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New disturbance 99L near Bermuda headed out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on October 06, 2006

An area of disturbed weather near 30N, 70W, about 300 miles southwest of Bermuda, has been designated "Invest 99L" by the National Hurricane Center this morning. Radar animation from Bermuda shows a large area of heavy rain over the ocean to the east of the island. This area of disturbed weather is moving to the north-northeast, and is expected to turn eastward this weekend. Some of 99L's heavy thunderstorms may affect Bermuda tonight and Saturday. The QuikSCAT satellite pass at 6:15am EDT this morning found a large, well-defined surface circulation, and peak winds in the 20-25 mph range. The disturbance is under 30 knots of wind shear from strong upper-level westerly winds. This shear is preventing heavy thunderstorms from building on the west side of 99L. Wind shear is expected to be in the 20-40 knot range for the next two days. The disturbance is over warm waters of 28 degrees C, but water temperatures cool rapidly to 26C just north of Bermuda. Between the wind shear and cooler waters, I doubt 99L has time to organize into a tropical or subtropical depression.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "99L".

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather continues over the southern Gulf of Mexico, but is not expected to develop due to 20 knots of wind shear. High wind shear dominates most of the rest of the tropical Atlantic. This shear is forecast to relax early next week over the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, so we'll have to keep an eye on these regions next week.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

it would make common sense to put the shutters up in mid december if youre leaving for that long
..a chill for sure SWLA..looking very forward to it..but the Fear is we may see those FEMA trailer fires on the N shore..first..sadly..
Pat, did y'all see many fires last year?
night all.sweet dreams
Posted By: SFlHurricane06 at 10:48 PM EDT on October 06, 2006.

I am in Boca Raton; hurricane 23.

Cool...I live a few blocks away from the NHC in miami.I used to live in homestead right of 312 and US 1 when andrew hit.
G'nite auburn.
...nite, I mean Auburn. Have a good one.
Posted By: SFlHurricane06 at 2:39 AM GMT on October 07, 2006.
I think that next week we will have development in the caribbean. The pattern clearly favors it with low shear levels and the upward motion pulse coming. Anyone agree?

Warm water too ... sounds right to me.
I hear an Andrew story coming...
Brief re-cap:
Hinky systems within the Bermuda triangle are directly influenced by the Bigfoot effect.
Wow...I learn something everyday on this Blog man!
I remeber when the forecast was further north at first and for Boca Raton to be in the direct path of Andrew originally. Very scary.....
I hear that too man!
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 10:54 PM EDT on October 06, 2006.

I hear an Andrew story coming...

What is that remark for???Are u bored?I nearly lost my life with that hurricane.
I'm going to Bob's for some coffee.....
I know we heard the story 100 times this season.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 2:45 AM GMT on October 07, 2006.
Posted By: SFlHurricane06 at 10:39 PM EDT on October 06, 2006.

...What part of south florida do you live at if you dont mine me asking.

Lots of family scattered around Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

Oops, that wasn't for me!
Short lived.....just stunk up the area!!!!
LMAO cowboy!
Evening all so it appears to remain silent to the tropical degree, so now its time to let the silent times occur, it has been fun but glad we did not have to run from any hurricanes or storms that may have ruined any of my friends for this season just run.
Posted By: LowerCal at 3:03 AM GMT on October 07, 2006.

Lots of family scattered around Miami-Dade and Broward counties.


...LowCal, that just don't sound right.
Hey Crab!
Good afternoon Rand my friend hope you have had a wonderful day.
...so true, Crab...maybe one will not raise its big ugly head...hope not.
We must stay on topic and talk tropics but the drinks are all thats stirring now.lol
Yeah Crab...obviously a lighthearted evening here...how bout you?
...that's a heckuva good team, Rand. FEMA could've used their help that's for sure...lol
Hadf a good jam last nite we destroyed Buffets tunes.lol
Posted By: K8eCane at 2:48 AM GMT on October 07, 2006.
well yeah
after all shutters arent a major endeavor unless you have 27 windows

Alright, that's funny and I believe you take my point.
Very impressive professionals!
Nothing but the best.
hhhmm....where was I.....
Posted By: K8eCane at 2:49 AM GMT on October 07, 2006.
it would make common sense to put the shutters up in mid december if youre leaving for that long

... and I still believe you take my point.
...Crab, where is the gig?
We were not selective we put the hatchcat fromm ZZ top to Arosmith.lol
hi guys

buttons working again and shear is falling in the SW Caribbean
Link
Butchering ZZTop is not allowed!
Rand just a jam session here at the house from some old group members that I played with years ago it was terible but yet fun.lol
...thanks, Kman...how's it going in paradise?
I was the youngest at 51.lol
Kman has buttons....very nice mon!
Youngsters....What can you do?
Fired up the old Marshall amp and the 1973 Les Paul standard and made lots of noise.lol
moonlight

just perfect tonight
Weekend is here, just got back from dinner, nothing to do tomorrow and golf on Sunday.
PLUS, nothing brewing in this neck of the woods.
How goes it up N ??
hey Rand

are your buttons working LOL
That sounds real nice Crab! I miss it myself.
I have a box full of buttons...thank you. Glad you're operating tonight.
It was from the last group I played in "Never Twice" (the older the bull the stiffer the horn) LOL
You play Rand?
...sounds perfect, Kman. Here? well, it's nice--cool and a beautiful harvest moon over the lake. -- sounds like a perfect weekend there for you for sure.
well its good to be back in operation even though there is not much to link about, if you know what I mean.

Pressures are relatively high in the Caribbean and the new invest looks like history already.
I still think we will see something down this way with all the hot water that has not been disturbed all season
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 3:06 AM GMT on October 07, 2006. (hide)
Posted By: LowerCal at 3:03 AM GMT on October 07, 2006.

Lots of family scattered around Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

...LowCal, that just don't sound right.


LOL, yeah. Fortunately they aren't ... in spite of last season. :-D
LOL Rand I understand I have my stepson in the studio doing there 2nd cd the Group is "Atomship" out of my sound range.lol
554. BtnTx
It seems as all that activity in BOC/GOM dying out this eve. Cool front coming thru here in Baytown tonight. I guess i will get fire place ready for tomorrow night as it is supposed to get down to upper 50's
I am still in the CSNY stage myself.lol
guys don't get into the music thing
I have one son who plays drums and guitar and another who claims he is " managing " a rock group named " Rogue Armada "
When they play at the house things get just a little testy !!
jjjeeessshhhhh...zztop...areo smith...hatchets has gotten roudy.....
the Caribbean blob near 15 N 82 W is now under only 10 to 20 knots of shear. We will need to watch this area over the next few days as shear is forecast to relax big time next week
kman, why not music is a soothing thing it is written about weather as Tom Rush sings "This old wind just goes around this old world forever"
I could just go back to the driving range where nobody spoke english..got along just fine
Rand, I dont understand what they are playing.lol Quess my Mom and Dad said the same thing.lol
eewwwww sry rand...lmao
Have a bud on me Rick.
hey Crab

I do encourage the boys to be sure. The one that drums is very good and is only 15. Also plays bass guitar and lead guitar.
The " manager" doesn't play anything but loves his Ipod

LMAO
both still in school so there is hope !
ok then......long as your buying
kaman, I got so disgusted with band members that I bought all the equipment and hired the persons to play for years due to the effect that I will take my toys and go home. LOL I solved that I own it all.lol
whhewwww think that milk in the fridge has got to go.......
I have recorded 11 songs with 2 different groups.lol "Little David and the Giants" and "Mississippi Funk" LOL more funk than fact theses days.lol
a neat solution Crab. Will keep it in mind.

Well I think I will call it a short night tonight. What with the tropics quiet and all I had better save my energy just in case there is a burst of activity in the next few days
LOL

gnite all

will be back tomorrow
...L8R, Kman...have a good sleep. Later, Crab. Later, Rick.
Ok all have a good evening the wife is paceing the floor so a wonderful goodnite to all.
hhhhmm...seems the dead and wounded are winning the battle..niters all... try to keep it between the navigational bouys
will do y'all
See ya Crab.
Just took a moon break. The big fall moon is bright as hell here tonight!
The Harvest Moon as it is called.
585. BtnTx
Rumour has it that Paul McCartney and Mick Jagger will be posting to this blog real soon now. LOL
...yeah, Rand. It's beautiful coming up, looks bigger. The higher it seems to get smaller. IMVHO
Who can tell me what song/group this is from?



"Johnny take a walk with your sister the moon,
let her pale light in to fill up the room."
My tomato plants are out there soaking up this moon!
I don't know that song.
Rand, I'd like to know how to post a pic from the pc (not the wind map-something else)...thanks.
Cowboy...I'l need to email your WU mail for that.
Musta been a country DJ lol

It's from U2's "Mysterious Ways"
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 4:00 AM GMT on October 07, 2006.

Musta been a country DJ lol




On second thought...an urban/hip hop DJ
No weather worth talking about obviously. Myself Crab I'm just a CSN fan old Y has a problem down here in the south -- LOL
That's just plain bitter!
I'm just old and frail now sunny...can't keep up with all the R&R these days.
Although I really love Live Rust
Cowboy....



I need help. I was a lurker for a couple of years. I started posting, so that helped that problem. Then Aaron added the ability to choose the level of posts that could be seen. I set it to average, but kept pushing the 'show' button on the hidden posts. I am now a peeker. Can anyone with medical training help me? I didn't stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night, but Mark Foley was my representative in the U.S. House. Is there any hope for me?
You have no possible hope Goof!
Give up!
601. BtnTx
Oh no. Just Got phone call from Rolling Stones and Beatles Lawyer Rep. Neither of the groups will admit to being lurkers!! Imagine That!
Nobody admits they lurk. But they are still lurking.
Goofoff is a perfect example. He lurks and posts. And he is my neighbor...how weird is this getting?
Randrewl, just settle for me lurking, posting and peeking. If I shift into my weird mode it would be worse than a Cat. 5.
605. BtnTx
This Just In from AP News wire - something bad is going WEST
jjjhhheessshhhhh....I got to go to bed and quit lurking..............heheheh...ooops is that you calling bud
...new sleeved t's available soon.

AS9181G1.jpg

...all proceeds go to "Jake and Elwood's" BigFoot weather research.


(not an actual t. all WU copyrights respected and protected. jus funnin'
)
How can anyone stay on topic when the weather won't do anything?
Goofoff...here's the Treasure Coast tonight.




something bad is going WEST

I heard that!

What and where?
We need Taz to find the eye. I can't spot one. Maybe it's too far west.
...all proceeds go to "Jake and Elwood's" BigFoot weather research.

Well...I'm just



Maybe it's too far west.

I heard that too!
would that be rotflmao
After Taz finds the eye, then we need Teddy to fly into the eye.
would that be rotflmao

Something like that.
My dog just ordered me to go to bed. And yes, it is a real dog, my wife is anything but a dog. Still turns plenty of heads at the age of 64. A former dancer in LA and Vegas.
ok ...I'm really really gone...lol
619. BtnTx
It could be a pinhole eye?
....yeah, where is that devil anyway? Yo, Taz! WU beckons your omniscience.
SWLAStormFanatic...Call Teddy...here's his big flight!
After Taz finds the eye

LOL! Unfortunately, Taz is on a trip and will not be back until Sunday night... (see his blog, somewhere in the last few pages).
See ya neighbor.
"The Perfect Storm" on TNT...whew!
I don't think he...s...could handle it? Yesterday I was about to apply some cyber ridlin directly to the forehead.
...lol, SWFL...lol.
Taz has been in his corner most of the day. After his Blog attack last night. But we still love him!


Taz...we need you now!
OK Michael
He made a big effort to apologize today.
Taz is good. No problem.
Here is the page where he says that he will be gone until Sunday night.
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 4:35 AM GMT on October 07, 2006.

Here is the page where he says that he will be gone until Sunday night.



Looks like he was talking to himself.
Cowboy...where's the pictures?
...yeah, really like Taz...funny, and sometimes his almost "pig latin" typing just cracks me up.
I don't believe Pyro for a minute; slickmick did the same thing with a fake apology... I bet that they are one and the same (slickmick was banned and I left his blog in ruins with some HTML, same with amazingrass). Oh... newguy333 also did a fake apology, too - as Wunderguy727.
Taz speak...takes some effort!
Pyro is not sickmick.
I saw Slickmick posting a blog today.
Somebody did post in Slickmick's blog (don't know why they can't just let it sink into oblivion)... despite some evil code that I had Taz post in it (since I am banned from his blog)... although some people can manage to post still, like in this blog..
640. BtnTx
I Like Taz, spelling aside. Isn't it about time for StormTop to tell us a Cat 5 is going to hit Gulf Coast in a few hours? Or Florida? I get confused :(
In Nov/Dec StormTop will be predicting Cat5 nor'easters.
East Coast.




...even Texan, "BigFoot" Wallace, the Texas weatherman knew of the BigFoot effect on the weather.

...while all the rest were listening to that other fellow in Galveston that year, BigFoot Wallace was high (real high) and dry in Waco.

BigFoot Wallace knew the storm was going to be bad because his foot smell meter had pegged...and may be why more people didn't follow him to Waco.

The image http://www.texasescapes.com/TexasPersonalities/BigFootWallace/BigfootWallace603TexasRangerMuseumWaco.jpg cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
I think Stormtop was banned... either this, or he has decided that nothing is going to happen this year. However, what if El Nino gives way to a significant La Nina next year? Probably a question that nobody wants to know the answer to and not just because of Stormtop...
Just beat Stormtoe...there's the cat5!
I hope that he was banned... at least from Dr. Masters' blog and preferably also the tunnel guy...
Cowboy...that right there is funny...



It's those guys that give WU it flair. Just think how boring this season would have been if it had not been for ST and Cyclonebuster.
Well, I think that when this message was put up, it specifically targeted people like cyclonebuster...

Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.

It does work; cyclonebuster's posts are hidden even when I set it on Show All...
650. BtnTx
We must all must be driving the WU admins crazy. I don't think they know what to do with us bloggers. It is getting cool here in Baytown and this is weather related.
Weather related...All I have is a full moon!
653. BtnTx
I have been really been paying attention to the "going west problem" the last few days here in Baytown. The Sun, Moon, and Stars are all moving West. We are all doomed. Just thought I would warn you!
Here's this.




Geez...we're all doomed!



The 00Zgfs is out...we're looking less doomed as it's changed it's tune. It shreds any thought of a storm unless it trough trouble cross land. Toward the end of the run it looks like no fun for some of those residing in the mid country & deep south.
657. BtnTx
Skyepony. I am no expert but it just seems to me that hurricane season is over for us in the USA - Great!
...even Taz, who is btw a distant relative of Big Foot, understands the "BigFoot" effect which is directly caused by a low level disturbance that can cure sinus problems...that's why he's cross-eyed and spins so much, a cyclone just naturally occurs.

...of course "Big Feet" have the biggest, smelliest feet of all...occasionally they hold a "foot reunion" in S. Florida and the low level disturbance mixes with some nearby convection and can cause tropical storms.

...there was a worldwide convention of all the Feet when Andrew made landfall...not too many people knew this.
Blank

(all said with affection of Taz...I'm sure our blogger's feet don't smell???...lol)
are those models trying to say 99 is gonna do a loop?
Post those "Loop" models please !

Did anyone mention West while I was out?
Been out taking photos of the Harvest moon!
Well..........




Crikey...even the Conu is out there! GFDL has a bad taste also!
With no consensus.....there is nothing.
At last! It appears that Rhode Island is out of danger and I can rest easy. :-) Good night Randrewl. Good night Harvest Moon.
...L8R, Low! Have a good sleep.
night cowboy
Goodnight Chet..goodnight David!
hmm my screensaver for the moon phase says the "Hunter's Moon"..
Full Hunter's Moon - October With the leaves falling and the deer fattened, it is time to hunt. Since the fields have been reaped, hunters can easily see fox and the animals which have come out to glean.
Man, if you can remember them maybe you should get some rest too. night Randrewl
Can't believe anyone picked that up! LOL
It's the harvest moon...don't care what your modern crap says.
Did I hear someone snore West?
Learn the uncovered truth by "BigFoot" Wallace and how these "low level" disturbances are a contributing storm factor by this mysterious mammal.

...buy the book, available at a Barnes & Hopeful near you.

Blank
I'm laughing Cowboy!
Every storm has a distinct smell....very un-publicized fact!
Depends what it destroys in the process I suspect.
Pictured below is "BigFoot" Wallace(right) and his friend Chase Cantore(left and yep, u guessed it, JC's family tree)...they often casted together under this live oak tree.

BigFoot was 6'2" and after breakfast weighed about 240 lbs...and he wore a size 16 boot...both knew that the "Big Feet" were around and that it was time to pull the shutters in.

In this picture, both men are posing for a newspaper weather photo op...and casting west(see each have a foot in that direction)...which meant they were in total agreement about the storm.

Blank
...yep, Rand...and I can still smell Katrina.
In this picture, both men are posing for a newspaper weather photo op...and casting west(see each have a foot in that direction)...which meant they were in total agreement.

So, when the Bigfoot effect is compared to the Stinkfoot effect....there is realy no comparison!
Amazing data Cowboy!
And it points West! Really amazing!
lol, Rand...I'm delirious, gonna try and catch some shut-eye. Nite, podner. Have a good one.
We were talking about the sound of storms the other day.
The smell never made the discussion.
I feel that for anyone that has been through a Hurricane...they know what I speak of.
To me it depends on the size of the storm and the environment. Also the direction of landfall.
lol okay.

South Pacific has a invest near 10S 168E

Huge blob flaring up at 16N, 85W.
Link

...Caribbean blob at 16N, 85W
Good Morning All!
Low of 68, see what happeneds when you stop the wind!
Nice link, StormW, thanks...and g'morning to u and WPB, too.
morning everybody! :)


last night......




this morning.....




these high cloud tops have persisited all night, i think this area certainly deserves much scrutiny today........ seems headed towards the yucatan channel.... then where? seems florida would make the most since.... but seems there is quite a bit of shear at the entrance to the GOM......

hope everybody enjoys their weekend, and hope your team wins! :) if you get board, espn2 7pm! ;)
CB, for that blob...or any form of it to move N to New Orleans would require it being stationary for several days while this beautiful, cool, crisp surface high takes its time moving out. I don't see that happening.
new orleans???? where the hades did that come from! LOL

from hond/ nic to NO is one heck of a leap! :D
Sure seems as though high pressure is aloft. Watch out NO. it may be coming your way!!
um mm.....you may have been joking, but if you weren't, high pressure would steer it west, away from NOLA.
.The Saints are coming..The Saints..are coming...


first decent visible shot i could get this morning.......

interesting indeed! :)


this feature been spinning over NC/ VA. for the last 12hrs or more.....

seems to have had alot of negative effects on 99L......

Is it possible that a nor-easter can form a hurricane i think it happend with the percfet
storm
No Teddy, in the Perfect Storm scenario, the combined or teamed up to make a hybrid system. Grace was already a hurricane coming up from the tropics.

Are you hoping that this nor'easter becomes a hurricane so you can fly it?



looks like the rainfall totals are starting to add up from this stalled low......
and the Rain..kept falling down..
hmmm.... could 99L do a loop out in the CATL? LOL
sorry teddy but I think you are gonna have to wait till next year for your fight, the season is over
i guess the answer is "maybe"? LOL
LoL thelmores!!
good morning all

the Caribbean blob is looking very interesting and the WV loop shows 2 things. First, that a high is building over it. Second, that there is a ton of shear just N of Cuba.

If this thing develops it cannot go N. More like ENE across the Caribbean.Looks like Nov conditions

Link
here's the shear map
Nothing will be coming N out of the Caribbean anytime soon

Link
Pat, just saw Caveman going through the airport. Maybe he's going bye-bye!
my cousin has accuweather profecional and he has joebastardi and bastardi told him that "the thunderstorms over the laser antilles has a chance for devlopment" as shear relax
Pat, "Mrs Fanatic" wants to know, "What's That?"
JB says the Great Red Spot on Jupiter trending west too..LOL!
BOC buoy..this am..Link
Hi Pat

I jus checked some CA obs
Roatan has E winds @ 14 mph
Puerto Cabesas which is on the coast of Nicaragua near to the border with Honduras and to the SE of Roatan has a SW wind @ 5 mph !

Very suggestive of a circulation developing in the blob. The QS pass unfortunately missed it
I c..thats significant ..let see how it goes in 12hrs...
pat

did you see that Google is thinking of buying you tube for 1.6 billion !
wish I could do a start up like that lol
..they should..good product that is used by millions daily...
here you go.

Link
Googles video style pageLink
Good bet we have a Caribbean tropical cyclone next week. No, the season is NOT over yet. I still feel South Florida is at the greatest risk as we head into the middle of this month. El Nino years have been known to produce some strong October storms in the Carib.
.we aint Skeered..LOL
really cold cloud tops showing up now near 17 N 84 W

Link
..Im sure Fla will be there come next Friday...
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 1:24 PM GMT on October 07, 2006.

No Teddy, in the Perfect Storm scenario, the combined or teamed up to make a hybrid system. Grace was already a hurricane coming up from the tropics.

Are you hoping that this nor'easter becomes a hurricane so you can fly it?


No. I just wanted to know if it was possible.
Personal i wouldent mind waiting intill Next Year to go into a hurricane.
..I see no threats thru next Weds...
lets try that again
Link
Good morning everyone. 52 degrees, pressure 30.41^, clear, light east wind. its a nice Oct. day!
Heres the Gulf Coast Big picture ..thru next week with Linka COLD push coming..the seasons coolest by far..
bb soon
Gale Force winds over the GOM..come next Thursday..and nothing from the caribean going to Hit anywhere in US with the flow in front of that Cold Push..period...



This is the 1991 Hurricane 8 "The Perfact Storm"
See ya'll finally respectin my Caribbean blob with some pics...lol. Not bad for 1 1/2 days of existence. Somthing interesting from the local..
SOME VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN WRT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ALONG NE GULF COAST WITH THE 00Z RUN GFS NOT INDICATING
THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS N FL WHILE EARLIER RUNS DID. IN ANY
EVENT...THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY BUT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
LINE OF POTENT STORMS EXISTS FOR THURS/THURS NIGHT BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DROPS TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

LONG TERM....GLITTO
Kman & Patrap is the shear is expected to cont in the carb through-out Oct or is it forecasted to weaken?
Shear will come & go..but the Fronts will be stronger ..each sucessive pass..and the West to Sw flow in front of them..should keep anything in check,..and out to sea..
...See the Bird with the Leaf in Her mouth..after The Flood ..all the Colors came out!.....and It was a beautiful day...Dont let it get away..!...
Good morning,

Takeing a look at watervapor imagery over southflorida and its incredible the dry airmass that is currently over the entire state.Expect a picture perfect weekend with rain chances extremely low and nothing to worry about across the tropics. Adrian

Here is Water Vapor pic showing the dry-air currently over florida.


itsa big smile in the water vapor..
hi stormaddict

took a coffee break
The shear is forecasted to be low in the Caribbean next week. Dr M posted maps a couple of days ago showing this
There will be pockets of low shear from time to time but the pattern is for overall increasing shear for the rest of the season.
My guess is that there is about 2 weeks left to the 06 hurricane season
..I see this to be good..great and welcome relief toLink get the GOM ssts down..1..degree or more late next week..but will it eject something towards Fla. in the process?...a Forecasting dilemma...lets digest this a while and give some scenarios..
thats trouble for someone 160knts ..with T-storms lifting ahead of it..Twister threat there ..
Weds thru Sat should be a wild & wooly ride across the Middle & Eastern US ...big time..
thanks Kman & Patrap
See Louisiana in green and brown
See Venice right in front of you
See the bayous broken by cloud
See the shrimp fleets clearing the Gulf out
See the creole fires at night
See the oil fields at first light
And see the bird with a leaf in her mouth
After the flood all the colors came out

It was a beautiful Day!
pat

the vis loop of the Caribbean is hinting at a rotation just E of Roatan but its impossible to tell at what level
There is also the start of a "hook" signature to the cloud field
The GHCC close up vis shows it well near 16 N 85W. Here's the vis loop. Try the zoom

Link
NEW BLOG!!!
Patrap shear levels next week across the caribbean are forcast to drop very low which might allow for some development to take place across the caribbean.This season is unique in that we are seeing that hurricanes require more than just warm water, convection, and low shear. Water temperatures alone do not dictate what will happen.2005 was a season that saw near perfect conditions for hurricane development.I suspect we might get something trying to bubble up in the western caribbean or GOM with the MJO pulse moving in next week.

Iam really happy we did not see any significant tropical system make landfall in the U.S. this season cause we all needed a break from all the devastation the past 2 seasons.I truly hope everyone has a great holiday season and my prayers go out to those still trying to put there lives back together in the gulf coast. Adrian