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NHC increases hurricane forecast lead times

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:27 PM GMT on January 05, 2010

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced today that beginning with the 2010 hurricane season, their hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for the U.S. coast will be extended in time by an additional 12 hours. Warnings will now be issued 36 hours in advance instead of 24 hours, and watches will be issued 48 hours in advance, instead of 36 hours. The increase in lead time for watches and warnings has been made possible by the tremendous improvement in hurricane track forecasts, which have improved by over 50% in the past twenty years (Figure 1). "With increases in population and infrastructure along vulnerable U.S. coastlines, emergency managers need more lead time in order to make life-saving decisions regarding evacuations", said Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center, in today's press release.


Figure 1. Average track errors for NHC Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane forecasts issued between 1990 - 2008. Track errors have improved by over 50% in the past 20 years. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Commentary
NHC has been debating for a number of years how best to "invest" the gains accrued from the steady improvement in hurricane track forecasts. One obvious savings from these better hurricane forecasts has come from the reduced evacuation costs. When a hurricane warning is issued 24 hours before the expected arrival of hurricane-force winds at the coast, it costs approximately $1 million to evacuate each mile of U.S. coast warned (Aberson et al., 2006). This number will be higher for more densely populated areas of the coast, such as Miami, and may be a factor of six lower for the North Carolina coast (Whitehead, 2003). According to a 2007 presentation at the 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, the length of coast warned decreased significantly in the past decade. During the decade of the 1990s, the average length of a hurricane warning was 455 miles, but that fell to just 335 miles between 2000 - 2006. Thus, an average of 120 fewer miles of coast were warned, at an average savings of $120 million per hurricane warning issuance. During this period, 17 storms requiring 25 hurricane warnings occurred. If the costs of coastal evacuations are indeed $1 million per mile, the improved hurricane forecasts between 2000 - 2006 resulted in savings of $3 billion compared to what the forecasts of the 1990s would have cost.

However, the new increased lead times for hurricane watches and warnings will lead to an increase in the length of coast warned, due to the higher uncertainties in hurricane tracks at longer forecast lead times. Between 2004 - 2008, approximately 25% of the coast that was placed under a hurricane warning actually received hurricane force winds; this percentage was 20% for areas placed under a hurricane watch. These percentages will decline with the new increased watch and warning lead times, costing money in unnecessary evacuations, and leading to increased complacency in the warned population due to too much "crying wolf".

Balanced against these increased costs is the potential disastrous loss of life should a hurricane hit an unprepared, heavily populated shoreline. With the U.S. population continuing to increase rapidly in coastal regions, the time needed to evacuate vulnerable populated regions is increasing. For example, evacuation times for the major urban areas of Texas are 28 - 34 hours for a major hurricane. Though the costs of overwarning the coast is significant, the savings in both human lives and dollars from increased warning times should outweigh these costs. In the 2002 book, Hurricane: Coping With Disaster, Dr. Hugh Willoughby, former director of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory, analyzed hurricane death statistics. In 1950, about 70 U.S. residents died per year in hurricanes. In the 50 years since, the coastal population expanded by a factor of 3.2, so if we were managing the hurricane problem the way we did in 1950, we would be losing about 220 people a year. The long-term average is still about twenty per year, not including the deaths due to the levee failures during Katrina. That means we're preventing about 200 deaths per year compared with 1950. How much are these saved lives worth? A life, is, of course, priceless, but in the cold world of economics, the value of life-saving scientific research and government regulations is estimated using statistics of what people are willing to pay to avoid certain risks, and what extra money employers pay their workers to take on additional risks. This data comes primarily from payroll statistics, but opinion surveys also play a role. In 2004, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) valued an American life at $8 million. EPA cut the value of a life by 8% that year, and a further 3% in May 2008, making the economic value of a life $6.9 million in today's dollars. The Department of Transportation gives a lower figure of a life as being worth $5.8 million. Using this number implies a savings of about $1.2 billion per year for the 200 lives saved per year by better hurricane warnings and evacuations. Today's decision by NHC to increase warning times should continue this trend of saving lives, which will also provide considerable monetary benefit. Despite the increased costs and dangers of "crying wolf" too often due to overwarning the coast, I believe that the double value of saving lives--for both the intrinsic and monetary value of a human life--makes NHC's move of increasing warning and watch times the right call.

References
Whitehead, J.C., 2003: "One million dollars per mile? The opportunity costs of Hurricane evacuation", Ocean and Coastal Management 46, 1069.

I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Jedkins those GFS maps I put up would be pretty awesome if they verified :)


yeah I know!

All the local MET's are saying as rare as it is, dont be suprised to see some sleet or snow flakes this weekend>

That sounds like they are pretty confident that we will at least see a few flakes, which is pretty darn crazy, the mentioned high temps may not even reach 40 all weekend with mid 20's at night! this is gonna be something else!
I have to drive back all day Saturday from TN to South FL I hope I don't get caught in an icy mess, not fun to drive in...
1003. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'll believe it when I see it. Meanwhile check out the 18Z GFS, It has another phantom snow storm for the gulf coast at about 256 hrs or so.


Look at this for Crestview,FL...WTH?????????


Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Siberian air walled up against the Rockies now. Arctic air heading south and east:

1005. GBguy88
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


They probably went by the local mets in Pensacola saying 50% of chance.. but now they raised it to 70% of chance for thursday.. but didnt say what type of percipitation.. but those mets say its a possibility.. I believe we will get something or more.. and Fl better watch out if this L brings alot moisture or not.. depends how close it gets to the coast or not.. but anyways it would be alot of problems no matter what.. But I agree with Tampaspin and Bondonaro, that we will c sum snow or more.. we just got to check up on it, b/c it could change rapidly!


I'd really like to see some...but not counting chickens before they hatch. Checked the NOAA site as opposed to this one, and their forecast changed to include the possibility of light accumulation. I don't think anyone really has a precise idea on this one.
uhhh, can i please have a Houston wx discussion? Also what is the chance for snow here? it says highs tommorow of 37 and rain?
1007. Drakoen
Yes, the GFS is forecasting for snow from Central to South Florida as the Arctic airmass dives southward allowing for cold air to mix with the precipitation. This forecast from the GFS appears to be the coldest and wettest.
Quoting IKE:


Look at this for Crestview,FL...WTH?????????


Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.


Have fun.

It's all about the timing of the precipitation. If you get precip during your daily MAX, chances are it's not gonna snow. If it hits during your MIN, you have a better chance, so if the line goes through your area in the middle of the day your chances of seeing snow/mix are not AS great as if it moves through your area at night, or during you temp MIN.
1010. IKE
Andalusia,AL.....

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.


Mobile,AL....New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.


1011. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Have fun.



LOL.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'll believe it when I see it. Meanwhile check out the 18Z GFS, It has another phantom snow storm for the gulf coast at about 256 hrs or so.

looks like they showing a smaller artic blast close to North FL up and sum midwest to east coast.. but thats like 324hours out.. but u never know.. that could b another system to be looking at in the future but right now its not as bad as this artic plunge/so called snowstorm.. but everything changes tho.. ;)
1013. IKE
Tallahassee weather office is saying no snow for NW FL....Mobile,AL. office is saying yes to Okaloosa...Santa Rosa and Escambia counties of NW FL.

Someone is going to be right....vice versa....
1014. GBguy88
Quoting IKE:
Andalusia,AL.....

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.


Mobile,AL....New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.




The system in December was supposed to bring a dusting to an inch, and all we had was a nice wet rain with about 10 minutes of sleet mixed in. I always get hyped up beforehand, and then let down when nothing happens...trying a new approach ;)
Quoting GBguy88:


I'd really like to see some...but not counting chickens before they hatch. Checked the NOAA site as opposed to this one, and their forecast changed to include the possibility of light accumulation. I don't think anyone really has a precise idea on this one.


ya thats y u check back every now and then b/c anything can change.. and plus its harder to predict this type of weather for the south, b/c usually dont c it that much unless u get an artic blast like this and some percipitation.. we got all the ingredients but just depends where L develop and how far south or how close to the gulf coast..
Took at look at the GFS 18Z run maps. Intersting set up for some wintry precip in parts of FL, however, I am not ready to jump on the bandwagon and call for a SE US/FL snowstorm, yet.

The next 3 or 4 runs ought to be interesting.

However, Siberian Blast, Flight # -35 is proceeding south and eastward, and will arrive "on time". It is gonna get REAL COLD for the S Plains, Deep South, into FL for the next few days.

Looks like a moderating trend and a return to the Arctic Blast at around Day 14?
Drak how realistic is that cold and wet GFS run? snow for 18+ hours in central Florida is unprecedented. I don't believe that will really happen---but since many hours of that are at night, it implies accumulating snow in some places.

2" in Gainesville, Ocala or Orlando would be fun :)

I think we are too far north for snow though, here on the GA coast. The Friday morning event doesn't look like it will work out either.
heres what NOAA says about me in Niceville FL thursday day and night..

Thursday: Rain likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Wind chill values between 15 and 25 early. North wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Blustery, with a north wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
1019. unf97
This situation with the wintry precip forecast in FL is an ever changing situation. It's the perfect wait and see component for forecasting. But it is fun speculating what will happen that is for sure. So very rare even thinking about this for Florida.

However, with this extreme pattern, if it is going to happen, this is the type of set-up. Again, it's all about timing.
1020. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:
Tallahassee weather office is saying no snow for NW FL....Mobile,AL. office is saying yes to Okaloosa...Santa Rosa and Escambia counties of NW FL.

Someone is going to be right....vice versa....


I think you will get some rain and a brief period of flurries with no accumulation, at this time. he thickness criteria does not look any different to me for you than areas that are farther west in the northwestern panhandle. Thickness values would be between 540dm and 546dm on the 100mb-500mb. The PBL looks around 1260gpm and thickness around 1500gpm in the 850mb-700mb.
Quoting unf97:
This situation with the wintry precip forecast in FL is an ever changing situation. It's the perfect wait and see component for forecasting. But it is fun speculating what will happen that is for sure. So very rare even thinking about this for Florida.

However, with this extreme pattern, if it is going to happen, this is the type of set-up. Again, it's all about timing.


I agree with that.. im sure most of us will b happy and sum will not.. you cant please anyone in this world.. but i would love to c snow tho.. ;) i will post pictures on here if it does.. ;)
1022. Drakoen
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Drak how realistic is that cold and wet GFS run? snow for 18+ hours in central Florida is unprecedented. I don't believe that will really happen---but since many hours of that are at night, it implies accumulating snow in some places.

2" in Gainesville, Ocala or Orlando would be fun :)

I think we are too far north for snow though, here on the GA coast. The Friday morning event doesn't look like it will work out either.


It is not realistic in it's longevity but possible in the idea of wintry precip.
Drakoen 11:47 PM GMT on January 06, 2010
Yes, the GFS is forecasting for snow from Central to South Florida as the Arctic airmass dives southward allowing for cold air to mix with the precipitation. This forecast from the GFS appears to be the coldest and wettest.


It is hard to ignore the GFS when it has been consistent for many days. Local mets here in Tampa are all speculating. A common theme is that this type of event is difficult to forecast since it only happens every 30 years or so.
let me ask anyone this.. Ive been looking at GFS, NAM, and other models to just name a few.. and most of them have the moisture reaching the panhandle of FL by friday then thursday what are most of everyone is thinking at this point.. is it possible that it will come that late or you think it will switch back in forth until 12hours prior?
1025. unf97
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


I agree with that.. im sure most of us will b happy and sum will not.. you cant please anyone in this world.. but i would love to c snow tho.. ;) i will post pictures on here if it does.. ;)


Oh yeah, absolutely. if we get any snow here in Jax area, I'll be happy to post picutres of the event, along with our other Florida bloggers.

But, again, I am tempering my enthusiasm because I know there will be changes to the model runs about this situation.

We shall wait and see!
1026. aquak9
good evening from the Porch'o'Blog. 38º

unf and SSI- almost think if we were to have ANY chance of flurries, it's be more like after sunday day. But Gainesville and Ocala? not out of the question for thursday night.
1027. aquak9
heh heh heh unf...if it DOES snow in Jax, I'm gonna need a photographer, hahahahaha...
I keep hearing central florida but is that north central florida or just the orlando area
Quoting unf97:


Oh yeah, absolutely. if we get any snow here in Jax area, I'll be happy to post picutres of the event, along with our other Florida bloggers.

But, again, I am tempering my enthusiasm because I know there will be changes to the model runs about this situaton.

We shall wait and see!

I agree with ya.. I will wait til its like 2 hours b4 time if we are indeed goin to get any snow or not.. I will b happy that we will, but im not going to get my hopes up to a thing that rarely happens in FL..








yikes!

1031. unf97
Quoting aquak9:
heh heh heh unf...if it DOES snow in Jax, I'm gonna need a photographer, hahahahaha...


Yeah, O.K. LOL..
Quoting aquak9:
heh heh heh unf...if it DOES snow in Jax, I'm gonna need a photographer, hahahahaha...


If you do receive some snow, I am sure your going to take some real good pictures.

Meanwhile the Siberian Blast is singing a new song for the US:

1033. aquak9
so much south/central florida taking a hit on agriculture...but it's all across the country.

carry on...
Here's a taste of what the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area will experience from "Siberian Express, Flight # -35" over the next few days:

Wind Advisory
Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook



Tonight: A chance of rain before 3am, then a slight chance of freezing drizzle. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Windy, with a calm wind becoming north between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: Partly sunny and cold, with a steady temperature around 25. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 25. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 12. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 34. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17. North wind around 5 mph becoming south
1036. chawk
Just got home from work, Local Tampa news station is now calling for a 40% chance of sleet snow mix saturday and the coldest night yet to come Sunday.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Siberian Express, Flight Number -35, will move into DFW, TX at Midnight tonight, continue into the Deep South and the Southeast US on Sat 1-9-10.

This one is worse than the first piece of Arctic air. The first Arctic front was like dropping 5 ice cubes into a tall glass of water. The SECOND front is like dropping a ton of ice into the backyard swimming pool in comparison. It's a large chunk, covering the Western Half of Canada.

And yes, they're may be a third Arctic outbreak earlier next week. This Arctic front is hauling real fast. And this is not normal by any means :0).


I'm afraid highs will have to be stripped for the weekend and the warming trend(or should I say moderating) delayed til the mi-end of next week before another arctic airmass(I think that mild break will just be the eye of the storm).

Quoting jrweatherman:
Drakoen 11:47 PM GMT on January 06, 2010
Yes, the GFS is forecasting for snow from Central to South Florida as the Arctic airmass dives southward allowing for cold air to mix with the precipitation. This forecast from the GFS appears to be the coldest and wettest.


It is hard to ignore the GFS when it has been consistent for many days. Local mets here in Tampa are all speculating. A common theme is that this type of event is difficult to forecast since it only happens every 30 years or so.


Also it's not just all the GFS members predicting snow for Orlando. But as others have chimed in, let's see if modals stay this consistent.

If that Low is in the right place at the right time, Florida could have a once in a lifetime snowstorm(but let's not get ahead of ourselves lol).
evening all finally updated my blog and model runs
Area snow fell in Florida on Jan 19, 1977

And if "Siberian Blast, Flight# -35" does bring wintery precip to FL, many will be doing this:



Quoting aquak9:
so much south/central florida taking a hit on agriculture...but it's all across the country.

carry on...


The freezing weather country destroyed my potato plants; they went from a captivating green to an ominous dark color.
img src="http://" width="1024" height="791" alt="" />
Quoting Canekid98:
uhhh, can i please have a Houston wx discussion? Also what is the chance for snow here? it says highs tommorow of 37 and rain?

The non-Florida weather blog is on vacation. Please check back in a week.

honestly though, snow here in Houston isn't looking very likely. The moisture will likely miss the super-cold air on Thursday. As for Saturday, two models (NAM and Canadian) are saying there is a chance, and two models (GFS and ECMWF) are saying it will be too dry.
Crazy cold is approaching! My barometer here in Arlington, TX, has jumped from 29.99" to 30.05" in the last 45 minutes and yes, it's working properly and was set properly!!
1046. code1
Isn't it funny how the change of seasons makes us change our wishcasting talk? Cane season, we wish them to go elsewhere, snow season....bring it to FL! LOL
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Area snow fell in Florida on Jan 19, 1977



LOL @ the wind chill factors.
NOAA NWS Houston-Galveston, TX link below:

Link

A portion of NWS Houston/Galveston, TX Area Forecast Discussion, 5:38PM Today:

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY
TEMPS THURSDAY CLOSER TO WHAT GFS BUFR GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.
STILL EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN HALF. 18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A PERIOD
OF SLEET OVER OUR NW ZONES MAINLY 13-18Z THURSDAY...POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS IAH FOR A SHORT WINDOW 16-18Z.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET. REMOVED MENTION OF
SNOW. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THE SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SLEET. STILL EXPECT WINTRY PRECIP TO BE VERY
LIGHT AND TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED.
SNOW!!

The GFS 18Z is forecasting quite a bit of snow for central FL.

you guys in the freeze areas:

REALLY BE CAREFUL DRIVING SNOW IS NOT THE PROBLEM IT'S THE BLACK ICE. IF YOU THINK YOU HAVE HIT SOME DO NOT BRAKE!!!
1052. eddye
will it snow in se fl
Quoting code1:
Isn't it funny how the change of seasons makes us change our wishcasting talk? Cane season, we wish them to go elsewhere, snow season....bring it to FL! LOL


Couldn't have said it any better.
Whoo hoo!!!! not even 8 p.m. yet and already down to 59 degrees here in Nassau!!!! Now that's CHILLY.....

Something u Americanos may not know / realize is that houses in the Bahamas are built sans heating / insulation. This means that the house is coooling down with the outside temps, so that if it's 55 outside, it's likely to be at most 7 - 10 degrees warmer inside. Last night when it was 62 outside, it was 67 inside.

I think I'm going to need a couple pairs of socks with that extra blanket tonight..... LOL....
1055. Drakoen
It's already 39 at my house in suburban Lake Worth
I have a question. Is our low in W. TX the low we're looking to start generating all of this wintry precipitation or has it not formed yet?
Quoting eddye:
will it snow in se fl


The odds are very slim, below is a portion of the NWS Miami Area Forecast Discussion @ 3:56PM EST today:

...THERE IS ALSO A
REMOTE CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET OR ICE PELLETS MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...
A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS DEPART. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A
SECONDARY MID-LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING AROUND BASE OF DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA
ON SUNDAY...AND INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND AN EVEN HIGHER FREEZE POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS STILL
EXPECTED FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.
From Wikipedia- snowfall events for Florida.
Link
1059. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


I think you will get some rain and a brief period of flurries with no accumulation, at this time. he thickness criteria does not look any different to me for you than areas that are farther west in the northwestern panhandle. Thickness values would be between 540dm and 546dm on the 100mb-500mb. The PBL looks around 1260gpm and thickness around 1500gpm in the 850mb-700mb.


Thanks for the information.
Quoting charlottefl:
I have a question. Is our low in W. TX the low we're looking to start generating all of this wintry precipitation or has it not formed yet?


Please read this very well written and simply explained Area Forecast Discussion Link for NWS Tampa, FL:
Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
Whoo hoo!!!! not even 8 p.m. yet and already down to 59 degrees here in Nassau!!!! Now that's CHILLY.....

Something u Americanos may not know / realize is that houses in the Bahamas are built sans heating / insulation. This means that the house is coooling down with the outside temps, so that if it's 55 outside, it's likely to be at most 7 - 10 degrees warmer inside. Last night when it was 62 outside, it was 67 inside.

I think I'm going to need a couple pairs of socks with that extra blanket tonight..... LOL....
hey baha a little tip to stay warmer make sure all windows and doors are close in the house and put a full kettle of water to boil away on the stove the evaporating water from kettle will increase humity levels in your house and make the cooler temps feel warmer by creating a humdex in your home

Hi All forget the pressure reading. Been wacko for weeks. Its ok on my weather station but stuck on my computer. Its really 1019.5
33 degrees in Tallahassee right now. Lows have been lowered to below freezing Thursday night!!! 50% rain chance.
I need lot of moisture for my cold air!..lol..
looks like Mobile is going to miss the snow again...:( oh well, maybe next time..
1066. unf97
Current temp reading 32.8 degrees.

There is a chance the winter of 2010 will not stop at record cold and frequent freezes along the Gulf Coast. AccuWeather.com meteorologists are pondering the possibility of snow for the Sunshine State this weekend.


A storm could hook up with fresh cold air in such a way that rain ends a period of snow or sleet Saturday night into Sunday over the Florida Peninsula. That's right, we said Peninsula and not Panhandle.


Snow events in the Florida Panhandle are rare enough. However, the white stuff is almost unheard of farther south.


During Jan. 19, 1977, flurries flew in Miami. A bit of snow fell more recently at Daytona Beach during Jan. 24, 2003.


Will this weekend yield snow in Orlando, Melbourne, Jacksonville and Cape Canaveral? Time will tell.


Story By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski

Forums: Chat About This Weather Story
Hey jeff9641 How are you doing. What are your thoughts for after this weekend?
Quoting Jeff9641:
There is a chance the winter of 2010 will not stop at record cold and frequent freezes along the Gulf Coast. AccuWeather.com meteorologists are pondering the possibility of snow for the Sunshine State this weekend.


A storm could hook up with fresh cold air in such a way that rain ends a period of snow or sleet Saturday night into Sunday over the Florida Peninsula. That's right, we said Peninsula and not Panhandle.


Snow events in the Florida Panhandle are rare enough. However, the white stuff is almost unheard of farther south.


During Jan. 19, 1977, flurries flew in Miami. A bit of snow fell more recently at Daytona Beach during Jan. 24, 2003.


Will this weekend yield snow in Orlando, Melbourne, Jacksonville and Cape Canaveral? Time will tell.


Story By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski

Forums: Chat About This Weather Story


fla is getting snow i got it on special order
Quoting Jeff9641:
There is a chance the winter of 2010 will not stop at record cold and frequent freezes along the Gulf Coast. AccuWeather.com meteorologists are pondering the possibility of snow for the Sunshine State this weekend.


A storm could hook up with fresh cold air in such a way that rain ends a period of snow or sleet Saturday night into Sunday over the Florida Peninsula. That's right, we said Peninsula and not Panhandle.


Snow events in the Florida Panhandle are rare enough. However, the white stuff is almost unheard of farther south.


During Jan. 19, 1977, flurries flew in Miami. A bit of snow fell more recently at Daytona Beach during Jan. 24, 2003.


Will this weekend yield snow in Orlando, Melbourne, Jacksonville and Cape Canaveral? Time will tell.


Story By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski

Forums: Chat About This Weather Story


that was from b4 noon.. alot will change with these models.. right now its hearsay.. once L forms or not.. they will have a better idea or how much moisture there will be.. right now its hard to stay .. b/c models keep flip floping.. even with a day b4.. its madness i tell ya.. ;)
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:



can you post that same map, but the gfs model? plz TIA
1072. aquak9
unf- - 35.8 here, you must be further inland...well you are a little further north, too. Maybe ten miles further north.
Siberian Express Flight # -35 is now arriving for Ponca City, Oklahoma City, OK, Wichita Falls, TX to near Lubbock, TX.

1074. IKE
34.9 outside my window.
1075. unf97
Quoting aquak9:
unf- - 35.8 here, you must be further inland...well you are a little further north, too. Maybe ten miles further north.


I am inland in northern Duval county within about 5 miles from JIA. (near Dunn Ave. area near I-295)
28 degrees at Tallahassee airport.
1077. dayton
Could someone please give me a 10 day forecast for Nassau, Bahamas.
Thanks
1078. aquak9
m'eyeballs freezin out here..


ya'll have a warm one.
1079. IKE
Amarillo, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 43 sec ago
Light Freezing Drizzle
19 F

Light Freezing Drizzle Mist
Windchill: -1 F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 18 F
Wind: 34 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 44 mph

Pressure: 30.16 in (Rising)
Visibility: 2.5 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 3606 ft
Quoting IKE:
Amarillo, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 43 sec ago
Light Freezing Drizzle
19 �F

Light Freezing Drizzle Mist
Windchill: -1 �F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 18 �F
Wind: 34 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 44 mph

Pressure: 30.16 in (Rising)
Visibility: 2.5 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 3606 ft


Holy lord that is some wind!
Quoting dayton:
Could someone please give me a 10 day forecast for Nassau, Bahamas.
Thanks
Wunderground has one posted here.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


can you post that same map, but the gfs model? plz TIA


I cant find a GFS map like the NAM Model from Accuweather.com. unless someone can get it.. I know tampaspin has a goodone, but i dont have the link or anything unless sum1 would like to share.. thanks if u do.. sry VAbeach!
Amazing, btw, that temps are supposed to stay below 75 here during that time period. Last year we were having record highs of 82-83 in January, yet.
1084. hydrus
Quoting ElConando:
33 degrees in Tallahassee right now. Lows have been lowered to below freezing Thursday night!!! 50% rain chance.
Whatever happens, it will definitely feel cold and raw in and around the Florida Capitol tonight.
Quoting hydrus:
Whatever happens, it will definitely feel cold and raw in and around the Florida Capitol tonight.


It was dropping quite quickly. I walked into Walmart at around 6:15 got out around 6:40 and it was so much colder.
38.6 degrees in Oakland Park, FL @ 8:50 PM. Had frost on my car this AM briefly. I think metro broward county can expect frost tonight bigtime
I have a question for everyone. I've been reading the this blog and NWS statements and the models all day. It seems this Siberian High is pushing the storm south and it now seems like South Florida and Central Florida East Coast are in for one hell of a snowstorm saturday evening. Your thoughts?

its droppin again.. hmm
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


that was from b4 noon.. alot will change with these models.. right now its hearsay.. once L forms or not.. they will have a better idea or how much moisture there will be.. right now its hard to stay .. b/c models keep flip floping.. even with a day b4.. its madness i tell ya.. ;)


Eh...But this isn't a long range(10 or even 7 day) forecast. If models do change, the snow belt will probably be to the north or south of where they currently expect it to be(based on how models performed in the past for events unfolding in about 3 days).

The good news is models seem to be handling this system better(as opposed to 12-24 hours ago).
1092. IKE
Does anyone on here know how I can go back and get the moonrise for my location on January 1st?
Largo Fl, Largo, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3 min 23 sec ago
36.1 °F
Clear
Windchill: 36 °F
Humidity: 96%
Dew Point: 35 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.19 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 40 ft

Quoting weatherbro:


Eh...But this isn't a long range(10 or even 7 day) forecast. If models do change, the snow belt will probably be to the north or south of where they currently expect it to be(based on how models performed in the past for events unfolding in about 3 days).

The good news is models seem to be handling this system better(as opposed to 12-24 hours ago).


ya finally.. but most models having the moisture come in on thursday night into friday into FL panhandle then move east, then east northeast when hits near east coast of central FL.. but if it does snow great if it doesnt then it wasnt meant to be.. but right now im not going to guess yet until that L forms.. I do c the storm from the midwest coming more to the south more as the artic air comes south.. I have a feeling theres goin to b alot more moisture with this system when the L forms..
Quoting mara0921:
I have a question for everyone. I've been reading the this blog and NWS statements and the models all day. It seems this Siberian High is pushing the storm south and it now seems like South Florida and Central Florida East Coast are in for one hell of a snowstorm saturday evening. Your thoughts?


less than 1% chance
Quoting IKE:
Does anyone on here know how I can go back and get the moonrise for my location on January 1st?


Link
1097. eddye
i say 50 percent chance of snow in se fl

Thursday Night: Snow likely, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

I have to drive from NC to Cincinnati on Friday. ARGH!
Can someone please post a link to the latest models. Are we suppose to get snow in West Palm Beach? Waht is going on? If someone could please post a detailed explanation and what models are forecasting this event to happen? This is very exciting!!!
Is it true when the actual air temp. and dew point are the same frost forms?
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


I cant find a GFS map like the NAM Model from Accuweather.com. unless someone can get it.. I know tampaspin has a goodone, but i dont have the link or anything unless sum1 would like to share.. thanks if u do.. sry VAbeach!


haha its ok :) thanks for checkin
good evening
1103. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link


Thanks...you always provide excellent information and links.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


haha its ok :) thanks for checkin


no problem.. i will try to get it from sum1 soon.. hope tampaspin or some1 has it.. I know for sure tampaspin unless i stumble upon it..
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Is it true when the actual air temp. and dew point are the same frost forms?


condensation forms - best example is fog
1106. unf97
It is now just below the freeze mark here. Currently 31.8 degrees.
Quoting Chucktown:


condensation forms - best example is fog

No I'm talking about when temps are near freezing. I think the winds have to calm down and there has to be high humidity.
Quoting tornadodude:
good evening


Are you enjoying your snow? My anemometer got "broken in" today, was the breeziest day since Christmas Day, gusts up near 20MPH out of the SE. About midnight tonight, it will get a "real, good workout", NW winds of 20MPH gusts to 40MPH+.
If that band across Missouri and Kansas moves across me, I would be quite happy (:

Nassau @ 9 p.m. Airport reports 59; outside my door, 59. But it is "sticky".... forecast low for tonight is only 59, but I think it will get lower than that. The skies are clear, so nothing to keep temps from plummeting, and it's already 59....

Quoting tornadodude:
If that band across Missouri and Kansas moves across me, I would be quite happy (:


Hey Tornadodude.. how r u doing.. and how much u expecting from the snow storm..hopefully i can get sum snow in the fl panhandle.. but right now its a wait and c.. just my opinion..
1112. GBguy88
Well...I think I'll go ahead and call this a non-event for the Pensacola area. Call me crazy or a downcaster or whatever you may. Guess I better fill the tank for a ride to mid-Alabama tomorrow...thank goodness for 32mpg and a $1000 set of tires.
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:

Hey Tornadodude.. how r u doing.. and how much u expecting from the snow storm..hopefully i can get sum snow in the fl panhandle.. but right now its a wait and c.. just my opinion..


hey there, um I'm expecting 5-6 inches, hopefully you will get some snow!
Quoting GTcooliebai:

No I'm talking about when temps are near freezing. I think the winds have to calm down and there has to be high humidity.


Humidity doesn't have to be all that high - I have seen frost form with a temp below freezing and a dewpoint near 0. Frost can actually form when the air temperature is above 32. The proper height to read the air temperature is 4-6 feet above the ground, but cold air being more dense than warm air tends to settle along the ground. Sometimes you will see an official low temperature being recorded as 34 or 35 degrees, but still a widespread frost had occurred becuse it was at freezing right along the ground.
Something else I'm remembering by looking at today's temps is how small our diurnal range usually is. We got up to 69 today. Our record LOW for today is only 57, which is only 2 degrees cooler than we are now. It seems we rarely range much more than 12 degrees between daily highs and lows, from my quick look back at recent temp records.

Big contrast with places in the US where it can be 70 in the day - and 35 at night!
Anybody in the Central / South area of FL still "expecting" snow? It looks like the models and mets have backed off the possibility big-time....at least for this particular cold weather event.
I think we will see Pinellas County go under a freeze warning during the 11 o'clock news.
Chuck...You're saying no Holy City snow?
1120. Ossqss
Howdy, stumbled across a site packed with some free media/documentaries and stuff and thought I would share it. I missed the beginning of a show on the science channel and found the whole thing on the site linked. :)

L8R

http://factualtv.com/documentary/The-Crystal-Ocean
Quoting tornadodude:


hey there, um I'm expecting 5-6 inches, hopefully you will get some snow!

I sure hope so.. but most the models i check have the percipitation coming in mostly on friday.. and maybe sum showers sat and sun b/c sum moisture could hug the coast of the panhandle.. but the weekend is a big IF.. But I believe they might have to extend the forecast.. any thoughts from u or anyone else? or am im seeing this wrong or the models might flip flop again b/c of a possible rare event that could happen?
So is the rain in front of this cold air supposed to be bad? Im in SELA. The rain should start tomorrow.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Anybody in the Central / South area of FL still "expecting" snow? It looks like the models and mets have backed off the possibility big-time....at least for this particular cold weather event.


I hope not. I bought gloves and a ruler (with millimeters) to measure any potential snowfall.

I guess we won't really know till Saturday.
1116. BahaHurican 2:25 AM GMT on January 07, 2010
Anybody in the Central / South area of FL still "expecting" snow? It looks like the models and mets have backed off the possibility big-time....at least for this particular cold weather event.


Which models have "backed off"? The GFS is still very bullish on frozen precip for Central to South Central FL.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Something else I'm remembering by looking at today's temps is how small our diurnal range usually is. We got up to 69 today. Our record LOW for today is only 57, which is only 2 degrees cooler than we are now. It seems we rarely range much more than 12 degrees between daily highs and lows, from my quick look back at recent temp records.

Big contrast with places in the US where it can be 70 in the day - and 35 at night!


Tallahassee is like that especially in September. It the low can be 49 and the high can be 82-83.
Quoting jrweatherman:
1116. BahaHurican 2:25 AM GMT on January 07, 2010
Anybody in the Central / South area of FL still "expecting" snow? It looks like the models and mets have backed off the possibility big-time....at least for this particular cold weather event.


Which models have "backed off"? The GFS is still very bullish on frozen precip for Central to South Central FL.


how about north central florida
Quoting Portlight:
Chuck...You're saying no Holy City snow?


We're going with a slight chance on Friday morning. Looks like maybe just a few flurries if the arctic air can get in here quick enough. We're gonna get to 50 tomorrow, so the boundary layer is going to be too warm for snow until very early Friday morning. The next system on Saturday morning looks to be too far south and east before it really "bombs" well offshore. The entire column will definitely be below freezing by Saturday morning but no moisture for dendritic ice crystal growth (snow).
Quoting Chucktown:


We're going with a slight chance on Friday morning. Looks like maybe just a few flurries if the arctic air can get in here quick enough. We're gonna get to 50 tomorrow, so the boundary layer is going to be too warm for snow until very early Friday morning. The next system on Saturday morning looks to be too far south and east before it really "bombs" well offshore. The entire column will definitely be below freezing by Saturday morning but no moisture for dendritic ice crystal growth (snow).


Excellent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Anybody in the Central / South area of FL still "expecting" snow? It looks like the models and mets have backed off the possibility big-time....at least for this particular cold weather event.


Don't know what you mean. The modals still say the same thing. And around Orlando the mets are still talking about the potential snow.
Quoting weatherbro:


Don't know what you mean. The modals still say the same thing. And around Orlando the mets are still talking about the potential snow.

isnt the new models supposed to come out soon or later? idk when they update the models.. i forget.. i know they do it a few times a day..
Does anybody know what % chance Mobile has of getting snow Thursday night?
Evening Wunderfolks.
Record Broken in Daytona today.
Record Report
Statement as of 4:42 PM EST on January 06, 2010
... Record low temperature set at Daytona Beach... a record low temperature of 28 degrees was set at Daytona Beach this morning. This breaks the old record of 30 set in 1999.

Current conditions:
Daytona Beach (Ponce Inlet), FL, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS) Updated: 11 sec ago
30.6 %uFFFDF Clear
Windchill: 31 %uFFFDF
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 25 %uFFFDF
Wind: 0.0 mphfrom the WSW
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.21 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 12 ft
Turning in. Have a nice evening everyone.


I am 20 miles north of Okeechobee, south central florida,
33 on my front porch,

went and threw some extra blankets on my tropicals, already ice on the car and the grass is crunchy. brrrrrrrr

It was 28 here this morn with a major heavy frost, can't wait to see what the temp will be in the morn

So do you reckon we are going to get snow.
now that would be a Kodak moment
SnowCoverLoop

heres another good one if u like.. I still cant find a good GFS snow cover map..
1127. doabarrelroll 2:41 AM GMT on January 07, 2010
Quoting jrweatherman:
1116. BahaHurican 2:25 AM GMT on January 07, 2010
Anybody in the Central / South area of FL still "expecting" snow? It looks like the models and mets have backed off the possibility big-time....at least for this particular cold weather event.

Which models have "backed off"? The GFS is still very bullish on frozen precip for Central to South Central FL.


how about north central florida


Looks like the GFS wants to bring frozen precipitation to about the Gainesville area. Also, a little bit in the Tallahasse area. I think we'll have a much better idea this time tomorrow night.
Here's a WU SST update for today:



Cyclone Seven has formed in the Indian Ocean, and the western flank is tapping into warm 30C water. The storm will remain over these warm waters for several days, likely to allow the storm to strengthen and become larger in size, and the cyclone's western flank is currently experiencing a flare-up.

The warm 30C+ region of the ENSO warm pool is funelling in two directions: toward the South Pacific warm pool (toward the Ross Ice Shelf and Antarctica) and toward the southeast (Chile Humboldt cut-off). The good news with the Humboldt cold current is that the southeastern 20C limit of the greater ENSO warm pool has not advanced toward the Chilean coast in the past week. The bad news is that the both the length of the current and the width have diminished over the past few days.

Meanwhile, the warm area west of Spitsbergen has warmed to 14C at its center, while the Norwegion section of the Gulf Stream keeps retreating. The warm anomalies indicate a possible diversion toward western Greenland, where generally ice-free SSTs have advanced past Jakobshavn Isbrae.



Quoting presslord:


Excellent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Yea Press, get some of that. Every once in a while I have to show off my meteorological skilz. LOL
its 35 degrees at my house in Pinellas which is just west of Tampa.
I kept forgetting to buy a new snow shovel for the last two years.... 2 months ago... I bought two new ones :)

With the weather we have been having... I doubt I will need them this year..as we are now heading into SPRING.

Do I hear any opening offers.... I will accept a starting offer of $20 each.. plus shipping.


Shep... RTLSNK... BF...

Who wants to start the bidding :
I have a prediction on January's world-wide temperatures.

Despite January being the 3rd coldest on record in North America, 4th in Europe and we saw record snows in China, and the polar bears have plenty of ice to fish on, January was the 4th warmest on record.

Sorry for the sarcasm but somehow it is going to get spun in a GW direction.

1142. GBguy88
Anyone have any good graphics to illustrate how fast the high is advancing?
Is it snowing in Florida yet :)
1144. GBguy88
Quoting Orcasystems:
Is it snowing in Florida yet :)


Negative.
28 in gainesville
Quoting severstorm:
Hey jeff9641 How are you doing. What are your thoughts for after this weekend?


I'm doing great! I think if there was ever a time we would get snow this would be it. I just need more model data to confirm this potentia event on Sat. Take care!!
Going to be hard to sell my snow shovels if its not snowing in Florida or NOLA.... KOG, throw on a couple more fans and I will split the profit with you... how many places in Florida could possibly be selling Snow shovels :)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Going to be hard to sell my snow shovels if its not snowing in Florida or NOLA.... KOG, throw on a couple more fans and I will split the profit with you... how many places in Florida could possibly be selling Snow shovels :)


I just have a feeling someone in C FL is going to get 4" plus of Sat. Sounds like Joe B. LOL!!
This morning Pinellas County was NOT under a freeze warning and yet a couple of my neighbors ran their sprinklers and everything froze.
Quoting jrweatherman:
I have a prediction on January's world-wide temperatures.

Despite January being the 3rd coldest on record in North America, 4th in Europe and we saw record snows in China, and the polar bears have plenty of ice to fish on, January was the 4th warmest on record.

Sorry for the sarcasm but somehow it is going to get spun in a GW direction.


how's it possible that the world had its 4th warmest Jan. on record. I'm guessing it has something to do with Antarctica and the continental ice shelf.
Quoting jrweatherman:
This morning Pinellas County was NOT under a freeze warning and yet a couple of my neighbors ran their sprinklers and everything froze.

Wow I was thinking the same thing when I went to take a shower I picture the water freezing into ice as it came out the shower head.
Quoting jrweatherman:
This morning Pinellas County was NOT under a freeze warning and yet a couple of my neighbors ran their sprinklers and everything froze.



Ummmmm Duh
1153. eddye
will any one go into weather chat so we can talk about the snow that will maybe happen in fl
Quoting Orcasystems:
Going to be hard to sell my snow shovels if its not snowing in Florida or NOLA.... KOG, throw on a couple more fans and I will split the profit with you... how many places in Florida could possibly be selling Snow shovels :)
actually i had a tech on the roof today adjust all the blowers to maximum output there in overdrive be back next week for a shut down and service
It looks like there is some sleet in SETX's future.

Quoting eddye:
will any one go into weather chat so we can talk about the snow that will maybe happen in fl

how do you do that?


Its cold D:
1158. eddye
will someone join me in weather chat please
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
actually i had a tech on the roof today adjust all the blowers to maximum output there in overdrive be back next week for a shut down and service


Just remember, they have to be off by the 11th... so its hot by the 13th in Mexico.


looks like right on 13th things warm up by 15 your in the 80's

you know who won't be looking for me
OK, Orca and KOG, time to aim the fans, just right, towards FL please:







...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TO BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES TO NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND SHOULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL BACK BELOW
FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRIGID WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 FRIDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE ARCTIC AIR...A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PATCHY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS
NORTH OF A GATESVILLE TO ATHENS LINE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO SEE FROZEN PRECIPITATION. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OF ICE ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY LIGHT
ICING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY ON ELEVATED BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES THAT REMAIN WET AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


looks like right on 13th things warm up by 15 your in the 80's

you know who won't be looking for me


Well done Grasshopper :)
poss. storm in gom north of ya though

howdy all,

still waiting for the snow to start (:
Quoting tornadodude:
howdy all,

still waiting for the snow to start (:


It's coming :O)! Would you like some freezing drizzle and 45MPH winds gusts with you snow order, sir?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Just remember, they have to be off by the 11th... so its hot by the 13th in Mexico.


I remember my mom going to Mexico City in Feb around 10-12 years ago for work. She nearly left without anything more than a sweater till she saw the lows would be in the mid to lower 40s for most of her stay. I didn't think it got under 50 much in Mexico City but I guess elevation helps.
Quoting Bordonaro:


It's coming :O)! Would you like some freezing drizzle and 45MPH winds gusts with you snow order, sir?


Where do you live again? 45mph gusts must give quite a wind chill.
Apparently... this is the #1 googled web page for Floridians in the last few days :)

Link
Temps at Mom's in Wyoming:



Brrr.
Quoting ElConando:


Where do you live again? 45mph gusts must give quite a wind chill.


Arlington, TX, I don't think they count wind gusts with the wind chill factor however. Our normal high is 54F/normal low is 34F for Jan, we haven't seen above normal since 12-23-09, when it was 76F. The next day, 3" of snow fell!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
932 PM CST WED JAN 6 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CST THROUGH 8 AM CST
FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS..

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND APPROACH
THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING. THE ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD START
PUSHING ACROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND WILL
LIKELY BE THE CASE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT
IN SOME SLICK SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH TEXAS
AFTER DAYBREAK...BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DEEPENS AND DRIES OUT.

Quoting atmoaggie:
Temps at Mom's in Wyoming:



Brrr.
that pressure is high 1040 to 1038
Quoting Bordonaro:


It's coming :O)! Would you like some freezing drizzle and 45MPH winds gusts with you snow order, sir?


haha why not :P


I believe its the updated version b/c i c snow possibility has got closer to fl.. so we will c once we get closer and all..
1175. eddye
elconado come back to weather chat
Quoting Orcasystems:
Going to be hard to sell my snow shovels if its not snowing in Florida or NOLA.... KOG, throw on a couple more fans and I will split the profit with you... how many places in Florida could possibly be selling Snow shovels :)


Got my snow shovel.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that pressure is high 1040 to 1038

Is mountainous measurement with a sea level adjustment...sometimes off by a few after that...

But, yeah, that is pretty high.

See the cool off? We were colder this morning than Wyoming...for a while.

There it was 32 F at 7 AM, by 8 AM it was 10 F...Chinook winds had a part in keeping them "warm" when it was 32 F.

Lost 22 F in one hour, as the sun was coming up.




lil more moisture than expected my opinion..
Quoting tornadodude:


haha why not :P


It'll give your 5" of snow a "light crunchy cover".
Enjoying our "heat wave", 10:11PM CST SE Arlington, TX:

Sky: Overcast
Temp: 48.1F
Dew Pt: 45.4F
Rel Hum: 90%
Winds: SE at 2 MPH
Bar Press: 30.09" and steady

Morning L: 28F
Afternoon H: 49F

Only 5F below normal. Thurs from 2AM-Sun NOON will be BAD here :0). And I LOVE IT!!





staying alive..
For the people from Florida... I put a post in my Blog #768, it explains what that mysterious button or switch is, thats in your dashboard.Its called a DEFROSTER. The insignia for the front window defrost looks just like the front window. The one for the back window looks just like the back window; these features normally have three settings: low, medium and high
Quoting Bordonaro:


It'll give your 5" of snow a "light crunchy cover".
Enjoying our "heat wave", 10:11PM CST SE Arlington, TX:

Sky: Overcast
Temp: 48.1F
Dew Pt: 45.4F
Rel Hum: 90%
Winds: SE at 2 MPH
Bar Press: 30.09" and steady

Morning L: 28F
Afternoon H: 49F

Only 5F below normal. Thurs from 2AM-Sun NOON will be BAD here :0). And I LOVE IT!!



haha supposed to be -3 saturday night for me :P
LOOK WHO'S COMING TO DINNER!!

Siberian Express, Flight -35, on time:


1185. ABlass
It's going to be a cool one tonite:

Forecast

Issued: 8.41 PM MST Wednesday 6 January 2010
Wind chill warning in effect.

Tonight:
Clear. Ice fog patches. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 30C (-22F). Extreme wind chill minus 41C (-41.8F).

Think I will just hunker down for the evening :)

A quick (probably dumb)noob question I haven't been able to find an understandable answer to: What causes the jetstream to move?
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Yay keep coming south!!


30hours out and im supposed to get 70% of percipitation tomorrow.. looks like maybe thursday evening into early friday.. what do you all think.. I seen this in most models..
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


30hours out and im supposed to get 70% of percipitation tomorrow.. looks like maybe thursday evening into early friday.. what do you all think.. I seen this in most models..


also it looks like accuweather made the L much stronger too ?? or?
Quoting ElConando:


I remember my mom going to Mexico City in Feb around 10-12 years ago for work. She nearly left without anything more than a sweater till she saw the lows would be in the mid to lower 40s for most of her stay. I didn't think it got under 50 much in Mexico City but I guess elevation helps.


It can get into the 20s at night in Mexico City occasionally--they are almost 8,000 feet above sea level.

Link
Quoting ABlass:
It's going to be a cool one tonite:

Forecast

Issued: 8.41 PM MST Wednesday 6 January 2010
Wind chill warning in effect.

Tonight:
Clear. Ice fog patches. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 30C (-22F). Extreme wind chill minus 41C (-41.8F).

Think I will just hunker down for the evening :)

A quick (probably dumb)noob question I haven't been able to find an understandable answer to: What causes the jetstream to move?


That was a GOOD question, not a stupid question. The warm and cool airmasses/ocean currents interacting causes the Jet Streams to move.

Check this link, then click on the buttons on the left. It puts the atmosphere in motion to see how it works.

Link
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1129 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010

INZ028-029-035-036-043-044-051-052-060-061-067-068-070800-
CLAY-DAVIESS-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-KNOX-MONTGOMERY-PARKE-SULLIVAN-
TIPPECANOE-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAWFORDSVILLE...LAFAYETTE...TERRE HAUTE...
VINCENNES
1129 PM EST WED JAN 6 2010

.NOW...
SNOW WILL BE MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE LIKELY BY DAYBREAK.
MOTORISTS SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO GET TO WORK IN THE MORNING AS
SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE EXPECTED.

$$

KOCH


Almost here, Siberian Express, bringing ICE cold temps to everyone in Texas:

1193. BtnTx
does anyone ever go to weather chat?
I think the new GFS models r being updating now.. so i will post them once there up..
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


It can get into the 20s at night in Mexico City occasionally--they are almost 8,000 feet above sea level.

Link


Wow it doesn't even get that hot either.
The water temperature at our local buoy has fallen to 51.3, the lowest reading since Jan 2003.
Tallahassee airport reporting 24 degrees yet the main one i use for Tallahassee has it just below freezing at 31.6 its been stuck around that for a while, maybe it went kaput from the temps lol.
1198. ABlass
Quoting Bordonaro:


That was a GOOD question, not a stupid question. The warm and cool airmasses/ocean currents interacting causes the Jet Streams to move.

Check this link, then click on the buttons on the left. It puts the atmosphere in motion to see how it works.

Link

Thank you muchly :)
Hope you have patience for another ? What causes the jetstream to shift positions?
The Aztecs and earlier civilizations there developed Chinampas, floating farmbeds on the lakes to help prevent frost damage. Link
Quoting Orcasystems:
For the people from Florida... I put a post in my Blog #768, it explains what that mysterious button or switch is, thats in your dashboard.Its called a DEFROSTER. The insignia for the front window defrost looks just like the front window. The one for the back window looks just like the back window; these features normally have three settings: low, medium and high


xD LOL. When I had the car for high school, many a time i used the defroster to dry the back window up from thick morning dew.
By Monday there should be a wikipedia article on the Artic outbreak of Early Jan 2010. Especially if some winter weather sneaks into Fla.
1202. BtnTx
The response to my previous post asking about weather chat was overwhelming! I will exit w/o reply as it is late
Quoting ABlass:

Thank you muchly :)
Hope you have patience for another ? What causes the jetstream to shift positions?


The battle of the air masses!

The warmer, moist air to the south, which is lighter, moves north, up and over the cold air. Then, the cold, dry air, which is more dense (heavier) tries to sink southward, forcing the warm air up in front of it. Add the Earth's rotation and you have storms develop. These storms help move the Jet Streams north and southward.
Quoting BtnTx:
The response to my previous post asking about weather chat was overwhelming! I will exit w/o reply as it is late


Do you have a specific question, feel free to ask and I will try to answer it for you!
11PM CST Weather Obs from NW TX, about 80 to 150 miled west of Dallas-Ft Worth, TX: NOTE the Wind Speeds:


CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
WICHITA FALLS LGT SNOW 30 28 92 N36G44 30.24R FOG WCI 14
WF-KICKAPOO LGT RAIN 34 32 91 N29G36 30.22R WCI 20
VERNON CLOUDY 29 22 76 N28G40 30.29R WCI 14
ABILENE CLOUDY 36 30 79 N23G33 30.17R WCI 24
ABILENE-DYESS CLOUDY 36 31 81 N16G28 30.16R WCI 26
BRECKENRIDGE CLOUDY 40 33 78 N18G29 30.13R WCI 31
GRAHAM CLOUDY 38 32 77 N28G38 30.13R WCI 27
1207. BtnTx
Quoting Bordonaro:


Do you have a specific question, feel free to ask and I will try to answer it for you!
does anyone use the chat?
The Siberian Monster has a Central Pressure of 1055MB/31.15"..BIG BAD FRIGID HIGH...

Quoting BtnTx:
does anyone use the chat?


Occasionally, especially during the heart of Hurricane Season, or a major winter/spring storms.
well, looks like the NWS boys are dragging their feet again tonight...guess they know how disappointed alot of us are now that our chances of snow are dropping dramatically..I like it better when we had a 60-70% chance..:(
1211. BtnTx
Thanks Bordonaro
Quoting BtnTx:
Thanks Bordonaro


Certainly, feel free to ask questions, there are alot of weather watchers, like myself who can help. Mr "atmoaggie" is a meteorologist, "StormW" is also very, very knowlegable. you can alwayssend them a WU e mail and they'll respond.
1213. Patrap
ESL by LSU GOES GOM IR Loop


Quoting AllyBama:
well, looks like the NWS boys are dragging their feet again tonight...guess they know how disappointed alot of us are now that our chances of snow are dropping dramatically..I like it better when we had a 60-70% chance..:(


Ally, they really do not know what exactly is going to happen. Snow is so rare in the Deep South. They will do "soundings", or readings of what is going on in the atmosphere from the ground up to 18,000+ FT, using "Mr of MS Weather Balloon", look at the computer models and put out a forecast, probably just before or after the cold front storms in.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Certainly, feel free to ask questions, there are alot of weather watchers, like myself who can help. Mr "atmoaggie" is a meteorologist, "StormW" is also very, very knowlegable. you can alwayssend them a WU e mail and they'll respond.


Hey Bob.. how u doing sir?
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Hey Bob.. how u doing sir?


Doing well. I am waiting for my "Midnight Siberian Express Flight #-30", to move in. The suspense is "killing me"!! It's about 30 miles N of the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX AP..
Quoting BtnTx:
does anyone use the chat?

Generally, everyone watches the blog, and/or asks questions in it. I have honestly never used the chat, and I've been a lurker on here for a good 3 years, and an actual paid member for 18 months.
thanks Bordonero..just wishing I was going to be in Nashville tonight!..lol
1219. Patrap
Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 11:16 PM CST on January 06, 2010

... Extended cold snap and possible record cold resumes Thursday
night through Sunday...
... A brief period of light wintry precipitation is possible
mainly in south Mississippi and upper southeast Louisiana
Thursday late afternoon...

Tonight will be a relatively warmer night than the past couple of
nights and a freeze is not expected. Clouds will will prevail
overnight and light rain will be possible toward daybreak Thursday.
A cold rain is expected for much of the area Thursday in advance of
a strong surge of Arctic air currently moving through the Great
Plains states. The dense cold air will flush the rain out of the
area but in doing so... may briefly transition to a mix of light
sleet and light snow with little or no accumulation before ending
Thursday afternoon or early evening. The area most likely to see
these conditions may be limited to the southwest Mississippi
counties and the adjacent Florida parishes. South of this area
temperatures should be warm enough to preclude winter precipitation.

The Arctic air will be the coldest this far south since February
1996 and will have a long duration impact for each night Thursday
night through Saturday night. Area temperatures may undergo freeze
durations of 12 to 16 hours each night... generally from shortly
after sunset until about mid-morning. Areas within hard freeze
warnings can experience those conditions for durations of 8 to 10
hours each night.

Some areas may experience record tying or record breaking low
temperatures. The following table is a listing of record minimum
temperatures for select locations in southeast Louisiana and
southern Mississippi.

Record minimums

Site Fri 1/8 Sat 1/9 sun 1/10 Mon 1/11
Baton Rouge 20/1970 17/1979 12/1962 10/1982
New Orleans area 17/1970 22/1970 16/1962 14/1962
McComb 16/1996 14/1979 7/1962 5/1962
Gulfport naval 20/1996 19/1979 15/1962 8/1982
Pascagoula (coop)20/1996 19/1996 22/1996 8/1982
Slidell 20/1970 19/1979 15/1962 9/1962
Audubon 25/1970 24/1958 15/1962 13/1962
Houma 21/1970 23/1970 16/1962 12/1962


In addition... the combination of very cold temperatures and wind will
produce very cold wind chill readings from 5 to around 10 degrees
Friday night and Saturday morning... and from around 10 to 15 degrees
Saturday night and Sunday morning. A Wind Chill Advisory may be
required Friday night and Saturday night.

Everyone in south Mississippi and south Louisiana should bring to
completion all freeze preparedness measures before sunset Thursday.
This includes the wrapping and protecting of exposed pipes... the
protection of sensitive plants and crops... the safe shelter of
outdoor pets and farm animals... and the care of individuals
vulnerable to the elements. Inspection and proper application of
heating equipment is urged to avoid fires and Carbon monoxide
poisoning. Also... dress appropriately for extended outdoor
exposure to the cold.
1220. JGreco
It looks like the NWS have finally backed off on the snow prediction and call for a 50% chance of sleet or rain on Thursday night with snow only making as far east as Mobile. Hopefully things change..sigh...


looks like L is trying develop moisture and starting to make its move and head towards the GOM..
GO MOISUTRE GO!..LOL
Quoting Bordonaro:


Doing well. I am waiting for my "Midnight Siberian Express Flight #-30", to move in. The suspense is "killing me"!! It's about 30 miles N of the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX AP..


O gotcha.. ya Im trying to figure this possible snow event out.. freaking south is wishy washy.. haha
Quoting AllyBama:
thanks Bordonero..just wishing I was going to be in Nashville tonight!..lol


I am back in Ft Worth, TX now. My daughter is in Nashville, TN. She said it has been miserable and cold, temps from 10-25F for a week, and they're receiving about 3" of snow tomorrow.
1225. Patrap
Put yer mittens and seat belts on the Next 72-96,itsa gonna get Bumpy in Dixie.




Will this weekend be any colder than current in the SE US?
1227. unf97
Quoting Bordonaro:
The Siberian Monster has a Central Pressure of 1055MB/31.15"..BIG BAD FRIGID HIGH...



Let's put this in perspective. This current Siberian High centered over the Canadian province of Saskatchewan has a pressure of 1055 mb. This is such an extremely impressive bitterly cold air mass that is on the way plunging down into the Central and Eastern CONUS.

During the big Arctic outbreak of December 22-24 1989, a Siberian High of 1052 mb dropped down out of the same region of Canada into the Northern Plains, and of course we all know what came to happen.

This current Arctic surge coming down over the next few days is similar to the very extreme pattern from Dec'89. This could be another outbreak for the record books as the potential is there for this to be every bit as impressive as the Dec.'89 outbreak. This set-up looks eerily similar.
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


O gotcha.. ya Im trying to figure this possible snow event out.. freaking south is wishy washy.. haha


Normally, the Deep South and Florida have mild winters. Normally, Florida has a "winter dry season", the Deep South has regular rounds of showers, an occassional freeze, nothing too dramatic.

Stage Left, Modiki El Nino, the weather patterns are "warming the Arctic" and dumping their normal airmasses from Siberia into the Eastern 2/3 of the US. The Central Pacific and the Equatorial regions near Peru are warmer than usual.

All I can say is check on the Forecast Discussions and check the NAM/GFS model runs, maybe everything will fall into place!
I haven't been to Nashville in a few years so I need to head that way sometime soon. I really love the city and miss living there - even though I sure hated to go to work when it snowed..if the buses ran then you went to work!..lol
1230. unf97
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


looks like L is trying develop moisture and starting to make its move and head towards the GOM..


Yeah, I have been watching that trend. Also,interesting to note is a feed streaming NE from the disturbance in the EPAC. How much of that moisture and energy ripples along through the southern stream jet in the next few days toward the GOM?
Quoting Bordonaro:


Normally, the Deep South and Florida have mild winters. Normally, Florida has a "winter dry season", the Deep South has regular rounds of showers, an occassional freeze, nothing too dramatic.

Stage Left, Modiki El Nino, the weather patterns are "warming the Arctic" and dumping their normal airmasses from Siberia into the Eastern 2/3 of the US. The Central Pacific and the Equatorial regions near Peru are warmer than usual.

All I can say is check on the Forecast Discussions and check the NAM/GFS model runs, maybe everything will fall into place!


thanks will do..btw i have, most r different between models and the forecast discussion.. i guess it b 6hours b4 i know what will happen..lol
Quoting unf97:


Let's put this in perspective. This current Siberian High centered over the Canadian province of Saskatchewan has a pressure of 1055 mb. This is such an extremely impressive bitterly cold air mass that is on the way plunging down into the Central and Eastern CONUS.

During the big Arctic outbreak of December 22-24 1989, a Siberian High of 1052 mb dropped down out of the same region of Canada into the Northern Plains, and of course we all know what came to happen.

This current Arctic surge coming down over the next few days is similar to the very extreme pattern from Dec'89. This could be another outbreak for the record books as the potential is there for this to be every bit as impressive as the Dec.'89 outbreak. This set-up looks eerily similar.


I lived in Arlington, TX in Dec 1989, I remember that airmass. It literally poured in, stayed 2 days and it was gone. The heart of the High parked over Dallas-Ft Worth, TX. We recorded a pressure of 30.99".

This scenario is different, the core of High pressure will take 2 1/2 days to come into E TX/W LA. The 1989 outbreak the High arrived in 24 hrs. The upper levels will gradually moderate the airmass. It will be cold, some records will fall, but not all of them, like in 1989.
1233. JGreco
Did anybody see the moderation of the forecast the NWS has made? It looks to be trending away from the snow event yet everybody is getting excited about the surge in moisture. Please explain?
1234. unf97
Quoting Bordonaro:


I lived in Arlington, TX in Dec 1989, I remember that airmass. It literally poured in, stayed 2 days and it was gone. The heart of the High parked over Dallas-Ft Worth, TX. We recorded a pressure of 30.99".

This scenario is different, the core of High pressure will take 2 1/2 days to come into E TX/W LA. The 1989 outbreak the High arrived in 24 hrs. The upper levels will gradually moderate the airmass. It will be cold, some records will fall, but not all of them, like in 1989.


There is a sufficient snowpack in place over the Northern Plains and Midwest that is keeping these arctic air masses from moderating rapidly though. You may be right Bordonaro, but based on current trends, I am inclined to think that moderating this 1055mb High coming down over that snowpack will continue to be a very slow process. It may be as late as Tuesday of next week before we see significant moderation in the Eastern CONUS.

It is fascinating nonetheless seeing these extreme patterns evolve.
Quoting JGreco:
Did anybody see the moderation of the forecast the NWS has made? It looks to be trending away from the snow event yet everybody is getting excited about the surge in moisture. Please explain?


well i notice they went rain/sleet if that for now for tonight.. it will b interesting tomorrow or later today how it will play out.. The moisture we r talking is the sw over central and southern mexico/southern texas slightly.. That moisture is looks like is heading in with that jet stream into GOM from what I can gather.. It could b possible that it can make it through.. we will c..
1236. ABlass
Quoting Bordonaro:


The battle of the air masses!

The warmer, moist air to the south, which is lighter, moves north, up and over the cold air. Then, the cold, dry air, which is more dense (heavier) tries to sink southward, forcing the warm air up in front of it. Add the Earth's rotation and you have storms develop. These storms help move the Jet Streams north and southward.


Thank you very much. I think I've got it now :)
Think I better go throw another log on the fire :)
Extremely weird. I was outside, smoking a cigarette, and the Severe Weather Sirens were going off!

The leading edge of the Arctic Cold Front is moving through the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area from NW to SE.

The Ft Worth Naval Air Station has N winds at 25 G 33MPH.

Arlington AP has SW winds at 6MPH.

Gonna get nasty cold, quick!
RIGHT. 58 on my porch. Mets haven't updated yet. Ah, they're still saying 59, which I can't believe.....

g'nite!
1239. unf97
Going to get some shut-eye for now. As I turn in for some sleep, the temperature now down to 25.2 degrees in north Jax.

Back on in awhile to check the updated model runs!

Have a good night/early morning everyone.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Extremely weird. I was outside, smoking a cigarette, and the Severe Weather Sirens were going off!

The leading edge of the Arctic Cold Front is moving through the Dallas-Ft Woth, TX area from NW to SE.

The Ft Worth Naval Air Station has N winds at 25 G 33MPH. Arlingto AP has SW winds at 6MPH.

Gonna get nasty cold, quick!


Well of course the sirens went off, you were SAM-MOKIN!!!
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Snow in Mexico? oy ye meh!!!!
Good early morning everyone......The models have only backed of slightly.....LOOKS like a Sleet event rather than a snow event for Florida will be likely.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good early morning everyone......The models have only backed of slightly.....LOOKS like a Sleet event rather than a snow event for Florida will be likely.


Quite frankly raining at 40 degrees for me is bad enough lol. If I want snow i go to it, it does not come to me!!!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good early morning everyone......The models have only backed of slightly.....LOOKS like a Sleet event rather than a snow event for Florida will be likely.

What about the cold? Will it be even colder here than the last two days?
Quoting Bordonaro:
Extremely weird. I was outside, smoking a cigarette, and the Severe Weather Sirens were going off!

The leading edge of the Arctic Cold Front is moving through the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area from NW to SE.

The Ft Worth Naval Air Station has N winds at 25 G 33MPH.

Arlington AP has SW winds at 6MPH.

Gonna get nasty cold, quick!


sorta sounds 'like day after tomorrow,' when the temps went down in seconds.. but it wont b like that with over -150 degree's, that would b rediculous.. burrrr.. stay warm bob and maybe we can get sum snow.. i guess im goin to get sum shut eye and catch up in the AM or later sumtime.. Ya'll have a good night..
Quoting ElConando:


Well of course the sirens went off, you were SAM-MOKIN!!!


The "tornado sirens" normally don't pull the "false alarm number". The Dallas Ft Worth area has a whole slew of severe t-storms to deal with every spring. They also use them when high winds move in. A North wind at 20-30MPH doesn't fit the criteria.

I was smoking a 100% Marlboro Medium?!? Honest!

Update, Arctic front arrived at 12:34AM CST 1-7-10..Let the fun begin..
Here is why it will probably be Sleet. We will have 3 different layers of Air....at the highest levels a flake will fall.....then it will turn into a raindrop as the LOW will pump some warmer air to the MId Levels then at the surface we will have colder air below freezing in Northern Florida...JUst my opinion but, i see a Sleet event in the North Florida area and maybe as far south into Central Florida possible.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good early morning everyone......The models have only backed of slightly.....LOOKS like a Sleet event rather than a snow event for Florida will be likely.


Hey Tim.. How was ur day Sir.. Ya Models and forecast discussions have been goin back and forth.. now its rain/sleet for me for now.. but anything can happen I will b def on in the morning or so..
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


sorta sounds 'like day after tomorrow,' when the temps went down in seconds.. but it wont b like that with over -150 degree's, that would b rediculous.. burrrr.. stay warm bob and maybe we can get sum snow.. i guess im goin to get sum shut eye and catch up in the AM or later sumtime.. Ya'll have a good night..


Not gonna happen like that movie, thankfully! Sleep well, I am about to lay down. I know the strong N winds will howl and wake me up!!
Quoting ElConando:


Snow in Mexico? oy ye meh!!!!


sure looks like it.. i would doubt it if they do or not.. or im not counting us out, but right now its up in the air.. but we will c .. if i would say maybe a mix but got a feeling we will get a surprise thursday night into early friday morning.. ;)
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Hey Tim.. How was ur day Sir.. Ya Models and forecast discussions have been goin back and forth.. now its rain/sleet for me for now.. but anything can happen I will b def on in the morning or so..


Hey JG i lived up north in Indiana and winter precip is the hardest to call by far. Even as good as technology is today they don't do a good job at forecasting winter precip until the last 24hrs and then it can be very wrong.
I still think and believe the Florida Panhandle and North Florida will see winter white stuff in some form.
New model just came out......

I would say Florida is back for wintery stuff.......LOL

Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey JG i lived up north in Indiana and winter precip is the hardest to call by far. Even as good as technology is today they don't do a good job at forecasting winter precip until the last 24hrs and then it can be very wrong.


ya its pretty bad down here, even the mets close to me dont know how to track a hurricane right or they blow it off, then boom that storm is form and there like well its b/c it was in the GOM and pretty warm thats y and it fought a great fight to b where it is.. lol thats just for example.. Im like okay and u call urself a chief Meteorologist(spelling).. im about to fall asleep sry if i didnt spell anything right.. but ya i dont trust them mets down here one bit.. sry if sum ppl do down here..
Quoting TampaSpin:
New model just came out......

I would say Florida is back for wintery stuff.......LOL


it could go either way or vice versa! ha
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:

it could go either way or vice versa! ha


We should know or have a better idea tomorrow nite....as it will be 24hrs out.
Quoting TampaSpin:


We should know or have a better idea tomorrow nite....as it will be 24hrs out.

if its 24hours out then they would have to extend the forecast like i was mentioning earlier today when i was looking at most of the models.. if thats true then the temps on friday will be little colder than thursday temps.. what ya think Tim?


Possible percipitation amounts!
1260. Motttt
Current Conditions


Ridge Lake, Sarasota, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 min 45 sec ago
35.9 °F
Clear
Windchill: 36 °F
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 33 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.22 in (Falling)


or what happens that L comes past that cold front/artic blast then they think? that would be crazy if that happens.
Quoting Patrap:
18 GENS zdp Image Loop,64 frames


Pat the 00 GENS Loop is out.
Quoting Patrap:
18 GENS zdp Image Loop,64 frames


hey pat.. when u watch that model run.. does it look like the midwest had an icy question mark during the middle of the run.. u will c ice/red i think that look like a question mark.. lol
1265. Patrap
That would be "spookie Cold" I guess


okay i wanted to sleep but i am wide awake and i know i wont sleep now.. booo but heres 84 hour temps
forecast is really tricky entering the picture for central and north florida this weekend. Alot of issues on things will matter if we see snow in this area.

Cold air in the lower levels will move down into northern and central florida Friday night.. over-running precip as a wave axis rides the front will happen later on Saturday in the midlevels. Its too early and hard to tell exactly how far south the freezing line will be over central florida and how far north the impulse will pull moisture ENE across central florida. Currently it looks like temps by Sat morning will be around 36 in Tampa to 35 in Orlando but in Ocala it could be down to 29-32.By then the mositure should be mainly in S Florida (south of I-4). Now the moisture overide in the midlevels isnt forecasted to really go thru until mid day. Temps by then should be around 41 in Tampa 40 Orlando 37 in Ocala as highs. Cold showers in Central florida.. and probably staying dry in Ocala. As the evening wears on and the moisture starts exiting Saturday night...cold air advection will trail the mositure and a light snow may happen from Pasco Hernado ENE across north central florida to near Orlando-Daytona line.. may see a light coating in the somwhat higher terrain in eastern Hernado area easterward. Temps will fall down to the lower 30s in the evening and 20s before midnight north of I-4 as the flurries-showers end. Morning lows will probably be in the 22-26 range in Ocala Sunday morning and 29-33 along I-4 line. Pinellas county should stay between 35-42 along the coast and near the intercoastal of east florida will probably only drop to the mid 30s. Sunday will be cold with isolated showers coming onshore and highs struggling to reach 45 along the coast to 40 dg inland. Sunday night will be in the 20s most areas with isolated upper 10s.
Quoting scottsvb:
forecast is really tricky entering the picture for central and north florida this weekend. Alot of issues on things will matter if we see snow in this area.

Cold air in the lower levels will move down into northern and central florida Friday night.. over-running precip as a wave axis rides the front will happen later on Saturday in the midlevels. Its too early and hard to tell exactly how far south the freezing line will be over central florida and how far north the impulse will pull moisture ENE across central florida. Currently it looks like temps by Sat morning will be around 36 in Tampa to 35 in Orlando but in Ocala it could be down to 29-32.By then the mositure should be mainly in S Florida (south of I-4). Now the moisture overide in the midlevels isnt forecasted to really go thru until mid day. Temps by then should be around 41 in Tampa 40 Orlando 37 in Ocala as highs. Cold showers in Central florida.. and probably staying dry in Ocala. As the evening wears on and the moisture starts exiting Saturday night...cold air advection will trail the mositure and a light snow may happen from Pasco Hernado ENE across north central florida to near Orlando-Daytona line.. may see a light coating in the somwhat higher terrain in eastern Hernado area easterward. Temps will fall down to the lower 30s in the evening and 20s before midnight north of I-4 as the flurries-showers end. Morning lows will probably be in the 22-26 range in Ocala Sunday morning and 29-33 along I-4 line. Pinellas county should stay between 35-42 along the coast and near the intercoastal of east florida will probably only drop to the mid 30s. Sunday will be cold will isolated showers coming onshore and highs struggling to reach 45 along the coast to 40 dg inland. Sunday night will be in the 20s most areas with isolated upper 10s.


Very well done Scott! It is all about the timing and arrival of everything....if it all comes together at nite more white stuff is possible......during the day less likely...Could be very interesting and it truly is very complicated to predict what will happen when dealing with frozen precip.
Tallahassee airport has a reading of 21 degrees... toasty.
Still not a record but Tallahassee readjusted its low from yesterday from 17 to 16 degrees still one degree off the record of 15.

I wonder if i broke my all time low lol


whoa!! whats that i see on my local radar.. lol i doubt we will c that.. its a possibility :P
Snow in Florida is now becoming more of a possibility, will be interesting to see what models show tomorrow. See? I told you that this pattern would favor possible snow all the way down south. Now will the elements come together? Or will we get ripped off? Time will tell. Saturday night will be an interesting night.
1278. Patrap
1279. Patrap
Great minds think alike.
1283. RTLSNK
26.6*F in Macon Georgia right now at 0400 hrs.

Weather statement has lowered the totals we are supposed to get, but still calling for rain/snow. Macon has no salt or sand trucks so it just shuts down here when it snows or ices up the roads. I have a supply of rock salt to clear the driveway. When I tell people here that they go - Rock Salt? What's that for? LOL

Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 3:16 AM EST on January 07, 2010


... Wintry precipitation possible for portions of central
Georgia Thursday evening and overnight...

A frontal system will approach Georgia this afternoon ushering
another round of Arctic air across the area. A wave of low pressure is
developing this morning over the northwest Gulf of Mexico... and
will move into portions of North Florida by this evening. Moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico will spread across Georgia along and ahead
of the frontal boundary.

For areas generally south of a La Grange to Monticello to
Washington line... rain is expected to begin Thursday afternoon
and gradually turn to a rain snow mix during the evening. Precipitation
is then expected to turn to snow by midnight and end Friday
morning. Any snow accumulations across this area will be light
with amounts less than one quarter inch.

For areas north of a La Grange to Monticello to Washington line... please
see the Winter Weather Advisory that has been issued by the
National Weather Service in Peachtree City.

Be especially cautious as wet surfaces refreeze... resulting in patchy
ice on sidewalks and roadways late Thursday night and Friday
morning. Drivers should use extra caution when traveling.

Residents of central Georgia should continue to monitor for
updates to the developing winter weather situation.

This is to strange.You folks are the same temp as here. Updated: 3:54 AM CST on January 07, 2010
22 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 12 °F
Humidity: 85%
Dew Point: 18 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 30.11 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Overcast 700 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1181 ft

Morning All.

More significant than the evening lows

Statement as of 6:30 PM EST on January 06, 2010

... Record low maximum temperature set at West Palm Beach...

A record low maximum temperature of 55 degrees was set at West Palm Beach
today. This breaks the old record of 57 set in 1919.
no freeze yet this yr 39-41 degrees this beautiful cool morning east cenral florida on the water ocean water temps. are reported down to 57f
1287. IKE
Morning low has been 28.6, so far.
just got home from work and the temp on the drive home reached 23 in places.
24F here along the ICW on Johns Island
1290. IKE
I looked and looked last night and couldn't find it, but how does one change their avatar?
Morning all.

Still quite chilly this a.m. with the NAS airport reporting overnight low of 58 and current temp of 61.

The only good thing about this cold wx so far is no rain in sight. I don't want to imagine it being this cold, and then having to deal with the possibility of getting wet.... yuck.
Quoting IKE:
I looked and looked last night and couldn't find it, but how does one change their avatar?
Ike, I think u just click on it, and there should be a button either just below or to the right saying "Change". Otherwise it's likely to be in the "settings" at the top of the page.
1293. unf97
Good morning

So far, the low temp here this morning reached 23.4 degrees.

Currently 24.2.




Very heavy frost on this morning.....first one really during this cold outbreak!
Quoting IKE:
I looked and looked last night and couldn't find it, but how does one change their avatar?


Up top under "My Quick Menus" select "My Photos". On the right hand side of page is "Upload a Portrait"
Ike, I think you have to select "modify my profile". Or "upload a portrait".... on the right hand side of the avatar page.
Anyway, I'm out for now, guys. I'll try to check in later for the newest blog. I'm hoping the doc will have something to say about this cold blast....
1298. P451
120HR GFS ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL FORECAST

Have you all looked at post 1267 latest run.....LOL

Good Morning all yeah lots of frost up here too Tim
1301. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Up top under "My Quick Menus" select "My Photos". On the right hand side of page is "Upload a Portrait"


I knew if you were around and read my question I could find out. You helped me get the moonrise and now how to change my avatar.

LOL...thanks...and thanks Baha.
1302. WxLogic
Good morning...

1303. IKE
From Mobile,AL...

** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION **

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A LOOK AT THE HIGH LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...FORECASTERS SEE NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...SUPPORTING THE PASSAGE OF
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES OF COURSE...ARE
THE FIRST OF MANY CHALLENGES ON THIS PACKAGE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THERE IS AGREEMENT FROM VARIOUS SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES THAT A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY JET
INTO THE GULF COAST...COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BRIEFLY INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST DESPITE CLOUD
COVER OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
THEN...TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE WARMER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ALONG THE COAST...LIQUID
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER CHARACTER TODAY AS
FRONTAL LIFT INCREASES. OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO
SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS
FOR ENOUGH POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATION TO MEET WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND WILL BEGIN THIS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES AT NOON
AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH THAT ALSO HAVE ADVISORIES GOING JUST NORTH OF
OUR NORTHERN COUNTY BORDERS.

A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLE LIGHT
SLEET/LIGHT SNOW OVER THE COASTAL ZONES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS
LINGERING MOISTURE MINGLES WITH DEEPER COLDER AIR COMING IN ALONG THE
BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING ARCTIC FRONT.
PRECIPITATION PROGGED TO END
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
CAUSING MINS TO SINK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. HARD FREEZE WILL LIKELY
CAUSE DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ON AREA
ROADS WILL TRANSITION TO BLACK ICE.
Wanna talk about absolutely brutal:

Quoting charlottefl:
Wanna talk about absolutely brutal:


Would you believe colder at my mom's? (Not trying to start a contest, here)
Near St Augustine Fl

Friday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Wind chill values as low as 25. North wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Northwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Link
1309. IKE
Almost hate to say it, but this blog flows so much better when ** isn't being b*tched about on here.

Still say the doc should have two separate blogs. One constantly about the weather. Another one about **.
Alright just to clear the air the probability of snow in C FL is real good. I do believe a nice band of light to moderate snow will cut across C FL with this disturbance but once this energy hits the Atlantic waters then a potential for heavy snow to occur from Flagler beach down to Melbourne. I am also sticking with my forecast of a potential for up to 4" of snow in those coastal areas. Futher inland maybe a 1 to 2" event is likely. P451 has a snow map up but it is cut off toward Daytona and it is there south where an area of heavy snow could occur.
Quoting charlottefl:
Wanna talk about absolutely brutal:



Wanna talk about beautiful......
Quoting IKE:
Almost hate to say it, but this blog flows so much better when ** isn't being b*tched about on here.

Still say the doc should have two separate blogs. One constantly about the weather. Another one about **.

IKE, sometimes the weather blog can get boring so people talk about non weather related stuff.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Alright just to clear the air the probability of snow in C FL is real good. I do believe a nice band of light to moderate snow will cut across C FL with this disturbance but once this energy hits the Atlantic waters then a potential for heavy snow to occur from Flagler beach down to Melbourne. I am also sticking with my forecast of a potential for up to 4" of snow in those coastal areas. Futher inland maybe a 1 to 2" event is likely. P451 has a snow map up but it is cut of toward Daytona it there south where an area of heavy snow could occur.

That much snow sticking is almost impossible with the radiant ground heat alone.....
Quoting TampaSpin:
I still think and believe the Florida Panhandle and North Florida will see winter white stuff in some form.


all our pipes are busted, (fla panhandle) my husband was out til 10 pm getting it all fixed, left water running at a low stream in every outlet and now this morning froze up again :( then he stepped on a water hose leading to a livestock waterer and the hose snapped like a twig :( i just hope it snows, that would make it exciting again at least. now it is just work work work and two days with no water!
1315. P451
Warmer in southern Greenland than northern Florida.



Definitely an oddity. Usually when Florida experiences cold you'd expect the rest of the US to be in an absolute deep freeze. Not the case. Isotherms are quite broad.
1316. IKE
Quoting twhcracker:


all our pipes are busted, (fla panhandle) my husband was out til 10 pm getting it all fixed, left water running at a low stream in every outlet and now this morning froze up again :( then he stepped on a water hose leading to a livestock waterer and the hose snapped like a twig :( i just hope it snows, that would make it exciting again at least. now it is just work work work and two days with no water!


Jeez...sorry you're going through tough times.
1317. P451
The GFS does have a trace accumulation for central Florida.




GFS Snowfall Forecasts


NAM Snowfall Forecasts

(click on your radar station!)
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

That much snow sticking is almost impossible with the radiant ground heat alone.....


Your right under normal circumstances remember it has been cold here for 6 days now and the ground temperature is in the 40's. I will go on record like it or not and say a snow event is coming so have fun in it.
1319. P451
Quoting Jeff9641:


Your right under normal circumstances remember it has been cold here for 6 days now and the ground temperature is in the 40's. I will go on record like it or not and say a snow event is coming so have fun in it.


I remember telling family over thanksgiving that I felt this was the year that Florida would see snow. I got laughed at. I also told them I felt us in NJ would get at least one big snow storm. Got laughed at again.

Who's laughing now? Not my freezing cousins in Melbourne that's for certain!

Now..everyone is cursing me. As if I caused it. LOL
1320. fredmc
This global warming is terrible! The last time I remember it being this cold on the Mississippi gulfcoast was back in 1972. The temp will be dropping into the 20's starting today. For this area, that is beyond cold! Someone please turn up the global warming heat for me!
1321. IKE
Heading for the gulf-coast...modified...thankfully....

Omaha, Nebraska (Airport)
Updated: 42 min 27 sec ago
Light Snow
4 °F
Light Snow Blowing Snow

Windchill: -19 °F
Humidity: 80%
Dew Point: -1 °F
Wind: 25 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 36 mph

Pressure: 30.35 in (Rising)
Visibility: 4.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2100 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3300 ft
Overcast 4300 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Snow Depth: 21.0 in
Elevation: 984 ft
Rapid Fire Updates:
1322. dsauder
Quoting twhcracker:

all our pipes are busted, (fla panhandle) my husband was out til 10 pm getting it all fixed, left water running at a low stream in every outlet and now this morning froze up again :( then he stepped on a water hose leading to a livestock waterer and the hose snapped like a twig :( i just hope it snows, that would make it exciting again at least. now it is just work work work and two days with no water!


Al Gore could afford to help you fix everything back up. Remember, he says the globe is warming! ! ! Ha! Ha! Ha!
1323. P451
Quoting P451:


I remember telling family over thanksgiving that I felt this was the year that Florida would see snow. I got laughed at. I also told them I felt us in NJ would get at least one big snow storm. Got laughed at again.

Who's laughing now? Not my freezing cousins in Melbourne that's for certain!

Now..everyone is cursing me. As if I caused it. LOL


2 funny!! My forecast I know sounds extreme but it's possible given the lift this next disturbance on Sat. will bring to the area with cold air in place and available moisture anything is possible. I remember what happened to SE TX on Christmas 2004 as a freak snowfall event occured producing a foot of unexpected snow when forecast called for not much of anything.
1325. P451
Quite an interesting day upcoming for the SE that's a given.

Meanwhile, MODIS caught Florida yesterday afternoon. Talk about cold air streaming in!

1326. IKE
Water temp at Panama City....

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 4.1 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.24 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 28.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 50.0 °F
5-day plot - Wind Chill Wind Chill (CHILL): 24.3 °F
Surfing around...I saw some posts mentioning its snowing in some parts of Texas... any truth to that?
Quoting Orcasystems:
Surfing around...I saw some posts mentioning its snowing in some parts of Texas... any truth to that?


I just mentioned an event that happened there in 2004 and how it was similiar to this event upcoming for FL but as far as I now they are not getting snow.
1331. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:
Surfing around...I saw some posts mentioning its snowing in some parts of Texas... any truth to that?


I don't see any listed on any reporting station in Texas.
Quoting IKE:


I don't see any listed on any reporting station in Texas.


I will have to see if I can find it again.. it was in northern texas... showing a webcam... Mall Parking lot... snowing..
Quoting Jeff9641:


I just mentioned an event that happened there in 2004 and how it was similiar to this event upcoming for FL but as far as I now they are not getting snow.


You just need to calm down. Your getting way overly excited. Your dancing is ugly and its not going to help!...LOL
I will be the first to ask without being bashfull....i will take handouts on old cold weather gear....only if you pay for the shipping......LMAO
1335. TheMom
Quoting Jeff9641:
Alright just to clear the air the probability of snow in C FL is real good. I do believe a nice band of light to moderate snow will cut across C FL with this disturbance but once this energy hits the Atlantic waters then a potential for heavy snow to occur from Flagler beach down to Melbourne. I am also sticking with my forecast of a potential for up to 4" of snow in those coastal areas. Futher inland maybe a 1 to 2" event is likely. P451 has a snow map up but it is cut off toward Daytona and it is there south where an area of heavy snow could occur.

Well I personally am demanding the snow cause if I have had to be this cold for this long I want some pretty pretty pictures of snow and icicles on the trees. I just hope people are smnart enough to stay off the roads cause we don't have those fun salt truck thingys. I think for us it all depends on what happens this afternoon if we don't hit the 59-60 range we should be good for snow. *SNOW DAY!!!***
Quoting TheMom:

Well I personally am demanding the snow cause if I have had to be this cold for this long I want some pretty pretty pictures of snow and icicles on the trees. I just hope people are smnart enough to stay off the roads cause we don't have those fun salt truck thingys. I think for us it all depends on what happens this afternoon if we don't hit the 59-60 range we should be good for snow. *SNOW DAY!!!***


Safe to assume a lot of people don't have snow tires either :)
1337. P451
7PM Friday through 7AM Sunday

Quoting IKE:


I don't see any listed on any reporting station in Texas.


Ike, just noticed your new Avatar... who is the pretty lady holding you?
We all was wondering about the GOM not having a CANE in it last year if the heat that was not released would be bad for next year. I can see the heat has been released.
Quoting P451:
7PM Friday through 7AM Sunday


What site is that from?
1341. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ike, just noticed your new Avatar... who is the pretty lady holding you?


My wife...that's my poodle that drowned.
Quoting IKE:


My wife...that's my poodle that drowned.


:( I am so sorry.
Quoting IKE:


My wife...that's my poodle that drowned.

WUmail
Quoting Orcasystems:


Safe to assume a lot of people don't have snow tires either :)



Everybody in south Florida is a transplant from north. They know how to drive in winter!
1345. TheMom
Quoting Orcasystems:


Safe to assume a lot of people don't have snow tires either :)
You know it! Anyone want in on the how many roll overs we will have if we get snow? Heck we used to have that betting pool when I lived in Denver and they at least know how to drive on snow have chains and salt trucks and plows and all that. It is funny though I asked friends in TN what "snow" supplies they were getting and it seems while our normal weather related shopping is for plywood, water, batteries, canned goods and non perishables... Apperantly for snow related survival we need to stock up on milk, bread and Toliet paper.
1346. P451
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

What site is that from?


Link
1347. TheMom
So sorry Ike ....and your wife is HOT!
(why is it girls can say other girls are hot and guys can't say another guy is hot... things to ponder)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Everybody in south Florida is a transplant from north. They know how to drive in winter!


Its going to be one of those days.... its 6:25am and I am wondering how much longer its going to take me to put my other foot in my mouth.
1349. TheMom
LOL Orca I decided to condol (sp?) Ike rather than take that bait.
1351. TheMom
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Possible percipitation amounts!
What amount is the dark blue? and is this for Friday morning or Friday night? Darn I wish I had gotten my big girl camera cleaned...
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its going to be one of those days.... its 6:25am and I am wondering how much longer its going to take me to put my other foot in my mouth.



Hey now! I didn't mean it like that!!! LOL
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Hey now! I didn't mean it like that!!! LOL


ROFL, I didn't mean about you :)
My SA remark to Ike
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL, I didn't mean about you :)
My SA remark to Ike


Your not the only to make SA remarks by mistake My Friend!
1356. IKE
Tupelo, Mississippi (Airport)
Updated: 19 min 11 sec ago
Light Snow
30 °F

Light Snow
Windchill: 25 °F
Humidity: 75%
Dew Point: 23 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the SW
Pressure: 30.16 in (Falling)
Visibility: 4.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft
Overcast 1900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 344 ft
Rapid Fire Updates:
39.7 degrees in St. Petersburg, FL this morning. Lots of Frost all over the place. Especially car roofs.
1355 How does that not reach me as snow?!?!
Well, the front has passed through Houston...

The Woodlands, TX (40 miles NNW of Houston) - dropped 10 degrees & pressure has gone up by 6mb in 90 mins - now 42 degrees
Sugar Land, TX (25 miles SW of Houston) - dropped 5 degrees and pressure has started rising in the last 20 mins.
Quoting presslord:
1355 How does that not reach me as snow?!?!

Did you forget to pay your bribe to mother nature again?
Quoting presslord:
1355 How does that not reach me as snow?!?!


I can't say you won't get some of it. The Low is forecast to move more to the North, that is why it might miss you....

Quoting jeffs713:

Did you forget to pay your bribe to mother nature again?


Mother Nature and I aren't on speaking terms right now...
The Low is just starting to come together......

Quoting presslord:


Mother Nature and I aren't on speaking terms right now...


So we can blame you for this punishment that she is giving us all....Please be nice to her and give her some love!
See that disturbance in the Southwest? that could be the ingredient for the Florida snow this weekend. I still think models are not handling this well enough.
Morning again. Currently Nassau is listed at 64 degrees, but I forgot to mention last time that I got a reading of 56 on my front porch shortly before 7 a.m. It may not have gotten that cold at the airport, but it was chilly in our area.....

Looking at TS's precipitation map, it doesn't look like the mixed stuff is going to drop far enough south to cause any interesting situations today. I guess we shall see how far south it gets overnight.
1368. Patrap
Currently Nassau is listed at 64 degrees

...you make me sick...
Happy New Year all

I just stopped by to see how you all are coping with the deep freeze up North ?

Even down here it is "cold" by our standards. 69F this morning at 7 am and the pool is 71. BRRRR !
SE TX discussion:
Friday:


Models continue to show a disturbance moving across the region. Air mass is forecast to be very dry at the surface with dewpoints falling into the single digits. Models are not showing much if any QPF over the region as moisture is based in the mid levels with anything falling evaporating prior to reaching the surface. However, a look at water vapor images shows an impressive plume of moisture pulling NE from Baja this morning and the fact that the models were too dry this morning does perk my interest. Within such arctic cold domes it does not take much moisture to produce precipitation. For now will continue a cloudy but dry forecast for Friday with temperatures holding near freezing all day. Will watch guidance closely for any signs of better moisture with this system and water vapor/obs for similar indications. Forecast soundings are completely frozen after midnight this evening so anything that falls and reaches the ground on Friday would be snow.

Weekend:

Skies clear Friday evening as massive 1050mb arctic high noses into TX. Winds will weaken and with very low dewpoints widespread teens can be expect both Saturday and Sunday mornings (see lows below). Many locations along and N of I-10 will remain at or below freezing from this evening through midday Sunday or roughly for about 60 hours. Will likely see another freeze Monday morning as the arctic high only slowly gives ground…feel models will be too fast in modifying this air mass given how dry it will be and how large the arctic high is and this may cause some issues as the next system approaches early next week.

Preparations:

Final preparations for this extended cold event should be completed this morning. Remember that anything wet will be frozen by tomorrow morning, so make sure the sprinkler systems are shut off to prevent ice development on surface streets and sidewalks. It is possible that many subdivision “lakes” will develop a layer of ice especially in areas where the surface temperatures does not rise above freezing until Saturday or Sunday along with many cattle stock ponds.


69F this morning at 7 am and the pool is 71

...you, too, make me sick...
Quoting presslord:
69F this morning at 7 am and the pool is 71

...you, too, make me sick...


Well, the hotels would be happy to see you LOL
NWS has snow flurries forecasted for me in Palm Coast, Florida..

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR PROMISES TO BRING ADDITIONAL HARD FREEZES
TO THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A SAINT AUGUSTINE TO OCALA LINE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
Quoting kmanislander:
Happy New Year all

I just stopped by to see how you all are coping with the deep freeze up North ?

Even down here it is "cold" by our standards. 69F this morning at 7 am and the pool is 71. BRRRR !
Hey! Happy New Year to you too. I was wondering how u guys were coping with the chill. Amazing to see under 70 deg. in the Caymans, and forecasts for the 40s for Cuba and Hispaniola tomorrow night!
Quoting presslord:
69F this morning at 7 am and the pool is 71

...you, too, make me sick...


YOu have become as grumpy an old man as Mother Nature keeps bitching at you. Would you please mend your differences so she stops her whinning also.....i can't take this fighting between the 2 of you....your bitchin has now become public knowledge and should have been keep behind closed doors.........ROFLMAO
...anyone with a temp beginning with "5" or higher makes me sick...
1378. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:
Happy New Year all

I just stopped by to see how you all are coping with the deep freeze up North ?

Even down here it is "cold" by our standards. 69F this morning at 7 am and the pool is 71. BRRRR !


Man...talk about rubbing salt into a wound.

Happy New Year KMAN!
Quoting presslord:
Currently Nassau is listed at 64 degrees

...you make me sick...
LOL... We welcome visitors in Nassau....

That 64 is making ME sick.... here I am with multiple layers on and my throat is itching.....
1380. Patrap
I can be in Nassau in 3 days on the boat...Caymans a bit longer...probably worth the trip...
...would be a chilly trip, though...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey! Happy New Year to you too. I was wondering how u guys were coping with the chill. Amazing to see under 70 deg. in the Caymans, and forecasts for the 40s for Cuba and Hispaniola tomorrow night!


This is the "coldest" it has been here this time of year for many years. The overnight lows have been in the mid 60's.

It will be interesting to see how low it goes tonight especially as we are only 19 degrees N of the equator.
I still can't help but believing that North Florida will not get a blanket of Snow....this WaterVapor just seems to show it coming...

good morning all, here is the snow in my backyard

Quoting IKE:


Man...talk about rubbing salt into a wound.

Happy New Year KMAN!


Hi Ike,

Good to see you. If you think it's bad where you are check out London where my son is in University. They are not used to anything much below 35 in winter and England is pretty much paralyzed by several feet of snow. Another Eurostar train broke down this morning in the channel tunnel and had to be rescued.

The jet stream has dipped far South allowing arctic air to penetrate regions that would not normally get it spanning large stretches of the globe. Other areas have temps above normal as the jet looks like a roller coaster in places which creates both anomalous cold and warm temps.

El Nino continues to hang tough so relief not on the horizon yet.
New Blog
seems as if the area is losing alittle intensity as the front moves se