WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

New threat near Barbados; Panama disturbance fizzles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:19 PM GMT on November 13, 2005

The tropical disturbance that has festered over the waters between Panama and Nicaragua the past three days has dissipated, and tropical storm formation is no longer expected in this region.

A new area of disturbed weather has developed about 80 miles south of Barbados this morning. A low level circulation center is apparent near 12N 59W on both visible satellite imagery and an 8 am EDT QuikSCAT satellite pass. Deep convection associated with this 1007 mb low is mostly to its north, where the QuicSCAT satellite saw winds of up to 35 mph. Wind shear is quite high for tropical storm formation to occur, about 20 knots, but this shear is expected to decrease over the next few days. A tropical depression could form as early as Monday as the system crosses the Lesser Antilles islands into the eastern Caribbean. It is more likely, however, that development would occur Wednesday or later as the system moves into the central Caribbean.

The models are not gung-ho on this system, except for the Canadian model, which brings it quickly to hurricane strength just south of Hispanolia on Wednesday. The GFS model doesn't develop the system at all, and the other models forecast a weak tropical storm in the central Caribbean by Thursday.


Figure 1. Early model runs for the disturbance near Barbados.

I'll have an update Monday morning, or late tonight if the system develops.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

damn still a chance that my island get hit :(
Interesting. I wonder: Is this the last gasp of a dying hurricane season?

Funny how a certain beer ads (the ones featuring sun soaked people laying in lounge chairs enjoying a pristine beach and clear ocean) never show the dark side of living in the tropics.



*giggle* Look at the LBAR.
Had to tcheck the canadian~ gloom & doom
just stay away from South Florida.. please... I'm signing a contract with a roofer Monday...
O.O at the Canadian.
NOOOO, I want to be the ONLY "Gamma" anyone is talking about these days! lol South Florida needs a breather for the rest of this year. This season needs to be over NOW.
Besides, I gave away all of the food stuff from my hurricane closet to a family that needed it so it is empty now until next June! LOL... Against the rules to have to restock in November...
can I get you some hurricane supplies to go with your Butterball? Why is it that they are still signing up those in Dade who need food stamp assistance, yet in Broward which was hit WAY worse and have many more in need has ended it's sign up period? unreal..
Jeez. At this rate, we'll have roof damage from our Christmas Trees.
you no all you only get 6 mo brak from hurricane then it start all over so do not far get that you only get 6 mo brak to do what evere you want to do and all of you down there need a brak from all the hurricane down there
11. dcw
8888888888888888889gg, could you please learn some grammar before you post again?
Jeez like come on now far give me lol
ok then you all get 6 mo of down time from no hurricane at all but only 6 mo of down time then it start all over next year so 6 mo and that is all so have fun with your 6 mo of down time of no hurricane
Argh...say it ain't so.
Screw you tropical blob. May windshear and cool SST ruin your life!
Go away!
DIE BLOB DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
147... which is your island???
I just got an email from a friend in Michigan whom I haven't talked with in a while, and he asked how we fared during this hyper-active hurricane season. Being somewhat superstitous, I should have known better than to think that it was close enough to the end of the season to say we've been very blessed this year...and yet I did let that thought bring a smile.

And sure enough, less than a day after thinking that it's finally over for the year, there's a new disturbance lurking in my neighborhood. ~sigh~

At least all of the early models indicate it won't pass too close to St. Croix. Thank goodness I didn't say, "It's finally over" out loud or put it in writing or we'd probably see Hurricane Gamma develop quickly and head more north than east to ensure that I'd learn my lesson about taunting fate and Mother Nature.

--CC

CC, we can NEVER tempt the fates can we?
Hang in there cc. There's a lot of us wishing we hadn't said or done certain things not to tempt fate.
My neighborhood this morning has a man with a big backhoe type of tractor and he is going around pulling up our tree stumps those that are sideways with half of the roots in the air; of course for a price, but when you figure out the amount of hours you would have to do it with "gardening" tools, it is worth it. Then next week they are suppose to come around and pick up all of those tree root/stumps he is pulling out today. What a mess. But you know what, everytime my Dad ask me when are you going to get out of South Florida, I tell him Never...I love South Florida, loved it long before I ever got to move here 26 years ago. If I do leave Broward after retirement in about 10 yrs, it will only be in South Central Florida between the Lake O and Orlando, to have a home on a lake. I love to go fishing. Can't go further north or my plants would die and I would freeze to death!
Wow the 06Z gfdl has this to 121kts in 126hrs (scroll right hit forward)
Nope, cgableshurrycanegal, the lesson is that we should always be humble -- being too self-assured is to invite a fall or, in this case, a fall hurricane.

And thank you, subtropic, I am hanging in there. It's been a heck of a bad year -- even though weather has been one of our lesser problems this year (~knocking wood, crossing fingers, etc. etc.~), you can count me in among those who will be pretty happy to see 2005 come to an end. You, and everyone who is waiting to exhale, hang in there too.

--CC
In 12 hours pressure in Twin Cities went from 897mb to 1014mb. We didn't even get the really cold air I expected either, altho definitely autumn temps (highs in mid-40s).

The SW Carib isn't done. Wait and see Mon night overnight, is my best guess. At the rate the LLC from 94L is going (it's got one foot in the Carib already) it's going to run into that wave in the central Carib before that makes it over to the SW. The convec that was assoc w/94L is going to slide down into S Amer later today. Maybe the entire mess will all pile up right in front of Colombia and Panama in a couple days.
Per everyones request the 12Z model runs have for the most part toned it down. The gfdl went from 121kts in 126hrs to not even developing her. gfs still doesn't see it. canadian not so threatning but still major, moving slower, a more ne track with Haiti gettin smacked. Good ol' nogaps consistantly showing panama devolopment. Ukmet ramps her up toward middle of Carribian, then turns n.
ukmet shows cat 2 hurricane in central carribbean, turning north past 5 days towards cuba and yucatan
this time of the year, "Cuba and the Yucatan" not what we in S Florida want to hear with how they take a dive toward the east once they get to that area this time of year.....
well it has to develop first, gamma, so i wouldnt worry too much yet. remember only 2 major models are forecasting even a ts from this system so i would just keep an eye out next week, but right now nothing much to be concerned about. in fact, even though you are right about the climatology of systems turning east this time of year, my forecast track would be west into nicaragua and honduras
Thank you atmosweather, sounds good to me! Keep Gamma out of harm to the population's way!
Now I must get back into my back yard and try to continue to make what use to be a tropical oasis back into something that is not a trash pile of twigs, branches, roof tiles, & leaves. The fence guy is back there now with hubby, trying to figure out where to start. We must get all of the blown down plants and trees out of the way for him. Insurance is paying nothing for all of this, the tree stump removals, the replacement fence around the pool, etc...They will pay for roofs but thank goodness, my roof is ok unlike our friends here that are dealing with that.
At Thanksgiving I must break it to the kids that this Christmas will be tight and probably only Cole and Rylee (grandson & granddaughter) will be getting a lot from Santa this year! They are good kids and will understand. Good luck to all of you out there that are doing today what we are doing in our neighborhood cleanup!...now if I can just stop coming into the office and checking this blog for a few hours in between watching the Dolphin Game maybe I can get a few more bags done up before dark! LOL
Gamma
correction, "Keep Gamma out of harm's way way of the population"
31. OGal
No more Gamma. It is our turn to dry out and straightened up all the stuff that needs TLC, so we can begin anew in June. Yuck!! Time to get to Target for the Christmas lines. We already have our Christmas lights up in Winter Springs. What happened to Thanksgiving??
curacao the middle
33. dcw
I think we have a depression, the convection has reformed around the center and shear is falling rather rapidly:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
follow the a98e line and you will see that is cross my island
35. dcw
:O The Canadian and GFDL are scaring me...both showin cat 4's...Lenny only going the right way this time?
yeah i see it dcw
147257 what island are you from?
i'm from curacao next to aruba when you follow the a98e it will go over my island in the middle :(
it the second dot on the map a98e line
I'll bet your island is beautiful but for now Hold on tight!

Everyone, is it just my computer or is it taking longer every time I hit F5 to refresh? It takes forever for the last few pictures to download these days. I have Comcast high speed internet but maybe something is wrong with it.
I don't remember it taking so long to refresh in the past. Help?
And the Dolphins just lost and they had a good lead for awhile against New England. If we could just have a quarterback again, like the old Marino days....It really spoils our Sunday Afternoons.
Hi gamma. I have DSL and no delayes here loading the pages.
* no delayes = no delays
Hello all...a repost from my blog...

BIG WOW!!! TWC showing incredible video from those horrible tornados in Iowa yesterday...from Russell Nance in Woodward Iowa. They're replaying it often...seen it twice now. Guy was taping leaves and stuff flying around his front yard...then walked around back to see his neighbors' houses destroyed!

Anybody heard from Hawkeyewx? I know he's near there in Iowa somewhere.
dcw

only models that even develop the system are ukmet and canadian and neither of them forecast higher than cat 2

are u talking about the 06z gfdl since it doesnt even develop on latest run?
45. dcw
I was talking about the 06z. Thought that was the most recent.
Subtrop thanks, but that does not help me. hopefully this is just a little problem and will stop soon! To me $50 a month for high speed should mean "HIGH SPEED"...but I am not really computer savy just know what I like..

Those tornados in the midwest for the last week have been terrible. Tornados are, I think, the worse of all of our natural nighmares, except for possibly earthquakes, no forwarning for any of those...
dcw...They run at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z...earliest to latest. Yeah I wonder about those models a lot myself. Way too much variation from one run to the next. They vary from being extremely useful to quite useless. Study the satellite loops...I trust what my eyes see..and I think I see TD 27. Been watching that wave for 3 days now.
*****This is from accuweather website*****


It appears that tropical system
near Barbados is going to develop. Looking at forecasted outflow patterns, while the system may be sheared now, its persistence means it probably will fight through and this could be a cat 2 hurricane by Thursday or Friday moving slowly west northwest through the Caribbean.



But this will be a long drawn out complex. The Canadian to be blunt is going wild run after run, and takes a hurricane up through the Bahamas and then up off the east coast. A rather simplistic, though possible scenario. My call is that this will still be in the Caribbean or put it this way, south of 25 north and between 70 and 80 west a week from now and that upstream changes during Thanksgiving week will be crucial in interacting with this in a way that would lead to a strong hybrid type storm, or perhaps a Wilmaish situation for the east coast Thanksgiving week. What I dont see though is a gulf threat northwest of a Tampa to Merida line, and as slow as this will go, we will have plenty of time to know even though it means it will be able to grow
cat 2 by thursday, thats just ridiculous. what sources do they have to back that up. it wont be until tuesday and wednesday that shear values for the carribean decrease enough for even slight tropical intensification! my forecast for this system is a 50mph tropical storm by midweek moving into central america
DCW, the convection you see is still confined to the eastern side of the Low Level Center. Visible loops show the rotation clearly visible ahead of the convection.
This comes from the UM website


...TROPICS...
POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR CARRIBEAN DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD WITH
A WAVE NEAR THE GRENADINES SHOWING SOME CIRCULATION AND A FORECAST
WWD TRACK INTO THE CARRIBEAN UNDER FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT
CONDITIONS. CANADIAN SHOWING RAPID DEEP DEVELOPMNT TO FULL BLOWN
HURRICANE APPROACHING SRN FL SAT WHILE GFDL RUNS ALSO SHOWING DEEP
INTENSIFICATION BUT A WWD TRACK ACROSS THE CARRIBEAN. OTHER MODELS
STILL JUST SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CARRIBEAN SEA. TPC/HPC COORDINATION KEEP A WEAK LOW IN THE CENTRAL
CARRIBEAN BY DAY 3 WED DRIFTING WWD THRU THE PERIOD. SEE TPC
OUTLOOKS.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN
539 PM EST sun Nov 13 2005

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...

southeastern Palm Beach County in South Florida.

* Until 615 PM EST

* at 536 PM EST...a Skywarn storm spotter observed several small tornadoes near Boca Raton. Radar indicated the showers spawning the tornadoes were moving west at 15 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Boca Raton

South Florida tornadoes may at times be small and narrow but they are still dangerous. They can easily flip a vehicle or trailer or cause large trees to fall. Take cover inside a sturdy building immediately.
at least the nhc are being sensible with this one. only people not forecasting significant development with this system. i agree totally with the nhc right now
OK...I just followed my own advice and took another gander at the vis, IR and WV sat loops as well as checking last discussion from NHC. I can understand the forecast problem w/ this system, since the apparent LLC has far outrun the wave...now showing just past Grenada near 12.3N 62W...This is the third relocation or reformation of a surface low in the last 48 hrs. Appears mid level circulation way east near 12N 58W, still on eastern side of heaviest convection approaching Islands.

Until the system gets it's low and mid level in sync it wont be classified as a TD. Will be interesting to see what happens overnite.
553 PM EST sun Nov 13 2005

...A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 615 PM EST for
southeastern Palm Beach County...

At 548 PM EST...multiple Skywarn weather spotters and the public have reported funnel clouds in the vicinity of Florida Atlantic University South Campus in Boca Raton. This tornado is moving west at 10 mph.

The tornado will be near...
Boca west and Boca Raton

Tornadoes can easily flip a vehicle or trailer or cause large trees to fall. Take cover inside a sturdy building immediately.

Lat...Lon 2640 8017 2642 8014 2642 8007 2636 8007
2633 8011 2634 8021 2637 8024 2637 8031
2640 8031

Expires:132315 gmt
i hav updated my blog with my wilma synopsis and story
615 PM EST sun Nov 13 2005

...The Tornado Warning for southeastern Palm Beach County expires at
615 PM EST...

No further reports of waterspouts...tornadoes...or funnel clouds have been received. Additional showers are approaching the Boca Raton area from the Atlantic Ocean...but additional tornadoes are not anticipated at this time.

Report severe weather damage to the National Weather Service in Miami.

Lat...Lon 2640 8017 2642 8014 2642 8007 2636 8007
2633 8011 2634 8021 2637 8024 2637 8031
2640 8031
atmosweather, please, you have to remember than many of us in South Florida suffered heavy damage with Wilma, many us have leaky roofs or roofs blown off. So we must monitor this more closely than ever as many, many thousands may face evacuation when it had never been a thought before.
Best to prepare for the worst..
Just a quick comment related to Dr. masters Blog about a system developing south of Barabdos. I live in barabdos and we've been experiencing torrential downpours from early afternoon. No thuderstorms. We're grateful for the water but there is some flooding occuring in low-lying waters. Have to go off-line now
sorry billsfaninsofla, i only meant to include my educated forecast on the system. believe me, i know exactly what u guys are going through and how carefully you are watching the tropics. i live in orlando and got hit with 3 hurricanes last year, and i was doing exactly the same thing. i only intend to help u guys out with my opinions
billsfaninsofla,
atmosweather was dodging tornadic T-storms during Wilma while tracking the storm here that night...he's well aware of any further tropical threat to FL. He made an honest assessment of today's observations and simply commented on what HASN'T developed yet...and so far it's good news. But you are right for all to remain cautious and aware of potential threats.

My take on the NHC is they feel currently this is the main area to watch for development...and the whole Caribbean remains under scrutiny this week.
And to compound the problem of evacs, I assume that many families, barring that they have power and a roof, will be traveling to our state for the holiday. I have some relatives coming down from the Midwest to take advantage of some late season sun. Hate to have to turn them around at the last minute.
Thanks.....but my concern is the NHC is normally way too conservative... and extra planning, IF needed, will need to be put into action.
I do agree also with the NHC and with Atmosweather's track prediction. I also feel the we will not see the effects of Gamma, if it even forms, here in Florida.
Hey everyone, I will continue to monitor this blog constantly during the next two weeks in hopes that nothing happens. I appreciate this information. Actually I had the radio on while outside and learned about the Boco Raton tornadoes from you before I heard about them later on the radio. I have a sister in Boca, but I am sure she is ok since haven't hear from her yet.
Gov, thanks for posting and keep us up on what is happening in your neck of the topics.
Billsfaninsofal, I hear ya. I don't even want rain right now. If plants need water, I got a water hose for that!
Too many of my neighbors have blue tarp roofs to have to deal with rain or storms at this time.
gamma
Amazing how much the models flip, 18Z GFDL peaks @ 128kts. Last frame has it at 112kts
67. dcw
:O 128 kt? Jeez... I really hope that one flops back, lol.
lol dcw that isnt realistic for this system and environmental conditions i dont think. id give it (and this is assuming this system develops at all) a 50% chance of becoming a hurricane, and depending on its track a 15% chance of being a major hurricane at peak intensity
69. dcw
Atmos, the conditions in the Caribbean are actually quite good if that shear dies down...waters are still 28-29C.
quite good isnt enough to support a major hurricane in november, yes the ssts are still very high and could probably support a hurricane in the carribbean but the oceanic heat content isnt high enough and the shear is still only going to be marginally favorable for development along the forecast path of gamma-to-be
heads up folks:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY... RADAR DATA... AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 85 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. LUCIA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER... AND ST. LUCIA REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. IF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER
...THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Snowboy,
Thanks for the info. Better to be informed and on the watch that to be caugh unawares....thanks, Gamma


73. dcw
We shall see, I think given the events so far this season we might want to call these things a little high.
Ok I just looked at Sat pic and I see two globs? one around the 70 and one around the 60...which one are we watching or are we watching both???
the main threat of development is with the blog along 62w and 13n
does anyone here know how to post pictures
atmos, we now have to worry about blogs as well as blobs?! LOL :-)
hey seflagamma, the blob of concern is the one right about over the island of St. Vincent - it's been perking up again this evening
anyone?
sorry guys, I said Blogs instead of Blobs! lol...good catch!
Which ever one it is, I want them to go away. LOl
Will keep lurking for info. Gamma
hi atmos, wish I knew how to post pictures, I can't even make live links yet - guess I'm just a technopeasant
Just logged on to catch up and I can't believe what I'm reading. Enough already, we need some post hurricane season down time! NO MORE BLOBS, GLOBS or GREEK LETTERS!
Hi all, just checking in. Don't like to see what is going on, but hope that atmos is correct. BTW atmos, Hills talked palmettobug53 thru it. I feel sure she would be happy to help you.
no no no seflagamma, you said "globs" and atmos said "blog" - how are we ever going to keep things straight if people keep introducing new terms?! LOLOL. Hope this dies down too but no sign of that - convection is perking away and oops, NHC just issued an advisory we have TD 27!!!!!


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005
0300Z MON NOV 14 2005

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 62.7W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 62.7W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 62.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.3N 64.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.3N 65.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 67.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.1N 68.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 72.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 16.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 62.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART
snowboy,
bug53 send me and others an email with all of the directions she got from Hill. I am keeping them so when I get a chance I will try my luck. Have palmettobug53 send you the info by email....gamma
Snowboy, you got mail....
so nhc are forecast the west and wsw trun later than i thought. interesting. i wont change my forecast though.
Thanks Bug53, I knew you would pull through!
Code, you got mail!
You're welcome, Gamma!
Links are easy. Got that on my own. I just can't do the ones that don't say "LINK" but have the title of whatever it is.
Thank you bug!! Send it to atmos as well, please.
Bug53,
now that you have done your duty about helping us post pics, can you please go to the Novelle and help us with our story line, it is really getting interesting but we are at a loss now how we want it to continue! Should Annie and Cole get hooked up or will it be Rylee and Cole. What about Billy? is he worth saving. And poor Mama???LOL
Td 27 has officially formed!!!
i can help u there, bug53

when u make the link, go to the end of the code and after the > of the url address replace "link" with whatever u want it to say
Oh, cool, Atmos! I'll write that down so the next time I wanna, I canna!
NOOOOO to Gamma. (except for me of course) I cannot believe we have our 27th tropical depression this year. Unbelievable!
thx bug
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AND RADAR DATA FROM
MARTINIQUE INDICATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE
AND BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT
14/0000Z... ST. LUCIA REPORTED SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 29 KT
...AND SHIP ZCBU6 LOCATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF REPORTED
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 27 KT. SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSES AT 00Z SUPPORT
A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 1007 MB... CORRESPONDING TO
APPROXIMATELY 32 KT. RADAR DATA FROM MARTINIQUE SHOW CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER... WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LARGE AREA OF -80C TO -82C
CONVECTIVE TOPS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SINCE 22Z. THEREFORE... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN
THE FORMATIVE STAGES... SO THERE MAY SOME ERRATIC MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND
THE CENTER. HOWEVER... THE GENERAL TREND BY THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO PROPAGATE
WEST-NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. AFTER THAT... THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED THE WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST... ALLOWING THE RIDGE
TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS
SHOULD ACT TO THE DRIVE THE STORM WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE 48-120 HOUR FORECAST PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE NOGAPS... UKMET... AND
GFDL MODELS.

UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. AFTERWARDS... THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT... AT WHICH TIME MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE
INTENSITY UP TO 66 KT IN 108 HOURS... WHEREAS THE GFDL MAKES THE
CYCLONE A 112-KT MAJOR HURRICANE AT THE SAME TIME. IT SHOULD BE
POINTED OUT THAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST WAS BASED ON
THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL FORECAST TRACK... WHICH TAKES THE STORM
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS COLOMBIA WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THEY ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP STRONGER THAN
INDICATED AFTER 72 HOURS... GIVEN THE MUCH LOWER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE 96- AND 120-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITIONS.

FORECASTER STEWART
Yeah, this is unbelievable! TD27? I mean, I know there have been many, many years when this has to have happened in the past, but that was before records were kept....... Really unreal watching this occurring, now that we have the ability to monitor things out to sea, where before, we couldn't.
hey palmettobug53, it is a wild season to be sure - hopefully this is a last wheezy gasp
For sure, snowboy! Lord knows, no one needs another hit!
To: TD 27
From: Caneman
Re: Go to hell! Do not pass go or collect $200. But go straight to hell!
104. code1
Hey Gamma, remember way back when, we laughed when they spoke of the Greek alphabet? Seems like yesterday now!!
What comes after Gamma, god forbid.
now now caneman let's not rile young TD 27
here's my forecast for td27

0hr- 13.5n 62.7w, 35 mph
12hr- 13.9n 64.4w, 40 mph
24hr- 14.2n 66.2w, 40 mph
36hr- 14.4n 68.2w, 45 mph
48hr- 14.5n 70.3w, 55 mph
60hr- 14.5n 72.4w, 60 mph
72hr- 14.5n 74.6w, 65 mph
108. code1
My sentiments exactly snowboy.
109. code1
Sorry snowboy, I meant caneman :)
lol caneman
... gamma, delta ...
hey atmos hope you're right with your prediction but I think you and NHC are both on the conservative side with this in terms of winds...
gamma, delta, epsilon, zeta, eta, theta, iota.....who knows how far we could go lol
Here's MY forecast for Gamma:
0hr- 35 MPH
12hr- 70 MPH
24hr- 145 MPH
36hr- 170 MPH
48hr- 220 MPH
72hr- 275 MPH
96hr- 400 MPH
120hr- 1000 MPH
144hr- the end of the world
115. code1
Oughta be against the law!!!
LOL torn wouldnt put it past him
117. code1
ROFLMAO torn!! Good to see you back in good form.
LOL tornadoty, let's hope it's not quite that bad. I'm off, g'night all.
And now for my ACTUAL forecast:

0hr- 35 MPH
12hr- 45 MPH
24hr- 50 MPH
36hr- 55 MPH
48hr- 65 MPH
72hr- 75 MPH
96hr- 95 MPH
120hr- 120 MPH
It's the end of the world as we know it...and I feel fine...
Ta! folks. Gotta head off to bed or I'll never get up in the a.m. for work. Catch you all tomorrow, and hope this thingy down there doesn't get nasty. The GFDL doesn't look good.
I remember back in August and September, laughing about having a TS or Hurricane Gamma. NO way it could happen. Now we have one right on our door steps! Delta comes after Gamma....How to I explain this to my grandchildren and granddogs if this becomes a bad storm???? How can "Gamma" do anything bad, a sweet, nice, little old lady like myself!
LOL, LOL, LOL....
hurricane by wednesday night?
night bug

ROFL quake
125. code1
Nite all you night owls! 4:45 a.m. CST comes early. Will check in before leaving for work to see your forecasts.
126. code1
Gamma, we won't hold it against you!
tornadoty ha ha very funny 1000mph wind ha ha not
Atmos, it's 2005 and the GFDL, which is currently in the scare the **** out of everyone mode, has been the most accurate model all year.
lol torn true but it has flip flopped incredibly during the last couple of days. the previous run didnt even develop it lol. the next run will probably disspiate it within 2 hrs or something! and then the run after that will call for cat 5 in 2 days
But Atmos, the same thing happened to KATRINA, RITA, and WILMA.
i would be shocked to see this become a major hurricane
Goodnight everyone. I will check in again tomorrow. I count on all of you keeping us up to date with all the "Gamma" information...goodness help us!
Will catch up tomorrow. Gamma

nite gamma
im out 2, nite guys will be back tomorrow with another forecast and other stuff
Good night.
136. dcw
WTF is the NHC thinking? 60kt in 120 hours? What in the world...try 48 hours.
The shear is the only thing holding it back the heat potential is certainly there. Shear drops long enough & low enough, it'll be a major hurricane easy.
I wonder how many major hurricanes have developed historically in November...if any...I bet that's something that Jeff Masters could address later tonight or in the morning when he posts next.
This thing has slowly developed under some rough shear~ last 5 day shear loop.
New post up.