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NHC director Bill Proenza under fire

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:04 PM GMT on June 18, 2007

New National Hurricane Center director Bill Proenza is in hot water for his outspoken criticism of his bosses, according to Miami Herald stories published in the past few days. The acting head of the National Weather Service, Mary Glackin, visited his office in Miami Friday and handed him a three-page letter of reprimand. Proenza shared the contents of the letter with his staff and the media, a pretty gutsy move for a guy just appointed to the job. However, Proenza's boss, Ms. Glackin, is on the job for just a few more months--on September 2, Jack Hayes takes over as boss of the National Weather Service. Proenza can probably get away with his criticism of his bosses while there a major shake up at the top. See the View From the Surface blog this week for further speculations, and for any follow-up articles that might be published on this topic.


Figure 1. The NASA QuikSCAT satellite. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Replacement for the aging QuikSCAT satellite?
Proenza has been particularly outspoken in his desire to see a replacement for the aging QuikSCAT satellite, which measures surface winds over remote ocean areas, and has been credited with improving 72-hour hurricane track forecasts by 16%. His comments may be having an effect. On May 24, the improved Hurricane Tracking and Forecasting Act of 2007 (Senate Bill S. 1509) was introduced before the Senate. The bill, introduced by Sen. Landrieu, D-LA, and co-sponsored by John Kerry and Florida's two senators, asks for $375 million to build a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite. Bravo to Mr. Proenza for speaking out on this important issue! Some excepts from the bill:

(5) The QuikSCAT satellite was built in just 12 months and was launched with a 3-year design life, but continues to perform per specifications, with its backup transmitter, as it enters into its 8th year--5 years past its projected lifespan.

(6) The QuikSCAT satellite provides daily coverage of 90 percent of the world's oceans, and its data has been a vital contribution to National Weather Service forecasts and warnings over water since 2000.

(7) Despite its continuing performance, the QuikSCAT satellite is well beyond its expected design life and a replacement is urgently needed because, according to the National Hurricane Center, without the QuikSCAT satellite--

(A) hurricane forecasting would be 16 percent less accurate 72 hours before hurricane landfall and 10 percent less accurate 48 hours before hurricane landfall resulting in--

(i) with a 16 percent loss of accuracy at 72 hours before landfall, the area expected to be under hurricane danger would rise from 197 miles to 228 miles on average; and

(ii) with a 10 percent loss of accuracy at 48 hours before landfall, the area expected to be under hurricane danger would rise from 136 miles to 150 miles on average; and

(B) greater inaccuracy of this type would lead to more `false alarm' evacuations along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast and decrease the possibility of impacted populations sufficiently heeding mandatory evacuations.


The bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and awaits consideration there. The Chair of that committee is Senator Inouye from hurricane-prone Hawaii, so the bill has a decent chance of making it out of committee to the Senate floor. If your senator is on the committee, please write them to let them know what you think about the bill:

Democrats:
Chairman Daniel K. Inouye (HI)
John D. Rockefeller, IV (WV)
John F. Kerry (MA)
Byron L. Dorgan (ND)
Barbara Boxer (CA)
Bill Nelson (FL)
Maria Cantwell (WA)
Frank R. Lautenberg (NJ)
Mark Pryor (AR)
Thomas Carper (DE)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Amy Klobuchar (MN)

Republicans:
Vice Chairman Ted Stevens (AK)
John McCain (AZ)
Trent Lott (MS)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX)
Olympia J. Snowe (ME)
Gordon H. Smith (OR)
John Ensign (NV)
John E. Sununu (NH)
Jim DeMint (SC)
David Vitter (LA)
John Thune (SD)

There is no activity in the tropical Atlantic worth mentioning, and none of the computer models are forecasting any development over the coming week. I'll have a new blog on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. Inyo
Hey FearRaithneach, I am visiting Ireland in early July! I am actually hoping to experience at least a little rain as we are in a drought and haven't seen any measurable rain since April. I'm really looking forward to the trip either way.

As for La Nina, my own (non-scientific) prediction is that it is ending, before it even got started. ENSO appears to be in a period of much quicker than average fluxuations between positive and negative phases... and doesn't appear to have had much effect on weather patterns where I live (in southern California, where El Nino generally means wet conditions, the last El Nino was extreme drought and the last La Nina was slightly above average rainfall here).

I say watch the E-pac, with these warming temperatures there may be a more active season than expected. However, the chance of remnants/rainfall reaching California are quite small until/unless that cold pool off our coast goas away.
There is a little shear in the GOM but that won't stop anything from developing.Plus it looks like we have a very impressive stom looming off the coast of LA,MI,AL,and W FL.Could this develop?

GOM
Hey mel, SW, mel, rob, inyo, 23S

That link SW posted is pretty nice for comparing Enso years.
Not real likely tf, although the front is going to stall out at some point.
Goes IR loop GOM Link
Hello StormJunkie
Well, you can think whatever; I noticed that cooling has resumed in the Pacific now (the warming water in the NE Pacific is meaningless in this regard as only the equator is counted):





Keep in mind that the CPC's figures only go through June 13th. I also believe that the change in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from El Nino (negative) to La Nina (positive) is extremely significant as well; the "cooling" over the last few months actually occurred with a negative SOI, suggesting that it was not ever really a developing La Nina (the SOI is one of the biggest indicators of ENSO conditions). Australia's BOM thinks the same as well:

Positive index points to break in the weather
THE end of the drought may be in sight.
The key weather indicator used by climatologists has passed into positive territory for the first time in years.

The movement in the Southern Oscillation Index is the strongest indication that a rain-producing La Nina weather event might replace the El Nino blamed for the drought.

It was revealed yesterday that the index had its strongest reading in more than a year on Friday, as flooding gripped the New South Wales Hunter Valley region.

If the index, which is a calculation of the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, is above zero then it indicates Australia's El Nino is weakening.

But the drought will only be properly broken by flooding associated with the rain-producing La Nina weather phenomenon, which itself is looking more likely.

The weather bureau said last week's rainfall across southern Queensland was a good sign a La Nina could form over winter.


I find this line strange:

If the index, which is a calculation of the monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, is above zero then it indicates Australia's El Nino is weakening

Of course, they are referring to the SOI, not the SSTs (and the atmospheric signal is more important, the SSTs are just one of the results of it). Also, by winter they mean the Southern Hemisphere winter.
GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin
Link
It has a whole lot of convection.
I'd give it a 45% chance of it developing.
Is it pouring or poring? or storming or stoming?
Good post STL
515. PBG00
hey Jp..I'm with ya! It is only June!!!Even in 2005 we only had two storms in June. Even if it is not a blockbuster season..I just don't see it be a total bust. If we have a cape verde season The east coast better watch out. And as has been said numerous times on this blog..it only takes one monster for it to be a devastating season for someone! Why is everyone writing this season off before it has even begun?
on jupiter, rain falls twice as fast and thunder travels 4x faster than on earth. convection clouds are 30 miles high. what keeps the "big red spot" going? its not fueled by water
Pat, the storm just arrived. I was outside, too dark to take pictures or video. The winds were coming from due south. The storm clouds were moving in from the NE. When the winds changed direction, and the rain started I came inside. The wind cooled things off very quickly. I could see the lightening way off in the distance with very low rumbles of thunder. Nothing was boiling, thankfully, just rushing past. The temps dropped from about 90 to 72 in less than 5minutes.
paula
I don't see why the GOM storm can't develop.It has a lot of convection,SST's are very warm in the gulf,there is little shear,and like y'all said,it'll stall out over the GOM and give it time to develop.Why can't it develop when it has the right "ingredients" for it to develop?
So it could develop?
Thanks JFLorida.I know this is too early to ask but could that storm become an east coast hurricane?
Posted By: tropicfreak at 1:31 AM GMT on June 20, 2007.

I don't see why the GOM storm can't develop.It has a lot of convection,SST's are very warm in the gulf,there is little shear,and like y'all said,it'll stall out over the GOM and give it time to develop.Why can't it develop when it has the right "ingredients" for it to develop?


Tropic anything is possible, but is it probable? Let's first see if the convection holds together overnight once it gets over the GOM...
Wow OK is boiling!

Ok maybe i should wait til tomorrow.LOL Maybe i should hold my patience.
good answer jp
an east coast hurricane?

Donno. Not sure it will have the time/conditions - Im just happy for a surface low to watch!
Not too sure about 45% for that blob tf, and I would only give the front about a 20% chance of becoming somewhat tropical before exiting stage right.

77, first you attack and then you continue to state a theory with no data. I have no clue if it will be hyper active or slower then '06, but right now a La Nina or even neutral would tend to make it more active then last year. Try Looking At The Most Recent Data as you say.

So, you're prediction of a non active season is just as silly as someone predicting 28 storms for the 05 season...

As for the professional mets...There have been quite a few times where myself or others have pointed out facts that were overlooked by the "pros"

Ok, I am out. As usually it is wait and see mode, and that is what I will do. Quit the stupid bickering over how active the season may or may not be. Take a page from STL's play book and post some data and good analysis and let's debate instead of just trying to create turmoil 77.
... What about the typhoons that hit the Phillipines ... they exploded as soon as they hit that very warm water surrounding the islands ... the GOM can do the same to Hurricanes

In 6 hours, Durian intensified from 90 kt 1-minute sustained winds to 125 kt winds.
Link


Rain !!!! Were under a drought too, in N.C.Not as big in Georgia though.But south-western N.C has a sever drought.
jp, I think he is basing it on two forecasts. Remember the one 23 hyped for so long that said no US landfalls...
hey sj
StormChaser77,
Do you live in a Hurricane Prone area?
I wonder if this will affect the water temps eventually?

Our Oceans are Turning Into Plastic

May 29, 2007

A plastic stew thats twice the size of Texas is swirling through the Pacific Ocean. Scientists have dubbed the mass of plastic bags, jugs, bottles, nets and other plastic junk the Eastern Garbage Patch, and its volume is growing at an alarming pace.

The plastic pollution is now inevitably entering the food chain, with the most obvious casualties seabirds and other marine animals who ingest the various junk bottle caps, cigarette lighters and more, or become entangled or strangled by plastic bands and bags. The plastic causes more than 1 million seabirds, 100,000 marine mammals, and even more fish to die in the North Pacific alone every year.

Disturbing as those statistics may sound, the following finding is even more chilling: When the researchers tested the ocean water, they found that it contained miniscule pieces of plastic, and, by weight, actually contained six times as much plastic as plankton.

Of course, its not just marine animals that are subject to this plastic burden. People, too, are ingesting plastics every day, and being exposed to a potentially deadly mix of plastic chemicals and additives, including:

* Cancer-causing PFOAs
* PBDEs, which cause reproductive problems
* The reproductive toxins, phthalates
* BPA, which disrupts the endocrine system by mimicking the female hormone estrogen

What is the result of mankind breathing, eating, drinking and absorbing all of this plastic? Obesity, declining fertility rates and other reproductive problems, cancer and more.

If youre still looking for a reason to adopt a more natural, healthy lifestyle, this one is as good as any. Avoid these dangerous plastic chemicals in your life as much as possible by:

* Storing your food in glass, not plastic
* Avoiding processed foods (which are stored in bags with chemicals)
* Giving up on plastic shopping bags
* Not drinking bottled water

Best Life Magazine February 20, 2007

Link
Good to see ya Buhdog. How ya been?

.
.
.
Alright y'all I am really off to bed. Have to be up early.

Everyone have a great night, and y'all please keep our fire fighters and there friends and families in your mind.

Thanks. Night ☺
rain oh said rain give me some or i will give you 30ft of vary wet snow if you dont give me some rain
...Not to mention the fact that on NOAA's website, the top story begins with the words, " With an active Atlantic hurricane season expected for 2007...". Must we disagree with the experts?
Looks like we could have a busy night here in Wichita chessrascal!

Taz - you can have some of our rain!
Link

I see a semi circle, I bet there is strong winds.
" and, by weight, actually contained six times as much plastic as plankton."

That little green guy on Spongebob won't be happy when he hears about this!
Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:39 AM GMT on June 20, 2007.
I do think we will a season with 10-13 named systems but the all important issue is whether there going to impact land.I do think steering currents right now are on our side with front after front coming down but will it continue in the coming months is something that is unknown.

Keep in mind 1992 had only 7 named systems and turned to be one of the worst hurricanes seasons in U.S. history.Adrian

(Numbers predicted are not important)


Great Point Adrian! After being through Andrew I don't recall looking back at the season of 1992 and say geez you know it was not an active season, we had 7 systems, but I lost my roof and home but it was only one Cat 5 hurricane, so its all good. Look at strength and quality not numbers, anyone who went through Andrew would feel that way.
i will say this one and one time olny


can we STOP fighting overe if it going to be a active Atlantic hurricane season or not Please we been fighting overe this for 3 to 4 days now and this is geting vary old now so could we this STOP and move too some in new Please thank you


evere time i come on her you all are fighting about if this will be active Atlantic hurricane season or not whats this drop it and what and see it may be or it may not be so right now it a wait and see right now so what drop this Please



Back to the NHC: Ironically theres something wrong with the NHC sat page now. Some of the stills/loops are old. Like the GOM. Watch the timestamps if you look at them.
Theres nothing here to argue over. Unless you can be technical and post links/data you can finish arguing this on your own blogs. Its turned into just the usual negative offensive disaster and its exactly back where it started, just reinforcing personal differences, except for the few who actually posted data/facts to support their arguments.
Hey StormW

Thanks for the great Blog ... I just posted a comment
i got it jp are you with me on my post?
good thanks JP
Greetings TAZ, JP.
and if you want to fight about if it going to be a active Atlantic hurricane season or not do it in your own blog not on the main blog i had it comeing on her evere night of the week and see you all fighting about if it going to be a active Atlantic hurricane season or not take it to your own blogs form this point on
hello pottery2
Will be interesting to see what happens with this system coming off GA into the Gulf tomorrow. Were they predicting it might emerge over the Atlantic or am I mistaken?
Patrap must be inundated right now...
Hey, how's it going?
Going good, cajun, hows the weather ?
Wet
Any chance this front could spin up a low pressure area in the GoM?
loads of lightning
Taz, we have had a typical June month here, 6.5 inches of rain so far. But now the SAL is blowing in and acting like a dry sponge . Forcing all the weather south in the ITCZ to around 6 deg. n.
If that keeps up, we will not have a lot of Atlantic activity.
jphurricane2006

It's one nasty storm and it's pounding OK right now.
The SAL will taper off soon enough. Just because there is a SAL outbreak in June doesn't mean anything. Weather changes. Not like tropical waves really move that far north in June anyway...
Dont stand under any trees cajun. LOL
Looks severe from where I sit !
pottery2 ok
pottery2,

I wish I could donate some of this rain to Lake Okeechobee
I hear you , JP and Kori. But I'm not seeing a reason for the dry off Africa to go away too soon. I may be mistaken, but the Sahara and the areas west of it are still dry ?
Yo, Taz!

good night all

Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 9:40 PM CDT on June 19, 2007


... Significant weather advisory...

This significant weather advisory is for Oklahoma County.

An area of strong thunderstorms was located over eastern Kingfisher
County... moving southeast at 15 mph. A gust front that was
spreading out ahead of the thunderstorms will be moving into
northwest Oklahoma County... including portions of Oklahoma City and
Edmond. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible across northwest
Oklahoma County.


good night : cajunkid
Funny, all the bickering at the slowest time of the year, climatologically speaking, and about a pattern that usually doesn't anchor until the middle of July. Speculations can be made but, truth be told, we won't know where the storms will go until they happen. Yes there are persistent troughs on the east coast right now but, there is also persistent high pressure behind it. More lately, the east coast is dominated by troughs but, a 3 week trend is hardly anything to hang your hat on. Just as easily as it came, it can go.
patrap must have lost power or something...........
Why can't it develop when it has the right "ingredients" for it to develop?

Because they don't want it to. Ever since 2005, people are scared to death of a tropical cyclone. Every tropical cyclone threat should be taken "serious", but not every season will be 2005, and NOT every season will be like 2006 either. So there has been some cooling of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic? Big whoop. Who cares.

Conditions CHANGE over time. They don't stay the same. SSTs will warm back up, give them a chance. Not everything is going to be the way WE want it to be with weather. Weather changes, and WE don't control it whatsoever. So June has been inactive, huh? Hardly. Barry developed on June 1, and Chantal half developed with 93L and 94L. Andrea formed in early May. Need I say more?

It could turn out inactive, it could turn out active. STOP making speculations based on WISHCASTING. That doesn't, and won't work with weather. That's all I have to say. June's always inactive anyway, who cares?
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:52 PM EDT on June 19, 2007.
shear has decreased pretty dramatically over all of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf as a whole in just the past few days

and the ITCZ very rarely stays that far south, it is where it is normally supposed to be for June, then moves further north as the season moves on

Large area of dust approaching the Antillies JP! It actually stretches halfway into Africa.
Stormchaser I dont get wat u are saying as this year is auctually a head of 2005...Bret did not form until june 28 and...of course this is a period of inactivity but remember the 20 ish days between arlene and bret 2 yrs a go...not saying that this will be like 05...or it might who knows...over all june is quiet month anyway...also if the NHC did not think andrea should be named they would not have seen it.
" they would not have named it"
77...check this map from '05...same date:

OK jp. So you see the SAL dissipating in a while ?
I see a trough right off the East coast...and a trough in the SE Carribean.Not a wave,a trough,if you'll notice.Things change,and this time of year is almost always this inactive.
Exactly, WBK. That's what people fail to realize. Troughs hanging around for 3 weeks is hardly something to put your hope in. AND NEED I REITERATE WHAT I SAID BEFORE?

Chris and Ernesto tracks, IF (IF being keyword) this year were to be like 2006 with troughing, are STILL possible. You can't just turn your eyes off of a season that has BARELY started. It's not even July yet... Sheesh. And most July's only have 1-2 storms anyway...
Taz I understand what you are saying about taking it to blogs, it's just people that wishcast are beginning to get on my nerves. I'm not directing this toward anyone, since half the time, I barely pay attention to someone's name unless he/she posts right above me. I still love to make peace with everyone here. The community is good, and I'll keep coming back to it.
StormChaser77 STOP PLEASE
Hey Kris, did you change the date on that image, lol? It looks awfully similar to this year, almost exact if you were to compare it to tomorrow or thursday.
hello weatherboykris
Posted By: weatherboykris at 3:12 AM GMT on June 20, 2007.

That is actually a interesting pic. We also have disturbed weather in the SW gulf, over Florida and in the Windwards. (look at the shear in the NW gulf) it looks like last weekend a lot.

Check out the flow into the pacific and look at the flow near Campeche - its almost identical.
this to went you all no now this blog sould be about Bill Proenza not fighting overe active Atlantic hurricane season or not most of the blog page or full with it for the past few nights
LOL guys,no I didn't doctor it,you can find images for the past ten years from plymouth weather's website...along with every single other bit of weather data in the past decade for any region.Great site.
I have no intention to start a fight with this statement, but I would like someone to at least give me a COMMENT on this one:

People put too much faith in both history and the previous hurricane season, when they make their predictions for the current season. 2006 was inactive, and troughing took place, I won't deny that. El Nio and the SAL outbreak played a huge part in the season. A lot of things tried to develop, but didn't. However, SAL hasn't even been PROVEN yet to have an affect on Atlantic hurricanes. Granted, it probably DOES, but it hasn't been proven yet. And just because one dust outbreak occurs sporadically, doesn't really mean anything. Conditions change, as I always say. JUST because 2006 was inactive and had "troughing" doesn't mean 2007 will do the same. Plain and simple, just because there are troughs hanging around for June doesn't mean 2006 is in store for 2007. That is purely wishcasting. Long-range forecasts are hard to do anyway, and we have little skill in that field. Wait and see what happens in 2007 is all we can really say. Sure, current conditions can give us a CLUE about what is happening or what may happen this hurricane season, but truthfully, we don't know what's in store, and we know that.

As for reliance on history, you pretty much do have to use that for your forecasts. However, in each year, conditions for tropical cyclone formation change, so history is rather flawed too. 1968 was predicted to start early and indeed did with 3 storms (2 hurricanes) in the month of June alone. However, another storm did not occur until August 10. There were also no major hurricanes that year at all.

You should use current data, as well as model cosensus, your OWN experience (people never use that). Don't rely on long-range forecasts all that much, since they are easily flawed.

Again, PLEASE leave me a comment on this. I want to know what you guys think.
(sigh) Taz---a debate over Atlantic hurricane activity is exactly this blog's purpose.Calm down,it isn't your job to police the blogs.
Um,nice koritheman.
: weatherboykris hows the big H? has it set up shop
I agree 100%
Taz,no offense,but stop asking me that.I will never,with confidence, be able to say "yes".
Does Jack Hayes Support Quikscat?
not my job??? then oh job is it then??? if you are going to say aron he not on and he dos not have time to police the blogs
Nice image, Whisperer. Note how the dust/dry air has pushed the ITCZ south. Not unusual, and totally expected. I would suggest that the Atl. trop. waves are more and more dependant on Sahel and central African rainfall, for their survival over the Atlantic.
there we go whats talk about Quikscat ok that waht we sould have been talking about in the 1st time
stormchaser77 SHUT UP


dont talk to JP like that i like JP vary march
No,he doesn't have time Taz.IMO,because he has no time,he should stop waiting months or years for trolls and troublemakers(not necessarily 77,he has,for the most part,just stated his weather opinions.You know who I'm talking about)to break the TOS,and just ban them.He would be able to cease having to delete massive amounts of comments and writing emails asking these people to knock it off.Makes perfect sense,he'll have tons of more time.That's all I'm saying about that.
Korithe,in response to your email...not answering the first two questions,no offense...and as for the others,I see neutral ENSO and a 2004-like season.
i wish i new what aron been up too
Where'd everyone go?
Quikscat I feel is important for the Cape Verde systems since we can't fly out in the CATL and have no buoys out there and few ships. Losing it will make it tougher to forecast what is coming towards the West. Any study on how the Quickscat compares to a HH readings? Are they close +/- a few knots?
do not respond to personal insults anymore. Everyone has been warned. I think they will be taken care of. You should fix them yourselves though. I personally don't take sides and I think everyone should consider themselves "blog policemen"
It underestimates winds in strong systems,sporteguy.
Kori. I have been saying for a long time that our reliance on too much historical data is hurting the art of Forecasting. Because we have never been here before. That said, until we can access more meaningful, recent and current data, we have to take hist. data into primary account. Thats why we need more research all round. Especially on things like SAL etc which are recent phenomena, and which we dont have even historical data for.

I dissagree that until something is " proven " that we cant give it serious consideration.
Weatherboy,
yeah I've heard that before is a great underestimate though just wondering the average error it has?
It's large,but I don't have specifics.
Korithe,in response to your email...not answering the first two questions,no offense...

Alright, no problem. I don't mind. I understand perfectly. :)

and as for the others,I see neutral ENSO and a 2004-like season.

Sort of like what I see, WBK.

BTW, wouldn't it have been easier to just mail me back? >_>
I do give the SAL serious consideration pottery, but I don't think it is having as big an effect on Atlantic hurricanes as everyone thinks that it is.
ok, Weatherboy thats ok, so if a system is in the CATL does the NHC use satelite images and the Dvorak method to get approx wind speed and any ships if say we lose Quikscat?
I agree completely pottery, that is why I posted the image. Dust is very common this time of year and very strong might I add. Haze should start to set on your parts very soon, it looks to make it into the caribbean!
Yes their are some incredible storms out there tonight. Reports
Dont stand under any trees cajun. LOL
Looks severe from where I sit !
Taz, we have had a typical June month here, 6.5 inches of rain so far. But now the SAL is blowing in and acting like a dry sponge . Forcing all the weather south in the ITCZ to around 6 deg. n.
If that keeps up, we will not have a lot of Atlantic activity.
Going good, cajun, hows the weather ?
sporteguy,if we lose Quikscat soon,and a replacement really won't come until 2016,then I think they'll speed up their buoy system expansion program.They added six new buoys so far this year in the basin,and they'll be helpful.But,yeah,mainly Visible images and Dvorak.
I don't think the dust itself hurts a 'cane,just the dry air that comes with it.
Hi, Koritheman!

What I have seen over the years is that the climatology is quite reliable. I agree that the long range forecasts have limited skill. Predicting hurricanes, though, is not particularly interesting to me.

What I find most interesting to watch are the almosts, might have beens and never were's. Once a hurricane cranks up, it tends to look like just another hurricane to me. We can watch those in the Pacific or Indian Ocean, too. With the humongous amount of data available nowadays (feel the buoy, be the buoy--and QuikScat is just freaking wild) in the Atlantic, we can glimpse the subtleties, and those subtle things are more apparent with the weaker systems.

The way people react to hurricanes is also fascinating, both on this forum and in the streets. The panic that shut down Houston two days before Rita made landfall was amazing.
Whoa indeed ! This happened last night as well. I dont know why or how. Annoying.........
651. FLBoy
SAL mostly has a detrimental effect on the coral reefs. You start knocking off the coral your SST's will lower also.
But yeah....usually accompanied with dry air.
i sure hope my silliness earlier today did not start the bickering. Please accept my apology if it was the start. I was just being silly, the data in the post about a non-eventfull season just struck me that way. I am prepared as can be, except need to get more bottled water. Another saltwater intrusion into my town's water system would not be welcome.(rita)

Korithe is right, we do need to use our own experience with past storms along with the current data and come to our own conclusions. Wishcasting should not be happening, at all, at least not here. Of course, it can be comic relief on a rare occasion.
Now, seriously, I am not making predictions in any way shape or form. The best path for me to take at this time is a wait and see, the season is just too young.
JP I will take my long walks on a beach, go fishing and garden, while keeping a close eye on the weather. :) If an impromtu vacation is called for? I'll be ready.
paula
653. Alec
sigh......Well, at least we can get some rain.
yawn good night


we need a cat 4 hurricane so this blog would be a made house so it some in to talk about and no one is fighting if you no what i am trying to say
G'nite 77.I'm out too guys.Tomorrow my science based apocolyptic visions will be about asteroids,so I'll need some rest.Goodnight.
i am with you pot this is Annoying
658. FLBoy
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SE GA/NE FL ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT OVER S GA. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
is the buoy expansion a definte or is a high price tag too?
It's already occuring,sporteguy
I just think they'll speed it up.
Good question sporteguy03.

My guess is that the cost is about the same (just a wild ass guess) but that the people needed to deploy buoys would be more readily available than the people needed to launch satellites.

I see the satellite competing for scarcer resources. Hence, 2016.
663. FLBoy
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

NEXT SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMATION ACROSS
NORTHERN PENINSULA SUGGESTS HIGH RAINFALL PROSPECTS FOR THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS.


Bring it please.
Oy the buoys! Theres too many broken buoys out there now too. If a storm comes up its going to be embarrassing.
Good news FLBoy.
667. FLBoy
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL


GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING SOMEWHAT AS
TO WHAT TO DO WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS SOME OF THE MODELS...00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN AND 12Z GFS MOVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE 00Z/06Z GFS...LAST
FEW NAM RUNS...AND 00Z UKMET DROP THE SYSTEM OVER OR NEAR THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO/CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND DEVELOP A SFC LOW IN THIS
VICINITY. THE NEW/12Z GFS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IS FASTER AND
MORE NORTHERLY WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN ALL OF THE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS
THE LAST FEW DAYS...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM TRACKS...IT`S
REASONABLE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH LIKE FEATURE WILL PASS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA VERY SLOWLY LATER THIS WEEK/THIS WEEKEND
WITH GENERAL WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
I see the satellite competing for scarcer resources. Hence, 2016.

Yet tens of billions can be spent on the international space station.Still,I suppose having a floating apartment that serves...no purpose,is more important than hurricane forecasts.
Kris, The dust is only realy a manifestation of dry air. And believe me its a pain in the ass. Its corrosive to aluminum. It wears out things like windshield wipers in a few weeks, leaving the windshield nicely matted forever. it gets into everything. And it raises the temp and the humidity alot.
It also, because it is DRY, acts like a million cubic yards of silica gel in the atmosphere.Miosture cant survive in it.
Reason I ask is will the gov't say geez we don't need all these buoys since we only get x number of storms per year is it worth the cost? I can see the gov't trying cut other weather funds too.
672. FLBoy
I'm on board with the Canadian.....drop the trough!
one of the models was even predicting what looked like 2 storms earlier, one in the Atl and one in the gulf.
674. FLBoy
Still,I suppose having a floating apartment that serves...no purpose,is more important than hurricane forecasts.

You're almost there!
Busted buoys ... and they wanted to spend how much money on a bogus anniversary celebration?

Notice the striking similarity.

Georges.

Katrina.
Is that surface low tropical or non-tropical?
Posted By: bappit at 4:07 AM GMT on June 20, 2007.

Busted buoys ... and they wanted to spend how much money on a bogus anniversary celebration?


Bill says 4 million,they say 1.5,either way,too much.
679. FLBoy
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL


MODELS CONTINUING TO DRAG AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP..
Discussing money leads directly to non-weather related issues, so I'll bite my tongue.

Ow! Oooh ... that smarts!
hybrid,it appears the low will be sporteguy.Could get a name,but I doubt it.sullivan,notice Georges large eye and katrina's samller inner core;that's why Georges only gradually strengthened and why katrina rapidly intensified.
Sullivanweather, neat comparison.

Very similar until you notice how much brighter the cloud tops are with Katrina. Those are cold mo's.
684. FLBoy
A trough of slightly lower pressure cruising out of GA. We'll see how far that makes it south into the state. No, this is not a tropical low!!
According to the 500 to 1000 MB Thickness (Pressures) the deep digging trough this weekend may play a part in kicking out the troughs on the east coast and C-ATL. Look at the Bermuda/Azores high at the end of the run, may be another switch is about to be flipped.
687. FLBoy
Deep digging trough??

Cane...
689. FLBoy
Oh, I see ......we start weather and everyone has business.....LOL!
Bappit, different satellite models, different resoultion.

Georges 9/25/98 11am

N W Pressure Wind (kts)
24.6 82.4 975 90

Katrina 8/26/05 1130am

N W Pressure Wind (kts)
25.1 82.2 971 85
Hi everybody I am new here
694. FLBoy
OK Cane....I see. But it's not really that strong. It may be right now....but it won't be.
695. FLBoy
weatherman99....Welcome! What can you offer?
What is that blob over South Anerica?
Is there any development possible there?
Also is there any development possible with that area in the Gulf of Mexico?
weatherman99 - I am waiting on the new model runs to come up. I don't know there is so much going on now. There is a lot of interaction with strong upper level systems that is confusing .
What time do the models come out ?
It seems like they are done compiling and posted by 2 am. Ill put the links up to the ones I look at when I post of course.
What do you think on that blob in South America?
Do you think there will be anymore Tropical Stroms this month ?
The panama area? Donno its a hot spot in a few was but most of that stuff is heading into the pacific I thought. Im not following that area very closely, but we probably should be.

---

Low near panama city (us) still firing.

Buoy (not so low)


-john-
Yeah the area near Panama is what I am talking about I thought it was goning in to the Caribean but now it lokks like the Eastern Pacific will be in for it.
What is your name
Horribly soaking thunderstorm complex in Oklahoma/Texas tonight, dewpoint are in the mid 70's the south of this convection, rain rates or 2 to 3 inches per hour.

These storms are producing rainfall intensities WELL above climo and could cause life threating flooding when added to the very very saturated ground.


Looks like this will be the last light of this across this flood stricken area fr a while as high pressure builds in and takes control into next week, at least some good news there.
Ugh... flooding is the worst killer next to lightning.
JFLORIDA we should start our own forecasting team .
712. FLBoy
Looks like this will be the last light of this across this flood stricken area fr a while as high pressure builds in and takes control into next week, at least some good news there.

what the hell are you trying to say Jed? Please at least...."Try" and spell something correctly!
JFLORIDA are the models out yet ?
715. FLBoy
Models....have fun.
FLBOY we should start our own Tropics Forecast team whata you say
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 am EDT Wed Jun 20 2007

Upper level anticyclonic flow
covers the Gulf of Mexico west of 90w. A cyclonic circulation
center is developing near 27n88w.
719. FLBoy
My God! A surface low in the NE Gulf! Wait! Let me buy some oil futures.
Surprisingly this developing low is showing up very well tonight on the Rainbow Loop.







The low center is to the SE of the mouth of the Mississippi, south of Biloxi, MS.
721. FLBoy
Where?
722. FLBoy
that's not where it is.
Quite the thunderstorm.

f
724. FLBoy
27n88w.
725. FLBoy

could that low develope or is sheer to high and if it does where will it go thanks
I want to see if it is still there in six hours, and if it continues to head south into the GOM...
728. FLBoy
It ain't anything.
729. FLBoy
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
240 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2007


FOR TODAY...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH GEORGIA WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS WILL CARRY
THE ONGOING STORMS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NATURE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
AREA AS SURFACE HEATING GOES TO WORK. AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL
GOES...500MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND -6 TO -7...
AND SHEAR IS VERY LIMITED. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT FEEL SEVERE IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE NATURE
COAST WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS...WITH COVERAGE AGAIN LOWEST ALONG
THE COAST.
d

Surrounded by high sheer.
That's why I usually have a 12 hour rule before getting excited about anything... But, tonight was slow and NWS mentioned it in the tropical discussion page....
The agreement is somewhat not really happening all that much in the short term model forecasts. Not day to day and not between different models. There is some on an Atlantic low forming Friday I guess, but not much else.

Ill wait and see what the pros say then what happens.

GetReal thats from this morning. Ironic that the NHC after giving praise of the satellite system cant even get the right pictures out.
733. FLBoy
That's it for the local NWS guys! there is no tropical thing here!
734. FLBoy
Let's run the Bamm's! LOL!
Goodnight everyone!!! I'll check back in much later this morning!
FLBOY do you think there is going to be any tropicla systems this week ?
737. FLBoy
do you think there is going to be any tropicla systems this week ?

NO!
Rapidly falling pressure here in Jacksonville, FL right now...currently at 1009 millibars and has been falling all through the night...as storms approach for tomorrow.
739. FLBoy
I usually stay around 1009 down here this time of year. How rapidly is that falling?
740. FLBoy
I usually stay around 1009 here this time of year....I can't consider that reading a rapid drop!
Everything is a mess in the gulf region. The front is reforming down south and the models dont match up. Half the buoys dont work and the wrong sat pictures are posted on the NHC site. The synopsis is lagging far behind actual events. The models dont seem to agree even out a few hours.

and Java is also acting strange on my comp after the last Microsoft update.
BUT At least there is a consistent and atypical drop in pressure in the Atlantic.


Station 41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC


yea I will just wait and see.
743. FLBoy
Well JF...relax. Nothing is happening.
Radars and Sat shots are all screwey these days.
744. FLBoy
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR BAYLOR...ARCHER...CLAY...WICHITA...TILLMAN AND COTTON COUNTIES...

AT 228 AM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS...ALONG WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT IN
PROGRESS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. MEASURED WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 94 MPH WERE RECEIVED FROM THE
WICHITA FALLS AREA. WIDESPREAD 60 TO 70 MPH REPORTS CONTINUE TO COME
IN.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BURKBURNETT AND WICHITA FALLS.
745. FLBoy
Whoo....there's some winds.
746. FLBoy

747. FLBoy
That looks like a really large wedge tornado going there.
I was just reading a newspaper article form Ohio. Lots of wires down; electric and communication. I do not think we are getting an accurate picture of the damage yet.

It could be bad.
749. FLBoy
This is looking real bad for Wichita Falls tonight. They get hit regularly but this is not good.
750. FLBoy
Three or four meso's there now.....God help those people.
Hey guys there are three areas of rotaion in Oklahoma I will post an image soon
752. FLBoy
Wichita Falls and just north in OK are getting whacked....don't need any other anything right now.
I guess that is a derecho event. Dallas Fort Worth is directly in line with Wichita Falls in the direction of propagation. I hope they know what is coming. It will get there in less than an hour.
754. FLBoy
It's a bow-echo line....that's it!
yea you can really see it in the loop
756. FLBoy
A nasty MCS! This is real bad straight line winds.....!
757. FLBoy

758. FLBoy
I'm not sure how hard the "Cap" is over Houston!

BUT IF I LIVED THERE I WOULD BE READING THIS!!
760. FLBoy
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
244 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

TXZ178-179-199-200-213-200945-
SAN JACINTO-POLK-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-HARRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE
244 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR
LAKE LIVINGSTON AREA SOUTH INTO EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY. THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR THE BORDER OF
HARRIS...MONTGOMERY AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS
Its bad. real Bad. I wouldn't want to be in a high building with big windows when this hits.

762. FLBoy
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT

* AT 319 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM BRIDGEPORT TO MINERAL WELLS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
COOL BY 325 AM
SPRINGTOWN BY 330 AM
WEATHERFORD AND RENO BY 340 AM
WILLOW PARK AND HUDSON OAKS BY 345 AM
ANNETTA BY 350 AM
ALEDO BY 355 AM
763. FLBoy
M
None of the TV news stations are even running warnings.
765. FLBoy

766. FLBoy
Look! Weather forecasters run their turf.....but that bow is 90mph winds! Hard to imagine no excitement!
768. FLBoy
Doesn't matter......People do not care....so neither do I!
Seeya!
I care. :)

Pretty nasty looking bow echo, if I do say so myself. Easily gonna get 60+ mph winds with that. Hurricane-force winds are not impossible, either. An isolated tornado may spin up at the leading edge of the bow too, but damaging winds, as always, is the main threat with this.
Morning y'all. Looks like some real rough weather in Tx.

Hey FLB, what such negativity?
Good test for the 'heat island' theory. Highrises are blessed.
Here's a link for the cmc model forecast sea level pressure in 72 hours. The GFS and nogaps also pick up on this area of low pressure. Link
Can anyone find me a good satellite photo of Kileen? And when to expect that dastardly band of weather... My daughter in law and granddaughter are there (sleeping still I'm sure...my son is away!) and I want to warn her of what's coming.
Thanks.
Never mind...found something. Just panicked a little when I saw that nasty band headed straight for them!!! Yuck. They have had so much rain.
Man I can't believe forecasting past few weeks, they flip flop just like the models, they also seem to love when the models forecast drier air, they significantly lowered rain chances for next week just because ONE model run from the GFS does.

The models have ben doing this for a while now, they have changed their mind on whether Florida will be wet or dry, past sevveral runs have all been much wetter, yet forecasers drop their rain chances from just a single model run.

Remember the good ole days, just last year when they didn't buy every single model run and actually made sold forecasts that didn't change dramatically every 2 or 3 days.


They seem to have lost their touch around here lately.


I think they need me to save them from selves, somone who thinks models aren't Gods and trusts climotology and human instinct and just plain old experience more then a couple of computer model runs.

Models are tools, and if they are used anywhere beyond that they will decrease your forecasting accuracy.


Sorry folks, just venting that out if you don't mind! LOL

It just bugs me to see that, I can't get why they have been so flip floppy and quick to by every model run lately, they never used to so much.


At least a couple of the local guys still have their rain chances high and are using their brains and ignoring a coupel of model runs.
All I have to say is WOW! Pretty active this early morning I see.
Good morning...

I continue to like what iam seeing with all these trofs of low pressure continueing and if which is a big if that trof stays in place of the eastcaost which should be ok with systems coming from the east this year.If it does i expect something similar to 2006 with a few more named systems which would take us to an above average hurricane season in 2007.

The atmosphere is constantly changing but as stated by dr.masters i few days ago sometimes when these patterns get establised they can stay put for months.Adrian
Looks like we are stuck in a 2 or 3 year pattern of quiet hurricane seasons after a couple busy years .2004 and 2005.Petty much the pattern if you look at past patterns.
it is only june i dont know how yall can tell it is going to be quiet usually the season doesnt get active until august anyway
Morning All...I have a stupid question. What is the AVN? Is that a model? What does the legend at the bottom represent?

Just curious after seeing an earlier post. I tried to search google for info, but couldn't come up with anything other than the loops. Thanks...
So, in this link from above... Link

what does the legend at the bottom represent? Wind, rain, pressure?
Thanks StormW!
Hello all I've been gone for a couple of days what kind of report came out? I mean from what i am reading people are saying it's gonna be like 2006. I am just wondering not trying to start anything. Thanks in advance if someone answers me.
Well I guess no one is on today. I guess i will try to figure this out some how.
JPHurricane2006, I know you don't like comments like this but it will be another dud of a season. I called it last year about this time and I'm saying it again. Way below average season on tap for us this year. But that's just my opinion/gut feel.