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New NHC revelations; Atlantic tropical update; Hawaii watches Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:47 PM GMT on July 19, 2007

There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, but we will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance. The UKMET model is forecasting the development of a low pressure system here on Sunday. This low may be an ordinary extratropical storm, though, due to the presence of high wind shear.

Large amounts of dry air and African dust cover the eastern Atlantic, and this dusty air is moving westward towards the Caribbean. Tropical storm development is unlikely in this region for the coming five days. Thereafter, as a major shift in the Northern Hemisphere weather pattern puts a ridge of high pressure in place over the Eastern U.S., the Saharan dust outbreaks may decrease. Additionally, wind shear over the tropical Atlantic is expected to decrease substantially by next week, and chances of tropical storm formation are much higher next week than they were this week.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Depression Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is struggling with 10-20 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures of about 25 degrees C. Satellite imagery of the storm shows that the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some this morning, and it is possible that the unfavorable shear and SSTs will kill the depression before it encounters warmer waters and lower shear on Friday. If Cosme does survive the next 24 hours, it could re-intensify to a weak tropical storm and brush the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

More on the National Hurricane Center controversy
In an article published in the Houston Chronicle yesterday, senior hurricane specialist James Franklin said that employees of the center were not coerced by NOAA management into signing the July 5 letter of no confidence against director Bill Proenza. This view was echoed by NHC's top administrator in an Orlando Sentinel article. Franklin outlined a variety of reasons why the staff lost confidence in Proenza--Proenza lacked experience in hurricane forecasting and showed little interest in learning the science, ignored his employees to the tune of 2000 unread email from them, and lied to the press about his employees' reaction to his reprimand from NWS chief Mary Glackin.

Also in the Houston Chronicle story is the revelation that Proenza never applied for the position of director of NHC. He was demoted into it, according to Daniel Sobien, president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization. This raises the question, who put Proenza into the job? Why did they do it? Hopefully, this will get answered at today's congressional hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; emergency management officials who worked with Proenza; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. With the exception of Lautenbacher, all these witnesses are likely to be allies of Proenza. Also testifying will be Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel today. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify is anyone from the National Hurricane Center. Also absent is a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments, that I have seen, the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. In fact, in comments published in the Orlando Sentinel, Dr. Atlas claimed that Proenza's statement that loss of the loss of QuikSCAT could reduce the accuracy of hurricane-track forecasts by as much as 16 percent represents "the consensus of the scientific community." Well, that is not the case, as myself and senior hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center will attest to. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid--at today's hearing.

The hearing charter for today's hearing raises these questions:

Why was Proenza chosen to be Director of the highest profiled Center at NOAA?

Beyond the items listed in the Glackin memorandum--which NOAA stresses was not a reprimand document and was not placed in Mr. Proenza's personnel file--are there any other actions that better justify the action to place Proenza on leave?

Why was there such a depth of dissatisfaction over Proenza's focus on a particular satellite?

What is needed to properly equip the Tropical Prediction Center, and are those resources available at this time?

Was the Tropical Prediction Center incapable of carrying out its core task of identifying, tracking and predicting hurricanes before the evaluation team was dispatched by Admiral Lautenbacher?

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. IKE
With FEMA....IGNORING contaminated trailers...people sick...dying...the last thing this country needs is another major hurricane.

Our government at work...doing their best for their own people. Pitiful.........
Hey Ike (in Bonifay for the last two days); I'm certainly not as good, or as hardcore, as many of our regulars (Drak/Nash/Taz, etc.), but, given the pending BH set-up, and the very warm waters in the GOM, I have a "gut" feeling that we, unfortunately, are going to see a major cane hit somewhere in the Gulf this season.....I pray that this does not happen but it will really test the prepration/response of the Government and the powers that be....If they blow it again (like Katrina) then I will have some serious reservations about where my tax dollars are going....
From the 8:05 am discussion:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 201033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED FROM 21N40W 15N44W 7N46W MOVING W 15-20
KT. BROAD WAVE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA
FROM 38N-50N. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN HAS BEGUN TO SPLIT WITH THE N
PORTION MOVING SLOWER NW THAN THE S PORTION MOVING W. WAVE IS
ALONG 67W/68W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THE N PORTION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEE BELOW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 66W-71W.

and .. .

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS THIS MORNING THAT WAS THE N PORTION OF
THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NEAR 25N63W. THIS BROAD AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN
69W-65W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE RAINS HAVE
NOT BEGUN IN ERNEST OVER PUERTO RICO AS OF YET BUT WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE ISLAND LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST OFF THE E COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ACROSS
NE FLORIDA AND EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 76W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM ALONG
THE E US COAST N OF 30N. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 76W BUT IS ONLY
PRODUCING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE NW ATLC NEAR 26N67W
COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 63W-73W WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N64W TO 26N66W. THE UPPER LOW IS BEING
OVERRUN BY THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE S AND IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE N AWAY FROM THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE TO 24N63W. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 26N59W
ENHANCING THE HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N50W COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N FROM
40W-56W WITH A VERY NARROW UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N67W ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 46W-66W. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA OVER THE E ATLC E OF 37W. THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS LESS DENSE THAN YESTERDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION TO
OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
WALLACE

I would pay attention to the comment on the decreasing density of the dust . . .

Also, does anyone think the Twave between 40/50 W has a chance for development once it gets closer to the Caribbean?
Eye out to sea
New wave emerging off the coast of Africa today.
It should dissipate when it hits the cooler waters, but we are coming up to Cape Verde Season.
1006. IKE
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 6:23 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Hey Ike (in Bonifay for the last two days); I'm certainly not as good, or as hardcore, as many of our regulars (Drak/Nash/Taz, etc.), but, given the pending BH set-up, and the very warm waters in the GOM, I have a "gut" feeling that we, unfortunately, are going to see a major cane hit somewhere in the Gulf this season.....I pray that this does not happen but it will really test the prepration/response of the Government and the powers that be....If they blow it again (like Katrina) then I will have some serious reservations about where my tax dollars are going....


Wasting millions of dollars transporting ice around the country for 2 years. Having to melt the ice because it could be contaminated. $13 million tax dollars to melt the ice.

I love the USA...but my faith in the government is at an all-time low.

I agree...it could be a dangerous set-up this hurricane season along the GOM.

Bonifay....nice area......
1007. IKE
"THE N PORTION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.".....

Say what? No chance.
wannabe,

I have a feeling you already have some reservations about the future location of your tax dollars [smile].

I think the current government is still too focused on the war in Iraq, with an "eggs in one basket" mentality. I agree homeland security should involve protection from terrorist threats, but it should also consider other potential threats to the homeland, such as natural disaster and epidemic disease.
Hopefully, as they have boasted although who really knows, they (FEMA) have diverted some funds (which are tight because of the Iraq situation) into warehousing supplies around Hurricane prone areas in the US for the "rapid response" they are supposed to engage in the event of such a natural disaster.....We shall see (as we all know, the real Government heros of Katrina were the Coast Guard...They get my vote any day and God Bless Them)....
Baha...We were "thinking/typing" the same thing at the same time!
The war is a joke.
All this money to some war, that our "president" wants. Yesterday on Keith Obermann, he called for Bush to resign.
Next we are probably going to have a war with Iran and Pakistan.

But on weather, it looks like our wave took a toll from the ULL.
Dear Colleagues: Good Morning Everybody. The tropical wave in the eastern caribbean will not affect Puerto Rico nor the Hispaniola islands. I expect No rain today (unless the atm.unstability causes some minor afternoon showers). You can see the wave is moving north, with a northest component in the northern portion. I think NHC should sheck their recent discussion/outlook in this respect.
Two years ago, I was furious, right after Katrina, that they didn't immediately withdraw some troops from Iraq and divert them to assist with that situation....Wishful thinking; thanks Guys for letting me vent this morning, but, I suppose we should get back to the weather............
Hello
Rofl!! Look as this link from WU.. what does the UKMET have against Hawaii??
Link

Cracked me up.
Good morning,
With my old eyes, the TWDAT discussion just posted, in ALL CAPS as usual is as hard to read as "some" of the run-on-no-punctuation-posts here. I have broken portions of the TWDAT which appear to me to be relevant to the "blob" East of PR.

Does this below seem a reasonable way to divide up the TWDAT to help with readability?
(and thus help me understand what the NHC is saying)
CRS


BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 17N64W
COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W
AND EXTENDS INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC.

THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS THIS MORNING
THAT WAS THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
AND IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NEAR 25N63W.

THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
16N-23N BETWEEN 69W-65W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE RAINS HAVE NOT BEGUN IN ERNEST OVER PUERTO RICO AS OF YET
BUT WILL BE MOVING OVER THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

...

AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE NW ATLC NEAR
26N67W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 63W-73W
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
31N64W TO 26N66W.

THE UPPER LOW IS BEING OVERRUN BY THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE S
AND IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N AWAY FROM
THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 24N63W.

THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE
ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 26N59W
ENHANCING THE HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.

A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N50W
COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N FROM 40W-56W

WITH A VERY NARROW UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N67W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 46W-66W.
1021. guygee
Posted By: IKE at 11:15 AM GMT on July 20, 2007.
With FEMA....IGNORING contaminated trailers...people sick...dying...the last thing this country needs is another major hurricane.

Hear hear IKE, well-spoken and very true. Even a large and strong CAT1/CAT2 landfall in recently stricken areas of the Gulf Coast and Florida will have a strong negative effect on the economy. Here in FL the mortgage bubble is bursting, good 'ole boy developers are going under, people are losing private insurance and having to resort to expensive state insurance. I've never seen so many houses for sale in my little town. In FL the legislature is passing laws to drastically reduce taxes on homes, and interfering with the ability of cities and towns to collect their own taxes. The crisis is partly due to the wildly inflated assessments on home values here and relief is needed, but public services in many cities will be cut below the level needed to maintain an acceptable level of even the most basic services such as police, firemen, water purification and waste disposal. I also have not seen any mosquito control units out this summer in my area, usually a very common sight. Meanwhile the government daudles on the real need for insurance reform.

It is not just the damage that would be caused by another land-falling hurricane in FL, but also the negative perception of potential investors that will exacerbate the tailspin.

I know the situation is even more dire on the central Gulf coast.

We all need to hope and pray there will be no landfalling hurricanes this year.

Sorry folks for perhaps getting off-topic, but while a storm may pass in a relatively few hours, the effects last for years afterwards.



MsB,

LOL
I see what u mean . . .

Must think Cosme needs a tropical vacation . . .
4.2 earthquake near San Fran Link
I give a 90% chance for 97L. Any guesses?
there is no circulation can not develop with out one take a look

Link
It is not just the damage that would be caused by another land-falling hurricane in FL, but also the negative perception of potential investors that will exacerbate the tailspin.
Right On Guygee; We are at the "tipping point" in Florida, and, another one or two serious storms here will be a major disaster for the entire State (As for good old boy developers, as you referring to people like "St. Joe?.....They have downsized tremendously over the last two years and very few are willing to invest in coastal properties...........I say, we need to create more parks and recreational areas along the Gulf Coast (reclaim Mother Nature) so that regular folk can vacation there (not live there in permanent homes); thus, the impact of the occasional storm is not as devastating on local economies/people....Eco Tourism...
Posted By: Bobbyweather at 8:09 AM EDT on July 20, 2007.
I give a 90% chance for 97L. Any guesses?


which wave are you referring to? certainly not the one in the Carribean.
Hehe, that very well may be Baha. That kinda laugh is just what I needed this morning!

Thanks UKMET for making my Friday Morning worth it. =)
Posted By: IKE at 11:15 AM GMT on July 20, 2007.
With FEMA....IGNORING contaminated trailers...people sick...dying...the last thing this country needs is another major hurricane.

Hear hear IKE, well-spoken and very true. Even a large and strong CAT1/CAT2 landfall in recently stricken areas of the Gulf Coast and Florida will have a strong negative effect on the economy. Here in FL the mortgage bubble is bursting, good 'ole boy developers are going under, people are losing private insurance and having to resort to expensive state insurance. I've never seen so many houses for sale in my little town. In FL the legislature is passing laws to drastically reduce taxes on homes, and interfering with the ability of cities and towns to collect their own taxes. The crisis is partly due to the wildly inflated assessments on home values here and relief is needed, but public services in many cities will be cut below the level needed to maintain an acceptable level of even the most basic services such as police, firemen, water purification and waste disposal. I also have not seen any mosquito control units out this summer in my area, usually a very common sight. Meanwhile the government daudles on the real need for insurance reform.

It is not just the damage that would be caused by another land-falling hurricane in FL, but also the negative perception of potential investors that will exacerbate the tailspin.

I know the situation is even more dire on the central Gulf coast.

We all need to hope and pray there will be no landfalling hurricanes this year.

Sorry folks for perhaps getting off-topic, but while a storm may pass in a relatively few hours, the effects last for years afterwards.


one of the best posts I've read so far.
guygee wrote:

Meanwhile the government daudles on the real need for insurance reform.


I think it's more a matter of how to reform without offending the "good-ole boy" insurance companies, some of whom are legislators' biggest supporters.

I'm also thinking about the aftermath of the 1928? (or was it 1926?) hurricane on the Miami area. An article in the Sun-Sentinel describes it as plunging Miami into the Great Depression earlier than the rest of the country. I'm hoping the "traditional" residents of FL will be able to weather the insurance storms as well as the hurricanes. Also, I think FL homeowners should consider some kind of long-term emergency savings plan - not insurance - which can only be accessed in the event of a catastrophic event affecting the home. Maybe as part of a mortgage plan? That way the money is there when you need it and is not subject to the whims of some shark of an insurance adjuster whose bottom line is company profit.

I wish there was something like that here . . .
1031. JeffM
Posted By: IKE at 11:15 AM GMT on July 20, 2007.
With FEMA....IGNORING contaminated trailers...people sick...dying...the last thing this country needs is another major hurricane.

Our government at work...doing their best for their own people. Pitiful.........

Wow! I didn't know it was the governements responsibility to take care of me if I lost my house to a hurricane. What the hell do you think people have insurance for? Perhaps we should just ditch the trailers and build everyone down there a nice mansion to live in. And while were at it, why not put a few cars in the garage for them also.

Please tell me why the Gov is responsible for providing the billions and billions of dollars spent on Katrina victims?
Please tell me why the Gov is responsible for providing the billions and billions of dollars spent on Katrina victims?

Because it is a natural disaster, and that is why we have FEMA.
Please do not go there; most Americans (including a large number of older/retired folks) cannot readily afford high insurance prices; One of the primary goals of any Government should be to protect the weak and vulnerable......
1034. IKE
"Wow! I didn't know it was the governements responsibility to take care of me if I lost my house to a hurricane."........

It's their responsibility to inform you if there are problems...possibly serious medical problems...from the FEMA trailers and they knew about it and ignored it. They had a man on TV last night that they were interviewing that lost his wife from one of those FEMA trailers.
Any wave should be fine.
This morning's paper says State Farm is cutting 50,000 policies in "high risk coastal areas" within two miles of the ocean.
That they're allowed to do that after collecting on policies for decades is criminal.
Re: The Caribbean Disturbance, then is the north part what one model said could shoot north to Maine? I was wrong; I thought the south part would bear watching.
1037. emagirl
good morning everyone.......as usual i am behind on what is going on.........we have 97L?? do yall think it is going to develop and if so where might it be going??? just trying to catch up
BahaHurican
...some kind of long-term emergency savings plan - not insurance - which can only be accessed in the event of a catastrophic event affecting the home. Maybe as part of a mortgage plan? That way the money is there when you need it and is not subject to the whims of some shark of an insurance adjuster whose bottom line is company profit.


Hello neighbor,
hmmmmmm, you trust mortgage bankers instead of insurance companies.....
I think they both would keep YOUR funds in one of our "well regulated and secure" offshore banks.... and "da money jus not be der" after the storm..... imho
CRS
we need to create more parks and recreational areas along the Gulf Coast (reclaim Mother Nature) so that regular folk can vacation there (not live there in permanent homes); thus, the impact of the occasional storm is not as devastating on local economies/people....Eco Tourism...

One of the reasons why there was so much available coastline when "american" style tourism came to the Bahamas was that traditionally Bahamians would not build houses within 300 yards of the shoreline. If you visit settlements (what we call the villages and small towns here) in the Family Islands even today, you will notice that most houses have huge back yards that face the shoreline. This is because the old people learned - likely from experience - that to build close to the shore was to suffer disaster when a storm came through. In fact, where possible, people often looked for a ridge of some kind, even if only 10 feet high, to build on. Certainly there was no filling in of swamplands and ponds along the shoreline as seen today. If a major makes a direct hit on New Providence now, there are literally hundreds of homes that are likely to be completly flooded by surge and even washed out to sea because of their location. Just about the only thing likely to save much of the coastal construction is that almost everything is built using concrete block, which is by law required to be steel reinforced.

I know quite a few of the larger Midwestern cities have made flood plains along rivers into parks and public areas; they realized it's much easier to restore a park than a community of homes. Certainly a similar approach to shorelines - i. e. making them available to tourists but keeping permanent dwellings out of the danger zone - would be of long-term benefit to Florida
1040. IKE
There's no 97L emagirl...the moisture in the eastern Caribbean turned to the north and should get sheared to death shortly by twin ULL's.
good morning. iknow this not supposed to be a political blog lol but this constant bashing of our gov gets a little tiresome. do any of you posting this agov bashing per katrina live in south ms?also as i have said many times here in s/ms we bore the brunt of this storm from its affects and have done a wonderful job of rebuilding in a short time. we have some great local and state leaders gene taylor trent lott who both lost thier homes and our blessed gov haley barbour.the la problem is basically from inept engineering and horrible local and state leadership nagin and blanco for example.as far as the war is concerned my father is 82 and he and several of his friends spent thier time of youth and i assume most of you are young vacationing in normandy sicily and berlin. people did not bash the gov but they did sacrifice for the greater good. thats why they are known as the greatest generation. while we now in these generations sit in our comfy complaining about everything and the only one sacrificing is our military.and if the cigar administration would have done something when they had a clear oppurtunity 9/11 could have been avoided. the gov is far from perfect but this is still the greatest country in the world and god has deeply blessed us do we appreciate i think not by what i here and read maybe this is a liberal forum and all liberal supporters? i dont know but me personally if thier is a war and our people are involved i will support them in any way annd keep my negativity to my self. remember the only reason you can complain and bash openly is bbecause of all the men who died for freedom. and one last tibit one great liberal said ask not what your country can do for you ask what you can do for your country imho god bless
1042. guygee
BahaHurican - You got that exactly right. We won't see significant insurance reform because political contributions from any corporations is a legal form of bribery in this country, and insurance companies have more money than banks.
The Supremes recently affirmed that money is speech, and corporations are people (only they are much larger, can be in many countries at once, and are virtually immortal).

My family did get our insurance company to renew out policy this year (although at a higher price), but I suspect it was only because I did not make any claims after the damage to my home caused by Frances.

Ironically this is a simple rule that I suspect any honest insurance adjusters on this site will verify: if you don't make claims you are much less likely to be "dropped". You can pay, but don't try to collect.

Right now, we are living mostly on savings and my wife's income, as I am ill and we have no medical insurance...I only wish we could save for that stormy day. Even being here on the internet is a luxury I really can't afford anymore.
I lost everything to Hurricane Charley, but I was prepared as much as I could be. I didn't wait for the government to come down and bail me out. You see hurricanes hit Florida all the time. You don't see this state crying out to FEMA each and every time. Mississippi and Alabama even do a good job before and after a storm. Louisiana's problem is its government's lack of preparation. We've done enough for the city of N.O. It was a lost cause before the storm, and certainly one after.
Link

It's starting to look like toast...
Please, can you take the Bush bashing & Dem whacking to another site?
1047. IKE
"Ironically this is a simple rule that I suspect any honest insurance adjusters on this site will verify: if you don't make claims you are much less likely to be "dropped". You can pay, but don't try to collect."......

Exactly...I was told about 10-11 years ago when I bought my house that exact same thing. Don't have a claim...a major claim...if you do, they'll drop you.
JeffM
Please tell me why the Gov is responsible for providing the billions and billions of dollars spent on Katrina victims?


Jeff, (& WPBHurricane05)
Katrina was NOT a "natural disaster" it was a failure of Government leadership and Government engineering, exposed by a natural and predicted event.
imho
CRS
Saint; Do not disagree with you one bit (on the political issues); I think that one of the main points we are making is that fact that a recurring natural disaster (like Hurricane Season) is a type of "nature's war" and that our Government (and Great country) needs to improve on how it deals with the far reaching effects of such regular calmities....
1050. IKE
Posted By: CaicosRetiredSailor at 7:41 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
JeffM
Please tell me why the Gov is responsible for providing the billions and billions of dollars spent on Katrina victims?

Jeff, (& WPBHurricane05)
Katrina was NOT a "natural disaster" it was a failure of Government leadership and Government engineering, exposed by a natural and predicted event.
imho
CRS


And the problem still exists today.
I think the worst part of this type of "insurance" is that you can't get your money back.

New York City is in no way prepared for a hurricane strike.
A weather question: What will happen when the Carribbean disturbance gets caught between those two spinning things to the north of it? The one to the east appears larger than the westerly one, too and maybe pushing the westerly one further west...Any ideas?
1054. nash28
Must be dead this morning judging by the recent blog commentary....
I know the only reason I made it through Hurricane Charley is the fact that I had prepared financially for years. I had a "Hurricane Fund" where I set aside money just like I did my 401k. Each month I'd put money into this fund.

I do guarantee one thing, if a major hurricane hits Florida, many people will leave the state further hurting the home market. I know if we get hit again I'm out of here.
amen charley 04 amen la and no constantly reelect inepts the focus should be on state and local leaders.a great media personality who had a nightly talk show when he had a lot of goofy callers would say he knew how la kept reelecting goofy politicians lol its funny on this blog you constantly here people bashing conservatives but in the last 2 elections not one southern state voted democratic lol. fla was the only close one excluding the panhandle which is mostly conserative thats curious to me
Actually, Charley, a major hit could help the stagnant home market by creating a demand for housing by people working on rebuilding. Also, those with homes destroyed would be looking for someplace else to live.
1060. guygee
charley04survivor - I admire your independent spirit. But what about the old, the young, the infirm...those already at the edge. What do they do when their roof comes off, when that post-storm subsidence with that awful heat settles in and there is little food or water?

I would like to think that everyone in the community would chip in and help, but from what I heard from people post-Andrew it sounded more like dog-eat-dog chaos.
1061. Drakoen
hello. Everyone it seems that wave is dead. back to blob watching lol.
Well SAINTHURRIFAN, I didn't vote for him. Most of South Florida is liberal. I can go on how Bush cheated in the 2000 election but this isn't the blog for it.
Nash, what do you think is going to happen to the Caribbean disturbance? (There's a water vapor link above.)
1064. IKE
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:50 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
hello. Everyone it seems that wave is dead. back to blob watching lol.


Yup....that's one thing no one can predict with accuracy...the ULL's and how they'll effect storms .

2006 was the year of the ULL's in the Atlantic.
1065. NCboy
I usually dont comment but this is getting rediculous...

Bush's war?...does he not have to get congress's approval? how many senators and representatives voted for this? durn near all of them, yeah a few didnt, but the senators that did and now say this is an illegal war are backstabbing this country...along with the myrmidons that follow them...
Too many whiners on this blog
guygee, those are the people that have the government to "take care of them" I guess.
1068. JeffM
Good lord! The insurance knowledge on here is at a 3rd grade level. I hope some of you do not own a home.
1069. emagirl
just to look for opinions... any on when a storm may form......
1070. Drakoen
interesting wave of Africa.
Off to Work, but, Yall Have a nice weekend and enjoy the calm tropics........
Agreed MahFL.



there is a 1009mb low with it

1078. emagirl
could we please talk about weather and not politics........please
1083. gthsii
...removed to stay on topic.
1084. emagirl
thanks JP
Michael, what do you mean by that?
1087. Drakoen
can we stop talking about politics in the weather blog...
As I suspected it looks like the ULL is gonna snack the energy off that Antillies wave.
july was a month of SAL and high wind shear. will we see chantal before end of month. carib wave is virtually dead. conditions for cyclogenisis should increase in the next few days
1093. Drakoen
Jp the SST by the nearest buoy is 80.1 F.
how is the shear and SAL looking out there?

NHC said SAL is weakening, shear kind of strong.
Please aggie17, some people are already over heated.
1100. Drakoen
yea it is kind of strong but it decreases as the wave moves towards the west.
1102. Drakoen
please do not start a political discussion with this post:

you guys were talking about politics and the war in Iraq while I have been working on my website and I thought it was funny that I just added the city Bagdad, FL to the database just thought it was funny
What killed our blob? Was it the ULL to the North?
1106. Drakoen
Posted By: charley04survivor at 1:13 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

What killed our blob? Was it the ULL to the North?


Yes.
Poof!
All this political talking has given me a headache......
1114. Murko
Posted By: Chicklit at 1:18 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.
Poof!


Who you calling a poof? lol ;-)
1115. Drakoen
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:18 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

actually it is in a way related, all the money Bush is pouring into the war could be used to fund much needed programs here in the US

and included in that is our weather stations

but enough about politics really, anyway back to work, Drakoen keep me updated on the area off of Africa, I think this could be our first significant system this year


Ok.
1116. Drakoen
Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.
What was it like tracking this system in 2004

Link
what are the possibilities of the ULL on the western tip of cuba moving into the GOMEX and initiate something. the area is already moist with low wind shear
1119. Drakoen
stoormfury that would be low. the upper level low would have to sit there and work its way down to the surface.
hear, hear truer words were never spoken!

"charley04survivor at 1:20 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

Miss Bennet, we have a government run insurance in Florida (Citizens Insurance) and believe me, you don't want any part of it."

jo
draken you are right sorry have a nice day and ps send that to masters himself for his post are a little to polictical good day
Ok Drak, Sorry, done venting...

As for my opintion (on weather) I think that African Wave will die when it hits the water fully... too much dryness and the water's still a bit too chilly there. Just look what happened to the one right before it. Poof! in Chicklet's terms. =)
Drakoen
how good is the on line METEO 101 course from psu
1126. Drakoen
Posted By: stoormfury at 1:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

Drakoen
how good is the on line METEO 101 course from psu


lol. psu?
1127. Drakoen
Posted By: MissBennet at 1:27 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

Ok Drak, Sorry, done venting...

As for my opintion (on weather) I think that African Wave will die when it hits the water fully... too much dryness and the water's still a bit too chilly there. Just look what happened to the one right before it. Poof! in Chicklet's terms. =)


Yea. water could be warmer.
it is a course from penn state university.initially a forecasting course
1130. Drakoen
Posted By: stoormfury at 1:38 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

it is a course from penn state university.initially a forecasting course


Why would i know about that? that doesn't have anything to do with my blog...
1131. CJ5
Well that disturbance that was much talked about yesterday disappeared like Houdini! Now on to the next blob lol
i was just seeking advice
1133. Drakoen
Posted By: stoormfury at 1:41 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

i was just seeking advice


oh ok. I don't know anything about PSU met courses. My blog is a compiled list of information...
Good morning, all.

Drakoen, that ULL over Kman, below Cuba is still spinnin' 'round...sort of stationary. Didn't move much in the night, unlike the other one.

Those waters are really hot there. If it stays there, (the wave catches up with it), any chance of this thing working its way to the surface? TIA
1136. Drakoen
No. I don't think that wave will develop. There is 40-50kts of wind shear over the wave. None of the reliable computer models develop the wave.
http://www.flgov.com/shop4insurance/HOCompareRates.htm This is the web site for insurance that's missing now....maybe will be back up soon
1138. IKE
Posted By: Michael at 8:06 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
I mean the high pressure is set up where all tropical development will be forced towards the west.


Then why did this wave turn abruptly to the north? ULL's? That may happen again and again...we'll see.
Posted By: aggie17 at 9:07 AM EDT on July 20, 2007. (hide)
LOL Some of you people need to get a life.


Actually, we DO have a life . . . and it's called . . .

WUNDERBLOGGING!!!!!
1140. IKE
Posted By: mgreen91 at 8:08 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 7:41 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.

"Ironically this is a simple rule that I suspect any honest insurance adjusters on this site will verify: if you don't make claims you are much less likely to be "dropped". You can pay, but don't try to collect."......

Exactly...I was told about 10-11 years ago when I bought my house that exact same thing. Don't have a claim...a major claim...if you do, they'll drop you.

Im a CAT adjuster for a major insurance company, your insurance company will not drop you; your premiums will go up


I was told that by the secretary of the insurance agency I have it with.
1141. IKE
Posted By: MissBennet at 8:19 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 12:41 PM GMT on July 20, 2007.

"Ironically this is a simple rule that I suspect any honest insurance adjusters on this site will verify: if you don't make claims you are much less likely to be "dropped". You can pay, but don't try to collect."......

Exactly...I was told about 10-11 years ago when I bought my house that exact same thing. Don't have a claim...a major claim...if you do, they'll drop you.

Then what's the point of having insurance?! I hate insurance companies just for this reason. It doesn't only happen with home insurance but health as well.

Example: I've been going through a bunch of tests for a stomach probelm I have. Two weeks ago I get a letter from my insurance company (whom I've had for over a year) telling me that they are investigating me for having a prior condition, (Which I didn't) and they're refusing to pay claims until the investigation is over! Its a racket!


That's the way it normally is in major medical insurance. I know....I write it!

Actually I tried to avoid major meds and write the senior(age 65+) market.
In Mississippi, insurance doesn't have to have a reason to drop you. If they don't like you, or the color socks you're wearing...doesn't matter. There is no recourse.
1144. IKE
Posted By: Drakoen at 8:21 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.


We know that...there's very little going on in the tropical Atlantic or anywhere for that matter.
Posted By: mgreen91 at 9:08 AM EDT on July 20, 2007.


Im a CAT adjuster for a major insurance company, your insurance company will not drop you; your premiums will go up.

So instead of THEM dropping YOU, you are forced to cancel your policy.

So people still end up without insurance. I think in the long term a savings plan for hurricane preparation is more effective. Even saving only a few dollars a month out of what you have is better than nothing. If state governments want to "get in on it", they can match or subsidise the savings of the lowest income homeowners. From my perspective, that kind of long-term planning makes more sense. Like social security, only for your house :o).
Posted By: mgreen91 at 8:08 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 7:41 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.

"Ironically this is a simple rule that I suspect any honest insurance adjusters on this site will verify: if you don't make claims you are much less likely to be "dropped". You can pay, but don't try to collect."......

Exactly...I was told about 10-11 years ago when I bought my house that exact same thing. Don't have a claim...a major claim...if you do, they'll drop you.

Im a CAT adjuster for a major insurance company, your insurance company will not drop you; your premiums will go up


I was told that by the secretary of the insurance agency I have it with.

A secretary is not an insurance professional.
1147. IKE
Posted By: mgreen91 at 8:59 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Posted By: mgreen91 at 8:08 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 7:41 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.

"Ironically this is a simple rule that I suspect any honest insurance adjusters on this site will verify: if you don't make claims you are much less likely to be "dropped". You can pay, but don't try to collect."......

Exactly...I was told about 10-11 years ago when I bought my house that exact same thing. Don't have a claim...a major claim...if you do, they'll drop you.

Im a CAT adjuster for a major insurance company, your insurance company will not drop you; your premiums will go up


I was told that by the secretary of the insurance agency I have it with.

A secretary is not an insurance professional.


I never said she was...then again, I never said she wasn't. You're assuming she isn't licensed....I don't know. She could be....but, that's what she told me.
1149. emagirl
i agree nash
1150. CJ5
The bottom line is that everyone who lives in an area that is prone to Hurricanes must accept the responsibility. While I think my tax dollars should offer some limited assistance, it is not my responsibility to make sure people are made whole everytime they get into trouble. It doesn't matter if it is coastal or MS flood plain, people continue to rebuild in the same spots and then complain when another disaster strikes. Personal responsibility.
"Miss Bennet, we have a government run insurance in Florida (Citizens Insurance) and believe me, you don't want any part of it."

I would like to add that as a Florida Resident with a different Insurance Provider I still pay a surcharge for Citizens Insurance. Why should I have to pay to off-set some one else's cost, mainly the government. This would be the same for any government run business. And if you think they are not out to make money you are mistaken. I work for a State agency that provides services and plans for surplus money coming from those services.
Two things about insurance coverage that struck me from this discussion, and then I'm out:

1. Misinformation can be a killer. If u don't understand the "rules" of insurance coverage or know how to get the best coverage for your insurance dollars, you can be a BIG loser, short and long-term.

2. If insurance companies are not properly regulated by governmental agencies i.e. by law, it seems really easy for them to go from "protectors" to extortionists. YMMV

Have a good day, all. I'm not expecting any rain from the Twave / ULL today; looks like that dance will play out north of Puerto Rico. I'll check in when I get back to see if anything of interest has taken place . . .

Have a great day, ya'll!
Same here re the insurance. If you rates have gone up significantly, you need to call your present broker and ask how you can cancel your existing policy because of the increase. They will then shop for a new quote for you. Let them earn your business.
Posted By: mgreen91 at 9:08 AM EDT on July 20, 2007.


Im a CAT adjuster for a major insurance company, your insurance company will not drop you; your premiums will go up.

So instead of THEM dropping YOU, you are forced to cancel your policy.

So people still end up without insurance. I think in the long term a savings plan for hurricane preparation is more effective. Even saving only a few dollars a month out of what you have is better than nothing. If state governments want to "get in on it", they can match or subsidise the savings of the lowest income homeowners. From my perspective, that kind of long-term planning makes more sense. Like social security, only for your house :o).

Be as it may, people who live in hurricane prone area more then likely to file a homeowners claim every year. I live in Chicago; I never had to file a claim with my insurance carrier. If a person lives in Miami FL pay $1200 a month for a 2000 sq foot home thats valued at $300,000.00 and a hurricane happens how an insurance company makes money?
1156. 900MB
Area South of Cuba could use some watching, fairly persistant, fairly stationary, has spin and some convection. Over Very warm waters and there is a shear path of least resistance (5-10kts)straight up the Gulf of Mexico towards La.. Convection would have to pick up on the South and East sides of the disturbance. If it developed, steering paths are towards the Yucatan and Western Gulf. I would suggest that it would be slightly East of that path and could have a clear shot through the Channel since storms tend to move where there is less resistance. Of course, that's only if it perks up and turns into something.
I just dumped over 4$grand into insurance. Continue.
NEW BLOG
Posted By: CJ5 at 9:04 AM CDT on July 20, 2007.

The bottom line is that everyone who lives in an area that is prone to Hurricanes must accept the responsibility. While I think my tax dollars should offer some limited assistance, it is not my responsibility to make sure people are made whole everytime they get into trouble. It doesn't matter if it is coastal or MS flood plain, people continue to rebuild in the same spots and then complain when another disaster strikes. Personal responsibility.
I agree!!
Personally, I think insurance companies should reward those of us that actually take the time to prepare their homes for a storm. You would not believe the amount of people who just have the "oh well I have insurance" attitude. I lock my home down like a fortress when a storm is on the way.