hurricane warnings cost lives, since the public pays far more attention to hurricane warnings than any other type of wind warning (except tornado warnings.) In the Sandy report, NHC argues that "Intentionally misrepresenting Sandy as a hurricane would have severely damaged the credibility of the NWS and undermined its ability to serve the public for years to come." Another option to properly call Sandy post-tropical but put up hurricane warnings for the coast was also considered, but "a procedure for disseminating post-tropical advisories with tropical warnings had never been developed, tested, or publicized, and the NWS feared that hurriedly crafting and implementing untested procedures could easily break automated vendor software and disrupt the flow of information to users at a critical moment." The report acknowledges that due to the unique situation posed by Hurricane Sandy, a change to the hurricane warning definition is needed. They propose: The hurricane warning definition would be broadened to apply to systems after their tropical cyclone stage has ended, thus allowing hurricane or tropical storm watches and warnings to remain in effect for post-tropical cyclones. In addition, the NWS would ensure the continuity of service in any situation by allowing the NHC to issue advisories through the post-tropical cyclone stage as long as the system poses a significant threat to life and property. A second proposal: "set a target date of 2015 for NOAA to implement explicit storm surge watches and warnings, a goal NOAA has been working toward for several years. Multiple studies have shown significant confusion on the part of the public regarding their storm surge risk, and highlighted the need for improved communication of this hazard. With the implementation of a storm surge warning, the NWS will warn explicitly for the phenomenon that presents the greatest weather-related threat for a massive loss of life in a single day." Both of these changes are ones I hope get adopted as soon as practical, as the warning information given to the public during Sandy could have been much better, potentially saving lives and property.

Spectacular NOVA show tonight: Earth From Space
The PBS NOVA series is airing a two hour special tonight (Wednesday), called "Earth From Space", a spectacular new space-based vision of our planet. The promo on the website advertises: Produced in extensive consultation with NASA scientists, NOVA takes data from earth-observing satellites and transforms it into dazzling visual sequences, each one exposing the intricate and surprising web of forces that sustains life on earth. Viewers witness how dust blown from the Sahara fertilizes the Amazon; how a vast submarine "waterfall" off Antarctica helps drive ocean currents around the world; and how the Sun's heating up of the southern Atlantic gives birth to a colossally powerful hurricane. From the microscopic world of water molecules vaporizing over the ocean to the magnetic field that is bigger than Earth itself, the show reveals the astonishing beauty and complexity of our dynamic planet. It should be a great show!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


they mentioned that they may start mentioning it:

LATER IN THE WEEK A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT
MAY UNFOLD FROM EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS 100KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX APPROACHES WHAT SHOULD BE A MORE MOIST/BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT. IF UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS MANAGE TO ADVANCE
SUBSTANTIALLY INLAND AN ORGANIZED SEVERE SCENARIO MAY UNFOLD DURING
THE DAY8 PERIOD. WILL NOT INTRODUCE 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOW ENOUGH THAT THE MAIN THREAT
COULD BE BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.


ECMWF looks a little bit more robust with threat, more warth further north.
I always get a bit nervous when the jet is over 100 KTS and dew points in the 60,s...
502. VR46L
Quoting FtMyersgal:


If the two days of rains for South Florida bring enough precip that will definately help our situations. We are currently abnormally dry



Yeah , it must be a couple of months since you have had decent rain Gal !! But the forecast is very hopeful for you!!
I got 1 inch so far and the big rain is coming soon!!:)
Quoting VR46L:



Yeah , it must be a couple of months since you have had decent rain Gal !! But the forecast is very hopeful for you!!
504. VR46L
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I got 1 inch so far and the big rain is coming soon!!:)


Happy Days!!!
505. txjac


Woman in labor SLEDS to hospital using a car luggage carrier pulled by five neighbors


I know this is off topic but still weather related.
Look what can happen when people pull together!

Compliments of the Daily Mail

Nemo story
Wow, I'm so excited. What are the odds of two models upgrading in the same day?

We had the NOGAPS upgrade to the new NAVGEM yesterday, but I just found out that the Canadian CMC/GEM model had an upgrade at 12z yesterday as well, and it's a big one according to them:

NOCN03 CWAO 071810
GENOT ADMIN. NO. 001

VERSION FRANCAISE DE CE GENOT NO. 002
FRENCH VERSION OF THIS GENOT NO. 002

MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS-
VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE
ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THE
CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS
GDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE:

- CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OF
ADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL
RESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM:
- IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODEL
PHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTC
RUNS.

OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOW
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESE
IMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE IN
A DECADE.
A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS AT
CMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS. OTHER FORECAST SYSTEMS WHICH
DEPEND ON GDPS OUTPUT ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE GDPS-3.0.0. CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS) TO
HARMONIZE IT WITH THE NEW GDPS, AND THE RDPS FORECASTS ARE ALSO
IMPROVED AS A RESULT, SO ITS VERSION NUMBER IS ALSO INCREASED TO
3.1.0, AND IS HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS RDPS-3.1.0.
Quoting RussianWinter:
HEY GUYS!

I DON'T BELIEVE IT!


I CLICKED ON THE FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY ON THE WEATHER.GOV WEBSITE AND FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER I SEE NON CAPS TEXT!


Sweet


000
FXUS62 KTAE 141107
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
607 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2013


.NEAR TERM [Today]...

Broad troughing through the middle and upper levels sprawl the
entire CONUS this morning. At the surface, the Tri-state region lies
between two cold fronts. The main front, with the sharpest
temperature and dewpoint gradient, lies across north-central Florida,
while a weaker reinforcing essentially bisects the CWA. Behind
the secondary front, high pressure is overspreading the Southeast.
Light showers, being supported by a low/mid level shortwave trough
axis, are ongoing ahead of the secondary front. Expect the low QPF
showers to remain confined to the southeast Big Bend and Apalachee
Bay through the day. The rather solid upper level cloud deck will
likely persist through much of the afternoon, not beginning to
clear our western counties until late this afternoon. Thus, with
the clouds not expected to diminish any time soon, cool temperatures
are expected this afternoon. Have lowered the expected max temperatures
this morning to show much of the Tri-State region lingering in the
middle to upper 50s. The 60 degree mark may be realized across
portions of southeast Alabama where sunshine will be allowed in
once the clouds clear this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The broad trough (including a slightly out-of-phase southern stream)
over much of the CONUS is forecast to become much more phased and
sharper as a polar vortex becomes centered over the Great Lakes by
Friday night. The deep long wave trough will translate quickly
eastward over the eastern CONUS on Saturday. This type of pattern
is associated with arctic intrusions, something we haven`t had so
far this mild winter.

For tonight, the rain band (currently affecting the southern half of
our forecast area) will finally exit our forecast area. Although
the airmass across our forecast area isn`t especially cold,
conditions will still be favorable enough for fairly strong
radiational cooling, and patchy frost is possible in the normally
colder, inland sites away from the cities. On Friday, a dry arctic
cold front will begin approaching our region from the northwest.
Skies will remain mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s (near
average). The cold front will pass southeastward through the area
late Friday night and Saturday morning, ushering in much colder,
drier air for the weekend.

With model consensus 850 mb temperatures well below freezing over
much of the forecast area Saturday, and areas of clouds, the MOS
from all the models seem too warm (mid to upper 50s). Our forecast
highs are at least 5 deg cooler than MOS consensus, and could
still be a bit warm depending on (a) how much cloud cover there is
and (b) whether or not the main thrust of cold air gets shunted
slightly to our east (which has happened several times so far this
winter). Most of the NWP guidance shows enough moisture and Q-G
forcing (ahead of the long wave trough axis) for an increase in
clouds Saturday behind the cold front. Of these solutions, the
00 UTC NAM has the most impressive moisture/omega fields. It`s
possible that a brief snow flurry or two could occur in our
Southeast AL or South GA zones before the trough axis passes
by later in the day. However, any impact from this would be
negligible (limited deep layer moisture and relatively warm
surface temperatures). It`s just a bit of a curiosity at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...

The long term guidance is in reasonable agreement on a deep trough
amplifying across the eastern states on Saturday. The main impact
for the local area will be the potential for a freeze on Saturday
night and Sunday night. The next potential for a widespread rain is
expected to come with another cold front around Tuesday.
Maybe the Gov't finally left the DOS behind and got new computers. Good afternoon everyone. Staying on topic, the weather here in the Keys is gorgeous. Really like Spring Break weather we have been having. I hope the forcast is correct for the rain we are anticipating tonight and cooler temps.
The GFS is showing snow again for this weekend?.Can someone clear this up?.
Quoting kwgirl:
Maybe the Gov't finally left the DOS behind and got new computers. Good afternoon everyone. Staying on topic, the weather here in the Keys is gorgeous. Really like Spring Break weather we have been having. I hope the forcast is correct for the rain we are anticipating tonight and cooler temps.



it might just be that station, I think one or more offices in the ohio valley didnt use caps before, and one even used a different font.
Here at my local offices, it's still all caps.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Can't wait for tomorrow when all that Valentines candy goes on sale. I'm gonna get fat!!! :D


I load up on candy too. :)
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
When I went to bed last night, here in Helena Montana, there was a forecast of maybe up to an inch of snow.

I get up at 5 o'clock and there is 6 inches on the ground.

I'm not a meteorologist, but I *DO* know that moisture does not mysteriously materialize in the atmosphere. It was somewhere yesterday, and on its way here.

Well, as you said, you're not a meteorologist. That might explain why you are having a tough time understanding snow accumulation forecasting which is notoriously difficult for any forecaster, and probably more-so in mountainous areas.
Quoting Levi32:
Wow, I'm so excited. What are the odds of two models upgrading in the same day?

We had the NOGAPS upgrade to the new NAVGEM yesterday, but I just found out that the Canadian CMC/GEM model had an upgrade at 12z yesterday as well, and it's a big one according to them:

NOCN03 CWAO 071810
GENOT ADMIN. NO. 001

VERSION FRANCAISE DE CE GENOT NO. 002
FRENCH VERSION OF THIS GENOT NO. 002

MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS-
VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE
ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THE
CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS
GDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE:

- CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OF
ADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL
RESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM:
- IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODEL
PHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTC
RUNS.

OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOW
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESE
IMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE IN
A DECADE.
A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS AT
CMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS. OTHER FORECAST SYSTEMS WHICH
DEPEND ON GDPS OUTPUT ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE GDPS-3.0.0. CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS) TO
HARMONIZE IT WITH THE NEW GDPS, AND THE RDPS FORECASTS ARE ALSO
IMPROVED AS A RESULT, SO ITS VERSION NUMBER IS ALSO INCREASED TO
3.1.0, AND IS HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS RDPS-3.1.0.


Hi Levi, Do you have the links to both to see all the information? Hopefully,both models do better in the Tropics.
513. VR46L
I am kind of interested in this



Asteroid 2012 DA14 – Earth Flyby Reality Check


Artist interpetation of an Astroid passing close to earth

re: 426. RussianWinter 8:31 AM CST on February 14, 2013

FWIW -- The Tallahassee NWS Forecast Office has been posting their AFD's in small text for at least a year and half now, probably longer - I have a saved file as such dated Oct 8 2011...
Quoting Levi32:
Wow, I'm so excited. What are the odds of two models upgrading in the same day?

We had the NOGAPS upgrade to the new NAVGEM yesterday, but I just found out that the Canadian CMC/GEM model had an upgrade at 12z yesterday as well, and it's a big one according to them:

NOCN03 CWAO 071810
GENOT ADMIN. NO. 001

VERSION FRANCAISE DE CE GENOT NO. 002
FRENCH VERSION OF THIS GENOT NO. 002

MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS-
VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE
ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THE
CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS
GDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE:

- CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OF
ADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL
RESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM:
- IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODEL
PHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTC
RUNS.

OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOW
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESE
IMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE IN
A DECADE.
A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS AT
CMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS. OTHER FORECAST SYSTEMS WHICH
DEPEND ON GDPS OUTPUT ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE GDPS-3.0.0. CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS) TO
HARMONIZE IT WITH THE NEW GDPS, AND THE RDPS FORECASTS ARE ALSO
IMPROVED AS A RESULT, SO ITS VERSION NUMBER IS ALSO INCREASED TO
3.1.0, AND IS HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS RDPS-3.1.0.
Im sorry Levi but i don't understand most of that.
Simply Beautiful......................
Um...may I have my question answered please?.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Say!

When I went to bed last night, here in Helena Montana...



What I DO know is that if I don't see media coverage of a loud and decidedly public disowning of everything above 'janitor' at the Great Falls office by 5 PM Monday evening, *I'M* going to start loudly asking just why do we fund the National Weather Service when there are plenty of other private providers that can do a better job cheaper?

There's a lot I don't know. But I *DO* know lobbying.

They maybe can't be immediately fired. But until they can be, they can be reassigned to Siberia, Mozambique, or Watts.

Do it.


Ummm...

Have you ever considered that from the viewpoint of New York or Washington, D.C., Montana IS their equivalant of Siberia?

Could be you already HAVE one of the helpful reassigned already, enjoy!

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Levi, Do you have the links to both to see all the information? Hopefully,both models do better in the Tropics.


Full Release Notes
Quoting washingtonian115:
Um...may I have my question answered please?.
................
Quoting LargoFl:
................
That's strange.The weather forecast for my area shows no snow in Sunday.
Well, apparently the new CMC's intensity bias in tropical cyclones has been reduced, but not much improvement otherwise:

5.3 TROPICAL CYCLONES (TCS)
TCS FROM THE SUMMER CYCLE FORECASTS WERE TRACKED OVER THE ATLANTIC,
EAST PACIFIC AND WEST PACIFIC BASINS, AND COMPARED TO BEST TRACK
DATA PROVIDED BY THE US NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE AND THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. OVERALL, THE GDPS-3.0.0 SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TC HIT RATE, AND A REDUCTION IN THE INTENSITY BIAS
,
RESULTING FROM THE INCREASED RESOLUTION OF BOTH THE FORECAST AND
ANALYSES COMPONENTS. THIS IS MORE EVIDENT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
EAST PACIFIC BASINS, WHERE SMALL-SCALE TCS OCCUR MORE FREQUENTLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE FOUND IN THE AVERAGE TC POSITION ERRORS
OR IN THE NUMBER OF FALSE ALARMS
.
Anyone have any thoughts on how SST's are right now compared to last few years (in the GOM)- at first glance they seem a bit warmer to me but then again I could always use new glasses - Just not sure if its warming up faster or not. The loop looks like its warmer by far than normal.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Well, as you said, you're not a meteorologist. That might explain why you are having a tough time understanding snow accumulation forecasting which is notoriously difficult for any forecaster, and probably more-so in mountainous areas.


LOL, can you imagine the shock experienced by both residents and meteorologists all along the TX-LA coasts at the sight of such prodigeous snow we got dumped with on tomorrow's date, Feb 15 1895?

Houma LA's all-time record, 16"... Or the single digit (to below zero) all-time record lows that still stand from yesterday's / today's date, 4 years later in 1899? (5F here)...

Darn, I miss the good old days of truly cold February weather in SE LA...
;)
Quoting Levi32:
Well, apparently the new CMC's intensity bias in tropical cyclones has been reduced, but not much improvement otherwise:

5.3 TROPICAL CYCLONES (TCS)
TCS FROM THE SUMMER CYCLE FORECASTS WERE TRACKED OVER THE ATLANTIC,
EAST PACIFIC AND WEST PACIFIC BASINS, AND COMPARED TO BEST TRACK
DATA PROVIDED BY THE US NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE AND THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. OVERALL, THE GDPS-3.0.0 SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TC HIT RATE, AND A REDUCTION IN THE INTENSITY BIAS
,
RESULTING FROM THE INCREASED RESOLUTION OF BOTH THE FORECAST AND
ANALYSES COMPONENTS. THIS IS MORE EVIDENT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
EAST PACIFIC BASINS, WHERE SMALL-SCALE TCS OCCUR MORE FREQUENTLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE FOUND IN THE AVERAGE TC POSITION ERRORS
OR IN THE NUMBER OF FALSE ALARMS
.
So in other words the CMC is sti a crappy model.
lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
So in other words the CMC is sti a crappy model.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So in other words the CMC is sti a crappy model.


Supposedly very significant improvements were made to winter forecasting, particularly over North America.
Quoting Levi32:


Supposedly very significant improvements were made to winter forecasting, particularly over North America.
We'll see in the coming weeks/winters.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Say!

When I went to bed last night, here in Helena Montana, there was a forecast of maybe up to an inch of snow.

I get up at 5 o'clock and there is 6 inches on the ground.

I'm not a meteorologist, but I *DO* know that moisture does not mysteriously materialize in the atmosphere. It was somewhere yesterday, and on its way here.

And I'm not an economist. So I have no clue why a bunch of guys should be paid 70 grand a year plus benefits when there are plenty of other private weather forecasters that can do as bad a job forecasting.

So, beyond that, I don't know who. I don't know what.

What I DO know is that if I don't see media coverage of a loud and decidedly public disowning of everything above 'janitor' at the Great Falls office by 5 PM Monday evening, *I'M* going to start loudly asking just why do we fund the National Weather Service when there are plenty of other private providers that can do a better job cheaper?

There's a lot I don't know. But I *DO* know lobbying.

They maybe can't be immediately fired. But until they can be, they can be reassigned to Siberia, Mozambique, or Watts.

Do it.
Not to doubt your word, but are you sure about your figures? Because NWS Great Falls says Helena Regional Airport received 0.05" of precipitation between about 5:00a Wednesday and 5:00a today (when you said you woke up). At the snow-to-liquid average of 10:1, that's only half an inch of snow. And even an incredibly dry snow of 30:1--highly doubtful with temperatures in the 20s and relative humidities around 90%--would render an inch-and-a-half of snow, far from the six inches you said you received. Just out of curiosity, how far from that airport are you? I'm asking, of course, since you might just want to make sure your numbers are completely accurate before storming city hall to jump start your "Fire all the overpaid government weather bums!" campaign. ;-)

And a secondary question: what do you mean by "they can be reassigned to...Watts"?
532. VR46L
The Gulf looking full of clouds and rain.... A pleasant sight for Drought fearful Floridans

Models (CMC/GFS)are trending back to the potential snow off the east coast this weekend..

12z CMC


Quoting DocNDswamp:


LOL, can you imagine the shock experienced by both residents and meteorologists all along the TX-LA coasts at the sight of such prodigeous snow we got dumped with on tomorrow's date, Feb 15 1895?

Houma LA's all-time record, 16"... Or the single digit (to below zero) all-time record lows that still stand from yesterday's / today's date, 4 years later in 1899? (5F here)...

Darn, I miss the good old days of truly cold February weather in SE LA...
;)

That was one of my favorite things about moving to Louisiana.... the depth of winter really isn't "winter." We dont get clobbered with snow, and I don't see temps near 0F.
Heck, 16" was a big deal in Iowa. Weather like that can stay 104 years ago.
JMA Model..



- - - - - - - - 13Feb2006 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13Feb2007 SST

- - - - - - - - 13Feb2008 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13Feb2009 SST

- - - - - - - - 13Feb2010 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13Feb2011 SST

- - - - - - - - 13Feb2012 SST - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13Feb2013 SST
Quoting ScottLincoln:

That was one of my favorite things about moving to Louisiana.... the depth of winter really isn't "winter." We dont get clobbered with snow, and I don't see temps near 0F.
Heck, 16" was a big deal in Iowa. Weather like that can stay 104 years ago.


Indeed, what's so unique with the 1895 coastal blizzard, it resulted in all-time state record snowfall total being set along the "milder" coastal regions (ie, Rayne LA w 24"), far more than northern portions of the state where snowfall is more frequent... might be true in TX as well where Beaumont tallied 30-32" amt range...

Rather doubtful for any snow this year near here. I'll be curious just to see if get another freeze come Sunday morn (or beyond), the last being on Dec 30th for SE LA... an entire January without a freezing temp... LOL, then again, DJF Winter '92-93 recorded no freezing temps here, until Superstorm '93 hit in March!
Quoting ncstorm:
JMA Model..





Thanks for sharing. What does the JMA Model stand for? is it reliable? and does it have a snow accumulation map, similar to the GFS which is now predicting a swath of 3-6 inches from No VA to Southern New England.
Japan Meteorological Agency
If we're questioning the complexity of snowfall forecasts in the Rocky mountains and Nea's questioning of Montana Zephyr's post about snowfall totals in his own town, should we question this simple mathematical error? Don't you mean 114 years vs 104 years?



Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 3:00 PM EST Thursday 14 February 2013
Condition: Light Snow
Pressure: 29.8 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 3 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 34.0°F
Dewpoint: 31.5°F
Humidity: 90 %
Wind: S 8 mph
@ Chaser97 can U put up the link to your blog last night.
I fell asleep on my chair.


Very high moisture levels for the winter, the atmosphere won't hold much more moisture than what is down around South Florida right now for this time of year. The shortwave will provide plenty of lift, some places that manage a slower moving thunderstorm will see 2 to 3 inches very quickly.

I'm actually glad to see the greatest upper support and lift occurring over South Florida, they need the rain even more than Central and North Florida.


Here in Tallhassee its shockingly cold after being well above average for a while, temps are still stuck in the 40's at mid day with a stiff winter breeze. We'll have a couple of nights in the 27 to 29 degree range coming up this weekend, not looking forward to that. I like cool weather in the 40's and 50's, but I hate 20's especially by mid to late February, lol.
The GFS has a 90 knot LLJ for the outbreak next week. Never seen wind shear so strong at that level.
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
east central Palm Beach County in South Florida.

* Until 430 PM EST

* at 334 PM EST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 11
miles west of Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge... and moving
northeast at 35 mph.

* The storm will affect...
Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge...
Wellington...
Greenacres City...
Haverhill...
Lake Worth...
Palm Beach...
and surrounding communities.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds in excess of 58 mph and
or large hail. Frequent to excessive lightning and heavy rainfall is
also possible. If the storm approaches your location, seek shelter in
an enclosed building on the lowest floor and stay away from windows.

Report severe weather or damage to the nearest law enforcement agency
or your County emergency management. They will relay your report to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. Or you can
also call the National Weather Service in Miami directly at
305.229.4528 to report severe weather.

The snow is shifting back towards the coast...higher snowfall accumulations according to the GFS and NAM (I know)

Currently working on a map to show this up
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS has a 90 knot LLJ for the outbreak next week. Never seen wind shear so strong at that level.


Hi TA! I like your new profile picture. :-)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
@ Chaser97 can U put up the link to your blog last night.
I fell asleep on my chair.

Here ya go, link.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS has a 90 knot LLJ for the outbreak next week. Never seen wind shear so strong at that level.

If that were to verify, next week would be interesting at the least. I would get over 6" of snow from that storm too if that run verified. I really can't wait for break now.
Quoting Midweststorm:
Anyone have any thoughts on how SST's are right now compared to last few years (in the GOM)- at first glance they seem a bit warmer to me but then again I could always use new glasses - Just not sure if its warming up faster or not. The loop looks like its warmer by far than normal.
It never cooled down. I think we have had two days of cold weather this winter. Even the fish are not migrating. That's how we monitor the seasons here in the Keys.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
@ Chaser97 can U put up the link to your blog last night.
I fell asleep on my chair.


you fell asleep in your chair? you must have been exausted. :-)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
east central Palm Beach County in South Florida.

* Until 430 PM EST

* at 334 PM EST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 11
miles west of Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge... and moving
northeast at 35 mph.

* The storm will affect...
Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge...
Wellington...
Greenacres City...
Haverhill...
Lake Worth...
Palm Beach...
and surrounding communities.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds in excess of 58 mph and
or large hail. Frequent to excessive lightning and heavy rainfall is
also possible. If the storm approaches your location, seek shelter in
an enclosed building on the lowest floor and stay away from windows.

Report severe weather or damage to the nearest law enforcement agency
or your County emergency management. They will relay your report to
the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. Or you can
also call the National Weather Service in Miami directly at
305.229.4528 to report severe weather.




About 70% of severe weather in South Florida never gets any mention of severe in the forecast or watch boxes. that's why only Floridians know how it can be, lol.

You guys just get the old "see text" forecasts like today, lol.
Thrilled beyond belief to see this rain in the Cape today -- first for me in almost exactly a month. At least an inch at the house with more still falling. With the driest part of Dry Season about to start, no telling how long this will have to last us.

Re: #546 -- impressive blob of deep heat in the Caribbean this year....
Quoting Jedkins01:



About 70% of severe weather in South Florida never gets any mention of severe in the forecast or watch boxes. that's why only Floridians know how it can be, lol.

You guys just get the old "see text" forecasts like today, lol.
In other words, we rely on watching the skies. Luckily we have radar.

543. Jedkins01 3:31 PM EST on February 14, 2013


That moistest part of the atmosphere is right on top of me :(
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Thrilled beyond belief to see this rain in the Cape today -- first for me in almost exactly a month. At least an inch at the house with more still falling. With the driest part of Dry Season about to start, no telling how long this will have to last us.

Re: #546 -- impressive blob of deep heat in the Caribbean this year....
isnt this wonderful!! we surely needed this rain badly
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Does anyone else have problems getting the ECMWF to load on the WU wundermap past 150 or so hours?


Yes, this is a bug I'm hoping will get fixed by next week.

Jeff Masters
Thanks Doc!
Not a drop of moisture in S. Broward as of yet. Hope it stays away til after dinner tonight.
Quoting LargoFl:
isnt this wonderful!! we surely needed this rain badly
I'm glad for you Largo. Just save some for us. The keys need it bad.
EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013

FLC099-142130-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130214T2130Z/
PALM BEACH FL-
349 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EST
FOR EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 347 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR LOXAHATCHEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN AN INTERIOR
ROOM IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOUSE OR BUSINESS IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED.
Hopefully this sinks more southward tomorrow Kwgirl..
Quoting WunderGirl12:


you fell asleep in your chair? you must have been exausted. :-)


I ended up sleeping listening to music..I have a really soft chair.

btw. I replied again
Quoting NyFan1:


Thanks for sharing. What does the JMA Model stand for? is it reliable? and does it have a snow accumulation map, similar to the GFS which is now predicting a swath of 3-6 inches from No VA to Southern New England.


Its the model from the Japan Meterological Agency..this winter I have seen it perform with the GFS so its doing alright..right now though, the models are flip flopping back and forth with the east coast storm and this is just less than three days out..

there is a precip map but
I havent seen a snow map..here is where you can find the different maps of it..

Quoting kwgirl:
In other words, we rely on watching the skies. Luckily we have radar.


exactly, you have to at least have some knowledge of weather in Florida! Ironically many of the days we do get watch boxes really don't end up being any worse than just a hot summer day if you line up along a sea breeze collision! The difference is the sea breeze storms have twice the lightning and heavier rain so even if they aren't severe do to no dynamics, the thunderstorm cells themselves are more powerful than the storms we get in cold fronts so they feel more severe!
Quoting indianrivguy:

543. Jedkins01 3:31 PM EST on February 14, 2013


That moistest part of the atmosphere is right on top of me :(


Why the sad face? Don't you want rain?
Quoting LargoFl:
Hopefully this sinks more southward tomorrow Kwgirl..
It is supposed to stall over us so I am hoping it gives us rain. That was the last word I heard around lunch time today. And as we all know, wait a minute and the weather will change:)
yep sweet Oranges coming right up this weekend......
I hope the GFS thinks it's April Fools Day.

It has 60F dewpoints across a region with 70-80 knot low-level winds with...Effective Storm Relative Helicity values over 1100(!).

This is across Alabama at the end of next week.

wow this cold reaches pretty far south huh...........FREEZE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
242 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013

FLZ063-066-070-152000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND COLLIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMDALE...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...
LA BELLE...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...IMMOKALEE
242 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING...

COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHILE WINDS RELAX.

TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK OR JUST BELOW FOR A
FEW HOURS BOTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF A FREEZE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS RELAX UNDER A CLEAR
SKY.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES ON THIS UPCOMING COLD
WAVE.

$$

GREGORIA
Rainfall as usual is heavier than radar estimates, Punta Gorda has recorded over 1.5 inches so far, the radar says they had about a half inch, lol.

Areas that say 1 inch on radar are really around 2 inches then. It's long lived and widespread, exactly what south Florida needs.

Even the Tampa Bay area has had about 1 to 2 inches in some places combining yesterday's rain with today's.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AS WELL AS OVER NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
ISLAND CHAIN. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD WILL BE CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Rainfall as usual is heavier than radar estimates, Punta Gorda has recorded over 1.5 inches so far, the radar says they had about a half inch, lol.

Areas that say 1 inch on radar are really around 2 inches then. It's long lived and widespread, exactly what south Florida needs.

Even the Tampa Bay area has had about 1 to 2 inches in some places combining yesterday's rain with today's.
You know, we can get 24 inches in 24 hours, have some flooding and standing water, but once it is gone, it is gone. We have coral rock and lots of water surrounding the Keys. We used to watch it pass us by raining on the ocean, just where we don't need it. So even if we get a good rain, it will have a short term affect. I love the rain, but I am glad most of it falls on the mainland where our aquifer is located.
Very heavy rain right now...First time I have heard thunder in quite a few months... The ground is so dry the water is ponding..But I'll take it... Thank you up above.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I hope the GFS thinks it's April Fools Day.

It has 60F dewpoints across a region with 70-80 knot low-level winds with...Effective Storm Relative Helicity values over 1100(!).

This is across Alabama at the end of next week.



I like your maps after all
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
426 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DELRAY BEACH...BOYNTON BEACH...

* UNTIL 530 PM EST

* AT 425 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VILLAGE OF
GOLF...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VILLAGE OF GOLF...
BOYNTON BEACH...
OCEAN RIDGE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM
EXTERIOR WALLS AND WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

&&
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
426 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DELRAY BEACH...BOYNTON BEACH...

* UNTIL 530 PM EST

* AT 425 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VILLAGE OF
GOLF...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VILLAGE OF GOLF...
BOYNTON BEACH...
OCEAN RIDGE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM
EXTERIOR WALLS AND WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

&&


TA, thank you SO much for posting this. I am near that area, and I was unaware there was a warning. Thanks for posting. :-)

WunderGirl12
cool day for all of fla

585. VR46L
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Very heavy rain right now...First time I have heard thunder in quite a few months... The ground is so dry the water is ponding..But I'll take it... Thank you up above.


I am getting the sense alot of Floridians in the Peninsula are euphoric today !! Couple of more days to come too .

BTW Change of Mind....LOL
Tornado warning for my area, Boynton Beach and Delray Beach... My rain gauge shows at least one inch in the last 35 minutes...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Tornado warning for my area, Boynton Beach and Delray Beach... My rain gauge shows alost one inch in the last 35 minutes...


I've gotten about 3 inches all day. O___O Quite a lot.
The tornado threat should be over very soon as this storm is about to move offshore.
Quoting WunderGirl12:


I've gotten about 3 inches all day. O___O Quite a lot.
Where are you WunderGirl?
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE 95
_________________________

Possibly a major snowstorm again... depending on the track of the storm...

Snowfall forecast...this could be what to expect or the high end forecast.
Heavy snow for Northern Michigan as well.

591. VR46L
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Tornado warning for my area, Boynton Beach and Delray Beach... My rain gauge shows at least one inch in the last 35 minutes...


It looks nasty in that area

Tornado warning discontinued for my area
Quoting VR46L:


It looks nasty in that area



And I'm in that area too. :'-( raining like mad right now. :-( I hate rainy Valentine's Day's.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Tornado warning discontinued for my area


That is great! :-)
Quoting WunderGirl12:


And I'm in that area too. :'-( raining like mad right now. :-( I hate rainy Valentine's Day's.
WunderGirl....Where are you?
596. VR46L
Quoting WunderGirl12:


And I'm in that area too. :'-( raining like mad right now. :-( I hate rainy Valentine's Day's.


You take Care Wundergirl :)

I bet you got loads of cards and emails today !!!

Oh to be Young!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
WunderGirl....Where are you?


Daytona. It's a deluge here. It's clearing up though.
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Daytona. It's a deluge here. It's clearing up though.
WunderGirl...You are 3 hours north of me
sandy mangled trees in se cuba sure wasnt alot of photos released of the damage.
whoops...they issued lake effect watches...need to put that into my map now..
Quoting VR46L:


You take Care Wundergirl :)

I bet you got loads of cards and emails today !!!

Oh to be Young!


Thanks VR46L! I will defiently stay safe. (I've got things to do people to see, so I'll stay safe!) I have recived about 4 emails, and no cards. However, a boy in my class asked me to be his Valentine! :-) (I'm homeschooled, so the cards and such aren't a super big thing. I get more e-mails than cards)

WunderGirl12
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
WunderGirl...You are 3 hours north of me


Wow! :-) It's still really rainy here. Plus, my weather radio screamed at me, so I going to stay safe tonight anyways. :-)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I hope the GFS thinks it's April Fools Day.

It has 60F dewpoints across a region with 70-80 knot low-level winds with...Effective Storm Relative Helicity values over 1100(!).

This is across Alabama at the end of next week.




1100? That is absurd, let's hope it's nowhere near that.
Ok...This is official and the most accurate total rainfall at my house in Palm Beach county Florida... I have received 1 and 3/4 inches of rain since 4:06 pm today... There may be a few flaws in that statement...Let me explain... Matt next door threw a Bud Light can over the fence at me and it tilted my rain gauge a bit... And this big freekin' Iguana that lives in my Ficus bush came up for a drink or two...BUT...I swear.. This is an accurate total for Palm Beach county
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Ok...This is official and the most accurate total rainfall at my house in Palm Beach county Florida... I have received 1 and 3/4 inches of rain since 4:06 pm today... There may be a few flaws in that statement...Let me explain... Matt next door threw a Bud Light can over the fence at me and it tilted my rain gauge a bit... And this big freekin' Iguana that lives in my Ficus bush came up for a drink or two...BUT...I swear.. This is an accurate total for Palm Beach county


I am sorry, but LOL! An iquana takes a drink, someone throws a beer bottle at it, and you think thats pretty accurate. :-P lol

well everyone, i'm out for the night. :-P
Quoting WunderGirl12:


I am sorry, but LOL! An iquana takes a drink, someone throws a beer bottle at it, and you think thats pretty accurate. :-P lol

LOL........ Oh My
Quoting Jedkins01:



1100? That is absurd, let's hope it's nowhere near that.

Yeah.

The GFS actually has a maximum of 2500 m2/s2 over Indiana, but that's not in the warm sector.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Tornado warning for my area, Boynton Beach and Delray Beach... My rain gauge shows at least one inch in the last 35 minutes...


Gully Washer....

The Rain Song
Quoting kwgirl:
You know, we can get 24 inches in 24 hours, have some flooding and standing water, but once it is gone, it is gone. We have coral rock and lots of water surrounding the Keys. We used to watch it pass us by raining on the ocean, just where we don't need it. So even if we get a good rain, it will have a short term affect. I love the rain, but I am glad most of it falls on the mainland where our aquifer is located.


Yeah that makes sense. I don't know much about the Keys, I do know that they do get significantly less rain on average per year than mainland Florida and Cuba, I think something like 35 inches instead of 60 inches in South Florida. Does it get really dry there sometimes or does the fact that it's a long chain of small islands help reduce the affects of drought?

From I do know, it often can go really long without raining there significant even in the summer. But sometimes they'll get a super soaking day of 5 or 10 inches in a day and then it won't again for a while?
Quoting WunderGirl12:


I am sorry, but LOL! An iquana takes a drink, someone throws a beer bottle at it, and you think thats pretty accurate. :-P lol



just another day in south Florida...
Sure would hate to be on that cruise ship
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Ok...This is official and the most accurate total rainfall at my house in Palm Beach county Florida... I have received 1 and 3/4 inches of rain since 4:06 pm today... There may be a few flaws in that statement...Let me explain... Matt next door threw a Bud Light can over the fence at me and it tilted my rain gauge a bit... And this big freekin' Iguana that lives in my Ficus bush came up for a drink or two...BUT...I swear.. This is an accurate total for Palm Beach county



I'm guessing that's what a typical day or experience is like for weather observers in South Florida, beer cans and iguanas interfering with instruments, lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah.

The GFS actually has a maximum of 2500 m2/s2 over Indiana, but that's not in the warm sector.


Insane, if those parameters were to actually verify, well lets not even think about it.
Quoting WunderGirl12:


I am sorry, but LOL! An iquana takes a drink, someone throws a beer bottle at it, and you think thats pretty accurate. :-P lol

I'm not Blonde..OK???
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Ok...This is official and the most accurate total rainfall at my house in Palm Beach county Florida... I have received 1 and 3/4 inches of rain since 4:06 pm today... There may be a few flaws in that statement...Let me explain... Matt next door threw a Bud Light can over the fence at me and it tilted my rain gauge a bit... And this big freekin' Iguana that lives in my Ficus bush came up for a drink or two...BUT...I swear.. This is an accurate total for Palm Beach county

You sure you didn't also have a drink. LOL
Quoting AussieStorm:

You sure you didn't also have a drink. LOL


Hey Aussie!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sure would hate to be on that cruise ship

A person not to far from me is on that ship, and it is moving again.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Sure would hate to be on that cruise ship



I would have jump off a long time a go
Quoting wxchaser97:

a person not to far from me is on that ship, and it is moving again.


Great to see the weather isn't a factor in that cruise and they have a tug out there.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I'm not Blonde..OK???


LOL! I didn't say you were blonde! :-P
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I'm not Blonde..OK???


I am!
Quoting indianrivguy:


just another day in south Florida...
And I thought all of the Iguana's got froze out a few years ago... They were falling out of the trees... They are back....Geeez
Quoting AussieStorm:

You sure you didn't also have a drink. LOL


Hi Aussie! :-)
Morning Mate!
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Thanks VR46L! I will defiently stay safe. (I've got things to do people to see, so I'll stay safe!) I have recived about 4 emails, and no cards. However, a boy in my class asked me to be his Valentine! :-) (I'm homeschooled, so the cards and such aren't a super big thing. I get more e-mails than cards)

WunderGirl12



I was homeschooled too, I thank my mom so much for it now that I'm in college, I don't miss the social mess of high school that I never had to deal with, lol.
before:

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Ok...This is official and the most accurate total rainfall at my house in Palm Beach county Florida... I have received 1 and 3/4 inches of rain since 4:06 pm today... There may be a few flaws in that statement...Let me explain... Matt next door threw a Bud Light can over the fence at me and it tilted my rain gauge a bit... And this big freekin' Iguana that lives in my Ficus bush came up for a drink or two...BUT...I swear.. This is an accurate total for Palm Beach county


after:

Quoting WunderGirl12:


I am sorry, but LOL! An iquana takes a drink, someone throws a beer bottle at it, and you think thats pretty accurate. :-P lol



I love how things get blown out of proportion here. First it was a Beer can and it immediately turned into a beer Bottle.
Quoting indianrivguy:


I am!
I know you are IRG...Marty B
Quoting PedleyCA:
before:



after:



I love how things get blown out of proportion here. First it was a Beer can and it immediately turned into a beer Bottle.


yes... no step by step thing...
Quoting Jedkins01:



I was homeschooled too, I thank my mom so much for it now that I'm in college, I don't miss the social mess of high school that I never had to deal with, lol.


I love being homeschooled. I can work at my own pace, and I can meet friends that have more consistent values with my family. The only thing I'm going to miss is high school prom, which is a bummer, since my dream was always to go to the prom. Ohh well...Maybe some boy will ask me out for prom night. :-) Well thats the future. I have to live in the present, and enjoy my life. :-)
Quoting WunderGirl12:


I love being homeschooled. I can work at my own pace, and I can meet friends that have more consistent values with my family. The only thing I'm going to miss is high school prom, which is a bummer, since my dream was always to go to the prom. Ohh well...Maybe some boy will ask me out for prom night. :-) Well thats the future. I have to live in the present, and enjoy my life. :-)


I have three friends that think just like you... and they are homeschooled.
18z GFS still saying snow..

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hey Aussie!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning Mate!
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Hi Aussie! :-)

Good Morning :-)

I am going for a walk, would anyone like to join me. It's a beautiful partly cloudy day here, nice for walking.
the 18z NAM is farther north and confine mostly to the coast

Quoting PedleyCA:
before:



after:



I love how things get blown out of proportion here. First it was a Beer can and it immediately turned into a beer Bottle.
Bottles are so much heavier...They can put your eye out kid...
Quoting ncstorm:
18z GFS still saying snow..



Has snow all the way down to La.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Morning :-)

I am going for a walk, would anyone like to join me. It's a beautiful partly cloudy day here, nice for walking.


wanna take my dog?.. He loves that, but it's too cold here. Enjoy
Quoting indianrivguy:


I am!

Is that blonde hair or just old age showing through. lol
Quoting PedleyCA:
before:



after:



I love how things get blown out of proportion here. First it was a Beer can and it immediately turned into a beer Bottle.
i heard it was keg
Quoting AussieStorm:

Is that blonde hair or just old age showing through. lol


I have always asked myself that..
Quoting AussieStorm:

You sure you didn't also have a drink. LOL
Oh hell no Aussie, well, maybe
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Ok...This is official and the most accurate total rainfall at my house in Palm Beach county Florida... I have received 1 and 3/4 inches of rain since 4:06 pm today... There may be a few flaws in that statement...Let me explain... Matt next door threw a Bud Light can over the fence at me and it tilted my rain gauge a bit... And this big freekin' Iguana that lives in my Ficus bush came up for a drink or two...BUT...I swear.. This is an accurate total for Palm Beach county
.. photo please!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


wanna take my dog?.. He loves that, but it's too cold here. Enjoy

Sure, as long as your dog doesn't stop every 5 seconds to mark his territory.

I wish they'd take down the storm shield over Sydney and it's surrounds.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i heard it was keg


It was the delivery truck the beer was in....lol
some of yall may want to read back on the earlier blogs of 2006/2007..you might learn something and save face..
Quoting ncstorm:
some of yall may want to read back on the earlier blogs of 2004/2005..you might learn something and save face..


This one is 2349..I went back to the very first one...weird stuff on there
Quoting hericane96:


Has snow all the way down to La.


looks like someone forgot to tell the models that winter wasnt over yet..deep south could be looking at some snow in the long range forecasts..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i heard it was keg
That would leave a big scar
The saga of a poor rain gauge somewhere in Florida...A beer truck fell from the sky on top of it and then Godzilla ate it....
Quoting JNCali:
The saga of a poor rain gauge somewhere in Florida...A beer truck fell from the sky on top of it and then Godzilla ate it....


I thought it was an Iguana drinking from it...
This upsets me, I donated to this relief effort.


Bopha survivors protest Philippines aid program

Survivors of Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines have protested against what they claim is the government's corrupt handling of the relief and rehabilitation program following the disaster in December.

Protesters have staged a demonstration in front of the regional social welfare office.

They are accusing the government of mismanaging $US450 million of calamity funds and international aid.

The survivors have reportedly only received relief supplies twice in the past two months.

Meanwhile, bunkhouses built for those who lost their homes have been overpriced.

The Social Welfare Secretary has promised to look into the complaints.

Last month, thousands of villagers blocked a road for ten hours to protest the government's aid program.

Typhoon Bopha slammed into the southern Philippines in December, killing more than 1,000 people dead and leaving hundreds of thousands others displaced.


© ABC 2013
Quoting PedleyCA:


I thought it was an Iguana drinking from it...
I have photo!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Sure, as long as your dog doesn't stop every 5 seconds to mark his territory.

I wish they'd take down the storm shield over Sydney and it's surrounds.



my dog barely does..but likes to sniff everywhere to find the sweet spot.
Quoting JNCali:
I have photo!


Sweet, tabloid fodder.....
Quoting JNCali:
I have photo!

But will the photo get you banned?
the last two GFs models have been hinting at some gulf coast snow within 48hrs have to see if its a trend or just a bleep.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh hell no Aussie, well, maybe


LOL!!

Quoting JNCali:
The saga of a poor rain gauge somewhere in Florida...A beer truck fell from the sky on top of it and then Godzilla ate it....


Godzilla ate it? Ohh my...
so it was a delivery truck that jump the curb
which cause the keg to fly into the air and hit the table
that the beer cans were sitting on
which then launch a can into the air
that landed into the rain gauge
which scared a Iguana that fell from the tree
that walk over and took a drink from the rain in the gauge before you measured it
Quoting WunderGirl12:


I love being homeschooled. I can work at my own pace, and I can meet friends that have more consistent values with my family. The only thing I'm going to miss is high school prom, which is a bummer, since my dream was always to go to the prom. Ohh well...Maybe some boy will ask me out for prom night. :-) Well thats the future. I have to live in the present, and enjoy my life. :-)



Yeah I loved being home schooled too for many of the same reasons. Personally I think the high school prom is overrated, I never went to any proms and honestly I don't care lol. I just like people, not so much big social gatherings that everyone is expected to do, because they often cause drama and silliness.

Enjoy being young and single, I haven't had a girl friend in years, its better to be patient and use wisdom so that you end up spending your life with someone you actually would love your whole life rather than the exterior and short term lies that society says you must experience when your young.

Gino.. some glitch there
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

*cough*This is number one*cough*


whatever that meant.. zero...?
I was going to go for a walk, but it's um raining outside. Oh well, it's only a quick shower.

so we start posting here from zero..did not realize that.
Looks like florida finally got some rain today.Looks like the drought areas this week got some needed rain.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


whatever that meant..

It means you commented on the second blog ever made by Jeff, not the first. Lol.
Just watched Ted... Im afraid of actually getting hit by lighting not by listening to the rumble. What a kidder .
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It means you commented on the second blog ever made by Jeff, not the first. Lol.


see 666.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Time machine to the very first blog of Dr. Masters...
Well, if you really want to go way back, here's an 11/21/1996 screenshot of the first public iteration of Weather Underground's web page:

WU
WU

I can actually remember viewing the site not much later than this...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, if you really want to go way back, here's an 11/21/1996 screenshot of the first public iteration of Weather Underground's web page:

WU
WU

I can actually remember viewing the site not much later than this...


you seem to be a fan of WU even way back then, why did you wait until 2009 to create a handle?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, if you want to go way back, here's an 11/21/1996 screenshot of the first iteration of Weather Underground's web page:

WU
WU

I can actually remember viewing the site not much later than this...


Cool. I remember TWC site, the really old one of 2006 ... Wasn't around here by then for WU

I took long to joint though
Quoting hericane96:
Looks like florida finally got some rain today.Looks like the drought areas this week got some needed rain.

Improvement has definitely occurred.

Quoting ncstorm:


you seem to be a fan of WU even way back then, why did you wait until 2009 to create a handle?
I was busy doing other things...
Quoting Neapolitan:
I was busy doing other things...


I hear ya..

great screen shot..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Improvement has definitely occurred.



You can take all Florida off that drought map after today. Would estimate 3-4 inches in central coastal Martin County - the rain here started earlier than in Palm Beach County and has been continuing all day and getting progressively heavier and steadier - I haven't even been able to bring my trash receptacle in. A swale in the road nearby that only gets flooded 2 or 3 times a year is flooded.
TWC in 2008

The Weather Channel logo that was in place when I was born in 1997, times have changed.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TWC in 2008

Even better: the Weather Channel in 1996:

TWC
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1 hr 23 min 59 sec ago
Clear
75 °F
Clear
Humidity: 23%
Dew Point: 35 °F
Wind: 11 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph
Pressure: 30.02 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 76 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 9.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

I got 74.2 ... Airport (KRAL) is showing 77
That tornado warned storm in S FL today actually did produce a tornado.

2133 1 SE BOYNTON BEACH PALM BEACH FL 2651 8008 EMPLOYEE WITNESSED TORNADO IN STORE PARKING LOT. TREES DOWN ... CARS MOVED ... STOP SIGN BROKEN. (MFL)
Quoting wxchaser97:
That tornado warned storm in S FL today actually did produce a tornado.

2133 1 SE BOYNTON BEACH PALM BEACH FL 2651 8008 EMPLOYEE WITNESSED TORNADO IN STORE PARKING LOT. TREES DOWN ... CARS MOVED ... STOP SIGN BROKEN. (MFL)

Probably just an EF0.

Just a few more. Weather.gov in 2000:

wayback

...the NHC in 1997:

wayback

...and, while we're reminiscing, Google in 1998 when it was still at google.standford.edu:

wayback
I found this in my old files while looking for old pictures.

It was not NHC biggest fail...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Just a few more. Weather.gov in 2000:

wayback

...the NHC in 1997:

wayback

...and, while we're reminiscing, Google in 1998 when it was still at google.standford.edu:

wayback


I did not know about the site had to names besides NHC
688. txjac
Okay ...off to vacumn ...somehow that seems better than looking at what some consider "old" websites ...it's making me feel ...well old ...catch you all later
Quoting Neapolitan:
Just a few more. Weather.gov in 2000:

wayback

...the NHC in 1997:

wayback

...and, while we're reminiscing, Google in 1998 when it was still at google.standford.edu:

wayback


I wonder what is the "GREAT LINKS" about in one of the circles of the NWS IWN image
Quoting txjac:
Okay ...off to vacumn ...somehow that seems better than looking at what some consider "old" websites ...it's making me feel ...well old ...catch you all later


No old is when you pre-date the computer and the internet... lol
2.18 inches today so far and it coming down!!:) and 80% tonight and 70% tomorrow!!:)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE 95
_________________________

Possibly a major snowstorm again... depending on the track of the storm...

Snowfall forecast...this could be what to expect or the high end forecast.
Heavy snow for Northern Michigan as well.


I think your numbers are too high. I still think most of the moisture stays offshore, I doubt many places get over 6". Here's the NWS Taunton map:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think your numbers are too high. I still think most of the moisture stays offshore, I doubt many places get over 6". Here's the NWS Taunton map:



well, you know they are conservative, if at all. It depends on how close the storm moves to the coast... hard thing for the models to deal depending on where the trough sets negative for the "big" storm...

I think I have to knock down the amounts...
12Z GFS..


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well, you know they are conservative. It depends on how close the storm moves to the coast... hard thing for the models to deal depending on where the trough sets negative for the "big" storm...

I think I have to knock down the amounts...

This is a tough storm for sure. Models agreement is far worse than usual this close to the event. If the moisture does stay offshore than this will be another win for the Euro, which has been very consistent on the out to sea solution. If it does end up being a bigger event though than it would be a win for the UKMET and CMC.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

This is a tough storm for sure. Models agreement is far worse than usual this close to the event. If the moisture does stay offshore than this will be another win for the Euro, which has been very consistent on the out to sea solution. If it does end up being a bigger event though than it would be a win for the UKMET and CMC.


I was fooled by the GFS/NAM snow-dump apparently.. But not so sure about that
The GFS is embarrassing itself once again with this storm.

12z:



18z:



No consistency at all.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The GFS is embarrassing itself once again with this storm.

12z:



18z:



No consistency at all.


it better put itself together tomorrow..Just one whole day left for the storm... It it happens
You live in Boston, Worcester, Springfield, Plymouth, Nantucket or where?
359 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK
JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THIS LOW COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY TO
AREAS NEAR NEW YORK CITY AND POINTS EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...


This is a week out on the 18z GFS, the time period when our next possible severe weather event is scheduled for:



Quoting MidMOwx:
Don't you mean 114 years vs 104 years?




I guess so! Thanks for the screenshot.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I guess so! Thanks for the screenshot.


I just realized you are here since 2002.. more than 10 years... wow!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Which county in NY are you?
Quoting PedleyCA:


No old is when you pre-date the computer and the internet... lol


Old is when the first computer you ever saw had to be housed in its own building and had rooms full of reel to reel tapes and walls full of slots with punchcards. The internet didn't happen till decades later. :)

I'd be sad about that, except that I also got to see Neil Armstrong walk on the moon live and I got to see Jimi Hendrix in concert, so it's all good. :D
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is a week out on the 18z GFS, the time period when our next possible severe weather event is scheduled for:




Little change from the 12z. Still an unbelievable amount of wind shear and ESRH.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Which county in NY are you?


I live in two places... Right now I'm in Norwalk, CT but I also go to spend time in southern West Chester County, NY, specifically New Rochelle just north of NYC
From Hades'...


Nemo is there! Europe adopted the name

wow...the 12Z GFS had big snow for the cities...18 GFS nothing..

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I live in two places... Right now I'm in Norwalk, CT but I also go to spend time in southern West Chester County, NY, specifically New Rochelle just north of NYC


You might find this radio station interesting.
New York Weather 87.5
711. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
From Hades'...


Nemo is there! Europe adopted the name




You gotta be kidding me. Oh I see its in brackets...

The BBC never once called it that name they referred to it as a Nor'easter ..

Correction BBC Internet Did refer to it as Nemo ...Which is highly surprising

Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Old is when the first computer you ever saw had to be housed in its own building and had rooms full of reel to reel tapes and walls full of slots with punchcards. The internet didn't happen till decades later. :)

So--What was your own first computer? Mine was a Commodore Vic 20. You hooked it up to your TV screen and played Scott Adams (all text) games.
Alright guys..I'll be back later
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Old is when the first computer you ever saw had to be housed in its own building and had rooms full of reel to reel tapes and walls full of slots with punchcards. The internet didn't happen till decades later. :)

I'd be sad about that, except that I also got to see Neil Armstrong walk on the moon live and I got to see Jimi Hendrix in concert, so it's all good. :D


I worked with Mainframe computers long before I had a PC or even knew how to work one. IBM 4341 (1982). They still had the tapes and we had a punch card machine but rarely use it. Just a huge room of tape drive and disk drives. The tape drives were the size of refrigerators and disk drives were the size of washing machines. Ah, the Good Old Days...... lol

Edit: my first computer was a Timex Sinclair (used a cassette recorder)
Was just checking Nemo's Wikipedia page (I've had little to do with this particular one) and I see that the system actually produced Category 2-force wind gusts across Nova Scotia.
717. VR46L
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well...

Snowstorm Nemo: North-eastern US and Canada dig out

Nemo: Satellite images show US and Canada under snow

Snowstorm Nemo heading to UK

Snow-storm Nemo hits US and Canada



Sorry , I was Wrong At Least I can admit it....

BBC Radio and TV news that I watch and listen to were careful not too ...
WOW 18Z GFS but it at 384HR
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Probably just an EF0.



Still interesting either way, not even a 2% from the SPC.
Asteroid 2012 DA14 EARTH FLYBY \

Live ------------>Link

Tomorow will pas about 28000 km of earth surface, the closest approach ever seen for an object its size.

DA14 will also pass within the paths of geosynchronous satellites, which orbit at about 35,800 km, and provide data for GPS, communication, and weather predictions.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Asteroid 2012 DA14 EARTH FLYBY \

Live ------------>Link

Tomorow will pas about 28000 km of earth surface, the closest approach ever seen for an object its size.

DA14 will also pass within the paths of geosynchronous satellites, which orbit at about 35,800 km, and provide data for GPS, communication, and weather predictions.

I'll be getting up at 4:30am to see if I can see it. I hope I can.
722. txjac
Quoting PedleyCA:


No old is when you pre-date the computer and the internet... lol



Ughhhhh ...that would be me ...thanks I think that I will go get my walker now! lol
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll be getting up at 4:30am to see if I can see it. I hope I can.


:( will not be seen in this hemisphere
Quoting txjac:



Ughhhhh ...that would be me ...thanks I think that I will go get my walker now! lol


Before Satellites too.

725. txjac
Quoting PedleyCA:


Pre-Satellite too.


OMG Pedley ...be nice ...lol
Quoting txjac:


OMG Pedley ...be nice ...lol


Was speaking for myself on that one.
What a wonderful day has it been the only bad side is that it has been really hot. ugh!:) how is everyone doing?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Was just checking Nemo's Wikipedia page (I've had little to do with this particular one) and I see that the system actually produced Category 2-force wind gusts across Nova Scotia.

By the way, if you guys thought the debate on Sandy's talk page about whether or not there should be a "relation to global warming" section was bad (it was in the news: [1]), check out the still ongoing debate about whether the article concerning Nemo should be considered Winter Storm Nemo, February 2013 nor'easter (current), or Blizzard of 2013.

Discussion here. Comments, as always, are welcome.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll be getting up at 4:30am to see if I can see it. I hope I can.


Top magnitude is 8th, even with a telescope it will be hard to spot because it will be moving so rapidly against the sky.
Quoting allancalderini:
What a wonderful day has it been the only bad side is that it has been really hot. ugh!:) how is everyone doing?


Good, I love how the warm weather coincided with Ultimate Frisbee practice, didn't have to wear a laggy jacket. Had a good time as we prepped for our first ever game against our arch-nemesis.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Top magnitude is 8th, even with a telescope it will be hard to spot because it will be moving so rapidly against the sky.

I have binoculars and I know where to look. For all I know it could be cloudy, cause it's very cloudy now.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have binoculars and I know where to look. For all I know it could be cloudy, cause it's very cloudy now.


Good luck Aussie, I always have trouble keeping my binoculars on an object especially with moving ones.
Quoting allancalderini:
What a wonderful day has it been the only bad side is that it has been really hot. ugh!:) how is everyone doing?

I'm actually feeling much better today and I'm going to school tomorrow. It was above freezing up here with rain/sleet in the afternoon.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Good, I love how the warm weather coincided with Ultimate Frisbee practice, didn't have to wear a laggy jacket. Had a good time as we prepped for our first ever game against our arch-nemesis.
Heat has been pretty intense last couple of days don`t give me wrong but I can`t even feel the air conditioner.



This is ancient....
Blog is incredibly dead.Someone start a riot.lol.
Ugh, my cat comes inside meows, so I pat the cushion like I always do, he comes up starts purring, then stops. Suddenly. Next, the movement of his head lurching back and forth with a burp-sound emanating from his stomach. Me: (uh-oh) I thought he was going to do a hairball, but apparently of he does, he never does them inside. He then proceeds to throw-up a good deal of material.

We have the cushion covered with puke-absorbent and cleaner.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Blog is incredibly dead.Someone start a riot.lol.


Sure thing wash.

"Who are we to take this abuse of non-weather events?! I say we protest!"

Ok, I ran out of things that I can say on here without getting banned. Turns out it is hard to start a riot on a private place if you don't want to get banned.

How are you today wash?
Quoting Astrometeor:
Ugh, my cat comes inside meows, so I pat the cushion like I always do, he comes up starts purring, then stops. Suddenly. Next, the movement of his head lurching back and forth with a burp-sound emanating from his stomach. Me: (uh-oh) I thought he was going to do a hairball, but apparently of he does, he never does them inside. He then proceeds to throw-up a good deal of material.

We have the cushion covered with puke-absorbent and cleaner.
Like we want to know that...
Quoting Astrometeor:
Ugh, my cat comes inside meows, so I pat the cushion like I always do, he comes up starts purring, then stops. Suddenly. Next, the movement of his head lurching back and forth with a burp-sound emanating from his stomach. Me: (uh-oh) I thought he was going to do a hairball, but apparently of he does, he never does them inside. He then proceeds to throw-up a good deal of material.

We have the cushion covered with puke-absorbent and cleaner.

Cool story bro, please don't tell it again.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That's a nasty scar there Keep.... ouch
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Like we want to know that...


I should make a blog post on this. Who knows, I could become internet famous.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cool story bro, please don't tell it again.


Tell it again? You're wierd. Well, so my cat wanted to come inside. Except he had a live mouse in his mouth. So I said no. He put the mouse down and it made a run for it, lol. My cat was so confused. Finally, he went and tried to find it, but it didn't hang around. So, he decided to come inside and purr inside rather than continue his extermination of the local mouse population.


LOL, enough of my disgusting cat stories.

I read the wiki argument page on "Nemo" and I still believe it should be called the North American blizzard of 2013. Not no-one, that is an insult to the storm and to people affected by it. kthxbai.
i was thinking weird myself or strange maybe
Maybe Godzilla was busier than we thought!!
Quoting PedleyCA:
Maybe Godzilla was busier than we thought!!


I just listened to that at go deaf levels in my car about a half hour ago. :)
How much rain did you get down there IRG?
Quoting AussieStorm:


You might find this radio station interesting.
New York Weather 87.5


yeah..sorry for the delay.

I do know about that station
TWC shills are overrunning Wikipedia.
A little off topic but, The ship that was in trouble in the Gulf of Mexico after it lost power for a few days has now docked in Mobile, Alabama... I bet those people are happy now
Quoting PedleyCA:
How much rain did you get down there IRG?


Probably two inches max.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Probably two inches max.


Well, that's .5 more than we got all year here. Good to see you are getting some. Keys looked like they got hammered today as well.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Before Satellites too.



Sputnik! ... I remember throwing rocks at it as it flew overhead. It was little higher up than I thought it was.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Sputnik! ... I remember throwing rocks at it as it flew overhead. It was little higher up than I thought it was.


Didn't stay there long either....
Quoting PedleyCA:



This is ancient....


Do you remember this one?

I cant believe people are actually arguing over using the name "Nemo" on that wikipedia page..no one but companies/affilates of NBC broadcasting took the name seriously..

google "naming nemo winter storm" in search and images and look at all the negative and cartoonish material about the concept...good luck on updating that page..LOL



Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Do you remember this one?



That's new stuff. All those nice colors. B&W was king when I was young.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Didn't stay there long either....


Wasn't it like 18 minutes in orbit? ... How long do you think it takes me to throw a rock? :)
760. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Do you remember this one?



And the The Wayback Machine!!!
00z GFS 36 hours

Quoting PedleyCA:


That's new stuff. All those nice colors. B&W was king when I was young.


That one was colorized. :)

B&W? King? .... Do you remember the "Songbird"?
Quoting PedleyCA:


Well, that's .5 more than we got all year here. Good to see you are getting some. Keys looked like they got hammered today as well.


Rain is good for the northern Indian River lagoon, not so good in the Kissimmee River watershed, and not so good in the St. Lucie watershed.
39 hours
Quoting etxwx:


And the The Wayback Machine!!!


Professor Peabody and his boy _________?
766. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Professor Peabody and his boy _________?


Sherman.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Professor Peabody and his boy _________?


I kinda see Dilbert as a grownup version of Peabody and Sherman..
Quoting etxwx:


Sherman.


Correct!

Clear the blogs, younguns! The elders are having flashbacks!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Blog is incredibly dead.Someone start a riot.lol.
How is your forecast doing with snow washi? Are you going to receive the amount of snow you want?:)
42 hours..look at the SNOW for the south

771. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Correct!

Clear the blogs, younguns! The elders are having flashbacks!


And I did not have to google it. It was my favorite show. :)
what a flip flop..

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Correct!

Clear the blogs, younguns! The elders are having flashbacks!


I have already escaped to the safety of chat. But sometimes I see things that Pedley posts that I recognize so I plus them.
okay..Im through now..WHAT!! 48 hours..within two days..

Quoting ncstorm:


I kinda see Dilbert as a grownup version of Peabody and Sherman..


Hmmmmmmmm, now that you mention it. Good eye!
54 hours in..

Quoting etxwx:


And I did not have to google it. It was my favorite show. :)


Do you remember the "Songbird"?
Quoting ncstorm:
54 hours in..


The trend today has been towards more moisture. I hope this continues to be the case.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The trend today has been towards more moisture. I hope this continues to be the case.


If I wake up tomorrow and the model has backed off again, I may just stop watching the GFS..I'm excited though..I guess we will see..

60 hours in..Goodnight everyone!

780. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Do you remember the "Songbird"?


Nope, it doesn't ring a bell like Mr. Peabody and Sherman did. I was plussing the reference to B&W TV. :)
Quoting etxwx:


Nope, it doesn't ring a bell like Mr. Peabody and Sherman did. I was plussing the reference to B&W TV. :)


Do you remember the TV series, "Skyking"?
782. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Do you remember the TV series, "Skyking"?


Even though that reference is kinda out of the blue of the western sky, yes, yes, as a matter of fact, I do.

BTW, I think that's pronounced SkyyyyyyyyyyyKing. :)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Wasn't it like 18 minutes in orbit? ... How long do you think it takes me to throw a rock? :)


90 days, the batteries lasted 22 days.....
00Z GFS at 180hrs still has the Thursday-Friday storm that brings me accumulating snow. Consistency is there for my area getting at least 6" of snow. Severe weather would be a problem farther south. The low is just a little farther south and weaker this run, meaning less p-type issues but also a little less QPF. I will probably have a new blog update on this winter storm plus the next nor'easter tomorrow.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That one was colorized. :)

B&W? King? .... Do you remember the "Songbird"?


Can't say I do.. Can you hum a few bars...... lol
786. etxwx
Neat new avatar wxchaser97...very seasonal!
Quoting PedleyCA:


90 days, the batteries lasted 22 days.....


Yes! .... and after that it went to the dogs. :)
Quoting PedleyCA:


Can't say I do.. Can you hum a few bars...... lol



Ok, here goes, " (breathes in) HAHAHAHA", sorry I have horrible singing, I was thinking about it and I started laughing. Sorry for any excitement I may have caused at the possibility of hearing me sing.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Correct!

Clear the blogs, younguns! The elders are having flashbacks!


Let they them play in the chat room....
Quoting etxwx:
Neat new avatar wxchaser97...very seasonal!

Thanks! For tornado season it will definitely be some picture of a large tornado.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Do you remember the TV series, "Skyking"?


I remember that one.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Can't say I do.. Can you hum a few bars...... lol


Not me. I am not musically inclined enough to play a jukebox. I bet Penny could though. Who was Penny in that series?

Along with "Skyking" being a plane, there was also a TV series with a helicopter. Do you remember that one? It was also in B&W.
793. etxwx
Pop quiz - Sargent Preston of the Yukon sidekick "Rex" was:

A. His faithful horse
B. His faithful dog
794. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Not me. I am not musically inclined enough to play a jukebox. I bet Penny could though. Who was Penny in that series?

Along with "Skyking" being a plane, there was also a TV series with a helicopter. Do you remember that one? It was also in B&W.


Whirlybirds.
Quoting etxwx:
Pop quiz - Sargent Preston of the Yukon sidekick "Rex" was:

A. His faithful horse
B. His faithful dog


A.

and his sweetheart was_________?
Whirlybirds - I cheated
797. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


A.

and hid his sweetheart was_________?


Oooo...you got me there. It wasn't Nell, that was Dudley's gal.

I'm still trying to figure out why his horse was named "Rex".
Quoting PedleyCA:
Whirlybirds - I cheated


Google works better than my memory....
Quoting etxwx:


Oooo...you got me there. It wasn't Nell, that was Dudley's gal.

I'm still trying to figure out why his horse was named "Rex".


It was a Yukon thing back in the 50's. :)

Hmmm. You are correct about Nell and that was actually who I was thinking of. Dudley's girlfriend. .... Come to think of it, I am not sure that Sargent Preston ever met a woman.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Google works better than my memory....


What was "Nelly Belle"?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


A.

and his sweetheart was_________?


Kasey Rogers
802. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


It was a Yukon thing back in the 50's. :)

Hmmm. You are correct about Nell and that was actually who I was thinking of. Dudley's girlfriend. .... Come to think of it, I am not sure that Sargent Preston ever met a woman.


I just followed Pedley's lead and googled. You may be right, the credits are pretty thin when it comes to actresses. The Yukon was a man's world I guess.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


What was "Nelly Belle"?


A Jeep...
Quoting etxwx:


I just followed Pedley's lead and googled. You may be right, the credits are pretty thin when it comes to actresses. The Yukon was a man's world I guess.


Said she was played by Louise Tate from Bewitched.
Quoting PedleyCA:


A Jeep...


Wasn't that part of Roy Rogers?
807. etxwx
Did you watch Sea Hunt?
Quoting PedleyCA:


Wasn't that part of Roy Rogers?


Correct. We know that Roy's horse was named Trigger. What was Dale's horse name?


Is that all you people can do is talk about old TV shows?
Quoting etxwx:
Did you watch Sea Hunt?


Loyd Bridges. I never would have guessed that he would be so funny in "Airplane" years later.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Correct. We know that Roy's horse was named Trigger. What was Dale's horse name?


Buttercup
Quoting Grothar:


Is that all you people can do is talk about old TV shows?


LOL! ... I knew you couldn't stand it for long. :)
Quoting etxwx:
Did you watch Sea Hunt?


Sure did....
814. etxwx
Quoting Grothar:


Buttercup

Buttermilk :)
Quoting Grothar:


Buttercup


Pour a little milk on it.
What was Tonto's horse called?
Quoting Grothar:


Buttercup


Good Evening Sensei...
Quoting Grothar:


Is that all you people can do is talk about old TV shows?


We were talking about the weather, snow, revisiting tornadoes, then this stuff started and the rest of the blog shriveled and died.
Quoting geepy86:
What was Tonto's horse called?


Good one! You got me on that one. ..... Iron Horse?
Quoting geepy86:
What was Tonto's horse called?


Which one. 1st or 2nd...
Quoting PedleyCA:


Which one. 1st or 2nd...


Scout was the 2nd one.

extra credit for both
Quoting PedleyCA:


Which one. 1st or 2nd...
Quoting Astrometeor:


We were talking about the weather, snow, revisiting tornadoes, then this stuff started and the rest of the blog shriveled and died.


Blame it on the old folks....
Quoting Astrometeor:


We were talking about the weather, snow, revisiting tornadoes, then this stuff started and the rest of the blog shriveled and died.


Well, I am about to head to bed and turn the blog back over to the younguns. Thank you for your patience, Astrometeor. ... One day, you will know what it is all about. :)
Quoting etxwx:

Buttermilk :)


Just shows you I don't have to google these. :) That was more than 60 years ago. Give me a little credit for the "Butter" part.
Quoting geepy86:
extra credit for both


White Feller...
Quoting PedleyCA:


Good Evening Sensei...


Good evening, Grasshopper.
Quick Draw McGraw.....
What was Sky King's plane's name?
Quoting PedleyCA:
Quick Draw McGraw.....


We could start our own equestrian demonstration.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Blame it on the old folks....


Yup, that's my job Pedley, as a teenager I have the role of complaining and making others role their eyes at me, seems like I am doing my job properly.

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Well, I am about to head to bed and turn the blog back over to the younguns. Thank you for your patience, Astrometeor. ... One day, you will know what it is all about. :)


Hey, I love to listen to the wise men of this place speak. I absorb anything that you all say. Keep it coming.
Quoting Grothar:
What was Sky King's plane's name?


Songbird...
Quoting PedleyCA:
Quick Draw McGraw.....

and Baba Looey
Quoting Grothar:
What was Sky King's plane's name?


Post #777
835. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Well, I am about to head to bed and turn the blog back over to the younguns. Thank you for your patience, Astrometeor. ... One day, you will know what it is all about. :)


Yep, me too but I'll end on a weather note: It was a beautiful day today, sunny and in the 60's. A good day for digging garden beds and helping set fence posts. *groan*

Thanks for reminding me about the fun parts of being old, since my back is stating otherwise. Nite Rookie, Gro, Ped, geepy, and the young 'uns.

OMG...Quick Draw Magraw! :)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Post #777


OK, so I got on late.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Yup, that's my job Pedley, as a teenager I have the role of complaining and making others role their eyes at me, seems like I am doing my job properly.



Hey, I love to listen to the wise men of this place speak. I absorb anything that you all say. Keep it coming.


Yes, and that is why I am going to bed. LOL I will let the wise ones speak.
This is only 66hrs out, I wonder where I have seen this before? Luckily it doesn't give the NE over 3' of snow, but the snow goes down further south. I'm going to bed, good night everyone!
Quoting Grothar:


OK, so I got on late.


Now you know how I feel in at least half of my conversations. .... You are not late. ... The rest of us arrived early.
Extra-tropical Gino~ Click pic for the animated graphic decoupling.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Ummmm.... what the heck?



Meteorite crash in Russia: UFO fears spark panic in the Urals

WOW!!
Hail storm destroyed crops in India.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Ummmm.... what the heck?Meteorite crash in Russia: UFO fears spark panic in the Urals


The asteroid already came down? Darn, Aussie's going to be disappointed. That's too bad, I hope they find some pieces of it on the ground. Poo, there goes all the hype out of the media's wind.
Bolivia has lost 23 to flash flooding.
Quoting Astrometeor:


The asteroid already came down? Darn, Aussie's going to be disappointed. That's too bad, I hope they find some pieces of it on the ground. Poo, there goes all the hype out of the media's wind.


That asteroid is coming from a different direction. It is coming up from the Southern Hemisphere. That was just a small one. If this big one hits you will
probably know where you are.
Was that a piece of 2012 DA14?
The big asteroid flyby hasn't happened yet. NASA live coverage doesn't start for another near 14 hours for that.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Was that a piece of 2012 DA14?


Nope, coincidence.
Quoting wxchaser97:
This is only 66hrs out, I wonder where I have seen this before? Luckily it doesn't give the NE over 3' of snow, but the snow goes down further south. I'm going to bed, good night everyone!


what the hell is wrong with the GFS?
Time to Bail - Good Night All - Afternoon Aussie - Sleep Well - Stay Safe All
Seeing Twitter reports of a different meteorite in Alabama and Mississippi as well tonight as well...

Nemo up top..
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Russian Meteor might have hit a school


that is not good.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Old is when the first computer you ever saw had to be housed in its own building and had rooms full of reel to reel tapes and walls full of slots with punchcards. The internet didn't happen till decades later. :)

I'd be sad about that, except that I also got to see Neil Armstrong walk on the moon live and I got to see Jimi Hendrix in concert, so it's all good. :D



It's funny how in my generation, man setting foot on the moon seems like "old" material, yet in the 70's they thought the future was going to be people zipping around in space eating pills for meals and having robot servants. Instead however, we spend our entire lives on mobile devices, that is the real future nobody could see coming, lol.
Quoting Thrawst:


Still interesting either way, not even a 2% from the SPC.



South Florida can get thunderstorms with 80 mph gusts and golf ball size hail and the SPC won't seem to show much anticipation. I guess maybe because severe weather is just hard to predict down there.
This looks interesting.
On the topic of meteor-spotting in Alabama. Thanks to the media hyping about the passing asteroid, more people will be paying attention to the skies, even if they do not know it. Dozens of meteors go burning through the atmosphere, you just have to be willing to go out and search for them. When my family had a 3-week vacation the past summer for my sis's graduation from college, I logged over 70 meteors and 30 satellites and a couple ISS fly-bys. All depends on the observer and how much attention one is paying to the night sky.

And I am up later than usual because I was lazy on getting around to some homework that I had all week to work on. Shall be going to bed in ETA 25 minutes.
Quoting Astrometeor:
On the topic of meteor-spotting in Alabama. Thanks to the media hyping about the passing asteroid, more people will be paying attention to the skies, even if they do not know it. Dozens of meteors go burning through the atmosphere, you just have to be willing to go out and search for them. When my family had a 3-week vacation the past summer for my sis's graduation from college, I logged over 70 meteors and 30 satellites and a couple ISS fly-bys. All depends on the observer and how much attention one is paying to the night sky.

And I am up later than usual because I was lazy on getting around to some homework that I had all week to work on. Shall be going to bed in ETA 25 minutes.


da heck...you're up.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


da heck...you're up.


da heck....you're up. It's like 2 am over where you are.
Quoting Astrometeor:


da heck....you're up. It's like 2 am over where you are.


da's true!. Can't sleep.
The Mets are watching a system that may be a significant weather event for many folks. The next few model runs should show how bad it will be...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE FIRST OF
TWO POWERFUL STORM SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WARRANTING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT. AREA WILL COOL DOWN AND DRY
OUT BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
POWERHOUSE OF A STORM SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED 110-120KT H5 JET
ROARS IN ON THURSDAY WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ROSE
now Im going to sleep..good night to all.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
now Im going to sleep..good night to all.
Good night to you.:)
Quoting hydrus:
The Mets are watching a system that may be a significant weather event for many folks. The next few model runs should show how bad it will be...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH THE FIRST OF
TWO POWERFUL STORM SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WARRANTING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT. AREA WILL COOL DOWN AND DRY
OUT BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
POWERHOUSE OF A STORM SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED 110-120KT H5 JET
ROARS IN ON THURSDAY WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ROSE


Didn't realize it would have such an impact on baseball
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Ummmm.... what the heck?


I couldn't get that video to play, here is the Youtube version



and the sonic boom that followed



Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Didn't realize it would have such an impact on baseball
I bet there will be some strong tornadoes with the storm system there watching . that jet is going to be strong. If dew points get into the 60,s, could be a lot of storm chasers out in the field so to speak. Naturally, I do not want to see tornadoes.

Quoting wxchaser97:
00Z GFS at 180hrs still has the Thursday-Friday storm that brings me accumulating snow. Consistency is there for my area getting at least 6" of snow. Severe weather would be a problem farther south. The low is just a little farther south and weaker this run, meaning less p-type issues but also a little less QPF. I will probably have a new blog update on this winter storm plus the next nor'easter tomorrow.
I am in Chicago and Chief Meteorologist, Tom Skilling, already has his eye on this potent area of low pressure that has the potential to produce significant snows.  I wonder if this means a possible blizzard here (according to the tightly packed isobars and powerful jet), like the one 2 years ago.  What are your thoughts on this?
Good Morning Folks!..cool and Damp here this morning, ground is soaking wet..YEEEEES..we needed this badly........well the Blogs Coffee is perked for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!!
7-day for the Tampa Bay area............
Today's Russian fireball was spectacular and is by far the most well-documented fall ever. Here's a nice compilation video from RT:



There are many others, but my favorite are the ones that captured the massive terminal explosion and the multiple window shattering sonic booms caused by the event, such as this one:



Also here, here, and here.

EDIT: This LiveJournal page has dozens of videos and images.
G'morning everyone

Good evening Aussie!

Pretty impressive stuff Nea, thanks. What do you suppose was all that explosion noise? Was it transiting sonic boomage.. I did not hear the signature double boom.. or was it multiple ground strikes.. seemed to last a long time, I was very surprised.
Good morning. A good weekend weatherwise is expected for the NE Caribbean islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A GENERALLY
FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SMALL PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW MOVED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WITH FEW OF THEM
AFFECTING THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.V.I. HOWEVER MOST OF THE REGION WAS
RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MASS OF RELATIVELY
DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE FA TODAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE BELOW OR CLOSE TO 1.0 INCH FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURG THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PREVIOUS TJSJ U/A SOUNDING AND LATEST WSR88-D VAD WIND
PROFILE INDICATED MAINLY EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO
20 KTS BLO FL150.THEN SLIGHTLY BACKING AND BCMG FM THE NORTH AT
15-20 KTS UP TO FL350.PASSING LOW LEVEL CLDS AND FEW TRADE WINDS
SHRA WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN
LEEWARDS INCLUDING THE USVI. SOME AFTN SHOWERS REMAIN PSBL NR TJBQ
AND TJMZ BETWEEN 15/17Z-15/20Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 73 / 20 10 10 10
STT 84 73 84 75 / 20 20 20 20
Good morning, everyone. Evening Aussie.

A chilly 39 degrees here, supposed to warm up to mid sixties. I teach school today and then am driving up to a hotel in Alexandria, a present from my oldest son, a weekend away all to myself, no kids and no dogs.

Breakfast's on the sideboard next to Largo's coffee: breakfast skewers with sausage, pineapple, pancetta ,and red pepper, fruit salads and breakfast burritos. Enjoy!
Good morning. Weird that the Russian meteorite hit on the same night as the big 2012DA14 flyby.

Anyways, here's the SPC's 4-8 day outlook:



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPEARS LIKELY TO COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BEGIN TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NATION.
AN INITIAL IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS COMING
WEEKEND...APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOO SOON...AND TOO FAR NORTH...FOR A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE
STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...BEFORE LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...TIMING
INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MORE FAVORABLE INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN BEGINS TO OCCUR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DOES NOT
APPEAR OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BUT...BY THURSDAY...AT
LEAST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...THERE APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSED TO SUPPORT THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
TORNADOES.


..KERR.. 02/15/2013
Quoting indianrivguy:
G'morning everyone

Good evening Aussie!

Pretty impressive stuff Nea, thanks. What do you suppose was all that explosion noise? Was it transiting sonic boomage.. I did not hear the signature double boom.. or was it multiple ground strikes.. seemed to last a long time, I was very surprised.


Meteor shower explodes in central Russia and Urals injuring people

SOLDIERS have been sent to meteor impact sites in Russia, where more than 400 people have been injured by today's strike.
There are conflicting reports from within the Russian Government, but they confirm a blast was felt in the Chelyabinsk region, 1500km east of Moscow.
A spokeswoman for Russia's Emergency Ministry, Irina Rossius, told The Associated Press that there was a meteor shower, but another ministry spokeswoman, Elena Smirnikh, was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying it was a single meteor.
Interior Ministry spokesman Vadim Kolesnikov said more than 400 people had sought medical treatment after the blasts, and at least three had been admitted to hospital in serious conditions. Many of the injuries were from glass broken by the explosions.
Kolsenikov also said about 600 square meters of a roof at a zinc factory had collapsed.
The local office of the national emergencies ministry released a statement saying a meteor disintegrated above the Urals, "partially burning up in the lower atmosphere".
"Fragments of the meteorite reached Earth, falling in sparsely populated areas in the Chelyabinsk region," it said.
"According to preliminary information, four people have been injured by flying glass."
The statement said "numerous calls of panic" had been received.
The ministry said some fragments fell near the town of Satka, about 200 kilometers from the regional capital city of Chelyabinsk.
The office of the governor of the region in the Ural Mountains said in a statement that many calls about injuries and damage to buildings had been received. But there were no immediate confirmed figures or specific reports on damage.
"According to preliminary information, four people have been injured by flying glass," it said.
"At 11:00 am local time (4pm AEDT) we received numerous calls of panic, power cuts and contusions," Interfax cited the local government as saying.
Schools were closed for the day across the region after the impact blew out windows of buildings and temperatures had plunged in central Russia to -18 degrees Celsius.
Most of those injured were treated for minor cuts and bruises from shattered glass, the local police department told the RIA Novosti news agency.

The Chelyabinsk region is Russia's industrial heartland, filled with smoke-chugging factories and other huge facilities that include a nuclear power plant and the massive Mayak atomic waste storage and treatment centre.
A spokesman for Rosatom, the Russian nuclear energy state corporation, said that its operations remained unaffected.
"All Rosatom enterprises located in the Urals region - including the Mayak complex - are working as normal,'' an unnamed Rosatom spokesman told Interfax.
The emergencies ministry said radiation levels in the region also did not change and that 20,000 rescue workers had been dispatched to help the injured and locate those required help.
The defence ministry meanwhile said it had sent soldiers "to the sites of impact.''
Footage of the incident broadcast on state television showed at least two bright flashes fill the sky at around 9:00 am (0500 GMT) as the streets filled with morning rush hour traffic.
Amateur footage posted on YouTube showed local men swearing in surprise and fright, and others grinding their cars to a halt.
"At first I thought it was a plane,'' one man told Russian state television.

AFP

Hot off the press out of the MOBILE NWS office this morning.



(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING EAST
OF THE FCST AREA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GENERATE LIGHT RAIN BEFORE NOON SATURDAY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE MIXED
WITH SNOW SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ANY MIX WOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT AND
NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL END SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S MOST
LOCATIONS OVER INTERIOR ZONES AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 12/DS
00z CMC





Pretty cool pattern..even if you don't get what you want into you own backyard.
Wishing everyone a wonderful Friday and Aussie, a wonderful Saturday! Have a great weekend, everyone!
Quoting indianrivguy:
G'morning everyone

Good evening Aussie!

Pretty impressive stuff Nea, thanks. What do you suppose was all that explosion noise? Was it transiting sonic boomage.. I did not hear the signature double boom.. or was it multiple ground strikes.. seemed to last a long time, I was very surprised.
That first big explosion was probably the overpressure wave from the terminal blast--that is, the object actually exploding as it violently encountered thicker air and, thus, rapid deceleration that destroyed it. The noises that came afterward were, as you said, sonic booms reaching the listener's position at different times, some of them echoing off the surrounding geography. Those repeated secondary sounds have been described in almost every large witnessed fall; it's very unusual--and great for science--that so many microphones captured them this time around.
Snow on the 6Z GFS!! in FL from 30HR to 42HR



889. beell
I hate to get all grinchy about southern snow and the modeled atmosphere does appear to support the production of snow-but offers no guarantee it will make it to the surface. There is a subtle difference in numerical models between snow production and snow accumulation?

2m temps: SREF/GFS/NAM around 36 hrs.



Quoting beell:
I hate to get all grinchy about southern snow, and the modeled atmosphere does appear to support the production of snow-but offers no guarantee it will make it to the surface. There is a subtle difference in numerical models between snow production and snow accumulation?

2m temps: SREF/GFS/NAM in around 36 hrs.






Drag. Same as it ever was.
I didn't see any impact. I was surprised how many regular people have video cameras in their cars, and fun Russian pop music.
Edit{oh that was the broken glass video} .
It really got bright!
I guess that fragment was too small to spot, but was it associated with the big chunk that will miss us today?
It seems a VERY odd coincidence.
892. beell
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Drag. Same as it ever was.


If it were over Houston, I'd probably be hyping this like a m...
........yesterday gfs said rain would be done with florida after today..now look..and the freezing temps are coming
Severe threat would be even higher if we could get a better return flow/low situated farther north.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
APPEARS LIKELY TO COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BEGIN TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NATION.
AN INITIAL IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS COMING
WEEKEND...APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TOO SOON...AND TOO FAR NORTH...FOR A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE
STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...BEFORE LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...TIMING
INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MORE FAVORABLE INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN BEGINS TO OCCUR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DOES NOT
APPEAR OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BUT...BY THURSDAY...AT
LEAST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...THERE APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSED TO SUPPORT THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 02/15/2013
P.S. What did you think of the NOVA special?
I only saw the beginning that looked AWESOME, but will see the rest tonight.
897. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Severe threat would be even higher if we could get a better return flow/low situated farther north.



SPC is right with you there. Cold front on Tuesday will leave a fairly cool boundary layer and an easterly flow across the northern gulf as surface high pressure tries to build in. The cool layer will be slow to erode. So we end up with a solid cloud deck in the warm sector. West central TX may fare a bit better but this may time with non-daylight hours along a dryline.

GFS usually underestimates instability this far out so we'll see.
Quoting biff4ugo:
P.S. What did you think of the NOVA special?
I only saw the beginning that looked AWESOME, but will see the rest tonight.


What is it on??? :-D I LOVE Nova. :-D You can learn so many interesting things. :-)
NWS, Wilmington, NC-finally a true chance to see some snow this year

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE POTENT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL.

THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DECIDEDLY WETTER WITH THE NAM/MET
AND GFS/MAV NUMBERS ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE POTENT WAVE NOW BEING SAMPLED IN THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK HAS MADE THE DIFFERENCE.
REGARDLESS OF THE REASON...I
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHILE ADDING
IN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THEN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES TAKEN AT PERFECT PROGS DON/T WARRANT A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER UNTIL LATE BUT WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH
THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850 TO 700MB LAYER...AND THE FACT I
JUST DON/T SEE SATURDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES GETTING OUT OF THE 40S...A
LONGER PERIOD OF SEEING SNOWFALL APPEARS LIKELY. I HAVE USED A
THRESHOLD OF 41 DEGREES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND 38 DEGREES FOR ALL
SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S.
Quoting ncstorm:
NWS, Wilmington, NC-finally a true chance to see some snow this year

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE POTENT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL.

THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DECIDEDLY WETTER WITH THE NAM/MET
AND GFS/MAV NUMBERS ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE POTENT WAVE NOW BEING SAMPLED IN THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK HAS MADE THE DIFFERENCE. REGARDLESS OF THE REASON...I
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHILE ADDING
IN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THEN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES TAKEN AT PERFECT PROGS DON/T WARRANT A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER UNTIL LATE BUT WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH
THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850 TO 700MB LAYER...AND THE FACT I
JUST DON/T SEE SATURDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES GETTING OUT OF THE 40S...A
LONGER PERIOD OF SEEING SNOWFALL APPEARS LIKELY. I HAVE USED A
THRESHOLD OF 41 DEGREES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND 38 DEGREES FOR ALL
SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S.
I'm not really that excited for the "chance" of snow on Saturday. If we do have snow flakes, it won't be enough to keep me happy. Hopefully next year I'll see a lot of snow in Asheville, where I'm going to college.
Yes it was on. The dust flow moving with the African waves across the Atlantic to the Amazon animation was amazing. I'm sure folks on here that watch those waves as the seeds of hurricanes would agree.
saw this on Facebook this morning..thought it was funny considering the situation

"Great. Now I can add meteor strikes to my list of anxieties."
Quoting ncstorm:
NWS, Wilmington, NC-finally a true chance to see some snow this year

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM
CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND THE POTENT SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL.

THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DECIDEDLY WETTER WITH THE NAM/MET
AND GFS/MAV NUMBERS ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE POTENT WAVE NOW BEING SAMPLED IN THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK HAS MADE THE DIFFERENCE.
REGARDLESS OF THE REASON...I
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHILE ADDING
IN A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THEN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES TAKEN AT PERFECT PROGS DON/T WARRANT A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER UNTIL LATE BUT WITH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WITH
THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850 TO 700MB LAYER...AND THE FACT I
JUST DON/T SEE SATURDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES GETTING OUT OF THE 40S...A
LONGER PERIOD OF SEEING SNOWFALL APPEARS LIKELY. I HAVE USED A
THRESHOLD OF 41 DEGREES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND 38 DEGREES FOR ALL
SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING AND MAX TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S.

We may even get minor accumulations.

Haven't personally seen snow in over two and a half years.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We may even get minor accumulations.

Haven't personally seen snow in over two and a half years.


Morning TA! :-D
Tell me about it....The only time I've seen snow was if I traveled TO it, instead of it COMING TO me.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Meteor shower explodes in central Russia and Urals injuring people

SOLDIERS have been sent to meteor impact sites in Russia, where more than 400 people have been injured by today's strike.
There are conflicting reports from within the Russian Government, but they confirm a blast was felt in the Chelyabinsk region, 1500km east of Moscow.
A spokeswoman for Russia's Emergency Ministry, Irina Rossius, told The Associated Press that there was a meteor shower, but another ministry spokeswoman, Elena Smirnikh, was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying it was a single meteor.
Interior Ministry spokesman Vadim Kolesnikov said more than 400 people had sought medical treatment after the blasts, and at least three had been admitted to hospital in serious conditions. Many of the injuries were from glass broken by the explosions.
Kolsenikov also said about 600 square meters of a roof at a zinc factory had collapsed.
The local office of the national emergencies ministry released a statement saying a meteor disintegrated above the Urals, "partially burning up in the lower atmosphere".
"Fragments of the meteorite reached Earth, falling in sparsely populated areas in the Chelyabinsk region," it said.
"According to preliminary information, four people have been injured by flying glass."
The statement said "numerous calls of panic" had been received.
The ministry said some fragments fell near the town of Satka, about 200 kilometers from the regional capital city of Chelyabinsk.
The office of the governor of the region in the Ural Mountains said in a statement that many calls about injuries and damage to buildings had been received. But there were no immediate confirmed figures or specific reports on damage.
"According to preliminary information, four people have been injured by flying glass," it said.
"At 11:00 am local time (4pm AEDT) we received numerous calls of panic, power cuts and contusions," Interfax cited the local government as saying.
Schools were closed for the day across the region after the impact blew out windows of buildings and temperatures had plunged in central Russia to -18 degrees Celsius.
Most of those injured were treated for minor cuts and bruises from shattered glass, the local police department told the RIA Novosti news agency.

The Chelyabinsk region is Russia's industrial heartland, filled with smoke-chugging factories and other huge facilities that include a nuclear power plant and the massive Mayak atomic waste storage and treatment centre.
A spokesman for Rosatom, the Russian nuclear energy state corporation, said that its operations remained unaffected.
"All Rosatom enterprises located in the Urals region - including the Mayak complex - are working as normal,'' an unnamed Rosatom spokesman told Interfax.
The emergencies ministry said radiation levels in the region also did not change and that 20,000 rescue workers had been dispatched to help the injured and locate those required help.
The defence ministry meanwhile said it had sent soldiers "to the sites of impact.''
Footage of the incident broadcast on state television showed at least two bright flashes fill the sky at around 9:00 am (0500 GMT) as the streets filled with morning rush hour traffic.
Amateur footage posted on YouTube showed local men swearing in surprise and fright, and others grinding their cars to a halt.
"At first I thought it was a plane,'' one man told Russian state television.

AFP



This thing have any relation with the asteroid 2012 DA14?
Thank goodness it wasn't as bad as the Tunguska event.
1908.
There could be companion fragments to DA14. I'm wondering if all the radar pointing in that region will pick them up?
Quoting pcola57:


Small near-Earth asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass very close to Earth on Feb. 15, so close that it will pass inside the ring of geosynchronous weather and communications satellites. There is no chance it might collide with Earth.

NASA will chronicle the flyby with a TV broadcast at 2 p.m. EST and a UStream/Webchat event at 9 p.m. EST.


Ohh, don't forget that the Slooh space Camera will also monitor the event from the Canary Islands! :-)

http://events.slooh.com/
Quoting stormchaser19:


This thing have any relation with the asteroid 2012 DA14?


Very probably, as 2012 DA14 passes Earth today, at a distence of some 17,000 miles. It's 150 ft in diameter, so just as well it's passing us.

This was probably a fragment, and has been estimated at just 10 tons, exploding 25 miles up.

You'd think something that small and at that altitude wouldn't cause much concern if it exploded, but there are reports that some 500 people have been injured, mostly by flying glass, and 14 hospitalized. No deaths reported.

NY Times article

Link
Quake from the impact.

Look like we may be able to put a dent in the drought map for a lot of the US

Wowwwww!!!!!!Seems like if the asteroid explode in the atmosphere, but wowwwwwwww!!!!!!!!this need be a ADVICE TO THE NASA AND GOVERNMENTS TO THING TO COMES


----------------> Link
Quoting pcola57:


Small near-Earth asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass very close to Earth on Feb. 15, so close that it will pass inside the ring of geosynchronous weather and communications satellites. There is no chance it might collide with Earth.

NASA will chronicle the flyby with a TV broadcast at 2 p.m. EST and a UStream/Webchat event at 9 p.m. EST.
Good morning all. NASA will live stream it IF it misses the earth. I really wonder sometimes if they will tell us when it is going to hit or if they really know for sure. What happens if it hits a satelitte or two? If you can't do anything about a speeding bullet aiming for you what is the sense in telling people about it to create mass hysteria. I hope they are right. I just wish I was on the dark side of the earth so I could try and spot it.

On the Earth weather side, the Florida Keys got the rain last night. Wonderful to see, hear, smell and run through. At last I can see the real color of my car. LOL The rain washed off the protective dust cover. Everyone have a good day.
Quoting pcola57:


Thanks for that reminder WunderGirl12..


No problem. I use Slooh for a lot of my astronomy events, like the Transit of Venus. (That was SO cool) I'm going to watch Slooh when the Comet ISON goes past. It's supposed to be VERY bright, and pass very close to earth. :-)
i thought the closest the meteor was suppose to come was near bali indo.?
It showed up on Earthquake sensors, but that could just be the atmospheric explosion. Are there any Sat images of the impact area?
Apparently, some Russian websites are already offering parts of the meteorite 'for sale'. Those Russkies are quick off the mark.


A hole in Chebarkul Lake made by meteorite debris. Photo by Chebarkul town head Andrey Orlov.
Quoting yonzabam:
Apparently, some Russian websites are already offering parts of the meteorite 'for sale'. Those Russkies are quick off the mark.


Offering parts of the meteorite? Man, they sure know when there is a profit maker waiting to happen. :-P
Different space rock.
Quoting islander101010:
i thought the closest the meteor was suppose to come was near bali indo.?

Army units found three meteorite debris impact sites, two of which are in an area near Chebarkul Lake, west of Chelyabinsk. The third site was found some 80 kilometers further to the northwest, near the town of Zlatoust. One of the fragments that struck near Chebarkul left a crater six meters in diameter.


Weather sattelite Meteosat 10 has taken an image of the meteriote shortly after entering the atmosphere.(Copyright 2013 © EUMETSAT)
JMA Model..Weekend Storm for the east coast



The Russian army has joined the rescue operation. Radiation, chemical and biological protection units have been put on high alert. Since the explosion occurred several kilometers above the Earth, a large ground area must be thoroughly checked for radiation and other threats.
FOR LATE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
POTENT SYSTEM. TIMING HAS BEEN QUITE GOOD AND CONSISTENT FOR BEING
THIS FAR OUT. THE FOCUS HAS BEEN ON THU AND THU NGT FOR A ROUND OF
STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE OVERALL SETUP LOOKS VERY SPRING
LIKE AND SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER. DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL FOR 6-7 DAYS OUT...WILL MENTION THE
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS TIME.


-Jackson MS
wiki has it already easy to understand the astroids they think are coming from different areas of space
(Deleted) sorry. I saw it on Russian news about the meteor and thought it was the impact crater. Thanks for clearing up the source and subject as a gas explosion.
Largest part of that was yesterdays Earthquake and aftershocks.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Quake from the impact.


EXPECTING A SHORT BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
VERY POWERFUL UPPER JET MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLASSIC LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY. AT A GLANCE THIS SYSTEM HAS THE LOOK OF
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM IS A BIG QUESTION MARK AT THIS POINT.
SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR A NARROW AXIS OF HIGH
QUALITY MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE GULF
STATES...BUT WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

-BMX
A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST TUESDAY...AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN AN
INTENSE WARM ADVECTION REGIME DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A 60-70
KNOT 850-MB JET YIELDING 0-1 KM HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 1000
M2/S2...BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...AS ANY
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT SB CAPE COULD LEAD TO
THE THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.


-Huntsville AL
Quoting Neapolitan:
Today's Russian fireball was spectacular and is by far the most well-documented fall ever. Here's a nice compilation video from RT:



There are many others, but my favorite are the ones that captured the massive terminal explosion and the multiple window shattering sonic booms caused by the event, such as this one:



Also here, here, and here.

EDIT: This LiveJournal page has dozens of videos and images.


I'm curious that if this had anything to do with 2012 DA14. It appears that there were several meteors, as if you look at the time of each one, they were recorded at different times. However, upon closer research - the speed was far faster than 2012 DA14 would have been, and different inclination as well. This is confirmed by ESA.

725 people are injured from the asteroid.
nothing about falling rocks on nws weather forecast so i guess we are okay WINTER RETURNS WITH A DEEP COOLDOWN THIS WEEKEND...
...BREEZY AND MUCH COLDER SATURDAY EVENING... e. cent florida
Alright for the Russian Meteor; a blog called the Russian Machine Never Breaks has a lot of coverage on it here is the link to the site:
Link

Also just want to make a quick note regarding the amout of cameras; if you didn't know about there has to be a dashcam camera in every Russian car, there is millions of Russian dashcam footage available on the internet.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Impact video?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq-d8_RbQuQ
???



Wow! No one has ever videoed an impact crater so soon after impact. The peat is still on fire. That would just have been a small fragment. Very impressive stuff.

Edit: the video is fake. It's a crater in Derweze, with ignited natural gas.



Quoting biff4ugo:
Impact video?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq-d8_RbQuQ
???
My Russian is to poor to understand if this is the actual impact or just a similar video.
You have to laugh at the online fragment sales.
That's definitely not a crater from today's meteor, nor any other; that's the "Door To Hell" near Derweze, Turkmenistan, a long-burning underground natural gas fire.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm curious that if this had anything to do with 2012 DA14.
Definitely not. As noted, it was moving at a different speed and in an entirely different trajectory. Just a coincidence...
Junk on internet being reported Already trying to say the Military intercepted it keeping it worse than it was. No military can intercept something moving that fast period.
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Ohh, don't forget that the Slooh space Camera will also monitor the event from the Canary Islands! :-)

http://events.slooh.com/

Hey WuGirl...

why do you put the J so much on e-mail
Quoting RitaEvac:
Junk on internet being reported Already trying to say the Military intercepted it keeping it worse than it was. No military can intercept something moving that fast period.


Even the Russian TV news stations are getting in on the act. Talk about snake oil salesmen. I hope the producer gets sacked.
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's definitely not a crater from today's meteor, nor any other; that's the "Door To Hell"


Who wants to jump in?
I think this is my favorite video audio recording of the event, as it captures very well the initial explosion, the subsequent sonic booms, much breaking glass, lots of excited babble, and car alarms galore (volume warning):

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Severe threat would be even higher if we could get a better return flow/low situated farther north.

02/15/2013


actually further south.
The system doesnt have the pull and the further north it is, the more decoupled from the gulf air it is.
the nes 06Z run has a better pull on surface moisture but as you see:

LLJ from SW not SE:


also toned down trough a little bit:

Yesterday:


today:




However, knowing the GFS, it may trend stronger again.
the 90-110kt llj is gone though
I'm hoping for a trend south and east, and stronger
Wow!!!!!!photo of the meteor when explode in the atmosphere!!!!!!! I love you atmosphere


Police officers, environmentalists and EMERCOM experts at the site of a meteorite hit in the Chelyabinsk Region. Small 0.5-1 cm pieces of black matter resembling rock were found around the ice hole caused by the meteorite. Photo courtesy of the press service of the Interior Ministry's Main Directorate for the Chelyabinsk Region.(RIA Novosti)
ECMWF is mainly in AL and MS, lifts north past then, hoping for a southerly trend:



Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Hey WuGirl...

why do you put the J so much on e-mail


What do you mean by the J??
Quoting WunderGirl12:


What do you mean by the J??


nevermind
Quoting yonzabam:


Very probably, as 2012 DA14 passes Earth today, at a distence of some 17,000 miles. It's 150 ft in diameter, so just as well it's passing us.

This was probably a fragment, and has been estimated at just 10 tons, exploding 25 miles up.

You'd think something that small and at that altitude wouldn't cause much concern if it exploded, but there are reports that some 500 people have been injured, mostly by flying glass, and 14 hospitalized. No deaths reported.

NY Times article

Link


Whether or not this was a piece of "the big one" matters very little- I will still be looking up all day! I have been reading "Lucifer's Hammer" Link lately, so this gives my imagination a great big playground. I'll be watching for roaming cannibals now :))
Quoting goosegirl1:


Whether or not this was a piece of "the big one" matters very little- I will still be looking up all day! I have been reading "Lucifer's Hammer" Link lately, so this gives my imagination a great big playground. I'll be watching for roaming cannibals now :))


Apparently, the trajectory was different from that of the 'BIG ONE', so 'just' a coincidence. Some coincidence, if you ask me.
956. VR46L
Two fronts in Florida Peninsula tomorrow Hopefully more rain for them

RE: 949

Stormchaser 19:

Thanks. That picture is incredible!

Lindy
Quoting VR46L:
Two fronts in Florida Peninsula tomorrow Hopefully more rain for them



The stationary front is sitting on top of florida. too much rain and cloudy skies...
Sky news now saying 950 injured with 46 hospitalized. This is quite unprecedented.

Link
960. VR46L
Quoting WunderGirl12:


The stationary front is sitting on top of florida. too much rain and cloudy skies...


You might even see snow in parts of North Florida .
Biggest impact was to this building



The meteor explosion over Russia that injured more than 500 people and damaged hundreds of buildings was not caused by an asteroid zooming close by the Earth Friday afternoon, a NASA scientist says.

NASA asteroid expert Don Yeomans, head of the agency's Near-Earth Object Program Office, told SPACE.com that the object which exploded over a thinly inhabited stretch of eastern Europe today was most likely an exploding fireball known as a bolide

Fox News

Quoting yonzabam:


Apparently, the trajectory was different from that of the 'BIG ONE', so 'just' a coincidence. Some coincidence, if you ask me.


It seems like a strange coincidence, but stranger things have happened. Still, I will be watching as the big rock flies by. Can't be too careful :))
Quoting RitaEvac:
Biggest impact was to this building





wow..those are some great pictures
Rita... the hole... "It's a perfect circle!!!"
(lines from a classic horror movie)
Thanks for finding that image. Cool.

With all those video perspectives, it seems like you could make a 3D image of the trail and smoke plume dispersal.

Thanks for the info about Russian Dash Cam's, I didn't know about them. They must have the Best Funniest Dash-cam Video shows on the planet!
Quoting biff4ugo:
Rita... the hole... "It's a perfect circle!!!"
(lines from a classic horror movie)
Thanks for finding that image. Cool.

With all those video perspectives, it seems like you could make a 3D image of the trail and smoke plume dispersal.

Thanks for the info about Russian Dash Cam's, I didn't know about them. They must have the Best Funniest Dash-cam Video shows on the planet!


Keep refreshing this link every few hrs, good site

Quoting VR46L:


You might even see snow in parts of North Florida .


That would be nice. :-) Let it Snow, Let is Snow! :P but the problem is, i'm in CENTRAL florida, near the coast. BIG problem for snow....
Quoting biff4ugo:
Rita... the hole... "It's a perfect circle!!!"
(lines from a classic horror movie)
Thanks for finding that image. Cool.

With all those video perspectives, it seems like you could make a 3D image of the trail and smoke plume dispersal.

Thanks for the info about Russian Dash Cam's, I didn't know about them. They must have the Best Funniest Dash-cam Video shows on the planet!


And the most horrific. I've watched video compilations of road accidents recorded on Russian dashcams on liveleak.com. Not for the faint hearted. It's sobering to see how many fatal accidents result from badly judged overtaking.
Quoting WunderGirl12:


That would be nice. :-) Let it Snow, Let is Snow! :P but the problem is, i'm in CENTRAL florida, near the coast. BIG problem for snow....


I would be surprised if you do get snow there. Please put up pictures if you can
Impact location

If chemicals fall off a shelf and explode because a meteor shockwave hit the building... does Aflac cover that? Does FLO have a meteor insurance discount or does all of that fall under Acts of God?
972. eddye
look like we are going 2 get in the 30 in southfla weathergirl 12
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I would be surprised if you do get snow there. Please put up pictures if you can


I most certainly will put up pictures! :-) But the chances of snow = -3409594590345%. just joking. :-D
Wish I knew how to embed videos...

Anyways here is a link to the American Meteor Society, they have an awesome video of the meteor as seen in various cars driving around...
Quoting eddye:
look like we are going 2 get in the 30 in southfla weathergirl 12


I know. Cold jeans weather. :-) Nice. :-)
...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING...

COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHILE WINDS RELAX.

TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK OR JUST BELOW FOR A
FEW HOURS BOTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF A FREEZE LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS RELAX UNDER A CLEAR
SKY.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Biggest impact was to this building




This is the zinc refinery that had its roof and wall damaged from the shockwave. There was no "impact" of the meteor here. The 6 meter hole on the frozen lake is the only known impact so far.
New blog while I was writing...my comments are too late and so are withdrawn.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


actually further south.
The system doesnt have the pull and the further north it is, the more decoupled from the gulf air it is.
the nes 06Z run has a better pull on surface moisture but as you see:

LLJ from SW not SE:


also toned down trough a little bit:

Yesterday:


today:




However, knowing the GFS, it may trend stronger again.
the 90-110kt llj is gone though
I'm hoping for a trend south and east, and stronger

No, a farther south low does not make any sense.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Quake from the impact.



This is not even close to the impact site.....
When I consider some politicians' decision to vote against financial aid to states most impacted by this storm, I marvel again at the greed and self-centred nature of mankind, and of politicians in particular....
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
==============================

At 10:00 AM PhST, The Low Pressure Area was estimated at 910 km east of General Santos City (6.0°N, 134.0°E).

This weather disturbance is expected to bring moderate to heavy rains (5-10 mm/hr) and thunderstorms in Mindanao particularly the regions of Davao, Caraga and SOCCSKSARGEN which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Residents in these areas are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures.
Is the weatherunderground Bot broken?