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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

New KatrinaBlog, and No TD 15!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:26 PM GMT on September 02, 2005

New Blog started

Hello all, I have created a new blog titled KatrinaBlog for all Katrina-related discussions. I plan to post all Katrina-related material to both this blog and to my regular JeffMasters blog, but ask you to use the JeffMasters blog for only non-Katrina related subjects. On both blogs, I ask you to keep it positive and use it for discussions. Avoid making posts that more properly belong in a chat room (for example "How are you today?", etc). In the future, we plan to create a multi-threaded blog to allieviate the congestion that has developed on my blog, but that software will take several months to write. Thanks for all the great material many of you have posted, and I'm sorry I haven't had more time to read all your comments and respond directly to many of them!

No TD 15 yet

Yesterday, I was quite concerned about the possibility of a
significant threat developing from a tropical wave spinning midway between Africa and the Leeward Islands, near 8N 35W. This morning, the deep convection around the low has diminished, and Quikscat winds have fallen to about 20 knots surrounding the storm. This tropical wave is not a threat to develop for the next day or two. Why did this wave fall apart? Steering currents pushed the wave somewhat south of due west, bringing the low so close to the equator (latitude 8N) that the low was unable to use the Earth's spin to help it maintain its own spin. The Coriolis Force--that component of the Earth's spin pointing in the vertical direction--is zero at the equator, and a tropical system cannot maintain the spin needed to develop if it ventures too close to the equator, since a portion of the Earth's spin is required. I have never seen a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic spin up south of 8N.

Nevertheless, this wave needs to be watched the next few days as it tracks westward towards the Leeward Islands. When the wave moves a bit further north two or three days from now, the low wind shear and warm waters should be conducive to develpment.

Development by the Bahamas
An area of concentrated clouds has developed east of the Bahamas, but the wind shear is too high here now for any tropical development to occur. However, the shear will decrease over the next few days so that by Sunday or Monday tropical depression could develop in the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda. This development would occur at the tail end of a cold front that is expected to push off of the East Coast. The latest GFS model run shows that any storm that develops in this area would move slowly, and might take an erratic and unpredictable path.

Tropical Storm Maria
Maria is of little concern. She is a weak system tracking over open ocean, with little chance of impacting any land areas.

Wunderphotographer mudkow60 also happens to be a helicopter pilot rescuing people stranded in Mississippi. He's posted a few amzazing photos below, and adds on one of the captions, "THANKS FOR ALL YOUR RESPONSES. SORRY I HAVE NOT REPLYED.... I AM REALLY BUSY AT WORK.. THANKS."

Remember to post comments about his photos and other Katrina-related material to the KatrinaBlog. It is quite possible that creating a second blog like this won't work; if enough of you find this second blog to be a bad idea, we'll scrap it and go back to the original single blog. Thanks.

Jeff Masters
West of Gulfport
West of Gulfport
Waveland, where the eye hit. THANKS FOR ALL YOUR RESPONSES. SORRY I HAVE NOT REPLYED.... I AM REALLY BUSY AT WORK.. THANKS.
West of Gulfport
West of Gulfport
I think this was around Pass Chrisitan or Waveland, where the eye hit. THANKS FOR ALL YOUR RESPONSES. SORRY I HAVE NOT REPLYED.... I AM REALLY BUSY AT WORK.. THANKS.
My heart is sick...
My heart is sick...
I can not write this without tears comming to my eyes. Taken in a hover while rescuing people off of rooftops in New Orleans.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I think that tropical development of the wave could occur when it moves farther west. Just as it lost its convection, it could gain it again just as fast. As for the bahama possibility, I think it will happen sooner or later. The shear is the only thing holding it back from organizing. I think if it does develop it could either hit the carolina coast or florida coast.
What does everyone think?
just checking in and power is flickering, rats.
think jeffm setting up two blogs is excellent idea.
After td10 history ending up as component of Kat, I don't discount anything in the tropics
so far, the area east of FL is getting stronger convection, of course, that would happen anyway with the heat of the day. I can see the spin in that area, and I agree, it may become organized sooner than later, unless the shear from the approaching trough slows it down....
Accuweather already says there is a low pressure and it looks to be far enough away from the shear to develop. Dr. Masters said "The latest GFS model run shows that any storm that develops in this area would move slowly, and might take an erratic and unpredictable path." Florida may not be the target of this potential depression.

Dr. Masters, what do you think?

WOW...this really amazes me. Looking at the footage of the affected areas. I CANNOT believe this is the good 'ole USA. It looks like some 3rd world country...poverty struck South America or something. Those people are out of control. Shooting at choppers that want to help em and looting. HOW can you steal a TV? What are you going to do with that? Food, water thats different. You can really see the roots of those people down there. Its sad.

They say we cant get to people cause of the water. Dont we as the "most powerful" nation has all terrain vehicles, ones that can hover over water? Dead bodies everywhere. Man, this isnt good publicity for USA.
The area by tomorrow. I did not put the model in motion yet.

Link
whirlwind - please take it to the KatrinaBlog.
Hey Jeff... Mind giving us updates/thoughts in your blog about storms in other basins as well. I don't think I'd be the only one interested in hearing about these storms. Like the cat 5 that was in the west Pac yesterday with the 898 MB pressure. Stuff like that is amazing, and interesting to read, hear about even if it isn't affecting us.
We do have some bloggers in Japan and China... I think that's a great idea.
As for our current tropics.. I see nothing yet that we should worry about. I'm sure we'll have anotgher named storm like Lee, and Maria that won't do anything.. But the next beast is probably a week away. Probably of the Cape Verde variety.
weatherwatcher

does your link update when new models out?
Looks like the shear on Maria is starting to let up and more convection moving towards the center.
I have been reading these posts with great interest from Toronto - and my heart goes out to everyone affected. They say we have our own looters in Canada- the ones who put gasoline up 20 cents per litre overnight! That's about $4.80 CDN per gallon.

I am glad to hear that Maria is unlikely to be threat, looked to me initially that she might be headed for the Hibernia Oil Rigs south of Newfoundland and that would definitely add to the problem
glad to see a seperation of subjects on this blog, it was getting hard to read at times.
Is it just me, or does Maria seem to be more west than the previous coordinates?
It does appear the low of maria is tracking west, and I know these storms this year have not wanted to follow their tracks anyway, I guess they should be adjusting some of the computer models around 2PM...
as of this moment, the computer models show her going NW and already with the 11AM advisory, she was moving west for only a few hours, well lets add 3 more hours to that...
Just an update on the possible Florida development...12Z GFS now shows low pressure more defined off coast of Florida..Link...Kind of sits around off the coast...We will see if this develops by Mon/Tues.
27. WSI
jeff14photos, listen to what Jeff Masters said please...

"On both blogs, I ask you to keep it positive and use it for discussions. Avoid making posts that more properly belong in a chat room (for example "How are you today?", etc)."


Quit polluting the blog with your ramblings and ha ha's.
well weatherguy, my dialup may take some time to load all 48 frames from your link...but I agree...there is some shear that is pretty obvious right now, convection spread pretty far out....but, one we must watch!
I see a circulation east of the bahamas on the accuweather water vapor loop.
on 28th frame....Maria is heading towards warmer waters...I just hope she does turn as forcasted....all day today, that doesn't seem like thats what she wants to do...
u see correctly weatherwatcher....
Anyone notice that the Convections is starting to wrap around Maria A bit more then before?
I need the link to the new 12z GFS model.
38. WSI
Here you go Weatherwatcher007....

Link
Sorry stormy I forget about dial-up. Just something interesting to watch for, but currently shear is very high in that area, but may slacken as the weekend progresses.
Maria computer model forecasts...Link..
Nice link, thanks.
Some models take Maria west instead of out to sea. Intresting
interesting links everyone, thanks so much! Still don't see models showing Maria's westward movement today....but she still has some shearing going on, maybe that will bump her back northward....
only BAMM & BAMD take her west, and that is later in the forecast...come on now, She is moving west right now.....
is there any way that maria heads west?
46. WSI
Been a while since I posted this, but I will remind everyone that my blog is open for people to swap weather links on. I have posted some links there, as have others. It is nice to keep them in once place. Post some of your own, and bookmark others that you don't have. :)
Everyone give odds.

My Perdiction:

Bahamas depression 45%

Maria westward movement continuing 20%

Wave developing 70%
I am no expert, but how can they tell Maria will move more north....she seems to like to hang on that 20...and wind analysis doesn't seem to show what would push her north...she is slowly coming out of her shearing environment....
I'm going to say:

Bahamas 30%

Maria continuing west: 15%

Wave developing 75%
stormdd

link to l92 model

http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=92
last post for stormydee
Ok my odds..lol..
Bahamas: 50%
Maria west: 10%

Wave developing: 50%
Dr Masters,
I will gladly respect your wishes to have two seperate chat rooms, although I would like to point out a few downfalls of this.
1. Others that are watching the tropics due to intrest or concern for their area may not have a complete grasp of how Katrina is going to effect our nation and I think that this was a good area for them to get others inputs. These people will likely not visit the aftermath blog although I could be wrong.
2. Now we have to choose which blog to keep up with or we have to jump back and forth. I think that we are also all aware that as soon as the tropics have a potential threat to North America we will be on top of it.
3. The effects of Katrina will greatly impact any other system that may threaten the N. American landmass this season. Many of our resources have been tied up due to her and people need to be aware of this if they plan on staying home for any storm.
4. The majority of the people on this blog are very intrested in tropical systems from start to finish. Example Katrina. Look how many of us followed XXtd10. We are also just as intrested and concerned about the impact Katrina's aftermath has, which is a direct result of the tropics so I tend to think that they are intertwined.
5. I can not recall someone posting a tropical question and not having it answered or responded too.

In closing I hope that you will consider opening this blog back up to effects of tropical systems as well as the tropics themselves. I think that we all learn from this and I am almost certain that this blog reaches more people than the two seperate blogs will.

I have mentioned my thoughts and have drawn some conclusions about others on this board, if I have mispoken for any one on this board I am sorry.

"The significant problems that we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them"-Albert Einstien

Also please consider resolving this Jeff14photos problem. His silliness is not needed here.

Thanks
StormJunkie
thanks whitewabit. That is for our poss next one....but what about Maria and her westerly track? She seems very persistant to stay westerly today.....
Stormjunkie, I know where you're coming from...but for someone like me in FL, watching TV on Katrina is more than traumatizing and I am faithfully keeping up with the aftermath at home. I think Jeff Masters did good to separate it out because, although I am deeply concerned about Katrina's devistation, I really have no importance to the conversations for the affected people in the gulf. But on this blog, I can focus more on potential threats during the day, and Katrina at night...
I do believe that Maria's predicted forecast will be well west of what they are stating now, but I cannot say that it will effect the US yet...
fok yall. the llc of maria is located to the se of the convection. it is not that far off the nhc track. earlier today the llc was partely exposed so it was easier to determine its location. i do not have an exact location as the navy site is messing up. the mid atlantic trof that will help to possibly spawn a cyclone off the coast of florida is the mechanism that will push this system north and out to sea.

now all major models still have a cyclone forming from the itcz low in the next 72 hrs which falls inline with her getting away from the equator. so still somewhat certain we will be having a system out there in 72+hrs

now the gfs does form a cyclone off the coast of florida and moves it north towards bermuda in its last run. this system would creat a weakness in the building ridge that would take any storm that develops from the itcz low into that weakness and away from land. this scenerio is still uncertain as is the formation of either cyclone
I feel alone in here, am I missing something???
I understand your point Stormy and being a South Easter also I am very intrested in the tropics, but I think that many of the points and discussions that take place when the tropics are slow help us understand what these systems really do. Also creates bonds between many of us. The comunity has just been divided though and the information that all of us get will be reduced now. Tropical or Aftermath.

We will have plenty to talk about if Maria makes it further W than expected.
well, good news poss for me, thanks lefty....I see all that convection being pushed south of the center for now.
stormj, let it go. alot of the people who personally don't like me or u either complained to jeff and unlike steve who has directed his blog towards this jeff decided to take the high road and seperate the blog. thats his opinion and i will just post in both and thats the end of it
the convection is all north of the llc. the llc is on the edge of the convection blob just covered up. it is shear that is pushing that convection to the north of the center and preventing her from strengthing much
Sorry lefty, fell asleep last night.lol.
Well said, Stormydee. I have no trouble visiting both blogs and find this seperation easier to follow.

Thank you also, Catchaser, for your firsthand account. Harrowing.
actually, I have two browsers open, one for the kat conversations and one for this one....but I decided to only input in this one since this PM and from now on because I am speechless as to what has happened over there...but I keep reading....
its cool storm j


the llc is actuall a lil more north and on the eastern edge of the convection. its eaier to see in the vis sat img. i detect a north movement for the past 3 hrs. the only threat to land would be to bermuda and that is a slight chance at any
To break away from the current tropics discussion.. I'm trying to do some research on Hurricane Dog from the 1950 season. I'm not having much luck though. The only info I got was that maximum sustained winds were 185 MPH. And that it was a cat 5 longer than any other storm that didn't get to cat. 5 multiple times. Apparently though, there is no pressure readings. So how can they figure out the winds, but not the pressure? But yea, who thinks this storm might of been stronger than Gilbert?
I posted that message in both lefty. I will leave it up to them now. I think my points are valid though and I think you may be wrong about the ultimate outcome of this. I hope we can get back to one blog with all sides interacting.

Lefty, two days or three days before the wave develops?

What are you thinking about the Florida area?
well ivan developed pretty low 8 or 9n and i know of atleast one atlantic cyclone that developed lower than that. can't remerb the name though will try to find it.

right now the coast of florida is a watch and see situation but i suspect a cyclone will form there and be headed north out to sea.

i see a increase in convection on the itcz low. i don't have all the data cause the navy site is not working but the center of the low might have reformed alittle ne of its previous position something a storm this low would probly do, she might be trying to get re-orginised but i need to look at more data but yes i think based on models a cyclone of some sort will form within 72 hrs
carbo04

link to Hurricane Dog 1951

http://weather.wwltv.com/hurricane/at195104.asp
navy site back up, looks like a new center with a new batch of convection is forming around 10-12n this is about the itcz low

also update on super typhoon nabi pressure is up ti 910mbs and windspeed is now down to 130kts
No, whitewabit. The hurricane dog of 1950, not 1951.
If a new center forms then that changes everything. Could develop much sooner.
Super Typhoon Nabi has prompted two military installations here in Japan to go to a heightened state of typhoon readiness, but otherwise at least here we are not concerned. Mawar was enough! Please feel free to tell me this comment does not belong here, but I would like Steve Gregory's BLOG to come back...I am not sure how to pass it up the chain!
whaT HAPPENED TO STEVES BLOG?
Maybe there is only enough room for two and when Dr. Masters made his second one Steve Gregory's was eliminated?
stormjunkie-I cried ALL DAY yesterday for those people, have prayed all week, but that is all I am able to do, watch, listen, and pray that things get better. I empathize tremendously...but save it for the other blog, which most of us are viewing both anyway....it doesn't fit anyone's lifstyle, including those stuck there....
stormj ur in the wrong blog. u need to open 2 windows and keep track of where ur looking
looks like computer models on Maria keeping her NW track.
Some of us lurk & Don't feel the need to Post every few seconds. Glad to see there's few posts to wade thru for weather info. Thanks Dr M for split blogs & Always Great Tropics Info.
Sorry last post was on other blog. I am so confused.

D. I do not think that people want to accept the gross neglegence of our Govt. and the inbility to see this coming. Not the tragedy. That is evident ot all.

So Lefty no chance maria moves SW after intial Nortward movement?
it does look like the ctr of Maria is starting to pull alittle more north of west now...
I have two window lefty it is just very confusing.
Storm Junkie,
Maybe you could remove your hands from the keyboard for a moment to figure out where you are.

Thanks Dr. Masters.
the llc center of maria is on the eatern side of the convection. if you look at the vis stormj you can almost see it. she has been moving north for the past 3 hrs and will accelerate that direction and out to sea. that is a high confidence forcast and is what all models are saying it will do
here is the models for ts maria. shows model concesus thru 72 hrs

Link
I thought a couple of the lower confidence models took it to the W or SW for a stint?
and the models show a trend of nw or n and out to sea
Models changed greatly since I last saw them.
check out the models tell me what u see

Models
brb u guys. gotta cook some food.
More maria models if anyone interested....Link...Definately going out to sea..
weatherguy03

will Maria reach a cat 1 before losing strength?
Well then that is that. I geuss we wait and see on the Florida area and the wave. Gosh ya'll not much to talk about huh?

Hey we could speculate on what another storm in the gulf would mean or we could take a vote onhow many more landfalling systems we get this year.

How many think we make it to the Alpha names?
SHIPS brings it up to hurricane strenght, as the shear is forecasted to weaken. All other models weaken it, I would say it reaches just under hurricane strenght before dissapating.
the llc of maria is almost exposed and the convection is being sheard . it will be hard for her to strengthen anymore than she has and she will be reaching cold sst soon. the nhc takes her to 60mph and no further. i would be suprised to see her get that high
"The significant problems that we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them"-Albert Einstien

So anything new in the Tropics? Wave needs to gain lat right? Florida area is wait and see?
Lefty do not know which blog this belongs on but you down?
103. WSI
Steve's blog is here...

Link

Not sure why they removed the link on the main page since its one of the most informative blogs on this site.
i am cooking lunch i back on later
I'm starting to think Maria will stay out to sea lefty and stormj. It is the area around Fl and the bahamas that I'm watching in the tropics now. The wave out near the equator is no threat to the US right now but I have an eye on it. Lefty and Stormj what do you think the intensity and track of the area around the bahamas will be IF it develops?
No clue 007. It is very hard to say prior to development. Theory is either out to sea or across Florida.
Is the GA/SC coast a possibility? I think it is because if something develops and the weakness forms near the coast then it would take that track into the area of least resistance.
I still say you won't have a good idea till it forms. Is it possible? yes. It is a wait and see just like the wave.
my tropical anlysis today: maria is strengthening but, is only a threat to Bermuda. The wave that was almost td 15 yesterday has degenerated into an area of scattered clouds. it could reform but, not for a while.
For those that did not see. This is my take.

Dr Masters,
I will gladly respect your wishes to have two seperate chat rooms, although I would like to point out a few downfalls of this.
1. Others that are watching the tropics due to intrest or concern for their area may not have a complete grasp of how Katrina is going to effect our nation and I think that this was a good area for them to get others inputs. These people will likely not visit the aftermath blog although I could be wrong.
2. Now we have to choose which blog to keep up with or we have to jump back and forth. I think that we are also all aware that as soon as the tropics have a potential threat to North America we will be on top of it.
3. The effects of Katrina will greatly impact any other system that may threaten the N. American landmass this season. Many of our resources have been tied up due to her and people need to be aware of this if they plan on staying home for any storm.
4. The majority of the people on this blog are very intrested in tropical systems from start to finish. Example Katrina. Look how many of us followed XXtd10. We are also just as intrested and concerned about the impact Katrina's aftermath has, which is a direct result of the tropics so I tend to think that they are intertwined.
5. I can not recall someone posting a tropical question and not having it answered or responded too.

In closing I hope that you will consider opening this blog back up to effects of tropical systems as well as the tropics themselves. I think that we all learn from this and I am almost certain that this blog reaches more people than the two seperate blogs will.

I have mentioned my thoughts and have drawn some conclusions about others on this board, if I have mispoken for any one on this board I am sorry.

"The significant problems that we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them"-Albert Einstien

Also please consider resolving this Jeff14photos problem. His silliness is not needed here.
Thanks
StormJunkie
Sorry Dr Jeff. I meant to be in the other room with that post.
Storm Junkie
Ditto my last post to you.
Just my opinion.
Thanks Dr. Jeff for splitting the blogs.
I see some activity starting to brew just east of the Bahamas. Is this the same area that the system is expected to form or something else altogether.
Thanks for all you guys do.
Expect an answer in an hour or so Jupiter. Everyone is in the Katrina blog. Maybe ask there.
jupiter, there's an awful lot going on with the trof moving in, hopefully it'll get wept north??? We sure don't want it in OUR neck of the woods...
Thats for sure. I'm just afraid that it is forming to far South to get swept out.
PS Kick some Seminole butt on Monday.
An hour is fine with me. I have all the time in the world.
I even asked the people in the other blog to come answer your question Jupiter. No response.

This is how I understand it though. Same area. Lots of shear right now so no development. Shear will weaken though over the next day or two. Expected to move out to sea, but that is all too hard to tell seeing as how the system has not even formed yet.

Go back and read all of the posts in the blog and you will see most of those questions have already been raised.
Sorry CGHC did come over and respond. Sorry about that mistake.

Why don't you join us on the other side Jupiter?
what is the convection associated with just east of the bahamas? the last few IR frames have shown some considerable convection going on. i thought if this were to develop it wouldn't be until the trof comes southeast of the u.s. coast?? later on this weekend....is this just convection blowing up from divergence, or a weak wave....???anyone?

bahamas 50%
Maria 2%
wave 40%
Well first off , Katrina started off as TD 10 as a strong Tropical Depression in the Middle Atlantic then she fell apart I think over Hispanola. Then it reemerged as TD 12 (There was agreat deal of discussion on Met Boards as to whether NWS (National Weather Service) should have applied the TD 12 Moniker to Katrina ! It was still TD 10 Reformed, and it had been a very strong Tropical Depression !

It reformed about 275 NM (Nautical Miles) from Miami !

Quickly grew to a Cat 1 Hurricane clipped the tip of Florida and was back out the nice HOT Gulf Ocean, with most of its feeder bands intact! Feeder Bands are what make a hurricane get stronger.

I watched Katrina loaf She went further west and further South than anybody would have beieved !

When I saw Katrina drift Further West and More South. I knew It was going to hit No-il Lens or close !!!!

Point is BOTH Dr. Jeff Masters and Steve Gregory were calling for the full evacuation on New Orleans way before the order was given !

About 36 hrs earlier

Wunderground.com
Evolution, accuweather says that it is a tropical low. The NHC says it is a broad area of low pressure. Only time will tell if it develops or not.

A developing area low pressure in the mid levels of the atmosphere is south of Bermuda and will have to watched for slow tropical development this weekend. A frontal boundary off of the southeast Coast extending southwest into the Gulf of Mexico may be the breeding ground for waves of low pressure early next week. High pressure building to the north of this front over the weekend will increase northeast to easterly flow to the north of front and when you combine that with some upper level energy tracking south toward this area, low pressure can be spawned.

-Accuweather
StormJunkie,
I would love to talk to everyone else but I come here to learn more about weather not evacuations, politics and such.
Thanks for the offer. I may pop over there later.
i hav updated my tropical weather blog for south florida. urgent news on latest developments.
18Z GFS in....Compared to the 12Z run, the GFS in not as agressive in developing low near Florida and Bahamas...Link...Confidence in this feature right now is low. We have been seeing the GFS moving back and forth on this, so right now IMO i would give it about a 30% chance of developing. Again we have this weekend to keep an eye on this.
looks like something is in the bahamas now
their is a broad trof of low pressure. it is on the end of the cold front that has slowly moved thru the area. the shear is still to high and we currently have no closed circulation. it will be some time, atleast sunday night, befor that shear slackens an that trof of low presure will have a chance to develop.
WEST ATLANTIC...
A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. THREE
DISTINCT SURFACE LOWS ARE OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
ISOBARIC ANALYSIS...A 1011 MB LOW E OF JACKSONVILLE NEAR
31N77W...1010 MB LOW NEAR 28N70W...AND A 1011 MB LOW S OF
BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST CONNECTS TO THE WESTERNMOST LOW...AND THEN A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW OF THE LOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TWO OTHER
LOWS LIE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW NEAR BERMUDA TO 26N66W. AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WITHIN THE
SAME GENERAL REGION NEAR 30N61W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 24N69W AND
AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 23N-27.5N BETWEEN 63W-74W...PRIMARILY S OF THE
SURFACE FEATURES. THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SAME
NEIGHBORHOOD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN THE GFS RIPS
ONE LOW NEWD INTO THE N ATLC AND A SECOND LOW DRIFTS WWD TOWARDS
FLORIDA (BUT STILL SITTING OFF THE COAST BY LATE WED). THE
ULTIMATE OUTCOME WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE AND IF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTS...SO STAY TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS

From TPC...Definately leftyy we will just have to watch it during this weekend.
Dr. Masters

I tend to agree with storm junkie's take (850gmt 2 sept)concerning multiple blogs. As I am less knowlegeable than the lead bloggers, I tend to follow that crowd where ever they post. I get the sense that many other regulars do the same. My main objective is to keep track of developing systems but all the other information that goes through here is quite good and usually any news report anywhere gets posted, not unlike a major news agency desk.I think Steve's blog site is outstanding as well. If I had to vote I would go with the one blog. As far as Jeff14photos and his ilk, if they don't get fed they don't hang around long. JMO
Federal offices said today that people wanting to help to not attend the impacted sites by Hurricane Katrina and instead make cash contributions to organizations.

Cash donations do allow the agencies to avoid the need to store, pack, and distribute donated goods. The cost to do so becomes prohibitive which is why cash donations are currently being sought.

FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency www.fema.gov) listed the following agencies as needing cash to assist hurricane victims:

- American Red Cross, 800-HELP NOW (435-7669) English, 800-257-7575 Spanish.

- Operation Blessing, 800-436-6348.

- America's Second Harvest, 800-344-8070.

- Adventist Community Services, 800-381-7171.

- Catholic Charities, USA, 703-549-1390.

- Christian Disaster Response, 941-956-5183 or 941-551-9554.

- Christian Reformed World Relief Committee, 800-848-5818.

- Church World Service, 800-297-1516.

- Convoy of Hope, 417-823-8998.

- Lutheran Disaster Response, 800-638-3522.

- Mennonite Disaster Service, 717-859-2210.

- Nazarene Disaster Response, 888-256-5886.

- Presbyterian Disaster Assistance, 800-872-3283.

- Salvation Army, 800-SAL-ARMY (725-2769).

- Southern Baptist Convention - Disaster Relief, 800-462-8657, ext. 6440.

- United Methodist Committee on Relief. 800-554-8583.

132. OBXER
Killdevil i assume you are on the OBX
yea OBXER KDH NC
I think I recall from a past you being in Okracoke?
Anyone heard if they got a chance to use an "Aerosonde" unmanned aircraft on Katrina? Just saw a piece on it on Discovery Channel. If so, I wonder what they've found?

Thanks.
Dr. Masters
I do like having the 2 different sites. It makes it easier to get the tropical weather information only. This does not make me uncaring of what is going on with those affected by Katrina, I go to that site too. I do not come on wunderground just because I love to talk about and watch hurricanes (fascinating as they are). I do it to get the latest information in order to decide what to do because I live in Santa Rosa County, Florida which has been hit by Ivan & Dennis and at least brushed by 2 tropical storms and Katrina all in less than a year. It was difficult reading through all of the comments to find the weather information with one blog and although usually I just read what you have to say, I have found that there is also great information from the people on here as well. BTW, My husband was not going to board up for Dennis, but when I told him that you had predicted Dennis within 50 miles of Ivan's landfall, he boarded up and Dennis came just about right over the top of us. Thanks!
Maria will stay in the open Atlantic due to the broad trough located near Bermuda. This trough will remain stationary for a few days, before being filled in by a ridge of high pressure. There are 2 areas that concern me in the tropics right now. It will take some time for them to evolve. By Labor Day, it will become much more clear what will become of these two disturbed areas of weather.

1) Invest 92L, thought by myself and the NHC to become a depression on Friday, lost its convection overnight Thursday. It has been holding its own as a vigorous wave as it moves Westward, at a low latitude.

Q: What will happen next? A: The system is not deep at this time. It is trapped in the deep Easterly flow across the deep tropical Atlantic. The system is somewhat disorganized and will most likely continue this way until it nears the Leeward islands in a couple of days. By that time, very warm waters, and a weakening East Shear, should allow for this sytem to develop into a tropical cyclone. I anticipate that if this scenario occurs, then we will have a depression just East of the Leeward Islands by Labor Day.

2) The complex are of low pressure at the surface, is located between the Bahamas and Bermuda. The key factor for this system's effects and development is where the deep storm activity persist. Shear is expected to lessen in the next 24 hours. This will allow whatever convection is over this area to possibly organize into a tropical cyclone.

A ridge of High pressure developing over the Eastern US is a strong one, similar to the one we saw turn Jeanne around towards Florida last year. This is why it will be important to watch what area off the Florida East Coast develops, if any. An area within a few hundred miles of our Coast may head towards Florida. While a system closer to Bermuda will be dragged out to sea by the trough moving away from the US.

All of this will be played out in the next 5 days. My graphical forecast is here: (http://Flaweather.com/images/maria.JPG)
i dont like the idea that there could develop a wave there by 8 N 38 or a little further. If it develops it would be a really strong storm

stormtop do you think there is any chance if it develops it would hit my island?
139. Fast5
What's the latest updates on that off the East Coast of Florida?
Anybody heard from STORMTOP?
I kinda miss (his?) firebrand blogging style.
Hope everything is OK. Ya think he got those pictures? Man...
Wishing the best for all involved.

Trey-
KI4ITV
Look for development by Monday
off the Florida east coast. The
NWS offices in Florida agree on
this.
Just looking at satellite pictures this morning, it appears
that there is a pretty good blowup of convection east of
the Bahamas. Concerning the front to move through Florida
and bring high pressure to the east coast, it has moved through Jax as I went to get my morning newspaper and noticed a marked decrease in humidity which made it feel somewhat comfortable outside for the first time since May.
It appears the players for development are coming together.
Hi everybody...

Have been away a few days...attended a funeral in Columbus, Ohio...
What are the latest thought on "Bahama Development" ?
The latest infrared images show what appears to be a lot of syuetrical convection in the past few hours east of the south/central Bahamas.