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New Orleans to Pensacola at high risk from Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2005

The Hurricane Hunters measured a central pressure of 949 mb at 11:14am EDT, up from the cental pressure of 941 mb measured at 7:07am EDT. Concentric eyewalls with diameters of 13 and 40 nm were reported, satellite images show that the eye has filled in with clouds and the cloud top temperatures have warmed. These observations indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun. This was expected, since the 7:07am Hurricane Huneter report indicated that the eye diameter had shrunk to 9 nm, about the smallest diameter one gets before an eyewall replacement cycle begins.

The maximum winds may fall below 115 mph while Katrina undergoes this eyewall replacement cycle, as the inner eyewall collapses and a new outer eyewall forms. This would make Katrina a strong Category 2 storm, and indeed the maximum winds seen so far by the Hurricane Hunters were only 87 knots (100 mph) at 10,000 feet. This is a temporary affliction, since Katrina is in nearly ideal conditions for strengthening, and is expected to reach Category 4 status by Sunday. The convection and outflow are starting to look better on the north side of the hurricane, and Katrina should have a more symmetrical shape typical of Category 4 hurricanes by Sunday. As seen in the cumulative wind image below, Katrina has increased markedly in size the past 12 hours, and will deliver a widespread damaging blow wherever she comes ashore.



The favorable intensification conditions for Katrina are expected to last up until landfall, when some increase in shear may occur. Intensification forecasts are highly unreliable, though, and it would be no surprise if Katrina were a Category 2, 3, or 4 landfall. The track forecast is getting more believable, as Katrina's westerly motion shows that it has begun it recurvature, pretty much where NHC and the models were predicting. A landfall between New Orleans and Pensacola is on track for Monday morning or afternoon. I expect a Category 3 storm at landfall.

I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastrophic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evacuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so--particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars.

Dr. Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

cat, good point on disaster info, but this is a good place to go to learn about the dynamics of the storm IMO.
right now allmajor models exceptone the ukmet takes her rigth over neworleasn. the ukmet has going a little east of new orleans making landfll near the ms/al border
I don't think Cantore would be stupid enough to try NOLA in a cat 4 or 5.....Maybe Catchaser would??? Here kitty kitty...
OK people I'm off to see a movie, but I'll be back in a couple hours. Good luck.
Lefty, I think you know that 99.9% of those who are lurking or participating in this blog appreciate your insight & comments. Too bad we can't seem to ignore idiots who have nothing else better to do than be an irritant.

anyone that is worried about the welfare of their family and relies on a message board for guidance... is an idiot..


omg
1008. FLPhil
If I remeber correctly the UKMET lead the charge to the west a couple of days ago. Who know's maybe it will lead the others back.
Cat when will you ever shut up...Girl is right no more feeding the monster
so, in summary of the 3 hours i have been gone, it isn't looking any better and is still headed in the worst possible place for LA....
well the issue now is how string will she be. all major intensity models forcast 130kts or higher. yeaterday only one did that was the gfdl, so when u figure 20 kt error you could see a storm of 130-150kts though its unlikley u would see a storm much stronger than 140kts. so best intesity range would be 140-160 and that is a strong cat4-minimal cat 5 and falls inline with what the nhc is thinking and forcasting, also remebr the thing that will determine if she is a cat4 or 5 will be her next eye wall cycle
flphil, but the ukmet actually adjusted way back too the east (while the other ones stayed on nola) and the ukmet has slowly been converging back WESTWARD now towards nola. It has gotten closer and closer (further and further west) all afternoon. I think it'll be a little east of New Orleans though based on the very recent northward jag. (it's right of all the NOLA models)
also the ukmet is the one model that has not been run again yet so it will most likely shift back west
1015. Jagger
If you are in New Orleans, it is time to get out.

Here is a link to a report of what would happen to New Orleans if Katrina follows the perfect storm track:

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane1.html

Also warnings out today from here:

http://www.nola.com/newslogs/breakingtp/index.ssf?/mtlogs/nola_Times-Picayune/archives/2005_08.html#074533

Saturday, August 27, 2005

Hurricane Center Director Warns New Orleanians

National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said Saturday afternoon that Hurricane Katrina will be at least a Category 4, with winds of 145 mph when it approaches the New Orleans area, and that it could be a Category 5, with winds of 155 mph or higher.
Meanwhile, computer model runs conducted by a team of Louisiana State University scientists indicate that even if Katrina had winds of only 115 mph, levees protecting Kenner, Metairie and New Orleans on the east bank will be overtopped by a 10- to 12-foot storm surge, topped by waves at least half that high, in some locations along Lake Pontchartrain.
"The guidance we get and common sense and experience suggests this storm is not done strengthening," Mayfield said in a telephone call from Miami-Dade County, which was hit by a Category 1 Katrina earlier in the week.
"This is really scary," he said. "This is not a test, as your governor said earlier today. This is the real thing."
Mayfield warned residents intent on not leaving in advance of Katrina to learn from the storm's effects in south Florida.
"We think this was a solid Category 1 when it made landfall here," he said. "But we had windows in new homes that blew in when they were designed for 145 mph winds."
Mayfield also warned people not to focus on the eye of the storm, as atmospheric conditions are perfect for Katrina's intensity to stretch far to the east and west of its eye.
"This thing is like Hurricane Opal," he said, referring to a huge 1995 hurricane that hit the Florida panhandle as a Category 3 storm. "We're seeing 12-foot seas along the Louisiana coast already."
Ivor van Heerden, a scientist at the LSU Hurricane Center, said he's also concerned that the waves atop the surge in Lake Pontchartrain could weaken levees and cause additional overtopping.
"The bottom line is this is a worst-case scenario and everybody needs to recognize it," he said. "You can always rebuild your house, but you can never regain a life. And there's no point risking your life and the lives of your children."

Please keep posting the links as you have been. I've been sharing them with my family and advising them accordingly. Living in FtLaud., I can't physically help my family members. I CAN call them and share info. We are all looking for the 8:00p advisory. Thanks for helping, everyone. This is a nightmare for those of us with family members in the path of Katrina.
catchaser- your insite inspires none! your postings are a waste of electrcity! and sence you seem to have all of the awnsers why dont you go run for president and solve globel hunger or better yet go hit your head on a large bolder. if the bolder thing doent suit your fancy than just unplug your pc, we dont give 2 shi#s what you have to say! you should have been a bj
what was that thing called, when storms get stronger around nightfall?
Pretty sure she is starting to take that northward turn. So far I think Biloxi is where this thing is headed. Everything right now points that direction. It is start to turn north and Cantore is here. HA
Wherever Katrina hits, it's gonna suck. Just hope it's not N'awlins...
diurinal cooling
thanks, still forgetting the vocabulary
1023. mobal
Lefty, your thoughts on Mobile?
LEFTY!!! (just to get your att.) If a strong cat.4 or low 5 hits west of me (Magee, Ms) What kind of winds could I expect here??? (I know it is ballpark, but you and stormtop have knocked out homeruns so far)
Cantori being in Biloxi is not a great sign....
this storm is huge. i think it doesn'tmatter where she makes landfall. the whole coast there will be hit hard. now a direct hit to no would finish that city. my thoughts are that she will actually hit just east of the city. mobile will be hit hard as well
Fortlauderdalegirl: Have they finished cleaning up A1A yet and reopened the beaches?
A year ago, there was a "Hurricane Pam" simulation of a Cat 3 hurricane hitting N.O. http://www.fema.gov/news/newsrelease.fema?id=13051
A related article quotes a red cross estimate at 25,000 to 100,000 deaths.
Link
1030. mobal
Gee lefty, I fill beter. East side stinks
I hadn't realized this about hurricanes, but it probably won't apply to our friend Katrina since she is Cat 3+

Diurnal Variations in the Landfall Times of Tropical Cyclones over the Eastern United States
Issn: 1520-0493 Journal: Monthly Weather Review Volume: 129 Issue: 10 Pages: 2627-2631
Authors: Konrad, Charles E.
Article ID:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)1292.0.CO;2

ABSTRACT

Best track tropical cyclone data are examined for the period 195096 to estimate the landfall times of all tropical storms and hurricanes over the coastal margins of the eastern United States. The analysis reveals a marked diurnal pattern with tropical cyclones making landfall more frequently during the evening and midmorning hours. Lulls in cyclone landfall are identified during the afternoon and early in the morning. Weak hurricanes display the strongest diurnal cycle of landfall. Category 3 and stronger hurricanes display little diurnal variation in landfall time. An examination of the diurnal pattern of cyclone passages within 300 km of the coast reveals that the pattern is most coherent and displays the greatest statistical significance at the coastline (i.e., points of cyclone landfall).
Jim Cantore is either an unbelievable hurricane forecaster or a human hurricane magnet. I started to get worried when I saw his bald head down on the beach.
BIGDADDY1978 -- Yes, I believe the beaches are open. A1A was open the next day -- people were driving over the sand :). I saw a news clip showing the sand being cleaned up later. Back to your newsanchor cousin on Ch. 10 -- you gave me a clue -- male. African-American or Caucasian?? I need another hint :).
1034. FLPhil
For those interested on the current forecasted windswath go here:Link
It was not updated last time I looked & now I can't get it to load. If anyone tries the link tell me if it works/shows up.
1035. wxgssr
Hello from the Wx cave, LOL. House takes on an eery feel when its all boarded up. Off to Sat nite poker game over in Gulfport...will check back in later.
so lefty is this thing going to develop or what its been a cat 3 for a day now just wondering who is this catchaser guy not another stormtop i hope
Cantore is crazy, but possibly in an intellegent way :)
Like I said earlier...I don't think Jim Cantore is stupid enough to try to ride out a severe hurricane in La.
My prayers for everyone..
1040. mobal
No science here but Jim Cantore seems to always be on the W. side
well if ur near the coast u sghould expect danaging winds and a huge surge but it depends on how far u ar from the center.. u will be in the more damaging sine the ne quadrant and would see the worst conditions. also chances for tornados are high. i would say that since u are in a hurricane watch u should plan for a landfall. if ur communioty issues volountary eveacs u should leave. also now is the time if u haven't to plan for the owrst. prepare to be without of power for a lomg period of time. u need to protect ur property so u have no loose flying debri but u should def plan for the owrse and pray for the best
FlPhil, linked worked nice, thanks!
yes
I'm no "expert" but it still looks like its headed somewhere between Gulfport and Biloxi. Having said that, If I were in NOLA, I'd leave. Some things aren't worth the gamble.
Which might be why he is in Biloxi...if i am getting the drift?
> Jim Cantonre is doing a live report, advising people of the Voluntary Evacuation for MS. Telling them to go to Baton Rouge! Huh?

Yeah, I believe westbound I-10 is closed at the LA state line.

We're still not beathing easy here in Pensacola. God help whoever gets in the way of this nasty storm.

Those of you in coastal Mississippi thinking about getting out: you might wanna work the northbound state roads off Hwy 49. We'd always take the back routes through the backwoods, rather than the big feeders. Hwy 15 to hwy 57 at Beaumont is a good call -- never much traffic, and you can keep going north through Richton until you find shelter (or cut over onto 49 well north of the crush). Highways 613 and 57 are infinitely preferable to the bigger feeders. Just don't get caught out.

Just checked I-10 here in Pensacola. Still quite moderate. Roll east towards Tally until you find accommodations. Important, though: we are having spot gas shortages in Pensacola and you may have trouble finding fuel, even in town. Plan ahead. Good luck.
Hey there all. Long time lurker around wunderground, finally decided I might as well pop in an account. I'm on the northshore @ covington just below the I-12 (Literally about 200 feet from it).

Family and I are staying here for the time being, but prepared for an emergency get the hell out of dodge tommorow if she gets to a strong 4-5 range and stays. (Dont worry, house is beyond code and we're about 15 feet above the bayou and several miles off the lake.) I'll be recording everything I can and will upload when able.. Digi's ready as are notebooks and a laptop. (No worries about doing anything stupid. Family's got betsy and camille survivors so I know just what this can do.)

Now, as far as the storm goes.. Ive been following and catching right along, if you follow me. Considering the size of the storm currently, how far west would you figure hurricane force winds will extend? Just a ballpark figure, Im well aware this isnt exact. But I've a friend out in hammond that wants to know if she's safe. (Above the 12) And to be honest, Ive not got a clue as far as it goes for that area. (20 miles west of Covington/Mandeville. As a side note, C/M is almost directly on 90w on the north side of lake ponchitrain for reference.)

Thanks in advance, and appologies for the long post.
I am copying this from my blog in case anyone evacuating tonight may benefit...

I just want to wish for the safety of everyone in harm's way. We will most certainly lose Internet contact with many bloggers in the hurricane's path as power systems fail, and this will concern those of us who have made online friends whom we have never met in person. As part of the "lifeline," after the storm passes, I will gladly post updates for any WU members who lose power (but maintain some sort of phone service) and wish to pass along their experiences or verify their safety to your concerned fellow bloggers throughout the country. If this is something that may interest you, please write down my home (Arizona) phone number BEFORE the power fails. Feel free to call anytime and leave a message with your handle (screen name) and what you wish to have posted. Evacuees at hotels and shelters who want to "check in" with messages to online pals are also welcome to call. Your safety and well-being mean a lot to all of us.

I will also gladly relay messages by telephone or email to loved ones who for any reason you are unable to reach...especially if you are in imminent danger of losing battery power to your telephone and need to establish contact. I will be home without interruption through next Wednesday, so please do not hesitate to call day or night if you need this service

My phone number is (6o2) 279-113o

PLEASE be safe, everyone...
First Baptist Church Magee, Ms. has opened a shelter....
1050. FLPhil
Ok EZ, must be something with my computer settings...
1051. iyou
FLPhil - it worked for me also - thanks
southernlady, you never want a storm like this to hit west of you unless it is a couple hundred miles. The east, northeast part of the storm is the worst.
1053. AySz88
errantlythought: this map (just posted by someone else) shows one projected extant of the winds (hurricane force is all the red and worse).

Aren't you under that mandatory evacuation south of I-12 I've been hearing about over the web broadcast?
1054. FLPhil
If anyone has problems with the link previously posted you can also find the windswath here: Link Just scroll down & you will find it.
lefty// on WV imagery she appers to be keeping the north motion, and the eyewall cycle appers to be near an end ,, what do you make of the motion
1056. Phlyer
I know this has been asked before, but I didn't see an answer to it.

Does anyone think that Pensacola is going to get hit? I want to evacuate if we are going to get hit here, but with all the uncertainty of this storm I just don't know.
the motion is wnw and she will wobble as allmojor hurricanes do. she is right ontrack with what the nhc has said for a couple days and all the models. i see ehr making landfall pretty closeto the nhc track for this storm
Katrina now moving wnw.
Check out this plot of the windspeed and pressure at the buoy closest to the hurricane (still ~100 nm away)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42003&meas=wdpr&uom=E

Link

EZ
phlyer u loomto be safe but u should have all preperations ready for if u need to leave in a hurry. if u feel uneasy than just leave. what will it hurt mayube ur pocket a little. only u know if u feel safe for your location and ur home. but atleast u should be prepared and have a plan in place.
Toyotaman, yes I know..thanks, this old house made it through Camille..It is actually a house built on top of a house...Walls 8 inches thick....
i aggree lefty just wanted to see if you thought there was any chance left of a more esatern hit, sence the NHC seems to have a split the diffrenc approach with the models at times, and that dosent always wok out.
Indeed we are just barely inside of the mandatory evac area, but when you've lived around this area so long you start to learn the areas that flood. As far as that is concerned, even in a storm of this magnitude we're fine where we are.. The 12 at covington/mandeville has a tendancy to be safer than what most people think.

Thats not to say if she's a strong cat 4 we wont be hitting little used back roads that are not much more than gravel (Im so glad I bought my jeep ^.^). But as of right now, we're safe enough and have access to emergency areas fairly easily. (block and a half roughly through woods to a local hospital. Coverable in dire need. Plus my family's old hand as it were.)
000
WTNT32 KNHC 272350
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH AND
25-FOOT WAVES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

DATA FROM BUOYS INDICATE THAT 12-FOOT WAVES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
remeebr we can do our best to predict where we think they will go but only katrina knows where she is headed. be prepared to leave and keep watching her
It's the least I can do from here, SouthernLady. Wishing you and everyone in Katrina's path the strength to get through this...

Take care :)
As a side note, there were a few slip ups today.

1. New Orleans is already planned for a total evac, the mayor of Biloxi gave that one away on TWC.

2. Contra-flow (All four lanes evac) was supposed to start at 4, it didnt get moving around here till 5:30 at least.. But the traffic really is surprisingly light.

3. Im sort of concerned: I have seen VERY FEW people leaving.
Does anyone know of a graphical storm surge forecast?
Phyler: I'm in Pensacola, too. I can't answer for you as to whether you should evacuate, but bear in mind that hurricanes are forces of nature, and no one can say what one will do for certain.

Even though it's been looking as if the storm will wind up west of the Pensacola area, a quicker turn to the north or a jog to the right that is unexpected could put us in or near its path. And at this point, if it does come nearby, it will probably be to the west of us, which (as with Ivan) would put us on the worst side...

If you're really wanting to evacuate should this thing come to town, then the best advice I can give you is get everything ready to go and then watch it like a hawk. When your gut says 'go', go. At least you're not ignoring it, so you're already ahead of the game.
If I were the Hurricane I'd be afraid of Jim Cantore. ;)
errrr...why are the highways leaving new orleans empty? Traffic cams make the highways look like they run through a ghost town...
1075. FLPhil
I found something called wave heights...don't know if this is what you are looking for Link
Just a small peeve...television coverage is lacking for the MS Gulf Coast while NO has two stations giving almost nonstop coverage. Even the Weather Channel has Jim C. on Biloxi beach. Don't know why WLOX is not giving this more coverage. For those of you heading out to the highways, a good info site is MPB on 90.3 AM and, of course, the AM channels for LA.
Thats honestly what I'm wondering about, We. During Ivan it was a bumper-to-bumper zone on 190 from the causeway towards the 12 and 59.. right now? Its moving along like a normal 5pm evening.
Folks, Ivan was suppose to hit NO last year. Guess who got it.... :(


About that surge graph there is one posted earlier in this Blog but you have to select storm surge when you click it.



HurricaneIvanSurvivor
P-Cola
The buoy plot is kind of interesting cause it really shows what happens when the hurricane comes. It's not like one minute it's nice weather and the next minute you're dealing with 100+mph hr winds. You're in it for the long run with a buildup buildup buildup of storm intensity that by the time the real punch comes, you've already been in the midst of a miserable storm for a full day.
That wind map is big. Anyone have any idea what the radius of the hurricane force winds are?
I'd like to make a point ( cal me a conspiracy theorist, I don't care) We all know that this is the last week ending with the Labor Day weekend of major tourism...We also know that the Almighty Dollar rules...it means more than peoples lives to a lot of sicko's out there...This is why I'm getting my info here instead of mainstream news. It's also why I think Stormtop popped a cork yesterday...He did nail it, and thanks to him a family wedding was successful here today when mos tof the folks were comeing from Bat.Rou. or south of there. I told them, they made preps..brought the pets and extra clothes, and are now having a 'hurricane party' in Jackson, Ms.

Thanks STORMTOPS and LEFTY!!!
1083. tessa
I just a post that TS winds are out 160 miles and hurricane force are out 45 miles.
Not quite... Katrina is actually North or to the right of the forecast point at the moment. She did jog Northward earlier as reported by the RECON aircraft.

The most recent motion has been NW, not WNW, but of course a WNW track is suppose to continue tonight into tomorrow. This just makes my prediction of a landfall to the east of New Orleans more likely but the question is how far to the east.

In regards to the models, the 18Z model run of the GFS actually shifted slightly to the east when compared to the 12Z GFS model run. So I do not expect the UKMET to shift back westward. In fact, I think all the models will gradually shift eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama area before this is all said and done.
Yanno the really disturbing part about all of this? There are still tourists and people walking around burbon street.

http://www.nola.com/bourbocam/

Ive seen several sherrifs drive past slowly, nobody seems to care.
1088. FLPhil
Joshfsu123 I feel (for what its worth in my amature opinion) that is very likely
yeah i know right
1090. AySz88
JaxAdjuster: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER

ErrantlyThought: I wouldn't risk it if I were you. People are still talking about "maybe Cat. 5" with this storm, I'd say they're pretty certain with medium-strong category 4.
1091. AySz88
(that was a quote from the bulletin, just so you don't think I'm shouting at you)
What happened to Stormtops??? He said he would be back at 5:00est...
STORMTOPS WEATHER SERVICE BULLETIN 1930PM

WE FINALLY ARE LOOKING BETTER IN NEW ORLEANS ..THE LATEST RECON FIX WV AND IR LOOPS INDICATE KATRINA IS MOVING WNW TO NW AT 8MPH...THIS IS GOOD FOR NEW ORLEANS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL HAVE TO SHIFT THE TRACK AT 10PM EAST OF NEW ORLEANS ...NEW ORLEANS WILL MISS THE EYE THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE PART OF THE STORM AND THE MAJOR THREAT SHIFTS TO THE MISS GULF COAST TO GULFPORT...KATRINA IS NOW BEING GRAPED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS OVER TEXAS AND IS NOW INFLUENCING KATRINAS MOVEMENT...IM ISSUING MY HURRICANE WARNINGS FROM THE GRAND ISLE AREA TO PENSECOLA FLORIDA...MY PROJECTED LAND FALL HAS CHANGED TO THE GULFPORT AREA AND THIS WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH DIGS DEEPER...KATRINA IS STRENGTHING AND I WOULD NOT AT ALL BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS APPROACHING 140 MPH BY THE 10 PM ADVISORY...NEW ORLEANS WILL STILL GET HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IF THIS MOVEMENT CONTINUES WILL MISS THE CORE OF THE STORM...THATS THE WORSE PART OF THE STORM...I FEEL FOR THE PEOPLE ON THE GULF COAST IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE REAL DANGER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO THE GULF COAST AND THE MOBILE AREA WHERE THEY WOULD BE ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CENTER...NEW ORLEANS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL DODGE ANOTHER BULLET AND THAT FINE WITH ME...I CAN TAKE 100MPH WINDS AND 10 INCHES OF RAIN THAT SHOULD BE OUR WORSE WEATHER...EAST OF NEW ORLEANS THE WEATHER WILL BE VERY BAD FOR THE MISS GULF COAST AND MOBILE AND PENSECOLA AREA....GULFPORT TO MOBILE COULD EXPERIENCE CAT 5 WINDS OF 17O MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE NHC WILL SHIFT THE TRACK TO THE EAST OF NEW ORLEANS BECAUSE KATRINA HAS AMPLE TIME TO MAKE THE FULL TURN TOWARDS THE GULF COAST NEAR GULFPORT....HEADS UP PEOPLE ON THE MISS ALABAMA AND NEAR PENSECOLA YOU WILL BE IN THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM AS SHE MOVES ON SHORE SPARING A DIRECT HIT TO THE NEW ORLEANS AREA....I WILL HAVE MORE AT 5AM IN THE MORNING.....THIS HAS BEEN A BULLETIN FROM THE STORM TOPS NWS 2135PM.................................
Josh, we are "tracking" about Kats landfall. Looks like between Gulfport and Biloxi to me.
Here's a graphical representation of the growth of the wind swath (amazing how it's grown from the same figure earlier today)



Link
1096. USAmet
check out the wv floater, put on the lat\long and the prediction points, it is going north of the predicted track right now

Link
1097. sewmap
Does anyone know, as the crow flys, how far it is from the MS/AL border to p-cola? I am in p-cola woring for fema(due to Dennis) and will be here even if it does hit p-cola directly. I was just trying to figure out what kind of ride I'm in for if it hits the probable MS/AL border...
As if on cue....hehe
bamm just ran and she shfited nowhere. the new ships calls for 131kts winds at landfall thats 150mph. also remebr there is a 20 kt forcast error. all signs point to a error infavor of a stronger storm.

looks like 140-160mph will be a good bet


rigth now the ships models is forcasting in the midlle of that range at 150mph
about 100 miles give or take some
1101. AySz88
Um... on the very latest visible frame, it looks like the center shifted SW a little and is back on the track?
1102. IKE
STORMTOP....I agree with you this time...I think it will go east of New Orleans...how far east is questionable. Looking at an IR of katrina...she is one classic looking storm and I hate to say that for folks sake. That dam storm takes up half of the Gulf of Mexico. I bet her winds increase with the next advisory or by tomorrow morning. For everyone's sake...I hope she weakens.

1103. sewmap
Thanks lefty

This has been quite the learning experience for me!! Anybody have any thoughts on the current low pressure area in the atlantic about 1300 miles east of the windwards
major hurricanes wobble. you can not take every wobble as a movement. she ie generly headed in a wnw motion at the moment
770
URNT12 KNHC 280034
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/00:01:40Z
B. 24 deg 50 min N
085 deg 51 min W
C. 700 mb 2587 m
D. 45 kt
E. 217 deg 056 nm
F. 285 deg 090 kt
G. 209 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 942 mb
I. 10 C/ 3042 m
J. 18 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E12/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1512A KATRINA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 90 KT SW QUAD 23:59:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19C 320/6NM FROM FL CENTER
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB
RAGGED EYE WALL
lolwhich one there are 2.

the most northern one will likely for in to a cyclone but her life is short. she willbe wisked northward and out to sea

the one south of that looks much better. most models forma signifcant cyclone in 72hrs but around day 4 or 5 she is expected to recurve out to see. we need to watch her though cause she will be headed towards the east coast and the forcasts out past 72hrs are really unreliable at this point
The latest recon report basically says the pressure is slowly falling, but the core structure has changed little over the last several hours. The eyewall is still ragged and the surface winds are still way behind the pressure.
1108. AySz88
Well yes, but it looks close enough to the track that the wobble brought it right back to the track?
she is pretty much on the forcast track. i still have high confidence she will hit no or just to the east. unless she turns n any time soon and i don't see that happening
hwakeye i think once she gets her eye together we will see a drmatic drop in pressure and her winds will finally get caught up. she will proly be close to a cat 5 by morning
distance between AL/MS line and Pcola is about 70 miles we are sitting here waiting on the eastern shore of Mobile Bay... hoping it stays west
Y'all give us a lot of helpful information. Thanks.
Sorry for being too long/personal earlier today. Not used to internet discussions.
Isn't it something? I checked the traffic cams earlier and am amazed at how little traffic there is.

I know I posted this earlier but thought I would again for anyone looking for shelter info for family or friends or themselves.

Shelter Information:
Red Cross- 1(866)-GET-INFO (438-4636)
Emergency Shelter Information Points:
Tourist Welcome Center, US 65 & 84, 1401 Carter St. (US 84), Vidalia, LA
Tourist Welcome Center, TA Truck Stop, Tallulah Exit (Hwy 65 & I 20)
Paragon Casino, 711 Paragon Place, Marksville LA
Sammy's Truck Stop, I-49, Exit 53, 3601 LA 115W, Bunkie, LA
Med Express Office, 7525 US 71, Alexandria, LA

I am at work till 7 in the a.m. so if my phone doesn't ring off the hook, you guys are going to keep me company.
To see any big strengthening Katrina will have to get rid of this pinwheel convection it has had all day. Intense hurricanes with surface wind to match have a solid ring of deep convection around a distinct eye, and Katrina clearly has neither.
thanks for the numbers.


ur welcome we all do what we can

i will be here with you lol. u know i never get off
well we will see. i have seen some intense hurricanes with a oin wheeel configurration. the supper typhoon earlier this year in the western pacific comes to mind
1117. IKE
Good point Hawkeyewx...maybe she won't rev up...big this storm is HUGE!
Appears to me it has wobbled a little more NorthWestward on the last few frames to the point of having a more poleward component than the forecast track...anyone seeing the same thing I am? (Select Forecast Track box on link below)

Link
Yes, the storm is becoming quite large. It seems this evening's drop in pressure has gone toward expanding the storm/windfield instead of tightening up the core.
Sorry..slite sideline here...Mom & Dad found a 'tiny' baby sqirrel on the ground, she tried feeding it regular milk, I said no go to Walmart and get the kitten formula. Is that ok?

God I'm so sorry, pm me with answers instead of messing up the thread anymore...
im bac, i hav a damage report and a small tropical update in my blog. as promised i will soon have a katrina update for the gulf coast in my blog.
lol yeah southern that sounds better than some cows milk

i think i amgoing to try to catch a nap so i will be good for tonight. be back sooner if anything changes. catch yall in a bit
Is there anyway to see if an eye develops after dark? The satelite photos I was looking at are, obviously, no longer useful.
That buoy I sent the plot for earlier is now about 86 nm from the storm center and is recording 30.5 ft waves. Over hurricane-force gusts (and again this is 86 nautical miles away)
still not north of 25?????
SL, get some powdered milk from a farmers supply store. Regular milk will do OK in a pinch but it doesn't have the fat content the squirrel will need.
1127. IKE
The buoy 260 miles south of Panama City has a 65 mph east wind with waves at THIRTY-ONE FEET! More beach erosion! Dammit!
Jax..as far as I know nexrad is your best bet, just remember it can't look al the way 'through' the eye, so even if it looks whopsided...it may not be...
Yes, Katrina is still to the North/Right of the forecast points, by a good bit actually. It would have to move due west for an hour or two for it to get back on line.

Here in Tallahassee, the NWS has updated our Monday forecast from Heavy Rain to Heavy Rain, Thunder, and Wind.

I didn't think I would say this but I agree with StormTop. I think this system will move to the east of New Orleans and probably make landfall near the Alabama/Mississippi border.

More importantly the 00Z model runs should have new atmosphere data from the afternoon and those runs may give us a more accurate picture of whether or not New Orleans should really be worried or if it will go to their east. As the TROF continues to dig, it should turn North tomorrow.
WOW! 86 miles away and wind and waves like that. Wherever this thing hits will have a tough go of it.
Thanks Jax...we have the squirrel taken care of as much as can be...Now back to Katrina, sorry guys, got a soft heart...
Several Aggies playing in the Texans/Cowboys game.........
WWHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOPPPP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Josh,

Lord! I hope not. That would put my house in the NW eyewall here in West Mobile County, AL. I am praying for landfall in the Southern Lousiana marsh in sparsely poulated areas.
My officer just reported that hwy 90 here in st mary parish, the west bound lane has pretty heavy traffic but they are moving along well. Probably folks from terrebonne and lafourche parishes.
To anyone in New Orleans, I just took RIVER ROAD to Baton Rouge and it only took 90 min. no traffic!!
THe local TV (CH4) just said that up to 20% of NO Residents are expected to stay...not evacuate...thts 600,000 people...i understand the 60,000 tht have no cars,...but what are the pother 540,000 people thinking???
They are not thinking! If they were, they'd be getting out of NO.
I know Orleans77, the Quarter was busy all day while I boarded up my Girls store. People even took pictures of me. They aren't taking this storm serious.
1139. IKE
I think this storm is going in east of New Orleans...maybe those that stay behind will be okay. Some folks just won't leave no matter what. My mom is the same way. I left for Ivan, Opal, and Dennis, She stayed home here in Defuniak Springs, Fl. and rode them all out. She has more b*lls then I do!
It is easy not to evacuate, because noone has been able to pin point where the storm is going. Everyone thinks it won't hit where they are. Maybe the models will quit shifting back and forth between LA and MS/AL and pin point something...Im getting a headache ...
SouthernLady - soy milk!!! You can mix w/a little evaporated (NOT sweetened condensed!). We raised a baby squirrel on the stuff and he lived for 8 years - loved Letterman and orange popsicles in his later years ;-)
Steve Gregory just updated his analysis. It is pretty insightful. Click over to read.
For those that can make it to Laurel,Ms. Take Hyw 28 to Magee, no traffic, then 541 (if you want to go farther north) to hyw 18 in Puckett, go left on 18 to Brandon, Ms. and you can either take I-20 to I-55 there or go hyw 80 east or west.
Max Mayfield was just on and said that 1) a Cat 4 or higher will seriously damage or destroy 80 - 90 % of all structures should it be a direct hit.....2) that in such a scenario the death toll could reach as high as 50% of those remaning...THESE PEOPLE NEED TO GET OUT OF NO!!
1145. IKE
Plus it takes money to evacuate and with gas prices the way they are...it isn't easy.
The maginn 25 has been reached.

"27/2345 UTC 25.0N 86.0W T5.0/6.0 KATRINA -- Atlantic Ocean"
I agree..jus read Steve Gregory's Analysis..I agree with the idea of Oil Prices jumping although think we could even hit 80/bbl...also FOX said that 50% of all Oil Rigs in Gulf are in path of hurricane and 30% of the Country's Refinery Capacity are in SE Lousiana....
That Burban st NO cam was great~ cusing the cane & partin to brown eyed girl. Go look, might never be the same.
Guys, I'm a newbie here, so i dont expect much attention. But it seems like the posts have gotten much less technical, and much more personal. I'm very interested in this storm, it's dynamics, and it's track.
For those of us who live in hurricane pron areas, learning as much as possible about these storms seems prudent. I very much enjoy the "technical" posts, but it seems IM might be a better medium for some of the more " off topic" posts.

Just a thought.
Shoreacres thanks!!They went and got the kitten formula tonight...If it lives through the night I will go get it tommorrow. they just aren't animal people, but they do have a heart towards babies...I wonder how my little yorkie will like it?????

Sorry folks...carry on..Katrina...
Please leave if you are able to, this is a huge hurricane, and it will be extremely intense at landfall. This is not a joke, its not worth it to try and ride it out. New Orleans should be deserted if it already isn't, the French quarter alone will be under 10-20 feet of water.
ORLEANS77 -- Are you leaving or staying?? What part of NO do you live in?? Please keep us posted on what the local channels/Max Mayfield is advising because we don't have access. Thanks!!
FortlauderdaleGirl I actually go to school at LSU but have been in NO for the summer..in the french quarter
ORLEANS77 -- If you are in the FR QTR, where are you going?? Even if you are in a taller structure, you won't be able to get out once its underwater.
latest NHC 144MPH with 178MPH GUSTS at LANDFALL
The New Orleans newspaper, The Times-Picayune, published an in-depth article about the impact of a serious hurricane on New Orleans. If you haven't already read it, you should:
Link

I grew up in the New Orleans area, and lived through Betsy and Camille. I'm very thankful I don't live there any more.
Steve's blog is great. Here's the link

Link
Shoreacres.............you in Shoreacres, Tx.?
Here's a ImpactWeather Tropical Update:


Hurricane Katrina - Advisory 19
Issued: 08:29 PM CDT Saturday August 27, 2005

At 9PM CDT, Hurricane Katrina will be near 24.0N/86.1W, or about 365 miles southeast of New Orleans, LA. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 115 mph. Movement is to the west-northwest at 7 mph. Minimum pressure was recently measured by recon at 942 millibars or 27.82 inches.


Our forecast remains unchanged for the most part. We've indicated a very gentle turn to the west-northwest over the next 6-12 hours, followed by a northwesterly turn on Sunday morning as high pressure to the north of the hurricane weakens. Confidence in the general track remains good, but until Katrina is moving to the northwest and north-northwest on Sunday afternoon, we won't really be too certain of the exact point of landfall. Latest model guidance remains fixed on southeast Louisiana. Some of the better models take the center right over New Orleans on Monday afternoon.


Concerning Katrina's intensity, the hurricane began an eyewall replacement cycle earlier today. The old, small inner eye has fallen apart, while the new, larger eye has begun to slowly contract. As it does so, surface winds should increase significantly. By sunrise on Sunday, we think that Katrina will have intensified to a strong Category 3 or a minimal Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130-135 mph. Katrina will pass over a pool of very warm water on Sunday, at which time it could reach near Category 5 strength of 150 mph. We do expect that Katrina will weaken a little prior to landfall, but it will likely be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall with 135-145 mph wind.


Katrina could produce a storm surge of 12-16 feet near the mouth of the Mississippi River as it moves ashore. However, this surge could increase to 17-20 feet across southeast Louisiana, including the Greater New Orleans, area as the center moves by on Monday afternoon.


The next commentary and forecast track will be issued near 3AM CDT.


George Harvey
Im not in FQ now...ive been visiting my folks in New York for the last week..was supposed to fly back tomorrow to pack up my summer apt in FQ and move back to LSU..up until this morning i was still going but with much persuasion from the folks, im staying put...I hope i have something to return to...
17 to 20 feet surge?? Yikes...if that happens my apt is gone and i lose all my stuff...im on the ground floor in the french quarter
just wondering.......i fish the pier there by the boat ramp every morning before work....around 4 am....get a few trout to take to work for lunch......
ORLEANS77 -- Don't worry about your apt. -- you'll have your life and your future) :). I feel much better now -- thought you were still in the QTR.
Thats true // i feel so bad for all the people stayin behind..
ffl girl im wathcing a local feed on the internet...CH 4..want the link?
and if you are, can you get those cops off of 146?
1167. hmfynn
I just want to say something to the people who insist on criticize New Orleans residents who are not leaving.

it's not an easy decision to make

Let's say you do manage to pick up and get out the way of a storm that destroys the city...then what? Your hotel reservations may only cover a week or so at most, assuming you could even get them in time. When they run out, where do you go? Not everyone has friends or family elsewhere to stay with. For many people, getting out of the way will do no good if they have nowhere to go home to. Being stuck in another state when your home and possibly place of employment is destroyed and no fixed residence is a scary thought. Others have family who, for some reason or another, can't leave and whom they wouldn't dream of abandoning. I agree staying in the city at this point is almost suicide, but for some, there's not much alternative.

We shouldn't assume that everyone who's riding this out is naive, or lazy, or just plain stupid. For some of us, it's simply a matter of having resigned ourselves to fate and leaving it to nature's devices. Call it stoicism if you're going to call it anything.
Link

they have an ongoing LIVE link...been going since 4pm
jus click on: Watch continuous coverage from Eyewitness News.
Yes - that would be great! I wondered HOW you were getting local info. in NY, but didn't want imply any ridiculous "faker" nonsense again :) -- no way. LOL. I believe you! (Glad we're all off that craziness!)

hmfynn i get ur point..but with 50% fatality rates being homeless and w/out money is still better than dead...and if NO has 1000's of dead..is under 30 ft of water, is contaminated by sewage and chemicals...sssuming you survive do you honestly think that will be the better place to be??
1172. Canenut
Good evening all, thanks for the link Orleans77.
No prob...u try it? some of the coverage is repetitive...however nothing liek the local angel...
You are very welcome
Just checked my local news site...no hotels or motels in the Alexandria/Pineville area....best bet is Shreveport or TX...
1176. Canenut
New entry from Jeff Masters
New Orleans finally got serious and ordered an evacuation, but far too late. There is no way everyone will be able to get out of the city in time, and they may be forced to take shelter in the Superdome, which is above sea level. If Katrina makes a direct hit on New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane, the levees protecting the city will be breached, and New Orleans, which is 6 - 10 feet below sea level, will fill with water. On top of this 6 feet of water will come a 15 foot storm surge, and on top of that will be 20 foot waves, so the potential for high loss of life is great. Given the current track and intensity forecast, I'd put the odds of this at about 20%.

Dr. Jeff Masters
People wanna switch over the new blog entry for forum?
1179. hmfynn
Orleans77, you're right, and don't get me wrong, I completely agree that as many people should get out and as soon as possible. I am by no means advocating riding this thing out. I'm just saying, responding to the "what are those idiots still in N.O. thinking?" trend I've been seeing, that for some it's a difficult decision and the longer they wait, they more rooms fill up, the closer things get, and, unfortunately, they get stuck.

I'm not saying people SHOULD stay, by any means. I'm just saying the people who are chosing to ride it out didn't do so out of laziness or ignorance. Truly a sad situation for everyone involved, and my prayers go out to them and to anyone in the Grand Isle and Cocodrie/Robinson Canal areas if this thing shifts a little more west.
N.O. emergency managemeny officals are idios, its to late to get everyone out, if this storm goes ther at the expected intencity, it will be ...well . some will be sorry they didnt get out
1181. Dragoon
Almost every discussion on every news station I've seen expects this storm to weaken before landfall. Why? Perhaps due to an eyewall replacement cycle.. but waters are even warmer along the coast than they are over the open Gulf. Sure they're shallow, but Katrina will be moving fast enough to avoid upwelling.