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New England flooding, air pollution, and the season's first typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:05 PM GMT on May 15, 2006

Major flooding has hit southern New Hampshire, southwest Maine, and northeast Massachussetts today, where more than 10 inches of rain has fallen in the past four days. The culprit is a "cut off low", a large low pressure system over the Great Lakes that got separated from the jet stream on Thursday, and has stayed almost stationary since since then, with no upper level winds to push it along. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the low has drawn copious amounts of moist oceanic air over New England. The rains from this moisture have brought the Warner river at Davisville and the Smith River at Bristol to flood stage this morning. With another 1-2 inches of rain expected across the region today, these rivers should crest several feet above flood stage, with moderate to major flooding. The cut-off low is expected to drift slowly northeastward today and get re-absorbed by the jet stream on Tuesday, which will finally bring an end to the worst of the rains. Howver, the weather pattern over the next week is expected to remain wet over the eastern half of the U.S., and more rain is expected in the Northeast later this week as the jet stream continues to remain in a typical Springtime active pattern.


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts for New England estimated by radar, ending at 8:30am EDT Monday May 15.

Air pollution season is here
May marks the beginning of air pollution season in the U.S., when summertime brings the hot temperatures, high amounts of UV radiation, and stagnant air that can trigger air pollution "Action Days". This week marks the annual observance of Air Pollution Awareness week, and at EPA's request, I will be writing several blogs highlighting air pollution. In particular, I'll discuss why one of NOAA's P-3 hurricane hunter airplanes will be in Texas for air pollution research this hurricane season, instead of flying hurricanes.

Quick intro on air pollution
Today, I'll present a quick summary of what pollutants we're concerned about. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) calculates the Air Quality Index (AQI) for five major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act: ground-level ozone, particle pollution, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. Ozone and particle pollution are the two most serious pollutants in the U.S. Particle pollution alone has been estimated to cause over 20,000 premature deaths the U.S. each year, and 800,000 worldwide (although the exact mortality numbers and definition of "premature deaths" is controversial).

Ozone is a colorless gas composed of three atoms of oxygen. Ozone forms both in the Earth's upper atmosphere and at the surface. Where ozone forms determines whether it is helpful or harmful to your health.

Good ozone naturally forms in the stratosphere, a layer of air about 10 - 30 miles (16 - 48 km) above Earth's
surface. This protective layer shields us from the sun's harmful ultraviolet rays. Without this layer, we would all be blinded and sunburned. Unfortunately, human-created chemicals are destroying this beneficial layer of ozone. Over the South Pole in springtime, the ozone loss is so severe that an "Ozone Hole" forms, letting significant amounts of harmful ultraviolet light reach the surface.

Ozone from the stratosphere sometimes gets transported to the surface, particularly in high mountainous regions. Hikers on Mt. Everest who don't use bottled oxygen can be at risk of death from breathing poisonous levels of ozone near the mountain's summit in some weather conditions.

Bad ozone forms near Earth's surface when the ultraviolet light in sunlight triggers a chemical reaction with "precursor pollutants" emitted by cars, power plants, and industrial sources. These precursor pollutants consist of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic hydrocarbons (VOC). Ozone near ground level is a harmful pollutant. Ozone pollution isn't limited to big cities like Los Angeles, Houston and New York. It's also found in smaller cities like Raleigh, NC and Cincinnati, OH. It can be a problem in rural areas, including some national parks. Ozone and the pollutants that react to form it (NOx and VOCs) can also be carried on the wind to affect air quality in urban and rural areas hundreds of miles away.

Particle pollution is a mixture of microscopic solids and liquid droplets suspended in air. This pollution, also known as particulate matter, is made up of a number of components, including acids (such as nitrates and sulfates), organic chemicals, metals, soil or dust particles, and allergens (such as fragments of pollen or mold spores). Unlike summertime ozone, particle pollution can occur year-round. It is worst in summer, though, when winds are lighter and the air becomes more stagnant.

Particles come in a wide range of sizes. Fine particles are less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter. How small is that? About 1/30th the diameter of the average human hair--so small, you'd need an electron microscope to see them.

Some fine particles can be emitted directly (think of smoke from a woodstove). But most are formed secondarily from complex atmospheric reactions of gases such as NOx and sulfur dioxide (SO2), that are emitted from power plants, industries, cars, buses and trucks. These fine particles are the worst for your health, since their small size allows then to penetrate deep into your lungs.

Inhalable coarse particles are larger than 2.5 and up to 10 micrometers in diameter. Sources of coarse particles include crushing or grinding operations and dust stirred up by vehicles traveling on roads. These particles are not as injurious to your health, as their large size allows them to be filtered out more readily by your nose before they reach your lungs.

Typhoon Chanchu
The season's first typhoon, a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds named Chanchu, has turned north, and is now threatening to strike Hong Hong on Wednesday. Chanchu briefly made it to supertyphoon status on Sunday, when it had 150 mph sustained winds and a 910 mb central pressure. This was good enough for a Category 4 rating on the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale, but not Category 5--which starts at 156 mph. A supertyphoon is defined as any tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific that attains maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. It is not unusual to get a supertyphoon in May, and this last happened in 2004, when Supertyphoon Nida reached Category 5 status with sustained winds of 160 mph. I'll have more on Typhoon Chanchu tomorrow.


Figure 2. Typhoon Chanchu at peak intensity Sunday, with 150 mph sustained winds and a 910 mb pressure.

Jeff Masters
Spicket River Rises
Spicket River Rises
Prime water front property for sale...at a barbain price no doubt
York Beach flooding
York Beach flooding
Mothers Day flooding in York Beach, Maine.

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Jeff with the info about the flooding.....I just wrote about it my blog as well
Here's an interesting weather-related fact on air pollution...EPA determines whether a city is in compliance ("attainment") with the ozone standard based on a 3-year average. EPA made this decision at for Kansas City at the end of 2004. It just happened that 2004 was an amazingly cool summer in Kansas City, much cooler than normal. As a result, ozone concentrations were much lower than average. This abnormal year meant that KC was designated as meeting the standard, even though the attainment was due to an unusual weather condition.

And because the designation is based on a 3-year average, the cool summer of 2004 still affects the designation through 2006. 2005 was a pretty bad ozone season so the odds are that KC will become a non-attainment area once the influence of 2004 is gone.

Link
Anyone have any comments on the wave moving towards the carribean? Looks like it may hold together. Feels good first post of the season. Good to be back.
None of these models show a low developing where the wave is; the NOGAPS does not have a low but it dissipates it at the current time.
That should say "the NOGAPS does have a low"
Thanks for the info just checking Michael are you located in Houston?
No, I live in St. Louis, Missouri (see my blog).
Our invest in the EPac is looking a little better.

The infrared shows little deep convection though (red or yellow areas):



However, it was upgraded to 25 kts, from 15 kts before.
I think it's got a decent shot to form. I will say 35%.
In southern California the air is bad almost all year so most people just ignore the EPA. I am lucky if I lived on the other side of the mountains the air would be a lot worse. Also because of the very high gas (around $3.27) prices are governor has a plan to reduce the gas price by takeing something out of the gas that makes it clearer. This would make are air worse.

Hmm...the east Pacific wave does look a little better organized this morning. It needs some more spiral banding and some deep convection near the center of circulation. I am not sure if it is a fully closed low (hard to tell at the moment). Anyway, its worth watching and I'm giving it a 25% shot.
Welcome back Wombats!
I know what you're talking about. I think it's ethanol they add to gas to make it cleaner. I live in Minnesota. Minnesota is the only state in the nation that requires gas to have 10% ethanol in it, and the state wants to make it 20% by 2010.
Well, it looks like Hong Kong will escape. For a while, it looked like it had a shot at grabbing the #2 spot for "Disaster of the Decade".
Yeah it would have been a catastrophe.
On another topic, shear in the tropical Atlantic is collapsing:

18. Alec
It really is a relief for those folks over there in Hong Kong...hope the models continue to trend eastward...
Good morning everyone! Michael yes the shear is finally giving way. The west Caribbean is forecast to be very favorable for development in 3-6 days.


What is that in The Gulf of Mexico
21. Alec
Yes Levi, the question is, where there be convection there when the shear relaxes?
Here is the discussion on our little Atlantic wave this morning.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. SUSPECTED SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N EMBEDDED IN ITCZ. CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER OVERNIGHT INCREASING IN AMOUNT AND CONCENTRATING NOW FROM 8N-10N WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS.
Well our little tropical wave is forecast to get in there if it doesn't dissipate before then. Also long range GFS still says more waves will follow it in the coming two weeks.
Weather456 are you doing the picture the way I told you yesterday?
26. Alec
Levi, they're also forecasting much more rain for the Yucatan in a week also.
Having trouble with an image 456? Just post the URL.
That is not a tropical wave; it is convection along a cold front. Also, shear is still too high in the Gulf.
30. Alec
I believe its a heavy complex of thunderstorms that have come off Mexico and Texas from last night..
Hopefully it can bring some rain to Florida, but I don't know what direction it's heading.
Yes Alec, that could mean more convective action in the western Caribbean.

Wow that looks cool in the gulf weather456. That isn't a tropical wave though. Also there is more than 40 knots of shear above that thing. Looks realy neat though. I would be scared out of my socks if there was low shear in that area lol.
It's has some pretty impressive convection though.
34. Alec
yes, central and S FL will get rain by tomorrow...hopefully will loosen the fire danger
The GFS has a low where the convection is; however, it only lasts for 24 hours and runs into the Yucatan.
Remember the GFS was forecasting some low to develop off this front and move into Florida? This must be it. That also means the GFS actually got something right for a change.
38. Alec
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND
THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ALONG THE
LINE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. DESPITE A DRY SOUNDING
WITH ONLY 0.70" PWATS...THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THE SHORTWAVE
TO THE SW WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING. THEN
AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST TO OVER SOUTHERN FL AND ENHANCES SEABREEZE
INTERACTIONS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
AND WILL NOT NEED A MORNING UPDATE.
You're telling me that there is actually a warm core low under that blob? Wow! Doesn't seem that convection should survive that well under 40 knots of shear.
40. Alec
right levi..lol GFS: 1 for 10!!!woohoo!!!
Yes, it looks like Florida will get some rain, but it may also get some wind. Looks like part of the system will break off and get moved eastward with considerable velocity. By the time it gets to the Florida peninsula it may have some cyclonic characteristics, though it may not be a classified system.
It would be interesting if the GFS is right and moves that convection into the Yucatan Peninsula. That tail end of the cold front would eventually make it into the western Caribbean. If some convection were to be touched off when the shear lowers....

Just speculation.
43. Alec
If the Gulf was like 88 degrees and low shear, Id be scared......this thing may be close enough to having one of the characterstics of a deppression(heavy rains)...exactly what Central and S FL needs!
It already appears to be splitting in half; the northern half is on the cold front and the southern half appears to be seperate.
Yeah Alec tell me about it. If there was low shear and the SSTs were even the way they are now I would be very scared. That thing looks vicious lol.
Yes Micheal it might be splitting. The low is positioned under the southern half.
47. IKE
The GFS has been forecasting a low to move across southern Florida Tuesday/Wednesday for the last 3 or 4 days.
The 18Z run yesterday has a low (cold core), but none of the more recent runs do.
Yes, take a look at the jet stream map. The entire area of convection got pushed off the mainland very fast. Now, at least part of the system wants to get picked up and taken eastward. If it drifts into the east central Gulf, the waters are quite a bit warmer there.
51. TomP
It's worth pointing out that ozone pollution has been dropping pretty dramatically and steadily in this country for the last three decades.

http://tinyurl.com/nuy6a

Alec I can do better than that lol. Just teasing.

SST map for Gulf
Franck, one half will move towards Florida, and the other will move over the Yucatan and eventually into the western Caribbean where conditions for development are much more favorable, though I am not suggesting any yet.
54. Alec
LOL!!!Levi.....I was just looking at that EXACT map a second ago and decided to post the one I did!
The half moving toward Florida will be primarily cold core, so development is not likely especially with all the shear.

Note the GFS has almost all of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico under less than 10-15 knots of shear in 10 days. Joe Bastardi in his Accuweather post this morning said this:

"month ends with trof near west coast, flattening anr retreating northeast off east coast and split piece backing southwest through gulf under ballooning ridge. Gulf opens for business after May 25 though that doesnt mean we have to have development... yet."
Why!?!?! lol. The one I posted is better and high resolution lol! Also it is from satellite which is better. Yours is so blury I can't read it lol!
57. Alec
Levi, do you believe we are at our last cool down for the SE till fall? The long range has us pretty warm again by the weekend...
Levi..possibly..the area which will move across Florida may be affected by that monstrous cutoff low in the northeast, and just be dragged across the Florida peninsula. If the cutoff low subsides, the area may be more likely to take on its own characteristics.
59. Alec
lol You got me Levi.....lol But do you think the one you posted wont be as accurate if there's heavy convection in the Gulf?
Alec, yes I think so. This is supposed to be the last major trough in the southeast before the pattern change. The trough will be hanging out in the eastern part of the country all summer but not that far south I think.
The SST map I posted is a 3-day collabaration of all the satellite passes over the gulf. That can add up to over 2-3 dozen passes. That is quite accurate. Also they have a reliable meathod of removing a few of the pixels that are covered in clouds.
If you want to get really accurate there is a 7-day collabaration of satellite passes.
So are the shear levels expected to drop off over most of the Carib and the Gulf in around 10 days or so and is this when we will be expecting the low that was over the Great Lakes will exit the country?
64. Alec
Well, as soon as the winter jet retreats and the flow becomes more zonal summer will be here and the SSTs will really start warming up. I've observed the SSTs in the Gulf have actually dropped a little bit due to our cooler than normal nights...
If you want something that is not strictly satellite estimates, then this site is really nice. Just click on the area you want from the pictures around the edge of the global image. It even has SST anomalies for small areas like the gulf.
Yes Alec I think so too. It is amazing how much the land temps over the southern US are affecting the gulf SSTs.
67. Alec
If you compare May 12 with May 15 you will see the loop current has weakened just a tad...
Even under less than ideal conditions, and in spite of entering into even less ideal conditions, the area of convection in the western Gulf appears to be showing signs of counterclockwise flow, and even banding. I'm throwing out everything I said in the last few posts. Tropical storm in the Gulf in 24 hours, or less. More than likely it will be the area split off and heading toward the Caribbean, or it may even be the split off area.
Yes I see that, and look at how much cooler the waters near the Texas and Louisiana coasts got. Those land temps sure work quick.

Our Atlantic wave looks pretty good right now. Convection has survived overnight and that little spin thing is right under it. I wonder what will happen when the wave interacts with all the heat coming off South America from afternoon thunderstorms?
Franck that is quite a surprising statement! I don't know. The shear is just so strong. There is a good ridge over it and there are beginnings of outflow to the north of the convection. It is amazing the convection is holding together considering the conditions.
71. Alec
Levi, it's the unusually strong cold front that came through along with northerly winds from that huge low over the Great Lakes that has helped cool the Gulf a bit....but still looks to be above normal(when last yr most of te Gulf was below normal)...
Levi..the post wasn't clear. I meant to say that even the area splitting off may take on tropical characteristics as well, not just the convection heading into the Caribbean. I may be too ashamed to post anything here for the next few weeks.
73. Alec
If my memory serves me correct, there was 25-30 knots of shear over Wilma when it intensified....
Franck I am not sure I understand. Why would you be ashamed?
Not there wasn't, Alec, at least not when she megabombed.

What wave are you all looking at? The only thing in the atlantic that looks remotely like a tropical wave to me is just off Africa.
76. Alec
Posted By: franck at 4:50 PM GMT on May 15, 2006.
Levi..the post wasn't clear. I meant to say that even the area splitting off may take on tropical characteristics as well, not just the convection heading into the Caribbean. I may be too ashamed to post anything here for the next few weeks.

Cheer up:) Weather is an inexact science and even the NHC doesnt understand hurricanes the way they like to(even though they're the real experts, they still get things wrong all the time!)
he'll be ashamed when, in 24 hours, neither of the two pieces have become tropical. i think there's too much SW flow aloft to develop anything for now.
78. Alec
I meant Wilma intensified in a bunch of shear when it moved off the Yucatan Colby....sorry i wasn't specific enough...
Look below 10n around 53w in this image Colby:

The NHC calls it a wave. It will move into the Caribbean and into low shear.
If someone posted a comment at 1:07 PM Eastern time like the blog says I don't see it.
82. Alec
i dont see it!lol well im off, nice talking you you Levi:)...........
Bye Alec I have to go too. Nice talking to you!
"talking to you" should be "talking with you". I hate grammar lol.
Yeah, there's our wavelet Levi32.
86. Alec
actually should be "corresponding via net" w/you......lol! See ya:)
Lol Alec! Catch ya later!
Okay, I see what you're looking at. Not a chance. It'll move over S America anyway.
Its looking interesting next week for the So Cal area. Looking like a cut off low might pick up a little moisture from the south. I wouldnt hold my breath however I think we average around 0.27 inches of rain on average in may. It will be interesting to see what happends.
Yeah if it doesn't gain some latitude it is toast. Forecast was for it to skirt the coast and get into the Caribbean.
im glad i came on because i knew you guys would blow this thing in the gulf out of proportion and i war right...first i want to tell all the people along the gulf coast this is just a cold core low and it does have a circulation way in the upper levels..i want to put all your minds at ease this will not develop in fact it will be gone within 36 hours...the shear is much to strong and the temps around where the system is located are yo marginal...so once again there is no need to worry about this it is not unusual for something to develop on the end of a cool front in may...i can assure you this will not develop...you need to start watching the gulf for real after may 23...THIS HAS BEEN A BULLETIN FROM THE STORMTOPS WEATHER SERVICE.001253
thanks for the info stormtop... THIS HAS BEEN A BULLETIN FROM THE ANTIVANITYS WEATHER SERVICE.000200
ST is right, no chance of the Gulf low becoming anything.
stop with the stupid stormtop weather service and be serious for once
Our Atlantic wave has a fighting chance though, I think it will skirt the coast and end up in the eastern Caribbean where the shear will be very low after 4 days. As long as it can keep a circulation and modest convection we will have something worth watching later this week.
wait till may 23 any little puff of clouds out there will be a cat 5 and threaten SE LA
LOL GPTGUY!!!
its true atmosweather and stormtop weather service will issue hurricane warnings and everything
Yeah I know GPTGUY I was there last year as well. Had drinks out of my nose many times.
i know i was too remember Hurricane Emily
Yeah that was great LOL
STORMTOP INTRODUCES FOR 2006 HURRICANE SEASON A NEW HURRICANE CATEGORY 6 SCALE..I WILL BE USING THIS SCALE THROUGHOUT THE SEASON..THIS IS NOT FROM THE NHC ITS FROM STORMTOPS NATL WEATHER SERVICE....THIS IS THE WAY IT WILL WORK:
CAT 1 75 -95
CAT 2 96-110
CAT 3 111-130
CAT 4 131-150
CAT 5 151-175
CAT6 176-205

I MADE A FEW CHANGES IN MY SCALE BUT THIS IS WHAT I WILL BE GOING BY WHEN HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS...STORMTOP INTRODUCES A CATEGORY 6 FOR 2006 SEASON.....EXTREME MAJOR CATOSTROPHIC DAMAGE....YOU WILL BE HEARING ABOUT THIS LATER AND WHY I SAID THE COMPUTERS ARE OUT TO LUNCH,,IT WILL BE WORSE THIS YEAR ESPECIALLY WHEN A STORM ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN...YOU WILL HEAR MORE ABOUT THIS LATER ALSO..FOR NOW WE CAN ALL RELAX AND JUST WAIT...YOU CAN REST ASSURED STORMTOP WILL BE WATCHING THE GULF AND WILL POP IN AT ANY TIME DAY OR NIGHT WITH HIS FORECASTS SO STAY TUNED....OO1319.............


and nobody cares nobody will go by your stupid chart anybody with sense will follow what the folks at the NHC predicts
Are you sure we need a Cat 6? I mean if we do get a well organized storm moving into the Gulf we could see a couple of Cat 5s, but over 175 mph is a stretch. Just wondering...
yes atmos this year will be a very bad one and we will need a 6...hopefully it will turn out to sea...
of course its a stretch and were not going to see a landfall of a cat 5 much less anything of 175 mph its rediculous
yeah..guess cat 6 is a concept that has to be considered these days. Backing off my intensity forecast for the weather in the western Gulf. Everybody's right. The system is entering just too much shear. But I still think it will make some impressive weather.
Do you mean we will see Cat 5s in the open Atlantic this year? Because any storm that gets into the Gulf will hit somewhere and maybe catastrophically.
yes franck its just a start of things to come ...no need to worry about it it will be gone just as fast as it flared up....
Well it does look remarkable franck, but yes, no chance. It is cold core and will be ripped apart by the shear left behind by this strong cold front.
111. Alec
ST!!!lol Where's your probability and squall band chart???

Posted By: STORMTOP at 3:18 AM GMT on July 27, 2005.
class will be in session tomorrow dont be late this will be worth your while...i am designing a new probability and squall band chart...it will be interesting....


LOL I've gotta see this.
The cap must be through the roof in the W Gulf.
im still working on it i was busy with your inept computers last year that couldnt predict the winner of a one horse race...somethimng you believe in religiously...computers are going to get a lot more people killed unless the nhc wakes up...
Is there a scientific reason that a storm could not have sustained winds of over 175-180mph? Why would we not call this a CAT6? I just love how all you smug little "at home weather experts" have such demeaning comments to spout out at anyone whom they determine to be idiodic. It's just a BLOG you don't have to respond.
116. Alec
my computer models???they aren't mine! I actually have nothing o do w/them....why would you be busy with my "inept computers" if they will get people killed???
No need to swear, I'm flagging that.
alex thats all you go by computer models i dont believe in them and i never will..there is just to much happening right now that the computers arent going to be able to grasp until its to late..
Oh, and BTW, 2005 was a freak, I would be surprised if we had more than 2 Category 5s again this year, let alone 175-180 mph storms.
hi all this a fly by to say hi how is evere one today is evere one plying nic today in her i hop so well any way have a good day i be back soon
121. Alec
Alec* I dont just go by computer models. I observe the upper air charts like you do, look at the environment and all that stuff. I DO NOT solely rely on models.....
you have your opinion atmos this is america the last time i checked
I don't use them at all. Period. They are very inaccurate most of the time.
If the ssts are there and the shear is low for the majority of the season then it will be close toas active as last year, and yes we could see a storm reach 176 for a short period. Remember Wilmas intensification.

SJ
125. Alec
Stormtop, I plan to get a job forecasting hurricanes one day....If i dump all the models off into the sea what do YOU see as an alternative to models?
simple brains alex...
Yes you are right. I never denied anyone their opinion. By law I don't get one actually (I'm not a U.S citizen)
128. Alec
Posted By: STORMTOP at 6:47 PM GMT on May 15, 2006.
simple brains alex...

So, how would we know long range forecasts without models? Models are actually used in many other fields as well....I assume we should just dump them in the ocean too..lol...
well ill be back when conditions warrant and everyone have a great day and remember when you see a big blob developing check the atmospheric conditios and then say what you want to say....good bye all.StormTop
I think we need to clarify the type of models. I use all models concerning steering, shear, moisture, instability and so on, but I won't look at the models for a tropical cyclone except the GFS and GFDL because they are reasonably relaible
See ya later ST
132. JeffK
Air Quality along the east coast should continue to improve with controls on power plants and vehicles in the next few years. In DC, we've seen fewer exceedance days even though last year's met conditions were favorable for pollution formation. Some of this is thought to be a result of the NOx controls on power plants in the Ohio Valley.
133. Alec
Rich, the one thing thing about models is they were relatively reliable in terms of getting he general feelings of where systems would go last yr but YES they need some improvement...
Atmos, you have a right to your opinion even if not American (says the Canadian)..

I have to say I am with StormTop, on the issue of possible Cat 6 superstorms. Something has changed in the atmosphere, that is allowing the explosive development of hurricanes/typhoons into Cat4/Cat5 monsters.

Anyone keeping a tally of how many Cat4/Cat5's we've had worldwide since the start of 2005?
STORMTOP,

First of all, you have an overdeveloped ego. I personally don't care for people who try to make themselves sound better than everyone else (whether it is true or not).

Second, how dare you try to tell people what to do. If people want to look at something on sattelite and get excited about it, that is up to them.
Folks, maybe just see StormTop as an entertainer (when it comes to his over the top comments/predictions). But he's got some smarts, lots of experience, and has shared some remarkably intuitive predictions with us. Just don't take his "stir the pot" comments seriously and we'll all get along fine.
There have been 22 Category 4+ cyclones since January 1st, 2005.
138. Alec
ditto with louastu....STORMTOP, like last yr. please learn to be RESPECTFUL to us. There are many intelligent minds on here and if we want to discuss about this cluster of clouds in the Gulf then we can..(Its a weather forum you know)
where can i find a shear forecast map?
thanks atmos, how do you pull up that info so fast?
Here is the AVN 3 day forecast for the Atlantic. Other model animations of shear can be found here. Just go to the drop down box and click 850-200 mb shear under "Field".
Some of it is memory and I have really good quick links for that kind of info. I keep all season stats for every basin (numbers and intensity) in my favorites.
456 here's another Shear Map
Courtesy of StormJunkie.com
Referenced from U of Wisconsin
Has anybody noticed the invest in the Western Pacific?
Looks decent. 40% chance.
147. RL3AO
Wow, 4 degrees north? The convection looks good, but I wonder if it will get some spin.
Does anyone besides me consider the figure of 22 Cat4/Cat5 storms in the past 17 months to be alarmingly high?
149. RL3AO
Yes it is. Another reason not to live on the coast.
Just a flirty wink from that convection east of Texas. Taunting us, it is.



or

link
151. RL3AO
Here's a shear map of the invest of the WPac. It's located at about 144W 5N.
The gulf is looking interesting......whats up with the NHC satellites?
Yes that west Pacific wave looks good.
That convection is the gulf is holding together still and there is a new blob of cold cloud tops popping up in the center of the mess.
It really needs to move north to start spinning. But there is enough deep convection and it is decently organized.

Weatherboyfsu, they moved all their imagery to here. Its got a lot more floaters and types of enhancements.
Yeah it needs to gain latitude, but it looks very healthy.
I am really excited about the new SSD imagery page. Nine different floaters and tons of different channel 4 enhancements. Its gonna be extremely better tracking the storms this year.
I know Rich I love it! It even has an Alaska sector just for me lol! The new enhancements are really nice, and I am glad they finally made the other floaters available. Also did you look at the gulf of Mexico loops? Look at all the overlays my gosh!
The Alaska and Hawaii sectors aren't online yet. Figures Alaska would be last to work lol.
160. RL3AO
No, Alaska should be next to last to work.
where the link to it?
Yeah if we have to watch Gulf storms this season its gonna be awesome.
Yesterday turned into a pretty good sized outbreak of severe weather. There were 319 total reports of severe weather, including 18 reports of tornadoes.

Link
I know we are armed and ready this year!

RL3AO lol actually it is always last and has the least weather products. Grrr I hate that. Why can't they give us the same maps and stuff? That's what I get for living in the most beautiful place in the world lol.
We might have some severe weather here in Orlando tomorrow.
Seems like we have significant severe weather almost every day now. It has been quite a tornado season so far.
Yes Rich the SPC has a slight risk area over you tonight and tomorrow.
LOL maybe if there was another 10-15 million more people there then NOAA might care! JK!
We will only get severe weather though if the cap breaks and it hasn't broken for months LOL! We've had more freezes than cap breaks since last summer!
171. RL3AO
Well, I was going off of that Alaska joined the union before Hawaii, therfore should get the sat floater before Hawaii!
Haha right LOL
LOL maybe! They don't think it is worth giving us the products because we don't have enough observation stations or people around the state. Can't they at least give us more radar stations? Those aren't so hard to get. We could really use some full coverage of the state. At least the SSD people were thoughful enough to give us a sat page of our own.
Well Florida gets its own tropical floater LOL, and the primary SSD floater (1) has been on us since December. We're SPECIAL LOL!!
I wish lol! You know we are getting severe weather here in Alaska the last two years. last year we had 3 severe thunderstorm warnings for my area and a few more for Anchorage. We even had a funnel cloud that almost touched down! Scary!
Haha Rich lol! I don't think it's you lol. It's because the hurricane center is in Florida I'll bet.
177. Alec
just a quick ~*~*~fly-by~*~*~Does anyone think a cold front may make it to FL by this coming weekend? Models are starting to hint of one...thanks....see ya guys later!:)
Alec I think you should get some rain soon. Either this cold front or the next one should clip you at least. See you later have a great day!
Yeah Levi I know that's the reason LOL! But its cool to be watched from space constantly LOL! I remember the 2004 season, at least 1 of the floaters had Florida on it 90% of the season LOL!

Alec, I have seen some models hint at a pretty weak front coming through on Saturday but stalling in north Florida.
You are sooooo lucky LOL! Just wait there won't be very many storms hitting Florida this year so your precious floater will be taken away to another storm somewhere else lol!
Ha this cold front will drench Florida tomorrow. 70% chance of rain for me tomorrow, and possibly severe weather.
Posted By: Levi32 at 12:36 PM AKDT on May 15, 2006.
Alec I think you should get some rain soon. Either this cold front or the next one should clip you at least. See you later have a great day!

And if you don't, well, the hurricane season is coming very soon.
Well I hope you get the much needed rain but not any severe stuff. If this convection holds together you could be in for a good soaking.
Shhh don't scare him louastu lol. Alec sweet tropical depressions with 10 M.P.H. winds are coming your way to caress you and bathe you in their cool rain water.
ROFL!!!!
Did any of you just experience an error in this site when you refreshed just now?
LOL
And just because you said that this blob of stuff in the Gulf is going to expand and form a megastorm pounding Florida with 640 mph winds and no rain. And then it will move northwest into Alaska and STALL!
What does "ROFL" mean?
Yes I did. I have no idea what it was, but it seems to be working now.
Roll On Floor Laughing
Roll on THE floor laughing. Grammar lesson needed LOL!
error i did
The Rocky Mountains will take care of it for me lol. I always wanted to have a hurricane on my doorstep lol.
LMAOROFLOL!!!!
Lol I don't know much of these expressions because this is the first time I have ever chatted with people via the internet.
I have a feeling I know what "LMAO" means lol.
If it is "Roll On The Floor Laughing", Then why don't you put "ROTFL"?
LMAO - Laugh My A** Off
ROFLSMCS

"rolling on the floor laughing and smashing my computer screen" LOL!
Louastu - go play a MMORPG and STFU!!! LOL JK
Yes I had a feeling that's what it meant lol

Louastu I guess people just don't want to go through the extra effort. But why would they go "ROFL when they could skip "on" and "the" and go "RFL".
And what does "JK" mean? I have seen you use it twice today.
Levi are you having one of those 420 days LOL!!
Posted By: Levi32 at 1:48 PM PDT on May 15, 2006.
Did any of you just experience an error in this site when you refreshed just now?


yes i did see the error and have yet Aron no as well
I DON'T KNOW WHAT A 420 DAY IS EITHER LOL!!!
Just Kidding
208. pt100
hi, Frank here
Its rolling over from laughter to my opinion
JK=Just Kidding
Enlighten me PLEASSSSEEE lol!
OMG this is going to be SFF!! Levi we are going to have fun with you LOL.
Thank you, now what on earth is 420 day? A Leftyy420 day when he argues with stormtop? lol!
Anyone Else's Posts Dragging Since the Error Earlier?
Oh oh this doesn't sound good LOL! What in heaven does SFF mean?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
The SFF one got me. What does it mean?
My posts are Fran. The entire site went down for 2 minutes.

Rich don't play pranks on me just because I don't know English lol!
A 420 day is a day when you smoke marajuana LOL.
Don't worry Levi I'll always translate them if you don't know what they mean. FWIW, I'm not a mean person LOL.

SFF - So F***ing Funny
hey oh want to come on to my blog
I am not familiar with "MMO".

I understand the rest of it.
Your kidding?!?! Who knew? In that case then I am definately NOT having a 420 day LOL!

I was so sure that had something to do with Leftyy420 lol.
Just popping in for a sec and Rich is talking about 420..LOL Rich, I always thought you were an innocent kid..LOL You are ruining your rep.!!..LOL I always thought you were a straight arrow!! Anyway, have a great rest of your day! Rain on the way!!..Woohoo!! Lets hope:)
THought so.
R0fl l00kz l31k \/\/3 r u$1|\|g 1337 sp33k 2d4y!

Yeah, I was a serious gamer for a while. Anyhow, I had a thought for an addition to my site, wanted to see what you thought of it. I'm thinking of a 'Wave Tracker', a once-daily advisory on all the waves in the Atlantic during hurricane season.
Interesing Rich. Why would anyone want to use an abreviation with a swear word in it? That doesn't sound right.

NOW WHAT IN HEAVEN'S NAME DOES "FWIW" MEAN? YOU ARE KILLING ME LOL!
See ya Bob! LOL we are having one weird moment in time right now LOL!
ForecasterColby did you get the mail on your web site?
For What It's Worth
Don't worry Bob Rich is just having a blast using me for his personal intertainment LOL!
I think FWIW is "for what it's worth".
JMHO, though.
Zap
Thanks louastu.
FWIW - for what it's worth

SFF is someone's creation, I hate using swear words even in slang or shorthand. Just an expression. Sorry Bob, I'm just familiar with this type of chat for some reason. I'm not a bad kid LOL I promise :)
"JMHO"=just my____opinion

What is in the blank?
LOL Rich we know you aren't bad. But I am beginning to worry lol! Just kidding.
I found out what the "MMO" in "MMORPG" stands for.

MMORPG = Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game
Humble Opinion.

I'm leaving, obviously people are annoyed by this. Everyone have a great day, and don't think that I'm a complete moron because I know these things. I apologize infinitely if I have made Levi unhappy or any of the rest of you.
Interesting louastu. I wonder where all these short hand expressions came from today lol. Rich did you notice we have filled up Dr. Master's blog with over 100 comments of nonsense?! It's your fault LOL!
I was having fun.
Oh Rich no you havn't upset me I am sweating with laughter right now! I thought that was quite fun but we should stop now. You are not a moron I know you are an awesome person!
Rich, it makes you human!! I love it! Dont change!
Rich we are all just teasing you. It is only fair since you were teasing us lol.
Just My Humble Opinion.

Didn't mean to offend. There are many I don't know either, and I have teenage daughters to help me out!
Zap
Rich if you are leaving I hope you have a great rest of the day! I hope to talk with you later!
Get back here, Rich!! I work with teenagers for a living, and have yet to meet one that hasn't made me LMAO at times. This was your turn...
Levi32,

An easy way to find out what these acronyms stand for is to do a Google search.

That is how I found out the meaning of MMORPG.
Thanks louastu. Good to know.
NP.
I am taking off now too. I will be back sometime this evening. See you all later!
Alright, TTYL.
Am I seeing things or does it almost look like that blob in the SW Gulf is trying to develop a weak spin to it?
Anyway, back to weather. Has any one looked at the Eastern Pacific system lately? It is looking pretty good on visible.

252. RL3AO
253. RL3AO
If you had something blowing you 55 mph, you might start spining too.
The EPAC system does look pretty good. No real surface wind rotation/low pressure, though.
Well, I will BBL, probably around 11:00 PM.
256. RL3AO
New sat image of the WPacific invest.

No one has commented on the wave tracker I mentioned above. *pokes*
Sorry Colby I forgot about that. That is a great idea! A wave tracker would be extremely useful!
Posted By: Alec at 6:52 PM GMT on May 15, 2006.
Posted By: STORMTOP at 6:47 PM GMT on May 15, 2006.
simple brains alex...

So, how would we know long range forecasts without models? Models are actually used in many other fields as well....I assume we should just dump them in the ocean too..lol...

No Alec we should just dump Stormtop in the ocean...then all would be well!!
I got a little break between chores, so I decided to check a few weather sites. I went to Accuweather.com, and found this.

Link

This is a map that highlights the areas that they believe are most at risk.

Oops. Let me try that again.

Hmm................. It won't let me post that image.

Oh well, it is on the link.
Anyway, break is over. I will be back around 11:00 PM.
I saw that earlier everybody was talking about Category 6 hurricanes; last year had two Category 6s if Stormtop's scale is used (176 - 205 mph): Rita (180 mph) and Wilma (185 mph).
Thumbs UP^^ On WaveTracker Colby!
any one her i have no one to talk to on my blog so far today so how is evere one doing today
I Think It's Amazing that nobody ever implimented a Cat. 6 scale and what he has (176-205) is EXACTLY what it would be mathmaticly.....
Now there habve only been 7 Category 6's ever recorded in the Atlantic basin
and Last year we had 2 of them!!!!!
I think the fact that there have only been 7 in history is self explanatory for why a Cat 6 isnt needed. Cat 5 damage is already described as catastophic, what will Cat 6 damage be described as...apocalyptic?
Category 5 is plenty. The difference between 160mph and 180mph really isn't that much, only 26% more force.
It's just that it's soo hard for a storm just to get to 160mph so when they get up to 180 it's SOOOOO Rediculas they Deserve a higher rank because they are the King of Kings
Since the interval for Category 4 spans 24 mph (131-155), I would favor making category 5 156-179 and Category 6 180-204. If you really needed it, Category 7 could be defined as 205-234, but I have serious doubts about whether that will ever happen. By this reckoning, Rita, Wilma, and Monica would all make Category 6.
hi : TheSnowman
Hurricanemyles...no holocaustal.
It would work out fine, but it's just unnecessary, imo. The damage done by a Cat 6 will be roughly the same as a Cat 5, that is complete and utter destruction either way.
By the way, the range from Category 1 (74 mph) to Category 4 (155 mph) is 81 mph, or 20 mph per category on average, so Category 6 should be from 176 to 195 mph, Category 7 196 to 215, etc (why are the Cat 1 - 4 intervals not even in the first place; i.e 74-93, 94-113, etc).
They 'deserve' the honor of Category 6? Why are we endowing storms with these honors? I enjoy a good, record-breaking hurricane as much as the next guy, but please don't tell me they 'deserve' it.
there is no reason for a cat 6 just like myles said cat 5 is catastrophic the saffir-simpson scale was made in the mid-late 70's at that point in time cat 5's were rare i know there is an upswing in cat 5's now but theres no need to revise the scale
a hurricane doesnt deserve nothing as far as im concerned except maybe respect for the power they harness...thats it
i ahv updated my blog
David - yes; it lists the number of deaths now. By the way, the Katrina death toll really needs to be updated; Wikipedia says over 1,600.
Oh, the pressure for Rita needs to be updated as well.
MichaelSTL they did 895
No the didn't; it still says 897:

Hurricane Rita 09/18 - 09/26 180 mph 897 mb 7 Category 3
MichaelSTL oh i see come see what the update maps color have today in my blog see you there
Well its really more than 1600 deaths, there are still over 3500 missing as of last week, and I don't think many of them are still alive.
: atmosweather come to my blog
It says that there were only 7 deaths from Rita; I thought that it was over 100. Link Possibly, only direct deaths are counted.
Rich did you get my e-mail from earlier?
What continues to boggle my mind about last year is not so much the number of storms, but how many formed and decided to go straight for land. Porportionately, fewer storms "spun out" than normal. Why? Was it the western position position of the bermuda high? Or something else?

TheLuckyTacoBlizzard's link spurred this comment, in case you're all wondering.
Avarhirion hmm what link was that? how are you
Yes, the Bermuda High had a lot to do with it, but also, it was because a high proportion of storms formed in the western Atlantic or the Caribbean, which means that the storm has to hit land somewhere.
Rich what do you think of our little wave nearing the Caribbean? I am impressed the convection keeps firing in places. I wonder if it will survive until the shear weakens.
If you click on 'satellite' on the WU homepage map and animate it, it looks like the weather for nearly all the North American continent is setting up around the cutoff low over the Great Lakes. Super strange.
: atmosweather where is are Bermuda High and how far is it for the hurricane to hit the usa?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006051518&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Is it worth noting that this run shows the lows creeping north towards the Cape? Once (if) those highs start clearing out of the Atlantic, Africa's gonna start spewing tropical waves at us again. :D

B
of the 28 named storms last year 15 made landfall thats over half!!

TS Arlene-AL-FL Border
TS Bret-Mexico
Hurricane Cindy-Louisiana
Hurricane Dennis- Florida Panhandle
Hurricane Emily- Mexico twice
TS Gert- Mexico
TS Jose- Mexico
Hurricane Katrina- S. Florida/LA-MISS
Hurricane Rita- LA-TX Border
Hurricane Stan- Mexico
TS Tammy- NE Florida
Hurricane Vince- Spain (as a weakening TS)
Hurricane Wilma- Mexico/Florida
TS Alpha- Dominican Republic
Hurricane Beta- Nicaragua
There is a monster wave over Africa in the bottom right corner of this image:

The wave still looks decent, and it is certainly not dissipating any time soon. I'm not sure if it can gain latitude fast enough to get into the favorable Caribbean though. If it does, we need to watch it. I'm gonna check the instability and the low level convergence forecasts for that area for 120 hours, then I'll be able to give a more accurate forecast on it.
Now THAT is the one that I talked about yesterday which IS worth watching.
Rich where do you get instability and low level convergence forecasts? I don't know of any.
atmosweather it is way too soon for the waves to develop that comes off Africa! SST might be warm enough to sustain development but the shear will tear it apart
The GFS does forecast half a dozen cyclones over Africa, but none of thrm move over water. Also, the convection in the Gulf is not a low pressure system; the GFS has the low that was in the western Gulf over the Yucatan now and dissipates it in 12 hours.
Why, every time a good soaking approches West Palm, it falls apart! Storms moving in this evening, about a half an hour ago, they move into the metro area and goodbye, almost instantly. We have maybe a Half Inch of rain here.
Here is the GFS initial shear analysis. There is actually pretty low shear south of the Cape Verde Islands. This is the only analysis I can get that shows that far south.
Its worth watching if the subtropical jet breaks down like the models forecast.
The Great Lakes low is really impressive. Is it ever going anywhere or ist it just gonna sit there?
It is forecast to stall for the next 72 hours and then move out over the mid-Atlantic.
Cape Verde season doesn't begin until mid august nothing will come out of that cluster coming off Africa... but if it did that would be record breaking and this season would be scary
I don't mean right as it gets into the Atlantic I mean if it travels as a wave and survives into the Caribbean.
Alright, I am back.

The system in the EPAC is not looking so good now.


The invest in the WPAC is looking pretty good.


Chanchu looks like it is going through an EWRC.


On another note, Chanchu appears to have weakened from eyewall replacement cycles; notice the concentric eyewalls (unfortunately, earlier microwave passes missed the center, so I can't be sure if the earlier weakening was from an EWRC):

That thing might be able to hold together for 72hrs if it keeps pulling all that moisture from the Gulf.

SJ
yeah atmosweather if it survives its trek across into the caribbean especially the central or western caribbean it would be very interesting
On another note, Chanchu appears to have weakened from eyewall replacement cycles; notice the concentric eyewalls (unfortunately, earlier microwave passes missed the center, so I can't be sure if the earlier weakening was from an EWRC):

The system in the Gulf is not a low. Link
Uh Michael yes it is. Its an area of developing low pressure. Not gonna form into anything tropical. From Tampa discussion tonite:

AND BELIEVE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE GULF WILL BE
STRONGER THAN THE 1012 MB FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BUOYS OVERNIGHT FOR
DEEPENING.

No models forecast anything to develop.
Well I am off for a short while everyone. Got to give the dog some play time. I also have to eat dinner. See you all later!

Rich I hope you got my mail.
I was talking about the big giant spin aroun ky/wv.

sj
I was just going to comment Weatherguy! Looks to be popping like a bud of a depression.
Well keep looking at those models then..LOL

Here is low tracking across Florida per GFS..Link

Like I said nothing tropical, just your run of the mill low pressure.
Posted By: atmosweather at 10:28 PM EDT on May 15, 2006.
It is forecast to stall for the next 72 hours and then move out over the mid-Atlantic.
Hey PP. Nah, it has too much shear around it. And is forming along cold front. Also, doesnt have enough time to get going. But will give South Florida some much needed rain. Just what the rain doctor ordered!
Not quite but daym close
Yeah I know Weatherguy! Like I said, close!
Just alittle preview PP!..LOL Hopefully this will be the beginning of the rainy season..LOL
Well if it is anything like today it won't be. 1/2" of rain here so far, had a meaty storm approaching tonight and fell apart when it hit the metro area. I am speaking of West Palm, I know others got soaked.
At least you got some!
Nothing up this way. I probably wont get any tomorrow. Oh well, I will be patient..LOL
any one like to come to my blog
Why do you keep telling others to come to your blog?

Anybody like to come to my blog?
for get it then
Michael please don't do that. He is asking nicely. I have not had a comment for days but I don't mind.
I know, but some others don't like the way that he keeps telling everybody to post on his blog and it annoys them (he is one of the only users with 2,000+ comment blogs).
: atmosweather would you like to? we can talk about what evere it sould be fun
the point
Then don't post in his blog (which you do frequently) and flag his requests. You don't need to get annoyed and write a comment about it.
Yeah I'll be there in a few minutes.
i am only asking nic if any one would like to talk in my blog one was the last time i had a good talk in my blog it was last week
What I am saying is that he does not need to keep posting that he wants everybody to come to his blog; I don't need him to tell me to come over (unless he wants me to see something) because I look at his blog anyway.
Ok then, so if you visit anyway, why are you worried about him asking nicely for others to post.
well that find by me i will not tell you to come to my blog any more MichaelSTL
we can pick this up in my blog i do not think DR M would like it if we feel up his blog up with overe 400 or 500 post in one day
No don't do that David. You post whatever you want.
guys can we talk about weather instead of bickering back and forth about a blog please
351. Alec
~*~*~*~*~*~*~*lets keep it civil in here=)~*~*~*~**hope everyone is enjoying your evening!
I think the real problem is just that others (not necessarialy me) don't really want to see unnecessary posts.
I'm not trying to argue.
ok i post what evere i want
What I am going to do Weatherguy is take a mental note where the greatest convection was, may play a role in the coming weeks.
Micheal, just as he has the right to post, you have the right not to look or pay attention to them! If I see something I don't care about I IGNORE IT.
i dont think Dr. M cares how many posts he has just as long as there is no bickering back and forth about coming to other peoples blogs its really not that serious
whats give FL some rain
what's up alec how's your evening been?
I'm outta here before I get blamed or I annoy more people. Have a good night everyone
361. Alec
hope FL gets their fires quenched....completely...rain on the way!
hmm you are right there
363. Alec
Posted By: TheLuckyTacoBlizzard at 3:13 AM GMT on May 16, 2006.
whats give FL some rain

lol Taco....just wrote about that!

Hey GPTGUY!!!
I have noticed that there seem to be three categories of blogs:

1. "dead blogs" (very few or no posts or none for a very long time; most common type)
2. "plain blogs" (occasional posts, but not that many)
3. "popular blogs" (sometimes get hundereds of posts a day)
92.5W 24N area
Alec rain for FL coool whats give FL 5ft of rain
David, I thought that you wanted us to be in your blog (nobody home)?
368. Alec
GPTGUY, looks like that low in the Gulf has taunted the NHC!LOL It wants to develop but it cant!!!
TACO, 5 ft sheesh most of South FLA is 4 feet above sea level, you have some dive gear handy?
no one home tonight
371. Alec
Posted By: TheLuckyTacoBlizzard at 3:18 AM GMT on May 16, 2006.
Alec rain for FL coool whats give FL 5ft of rain

Actually getting 60 inches of rain would severely flood the state!
: ProgressivePulse well you said FL need rain that would give them some rian
How about 3 or 4 inches, sounds like a good number to me.
Remember the Midwest in 1993? That was from 3-4 feet of rain over many months; what would 5 feet in a day do? (this actually happened in Mexico from Wilma; the flooding must have been horrendous).
375. Alec
That stupid stationary system over the Great Lakes caused severe flooding in the NE!!!
come to my blog so that Masters' blog is not filled up with off the topic talk any one?
MichaelSTL,

I understand that you are trying to keep others from getting annoyed, but the way you posted that came across as "would you please shutup?". It would have been better to simply ask him to stop, and explain that it could be irritating to others.
hey Alec i hear that stormtop is still working on his probability and squall band chart lol
At leat the Great Lakes storm has done some good: my 30 day precipitation deficit is pretty much gone.
you are right i am sorry for that evere one would any one for give me i this want to have a nic little talk in my blog like the old days hmmm been a long time so i am sorry
Speaking of squall bands, that is quite an impressive line approaching the west coast. Nothing like a before the wake up alarm thunderstorm!
382. Alec
Posted By: GPTGUY at 3:24 AM GMT on May 16, 2006.
hey Alec i hear that stormtop is still working on his probability and squall band chart lol


-thats what he said last yr, but was too busy managing my "inept computer models"lol
hi Alec how are you
Hey Guys,

I just wanted to say hey and that Upperlevel Low in the gulf looks good but it want last long....

The One and Only

Taco:0)
That Great Lakes system has been a very good thing for me. I planted grass about 2 weeks ago, and it is really growing fast now.

Another good thing that came out of this storm is it cancelled all the soccer games on Saturday, which made it so I could stay home (I hate reffing soccer, it would be so much better if the parents were not allowed to be there).
lol i just hope stormtop doesn't see that convection in the gulf cause if he does oh no watch out New Orleans there will be a cat 6 hurricane headed there way at least thats what the stormtop weather service will report
David,

I don't mind you inviting people to your blog, but perhaps you should try to limit it to once a day, or once every 100 posts. I don't think anybody would have a problem with that.
389. Alec
taco2me61 and tacoblizzard you are making me hungry!!!lol
LMAO@ GPTGuy
There probably will be a Catgeory 6 this year (> 175 mph); there were two of them last year.
yeah taco's sound good right about now...im craving taco bell we had like 8 of them down here in Gulfport/Biloxi but 7 of them were destroyed by Katrina and the 1 left closes at 9pm :O(
so what sould i do wait in tell we get a blog hurricane to talk or soul i make a new blog i may nevere get back up to 100post this to tell you i did vary good the past few night last week
394. Alec
another good thing about the Great lakes system is it's helped draw down cooler air to the SE into the Gulf which has helped(temporarily) cool the Gulf just a bit!
Night Time Taco, wait till morning, she'll fire up again.
Hey Alec,

You are so funny too....BLAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
how Biloxi doing
yeah alec i like reading your blog and checking that water temp...especially the one 22 mi se of Biloxi
i am not to bed this yet it is only 8:42pm lol
Not to mention rain to the much needed State of Florida
401. Alec
WELL guys lets all come to my blog!!!lol




It will be cooler than normal here in Tally till the weekend!
Yea Progressive it will blow -up tomorrow and FL does need the rain... I'm not sure if they need it all at one time...


Taco:0)
Biloxi is doing ok revenue in the city is up as it is in Gulfport...3 of Biloxi's casinos are open so that helps...debris is about 85% picked up...its places to the west like Long Beach, Pass Christian, Bay St. Louis and Waveland that are in real bad shape...in most places it looks like the hurricane hit last week
Posted By: Alec at 3:44 AM GMT on May 16, 2006.
WELL guys lets all come to my blog!!!lol


or to my blog lol


sorry i had to say it
Or to mine... lol
406. Alec
TB- you left out the part where it said !!!lol

sorry for the off topic posts, im gonna have a timeout in my blog!.....whoooooosh!
GPTGUY how your home doing? did they get all the stoplight back up and working?
408. Alec
darn! parts my posts are disappearing!!!Im gone for real(in the safety of my safeharbor blog) SOMEONES STALKING MY POSTS!!
Or to mine.

Oh wait, I haven't posted anything yet.
my home lost the roof, and had a tree fall and take out my window unit A/C which in turn pulled the window out of the house, and i lost my car..but other than that i was blessed compared to many other people!!! and all the stoplights are up and running in most places..stop signs are up where there used to be stoplights
That is the truth Taco, not all at one time, BUT, we'll take what we can get when we can get it. I am thinking we'll get a little less punch that is forcasted. In my local area anyway, south and north counties already have 3 inches today. Have to see what the day brings tomorrow, good to chat with everyone, have a good night!

Ryan
You too Ryan,

I do hope you get some rain, just not flooding if you know what I mean...


Taco:0)
Hey folks, not to be a nag but remember Dr. Masters' post about trying to keep chit chat off this main blog? Just logged on and scrolled through a great many posts, with not much substantive weather-related content in evidence.

It might have been better to actually take up TacoBlizzard's invitation and move the chat there. Not a big issue now, but increasingly so as the tropics heat up. Ok?
Snowboy - you got it; that is why we have our own blogs.
Can anyone tell me if the blob that is coming across Mexico going to have a chance once it gets in the Gulf???

Now I do understand that the sheer is still out there but I think some of yall said that the sheer would slow down...


just wondering
Taco:0)
well look likesome one love me lol
Well good nite all I will be chating tomorrow...
418. Alec
chating?....lol
That's one large thunderstorm complex moving due north towards flood ravaged Rhode Island in the next hour...not good.




Latest radar snapshot.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


Ummmm I Think we'll finally get some rain, what do you think? lol!
Nothing like a white out in South Fla, haha.
This years story is dry as a desert or wet as a rainforest.

How the 2006 Hurricane Season Will Compare to the 2005 Season...

Following on the heels of 2005's record-shattering hurricane season, 2006 will feature fewer storms, but will still be a season of above-average storm frequency. "There were 28 named storms last year, and we are expecting far fewer storms during this season. But keep in mind that it is not the number of storms that is significant, it is where they make landfall that sets the tone for the season,

See the landfall prdiction here:
Link

Full story here:

Link
Posted By: snowboy at 12:26 AM EDT on May 16, 2006.
Hey folks, not to be a nag but remember Dr. Masters' post about trying to keep chit chat off this main blog? Just logged on and scrolled through a great many posts, with not much substantive weather-related content in evidence


Do you ever have any constructive to say? It was late at night and they were having fun, leave them alone..LOL When you make the rules, then we will listen to you..LOL Have a nice day! Go Rain!
Finally getting some more, much-needed, rain here in Tampa...
We are thankful for last nights rain in the Yucatan. It helped put out some nasty fires that had been burning for a while. The tropical rainforests had been rendered dry from Emily and Wilma last year!

This kind of rain, with no hurricane strength winds and no storm surge are always welcome.
How do you post those regional radar images when the entire picture is full of links?
Ummm... New blog up...