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New disturbance affecting Lesser Antilles; Typhoon Xangsane batters the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:56 PM GMT on September 28, 2006

A tropical wave moving through the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands this morning has been declared "Invest 97L" by the National Hurricane Center. Although small, the wave has developed enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be of concern. The wave is moving west-northwest at 15 mph, and will bring heavy rains and gusty winds to Antigua, St. Maarten, and surrounding islands today, and Puerto Rico on Friday. Martinique radar shows a moderate area of heavy rain moving through the islands. Antigua has seen some heavy rain this morning and gusty winds. Winds shifted to southwesterly at 11am EDT this morning, indicating that a closed surface circulation may exist. QuikSCAT winds at 6:22am EDT this morning showed a large area of 20-25 mph winds under these thunderstorms, and a strong wind shift, but not a closed surface circulation. The wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to remain below 15 knots the next two days. The low shear and warm waters the system is over may allow some continued development. The computer models are not tracking this system very well because it is so small, but it appears likely that the storm will pass just north of the Bahamas and then turn north. The storm will probably not hit the U.S. East Coast. The earliest this could become a tropical depression is Sunday.


Figure 1. Preliminary models tracks for Invest 97L.

Typhoon Xangsane
Typhoon Xangsane roared over the main Philippine Island of Luzon yesterday, passing directly over the capital city of Manila, home to 12 million people. Xangsane was rated as a Category 3 storm when it hit Manila, but winds of only Category 1 strength affected the city. The Manila airport recorded maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 89 mph as the northern eyewall of Xangsane battered the city about noon local time. Manila passed into the calm of the eye, recording a pressure of 954 mb. Eleven deaths have been blamed on the typhoon so far, five of them from a mudslide in a mountainous area. Thirty people are missing in a dam collapse south of Manila. Xangsane's death toll is likely to go much higher when the area southeast of Manila where Xangsane made landfall as a Category 4 typhoon is heard from. Damage so far has been heavy, particularly to agriculture, and losses will likely reach several hundred million dollars. Xangsane did extensive damage to the power grid of Luzon, and the entire island experienced a blackout. Only 5% of the island has seen power restored thus far.

The last significant typhoon to affect Manila was 1995's Supertyphoon Angela, which killed 740, left 650,000 homeless, and caused severe damage to the agricultural areas surrounding the capital. Angela was one of 14 tropical storms or typhoons to affect the Philippines that year. So far this year, four typhoons have affected the Philippines. Interaction with land has weakened Xangsane on its passage over the Philippine Islands, but the typhoon should intensify once more this weekend into a major typhoon before hitting Vietnam on Sunday.


Figure 1. Typhoon Xangsane at landfall in the Philippines. Image credit: NASA.

Isaac is born
Tropical Storm Isaac formed over the waters southeast of Bermuda this morning. QuikSCAT wind data from 4:43am EDT this morning showed numerous wind barbs of tropical storm strength, which was given as the justification ofr upgrading the storm at 11am today. However, satellite imagery this morning shows a decrease in the amount and intensity of the thunderstorm activity near the center. Isaac is not a classic tropical storm, and may be more properly called a subtropical storm--one that is a hybrid between a true tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low is bringing about 10 knots of shear over the storm and some dry air into the center from the southwest. These negative influences are expected to decrease over the next 48 hours, which should allow slow intensification. All of the models predict that Isaac will turn north and recurve out to sea, and will not be a threat to any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula could see some development early next week, when a strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. and stall out over this region. The NOGAPS model continues to forecast tropical storm development here next week.

An area of heavy thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave near 9N 50W, about 500 miles east of the South American coast, is moving west at 15 mph. This wave is under about 10 knots of shear, but is disorganized, and I don't expect it to develop.

I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Camille, celia and agnes are as far back as i'll go.

Here is a vsisble pic of CAMILLE in the GOM.


I know that the models have been hinting at something developing along this frontal boundary in the western caribbean, there is now a large cluster of clouds with some convection associated over a broad area. Could this area be favorable for development once the front moves south of Florida and into a better environment? I know that nothing has really formed as of late in the caribbean that has been able to keep its act together, is there a chance that the wave that 23 mentioned will make it into the caribbean as something and then form?

The storm that 23 mentioned kinda reminds me of what Wilma did last year in the area that she formed as well as the way she acted. As for this new invest, its still attached to the tail end of Issac and for this reason and the ULL thats in the area I do not think we will see anything of it. 03 was right, this storm will not have a healthy environment to grow in.
Ron, you are correct!
27windows - I think it's great what you are doing. GEDs are important to folks that didn't get high school diplomas for one reason another.
oops...or another
That's ok 27. Something happened to the blog for a few minutes. I couldn't get any new posts and didn't know what was happening
Georges. That was an easy one.
where did everybody go?
515. Relix
Anyone expects to 97L to develop into a TD or even into a TS and pass over or near Puerto Rico?? Example: Jeanne in 2004. I know the models are all hinting north, and i see the movement in the radar (Kinda), so... what are people's opinion on this??
i live in dominican republic i remember quit well jeanne a cat one when it made landfall here
hey hurricane how is 97 doing i heard that it isn't doing well
97 looks like its being shredded and pulled or pushed to the N
ricderr
If you are around

I didn't mean to ignore your question to me earlier as to whether or not I would watch 97L if I were in Fla.I had to leave the computer for a couple of hrs on something urgent.
Absolutely I would and I didn't mean to imply otherwise. Just commenting that modelling invests should not be taken seriously given the known trouble models have with systems before they are classified
caymanguy

97L is history like so many other systems this year. It may flare up again overnight but don't expect and longevity IMO

Boy some serious lightning outside now !
Think I will get of the computer for a while
"any"
Posted By: Relix at 10:45 PM GMT on September 28, 2006.

Anyone expects to 97L to develop into a TD or even into a TS and pass over or near Puerto Rico?? Example: Jeanne in 2004. I know the models are all hinting north, and i see the movement in the radar (Kinda), so... what are people's opinion on this??


probally if it were to come your way at all it would be minimal...the united states and the se of the U.S. is the main concern right now thats what the real threat of this system is and it would probally be way stronger if it heads our way...im hoping it wil recurve before it hits....but you cant be too sure...

well, anyways relix...relax...probally have nothing to worry about there in puerto rico:)

For the island guys...
recon has a possible flight going Saturday to 97L, by their coordinates, they expect just N of you all.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 21.5N 68.0W AT 30/1800Z.
thanks Kman,

any thoughts on the blob near 12N nearing the outer ilands?
kmanislander

the lightening is something else I agree - my wife just called asking me to come home from the office because the thunder is scaring her :)

I am amazed that the power has not gone off yet - usually the slightest sign of a storm and good old CUC throws us into darkness.
Where 97L is now...this is the time of day you would expect it to look it's least impressive.
And I was just going to say 97's structure looks to be improving a bit! - convection.
That is minus convection!


I see no hope in this one...

Isaac was a mistake, that was a wasted name, as well was Debby.


if 97L were to develop i would expect it to be a recurver, or affect Puerto Rico
I wont speculate here and state that Invest97L has "no" chance, and I wont say it has all the chance in the world.

Bottom Line: It may. It may not. As of now, it looks very unimpressive. However, this has room to change. So don't let 97L escape your mind so quickly. Don't let it fill your mind so quickly ethier.

Just kind of watch it with an atittude like "Yeah, that thing....that might have a chance"

97L....the little engine that could?
I agree PP..The transformation in the last few hours shows stregthening...minus what's happening with the convection, but like I said..expected this time of day.
Did you mean the little engine that couldent.

And never will.
97L seems to be trying to fire up... conditions really arent there for it to do too great... but it wants to. And weve all seen whats happened when a system WANTS it bad enough. Chris...Ernesto... pretty much the story of '06.
For sure Skye! Organization does not always include convection!
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 11:22 PM GMT on September 28, 2006.

Did you mean the little engine that couldent.

And never will.


It was just a little phrase I used in a joking way.

The little wishcasterboy that speculates, and believes in his very own speculation with his whole heart.

The little wishcasterboy who can't spell COULDN'T.

Man that is a big blob of mess coming in the right side of THE CATL LOOP
Skye is right...97L's makeup has all been washed off from earlier today. A new face shall emerge.
The Body...is still there.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!
IT'S BACK! ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH IN THE NORTH EAST!!!!!! THIS WOULD BE THE THIRD OF THE YEAR!!!
ONE F2, ONE F0, AND ONE F?
New scatt coming out soon eyy!
Evening Rand!
Posted By: Randrewl at 11:30 PM GMT on September 28, 2006.

The Body...is still there.


Exactly, 97L is just picking out an outfit!

Sorry that one slipped. Just that song in my head the sond said it I swear!
97L appears to have been fed by the dinurnal max during the early morning hours. Now that its the minimum its really feeling the poor surrounding its in. 97L appears to be another one of the flare up then die off types. It's possible one of the flare ups could stick, but just as possible that convection will fade and it will die off completely. Keeping an eye on it would probably be smart, though.
Oh ya! Andrews in the house!
Hi Pulse....yeah ....she's trying things on right now. It ain't over.
hey CI folks,

can you tell which way this nasty stuff we got now is headed?
Posted By: caymanguy at 11:36 PM GMT on September 28, 2006.

hey CI folks,

can you tell which way this nasty stuff we got now is headed?


As of now...

No where fast.
off topic

this looks ominous and is coming my way

Link
Andrew... Oh... emmm well ahh, I think i'm sorry?
Well she'll have ta get that foot out of her...from Isaac, if she ever plans on developing enough to fill out a pretty dress.
Is it Randy or Andrew?
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 11:39 PM GMT on September 28, 2006.

By the way Ron. I was just kidding, you didn't have to go psycho on me like that.


Its cool and everything. But I didn't go phsyco by any means. I was just simply retaliating.
I mean I said earlier that the GFDL might drop further South....but this is ridiculous!


Why do some of you post other people's comments? NOTHING OFFENSIVE! just kinda wierd.
It's..... Randrewl.
LOL. Basically the GFDL still isnt buying this system.
Darn it 03...spoiling all my fun. It is funny though.
That's your real name!?
Sorry. That is weird though. Hey, maybe it will move WEST!!!
Hi there 23, you seem to be the current archive guy on site. Please show an image of IVAN from 2 yrs ago, showing his path from TS through to Cayman and beyond. In Trinidad, and looking at the weather east of me> Many thanks>>
Oh...Oh...another Westcaster!
My real name is Ferdinand Randrewl...you can call me Randrewl.
hey everyone anybody seen nash28 lately
Ron54 that picture of the cane that just left Florida and is now in the Gulf was last years Hurricane Katrina before she blew up into a category five. Actually that was when her explosive deepening was occurring.
I live on the west coast, thank you vary much.
hello all


is it me or dos it seen like Tropical Storm Isaac is moveing S
Good Evening All. Amazing how long these left over Ivan MRE crackers and cheese spread can last. Vodka and grapefruit wash a must. Hope we don't need a new supply this year. Probably not!!
Are you Hispanic?
nash was here ~6pmGMT
wow its not me Tropical Storm Isaac is moveing S
thaxs Skyepony, no action i guess he dont stay on here that long

Hey taz
Might me the satellite Taz.
: salter hey there whats up

hi sky do you see Tropical Storm Isaac moveing S i do
Nice to see ya again neverfollow.....
Also nice to hear Taz mention a direction we have not heard here today....South!
Isaac is sitting and waiting for the trough that is about to him Taz! Steering currents are low, not for long!
i think its just building around the center taz
LOL on the GFDL Rand! Good Call, lol!
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:59 PM GMT on September 28, 2006.

wow its not me Tropical Storm Isaac is moveing S


who or what else shows its moving S?
Adios Djos.
Isaac.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


Sir Randrewl, lol
ah i see my be the high is building in and may be thats why Isaac is moveing S
Well LOL! Par for the course
Well, until the GFDL dumps the system....it is moving further South....I speak the truth.
Evening Crab!
Evening Rand and everyone else sorry Rand had to do it after breifly scanning the previous posts.
Another great pass Pulse...LOL!
No problem Crab...I'm LMAO over here!
Thanks Randrewl. Here every day off and on. Especially when so little happening. Was in Biloxi yesterday aside from casinos, still a world class disaster. Sorry Patrap MS coast the real natural disaster mess!!
To many meetings with FEMA,MEMA lately brings out the smart a-- in me. lol
to anybody
why does the qscatt miss all that area sometimes?
Is that what does that to you Crab? I thought it was just all of us.
LOL
Scatterometer is very particular. If we want to see it...it won't show us.
No Rand you folks just get the "Venting" going.lol The upper level low that creates the source to have a full draft to occur.lol
Ron5244 is this Georges 1998???
Rand did you get the 2nd mail this am.
Randrewl et al. Any thoughts on the system east of Trinidad?????? Im remembering Ivan in 04 and my visit to Grenada the week after. First time I ever saw trees with their bark stripped of and 90% of all buildings severely damaged.
Man, you guys need to watch out for Crab....he's been holding back.
Let me check my mail Pal.
If the distubance develops and does hit the US east coast, will it be NC and VA?
607. 882MB
Hey ya i have been waiting so long to join this and know im finally in. I really see no chance of 97L developing but things can and will change
Thanks Crab.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


882MB...Welcome aboard!
Where are you located?
OK well hang on gonna sent 1800 update
ISaac has been declared in the central Atlantic. It appears to be no threat to land. Read more on the 7:30 PM

Hurricane Warning Tropical Updates
Bob....You still here?
Looks like 97L is just getting sucked right up into the ULL that is controlling Isaac....this is interesting.
613. 882MB
Hi Randrewl Nice to meet you im located in beautiful Miami,Fl
hey york, we just had all that rol through here the last 2-3 hours....quite nice storms...a t on of rain...some nickle to quarter size hail, good winds up to 60. and there is a few reports of an unconfirmed tornado in western henrico county just nw of richmond...a whole 5 min from my home...lol...i drove around in both lines...the hail in the first big storm started concerning me when then hail got fairly big....i didnt think the glass would hold too well for about 2 min, but were a ok....lol
882MB...Hey neighbor...I'm up the coast in Stuart. There's many Floridians here. Welcome again.
616. 882MB
Have ya noticed that Isaac is slowing down.Well changing topic a little bit I have been obsessed with weather ever since i was young and went through Hurricane Andrew.
Opinion. Only threat (loosely used term) appears to be the wave south of Cuba moving in the direction of the GOM may slide behind current trough there. Thoughts?
618. 882MB
Randrewl im about to log off, but next time you think you can teach me too post images thank you.
Rand,mail

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northeastern Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania...
Lehigh County in eastern Pennsylvania...
this includes the city of Allentown...

* until 900 PM EDT

* at 754 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 10 miles west of
Ancient Oaks... or about 16 miles west of Allentown... moving
northeast at 40 mph.

* The tornado is will be near...
9 miles northwest of Ancient Oaks by 805 PM EDT...
Schnecksville by 815 PM EDT...

In addition to the tornado... this storm is capable of producing penny
size hail and destructive straight line winds.

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT
Thursday evening for northwest New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania.

Lat... Lon 4061 7587 4044 7571 4054 7540 4079 7563

That makes THREE Tornadoes in the Northeast this year.

F2 Tornado -Westchester
F0 Tornado -Long Island
Now a F? Tornado -Ancient Oaks
Excellent point neverfollow. Far as I know this is a wave. Now it is definitely bursting up this evening. Just a massive amount of high trades blowing around that area but I believe this one is above that. Definitely an interest. Thank you for bringing this up.
882MB..Always to help if I can....see ya.
OK Crab. Thanks.
Yes, look at that Rand. Funny season we have here. Always an ULL around!!..LOL Just have to get a system to form and next an ULL pops up next to it! Amazing. This is definately a Subtropical System.
whoa
just looking at nexrad radar shows vortex going just to the se of DC
Hurricaneblast - that does not say that there was a tornado; notice this part:

National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 10 miles west of
Ancient Oaks... or about 16 miles west of Allentown... moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Note the words "Doppler radar" and "capable of".

Three tornadoes in the NE is significant? I guess that they don't get them that often; I have had two F4 tornadoes in my area this year (the most recent less than a week ago).
03 is right. To me...even Florence was not truly a Tropical system after the turn.
Isaac...."Shaft"...is definitely not a true Tropical intity. What a year! LOL.
OK then, I can take being ignored. But it does look like that system east of here is dissipating fast. I take it that it was ITCZ inspired.
Rand,mail
I'll be back in a few....have fun y'all!
I always enjoy this place.....even Bob!
Rand, you have mail Dahhling.
You being bad 27. lol
Soyuz re-entry now occuring as they head toward a Bumpdown ,in the Kazakastan region...Landing at 8:13cst..near dawn there
Even the NHC has to be wishing for a storm they being so board at work this year last year they were hoping for a slow down ☺☻
Live feed on NASA select.from the Landing zone
Thundercloud01221991

Here is something interesting:

September 2005: 5 storms (Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Phillipe, and Rita)
September 2006: 4 storms (Florence, Gordon, Helene and Issac)

Surprising, isn't it?

Now, look at October... the new peak of the hurricane season j/k LOL
Here is a list of keys that wil put faces on the page since :) does not work

Here is Alt 1-40 their are more but I did not want to go on

Alt + 1 ☺
Alt + 2 ☻
Alt + 3 ♥
Alt + 4 ♦
Alt + 5 ♣
Alt + 6 ♠
Alt + 7
Alt + 8 ◘
Alt + 9 ○
Alt + 10 ◙
Alt + 11 ♂
Alt + 10 ♀
Alt + 13 ♪
Alt + 14 ♫
Alt + 15 ☼
















Alt + 33 is a space
"
#
$
%
&
'
(
Soyuz confirmed chute opening..3 drifting down to Bumpdown...now 8 min..away
Alt + 4 ♦

When I press this, it has the same effect as hitting the Back button...
Very Interesting we with the High building back in we may have a bad October and November
..a soyuz landing picLink
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 8:06 PM CDT on September 28, 2006.
Alt + 4 ♦

When I press this, it has the same effect as hitting the Back button...


What are you talking about???

Alt and hold then press the 4 in the Numeric Keyboard then release the 4 then release Alt


Hello all! Hey,How many named storms were there last october?
Thundercloud01221991 - What kind of computer do you have? IE recognizes Alt+4 as Back; it is impossible to type in...
Soyuz capsule with the Lug wrench out...Link
There were 7 storms last October:

2005 storms:
June - 2
July - 5
August - 5
September - 5
October - 7
November - 3
December - 1
Total = 28

2006 storms:
June - 1
July - 1
August - 3
September - 4
Total = 9
Touchdown confirmed...3 Back on mother Earth...Link
American Ansari,..the Houston Buisnesswoman..Jeff Williams..and Soviet Cmdr..Vinagrodov..now safely back home on earthLink
guys dont follow the computer models The computer models are not tracking this system very well because it is so small
Thanks!Wow,It looks like (If we went by those current numbers) we could get 5-6 named storms in October.Geez,7 last october....That does sound like the new peak!
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 8:10 PM CDT on September 28, 2006.
Thundercloud01221991 - What kind of computer do you have? IE recognizes Alt+4 as Back; it is impossible to type in...


Im sorry I use Firefox make your own list they are very usefull

Try Alt+0 release 0 1 release 1
and the other 2Link
this may run,or may not..the bandwidth may be dwindling...but lets give it a whirl..Link
Im sorry I use Firefox make your own list they are very usefull

All of them work except for Alt+4; there are other codes as well; for example, Alt+0176 (with Num Lock turned on) give you a degree symbol, , Alt+0169 gives you a copyright symbol, , etc.
U2 and Greenday are quite boring bands.
oh no 97L is invisible .... nevermind Isaac is just eating it alive.

What was the smallest hurricane ever?
again..many thanks to U2..Greenday..and musicrising.org..gibson.org..and esp..the Wunderground..for allowing that..again..
The computer models are not tracking this system very well because it is so small

What system?



From NHC:
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W
S OF 21N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 18N. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 75NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

They said the same thing about that blowup in the Caribbean the other day and nothing happened; it just died out.
MichaelSTL- the last one that I can remember was in 2000 (there may have been one in 2003 or 2004 but i'm not sure) and it was an F0 that went directly over my house. From what I know they are rare where I live.
The kind of bands I like. The good stuff!
..Crikey Mate..thats a lil bugger,,
Figures..LOL
Booyah! Y'all.
Posted By: Patrap at 1:36 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

Figures..LOL


lol, what do you mean by that?
LOL...Music...without character...nothing personal...relax
..Rob Zombies my upper limit...
Double booyahs back..I like PHI..up
..the Soyuz crew is out..and eating apples...cold morning there
BooooooYahhhh! back to y'all. We're talking music tonight. That stuff might get you banned!
That is not an outdoor sport.....although I never go hunting without my ipod!
Hm, its alright to get off topic once in awhile I'm sure.

But maybe they'll cut some slack. Considering the tropics are DEAD FOR DISCUSSION right now.

Notice only "Dead for discussion", but not actually "Dead".

You get it..
notice the beginningings of trouble..west of Jamacia.in the western Carabbean.Link
Oh yeah Ron...It is definitely DEAD man! LOL!
..this may be the start of the interaction..at the surface layer..of the Yucatan..model sniffs
Pat is on to something....I see that. Briefly mentioned it earlier. Wow...do we have a blob?
Posted By: Patrap at 1:56 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

notice the beginningings of trouble..west of Jamacia.in the western Carabbean.


Not to sure I'd put faith in those blobs if I were you. Look at the many other blobs this season. However, I do feel with the NOGAPS's constant indication of development..we may get something.
680. BtnTx
Ron5244 your good music to me is just noise (I am 52 years old). But that is okay as I don't mind the sharing the links like you and Patrap when the tropics are slow (as we wait to see what develops)
..blob vector..165degrees bearingLink..in the Vis...
..no faith..that would be religion..LOL..but the obs are what they are..
Posted By: Randrewl at 1:57 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

Oh yeah Ron...It is definitely DEAD man! LOL!


I hope you weren't being sarcastic with me there. I know where you live! DUNDUNDUN! Stuart FL. I'm in Port Saint Lucie. Watch your step! jk. As much as I love sarcasam, I cannot stand when it is used on me. lol
The Carib Blob.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


..dont dish if ya cant eat tabasco..my view..LOL!
anyone who would call MNF music performance..by "boring Bands",...cant be much of an Observer!..LOL!
Ron5244...LOL...No I was just agreeing. And I do know where you live man!
..Grinning real wide..............
..still in FEMA land in his trailer.Sipping ..slurpp;;;urp..Bloody Mary..with pickled snap bean...scuse!
Posted By: BtnTx at 2:00 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

Ron5244 your good music to me is just noise (I am 52 years old). But that is okay as I don't mind the sharing the links like you and Patrap when the tropics are slow (as we wait to see what develops)


Well, if you looked deeper into it...you would understand why more musical talent is put into that rather than songs from an artist such as Sinatra. I'm guessing since you're 52 years old you're quite found of his music.

Anyway, Sinatra only sang. Did not write his lyrics, did not write the backround music. The bands I listen to, they write their own lyrics (which are most often very meaninful and poetic) and they write and play ALL of the backround music. Plus they sing, and do another type of vocal express that wouldn't appeal to you by any means. Which is fine, however the music I listen to is NOT nosie. It is MORE talent than any of the artist in your time. Think about it.

I respect your opinion on the sound. I would not expect an older person to like it.
..need mo...tabasco,...the lil MRE tabasco bottles make nice condiments for the Bloody Marys.....
loves tobasco
Posted By: Randrewl at 2:04 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

Ron5244...LOL...No I was just agreeing. And I do know where you live man

lol, we got killed with Jeanne, Fracnes, AND...Wilma.
.."Start Spreading....the News,....Im leaving...today...Im gonna"...
Justrick..you killing bud lites again?
can't get on the air gutaire with that
aahhh...few dead....some wounded
Frank...heres looking atcha..Kid..Link
"gimme back my bullets"
whew! wasnt too ruff here but lost power for about an hour, just got it back, (after a 5 min false alarm earlier)

uuhhhh folks, can i say it..........

if that bugger just crossing us gets loose....

pssst.. looks like its going W....sshhh
..you got replacements for the casulaties Rick?
went down to watch em over the hill again....doing pretty good...chest full.....dddeeerrrnn......going to make me go to wally world and get a pole
..rough squall there?
we got killed with Jeanne, Fracnes, AND...Wilma

I don't know how long a resident of this area you are but that is all just part of the program.
I wouldn't say killed...but inconvenienced greatly. Mississippi and Louisiana got killed as well as Punta Gorda, FL.
I did not get killed.
If I do.. someday I'll tell you about it.
The little Sinatra shut down below of mine was only to prove a point.

I have nothing against him.
always plan ahead........ war is hell
Ron..If you were joking about Sinatra I apologize in advance. If not perhaps you should do some math... us 50 yo olds are the era of Stones, Beatles, Elton John, Eagles, Buffet...should I go on? Sinatra is of my parents era - who are in their 80s. Even my college age kids listen to "my music" becaus ethere modern talent is scarce...except of course country! All that said U2 pretty good but Bono pretty close to myt age!
Yes it was much more than "Squalls along the gulf stream"
go bib.....lol
Posted By: Randrewl at 2:14 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

we got killed with Jeanne, Fracnes, AND...Wilma

I don't know how long a resident of this area you are but that is all just part of the program.
I wouldn't say killed...but inconvenienced greatly. Mississippi and Louisiana got killed as well as Punta Gorda, FL.
I did not get killed.
If I do.. someday I'll tell you about it.


No need to get all senseitive towards it. It was a simple expression. If you do in fact get killed, can you please refrain from telling me about it though? I do not feel like being visited by anything immortal anytime soon.
711. BtnTx
Ron5244, Sinatra is way before my time. I mostly like 80's and 90's rock. My 19 year old son has shown me some recent music that I can like. Everyone has their own music tastes and that is ok with me. I enjoy this blog for what I can learn and I also enjoy the personal touch that you all add in between. This is a really great blog. All of the satellite links and model links have really amazed me. And Ron I really liked your Hurricane Deathe post Earlier Today today
"Squalls along the gulf stream

Is that a fish storm Crab?
Ron5244...Too late....When I ever get killed by a Cat 2 or 3 storm...I will come back and tell you all about it.
hey pat hey pat.....lol got any...ahhhhhh.... La Grange...... heard they got a lot of pretty girls out there
The GOM..Wunderground west watchers ..Wave goodbye, Linkto head out..on the newest west threat..
No I wish.lol I have had reality checks twice in my life 69 and 05 so to continue the phrase "a big storm headin this way" (dont want no mo.) lol
The Rick requestLink
Posted By: bibballen at 2:15 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

Ron..If you were joking about Sinatra I apologize in advance. If not perhaps you should do some math... us 50 yo olds are the era of Stones, Beatles, Elton John, Eagles, Buffet...should I go on? Sinatra is of my parents era - who are in their 80s. Even my college age kids listen to "my music" becaus ethere modern talent is scarce...except of course country! All that said U2 pretty good but Bono pretty close to myt age!


You will not find modern talent from rappers. In the music I listen to however, you will. The Stones, The Beatels, and many bands of your time played instruments. Many of the same instruments the bands I listen to play. In that case, the iggnorant statement of "Your music is just nosie" is not acceptable to me. The vocals happen to differ some, but singing is abundant and it is done well. Sinatra was still around making music at your time. Check out his discography. Then you'll know how stupid you sound. Perhaps you should do some math.
ZZTop..reloadedLink
pat uses that to get rid of me for about 5.5 minutes....
97L...It would be embarassing to get killed by this!

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


Posted By: Ron5244 at 2:06 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.
you would understand why more musical talent is put into that rather than songs from an artist such as Sinatra. I'm guess since you're 52 years old you're quite found of his music.

My mother's generation listened to Elvis, which I believe would be considered (musically) after Sinatra. I am 51 years old so that would put Sinatra two generations(musically) before my time. lol. Being as old as I am which must seem old to you I'm sure,lol I'm at the least second generation rock and roll. Us in out early fifties grew up to groups like Led Zepplin, Skynard, Rolling stones, Eagles, Black sabath (my first concert) etc. far removed from Sinatra. lol just thought you might want to know

JER
OK nite all and all a good nite must face another day of trying to meet FEMAs delight.lol
heres it from 82..SwedenLink
FEMA fun...see ya Crab!
Posted By: BtnTx at 2:17 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

Ron5244, Sinatra is way before my time. I mostly like 80's and 90's rock. My 19 year old son has shown me some recent music that I can like. Everyone has their own music tastes and that is ok with me. I enjoy this blog for what I can learn and I also enjoy the personal touch that you all add in between. This is a really great blog. All of the satellite links and model links have really amazed me. And Ron I really liked your Hurricane Deathe post Earlier Today today


First off, sorry for my disrespect. Reason I though you liked Sinatra was mainly because of my dad. He is 50, and likes him. Anyway, 80s and 90s rock is good music too. I have a wide taste among music. From the screaming loud, to slow music.
As I've said before JER....

The Stones, The Beatels, and many bands of your time played instruments. Many of the same instruments the bands I listen to play. In that case, the iggnorant statement of "Your music is just nosie" is not acceptable to me. The vocals happen to differ some, but singing is abundant and it is done well.
nite sandcrab
and they were wearing cheap sunglasses..;.lmao
This is a view from 16 year old.
Zepplin, Skynard, R.S., black sabbath and all of those people are good. Most everything before that is basically swing dancing to us, which we dont like very much. Rap is good, (if you like explicit poetry). All our generation's bands are good. Most of the stuff between Black sabbath and our generation isnt good, and everything else is ok.
..Ack! COFF!..HERES SOMETHING FROM UNDERNEATH THE VAULT..BE CAREFUL..YOUR NOT GOING TO BELIEVE THIS ONELink
Any takers on an Isaac Hurricane! Tightening up rather well tonight!
Rand - I am rethinking the salon idea. Go to your blog for alternative ideas.
There's the MAN!
736. BtnTx
Ron5244 - No problem. This is a great blog and I enjoy it very much. Informative and enternaining. Beats the heck out of prime time TV I think!
Ron5244-No offense taken, just thought you might want to know that we old folks listened "to just noise" too. No accounting for taste as they say.

JER
heh are TS is around 29.2N and 55W
Randrewl, 97L probably wouldn't even have been mentioned if Taz hadn't emailed the Navy and made them list it. I'm sure that was the way it happened.
ahh that was good....but I must leave ya'll for a minute.....wounded and dead.... must be relocated to make room
lol, I'd say so too, BtnTx.
The Taz..evening, Taz
Just want to let everyone know...

I don't usually wonder off topic and mention things not having to do with weather.

Tonight the Tropics nothing more than boring so thats the only reason why.

Unless, I wanted to sit here and aimlessly speculate.
Hendrix investLink
GoofOff...You are right!
hey Patrap
whats down
lol...don't go there swFLboy.......come in here starting a fight right off the bat.......lmao...j/k
whats all a way around lol
okey dokey pat...going to stump ya........30 days in the hole......
Whos up for another game of "Name that image"?

I enjoyed posting the images for you all to guess earlier.
deep purple..... oh hell gave it away
but like many bands do they get to commercially involved and the record co's rob them of their talent and make them into what'll sell.

I hate when that happens.
sebastian your as old as my dad!
Name that image...go!

lol @ Ron
brown suff on the top....green stuff in the middle...and blue stuff on the bottom
Posted By: JUSTRICK at 2:48 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

lol @ Ron


lol, well don't sit there and laugh at my good jokes. Name already! :D
Posted By: Ron5244 at 7:43 PM PDT on September 28, 2006.

Whos up for another game of "Name that image"?

I enjoyed posting the images for you all to guess earlier

me me me
Posted By: JUSTRICK at 2:49 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

brown suff on the top....green stuff in the middle...and blue stuff on the bottom


This is NAME the image, not DESCRIBE the image. But nice try though!
Dennis...
764. BtnTx
Posted By: Ron5244 at 9:37 PM CDT on September 28, 2006.

Just want to let everyone know...

I don't usually wonder off topic and mention things not having to do with weather.

Tonight the Tropics nothing more than boring so thats the only reason why.

Unless, I wanted to sit here and aimlessly speculate.




Ron - I think "wandering off the tropics a little" is a good thing as we all have to do something as we "wait and see." That's what makes this blog so "addicting."
thats the storm with the rain and windy stuff
did...oops...wrong blog....that should have went to my shrink
Ivan
wishcasterboy-yeah and don't forget it,lol.j/k

JER
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 2:51 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

Dennis...


Winner!

Next one...


dennis
hear ya JER
jeanne
Anybody here a vet?
Everlasting Frances! No Brainer! Hated that storm!
andrew
name that storm
lol
Or Jeanne, does it really matter lol!
its too small to be ivan, to well organized to be anythin else, so i would follow stl.
Oh! oh.... emm ! Jeanne
USMC 80-86...
pat's still looking for deep purple...lmao
dgcoop got it first.

Next one....

Taz, looks to be like its an extra large piece of cloudiness. it also looks subtropical.
Ron, Katrina
Andrew
Georges..98
and it's dhcoop
97 is reduced to a pebble in the sea! But, ya know what LB is still there, haha!
but thanks!
pat you still chewing on celery
Pop quiz

Deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever

a. Great Hurricane of 1780

b. Hurricane Fifi

c. Galveston Hurricane of 1900

d. Dominican Republic Hurricane

e. Hurricane Mitch

No Cheating!
FiFi just sounds evil! I will take that one!
Posted By: dhcoop at 2:58 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

Andrew


You got it again!

Next...

Ron com'on... "stupid"... just kiddin around. So I checked. Sinatra released 30 albums before I was five. Cannot forget Ivan. My first concert started "Ive seen all good people"... Next concert started "Screen door slams"...Any guesses???
a. Great Hurricane of 1780

How can anybody not know this?
Irene
hhhmmm......f ?
1780 Just a guess since its probably the oldest so they would be the least prepared.
Mitch killed a ton of people in landslides though
http://www.floridadisaster.org/brm/Images/irene.jpg

Irene, 1999
C. Galveston
Mike wins
By the way, the deadliest storm in the world struck Bangladesh in 1970, killing over 500,000 by some estimates...
Urp!...
E: Mitch Easy!!
celery coming back on ya huh
Posted By: dhcoop at 3:03 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

Irene


And yet again. lol




Hurricane Anna....1961.


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:)
810. BtnTx
Posted By: bibballen at 10:03 PM CDT on September 28, 2006.

Ron com'on... "stupid"... just kiddin around. So I checked. Sinatra released 30 albums before I was five. Cannot forget Ivan. My first concert started "Ive seen all good people"... Next concert started "Screen door slams"...Any guesses???


I say "Yes"
that was a small smile. let me see if I can do better... :-))
Who was taking the body count in 1780. Reliability questionable to say the least!!
Betsy...1965.

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has a sack full of dead and wounded.... starting on second sack
Smallest hurricane/typhoon/cyclone

a. Hurricane Charley

b. supper typhoon mike

c. Cyclone Tracy

d. Hurricane Iniki

e. Cyclone Larry
c. Cyclone Tracy (60 miles wide; Tip at 1,350 miles wide was the largest)
define "smallest"...:-)
The GREAT HURRICANE OF 1780. Similar to the Great U.S. Hurricane.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Xangsane to skirt China's Hainan, bringing heavy rains, wind

Typhoon Xangsane (Philippine codename: Milenyo) killed scores in the Philippines. It weakened into a storm with winds of 69 mph as it passed over Metro Manila and moved to the South China Sea Thursday evening, heading west toward Vietnam at 14 mph with gusts of up to 88 mph.

Xangsane is the Laotian word for elephant.
I guess if you lived in the Philippines you wouldn't consider the weather boring. It has been 9 years since I was over there, but a 50 mph wind would flatten half the buildings I saw then. Haven't seen any reports on just how bad the damage was.
wonder what the models did with that one...lmao
Ok got a real hard one for ya mike.
Posted By: JUSTRICK at 3:16 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

wonder what the models did with that one...lmao


ahaha, they were thrown for quite some loop!
Subtropical Freak....Isaac.

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Heres my "Great United States" hurricane. haha.

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What storms remnants helped spon the Columbus Day Storm.
The GREAT HURRICANE OF 1780. Similar to the Great U.S. Hurricane

LOL

Where did you make that up from??? There is no track for it... and it did not hit Texas...
Splain this. If the 1900 Galveston cane was a total surprise how in the world do we put any credence in the toll of the 1780 storm. HMMM??
Skye...Was it a Typhoon or an elephant...or both?
Has to be horrible either way.
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 3:19 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

The GREAT HURRICANE OF 1780. Similar to the Great U.S. Hurricane

LOL

Where did you make that up from??? There is no track for it... and it did not hit Texas...


lol,I made them both on paint. lmao.
30 seconds
Typhoon Freda (Taz and I were talking about the Columbus Day Storm just last night)...
neverfollow...And someone answer how we have historical tracks for storms that we did not know existed?
With terrorism on the rise! Car insurance companies join the bandwagon! Apparently we will not be able to save a bunch of money on our car insurance anymore!
Dam!
Wishcasterboy-went through the Columbus Day Storm when I was a kid,remember it well

JER
Well the image did not post!
Rand At the risk of sounding Coon. Yeah you right. Not to offend that's the Cajun Coon A.
Apparently we will not be able to save a bunch of money on our car insurance anymore!

Talk like that won't get you invited to the Christmas party!
Storm that is used in the Hurricane Party myth.
you can't get this one!
I mean if we have telegraphs and word of mouth about Hurricanes when we had no reliable communications networks in place.....How the Hell do we know the true track of these babies?
Well there is an image that was supposed to go with that, it is hilarious! I don't know how to post images from my computer though, any help?
wishcaster...was there supposed to be a link?
THE GREAT UNITED STATES HURRICANE. (my creation) ALSO KNOW AS HURRICANE DEATH. (just a joke from before)

MAX WINDS - 225MPH
LOWEST PRESSURE - 821MB

HURRICANE FORE WINDS FELT ON EVERY INCH OF THE U.S. EAST, AND GULF COAST.

MAX T.S WIND FILED - 525 MILES WIDE
MAX HURRRICANE WIND FIELD - 330 MILES WIDE
Track, much less the death toll!!! Not to sound grim.
dhcoop a link to somewhere, or a event?
Good one Ron. Yukk Yukk
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 3:27 AM GMT on September 29, 2006.

Sebastian i've been praying for another Columbus Day for years, mybe this year.


Not a smart prayer, if you want the excitement of a cane, go chase them but you don't want to wish them on speople, not even yourself. IMHO

Nite All
JER
I'll give you a hink: Woodstock.
Camile?
the one where you said "you can't get this one". I thought you were pointing to a storm
I have no idea how the heck they tracked storms back in the 1800s.

I mean, how can those predictions be right? We didn't have any way to get to these storms all the way out there. I don't understand how it was possible to follow a tropical system back then.
Wishcaster=was no myth, an entire apartment full of people died in Camile during hurricane party. Forget how many sure someone has a link to story though, very tragic.
JER
Are we really better prepared?
Today we have the miriad of monitoring devices. In the 1700's and 1800's what did they have then? Some ship that managed to make a port with hell-raising tales of a monster storm. Then that was spread around.....until the next ship or island got hit. That was it.
Today....with all we have to protect us...do people really prepare or care?
No, not until you can prove it is going to destroy them!
We were probably better off not really knowing.
Sebastian,

In 95 we had a vary nasty extratropical cyclone come trough our small town of Battle Ground. It flooded the streets, took off my naboors roof and shut of power for two days. Ever since then I've been obsessed.
NOAA has heard our on going Methane/cow debate & has responded by releasing the results of their study today... some hightlights..

SCIENTISTS PINPOINT CAUSE OF SLOWING METHANE EMISSIONS
Trend May Revert to 'Typical' Rate of Increase, With Climate Impacts

In recent decades, extracting and distributing fossil fuels have been a major source of atmospheric methane in northern latitudes. A slowdown in the production of coal, oil and natural gas following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 reduced methane emissions during the 1990s, along with an ongoing drought that shrunk tropical wetlands, according to the study. Spurred on by China's economic development, methane emissions have risen again since 1999, but this recent increase has been masked by a simultaneous dip in northern wetland emissions caused by dryer conditions there since 1999.

In the 1980s, methane increased at a fairly steady rate of about 12 parts per billion (ppb) per year. That rate dropped to 4 ppb during the following decade, with much larger fluctuations. Carbon dioxide molecules in the atmosphere outnumber those of methane 200 times. This is partly attributed to the fact that methane's average lifetime in the atmosphere is 8.5 years, compared to carbon dioxide, which is well over 100 years. However, methane is 20 times more efficient as a heat-trapping greenhouse gas.

Methane is typically created in oxygen-deprived environments, such as flooded wetlands, peat bogs, rice paddies, landfills, termite colonies and the digestive tracts of cows and other ruminant animals. However, a recent study showed that plants create methane in oxygen-rich environments as well. The gas also escapes during fossil fuel extraction and distribution and is emitted during wildfires.


There was the typical sweet NOAA graphs in there too.
Good Sebastian.
Ron, this is for you; click to see the future track of Issac:



LOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!
Wishcastr-Ony got it cause my brother was at Woodstock, thought camile was the same year,

JER
Geez Skye...We're all doomed!
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Hey Sebastian. Here's one for you. I am in the real estate biz. I had a contract on the shopping ctr in Pass Christian same exact site as the apt complex you refer to. Guess what 35' of surge wiped same place slick in Katrina. Great location, bad Karma. Oh well. Spit happens!!??
Let's try this again!

With terrorism on the rise! Car insurance companies join the bandwagon! Apparently we will not be able to save a bunch of money on our car insurance anymore!
"Posted By: MichaelSTL at 11:40 PM EDT on September 28, 2006.
Ron, this is for you; click to see the future track of Issac:"

You cheated. You stole that forecast track from StormTop.
who can afford it now
Don't understand! For those who know, I can get the image in now but it will not display! little box with an X through it. It is a jpeg image, any thoughts?
Skye, Camille 24 foot surge a tad short of Katrina. But's what's a mere 11 feet difference of pounding waves among friends.
Why something needs to be done about Global Warming:



LOL!
Forming close to this time of year in the bahamas. This storm tracked shortly NE then to the NW becoming a Cat 1. due to high pressure the hurricane was forced south were it struck nassau as a Cat 4. It then slowly moved NW striking extreme southern Florida as a Cat 2. It continued to treck NW hitting the Florida Panhandle as a tropical storm. It then moved NE becoming extratropical over South Carolina and lost its identity over Quebec.
This storm formed in a vary inactive hurricane season with only 3 storms. People feared it would be a repeat of the Okeechobee Hurricane.
evening all

been out at a function all evening and the weather was just wild. Torrential rain, thunder and lightning like sticks of dynamite, power outages probably from lightning strikes and now the wind is out of the NW but the pressure is high at 1015.4 mb.

Anyone got aguess as to why the wind would be out of the NW at Grand Cayman ?
This suggests a circulation of sorts to our E but again not with that high a surface pressure.
Maybe a front digging S from the GOM ?
Geez Michael....We're all doomed!
is ca overe due for a powerfull wind storm
kman....maybe this will help.

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kman~front coming at ya. It's nearly cleared here...66.9 east coast of FL...chilly.
That would be correct Kman. That was the 8pm surface map, and it keeps digging south and east. There is also a ULL over Cuba which probably enhanced the t-storms this evening.
There is talk of this front stalling & festering...
randrewl

I saw that but why the NW wind ?
The wind is always out of the SE this time of year unless we have a front pushing SE or there is a circulation to the E of us. Neither one seems plausible now.
My home weather station shows 1015.4 as the pressure and it is calibrated regularly.
Hope nothing is brewing right on top of us.
Still raining and lightning outside
well if it is a front ( and it looks that way ) it has a lot of energy. better pray it doesn't stall out and sit here for any length of time
kman...you probably just have some low level stuff happening. I've been thinking about you there for a few hours looking at this Blob. The trades should be working in your favor. Let us know if anything turns up different. Your pressure is still good.
front stalling & festering...

Skye.....that kind of talk won't get you invited to the Christmas party either.
randrewl

I will certainly keep you all posted. After all, anything starting here will likely head to the GOM.
I bet you we had 4 inches of rain in the last 4 hrs and probably a gazillion volts of electricity discharged LOL
Jingle Bells!
Jingle Bells!
I've been watching that kman. Looked pretty electrical. It's not done yet from what I see.
Interesting wind report you gave. I would think from the opposite direction if it were feeding a front.
well I am going to turn in for the night
If it is still nasty in the morning I will let you all know
It was real frog strangler here since noon today and continuing !.
gnite all
Hey Story.
From Master's blog entry today...The Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula could see some development early next week, when a strong cold front is expected to push off the East Coast of the U.S. and stall out over this region. Guess he's not gettin invited either...lol. & i'm a chic so ya'll wouldn't dare leave me off the list;)
Guess he's not gettin invited either...lol. & i'm a chic so ya'll wouldn't dare leave me off the list;)

Oh heck...everyone's invited as usual! Funny!
Kman, if you are still here the weak upper low is just to your NE. There is another strong ULL just Southeast of Haiti, which is creating NW shear across your region.
Pulse......I found your car insurance commercial. Poor little Gecko.

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And in the process, destroying 97L with SouthEast Shear.
Why don't we start naming ULL's lol, I think we would have been through the greeks by now.
I live for ULL's...It's what I do.
Thanks for your mail Rand! I will take you up on that offer sometime when it is convienient for ya! have a good night!
Yeah...you too.
Wasnt the doc saying there wasnt any shear?
...tell that to 97L
benirica.....Here's your Island. Sleep well.

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In other news! An anti-cyclone gets stranded in the central atlantic and appears to be seperating 97L from Isaac at this time. The phrase "To Little To Late" comes to mind for 97L, as for Isaac could mean Hurricane!
Sorry! I had to put my sunglasses on after that one Rand lol!
Sorry about the Flash....Isaac might have been a Hurricane in his day....but this storm is not.
That guy played Chef on South Park. He's a scientoligist you know.
The blog has become vary quite.
I am just amazed at all the ULL's Rand! New one just to the NW of 97L pushing NW through the trough! Actually, I think that is an old one, can't remember them all anymore!
Ok...so? He has a Scientologist shaved head. What?
I read the TWD yesterday morning.....there was no way I could comprehend all the features they mentioned.
I was amazed they were able to honestly put that one together. It's been a hell of a season!
Pulse....We need to be watching off the Florida coast around 30 and 80. There's a low center off there today.
Looks like the consensus is that 97L Dies....


is 97l trying to make a comeback ?
Throw some evidence on the table stormy.
not sure just looking at wv ir is down asking thanks
ULL, or ULL's lol, in front, Anticyclone behind, 97L Dies.
Little piece of mess is trying to band though lol!
Pulse...have you run the models? 4 out of 5 show this monster Low off the Canary Islands after the energy exits the CONUS.
been showing this since yesterday. Really weird.
Trivia Question! What happens when a low pressure center (97L) is sandwiched between 2 ULL's to the SW and NW, an Anti Cyclone to it's E and a Tropical Storm to it's NNE? "Side Note" We have to mention the trough also.
That is wierd, maybe round 2 for them this year! Already took one monument for the area!
Sounds like 97L better find something to hold on to in that situation.
That monster low would drive the HP west also, moreso than normal this time of year!
ProgressivePulse...HP West...oh no. Could be trouble!
With High Pressure this Strong...who could complain?


97L...out of Blackout.

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We will have to wait and see
Is anyone on this morning
930. 882MB
Hey thundercloud im logging off right now bcause i have to go to class
I have 7 minutes before I have to log off to go to school
Is that an eye I see in 97L????

...lol
Yea snips looks like a little wrap around action. Have a good day everyone.
Morning All...I'm off for the day but just checking in....Oh My God...Issac is GOING WEST!!!!!............See Yall Later...
Good morning everyone.
Good morning Nellie, and Nash
good morning everyone

after an absolute deluge here last night it is just overcast now but seems to besetting up for more of the same.
pressure is steady at 1013.6 with 1 or 2 mph wind out of the N
There is a small " blob" that has been sitting just off the coast of Nicaragua near the border with Honduras and the convection has maintained itself for some time.Pressures onshore are 29.85 in.
This area needs to be watched at this time of year.
Morning Crab.
Morning everyone - oh boo hoo...97l died (she says sarcastically). Can't say I'll miss that little dude... And Rand...trying to stir up something "monstrous" in the carribean or something and then calling for it to make a westward move - how dare you!
bb soon
school run time
I have a question maybe someone could help me out i don't understand why people keep saying 97l doesn't exist anymore then why is there still computer models tracking it?
Miami- we are just wishful and hopeful thinking - as long as there are computer models tracking it, it technically DOES exist - however, everyone seems to think it has a short life ahead of it and it is heading out to sea which makes it not so exciting to view - same ole, same ole.
got it saddlegait thanks now i understand so the chances of this system developing aren't that great
Apparently not - or the chances of it developing into a land grabber anyways.
morning all! :) TGIF!!!!




97L does exist, but it's poorly organized atm..... the gfdl can't even develop the storm at all.....
thanks saddlegait i appreciate the help.
The earliest this could become a tropical depression is Sunday.

With that said by Dr. Masters, I still have all the faith I had in 97L developing.

It was not expected to become a depression yesterday, not expected today, not expected tomorrow, and the EARLIEST time it can develop is Sunday. Therefore, throwing this 97L out the window wouldn't be a smart idea until early next week when we know more about this disturbance.
i will be the first to come out and say that for all on northern GOM..the season is over for us here..use that gas you were saving for the generator
Very interesting the persistance with 97L. This will probably track with the BAM shallow for a bit. The heavy ridging that the gfs is predicting could keep this to the south more after that.
Half day today!
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 1:39 PM GMT on September 29, 2006.

Half day today!


Half day for me too. Thats why I figured not to go in for today.

I would have to go in at 6:55 and end off at 12:00 today.
But if you live in South Texas or South Florida I would hold onto the generator gas for a while. Same with East NC.
Meanwhile, Isaac has more of the look of an actual tropical cyclone today...
I am curious to see if 97L survives or not.
nogaps....Link
Dr. Masters is running a little behind this morning I guess.
re: "Dr. Masters is running a little behind this morning I guess."

its so boring, he is gonna sleep right thru his update! jo

Potential areas ofLink Development
..still very early in Hawaii
Posted By: rwdobson at 2:19 PM GMT on September 29, 2006.

But if you live in South Texas or South Florida I would hold onto the generator gas for a while. Same with East NC.


That was quite specific. What makes you believe this?
..not much happening...Link
When the tropics sleep on Dr. Masters, Dr. Masters sleeps on the tropics!

Works that way with me too.
When the Tropics sleep on Jeff Masters, Jeff Masters sleeps on the Tropics!

Same with me. lol
Mondays surface analaysisLink
SSTs for todayLink
once more..SSts for TodayLink
S Texas and S Florida are far enough south that the pattern over the rest of the US does not necessarily apply down there. A trough could miss a storm, failing to turn it away from the US and allowing it to hit these extreme southern locations.

And Eastern NC sticks so far out into the Atlantic, a storm that is turning out to sea could still clip it.

Not saying anything is going to hit, but these are the regions where something still might hit.
Model briefing..a must readLink
..tyats not a valid scenerio..historically ..I must add
historically, s florida and nc are vulnerable in october. texas is a stretch, i guess.
new blog
This is quite some season! Look at all the U.S. major hurricane landfalls! WOW!

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