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New Re-Analysis Sheds Lights on the Mysteries of Hurricane Camille

By: Jeff Masters 1:45 PM GMT on April 11, 2016

On the night of August 17, 1969, mighty Category 5 Hurricane Camille smashed into the Mississippi coast with incredible fury, bringing the largest U.S. storm surge on record--an astonishing 24.6 feet in Pass Christian, Mississippi (a record since surpassed by Hurricane Katrina's unimaginable 27.8' storm surge in Pass Christian in 2005.) Camille barreled up the East Coast and dumped prodigious rains of 12 - 20 inches with isolated amounts up to 31" over Virginia and West Virginia, with most of the rain falling in just 3 - 5 hours. The resulting catastrophic flash flooding killed 113 people, bringing Camille's total death toll to 256, making it the 15th deadliest hurricane in U.S. history. But just how strong was Camille at landfall? In NHC's original historical database, Camille was assumed to have become a Category 5 storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico, with steadily intensification occurring during the final 24 hours before landfall. This database had Camille making landfall with 190 mph winds, tying the storm with Super Typhoon Haiyan (in 2013 in the Philippines) for the strongest winds at landfall of any tropical cyclone in recorded history. However, Camille's landfall intensity was based on visual observations of the sea state from a hurricane hunter aircraft--a technique that is very inexact. Furthermore, comparison with other Category 5 hurricanes called into question Camille's assumed intensity during this final 24-hour period. So, just how strong was Camille?


Figure 1. Hurricane Camille as seen on Sunday, August 17, 1969, about eight hours before making landfall on the Mississippi coast. At the time, Camille was a peak-strength Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Thanks to a reanalysis effort by Margie Kieper of Florida International University and Chris Landsea and Jack Beven of NHC, published last week in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Camille has now been officially downgraded to 175 mph winds at landfall. The re-analysis puts Camille in second place for the strongest landfalling hurricane in U.S. history, behind the Great 1935 Labor Day Hurricane that hit the Florida Keys, which reanalysis showed had 185 mph winds and a central pressure of 892 mb at landfall. (The only other Category 5 hurricanes on record to hit the U.S. were 1992's Hurricane Andrew--165 mph winds and a 922 mb central pressure--and the 1928 “San Felipe” Hurricane in Puerto Rico--160 mph winds, 931 mb central pressure.) Category 5 hurricanes have maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or greater.


Figure 2. Ships beached by Hurricane Camille's record storm surge in Mississippi. Image credit: NOAA photo library.


Figure 3. The most intense world tropical cyclones at landfall, using the advisories taken from the National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) for the rest of the world's oceans. Both agencies use 1-minute averaging times for their advisories, as opposed to the 10-minute averaging time used to report wind speeds by most international weather agencies and at most international airports. Note that Super Typhoon Haiyan was originally assessed to have 195 mph winds at landfall by JTWC, but these were reduced to 190 mph after a post-season reanalysis. Also, Hurricane Camille's winds at landfall have also been reduced in a recent reanalysis, from 190 mph to 175 mph.

Revised understanding of a superstorm
The track of Camille had only minor changes due to the re-analysis; the big changes were all to the storm's intensity. Revisions to Camille were accomplished by obtaining the original observations from ships, weather stations, coastal radars, Navy/Air Force/Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA, now called NOAA) Hurricane Hunter aircraft reconnaissance planes, satellite imagery, and by analyzing Camille based upon our understanding of hurricanes today. The satellite imagery of 1969 was only marginally of use for knowing Camille’s exact position and intensity, because of poor navigation, coarse resolution, and spotty temporal coverage.

Camille is now thought to have reached its peak intensity of 150 knots (175 mph) shortly after a three-day period of steady intensification as the storm moved through the Western Caribbean, crossed the western tip of Cuba, then moved northwards to a position due west of Key West, Florida. As the storm closed in on the Mississippi coast, it is now realized that Camille underwent an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC)--a common occurrence in intense hurricanes whereby the eye of the storm contracts and grows unstable and collapses. The importance of the ERC—the cycle of temporary weakening followed by reintensification as the ERC completes and the new outer eyewall contracts—was not fully understood back in 1969, and would not be until a 1982 paper by Willoughby et al. Camille could no longer support its tiny 11-mile diameter eye when the storm was over the central Gulf of Mexico, and a concentric larger-diameter eye formed around the inner eyewall, resulting in a weakening of the hurricane to a high-end Category 4 storm with 135 knot (155 mph) winds. A hurricane hunter flight during this period reported a clear area that was possibly a moat that separated the inner and outer eyewalls: "Just as we were near the [eye] wall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. The concentric eyewall structure was also clearly seen on radar images.


Figure 4. WSR-57 radar image of Hurricane Camille from New Orleans at 1732 UTC 17 August 1969. Concentric eyewalls are seen, indicating an eyewall replacement cycle was underway. Check out this impressive 78-frame radar animation of Hurricane Camille's landfall the authors put together as part of the Supplementary Materials for the article. This is probably the earliest radar animation of a hurricane ever constructed.

As Camille approached landfall in Mississippi, the storm apparently was able to recover from the completion of the eyewall replacement cycle, taking advantage of light wind shear and very warm waters to re-intensify to a Category 5 storm with 150 knot (175 mph) winds in the 12 hours before landfall. These winds were concentrated over a small area, about 15 - 20 miles in diameter. According to the paper, "A pressure of 909 mb was measured by Mr. Charles Breath at the onset of the eye in his home just west of the bridge in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, which was about 3 - 4 miles east of the landfall point. This marine aneroid barometer was subsequently tested and determined to be accurately calibrated. The 909-mb value had been the accepted central pressure value at landfall….However, Mr. Breath also measured a 904-mb pressure at a later point in the eye passage a short distance west of the first measurement….Given that the 904-mb pressure reading was taken near the eastern edge of the eye, a 900-mb central pressure is analyzed at landfall." In an email, lead author Margie Kieper told me: "In providing portions of the interview with Charles Breath Jr, I particularly wanted to show his understanding of barometric pressure, how it related to the intensity of the storm, how important it was to keep the barometer calibrated, and his reaction upon seeing it drop dramatically when Camille's eye approached.  I wanted to show the authenticity that gave to the readings--how similar his understanding was to that of a meteorologist."


Figure 5. The Breath home in in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi three days after Camille, August 20, 1969. Camille's lowest landfall pressure of 904 mb was measured by Mr. Charles Breath at this home. Workers are seen moving surge debris and replacing the roof--minus the Queen Anne dormer that was blown off. Photo courtesy of the Hancock County Historical Society, Bay Saint Louis, MS and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Camille a rare hurricane that intensified up until a Gulf Coast landfall
While the re-analysis showed that Camille was not as strong at landfall as originally thought, it did strengthen from a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds to a Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds in the twelve hours before landfall. This behavior contrasts with many other major hurricanes that have made landfall along the northern Gulf Coast, which weakened prior to landfall. The paper notes that "All 11 hurricanes—most notably Hurricane Katrina in 2005—during the period from 1985 to 2005 having a central pressure less than 973 mb 12 h before landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico weakened during these last 12 h (Rappaport et al. 2010)." While the paper does not go into the reasons why Camille showed this unique behavior, I speculate that it was because of the storm's relatively small size, which meant that the storm was not able to suck in a large amount of air pollution particles from the Gulf Coast prior to landfall. Hurricanes that approach land are prone to weakening if they pull in large amounts of air pollution particles, which invigorate thunderstorms in the outer spiral bands, causing heavy rain that drags down cold air from aloft to the surface, creating pools of cold air near the surface that act to block the inflow of warm, moist air into the hurricane's core, thus weakening the storm. A 2015 post of mine, Air Pollution and Dust Credited With Weakening Hurricanes Irene and Katrina, describes the process in more detail.

Kudos to Margie Kieper
The first author of the paper, Margie Kieper, is a name long-time readers of this blog will recognize. Margie got her start in hurricane science thanks to this blog and Hurricane Katrina, whose storm surge she analyzed in a series of articles that appear in our storm surge pages. At my encouragement, Margie gave up her career in database management and enrolled in Ph.D. school in Tropical Meteorology at Florida International University three years ago. She has completed her prelims, and is working on her thesis project. The Hurricane Camille re-analysis paper showcases her thorough research methodology--Margie found a large amount of data on Camille that had previously been unknown, and doggedly slogged though the material to come up with what should be the authoritative final scientific analysis of the storm's track and intensity.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Fascinating blog today, thanks Doc
folks in the southern states,pay attention to this powerful storm coming next few days....
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON APR 11 2016

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF E TX...SE OK...SW
AR...AND NRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH AREA...FROM
E TX AND SE OK INTO MS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TX E/NE
INTO THE LWR TN AND LWR MS VLYS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.
Great Blog! I would never want to be the one measuring 904 mb in a storm at my house! How did he even have time to see it with action like that?! i guess he was inside when the calm hit and he could tilt back a totty and hope the wind reversal would make his day change for the better...
camille downgraded it does not matter. no doubt it will happen again one day.
Thanks Dr Masters for this insightful blog that bring much detailed information that many in this new generation didn't know about that beast Camille was.
Thanks for the update!

So the findings that Hurricanes are weakening near land due to air pollution is a bit ironic. Without air pollution we wouldn't have as warm water, but hurricanes would not weaken too much going onto land, but with air pollution, it causes more intense hurricanes due to warmer air but the air pollution weakens the Hurricane. That is confusing. Both seem to balance each other out in each situation.

The way Katrina unraveled before landfall as a high end Cat 3/ Very Low End Cat 4(Cat 4 is what I go with) was just amazing. Upwelling of cooler waters, Eyewall Replacement Cycle, Dry Air making its way into the core. If that hurricane would have struck New Orleans, Grand Isle and Biloxi at full force..... I do not even want to imagine how much more horrific that could have been. Katrina was like a bigger Camille, but while it had almost the same pressure at peak, and 15 MB above at landfall, if It would have kept its intensity like Camille and have completed its EWC 6 hours before landfall, that would have been bad and I bet it would have past by New Orleans as a 145-150 MPH Cat 4. I think there is something about the Northern Gulf Coast that just likes to kill and unravel hurricanes. Rita, Dennis, Ivan, Katrina, Gustav. Ivan was a Cat 4 before something happened that made it weakened, same as Dennis and Rita. Gustav was bound to weaken but they were forecasting it to make landfall as a Major but it was only a 105 MPH Cat 2 So many have weakened dramatically from their peaks due some of those conditions in the Gulf that seem to like to kill Hurricanes. Someone needs to do a study on why the Northern Gulf Coast kills Hurricanes when some, like Katrina were in almost perfect conditions to maintain intensity.
Good luck to Margie Kieper in her new career. Her analysis of Hurricane Katrina unfortunately reminds me of someone on the opposite end of the spectrum; someone who had the gall to utter "Brownie, you're doing a heckuva job" ten days before Brownie (sic) resigned in disgrace.
10. vis0
Thanks for the fascinating blogbyte Dr. Masters and thank you to M. K. for the hard physical & mental work.
Congrats to Margie Kieper, indeed! Impressive beginning to her new career.
Good Morning All...
Very interesting blog article Dr. Masters, thank you!
I had to take my HS Jr. to Defuniak Springs for his ACT test this weekend and while I was waiting I went to their downtown park which had a really nice spring fed lake. I noticed that the fishing piers where out in the water and that the pathways all led into the water.. It has not rained that much so I checked with a local and they said that the spring has apparently started flowing much more since February and that it has not happened in local memory... weird!



So now we know that there was an increase in T-storms in the outer bands due to unintentional "seeding" by air pollution particles - which reduced the intensity of some land-falling hurricanes.

Would this indicate a possibility for "purposefully" seeding the outer bands of hurricanes as they approach land? Or is the volume of pollution particles so large that such an effort would not be possible or practical?

(If the "pollution" is washed out of the atmosphere by the very precipitation is creates, that would be a plus, although it would be converted to land or water pollution.)

Considering the cost from the devastation and loss of commerce/production caused by hurricanes, it would seem likely that such seeding could perhaps be cost effective.

Has there been any serious and significant research into this set of possibilities?
Margie Keiper did a excellent 16 part series on Katrina's storm surge.

Katrina's Surge, Part 1
A Weather Underground 16 part series about Hurricane Katrina, by Margie Kieper.




For the remainder of the month, I'm going to take you along on a journey. We're going to travel the coastline destroyed by Hurricane Katrina's record storm surge. Because this is almost 200 miles of coastline, we'll travel about 10 miles or so, every day. This is something that has never been shown on the news or talked about, either in the overall, or in detail. What you'll be seeing here is what people on the Gulf Coast have been calling the “Invisible Coastline” for almost a year now.

For that entire year I've wanted to find a way to tell this story, but I always assumed it would be a book. When there were questions on the photos of the bridge in yesterday's blog, asking where it was, and what had happened to it, I suddenly realized what I could finally do right now. I checked the calendar and found that I just had enough days, before the first anniversary of Katrina's landfall. So, it seems fated.

And I have enthusiastic hopes for communicating the details of what happened to the readers of this blog, so that you can understand what it was like, as if you had been there. I was reminded of a passage from one of only a half-dozen novels that rate a special category of favorites; there isn't one that I haven't read at least ten times over:
Quoting 13. Xulonn:

So now we know that there was an increase in T-storms in the outer bands due to unintentional "seeding" by air pollution particles - which reduced the intensity of some land-falling hurricanes.

Would this indicate a possibility for "purposefully" seeding the outer bands of hurricanes as they approach land? Or is the volume of pollution particles so large that such an effort would not be possible or practical?

(If the "pollution" is washed out of the atmosphere by the very precipitation is creates, that would be a plus, although it would be converted to land or water pollution.)

Considering the cost from the devastation and loss of commerce/production caused by hurricanes, it would seem likely that such seeding could perhaps be cost effective.

Has there been any serious and significant research into this set of possibilities?


Yes, from a 2015 post of mine, Air Pollution and Dust Credited With Weakening Hurricanes Irene and Katrina:


Why not use aerosols to intentionally weaken hurricanes?
Since we’re pretty sure that aerosols can help weaken hurricanes, why not intentionally introduce small particles into a hurricane to control its intensity? That was the rationale behind a $1 million study by the Department of Homeland Security between 2009 - 2011, HURRMIT (The Identification and Testing of Hurricane Mitigation Hypotheses). Scientists with the project conducted a number of computer simulations on what would happen to a hurricane by intentionally spraying small aerosol particles into the storm using aircraft. They found that in theory this approach would work, with winds decreasing 20 - 30% for Category 4 and weaker hurricanes. However, the hurricanes had to be treated during an intensification phase to get these reductions in intensity; the effect was significantly less when the simulated storm had completed an intensification cycle and was fully mature. In addition, they found that putting too much aerosol into a hurricane’s outer rain bands thrust more water substance into the thunderstorm anvils, lowering storm precipitation efficiency and short-circuiting the reduction in surface winds.

It is quite possible that seeding a hurricane with aerosol particles can actually make the storm more intense, though. The authors of the Hurricane Irene study commented that if aerosols can manage to penetrate directly to the core of a hurricane, they can act to invigorate the inner eyewall and make the storm stronger. In addition, putting aerosols into a tropical depression in its formative phase can help it, since the storm typically needs an extra boost in cloud droplets to get going (however, the dry air that often accompanies aerosols from the Saharan Air Layer often destroys a budding tropical depression.) So, we’d better be really sure we know what we’re doing if we are going to be intentionally messing with hurricanes. I am very sure that we are not really sure, and that we should leave hurricanes alone for the foreseeable future!

Jeff Masters
Are we ever going to learn the new name?
13. Xulonn
11:26 AM EDT on April 11, 2016
This would be good for people along the coast but seeing how we've damaged the atmosphere/environment so far I think man needs to not tamper with weather.These storms have roared across the earth's oceans for millions of years.Who are we to stop them?
why do i have a funny feeling that we all ready had a blog about this? seems like one was done about this not long ago
Quoting 16. JeffMasters:


Yes, from a 2015 post of mine, Air Pollution and Dust Credited With Weakening Hurricanes Irene and Katrina:

snip...

Jeff Masters
Your memory is obviously much better than mine, Jeff, but my analytical skills seem to be fairly intact at age 74. ;-).

It sounds like a tropical storm or cyclone running into a wall of dust or aerosols can often be weakened - or at least prevented from strengthening - as the outer bands strike that "wall." OTOH, apparently "spraying" or "disbursing" them into the inner bands or the eye wall can cause intensification.

I agree that as with any geo-engineering project, extreme caution is necessary.
Probably explains why Ike never got much stronger while crossing the GOM towards TX, it just expanded in size.
As for the night and days after Camille struck in August 1969, my Father a WW-2 USMC Veteran,got over to the coast where my Grandparents live in Bay St. Louis. The Home there was spared save for losing 23 tall Pines, of which only one fell and clipped the Home.

All thru the the Storms landfall,He and I and my siblings looked to the East all night as we had lots of family there.

He and my brother who was 17 at the time got thru with relief the next day as He was a Vol Fireman.

36 years later Katrina would push a 8 foot surge thru the same Home, which is 3.5 miles inland from the Beach.



Quoting 20. Xulonn:

Your memory is obviously much better than mine, Jeff, but my analytical skills seem to be fairly intact at age 74. ;-).

It sounds like a tropical storm or cyclone running into a wall of dust or aerosols can often be weakened - or at least prevented from strengthening - as the outer bands strike that "wall." OTOH, apparently "spraying" or "disbursing" them into the inner bands or the eye wall can cause intensification.

I agree that as with any geo-engineering project, extreme caution is necessary.


If the general public such as businesses get wind of this, you might be seeing lawsuits against Uncle Sam. If it strengthens they sue, if it weakens they sue , stating it took a different path by weakening.
Quoting 17. VAbeachhurricanes:

Are we ever going to learn the new name?


Yes, we are actively debating this, and we should have a decision by the end of the month.

Jeff Masters
Camille was THE benchmark in Dixie for calamity by Nature.

Those of us who saw and lived Camille know how folks talked in Hush tones about it for decades.

We had a standing paragraph that said, "well Camille did not push water over the RR tracks in 69' so we are safe in Bay St. Louis."

Never were so many so wrong about something they felt so strong about.

Now the scars from Katrina overlap and dominate the past there.

It is the storm we now speak of in hushed tones, esp those of us who lost family to K.

I don't dwell on the numbers too much anymore.

It is the impact that matter's.











638. Tropicsweatherpr

Text of the CPC update of 4/11/16 that has Nino 3.4 down to 1.3C.
"A pressure of 909 mb was measured by Mr. Charles Breath at the onset of the eye in his home just west of the bridge in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, which was about 3 - 4 miles east of the landfall point.


Thanks Doc.
Strong subtropical jet..

Very surprised Hurricane Gilbert isn't in the list. How is it rated compared with the others?
Its very interesting to see new insights into storms of the past before we had good sensors and such like we do these days. I was not away that Margie was active on the blog til today!

As a weather enthusiast I can see that I have learned a ton of great info here both directly (bloggers/posters telling me the info) and indirectly, going out to find it as people mention it.

To me, Margie is a badge of honor for Wunderground. It shows this site as more than just a weather forecast site.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters.

Rainfall totals from my locale in Soo Cal Storm #1 Th/Fri 0.24 Storm #2 Sat/Sun 0.18 Storm #3 ??
Here's a news article from back in 2011.

Study: Strongest Gulf hurricanes ease near coast

"Overall, of the 12 most powerful hurricanes (Categories 3-5) in the Gulf between 1979 and 2008, including Katrina, 10 weakened during the 12 hours before making landfall, DeMaria reports."

I found this information interesting.
"the study found that although stronger hurricanes tend to weaken shortly before making landfall, weaker Gulf hurricanes tend to strengthen before landfall. Of the 17 weaker (Category 1-2) Gulf hurricanes researchers studied, 11 strengthened before making landfall.
DeMaria attributes that pattern to a combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the northern Gulf %u2014 such as sea-surface temperatures and upper-level winds %u2014 that cause most hurricanes to make landfall as strong Category 2s or weak Category 3s.
"This study confirms the perceptions that forecasters have had over the years," Rappaport says."
Link




Quoting 34. Sfloridacat5:

Here's a news article from back in 2011.

Study: Strongest Gulf hurricanes ease near coast

"Overall, of the 12 most powerful hurricanes (Categories 3-5) in the Gulf between 1979 and 2008, including Katrina, 10 weakened during the 12 hours before making landfall, DeMaria reports."

I found this information interesting.
"the study found that although stronger hurricanes tend to weaken shortly before making landfall, weaker Gulf hurricanes tend to strengthen before landfall. Of the 17 weaker (Category 1-2) Gulf hurricanes researchers studied, 11 strengthened before making landfall.
DeMaria attributes that pattern to a combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the northern Gulf %u2014 such as sea-surface temperatures and upper-level winds %u2014 that cause most hurricanes to make landfall as strong Category 2s or weak Category 3s.
"This study confirms the perceptions that forecasters have had over the years," Rappaport says."
Link







We have yet to see a 100mph cane strengthen into a 140mph cane slamming into TX in modern times. Correct me if I'm wrong.
   Thanks for the New Post Dr. Masters.....

Storm Totals for the 3 days of Rain(sic) was .24"
Quoting 30. JCheevorLoophole42:

Very surprised Hurricane Gilbert isn't in the list. How is it rated compared with the others?


I'm finding conflicting information on how strong Gilbert was at landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. This article states 185 mph winds but I don't know if it's confirmed.
Link
Very interesting info on Camille. My dad told me they had to stuff towels under the doors of the house to keep the intense rainfall from coming into the house in Monroe, LA. I was six. I read all I can on tropical cyclones since I've been through 20 hurricanes and typhoons from living in the Philippines, Japan, NC, Virginia, and Louisiana. Katrina ran us out of Gretna, LA. Really like the blog, read most everyday.
Still a small chance of a sprinkle or two. Not holding my breath.

Thanks Dr. Great information and kudos to Ms. Keiper; FIU is right next to NHC so nice to see Dr. Landsea and others participate with the students in this relatively new program there (as compared to the FSU school and UF). That re-analysis as to the timing of the ERC is fascinating.

After the warnings and cones have been issued, and a storm is on final approach inbound, most stay near the same intensity 6-12 hours out but a memorable few in the more modern era (like Katrina that weakened, Andrew that strengthened, and the current example with Camille) can go up or down a notch depending on very specific criteria (cooling shelf waters; gulf stream or warm eddy pass; increased or decreased shear, etc.).

Either way, if you have been ordered to evacuate from an approaching landfall from a significant hurricane, the best advice is to evacuate in advance of the storms' arrival rather than play the odds that it might weaken. Whether an ERC issue, or lightening in the core based on research related to Katrina before landfall, and even assuming that NHC issued last minute advisories about a strength change based on real time information, it would probably be too late to evacuate if your waited too long in the first place.

Better to be safe than sorry as opposed to not evacuating like those who lost their lives at that apartment complex by Pass Christian (the Richelieu Manor complex) when Camille hit.
We should see a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch very soon.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 84
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARTS OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
A SMALL PORTION OF FAR EAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
AND INTO LOUISIANA AND VICINITY...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
STEADILY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
Quoting 29. hydrus:

Strong subtropical jet..




Point jet to Sacramento region please
I really don't like when I see severe thunderstorm watches issued at basically the same time as tornado warnings. I know forecasting severe weather is very complicate, but it would be helpful if watches would be issued well in advance of severe weather.
I know the NWS does an excellent job, but it still bothers me.
Quoting 39. PedleyCA:

Still a small chance of a sprinkle or two. Not holding my breath.




Starting to feel like you Ped ...my rain today has been the sprinkle type ..and I could probably count how many we are getting
Tracking the growing list of 4/6 freeze damaged trees in College Park Md. Besides wisteria, it looks like the goldenrain tree in frt of my house had all new growth killed. Species seriously damaged


Wisteria
Mulberry.
Goldenrain tree
black locust


Many species e.g oaks and maples, look okay.

The freeze on 4/10 was not as bad as the one on 4/6 in my area.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 85
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE RIVER INTO NORTHERN -- AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN --
TEXAS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FORT WORTH TEXAS TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 84...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
Here are the current storm reports for the last three hours in the enhanced storm sector and the corresponding jet position: right on the money so far.

last3hours Reports Graphic



Victory in Landmark Climate Case Press release from Our Children's Trust.

Thanks to no1der for calling attention to the story.
Tropical Disturbance 8 is upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Fantala.



Link

More good news!
New solar panels can generate energy from sunlight and raindrops
Read more at link above, compliments of "Geek"
Quoting 54. weathermanwannabe:

Here are the current storm reports for the last three hours in the enhanced storm sector and the corresponding jet position: right on the money so far.

last3hours Reports Graphic






Pretty classic setup that the models have been showing for the past week. Hopefully we don't see any tornadoes hit any towns this evening. There's already some pictures of storm damage showing up on Twitter.

#37. Sfloridacat5 - thanks for the link to that article about 'Gilbert'. I had a memory that it was a particularly powerful storm, and that it strengthened after crossing Jamaica. Still not sure why it is not in the list; had its strength really dropped that much by the time it reached the Yucatan peninsula? Anyone know? There's a link to an old BBC 'Horizon' programme, broadcast in 1990 I think, that says something about it, but maybe we have better understanding now:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3pbcn1



College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 329 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 327 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 324 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 319 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 317 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 314 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 312 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 308 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016
Link
ARWX - scroll down to see some wind damage images.
It's starting to get serious for the northern suburbs of the Dallas/Fort Worth area.
That won't help warm up the MDR.
I wonder if any chasers have confirmation of a tornado on the ground?


TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 359 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER NEWPORT...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOWIE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BOWIE AROUND 425 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Lots of cells intensifying a bit this afternoon with daytime heating as the complex pushes east into MS and AL as well:

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop



CWG bids farewell to "Godzilla El nino"
Link
That tornado warned cell looks like its going to ride that boundary right into the Dallas/Fort Worth metro.
Everyone stay safe along the lower section of the US closer to the Gulf; will see Yall sometime tomorrow and here is the updated WPC forecast for this afternoon/evening. I would keep an eye on the local news and an ear to a Noaa weather radio as the strong cells start moving into your neck of the woods this afternoon and evening.



Quoting 32. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks for the update Dr Masters.

Rainfall totals from my locale in Soo Cal Storm #1 Th/Fri 0.24 Storm #2 Sat/Sun 0.18 Storm #3 ??


First shower from storm #3 started at 1438 local time in Soo Cal.
That warned cell is getting into a populated area. Hopefully it's not putting down a tornado.
LOL! Accuweather just extended their long range forecast out to 90 days.
Quoting 68. Sfloridacat5:

That tornado warned cell looks like its going to ride that boundary right into the Dallas/Fort Worth metro.
Sounds nasty.We went to Virginia yesterday to the area that was hit by the ef-3 in February and we could still see the swirl like motions on the ground (if that makes sense) and the bark stripped from some of the trees with large parts of them missing.Tornados are no joke and aren't to be taken lightly.
Still raining!

We have hit the 50 day mark until Hurricane Season begins. I don't see why we won't be at a neutral by June.
The NWS has dropped the tornado warning (for the moment) on the cell just west of the Dallas/Fort Worth metro. That cell to the east of Dallas/Fort Worth is looking really strong with occasional hooks.

TWC was just showing tennis ball to baseball size hail pics. Huge hail with some of these cells.
AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO...AND A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE FOLLOWING BEHIND. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS. SURFACE CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OF 500-1000 J/KG...DIURNAL
HEATING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.90 INCHES WILL
CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...INLAND VALLEYS AND
DESERTS THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW CONVECTION
MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE SLOW-MOVING CELLS DEVELOP...IN
ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. GREATEST AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
Did a little more digging on the Bhubaneswar, India record. That 114.44 F number yesterday had a RH of 90%. They've closed the schools until April 20th. The body count in India the last week is at 128.


They're not the only heatwave going on -

Warm, Southerly Winds Gust at Hurricane Force Over Greenland in Staggering Early Season Heatwave — Temperatures Now Hitting up to 41 Degrees (F) Above Average at Summit

Link

The farming Greenland crowd needs to read up on "wet bulb temperatures". Because it seems to be killing farmers in India, at rather good clip.

edit ...oops ...sorry
Dr. Forbes just showed a perfect hook on the storm just west of Denton. I think the NWS might re-issue a tornado warning for that cell.
Quoting 80. justmehouston:



Yesterday the hail was tennis ball sized.


Yeah, about 10 minutes ago TWC showed hail that looked bigger than baseball sized.
Man, I so glad I'm not facing the next 10 days in Bhubaneswar, India
Quoting 82. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, about 10 minutes ago TWC showed hail that looked bigger than baseball sized.


Dont know why I replied with what you had just posted ...when I first read it my brain did not compute the size you mentioned in your post ...dont know whether my fingers or my brain is working faster?

Looks like I will have to wait until Wednesday to get some rain. Kind of wondered why we didnt see pureet on?
Tornado warning now on the cell to the east of Dallas/Fort Worth area.
Speaking of other heat waves Fairbanks, AK , the beat goes on.55.6 °F


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
510 PM CDT MON APR 11 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 510 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF SULPHUR SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
COMO AROUND 525 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3296 9531 3296 9566 3298 9567 3298 9572
3310 9571 3309 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 274DEG 37KT 3301 9563

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.50IN
Quoting 19. Tazmanian:

why do i have a funny feeling that we all ready had a blog about this? seems like one was done about this not long ago


There was a reanalysis done in 2014 and a subsequent blog iirc, it didn't go into as much detail as this one did. I didn't know it peaked at 175 over the Gulf, weakened, then restrengthened again.
Hmmmmmm

Weather Service Forecasts Will Stop SHOUTING at You Next Month


Link
Quoting 79. RobertWC:

Did a little more digging on the Bhubaneswar, India record. That 114.44 F number yesterday had a RH of 90%. .




At the same time? Wouldn't that mean certain death within minutes?
A word about the Summit County Citizens Voice, Bob Berwyn has been at it a very long time he's at Breckenridge. He's really very good.

Climate: Jet stream shifts may speed Greenland meltdown
Scientists are tracking yet another global warming feedback mechanism that will have dire consequences for coastal communities around the world. Melting sea ice and overall rapid warming in the Arctic are factors in the development of so-called blocking high pressure systems — air masses spinning clockwise that block cold, dry Canadian air from reaching Greenland.

Link
Maybe just a one and done storm. Got a 20 minute shower out of it. Perhaps another popup shower or 2 and it will be over. Rain totals of about 1/2" for the 3 storms......good for trees and brush. :)
Wow! Way to go, Margie! Great to know we'll soon have another dok on the blog....

Lol
Quoting 90. wartsttocs:



At the same time? Wouldn't that mean certain death within minutes?

Not necessarily, people just don't stand in the sun at 114.44 F. The reports I've read said the streets were empty. The take away is , all economic life grids to a halt. Capitalism fails above 114 F degrees.

You have a point though, India is testing this threshold yet again this year. Last year they lost over 2,000 people on the West coast. Pakistan lost 1,200 last year. And it's come earlier , much earlier this year to the East coast.

This year it's near Bangladesh , ain't nobody counting heat deaths in Bangladesh.

In fact everyone in South Central Asia is either lying about these numbers, or can't count them.
Storm#3 Shower#2 still ongoing after 10 minutes.

Quoting 70. HurricaneHunterJoe:



First shower from storm #3 started at 1438 local time in Soo Cal.
Just got a light sprinkle here.
Nothing showing close on radar, but it is sprinkling. I'll take it, reverse virga...lol


Pray for Houston!
Quoting 90. wartsttocs

I just didn't just fall off the turnip truck. I've watching South Asia for years. The great irony is, that India plans for new coal, and the first waves heat deaths are at their door.

You can't construct a new coal fired power plant when it's 114 F degrees.

The irony kills me.
Quoting 99. pureet1948:


Pray for Houston!


Even prayers won't work pureet1948. It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
Quoting 101. RobertWC:

You can't construct a new coal fired power plant when it's 114 F degrees.

The irony kills me.

Link
Quoting 97. PedleyCA:


Just got a light sprinkle here.



I feel your pain.mStorm #3 Shower #2 is over.
Quoting 102. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Even prayers won't work pureet1948. It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.



Well, from a practical point of view HurricaneHunterJoe, from a rainstorm standpoint, am I better off in Houston than I would be in Galveston and points south of Highway 59?


Our local VIPER model in NOLA shows 3.5-4 inch Rain totals thru Thursday here.

STORM #3 Shower #3 just started
Quoting 90. wartsttocs:



At the same time? Wouldn't that mean certain death within minutes?


We would work in Refineries near steam release points and cooling towers in August heat using really high Temp mortar for brick work.(Acid Pads as well) In some units we had air running in with air horns,in temps and humidities close to those values. A Man can work hard for only 15-20 minutes tops or risk Heat Stroke. I always favored the night shifts on turnarounds to avoid the day heat.

Hurricane Camille Image from 16 August at 2340Z

Quoting 110. pureet1948:



Hardly that, HurricaneHunterJoe. But I do have reservations about street flooding, gusty winds, dangerous frequent lightning. Do you know if anything like that is expected on Wednesday?


Here's your forecast for Wednesday from the NWS. A chance of thunderstorms and some may product heavy rainfall (which is what can be said for just about any thunderstorm that forms).

.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
The Russians have found a bacteria that is 60,000 years old. In melting permafrost
Showers in mountains of San Diego County

Quoting 113. RobertWC:

The Russians have found a bacteria that is 60,000 years old. In melting permafrost


Grothar had that bug that year,as it was a nasty one I recall.

Kleenex were not yet round too.



: )
RE hurricane season forecasts in the spring: It is better for me to be silent and thought a fool than to make a hurricane season forecast and remove all doubt.
I like this colorized image of Camille from the Nimbus 3 satellite launched April 14, 1969. I wish I could find a bigger one.

Quoting 118. BaltimoreBrian:

RE hurricane season forecasts in the spring: It is better for me to be silent and thought a fool than to make a hurricane season forecast and remove all doubt.
I have done that the last two 3 seasons BB which is why I didn't participate in the hurricane prediction poll.If things line up perfectly someone will have to watch out....
Quoting 100. RobertWC:

Quoting 90. wartsttocs

I just didn't just fall off the turnip truck. I've watching South Asia for years. The great irony is, that India plans for new coal, and the first waves heat deaths are at their door.

You can't construct a new coal fired power plant when it's 114 F degrees.

The irony kills me.


Reminds me:

My grandma accidentally left the oven on once while cooking and left the oven shut with the burnt meal inside because she didn't want to get smoke in the house.

She's been on the two pack a day diet since Brooklyn had a baseball team.
Greetings and Blessings to All!

Many thanks for such an interesting and enlightening post Doc. Its great to see such insightful and more accurate data come to light eventually about a Tropical cyclone -even after such a long time since Actual landfall.

Knowledge is Power! May God continue to Richly Bless this Blog & Dr. Masters & Bob...
Quoting 108. HurricaneHunterJoe:

STORM #3 Shower #3 just started
#3 just ended = 33 minutes
Tyler Stanfield has a well-reasoned hurricane season forecast in his blog.
Southern storms sliding
southeastward slurping sultry
saturated skies



Went to the store to get some water and Tea and on the way back I saw where the rain I got the edge of went. There was
big storm south of me, very dark and nice rain shield under it and as this shows it must have been a good one. I heard on the News that Northridge got an inch in an hour and there was some flooding...

Quoting 128. PedleyCA:

Went to the store to get some water and Tea and on the way back I saw where the rain I got the edge of went. There was
big storm south of me, very dark and nice rain shield under it and as this shows it must have been a good one. I heard on the News that Northridge got an inch in an hour and there was some flooding...



This was a surprise to me, we had a sunny day in Oxnard, no rain here...
Lol hopefully not a bust :)

Quoting 75. Climate175:

We have hit the 50 day mark until Hurricane Season begins. I don't see why we won't be at a neutral by June.

Yay!!

Yes I can see why we may not be at neutral by June and it's because we may be into weak La Niña by then possibly
The BOM ENSO update comes out in a few hrs

Quoting 130. oxnardprof:


This was a surprise to me, we had a sunny day in Oxnard, no rain here...
Was a surprise here too, wasn't much to work with this A.M.
Is the Equatorial depth-longitude Temperature Anomaly Map posted in the below link a technical example of a Thermocline Map? I understand that a Thermocline map demonstrates the temperature gradient in a body of water, but would an anomaly map also be included within the definition?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo nitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml



Fantasy or reality? (Current SPC Day 1 outlook for Tuesday)
SPC is pretty good. Sometimes they are a little off on the exact area of severe weather, but mostly spot on. (Except for southern Florida!)


Quoting 136. pureet1948:




Fantasy or reality? (Current SPC Day 1 outlook for Tuesday)
Quoting 137. swflurker:

SPC is pretty good. Sometimes they are a little off on the exact area of severe weather, but mostly spot on. (Except for southern Florida!)





The problem with SPC is that their forecasts are geared specifically toward national threats. In my experience local NWS offices tend to do better for their respective jurisdictions. Not to mention it's easier to fill a local timeslot than a national one.
Nice to see Margie's name mentioned in the blog. I think about her sometimes. Glad to see she's doing well, maybe we can meet one day.
Quoting 140. KoritheMan:

Nice to see Margie's name mentioned in the blog. I think about her sometimes. Glad to see she's doing well, maybe we can meet one day.


Stalk much?

On a serious note, glad she is getting recognition and glad that Dr. Masters was able to guide her career in a positive way.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts 50% chance of La Nina formation by the end of 2016.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Quoting 113. RobertWC:

The Russians have found a bacteria that is 60,000 years old. In melting permafrost

Does anybody but me might see why defrosting this thing might not be such a good idea?
Quoting 141. Dakster:



Stalk much?

On a serious note, glad she is getting recognition and glad that Dr. Masters was able to guide her career in a positive way.


Who says people can't become straight? ;)
Also, me remembering Margie makes me realize just how long I've been on the blogs, and how young I was back then. I registered when I was 15. I'm 25 now.
Quoting 144. KoritheMan:



Who says people can't become straight? ;)


;)

and time sure flies... regarding your last comment.
Quoting 146. Dakster:



;)

and time sure flies... regarding your last comment.


I turned 25 yesterday. I'm actually starting to get really depressed. >_>

I have no problem getting old provided my youthful vitality remains for as long as possible. There's this awesome anime character in JoJo's Bizarre Adventure that's battling a vampiric demon from the past when he's 68. He still retained his bulk from his younger years, and was able to go toe to toe with most foes. That's the kind of person I want to be. :P
Quoting 147. KoritheMan:

I turned 25 yesterday. I'm actually starting to get really depressed. >_>

Happy birthday nevertheless, Kori! BTW I shed my first age related tears when I turned 20 a looong time ago because I wasn't a teenager any longer. When I turned 30 I had to call for the emergency doctor in the middle of the night due to a first and very serious attack of asthma (well, we were all heavy smokers back then, but not so any more). Afterwards I got used to getting older ;-)

Back to weather with a video of the bad hail yesterday in Texas:



Asia:
Heatwave shuts 259 Malaysian schools
10 hours ago
KUALA LUMPUR - More than 250 Malaysian schools were closed yesterday due to a heatwave brought on by the El Nino weather phenomenon which is severely affecting food production and causing chronic water shortage in many countries. ...

India: Heatwave Forces SCCL to Alter Shift Timings
By Express News Service, Published: 12th April 2016 05:03 AM
KARIMNAGAR: The month of May is when Summer is at its peak and the coal belt area of Karimnagar, Adilabad, Warangal and Khammam feels the rigours of the heatwave. In this scenario, the management of Singareni Collieries Company Limited (SCCL) has planned to offer some respite to its employees. They are going to prepone the shift timings of the employees by an hour, starting at 6 am and extend the half-an-hour break to an hour to offer ample rest to the employees. ....

Newborns struggle to survive heatwave in HK region
The Hindu, Updated: April 12, 2016 05:44 IST
The heatwave sweeping across Hyderabad-Karnataka in the last fortnight has hit newborns the hardest. ...

Mixed weather in Germany with a little rain and some thunderstorms. - Have a good morning, everyone!
BOM (AU) has shifted ENSO advisory to La Niña Watch
150. vis0

NASA’s Kepler spacecraft recovers from emergency mode, but what triggered it ?
( Kansas City Star | The Space Reporter  | CNN)...no not allergies...though is an unknown operator at master control sneezed while on the thruster controls ...hmmm  

Zikka virus scarier than originally thought .
(CNN | USA TODAY | Charlotte Observer)

 

Impossible Project [humor]debuts weather that even washi115 is happy 'bout [|humor] debuts its take on the Polaroid camera [vis0 adds] w/o the side affects of being blinded (blue-flashcubes) for 3 hours.[|vis0 adds]



And finally a tap on my back...

...caaaaaaah-------ant    ree------------shhhhhh    maahhhhh-----------i    bahhhhhh-----------ACK!  (vis0 out of breath)  -      

 

In a kind of related thought as to solar panels using raindrops (be it only 7% FOR NOW) thought...

Does anyone remember me posting at least 3 times as to how rain can me measured as if it where being picked up by radar within mountainous sites where today's radar "beams" cannot "see"?
 

 no???!???

i stated how one could use single cell inventions with lasers pointed at  ions to sub atom interactions (ions reacting are i that range too) in structures that would be like mini silo like structures* built on the mountain sides. By mini silos i mean strong tube like structures diameter of 7 feet protected by live camera and  a surrounding mini fence as mini-silos are to protect the instruments from wild animals aka drunk humans who think its an outhouse  and or wild bears.

The lasers are used to pick up the drops falling in-between the mini silo stations thus not be as accurate as the wafers that actually have the drops fall on them but the laser pickup are fine tuned by wafers/lasers reading the saltiness (other contents/weight/angles of drops) and size of the drops hitting the wafer/ion interactions.  The mini silo structure i only posted in ~2012 on WxU from one of my livejournal blogs, as an upgrade a few months before on that site caused the loss of just a hand full of my theories and science ideas, so i posted a couple of those ideas on my now (since start of 2015) deleted WxU blog.

This "how to pick up hidden rainfall" comment was in reply as how to pick up rain fall in between or amongst mountain ranges as i'd read how citizens of Washington State felt cheated in that strong LOWs do not receive the attention of weaker LOWs out east. i stated its very simple as to why they get less attention and posted a super wind + rain maker over Washington/Oregon via satellite imagery and radar capture versus a satellite image and radar or a low to moderate LOW over the N Carolina. The radar over Washington/western USofA mountain cannot fill in so the classic look of a strong LOW looks like a group of connect the dot marks, while the medium strength LOW anywhere else has the full classic LOW look so it gets more attention.  Imagine the TODAY show opening with a record breaking storm - LOW over the NW  and in the news tease all you see are 8 blips, people will change the channel and watch Bob Ross paint with soothing sounds. (being zilly with respect to Mr Ross & family)

 

 Now don't tell me no one remembers me also posting how humans can  produce a~10% to 15% of the needed current for their energy grids by using ions interactions in river flows (even used a zilly graphic as to NYc's East River) with very little affect on the living creatures in he river.  Here a though, in ocean's river flows these ion interactions MIGHT help in  assisting coral becoming healthy, the latter is more a physics thang so i might be wrong but certain changes in moving ions as to salt water might help coral "cool/ & clean" itself from over warming affects.

 

Again, sure solar energy is great (and best we keep making it better as it will be one of the final 5 sources of clean energy yet not the best of the 5 but till some nut figure out the arm of science i named Galacsics solar is the best cleanest energy humans have**) but the most effecient manner and cleanest in using the Suns energy is to tap into the currents that are created due to the Sun and planet interactions as in motions put in place due to the Planet trying to balance the light/heat generated by the closest star. This is mainly in the current of winds (60%), next water(20%), next solar(15%...mainly due to day/night limits BUT see the next usage clue), next ions(15%...will even tap into solar panels UNDER SIDE getting energy from sun light going through Earth onto the dark side of the planet) and finally a complex form of sub atomic energy (not the atomic energy of yer fathers' time)...so far only water & star light is being tapped(5%, mainly for areas of the plane where none of the others is feasible).

 

Where is where i agree with justmehouston (aGw believer/up-holder of scientific findings/realist and those that are tru skeptics, those that question everything for the sake of making sure no one is trying to "pulls the wool over our eyes" therefore not driven by greed or any human/social power structure. Yet once irrefutable proof is shown for the 15th time (: -P) these skeptics understand the findings of science and go into helping mode not hinder mode) Oil will still have to be used as to the needs of some of the structures used in taping into the 5 aforementioned future sources of energy, BUT the amount of oil needed would be ~ 5-6% of the total use of oil today. That means less CO2 or any other pollutant plus humans would not need worry of running out of oil to created the needed parts to run those future energy grid energy provides, BUT spend all the oil reserves incl) by 2200AD and guess what now humans will be missing some materials to make those future energy devices and we'll have to find oil on some other planet and hope that space ship Valdez (actually...ya guessed it a drunk human steering some vehicle) doesn't crash into the moon, forever destroying near Earths life support structure. [vis0 made up rumour] Is it true spaceX will be responsible for placing mini jets on the moon to secure that the moon does not move away too far plus emergency rickets to move the Moon away in a method of saving humanity by building life support station on the Moon for when humans have to evacuate Earth,  Matt Damon stars in THE MARTIAN TOO (Elysium asylum on the moon) [movie preview announcer]...where soylent green,        is just a soap...where the Moon is moved near Mars and vwalla the Koch bros have another planet with life to destroy[|vis0 made up rumor], see what i did there?

(crossing my fingers that the 15 formatting styles used in this comment holds up once i POST IT)
151. vis0
local times (WEIRD TODAY  ARTICLE MAINLY ON Camille, AND WARNING IS FLOODING IN MISSISSIPPI)


Warning for Mississippi.
Expires at 500 AM CDT.
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1217 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

COVINGTON MS-JONES MS-JASPER MS-SMITH MS-
1217 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR NORTHERN COVINGTON...NORTHERN JONES...JASPER AND SMITH
COUNTIES...

AT 1216 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LAUREL...STRINGER...BAY SPRINGS...RALEIGH...TAYLORSVILLE...MOUNT OLIVE...
SANDERSVILLE...HEIDELBERG...BURNS...WHITE OAK...TUCKERS CROSSING...
TURNERVILLE...PAULDING...STAFFORD SPRINGS...MILL CREEK...MOSS...SOSO...
MIZE...LOUIN AND SYLVARENA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 8894 3165 8974 3178 8974 3178 8965
3201 8965 3205 8966 3205 8972 3216 8972
3206 8892

$$

EEC

Quoting 143. lat25five:


Does anybody but me might see why defrosting this thing might not be such a good idea?


There are around 40 million bacteria in every gram of soil. I don't think that this one (whatever it is) is anything to worry about.
153. vis0
Quoting 113. RobertWC:

curiosity, humanties foe and friend dependant on foolish or wise ways.

 

 

CREDIT:: (not hyper linked as i did not visit site therefore not know of its contents, image i edited for this use) http://www.dreamstime.com/illustration/spraying.ht ml
Quoting 143. lat25five:


Does anybody but me might see why defrosting this thing might not be such a good idea?
(voted top vis0 comment by WxU members, since vis0 typed no words just added the image appended to RobertWC org comment)
Good Morning. Today looks like more of a rain event day than the severe t-storms that developed yesterday:


Yesterday:
today Filtered Reports Graphic


However, the frontal line with the embedded lows spans all the way from the Gulf to the NE along the Eastern Seaboard; pretty remarkable to see how long the front is:







Look at the size of these texas hailstones,gee I bet some cars got big damage huh..
If you were driving North on I-95 this morning from Florida to Maine, you would have rain all the way up:
Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

Quoting 157. LargoFl:

Look at the size of these texas hailstones,gee I bet some cars got big damage huh..


WOW, God got pretty fancy with that middle one!
160. JRRP7
Quoting 154. Gearsts:



Quoting 138. Dakster:



I see they finally got rid of the last TRS-80...


You joke, but one of the reasons why things seem to take forever to fix/upgrade, etc. in long running organizations is that there aren't a whole lot of long term thinkers involved when it comes time to make decisions and implement them. Especially in "researchy" type organizations where such thoughts about long term maintainability are a distant second to getting that cool new research they just did into something.

For example, it is pretty much a universal truth that weather model code (and most scientific code in general) is terrible. Not because it's inaccurate or doesn't work, but because it was written by scientists who's main concern was just getting it to run. And by "getting it to run", I mean hacking the existing code base to add their new piece of code instead of actually thinking about the best way to implement it. And documentation? Who needs that?

This type of "organic" software rapidly becomes an unmanageable mess that makes even minor tweaks take considerably more effort than they should. Instead of sitting down and saying "Hey, maybe we should go over this...", they hack piece upon piece and build an entire brittle software ecosystem around it.

Worse, it's not just the models. It's the whole system. Hundreds or thousands of lines of bash scripts, "OMG! DON'T MOVE THAT FILE!" instructions, and veritable minefield of duct tape and bubblegum that seems to always be one "new guy" command away from bringing the whole system crashing down.

In fact, I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that the original software producing those messages is still printing all caps (as it has for decades), and instead someone hacked a perl or python script that just converts it to normal text. :P
Quoting 160. JRRP7:





Hey where the hell did you get that because I'm on the IRI site and it hasn't updated yet
Here is the ENSO forecast issued this morning by the Aussies:


El Niño declining; 50 per cent likelihood of La Niña for later in 2016

While the 2015–16 El Niño remains at weak to moderate levels, recent changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, combined with current climate model outlooks, suggest the likelihood of La Niña forming in 2016 has increased to around 50%. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has moved to La Niña WATCH.

Temperatures below the Pacific Ocean surface have declined since late 2015, with all but the top 50 metres now cooler than normal. At the sea surface, temperatures have cooled by over 1 °C since their peak, but remain warmer than average and still at El Niño levels. The Southern Oscillation Index and trade winds also show clear signs that El Niño is in decline. The SOI has recently risen to near-neutral levels, while trade winds are near normal. However some indicators, such as cloudiness near the Date Line, have shown only a limited shift away from El Niño patterns.

International climate models suggest El Niño will continue to weaken during the southern autumn, returning to neutral levels by mid-2016. By spring, five of the eight surveyed models suggest La Niña is likely, with three remaining neutral. ENSO forecasts made at this time of year tend to have lower accuracy than at other times, with a clearer picture to emerge over the coming months.

La Niña is often, but not always, associated with above-average winter-spring rainfall over northern, central and eastern Australia.

Australia's climate is also being influenced by record warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean. The warmth in the Indian Ocean will likely provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the southern autumn.

We have to do a better job of explaining what a storm surge is. I read somewhere that during a hurricane the wind keeps pushing water out to sea and then it all comes back in a rush when the wind can't hold it back any longer.

I don't even if this is true but it sounds feasible.
Quoting 90. wartsttocs:



At the same time? Wouldn't that mean certain death within minutes?


Most likely that's an error since it would imply a dewpoint of 110F, enough to slowly and agonizingly burn skin.
Quoting 158. weathermanwannabe:

If you were driving North on I-95 this morning from Florida to Maine, you would have rain all the way up:
Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop




Only last a few hours though then it will be clear all the way up
Building up now,,,,
Kudos to Margie! Nice to hear about her success.

Happy b-day Korinthe - if you think it is bad now, just give it another 20 years. One day you wake up, look in the mirror and wonder "who is that old guy?" staring back at you . . .

And a big hello to everyone else. Nice to see many a familiar name still contributing . . . .

Still, rooting for "Jeff and (not-so) Silent Bob's: Tropical Weather and Climate Blog!" - as far as the name-change is concerned. Back to lurking . . . .

Cheers to all.


Quoting 161. Xyrus2000:



You joke, but one of the reasons why things seem to take forever to fix/upgrade, etc. in long running organizations is that there aren't a whole lot of long term thinkers involved when it comes time to make decisions and implement them. Especially in "researchy" type organizations where such thoughts about long term maintainability are a distant second to getting that cool new research they just did into something.

For example, it is pretty much a universal truth that weather model code (and most scientific code in general) is terrible. Not because it's inaccurate or doesn't work, but because it was written by scientists who's main concern was just getting it to run. And by "getting it to run", I mean hacking the existing code base to add their new piece of code instead of actually thinking about the best way to implement it. And documentation? Who needs that?

This type of "organic" software rapidly becomes an unmanageable mess that makes even minor tweaks take considerably more effort than they should. Instead of sitting down and saying "Hey, maybe we should go over this...", they hack piece upon piece and build an entire brittle software ecosystem around it.

Worse, it's not just the models. It's the whole system. Hundreds or thousands of lines of bash scripts, "OMG! DON'T MOVE THAT FILE!" instructions, and veritable minefield of duct tape and bubblegum that seems to always be one "new guy" command away from bringing the whole system crashing down.

In fact, I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that the original software producing those messages is still printing all caps (as it has for decades), and instead someone hacked a perl or python script that just converts it to normal text. :P
News Flash: it's not just research-based organizations that do this. I've been employed as a developer by several large and internationally-known software companies with products selling in the high-six/low-seven figure range, products with flashy front ends that were nonetheless backed up by millions of lines of undocumented--and undocumentable--spaghetti code, and tons of what you've politely called a "minefield of duct tape and bubblegum", all of it a result of bad management, constantly shifting technology, scope creep, lazy/sloppy coding, and just plain idiocy ("Hey, I'm gonna give all the application variables names of minor Star Wars and Star Trek characters! That'll be cool!").

Egad.

At least I've reached the point in my career that I can now happily refuse working on any such legacy software, concentrating instead on writing lousy software that some other future schmuck will have to decipher. ;)
Quoting 159. Qazulight:



WOW, God got pretty fancy with that middle one!
LOL on that!!...man I cant imagine..being caught walking outside and getting caught in That hail storm..ouch,..maybe even hospital time.
As I wait for a thunderstorm approaching Mainz, here some good science news on renewables :-)
One step closer to pee power
DW English, Date 12.04.2016
What if we could tap a daily waste product for energy? Making power out of pee is nearing practical application - it's a effective and hygienic option for sustainably managing waste. ...


Source. Current thunderstorms moving from in northeastern direction along the eastern flank of Atlantic "Yin-Yang"-low Ortrun.
Quoting 164. rancocas:

We have to do a better job of explaining what a storm surge is. I read somewhere that during a hurricane the wind keeps pushing water out to sea and then it all comes back in a rush when the wind can't hold it back any longer.

I don't even if this is true but it sounds feasible.


It would all depend on the setup. But yes if you were on the left side of the storm with 150 mph winds blowing offshore it would push the tide/water out to sea. Then as the storm moves inland and the offshore winds back off I could see a surge moving back in rather quickly.

The surge will still be the highest in the right front quadrant of the storm where you'll experience the strongest onshore flow and the highest wind speeds.
here the movie on Camille

Link

Quoting 143. lat25five:


Does anybody but me might see why defrosting this thing might not be such a good idea?
Oh ye of little faith! What could possibly go wrong? We have technology and robots now, and if it turns into a zombie creating ultra hyper contagion we'll be EXTRA careful with it!

Quoting 172. barbamz:

As I wait for a thunderstorm approaching Mainz, here some good science news on renewables :-)
One step closer to pee power
DW English, Date 12.04.2016
What if we could tap a daily waste product for energy? Making power out of pee is nearing practical application - it's a effective and hygienic option for sustainably managing waste. ...


Current thunderstorms moving from in northeastern direction along the eastern flank of Atlantic "Yin-Yang"-low Ortrun.

Almost thought it s 1st April for a while...Pee Power, lol.

Had me fooled, I thought he was an expert on Climate Change.

Luv April weather. Golf 5 days a week.
Quoting 171. LargoFl:

LOL on that!!...man I cant imagine..being caught walking outside and getting caught in That hail storm..ouch,..maybe even hospital time.


The sound of baseball sized hail stones exploding as they hit the street is amazing. It makes a WACK! sound like someone hitting a home run in baseball. It's loud.
I experienced a couple storms like that when I lived in central Oklahoma. Hail was so large it was breaking the branches off the trees. Every windw on the north and west side of the house was busted out. The hail also did a lot of damage to the roof.
There has been  about 10 tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal in the first half of April, the Bay of Bengal is warming up pretty fast (along with the whole Indian ocean) which makes me curious whether we will see cyclones around there forming sooner than they usually do. SSTs over most of the Bay of Bengal are over 29 C and are running way above average. MJO should be over the Bay of Bengal around the end of April, when some of the worst systems on record formed there.

Quoting 178. Sfloridacat5:



The sound of baseball sized hail stones exploding as they hit the street is amazing. It makes a WACK! sound like someone hitting a home run in baseball. It's loud.
I experienced a couple storms like that when I lived in central Oklahoma. Hail was so large it was breaking the branches off the trees. Every windw on the north and west side of the house was busted out. The hail also did a lot of damage to the roof.



Hailed one night here in NOLA when I was like 6-7 yrs old. We had a slate shingle roof and I awoke to the sound of what I thought was Bombing.(My Mother thought the Russians were bombing us too)

One hailstone that was about the size of a Baseball, bounced off the tree outside my Sisters bedroom, broke thru Her window, went thru Her open door and Hit the Gas Heater closet vented door and broke 2 slats. Never have I heard such noise from a T-storm since.

Quoting 157. LargoFl:

Look at the size of these texas hailstones,gee I bet some cars got big damage huh..


Hail for the Hail God!

The Storm God's RAEG continues...with a Class 2 (Slight Risk) in Texas today.
Quoting 175. JNFlori30A:

Oh ye of little faith! What could possibly go wrong? We have technology and robots now, and if it turns into a zombie creating ultra hyper contagion we'll be EXTRA careful with it!
That, plus the fact that it's gonna defrost like it or not -- thanks to human propensities to consume (burn) the world's petroleum and coal reserves as fast as possible. Extra careful! Hah!
Quoting 160. JRRP7:






Oh boy!!! Seeing the anomalies you can see that this is escalating quickly.
Thought this was interesting...it's from NWS Louisville about Frost.

Unusual Car Top Frost This Morning
Quoting 164. rancocas:

We have to do a better job of explaining what a storm surge is. I read somewhere that during a hurricane the wind keeps pushing water out to sea and then it all comes back in a rush when the wind can't hold it back any longer.

I don't even if this is true but it sounds feasible.

no its the flow of the winds within a storm
onshore winds pile water up along coast
offshore winds pushes the water out from the coast
Storm Surge can happen well inland as Katrina flooded Lake Pontchartrain's N Shore communities after the center passed and the Lake sloshed back to the N with the storms SW Winds driving it well inland there.

Local Topography and Bathymetry matters greatly. Esp in SE Louisiana.






How is the CMC Precip rate out to 72 hours but the CMC Total Accumulated Precip is out to 210 hours at 12:08PM CDT? I don't get it.
New Study Proves That People Who Don’t Believe In Climate Change Are Morons



“This study confirms what everyone already knew,” said Paul Mosely, author of the study and a research scientist at Harvard University.

A new scientific study held by researchers at Harvard University and Yale University has definitively proven that people that don’t believe that climate change is real are of extremely low intelligence.

“This study confirms what everyone already knew,” said Paul Mosely, author of the study and a research scientist at Harvard University. “At this point, if someone doesn’t believe that climate change has been proven to be a legitimate concern by scientific community, then that person is most likely an idiot.”

The study of 10,232 Americans found that people who were climate change deniers had an average IQ score of 85.

“Research proves that time and time again, if someone doubts that climate change is real and caused by human activity, that person is within the 80-90 range of IQ known as ‘dull.’ I don’t want to stupid shame, that’s not what we do here. But, well, people who don’t think climate change is real are stupid and they should be ashamed of themselves.”

The study was published last week in the journal Scientific American.

Data from the study came from the National Intelligence Survey of Youth 2010 (NISY10), a national survey of people who were between 18-32 years old when they were first interviewed in 2010.

In 2012, all participants were asked, “Do you believe that climate change is real and caused by human activity?”

Some conservative critics have suggested that this was a ‘loaded gotcha question’ and that the correlation is merely a coincidence.

Mosely said that despite the expected backlash, the major finding was almost certainly still true: people who don’t respect the overwhelming conclusion of the scientific community that climate change is real are most likely morons.
Quoting 169. Neapolitan:

News Flash: it's not just research-based organizations that do this. I've been employed as a developer by several large and internationally-known software companies with products selling in the high-six/low-seven figure range, products with flashy front ends that were nonetheless backed up by millions of lines of undocumented--and undocumentable--spaghetti code, and tons of what you've politely called a "minefield of duct tape and bubblegum", all of it a result of bad management, constantly shifting technology, scope creep, lazy/sloppy coding, and just plain idiocy ("Hey, I'm gonna give all the application variables names of minor Star Wars and Star Trek characters! That'll be cool!").

Egad.

At least I've reached the point in my career that I can now happily refuse working on any such legacy software, concentrating instead on writing lousy software that some other future schmuck will have to decipher. ;)


Oh yes, that's why I mentioned long-lived organizations. There's quite a bit of one-off-ery when it comes to software. However, I've found old Fortran model code to be particularly bad. No memory for comments. All variables a single or at most double letters to save on space. Quintuply or more nested loops littered with goto's. I've seen assembler code less obtuse. :P

At any rate, that's why what appears to be almost trivial activities can mean a lot of man hours of work. The change itself might be only a couple lines of code that takes a few minutes to pound out. But finding where to put that code requires a software archaeological expedition so filled with logical traps and misdirections that it makes an Indiana Jones adventure look like look like a run down to the 7-11 for a soda. :P
Quoting 88. win1gamegiantsplease:



There was a reanalysis done in 2014 and a subsequent blog iirc, it didn't go into as much detail as this one did. I didn't know it peaked at 175 over the Gulf, weakened, then restrengthened again.

I seem to recall (maybe in error) that the contention of the blog from 2014 (has it been that long?) was that Camille may have been quite a bit weaker than commonly believed when it crossed the coastline. This, based on wind damage observations from the areas near landfall. Camille was a tremendously devastating hurricane regardless, tragically taking many human lives.

Personally, I am in the "camp" who believes it was likely under category 5 strength at landfall, but it does not really matter at this point.

As a side note, I feel the most "outstanding" (in a very bad way) example of truly catastrophic wind damage from a tropical cyclone in US history is that of Hurricane Andrew.
Quoting 183. CaneFreeCR:

That, plus the fact that it's gonna defrost like it or not -- thanks to human propensities to consume (burn) the world's petroleum and coal reserves as fast as possible. Extra careful! Hah!


Of course, then again, it could be a something that we need to balance the excess greenhouse gasses we have? Would make sense...something locked up in permafrost until it is needed?
Quoting 178. Sfloridacat5:



The sound of baseball sized hail stones exploding as they hit the street is amazing. It makes a WACK! sound like someone hitting a home run in baseball. It's loud.
I experienced a couple storms like that when I lived in central Oklahoma. Hail was so large it was breaking the branches off the trees. Every windw on the north and west side of the house was busted out. The hail also did a lot of damage to the roof.

gee I hope that kind of hail storm never happens here
Quoting 196. LargoFl:

gee I hope that kind of hail storm never happens here
Quoting 196. LargoFl:

gee I hope that kind of hail storm never happens here

In 20 years it has only hailed one time about pea size here at my house on the south side of Fort Myers. Those supercells in Oklahoma almost always have bigger hail. We also had 114 mph straight winds recorded at the airport near where we lived. I watched a bicycle go flying down the street with no one riding it. Also found 8 ft. sections of our fence about an 1/8 mile from the house. This was on the SW side of Oklahoma City. Those storms were green monsters.
Quoting 194. DFWdad:



Of course, then again, it could be a something that we need to balance the excess greenhouse gasses we have? Would make sense...something locked up in permafrost until it is needed?
That's actually probably what it is -- it will balance the greenhouse gases by taking out the emitters wholesale, thus reducing emissions. Could happen pretty quickly too. Nature has a way of finding a solution to problems.
Quoting 193. HurrMichaelOrl:


I seem to recall (maybe in error) that the contention of the blog from 2014 (has it been that long?) was that Camille may have been quite a bit weaker than commonly believed when it crossed the coastline. This, based on wind damage observations from the areas near landfall. Camille was a tremendously devastating hurricane regardless, tragically taking many human lives.

Personally, I am in the "camp" who believes it was likely under category 5 strength at landfall, but it does not really matter at this point.

As a side note, I feel the most "outstanding" (in a very bad way) example of truly catastrophic wind damage from a tropical cyclone in US history is that of Hurricane Andrew.

I feel the same way.

And yes, Andrew had some of the worst wind damage I've seen in pictures from any hurricane.
SpaceX Falcon 9 Barge Landing images, from on board cams...released.





Back in Port Canaveral.


March PDO is up to +2.40. It was at +1.75 on Febuary.

PDO Index
Quoting 191. Patrap:

New Study Proves That People Who Don't Believe In Climate Change Are Morons



. . . Mosely said that despite the expected backlash, the major finding was almost certainly still true: people who don't respect the overwhelming conclusion of the scientific community that climate change is real are most likely morons.



Calling people morons may be a little harsh. We always have new things to learn, as clearly evidenced by our history. However, there seems to be a persistent status-quo that really likes clinging to convenient beliefs and self-affirming falsehoods. Forgive them Mosely, for they know not what they do.
From the San Juan NWS discussion about potential big rain event by next week for the Eastern Caribbean .

FAIR WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UNTIL ANOTHER WET PATTERN
ESTABLISH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ASSOCIATED TO THE MERGING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE ISLANDS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST
Is this +AMO, neutral AMO, or -AMO? It definitely doesn't look negative to me...
Quoting 192. Xyrus2000:



Oh yes, that's why I mentioned long-lived organizations. There's quite a bit of one-off-ery when it comes to software. However, I've found old Fortran model code to be particularly bad. No memory for comments. All variables a single or at most double letters to save on space. Quintuply or more nested loops littered with goto's. I've seen assembler code less obtuse. :P

At any rate, that's why what appears to be almost trivial activities can mean a lot of man hours of work. The change itself might be only a couple lines of code that takes a few minutes to pound out. But finding where to put that code requires a software archaeological expedition so filled with logical traps and misdirections that it makes an Indiana Jones adventure look like look like a run down to the 7-11 for a soda. :P



In general the "program" statement, "stop" and "end" can be left as is and the rest replaced with a forklift :-)

Comments don't take memory (at least they shouldn't).


Object oriented design, properly implemented makes maintaining million line code bases tractable. Improperly implemented (which means the way it's always really done) it provides new methods of obfuscation not previously attainable with fortran 66 or 77. I've cynically observed that the compexity of an implementation is not determined by the actual problem solved but is instead determined by the maximum supportable by the development API. OOP supports much more complexity. And there's much of my work day trying to figure out what's wrong or slow.

In the days prior to OOP I used to observe that CODE_QUALITY * DEBUGGER_QUALITY=constant.
I've always tried to design and instrument so that printf is sufficient to find problems and knowing that's all I intend to use makes for more caution in initial design.

Quoting 204. Tropicsweatherpr:

From the San Juan NWS discussion about potential big rain event by next week for the Eastern Caribbean .

FAIR WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UNTIL ANOTHER WET PATTERN
ESTABLISH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS SEEMS TO BE
ASSOCIATED TO THE MERGING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE ISLANDS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST


How's the drought situation in PR?
Quoting 203. VibrantPlanet:




Calling people morons may be a little harsh. We always have new things to learn, as clearly evidenced by our history. However, there seems to be a persistent status-quo that really likes clinging to convenient beliefs and self-affirming falsehoods. Forgive them Mosely, for they know not what they do.


I forgive and accept the morons. I do not forgive the intelligent disinformers who know exactly what they are doing for their masters.
Quoting 191. Patrap:

New Study Proves That People Who Don%u2019t Believe In Climate Change Are Morons



This study confirms what everyone already knew, said Paul Mosely, author of the study and a research scientist at Harvard University.

A new scientific study held by researchers at Harvard University and Yale University has definitively proven that people that don't believe that climate change is real are of extremely low intelligence.

This study confirms what everyone already knew, said Paul Mosely, author of the study and a research scientist at Harvard University. At this point, if someone doesn't believe that climate change has been proven to be a legitimate concern by scientific community, then that person is most likely an idiot.

The study of 10,232 Americans found that people who were climate change deniers had an average IQ score of 85.

Research proves that time and time again, if someone doubts that climate change is real and caused by human activity, that person is within the 80-90 range of IQ known as dull. I don't want to stupid shame, that's not what we do here. But, well, people who don't think climate change is real are stupid and they should be ashamed of themselves.

The study was published last week in the journal Scientific American.

Data from the study came from the National Intelligence Survey of Youth 2010 (NISY10), a national survey of people who were between 18-32 years old when they were first interviewed in 2010.

In 2012, all participants were asked, Do you believe that climate change is real and caused by human activity?

Some conservative critics have suggested that this was a loaded gotcha question and that the correlation is merely a coincidence.

Mosely said that despite the expected backlash, the major finding was almost certainly still true: people who don't respect the overwhelming conclusion of the scientific community that climate change is real are most likely morons.


Taken in by a fake article. I see at least 7 others here fell for it too. What did they call this type of person in the article. LOL.

This publication is like the Onion
Quoting 191. Patrap:

New Study Proves That People Who Don’t Believe In Climate Change Are Morons



“This study confirms what everyone already knew,” said Paul Mosely, author of the study and a research scientist at Harvard University.

A new scientific study held by researchers at Harvard University and Yale University has definitively proven that people that don’t believe that climate change is real are of extremely low intelligence.

“This study confirms what everyone already knew,” said Paul Mosely, author of the study and a research scientist at Harvard University. “At this point, if someone doesn’t believe that climate change has been proven to be a legitimate concern by scientific community, then that person is most likely an idiot.”

The study of 10,232 Americans found that people who were climate change deniers had an average IQ score of 85.

“Research proves that time and time again, if someone doubts that climate change is real and caused by human activity, that person is within the 80-90 range of IQ known as ‘dull.’ I don’t want to stupid shame, that’s not what we do here. But, well, people who don’t think climate change is real are stupid and they should be ashamed of themselves.”

The study was published last week in the journal Scientific American.

Data from the study came from the National Intelligence Survey of Youth 2010 (NISY10), a national survey of people who were between 18-32 years old when they were first interviewed in 2010.

In 2012, all participants were asked, “Do you believe that climate change is real and caused by human activity?”

Some conservative critics have suggested that this was a ‘loaded gotcha question’ and that the correlation is merely a coincidence.

Mosely said that despite the expected backlash, the major finding was almost certainly still true: people who don’t respect the overwhelming conclusion of the scientific community that climate change is real are most likely morons.


What is your IQ for believing this is a real article?
Quoting 207. Greg01:



How's the drought situation in PR?


Compared to 2015,this year it has rained much more and the dry areas have been getting smaller with time.It looks like there will not be water rationing like last year as the lakes are mainly on good capacity.

Quoting 211. Tropicsweatherpr:



Compared to 2015,this year it has rained much more and the dry areas have been getting smaller with time.It looks like there will not be water rationing like last year as the lakes are mainly on good capacity.




I have a friend that lives in San Sebastian, she told me they've had decent rain so far. Glad to hear things are turning for the better.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach Apr 11 Walnut Creek, CA
The latest Climate Forecast System ensemble mean forecast calls for moderate #LaNina conditions by August-October.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
216. vis0

Quoting 152. yonzabam:



There are around 40 million bacteria in every gram of soil. I don't think that this one (whatever it is) is anything to worry about.
whew! thank goodness we have yonzabam, okay congress ya can do away with even more science related gov't offices close the CDC we have yonzabam on the jib to ah protect us. (do i have to add a sarcasm flag?, no we're not in Australia.  Not picking on the people of Australia, just look at how science is being dismantled in that lovely country so they can pass the buck and pay more later)
217. vis0
APOLOGIZING AFTER i read WxU mail did, not see cmmnt#218 proceeding this comment since i'm so used to being on ignore i rarely go back to seeing if anyone cares to read what i post so i did not know the trouble my misunderstood and/or incorrect grammar led to till after reading Wxmail and preparing my apology. Received the WxU mail from someone alerting me to what they thought i was saying Monday morning the 18th, checked it Sunday nite there was no new mail.

My words are that whomever wrote the article is causing more harm than good (why i only posted "quoting 191. Patrap" as i did not want to make it seem like they where Patraps words as when one Uses WxU's style of only quoting the last quote instead of the entire line of replies it does save space but makes it seem as the last person Quoted is making the statement of other their statement so i did not include the "moron" statement under PATRAPs quote so no one confused that those words DID NOT COME FROM PATRAP.

I AM VERY SORRY IF PEOPLE THOUGHT I MEANT PATRAP

 

TO ANYONE WHOM READ THE ORIGINAL COMMENT I DID NOT MEAN THAT PATRAP  USED ANY OF THOSE "NEGATIVE" WORDS.  PATRAP HAS BUILT A LIFE IN HELPING ALL PEOPLE.

PATRAPS WORK HELPS ALL PEOPLE  EVEN THOSE THAT DISAGREE WITH PATRAPS VIEWS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE PLANETS DAMAGED HEALTH.

IF A PERSON HELPS ALL EVEN THOSE THAT DISAGREE WITH THEM THAT IS THE UTMOST CARING ONE CAN GIVE, AND THAT IS WHAT PATRAP IS DOING.

 

I GREGORIO O. DE MOJECA APOLOGIZE FOR ANY MISUNDERSTANDING, I AM SPORRY AND ASK ONE PLACE ON ME ANY NEGATIVES THAT FELL ON PATRAP FOR MY MISUNDERSTOOD WORDs.
----------------------------MY  ORIGINAL COMMENT BELOW HERE-----------------
Quoting 191. Patrap:

Trumpitate, word created on April 12 2016, meaning:: To exaggerate the few differences amongst people to cause a great divide thus conquer for nothing more than ones own ego.


My reply is to the action of calling people names, lets not "trumpitate" the differences when there is so much in common. So much?


yeah saving the biggest thing we both need, a HEALTHY planet.

oh oh i'm going to post a rebuttal on a sensitive subject

Skeptics:: i call those that really question any findings and in time understand those findings, while $keptic$ are just greedy people looking for money or power.

 

This is to me not a good way to explain or categorize, on so many levels the people that are not in the side of upholding the findings due to good science and will add or make more unmovable the mind set/thoughts of skeptics, uneducated or undereducated.

Most here or in the scientific communities understand that $keptic$ (greed group) will be the hardest to change in how they prefer to think ...
 

(they are thinking, just only for their addiction to greed/power when one cannot meet those that want to take care of Earth, halfway)

 
...man cannot or should not do anything to lower the warming be that warming GW or aGW and most of the $keptic$ in that category will go down with the ship even if that ship is Earth.
 

Instead of any negative word / name calling as "moron", "idiot" (someone call me?) try showing some respect.
 

 As tiring as it may seem to repeat a million times what is causing the warming and attract the attention of 1 of every 10 people reading your words, by using such insulting words/terms you now strengthen the choir you are preaching to  (means you add zero) yet lose 1 or 2 of every 10 that read those insulting words.  Result is you lose 2 instead of gaining 1, and one never knows if one of those people is the local "town / news crier?" that can spread the word like a wildfire but if you've alienated that one person the word they'll spread is not good for humanity just for the $keptic$ ego lined pockets.

 

i understand that to be a truly GOOD scientist one has to separate ones ego from their work. At first as a young scientist one thinks their ideas will be proven, but as time goes on the GOOD scientist allows SCIENCE to teach them through the language that is spoken by science and all creatures that have independent intelligence, that is the language of math. Its frustrating to go 10, 20, 30 years as a scientist or people whom like to learn then teach in showing others what good science research has shown and allow the (at present ) laws of physics to show one the end results/findings of science.  Therefore the scientist though confident, its a confidence in the math they know (some studied hard, other came to them easily)  paves the road to correct findings and its those findings that should be endlessly repeated till ones last breath if you desire for others to learn.

 

i would not be surprised if this article heads towards the $keptic$ web pages and is successfully used as "fuel" against scientists that uphold scientific studies as to the validity in the findings that man's usage of greenhouse gases and how those gases build upand is the main cause of GW thus GW becomes aGW.

 

Did no one notice that this was how Australia got into the present mode of "lets cut science now and pay more later".  This after someone stating they were scientist or quasi-scientist wrote Aussie's are not that "~bright type" of comment. Since most like many throughout the world are not focused on the science discoveries unless its connected to something that entertains the masses as new TV, iPod etc, webnet the lack in the latest news on other types of science breakthroughs, that is reality.  Once that article made the rounds in the chambers of those in the Australian gov't that prefer greed over (k)gnowledge those gov't official jumped at the opportunity in showing that write up to the general public and the rest will live in infamy.

 

Please be respectful of those that know not what you know or think you know even if you are 99.9% sure, as in not respecting others you are not respecting:: (my shortlist)

 
  • me (i'm not that bright yet created a device that...ah skip it the rest several bright people think is the words of a delusional person or at best a nut.
  • uneducated
  • undereducated
  • poor
  • hard working parent or parents supporting 1 kid that seems lie 4 or 2, 3, 4...kids so the placed their education on the back burner.
  • Some that were bought up not to care as to the sciences YET has an open mind...till they read the linked article.
  • Religious people whom have a god heart and would be the first person to help you if you were in need, yet are weary of the sciences cause their Pasteur i mean Pastor told them to be so.
  • many uncles :-P
  • Farmers whom decide to be educated by nature (very wise as to working with nature, know more as to the land than some scientist) skipped school at a young age (teens) to save Dads/Moms farm and bring us toms of food so know not as to natures' other levels as the atmosphere.



...
  • yourself.(not at 1 person, meaning each reader)


Watch skeptic$ sites use R-E-S-P-E-C-T which i asked (~2008AD) be used by scientist in asking Aretha Franklin to use the tune while showing a healthy Earth becoming sick now the tune will be used to show that some think most  scientist don't care as to those that are not at their "level of thinking" whatever that means.

Do you know that of the aforementioned people intelligent people are less likely to vote if its drizzling (if raining fah get a-bout it) yet their are uneducated or undereducated worldwide that will dodge bullets to at least make it to the polling station.  Why alienate those that humanity needs on the side of upholding good science to then have them vote to shift congress/senate/local representatives over to the caring for all side?


Think before you tweet or speak or type.
 

SINCERELY,
idiot vis0,

whose 2nd fav NFL team are the SAINTS and fav area food (though only ate it twice) is the native to Louisiana foods of Cajun and Creole as how so much love is given/sacrificed into those food creations.

NOW FORGET ME, remember to respect and start observing the weather, be safe.


----------------------------MY  ORIGINAL COMMENT ABOVE HERE-----------------

APOLOGIZING AFTER i read WxU mail did, not see cmmnt#218
proceeding this comment since i'm so used to being on ignore i rarely go
back to seeing if anyone cares to read what i post so i did not know
the trouble my misunderstood and/or incorrect grammar led to till after
reading Wxmail and preparing my apology. Received the WxU mail from
someone alerting me to what they thought i was saying Monday morning the
18th, checked it Sunday nite there was no new mail.

My words are
that whomever wrote the article is causing more harm than good (why i
only posted "quoting 191. Patrap" as i did not want to make it seem like
they where Patraps words as when one Uses WxU's style of only quoting
the last quote instead of the entire line of replies it does save space
but makes it seem as the last person Quoted is making the statement of
other their statement so i did not include the "moron" statement under
PATRAPs quote so no one confused that those words DID NOT COME FROM PATRAP.

I AM VERY SORRY IF PEOPLE THOUGHT I MEANT PATRAP

 

TO ANYONE WHOM READ THAT COMMENT I DID NOT MEAN THAT PATRAP  USED ANY OF THOSE "NEGATIVE" WORDS. 

PATRAP HAS BUILT A LIFE IN HELPING ALL PEOPLE.


PATRAPS WORK HELPS ALL PEOPLE  EVEN THOSE THAT DISAGREE WITH PATRAPS VIEWS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE PLANETS DAMAGED HEALTH.


IF A PERSON HELPS ALL EVEN THOSE THAT DISAGREE WITH THEM THAT IS THE UTMOST CARING ONE CAN GIVE, AND THAT IS WHAT PATRAP IS DOING.

 

I GREGORIO O. DE MOJECA APOLOGIZE FOR ANY MISUNDERSTANDING, I AM SORRY AND ASK ONE PLACE ON ME ANY NEGATIVES THAT FELL ON PATRAP FOR MY MISUNDERSTOOD WORDs.
I never called anyone anything Vizo, ...

I posted the article.


Thanx.