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Next century's most important place in the world--Greenland?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:58 PM GMT on December 21, 2007

If one had to pick the region of the world most likely to influence the course of human history this century, the Middle East would be the obvious choice, due to its political volatility and rich oil resources. However, the Middle East may have a significant challenger next century from a seemingly unlikely place--Greenland. Why Greenland? Well, the Greenland ice sheet holds enough water to raise global sea level 7 meters (23 feet). There are worrisome signs that the ice sheet might be more vulnerable than we thought to significant melting near the end of the century, according to research results presented at last week's annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) in San Francisco. The meeting is the world's largest annual gathering of climate change scientists.

For climate change scientists, Greenland is clearly the most important place in the world. You could tell this by the way glaciers with unpronounceable names like "Kangerdlugssuaq" rolled off their tongues in a smooth, practiced manner at talks given at the AGU meeting. At least 120 presentations focused on the Arctic or Greenland, and fully 52 of these concerned Greenland. I attended roughly 20 of these talks, and most of the presenters made it clear that they were quite concerned about the future of Arctic sea ice and the Greenland ice sheet, particularly in light of the astounding Arctic sea ice melt that occurred in 2007. A number of these talks raised the possibility that we've reached a tipping point in the Arctic. A complete loss of summertime sea ice may occur between 2013 and 2040, three of the presenters said, with the resulting warming dooming the Greenland ice sheet to a slow but inevitable melting process over a period of centuries. None of the presenters expressed the view that the current melting of the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea ice was due to a natural cycle that would completely halt or reverse in the next few years or decades.

At a talk on "The Recent Arctic Warm Period", Dr. Jim Overland, an Arctic expert with NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, didn't offer his view on whether a tipping point had been reached. Instead, he asked the audience to vote. The options he presented:

* A The melt back of Arctic sea ice observed in 2007 is permanent and will not lessen.
* B Ice coverage will partially recover but continue to decrease.
* C The ice would recover to 1980s levels but then continue to decline over the coming century.

Both Options A and B had audience support, but only one brave soul voted for the most conservative option C.


Figure 1. A research submarine breaks through the Arctic ice. Image credit: Bernard Coakley.

The latest news from Greenland
I was amazed see the tremendous breadth and intensity of research efforts focused on Greenland and the Arctic, presented at AGU. Extra funding has been given to research efforts as part of the International Polar Year (IPY) program, scheduled to run March 2007 through 2009. Satellites like Icesat and GRACE measure the extent of Greenland's ice from above, aided by a fleet of small and large research aircraft. Scientists now have unmanned aircraft that can use runways or be launched by slingshot that can measure the extent of Greenland's melt water lakes. The air armada will be joined next year by the Total Pole Airship, the first blimp used for Arctic studies. Manned and unmanned submarines measure the thickness of the sea ice surrounding the island, and both permanent and temporary bases dotted across Greenland and the polar sea ice house scientists doing land-based studies. Ships and buoys also add data from the ocean areas.

A short list of the results presented at AGU all point to an ice sheet in peril:

- Melting of snow above 2000 meters elevation on Greenland reached a new record in 2007 (Tedesco, 2007).

- Leigh Stearns of the University of Maine's Climate Change Institute showed that the contribution of Greenland melting to global sea level rise has doubled in the last five years. According to the 2007 IPCC report (see Figure 4.18), Greenland may account for as much as 10% of the total global annual sea rise of about 3-4 mm/year (approximately 1.5 inches per decade).

- Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have warmed over 5° C (9° F) over the waters west of Greenland since 1990 (Figure 1, to the right). This has caused the ice-free season to increase by over 60 days per year along the coast.

- The Greenland ice sheet has experienced conditions as warm as those today in the past. Lowell et al. (2007) found organic remains in eastern Greenland that had just been exposed by melting ice, and dated these remains at between A.D. 800 to 1014. Thus, this portion of Greenland was ice-free about 1000 years ago, and temperatures were presumably similar to today's. Erik the Red took advantage of this warm period to establish the first Norse settlements in Greenland around 950 A.D. However, the climate cooled after 1200 A.D., and the Norse settlements disappeared by 1550.

For more information, see our new Greenland feature on our expanding climate change page.

Jeff Masters

References
Lowell, T.V., et al., 2007, Organic Remains from the Istorvet Ice Cap, Liverpool Land, East Greenland: A Record of Late Holocene Climate Change,, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C13A-04.

Stearns, L.A., and G.S. Hamilton, 2007, New States of Behavior: Current Status of Outlet Glaciers in Southeast Greenland and the Potential for Similar Changes Elsewhere, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C13A-06.

Tedesco, M., "A New Record in 2007 for Melting in Greenland," EOS, 88:39, 2007, 383.

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"the summer and winter European temperatures for the late 21st century are
anticipated to greatly exceed the warmth of the past century",


Right in line with what the climate models predict.
When they plug in their estimates about CO2 rising, etc
The models are programmed to make predictions based on assumptions about CO2.
Celina...making a comeback?

Good evening!

Anyone on?
2007 will go down as one of the worst hurricane seasons for the Caribbean since 2004. The Caribbean suffered more deaths in 2007 than 2005. The landfalls of Dean and Felix made a record along with the devastation brought by Noel and Olga. It just goes to show only a few storms are needed to make a season bad. My heart goes out to my fellow brothers and sisters and hope in 2008 we can have better warning and communication systems in Hispaniola and parts of Central America.
We had a good heat-up-the-house oven dinner here. Roasted root veggies (beets, baby turnips, potatoes, garlic, onion), and chicken breasts with olive oil, a lemon slice, a sprig of rosemary, and a bit of dijon mustard, wrapped in the beet green leaves and baked. Yum!
hey h23.....happy holidays!
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Tropical Disturbance Summary 0000z 23DEC
========================================

Tropical Disturbance, Ex Dama
25.0S 89.0E - 1000 hPa

moving south at 4 knots

----

Tropical Disturbance, Ex Celina
20.6S 50.3E - 1004 hPa

moving slowly westward.
Hey 456!

Been kinda busy lately working on my weather station and some other projects around the house.Just got home from the movies with the wife i went to see iam a legend from will smith which actually turned out to be pretty good.

How you been?
doing fine and giving thanks. Any movie with Will Smith has to be aight.
Yea for sure will smith is one of my favorite actors.Dont know if your into scary movies but have you seen the mist by steven king?
I'm into scary movies but havnt seen that one.
Almost forgot i took some pics with Max Mayfield a few days ago at a AMS meeting i attended about a week ago i'll have those up possibly tommorow.
see u guys later...I don't know when i will be back...it could be 2morrow or Wednesday.
512. hurricane23 11:29 PM AST on December 22, 2007 Hide this comment.
Almost forgot i took some pics with Max Mayfield a few days ago at a AMS meeting i attended about a week ago i'll have those up possibly tommorow.


Looking forward.
Take care buddy if i dont here from you again have a great christmas with family. Adrian
Hey Adrian, How ya doing? This is the first time I have been on in almost 3 weeks. Been working alot of hours lately.
Sheri
Medieval Global Warming
A controversy over 14th century climate shows the peril of letting politics shape the scientific debate.


This is probably the most even-handed response the the GW issue (the political aspect of it) I have seen so far. This guy is saying his "gut" feels like GW is a response to manmade influences, but the scientific evidence, to him, wasn't there. This was back in 2003; wonder if he still feels that way.
Did somebody mention earlier the presence of vineyards in England?

However, for the sake of argument, let's assume that climate is actually the dominant control - so what does the history of English vineyards show?

The earliest documentation that is better than anecdotal is from the Domesday Book (1087) - an early census that the new Norman king commissioned to assess his new English dominions, including the size of farms, population etc. Being relatively 'frenchified', the Normans (who had originally come from Viking stock) were quite keen on wine drinking (rather than mead or ale) and so made special note of existing vineyards and where the many new vines were being planted. Sources differ a little on how many vineyards are included in the book: Selley quotes Unwin (J. Wine Research, 1990 (subscription)) who records 46 vineyards across Southern England (42 unambiguous sites, 4 less direct), but other claims (unsourced) range up to 52. Lamb's 1977 book has a few more from other various sources and anecdotally there are more still, and so clearly this is a minimum number.

Of the Domesday vineyards, all appear to lie below a line from Ely (Cambridgeshire) to Gloucestershire. Since the Book covers all of England up to the river Tees (north of Yorkshire), there is therefore reason to think that there weren't many vineyards north of that line. Lamb reports two vineyards to the north (Lincoln and Leeds, Yorkshire) at some point between 1000 and 1300 AD, and Selley even reports a Scottish vineyard operating in the 12th Century. However, it's probably not sensible to rely too much on these single reports since they don't necessarily come with evidence for successful or sustained wine production. Indeed, there is one lone vineyard reported in Derbyshire (further north than any Domesday vineyard) in the 16th Century when all other reports were restricted to the South-east of England.

Wine making never completely died out in England, there were always a few die-hard viticulturists willing to give it a go, but production clearly declined after the 13th Century, had a brief resurgence in the 17th and 18th Centuries, only to decline to historic lows in the 19th Century when only 8 vineyards are recorded. Contemporary popular sentiment towards English (and Welsh) wine can be well judged by a comment in 'Punch' (a satirical magazine) that the wine would require 4 people to drink it - one victim, two to hold him down, and one other to pour the wine down his throat.

Unremarked by most oenophiles though, English and Welsh wine production started to have a renaissance in the 1950s. By 1977, there were 124 reasonable-sized vineyards in production - more than at any other time over the previous millennium. This resurgence was also unremarked upon by Lamb, who wrote in that same year that the English climate (the average of 1921-1950 to be precise) remained about a degree too cold for wine production. Thus the myth of the non-existant English wine industry was born and thrust headlong into the climate change debate…

Since 1977, a further 200 or so vineyards have opened (currently 400 and counting) and they cover a much more extensive area than the recorded medieval vineyards, extending out to Cornwall, and up to Lancashire and Yorkshire where the (currently) most northerly commercial vineyard sits. So with the sole exception of one 'rather improbably' located 12th Century Scottish vineyard (and strictly speaking that doesn't count, it not being in England 'n' all…), English vineyards have almost certainly exceeded the extent of medieval cultivation. And I hear (from normally reliable sources) they are actually producing a pretty decent selection of white wines.

So what should one conclude from this? Well, one shouldn't be too dogmatic that English temperatures are now obviously above a medieval peak - the impact of confounding factors in wine production precludes such a clear conclusion (and I am pretty agnostic with regards to the rest of the evidence of whether northern Europe was warmer 1000 years than today). However, one can conclude that those who are using the medieval English vineyards as a 'counter-proof' to the idea of present day global warming are just blowing smoke (or possibly drinking too much Californian). If they are a good proxy, then England is warmer now, and if they are not…. well, why talk about them in this context at all?
Sorry.....but the winehead that actually wrote that Baha must surely have been drunk!
Not once......not once was the varietal selection of grapes mentioned.
It is possible.....possible as with all popular tastes that the grape crops they were raising were either not popular or fell out of favor.
Hence the demise of the grape production.
I didn't see that in that report.
Anybody have any idea where I can find info about Asian / SubSaharan African climatology for the last two millenia? Just about everything out there seems to be related to the European, or at best a few reports from the American, record. What about records of volcanic eruptions worldwide? I'm really curious now about what is available on this earlier period of potential warming that may fall within recorded histories outside the Roman sphere.

Even suggestions on what topics to search for would be welcome.
You might have to dig up research involving seabed cores Baha. There's a lot of that out there.
I have read many papers but do not have a handy link for you.
vort,

Some other things I read there (responses by bloggers, I guess) did bring in those issues, and they talked a lot as well about the effects of warmer temps on Californian wine.

His point was that vines grown in England is not a particularly good way of proving whether GW is manmade.

Another point I have been seeing circulated as I read is that of a kind of semi-millenial oscillation of temperatures: a gradual increase in temperatures between say just before the end of the BC period and about 450, followed by a cold period, followed by this warming period where the Norse lived in Greenland, and then by what is called the Little Ice Age. Something like this makes a lot of sense to me.

My concern is whether the warming trend is genuinely global - i. e. everywhere is warming at the same time - or whether the warming in one area of the planet is being offset by cooling in another. If, say, the Artic is melting, is the Antartic becoming correspondingly cooler?
Right.
There is much debate in the scientific community regarding the medieval warm period (MWP).
Debate about if it was truly a global happening or just regional.
I have seen convincing papers on both sides and to be honest......I'm leaning towards the possibility that it might be just ocean upwelling and the transference of warmer water.
Which appears may be happening currently in the Greenland area.
The positive Atlantic Layer Core Temperature (ALCT) anomalies.
Or this could be correct:


Climate Models Inch Towards Acknowledging the Reality of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reference
Goosse, H., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A. and Bradley, R.S. 2005. Internal and forced climate variability during the last millennium: a model-data comparison using ensemble simulations. Quaternary Science Reviews 24: 1345-1360.
Background
The Northern Hemispheric temperature reconstruction of Mann et al. (1999) and the global temperature reconstruction of Mann and Jones (2003) fail to clearly portray the existence of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA), which failure has led many proponents of CO2-induced global warming to conclude that these multi-century intervals of relative warmth and cold were but regional temperature anomalies that occurred in certain lands surrounding the North Atlantic Ocean, as opposed to true Northern Hemisphere-wide or global phenomena forced by variations in some factor or factors external to earth's climate system.

What was done
In the present paper, the authors "address the question as to whether the MWP and the LIA are robust features which were forced by solar and volcanic activity or whether they are representations of internal climate noise." This is done via a three-dimensional climate model that was used to perform 25 simulations over the last millennium driven by what the authors believe to be "the main natural and anthropogenic forcing." The results of these model runs were then "compared to available reconstructions in order to evaluate the relative contribution of internal and forced variability during this period."

What was learned
The results of this "model-data comparison," in the words of Goosse et al., was that the MWP and LIA were found to be "hemispheric-scale phenomena, since the temperature averaged over the Northern Hemisphere was, respectively, generally higher/lower during those periods because of a stronger/weaker external forcing at that time."

With respect to the former of these periods, they say "the MWP was a hemispheric-scale phenomenon, at least [our italics], since the temperature averaged over the Northern Hemisphere was generally higher during the period 1000-1200 AD than during the following centuries," and they state that "this is the consequence of a global [our italics] forcing, external to the climate system itself."

Natural internal variability of the system still exerts itself, however, and in some places and at some times it masks the external global signal; and "because of this role of internal variability," as they put it, they conclude that "synchronous peak temperatures during the MWP between different locations are unlikely to have occurred." Nevertheless, they find that on local and regional scales, the external forcing results in "a higher probability for any location to have warm conditions than cold ones during the MWP."

What it means
These findings are very significant, for they support the likely global-scale reach of the MWP and LIA. They are not yet the end of the story, however, for as noted by Goosse et al., they were "only able to test the response of the physical processes well represented in the model and processes not included might imply a different behavior," as well, we would add, as a different magnitude of temperature change. Many of the papers whose archived reviews may be found in our Subject Index, for example, portray a much warmer MWP than is suggested by the data employed by Mann et al. and Mann and Jones in developing their temperature histories. Hence, we believe it will not be too much longer before it will be impossible to deny that the MWP was at least as warm as it has been in recent decades, the significance of which conclusion resides in the fact that whatever caused the warming of the Medieval Warm Period (which we know was not CO2) could well be responsible for creating the equivalent (or possibly even lesser) warmth of the Modern Warm Period.

References
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1999. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762.

Mann, M.E. and Jones, P.D. 2003. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophysical Research Letters 30: 10.1029/2003GL017814.

I don't really think Greenland will be that important.
350. Patrap 4:21 PM GMT on December 22, 2007

* At Grand Isle, Louisiana, sea level already is rising by 41 inches per century, and is likely to rise another 55 inches by 2100.


Everywhere I look, all the charts suggest a sea level rise of only 7.87 inches in the last century. How can Grand Isle have a sea level rise of 41 inches per century while the rest of the world is experiencing only just under 8 inches.

Perhaps your source is a wee bit over-enthusiastic and tends to make up stuff. What do you think?
morning Linden

It's sorta made up.

Grand Isle is sinking.
Saying sea levels are rising, without saying that the barrier islands are sinking faster

Well you decide if it's misleading on purpose


Link

""From the Mississippi border to the Texas state line, Louisiana is losing its protective fringe of marshes and barrier islands faster than any place in the U.S. Since the 1930s some 1,900 square miles (4,900 square kilometers) of coastal wetlands—a swath nearly the size of Delaware or almost twice that of Luxembourg—have vanished beneath the Gulf of Mexico. Despite nearly half a billion dollars spent over the past decade to stem the tide, the state continues to lose about 25 square miles (65 square kilometers) of land each year, roughly one acre every 33 minutes.

A cocktail of natural and human factors is putting the coast under. Delta soils naturally compact and sink over time, eventually giving way to open water unless fresh layers of sediment offset the subsidence. ""
520. BahaHurican 2:05 AM EST on December 23, 2007 Hide this comment.
Anybody have any idea where I can find info about Asian / SubSaharan African climatology for the last two millenia?


Baha
Earlier you were asking about studies done on the medieval warm period throughout the world. Here is a great link that shows pretty much all of them. When you have time take a look at the charts showing what the consensus, lol of the studies show. Medieval Warm Period Project
GM to all, cant stay:

Please visit my blog for the

Western Atlantic Synopsis and Special Weather Image of the Day
528. sebastianjer 10:22 AM EST on December 23, 2007
520. BahaHurican 2:05 AM EST on December 23, 2007 Hide this comment.
Anybody have any idea where I can find info about Asian / SubSaharan African climatology for the last two millenia?

Baha
Earlier you were asking about studies done on the medieval warm period throughout the world. Here is a great link that shows pretty much all of them. When you have time take a look at the charts showing what the consensus, lol of the studies show. Medieval Warm Period Project


Thanks seb. I saw this earlier, but I'm still not getting the map to work properly.
Baha
Just go here

Link
Baha, re the map.

I thought I had the same problem too.

Until I noticed the bar at the very bottom of the screen. The same one as the START button.

Any way, I noticed the name of the screen when it first loaded when I chose The Bahamas and then when I chose Everglades, nothing seemed to happen. That is until I clicked on the icon for the original screen that had displayed the Bahamas and, lo and behold, there it was.
It may depend on which browser you are using.
534. P451
"Pablo" as jokingly named is still out there. Seems to be losing it's punch. Very interesting system and track though.

Link to Sat Image


Is it just me or are have there been a high number of odd occluded / double low systems already?
lin,

I'm getting a red error button. That's a sure sign it's not working properly LOL.

I think it's an issue with my Java that I will have to work out later.
536. BahaHurican 5:14 PM GMT on December 23, 2007
lin,

I'm getting a red error button. That's a sure sign it's not working properly LOL.

I think it's an issue with my Java that I will have to work out later.


I hate it when that happens.

Grrr.

Have you tried using a differet browser to see if things got any better?

On a really fussy site I go to IE and the problem usually goes away. Of course, along with IE comes all those dailers viruses and bots, which is why I prefer Netscape 7.2 or higher.
My concern is whether the warming trend is genuinely global - i. e. everywhere is warming at the same time - or whether the warming in one area of the planet is being offset by cooling in another. If, say, the Artic is melting, is the Antartic becoming correspondingly cooler?

Excuse me? There is a reason why it is called global warming (many people seem to forget about this, thus they post stuff about some cold snap that proves global cooling is occurring instead). It also isn't uniform either, and some areas can still have cold years, but overall the trend is like the map below (compare the warm areas to the cold areas, it is pretty evident that overall warming is occurring):



Also note that Antarctica lagged behind (even some slight cooling) until recent years, but has caught up in a big way, as Dr. Masters posted a while back, perhaps at the expense of some other areas (not surprising, if large amounts of cold Antarctic air are pushing northwards and being replaced by warm air, but in an overall warmer environment, you would normally expect to see a balance). One exception to this is ENSO, where the warm water from El Nino is not completely balanced out by colder water elsewhere and vice versa for La Nina (thus these events cause short-term variations in global temperatures; it should be noted however we are talking about surface temperatures, because while La Nina for example causes cold water upwelling, it also causes warm water to downwell in the West Pacific, eventually warming the subsurface; El Nino eventually results in subsurface cooling).
Aliens 'obsessed with Earth's weather'

By Roger Highfield, Science Editor
Last Updated: 4:01pm GMT 21/12/2007
Link





A view of Earth showing cloud and temperature
MichaelSTL Problem with your map and all the ones that say we are in great danager is they are made by computers and we really truely don't know whats happening. Think of it this way... How often are the forcasting computers right? Its funny I found a few months ago a article Al Gore wrote in 1999 about GW and he said it was happening and such but at a rate that we have 200 years to correct it and all that. Then in 2001 it was 175 years, then it dropped to 150 years, then just last week he stated we have less then 50 years before all hell breaks loose. Shoot at this rate we are all going to be dead by 2010 if we don't stop creating Co2. Better tell nature that too since nature makes more then we do.
542. P451
Michael, your map clearly shows POLAR warming. Worse is that is a region that satellites have limited coverage.

We also can't trust this "global warming" panic because the earth has shown in the past to go through amazing cold and warm stretches. A classic example are caves off of Bermuda as far as 400 feet under the sea that have Bat Guano covering the floors of these underwater caves.

There as also sea shells found high in the hills and mountains of NW New Jersey.

It just shows that the earth goes through drastic changes - changes that some say take at most 10 years to flip.

While we are certainly helping this latest warming trend of the planet we are not the seed of it's growth. It's happened before, it will happen again, and the earth will once again be a frozen planet in the future.

Mars is more than likely our future not Venus (until the sun decides to expand as theorized of course).

539. MichaelSTL 1:50 PM EST on December 23, 2007

Sorry, STL, I didn't use the right tense. When I wrote that message I was thinking about what I had been reading about the Medieval Warm Period. So far, what I've seen supports a warming in the N. ATL area, with potentially a drying in the US SW and Central America that might represent some kind of La Niña-like long-term trend. But there isn't a lot available in the internet about weather trends in other areas - Australia, Africa, Asia S. America - to confirm that the warming trend at the time was global.

I think we have enough available for now to support the current period as one of global warming.
Mars is more than likely our future not Venus

Another person added to my ignored list... to think that the Earth will eventually become another Venus because of global warming... shows they know nothing...

rmh9903 as well... as if he doesn't know where the data to make that map came from... not from a computer I can tell you that... that is the last 365 days of actual observations... not a future computer model projection (he obviously can't believe that; look here and weep) like this:



Unexpected "bitter cold" swept the entire Southern Hemisphere in 2007. Johannesburg, South Africa, had the first significant snowfall in 26 years.

(just to rub the skeptics' noses into the dirt again)

PS: Don't try to reply, it won't work; I also recommend to others to use the ignore button instead of flagging posts (which I almost never do anyway, even to plus them because I don't want to take the time), much easier to do and doesn't make their comments become hidden to others who might have some reason to see them.
re: post 540

I guess that makes us WU bloggers aliens? :)


O My,I was going to Blow up the Earth, but since your Doing it yourselves..I shall exit, this way..Harumph!
(just to rub the skeptics' noses into the dirt again)

I can understand where you're coming from. I myself now believe in global warming (I used to be a skeptic). But isn't putting every single skeptic on ignore considered discrimination?
548. KoritheMan 12:12 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
(just to rub the skeptics' noses into the dirt again)

I can understand where you're coming from. I myself now believe in global warming (I used to be a skeptic). But isn't putting every single skeptic on ignore considered discrimination?


No silly wabbit it's not discrimination.

Personally, I like the 'IGNORE' button because it makes the blog so much easier to navigate. Those who insist on shoving their prowess at image manipulation down my throat without regard that I might have a slow dial-up or who are simply not nice...Click on 'Ignore User' and they vanish without a trace.

Now that I have learned the trick to the 'IGNORE' button, this blog is so much more tranquil and pleasant.

Whenever I want to see all that is going on, I don my isolation suit and simply log on anonymously and all that stuff is back in all its' gory detail. It's easy, it's quick and no settings have to be changed back and forth.

Even the so-called bannings go away like magic.
from August 25th 2006; Link


New Jeff Masters blog for dial-up users
There is new blog site for those of you suffering on slow dial-up connections, or for those of you who don't want to see the comments: Link

http://www.wund.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Jeff Masters
So much for the other site that was supposedly for slow dial-ups. All the same wanabe image wonks as with this site.

What is needed is a way to force thumbnails on the main blog with links to the bigger images for those interested in seeing them. Now that would make the site faster.

The bells and whistles still work; just that it isn't any faster.

One thing it has going for it though is the fact that is a much cleaner presentation. I like it.
552. P451
Another person added to my ignored list... to think that the Earth will eventually become another Venus because of global warming... shows they know nothing...

You place people on your ignore list that you disagree with? Why even participate in an open forum? If you truly believe your opinion is fact and everyone else's ideas are mere fallacy perhaps you'd be better off writing a book and spreading your wisdom by touring the country.

As to my comment if you can't interpret such a blanket statement then you have no business staking your own opinions as fact while attempting to talk down to others.

Good day, sir.
If one is to do the weather thing online..I would suggest finding a Affordable Satellite Hi-Speed Connection if a Cable one isnt available where one lives.

We get that some dont have it. But Linking the images isnt done by everyone..sadly.
I try to link all my content,esp during Landfalling Canes or severe weather. Moving,or animated ones are a real No-no here too. Its slows everyone down.A link is much better all around.
"a article Al Gore wrote in 1999 about GW and he said it was happening and such but at a rate that we have 200 years to correct it and all that. Then in 2001 it was 175 years, then it dropped to 150 years, then just last week he stated we have less then 50 years before all hell breaks loose. Shoot at this rate we are all going to be dead by 2010"

It's exactly those things, and many more examples of the same sort of thing, that sets my warning bells off.

One, they say we should trust them because they know what they are talking about.
Yet, they are contradicting themselves all the time.
We should believe in 1999 that they knew what they were talking about,
then changed it, but they still know what they are talking about.

If it's only 50 years now, wasn't someone wrong when they said 200 years?

Plus, it just seems like a push to pay.
Like some shady deal.
542. P451 3:39 PM EST on December 23, 2007
and the earth will once again be a frozen planet in the future


That would be the real spooky part, if any of us were going to live that long.

The very reason we are here is because the planet got warmer.


Someone told me a funny story the other day.
Having sex is very inefficient, just simple division is much more efficient.
But that produces a exact copy, and takes a whole lot longer to create adjustments for species survival.
Having sex, gets a lot more diversity in the gene pool, and allows for a much faster evolution, or adaption to faster changing environment.

so the reason we have sex, which is a very inefficient form of reproduction and should have been either discarded or literally bred out or not evolved in the first place, is because of climate change.
553. Patrap 1:48 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
If one is to do the weather thing online..I would suggest finding a Affordable Satellite Hi-Speed Connection if a Cable one isnt available where one lives.

We get that some dont have it. But Linking the images isnt done by everyone..sadly.
I try to link all my content,esp during Landfalling Canes or severe weather. Moving,or animated ones are a real No-no here too. Its slows everyone down.A link is much better all around.


I must admit that I have noticed your consistent use of links, and you should be commended for it.

Were it not for cable in my area, I would be forced to use dial-up because DSL is not available. I am forced, however to use dial-up at my business. I am too cheap to pay $95 per month for commercial access which is the only other choice I have available.

Concerning dial-up access, yes, it is a ridiculous chore to have to wait for the blog to load because of a few discourteous individuals who seem more bent on displaying their wannabe prowess with images and charts. Add to that inconvenience the fact that if I do attempt to read a post before all images have loaded, my read is often disrupted because the screen resets with each finished image.

Why can't the people who program this blog simply force linking to the respective bloggers and their blogs, with thumbnails being displayed in the actual post? The thumbnail could be twice the size of the avatar and it would be easy to see enough detail to aid in making the choice to view the full sized picture by clicking on the thumbnail. That way they get to show off their prowess and we get to read the blog without all the download drag.
But isn't putting every single skeptic on ignore considered discrimination?

I am talking about the ones who are so against it that they think it is all a big hoax or scam, the kind of people who think that we can't be even responsible for at least some of the warming (I consider this just as bad as people who say that everything is caused by man-made climate change). Put it another way - to completely deny that we have had any affect at all on the climate is like saying that we are not responsible for anything else that we have done (pollution, extinctions, overhunting, etc). I think it all stems from "we cannot possibly affect something as big as the earth", not realizing how many people there are on this planet (and depending on the exact method to calculate it, we are already well over what the planet can sustain, and consider than everybody wants to live the way we do in the U.S.). This way of thinking has lead to disaster before (and as far as climate change goes, it does not mean anything like what you might see in certain horror flicks, much less Earth becoming another Venus, for example, you have to realize that Venus's atmosphere is far denser (~90x) and I see no way that the same could happen to Earth).
lindenii,

Apparently you dont be here during the hurricane season. But I am one of the persons who you are referring to in your posts and I am offended. You cannot tell people what to post and how to post them. Persons will just ignore you and continue posting. Its apart of the Hurricane and Typhoon Seasons and people are not going to stop posting or posting thumbnails just for you.

But I am a reasoning person and just to show you I will from now on post thumbnails instead of the full size images so both you and I can enjoy. Also you need be more polite. It does not show at first, but you seem to make other posts look bad using intelligence. You seem like an educated person but you must not abuse that gift. That is why I called you an educated jackass and you are not giving me any reason to take it back. Sorry but I feel as tho u put me down.
559. V26R
Merry Christmas 456
560. V26R
STL if you're still here
Merry Christmas too
And also,

Just becuz someone is not interested in the same topic as you does not mean you have to shun them. For example, when I was discussing the Irish Storm and you were talking about Dr Master's post about "did this years storm deserve names." You made it sound I was posting off-topic nonsense and even assumed I took some past image and post it as a web cam shot. Those of things you have been doing since u come here. Frankly, I am not interested in whether they got named or not, what's done is done. Neither the topic of GW. That is something you should respect.
559. V26R 10:53 PM AST on December 23, 2007 Hide this comment.
Merry Christmas 456


Merry Xmas to you too.
we are already well over what the planet can sustain, and consider than everybody wants to live the way we do in the U.S.

Michael, if more countries lived like us there would be a lot less of the pollution you're talking about.
China is the number one polluter of the entire Pacific Ocean.
564. V26R
Pretty Nasty Line about to move into the NYC area

Link
565. V26R
I guess this explains the activity level
lately on here


"There is no tropical storm activity for this region"
566. V26R


456,

I appreciate your reasoned and deliberate post regarding the posting of images and charts.

Effective immediately, I retract any and all negative references regarding that subject and express my regrets if feelings were hurt.

All I ask is that you and others who are prolific downloaders of images and charts, keep in mind that it takes forever, for those of us who enjoy the Wunderground blog and who are accessing it through a dial-up, to download the blog when there are massive amounts of data needing to be downloaded because of images and charts.

Surely the Admin can process each image submitted and include a thumbnail for use in the main post. Linking the thumbnail to the larger image would substantially speed up the blog and significantly reduce the bandwidth needed to keep it functioning properly.

That way, you do not have to think about it, the program handles it all for you and everybody is happy.

Merry Christmas 456. :-)>
Coastal Storm expected to develop and move up offshore the US East Coast.

The first image shows the storm just east of the Carolinas on the 26. While second shows a deeper and more intense storm over Newfoundland, Canada on the 28. Both images are by the Global Forecasting System (GFS). The NAM also shows the cyclone in T60 hrs just off the US East Coast.



569. V26R
Lindenii
If you are having troubles at this time of season, maybe you should consider getting a
better connection type because in a few weeks
when the Pacific season heats up and then
the Atlantic season starts it can get really hectic on this site
Merry Christmas 456. :-)>

Merry Christmas to you too!
571. V26R
456 which model is that?
Forget GW - Prevent LOCAL WARMING
A red flag warning is now in effect for Monday from 12 PM EST
/11 am CST/ until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ for the eastern Florida
Panhandle and Florida Big Bend
The GFS
560. V26R 8:54 PM CST on December 23, 2007
STL if you're still here
Merry Christmas too


Thanks


I guess this explains the activity level
lately on here

"There is no tropical storm activity for this region"


LOL
561. Weather456 2:59 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
And also,

Just becuz someone is not interested in the same topic as you does not mean you have to shun them. For example, when I was discussing the Irish Storm and you were talking about Dr Master's post about "did this years storm deserve names." You made it sound I was posting off-topic nonsense and even assumed I took some past image and post it as a web cam shot. Those of things you have been doing since u come here. Frankly, I am not interested in whether they got named or not, what's done is done. Neither the topic of GW. That is something you should respect.


Honestly, 456, those images belonged in your blog and not in the general post area. They were simply pictures of rain, mist, fog and waves with some cliffs and building thrown in for good measure. Where they originated had no bearing on the fact that there was nothing so special about those pictures that they deserved bandwidth on the main blog.

I like viewing the blog while at work and I see it as fortunate that I tried accessing it through dial-up because I became aware of the plight of those among us who might actually be unable to afford the expense of a DSL connection. $30 a month and more is a lot of money to some of us and suggesting that we get a faster connection so that others can play to their hearts content is just not fair.

Is it really that unfair to ask bloggers to post their images more responsibly? What is so hard about a thumbnail with a link to a bloggers site where the full image can be found ; if it means that others can more easily enjoy the Wunderground experience? Text only takes moments to download, it is the images that make it a daunting task and makes the visit to Wunderground unpleasant at times.
576. V26R
WOW 456 FNMOC calling for that Low to explode up over the very North Atlantic down to a 976mb
Broad area in 2 days after hit nails Newfoundland

Looks like another one right on its heals too



Link
577. V26R
"Honestly, 456, those images belonged in your blog and not in the general post area. They were simply pictures of rain, mist, fog and waves with some cliffs and building thrown in for good measure. Where they originated had no bearing on the fact that there was nothing so special about those pictures that they deserved bandwidth on the main blog"


Sorry dude
Have to defend Mr. 456
He posts some of the best stuff on here and very on topic
So if you feel that some of his stuff isn't on the topic of weather, well...
Is it really that unfair to ask bloggers to post their images more responsibly? What is so hard about a thumbnail with a link to a bloggers site where the full image can be found ; if it means that others can more easily enjoy the Wunderground experience? Text only takes moments to download, it is the images that make it a daunting task and makes the visit to Wunderground unpleasant at times.

I am willing to post thumbs. But you may have problems next year with others.
579. V26R
"I like viewing the blog while at work and I see it as fortunate that I tried accessing it through dial-up because I became aware of the plight of those among us who might actually be unable to afford the expense of a DSL connection. $30 a month and more is a lot of money to some of us and suggesting that we get a faster connection so that others can play to their hearts content is just not fair"


Im wondering what your Boss would say if he saw that comment
So you want the rest of us suffer and not
take advantage of something that most of us bust our butts to get and enjoy then because you cannot afford to get a decent connection?
If you could not afford a car, but had a horse, would you want the rest of us to get one just to say even with you?

456,

Just so that you know. I am heavily involved with photography of wildlife and technical subjects as well and sometimes I get carried away with evaluating photos by people I hardly know and who never really asked for the evaluation in the first place.

Those images you posted meant something to you and I should have been more understanding about them. Sorry about that.
And I thought I was the last person in the world to get broadband. Time to move into the 00s. & it wasn't 30 additional $. Pony Up or back of the bus.,.
Evening everybody,

I would like to throw in my two cents on the image posting. I have found that images posted directly to the blog are more efficient for me. I don't think people include images to "show off their prowess". Those who regularly post images do so as a convenience for others who may not have the amount of time it takes to surf to all the different websites and individually gather the day's information. Also they are using images to justify forecast judgements, which makes sense to me. If I have to stop and open someone else's blog every time I look at an image, I'd never be able to read the blog before I go to work in the a. m. And, unlike many here, I don't have internet access at work at all - not even dialup - and there's nothing I can do about it, either. So having all the images on the page I downloaded means I can read the blog offline later without a problem. I couldn't do that with thumbnails.

I do believe if you are posting images you should take care that your image has not already been posted. The Admins have already done a lot to ensure that pic sizes stay within reasonable limits. But there are advantages to having the pictures posted into the blog for me, and I'm sure many other bloggers feel the same way.
583. V26R
Ohhhh
Express
Careful now


ROFLOL
584. V26R
Merry Christmas Baha
563. latitude25 10:04 PM EST on December 23, 2007

China is the number one polluter of the entire Pacific Ocean.


China is living the way the US was in the last century.

You know, I wonder how come China is not up to its navel in garbage and pollution? It's always had a higher population density in its urban areas than just about any other country - I'm talking a couple thousand years here. I wonder how they dealt with pollution issues during the Ming dynasty? Maybe they have abandoned useful clean methods to become more "modern".
V26R,

You call it suffering to have to click on a thumbnail image?

Your analogy with the car and horse does not work in this situation; it's like comparing apples to oranges.

Nobody is saying to stop the practice...just think about the rest of us. Are you saying that clicking on a thumbnail image in order to view the full image is such a difficult endeavor that you are willing to throw those of us with dial-up under ther train so to speak?

According to several websites which keep statistics on such things as percentages of dial-up users and the others, the latest figures suggest that over 35% still access the internet through a dial-up type of system. Certain types of WiFi aren't all that much faster either. It all depends on where you are in relation to the 'tower'.
Have a Gnight all...see u guys later.
588. V26R
Nite 456
590. V26R
"Nobody is saying to stop the practice...just think about the rest of us. Are you saying that clicking on a thumbnail image in order to view the full image is such a difficult endeavor that you are willing to throw those of us with dial-up under ther train so to speak?"


Basically you did in a previous spost by telling 456 to keep the sizes of his images real small because you cannot afford or
do not want to spend the money on a decent internet connection, so if you cannot or do not want to upgrade your connection, yes I have to say why should I suffer by looking a images that are put into thumbnail size just to please you???



Merry Christmas Bahamian style, everyone!!!
583. V26R 3:45 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
Ohhhh
Express
Careful now

He knows I didn't mean it in a mean spirited way. I just switched over myself not too long ago. All that hassle over $10/month. Cable Modems make great stocking stuffers.

I admit loading the blog with dialup can be challenging. I've done it a few times when we've had power outages during storms and I wanted to post. It's worth the wait.
You know, a simpler solution would be for users to be able to use a setting in their profiles to turn automatic picture downloading on or off. That way only the ones affected by the slow downloads would need to adjust, and it would allow those people to select which pictures, if any, they want to see.
V26R

I guess you don't understand the concept of a 'Thumbnail Image'

Have you ever opened a folder with a whole bunch of pictures and seen only names?

Did you know that you could click on 'VIEW' then click on the choice 'Thumbnails' and see all the pictures in the folder, only much smaller?

Did you know that you could then click on the image and have it load in one of your graphics programs?

The admin could easily process a thumbnail image that would, by default, be posted in your post to the main blog. Just as easily they could make a link to the full sized image so that those who wanted could see the full image. It is not rocket science to do this sort of thing.

If Admin does it, you won't even have to think about it, it will simply be done as part of the process of posting a message.
586. lindenii 10:50 PM EST on December 23, 2007
V26R,

You call it suffering to have to click on a thumbnail image?


You might be surprised at how annoying that becomes after a very short period of time. Like the one you love squeezing the toothpaste tube from the middle when u think it should be squeezed from the end. Little things can mean a lot.
Lin, I think my solution is easier for Admin to install. Instead of making everything into a thumbnail, why not just set pictures on or off?
594. BahaHurican 4:02 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
You know, a simpler solution would be for users to be able to use a setting in their profiles to turn automatic picture downloading on or off. That way only the ones affected by the slow downloads would need to adjust, and it would allow those people to select which pictures, if any, they want to see.


Dang nab it!!! I never thought of that solution!!

So simple and yet so perfect. Set it and forget it. There could even be a placeholder for those who set the images to 'off'. That way they would know there were images included with the post.

Brilliant, Baha, simply brilliant!!.

599. V26R
You know Baha
I hate when that happens to my toothpaste tube
I hope WunderYakuza is paying attention. This could be the start of a whole new WunderGround . . .

Baha is right. Member settings could include Quality: High, Medium, or Low & text only. I guess this discusson should go to the Dev Blog.
Now that I think of it, I'm surprised Aaron and those didn't think of it before.

YOu know, there used to be a lot of problems with too large images. I notice now that the blog will generally not allow images wider than about 650 pixels or so to be posted.

So maybe they are thinking along our lines, but haven't implemented yet?
I'm going to say good night now. I have to get out in the morning, unfortunately. I really enjoyed the last 2 days when I could sit and read to my heart's content . . .

G'night, all!
You can turn off pictures in your browser by going to Tools, Internet Options, Advanced, then uncheck Show Pictures under Multimedia. That might not be what you want though, as all pictures will be disabled. Also, as far as image size goes, I noticed that some people have their images restriced to a fixed size, but I can still see them at full size (this can cause scrolling problems if somebody posts an unresized 1024 pixel or wider image). There is an option for image resizing under Internet Options in my browser, but it only works for pictures like this, that appear by themselves. Not really a problem though (and I have the latter turned off because it gets annoying to have to click the enlarge button all the time).
605. V26R
Im outta here too

TTFN all
456 why have you not put the person attacking you on ignore? Where they truly having problems with your posts they could put you on ignore and not have to deal with them. If the person you are responding to is who I think, if not a troll they certainly need a lot of education as to blogging etiquette.

On a similar thread. To discriminate is to choose. To choose not to listen to someone is not a sign of lack respect for freedom of speech. I don't listen to Rush Limbaugh any more not because I disagree with him (I do) but because I became bored with his act and didn't think I was learning anything new about how people I disagree with think. However I make it a point to read George Will someone who I disagree with often but continue to learn from. (He'd give me hell for that preposition on the end of the sentence,) This my personal choice. Were I to hear that Limbaugh was being banned from the airwaves by the government I would be irate, deluge my representatives with letters and join in a "March on Washington for his right to state his views". I still wouldn't listen to his show. However were he to loose his contract with whatever syndication service he works for I would consider it a workplace dispute and not loose any sleep over the issue.

I apologize for the length of this rant but freedom of speech is a topic dear to my heart and I've put in a lot of shoe leather to get to the point where I stand. Were we "In Season" I would not have posted it.


To those of you who read to the end: Thank you.
To those who do not: You have my respect.
GM all,

456 why have you not put the person attacking you on ignore?

While true...I dont have any need for an ignore list. I will use the ignore list as really really really last resort. I like to here two sides of a debate. Using an ignore list, you just be "listening to yourself".

I did not know that this picture thing will become such an issue. Yes I hope Wunderground will have a quick solution for 08. And also if you notice and go back all my images never exceeded a width of 500 pixels.
I have to admit...2007 seem like a really long year. Maybe its becuz I utilize every single day this year to the fullest.
does anyone know how warm the ocean is this year compared to normal. thanks.
Something to remember in 2008.

There are three tropical wave models

African Wave - Tracked from Ethiopia to the West African Coast. These are vigorous squalls with no surface low until they reached the coasts. This year I found them easy to track using atmospheric variables at 700 mb - PV, TPW, Voticity and Winds. Also, surface and upper air obs from Dakar was used to track these waves as they enter the Atlantic.

The Inverted V Tropical Wave - From the Canary Islands to the Lesser Antilles. The wave cause perturbation in the easterly trades and cloudiness. This year I found them easy to track using visible imagery and quikscat..along with 700 - surface variables.

The Eastern Caribbean Wave - As waves enter the Caribbean they increase in convection after a relatively inactive Trans-Atlantic trip through the Saharan Dust Layer. Increase cloudiness and wind shifts in the Islands was helpful in tracking these waves. Also ROABS from Trinidad, Barbados, Guadeloupe and Sint Maarten was helpful in tracking these waves.

There are countless resources to track these waves so you to can indentify a wave and track it even though there wud be no shower activity.
350. Patrap "At Grand Isle, Louisiana, sea level already is rising by 41 inches per century, and is likely to rise another 55 inches by 2100."

526. lindenii "How can Grand Isle have a sea level rise of 41 inches per century while the rest of the world is experiencing only just under 8 inches.
Perhaps your source is a wee bit over-enthusiastic and tends to make up stuff. What do you think?
"

Methinks ya see AnthropogenicGlobalWarming under your bed. 41inches per century is approximately the upper rate of modern-day tectonic subsidence in coastal Louisiana found through direct measurement of old elevation/landmark posts, without including any rise in sealevel.
Basicly everything south of the Michoud*Fault is slowly sliding down&south into the Gulf. Which wasn't particularly noticeable when the Mississippi was wild -- left free to change its course -- and depositing mud on top of that subsidence.
However the lower Mississippi has been turned into a canal from its junction with the AtchafalayaRiver southward in order to keep NewOrleans viable as port. Add channels dredged through barrier islands, swamps, and shallows to ease shipping -- which allows larger waves to more quickly erode the coastline itself; which in turn allows faster sliding down&south of soil inland from the coastline -- and the situation essentially resolves itself into sacrificing the rest of southern Louisiana to the ocean.

The 55inches includes the IPCC mean estimate of sea-level rise within this century. But that mean point was based on pre2004 data. Most of the people who worked on gathering and collating that data have been surprised by the sharp increase in ice melt since 2003, and feel that the IPCC's "mean" should now be viewed as the lower boundary.

* The 10Freeway from BatonRouge west to the Texas border and the 12Freeway from BatonRouge east through Slidell runs near the northern edge of the MichoudFault. There was a full report of Dokka's Congressional testimony with a complete map of the subsidence region and the location&changes of the elevation/landmark posts at http://www.house.gov/transportation/water/10-20-05/dokka.pdf , but the Republicans pulled it down before losing control.
Perhaps Dr.Masters can get Dokka's permission to post his report to Congress on this website.
IF I remember Dokka's map correctly...
Without filling in those artificial shipping channels and opening the MississippiRiver into its natural junction at the AtchafalayaRiver or massive reengineering of the MississippiCanal after NewOrleans, most of the land directly south of a staightline between PortArthur,Texas and NewOrleans,Louisiana will have subsided below current sealevel shortly after 2050.
By around 2100, most of the land directly south of the 10&12Freeways will have subsided below current sealevel. NewOrleans will exist as a below-sealevel seawalled island connected to BatonRouge by the peninisula of levees forming the MississippiCanal. The "crows foot" south and east of NewOrleans will continue to exist above sealevel due to deposition of the river-borne soil on the current(ly artificial) MississippiDelta. The 10Freeway, Beumont, LakeCharles, Lafayette, BatonRouge, and Sidell will remain above sealevel, though most of the 12Freeway will be underwater.
I am currently trying to find the exact figure but here's some info

Atlantic Ocean
Near normal SST conditions prevailed in equatorial Atlantic.
SST anomalies remained much smaller than those in the last year in MDR
Precipitation anomalies over Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea
Positive SST anomaly stretched southward in the extra-tropical North Atlantic
Morning 456,

I'm only looking in for a minute. I think 2007 was just LONG . . . Some of it may have been waiting for that other shoe to drop . . .

The picture thing, I'm sure, will more or less resolve itself. I genuinely believe the bulk of us don't have a problem with picture posting, and I seriously doubt we have 35 in 100 of the regular bloggers who would prefer not to see your pictures. I think everybody needs to be more judicious about posts (i. e. making sure pics are resized, not posting the same pic someone posted a few messages before), but that is just blog etiquette. Using links for large information is also very useful; it does not, nevertheless, have the immediate visual impact of direct pic posting. I happen to think a pic is worth a thousand words, and I'd rather look at the pic than read the words!

I hope you don't stop posting pics, especially now, in the off season when the blog is slow anyway. You could post a pic with practically every message now anyway and not use up the bandwidth we normally use in August and Sept.

For what it's worth 456
I find your post, pictures and all, some of the most informative and best on Dr. M's blog. Keep up the good work and thanks for the great insight you bring to the site

Jer
2008 will be even LONGER.
Good morning everyone!

I dont know if I'll be on tomorrow, so I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas!

Check out my blog on the COLD (for us anyway) morning we are having down here in the south.
Posting images on this blog is not as simple as using an attachment in an e-mail. From what I understand, it must be posted to the blog elsewhere and then called up for display. If that is not the case, it would be simple to initiate a process to do just that.

The methodology I am describing would be software that took an image from you and IT complied a thumbnail to go along with it. Whenever you wrote a message that included an image or chart, the software would post the thumbnail on you message, by default. The software would also complie the code for the LINK to the actual full sized image.

Assuming a download of 56Kbps dial-up modem speed.

What size should the image measure? 150px by 150px is best because that would cause a display size of 1 1/2 " X 1 1/2" on a monitor using 96 DPI and slightly larger than 2" X 2" on a 72 DPI monitor. In any case, the image or chart would consume 22k and would result in a download time of approximately 4 seconds each.

The so-called 500px by 500px image consumes 88k and takes approximately 16 seconds to download.

If each person posting to the blog were to download a single image 500 by 500; even if the display limit was set to 50 posts per page, that would mean having to wait almost 13 minutes.

If the same images had been compiled by the WU software into a thumbnail measuring 150by150, the time waiting would be reduced to 3.3 minutes instead.

Is it so outrageous to expect a little courtesy from all participants? It is amazing to see posts that say 'I hate clicking on links because it takes time to do that', and yet the same request for smaller thumbnail images is met with ridicule?

I repeat, WU can compile each and every image submitted and produce a thumbnail that can be posted with a post. It is not rocket science for them...it might take all of half an hour to write the code. That way, it would be 'automatic'.


611. aspectre 9:05 AM EST on December 24, 2007
Methinks ya see AnthropogenicGlobalWarming under your bed. 41inches per century is approximately the upper rate of modern-day tectonic subsidence in coastal Louisiana found through direct measurement of old elevation/landmark posts, without including any rise in sealevel.

aspectre, tell me if I'm reading this right.

Not only has New Orleans sunk about 3ft, but most of the salt water intrusion into the marshes and things like that, are more because of the land sinking 3ft.

Here is a article in NG, that says something to the effect that where the levees broke in Katrina, some of those levees could be 3 ft lower than when they were built 40 years ago.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/06/060601-new-orleans.html

"What we found is that some of the levee failures in New Orleans were [in] places where subsidence was highest," University of Miami geophysicist Tim Dixon told the Reuters news service."

"The data suggest that some levees could be 3 feet (0.9 meter) lower than when they were built some 40 years ago."

.


Place my vote as well with those that want 456 to continue posting his images. Those images are pretty much the only reason I come to read this blog these days now that the hurricane season has slowed down. I enjoy the images he posts that do not seem to be shown anywhere else. Please keep posting them 456.
It seems like majority rules here with the image conflict. MOST everyone now has DSL or faster, and it's not much more expensive (now-adays) than dial up.

I used to have dial up, but did not complain about things that other people had/have the right to do. 456 has never been flagged by wunderground for doing what he is doing...therefore he has the right to post the pic's as he pleases.

I do believe a number of users here have made the suggestion that you can set your preferences so that image's do not pop up and then you can select the ones you want to see.

Keep posting 456. I'd rather see the full pic's here because clicking on thumbnails just makes an extra step for everyone else who has an internet connection capable of handling the picture size.

That's another thing, why should nearly everyone else have to adjust for maybe 10% that have slow connections? That does not make sense.
Yes, please keep posting them W456. The pictures are quite interesting and help others learn more visually (such as your dvorak pictures).
People probably know by now that for optimal blogging, dial-up isnt a good choice.
greyelf,

This is not about the quality of the photos or the lack thereof. This is not about whether or not 456, or others for that matter, can/should post images to the blog.

It is about common courtesy. If you know that posting an image means a marked slowdown for somewhere near 35% of your fellow bloggers; is it right for you, in a sense, to say 'too bad so sad'. Or should you respect others by posting a thumbnail image with a link to the full image that is posted elsewhere? I am suggest that WU make the process automated.

Yes, if you are the only one posting an image, it is easy to say big deal to the slowdown since the slowdown is only 13 seconds. What happens when the number of messages with images rises to ten or twenty as it often does during season. At twenty images that slowdown rises to over 4 minutes.

Isn't that just a wee bit selfish on your part to suggest that they don't count and that you do? I am not saying stop posting images; doing so would make me just like them. I am saying that you should respect rights of others and do the right thing by posting a thumbnail image with a link. After all, the text that goes along with the image should explain what is being looked at, don't you think?

That way, we can all see the images, smaller though they may be, and then we can decide if our curiousity is sufficiently raised to cause us to click on the link for a close-up look-see.
lindenii, no where does it say people cant post images...if some rule was made about it, then I would understand. You cant expect people not to post images just because a few people's computers slow down. I dont see anyone else making a big deal about this other than you. If no one else cares that much than there is no point on making a big deal about it.
I agree with almost everyone.. keep posting the images. Some of them really make life interesting, like trying to figure out where they are on the world when he doesn't mention where they are.

Merry Christmas all.. hope you have a good one.

Shen, hope Santa brings you more snow :)

Again,

Set your preferences to not include images, and select the ones you would like to see.

That's what the preference is there for.
Regarding full sized images being posted on this blog.

Hopefully, Admin will see that the selfishness of some on this list is not the way to go.

At some point in the future, the number of people posting images will rise to the point that something will have to be done. They, Admin, are the ones who have to decide if it is worth having a selfish few slowdown the experience for others and lose membership and thus lose advertising exposure for WU.

It's about showing courtesy, pure and simple.

Show courtesy to those who are part of the 35% by posting thumbnail images in your posts or show total disregard for them by forgeing ahead, 'pedal to the metal' posting full images in your posts.

It's your call.

Wouldnt the blog be boring if there was justa bunch of words and links? The pics make things interesting.
631. V26R
Lindenii

This has to be a record for complaining about one subject

You started yesterday evening and you're still going strong today!!!

Take a break and complain about something else please!
456 - I find your images both fascinating and/or educational. I would much rather have them in the blog as it is a pain to have to keep jumping elsewhere. Thanks for all the great Weather information you post I learn heaps from it.
All of you complaining about having to wait for the images on the page to load just need to stop. If your too cheap to pay for dsl/cable, than just disable images from loading in your browser. I don't think there is a page out there that is dial-up friendly anymore. They are all pretty much loaded with graphics/flash or media of some sort.
lindenii, if you listen to everyone else, they all want 456 to keep posting images. Where do you find this 35% number at??? No one else is complaining but you. Its only the motion pictures on here that cause the most problems, not the still-pics.
USM, there is only one person complaining about it.

Like you have said, a number of people have suggested to set the image preferences.

Apparently that's to big of a problem and the one person that is complaining, keeps on complaining.
626. extreme236 4:21 PM GMT on December 24, 2007

lindenii, no where does it say people cant post images...if some rule was made about it, then I would understand. You cant expect people not to post images just because a few people's computers slow down. I dont see anyone else making a big deal about this other than you. If no one else cares that much than there is no point on making a big deal about it.


extreme, here is a quote from my post numbered 625

"...I am not saying stop posting images; doing so would make me just like them. I am saying that you should respect rights of others and do the right thing by posting a thumbnail image with a link. After all, the text that goes along with the image should explain what is being looked at, don't you think?"

Regardless, the ball is in Admins' court and we can ony wait and see what they decide, if anything, to do about the issue.
Now adays, its hard to find a dial-up friendly website...are we supposed to have every website change their ways because of people who have dial-up? lol no
Keep the pictures. I have cable and it takes seconds for the page to load. If you have all of the comments displayed at once than yes it will take longer for the page to load. If you set it to display 50 comments at a times with the newest first than you don't have to wait for the whole blog.
639. V26R
Honda, USMC
This guy has been complaining since yesterday evening when he jumped on 456 about his image
sizes

640. V26R
236 watch what his comeback will be for that
I already tried that route
Even going as far as to say that if he couldn't afford a car but had a horse, would
he want us all to ditch our cars and buy
horses!
Why are you only picking on W456 about it then? There are numerous other people who post images on here quite frequently. You say not to stop posting pics on here but how do you determine when it becomes too much?? Until I see other people complaining about it like crazy then I wont think that much of it. DSL and Cable is too easy to get now and not too expensive compared to dial-up.
Final Comment on this issue:

Lindenni...Admin is not going to do anything about it because they already have. PREFERENCES allow you to select whether or not you want to see images, and then that further allows you to select the images you want to see when they have one in the blog.

Why cant you just do this instead of ignoring the fact that others have suggested it?

I have to say that even though this is completely un-weather related, it does make for an interesting comment stream! LOL

Really though, there should be nothing more to say on this because it has become completely rediculous.
644. V26R
USMC don't go that route
You've seen what can happen
LOL@USM's comment.

So is it cold in anyone elses neck of the woods this morning?
Oh and Lindenii, I read you response to the WU mail I sent you. You were only able to use ACE as a determining factor in calling the season a bust. ACE is not the only factor or tool to use to determine if a season is a bust or not lol. I liked how you used the fact that Dean and Felix's damages were only "aftermath." Now if they would have hit the US and caused over 300 deaths and 5 billion in damages, I doubt you would say the same thing. It only takes one storm to make a season a bad one. If you read the NHC discription of the year, they say it was near average, not a bust or below average. Because they know ACE is not the only way to measure a hurricane season.
647. V26R
It was funny tho
USMC
648. V26R
Okay can someone Please Piss of Mom Nature
so we can have something intelligent to
discuss besides Image Size!
649. V26R
After All We all know SIze doesn't matter!
This is the closest to a bust season I could find, and even then, a category 3 hurricane moved inland over Texas causing a 2007USD 5 billion in damages.

Link
Good one V26...lol

I dont know that Mom Nature is pissed off, but she sure did a nice job of freezing us southerner's out this morning!
649. V26R 4:43 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
After All We all know SIze doesn't matter!


LOL
633. usmcweathr 4:28 PM GMT on December 24, 2007

...I don't think there is a page out there that is dial-up friendly anymore. They are all pretty much loaded with graphics/flash or media of some sort.


Interesing that you should say that. This entire WU website is written with slow dial-up access in mind. Notice how the left side of the screen is 95% text with little if any graphics?

How do I know this. Because I write code for web sites and my research into the best format is based on the data that is readily available. In addition to that part about 35% being on dial-up, over 40% still use 800X600 screens with 72 dpi. The programmer has to inform the person who has contracted with them, the in's and out's of various programming issues.

There are tons of people out there in the world who do not have access to cable, who have antiquated phone line that barely support 28Kbps much less 56Kbps. WU is between a rock and a hard place in this regard. Their advertisers expect a bang for their money and WU is compelled to make that bang is as big as possible. Hence the decision to write the site for the slower systems usch as dial-up.

Just take a look at the Please Visit Our Sponors area below this blog. Perfect size for thumbnails.
Well if they dont have access to cable then they can get DSL lol
655. V26R

"How do I know this. Because I write code for web sites and my research into the best format is based on the data that is readily available. In addition to that part about 35% being on dial-up, over 40% still use 800X600 screens with 72 dpi. The programmer has to inform the person who has contracted with them, the in's and out's of various programming issues."


Wait one second dude
Yesterday you stated that you work in the
professional photographic sector evualating photos now you write computer programs???
Which is it. Seening you have two professions
you should be able to afford a decent ISP connection!
656. V26R
Okay now I think that you're blowing smoke out of someplace down south, and I don't mean Alabama either!


If you haven't been on here since yesterday complaining about this I would wonder
But...

Dare I use the T word???
Hummmmmm
657. V26R
BTW if anyone in Alabama is offened, Please accept my apology
646. extreme236 4:38 PM GMT on December 24, 2007

Oh and Lindenii, I read you response to the WU mail I sent you.


extreme,

you have my permission to release the entire message I wrote to you. That way, everyone will see exactly what I wrote and be able to comment on it.
Ok Lindenii
Here is the message in its entirety. I guess we will have to see what everyone else thinks. And I have the answer to your question about why the storms were short lived. The enviromental conditions were not the best for some of these storms and it resulted in the storms being short lived. There may be more reasoning to why the storms were shortlived but for the most part it was because of enviromental conditions. Im sure you have heard about things being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

*********** Original message follows: ***********
Sent by extreme236 at: 1:08 PM GMT on December 21, 2007

I still dont understand how a season with 15 named storms and 2 landfalling category fives is a bust. Billions of dollars in damages occured and more than 400 people died. We saw the 9th strongest storm on record form, the fastest intensifying hurricane on record and the fastest intensification from TD to cat 1 hurricane on record for Humberto. How on earth doest that make the season a dud? Just because of ACE? ACE isnt the only thing the NHC uses to determine a season's activity. That only measures the duration. We had two cat 5's that equated to about 50 of the 70 ACE we had this season. The other storms were just short lived. Nonetheless, any season where people die and billions of damages are caused doesnt seem like a bust to me. If Dean would have hit the US, I dont think ANYBODY would call this season a bust. But anyway, nice having this discussion.
************

It all depends on how you want to look at a Hurricane season.

The way you just described it, it is more of a play by play profession basketball game commentary with stats and all that goes with it. As opposed to a deliberate analysis all that actually happened. The fact that there was a great big riot after the game has no bearing on how it was played. Damages and deaths being like that riot. It is all aftermath nothing more, nothing less.

Take the ACE as another example. In 2005, the two top Cat5 storms, Wilma and Emily, tallyed an ACE score of almost 71. When you subtract that score from the years total ACE, according to the scorce at Wikipedia, of 248, you get a remainder of 177. Dividing 177 by the remaining storms that year...25, we get an average ACE for each storm of 7.08. In 2007, the two top Cat5 storms, Dean and Feliz, had a combined ACE of 50.3 and subtracting that from the years total ACE of 68.1 you get a remainder of 17.8 ... By dividing that number by the remaining storms that year 12.. we get an average ACE of only 1.48 ... Your mention of the other 2007 storms being 'short lived'...The ACE proves you correct on that issue. Why aren't you asking 'WHY"?

Hence the word 'bust' to describe that year 2007.

I think the problem lies in the fact that our instrumentation is so much more sensitive that we blur the distinction between the world with the instrumentation and the world before the instrumentation. When our instrumentation was less developed, we did not name storms with the same time line as we do today. By that I mean that years ago, days might go by before a storm was named and today the instrumentation allows us to name it much earlier in the curve.

Having the ACE as a tool, we should see that simply counting the number of named storms is not a particularily accurate way to evaluate a Hurricane season. Nor is it really much more accurate by categorizing them ether. Using the ACE should cause us to want to know why there was such a big difference and whether or not our current weather models are in need of a serious revamping. I believe that they are.
Still, a season with all those records and notable storms isnt a complete bust.
663. beell
)
.
Ouch USMC that was too harsh IMO. I disagree with Lindenii on apparently many things, but I have to respect Lindenii's opinions and responses as he has the right to post his opinion. Isnt disagreeing on things what the country I live in (that country being the US and im sure many others here live in the US) built on? All throughout history there have been disagreements but thats what makes everyone so unique and interesting, is that everyone has different ideals and opinions on things.
655. V26R 4:48 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
"How do I know this. Because I write code for web sites and my research into the best format is based on the data that is readily available. In addition to that part about 35% being on dial-up, over 40% still use 800X600 screens with 72 dpi. The programmer has to inform the person who has contracted with them, the in's and out's of various programming issues."


Wait one second dude
Yesterday you stated that you work in the
professional photographic sector evualating photos now you write computer programs???
Which is it. Seening you have two professions
you should be able to afford a decent ISP connection!


Shows how little you know about web sites. Those pictures don't get on a web page by magic and they certainly don't get there without their impact being given serious thought. That evaluation includes determining size and resolution which is then compared to download time for the ultimate user, the internet surfer.

If you look back to another post of mine, you will find that I have both Cable and dial-up. I did not want to pay the outrageous fee of $95 per month at the office because they wanted to call it 'commercial' and that was ridiculous.

You will also note that I mentioned how I was surprised at how difficult it was to use the blog because of all the photos being placed in the main blog. It made me realize just how selfish some people are on this blog. Now I don't write a web site without testing it on a dial-up connection.

Someone had a silly comment complaining about having to waste half a second clicking on a thumbnail image being a horrific experience; yet wasting the time of a fellow blogger is perfectly okay.
Interesting discussion on Ice Sheet on ICESat site

Link
I really appreciate all of this. And I will not stop posting but I have to balance it with lindenii.

An excellent Greenland Article on current research - article dated August 2007

Link
456 - It's very nice of you to bend to the one of 100's on here that has a problem with the images.

That's very commendable of you. :-)
Regarding post #662. usmcweathr 4:59 PM GMT on December 24, 2007

Shame on you!!

That young man is in the middle of a glorious triumph and you have the audacity to use him to ridicule me?

I have finally learned what the word 'TROLL' really stands for..you and those like you who stoop to name calling and the use of other forms of ridicule to asuage your unhappiness.

May God bless that young boy as he moves through life and may the admin people remove your ridicule of him - post haste.
Surprisingly enough, I have to agree with Lindenii on that particular post...
670. hondaguy 5:21 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
456 - It's very nice of you to bend to the one of 100's on here that has a problem with the images.

That's very commendable of you. :-)


Absolutely correct, he is an honorable person, who has my utmost respect.

Thank you 456.
Afternoon all,

Back in for a few seconds. Guess what! I haven't looked my member settings page for so long, I didn't even REALIZE there was a setting for showing pictures!!!!

So Lin, the ADMIN did think about this before me . . . lol. Have you tried changing the setting? I need somebody to post a whole punch of pictures now so I can see how the setting works . . .

Mind u, I have DSL, but when the power is out, I'm forced to fall back on dialup. It would be cool to be able to cut down the imaging so I could get in and out of the blog faster.
BTW, to talk weather for a second, it's currently overcast w/ light rain here (Nassau, Bahamas).

I'm kinda curious as to what process is causing the precip, since last time I looked we were under an area of high pressure.
Baha,

Happy Christmas Eve!

I just tried it...sorry, no cigar.

I just ran the blog and there are plenty of 456 images to test and they all show up crystal clear. No, 456, I am not complaining.

It might be that they were referring to the acutual WunderPhotos that are placed on the sideline sometimes.

Or...are you suggesting that the setting goes into effect on the subsequent postings. That would go against all the stuff that they say when you unset a setting, everything goes back to full display mode.

FYI I am using Netscape 7.2
Very Cold Christmas Weather

This afternoon infrared imagery of the CONUS showed an abundant of cold air sitting over the the Nation. The first image shows the very cold air clearly picked up by infrared image.

The second image shows the culprits. A series of shortwave troughs which is bringing cold Canadian Air into the region. There is a shortwave over the Eastern Plains and NWestern Rockies.

The Third image is the result. Showing cold current temps.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us





Hi Baha - I loved your Bahamas celebration picture - you guys sure know how to party!!

A quick question for the USA bloggers. Is this an unusually intense Winter for you guys? - I can't beleive the number of storms that have clobbered the US in the past couple of weeks but I have only really seen it this winter because I started reading this blog.
Sydney - It is a little chilly for us in the USA, yes.

I'd say it's about an average winter for the south. We have had many days in the upper 70's with even some low 80's. In the beginning of December we set or tied some record highs.

I believe the northern US is having a slightly cooler winter than usual, but most everywhere is fairly close to normal.
676. lindenii 12:49 PM EST on December 24, 2007
Baha,

Happy Christmas Eve!

I just tried it...sorry, no cigar.


Hmmm. Looks like ur right about the no change. I really need to read the blog wiki to see just what that setting is supposed to impact. Also it might be a good idea after all to scoot over to Developer's blog and make a suggestion about an on-off switch for blog-insterted pictures.

Nevertheless, I don't feel it's fair to make 65 people have to click on thumbnails for every picture so that 35 people don't have to wait as long to load their pages. There has to be a better way to deal with this issue.
456,

Still very warm in the SE FL area, though. And the humidity seems much higher than usual. It's as if there's a barrier across the Everglades holding the truly cold weather back. A few Christmases back a post-Christmas cold snap had Miami DAYTIME temperatures in the upper 50s. Now THAT's cold . . . lol
Yr welcome, Syd. Only about 36 hours left before the start of the 2007 Boxing Day Junkanoo parade.

Syd, I wanted to ask what the Aussie record is on cyclones striking the coast during the Christmas season. I know that's pretty early for storm formation, but we do occasionally get storms during the latter half of June, which is about what Christmas time there would correspond to in our basin.
Thanks Hondaguy - I was originally born in Manchester England - maybe I have been living in a warmer climate for too long - I do remember digging my Dads car out of the driveway as a kid when it really snowed. The La Nina has finally produced some decent rain here in Australia - I was listening to a very happy farmer from Northwest NSW on the radio this morning who was saying he has received the first decent rain in 15 YEARS!!!
Snipped this bit from Wikipedia:

Miami has never recorded a triple-digit temperature; the highest temperature recorded was 98 °F (37 °C).[16]. The coldest temperature ever recorded in the city of Miami was 30 °F (-1 °C) on several occasions.[17] Miami has only once recorded snowfall, on January 20, 1977. . . .

Miami receives abundant rainfall, one of the highest among major U.S. cities. Most of this rainfall occurs from mid-May through early October. It receives annual rainfall of 58.6 inches (1488 mm),[19] whereas nearby Fort Lauderdale and Miami Beach receive 63.8 in (1621 mm) and 48.3 in (1227 mm), respectively, which demonstrates the high local variability in rainfall rates. Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30, although hurricanes can develop beyond those dates. The most likely time for Miami to be hit is during the peak of the Cape Verde season which is mid-August through the end of September.[20] Due to its location between two major bodies of water known for tropical activity, Miami is also statistically the most likely major city in the world to be struck by a hurricane, trailed closely by Nassau, Bahamas, and Havana, Cuba.


686. V26R
In Reference to your Post # 666

"Shows how little you know about web sites. Those pictures don't get on a web page by magic and they certainly don't get there without their impact being given serious thought. That evaluation includes determining size and resolution which is then compared to download time for the ultimate user, the internet surfer.

If you look back to another post of mine, you will find that I have both Cable and dial-up. I did not want to pay the outrageous fee of $95 per month at the office because they wanted to call it 'commercial' and that was ridiculous.

You will also note that I mentioned how I was surprised at how difficult it was to use the blog because of all the photos being placed in the main blog. It made me realize just how selfish some people are on this blog. Now I don't write a web site without testing it on a dial-up connection."


Lindenii
I never said that I know alot about computers
or Web sites, In fact if you ask anyone who knows me on here (or in person) they will say the exact opposite
And All you said in your earlier posts about how you cannot afford to pay for a decent
ISP connection at home so you use the
Decent ISP connection at work because you cannot afford or do not want to spend the extra money for it at home!
This is the second time I caught you in a lie
One word of advice before I end this and
just ignore you from here on out,
If you're going to lie,keep your own story straight or better off, Just don't lie, tell
the truth, You called USMC ( a guy who've I seen on here alot and respect for his posts)
a Troll, Seems to me that you are calling the kettle black and you are the troll

Over and Out

An English-born friend of mine has been going home every Christmas to visit in-laws, and she was telling me last week that it's hardly been cold at all in England the last 5-7 years or so.
Well Baha the most famous one is Cyclone Tracy which hit Darwin on Christmas Eve 1974 I think. It pretty well destroyed Darwin and is very famous in our history. You should checkout the track of this the way it navigated around the various land masses you would swear someone was driving the bloody thing!!! (Am I allowed to say 'bloody' on this blog? LOL)

Link
"That is what the stewpot said to the fire: 'At your age, licking my bottom!' But she was tickled just the same."

Wole Soyinka, The Lion and the Jewel
Syd,

Nobody much around here would know it's a swear word . . . LOL (well, the caymanites and other Commonwealthers might, but we won't make much of a noise about it . . .;o)
Baha,

How about this.

A setting in which 'ON' means all images are full size and 'OFF' which means thumbnails are active instead. And default is 'OFF". That way the visitors get the quick load and are encouraged to join making the advertisers very happy. Setting to 'ON' is only possible if a person is a member.

Best of both worlds.

Couple of lines of code should do the trick.

That way, those who take the time to process images will know that their work is still reaching everybody, even if some are thumbnails.
OH my!



I couldn't figure out what this was at first . . .
The following is an excerpt from here; Link

The entire Queensland coastline is open to tropical cyclones. Generally the more stronger destructive cyclones cross the Queensland coast between Cooktown and Rockhampton. The coast between Townsville and Mackay is particularly at risk because of its more NW - SE direction. The last destructive cyclone to cross the Queensland coast was Cyclone Aivu in April 1989 which crossed the coast south of Townsville near the towns of Ayr and Home Hill. Winds were close to 200 km/h ( 125 mph ).

Other famous Queensland cyclones have been Cyclone Athea which struck Townsville in December 1971 with winds near 200 km/h ( 125mph ). Athea brought with it a 3m ( 10ft ) storm surge, and caused $50 million worth of damage. Many Queensland cyclones are destructive not for their winds but for the large amount of rain that can accompany them. Cyclone Wanda in February 1974 was an example of this with floods in Brisbane and most of SE Queensland.

The strongest Australian cyclones have crossed Western Australia's NW coast. This coast is so sparsely populated that often cyclones which would cause massive destruction in settled areas, cross the coast here without much media fanfare. Could you imagine a Category 4 Hurricane crossing the US coast and being ignored by the media. Well it has happened here ! Only the extreme SW and southern coasts of Western Australia are cyclone free. The most at risk area is the section of coast from Broome to Shark Bay. In December 1975 Cyclone Joan crossed the Western Australian coast about 30 miles from Port Hedland, even so winds in Port Headland gusted to 212 kph ( 132 mph ). Damage was about $20 million. The highest ever recorded wind gust in Australia was associated with a cyclone in Australia's NW. This was recorded near Onslow with winds reaching 259 km/p ( 160 mph ).
694. V26R
Baha , were those Houses???
I just realize why I know the name "Cyclone Tracy". It was that really tiny storm, wasn't it? Just goes to prove that size really doesn't matter when it comes to devastation.

In fact, I'm starting to think there is some correlation between these high-end cat 4s / cat 5s and small size. It's as if the small radius makes the spin more pronounced.

I didn't realize it had hit Darwin on Christmas, though.
I should of said..cold weather only for the mid sections. Floida others along the South sits in the WAA quadrant of the shortwave.

WAA=Warm Air Advection.
697. V26R
456 anything new on that Storm thats supposed to form off the Carolinas?
Yep. Reminded me of Andrew in Homestead, and also of some pictures I have seen of Belize after Hattie and the 1933 (or was it 1936) 'canes.
697. V26R 6:30 PM GMT on December 24, 2007
456 anything new on that Storm thats supposed to form off the Carolinas?
Action: | Ignore User


I'm going to check the NAM and GFS to see if they are still in agreement.
700. V26R
Baha thats amazing

I've seen the destruction from Tornados here stateside and always (seriously) wondered
how the debris field stays clear of the
roads
Many times there will be bulldozers that
clear a path for Responding Rescue crews
but that photo looks as if the wind just cleared the path on its own!
The last destructive cyclone to cross the Queensland coast was Cyclone Aivu in April 1989 which crossed the coast south of Townsville near the towns of Ayr and Home Hill. Winds were close to 200 km/h ( 125 mph ).

That seems a little outdated (Cyclone Larry?). The strongest storm to hit Australia also hit just a month later with wind gusts up to 225 mph (180 mph 1 minute sustained winds per the JTWC).
The NAM is still onboard. Shows a deep cold core non frontal cyclone early in the phase then becomes deep cold core frontal later in the phase while deepening to in the 990s.

This must have been a doozy to forecast . . .

Good Afternoon everyone,,,,,,,,


I wanted to say "MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR" to everyone......

Another great Wunderground year......

Congratulations to Dr. Masters and all the people who contributed to this website. It is a honor to be affiliated with such professionals and with all the fellow amateur weather forecasters on here.......
The GFS shows a broader cyclone..with gale forece radius larger than the NAM.
Regarding your post #686. V26R 6:17 PM GMT on December 24, 2007

Earlier I posted the following:

"...556. lindenii 2:36 AM GMT on December 24, 2007

..."Were it not for cable in my area, I would be forced to use dial-up because DSL is not available. I am forced, however to use dial-up at my business. I am too cheap to pay $95 per month for commercial access which is the only other choice I have available."

Liar??

First sentence makes it clear that I do indeed have cable and since the second sentence says I have dail-up at work, the only other place that the 'CABLE' could be is at home.

Second sentence makes it quite clear that the dial-up is at work because I made the fiscal decision and chose a more reasonable access, through Netscape' which cost $9.95 which is a full $85.15 per month savings or a full $1021.85 yearly savings. BTW Cost of cable at home is $45 per month, half the 'commercial' rate at work. Which is why I did not go with it at work.

Perhaps the problem is with your reading skills, perhaps I need to write in fourth grade level words. In any case, that is a small problem in comparison to calling people names like you do ie. calling me a liar. Shame on you.

Looks like I have met my second TROLL in one day since learning what they look and smell like.

In the excerpt above it is mentioned that

"The strongest Australian cyclones have crossed Western Australia's NW coast. This coast is so sparsely populated ..."

There has been extensive development of Oil, Gas and Mining in this area now so if the season is as intense as forecast by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and the British TSR people then these assets and their workers will be at risk - but like the Oil Rigs in the gulf I know these companies tightly monitor the situation
709. V26R
WOW
Not much error for a big snow event for the Northeast
Local Forecast Offices aren't even talking this one up at all
Would have thought that they would make a passing mention of it someplace in their forecast discussions
Yes Michael you are exactly tight - that information was outdated - I have really only started my interest in Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones since the beginning of this US season just passed. I am only just beginning to learn about this stuff. Usually one post from any of the professionals on here can have me reading for weeks - LOL

I do remember Cyclone Larry from the news at the time and I have been to Innisfail but thats about it.
Make that $85.05 and $1020.60 respectively.
Can we have more of this:

Love and joy come to you,
And to you a wassail too,
And God bless you
And send you a happy new year,
And God send you a happy new year.


And less of the acrimonious debate, please?

It's Christmas eve, for goodness sake!
Here's a site on Aussie tropical weather. I haven't seen this before.
BTW, that page has a cyclone archive going back to 1981 for the Oz area.
Thanks Baha - I have not seen this site before either!! and BTW MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR - It is Christmas Day here - be seeing family later on today.
LOL get um Baha

I wish you a very Merry Christmas

and wishing you the best for the new year
See ya later everyone and may you all have a GREAT CHRISTMAS
Case studies of northern Australia cyclone records.

Function and purpose
This series was created as a collection of documents to give relatively easy access to the case histories of tropical cyclones in northern Australia. The collection and collation was put together by Mr. Kevin Murphy who worked for the Bureau of Meteorology in the 1980s. In 1984 he published “Big Blow Up North: A History of Tropical Cyclones in Australia’s Northern Territory,” published by the University Panning Authority in Darwin.

The collection includes negative and positive prints of satellite and radar weather maps (laserfax sapix), written summaries, track maps, track details, relevant synoptic reports, M.L.S analysis, upper air analysis, operational worksheets, operational watch and warning messages, Radiosonde data, F160 aerological diagrams, messages, rainfall maps with isohyets, anemograms, barograms, damage reports, post cyclone reports, and newspaper clippings.



What a pity much of this stuff is not available online. I guess the same could be said for much of the weather information for the Commonwealth Caribbean, though.
Merry Christmas, Syd!!!
peace and good will to all
Back atcha, lat.
Merry Christmas to All

and

To All a Good Night!
94B refuses to die. It is named 94B but in fact it's suppose to be called 94A, becuz its in the Arabian sea.

456, It looks like it rolled over there from the western coast of India.

This is the most activity in the Arabian Sea area (the last 16 mths) in years. . . .

Ah, the Christmas classics . . . LOL

I need some egg nog . . .
stagnant MJO over the Indian Ocean...
Merry Christmas to all.. with a special one to Storm, Shen and Lake for making this an interesting place to be.

Another special thanks to the kids fighting on here.. gives me something to read and snicker about :)

PS. 456, don't you dare stop posting pics on here.

Cancun

11 Days 20 Hours 37 Minutes
728. Orcasystems 9:23 PM GMT on December 24, 2007

PS. 456, don't you dare stop posting pics on here.


******************************

Here, here.

456 you are doing something good and stopping would only send the wrong message.

It is up to the gang at DevBlog to find a solution that does not silence you or anyone else for that matter.
Merry Christmas Qca and all the other fine folks on Wunderground. God bless you all.
Mainly good weather for Santa Tonight....

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A well define frontal boundary continues to push its way across the Eastern Gulf extending from Florida to the continental shelf just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Interestingly, most of cloudiness and showers lies within a swath of moisture across the Western Gulf from Northeastern Mexico, into Louisiana and the Southeast United States. This area is clearly enhanced by divergence ahead of a shortwave trough over the Plains. As for the initial frontal boundary, dry air is inhibiting any shower activity with only widely scattered clouds and isolated showers at the surface. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure dominates the area behind the front producing 5-10 knot northeast winds over the Gulf of Mexico west of 80W-90W.

A frontal boundary continues from Central Florida along the East Coastal Waters though 30N/78W 35N/70W. Yet again dry air is inhibiting much of the showers with this feature. Most of the moisture lies within the anticyclonic flow around a deep layered ridge over the Caribbean. Multilayered cloudiness with embedded showers goes from the Florida Panhandle, across the Southeast United States into the Atlantic north of 35N. As for the remainder of the Atlantic, dry air supported by surface riding is mainly exceptionally fair weather with light oceanic winds. Great weather for marine activities in this region tomorrow Christmas Day.

Computer models continue to show a developing East Coastal Waters Gale beginning as early as tomorrow. The 12Z GFS run shows the storm coming close to North Carolina early on the 26 then racing off to the northeast while deepening to reach near Newfoundland on the 27th. The NOGAPS also agree but with a less intense storm than the GFS. Further analyses at 500 mb showed the same shortwave trough discuss in the first paragraph will play a role in the genesis of this storm.


by W456

This image is the GFS Valid 18Z 26 DEC 2007



This image is the NAM Valid 18Z 26 DEC 2007

Hey 456,

Did you forward that info on to Santa?

Got grandkids that need to know he will be safe tonight. Otherwise....gonna have sad faces tomorrow. :-)
This explains the funny weather (the line across Lake Okeechobee and the "fuzzy" rain this afternoon.

Santa should enjoy the Caribbean tonight and most parts will be able to enjoy tonights full moon.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Dry and fine weather is over the Northwest, North-central and Northeast Caribbean due to dry air supported by an upper ridge. Locally light to moderate showers possible within patches of tradewind moisture. Across the South Caribbean, satellite imagery continue show southwesterly upper winds advecting cirrus showers from thunderstorms over the Southwestern Caribbean, Central America and South America. This pattern is typical in the off-season across the Caribbean. The outflow cirrus jet is extensive; extending south of 15N from 80W eastward across the Windward Isles and into the Tropical Atlantic ending near 35W. Trades will remain weak over the Central and Eastern Caribbean due to a weak surface pressure gradient. Trades will however remain breezy over the Northwest Caribbean where the pressure gradient is tightest between the front and the subtropical ridge. Nevertheless, Santa should enjoy his trip to our region tonight.

By W456
732. lindenii 7:09 PM AST on December 24, 2007 Hide this comment.
Hey 456,

Did you forward that info on to Santa?

Got grandkids that need to know he will be safe tonight. Otherwise....gonna have sad faces tomorrow. :-)


LOL....If i don't the NWS (North Pole Weather Service) will. Also I don't see anything stopping him tonight except Iraq...lol...They shot down the poor jolly fellow by mistake.
731. Weather456
Computer models continue to show a developing East Coastal Waters Gale beginning as early as tomorrow.
733. BahaHurican
This explains the funny weather (the line across Lake Okeechobee and the "fuzzy" rain this afternoon.

I thought it was the remnants of Pab-Low.
I thought it was the remnants of Pab-Low.

Pab-Low has long since move into the central ATL. The low is currently a weak 1015 mb in the Central ATL.

Anyways..see u guys later
737. Weather456
Pab-Low
I was just kidding. But, why am I not surprised you knew where it was? I was going to post a nice hi-res loop. Yeah, that's the ticket!
Merry Christmas To All My WunderGround Friends !!

Thank You For another Great Year of Scientific Reading and Keeping Us ALL Informed Dr. Masters.

This Blog is my Favorite of all The Internet
and is The Best Around.

I Hope Everyone has a Safe and Happy Holiday.
God Bless You All !!

~Tropical Nonsense
Thank you to everyone here, thank you for all the time spent, teaching and explaining.

A safe love-filled holiday for everyone.
Happy Holidays to the best bloggers in the world! May you be blessed by the spirit of the season and have a happy and prosperous New Year!

A special thanks to Dr. Masters and those who keep us all connected!

We have a severe winter storm right now here in Utah. 7"+ in less than 2 hours and it is still coming down. Winds were at about 30 mph, but have calmed quite a bit. My parents live up on a ridge in the mountains and said sustained winds were over 50 mph for over half an hour at their home! I love snow so bring it on!

For all those traveling during the holidays - take care and be safe!
Dr.Masters,
Thank you for the Greenland update, the great Amazon.com gift ideas and having so many iconic fans and bloggers who love to write, eat and be merry!
IN ASSOCIATION WITH JTWC INVEST 98S
Gale Warning FOR THE WESTERN AREA OF AUSTRALIA

SITUATION
At 0100UTC a monsoon trough was located near 10S and was near stationary.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 500nm north of the monsoon trough between 90E and 115E.

FORECAST
W/NW winds increasing to 25/35 knots after 251800UTC rough seas low to moderate
swell.



98S_INVEST - 10.0S 116.0E (0130z)
Ahhh man, we are going to get crapped on again on Vancouver Island. Another big nasty system coming over for Christmas.

Link

East Vancouver Island
3:39 PM PST Monday 24 December 2007
Wind warning for
East Vancouver Island continued

Southeasterly winds up to 100 km/h are expected over the Queen Charlottes and North Coast - coastal sections this evening and over Central Coast - coastal sections and North Vancouver Island overnight.

Southeasterly winds will rise to 50 to 70 km/h over West Vancouver Island overnight and over the other south coast regions Tuesday morning.

This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.



An intense pacific frontal system approaching the north coast this evening will move across the coast tonight through Tuesday afternoon. With the passage of the frontal system, strong southeasterly winds ahead of the front are expected to develop this evening over the north coast, overnight over the central coast and Tuesday morning over most south coast regions. Winds will abate Tuesday morning for the north and Tuesday afternoon for the south as the front moves away from the regions
Wow..I saw 98S coming.
Tropical Invest 98S

0000 UTC DEC 25 2007

Pattern Type: Excellent pre-depression curve bands.

Current Intensity: CI 1.5

Adjustments: Met agrees

Final Estimate: CI 1.5

Dvroak Trends:
0000 UTC DEC 25 2007

Santa's Update

Current Location:

Mansfield, Ohio, United States

You can track Santa tonight:

http://www.noradsanta.org/en/home.htm

Anyways....I'm calling it a night...see u till then.
I thanked weather 456 the other day for the satellite pics he has been posting.I think they are educational and worth every bit of space they take.
GulfcoastScotsman wrote:
But the GOSPEL ACORDING TO GORE and the Kyoto council of church elders found that sooooo not sexy to pick on those poor third world-ers. Besides...{{ most of them cannot read the inconveientnet truth and as it is such cannot understand english well enough to support the film at the box office.}}

That means those poor third worlders hear more truth from ALGORE than we do. ALGORE puts more CO2 into atmosphere flying around the world (in his Gulfstream learjet) trying push his socialist world government garbage than everybody on this blog put together. If you don't know anything about airplanes-Gulfstream Learjets are gas guzzlers. Do as Gore says, not as he does, right? He is smarter than us regular folk.


750. JLPR
Photobucket

Merry Christmas everyone and happy New Year!!!
=D
Latest CMC model for possible tropical cyclone Melanie in the Western Australia area this week.

Good Christmas Day to all!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
455 AM EST TUE DEC 25 2007


.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF ORIENTED NE-SW HAS BACKED
A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE E COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH APPROACH OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER LOUISIANA. SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL TROF WILL
BE SWEPT RAPIDLY EASTWARD NEXT 24 HOURS VIA 120KT SUBTROPICAL JET
WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
BY TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWER(S) CONTINUE TO MAKE IT ONSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES REACHING WELL THROUGH THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THIS RATHER GLOOMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS THIS CHRISTMAS. HAVE INDICATED HIGHEST POPS NE COASTAL
SECTIONS BUT WITH LOW CHANCES EXTENDING THROUGH INTERIOR TODAY...
THEN ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NE COASTAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AS
LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND LIFTS NE. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWERS HAVE UNDERCUT MAV MAX TEMPS AND HELD MAXES IN LOWER 70S
NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...OVERNIGHT MINS INTO WED RANGING FROM LOWER
50S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SE COAST.

WED-THU...STRONG LIFTING JET PATTERN OVER THE GOMEX/ERN SEABOARD
WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLASSIC COUPLED JET OVER THE SERN U.S. THE
STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE GENERATED BY THIS PATTERN WILL DEEPEN AN
H85-H50 SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHING THRU THE ARKLATEX...WHICH WILL
INDUCE A SFC LOW OUT OF THE WEAK INVERTED TROF OVER THE BAHAMAS BY
DAYBREAK WED. THE LIFTING JET PATTERN WILL THEN TRANSPORT THIS LOW
UP THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GEORGES BANK AS A CLASSIC
NOR`EASTER THRU THU NIGHT.

CENTRAL FL WILL FEEL THE INDIRECT EFFECTS OF THIS STORM AS IT RIDES
UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND KEEPS ITS AXIS SUPPRESSES OVER
CUBA AND THE FL STRAITS. LIGHT N/NWRLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THRU WED NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE ENE ON
THU AS THE LOW PULLS UP THE ERN SEABOARD.
During the remainder of the year I will be posting some of the most spectacular weather images taken this year:

Number 1: A super low in the South Pacific Taken November 9 2007.



Number 2: The eye of Hurricane Dean in August 2007.

enjoy the remainder of the day.....be back later
Merry Christmas to everyone. No White Christmas in Harrisburg, PA. Not sure about the end of the week and New Year. Depends on how cold it gets.
Merry Christmas Dr. M!!
It's a nice White Christmas for us in Denver :-)
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

Things are certainly becoming interesting. A strong 500 mb shortwave trough/low is centered over Eastern Louisiana at 31N/91W. This trough/low is producing a southwesterly flow over the Gulf Region with mid-upper level cloudiness and moisture extending from the Eastern Pacific Ocean across Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico. The moisture becomes deeper over the Northeast Gulf and the South-Eastern United States where scattered showers exist. The diffluent flow between the shortwave and deep-layered ridge over the Atlantic has begun to initialize a broad area of low pressure just east of Florida. This area will continue to become more define and deeper as it moves up the United States East Coast. The remainder of the forecast region is under the influence of high pressure and weak surface pressure gradient. Mainly fair to mostly cloudy skies and light winds.

There are clear indications of a well-define surface ridge over the Atlantic. Infrared imagery shows fair weather with shallow low level cloudiness embedded within 15-20 knot anticyclonic flow. Mid-upper level cloudiness and moisture continues in an anticyclonic fashion from the Southeast US into the Western Atlantic north of to 40W north of 35N.

by W456
Merry Christmas Dr. Masters!!!!!!

White Christmas today here on the west side of Michigan! Everything is so beautiful!
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Increase periods cloudiness and maybe showers possible over the Northwestern Caribbean and Northern Central America as the area continues to be invaded by patches of shallow moisture advected within the northeast wind flow. Thunderstorms continue to plague Southern Central America and parts of Northern South America. This activity is being caused by the ITCZ enhanced by increase inflow. Upper winds continue to drive a jet of cirriform moisture into the Caribbean Sea south of 15N...passing over the Windward Isles and into the Tropical Atlantic. Fair weather dominates elsewhere.

by W456
TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 30W....

The ITCZ is centered along 0/50W 3N/40W 3N/30W. Showers mainly found between 40W and 30W where mid-latitude flow continues interact with the ITCZ. A deep upper trough north of the area is enhancing additional showers across the area north of 10N from 40W to the Canary Islands. The surface Azores high is analyzed 1032 mb near 40N/30W. This high is producing a large area of moderate trades and mainly fair weather outside the shower activity.

by W456
A happy and safe christmas to all.
Invest-a-palooza in the southern hemisphere...guess the BOM was right about the monsoon trough spawning a bunch of possible things
Extreme 236 what was the most powerful tropical cyclone in the southern hemisphere?
The strongest cyclone ever observed in the Southern Hemisphere is Tropical Cyclone Monica
Is it possible to give the location,windspeed and pressure on that one?
Well it moved inland over the Northern Territory if I am correct. Its max 10min winds were 155mph and max 1min winds were 180mph...pressure was reported to be 905mbar
In the Australian area incase that wasnt clear
Dr.Masters,
Thank you for the amazing blogging present and my family loves the weather books and 456's posts thank you for the joy of weather.
Secular Fundamentalists And Their Hypocritical Ways

By Cal Thomas Published on 12/24/2007

One of the traits of a cult is its refusal to consider any evidence that might disprove the faith. And so it is doubtful the global warming cultists will be moved by 400 scientists, many of whom, according to the Washington Times, “are current or former members of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that shares the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Mr. Gore for publicizing a climate crisis.” In a report by Republican staff of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, these scientists cast doubt on a “scientific consensus” that global warming caused by humans endangers the planet.

The secular fundamentalists who believe in Al Gore as a prophet and global warming as a religious doctrine are being challenged by scientists and others who disbelieve and who think we ought to be spending more time on developing new technology and energy sources for the future and not preaching gloom, doom and retreat. Let them debate the issue. If they won't, we can only conclude that all they are spewing is hot air.

752. Weather456 11:46 AM GMT on December 25, 2007

Good Christmas Day to all!


Looks like your updates got to Santa.

Good job!!
Dr Masters and Staff,

Hope you are all having a wonderful and Merry Christmas! Thank you for all your work in keeping this website going for us all year; I thank you very much!!!

Gamma and family,

Christmas Glitter Graphics

glitter graphics

Christmas Glitter Graphics





Merry Christmas from our home to yours!
Love,
Gams & Poppy



And to all my friends who post here!

ditto! LOL

Merry Christmas!!!!
775. JLPR
hello? echoes lol
does someone know how to add a wunderphoto to my blog?
thanks to anyone that answer
=)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary for North Territory
Issued at 18:00 UTC (25Dec)
=====================================================
An area of convection (90P) located near 11.9S 129.5E or 65 NM northwest of Darwin, Australia. Animated infrared satellite imagery indicates a weak low level circulation center with poorly organized deep convection flaring near the center. The Darwin radar clearly shows convection rotating around the defined circulation just west of Bathurst Island. Surface observation near the low level circulation center indicates surface low pressure near 1005-1006 mb. The SSMIS and recent AMSU images depict consolidating but weak deep convection. Upper level analysis indicates a developing anticyclone over the low level circulation center with fair outflow aloft enhanced by troughing to the south.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1005mb. Based on the lack of significant covective banding as well as the position near land, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
778. JLPR
hey guys got some new wunderphotos
JLPR's Wunderphotos
check them out and rate them
=D
Thank you Extreme 236-merry christmas.
Merry Christmas hydrus
Australia remains on alert this week into the weekend


Bureau of Meteorology - Perth

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (26December)
================================
(1) Central South Indian Ocean

There are no significant tropical lows currently in the region. An active monsoon trough lies near 11S. A low is expected to form along the trough between 90E and 105E by Thursday and develop as it moves to the west. There is an inceasing chance of cyclone formation in the week.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POTENTIAL
====================================
Thursday: LOW
Friday: HIGH
Saturday: HIGH

Model Link

(2) Southeast Indian Ocean

Gale Warning in effect

At 12:00am UTC, a monsoon trough was located near 10S and was reported as nearly stationary.

Area Affected
Within 500 nautical miles north of the monsoon trough between 90E and 120E.

Forecast
West northwest winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. rough seas low to moderate swells. Squally showers and thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
==========================
An active monsoon trough lies near 10S. There are indications a low will form between 115-120E and develop as it slowly moves to the south from Thursday onward.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POTENTIAL
===================================
Thursday: Low
Friday: High
Saturday: High

Model Link

-----------------------------------------------

Bureau of Meteorology - Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (26December)
===========================================
The weather currently affecting the Top End is due to an active monsoonal flow

However, no tropical cyclone development is expected near the Northern Territory during this period.

-----------------------------------------------

Brisbane Bureau of Meteorology - Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (26December)
===============================
At the present time there are no tropical disturbances in the Coral Sea.

A low pressure system is expected to develop over the western Coral Sea within 180 nautical miles of 20S 153E during Thursday and then further intensify into Friday as it moves southeast.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POTENTIAL
=================================
Thursday: low
Friday: Moderate
Saturday: High

Model LINK
Our East Coast low has develop as expected.
Radar Image

Morning 456. I didn't expect for it to be raining this morning, though. It's pouring here, like a summer rain shower.

Plus the temps have cooled slightly.

At least the Junkanoo is just about over . . .
Merry Christmas Dr M -

Thanks so much for the summary of the AGU talks. Really interesting stuff, merits continued investigation.

Quick question:
why would you characterize the scientist who voted for option 'C' - as a 'brave soul'? He/she doesn't even disagree with the thesis that ice decline is occurring, only rate.

Is the 'group think' at AGU that bad? Seems as if a little bit of an environment of intimidation exists here (after all, one has to be 'brave' to express an informed opinion).

This doesn't reflect well upon AGU - an organization 'that advances, through unselfish cooperation in research, the understanding of Earth and space for the benefit of humanity.'

Hardly the free, open environment we need for scientific inquiry of these serious issues! LOL!
Whats left of the so called "Pab-Low" in the Eastern Subtropical Atlantic

GM to all,hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas thats if anyone is here.
Tropical Invest 98S

1230 UTC DEC 26 2007

Pattern Type: Curve band about 0.30 arc with a small area of intense convection.

Current Intensity: CI 1.5

Adjustments: None

Final Estimate: CI 1.5

Dvroak Trends:
0000 UTC DEC 25 2007 - CI 1.5
1230 UTC DEC 26 2007 - Ci 1.5




Wiki South Pacific Active Systems

Tropical Disturbance 06F mentioned by RMSC Nadi
Curved bands continue to become more define with 98S

The center of the storm just passed station CLKN7



Pier Cam at Nags Head, North Carolina

Ocean City Beach, Maryland