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New tropical depression could form off the coast of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:12 PM GMT on September 25, 2009

A tropical wave (99L) is located near 15N, 30W, about 300 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands. This wave has seen an increase in heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, and low-level spiral bands have formed. The system can already be classified as a tropical depression using the satellite-based Dvorak technique. This morning's QuickSCAT pass showed a loose but closed circulation, with top winds of 30 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 20 knots. There is a modest amount of dry air to 99L's west that does not appear to be interfering with the storm's organization.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Invest 99L (left side of image) and a new tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa.

As 99L moves west-northwest over the next two days, sea surface temperatures will cool by 1°C and winds shear will remain in the moderate range. Some dry air may also affect the storm. These conditions give 99L a good chance of forming into a tropical depression, and NHC has given the system a moderate (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Monday, wind shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, and 99L will probably weaken or be torn apart. None of the computer models forecast development of 99L or any other system in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

A new tropical wave with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity and some spin is moving off the coast of Africa today. This wave is under a moderate amount of wind shear, 10 - 20 knots, and has some potential for development this week as it moves west or west-northwest past the Cape Verdes Islands.

The latest wind shear forecasts from our major computer models show high values of wind shear affecting most of the tropical Atlantic for the next ten days. This is typical for an El Niño year, and it will be difficult for any storms to get to hurricane strength over the next ten days because of the high shear. The latest 16-day GFS forecast predicts wind shear will decline some by the 2nd week of October, though.


Figure 2. Wind shear forecast for Thursday, October 2 at 00 UTC made by last night's 00Z run of the GFS model. Wind shear is expected to be high over most of the tropical Atlantic for the next ten days, including the Caribbean. Wind shear values below 8 m/s (about 15 knots, red colors), are typically needed to support tropical storm formation.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Its good Iceman, my hurricane calendar runs out of days tomorrow.
Quoting iceman55:
kaboom td8#
11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 25
Location: 17.4°N 32.3°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
I'm not buying. You probably need those.
Quoting iceman55:
looking not much have change in few hrs.!imo
Maybe.... Maybe Not
Quoting iceman55:
Hurricane009 hey
Hi.
511. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:



oh wow


what? XD
Quoting mikatnight:


Sounds like a shampoo commercial...

forgot to wash the hair last night .... thanks
On History channel right now (10:00 central) That's Impossible: Weather Warfare

Using tornados, hurricanes and other natural phenomenon as weapons of war.
Quoting PcolaDan:
On History channel right now (10:00 central) That's Impossible: Weather Warfare

Using tornados, hurricanes and other natural phenomenon as weapons of war.


Thanks - on it
Hurricane frequency is up but not their strength, say Clemson researchers

The increasing frequency of storms in the last 50 years is to be expected, due to better reporting and improved technology like satellites, Hurricane Hunter planes, and Doppler Radar. NOAA agrees on the improved reporting issue in a study here.
The model that starts to loop td # 8 looks interesting
Quoting iceman55:



oh wow


The green model that starts to loop td# 8 looks interesting
space weather update...

Things have been fairly quiet since the C2.0 solar flare from Thursday evening. Sunspot 1026 has for the most part vanished and Sunspot 1027 which remains a BETA sunspot group, is starting to wind itself down as well.

When will the next Cycle 24 sunspot appear? Let us hope that we do not have to wait very long and that the new Cycle will finally ramp up in activity.


Iceman, where and how do you see td # 8 starting to move westward?
Orca, still looking west..
Quoting foggymyst:
Orca, still looking west..


From you... yes.
orca, are you cold yet?

what's the temp like up there?
Quoting iceman55:
SQUAWK i did .
actually, you didnt. no different than what WS did. Almost all your meaningful posts are just images from websites which are all fine and dandy, but odd how you never say why you are posting or give YOUR interpretation. Other tahn that, most of your posts are jibberish or greetings to other bloggers...
Quoting hunkerdown:
actually, you didnt. no different than what WS did. Almost all your meaningful posts are just images from websites which are all fine and dandy, but odd how you never say why you are posting or give YOUR interpretation. Other tahn that, most of your posts are jibberish or greetings to other bloggers...
and I use the term meaningful with a grain of salt. to just post an image to make your self look knowledgable is not meaningful at all, actually just annoying.
evenin folks

frankly did not expect to see a thing, let alone a depression, in the atl. today.

seems to be a Cabo Verde season, this one
TD#8 has about 24hrs left of trying to become Grace.....After that, TD8 will get hit with major Shear as it continues to the NW! Little chance it will survive past 72hrs.
Quoting iceman55:
hunkerdown comeing said to my face.
s-p-e-a-k e-n-g-l-i-s-h...your posts make Taz's look like perfect grammer
Quoting PcolaDan:
On History channel right now (10:00 central) That's Impossible: Weather Warfare

Using tornados, hurricanes and other natural phenomenon as weapons of war.


Well, that was a conspiracy theorists dream.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
orca, are you cold yet?

what's the temp like up there?




Only because its dark :)
A poor job of the models forming a TD or was it a poor job of NHC upgrading it to a TD?
Quoting iceman55:
hunkerdown s-p-e-a-k e-n-g-l-i-s-h
we all see you are good at copying and pasting others words and work...can you apeak legibly on your own ?
Quoting TampaSpin:
A poor job of the models forming a TD or was it a poor job of NHC upgrading it to a TD?


Still hard to believe they don't ask your opinion first isn't it, the nerve of them.
Quoting iceman55:







Using the AMSU-derived azimuthally averaged temperature and height files radial/height cross sections of temperature and tangential wind are created (see Demuth et al (2004) ). The tangential wind field is derived using the 2-d gradient wind equations. Note that the resolution horizontal of the AMSU instrument results in a smooth temperature field and an unrealistically low tangential wind speeds. These images are useful in determining the thermal structure of the tropical cyclone.
since you keep osting this over and over, please explain...in YOUR own words...
Quoting iceman55:
hunkerdown we all see you are good at copying and pasting others words and work...can you apeak legibly on your own ?s-p-e-a-k e-n-g-l-i-s-h


Are you playing the "I know you are, so what am I" game?
535. watch it...that kind of comment will get you banned for criticizing the sacred cow! lol
is it still "speak like a pirate" day?
Quoting iceman55:
lolpearlandaggie
if you only understood...
Quoting hunkerdown:
we all see you are good at copying and pasting others words and work...can you apeak legibly on your own ?


TAZ ?? regarding an earlier post ... good night all ... good eve ...
hi all i see hunkerdown bossing around iceman i fully expect u to apologize to iceman as u never say that to someone like that...iceman is trying wants he wants ur not the boss of him.
549. trust me...i've been banned for criticizing the poor grammar of those worse than my 3rd grader! lol
Quoting btwntx08:
hi all i see hunkerdown bossing around iceman i fully expect u to apologize to iceman as u never say that to someone like that...iceman is trying wants he wants ur not the boss of him.
apologize for what, that truth...
Quoting pearlandaggie:
549. trust me...i've been banned for criticizing the poor grammar of those worse than my 3rd grader! lol
now thats the truth...at this point being banned means nothing here as people like that have caused this blog to become a joke for the most part. as I am sure you have noticed, most of the "regulars" are rarely here anymore.
Quoting iceman55:
hunkerdown need tell truth.STFU already
enjoy your ban !
Quoting hunkerdown:
apologize for what, that truth...

all am saying ur not the police of him....let iceman do his posts/images and just don't say anything back at him
Quoting btwntx08:
hi all i see hunkerdown bossing around iceman


I don't think what Hunkerdown was asking is unreasonable. Crediting the source with an image is typically preferred, thus preventing the ever-popular copying text from the TWO and claiming as one's original opinion.
560: enjoy urs as well
Quoting iceman55:
hunkerdown You don't even know me..get life
nor do I know most of the children that live in my neighborhood, so whats your point ?
571. JLPR
So what the problem tonight? XD
ur the man iceman
Quoting pearlandaggie:
549. trust me...i've been banned for criticizing the poor grammar of those worse than my 3rd grader! lol


But, if you could just get Atmo to act right! ;P
Quoting btwntx08:
ur the man iceman
what are you, his dad ?
Honestly though, hunker is obviously being blunt and condescending, but if I were iceman, I'd take that as an opportunity to improve myself, as a means to disprove hunker's notion that the man can't speak for himself.

But that's just me, I guess. Obviously, not everyone is that mature around here.
580. JLPR
Quoting hunkerdown:
what are you, his dad ?


so the problem is iceman's poor grammar?
Quoting hunkerdown:
what are you, his dad ?

blog friends hunkerdown gezzz
good evening from Seattle
585. JLPR
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


But, if you could just get Atmo to act right! ;P


wow long time no see
how you doing? :D
am mad at hunkerdown grrr!
Must be a slow night in the tropics if the worst that happens is a "Yes hed, no he didn't"
argument.
Quoting btwntx08:
am mad at hunkerdown grrr!
somebody must be having a sleep over
589. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:
JLPR haha


yeah ha...ha

but I must agree with Hunkerdown you do get me annoyed sometimes with the way you write

from where are you? Do you live in the US?
Quoting JLPR:


wow long time no see
how you doing? :D


Good, JLPR! It's FRIDAY! Hope things are good with you down in the Caribbean paradise!
Quoting SWFLgazer:
Must be a slow night in the tropics if the worst that happens is a "Yes hed, no he didn't"
argument.

there is a td out there
Quoting JLPR:


yeah ha...ha

but I must agree with Hunkerdown you do get me annoyed sometimes with the way you write

from where are you? Do you live in the US?

he lives sidell,la jlpr :)
Quoting SWFLgazer:
Must be a slow night in the tropics if the worst that happens is a "Yes hed, no he didn't"
argument.


lmao

This has certainly been entertaining, to say the least.

Rather childish, as well.
597. JLPR
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Good, JLPR! It's FRIDAY! Hope things are good with you down in the Caribbean paradise!


great =D
everything is nice here, a week of rainy days seem to have come to an end and the sun is showing its face more :)
600. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:
JLPR are u from usa


kinda lol XD
Puerto Rico

I ask that since how does a person from a place in which the main language is Spanish and not English write better in English than a person that uses the language everyday?

are you writing that way on purpose?
hunkerdown and iceman55 are both going too be injoying a 24hr banned if they dont take this out of dr m blog and take it too there own blogs


they need too STOP!
Quoting iceman55:
I must agree u not from usa oh opps my bad


jlpr


He's from Puerto Rico.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hunkerdown and iceman55 are both going too be injoying a 24hr banned if they dont take this out of dr m blog and take it too there own blogs


they need too STOP!


Are you kidding? This is the greatest entertainment to be found on this blog in many years.
Quoting JLPR:


great =D
everything is nice here, a week of rainy days seem to have come to an end and the sun is showing its face more :)


A W E S O M E! This year for sure it seems, so far at least, El Nino has been our friend! ;) Hope it stays that way!

Take care, JLPR and all!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Are you kidding? This is the greatest entertainment to be found on this blog in many years.




ok has long has they dont take it too far oh well they made be banned by AM any way
Quoting iceman55:
JLPR stop attacks me .u will get ban.
now look, you made him cry again...
Quoting iceman55:
KoritheMan haha new tv show.


You mean this one?

Quoting KoritheMan:


Are you kidding? This is the greatest entertainment to be found on this blog in many years.

lol
613. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:
JLPR stop attacks me .u will get ban.


lol do you consider that an attack even with the smiley face? XD

I am making a point, and I believe its very valid.

Very well im off to bed, TD 8 surviving but not strengthening and nothing else.
614. JLPR
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


A W E S O M E! This year for sure it seems, so far at least, El Nino has been our friend! ;) Hope it stays that way!

Take care, JLPR and all!


Take care too :)
Quoting iceman55:
im not cry .im 28 old man.
IF that is true, which I HIGHLY DOUBT, very sad !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting iceman55:
JLPR stop attacks me .u will get ban.


He wasn't attacking you, inasmuch as he was asking a question.
618. JLPR
Quoting KoritheMan:


He's from Puerto Rico.


yay! you remember lol XD
LOL...me thinks the Iceman is posting through spirit laced glasses. I'd post an image, but I wouldn't know what beer to give credit to....
GUYS PLEASE STOP FIGHTING!!!!!!!!!
Quoting KoritheMan:


You mean this one?

caution, you may join us with the Springer image
Quoting btwntx08:

lol


:D
625. JLPR


nothing else to say tonight

im off to hear some music =P
nice one iceman
Quoting JLPR:


nothing else to say tonight

im off to hear some music =P


Other than TD8 looks horrible? :P
Quoting iceman55:
btwntx08 .he 19.

yep :)


LOOKS LIKE IT'S HOLDING IT'S OWN!!
Quoting hunkerdown:
caution, you may join us with the Springer image


I'm just messin. :P
Quoting KoritheMan:


Other than TD8 looks horrible? :P

very horrible
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm just messin. :P
can I get my jerry beads :)
Looks like it's holding it's own to me!! PLEASE stop arguing over a TD!!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

The system just off the CV Islands is in the European Sat pic, IS NOT TD 8!! TD 8 is to it's NW!! PLUS the pic I posted shows convection firing up on TD *!!
You know what you have to do for Jerry beads...
Quoting hunkerdown:
can I get my jerry beads :)


'Fraid we don't want to go there...
another good one
Iceman, I had to log out earlier so I didnt see your response, why do you say TD # 8 will head west?
Quoting iceman55:
i was looking at SATELLITE images that why i said head west.


So you mean for now not for the long track right?
im tired so im out see ya iceman hope nothin happens :P
Iceman-or do you expect TD#8 to do a chickamahallamachoya like Dennis did in 1981?
Without looking at satellite imagery, I can say with a reasonable degree of certainty, based upon my own experiences tracking tropical cyclones, that at nighttime, when only infrared satellite imagery is available, that it can be quite difficult to pinpoint a definite center within a tropical cyclone. Hence, the illusion of a particular direction of movement appears readily apparent, when in reality, it is not.

This is typically why the NHC waits until visible satellite imagery to designate a system a tropical cyclone; finding a center is more than a little difficult using infrared imagery.
Interesting feature coming in under the radar.

12N 40W






I dont know if ya'all remember Hurricane Allen back in 1980 when top winds reached 170mph when it became a susener for derakie before it his Brownsville Texas
Since I'll be taking the weekend off from forecasting, just wanted to say have a nice weekend to everyone. It doesn't appear Tropical Depression 8 will be a threat.
Quoting kuppenskup:
I dont know if ya'all remember Hurricane Allen back in 1980 when top winds reached 170mph when it became a susener for derakie before it his Brownsville Texas


Actually, Allen's winds reached 190 mph, not 170.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Since I'll be taking the weekend off from forecasting, just wanted to say have a nice weekend to everyone. It doesn't appear Tropical Depression 8 will be a threat.


TD8 looks rather ragged at the moment, even though convection has been on the increase. None of the convection is organized, which is what is important.

In any case, good evening to you.
Quoting kuppenskup:
I dont know if ya'all remember Hurricane Allen back in 1980 when top winds reached 170mph when it became a susener for derakie before it his Brownsville Texas

it was at 190 mph also it didn't hit brownsville it hit just north in kenedy county
Quoting btwntx08:

it was at 190 mph also it didn't hit brownsville it hit just north in kenedy county


Coincidentally, 1999's Bret also struck Kennedy County.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Actually, Allen's winds reached 190 mph, not 170.


Your both wrong peak winds were 185mph at one point with gusts to 210. But it always seems to be the first storm of the season that Revens ekin flow up in alt for yovan. Doesnt seem that way?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Coincidentally, 1999's Bret also struck Kennedy County.

yep i remembered bret everyone on the spi evacuated cause at first thought it would be closer but it move north abit and it kennedy county
Remember when Hurricane Alicia did the chickamahallamachoya back in 1983 in the Gulf of Mexico? Again, the first storm of the yr and that was during a Elnino season. That just proves it right there again!
Allen 08 aug 1980 1332Z N6.jpg





Media in category "Hurricane Allen"
Quoting kuppenskup:


Your both wrong peak winds were 185mph at one point with gusts to 210. But it always seems to be the first storm of the season that Revens ekin flow up in alt for yovan. Doesnt seem that way?

actually ur wrong and were right look at patrap's image track of allen
That eye is so tight it's getting me excited!
Then in 1982 Alberto did fizzle out but that was after it was affected by derakie in yovan there. But in that case it didnt last the entire hurricane season
If iceman is still up I think he would be able to confirm this


11AM CDT PIC OF TD 8
671. JLPR
Quoting Bordonaro:


11AM CDT PIC OF TD 8


if that is 11am then this one is 12am :P


Looks like TD 8 wants to be Grace
Quoting JLPR:


if that is 11am then this one is 12am :P


Looks like TD 8 wants to be Grace


Maybe in about 8-12 hrs she may be TS Grace!!!
673. JLPR
Quoting Bordonaro:


Maybe in about 8-12 hrs she may be TS Grace!!!


yep if it continues to get more deep convection then Grace is definitely possible
Time is running out for TD 8. It's about to hit a wall of shear. I am more interested in the wave to the SE of TD 8. It will have more moisture to work with and is a lot further south. The lower the latitude the less likely it will be sheared by the westerlies. TD 8 is picking the dust up ahead of it.
675. JLPR
actually the dry air has mostly evaporated



Sydney Dust Storm part II passed through this morning pics
677. JLPR
another hour later
=O


not bad
559. hunkerdown 12:16 AM AST on September 26, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
549. trust me...i've been banned for criticizing the poor grammar of those worse than my 3rd grader! lol
now thats the truth...at this point being banned means nothing here as people like that have caused this blog to become a joke for the most part. as I am sure you have noticed, most of the "regulars" are rarely here anymore.


It's becoming a sad truth though. I love this blog but have realized it's becoming worst everyday. The admins dont even seem to dont care anymore.

Good Morning everyone

679. JLPR
Morning 456
Quoting JLPR:
Morning 456


Morning brother from another country, lol
Quoting JLPR:
actually the dry air has mostly evaporated





The dry air has evaporated??
Quoting GatorWX:


The dry air has evaporated??


You mean the dry air has moistened up!!!
683. JLPR
Quoting GatorWX:


The dry air has evaporated??


lol don't take it literately XD
I meant it has disappeared
how Bordonaro said it would be the correct meteorological way of saying it :P
684. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:


Morning brother from another country, lol


hey neighbor XD
685. JLPR
mmkay, seems some crow is in order for me. I said earlier that TD8 was looking ragged -- and while that was technically true, it certainly looks fairly healthy at the moment. Might well become Grace.
Good Morning or Good Evening to all, depending what part of the world in which you live!!

Peace, joy and happiness to all!! It's about time for bed for myself!!

Weather 456, your blog is awesome!! Be blessed everyone!! Be back here later!!

Peace out :0)!!!!!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Sydney Dust Storm part II passed through this morning pics


Absolutely amazing.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good Morning or Good Evening to all, depending what part of the world in which you live!!

Peace, joy and happiness to all!! It's about time for bed for myself!!

Weather 456, your blog is awesome!! Be blessed everyone!! Be back here later!!

Peace out :0)!!!!!


well thank you
Floods submerge Metro Manila areas



As Typhoon Ondoy batters Luzon
By Katherine Evangelista, Edson C. Tandoc Jr.
INQUIRER.net, Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 14:15:00 09/26/2009

Filed Under: Weather

MANILA, Philippines (UPDATE) Floodwaters covered Metro Manila and its outskirts as a Tropical Storm Ondoy struck the eastern side of the country on Saturday, government agencies said.

The storm, bearing winds of 85 kilometers per hour with gusts of 100 kilometers, hit the main island of Luzon near the town of Infanta at about 10 a.m. Saturday, moving west at 19 kilometers an hour, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.

About 100 families in different areas in Metro Manila have been evacuated as incessant rains caused heavy flooding in the national capital region.

Waist-deep floodwaters also prompted transport officials to close the busy South Luzon Expressway.

In Marikina City, at least 75 families (373 people) from the village of Malanday were evacuated to the Malanday Elementary School, the National Disaster Coordinating Council reported.

Twenty families or 100 people were brought to the Santolan Elementary School in the village of Santolan, Pasig City while four families (20 people) in the village of Tunasan, Muntinlupa City sought refuge in a covered court.

In San Mateo, Rizal, at least 269 families were reported to be severely affected by rising floodwater in the villages of Banaba and Sta. Ana. But the NDCC report did not say if the affected families have been evacuated.

Philippine Navy spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Edgard Arevalo said at least 14 rescue teams had been deployed as of Saturday noon.

Radio reports said that due to heavy rain, a wall had collapsed in a suburb of Manila, leaving one child missing, but government offices could not confirm this.

Huge traffic jams clogged the roads in the capital as floodwaters caused many vehicles to stall.

Local officials made appeals on air, asking rescue agencies to send rubber boats to rescue stranded people.

Navy personnel rescued at least 40 people using two amphibious trucks in the cities of Malabon and Navotas, Arevalo said.

In Paranaque City, two rescue teams, each composed of an officer and nine enlisted personnel, were also deployed equipped with two rubber boats.

The Navy also sent eight rescue teams in Cavite and two teams in Central Luzon.

Pagasa raised storm signal warning number 2 over Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Northern Quezon and Polillo Island.

Storm warning signal number 1 was hoisted over Isabela, Mountain province, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Mindoro Provinces, Lubang Island, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Bataan, Metro Manila and the rest of Quezon Province.

Ondoy was expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over Central and Southern Luzon and parts of Visayas, Pagasa said.

It advised residents living in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes in areas affected by Ondoy and the southwest monsoon to take necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

"Those living along the coast under signals number 2 and 1 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the storm," Pagasa added.

Ondoy was forecast to move west northwestward at 19 kilometers per hour. By Sunday morning, it was expected to be 230 kilometers west northwest of Iba, Zambales and at 610 kilometers west northwest of Iba , Zambales by Monday morning.

An average of 20 typhoons and storms enter the Philippines from the Pacific Ocean over the eastern seaboard every year. With reports from Agence France-Press; Marlon Ramos, Philippine Daily Inquirer

That storm over the Philippines is massive. I think it'll cause a lot of flooding.
feeble tropical wave just north of the abc's seems to be moving along have a good wkend everyone
692. feeble blog discussion just north of your post! LOL
695. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




td close to being history maybe some pieces of it will continue west
Right now I give Td 8 a 40-60% chance of becoming a Tropical Storm. I also give it a 50% chance it will stay a TD.
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning,

Tropical Depression 8
Good morning. Good flare-up in the sw Caribbean. Anything happening there ?
Quoting leftovers:
td close to being history maybe some pieces of it will continue west


Fred part 2 - Have mercy.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Good flare-up in the sw Caribbean. Anything happening there ?


I'm glad you ask. No. Nothing to worry about but look at the WV imagery of the W ATL or entire Tropical Atlantic.


Notice this flare up in the SW Caribbean is part of a band of moisture generated in the diffluent flow around the base of an upper trough digging across the area. Dry air sinking down from the SW ATL into the Caribbean and pushing this moisture south and keeping it confined to central America and the Southern Caribbean before exiting north of the Leewards. Also notice it has halt the front along the Western Gulf coast of the USA and Mexico causing it to become stationary.

IKE's complaining about the season, Weather456's contributing to the blog, and not much persons are here. Yep, looks like a typical morning.
702. P451
Eight



Good morning all

What a night, Kids up half the night sick with flu or something, Wife up all night, I think I am going to be RUNNING alot today, Doctor, Pharmacy, cooking etc. At least I feel great but sleepy. Lurk off and on today.

All quiet execpt for the TD way out there?

COFFEE NOW!
Quoting Weather456:


I'm glad you ask. No. Nothing to worry about but look at the WV imagery of the W ATL or entire Tropical Atlantic.


Notice this flare up in the SW Caribbean is part of a band of moisture generated in the diffluent flow around the base of an upper trough digging across the area. Dry air sinking down from the SW ATL into the Caribbean and pushing this moisture south and keeping it confined to central America and the Southern Caribbean before exiting north of the Leewards. Also notice it has halt the front along the Western Gulf coast of the USA and Mexico causing it to become stationary.

Thanks for clearing that up but is there any way something could form somewhere along this band of moisture ?
NHC doesn't even think TD8 will be Grace as of 5am.

Looks like the winter wunderblog pattern is setting up.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks for clearing that up but is there any way something could form somewhere along this band of moisture ?


not likely in such a situation. The area might just be diffluent energy rather than from a surface based feature. Also with the southern push on moisture, it could eventually move into the EPAC.
Quoting Weather456:


not likely in such a situation. The area might just be diffluent energy rather than from a surface based feature. Also with the southern push on moisture, it could eventually move into the EPAC.
Ok thanks. Just like to know especially at this time of year I know the Caribbean is the hot spot.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok thanks. Just like to know especially at this time of year I know the Caribbean is the hot spot.


Wilma develop in the situation you are seeing now but the orientation was further north and under different circumstances. One of the key features of Wilma RI other than very warm sst and monsoonal flow was a large upper jet extending from Jamaica across the Eastern Caribbean and tied to an upper trough north of the leewards. This effectively supplied the outflow for RI.
Weather456 - SO bascially there is no chance of another Wilma?
Quoting Weather456:


Wilma develop in the situation you are seeing now but the orientation was further north and under different circumstances. One of the key features of Wilma RI other than very warm sst and monsoonal flow was a large upper jet extending from Jamaica across the Eastern Caribbean and tied to an upper trough north of the leewards. This effectively supplied the outflow for RI.
Now you got me worried again. Wilma affected Cayman pretty bad too.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Now you got me worried again. Wilma affected Cayman pretty bad too.


how? Yea I know Wilma affected the Caymans but I said the formation of Wilma was under different circumstances and orientation than what we are seeing now.
Quoting Dakster:
Weather456 - SO bascially there is no chance of another Wilma?


??

You mean now? No

future - as along as mother nature supplies the ingredients, why not?
StormwatherCI - Don't worry, be happy!

You are on a beautiful island after all.
Quoting Weather456:


??

You mean now? No

future - as along as mother nature supplies the ingredients, why not?


I meant now and/or for the remainder of this season.

Of course anything is possible in the future.
Quoting Dakster:
StormwatherCI - Don't worry, be happy!

You are on a beautiful island after all.
Thanks for that. Yes, I know it is a beautiful island but wasn't so pretty after Ivan. I cried for days when I looked at it. We didn't even have trees left and I wasn't sure if it would ever come back but by the grace of God it has come very far since then although some areas still have a ways to go.
I can empthathize with you. I remember how long it took Dade County to get trees back after Andrew. There are still some nature conservacy areas that are nowhere near their pre-Andrew growth/look.
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Quoting Dakster:
I can empthathize with you. I remember how long it took Dade County to get trees back after Andrew. There are still some nature conservacy areas that are nowhere near their pre-Andrew growth/look.
I know. My parents lived in the Kendall area then and I came up a year after and it was still a horrendous mess. I actually grew up in S. Fla. but have been in Cayman since 1973.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know. My parents lived in the Kendall area then and I came up a year after and it was still a horrendous mess. I actually grew up in S. Fla. but have been in Cayman since 1973.
How long did you live in Florida?