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New tropical wave has potential to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:17 PM GMT on July 28, 2006

A new area of concern has developed near 8N 38W, about 1500 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Residents of the islands will want to keep a close watch on this tropical wave over the next few days, as it has the potential to develop into a tropical storm. The tropical wave has a concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms, some upper level outflow, and the beginnings of a surface circulation. The latest pass of the QuikSCAT satellite at 4:44am EDT today showed a strong wind shift associated with the wave, but not a closed circulation at the surface. Winds in the strongest thunderstorms were about 30-35 mph, with one heavy squall ahead of the wave creating winds of up to 50 knots (57 mph).


Figure 1. QuikSCAT winds from 4:44am EDT Fri Jul 28. The winds are plotted using the standard station model. The black wind barbs mark where it is raining. Only the colored wind barbs are reliable. Black ones are unreliable, as rain contaminates the measurement of wind by the QuikSCAT satellite.

The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and this shear is forecast to gradually weaken over the next two days, which may allow the wave to organize into a tropical depression. This organization will be slowed by the wave's close proximity to the Equator. Disturbances south of about 10 degrees north latitude frequently have trouble organizing, since they can't leverage the Earth's spin much to help them develop their own circulation. The forecast track of the system (Figure 2) takes it west at about 20 mph through Sunday, then curves it more to the west-northwest. Some very dry air laden with African dust lies to the north, so this may act to inhibit development. Once the wave nears the islands, some significant wind shear may affect it, but it is too early to be confident of this forecast.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Tropical wave over the Bahamas and central Caribbean
A tropical wave over the southeastern Bahama Islands extends south through the central Caribbean to Columbia. This wave is moving west-northwest at 20-25 mph, and is not expected to develop today or Saturday due to wind shear of 20 knots. The wave should reach the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, where wind shear will be marginal for development.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Dan187
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg">
1004. Patrap
..Jp when I got to Memphis Sept 16th...I had lost about 16-18 lbs...but man..those Black Angus beef rib-eyes really put the weight back quick...I couldnt turn left or right without someone sticking some ribs or Pork chops..felt like Santa with Missus Claus up my gazoo..Memphis was really good to me & my family..Ill never forget the good things they did for us..and many others....
1005. SLU
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
1008. Patrap
...99L may just putter along until she makes it to greener pastures...
that had to be a productive team, you play on espn, cbs or privately?
I'm going to have a hard time believing a straight westward motion will allow a TD to form in the next two days...by then the thing will be in Guyana!
1011. Patrap
...they still beat LSU..man that was one good college football game...Tennesee Vols tough as the tigers
1013. Patrap
...Crab races 2pm @ Grand Isle tarpon Rodeo...
i think they think it will go north once it hits french guiana and form more in the dip above brazil
1015. Patrap
..G night all.. have to get up early yo meet the Fishes Down La 1 to Grand Isle....
espn.com has a pretty cool setup, you can play for free and the java draft is cool, you can also do a mock draft where you just do a draft, not to sound like im selling it lol
1019. SLU
yeh JP .. it means that they believe that a TD will form tomorrow cuz the convection is already increasing
ya i usually draft 3 as early as possible and 3 sometime in september
Convection is not on the increase yet. Cloud tops are warmer now. Wait till around 3amEDT...then we'll see about some convection.
how much is the buy-in?
id be down, i dont have a yahoo account though, would i need to make one?
By the looks of it, He?She? aint givin up the ghost yet. See what happens overnight. Possible low shear commin up next 30-40 hr also faviourable SST's.
alright let me get on that real quick
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
Hi, I've been following this site for a number of weeks now...find it real interesting...lost my home and my new home I was to move into September 2nd when GOD huffed and puffed and blew my hurricane proof homes down in Katrina...now, I must admit...for the first time in my life...I am real scared of bad weather...My home I was living in had survived Hurricane Camille...and I built my new one a lot stronger...had I moved into it a week earlier...well, I would not have left and would no longer be here...would not have left anyway, but there were no birds on my pier on Sat before the storm, so I loaded up my kids and left too.
ajcamsmom...We're glad you are here and still with us in general.
It seems to me that 99L is getter better
jp my handle is KansasCityChiefs07
Thanks, me too...wish I could move back to the Coast though....
456,
As we sleep the giant awakes :)
See what tommorow brings...
Jim Cantore says 99L is moving too fast to develop, and feels this trend may continue.....
Weather456...Really? I don't see it right now.
Is there a way to get new comments to post to your computer without having to reload the page all the time?
Guys I have a strong feeling 99L will be upgraded to TD 03 soon, the NHC sounds confident with the persisting shower activity. there might be a close circulation after all, and it might be more west than oringinally thought. That beeing said, chances of 99L, has been raised to 30%....
I just saw Cantore. And he's correct.
Weather456...I don't want a link....is that your prediction on the % or the NHC?
That looks better than the last one.
Rand, just my chances of development, and what the NHC says....
Looks like NHC is more confident w/ development over next 36 hours after this last outlook...

Weather456...Gotcha.
wow this blog been hiting 1,000post this about evere night and toniht keep up the good work
i think circulation is around 45W 8N but i havent looked at a loop for a couple hours
Hey everyone...someone mentioned awhile ago that someone needs to make a kind of tutorial blog on how to use features in this blog...so I'm working on it. I'm publishing articles in my blog and will post when I'm done...hope it'll be useful!
Until, I see it fall apart the TWC can say what they want.I havent relied on them 100% in the past, I dont intend to in the future. That goes double for Accuweather.
Looking at the Central Atlantic AVN IR, looks like some pretty distinctive banding feature is forming to the southeast of the circulation.
i havent gotten an email yet
does this thing have any chance of going to south florida
Steering Currents show no slowing down.....
I think by 51W it should start making its shift northward
The only thing that could go north is if something happens to spin-off in that direction. A likely scenario.
yes i would like to know how to update with msgs w/o refreshing my screen also, anyone know?
are u saying its going to turn north before reaching florida?
all signed up, im the Kansas City Johnsons lol
It can't be done, this isn't a live update blog..
I mean a blog that auto-refreshes when someone posts a comment..

1073. Raylog
Hello all. I read this blog every day. Always good for a laugh or 2 and full of information for a non-weather person like myself.

I hope none of these darn things make it to the Gulf. I am on the TX/LA border and I am not looking forward to a repeat of Rita or worse...... But I am glued to what you all are saying!!!
ya we're all set, sunday at 7
thank you for the invite
99L is only making about 500 miles per day at present speed. Ya gotta do the math! This thing is so far from FL right now it is completely out of the picture.
thanks HGW
Does anyone else think that the center is further west.....??
Raylog...Glad to have you here. Imagine how 456 feels. He's out there in the islands!
Hi guys,
New here! I have been a hurricane case manager since Katrina, and have always been weather junkie. I am no expert, just find it interesting. In my job field though we have to always be prepared, and keep an eye to the sky. You guys are the best thanks for keeping us informed all the time. Keep up the great work. :)
1083. 147257
456 which island are u?
If this blog auto refreshed every time somebody posted a comment, it would be impossible to read or post on it.
147257, Saint Kitts
1086. A4Guy
Any tips for a total novice on how to read the model maps on the FSU site? I know people spend years in school learning how to read them, but are there any easy-to-interpret maps that are used to develop the forecast track in the graphic posted above?
Thanks!
okay cool jp, i think the center is sittin right around 45w, 456, where does everybody else see it?
456....I thought about the center being west. But I can't see it if it is. I'm really leaning towards a split scenario here with the eastern part carrying on west.
you're welcome
what type of maps are you talking about?
I think the center is somewhere in the Western blob....
1093. 147257
must be nice there i'm on curacao ;) happily its more south =)
that where im seein it jp
what about the wave near the bahamas, can that develop? and if it does where is it going
1096. Raylog
Yea Rand, I seen 456 talking about that yesterday I believe. I can't imagine that.
I would be a neverous wreck!
hurricaneman23...No. That wave is oppressed by an ULL and whatever is left will move out west.
maybe we'll see it rear its ugly head in the hours to come
Could be a factor in the Gulf, but right now not lookin so good.

Raylog...Yes. He is on the front line of everything right now. I know everyone worries about their own backyard ....but everybody....you need to remember that no matter how bad you have had it....someone else might be in harm's way. So just don't get jittery till you have reason to and support those that are in it now!
Good evening all! Anyone have any good link to a lightning detector?


this is where i think it it is....
Weather456...That would be a likely place...but if it is future development is real iffy. You know this routine. If this crumbles in the next 12-24 another center can form within whatever is left.
Okay! It's officially started! I've published my first article for using wunderground.com blogs...it's about adding pictures to entries... so if you need to learn that check it out or just stop by every once and awhile to see more tutorials when posted. Hope everyone finds this useful!

My blog is:
wunderground.com Blogs Tutorials
just google a lightning strike counter and you should have some luck, im not sure of any specifically cept for accuweather on my cell phone, maybe accuweather.com would have it too?
Posted By: 147257 at 11:24 PM AST on July 28, 2006.
must be nice there i'm on curacao ;) happily its more south =)


Yep. its nice, cant get any better than here....
kylejourdan2006...Probably would be a great idea to remove how to post photos. Way too many on here already. Administration doesn't approve of basic photos unless absolutely specific to discussion. Like what 456 just posted.
ya thats a good call on that one. This blog could get steered away from its intentions real quick.
Lot of people on dial-up in here. Get the point?
all we need is an utter bombardment of every past hurricane picture everyone has in their libraries.
Someone posted a photo of Ronald Mcdonald in here yesterday! There's a weather topic!
Thanks Story. Only one I can find is this one out of ECU in Greenville (my town actually) and it's not so user friendly...

It's nice when someone takes the time to acknowledge a question :)

Floodie
1118. aquak9
rain-drool! good to see ya, as well as everyone else. Yeah lots of folks simply don't have access to highspeed. Thanks for what you said.
Randrewl...I'm not telling people to post pictures...and I understand that there may be a lot of dial-up users, but sometimes people need to post an important picture. But, I'll update it and tell people to not post so many pictures all the time.
aquak9....You're up early?
1121. MZT
99L does seem to be shrinking and growing weaker on the loops. Of course, small storms always look terrible right about midnight.

We'll just have to see how strong a comeback it makes tomorrow morning.
lol now a Ronald McDonald picture is just funny im sorry i missed that
1124. jus991
ladies and gentlemen we have td 3....not another one!...it should be chris shortley
No, the center is in the easternmost cluster of storms- there is a broad circulation under that convection. At 42W 9N. Just look at a loop and youll see.
1126. jus991
a cape-verde storm
kylejourdan2006...Just teach everybody how to post a link....everything works faster that way and then you have a choice to view it or not. I have all the satellite shots I can handle on my own puter. Unless it is point specific...link it!
1128. aquak9
hello also to floodzone! Late? early? I don't even know what time it is anymore...

looking for a lightning stike site? I have a great one at work, can't remember it now...but it seems like I might've gotten it thru the division of forestry site when florida was having so much trouble with wildfires. Not much help, sorry...
the end that is getting closer to the lower shear is starting to build

Regarding the center of Invest 99L, here is where I think it is:

MichaelSTL...Appreciate that thumbnail and the post.
1134. aquak9
jus...think you're a little ahead of things, just my opinion, tho....TD status we may see within the next 18-24 hours...but I think Chris is at least 36 hours away. But I'm going by what NHC will say...you never know, you might be right.
Randrewl, do you know how to post pictures? If you do, imagine if you didn't...wouldn't you kind of want to learn to? Some other people might be wanting to learn, so I'm just helping them. Plus, I'm posting other stuff so it's not all about posting pictures. Now, if everyone starts posting pictures, I'll take the entry off, but I'm just trying to help.
1136. ricderr
GOOD EVENING FOLKS....
jus...sounds like last nights comments....you forgot...where is it gonna hit florida though
If it does not pull away from the lower lats...this is all there will be...so I hope this Puppy keeps heading west and obliterates.
the center was at 40w 8n this morning, its at about 45w 8n right now
ricderr....LOL! It's going to hit Jensen Beach....dead on!
Hello aqua! I think I stumbled upon that Florida site (think it's a 300 mile radius around Tampa).

If I get frustrated enough, I may have to go back to school and get my meteoro degree so I can have access to real-time data :)

1141. ricderr
kyle......pull the pic plug please...
Posted By: jus991 at 11:45 PM AST on July 28, 2006.
ladies and gentlemen we have td 3....not another one!...it should be chris shortley


when did that occur?
1143. aquak9
still way too close to get any good spin or major visual organization yet...but give it another 8-19 degrees north, then hmmmmm.......
1145. ricderr
can i ride it out at your house?
i think Chris will be official between 3pm-5pm tomorrow, this thing isnt going anywhere
Rock and roll, hoochie koo... Lordy mama, light my fuse (light my fuse)

Good evening ricderr!!
This wave looks anemic right now. Worst part of the day.
ohhok, Rand....
1152. ricderr
you know...this is the easy part.....wife informed me today...that insurance..has finally settled on paying us the remainder we're do from Wilma....once it hits..it takes awhile to get over it
once it gets over the caribbean whats gonna stop it from growing?
1155. ricderr
hey there flood...nice song
By early Sunday at this lat and with the forward speed that is basically creating even more shear....there will be nothing left.
ya, but i think if it was gonna die it wouldve already done so, but we'll see, the unpredictability is what makes this exciting
Um, no. It is getting better organized as we speak. Curvature is increasing, and circulation is closing off. Look at 42W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
1162. ricderr
ummm...winter.....where in that loop did you see that.....
Good Evening all!!!
I can't say that it will be ripped apart it has survived lots of shear and no other wave has done that this season at least not like this one...
This is from accuweather: "So, we might have two features to worry about early next week. One will be over the northern Bahamas and the other just east of the Lesser Antilles. "
the eastern part has yet to enter the wrath of the shear though
Whoa! u can really see the rotation with 99L!
jphurricane2006....One of the computer models had this wave busting up around South America earlier today and I'm not looking it up this late. That is how I feel right now...
1170. ricderr
jp...i see what you're talking about...last frame..shows mighty strong shear....i think the assessment is wishful thinking
I don't surf Accuweather.
the shear starts at about 45W and ends at 50W
1174. Alec
I chase canes in a boat!LOL
SmileyCentral.com
1175. ricderr
good night boys and girls.......early morning tomorrow followed by a flight home and 4 days with momma....enjoy the weather
i dont think it is
look how as it approaches 50W it intensifies
What shear? Do you not see the storms forming on the east side of the circulation as well?
I'm now in agreement with 456. Whatever center there is is under the eastern edge. I still see a split coming up. This would be good news. Need to keep the center way south.
look at all that emptiness near 45W, thats where a pocket of 20-30knots is right now
jphurricane2006...That's right. But at least I know the eastern edge is more south than the rest right now. Another center can always pick up and carry on.
actually you are right, the shear is moving with the storm
I know this is not 99L... but look just off the coast of africa, NE of the Cape Verdes. There is a little circulation with a blowup of convection. Just interesting...

Link
jphurricane2006...When I saw that convection blast off to the east earlier tonight it got me going on the break-up. There is some circulation to the west but the center is under the eastern convection.
Dont get me wrong, it has no chance.
Added a new article to my tutorial blog: Basic Rules of Etiquette when blogging. If you know more, just post them and it will be appreciated! Thanks in advance for any help!

wunderground.com Blog Tutorials
Sorry...got my east and west backwards....it's late. Hope you know what I meant.
im not too sure its that far east jp
Posted By: StoryOfTheHurricane at 12:22 AM AST on July 29, 2006.
actually you are right, the shear is moving with the storm


That is what I'm saying, the 30knots of shear is moving west with the storm, leaving it in 20knots of shear. 99L woould of been shreded by now as that shear was located last night where 99L is.
And no, that little thing is not in a better environment, do you see how badly its being sheared?
The west side is the center....east side is the old circulation. Boy it is late!
all most 1200 + post
Posted By: winter123 at 12:26 AM AST on July 29, 2006.
And no, that little thing is not in a better environment, do you see how badly its being sheared?


Run that by me again, becuz I'm seeing diffrently.
interesting
The east side has the low level center, new popcorn storms are forming around it.
ok gotcha. But something so small has no chance. (talking about the blowup east of the Cape verdes)
Here's an image of the shear affecting the system:

Just because something might look like a duck and swim like a duck....if it doesn't quack....it ain't a duck!
Ya I see jp and agree w/ you, just wanted to show anyone who might not be understanding.

-------------------------
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According to the shear tendency, shear has increased by as much as 20 kts in the past 24 hours ahead of 99L.
Randrewl- didnt Joe Bastardi say that about that unnamed Tropical storm south of Nova scotia?

Anyways, The circulation of 99L is as 42.5W 9N, which is in the 10. That 30 shear should continue to move west, as it is the outflow of the storm associated with the ITCZ. The circulation is a bit north of the ITCZ axis.
I just hope we're all right and it blows itself upon impact with SA!
winter123...I would have no idea what Bastardi says. This scenario with 99 is fairly unique right now. Lot of factors at play. One of which is an unseen and not observable factor.
The western convection between 45W and 50W is nothing but ITCZ convergence. There is neither a surface nor mid level circulation there. At about 8.5N and 42.5W is about where the center of a pretty decent mid level circulation is. If there is ever going to be a closed surface circulation that is also where it will be, under the mid level one. Right now there is no real deep convection near the mid level center, but there is an increasing amount of scattered moderate stuff. It looks to me like there is only about 10 kts of shear near the center of mid level rotation.
Exactly what I think Hawkeye!
1219. theBlur
Nope, IMHO Invest 99L is a dud. Going into either French Guiana or Surinam. Same with the system south of Hispanola, what was it, 98L? It's energy is being sucked to the NE by the Bermuda High. Look at the 24-hour WV loop and see if you don't draw my conclusion.
Blur- Link, please? I have no idea where to find a 24 hour loop.
Yeah....I considered the convergence issue. Can't agree. Just too large an issue for that to be true. I don't believe I have heard anyone here tonight even mention a surface anything.
Yes, even now it appears it is throwing its energy up to 10N. Speed up the loop to see what I mean.
And it only needs to get to 12N to avoid SA.
Randrewl- it definitely looks like it is wrapping up a surface low.
That low shown on the SURFACE analysis is in the CORRECT place.
Yes, that is the general rule of thumb. This should head a bit north of west.
I think this will be a TD by 11PM AST tomorrow. It's definitely wrapping up.
Pressure is 1009. Way too soon to tell if there is a reflection at the surface. I'll have to wait another four hours. I don't see what I'm looking for yet. I can't make a call just based on some kind of spin.
you think it will get to the caribbean?
I'll let y'all solve this equatorial dilemma. I'm off to bed and have no intention of even thinking about this until I wake up.
The pressure and winds have remained at 20 kts and 1009 mb for its entire existance as an invest; I am not sure how they determine the pressure without recon or nearby buoys (satellite signature?).
Hmmm... didn't go to the right page; click on Prev at the top to see a list of all archived images; it shows the pressure and winds for every image.
Defintely. I think it will be a TD, if not TS before it makes it to the Carib.

Well, this storm is a bit of an interesting anomaly in the ITCZ. It looks like the ITCZ extends west from that little sliver country inside of the other one (forget the name) over to the "circulation." There is a "kink" in the ITCZ, right where the storm is, where it extens south and then back to the WNW. That is the curvature you see on satellite.

You see that there is the eastern cluster, which is the "circulation center," and then there is a cluster to the SOUTH of it, which is the ITCZ axis going south. If you look closely on the loop, you see that the circulation to the north is actually moving FASTER than the convection to the south.

Eventually the circulation should break off from the ITCZ altogether, and at that point it will be "closed". And shortly after declared a TD. Probably by this time tomorrow.

That is my interpretation of the situation with 99L. Any thoughts?
Is that a hint of green in that middle blob?

its french guiana
This post is about as dead on it as you're going to get. I can't sleep without giving credit here. So I did and thanks Hawkeye.



Posted By: Hawkeyewx at 11:29 PM CDT on July 28, 2006.
The western convection between 45W and 50W is nothing but ITCZ convergence. There is neither a surface nor mid level circulation there. At about 8.5N and 42.5W is about where the center of a pretty decent mid level circulation is. If there is ever going to be a closed surface circulation that is also where it will be, under the mid level one. Right now there is no real deep convection near the mid level center, but there is an increasing amount of scattered moderate stuff. It looks to me like there is only about 10 kts of shear near the center of mid level rotation.
No, did you read what I wrote? That "hint of green" is NOT the circulation. I REPEAT: NOT the circulation!

The circulation center is within that ring of coulds at about 42.5W 10N.

LOOP
i never said anything about circulation, all im talking about is intensifying, take it easy dude go to bed you're getting grumpy
What I was saying is that is not 99L. That is the ITCZ. As Hawkeye also said. Sorry if it sounded rude, I was just trying to make a point.
its all good
and im pretty sure that is a hint of green in that middle red blob there, i could be wrong
Is it this afternoon yet? I dont feel like sleeping, because as soon as I get up, I'll be back in this heated discussion (probably about a new blog entry) and then go to work.
For the first time TAFB shows possible Cyclone Formation....

Tropical Cyclone Formation Graphic.
Hey jp whats up? I went to watch Miami Vice with my girl.Let me look at some Satellite imagery and i'll get back to you.
Wow, finally someone else is taking notice.

If you speed up the floater loop, you can actually see the curvature of this thing increasing- it's cool to look at. :)
Here is a rough illustration of what is going on with 99L.

---

Red line = the ITCZ, which now has a kink in it thanks to 99L

Green arrows = show the surge of trade winds on either side of 99L

Blue arrow = shows roughly where the mid level circulation is and where any future surface circulation would develop

Purple arrow = shows the direction of movement of any tropical cyclone that tries to develop and break off from the ITCZ

HELLO ALL! Illl make my SWAG at this one, just like all the other amy's do. Mother nature is going to do what she wants and then we'll see. Kinda looking like Ivan to me though, started around 7N and moved in... thoughts? If it gets into the gulf all bets are off, I think.
if that does happen it will be crazy to see
the gulf has got something else coming sooner
Thanks for the pic. It's basically a visual representation of what I posted on the previous page:


Well, this storm is a bit of an interesting anomaly in the ITCZ. It looks like the ITCZ extends west from that little sliver country inside of the other one (forget the name) over to the "circulation." There is a "kink" in the ITCZ, right where the storm is, where it extens south and then back to the WNW. That is the curvature you see on satellite.

You see that there is the eastern cluster, which is the "circulation center," and then there is a cluster to the SOUTH of it, which is the ITCZ axis going south. If you look closely on the loop, you see that the circulation to the north is actually moving FASTER than the convection to the south.

Eventually the circulation should break off from the ITCZ altogether, and at that point it will be "closed". And shortly after declared a TD. Probably by this time tomorrow.

That is my interpretation of the situation with 99L. Any thoughts?
1261. theBlur
Winter -

I use my own program, which I feed with data from MSFC. But you can also look at the RAMSDIS views (when they work).

And, Hawkeye, thanks for the interpretation. I knew it had to be something like a mesoscale feature that was causing the convection, but now that you point out the kink in the ITCZ, it makes sense.
Before i get to my thoughts real quick on 99L.

Guys The MJO is in the gulf region now... not even in the atlantic yet... the green represents upward motion... or more favorable conditions for convection to increase in the atlantic.
at this point I'm looking for a florida hit, at some stage. My dice are rolling pretty crazy though LMAO. Where are the steering currents gonna put this thing?
1264. tejdog1
Is there a place I can go to change the times on the boards to EST? Right now they show GMT time, thanks :)

PS: What's that blob in the extreme southern Carribbean? Near Panama?
warren madden just downplayed this thing. hes saying its less likely to form now
well i hop you all have fun talking in tell you hit post 2,000 then this blog would be done with and i dont not if DR M will be back for a update this week end we are up to 1260 post
Thanks Blur, when you look at the full atlantic WV loop from the RAMSDIS site, it does not look promising for this at all. It looks like it is being devoured by the dry air...
Select Time Zone in the left column of the forum blog
But it looks promising on the IR. So I dunno.
what does the 205 discussion say?
warren madden just downplayed this thing. hes saying its less likely to form now

99L still has potential, but it has to take advantage of the diurnal max to increase its surface organization. The scattered bits of moderate convection popping up around the mid level circulation are not enough to make it happen. It will take sustained deep and focused convection. If we don't get that tonight or tomorrow night, 99L is in trouble.
hurricaneman23- Yeah, weather channel had some BS on earlier too. Jim Cantore said there was "too much shear" and "moving too fast," and he pushed Jeff Goodlow juggling to illustrate "shear".

While it was very entertaining, the Circulation is in low shear. It's main competitor would be drier air just to the north.
Also, the 205 discussion isnt up yet. That means they are still analyzing this complex storm.
What I'd like to know is why shear has played such a role this year and not last. We've had high temps in all the areas that bred storms last year, but shear has killed everything that had a chance this year. What gives?
copy and paste it when its up would ya?
"ITCZ 13N16W 14N24W 10N39W 8N44W 7N50W 8N61W"

This is the confirmation on the "kink in the ITCZ" theory. According to this, the Low is just NW of the ITCZ, I think.
if u had to place a bet, would u say its going to become a td or die out?
They also take note of that interesting little low east of the Cape Verdes.

"SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CLUSTERS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W AND
20W MAY ACCOMPANY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. CYCLONIC FLOW AT SOME
LEVEL IS APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. "
if u had to place a bet, would u say its going to become a td or die out?

I'd have to give it a 30-40% chance to become a depression. It still has a lot of work to do.
You cant "30-40% chance" a bet. It's all or nothing.

I say TD. Probably just before the islands.
this thing isnt gonna do anything until this evening or tomorrow, if at all
im still sayin it forms too
True, I guess it hasnt changed in structure much in the last 6 hours. I guess I'll sleep and check back in the afternoon, and again in the evening.
1289. theBlur
Winter - I agree IR looks good, but with convection being eaten up at mid-levels, the WV is your best (in my opinion) indication of the storm potential. Should the shear diminish, it could be anyone's guess, but right now, I really do think this system is headed to Surinam or Guyana. It would be interesting, though, to see if this one becomes like Ineke in the Pacific (hit Hawaii back in the 90's after crossing the globe as an African tropical wave).

I trust WV views because if the storm cannot transfer energe up into the high atmosphere, it probably cannot build into a worrisome storm.

Again, IMHO.
Guys this is definately better organized than yesterday, in terms of a low level structure...it just lacks convection right now.
Also The blob at 9N and 43W is showing signs of breaking away and moving WNW instead of due west and this may be the start of it becoming its own free system.Also just checked Dvarak estimates and they are still too weak.That's about it on my thoughts for now iam off to bed.


Good night....Be back tomorow. Adrian
Do you have a link to a storm summary of some sort (say, Wikipedia) of Ineke? I'd like to read more abou that. I searched, but found nothing.
winter, do a wikipedia search for "iniki"
Here it is!

You spelled it wrong...
theBlur spelled it wrong, I mean
I find it interesting that it was the wave that followed andrew that spawned Iniki. A Cape verde wave surviving into the E Pac and developing? That seems like a once in a milenium occurance to me.
And on that note I bid you all ado.

If anyones bored, take a look at the midlevel low east of the cape verdes. Hit animate at the top. It's being sheared soooo badly, and yet it has consistant convection. I don't expect development, but at the same time, I can't believe something like this exists.

And I'm going too. Will be back tomorrow around 1PM, probably on a new blog post!
Hey GRDRATNAVARRE and everyone else,

What I'd like to know is why shear has played such a role this year and not last. We've had high temps in all the areas that bred storms last year, but shear has killed everything that had a chance this year. What gives?

I just wanted to drop in and say "hello" to everyone, and to answer this question real quick.:) Although wind shear is a result of many different atmospheric factors, none are more significant than the ENSO cycles. That being said, 2005 had declining ENSO figures as can be seen in this chart. As you can see, 2005 saw its first neutral month beginning in June with 0.0 and continued to become more favorable (leaning more towards La Nina than El Nino) as shown by the succeeding negative digits that followed in subsequent months. As the hurricane season progressed, this pattern led into the beginnings of a weak La Nina by the late months of last year consistent with so many late season storms.

Just for the record, it was still officially designated a "Neutral" ENSO hurricane season based on the parameters that define each ENSO phase of the cycle. To clarify, there must be 5 consecutive months of 0.5 or greater (all positive digits) to be declared an official El Nino phase. In contrast, it takes five consecutive months of -0.5 or greater (all negative digits) to qualify as an official La Nina. Honestly, I am really exhausted and am now off to go to bed. I hope this is helpful and that everyone has a truly blessed night.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
1308. Fshhead
Oh man does that Andrew pic bring back bad memories. Man that was one hell of a storm.
1310. Fshhead
I NEVER want to experience another storm like that, thats for sure
1311. Fshhead
Yea my bro lived in the Ridge. I live close to Country Walk
winter123...I definetely see that low firing up convection. It'll be interesting to see if it can start concentrating and getting organized.

I would really appreciate it if people checked out my tutorial blog by clicking here and posting their comments and questions and posting how you think I can improve. Thanks a lot!
1314. Fshhead
My bro' lives in the ridge. I live close to tamiami airport
1316. Fshhead
what you guys think about the wave east of the islands???
1317. Fshhead
With Wilma i was not to sure what we were going to get BUT, I knew whatever it was we were getting it LOL
1321. theBlur
OK, so I can't spell from memory so good these days ;-) Everyone is allowed to shoot me.

Especially when I'm watching TV at the same time.
Whoops! Looks like 99L spat off all of its strongest convection from the main low. But, it's definetely wrapping more newly developed convection around its center...so it could be reorganizing and is holding together amazingly under shear. Well, I'm signing off now...goodnight to everyone still up and monitoring!

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convection is refiring around the center of 99L. Me thinks this will be a TS by the time it gets in the Carr.
1324. snowboy
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ABOUT 1100
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Morning all
Morning SJ,
Looking at the sats it seems the cape v season may be heating up
1327. SLU
good morning

99L is developing a little slower than expected but it will still become a TD at least by this afternoon if the convection develops. The disturbacne ahead of it looks even more impressive that it but I think its and ITCZ disturbance which will either dissipate with time or get sucked up into 99L's circulation.

Anyone looking at the Panama Blob. The PR wave is showing lots of thunderstorms in a weakening shear zone and it may develop later.

Nice looking rotations both east and west of the Cape Verdes.

The wave coming off Africa today is the same one that the long range GFS wanted to develop into a powerful cyclone. It backed off on development for a few days but the 00z run redevelops it and other models like the UKMET, NOGAPS, CMC want to follow suit.

The Atlantic is starting to look a lot like August 2004 again. We could be entering a dangerously active period.
Morning 459!
The CV season does look like it is starting to ramp up. It is a little early for it to be heating up, but I am afraid it is a sign of what this season will hold. I think we will see quite a few more CV storms this year as opposed to last. Have to work today...Arghh.

See ya'll later

StormJunkie.com for the best free weather data on the web.
Good Morning Everyone,

It looks like the NHC has perked their interest in 99L and the E. Car. wave.I am going to Waffle House for breakfest.I will be back after that to discuss both of these features with you fine fellow weather fans.
Well, I was expecting a bit more activity after the diurnal. Still has the mid-level low hanging. Just a lot of convergence with the ITCZ there to the west. That probably did not nelp in development over-night. But if it hangs around it could always help in development today....but that would be sort of rare. 99 is just in a hostile environment and unless it jogs north not much in strengthening will happen.
I hope this just heads west and out of the picture.
1333. SLU
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE FROM 8N TO 9N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. THE LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 17 KT.
Where is 456?


SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM
ST.KITTS AND NEVIS TO ANGUILLA.
Rand......we've got showers in Saint Kitts
000
ABNT20 KNHC 290902
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ABOUT 1100
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FOR
Weather456.....Morning. Just thought you might want to see your location in print! Glad it's only about showers!!!!
Shear over 99L is dramatically changed
StormW.....Good morning back.
Morning Rand, StormW and All.....
We have some soggy conditions here this AM also....some lightning around too.
Looks like the west end broke off....and the east end is where the center is...If so then chances of TD 03 is high. 99L survived many nights, dust and wind shear. It is becoming better organized also. But my chances of development is still 30%, just to be on the safe side.......
1345. sunny55
Morning all,sunny & almost 80 here north of Pensacola,those of you in south FL, I lived there 30 years moved to Gulf Coast and got slammed by Ivan, Dennis etc.I hv to say I am learning a lot on this site thnx to all of you.
Weather456...That's a realistic figure. There's still that mid-level circulation so anything could happen as conditions become more favorable.
1347. SLU
Randrewl the circulation is all the way down to the surface and not just in the mid levels .. look closely at the visible imagery
The 30knots of shear moved west, and is now near the South American coast. Leaving almost no shear for 99L.....

Also I would like to point out the extremely favourable Caribbean Sea.....waves located in the Caribbean should be watch....

Also that wave south of Puerto Rico does not seem to be disorganized as Yesterday.

Dust- Well the Saharan Air Layer map shows significant thining of the dust in the Central atlantic.

Wind Shear- Decreased everywhere but over the Bahamas, North of Hispniola and PR. That suggest that if any thing developed, it would most likely be a cape verde wave, in the Central Atlantic or Caribbean Sea.
Weather456....You know I will be glued all over the Carib today. Damn...more lightning....I'm shut down till this passes.
Good Morning Everyone,
I am back from the Waffle House.It looks to me the set up for 99L is a lot like the one we had for Charley in 04.Wave in front(we had Bonnie in front of Charley 2 years ago a cold front is forcast to come down to the gulf coast in about 8-10 days (lows here in pcola in the lower 60's.We had the same kind of front in 04 ahead of charley.The timing of this front will determine if this is turned towards west fla or moves twds upper gulf coast.
1353. rxse7en
I'm AWAKE! Will reread the blog over several cups of coffee and try to chime in with witty--yet pertinent--banter. :D

Mornin'

B
1354. refill
When 99L will go to the north or northwest?...I think that is close to South America...
Good morning everybody.
Have a nice day
1356. refill
When 99L will go to the north or northwest??...
I think is very close to South America
I nice visible loop, just reveal what i think is the center 99L. It is the area in the Eastern side of the wave....

7:30am EDT
Location 9N/43.2W
Winds:25mph
Pressure: 1009mbar
Moving just north of due west.....

Anyone heard about Chris Landsea from the NHC and a report he issued yesterday regarding storm intensities? It is published in Science. I am not a member. AP published a short article about it today. If anyone has a digital copy and feels like sharing it....I would be grateful.
I remember everyone thought Ivan was too far south and look what it did.
Hurricane Warning

99L appears to be having continued adverse affects from the SAL outburst but, may form. I have made an update on hurricane warning including all the latest data up to 8:30 PM EST aboout 99L. This includes, satellite, computer model, SAL, wind shear, and SST data. It is all wrapped into a very informative analysis of 99L. Feel free to discuss 99L on my blog.
I want to point out, the convection heading towards South Aermica is not 99L.....its a more define center back east at 9N/45W
the time on the update is 8:30 AM**
Weather456....yes, that westerly convection is just some of the ITCZ convergence happening there. I haven't read Turtle's blog yet but that is all that is.
Posted By: StormW at 8:34 AM AST on July 29, 2006.
Hey guys,
If you go to the NRL ATCF site and click 99L, run the vis loop at large (50%) of original size...think we can pick out the center.


That is what i used to find the center, and the NHC says that the low is getting better defined.
1367. rxse7en
OK. 1 cup of coffee down and I'm caught up. Looks like another day of blob watching. The blob below PR seems to be generating some good convection this morning, 40 knots of shear may knock that down though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html
I have been looking at the lastest vis. pics and there is a low level center at 9n and 44w.It does not have to gain lat. very rapidly just 1 degree north per 5 west would put it at around 13n and 64w in about 3-4 dys right in the slot the big ones come from.The NHC 72 hour forcast has a 1009 mb low on a wave approaching the lesser ant.
1370. IKE
The model runs above/below on this blog have trended 99L further south into the Caribbean.

Can someone link a good shear map...wanted to look at the PR blob area........
Weather456....Do you do anything with this site?
Link
Good morning weather watchers!!

Busy at work but must see what happened to our 3 waves during the night. I see we are still watching the big one in the Atlantic?

not getting nearly as much rain from the wave crossing south Florida as they predicted we would earlier in the week.

want to look at some links so will be back later.

Happy Saturday everyone (I'm at work until 7pm!)

Here is the true 99L
8:15am EDT-Getting Better Organized.

1375. IKE
Thanks...456......
1376. IKE
99L has that signature "9" look to it in that satellite picture.......
Rand....I never heard of that site, but thanks...I also use caribWx
Oh yes, forgot this.

Our local newspaper for SE Florida, "The South Florida Sun-Sentinel" in the Local section yesterday had front page article about "Weather Watchers". Very interesting. Interviewed some folks that have the weather stations in their yards and they turn in reports to the Nation Weather Service for conditions in their area. Etc...those are "our kind" of people! Also talks about different types of weatherstations, etc.
But it also listed places you can broadcast your weather station and the very first name on the list was "Weather Underground"!!!

We are becoming famous!!!

Just thought you would want to know.
Gams
1379. SLU
stormcarib.com is a fantastic site for reports from the islands during bad weather
Weather456....I found it in my bookmarks. Haven't visited there since last year. You should write for them...looks like they could use some help!
1381. SLU
i've been posting reports there for 5 years now
SLU...I forget where you are....St. Lucia?
1383. IKE
PR blob is in a low shear area...

Both systems need to be watched.
Rand...Thanks Alot...I will add it my list....
There is not 40knots of shear over the wave south of PR......It is in 0-20knots of shear.
Check it out ~ the NHC answer my question I had yesterday as far as if the stormage over South America was associated with the wave over the Bahamas, in the 8am discussion...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WEST 20 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA OF BAHAMAS-TO-STRAITS OF FLORIDA-TO-NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND TROUGH.
THE FLOW ACROSS THE WAVE ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS ANTICYCLONIC AT THE UPPER LEVELS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 9N IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...
PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THIS WAVE.

Thanks MT:)

Guess that discounts my reasoning on why this one won't develop, though it's not looking real menising.
MIAMI -- Scientists linking the increased strength of hurricanes over recent years to global warming have not accounted for outdated technology that may have underestimated storms' power decades ago, researchers said in a report published Friday.

The research by Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center challenges two studies published last year by other respected climatologists.


Sun sentinel article

sorry, forgot this is the blog where you just get ignored unless the right bloggers are on here...

will be back later when the others arrive for information.
1390. aquak9
G'morning folks! Good to see ya'll keeping an eye on everything for us!
Rain-drool? you been up all nite? :)
1391. aquak9
hey RD...can ya give me a very quick run down of what's shaping up(or falling apart) out there? Thanks.
aquak9....Nope....around 6am. Read the article I linked. Have a good day.
1393. SLU
yes St. Lucia
1394. rxse7en
456,

You are correct. I was looking above PR. Right where the blob is, and is going--if it ever moves--the shear is favorable!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
when is the next update????
aquak9...Wave in Atlantic still has circulation...not much convection right now. Carib is starting to fire up a bit this morning. I'll be watching south of PR and Jamaica today. That's it!
Look at that blob in the middle of the north atlantic.....

1398. rxse7en
456,

On that link I posted for shear, if you click -3hours and +3hours you can see the field for 40kt shear is increasing in the area above PR. Don't know if it'll expand enough to influence the blob though.


B
1399. aquak9
g'morning rxs7n neighbor...as usual, all calm, hot, and dry here...

Thanks folks!
1400. rxse7en
Hiya K9! We really could use some rain here, eh? Can't believe how many lawns have been infested by THE CHINCH!!! this summer.

Beware THE CHINCH!!!
8:45am EDT-Good structure, limited convection....30% chance.....



The thing in the north Atlantic appears to be part of a front or the remnants of a front. On the other hand, the wave in the Caribbean is producing a big burst of convection (IR loop).
1403. IKE
The PR blob is firing off some impressive thunderstorms...suppose to move west @20-25mph according to this mornings PR discussion...
Puerto Rican Wave is increasingly looking better than 99L...
Here is a close up of the PR wave (floater 2).
Here is a close up look...Shear, dust and SST are favorable. But awaiting the 1200UTC wind shear map to see if wind shear will remain low....10% chance of development until then.....
What are the chances that you all are giving for the PR Blob?
thanks 456.
thanks 456.

I just don't trust that one.
Sorry Gamma, I'm brain dead before 10am.lol Interesting article, did they post an online version? I'll have to check back later, off to enjoy Saturday things.
1411. aquak9
hi rays...i'll chat at ya in your blog...

rx7vn...I took care of the chinch bugs early this year. I paved my entire yard w/cement, and painted it green.
no problem rays
1413. IKE
accuweather has a real impressive morning update..."Still no development in the Atlantic Basin, but a few stronger waves continue to move through the region."....

Geez...probably a lot of thought went into that...
Regardless of organization, 99L has to generate significant convection if it is going to develop, otherwise, it will dissipate.
9:15am EDT - 99L looks sick.....Just got to wait out this one....well until 99L earns some attention, i am focusing on the Puerto Rican wave for now....
So we are looking more at the PR blob rather than the one in the Atlantic? Hope Dr Master's comes on soon with an updated blog for us!

{{{skye}}} have a wonderful SAturday!
1417. IKE
They need to move floater 2 slightly to the west...the PR blowup/blob/wave is outrunning it.
Yes it is.
I don't think floater 2 was actually moved over to where the PR wave is; it was probably already there from an earlier invest.
1420. sarepa
here at the dominican republic is starting to get rainy
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 9:55 AM AST on July 29, 2006.
I don't think floater 2 was actually moved over to where the PR wave is; it was probably already there from an earlier invest.


from 96L
99L is going bye bye oh dr M may be off this weekend
1423. IKE
Looking at a WV loop...almost seems a slight circulation south of DR...
1424. aquak9
...pushing nearly 1500 posts...hoo boy just wait till we really get a mess on our hands
1425. IKE
He should be updating soon....
1200UTC wind shear shows that both the wave and 99L are in favourable upper level winds...
1427. rxse7en
456,

According to that chart, it looks like PR Blob will face some 30+kt shear soon, eh?
Taz, 99L isnt going bye-bye yet....it did the only thing possible that would help it develop, slowed down and moving slightly north of due west. It still has limited convection.

But I drop my chances to 25% that it become TD 03 or 04.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE FROM 8N TO 9N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.
THE LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 17 KT.
1429. IKE
yup...and 99L has smooth sailing if it can add convection...
Posted By: rxse7en at 10:03 AM AST on July 29, 2006.
456,

According to that chart, it looks like PR Blob will face some 30+kt shear soon, eh?


Yes it will face wind shear soon, but until then, its located in favourable upper level winds....
The PR blob has good upper level divergence, but 99L doesn't (it is all ahead of it where the convection is). As for lower level convergence, the PR wave does not have any while there is a small area of convergence near the center of 99L. Also, the thing in the middle if the north Atlantic (whatever it may be) has both upper level divergence and lower level convergence.
1432. IKE
Actually the slight circulation I think I see is South/SouthEAST of the Dominican Republic...not south of...
...A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...

NRL seems to think it has a 1009 mb low; it has had it at 1009 mb and 20 kts for its entire existance.
1434. IKE
he has an update...
1435. MZT
new blog up
1436. caneman
I wish death and destruction on this tropical blob. It has irritated Caneman for days now and nigh is the time for this blob to meet a slow, dry air ladden death.
Therefore, Caneman will set in motion the events that will dispense with this rather unsightly looking mass of clouds.
Caneman will update his blog later on.