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New tropical disturbance 95L a threat to Central America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:56 PM GMT on November 24, 2006

A tropical disturbance (95L) has formed near 11N, 79W, just north of Panama, in the extreme southern Caribbean. This disturbance has a large but disorganized area of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. The latest QuikSCAT satellite imagery from 5:45am EST today caught just the east side of the disturbance, and revealed top winds of 35-40 mph. An ill-defined and elongated surface circulation was apparent in the QuikSCAT data, and some evidence of rotation can be seen on the latest visible satellite loop of the region.


Figure 1. preliminary model tracks for the Panama disturbance, 95L.

Wind shear is around 10 knots over the disturbance, which is low enough to allow some slow development over the next two days. It is possible a tropical depression could form by Sunday, as wind shear is expected to remain low over the extreme southern Caribbean. Steering currents are weak, but a slow westward motion beginning on Saturday is indicated by most of the models. The system appears to be a threat primarily to Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Panama. Any northward movement of the storm would bring it into a area of high wind shear that would quickly tear it apart.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from 2:15pm EST Nov 24, 2006.

I'll be back Saturday morning with an update.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It is hard to believe we are looking at this at this time of year.
Hurricane season ends in 6 days
Finally some Tropical weather.
I was wondering just this morning when an invest would be raised and Dr M's post referring to the disturbance as 95L means an invest classification has been determined. We should see it on the Navy site soon
interesting lets hope it hits land quick
Here is an IR shot of now invest 95L...


Here is another view at models for invest 95L...


model tracks for very late season systems are notoriously unreliable.
At this time of yr systems tend to meander all over the place including going E through the Caribbean.
While shear is high in the central and NW Caribbean winds have died down significantly here and the sun is out again. Who knows if the shear may not also relax to the N of 95L
Infrared loop from FNMOC...


Hi
Can anyone tell me how to get an image of the Eastern Atlantic / European weather. We are being told there is a severe storm coming our way overnight and tomorrow (The UK) and I would like to see the progress it is making. Thanks
Sandi go to www.accuweather.com.
sandi

NE Atl image
Link
sandi

image links including the one just posted
Link
Thank you so much - I'll go and look - but we have been warned it could be 80-85 mph when it crosses the country.
Kman 95l looks to be organizing more.lol
Hi Sandi was warning my Mum in the Isle of Man about that one, up to 100 mph gusts forecast for monday.

That's going to be one unpleasant storm. Stay safe and off the roads.
ryang

true but conditions in the NW Caribbean right now would do a number on it before it got to us.
Hopefully it will only be a conversation piece for everyone.
The buoy to our S has 23 knot winds out of the N. 95L would not like that at all !!
Hey Kman also in Cayman
Hi Creg, We were going North tomorrow, but may just give it a miss - the MI is not a pleasant place in strong winds - too high and exposed!
Cregnebaa

Are you new on here ?. If so welcome to the blog.
Looks like the cool N winds of the last few days are dying quickly. Heat on the rebound !
Here is the buoy I was referring to.
Offshore conditions still very hostile
Link
Been here a while, just pre Ivan, but haven't posted much in Dr M's blog for a while.

Forecast is saying we might get the frontal system over Jamaica regressing over us. Although the cool weather is nice, I need some sun!
Ryang 95L has a very small area were there are favorable upper levels winds that may allow development into a tropical depression.To the north there is a great amount of DRY AIR which will destroy anything that trys to push to the north.Also shear is quite high to the north of 95L.
I know what you mean. The sun this afternoon feels great.
I do however see some moisture retrograding from the E and coming up from the S. May be more rain on the way just in time for the weekend !! LOL
Looks like 5 more days of rough seas as well.

Could make the Butterfield triathlon fun for sunday
Thanks 23
Hurricane

I do not see 95L up on the Navy site as yet. Where did you get your 95L loops ?
Sheer forecast

If it satys in the Caribbean could have a chance
I went to the caymans already.
surf's up !!

Wake boarders etc will be out in force, not to mention the kite flyers
ryang

how long ago ?
Sandi missed your post,

M1 can be a mare especially with all the lorries, their all over the place in the strong winds
I liked the area of old man bay in Grand Cayman.
kmanislander 95L has been up for a while now on FNMOC....CLICK HERE
Kman about two years ago.
Creg

Here is a good shear map link
Link
h23......missed you..haven't had my daily entertainment in awhile....do me a favor..go back to your dry air link...tell me just how much dry air is to the north of that system..did you might mean...northwest?
ryang

old man bay is a great part of the island of Grand Cayman. Quiet with the feel of "old" Cayman.
The sister islands are also exceptional for a relaxing vacation.
Little Cayman is like a trip back in time. Really wonderful
heh the NRL are lacking today, they didn't have the west pacific invest on until hours after it was already on the FNMOC.. and I was wondering why they re-issued 92W invest when there was a 92W way back on November 10th.
It ain't over 'til it's over, even in an El Nino year with no activity for 8 weeks!

If 95L does develop, it'll be a real slap in the face to the CSU and everyone else who already issued their final season summary.
I agree KMAN.
well I am outof here for now but will check back later.
For anyone not on when I come back have a great weekend and in the UK stay safe from the approaching system
In LC 2 weeks ago, was marvellous, love it there.

That's some nice 40kt shear over us, that's what I like to see
Sprocketeer
same thing happened last yr with about 3 systems showing up " after " the season was declared over.
Guess they forgot to tell mother nature LOL
I am sure we have had more storms in the UK in the last 3 weeks than we usually get in the whole of the winter. All the bad weather in the Atlantic is being blown our way!
I dont think 95L is anything to worry about, as like the last invests it will probably die out or run into to land. The most the might come out of it is a tropical depression but thats it. The season is done..
maybe get a 10th storm, but I kinda doubt it for same reason as drakoen. I don't think it has time before hitting land.
its still extremely disorganized and confined to a small area in which it can develop. Upper level winds could increase and tear it apart.
Everyone there is a serious entry on my blog.
Drakoen that is correct 95L is in a very small pocket of favorable upper-levels winds and significant development is not expected.

View of 95L from NRL...

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
notwithstanding the long odds against significant development 95L is expanding in coverage and the clouds coming N underneath Jamaica and the Caymans do not appear to be under 40 knots of shear.
Link
water temps in the NW Caribbean still 83F after the cold snap
If shear relaxes and it pulls poleward SST will still support TS statusLink
Looks like Stacy feels like 95L has a chance at futher development....

ABNT20 KNHC 242201
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST
NORTH OF THE COAST OF PANAMA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
This disturbance is of great interest to me and has thus caused me to analyze it. It does appear to be organizing. More information can be found on

Hurricane Warning

Quite exciting to be tracking at this late date.
I think if it remains it that area for a long time it might develop. I still think it is nothing to get excited about, if you will. Probably at the most a tropical depression before hitting land and dieing out. Lets see what the upper level winds do to it first.
heres the discussion..

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N57W 13N59W 8N59W IN NORTHERN
COASTAL GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N56W
15N58W 12N59W. THIS PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY MAY REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS THE TROUGH MOVES MORE AND MORE
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALSO IS IN PLACE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IMMEDIATELY EAST
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE RIDGE RUNS
FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO 14N77W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND BEYOND 22N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 11N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND 83W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND IN NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS
OF 11N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. PRECIPITATION JUST WEST OF
11N73W IS DISSIPATING FROM 10N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N56W INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N66W INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
95L is doing what it did last night--- fade away for a while
Tomorrow morning will probably see a refiring of the convection.
Right now it looks better than this time last night which isn't saying a lot
my link isn't showing up go here http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
drakoen

ran the loop but not sure what you see there other than a low with very little in the way of convection
24/2345 UTC 10.9N 78.3W TOO WEAK 95L -- Atlantic Ocean


1st update for 95L
Right now 95L is pretty much a low swirl with very little convection. However, the moisture content in and around 95L has expanded significantly since last night which may allow for a more dramatice recovery of the deep convection in the early morning hours of tomorrow
Good point Kman.
hello evere one is dr m back yet or did aorn update this blog i been a way for 2 days so i do not no whats been going on her
TAZ DR.M IS BACK
sweet how long a go did he came back
This is his 2nd blog since he's been back.
i was just mentioning the cyclonic spin with the system that is evident by the satelite loop. Most likely the convection will flare up tommorrow.
I already see that the overall convection is low. At least, for one, it has a spin to it. Another thing is the computer models are are shifting the system more to the north than west, than previously. With this in mind the shear over the northern Carribean must dramatically decrease in order to support tropical cyclone development.
The 12Z cmc has near invest like storm at the end of the run forming near the NE antillies from what is now that blob forming east of the lesser antilies...You cam see it real well in that Water Vapor loop Drakoen posted.

compare it to 95L...
Skyepony cool
hold on there stop the clocks holde the phone

they for got 94L the last one was 93L so this sould be 94L not 95L
Models for 95L show a more northward turn...

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Overall banding has somewhat improved but this disturbance has clearly lost most of its convection this evening.




hmmmmmmm they for got 94L and yet right on to 95L the last one was 93L so 95L sould be be 94L not 95L

or am i missin some in her
THe blob in the central antlantic should be 94l or 95l not this puny littl shower!! >:(
this morning I mentioned that model tracks are notoriously unreliable for very late season systems and that a typical track this time of year would be NW then NNW and NE,not W as progged earlier today

The models are now trending that way and I expect more of the same with the next run.

The fall off in convection has at least allowed us to see the clear low center. Convection will likely refire in the early hours of tomorrow between midnight and 6 am
moisture from 95L is beginning to displace the dry air in the NW Caribbean
This will be a slow fight between the two
Link
one further point

winds at the buoy S of the Caymans have now veered from N at over 20 Knots to a more zonal E at below 20 knots. This signals the retreat of the N winds associated with the strong front that came through here days ago, improving conditions if 95L does track N
Watch for shear to relax some in response to this wind shift as conditions go vertical

Link
One Year Ago -
Posted By: JeffMasters at 5:52 PM EST on November 23, 2005
This is Tim Roche in for Dr. Masters.
Tropical Storm Delta was classified as a tropical storm as of the 4:00pm EST update from the National Hurricane Center. Delta formed out of a non-tropical low pressure system that has been slowly aquiring tropical characteristics, while drifting eastward over the Atlantic since the middle of last week. Convection wrapped almost all the way around the center earlier today, and a recent Quikscat pass showed several areas with uncontaminated 50kt wind vectors. The system is forecast to drift southward for the next few days then to accelerate northward and lose its tropical characteristics. As Delta becomes extratropical, it will likely strengthen more, with winds possibly reaching hurricane strength. Delta shouldn't effect any landmasses as a tropical storm, and is mostly a threat to nautical interests.
the banding feature is nice trying to wrap what little thunderstorms it has. I expect the thunderstorms to flare up like most of them do. Hopefully the shear will relax north of the system to allow for some development.
the models are a funny thing. I agree with kman track of this system as far as typical movements. Northwest, north, northwest, north, north east. like what Wilma did. Of course this is no Wilma. :)
Drakoen

Thankfully not a Wilma. I just looked at conditions at Colon in Panama just S of 95L and winds are out of the W @5 mph.
If anything does come of this it will take quite some time to get going
...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND TRAVEL PERIOD.

THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THIS STORM COULD BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH TO PARTS OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER.

THE STORM MAY ALSO CAUSE INCREASING EAST WIND THROUGH THE COLUMBIA GORGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA GORGE BY SUNDAY.

RECENT COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE CLOSE TO PORTLAND. IF THIS TRACK TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...THEN INLAND AREAS NORTH OF THIS PATH COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS LOWER CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY... POSSIBLY BELOW 1000 OR EVEN 500 FEET.
IN ADDITION...THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY AND CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS ACROSS THE CASCADES.

IT ALSO APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING SNOW LEVELS CLOSE TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY MONDAY...THOUGH PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MORE SHOWERY AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

oh well 95L will not do a thing there is olny 5 days 2 go and the end of hurricane year is her what a year olny 9 name storm this year then that 28 name storm we had last year
Wishcaster

You are giving me the chills !!!
Taz

Tropical systems do not have calenders !
35 her and not 10 pm yet its cold tp night and it could get in the 20s her to night and snow levels her could get as low as 2,000ft or lower
This is my first time posting here and I could use a little help. I am doing a presentation for my graduation project on hurricane forecasting. Is there any infomation out there about how the different Atlantic hurricane models work or what they are based off? I would also like the death toll from all of this seasons Altantic hurricane season. If you have any of this infomation you can simply email it to me at Weather130@aol.com
Hi all, just checking in after a long day. Looks to be some weather in the Atlantic, but no invest there. Does look more threatening than 95L from my perspective.........
Taz there have been tropical systems for every month lol.
Hi Pottery

Looks like we just missed each other the last few days.
How goes it ??
Weather 130

Welcome to the WU blog of Dr Masters
See link below from the WU home page about models

Link
you think the NHC season for the East Pacific and Atlantic in the future will be..

a tropical cyclone can form at any time during the year, but most cyclonic activity will occur between June and November?
Hi there Kman. Good to see you. Its been crazy...someone stole the phone lines (price of copper is way up ), we have been finalising things for our big annual event this w/e, and inflation hit 10 % ........... what else can I say? Oh, I hope it dont rain this w/e, but it looks like it will, and today the petroleum drivers are on strike so I dont know how that will be good for me. Our new site is up.....ajoupapottery.com check it out, but its a big one....
Weather130

A review of Dr Gray's 2006 season summary will give you all the info you need including whether or not there were any fatalities
Link
pottery

will certainly check it out. I sent you an e mail last night to say hello. Did you see it ?
Kman, thanks I just saw it........
Pottery

Thats some site you've got there. Took a lot of work. I just redid my firm's site as well and boy was that a pain but it was worth it once it was finished
000
ABNT20 KNHC 250324
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST
NORTH OF THE COAST OF PANAMA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE OR DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Petroleum drivers on strike eh ?
I guess they know where the juggler vein is LOL
and the point is?
point for what? My post?
Thanks Kman, yeah the site is good. Some small glitches to iron out, like the fact that my dear wife (we work together ) seems to have got all the press..........but she is a creative genius, and I,m the practical guy who make sure she can create in peace. I run the firings, blend the clays, make the glazes, we are a good team.
Hi Tazmanian, is there a floater over the system in the Atlantic?
Pottery

A wise ( and smart ) man always gives his wife the credit, ESPECIALLY when she deserves it !!!

Well I'm turning in for tonight. I see that 95L is starting to refire the convection to the immediate N of the center.
Kinda like the little train that could LOL

C U all tomorrow
Pottery

go to the Navy site. They have the invest zoom up
they ARE the jugglar vein....
no floater running on 95L
oh sorry Pottery you were talking about the CATL wave but the answer is still the same; no floater
They haven't put a floater on it yet. It doesn't have much chance because of the high shear to the north. Its not organized enough either.
Thats why I could not find it.......thanks Kman....
Thanks to you too, atmosweather.
gnite all
Atmosweather, I am not thinking it will develop into anything, but I'm in Trinidad and I am hoping for clear skies this weekend. Looks doubtfull..........
Sleep well kman

credit NOAA
Animated
whats the pic of those thunderstorms for?
The're for me Drakoen......thanks skyepony, how are you?
Looks like I'm in the clear too. But it does make a pretty pic.....
Slowly westward should bring this area of low pressure inland.Also 95L has been stripped of all its convection it had earlier today.Development into a TD is looking less likely if the current trend persist.

The DRY AIR thats near by may already be having some affect on this disturbance.
Cause pottery lives near there...the animation looks neat...more ominous at the moment than 95L...most impressive thundershower in the C ATL in like 6 weeks...& the cmc has been on & off about it being nothing to a STS over the last 4 days.

Closest surface obsevation is 260nm away. The last Quickscat pass is a solid 6hrs old, may be worth looking at in the morning.
Yes indeed, 23, 95L is dead.
Your welcome pottery:)..The cmc had it missing you. Scroll down where I was posting a few hours ago for a link to it. It kinda sitting a pocket of low shear. It could move a little & be easily shredded.
Skye, I envy you with your fast connect. This dial up I have takes forever and ever..........I gave up on the animate after 7 mins,,,,,,,,,,
"Slowly westward should bring this area of low pressure inland.Also 95L has been stripped of all its convection it had earlier today.Development into a TD is looking less likely if the current trend persist.

The DRY AIR thats near by may already be having some affect on this disturbance."


Lets wait till tommorrow and see if the convection fires up again. One of two things will happen in will dissappate by upper level winds or dry air or stay in that area with persistent thunderstorm in and around the system. The only thing noteable, imo, is the wrapping feature and the cirulation.
drakoen, but the thunderstorms have all dissipated already, have they not?????
Usually with these systems the convection appear to be dissapating but then fire up during the early hours. No , i don't think it will develop, no it is not going to affect the lower 48s; but still it is something to watch as all invest are. Hence the word invest
True.......
Just remember the time of year does not matter as there have been tropical systems for every month. Just favorable condidtions. I will be back tommorrow to see what this system looks like. Night everyone.
I am off to sleep.......gnite all. our new website is up at ajoupapottery.com for those who like clay...
Drakoen or pottery,
I'm new to the forum here so would appreciate any insight. The storms off to the East in Skyepony's pic look like they are beginning to sheer. Do you think those storms move into the Southern Carib. by early next week? I'm supposed to be in Aruba Mon-Weds.


So, does the green mean the heat index is above 130?
?
139. IKE
95L is refiring this morning.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2006

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED N
OF PANAMA NEAR 11N78W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY MINIMAL NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EXCEPT FOR ONE BURST OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE NRN SEMICIRCLE FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 77W-78W.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA WHICH IS STATIONARY OR DRIFTING BACK W AS A WARM
FRONT FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS JAMAICA TO NEAR 12N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
FRONT. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED AS SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.











Morning IKE....It looks that way.
142. IKE
Good morning.
So the models were right . . . . eventually!

LOL

Morning all. I'm working overtime this weekend, so I prolly won't be in here so much. It's a pity, since I'd rather be watching this system.
I told you guys it would reifre thats what always happens. I look better than last night no?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251001
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST
NORTH OF THE COAST OF PANAMA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE OR DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W. A BURST OF MODERATE
CONVECTION FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE NRN SEMICIRCLE. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS EXPANDED AND PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND NOW EXTENDS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE CENTER. OVERALL...THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WHICH IS STATIONARY FROM
HAITI ACROSS ERN JAMAICA TO NEAR 14N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SLOWLY WEAKENING FRONT.
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN IS QUIET WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT IN PLACE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 13N68W AND UPPER
LOW/NARROW TROUGH JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS LOCATED E OF THE AREA BUT SOME OF
THIS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.

Hurricane season ends in 5 days
yea, but that doesn't matter. We can still get a system.
a foo-foo system..not going anywhere...never going to organise.A foo-foo!
Good morning everyone
Morning Crab.
wow. very intelligent words... It hasn a better chance of organizing than the previous invest.
Up and atum I see ..sandcrab
I see we have an anoyance down south a bit.
Like fleas on a tired Bloodhound.One more to shake off..sand.LOL
it has i meant.

Look here http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

Yeah Crab...but I'm Westcasting it right out of the picture.
You watching this cold push heading down come thurs-friday sandcrab?
Well is shure beautiful here left the Natchez trace at 2am this morning. Got on the scooter yesterday in the am and thats were I ended up.lol
10day GFSx..brrr!Link
Whoaa.....sounds like a nice ride.
Natchez ,nice place..scenic sand.
Yeah I am Pat thats why I took a ride may be the last nice one of the year. Keep on westcasting Rand.lol
On the road again!....
I kept getting on backroads got good and lost and ended up there.lol
95L..one last ride around the invest pages..LOL
Did that in Okinowa once sandcrab.Only I could get lost on an Island 60nm x 12nm
LOL Pat.
Put over 400 miles on since 5am yesterday my backside sore.lol
Randrewl has any turkey left?
Now you have that Wind Blown look I bet
Found a nice lil area off 116 looks like it did in the 30s.lol
Well any thoughts on the invest Rand?
Oh it is just drifting a bit right now Crab. Mostly stationary. Latest track has it drifting more West than North right now. I think West will be the end result with 95L.
good morning all

95L is looking a little ragged this morning.
Although the models still call for a W drift that is not what normally prevails this time of year. In fact it looks to me like the system has already drifted N to near 12 degrees.
Storm positions:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/1145 UTC 11.2N 78.4W T1.0/1.0 95L
25/0545 UTC 11.2N 78.7W TOO WEAK 95L
24/2345 UTC 10.9N 78.3W TOO WEAK 95L


Current motion:




Anybody else think that this is crazy?

No, I don't think it is completely crazy Michael. I do think it is exaggerated as far as intensity. If it stays south something like that could happen for a short time.
it doesn' tlook too bad on the IR and the satelite imagery, atleast better looking than yesterday.
Michael, direction looks good, intensity overdone. Could cross into the Pacific intact. That is very possible.
198. ryang
Party at my blog tonight.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251610
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH OF PANAMA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM... IF ANY... SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW DRIFTS
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Someone fed the 00Z 95L GFDL run some steroids...maxs out at 105kts before landfall!

No Quikscat passes this morning, not 95L, C Atlatic blob or the invest in the S Atlantic.

95L has become strong enough for a dvorak reading...
25/1145 UTC 11.2N 78.4W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic Ocean
credit~Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page