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New NHC Director to be announced today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:21 PM GMT on December 06, 2006

The new director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be named today during a press conference scheduled to begin at 2:30pm EST. Max Mayfield, 58, NHC director since 2000, is stepping down in January. The difficult hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 wore him out, he said, and he wanted to retire to spend more time with his family. Who can blame him? Director of NHC is a very demanding job even in the off season--Max stated that he spent about four months traveling during December through May attending various conferences and hurricane awareness functions. I'll be very sorry to see Max go--his combination of forecasting skills, ease of communication with the public, and dedication to his work made him a great NHC director.


Max Mayfield, retiring National Hurricane Center director. Image credit: NOAA.

Most of the senior hurricane specialists at NHC in line to take over from Max declined to apply for the job, and it appears that first the first time ever, someone from outside the NHC or NOAA's Hurricane Research Division will get the job. Speculation currently centers on Bill Proenza, 62, director of the National Weather Service's Southern Region, which includes Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Wunderblogger Margie Kieper will be dialing into today's press conference, and plans to post a blog shortly after 3pm EST announcing the new NHC director in her View From the Surface blog. Tune in then!

Typhoon Durian is no more
The violent rampage of Typhoon Durian has finally come to end. Durian made landfall yesterday in Thailand's southern province of Chumphon as a tropical depression, causing heavy rain but no significant damage or injuries. Durian dissipated while making landfall, and will trouble the world no longer. The typhoon killed 61 people in its sweep past southern Vietnam, mostly due to high winds that collapsed buildings. Durian destroyed or damaged over 120,000 homes in Vietnam, and sank 850 fishing boats. The toll in the Philippines stands at 1266 dead or missing, the fourth highest toll ever recorded from a typhoon there. Durian destroyed 76,000 homes and damaged 154,000, and the estimated $600 million in damage was the highest ever for a Philippines typhoon.


Figure 2. Final rainfall estimates from NASA's TRMM satellite for Typhoon Durian. 250 mm = about 10 inches of rain.

Next blog
Friday, I'll discuss Dr. Bill Gray's first forecast for the 2007 hurricane season, which is scheduled to be released late in the morning Friday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Let's see...Dr. Jeff Masters...National Hurricane Center Director - that sounds pretty good!
Well, I'm all ready down here in Miami for the press conference on the new NHC director. I was a fan of both Max Mayfield and Dr. Bob Sheets of years past. Though Proenza is qualified for the job, I wouldn't mind seeing Rappaport succeeding Mayfield.
Max Mayfield enjoying some Down time in retirement...2
Does he have a permit for that?
Is that a Pompano Patrapp?

JTWC have issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for 93W. If this pans out it could be serious trouble for the Philippines. Here's their latest graphic:
TCFA
Good afternoon,

Here is the ENSO update for December 6.

Summary: El Nio maturing

El Nio conditions continue to dominate the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Ocean surface temperatures have continued to warm, and are now more than 1C above average right across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Strongest recent warming has occurred in areas near the dateline, supported by slightly weaker than average Trade Winds and above normal cloudiness in this region. Equatorial Pacific subsurface temperatures also remain warm. The 2006/07 El Nio is entering its mature phase, when the Pacific ocean temperatures, winds and cloud patterns reinforce each other. Computer model guidance continues to suggest that Pacific Ocean temperatures, and hence the El Nio, may peak around January or February 2007. This timing would be consistent with the breakdown of past El Nio events.

ENSO UPDATE


uh oh

we may have more hurricane for the 2007 hurricane season


not good
so dos this mean El Nio cold be gone be for the 2007 hurricane season gets her?
Dvorak intensity is up to 2 now:
224
TPPN10 PGTW 061506

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF GUAM

B. 06/1430Z

C. 8.9N/7

D. 140.3E/8

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS (06/1430Z)

G. IR/EIR LLCC

70/PBO ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
2.0. DBO DT. PT AND MET AGREE. OFF-HOUR DVORAK.

DELEO

As ever I will be keeping an extremely close eye on this!
Yes TAZ thats a possibility but for now everything is in a monitering stage until next season.Its going to interesting for sure to see how all this plays out in the coming months.Adrian
hurricane23 uh oh not good
Invest 93W in the western pacific is looking better on satelitte imagery and overall banding features have improved.JTWC has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on this disturbance so we'll see what happens.
hurricane23 its 93W not 93L
how do you get the long range gfs model run
HEY HURRICANE 23 HOW DO YOU GET THE LONG RANGE GFS MODEL RUN
dylan3112 visit my website and in the navagation bar click on models and their you will find alot of model sites.

ADRIAN'S WEATHER
Vietnam is up to 66 dead. 100's hurt

The government also announced every family who lost their house would receive 300 dollars and those who lost their roof would get 120 dollars.


93W looks like it will be a depression anytime.
Long-range GFS (select a region and then select the most recent run).
MisterPerfect~ what's going on at that conference, they drawing this out?
sky it looks like a TD right now may be a low TS with 40 mph winds
Gonna check right now Sky..
Nothing yet...
Bill Proenza named director of National Hurricane CenterBy MARTIN MERZER
mmerzer@MiamiHerald.com
It's official: Veteran weather service administrator Bill Proenza will become director of the National Hurricane Center when Max Mayfield retires next month.

''I certainly look forward to working with the outstanding National Weather Service teams at the National Hurricane Center and the coastal weather forecast offices across our nation,'' said Proenza, 62, who currently serves as director of the Southern region of the National Weather Service, based in Fort Worth, Texas.

The Miami Herald reported Tuesday that Proenza was the leading candidate. The official announcement came this afternoon during a news conference in Washington.

''Although Bill has big shoes to fill as America's calm and trusted voice in the eye of the storm, his experience and his ties to the emergency management community will be a national asset in preparing our coastlines from tropical weather threats,'' said Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez.

Mayfield, 58, announced in August that he would retire on Jan. 3, ending a six-year reign at the prominent forecasting center in West Miami-Dade County.

In the past, most center directors were promoted from within the ranks of hurricane forecasters or researchers, but Proenza's selection indicates that officials at NOAA headquarters in Washington sought someone within their management comfort zone.

Though Proenza served during the early 1960s as an intern at the hurricane center and flew aboard hurricane hunter missions, he spent much of his recent career as a NOAA administrator.

In his current position, Proenza manages nearly 1,000 forecasters and other employees in 32 offices in Florida and nine other states.

Those who have worked with and for Proenza praised his selection.

They said he knows how to operate within the NOAA bureaucracy, has close contacts with meteorologists and emergency managers throughout the U.S. hurricane zone and excels at public relations, a key job requirement at the hurricane center.

A graduate of Florida State University, Proenza is fluent in Spanish and has urged his meteorologists to provide bilingual forecasts.

''I think that Bill's biggest strength is his ability to communicate,'' said Rusty Pfost, who runs the National Weather Service's South Florida office and has reported directly to Proenza for the past eight years.

''He's one of the best communicators that I have had the privilege to work with,'' Pfost said. ``He brings a real strength in that regard.''


Navy has 20kts, 1004mb.

Not the best quickscat ever
I would have chosen Rick knabb or Stacy stewart...2 great minds.
I liked Ed Rappaport
Ed Rappaport said no thanks to the job offer as he said he wants to spent more time with family.
Thanks MisterPerfect, I don't see it anywhere else yet:)
I liked Ed too, but declined is declined. Hope he never regrets it.
Here's Bill Proenza the new director of the NHC.



CLICK HERE for more.

The remnant of Durian is subject to a tropical cyclone formation alert in the Andaman Sea, with a fair probability of regeneration.
NASA telescope sees black hole gulping remote star By Will Dunham
Tue Dec 5, 7:18 PM ET



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A giant black hole displaying horrifying table manners has been caught in the act of guzzling a star in a galaxy 4 billion light-years away, scientists using an orbiting NASA telescope said on Tuesday.

ADVERTISEMENT

For the past two years, scientists have monitored the dramatic events as the star, residing in a galaxy in the Bootes constellation, was ripped apart by the black hole.

Scientists used NASA's Galaxy Evolution Explorer, an orbiting telescope sensitive to two bands of ultraviolet wave lengths, to detect an ultraviolet flare coming from the center of a remote elliptical galaxy.

"This ultraviolet flare was from a star literally being ripped apart and swallowed by the black hole," Suvi Gezari of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena and lead author of the paper describing the findings in Astrophysical Journal Letters, said in an interview.

"This is the first time that we've actually been able to monitor the flare of radiation from such an event in detail. Only once every 10,000 years will a star pass close enough to a (galaxy's) central black hole to be ripped apart and swallowed in this manner," Gezari said.

The scientists hope the findings will give them a better understanding of black holes, objects whose gravity is so powerful even light cannot escape.

It is believed that super-massive black holes are located at the core of every galaxy. For example, Gezari said, the Milky Way galaxy in which our solar system resides has a dormant super-massive black hole at its center.

Scientists said in this case the unfortunate star strayed a bit too close to the black hole deep inside the galaxy, and was mutilated by the force of its gravity. They believe that parts of the star swirled around and then plunged into the black hole, which sent out the bright ultraviolet flare that the satellite detected.

Scientists continue to use the telescope to observe the ultraviolet light as it fades while the black hole snacks on the final table scraps from the devoured star.

"We looked at the galaxy in 2003 and there was no ultraviolet light coming from the galaxy at all," Gezari said. "And then in 2004, we suddenly saw this very bright source."

"The only way to explain such a luminous ultraviolet flare is if the black hole swallowed a star," Gezari said.

Caltech leads the Galaxy Evolution Explorer mission and is responsible for science operations and data analysis, while NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory manages the mission and built the instrument.

The scientists also used data from NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory, the Canada France Hawaii Telescope in Hawaii and the Keck Telescope in Hawaii.

lol

i got it from her

Link
Hmm off Topic but I like this Video and its good music, Very Dramatic!
Link
MISSION UPDATE



Shuttle Discovery Set for ISS Construction Flight
For 2:30 p.m. EST Tuesday November 28:

NASA's space shuttle Discovery is poised to launch towards the International Space Station (ISS) on Dec. 7 to continue assembly of the orbital laboratory.

Commanded by veteran shuttle flyer and NASA astronaut Mark Polansky, Discovery is set to launch its STS-116 mission on Dec. 7 at about 9:36 p.m. EST (0236 Dec. 8 GMT). Joining Polansky on the 12-day spaceflight are pilot William Oefelein and mission specialists Nicholas Patrick, Robert Curbeam, Joan Higginbotham, Sunita Williams and Christer Fuglesang of the European Space Agency.

The seven astronauts are poised to deliver a new truss segment to the ISS and rewire the orbital laboratory's electrical system. Williams will also relieve the Expedition 14 flight engineer Thomas Reiter during the mission, and will join the space station crew for a six-month stay.

NASA's STS-116 mission is expected to cap 2006 as the agency's third shuttle flight of the year and the second dedicated to ISS assembly. The space shuttle Atlantis visited the space station in September to resume orbital construction following the successful STS-121 return to flight mission aboard Discovery in July
This will be cool when it goes up.
Hey also look at 94B not bad could become Deppresion.
any one see my post?
93W is now TD 25W
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:59 PM EST on December 06, 2006. NASA telescope sees black hole..."The only way to explain such a luminous ultraviolet flare is if the black hole swallowed a star,"

That hardly qualifies as proof. It's like cave dwellers explaining lightning: "The spirits must be angry".

I was going to go fishing N of the Cape for the night launch, but I have to work. Maybe they'll wait:

MIKE SCHNEIDER
Associated Press

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - Clouds of concern gathered for Thursday night's liftoff of the space shuttle Discovery as NASA downgraded launch chances to 40 percent due to weather.

"The forecast has trended for the worse right now," said Kathy Winters, shuttle weather officer.

An expected cloud ceiling at 3,000 feet was the biggest obstacle for getting Discovery off the ground at 9:35 p.m. EST Thursday.

NASA won't launch with low clouds because officials want to track it visually and allow enough visibility in case the astronauts need to make a difficult emergency landing at the Kennedy Space Center's runway.

"It's a significant problem for us," Winters said.

The weather wasn't expected to be cooperating at the shuttle's emergency landing sites in Spain and France, either.

The forecast only gets worse for the following two days. Expected crosswinds and isolated showers at Kennedy Space Center reduced the chances of launch to 30 percent on Friday and 40 percent Saturday. The weather was expected to improve at the beginning of next week.
i like maxfields pic of his permit. great fish!! in the spirit of fishing, i wanted to share a couple of pics of a friends and my catch a couple of weeks ago

Link
HEY EVERYBODY I WAS READING THE BLOG A LITTLE EARLIER TO DAY AND SAW SOMEONE WROTE ABOUT THE ENSO EL NONI UPDATE THEY SAY IT MIGHT PEAK AROUND JANUARY FEBRUARY 2007, DOES ANYONE KNOW WHEN EL NINO PEAKED IN THE 1997-98 EL NINO SEASON?
30 knots 1006 hPa

here comes Utor.. =/
LOL @ Floridafisherman

Hopefully 25W doesn't have time to intensify before reaching the Philippines, but it is compact, and apparently has no hindrance. Hope for the best for points beyond.
JTWC Forecast has a typhoon as it reaches the Philippines
WOW ANOTHER TYPHHON FOR THE PHILLIPINES IS THIS INDICATIVE OF EL NINO?
LSU Tropical page...Link
More cold air pouring South Into LouisianaLink
wow either JTWC are mistaken but it is heading west at 15 knots

just three hours ago the JMA posted it was moving west slowly..??
Caneman wishes death and destruction to all Pacific blobs; may the blobs be infested with dry air intrusion and upper level shearing winds.
Posted By: 882MB at 8:31 PM CST on December 06, 2006.

HEY EVERYBODY I WAS READING THE BLOG A LITTLE EARLIER TO DAY AND SAW SOMEONE WROTE ABOUT THE ENSO EL NONI UPDATE THEY SAY IT MIGHT PEAK AROUND JANUARY FEBRUARY 2007,


That was from the BOM (Australia). I use the CPC's data (latest El Nino update here, including comparisons to past El Ninos).
Oh, El Nino is definately affecting the West Pacific, although it is nowhere near the insanity of 1964 or 1997; here are some incredible stats from 1997:

31 total storms
23 typhoons
11 super typhoons
10 Category 5s
4 storms had winds of at least 180 mph
2 stimultaneous storms with 185 mph winds
3 consecutive storms with pressures below 880 mbar
10 typhoon landfalls at Cat 1 or greater.

Makes the Atlantic, even 2005, look pathetic (and this year's WPAC season; that is what happens when a strong El Nino lasts thoughout the entire season, not just the end)...

Normal activity is 27-28 storms, 16-17 typhoons, and 8-9 Cat 3+. Many recent seasons have been below normal (including this year, except for the number of strong storms, which is above normal, which will likely feed the "global warming causes more strong storms" debate).
71. V26R
Anyone know how long the launch window is for the next Shuttle Launch? Heard there are weather concerns now!
Mike
Right as has already been meantioned 93W is now a TD. Here's JMA's latest prognostic reasoning:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.1N 136.6E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=


Rapid intensification, anyone?
Durian looks to be reforming. Almost looks like an eye, or maybe a gap in the convection?
.
TayTay...yes, i think it's possible. That's why i'm scoping out possible intercept positions. Cebu seems like the best place. Will see what happens in the next 12 hours and maybe I'll fly to Phillipines. Early days!
Wow! Thank you for all that information aspiringstat! One question though. Would it be possible to scale the images down so the blog doesn't get so stretched out? Thanks!
Max size for Pics here is 640 x 480,..thanx
Good morning,

CPC says El NINO will be around threw may 2007...

Most of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, including the NCEP Climate forecast System (CFS), indicate that El Nio conditions will peak during the NH winter (December 2006-February 2007), followed by weakening during March-May 2007.

MORE HERE