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New threat: Stan's remains head for Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2005

Return of Stan
A large area of thunderstorms broke off from Stan this morning, and has emerged into the Yucatan Channel. Satellite imagery this morning has shown some improved organization of this feature, and with wind shear 10 knots over it, there is a chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm forming later today or tomorrow as the system tracks north-northeast towards western Florida. If this system were to be named, it would get the new name Vince, and not Stan, since the primary circulation of that storm pushed into the Pacific Ocean this morning.

Winds at the NOAA buoy 42056 at 20N 85W in the Yucatan Channel just switched from easterly to westerly at 11 am EDT today, suggesting that a closed circulation has already formed. Winds at this buoy were 25 mph gusting to 34 mph, and wind estimates from the latest QuikSCAT satellite pass were as high as 45 mph in this region. Regardless of whether or not this system develops into a tropical storm, southwest Florida can expect tropical storm conditions Thursday afternoon when this system comes ashore. The system will continue to the northeast and drench the areas already dumped on by Tropical Storm Tammy, and the entire East Coast needs to be concerned about serious flooding problems from this one-two punch.

I'll update this blog by 4pm today. The remainder of this morning's blog appears below, unchanged.


Figure 1. BAMM model track for tropical disturbance off of the Yucatan.

Tammy
Tropical Storm Tammy formed 20 miles offshore from Cape Canaveral this morning. With 19 named storms, the Hurricane Season of 2005 has now tied 1995 as the second busiest ever. Only 1933, with 21 storms, has had more.

Tammy formed in the presence of some unusually high wind shear from an upper-level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico--about 15 - 20 knots--which is decreasing enough this morning to allow some intensification. Radar animations out of Melbourne, Florida, show an intense area of thunderstorms, well offshore, that are increasing in echo intensity. No ships or buoys have actually measured tropical storm-force sustained winds of 40 mph yet, but it is likely that such winds are occurring in the most intense convection to the east of the center. Infrared satellite images confirm that this area is growing in size and intensity, and some very cold cloud tops are now appearing. As long as the center remains offshore, Tammy may continue to intensify. Intensification into a hurricane is not expected, and would be a major surprise, due to the high wind shear. It is more likely that the center will move onshore tonight as a weak tropical storm with maximum winds in the 40 - 50 mph range. In any case, the primary threat from Tammy will be from her rains. Bands of heavy rain will move onshore the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas over the next few days, creating flooding problems, particulary in Georgia, where the precipitation will be heaviest and the soil is moister.


Figure 1. Mild drought conditions cover South Carolina, which will slow flooding in that state. Flooding is more likely to be a problem in Georgia and perhaps North Carolina, where the soil is moister.

Tammy is being drawn northward by a trough and its associated cold front that are expected to arrive over the East Coast on Friday. The remains of Tammy will track up the front, drenching the entire East Coast, and it is likely that at least one more area of low pressure--probably not a tropical storm, but it could be--will develop along the front late in the week and move northeast, giving the entire East Coast additional heavy rain.



Stan's wake
Stan dissipated this morning over the Mexican mountains, and his circulation is pushing onward into the Pacific Ocean, where a new tropical storm may form. Little enough of Stan remains in the southern Gulf of Mexico to allow a new tropical storm to form there later in the week, although the NOGAPS model is still calling for that to happen.

Stan's onshore winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean into his center caused a major disaster in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Mexico. In Mexico's southernmost state of Chiapas, a river overflowed its banks and tore through the city of Tapachula, destroying numerous houses. Guatemala is reporting four dead, Nicaragua nine dead, and 49 have been killed in El Salvador by mud slides triggered by heavy rains. The death toll will undoubtedly rise much higher, since Stan's remains will still generate rain over the area for two more days.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico has diminished, and tropical storm formation is not expected here or anywhere else in the Atlantic through Thursday.

I'll have an update about 3pm today when the Hurricane Hunters arrive at the storm.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So Savannah should expect a lot of rain from this one?
That's what I've heard. They're also predicting upwards of 2" in my area...
Tammy gonna give us a whammy?
DR.MASTERS THIS IS THE 19TH NAMED STORM, NOT 18TH
19th named storm

1.Arlene
2.Bret
3.Cindy
4.Dennis
5.Emily
6.Franklin
7.Gert
8.Harvey
9.Irene
10.Jose
11.Katrina
12.Lee
13.Maria
14.Nate
15.Ophelia
16.Philippe
17.Rita
18.Stan
19.Tammy
Morning all, the weather guys had us for rain until Sat. since Tammy went North, We may have SUNSHINE!! It is a truly beautiful south Fl. sunny day so far.
Whats going on with the system coming off the Yucatan... heading NE?
1995 had 19 as well so were are tied with 1995 but it was 19 not 18.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Check out the water vapor loop. Tammy's getting to be a big girl.

B
Wonder if we'll really get that 2" of rain over here...
yeah rx but the cenetr is on the west side of the cdo and i belive the cenetr may reform further east. this couldcomplicate the forcast track and intensity as she will be over water forlonger. isuspect a landfall in ga as a strong ts. winds in the 60-70 mph range
palmbeacher, cannot say the same...nasty clouds outside...I knew they should have called her a depression last night...I stayed up late hoping..but I guess NHC was tired as well and didn't want to deal with her until this morning....
Dr. Masters,

could you please explain why your forecast from yesterday differed so much from what actually happened overnite with the formation of TS Tammy.

"I believe that this system will not develop into a tropical depression at all. Instead, the disturbance will interact with an upper-level low pressure system and cold front on Thursday, and become a large--and very wet--ordinary low pressure system."

i was having a difficult time following your thoughts yesterday, with the mention of subtropical storms, or even just an ordinary low.

was it just that the models were unreliable due to the circumstances (stan, the time of year, location, ec?).

just trying to understand how this unusual storm Tammy developed.

thanks! :)
Stormy, yesterday it was nasty here, today its the oppisite, we are still in a flood watch though until Sat. I bet they will discontinue it. We may get a few showers but I don't think anymore than that.
well stormy shw was not a closed circulation last night. its was evedint in radar imagery. she was however a strong low pressure system. in the last 6-8 hrs she has transitioned into a closed circulation and since she was so strong anyway she was classified as a ts. her cenetr is still quite dissorginised but with the blow up of convetion she is showing signs of reorginising
Im downloading a javalink this AM in hopes it fixes my problem...right now, I only have one radar Link cause its not java...after I get my computer some coffee (ie download), Ill be up and running better...
Hello Tammy...........Isnt it amazing...nothing last night...........Tropical Storm Tammy this morning.......if it heads inland as the NHC says........I might have to take a ride up......since its so close .....why not....radar presentation is looking better....St. Augustine maybe the spot.....
Link

Any opinions on this system coming off the Yucatan?
rlenz, models been calling for a system to develop near the yucatan for days now. the problem is what type of system. since the ull is deeping in the gulf it is likley to e extratropical and get pulled into the trough now moving down from canada. but we will see what happens. would not be suprised if it was tropical but right now thats unlikley
good, daytime lefty...Ive missed your input :-)
Well, I know the winds blowing in last night were pretty strong, had a couple gusts could have swore were 40mph. Its actually quieter here today...winds must be further N in Jax.
weatherboy- reckon the raifall prediction over here is right? Just wondering if I should go get my umbrella...
agree thelmores...I asked the same things at the beginning of that blog yesterday...but no one can be completely accurate...maybe he meant it would skip the tropical depression name and go straight to tropical storm, as it did???
well since she orginsed over night stormymost of her winds are in the convection to her east. i suspect all that will wrapp around as the shear relaxes more and she gets betetr orginised. i am calling for a cenetr reformation further east. its the likely response ion a sheared system when the shear relaxes, how far east will determine kandfall location and strength
Watch what is growing in the Yucatan challel.
rlenz,

looks like TS Vince to me! ;)

don't be suprised if this storm isn't named today as well!

appears things are happening fast ladies n gentleman! :)
thelmores

the problem is complex. first the enviroment was in 20 kts of shear. very unlikley for a tropical cyclone to form,next interaction with an ull in the gulf and a upper leverl trof that was an old ull. this complex situsation led to the formation of a very strong area of low pressure with some good gales. it wasmentioned by a couple of us last ngiht that if the shear relaxed and a closed circulation developed she would likley be a ts. now the porblem was track. she was forcasted by all models to cross floridaand move into the gulf. the gfs had her moving north but never formed a closed circulation. well what happend was a blend of all themodels. she did form a closed circulation and the high moved off the coast earlier alowwing her to move north. this has led her to stay over water and form into a ts.right now she is only 20 or so miles offshore so that likley hood of her forming was lol. but thats why u can neevr be certain with these things.
they system in the yucatan channel is a long ways form being anything. right now there is no surface low and no surface circulation. it is also in a sheared enviroment. all this means that for a tropical system to form it would takes days not hours. next it is likley it will form into a subtropical or extar tropical system becasue of its enviroment and interaction with an ull and a troough that will be moving thru in a couple of days
Lefty...been a while...how are ya my man. Let's say for the moment you are right on with your prediction of a GA land fall @ TS 60-70. What kind of time frame would you estimate?
Anyone have the link to the buoy by the Yucatan?
tybee, 36 hrs or so.
here is the link to the buoy. as u can see the pressure is rising not falling. its 29.71 but most likley so low do stan.

Link
it was wild on cnn this morning. at 5 (edt) they were talking new info that TD21 had just been classified.... about 45 minutes later cnn said Tammy was now a TS. Will be interesting to see how it interacts with upper low right below pensacola... will it steer it or envelope it? exciting. Yea for rain !!! No winds yet in mid SC.
Good morning all. Inland NC could use the rain from Tammy. I hope it stays as predicted and leaves me out of it.
Thanks Lefty! We already have a sustained NE at 23 gusting to 33. Rain like H#!!. Good to know we could have some time if that scenario plays out. We are in a TS warning area currently.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

yucatan basin
its cool tybee. we will nomore in a couple hours when we get the next model runs out around 1:30pm
hey lefty, i think this storm could go as far north as savannah......
Well...I got to do some work....but if things work out....maybe st. augustine or jacksonville, depending on landfall....the lastest radar loops are showing some intense storm cells in the NORTHEAST quadrant of Tammy.........If I go, I will try to get some good pictures.....I wouldnt hold your breath.....It may not come a shore in Florida.....we will have to see.....
if tammy turns towards land, it could be on-shore by 1:30.......
thelmores

i doubt it but its a possibility. motion looks to be more north right now than nnw and with possible cenetr reformations who knows. i just think the track the nhc is a little south. we will see.
Mandy......If your in Tally......then I dont see you getting that much rain....but you never know.....Im going to probably skip my lunch so I can leave early....just depends on how Tammy looks around 4pm....Its only a 2.5 hour drive to jacksonville.....later
Good morning. It's been raining all night here. Our road is underwater. Husband left around 4:30 for work. Took him over an hour to get to work(normally a 20 minute drive). Roads were pretty bad. He said that it was raining so hard that you couldn't see the road. Had to pull over several times.

It's calmed down quite a bit in the last hour. No rain, just cloudy with no winds. I live about 50 miles SW of Jacksonville. I guess I can expect the day to get progressively worse??
at 16% download...urrr!!!
I agree lefty, the latest radar loop seems more north motion....

current motion could even be a landfall as far north as south carolina.....

buts thats fine, a minimal storm, we could really use the rain, particularly inland south carolina.

columbia has gone over 30 days with little or no rain......

we need a good soaker! :)
leftyy420 said:
DR.MASTERS THIS IS THE 19TH NAMED STORM, NOT 18TH

Thanks, I've corrected my tally.

Tammy's formation is a surprise to me, I thought that the 15 - 20 knots of shear was too high to allow tropical storm formation today. My thinking yesterday was that this system, would track more westerly across Florida, and that we were more likely to get formation off the west coast of Florida. If this had been the case, the storm would have been more likely to be a sub-tropical or non-tropical storm (baroclinic). As is it, Tammy is somewhat sub-tropical--the winds are well removed from the center--but getting more and more tropical this morning, as the maximum winds move towards the center. The distinction is not important in this case, since any of these storms would have brought a heavy rain event to the Southeast, which I tried to point out in yesterday's blog.

Given the high complexity of the situation, surprises are to be expected. Our skill in forecasting in situations where a tropical system is interacting with an upper-level low is poor.

I added a line to my blog about the cloud blob emerging off of the Yucatan:

Some moisture from Stan has also broken off and emerged into the Yucatan Channel, but wind shear in this region is too high to allow a tropical storm to form. Southwest Florida needs to keep an eye on this system, which may cross the Gulf of Mexico today and slam the west coast of Florida with heavy rains and high winds on Thursday.

Jeff Masters
Wow, woke up today with a TS bearing down on us. The wind and rain are really starting to pick up. I just went down to the beach and the ocean, she doesn't look happy. It was running about 25mph sustained but a squall moved through with gusts to 40. When I got home my power was out, though, a transformer had already blown... :(
MAN, not one darn loop is available to me...I really hope this download is worth my time...21%
So, I get to view static pages....but here in Titusville, the sun has come out, like we are in the calm of the storm...I think this thing is pulling further north of me....no winds no rain...
wow Savannah, Power out already! Thats not good. Usually takes a little more than 20 mph winds. Hope you get it back soon
Morning ya'll. I suppose I can expect conditions here in jax to deteriorate as the day progresses. Rather boring right now, trees dripping, no definitive clouds, just gray and barely drizzling. No breeze to speak of, either.
Waiting to see what the school system decides to do about tomorow. I'd like to hear any opinions about what I can expect here in the next 24 hours or so.
Like I said earlier Stormy, Was awful and getting worse, now the sun is shining and just a slight breeze here.
Hello all from Titusville, I think the worst from this storm was yesterday. Anyone notice the SPAG1 weather tower at 31.38N 80.57W? It is showing 40 kt winds.
Dr. Masters, thank you very much!

I find myself lucky to have your thoughts in this blog. Thanks taking the time to do this blog.

I look foward to each and every one of your blogs. With so much information on the internet today, it is extremely fun to follow tropical development. And judging by the popularity of this blog, I am not the not the only one who enjoys it!

Kudo's Dr. Masters! ;)
aquak, its hard to say as its an evolving situation. i will say that if it takes the track the nhc has forcast jax will likley see 30-40 mph winds and rain. the hardest hit would be to ur north where the bulk of the winds and heavy rain is. now that could change as the system is still orginising so we will know more when recon gets there around 2pm and we get the next model runs around 1:30 pm
Gotcha Lefty. Someone jumped the gun on that one. I realized you were joking and I am sure Jeff did also. I enjoy reading what you have to say. I have no knowledge of the weather, I just live in it. So, I come here to learn and get opinions different from what I get on TV.
yeah palm, i wouldn;t have known it was 19 if i had not talked about it yeaterday and heard them say 19 named storms 10 times already on twc. but peoplelove dr.masters like a god, they would kill for the man lol
yeah, so much for a nice, rainy day in South Florida.. of course, I didn't set up my guys for much work since it sounded like it would be a wash-out. Oh well..
Went outside this morning, 5am, and knew something had changed from last night. We had absolutley no wind. I am near Cocoa Beach by the way
billsfan, I was ready to take the day off and stay on the couch doing nothing. What a bummer when I woke up and no rain or wind.
okay, need help...
why is the system so dry to the s/w?
There good chance that rain will start wrapping as the shear lets up?
Is they eye east of Cape Canaveral or Melbourne?
Thanks!
Heh, palm you don't know Savannah Electric. We have the worst power grid I know of. Just a stiff breeze from an afternoon Tstorm knocks the power out for half the county for 6 hours, lol.
65, whats up? I thought we had a storm yesterday, but right now, I beg to differ from the view out my window...but it is meandering off our coast...I can't tell if its close to me or further south of me....help?
stormy, on radar it looks like the center is north of the cape now.
Savannah, my boyfrind works for FPL and they do work hard, just not good stuff to work with. Its just what is not underground doesn't last to long in the wind. Hopefully you will get it back on quicker than it takes us to get ours on after a storm.
Thanks lefty. I appreciate everyone's input.
If that blob/remnant of Stan doesn't develop I think we'll see its moisture pulling into Tammy and filling the rain shield.
strmy where are u at.


its dry to the sw due to the convection being sheared. as it movesnorth it will likley wrap motiure around but the north and east side will be the worse as usual.
Palmbeacher.. you must be on a stronger FPL grid than I am.. my power goes out all the time.. even when Charley hit the West Coast last year, a stray feeder band came through and blew out the transformer.. no power for 16 hours!
stormy, it's almost on the coast. My son was upset this morning, because he wanted stronger winds than what we had yesterday.
Wow. Just got up to take a leak and I find Tammy. Knew we had a TD at least, but had no idea she would be named right off the rip. This could get intresting for me Lefty. Slight N jog or reform leaves her over the Gulf Stream longer.
savannah, tammy will be well inland befor that blob makes it to her. that blob is likley to get pulled into the ull more than anything. i think ti will form a weak extratropical syste, that wille ride up the cold fron and spawn the copastal low off of nc.va coast later in the week. that storm will ride the fornt and depepn and be a strong nor'easter for new england
Billsfan, now a live off a main Feeder wire, so I am in the clear, they are put back on first. Last year, no such luck. 14 days after Frances.
Hiya Lefty!
You need to understand that we bigmouths are ALWAYS gonna take some flak. This inc's Dr. Jeff who has gotten some on his own blog in the past. Your post wasn't inflammatory so ignore anyone who is trolling.
::G:: To err is human, to forgive is divine. (or something like that)
65 she is not almost on the coast and in thelast 2n hrs she as moved more nne or north than nnw as is the forcast motion. i personally belive landfall will be in ga in 24-36 hours as a strong ts. 60-760mph winds
StormJunkie: Wonders never cease. :-) Looks like South GA is getting pounded...
Right now it is just off coast east of Titusville. Outer bands into st augustine. Clear south of Cape, most heavy shower is on east quad.
I think lefty could be right about the center reforming more to the NE. I think I see a circulation within a strong group of storms to the NNE of the center. Just due east of Daytona on this radar. Link
hey sj. sorry i was not on last night. dude majopr problem with the cable company. turned my stuff off. dunno what they are doing down there lol. i had to call them this mroning at 6am and 5misn laterr i was back on lol.
Everyone, what is to stop this from being another Ophelia?
What is going on with the center in radar? Reforming? Just don't see the clear center like we did earlier.
Much closer to the coast Jazz. Even if it reforms it would have a hard time making it N of Georgetown SC prior to landfall. And different steering currents.
leftyy, just looking at the radar and making an observation.
Link
nothing will stop it jazz, its coming right for you
palmbeach - I think FPL workers are great!
Here we have prop owners who REFUSE to allow tree trimming and BAM there goes the service. Not FPL fault, altho' there is some really poor infrastructure as well... so at ADMIN level they need to take hold of situation. And w/out another rate hike please...
Back from vacation. It's nice to see that those batting .000 are still whiffing the ball just like before I left.

yeah sj, i belive its reforming.


the fact that she is not stuck in weak steering currents. she is moving quite well, just exact track is not known and in 2 days she will be whipped north by a strong cold fron and with a system in the gulf help to create a strong coastal low off of nc/va. that coastal low apears to be a tsrong one specially with all the energy she will have to use when she develops
Yea Lefty, I hate it when the cable goes out. Knock on wood. Have not had that problem in a couple of months.
jazz Tammy is boogying right along at 16 mph, not weeble woobling...
holly moses lefty..... 760 mph!!!!

better board up here in myrtle beach.....

a catagory 20 superhurricane! LOL

she still appears to be headn north..... looks like the storm is attempting to wrap storms around the center..... this will be key for strengthening.....

i better get some work done! LOL
I was surprised the center formed as far north as it did! The proximity to the coast - no. But last night thought it would be nearer to our area for a center...
Looks left, Look right. Did I smell ignorance?lol.

Anywho if it reforms could we expect a nward jog in track? Say Sav? Maybe a hair N?
GACK!!! thelmores, where'd THAT comes from???

WOW!!! Our baro is at 29.78 and RISING!!! First time in 24 hours it's been doing that, I think!!!
Then there are the batboys who don't even get to play in the field.
Weeble wobbling!lmao.

:)CGHG
AT 13Z THE CENTER OF TAMMY PASSED OVER NOAA BUOY 41009...WHICH
REPORTED A PRESSURE JUST UNDER 1004 MB. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY
AND NWS RADAR INDICATE THAT TAMMY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT
12 KT. THIS RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK MAY BE A RESPONSE TO
THE ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION...WHICH REMAINS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TAMMY IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE CENTER WILL JUMP OR
REFORM TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION. THE 00Z
CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON TAMMY
OVERNIGHT...AND I AM GIVING THIS MODEL MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT
OF WEIGHT THIS MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BECAUSE TAMMY IS MOVING
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA COAST...AND BECAUSE MOST OF THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...THE
PRECISE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LANDFALL OF THE CENTER IS OF
RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPORTANCE.

DOPPLER RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS ALOFT...ABOUT
35 KT. BASED ON EARLIER SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS THE INTENSITY IS
PRESUMED TO STILL BE NEAR 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE STORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE JUST
A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO
PREVENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

TAMMY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
TWC - 28.9 80.3 N14 same winds
Pretty much nailed Stan before leaving. Also, anyone seen a Heat Potential map lately? Maybe the resident expert lefty can explain to us all what happened to all that energy that he predicted would reform in the loop current. That Cat 3+ hitting the Gulf Coast is not loking too promising for you lefty. Good thing you know a bunch of fancy pants jargon.
lol 60-70 mph winds. she is moving north now, and probly more nne than north but not nnw meaing landflal wi,l be more north and later than forcast.

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boy, looking at the canadian model referenced in the nhc discussion, this IS gonna be a real soaker! LOL
Hey SJ!!! YOU folks introduced me to them! Remember I was *culturally deprived* by growing up in the islands??? ::wink::
lol sj, u go boy lol
The latest 12Z (8am EDT) wind shear analysis from CIMSS shows that wind shear has dropped to 10 knots over the remnants of Stan that have pushed into the Yucatan Channel. We need to keep an eye on this system as it approaches Florida tomorrow. Not much time for it to develop, though, particularly since the shear will remain, thanks to the upper-level low to its north in the Gulf. The shear remains 15 - 20 knots over Tammy; she's not going to be able to intensify much.

Jeff Masters
After the reform would you expect a NNW or NW motion? Or do you think it will stick to the N and slightly E of N motion?
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

AT 13Z THE CENTER OF TAMMY PASSED OVER NOAA BUOY 41009...WHICH
REPORTED A PRESSURE JUST UNDER 1004 MB. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY
AND NWS RADAR INDICATE THAT TAMMY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT
12 KT. THIS RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK MAY BE A RESPONSE TO
THE ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION...WHICH REMAINS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TAMMY IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE CENTER WILL JUMP OR
REFORM TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION. THE 00Z
CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON TAMMY
OVERNIGHT...AND I AM GIVING THIS MODEL MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT
OF WEIGHT THIS MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BECAUSE TAMMY IS MOVING
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA COAST...AND BECAUSE MOST OF THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...THE
PRECISE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LANDFALL OF THE CENTER IS OF
RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPORTANCE.

DOPPLER RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS ALOFT...ABOUT
35 KT. BASED ON EARLIER SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS THE INTENSITY IS
PRESUMED TO STILL BE NEAR 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE STORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE JUST
A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO
PREVENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

TAMMY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN
OH! CR**!!!
Sorry thelmores!!! I just repeated you!!!
StormJunk - what's wrong you don't want to discuss heat potential in the gulf?
Wait- I'm confused- the remnants of stan are approaching florida?
sj a nnw with maybe a turn more north in repsonse to the approaching trough and if she does slow down some she may never make it onshore befor the trough start to transition her to extratropical and she gives her enrgy to the developing coastal storm
LOL, the official movement is N at 14mph, but the 3-5 day cone shows a nnw motion......

that tells me the models coming out later will show a landfall between savannah to charleston, sc
there is an orange blob sitting off the Yucatan Peninsula that appears to have been a spin-off or something of moisture from Stan that has alot of shear going on that will bring buckets of rain and some windy to SWFL sometime soon...
The 6Z (2am EDT) GFS model run pushes the Yucatan disturbance into the Ft. Myers, FL area at about 2pm EDT Thursday (18Z).

Jeff Masters
Maybe I never noticed or been in the right place/right time but its nice to see the Doc taking a active role in the blog.

And for the record Doc you get serious karma from me for you tale in the hurricane hunter. Doing that takes King Kong sized stones..
My head is spinning now trying to find the center on Melbourne radar. I see at least 3 areas which look like circulation centers, including one which is practically on top of Oak Hill right now. Which one will win out?
either way, sav to sc are on the dirty side and gonna have some major crummy weather...

sun's sort of out, gonna run some errands. catch you all later!
ugh i just got up and heard Tropical Storm Tammy and I look at the models and they're split...of course lol...and the historical tracks go in every direction possible
dr.masters. this is from the hc 11am disscussion

MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE JUST
A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO
PREVENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.


now is her motion continues to be more nroth and she is over water longer witht he ships calling for her to 60- in 24-36 hrs to u see that she could be a strong ts at landfall
I second that dap on the Hugo Hunter ride Dr. Masters. I was in Charleston when he made landfall and as much as I would love to take a ride in to one of these beasts, I don't think I would have wanted it to be that one.
"The shear remains 15 - 20 knots over Tammy; she's not going to be able to intensify much."

hey Dr. Masters, thats sounds familiar from yesterday, i guess these storms can even surprise the experts at times.

it would seem the more nortward this storm goes, the shear decreases?

Tammy may still have a couple mre surprises for us before landfall! ;)

the particular location of the storm makes it extra difficult.

before the last couple years, it seemed so unlikely that a storm would hit the east coast of florida, but it has become common in the last couple years! LOL
shi[ps fprcasts 60 mph in 24 hrs and close to 60 in 48hrs. so to me the more north the track the stronger she will be
Does anyone have a link to the current models on Tammy? The only one I saw was BAMM.
::sigh:: and now the good news for SoFL (I didn't leave quick enough!) is... MORE RAIN!!!
:::VBG:: Thanks for the excellent updates, Dr. Jeff!!!

The 6Z (2am EDT) GFS model run pushes the Yucatan disturbance into the Ft. Myers, FL area at about 2pm EDT Thursday (18Z).
sorry my post should say ships forcasts 60 mph in 24 hrs and close to 70 in 48 hrs
I agree lefty. Further N the longer over the Gulf stream and the lower the shear becomes.
mandy thats the only one we have till 1;30 pm. so u have to wait 2 hours
Mandy, we will not have any models that have run since Tammy formed until between 12:30 and 2. THose are the models we need to see as models do not handle unformed storms correctly. Just look at the models from the past several days of this area.
Still though wouldnt the ULL in the Gulf eventually push Tammy to the NW..The furthest north possibly GA...Of course the worse weather over GA and SC...
Whats up SJ!?! Tybee Bomb watching closely yet again my friend! HA!
Yikes, Ft. Myers? Hope this thing doesn't turn into something fierce. This isn't payback because I pissed ya off earlier is it Lefty? JK
Here's the latest from the local weather guys here in Jacksonville:

"JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Tropical Storm Tammy formed just off Florida's east coast Wednesday morning and was expected to bring heavy rain to northern Florida and parts of Georgia for the next couple of days.

The system was upgrated to a storm just before 7:30 a.m. after hurricane-hunter aircraft found winds of 40 mph in what just a tropical wave about 20 miles east of Cape Canaveral.

At 11 a.m., the system is 40 miles north-northeast of Cape Canaveral, or about 130 miles southeast of Jacksonville. The storm was moving to the north at 14 mph. Forecasts expect a turn to the north-northwest with some reduction in forward speed later Wednesday, bringing the center of Tammy near the St. Johns County coastline late Wednesday.

"Due to the angle of approach to the coastline, the specific location and time of landfall of the center are uncertain," the National Hurricane Center advisory says. "Additionally, most of the strong winds and heavy rains are located well to the north and east of the center of circulation."

A tropical storm warning has been issued from Cocoa Beach north to Santee River, S.C., meaning tropical storm conditions are expected in those areas within the next 24 hours"
yeah wg but if she is slowing down and moving north she is farter away form alnd, and by time she finally makes landfall in ga the trough will be comming thru to pull her north and trnasfer her enrgy to the coastal strom
The NW motion is expected or at least NNW WG03, but the question is does the center reform to the E a hair like it appears to be doing. If so then land fall further N. Sav looks like as good a point as any right now if you ask me.
Thanks, all. I'll keep my eyes out for them. Wonder what would happen to the "blob" coming in from the Gulf after it hits Ft. Myers... weren't they predicting (not that it matters anymore, obviously) that what is now Tammy was going to cross Florida and go out into the Gulf or am I getting systems mixed up again?
Current steering winds would suggest that...Link...Hard to see this system going to far north, but eventually NNW and NW...
whats the deal with the low level circulation that spun into cape canaveral on the latest melbourne loop?

does these storms just respawn a new surface low?
What's up Tybee. Yea, you were not around, but I put the bomb on alert last night.lol
no naples not at all lol
Link
it looks like Tammy's moving due north...what's supposed to cause it to turn NW into FL/GA??
is it just me -- or does it seem that the real "KICK" has fizzled out of the tropics for the year? Yes, there alot of tropical activity at the moment but the storms are nothing of the magnitude we saw earlier in the year. --- Opinions please!! ;-))
That's funny SJ!! How is your weather up there? We have rain like H#!! and a 20 mph sustained NE with gust just over 30 already. Bombs a rockin' with the ocean the way it is. HA!
does anybody else see what i was taling about on the short range loop from melbourne?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml

?
yeah wg. u should know that a developing system is hard to pin down liek this as the cenetr reforms usually closer to the deepest convection wich would be more east.


yes llc will reform and sometime 2 or 3 more small vortices will spin up at a time. this is part of the formation of the storm. thats why preliminary tracks are useless until we get an exact cenetr fix and motion and couple model runs. we will know alot more at 2pm when recon gets there
Dr. Masters......I have been looking at the visible from the Yucatan, and I see what appears to be a mid and upper low slowly moving off to the east. Will the shear die down enough to allow this to develope or will the west coast of Fl just get a lot of unorganized wind and rain? Thanks
Yes and Yes thels. Weak systems reform centers.
thelmores - thats what I have been puzzled by for the past 30 minutes. It looks like a fairly well defined circulation, but the center of the rain shield is moving away to the NNE.
about half way from daytona to melbourne, it looks like a low pressure spral headed inland.

was this the center of tammy at one time?
Light winds and rain is about to push in in the next 2 hrs.
SavannahStorm...where are you located?
yeah well we will see, it still looks like it will just be a TS...Shouldnt be too bad, alot of rain and some wind, nothing we cant handle along the coast..LOL..
it had to be the center, that just spun off, and a new LLC is re-deloping further to the east.

it is just rare to see a circulation spin off like that.... or is it?
I geuss it is not fair to assume anything huh Tybee?lol.
Midtown Tybee, but at work on the southside right now. ;)
Houstonian: I think that Katrina and Rita used up all the warm water. :-)
looks to me like the center has/is about to reform further NE in the deeper convection and the storm is moving due north. what's the reason it's supposed to turn NW?
I was wondering the same thing weatherdude, if it is supposed to be here by 2 pm Thursday, will we see a depression or a TS?
why do I wanna say SC landfall.....
thelmores and others one more time pay close attention.


when u have a weak or developing tropical system u will have cenetr reformations. they take time and don;t just pop in in 2 frames. next when a reformation begins small circulations will spin up sometimes 2 or 3 of them. one usually closest to the deepest convection will become the domminant one as the others spin down. thats what ur seeing. if u look hard i am sure u can find 2-3 of them. thats hwy its hard to see whats exactly going on with this sytem right now. thats why we are waiting for the recon to get an exact fox on thje cenetr of lowest pressure. motion is n and possibly nne and this is due to the reformation opf the cenetr probly ne of the old one. this is what happens in weak systems
Leftyy you are too funny...LOL...They are just learning, be patient..You are there leader..LOL..
thanks, leftyy. should the center reform and move NNE...where do you think it would end up? or is it too early to ask that
Lefty, thanks for one more time! LOL

Lefty, you could just make auto replies! LOL
Houstonian you are correct. The heat potential in the Gulf is waning for the year. It has been a point of some contention here between our pseudo experts and the honest novices. But if you view a map of the heat potential it's pretty obvious to anyone with a modicum of logic that we are not going to seen any more monster storms in the Gulf this year. The heat map has changed very little since Rita moved through the Gulf.

Look here
Obviously Tybee for me. This will be soaker SavannahStorm, either way. You guys don't do very well with a lot of rain in midtown do ya? The streets seem to flood A LOT...even in a sprinkle! HA! The ocean out here is very upset...and the high tide this am ran about 1 foot higher than listed on the tables.
lol wg, i am laugfhing so hard lol. evefry post si the same

omg i just woke up and there is a ts. is that the cenetr. is it over land lol. i love days like this.


j/k yal;l i am happy to explain every one. i am mad cause i burned my finger smoking a cigg while typing lol
i think ga in 36-48 hours. maybe sooner maybe later. maybe more north lol. who knows

the outflow of tammy seems more organized, save the south-western side, so it would seem we are watching tammy strengthen a little, despite the shear.....

will be interesting to say the least when we get an aircraft in there! ;)
HAHAHAHAHAHHA leftyy
LOL Lefty!

get some burn cream...... and where is the center now? LOL
I thought it was great that here yesterday we had sustained winds at 20-25mph and all of this was just a wave....get up this morning with a TS and no wind LOL
I know leftyy I let you do all the typing..LOL..i am at work dont have time for too many explanations..LOL..
The Navy just put up 93L. 93L
Fogive me guys, when's recon going into Tammy? In time for the 2pm update?

This is what I get for working and blogging at the same time...
Well we are ready to get blasted again by another squall..hang on..LOL..Not too bad though feels like a warm noreaster today..LOL..
oo TWC just updated their track...it's a little further north and east but still making landfall on the FL coast
Oh and leftyy cut out the smoking..not good for ya..LOL..
now while heat ahs been taken out of the gulf the gulfloop has been building back and as you can see the area that stan was over is as warm in heat content as most of the gulf and he had rapi development to cat 1, so the gulf in most places could support a cat 3 maybe higher. houstonian the problem is earlier this year everything just developed with eprfect conditions. thats rare and what we see now is more like what should happen in a regular season. if somehting was to get into the gulf or carribean with perfect caonditions we would see a major cane. the problem is this time of year shear values increase in the gulf and in the carribean as we see now


heat content befor rita



heat content today




heat conetnt right after rita
img src="http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/data/2005268/hc_tmi2005_268.zoom.gif"
Alright need to get back to sleep for a couple of hrs. I'll hit you up with those redundant questions when I get up Lefty.lol.
sorry missed one

heat conetnt right after rita
img src="http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/data/2005268/hc_tmi2005_268.zoom.gif">
Good morning all. I have been uses Dr. Masters blog as a source of information for some time and thought I might throw my 2 cents in. I believe the biggest threat to FL in terms of intensity is the remnants of Stan. There is definate circulation to the west of the main convection directly over the Yucitan moving to the east northeast. I expect rapid development through the day. And a tropical storm by tonight.
Yea, Tybee. Regardless of where the center ends up it will be a soaker for the next 48 hours or longer. I just hope it doesn't end up like 1994 when there was 7 feet of water at Waters and Victory Drive. I can't remember the name of that system, though... It was the same one that had coffins floating down the streets in Albany.
lol ok one more time

heat conetnt right after rita



hey everyone...still havent slept..lol
wg shut up man lol. u sound like my wife
hey chaser man wassup boy
After Rita and 10/5/05 look just about identical to me. I don't have the highly trained eyes of an expert, that's just my uneducated opinion.



Lefty, you are partly right about Tammy. There may be an attempt to reorganize farther northeast under the convection. However, that spin on the radar along the coast south of Daytona IS Tammy. As far as I can tell this is a fairly well defined center and there are no other little swirls in radar view. The convection appears to be getting sheared off to the north and is not pulling the center with it.
lefty..you are so right about us having so much in common. I was just explaining about reformation of the center earlier of a strengthening yet disorganized system such as the wave before it became Tammy.
"Houstonian you are correct. The heat potential in the Gulf is waning for the year. It has been a point of some contention here between our pseudo experts and the honest novices."

Sorry to feed the trolls all, but...

Wannabe (apt name) massive heat potential is not required for a Cat 3 storm, which seems to be the nit you want to pick. The temperatures are picking back up due to the loop current, as you'll see if you look at the heat potential animation here:

NOAA Carribean Heat Potential Loop

There's a reason hurricane season ends December 1st...and there have been big storms later than that.

Hope it helped...
If you go back and view the comments on Dr. Masters previous blog...you will see what I mean..lol
Savannah, I THINK that was Opal. I lived just outside Atlanta then and the flooding we had there was amazing as well. I can only imagine it here.
"I'll have an update about 3pm today when the Hurricane Hunters arrive at the storm.

Jeff Masters"

MAN...... CANT THEY GET THERE SOONER! LOL

we need some new data! :)
leftyy...can you explain for me the heat content and the center replacement on Tammy. LOL just kidding
i was going to tell you chaser, i ahve a 4yr old daughter and as 1 year old son. we certaintly have alot in common
SCStormWatcher sorry to disagre with you, but you are incorrect about the heat content in the Gulf. Only a very fast moving cane could support a Cat 3+. The chances of another cat 3+ striking the gulf coast this year are slim to none as I have been stating since Rita.
Hawk, this is what i thought too! but there is little doubt a new center will for further north/east

"There may be an attempt to reorganize farther northeast under the convection. However, that spin on the radar along the coast south of Daytona IS Tammy. As far as I can tell this is a fairly well defined center and there are no other little swirls in radar view. The convection appears to be getting sheared off to the north and is not pulling the center with it."

Some NASTY rain bands just offshore of Tybee. Should be here in an hour or so. Link
In Steve's blog, he talked about the remnants of Stan getting back into the Gulf and treatening the Florida panhandle in three or four days. NOGAPS and GFS seem to be pretty consistent. What do you guys think? We may find out how much potential is left in the Gulf.
man, it almost looks like the LLC is over daytona now?

hmmmm......
The spaghetti models thus far show Tammy coming directly over my Florida barrier island coast just north of St Augustine. We have been having rain and wind squalls here since yesterday with heavier rains today. My street tend to be the wind tunnel of the area, since the wind comes off the ocean, over a golf course and directly cown my street.

I am finding your discussions of possible track movement N to NNE encouraging and will be following the updates of Tammy closely.
No one is talking about likely hood wannabe. The gulf COULD support a Cat 3. Given the right conditions. You made no stipulations about forward speed or any other crap. You are just wrong so get over it.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.


that makes the cenetr ne of cape canaveral, not rthe swirl u guys are refering to on the radar
Anyone know what Bastardi is saying?
I'm sorry Storm did a Cat 3+ form in the Gulf and strike the US Gulf Coast while I was napping? You seem to have some kind of social disfunction.
28.58N -80.64W thats the cordinates of cape canavril and well to the east of the reported cenetr of circulation.

its it an orginisation phase and there are 2 or more circulations and thats why we need recon to verify exactly where the cenetr is
WTF?

I take a few days off from stopping here and watching the TWC, only to discover that FL is going to be taking it from both sides? Tami on the E, and Stan's leftovers on the W? I feel like im about to be violated!

And lefty - could you explain to me again about the whole center of circulation? I've been watch the radar for about 10 seconds, and I swear the center went from the Cape to Dayton and then back out to Bermuda. :- )

JV
StormJunkie, likelihood is one word not two. You can't blame that one on a spell checker. Please learn your native language.
Looking at the melbourne radar loop......two scenarios....the center appears to be half on land just north of Cocoa.......there is radar echos(light) spinning.....that is definitely a circulation...whether there is another futher out trying to fight this one.....which can happen especially in weak storms such as this......kind of a mess......I dont know what to think....or whether to chase something that is all over the place......Here on the west side of orlando..winds are calm and skys have broken and its getting hot....humidity is way up there.........
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.


that makes the cenetr ne of cape canaveral, not rthe swirl u guys are refering to on the radar
question-if the remnants of Stan reform, it'd get a new name, right? (Vince)
"SCStormWatcher sorry to disagre with you, but you are incorrect about the heat content in the Gulf. Only a very fast moving cane could support a Cat 3+."

How am I incorrect about the heat content when it can clearly be seen in the animation I linked? Do you have eye problems?

"The chances of another cat 3+ striking the gulf coast this year are slim to none as I have been stating since Rita."

The chances of one "striking the Gulf Coast" are only somewhat related to heat content. There are other random factors such as whether a storm will form at all (not well understood) and what major weather factors affect the track. My point is that right now, the heat potential in the Gulf is about the same as it was for Rita, and Rita became a CLASS 5 hurricane. Plus, the heat content will continue to rise for a bit before it begins to wind down for the year.

You can contest the facts all you want, but they remain facts. I'm done with this conversation.
Storm:

What is a "hood wannabe"? Is that someone trying to act like they're from the ghetto?

JV
Lefty, that may be where the NHC estimated the center an hour ago, but that is not where it is now. That swirl on radar is the center. If the center was out over the water at 28.9 80.3 Titusville would not be reporting a west wind like they are now. Put radar, satellite, and surface observations together and they all point to the radar swirl being the center.
TWC just showed the storm tracker radar with the line showing the track of where Tammy has been...and the center is that swirl in the deeper convection...and has DEFINATELY turned NNE. the center is NOT that little swirl on the coast
take out a map and find the location of the cenetr. its not easy to use radar right now as its a orginising system once again

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.


that makes the cenetr nne of cape canaveral, thats about 40= miles to the nne or so. thats well offshore and moving firther off shore with every minute as she moves north as florida is orientated nnw so any northmovement takes it further from the shore line.
Weathermandan-

Yes, the remnants always get a new name, especially in this case where the actual storm is still alive (barely).

Unless, of course, the storm is named Ivan. Those they just keep renaming Ivan infinately.

JV
hawke, there are a few circulations roatating around. thts why the have west winds but thats not the main cenert of the storm as i exoplained befor.
lefty, it would seem to me that if the center of Tammy was not the swirl near daytona, then than swirl woul be moving off at a faster speed.

Link

for the moment at least, i see the center on or near the coast between cape canaveral and daytona.....

if i am wrong.... won't be the first time! LOL
SCStormWatcher like I said I am no expert likje yourself so please excuse my stupidity. But when Rita and Katrina and ADennis hit the blue shades in the gulf prior to landfall all 3 weakened considerably. There is a lot more of that blue in the gulf (am I color blind?) and very little orange and red. I guess I thought taht meant that there was less heat potential, but clearly you know more.
Again wannabe you have said the Gulf can NOT support a Cat 3. The bottom line is it could. NOT THAT IT WOULD.

I geuss if you consider a low tolerance for complete ignorance a social disfunction, which many do in this day and age of milk and cookies for the ignorant, then yes I do have issues.
Unless, of course, the storm is named Ivan. Those they just keep renaming Ivan infinately. LOL
Not just 93L....94L too....
Someone mentioned the stuff Steve said in his blog about the possibility of a Stan-ish reformation in the gulf that may head for the Flordia panhandle. With a system possibly developing from Stan's remnants off the south coast of Mexico and another piece of Stan's remnants possibly trying to form something in the Yucatan channel area, I think the "storm developing in the Bay of Campeche and moving into the panhandle" scenario is not likley. More likely is a scenario in which the Yucatan blob combines with the upper level energy over the gulf to form another lopsided system that pumps a lot of rain into south Florida.
thelmores

u guys are assuming this is a very orginised system its not. its barley a ts. so its very unorginised and the swirls u see are all controling the storm in a way. in 6 hrs or so those other swirls will wind down as the system orginises its cenetr. those swirls are all actiung togetehr to creat the broad circulation we see. so they are all moving togetehr to the north at 12-14mph.
StormJunkie, your reading comprehension is not very good. It has been a little while since I was here so let me refresh your memory. The cat 3+ only has to weaken below major hurricane before it strikes the Gulf Coast. That was the prediction and I stand by it - the waters around the coast of the USA will not allow another cat 3+ to strike this season.
Weathermandan-

Here's a link to Ivan. The dashed blue line is where a piece broke off and wandered back down into the Gulf, only to renamed Ivan when it formed into a tropical storm. Im still not sure why they chose to call that Ivan . . . hence the joke.

JV
Wow, we have yet another investigative area at 7.5N/ 35W. This is 94L. Could we use all the names. Bring on Alpha?
wannabe, rita and katrina both were going thru eye wall replacement cycles and had dry air intrusion, not low heat content as there weaking and dennise went over shallow water. there are many factors to why a storm weakens or strengthens and heat potential is only one of them. thats why intensity is the hardest thing to forcast
Attention all, its a weak TS...We have noreasters that are worse then this, as leftyy would say RELAX...LOL..
Even moving at 18 to 20 mph wannabe?

As far as your prediction you MAY be correct, but you have stated it as fact on several occasions. Predictions and fact are different. Get a dictionary.
lol wg thats funny
Another thing to note on the center: This bouy Link reported due S wind at 11:20 and is located at 28.5 80.17. As of 11 NHC put the center at 28.9 80.3. Which indicates that in those twenty minutes the center was still off to the NNE of the bouy, not already on land like the radar swirl.
wg, watch the coastal nor'easter this complex spawns. i think it could be a monster for the ne later this weekend. love this stuff
personally -- i could care less about what Bastard "i" has to say anymore -- hes out for SHOCK value instead of true forcasting - he was pathetic during Rita's approach and it seemed all he wanted to create was more widespread fear and panic than was neccesary - he refused to change his forecast track even when it was obvious Houston / Galveston were not going to take adirect hit -- Ive chalked him up to someone who desires attention more than actually forecasting the weather accuratly and correctly
ok guys..i have been away checking out the radars IR images etc.. and its obvious that the NHC is using the circulation as the definate center which is clearly visible on the Melbourne radar south and east of Daytona although I believe its 50/50 whether a new center forms under the deep convection to its north and east. this will make all the difference concerning landfall and strength..if it doesn'y reorganize under the deep convection expect a ne Fl./ga. landfall as a 50 mph tropical storm or so...if the center moves underneath the deep convection..look for a stronger storm and a landfall farther north possibly charleston north. Right now the center is definately moving north with wobbles a little to the west then bk to the right...this is why pinning down a landfall of a disorganized and developing system is so difficult. Not withstanding, we have a storm more or less parralleling the coast.
Thanks for the link SavStorm...that does not look good. My house is on Chimney Creek two up from the Crab Shack. I face the open water and marsh so it is windy here even on a clam day. LOL.
Thanks Lefty420 I didn't realize that the heat potnetial maps with lots of huge areas of blue were just produced for artisitc reasons. This is why I am putting your predictive abilities to the test - did you take a class in weather weaseling?
Lefty, I agree with your analysis of the tropical situation >90% of the time, but not this time. I see absolutely no other swirls on the radar. On the contrary, I see a well defined center on radar and the visible loop confirms this. Yes, I am aware that lopsided disoranized systems like this tend to develop new swirls within the convection that eventually rotate around a broader center. However, I do not see that happening right now at all. It may happen later, but not now.

I put the center at about 28.95N 80.66W, moving north.
Valence:

(From wikipedia): However, the NHC gave this storm [TD 12]a new number because a second disturbance merged with the remains of Tropical Depression Ten on August 20, and there is no way to tell whether the remnants of Tropical Depression Ten should be credited with this storm. (This is different from Hurricane Ivan in the 2004 season, when the NHC ruled that Ivan did indeed reform; the remnant of Ivan that regenerated in the Gulf of Mexico was a distinct system from the moment Ivan originally dissipated to the moment it regained tropical storm strength.)
if you look close enough the radar swirl is clearly offshore and further offshore than earlier as its south and east of daytona.
Hawkeye -- youve hit the nail on the head in my opinion -- no offense LEfty but i have to side w/ hawk ont his one
Hey:
You guys speculating about these monsters arriving at a certain intensity category is less consequential than you are assuming. If you get 15 hours of horizontal moisture, even at 75-100 knots, everything becomes mush anyway.
I am here in St. Augustine, our strongest gust has been to 39MPH, and so far almost 2 inches of rain...But not too bad, we have noreasters in the Fall and winter with 50 mph gusts..
wg, watch the coastal nor'easter this complex spawns. i think it could be a monster for the ne later this weekend. love this stuff <--I live on LI...I guess this means nasty stuff for me lol
the center has not reformed...its offshore moving north..no doubt about it..its a matter if it reforms under the deep convection..only time will tel..thats why the NHC issues advisories no closer than 3 hours apart and we are here trying to forecast minute by minute...lol.. and keep in mind a storms forward motion as well as its direction isn't based on short term (less than 3 hours) but is the average of at least 3 to 6 hours.
I predict weather will happen tomorrow.
caneman...how can you make such a strong prediction like that???? LOL!!!!
Weathermandan,

LI?? As in Long Island, NY?
Good morn./aftn. all,...or is it?
Had to rest last nite a bit...wake up to more rapid developments..

vortextrance, ..I'm getting same sickening feeling on the YucaStan system. Sat imagery impressive, nice outflow already...hvy convection seems wrapped around a POSSIBLE surface low..hard to tell as of now.

Lefty, thanks for that buoy link...Take a look at the recent past obs from that buoy..pressure rose as Stan went in, fell earlier this morn when winds were S, ESE...pressure now rising w/ W winds.

From those obs and sat review, I sense a forming surface low passing NW of buoy...Think I might have detected LLC as of 14:15 UTC near 20.5N 86.5W moving NE at 15 mph.

Rainmaker TS Tammy has everyone's attention, understandably so, but....NO mention of YucaStan on TWC, very little guidance from NHC.
At least Dr. Masters is keeping abreast..I only disagree on timing...

SW FL - Keep an eye on this developing situation...
The GFS or what ever the red one is has it crossing FL then out into the gulf then back in to FL, could that happen
Caneman- these off the wall predictions insult my intelligence!!
ya -- lol -- caneman .... I predict 100% chance of rain tomorrow, somewhere!!
in tropical meteorology...the experts aren't right 50 % of the time more than 12 hours in advance so its safe to say neither are we...thats why we will be right sometimes and incorrect on other occasions..its an inexact science and will continue to be..thats what makes it so fascinating and difficult when I chasing the storm..every wobble on radar determines if I will get the core of the storm.
I have a sophistcated program that gives me a bird's eye view of weather happenings.
Its called my window.
yes, Long Island, NY
I'm in PVB and agree with you weatherguy03, this is a mild storm thus far compared to some of the nasty nor-easter's I remember over the past 15 years or so...
What a cute little storm! My guess is that Georgia's immunity holds--landfall between Hilton Head and Charleston. 998 mb 50 kts.
Doc...i was looking at the VL of that system, and I ahve been having a hard time finding a surface low, it has the mid and uppere low. I think it is just a matter of time for the surface low to develope
All this talk about the exact location of the center is fun, but pretty irrelevant. The center is very weak. All the action with Tammy will be in the form of heavy rain and gale conditions with the huge blob of moisture to the north and east of the center. Basically, the entire east coast will have a lousy end to the week.
Question for caneman- if you are right and there is weather tomorrow, will it be wetter where it rains than where it doesn't?
Weathermandan,

Just curious I am upstate NY (ie Rochester area). People are funny in that they think all NY is is NYC. On 9/11 my folks called wondering in if I could see the smoke from the towers from my house (LOL).
Link
Yucatan models
actually madden the latest gfs forms a weaker low complex that traves inland along the coast so it mught not be so bad. if the coastal low does form it could be a bad one but it looks like it might form more inland and be more of a rain maker
47%
all we can be 100% sure of is where the storm is now and which direction its moving at the moment..a wobble 15 minutes later and the projected landfall point is now miles farther away. right now...the center is not under the deep convection..it is the swirl offshore south and east of daytona closing fast on that latitude.. right now hawkeye is right....in 3 hours..the center may reform under the deep convection and if that happens.. don't expect a Fl. landfall. even with its current motion youre looking at a ne Fl./Ga. border landfall north.
Question for caneman- if you are right and there is weather tomorrow, will it be wetter where it rains than where it doesn't?

My computer models say this is a distinct possibility. The CSE (Caneman Super Ensemble) is collating data as we speak.
Appears the eye is just S. of Daytona beach...
but leftyy, the GFS also has the storm jumping west across FL...which to me seems unlikely...so without the jump I'd assume it stays over water and is worse...? which is more likely?
recon is in the storm now. vortex soon
madden what are u talking about? what jump west across florida?
Link

looks like showers are starting to wrap around that swirl between cape and daytona..... i still believe this to be the center of circulation.....

sorry lefty! LOL
Yeah Doc you can really see the spin over the Yuc. Pen. with the enhanced RGB Image. Hopefully the convection will not be able to wrap around this so the only thing FL has to worry about is a lot more rain. But that is the best case scenario I am afraid. Here's the RGB link. Zoom to the west of convection.
Link
My CSE collation is nearly complete. Results will be posted shortly.
the GFS has Tammy move across FL and go into the Gulf
gfs moves her inland near f;/ga border while a new system develops in themiddle of the gulf. that system hits the panhandle and both systems are abosrbed into the front and a barclonic or extratropical low forms and moves north along the front into new england. here is the link to the gfs

Link
Lefty you think GA or SC?

I guess people are already talking about Vince, or should we call him the Son of Stan?
madden i dunno what gfs ur looking at but hers the leatest gfs thats comming out as we speak

Link
ga looks good, south ga probly just north of the border
right now the center that the NHC is currently plotting is the closed swirl with very little convection around it which will pass by daytona moving to the north but not too far offshore but offshore nonetheless
SO WHEN CAN WE SEE THE v STORM?
The surface center(swirl on radar) is now clearly visible on the visible satellite loop now that the convection has withered and been sheared off to the north and east.

Link
That makes us prime time lefty!
ok I see the center now and thanks leftyy I see that now too lol. but I still have this question: if Tammy is moving north...what exactly is supposed to kick it NW? extrapoliation would take it into southwestern SC
yep lefty..what I have been thinking all along..fl./ga. border north with current circulation center..in leftys defense guys...if that center dissipates and a new one develops underneath the deep convection and becomes dominate..then we are looking at a stronger storm much farther north..don't be surprised if recon mentions there might be two centers down the road..but more likely that the one we all see on radar is going to remain dominate..id say 80/20 based on current conditions.
vortex is out

URNT12 KNHC 051635
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 05/16:18:50Z
B. 29 deg 08 min N
080 deg 49 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 35 kt
E. 007 deg 056 nm
F. 074 deg 039 kt
G. 355 deg 108 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 20 C/ 302 m
J. 23 C/ 335 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0121A TAMMY OB 03
MAX FL WIND 39 KT N QUAD 15:42:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C, 002 / 15NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR CENTER.
FLAT TEMP GRADIENT.

Hey left I do not believe the low that the GFS has forming over the Gulf is new. I think its the spin that is currently over the Yucitan to the west of the convection in the Caribbean that nobody (mainly the NHC) thinks is there.
cenetr fixed at 29.13n and 89.82w

thanks chaser but i don;t need a defense lol. i said 20 times we need to wait for recon to fix it. nd thats why i stopped talking about it till recon got there
right now it still has a tendency to move just west of due north which would mean a southern ga. landfall most likely..right now its a complex pattern strong high to its north and and the strength of the high will determine if it goes in fl./ga border with current center or wakening high would allow it to hug coast and move into sc
The storm so far--

Oct 2 1.08" rain
Oct 3 0.81" rain
Oct 4 6.78" rain
Oct 5 2.52" rain

Total so far 11.19" rain
vortextrance

yes thats what i see and what it is. i was saying new in response to it not being the low of tammy. if u look at the link u see the l from tammy dissapear and l in the gulf appear. thats why i referred to it as new, and as of right now there is no surface low with the yucatan blob. that is also why i refered to it as new. i believe we will see a low develop in 24 hrs or so but there is not one right now
vortextrance, Yeah, we'll have to see if the convection also maintains itself thru this aftn. I feel we may already have TD22. We can only guess.

Wow, I see Dr. Masters is alert as well w/ his update...
looks like one for my coast :/
the vortex data messages list coordinates that are different than the ones you will see lidted by the NHC in its advisories..note the last comment..little convection near center..they have fixed the center as the one we are still talking about lefty.. honestly, i havent investigated why the coordinates are different but they are..i have been viewing vortex messages for years now,,just like Wilmingtyons airport is listed at 77.5 degrees longitude but its actual statue coordinates are 77.9.
Hey when the center gets over my house I will let ya all know..LOL..
The St. Simons weather station has not been reporting since 1 a.m. Oct 4th. This is the Brunswick station, which is about 7 miles inland on mainland and has much lower winds. The barometric pressure readings over the last hour are suggestive. Link
Got a question for the group, isn't what Stan doing the same as Ivan that part got broke off and curved back around to hit Texas and it got to keep its name. What makes Stan different other than Stan might become a Pacfic storm?
Link
...! west??
chaser thats cause the nhc fixed the cenetr using radar and earlier today it was fourther east but as we have seen in the past 2 hours it reorginsed alil more west. i suspect another or more reorginisations as its a weak system. thats why we use recon to get a betetr fix on these things. so now we have a good idea where she is based on all the data.
ok guys its been great as always..im late picking up my little girl from preschool...have a great day if I miss you guys later..last prediction before I go,...Tammy will make landfall anywhere between fl. and cape hatteras or out to sea..just a hunch.. :)
I know lefty..its the same center I have been referring too on radar very close to daytona.
i might be misinterpreting the discussions earlier but nothing has changed from my view of the obvious center and its fixed right where it should be...hopefully it will reorganize and move this way..lol
a peice of ivan did not break opff. it was the actuall surface circulation and was tracked on visible satelite for over a weak befor it blew back up. the peice of stan was actually a combination of convergence from stan and the ull that persisted long enough to now be self sustaining. stans llc dissipated hours ago over the motuians and what remains has started to enter the pacific thats the difference. i use to have a loop somewhere of the llc of ivan traveling all the way around and back into the gulf. will try to find it
Masters has an new blog
peace chaser
What, no Dr. Masters' bashing in last hr? Some people on here just need to relax a little bit. Tammy is a minimal tropical storm with flooding potental along the SE US coast. Does anybody remember Ophelia? The NHC had this one going through Central FL, then Jacksonville, then SC, NC etc. Nobody can call these things exactly & weather conditions change continually. If someone sticks his/her neck out on here with a prediction, no need to rub his/her face in it if it comes out wrong.
With regard to the Yucatan blob. The strong convection has persisted off the coast for several hours this morning. Now the visible loop clearly shows a good mid-level spin emerging from the Yucatan as I type. As I said in an earlier post, this all leads to the formation of another lopsided tropical system that moves across south Florida. Satellite also shows an upper level trough digging way down into the gulf with the trough already reaching the northwest tip of the Yucatan. There is a thin area of lower shear currently over the convection that is out over the nw Caribbean, but the approaching upper trough should keep enough shear over the system to keep it from becoming too strong.
gotta go but leftys absolutely right about Ivan ..maintained its circulation crossing over fl and reentering gulf..
have a good day lefty..thanks.
Lefty,

Thanks for the clarfication on that
Hawkeyewx, Right..YucaStan is currently in a better lower shear environment, and if continues NE movement - into higher shear which should lead to slower development, but we'll see....

Looks like we need to divide bloggers into 2 focus groups. LOL

Back in couple hours.....
to me, this forecast track looks very similar to Ophelia (except faster). the only difference is that the trough forecast to pick up Tammy is supposed to be more negatively tilted than the trough that picked up Ophelia, which would send Tammy more in the direction of southern New England rather than just brushing and going out to sea...correct?

(Tammy still moving due north, getting slightly better organized: Link )
DocNDswamp ,

What two groups do you purpose?
the initial forecast track is similar to that of Ophelia's and I think it'll follow a track similar to Ophelia is what I mean to say******
oriondarkwood,
Group 1 - TS Tammy...
Group 2 - Yucatan system...

Gotta run...be back couple hours....
DocNDswamp,

OIC have a good one
Does anyone still have that pic of "drunks with guns"? It was a picture in Texas after Rita.
Ok I am in St.Augustine, thats it all done...Bye Bye Tammy..LOL..That was my 8 hour TS...LOL...
Some more off topic questions by request. (LOL)

1. If a woodchuck could chuck wood, what would the beaver be doing?

2. Who would you bet on in a fight between 2 cat5 hurricanes in NYC?

3. Where is the best place to get in a fight: MTV Deathmatch, Beavis and Butthead's living room, generic woods where Bugs Bunny lives or Hell in a Cell in the WWE?