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New Lake Effect Snowstorm Pounding Buffalo With an Additional 2 - 3 Feet of Snow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:46 PM GMT on November 20, 2014

A new lake effect snowstorm is pummeling snow-weary Buffalo, New York once again, where over a foot of new snow has fallen over regions that received five feet of snow on Tuesday. Once again, a persistent band of heavy snow coming off of the relatively warm waters of Lake Erie has settled over the southern and eastern suburbs of Buffalo, delivering prodigious snows of 3 - 5" per hour. The Buffalo Airport reported a heavy thunderstorm with snow at 4 am Thursday morning, and the band had dumped 10.7" of snow there as of 7 am EST. Buffalo radar shows that snow band then shifted to the south, and had set up about 10 - 20 miles farther south than Tuesday's band, over the southern suburbs of Buffalo. Lancaster, which was paralyzed by 63" of snow on Tuesday, has received another 12" so far today, giving them an astonishing 75" of snow--over six feet--this week. The snow band will move little until Thursday night, allowing up to 2 - 3 feet of snow to fall over some of the same regions that received 4 - 5 feet of snow on Tuesday. Extreme atmospheric instability due to relatively warm waters in the lake and near-record cold temperatures aloft are responsible for the intensity of the storm. Water temperatures are 45 - 54°F over the eastern end of Lake Erie, and were 45°F at the Environment Canada Port Colborne buoy at the east end of Lake Erie on Thursday morning. Temperatures at 5,000 feet altitude (850 mb) were 7°F (-14°C) Thursday morning, resulting in a phenomenal 45°F temperature difference between the surface and air aloft--a huge amount of instability.

Shifting winds will end the snow storm over the Buffalo region by Friday morning. The concerns for the region will shift to flooding this weekend, as a warm air mass with moderate rain moves in. The NWS in Buffalo advised Thursday morning that the combination of at least some rain and major snowmelt will bring the risk for significant flooding to the lake effect areas...both for small streams as well as some of the larger creeks and rivers. This would include the Buffalo area creeks...Cattaraugus Creek…and the creeks that drain the Tug Hill region. In urban sections of South Buffalo ponding/flooding may also occur as the large volume of melt water overloads drainage systems.


Figure 1. A snow canyon from the front door of a home in Orchard Park, New York, after 4+' of snow feel there on November 18, 2014. Image credit: Tanya Weston Muscato.


Figure 2. Buffalo radar at 10:12 am EST November 20, 2014 showed a band of heavy lake effect snow had set up just south of Buffalo, New York.

Most extreme Lake Erie snowstorm on record?
According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Tuesday's snowfall totals near Buffalo may challenge the official 24-hour snowfall record for the state of New York. The State Climate Extremes Committee (SCEC) lists the official record 24-hour snowfall for the state of New York as 49.0” on November 14 - 15, 1900. At least five suburbs of Buffalo on its south and east sides beat this mark on Tuesday, recording 51 - 60" of snow in 24 hours. The champions were was Lancaster and Gardenville, with 60" of snow in 24 hours. It is yet not clear if any of these reports will be worthy of official status, recognized by the SCEC. Mr. Burt notes, though, that the SCEC is rife with errors and probably should not be taken too seriously. Much greater 24-hour totals have been reported from various observers/sources over the years at multiple locations in New York. The greatest unofficial 24-hour total he is aware of is 68” at Adams, NY on Jan. 9, 1976. Also, 77” fell in Montague Township in 24 hours on Jan. 11 - 12, 1997. This value was discounted by the SCEC as a result of a small technicality due to one too many snow board measurements being taken (7 instead of 6). However, the figure itself was accepted as accurate, but not official since the observer made a small error in the timing of his snow accumulation measurements. Note that all of these record 24-hour snowfalls came in Lake Ontario's lake effect snow band, where higher terrain helps lift the air streaming off the lake to extract more snow. In Mr. Burt's words, "So far as Lake Erie events, I think this week's event one will go down as the most extreme on record.


Figure 3. A lake effect snow storm brought 57" of snow to West Seneca, New York on November 18, 2014. When you look at all the snow piled of the roof of this house, you can understand the concern about roof collapses, due to the weight of additional snow falling today, plus rain on top of the snow this weekend. Image credit: Kathryn Prociv.

Buffalo's worst snowstorm: January 1977
This week's storm did not significantly affect the mid through northern portions of metro Buffalo, including downtown, which is typical for a Lake Erie lake effect snowstorm--the heaviest snow falls south of the city. However, back in January 1977, a 5-day blizzard hit all of Western New York, including Buffalo. The combination of blowing snow, wind and Arctic temperatures resulted in hundreds of people being stranded in their cars. Because of constant whiteout conditions and life threatening wind chills, as well as the fact that nobody had cell phones back then to communicate in an emergency, 29 people lost their lives. Many were asphyxiated in their cars or froze to death from exposure.

Mr. Burt documents the history of lake effect snowstorms in his 2013 post, Lake Effect Snow Totals and Historical Perspective.


Video 1. Where's the fire hydrant? A dog attempts to deal with 5' of snow in Lancaster, New York after the lake-effect snow storm of November 18, 2014. Thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for posting this link in my blog comments.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Geaux Sneaux !
thanx doc....from the last blog

I just wanted to mention a privacy issue...it's no big deal to me as if you want it...i'm happy to post my address and phone number...but i know others want to lead a more private life......

someone can take your avatar pic and google search it...so if your avatar pic as an example is the same one as your linkedin avatar...someone would be able to get your personal information from there such as name and workplace information and from there go further
thanks for the update doc now our next trick will be rapid melt get ready for the water its going to be wet
Thanks doc! Praying for them. Their gonna need it.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Being from the South (Baton Rouge) and living in DFW Texas, I cannot even imagine what this is like. Heck a few years ago I had to travel to Minnesota in February, and my wife was laughing at me (born in NY) about not believing snow stayed on the ground all winter. I am used to ice/snow melting in a few days.

Begs a serious question though. How much of that snow will stick around? Saw the note about potential flooding due to melt, but would it all melt?

Down here, I have heard the conversion Being one inch of snow = 1/10 inch of rain.
thanks for the update doc now our next trick will be rapid melt get ready for the water its going to be wet


saw on the news this morning that public officials are saying it will take 5 days to clear all the roads
Just posted in the previous blog. Some pretty nice waves.

Live shot from Erie PA. Main focus of the Lake Effect band is just to their NE.
Lake Effect Snow Warning
Statement as of 9:30 AM EST on November 20, 2014
...Lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 1 am EST Friday...

* locations...Erie...Genesee...and Wyoming counties. This includes the Buffalo Metro area. The band is expected to drift back north over the immediate Buffalo southtowns east to Batavia during the afternoon before moving south again this evening.

* Timing...through overnight tonight.

* Accumulations...storm total accumulations of 2 to 3 feet in the most persistent bands. Greatest accumulations expected from Angola across the Boston Hills to East Aurora and western Wyoming County.

* Winds...west 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph producing blowing and drifting snow.

* Visibilities...near zero at times.

* Impacts...heavy lake effect snow will result in very difficult or nearly impossible travel at times in the heaviest portion of the band. Thunder and lightning will accompany the heaviest snow. If you must travel during the lake effect snow...expect severe winter driving conditions with very low visibility and deep snow cover on roads. Some roads that have been cleared may become impassable again. Do not travel in the most heavily affected areas! Snow loads on buildings may reach critical levels and result in structural failure.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you lose power and plan on running a generator...make sure that the generator is located outdoors and is properly ventilated. Space heaters should also be properly ventilated and used only if they are operating properly. Make sure snow does not block exhausts and fresh air intakes for high efficiency furnaces and water heaters.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.Weather.Gov/Buffalo.

Report snow accumulation to the National Weather Service in Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.Report@noaa.Gov...posting to the NWS Buffalo facebook Page...or tweet...using the hashtag bufwx

Record Report
Statement as of 4:37 am EST on November 20, 2014
...Record daily maximum snowfall set at Buffalo NY...

A record snowfall of 7.6 inches was set at Buffalo NY yesterday. This breaks the old record of 5.8 set in 2000.

Public Information Statement
Statement as of 9:18 am EST on November 20, 2014
**********************24 hour snowfall**********************

Location 24 hour time/date comments snowfall of /inches/ measurement

New York

...Allegany County... Angelica 1.0 700 am 11/20 co-op observer 1 S Wellsville 1.0 500 am 11/20 co-op observer 4 SW West Almond 0.8 800 am 11/20 cocorahs Rushford 0.7 630 am 11/20 co-op observer Alfred 0.6 700 am 11/20 co-op observer

...Cattaraugus County... 5 N Allegany 1.2 700 am 11/20 cocorahs 1 SSW Franklinville 1.0 700 am 11/20 co-op observer 4 SW Allegheny state 1.0 700 am 11/20 co-op observer

...Chautauqua County... 1 WNW Fredonia 5.9 600 am 11/20 cocorahs 4 SSW Ripley 1.3 610 am 11/20 cocorahs 4 ENE Jamestown 0.5 700 am 11/20 co-op observer 3 SSE Frewsburg 0.5 630 am 11/20 cocorahs

...Erie County... 2 NE Boston 13.0 800 am 11/20 cocorahs WSW Hamburg 12.5 700 am 11/20 cocorahs 1 W Colden 12.2 730 am 11/20 co-op observer Lancaster 12.0 700 am 11/20 Emergency Mngr Eden 12.0 700 am 11/20 Emergency Mngr Wales Center 12.0 700 am 11/20 Emergency Mngr Orchard Park 11.0 600 am 11/20 amateur radio 3 NE Cheektowaga 10.7 700 am 11/20 cocorahs NY Buffalo Intl Arpt 10.7 700 am 11/20 ASOS Clarence 10.0 700 am 11/20 Emergency Mngr 2 S Akron 9.0 800 am 11/20 cocorahs 3 ESE Tonawanda 7.0 700 am 11/20 cocorahs 5 NNE Amherst 6.5 800 am 11/20 cocorahs 2 SSW Blasdell 6.0 700 am 11/20 cocorahs ESE Kenmore 4.9 745 am 11/20 cocorahs 3 WSW Elma 4.2 700 am 11/20 cocorahs 3 NE Tonawanda 4.0 700 am 11/20 cocorahs 7 N Buffalo 3.0 800 am 11/20 cocorahs Sloan 3.0 600 am 11/20 amateur radio Boston 3.0 800 am 11/20 amateur radio 2 W West Seneca 2.5 730 am 11/20 cocorahs 1 WNW East Amherst 2.3 750 am 11/20 cocorahs West Seneca 2.0 600 am 11/20 amateur radio

...Genesee County... Corfu 8.0 600 am 11/20 amateur radio 2 NE Stafford 5.8 600 am 11/20 cocorahs

...Jefferson County... 2 SW Carthage 13.8 800 am 11/20 cocorahs 3 S Theresa 8.5 800 am 11/20 cocorahs 1 WSW Watertown 7.2 430 am 11/20 cocorahs

...Lewis County... highmarket 8.6 244 am 11/20 co-op observer 1 NW Constableville 8.0 600 am 11/20 cocorahs 2 W Glenfield 3.1 700 am 11/20 co-op observer Lowville 2.1 700 am 11/20 co-op observer SW Beaver Falls 2.0 700 am 11/20 cocorahs

...Livingston County... Avon 2.1 736 am 11/20 co-op observer

...Monroe County... 5 WNW Rochester 3.5 700 am 11/20 cocorahs Rochester Intl Arpt 2.8 700 am 11/20 ASOS 6 ESE Rochester 2.0 800 am 11/20 cocorahs

...Niagara County... 1 NNE north tonawand 4.3 700 am 11/20 cocorahs 1 NE Pendleton 3.2 700 am 11/20 cocorahs 6 E Niagara Falls 3.0 700 am 11/20 co-op observer 3 NE Youngstown 3.0 700 am 11/20 co-op observer

...Oswego County... 3 NE Bennetts bridge 1.0 700 am 11/20 co-op observer Fulton 1.0 700 am 11/20 co-op observer se Minetto 0.9 730 am 11/20 cocorahs 5 ESE Oswego 0.7 600 am 11/20 cocorahs W Fulton 0.7 700 am 11/20 cocorahs 2 SSE Palermo 0.5 600 am 11/20 co-op observer 7 NNE Phoenix 0.5 600 am 11/20 cocorahs Fulton lock o3 0.5 700 am 11/20 co-op observer 1 NNW Fulton 0.5 700 am 11/20 cocorahs

...Wayne County... 1 E Newark 1.1 700 am 11/20 co-op observer 3 ESE Macedon 0.6 715 am 11/20 cocorahs

...Wyoming County... 6 SW Warsaw 1.8 700 am 11/20 co-op observer
Thanks Jeff. Ouch! That's a lot of snow...
Quoting 6. ricderr:

thanks for the update doc now our next trick will be rapid melt get ready for the water its going to be wet


saw on the news this morning that public officials are saying it will take 5 days to clear all the roads
mom is going to send it back to the lake in 3 days
thanks dok!

75" of snow for Lancaster NY? No way!

Got a riddle for y'all.

If 75" of snow fell in Carbondale IL, I would
A. Shovel the snow out of my driveway and sidewalk (or die trying)
B. Make the biggest snowman in thw wurld.
c. Wait until it melts to go back outside
D. None of the above
E. All of the above
F. Other (please say)
for those in east texas......michael allen...blogger and met student....has a good take on the potential for severe weather this weekend


east texas severe weather blog
Quoting 5. DFWdad:

Begs a serious question though. How much of that snow will stick around? Saw the note about potential flooding due to melt, but would it all melt?


Likely not, especially in places where the snow drifted. I can remember heavy rains and temps in the 50's following snow storms of 12-18 inches, and a lot of snow remained on the ground afterwards.
Quoting 13. 62901IL:

F. Other (please say)


Uncork a 2011 Washington Syrah followed by vast quantities of 16 year old single malt Lagavulin.
after the warm cold returns

mom is going to send it back to the lake in 3 days


i see the rain in the forecast.....what an awful slush that will be
Quoting 15. LongIslandBeaches:



Likely not, especially in places where the snow drifted. I can remember heavy rains and temps in the 50's following snow storms of 12-18 inches, and a lot of snow remained on the ground afterwards.
ya but it really isn't snow after the rains it normally is solid ice
for the archives,

Throwback Thursday Image

Hurricane Audrey radar





just a little snow in the bills stadium...and yes...this is an accurate picture..... not from 2006.......canada...with beer that's no longer brewed.....LOL


i can't post the pic...but you can see them here

Quoting 20. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya but it really isn't snow after the rains it normally is solid ice


Indeed. It seems to transform into small pellets of an icy consistency - great for forming devastating snowballs :D
Get ready for the severe weather then the cold once again.
nice blog dr masters that is an extreme event no doubt.
It seems like we will have a round of strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday evening here in the northern peninsula of Florida, then a stalled front causing showers for 3 days, then a blast of possibly colder air then this week right on Thanksgiving Eve into Black Friday. Always loved those cold Thanksgiving Days... and Birthdays. Being Thanksgiving Day falls on my Birthday, this is an awesome gift from God himself.
Quoting 13. 62901IL:

thanks dok!

75" of snow for Lancaster NY? No way!

Got a riddle for y'all.

If 75" of snow fell in Carbondale IL, I would
A. Shovel the snow out of my driveway and sidewalk (or die trying)
B. Make the biggest snowman in thw wurld.
c. Wait until it melts to go back outside
D. None of the above
E. All of the above
F. Other (please say)
C! P.S. can you look at your WUmail.
The elderly in this event will basically have to cross their fingers that the power doesn't go out and that someone wallows through the snow to check on them. At least it is an urban area so it would not be an inhuman effort to get to neighbors.
Earlier this week, models were showing a massive rainstorm here, but it looks like that isn't going to happen per the latest runs. It would have been a disaster with up to 10 inches of rain.
Earlier this week, models were showing a massive rainstorm here, but it looks like that isn't going to happen per the latest runs. It would have been a disaster with up to 10 inches of rain.

what...long range models prove to be inaccurate.....for the love of all things holy tell me this can't be true
NASA’s shocking CO2 visualization: will policymakers take action?
By Dan Taylor, Daily Digest News November 20th, 2014



It’s one thing to talk about the impacts of global warming, but a recent NASA video is providing a visualization of just how much carbon dioxide is being dumped into the atmosphere and where it ends up being distributed. As the push for political action on the issue heats up, the video is sure to drive the argument that the CO2 issue is a very real one indeed.

The simulation, which a supercomputer compiled over 75 days at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland to create, shows that most of the CO2 — not surprisingly — is coming from the United States, Europe, and East Asia, according to National Geographic. Once released, the CO2 tends to stay in the Northern Hemisphere, blanketing the entire northern half of the globe with carbon dioxide and largely keeping out of the Southern Hemisphere.

The simulation also shows that the oceans and forests wipe away CO2 emissions during the summer months when foliage is at its peak, only to allow carbon dioxide to once again flood the atmosphere in the winter months.

An estimated 36 billion metric tons of CO2 is released into the atmosphere from human activity like burning fossil fuels. CO2 concentrations topped 400 parts per million for the first time ever in the spring of 2013, and scientists believe that concentrations above 450 parts per million would result in “dangerous” climate disruptions, although some would argue that humanity has already reached that point.


More tools are on their way to study the effects of fossil fuels: NASA launched its Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite in July to track CO2 emissions more precisely. The satellite should be operational in 2015, and it could provide some more insight on just how much effect forests and oceans have in scrubbing the atmosphere of carbon dioxide. Scientists fear that they may have already reached their limits in how much CO2 they can take in.

Scientists are pushing on a global scale to get world leaders to enact policies that would stop global warming in its tracks by capping fossil fuels and increasing the usage of alternative energy sources.

Global warming could cause the rising of sea levels, extinction of species, more violent storms, and more prevalent famines. As a result, lawmakers have pushed for measures now to deal with the problem, but there is still opposition to stricter measures from those who question humanity’s impact on the environment.

Scientists estimate that the Earth’s surface temperature has increased by 0.8 degrees Celsius this century, and about two-thirds of that rise happened since 1980.

Quoting reedzone:
It seems like we will have a round of strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday evening here in the northern peninsula of Florida, then a stalled front causing showers for 3 days, then a blast of possibly colder air then this week right on Thanksgiving Eve into Black Friday. Always loved those cold Thanksgiving Days... and Birthdays. Being Thanksgiving Day falls on my Birthday, this is an awesome gift from God himself.
Well, some--for instance, the homeless--may not appreciate such a heavenly 'gift' as much as others might. :) At any rate, from my personal POV, I'd be happy if the temperature never dropped below about 75, so I've already had enough sub-60 temps this year to last me fr the entire winter...
Looks like a lil rain in SE TX this weekend. We need the rain, not going to get overly concerned about severe weather quite yet
Quoting 18. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

after the warm cold returns


Good morning Keep..I apologize for my post yesterday...I was Irate with the comment..I wont do it again
Quoting 13. 62901IL:

thanks dok!

75" of snow for Lancaster NY? No way!

Got a riddle for y'all.

If 75" of snow fell in Carbondale IL, I would
A. Shovel the snow out of my driveway and sidewalk (or die trying)
B. Make the biggest snowman in thw wurld.
c. Wait until it melts to go back outside
D. None of the above
E. All of the above
F. Other (please say)


F. Drive to Lambert Airport and hop on the first flight to the Caribbean if i can get to my car first. It's hard to walk in 6' 3" of snow.
Quoting 34. RitaEvac:

Looks like a lil rain in SE TX this weekend. We need the rain, not going to get overly concerned about severe weather quite yet


There's a 20%-30% chance of rain there today actually.
Good morning Keep..I apologize for my post yesterday...I was Irate with the comment..I wont do it again


you just keep providing the informative posts...leave the bannable posts to me
Quoting 23. LongIslandBeaches:



Indeed. It seems to transform into small pellets of an icy consistency - great for forming devastating snowballs :D


Every year one of my friends would pelt me in the face with a snowball at least once every winter. Not fun.
Good Morning. I know that we always track record lows and record highs for any given day but some parts of this current weather system (the ridging pattern) is moving so swiftly off the coast in parts of the SE that you have to wonder about "records" for swiftest warm ups or cool downs.

It was 25 degrees when I walked the dog this morning in the Tallahassee region around 7:00 am and the current area temps, just 5 hours later, are 62 with a high later today of 64..............Incredible temp differential and recovery.
Lake Effect snow band has shifted to the north and is now affecting the same areas hardest hit with the last Lake Effect event.
Not good news for the clean up efforts on the south side of Buffalo.
Updated radar image
After our back to back Blizzards in 2010 I had up to 5 feet of snow in my yard.Yes it's a pain but it's not something you see very often if you don't live in a snowy climate so it was a sight to behold.
Quoting 42. washingtonian115:

After our back to back Blizzards in 2010 I had up to 5 feet of snow in my yard.Yes it's a pain but it's not something you see very often if you don't live in a snowy climate so it was a sight to behold.

Wish we got that down here in southern VA. lol
Well I'll post the article..But I just hope it doesn't start a war on here..

Earth is on track to warmest year on record..
Link

43. Storms306
It was in the winter of 2009-2010 and something I doubt I'll see again in my life time.It was impressive and we stayed in the house for a week with the occasional trek up the street to the CVS or 7-11 when we needed small things.
Quoting 30. ricderr:

Earlier this week, models were showing a massive rainstorm here, but it looks like that isn't going to happen per the latest runs. It would have been a disaster with up to 10 inches of rain.

what...long range models prove to be inaccurate.....for the love of all things holy tell me this can't be true


It was medium range to long range which kept showing the same scenario for days, which is why it was important to watch that.
They just cleared the parking lot this morning at the hotel where Reed and the Dominator 2 are located.
Now it's snowing heavily again at their location. They got about 5' from the last event.
I thought this was fascinating!.

Credit goes to CWG and it's from the Korean war memorial
You can get more images of recent fall photos taken of D.C here :Link
However, the combination of the long range and short range model runs are still showing another arctic blast for Florida right on time for Thanksgiving Day. In some ways, they still show a stalling rain band, but not nearly as intense as the earlier, medium/long range runs showed. It will be interesting how everything pans out next week. Expect strong to severe storms from the panhandle to the peninsula of Florida Sunday.
Quoting 47. washingtonian115:

I thought this was fascinating!.



That's pretty cool! I take it you're from D.C.? I was just there this past summer.
What happened to global warming? It went away.
MLCAPE between 500 and 750 J/Kg IMBY is a bit modest, although it seems modest CAP can sometimes produce.




Not rock star impressive, but not terrible. I am, however, liking the deep layer shear.



Quoting 44. washingtonian115:

Well I'll post the article..But I just hope it doesn't start a war on here..

Earth is on track to warmest year on record..
Link

43. Storms306
It was in the winter of 2009-2010 and something I doubt I'll see again in my life time.It was impressive and we stayed in the house for a week with the occasional trek up the street to the CVS or 7-11 when we needed small things.

That was my senior year in high school. We got a total of about 10 inches of snow that season in danville.
Quoting 51. EdMahmoud:

MLCAPE between 500 and 750 J/Kg IMBY is a bit modest, although it seems modest CAP can sometimes produce.




Not rock star impressive, but not terrible. I am, however, liking the deep layer shear.






I wouldn't rule out a few tornadoes there on saturday.
Quoting 49. TimTheWxMan:



That's pretty cool! I take it you're from D.C.? I was just there this past summer.
Yes I'am :).The link shows you more pictures that were taken of the fall colors around D.C other than the national mall.
50.
This joke has become Tiresome and corny.
5:35 PM GMT on November 20, 2014
It was medium range to long range which kept showing the same scenario for days, which is why it was important to watch that.


as i understand it was one model...10 plus days out with only one run that was agreed by another unreliable model and other models did not agree.....my point is not the model....nor those that watch them.....the last long range models...that depicted the cold we're experiencing was correct...but there was also logical evidence that supported it....so my point is...the model is not the forecast..but a tool to the forecast....
What happened to global warming? It went away.


i think you might want to expand your outlook to a world view....
Quoting 52. Storms306:


That was my senior year in high school. We got a total of about 10 inches of snow that season in danville.
Well the next winter it was reverse!.Downtown D.C only got about 10.1 inches of snow in N.W D.C I got about 11 inches.We were avoided with snow to the north and the south of us.We had a snow hole as seen here..
All the short range models now have heavy rain across C & SE FL on Saturday with totals from .75 to 1.5" just on Saturday with rains continuing thru next Tuesday.
Quoting 58. StormTrackerScott:

All the short range models now have heavy rain across C & SE FL on Saturday with totals from .75 to 1.5" just on Saturday with rains continuing thru next Tuesday.


That is just flat out not true.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


That is just flat out not true.


There would be a big dry circle right over S.W. Florida.
Quoting 57. washingtonian115:

Well the next winter it was reverse!.Downtown D.C only got about 10.1 inches of snow in N.W D.C I got about 11 inches.We were avoided with snow to the north and the south of us.We had a snow hole as seen here..


Maybe this year we will get some decent snows :)
Quoting 60. tampabaymatt:



That is just flat out not true.
I see heavy rain for the panhandle...
Quoting 41. Sfloridacat5:

Lake Effect snow band has shifted to the north and is now affecting the same areas hardest hit with the last Lake Effect event.
Not good news for the clean up efforts on the south side of Buffalo.
Updated radar image



And it's intensifying, back-building, and expanding as well. Already seen 23'' at East Aurora as of 10AM today. Lancaster is at 12" with 63" falling on the 18-19th. I need to move to south side of Buffalo. :D
Quoting 32. wxmod:

In case anyone thought Beijing China was cleaning up it's air pollution

It will not happen over night so those numbers don't surprise anyone .. lets see what the levels are in five years to see if anything has been done .. but to expect movement in less then a month from the agreement is not realistic !!
Quoting 62. Storms306:


Maybe this year we will get some decent snows :)
If the southern Jet stream is active and the cold air is in place anything is possible.But with the pattern last year a lot of our snow storms came from clippers that swung off the coast and got moisture rather than come from the gulf.
Quoting 2. ricderr:

thanx doc....from the last blog

I just wanted to mention a privacy issue...it's no big deal to me as if you want it...i'm happy to post my address and phone number...but i know others want to lead a more private life......

someone can take your avatar pic and google search it...so if your avatar pic as an example is the same one as your linkedin avatar...someone would be able to get your personal information from there such as name and workplace information and from there go further


That is really good to know. Thank you.
I remember going to the memorial about the time it was first completed. It is truly astonishing now to see it with the landscaping growing in around it. Thanks for sharing.


Quoting 47. washingtonian115:

I thought this was fascinating!.

Credit goes to CWG and it's from the Korean war memorial
You can get more images of recent fall photos taken of D.C here :Link
Erie Co. Officials: Storm Fatalities Up to Eight
Link
Quoting 61. Sfloridacat5:



There would be a big dry circle right over S.W. Florida.


The models have been all over the place with rainfall totals for FL for the next 5 days. The GFS seems to be the most consistent with the highest rainfall totals affecting the panhandle. Anything can happen really. But, it's the dry season so I don't see any chance of 6" to 10" totals.
Quoting 18. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

after the warm cold returns




This would be more fun to watch if it was TO :)
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

DEEPENING STORM EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST/UPR GRTLKS
SUN-MON AND LEAVING STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IN ITS WAKE INTO TUE WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CNTRL-ERN CONUS. AS COOLING NRN STREAM ENERGY CONSOLIDATES OVER
THE NRN TIER EXPECT MEANINGFUL SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM..
. LY/LWR AS WELL AS SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY.
ENHANCED RNFL IS PSBL OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VOH VLY AND
SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE SFC LOW/TRAILING FRONT WILL
SEPARATE VERY CONTRASTING TEMPS... UP TO 10-20F BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE NRN TIER VERSUS PLUS 10-25F ANOMALIES IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH HIGHEST ANOMALIES MOST LIKELY FOR MIN TEMPS.
EXPECT A
GENERAL DRYING TREND OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY MIDWEEK
WITH TEMPS MODERATING ASIDE FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND VICINITY WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.

EARLY-MID PERIOD THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT UPON PERIODS OF
RAIN/HIGHER ELEV SNOW OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE WEST WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMTS OVER FAVORED TERRAIN. WIDE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE SOLNS
BY NEXT WED-THU LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING
COVERAGE/AMTS OF PCPN OVER THE WEST AT THAT TIME. PREFERRED FCST
INCORPORATING THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN AND WPC CONTINUITY WOULD YIELD A
SWD EXTENT OF MSTR BETWEEN THE MOST NRN 00Z/06Z GFS AND SWD
12Z/19-00Z/20 ECMWF RUNS. SOME OF THIS MSTR MAY EXTEND INTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WRN CONUS TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN 10F
OF NORMAL MOST DAYS.

RAUSCH


Quoting 55. ricderr:

It was medium range to long range which kept showing the same scenario for days, which is why it was important to watch that.


as i understand it was one model...10 plus days out with only one run that was agreed by another unreliable model and other models did not agree.....my point is not the model....nor those that watch them.....the last long range models...that depicted the cold we're experiencing was correct...but there was also logical evidence that supported it....so my point is...the model is not the forecast..but a tool to the forecast....


I never mentioned "forecast", I only mentioned earlier runs.. I know they are only tools to help forecasting the weather in the near future.
Quoting 68. HaoleboySurfEC:

I remember going to the memorial about the time it was first completed. It is truly astonishing now to see it with the landscaping growing in around it. Thanks for sharing.



i have never been to that part of D.C during the night hours as long as I have lived here.It'll creep me out for sure XD.
Quoting 60. tampabaymatt:



That is just flat out not true.


Really? I am getting sick of you already.

WRF (Short Range model)
Quoting 66. washingtonian115:

If the southern Jet stream is active and the cold air is in place anything is possible.But with the pattern last year a lot of our snow storms came from clippers that swung off the coast and got moisture rather than come from the gulf.

True. However, last year we did end up with a couple of snows that crippled my city.
That is really good to know. Thank you.

no problem...i can't take the credit...a friend stumbled upon it....tried it....found a persons full personal info......workplace.....home address...family info.....then mass emailed which i was included....showing just how not private the cyber world can be
Quoting 44. washingtonian115:

Well I'll post the article..But I just hope it doesn't start a war on here..

Earth is on track to warmest year on record..
Link

43. Storms306
It was in the winter of 2009-2010 and something I doubt I'll see again in my life time.It was impressive and we stayed in the house for a week with the occasional trek up the street to the CVS or 7-11 when we needed small things.


Maybe this winter ??? :-)
Ok, here's what we know right now..
A system will be deepening as it heads northeast into the Midwestern states, bringing severe weather potential from Texas to the Florida peninsula in the weekend. The front stalls over the peninsula bringing showers and possible storms from Monday to Tuesday evening. Then a very cold airmass once again invades the southern states on the eve of Thanksgiving Day, possibly a bit more colder then this weeks arctic blast.
I never mentioned "forecast", I only mentioned earlier runs.. I know they are only tools to help forecasting the weather in the near future.


great...i wish others were like you
Quoting 76. Storms306:


True. However, last year we did end up with a couple of snows that crippled my city.
The thing I liked about 2014 was that it was a surprise winter.No one was expecting anything!.
Quoting 78. georgevandenberghe:



Maybe this winter ??? :-)

Well most of the forecasting agencies are calling for snow and cold.Blizzards in it's self have become a rarity in the D.C area let alone two ones back to back.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


The models have been all over the place with rainfall totals for FL for the next 5 days. The GFS seems to be the most consistent with the highest rainfall totals affecting the panhandle. Anything can happen really. But, it's the dry season so I don't see any chance of 6" to 10" totals.



I'll be happy if we see a good rain (.5" or so)about every week. That will keep us real close to normal for this time of year.

We picked up around .8" from the last system.
Quoting 66. washingtonian115:

If the southern Jet stream is active and the cold air is in place anything is possible.But with the pattern last year a lot of our snow storms came from clippers that swung off the coast and got moisture rather than come from the gulf.


The rule of thumb for clippers is that the DC area usually gets almost nothing. Last winter was truly exceptional in that we got a lot from clippers and also that warm air came in ahead of them, the cold front came through and then very quickly rain changed over to snow, got heavier and produced yet another plowable snow. We only had one big dump (Feb 13 or so) but many significant school closing hassle level events.
Quoting 75. StormTrackerScott:



Really? I am getting sick of you already.

WRF (Short Range model)



That is one model. You said "all models". The GFS is not showing what you described, so your statement of "all models" is incorrect. Just trying to keep accurate information flowing on the blog.
Quoting 81. washingtonian115:

The thing I liked about 2014 was that it was a surprise winter.No one was expecting anything!.

Very true!! I believe it was the Feb. snow storm, started snowing as i was headed to the office on my last night of that rotation. When i got off at 6 the next morning i couldnt make it out the city.lol we had something like 4.5 inches and a crust of ice on that. It was a mess.

Dr. Greg Forbes
1 hr ·
Several of you have asked how I'm feeling. I'm generally feeling pretty well, except for the tingling in my fingers and feet that is a cumulative effect of the chemotherapy. Now that those sessions have ended I'm hoping that the tingling will lessen with time, but it has actually gotten worst over the past week. I see my oncologist on Monday morning. He will be looking at blood tests and an upcoming CT (body) scan from now until the end of the year to see if I'm cancer-free or not
Quoting 47. washingtonian115:

I thought this was fascinating!.

Credit goes to CWG and it's from the Korean war memorial
You can get more images of recent fall photos taken of D.C here :Link


Washi, I have always found the Korean war Memorial in DC to be one of the most hauntingly beautiful works I've ever seen. Particularly at night when the lights are on.. wow.
The Dominator 2 feed has been pretty cool. They are right on the edge of the band so they keep going in and out of it.
It will stop snowing for a few minutes and you can see clear skies to their NE, then a wall of heavy snow will move across the neighborhood and they'll get near white out conditions.

Right now half the neighborhood is getting heavy snow and the other half there's no snow coming down.
But its constantly changing because they're right on the edge of the band.
Quoting 50. tennesseebound:

What happened to global warming? It went away.


What happened to global warming is it got worse. According to NCDC, October 2013 to September 2014 broke the record as the hottest 12-calendar-month period globally, and then November 2013 to October 2014 broke that record.
Nice an icy again today. Slip sliding away on the roadways - especially the mountain roads I live on.

Would be nice if we wouldn't teeter totter from below freezing to above freezing. That way the ICE will go away. Really sucks when you have to remote start the car and wait 10 minutes so you can actually open up the car door to get in. I know you long time Northerners dealt with this all the time, just a new thing for the Florida boy. Learning how to judiciously use the accelerator and brake really soon is starting to become second nature.

Anyways - Hope everyone has a good thursday.

Ricderr - Notice my avatar, they can google it all they want... What can be really bad/dangerous is posting pics of your kids and identifying them.
TWC just said Hamburg (where Mike Bettes is located) has picked up an additional 12-18" of snow.
Cars that cleared their roofs from the previous Lake Effect event now have about 18" on their roofs.
Pretty amazing.
Quoting 86. Storms306:


Very true!! I believe it was the Feb. snow storm, started snowing as i was headed to the office on my last night of that rotation. When i got off at 6 the next morning i couldnt make it out the city.lol we had something like 4.5 inches and a crust of ice on that. It was a mess.


The DC metro area got about 2x the liquid water that was forecast and 1.5X the snow accumulation forecast from the Feb 12-13 event. A band set up to my north and Washingtonian 115 got several inches more than I did early in the event but we both wound up with a lot.. I remember about 9-10" of fairly dense heavy snow.
Quoting 91. Dakster:

Nice an icy again today. Slip sliding away on the roadways - especially the mountain roads I live on.

Would be nice if we wouldn't teeter totter from below freezing to above freezing. That way the ICE will go away. Really sucks when you have to remote start the car and wait 10 minutes so you can actually open up the car door to get in. I know you long time Northerners dealt with this all the time, just a new thing for the Florida boy. Learning how to judiciously use the accelerator and brake really soon is starting to become second nature.

Anyways - Hope everyone has a good thursday.

Ricderr - Notice my avatar, they can google it all they want... What can be really bad/dangerous is posting pics of your kids and identifying them.


Hot water will free the door in seconds. However you have to dry off the edges before closing it again or it will freeze up much worse.
Quoting 92. Sfloridacat5:

TWC just said Hamburg (where Mike Bettes is located) has picked up an additional 12-18" of snow.
Cars that cleared their roofs from the previous Lake Effect event now have about 18" on their roofs.
Pretty amazing.


Lake Erie will be drained completely if this continues :)
Quoting 50. tennesseebound:

What happened to global warming? It went away.


Nope. As usually happens, large local deviations overwhelm the smaller global signal. The globe is averaging record warm. North America east of the Rockies is colder than normal, the only part of the NH that is.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


That is one model. You said "all models". The GFS is not showing what you described, so your statement of "all models" is incorrect. Just trying to keep accurate information flowing on the blog.


Yeah I dont understand what he means by all models, certainly just posting one run of one model at one time.

This is Thursday-Sunday.


This is Sunday-Tuesday.


The panhandle is going to get most of it appears. Central/South will get some rain im sure but not to the totals of some of those rogue models.
Ricderr - Notice my avatar, they can google it all they want... What can be really bad/dangerous is posting pics of your kids and identifying them.

yep..have to protect the kiddos....

last hurricane season i was looking up twitter posts on one of the tropical systems and saw a post with a personal pic avatar which showed a young teenager....they also occasionally post on here saying they're a met student.....i just left it alone.....but this one surprised me as i checked an avatar from my mom....who wants to be super private....and voila...it led to a quilting blog where it gives her name and such......
It just keeps going, and going, and going, and going. You get the point.

Quoting 85. tampabaymatt:



That is one model. You said "all models". The GFS is not showing what you described, so your statement of "all models" is incorrect. Just trying to keep accurate information flowing on the blog.


Re read the post. Again "All the short range models" the NAM & WRF. Also now the Canadian. It would help if you could read the post instead of just always jumping at my post. The problem is you do it all the time and get proved wrong just about every time. I would give it up already if I was you.
Quoting 93. georgevandenberghe:



The DC metro area got about 2x the liquid water that was forecast and 1.5X the snow accumulation forecast from the Feb 12-13 event. A band set up to my north and Washingtonian 115 got several inches more than I did early in the event but we both wound up with a lot.. I remember about 9-10" of fairly dense heavy snow.


I hope we end up with something like that again.lol as long as im off work anyway. Living way off in the county like i do they don't tend to clear the roads for about 3 days.
Quoting 50. tennesseebound:

What happened to global warming? It went away.



I don't think so.

NOAA Global Analysis - October 2014

Global Highlights

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for October 2014 was the highest on record for October, at 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F).

The global land surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th century average of 9.3°C (48.7°F)—the fifth highest for October on record.

For the ocean, the October global sea surface temperature was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 15.9°C (60.6°F) and the highest for October on record.

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–October period (year-to-date) was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.4°F). The first ten months of 2014 were the warmest such period on record.




...The first ten months of 2014 (January–October) were the warmest such period since record keeping began in 1880, with a combined global land and ocean average surface temperature 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.4°F), surpassing the previous record set in 1998 and tied in 2010 by 0.02°C (0.04°F). 2014 is currently on track to be the warmest year on record.



A year-to-date graphic from NOAA illustrates where 2014 is so far (black line) and the potential results from various temperature scenarios that could play out in November and December. (NOAA)





More here ...
Quoting 95. tampabaymatt:



Lake Erie will be drained completely if this continues :)


Yep. Another 12,000 inches of snow over an area appoximately the size of the lake would do it.
For people you can't read very well.

All the short range models now have heavy rain across C & SE FL on Saturday with totals from .75 to 1.5" just on Saturday with rains continuing thru next Tuesday.
CPC in it's 11/20/14 update has odds of El Nino increased to 75%.That is up from the 58% it had in the early November update. Read the whole discussion by CPC at my ENSO Blog.

Re read the post. Again "All the short range models" the NAM & WRF

you might want to rethink that statement.......there's quite a few other short range models than just the two you mentioned
CPC in it's 11/20/14 update has odds of El Nino increased to 75%.That is up from the 58% it had in the early November update. Read the whole discussion by CPC at my ENSO Blog.


i just read that.....although they also talk about the atmosphere still not aligned with el nino......i'm thinking if we don't see some change along those lines....they won't do anything in december
Quoting 85. tampabaymatt:



That is one model. You said "all models". The GFS is not showing what you described, so your statement of "all models" is incorrect. Just trying to keep accurate information flowing on the blog.


Don't bother Matt. He's cherry picking models again.
Greetings.
It has not stopped raining here, since LAST Monday (10 days in a row) about 14'' total at my house.
A major road along the east coast has been entirely washed out, and several areas underwater.
Looking at the SatImages, it shows no sign of stopping in the next day or more.

Have not had this kind of rain in years. Just constant stuff, some heavy and some wind and lightening at times.
23C temps at noon is most unusual.
Quoting WxGuy2014:
It just keeps going, and going, and going, and going. You get the point.



Yep, amazing.
The band also found a way to line up right over the same areas that got hit the hardest with the last system.
Could see another 18-24" based on TWC forecasting.


Quoting 104. StormTrackerScott:

For people you can't read very well.

All the short range models now have heavy rain across C & SE FL on Saturday with totals from .75 to 1.5" just on Saturday with rains continuing thru next Tuesday.


The are more models than just those that predict the weather in a short range timeframe.
Quoting 104. StormTrackerScott:

For people you can't read very well.

All the short range models now have heavy rain across C & SE FL on Saturday with totals from .75 to 1.5" just on Saturday with rains continuing thru next Tuesday.
Scott are we at the point where you tell us again, that you speak for many people on this blog??
hold on gang...let me lighten the mood....anyone seen any beer cans in snow pics lately?


No, but I did see a old Schiltz can while walking Nola Roux near the Zoo earlier.
115. PTXer
Quoting 109. pottery:

Greetings.
It has not stopped raining here, since LAST Monday (10 days in a row) about 14'' total at my house.
A major road along the east coast has been entirely washed out, and several areas underwater.
Looking at the SatImages, it shows no sign of stopping in the next day or more.

Have not had this kind of rain in years. Just constant stuff, some heavy and some wind and lightening at times.
23C temps at noon is most unusual.


At least your cisterns should be full, right Pottery?
Quoting 113. ricderr:

hold on gang...let me lighten the mood....anyone seen any beer cans in snow pics lately?





you rang? no more Snow/Beer pictures lately but I'll be sure to provide one on Linkin for your enjoyment..

But I did see a snowman made of tumbleweed..El Paso at its finest..




Earth atmosphere 2.0 has a a lot mo Water Vapor available, like 7-10% mo' than our Grandfathers did.



my snowman tumbleweed pic..WU wouldnt me modify my comment..go figure..
Quoting 100. StormTrackerScott:



Re read the post. Again "All the short range models" the NAM & WRF. Also now the Canadian. It would help if you could read the post instead of just always jumping at my post. The problem is you do it all the time and get proved wrong just about every time. I would give it up already if I was you.


Scott, what I dont get is this. You appear, on the surface, to cherry pick models to tune to your forecast. All the time I usually see you post HPC QPF guidance yet I haven't seen you post it at all for this storm? Why haven't you posted that? Is it because it doesn't align with your forecast?

Also I think you meant meso-scale models, not short range models.
Thats a browser issue, reopening it allows one to modify usually.

Don't have a clue exactly how the modelling will work out for Florida and rest of Conus over the next several days but I am 100% certain of one thing; the weather system will traverse from West to East................................
If this keeps up, we could see 7-8' of snow in some areas from the two combined events.
Quoting 121. weathermanwannabe:

Don't have a clue exactly how the modelling will work out for Florida and rest of Conus over the next several days but I am 100% certain of one thing; the weather system will traverse from West to East................................


Roger that...
Just one more about the beer-fridge from 2006.
To my surprise this morning the picture was on the website of a dutch newspaper, "showing how the people in Buffalo" reacted to the snow. I could not resist to sent them the link (thanks WU-detective Sar) to the 2006 ad and 15 minutes later the article disappeared.
You see, that's the way 'news' goes around the globe: copy/paste
my snowman tumbleweed pic..WU wouldnt me modify my comment..go figure..


that's actually albuquerque ....but nice try
Quoting 119. boltdwright:



Scott, what I dont get is this. You appear, on the surface, to cherry pick models to tune to your forecast. All the time I usually see you post HPC QPF guidance yet I haven't seen you post it at all for this storm? Why haven't you posted that? Is it because it doesn't align with your forecast?

Also I think you meant meso-scale models, not short range models.



Yeah the reason I am right a lot of the time. Just like the short range models showed this coastal storm along the east coast of FL when the NWS had no rain forecast or the 1" to 2" of rain last Monday when the HPC only had .25 to .50. Fact is the HPC tends to under estimate rainfall across FL. The reason why these short range models are showing so much rain late Saturday is because of a warm front moving north along with deep tropical moisture moving north from the NW Caribbean.
lake effect ends sudden warm up rain
Quoting 128. ricderr:

my snowman tumbleweed pic..WU wouldnt me modify my comment..go figure..


that's actually albuquerque ....but nice try


tumbleweed shown anywhere would make it El Pasoish..
how long does it take for a warm beer to get just right after being thrown into a pile of powdered snow? never seen that white stuff.
Quoting 132. islander101010:

how long does it take for a warm beer to get just right after being thrown into a pile of powdered snow?

Far too long.
tumbleweed shown anywhere would make it El Pasoish..

just trying to help you be factual
Quoting 132. islander101010:

how long does it take for a warm beer to get just right after being thrown into a pile of powdered snow?


In England, instantaneous. Most other places probably 20 minutes for a can 40 minutes for a bottle (guessing).
An ice bath would be much faster. (not a guess!). If you really want to cool it fast make a brine bath but take it out after two minutes (can) or three minutes (bottle) or it will start to freeze.
The 90-day 500mb Omega map via Michael Ventrice shows negative values across the entirety of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a sure signal that an El Nino is ongoing. It's nice to see CPC upgrade the chances to 75%; I'm not sure why they were even lowered.

A baseball player bats .300 and he's in the Hall of Fame. A weather forecaster bats .300 and he's doing something else claiming he's in the Hall of Fame.
The 90-day OLR anomaly map via Michael Ventrice shows negative values across the entirety of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a sure signal that an El Nino is ongoing. It's nice to see CPC upgrade the chances to 75%; I'm not sure why they were even lowered.

yes...but he also retweeted a bit by wsi....showing that the cfsv2 shows a nina type pattern for december.....
Quoting 134. ricderr:

tumbleweed shown anywhere would make it El Pasoish..

just trying to help you be factual


right..because we wont to be factual about a snowman pic made of tumbleweed just as pic of beer cans placed in snow..because we all know this is a SCIENCE BLOG!!

Quoting 138. ricderr:

The 90-day OLR anomaly map via Michael Ventrice shows negative values across the entirety of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a sure signal that an El Nino is ongoing. It's nice to see CPC upgrade the chances to 75%; I'm not sure why they were even lowered.

yes...but he also retweeted a bit by wsi....showing that the cfsv2 shows a nina type pattern for december.....

Yes, I saw that, but WSI was just posting a forecast by the CFSv2, which has been extremely inaccurate in regards to both ENSO forecasting and temperature forecasting. Up until a few days ago, it maintained its forecast of a blowtorch November across the United States. That very obviously has not been the case lol.
Quoting 113. ricderr:

hold on gang...let me lighten the mood....anyone seen any beer cans in snow pics lately?





No but I keep refrigerator overflow in coolers outside when mean temperatures are below 5C (like this week).
And the milk lasts longer on the shaded porch in January than it does in the fridge.

Yes, I saw that, but WSI was just posting a forecast by the CFSv2, which has been extremely inaccurate in regards to both ENSO forecasting and temperature forecasting. Up until a few days ago, it maintained its forecast of a blowtorch November across the United States. That very obviously has not been the case lol.

very true....they also discount the long range outlook for el nino for the model as it's biased to the recent kelvin wave.....i'd like to look into their website but they want quite a bit more for their website than i'm willing to share.....i'll have to stick to ventrice tweets and their daily blog
TWC was just showing lake effect snow coming off Lake Nipigon in Canada, which is just north of Lake Superior.
It's a pretty small lake in comparison to the Great Lakes.
West Seneca, NY. From Mashable
Well I have to go back to work..I would love to stay and have people hit my profile picture and perhaps find a Link In account to terrorize my family..

It just brings me to a useful thought but isn't it funny that the Internet will provide search engines on how to buy a gun illegally or make a bomb on the internet and at the same time provide useful information to trolls on how to harrass people offline ...you're damn if you're on the internet and you're damn if you're not..







Ding! This needs to be studied. Let's apply for grant $!

Quoting 132. islander101010:

how long does it take for a warm beer to get just right after being thrown into a pile of powdered snow? never seen that white stuff.
Quoting 140. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, I saw that, but WSI was just posting a forecast by the CFSv2, which has been extremely inaccurate in regards to both ENSO forecasting and temperature forecasting. Up until a few days ago, it maintained its forecast of a blowtorch November across the United States. That very obviously has not been the case lol.


In fact CFSv2 is the only model that breaks out of the consensus from the other ENSO models and forecasts a Moderate El Nino.

Quoting 148. tampabaymatt:




I thought we threw this one out the window:)
You can have 70+" of snow (8 deaths and counting) and it doesn't get a name because the system doesn't affect a large enough population.

But 1" of snow in Atlanta would get a Winter Storm name.

In fact CFSv2 is the only model that breaks out of the consensus from the other ENSO models and forecasts a Moderate El Nino.


that's why you look at them all
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
You can have 70 " of snow (8 deaths and counting) and it doesn't get a name because the system doesn't affect a large enough population.

But 1" of snow in Atlanta would get a Winter Storm name.



It's more the nature of the event from a meteorological standpoint that has deterred TWC from assigning this storm a name. Who cares, IMO winter is a lot more fun without that bull honky.
Don't shoot me.



According to Ryan Maue, month to date, the average lower-48 temperature is 39F, on par with 2000 for the coldest going back to 1958. While many locations are warming up right now, upcoming cold shots should lead to little change of this value.

November 2014 should end up as one of the coldest on record in the United States.

Quoting 151. Sfloridacat5:

You can have 70+" of snow (8 deaths and counting) and it doesn't get a name because the system doesn't affect a large enough population.

But 1" of snow in Atlanta would get a Winter Storm name.




Imagine what it would get if Miami got 1" of snow.
TA13 -

If your forecast map verifies and it gets any warmer here in Alaska I will be able to transplant my Mango, Avocado, Orange, Carambola, and Kumquat trees from Florida up here.
Quoting 155. Dakster:



Imagine what it would get if Miami got 1" of snow.


Well it wasn't an inch, but...
Quoting 135. georgevandenberghe:



In England, instantaneous. Most other places probably 20 minutes for a can 40 minutes for a bottle (guessing).
An ice bath would be much faster. (not a guess!). If you really want to cool it fast make a brine bath but take it out after two minutes (can) or three minutes (bottle) or it will start to freeze.
If you spin the container it is much faster and the reason is probably not what you think. Most people would say that it's because friction causes a liquid layer to form and that enhances conduction. That's mostly wrong, although good contact does help. The real reason is quantum in nature: the shorter time a particle stays in one place, the greater the heat transfer. If you spin a beer say the speed of an electric drill, you can have the can or bottle cold in a few seconds.
Quoting Dakster:


Imagine what it would get if Miami got 1" of snow.


If it stuck to the roads now that would be something.
But at least S. Florida is flat. The only hills are garbage dumps and on/off ramps to the highways (forgot the bridges).
I live 60 miles away in Canada near Hamilton ... we got a sprinkling of snow ... fascinated how conditions can be so perfect for such an extreme snow-machine event like in the Buffalo region
Quoting 154. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't shoot me.


*pulls trigger*

Sorry, my finger slipped.
Notice in the lower right corner of pic, it mentions ice rinks melting in Anchorage Alaska, just means the jetstream was way north probably bringing record warmth to Alaska and nose diving into the lower 48 and cold extreme weather all the way to Miami with snow. If this were to happen today, people would be running around hollering that the weather is out of control and something is going on.

Quoting 162. RitaEvac:

Notice in the lower right corner of pic, it mentions ice rinks melting in Anchorage Alaska, just means the jetstream was way north probably bringing record warmth to Alaska and nose diving into the lower 48 and cold extreme weather all the way to Miami with snow. If this were to happen today, people would be running around hollering that the weather is out of control and something is going on.




Back in 1977 when the CO2 ppm was what then?

330ppm



Corpus Christi harbor bridge. This bridge is steep and you don't want to get caught crossing it when there is freezing drizzle/rain.
I used to drive over the bridge going to work everyday when I lived in the area.

Quoting 157. wxgeek723:



Well it wasn't an inch, but...



I was there during that snow event in Miami... Sorry to date/age myself... But it is what it is.
Quoting 163. Patrap:



Back in 1977 when the CO2 ppm was what then?

330ppm






I do understand that Pat and I agree that it has increased, the fact is the same kind of freak weather was happening almost 40 yrs ago.
Quoting 115. PTXer:



At least your cisterns should be full, right Pottery?

The've been overflowing for 10 days.....
Just checked my totals for the month, 14.25'' since Monday 10th. About 1/4'' on the 9th.
I don't mind the rain, as I live on a small hill.
But it's these beastly cold temps that are getting to me. Getting down to 70F at night man. It's really terrible !!!

:):))
Quoting RitaEvac:


...the fact is the same kind of freak weather was happening almost 40 yrs ago.
Although, to be honest, it's just happening a lot more frequently now....
Quoting 162. RitaEvac:

Notice in the lower right corner of pic, it mentions ice rinks melting in Anchorage Alaska, just means the jetstream was way north probably bringing record warmth to Alaska and nose diving into the lower 48 and cold extreme weather all the way to Miami with snow. If this were to happen today, people would be running around hollering that the weather is out of control and something is going on.




That was in fact the pattern in 1976-77 A stubborn ridge over the East Pacific/Western NOAM, caused exceptional warmth in Alaska, then the downstream trough drove cold into the Eastern U.S. over and over again. This was and is a common pattern but what was remarkable that winter was how persistent it was.. month after month from August through the first half of February before it gradually broke the rest of February.

I thought this fall might be a 1976 analog. So far I've been wrong until the middle of November. Being right one week does not make me right for the other ten so far.

Havent seen any Sneaux in Miami....

well, save for the 70's-80's Don Johnson style.

: P


I think that with the sudden warming they are expecting in the Northeast, the flooding situation could become very serious, as well as the possible structural collapses due to weight on roofs. I don't recall an area with that much snow, with a sudden warming in such a short time, except in '88.


Quoting 160. Melagoo:

I live 60 miles away in Canada near Hamilton ... we got a sprinkling of snow ... fascinated how conditions can be so perfect for such an extreme snow-machine event like in the Buffalo region
we got maybe 5 cm here wind blew most of it away
Quoting 159. Sfloridacat5:



If it stuck to the roads now that would be something.
But at least S. Florida is flat. The only hills are garbage dumps and on/off ramps to the highways (forgot the bridges).



I remember reading thirdhand that the MIA forecast office issued an advisory for ice on some roads the morning of January 19. It was remarked as the only time they'd ever had to issue an advisory for icy roads in their forecast area.

Quoting 170. Patrap:

Havent seen any Sneaux in Miami....

well, save for the 70's-80's Don Johnson style.

: P


If it happened more often, then it wouldn't be freak weather, now would it.
Quoting tennesseebound:
What happened to global warming? It went away.
colbert
The death toll from the snowstorm in western New York is now 10, according to the Erie County, New York, health commissioner.
Quoting 166. RitaEvac:



I do understand that Pat and I agree that it has increased, the fact is the same kind of freak weather was happening almost 40 yrs ago.
It's not that it did happen, it's the fact of the increasing frequency of it happening. You can ignorantly say that anything has happened before, but until you do a rigorous analysis of the distribution of anomalous events do you get a true picture.
179. bwi
Quoting 31. Patrap:

NASA’s shocking CO2 visualization: will policymakers take action?
By Dan Taylor, Daily Digest News November 20th, 2014



It’s one thing to talk about the impacts of global warming, but a recent NASA video is providing a visualization of just how much carbon dioxide is being dumped into the atmosphere and where it ends up being distributed. As the push for political action on the issue heats up, the video is sure to drive the argument that the CO2 issue is a very real one indeed.

The simulation, which a supercomputer compiled over 75 days at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland to create, shows that most of the CO2 — not surprisingly — is coming from the United States, Europe, and East Asia, according to National Geographic. Once released, the CO2 tends to stay in the Northern Hemisphere, blanketing the entire northern half of the globe with carbon dioxide and largely keeping out of the Southern Hemisphere.

The simulation also shows that the oceans and forests wipe away CO2 emissions during the summer months when foliage is at its peak, only to allow carbon dioxide to once again flood the atmosphere in the winter months.

An estimated 36 billion metric tons of CO2 is released into the atmosphere from human activity like burning fossil fuels. CO2 concentrations topped 400 parts per million for the first time ever in the spring of 2013, and scientists believe that concentrations above 450 parts per million would result in “dangerous” climate disruptions, although some would argue that humanity has already reached that point.


More tools are on their way to study the effects of fossil fuels: NASA launched its Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite in July to track CO2 emissions more precisely. The satellite should be operational in 2015, and it could provide some more insight on just how much effect forests and oceans have in scrubbing the atmosphere of carbon dioxide. Scientists fear that they may have already reached their limits in how much CO2 they can take in.

Scientists are pushing on a global scale to get world leaders to enact policies that would stop global warming in its tracks by capping fossil fuels and increasing the usage of alternative energy sources.

Global warming could cause the rising of sea levels, extinction of species, more violent storms, and more prevalent famines. As a result, lawmakers have pushed for measures now to deal with the problem, but there is still opposition to stricter measures from those who question humanity’s impact on the environment.

Scientists estimate that the Earth’s surface temperature has increased by 0.8 degrees Celsius this century, and about two-thirds of that rise happened since 1980.




Interesting to see the summer (n hemisphere anyway) bursts of CO2 from subsaharan and amazonian fires. Fascinating.
Quoting 178. bwtranch:

It's not that it did happen, it's the fact of the increasing frequency of it happening. You can ignorantly say that anything has happened before, but until you do a rigorous analysis of the distribution of anomalous events do you get a true picture.


Read post 170
Quoting 180. RitaEvac:



Read post 170

Non sequiter
182. vis0
Quoting 116. ncstorm:

you rang? no more Snow/Beer pictures lately but I'll be sure to provide one on Linkin for your enjoyment..

But I did see a snowman made of tumbleweed..El Paso at its finest..



And if one places bubble fluid in the beer can and holes in the direction of the wind and bends the beer can tap just right Frosty the Sudsman will blow bubbles, don't say i sent you i'm a milk & cookies guy...whats in da cookies...choco chips!
I am pretty uneducated about weather terms. Could you explain what you mean by "lake effect snow"? Thanks.
Quoting 154. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't shoot me.



Month to date, the average lower-48 temperature is 39F, on par with 2000 for the coldest going back to 1958. While many locations are warming up right now, upcoming cold shots should lead to little change of this value. November 2014 should end up as one of the coldest on record in the United States.





December 2000 was a VERY cold December in the Eastern U.S. January-February 2001 were not notably cold.

Also interesting to note that Nov 2000 was the coldest but was bracketed by two of the warmest in 99 and 01.
Quoting 183. tealady:

I am pretty uneducated about weather terms. Could you explain what you mean by "lake effect snow"? Thanks.
Prevailing winds blowing across large bodies of water, such as the Great Lakes, pick up moisture to saturation and as it encounters land it rises and adiabatically cools, leading large amounts of snow along coastlines. The band of snow doesn't go inland very far since it's not driven by a baroclinic system. But in the small area that gets snow, it can be a lot.
186. vis0

Quoting 155. Dakster:



Imagine what it would get if Miami got 1" of snow.
a lot of people with nose rashes from sniffing the salt contaminated snow? ...where's my durum "wheat" roll
Launch date: December 4th, 2014

Go Delta 4, GO Orion !!!




Orion Batteries Installed, Live Sky Test Complete
Posted on November 20, 2014 at 3:41 pm by Steven Siceloff.


The teams working to ready Orion for its flight test on Dec. 4 are making progress preparing the spacecraft for its first trip to space. At Space Launch Complex 37 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida, engineers installed Orion%u2019s batteries today, completing a critical step in the final preparations process. Because the spacecraft%u2019s batteries have a limited lifespan, they are installed as close to launch as possible. On Wednesday, engineers also completed testing the communications links between the Orion spacecraft and the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) system in an evaluation known as a live sky test. NASA%u2019s TDRS network will be used to send commands to Orion during the flight test and receive data from the spacecraft.

Ahead of Orion%u2019s voyage, NASA is also sharing information about different elements of Orion and the flight test. The flight test will examine all sorts of systems on the spacecraft during its uncrewed test, including the heatshield. The vital armor protecting against searing hot plasma as the spacecraft enters Earth%u2019s atmosphere, the heatshield for this test is expected to experience temperatures around 4,000 degrees F as Orion enters the atmosphere at 20,000 mph. The speed will help engineers evaluate how Orion endures returning from deep space destinations in the future when astronauts are on board.


7 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area. Looks like our rains come Monday and Tuesday.
Quoting 183. tealady:

I am pretty uneducated about weather terms. Could you explain what you mean by "lake effect snow"? Thanks.
cold air below freezing 25f or lower crossing long fetches of open warm water 35 degrees or higher of any of the grt lakes in north America
Quoting 190. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

cold air crossing long fetches of open water of any of the grt lakes in north America
Howdy Keep...I apologized earlier today about yesterdays comment..I was irate about what was said about Doc.
193. vis0

Quoting 162. RitaEvac:

Notice in the lower right corner of pic, it mentions ice rinks melting in Anchorage Alaska, just means the jetstream was way north probably bringing record warmth to Alaska and nose diving into the lower 48 and cold extreme weather all the way to Miami with snow. If this were to happen today, people would be running around hollering that the weather is out of control and something is going on.


Or  it could mean that GCS began oh 50 + yrs ago and people little by little are taking note of it be it just talking of it in non scientific manners (at the coolers) cause its a more important topic now as these fluctuations happen more often. (GCS= Global Climate Schizo 1950s through ~2100 AD afterwards its schizo with a mean trend towards only warming but that's only my science not physics) now back to measuring feet of cats n dogs...
Quoting 154. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't shoot me.


You're just posting data...
Quoting 154. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Month to date, the average lower-48 temperature is 39F, on par with 2000 for the coldest going back to 1958. While many locations are warming up right now, upcoming cold shots should lead to little change of this value. November 2014 should end up as one of the coldest on record in the United States.



Just curious... is this your analysis or a re-post of something done by Ryan Maue?

Also just make sure to be aware that we do have records for the CONUS before the 1950s. So using a plot of only the last 60 years or so to make a claim in the context of the entire record might be misleading. Especially when the pre-1950 average is lower than the post-1950 average.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
447 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2014

..heavy rainfall and strong storms possible late Saturday night
into Sunday
...

Near term [through tonight]...
high pressure centered across the southern US will remain in place
through the night allowing for one last night of good radiational
cooling conditions. Satellite imagery does show the increase of
mainly upper level cloudiness, and this may limit some of the
cooling. Moreover, surface data from 21 UTC show that near surface
moisture levels have increased markedly in the last 24 hours, with
surface dewpoints back into even the lower 40s for portions of the
Florida Panhandle.
The driest airmass though still remains over
the Florida Big Bend, thus with the very favorable radiational
cooling conditions, will indicate one last night of freezing
temperatures
- though only 30 to 32 degrees in the Florida Big
Bend. Elsewhere, we should manage to stay above freezing.

Short term [friday through Saturday night]...
Friday will be a transitional day as high pressure moves eastward
into the Atlantic and a developing storm system moves eastward
across Texas toward the western Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday this
storm system will be approaching the western Gulf with a large
area of isentropic ascent ahead of it leading to the development
of widespread cloud cover and rain across the Gulf.
The best area
of lift will shift quickly northward as the upper level system
moves into the Mississippi River valley on Saturday night. Expect
rain to increase quickly across the region after sunset with
moderate to heavy rain moving in late Saturday night. On the order
of 1.5 to 3 inches of rain, particularly across western areas
looks possible on Saturday night
with lower amounts off to the
east. The severe thunderstorm threat doesn't appear as significant
as it did yesterday.
The Euro and GFS both show the warm front
reaching the coast around 12z Sunday - slower than in earlier
runs. Thus, the severe threat Saturday night may be confined to
the coastal waters or perhaps right along the immediate coast. In
the short term period, heavy rainfall is the primary threat.


Long term [sunday through thursday]...
at the beginning of the long term period, extensive cloudiness
with widespread rain will be ongoing across the forecast area. The
best synoptic forcing for precipitation will be shifting north of
the area after about 18z on Sunday. There is some concern that a
squall line may move through the region once the warm front
retreats far enough northward
, though the 12z runs this afternoon
have difficulty keeping enough forcing back in the warm sector to
generate these storms. Thus, the severe threat and associated
rainfall after 18z seem a little more questionable.
And while there
should be limited instability and plenty of shear at this time
range, the necessary forcing may be lacking to support any
organized convective activity.


With the system being fairly progressive, expect conditions to
improve steadily by Sunday night as the main upper level impulse
moves into the Great Lakes. This will leave behind a weak boundary
across the eastern half of the forecast area separating an
increasingly dry airmass across the mid south and a more tropical
airmass across north central Florida.
As a secondary impulse
rounds the base of a large scale eastern Continental U.S. Trough on Monday
night into Tuesday, some of the guidance indicates the potential
for scattered showers and storms. As a result, will maintain
chance pops into Tuesday evening before finally clearing things
out by Wednesday morning.


Thereafter, most of the models are in good agreement that the Wed-
thurs timeframe will be dry as high pressure builds across the
southeast. The only notable difference at this point is whether
the airmass will be near normal or much cooler than normal as
suggested by the 12z GFS.
For now, have settled on a compromise
solution between the two with slightly below normal temperatures
across the region on Thanksgiving day.
Quoting 192. hydrus:

Howdy Keep...I apologized earlier today about yesterdays comment..I was irate about what was said about Doc.
its ok hydrus it only takes 5 mins sometimes to do what we got to do

all is good


Quoting 148. tampabaymatt:





Models have been trending wetter and wetter here, which is good news, we need it. We've only had 0.23 up here in the last 5 weeks, all of which fell just a few days ago with the most recent cold front. Its been insanely dry here. Add that to 2 days in a row of hard freezes and the grass and small plants around here are looking terrible. I'm hoping model trends continue.
Quoting 194. ScottLincoln:


You're just posting data...

Data that shows cold air returning to areas that are sick of it already. :)

Quoting 194. ScottLincoln:


You're just posting data...

Just curious... is this your analysis or a re-post of something done by Ryan Maue?

Also just make sure to be aware that we do have records for the CONUS before the 1950s. So using a plot of only the last 60 years or so to make a claim in the context of the entire record might be misleading. Especially when the pre-1950 average is lower than the post-1950 average.

All the information is from Maue. Should've made that clearer in my post (I meant to put "According to Ryan Maue" earlier, not sure why I didn't lol).
lol
The NFL has cancelled the Sunday Buffalo vs Jets Football Game, in Buffalo due to public safety concerns.
In other news, snow is still falling south of the Buffalo area as brisk westerly winds flow across the comparatively warmer waters of Lake Erie. Snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr have been observed throughout the day, and the latest Public Information Statement from NWS Buffalo lists 37" in Wales Center today. That brings their total up to an amazing 85 inches since Tuesday.

Quoting 183. tealady:

I am pretty uneducated about weather terms. Could you explain what you mean by "lake effect snow"? Thanks.


Lake effect snow is created when a cold air mass moves over a relatively warm lake, which adds the heat and moisture needed to create clouds and snow. Orographic uplift is sometimes a factor as well. Anywhere downwind of the great lakes gets the snow. If the winds converge and stay constant, you get what's going on in buffalo right now.
All this Pain because of one single Tropical Cyclone from the overheated Pacific Ocean

I wish there was a way to get paleo data of the Jetstream because I think we'd find that what we've seen the past couple of years is WAYYYYYY out of the ordinary
Eric Fisher Tweet - Record low US tornado count last 2 years !!

Link
Buffalo Bills Defensive End Using a Bobcat to Plow Jim Kelly's Driveway in Buffalo, NY..

Disclaimer: For the fact checkers here at WU, Its from CBS Sports and it looks like Jim Kelly in the video but you never know when it comes to the validity of the video but please feel free to research..
Quoting 196. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its ok hydrus it only takes 5 mins sometimes to do what we got to do

all is good
Mucho Gracias.....I tink its gonna get windy fer many folks..

For West Palm Beach...a Happy Thanksgiving indeed!

West Seneca, NY

"My neighborhood in West Seneca, NY, looks like an underground mole colony" -- Staggering amounts of snow are leaving stunning views across the Buffalo region - MORE: http://abcn.ws/1urWqNS




Quoting 210. hydrus:

Mucho Gracias.....I tink its gonna get windy fer many folks..


gonna be like a hairdryer blowin on all that snow
warm windy air melts snow faster and faster
Quoting 209. Naga5000:


Plot twist:

It's just a Jim Kelly, not the Jim Kelly.


Naga, don't look but there's a stick protruding from your...It's been there for a minute..

and with that I wish you all a good evening..till tomorrow or whenever my ban is up..
Quoting Chucktown:
Eric Fisher Tweet - Record low US tornado count last 2 years !!

Link
Crazy, ain't it?
ex-treme: (ecks-TREEM) adjective (prenominal) 1 : Most remote in any direction; outermost or farthest; either of the two limits or ends of a scale or range of possibilities.
Makes it all the more clear that something has changed in a very profound way, doesn't it?
The recurvature of Nuri and the wavenumber #2 high latitude blocking signature that has followed in its wake is certainly taking a toll on the stratosphere & the polar vortex, with a large surge in 100mb heat eddy flux ongoing. This kind reflection in the stratosphere in the late fall is certainly a nice leap in the right direction for a predominantly -AO regime this winter...

Quoting 215. ncstorm:



Naga, don't look but there's a stick protruding from your...It's been there for a minute..

and with that I wish you all a good evening..till tomorrow or whenever my ban is up..


Oh my jokes were removed. No sense of humor tonight. :(
Quoting 214. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

warm windy air melts snow faster and faster


Jus tink of dee endless possibilities of punctuating dat un Keep's?
Quoting 218. Naga5000:



Oh my jokes were removed. No sense of humor tonight. :(


I saw um,,

were good uns 2's...

: )
Quoting 219. Patrap:



Jus tink of dee endless possibilities of punctuating dat un Keep's?
I don't use that stuff that for you rocket scientists
Quoting 217. Webberweather53:

The recurvature of Nuri and the wavenumber #2 high latitude blocking signature that has followed in its wake is certainly taking a toll on the stratosphere & the polar vortex, with a large surge in 100mb heat eddy flux ongoing. This kind reflection in the stratosphere in the late fall is certainly a nice leap in the right direction for a predominantly -AO regime this winter...




Somehow I see a bunch of Big ARCTIC HIGH'S Dominating the East to S'east downstream.

Wunderul

Quoting 217. Webberweather53:

The recurvature of Nuri and the wavenumber #2 high latitude blocking signature that has followed in its wake is certainly taking a toll on the stratosphere & the polar vortex, with a large surge in 100mb heat eddy flux ongoing. This kind reflection in the stratosphere in the late fall is certainly a nice leap in the right direction for a predominantly -AO regime this winter...


Indeed...Mom is going to open another can of whipas on us.
Quoting 221. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I don't use that stuff that for you rocket scientists


Well, u can't blame this lost Titan to me Keep as I was less den 3 weeks old here, but I have been alive for every manned Spaceflight since I was born Jan 15,1960.

Conceived in April 59', so theres the Elvis Hip/Greatest Gen Gene thing too .

: P
Lol.What I said is true though.Well nothing on my end to talk about besides more cold.Where is the snow..
Quoting 221. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I don't use that stuff that for you rocket scientists


So, now I'm a Rocket Scientist.


NWS locally swinging into action wording for the next round of weather a coming in.


Orleans Parish Severe Watches & Warnings

NOAA Weather Radio

Coastal Flood Advisory

Statement as of 3:31 PM CST on November 20, 2014
...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to 6 am CST Sunday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal Flood Advisory...which is in effect from noon Saturday to 6 am CST Sunday.

* Coastal flooding...along east facing shores from Bay of St Louis Mississippi to the mouth of the Mississippi River...including Lake Borgne...the Rigolets and Chef Menteur Pass.

* Timing...during the daily high tide to occur Saturday night.

* Impacts...tides 1 to 2 feet above normal which may result in minor flooding of access areas near the coast outside the hurricane levee protection system.

.Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.
Sunny and 81 degrees in Honolulu, Hawaii. Trade winds are kicking.
Quoting 194. ScottLincoln:


You're just posting data...

Just curious... is this your analysis or a re-post of something done by Ryan Maue?

Also just make sure to be aware that we do have records for the CONUS before the 1950s. So using a plot of only the last 60 years or so to make a claim in the context of the entire record might be misleading. Especially when the pre-1950 average is lower than the post-1950 average.


Interesting chart, Scott, to put it in perspective, it looks like the all time low for November was 1911, no new record lows set in 103 years.

For a global perspective let's look at the Take a look at the history of global temperatures.
Quoting 225. washingtonian115:

Lol.What I said is true though.Well nothing on my end to talk about besides more cold.Where is the snow..
Exactly!
Quoting 88. LongIslandBeaches:



Washi, I have always found the Korean war Memorial in DC to be one of the most hauntingly beautiful works I've ever seen. Particularly at night when the lights are on.. wow.
It can also get foggy down near the tidal basin at night.It adds to the spookiness of the statues :).
Quoting 226. PedleyCA:



So, now I'm a Rocket Scientist.

Just be careful what kind of shirt you put on..........
28/64 today with a freeze duration of 11 hours 40 minutes. More than 20 hours of freezing and below with this cold snap. Down to 45 already but the dew point is well above freezing.
This must be one of the great spots for lake effect snow. 1,050 feet higher than lake Erie and less than 10 miles away. Good for uplift.
Quoting 231. washingtonian115:

It can also get foggy down near the tidal basin at night.It adds to the spookiness of the statues :).
When I lived in DC on summer Sunday mornings I would buy a cup of coffee and a newspaper and usually just walk another block down to the front of the Library of Congress and relax, but if I felt like walking further this was my favorite place,

kind of spooky even without the fog.
Quoting 235. guygee:

When I lived in DC on summer Sunday mornings I would buy a cup of coffee and a newspaper and usually just walk another block down to the front of the Library of Congress and relax, but if I felt like walking further this was my favorite place,

kind of spooky even without the fog.
My favorite place in D.C has to be the steps facing the memorial bridge.It is a nice view of the Patomac.Its best to go on Fall and spring days when its not very hot or cold outside and while the cherry blossoms are out its nice too.
Quoting 236. washingtonian115:

My favorite place in D.C has to be the steps facing the memorial bridge.It is a nice view of the Patomac.Its best to go on Fall and spring days when its not very hot or cold outside and while the cherry blossoms are out its nice too.
That would have meant driving and losing my precious parking spot so I would just hang out in the neighborhood, but thank you, if there is a next time for me I will have to check it out.
Wow, it does still rain in Cally. Pouring down in the Raiders/Chiefs Thursday night game. Looks cold, too.
Downtown?

Quoting 228. Stormbugn:

Sunny and 81 degrees in Honolulu, Hawaii. Trade winds are kicking.
Put on TWC to get an update on the lake effect snow and of course I can't get one. Watching a Hitchcock classic instead - "The Birds".
"...Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown and city officials Wednesday recounted stories of rescuers trudging around snow drifts as high as houses to get people to hospitals, of fire stations turned into temporary shelters and police officers delivering special baby formula to a pair of infants.

"It is clear that we are one Buffalo," Brown said.

The Buffalo Bills, who play the New York Jets on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, are seeking the public's help to clear an estimated 220,000 tons of snow from Ralph Wilson Stadium, the team announced on its website. The helpers will be paid $10 an hour, plus game tickets if they work a certain number of hours.

Buffalo prides itself as "The City of Good Neighbors."

"Buffalo itself, known as a city of neighbors, has come together and shown a real sense of community and neighbor helping neighbor, which is always good to see," New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told reporters..."
Link CNNUSA Buffalo braces for more snow
242. vis0
CREDIT:: aviationweather.gov
SUBJECT:: waiting for (circulating) el nino
TYPE:: IR (B&W)

View at utube or new window for actual dimension 1756x912.


►Esperando El Niño◄Sp|En►waiting for the boy◄ Don't be surprised if the NY Post on Dec 24th has a similar headline IF rain seems likely in CA and its a slow news day.
"Across Buffalo and especially in its southern and eastern suburbs, people were reeling from the storms that by Thursday evening had claimed 10 lives. At least one nursing home was evacuated. Roofs were buckling. And with a state of emergency declared by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, rescue crews from as far away as Long Island were converging to help the area dig out....

An assisted-living home in West Seneca was all but buried by a storm in western New York that left at least eight dead....

An abandoned car in front of Ralph Wilson Stadium, the Bills%u2019 home. Players were not able to practice because of the storm....

Bills Get Snow Day and Logistics Headache . .

On talk radio, listeners called in to trying to locate friends or relatives who had missed appointments for dialysis. Alongside snowbanks 10 feet high, people dragged sleds laden with beer....

Link NY Times
wow...
"Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
858 PM EST Thursday Nov 20 2014

Synopsis...
significant lake effect snows will continue through tonight and Friday morning before starting to weaken later in the afternoon on Friday. The lake snows will end altogether Friday night as high pressure passes by to the south of the area.

Much warmer air will arrive over the weekend and into early next week along with rain showers at times...potentially bringing a flood risk to areas which were buried by lake effect snow.

Temperatures will then turn colder again for the second half of next week.
245. vis0
Quoting 201. Patrap:

Jets-Bills game will not be played Sunday in Buffalo

Quoting ###. vis0
J-E-T-S vs S-N-O-W will be  Monday at 7 p.m. ET at Detroit's Ford Field, jetstreamed?
The ECMWF EPS weeklies look disturbingly cold across the East in mid-December, with 850mb temperatures 20-25C below average. Obviously that's in the long range, but I thought it was incredible enough to post regardless.
Quoting 222. Patrap:



Somehow I see a bunch of Big ARCTIC HIGH'S Dominating the East to S'east downstream.

Wunderul


Quoting 223. hydrus:

Indeed...Mom is going to open another can of whipas on us.


I happened to mention on the blog probably about a week or so ago (if I'm correct) in reference to the Lezak Recurring Cycle & the natural behavior of Alaskan Omega Blocks, overall lower heights off of the predominant GOA/ Aleutian low were being implied to go into the western US in the long ranges. Also, the MJO thanks to the weakened Walker Cell, should propagate at a rapid pace thru the Eastern Hemisphere (possibly faster than indicated by the extrapolation of GFS data as shown below), this should induce a retraction of the Pacific Jet and low Atmospheric Angular Momentum that's usually associated with troughing on the west coast...


Once the MJO encroaches on the Pacific, the pattern more than likely will turn colder once again. Cody's mention of the cold being projected in the ECMWF weeklies is likely an indication of this eventual shift in mean tropical forcing into a favorable state for cold shots into the US...



On another note, I'm impressed by the verification of Cohen's Siberian Snowfall Advance Index research thus far. As the jet wavelengths continue to grow, I would anticipate we would see a progression towards a significant -AO state, especially upon following a major stratospheric warming event, but uncertainty lies in the details of timing & intensity of such an event, however, on our continued course, the DJF tri-monthly 500mb would be full of high latitude blocking...


Note the substantial similarities in Cohen's research & the November SLP pattern thus far this yr. It's always nice to see research in scientific literature verify in real-time...





Image found on page 5427 in a paper titled" Linking Siberian Snow Cover to Precursors of Stratospheric Variability" with Judah Cohen as one of the co-authors.
Link

Even the global SSTs are also consistent w/ a strong Northern Hemisphere snowpack, ( ENSO, cooler than normal water embedded within KOE/N Pac current ( PDO), warm water in & around the GOA, etc..) the Atlantic SSTs in particular are nearly indistinguishable from the actual correlations. Quite amazing actually...




The regressed 500mb pattern (w/ 1 month lead for Oct N hem snowpack) is at the very least equally similar to how the first half of this November has played out..




Additionally, I recently threw together some North Pacific & Atlantic SST analogs & certainly not to my surprise, there is a potent -NAO signal showing up in the DJF 500mb ...
I notice that the winds at KCOF are still out of the north, typical blown forecast for the onshore wind return. When the cold high drifts this far south and there is no strong low to the south to force a good gradient the drainage flow usually wins out. At least the dew points have risen 10-15F from their low values yesterday.

With all that dry air behind the progressive short wave in the southern stream I favor the lower precipitation forecasts vs. the earlier long-range forecasts for the next few days over ECFL , except for the chance that some significant low-topped localized convergence bands could set up over the coast later this weekend south of the cape.

Nice to watch the monster West Coast ridge getting undercut and breaking down, the pattern is looking more El Nino-ish for the southern tier at least. Good night all!
Interesting article on large snow fall events. Buffalo is now #3. Colorado and Alaska have had more snow in a 24 hour period than Buffalo... Would love to see Dr. Masters also report and look into the dispute on Alaska's total.

http://www.adn.com/article/20141120/buffalo-snow- blast-falls-short-disputed-record-set-alaska-1963

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The ECMWF EPS weeklies look disturbingly cold across the East in mid-December, with 850mb temperatures 20-25C below average. Obviously that's in the long range, but I thought it was incredible enough to post regardless.


If it's 20-25C below normal at 850 mb level then how much below normal does that mean at 1000 mb level where we live?
I mean if it was 25C below normal here at sea level in mid December it would be 1F degree at night. Not going to happen.
Quoting 247. Webberweather53:

[...]
... On another note, I'm impressed by the verification of Cohen's Siberian Snowfall Advance Index research thus far. As the jet wavelengths continue to grow, I would anticipate we would see a progression towards a significant -AO state, especially upon following a major stratospheric warming event, but uncertainty lies in the details of timing & intensity of such an event, however, on our continued course, the DJF tri-monthly 500mb would be full of high latitude blocking...
[...]
I believe another factor is the anomalous open water in the Chukchi Sea.

Considering that El Nino conditions may finally prevail, along with the continuance of a positive PDO and the closing off of the Arctic Ocean and Hudson Bay, I am looking for a pattern change to more progressive flow in the next 4-6 weeks.
Early workday tomorrow so I am gone for the night, cheers!
I see in the gfs the possibility of another cold wave in the Florida Keys prior to Thanksgiving .... upper lip Buffalo ... I have a good friend from there in our office.

Our temps have moderated - back in the 70F's
From the Key West NWS discussion ....
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 20TH...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...
THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54F WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

warming winds building rains

Watching this unfold from the deep south (Georgia) Its as if an avalanche moved across this area! That is the only way I can mentally rationalize driving through an area with little to no snow and encountering 5-6 feet all of a sudden. Its like an isolated thunderstorm in the summer dropping 2" of rain on you, but your neighbor doesn't get a sprinkle;however, in this case the evidence sticks around:-)
I live in the Tampa Bay area, and the past two nights it has dropped into the 40s which is shocking for those that grew up here. I'm from Chicago and know better ....

It has created enough anxiety at a local TV station that for the past two mornings they have declared repeatedly "freezing weather in ALL 50 states!" .... I hate to be the one to inform them that Hawaii is one of those 50 that they keep referring to. .... figures that it is a Fox affiliate .... dummies!
Good morning.

I don't know if is only me but the Levi Cowan Tropical Tidbits site is not working this morning.
Tropicsweatherpr, good morning, I just tried Levi's site and I got 'page error screen---I'm sure he will have it back up and running asap.
"Places to visit before they disappear!"

"Whether it's the rising sea levels, desertification, torrential monsoons or melting glaciers, climatic change is rapidly altering the landscape of our planet. Here are a few of the world’s most scenic places that could disappear in the next few decades."

It seems that the mass media, or the media for the masses, are finding some reason to post about planetary climatic problems based on the statement above.
Here's the link.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/article/places-to -visit-before-they-disappear/ss-BBeRWl4

Link
Quoting 237. guygee:

That would have meant driving and losing my precious parking spot so I would just hang out in the neighborhood, but thank you, if there is a next time for me I will have to check it out.
Parking is always troublesome in D.C which is why I only drive the car when it's very cold outside or raining/snowing.
suspect area just east of leewards. wet no doubt
Big Island of Hawaii has 2 peaks, both over 13,000 feet. Technically they are correct, but it is a stretch. I did some work at Parker Ranch in the early 1990's. It is pretty high in elevation. Perfect weather. 70's days, 50's nights.

Quoting 256. CaptainComet:

I live in the Tampa Bay area, and the past two nights it has dropped into the 40s which is shocking for those that grew up here. I'm from Chicago and know better ....

It has created enough anxiety at a local TV station that for the past two mornings they have declared repeatedly "freezing weather in ALL 50 states!" .... I hate to be the one to inform them that Hawaii is one of those 50 that they keep referring to. .... figures that it is a Fox affiliate .... dummies!
Quoting 252. guygee:

I believe another factor is the anomalous open water in the Chukchi Sea.

Considering that El Nino conditions may finally prevail, along with the continuance of a positive PDO and the closing off of the Arctic Ocean and Hudson Bay, I am looking for a pattern change to more progressive flow in the next 4-6 weeks.
Early workday tomorrow so I am gone for the night, cheers!


I would also like to add that if you extend the monthly regressed 500mb for a high October Northern Hemisphere snowpack thru March, the pattern that is revealed looks like a ton of fun, especially in February...



Apart from the 500mb signature, the reason I mention Feb is because if you look at all the NESIS snowstorms & take into account the current ENSO state (Warm Neutral-El Nino), February has more NESIS snowstorms than every month of winter combined. That should tell you something about how El Nino winters usually behave on the eastern seaboard, especially for the northeastern US & mid-Atlantic...
back in the early 80s i hiked up mauna loa made a snowman in hawaii photo in my photo section
Quoting 256. CaptainComet:

I live in the Tampa Bay area, and the past two nights it has dropped into the 40s which is shocking for those that grew up here. I'm from Chicago and know better ....

It has created enough anxiety at a local TV station that for the past two mornings they have declared repeatedly "freezing weather in ALL 50 states!" .... I hate to be the one to inform them that Hawaii is one of those 50 that they keep referring to. .... figures that it is a Fox affiliate .... dummies!
Showing your own ignorance, not FOX's. People snow ski in Hawaii.
263. Webberweather53
Very informative.I'm surprised you haven't started your own blogs up yet.
Good Morning. Always watching the weather carefully for some reason or another. In the middle of major roof repairs at the house the last few weeks (with great weather in Tallahassee with little rain) and they discovered damage to the roof trusses at the top of the ceiling last week. I put them on notice of some rain for this coming weekend (the roof has been tarped with the holes-open ceiling for two weeks) on Monday and they rushed the truss work the last two days. Finally finished that part yesterday and have started re-roofing and the tarp came off. Now we wait for the inside insulation next week before dry walling up the living room up again.

The open beams inside the house, and no insulation, made for a few extremely cold days inside the house the last several days with temps from 25-35 overnight; we were basically living in the bedrooms (along with the dog) and space heaters earlier this week..........So glad to see the temps moderate again for a few days until the insulation goes up again on Monday ..........................:)
fox is owned by an aussie aussies want us to be divided so their country becomes a stronger power while we do nothing and flutter do you know what the aussies do with their illegal aliens put them on an island jail cruel people
Quoting 263. Webberweather53:



I would also like to add that if you extend the monthly regressed 500mb for a high October Northern Hemisphere snowpack thru March, the pattern that is revealed looks like a ton of fun, especially in February...



Apart from the 500mb signature, the reason I mention Feb is because if you look at all the NESIS snowstorms & take into account the current ENSO state (Warm Neutral-El Nino), February has more NESIS snowstorms than every month of winter combined. That should tell you something about how El Nino winters usually behave on the eastern seaboard, especially for the northeastern US & mid-Atlantic...



I can tell you that as Wash says start blogs about these topics as you know a lot.

Apart note=Dont forget to post at S2k as we are waiting for your always very good posts there.
did you see who the republicans put in charge of our science policy? gw deniers. i have moved into neos side of the court. the water is rising.
It looks as if a very rare event is on the way for early next week rain wise across C FL and maybe even S FL as it appears the GFS is slowly catching up to the Euro & Canadian models. The Euro has widespread 3" to 5" of rain across C FL while the Canadian has 4" to 6" across the area.

Personally I think 1.5" to 3" is a lock with this event early next week with some totals higher in areas where thunderstorms continue to train in off the Gulf. It just amazes me how far behind the GFS has fallen compared to some of the other models.


The reason why the Euro & Canadian has such high rainfall totals across the area is this these 2 models below are deeper with the 500mb trough as to where the GFS is more broad with it and a little further north.

Euro


Canadian



Now look at this Canadian precip accumulation very impressive and unheard of for November.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 266. washingtonian115:

263. Webberweather53
Very informative.I'm surprised you haven't started your own blogs up yet.
Quoting 269. Tropicsweatherpr:



I can tell you that as Wash says start blogs about these topics as you know a lot.

Apart note=Dont forget to post at S2k as we are waiting for your always very good posts there.


Sure thing... I always like to make my blog posts into a virtual novel, lol, so it would definitely take me a while (several weeks?) to write one, but I should have plenty of time to do so in Dec...
274. vis0
Q:: If storms went up north (magenta arrow in img) then off SW Canada turned and road the CA coast, since El Nio ingredients are there but not circulating could this still be an El Nio creation?

Since this precipitation is not arriving in a stream (as pineapple express) then i said it can be called a digital El Nio though it might be a form of El Nino Modoki?  

If you've read my blog and understand "ml-d" read on, otherwise read only above or go to next comment don't want to burden your brain.
Here my explanation:: (i called  it jokingly in a blog last year Digital El Nio as i state any oscillation lower than the ml-d settings (for El Nio that means lower than a moderate El Nio) cannot break through the ml-d influence but can go around it and since there is obviously energy waiting to be taped (el nino ingredients) nature is adapting by sending the moisture in a curve or directly under the "ml-d AOI" (search "ml-d, AOI, nyc") via GoMx as one saw last week with the looong plum feeding the front that stretched from Mexico to Canada..

(i fully understand it can also happen NATURALLY and has over the last
hundred million yrs or so (as long the topography look as it is today)
but i think in this case its ml-d influenced)
Quoting 265. PensacolaDoug:

Showing your own ignorance, not FOX's. People snow ski in Hawaii.
A bit harsh considering it is still November. I posted this a couple blogs ago, here it is again, the Mauna Kea forecast. That is where I would look first for the coldest HI temps.
Quoting 275. guygee:

A bit harsh considering it is still November. I posted this a couple blogs ago, here it is again, the Mauna Kea forecast. That is where I would look first for the coldest HI temps.



This isn't a site for thin-skinned people. Lots of folks on this site take cheap-shots at FOX. If you're going to do it, you ought to at least know what you're talking about.
Quoting 276. PensacolaDoug:




This isn't a site for thin-skinned people. Lots of folks on this site take cheap-shots at FOX. If you're going to do it, you ought to at least know what you're talking about.


Actually compared with the invective and bile spewed in the comments sections of most news articles, this site is pretty tame.
Quoting 243. Chicklit:

"Across Buffalo and especially in its southern and eastern suburbs, people were reeling from the storms that by Thursday evening had claimed 10 lives. At least one nursing home was evacuated. Roofs were buckling. And with a state of emergency declared by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, rescue crews from as far away as Long Island were converging to help the area dig out....

An assisted-living home in West Seneca was all but buried by a storm in western New York that left at least eight dead....

An abandoned car in front of Ralph Wilson Stadium, the Bills%u2019 home. Players were not able to practice because of the storm....

Bills Get Snow Day and Logistics Headache . .

On talk radio, listeners called in to trying to locate friends or relatives who had missed appointments for dialysis. Alongside snowbanks 10 feet high, people dragged sleds laden with beer....

Link NY Times




I'm wondering why roofs are buckling when Western NY code (sensibly) requires they be able to support 50 pounds/square foot. This comes out to ten inches of liquid water or 150" of the powdery snow this event produced. Water equivalents were about 15:1 which I read is on the low side for lake effect.
The meridonal distortion of the jet stream is linked by Dr. Francis to a warming Arctic, but by the Stanford group linked below, also to persistent, anomalous surface warmth near the Gulf of Alaska. A young researcher who dubbed the blocker, the “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” appears in a short video illustrating that inference here:

http://news.stanford.edu/news/2014/september/drou ght-climate-change-092914.html

Certainly, these phenomena are deeply implicated in the CA drought. I use Sacramento, in the heart of the Central Valley, as a proxy. Their ten year precipitation is off 17% from the thirty year average of 21.2 annual inches. The season begins in rainless July. Backing from the present, their past three seasons gave them 10.4, 16.5, and 13.1 inches. Last spring, both the federal and state irrigation systems eliminated all nominations to agriculture from Bakersfield to Red Bluff—where half of US fruits and vegetables are cultivated. Hatchling smolts were trucked to the sea, while wild fish ran a gauntlet of overheated decimated rivers to their estuaries. In the 1976-77 drought, massive transfusions to California were effected from the Lower Colorado. Now, Las Vegas is struggling to complete emergency access tunnels into Lake Mead, at historic low. I wrote at Real Climate last spring, that this threat is no over the rainbow and into the next century speculation—this wolf is right at the door of one-in-eight Americans. A sure sign that the problem is lifting, would be an absence of any unusual cold in Atlanta, or Great Lakes snow events, early in this rainy season. As of today, eight days past the 1/8th normal rain date, Sacramento stands at 1.29 inches, or 38% of normal rain.

Here, FYI, is the recent write up which appeared in the Nation’s Capital, which mentions the prior post by Dr, Masters.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2 014/11/20/theres-growing-evidence-that-global-warm ing-is-driving-crazy-winters/

Also, for any who don’t link to this resource, the jet archives below, permit one to watch, particularly in Dec.-’13, and Jan.-’14, just how this “Triple R” can devour almost any configuration of upper flow from the Eastern Pacific, while letting almost zero moist air through.

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/jetstream_model_fc st.html

Finally, for true deep-divers, Bon Tisdale is an idiosyncratic, indefatigable climate contrarian with an encyclopedic knowledge of the Pacific. This short piece on recent El Nino happenings includes a discussion of “the Blob,” or the warm spot in eastern extra-tropical Pacific, and its recent wane. If you get that far, there are worthy graphics and discussion of sub-surface water temperatures about 4/5 down the comment thread to Bob’s post.
george 169 -- I was a young staffer at precursor to DOE doing nightly write-ups to the WH on possible nat gas shortages, in Fall, 1976. Didn't know an isobar from a barracuda. (We had experienced major Midwest employment dislocation from shortages the prior winter, and a party-shift transition was in-play.) Gradually, week by week, my little incidental blurb migrated from a page nine after-thought, to a foreign-to-me meteorological headline, @ page one above fold.

Jump to this: Wed., I'm all day at the Power Commission, taking notes as they build a record to commandeer gas from here to there, which they ain't by law allowed to do, and for two hours attorneys query the Long Term Forecast Commander from NOAA. He says, A) " ~Atlanta gets 5 days a winter w/mean below freeze, while they've had 38 so far, and we're not half way thru it": & B) "for ten days out, on fifty-fifty calls as to warm v. cold, we bat 55%". So, the universal inference is: basically God, the weather-Whim, or the Gnomes who feed the Planetary Wave, RANDOMLY decide anew, every few days, about these mega-trend matters. It's a toss of a coin. We just happen to be getting 38 straight "Heads." This is what the gas guys think, and they are deciding whether to throw folks out of work today, to minimize chance of residential loss of continuity in the late season (at one point in that Jan. '77 madness, I actually took a call from Brooklyn Union, advising they were gonna drop the Empire State Building, four out, and, "whadayah think about them apples?")

Now, cut to two nights before the new President dons has cardigan by the fire, to admonish the nation to turn down their thermostats. We were trying to build a data field to measure that one, and some poor devil of my minor rank had been compiling metro analogues for our hasty, pre-speech clipper-v.-burn baseline. So, I'm in the stairwell at Camp Springs, waiting for their work product and smokin Winstons, and I ask this similarly stationed Camel-smoker, off hand like--"how can heads come up 38 straight times?" And within minutes, he is showing me monthly anomaly charts from the Pacific dating back to August. Concentric nested circles stuff. Blue-print sized page flips. More nested circles, swelling, and looking more menacing. October--a Texas sized well of low pressure builds out by Hawaii. Nov., and that monster only grows. looks like it might well eat half the Big Ocean. By the December chart--I am flat terrified. Whatever I am looking at, it sure as Hell is NOT a sequential coin toss. And, having been a winning casino card counter in younger days, I sure could not grasp how anyone could look at five successive months of steadily building atypicality, and attach to that sequence the notion of "random".

Decades later, I heard from Mike Mann that some fellah who studies fish catches in Washington State had given a name to a "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (which Richard lindzen belittles with his quip that "It's not decadal. not an oscillation, tho it is of the Pacific"), and that 1976-77 was all about "the Pacific reorganizing itself"--or what came to be call the "Great Climate Flip". To this day, though my curiosity abounds, I have yet to read a coherent version of what exactly any of all this is really all about. You?