WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

New disturbance 94L a threat to the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:51 PM GMT on July 13, 2008

A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands has become organized enough this morning to be classified as a threat area (Invest 94L) by NHC. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the disturbance, but last night's pass revealed 94L's large, elongated circulation near 9N 35W. Visible satellite loops show this circulation getting better defined this morning, although there is not yet much organized heavy thunderstorm activity. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of tropical moisture, and 94L should be unaffected by dry air or Saharan dust over the next few days. Water temperatures are favorable for development--27.5°C. Wind shear is favorable for development--10 knots.


Figure 1. NHC's graphical tropical weather outlook for Sunday Jul 13 2008 at 8 am EDT. Area "1" is Invest 94L. Image credit: NHC.

The forecast for 94L
NHC is giving 94L a medium 20-50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Wind shear is expected to remain low, less than 10 knots, for the next four days, and the water temperatures will be plenty warm enough to support development. Three of the four global models we trust predict 94L will develop into a tropical depression. The ECMWF develops it and puts 94L into the Lesser Antilles islands on Saturday. The UKMET model does not develop it, but also puts it into the Lesser Antilles islands on Saturday. The GFS develops it but foresees that Bertha will be close enough and strong enough to pull 94L north of the Lesser Antilles about, 6-8 days from now. The NOGAPS model is much slower, and does not foresee a threat to the Lesser Antilles this week. In summary, there is the potential for a tropical depression to form later this week from 94L, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions affecting the islands by Saturday.

Bertha
Tropical Storm Bertha stayed too long in one spot, and has churned up so much cold water from the depths that it has weakened to a tropical storm. Visible satellite loops still show a large and well-developed circulation, and the storm does have the potential to re-intensify if it can move away from the cold water it upwelled. However, the steering currents are very weak and are expected to remain so for several more days, making it unlikely Bertha can find any warm water. The outer spiral bands of Bertha are very close to Bermuda (see links below), and the storm is now visible on Bermuda radar. Bertha spent six days as a hurricane, making it the fourth longest-lived July hurricane on record (Emily of 2005 holds the record, at seven days). Bertha has been a named storm for 10 days, and will easily break the record for longest-lived July named storm (12 days).

Links to follow:
Bermuda radar
Current weather at Bermuda
Bermuda WebCam

High surf of 12-18 feet is expected to affect Bermuda through Monday, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. There is about a 64% chance the island will experience sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph), according to the latest tropical storm wind probability forecast by NHC. Given the very weak steering currents predicted to affect Bertha through Tuesday, the storm could easily approach closer to the island than the current official forecast.

South Carolina disturbance
A small low pressure system has developed off the coast of South Carolina at the tail end of an old cold front. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows the circulation quite clearly, as do visible satellite loops. The low is too small to develop quickly, and is under about 20 knots of wind shear, which should also keep any development slow. The low is expected to move northeast, parallel to the coast.

My last blog entry until Saturday
This will be my last blog entry for five days (until Saturday). I'm headed to Lake Michigan for some camping and vacation. If you happen to be in Mackinaw City Tuesday night, be sure to catch the Straits Area Concert Band in Concert at 8pm at the band shell by Lake Huron. My dad and I will be in the trombone section, puffing our way through the band's usual assortment of Sousa marches, Gershwin medleys, and patriotic fare.

In my absence, our guest tropical blogger, Bryan Woods, will be doing my blog this week. Bryan has done a great job over the past three years blogging on the tropics over at thestormtrack.com. Here's Bryan's bio:

Bryan received his BS in Meteorology from the University of Massachusetts in Lowell, MA in 2005, and his M.Phil. in Geology & Geophysics from Yale University in New Haven, CT in 2007. Bryan is currently a Ph.D. candidate at Yale where he is also the graduate and professional student body president.

Bryan has spent two summers working on a National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored field micrometeorological research project in Atlanta, GA, studying evapotranspiration rates in urban forest canopies. Currently, Bryan's research is focused on combining wavelet techniques and aircraft data from the NSF/NCAR Gulfstream V to diagnose energy and momentum fluxes from atmospheric gravity waves. Bryan has spent the past three hurricane seasons writing blogs on the tropics for thestormtrack.com.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. JohnSre
Thanks Keeper, that actually makes a ot of sense to me. Hopefully it will be interesting this morning to watch. :)
iam waitin till 2 to see strat of dmax then its nap time its 119am here
dosen't matter where ya come from bobbyweather
we come as many but are only one
1504. JLPR
me too keeper =P
Keeper, that was only a PS. I put parentheses in front and back of it.

Anyway, it will be about a 5~30 minute wait for the intermediate advisory. I predict that Bertha will be kept as a 55-kt tropical storm.
Mark my words when they get the quickscat in the morning there going to upgrade this straight to a Tropical storm, you heard it here first!!!
1507. bocaman
94L will be classified a depression by 5am. A large flare up of convection is wrapping itself around the east and southeast side of the COC. Once the d-max hits which is very soon, a large ball of convection could flare up around the northeast side of the COC making this a depression.
and I realize how bold of a statement that is and would not usually put myself out there like that,but 94l looks darn impressive
Quoting Tejano72:
Flood: Where are you? PS> I was born in Hurricane, West Virginia, that's my only "street cred" LOL


I-35W, exit 63...between Keller and Haslet, neighbor! Finally, a WU blogger I can invite over for beer and brisket!
1510. 7544
im agreeing with all the above post 94l is getting much better now and could be quite large in size after dmax tonight
Okay, folks, I'm out...a short night followed by a long day...

Is this the forecast for Advisory 44a?
The Bermuda radar is cool
1514. JLPR


Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert with 94L!!!
I feel a TD coming very soon lol =P
We have to mindful of #2 off of Florida, it appears that it is developing as well.
Scary if we have both develop very early in the season!
..Bertha is now headed directly towards bermuda radar..
JLPR, yeah, maybe a Storm by Tuesday am, have to wait then to see expected track and how strong.

I am in Barbados, gotta check batteries et al.

Here we go.

I would not normally be awake now, but a nasty little centipede bit me and woke me up.

It was small to medium, so that is why I am not at the clinic (for a shot).

Pain gone & not too swollen.

Centipede has 'gone' into another existence.

Bye & night.
Well, I'm back! Not on purpose; the rain woke me up, and then I had to look at the Nasa viewers and then I had to look at 94L, . . . well u see how I ended up in here . . .LOL

I see people are talking about Hebert boxes again. I like to think of them as sort of an early version of the MDR in a way. The thing is, as I mentioned earlier, they are not "converse" rule boxes. I.E. it may be true to say that 90% of storms that end up in FL have passed through one of the boxes. On the other hand, every storm that passes through the box doesn't hit Florida. So it is never save to assume that
(a) because the storm did not pass through the box it will miss Florida or
(b) because the storm DID pass through the box it will hit Florida.

I am not sure if Hebert's statistics are still accurate using the full range of known storms for 1950 - 2007. However, I don't think Hebert meant them as a forecasting tool to begin with; rather the boxes were a graphical representation of his statistical analysis. (I'd love to have someone show me something to the contrary, since just about everything I've read on the net is unclear on that point.)
It feels like August..
When I look at the Sats on the NHC Site, specially on the visible, I get that feeling of a Fog, and behind that Fog, is the monster, you look into the
Fog, and you can feel that the monster is behind it. Course, this may be on over expression of how I am feeling, But I got it with Dean.
Its trying to get itself togther... Mabye TD by 11 AM.
omg the intermediate advisory is not out yet...I hope it will be issued before I leave at 3 o'clock (PM KST)
1522. GetReal
This report from a drifting buoy in the area of 94L is a couple of hours old, but there is a definate west wind present.


<
Drifting buoy 13009

Last reported at 2008-Jul-14 02:00 UTC. Time now 2008-Jul-14 05:49 UTC.
Position N 07°54', W 038°00'.


Wind from 270 at 14 knots

Air temperature 26.3 ° C
Water temperature 27.7 ° C
/em>
This is what woke me up.



Proves the MJO is still around . . .
CyberTed, that is quite some imagery.

You read Stephen King?
1526. JLPR
ok guys you had some interesting stories there =P

Im going for a little while but I should be back at 2:30AM =P wow lol 2 thats just wrong lol



JLPR, that's 3 hours old.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOMETIME
TODAY
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

From TWO at 2:00 AM
Well I guess Bertha is finally making her presence felt in Bermuda. The winds have been increasing the last few hours and as of the latest report are at 26(sustained) gusting to 41 mph. Can't wait to see the webcam in the morning.
Quoting bajelayman2:
CyberTed, that is quite some imagery.

You read Stephen King?


Once or twice, Reading Harry Potter also helped.
berthas center looks like it could track right over bermuda !!
1532. bocaman
The flare up off of Florida is nothing to be concerned about. Maybe just a little mid level circulation. 94 L should be a depression by 5am. Not seeing any flare ups yet from d-max but could occur soon. It is quite noticeable the amount of convection on the east and southeast quadrant of 94L right now. The NHC is waiting for a flare up from the d-max to confirm the system being a depression. I think this will be a short lived depression as well. They may decide to name it (Cristobal) at 5am if this thing really gets cranking these next few hours.
1450. KoritheMan 12:34 AM EDT on July 14, 2008

Good comment there. The most impressive things about 94L in the last couple hours are first, that it seems to have separated itself from the ITCZ and second, that its circulation seems to have intensified. It's certainly responding to Dmax pretty well, which may give it enough gumption to make it through to the other side of that belt of shear. Though the last shear map I looked at earlier suggested that shear in the area might be decreasing. . .
Am I looking at the images correctly are there two disturbances out there that are 1400 miles east of Lesser Antilles, they broke apart from each other one going north and one going south?

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/satellite.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&basin=atlan tic&anim=1
More recent.

The oil futures will be going up on any news like this, we will see $170.
...the flare up is remnents of a old front and little low pressure impulses are riding along it that is what the rain in the bahamas and florida is from...
Hey boca,

Who's worrying? That ULL has kept things overcast and drizzly here all day.
F oil futures, we all need to invest in solar and wind energy
I looks like 0ld BErtha is 0nly a shadow of her former self as it appears to be a direct hit to Bermuda.Thanks goodness!
Dee, the bottom part is the ITCZ.

stillwaiting, There is also a ULL that is aggravating the situation. See the water vapor imagery.
Quoting Dee77555:
The oil futures will be going up on any news like this, we will see $170.


Well, Guess I will have to start running some more. God NASA, Send a mission to Titan to get all
Its Gas!
For those interested, the latest TAFB discussion on 94L:

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A
1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING...
FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 36W-43W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 33W-41W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
1544. das8929
94L is continuing to organize and will be a MAJOR threat to the Lesser Antilles in the next few days.
1545. bocaman
I know, it was a pretty crappy weekend here in Deerfield weather wise. I see Okeechobee is almost back up to 10 feet which is better news. This is a foot higher than it was at this time last year. Some more beneficial rainfall may occur out there this week.
Anyway ya'll the rain has died down, so no more interesting things to watch for now . . .

I think I'll get back to bed . . . . it's not like I don't have to get up in a couple hours, anyway . . . LOL
Quoting BahaHurican:
For those interested, the latest TAFB discussion on 94L:

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A
1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING...
FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 36W-43W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 33W-41W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


You might find the TWO way more interesting, they say its likely to become a TD Today.
1548. JLPR
Hey everyone im back lol =P
anything new? I see the NHC is almost ready to bump 94l to TD status =O
1549. JLPR
well im going to see some loops at the SSD site and Im off to bed =P there isnt anyone here lol

well goodnight
I will be back at 1 or 2 PM =)
Who says im not here?
1550 - shhh! what they don't know wont hurt them LOL

in Australia its only 5pm, too early for bed :)
Quoting ktymisty:
1550 - shhh! what they don't know wont hurt them LOL

in Australia its only 5pm, too early for bed :)


So what's the weather like where you are?
1553. 7544
94l seems to be moving a pretty fast pace hmmmm
Elida is a hurricane as per the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message:
000
WHXX01 KMIA 140737
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0737 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 107.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 104.9W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 102.4W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
NNNN

By the way, they changed it from 60 kts at 0649 UTC.
Will the wave under 94L hinder or aid in development?? anyone. I'm new to the blog. Thanks.
I have a growing feeling 94L when it does develop
will be quite a Large and Powerful Storm. Possibly
a Cat2 or 3 moving into the Islands by the weekend.
It has been awhile since i have seen this favorable
of a setup for a tropical system. I am thinking Ivan
like all the way back in the summer of 2004. I think
I could actually see a cat 4-5 even coming out of this
if it stays at a lower lattitude and isnt influenced by
Bertha too much. Wait and Watch closely this one!

NHC-TD at 0500 or hold tight?
No...the convection in the ICTZ should not hinder the development for 94L. Infact...it may actually assist development by keeping the surrounding area very moist. 94L appears to have broken free from the ICTZ now so it must survive on its own....andwith a moisture laiden environment...light shear and warm SSTs....it should be well on its way
I think they will and should wait. but it has the potential
to maybe make status later today or on Tuesday.
sorry.... *ITCZ
Quoting KYhomeboy:
No...the convection in the ICTZ should not hinder the development for 94L. Infact...it may actually assist development by keeping the surrounding area very moist. 94L appears to have broken free from the ICTZ now so it must survive on its own....andwith a moisture laiden environment...light shear and warm SSTs....it should be well on its way
Thankyou!
That is a huge area though. wow.
94L seems to be loosing its convection that is over the middle seems to be all displaced to the south
Why is NHC not issuing advisories on Bertha (or TD 3)? It's 5 min before 5.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Why is NHC not issuing advisories on Bertha (or TD 3)? It's 5 min before 5.


there will not be TD3 at 5 AM navy has not switched over
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Why is NHC not issuing advisories on Bertha (or TD 3)? It's 5 min before 5.


there will not be TD3 at 5 AM navy has not switched over

I said OR. Does OR mean AND?
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Why is NHC not issuing advisories on Bertha (or TD 3)? It's 5 min before 5.


there will not be TD3 at 5 AM navy has not switched over

I said OR. Does OR mean AND?


nope I never said it did I was just pointing out that there won't be a new td at the 5 AM
5:00 AM 55knts G66 Knts 31.5N 63.6W moving NNW 7 MPH
I agree. I don't think the NHC will declare a TD yet...not enough consistent convection.
They must be perplexed, because they sure are slow this AM with the update.
Now now everyone. First of all, it is far too early to be comparing this storm, or even its potential to Ivan. At this point, that's just a bunch of scare tactics for attention.

1555 - I don't believe it will have much if any impact at 94L, as they will become more seperated from this point forward. If anything, 94L will draw moisture from the ITCZ and it may actually help development. It is a good question though, I can't give you an answer with 100 % confidence.

This is my last update before I go to bed. My forecast is bias towards a southerly path. Remember though, the storm could just cross and smash into Mexico and never come up to the US. Although, I expect a recurvature at some point between days 3 and 7. It is still WAY up in the air. My intensity forecast has been updated, however only very minor changes were made.

12hrs - 40MPH
24hrs - 50MPH
36HRS - 55MPH
48HRS - 65MPH
60HRS - 70MPH
72HRS - 80MPH
84HRS - 95MPH
96HRS - 110MPH
108HRS - 115MPH
120HRS - 130MPH

my thinking is slow, but progressive strengthening over the next 18 hours, then even slower but still continued strengthening until late in day 2. After that, slightly more rapid intensification. It is very possible that around the 96 hour mark, very rapid intensification could ensue. However, as I expect this system to be a Hurricane by then, I have stuck with a more conservetive intensity forecast to accomidate for possible eye-wall regeneration cycles. If this storm unfolds in the way I expect it, you will most likely see bursts of rapid strengthening starting at 96 hours... but because conditions are not 100 % favorable for a super powerful storm to form very rapidly, I would think it is safe to say the first couple eyewall cycles will need to pass before we reach 120 hours and beyond, in which, assuming this storm makes it that far, and that strong, it is quite likely that a burst into Cat 4 to 5 strength would occur.

Being a long range forecast, based on info about a storm which has just barely developed, confidence is low at this time, and my forecast at the moment hinges on at least slow continued strengthening. There is still the chance the 94L will not make it, but assuming it does, I have taken all available resources and combined them with my vast meteorological knowledge to provide you with the best, most realistic prediction I can. Confidence is at 30 %. By Monday Night I believe we will have a better idea, and I'll be able to not have to cover my own butt ahead of time quite as much. Stay tuned !

ps - before i leave you this evening, i want to warn everyone that although I am very educated in many areas of meteorology, my spelling is not all that great, so I hope you excuse any spelling mistakes that I have. You would think at 25 years old I'd get it right by now :D
1565. Bobbyweather 8:56 AM GMT on July 14, 2008
Why is NHC not issuing advisories on Bertha (or TD 3)? It's 5 min before 5.

---
they updated Elida first.. LOL

NHC are busy people with two or three system to write summaries for now.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
1565. Bobbyweather 8:56 AM GMT on July 14, 2008
Why is NHC not issuing advisories on Bertha (or TD 3)? It's 5 min before 5.

---
they updated Elida first.. LOL

NHC are busy people with two or three system to write summaries for now.

I think they fell asleep!
anyway.. The Japan Meteorological Agency has upgraded the sustained winds of 95W to 30 knots.

WWJP25 Tropical Weather Summary

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 23.8N 136.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
The tropical cyclone discussion for TS Bertha has her near hurricane status again (60 knots)...
1577. GetReal
IMO the latest advisory is late probbly due to NHC upgrading 94L to a TD.... Getting the graphics together, etc...


JMA TROPICAL DEPRESSION






Tropical Depression (08W/HELEN/NONAME)
1579. GetReal
Still no new advisory out from NHC... There has to be an upgrade to 94L involved.
Link

latest visible satellite image of 94L

Looks like it can't figure out where it wants the COC.
probably has to wait since the Dvorak Intensity was only 1.0 near 6:00 AM UTC. Then again Berth is analysed at 2.5 and the NHC gave it 55 knots.
1582. GetReal
The first daylight satellite photographs indicate that 94L has become much better organized. Impressive banding... Clearly IMO 94L is now a TD and on the way to becoming a TS.
Does anyone see a northerly component in 94L? Maybe I'm wrong...but looks due west to me....although a couple of frames from a visible loop would really help to confirm or reject that.
1584. GetReal
94L has been tracking almost due west for the last 5 or 6 hours that I have been watching it, along 11N.


Hmm if 094 AL looks like that, I sort of see why the NHC didn't bother to designate it 03L..
This is for the experts. which models are considered the most reliable? Thanks
Yes...cloud tops have warmed some but the circulation has clearly tightened and overall structure improved. If the NHC don't upgrade it this time around....they soon will once it can maintain deep convection long enough. Looked more impressive a few hours ago but it will continue to fluctuate as all systems like this do.
navy has 94L at 11N 40.5W but it looks more like 9N 41.4W

Link
Impressive...a it organizes some more today...we should have a TD anytime...but a big change from 48 hours ago.


456
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO LOW CEnTRES IN 94l
one at 11.0N AND 49W THE OTHER AT 9.2N 41.5 W
HAVE YOU SEEN THAT?
94L is headed for the carribbean.
Luckely for the US shear is very high over there.
1590. stoormfury 5:59 AM AST on July 14, 2008
456
THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO LOW CEnTRES IN 94l
one at 11.0N AND 49W THE OTHER AT 9.2N 41.5 W
HAVE YOU SEEN THAT?


I havnt seen that since I have few visible images to work with but I can determined a center near 11.1N/41W.


49W is well out of reach of 94L
and 94L circulation is rather broad, despite the impressive curvature of the convection.

be back later
SFWMD spaghetti models - looks like 94l could be heading for the islands. Looks a bit more southerly than last night??

Link
1595. IKE
Looks like the GFS has dropped 94L.
456 correction 41W
1594
wrong link
If anyone is interested...

Early morning tropical synopsis issued in my blog. Complete Bertha/94L forecast as of 3am
1599. IKE
Quoting InTheCone:
SFWMD spaghetti models - looks like 94l could be heading for the islands. Looks a bit more southerly than last night??

Link


You're right...they have.

Curious why the GFS seems to have dropped 94L? Did someone spike my coffee this morning? Did I sleep too long and miss something? LOL!
1600. breald
I just watched the local weather and they did not mention 94L at all. Is it losing its steam?
1601. IKE
Quoting breald:
I just watched the local weather and they did not mention 94L at all. Is it losing its steam?


TWC mentioned it.

Looks like dry-air or SAL is affecting it.
1597.

Just click on the storm 94 tab on the top of the page - sorry about that!
Local Mets. here in WPB Fl. have been mentioning it for the last couple of days, but just in terms of it being a system that might develop.

BBL
Looking at the RGB and VISIBLE loops this morning there are two low cntres spinning in 94L. the one at 9N 41.5W is the stroger of the two. the other is at 11.0N 41.0W.
convection has increase with the one at 9.0n 41.0W while the low centre at 11.0n 41w is showing signs of weakening. my thoughts are that the stronger of the two will prevail
1605. breald
I thought it was strange they did not mention it. They talked about Bertha though..
Morning everyone!

It seems as if 94l has lost some convection but has become more organized in return. Throughout the day we should see more convection flare up. Depression by tonight is very likely...
climatlogy says wait to it gets by the islands and even then not to the last wk of july
Has anyone noticed that Bertha seems to be taking on some extra-tropical characteristics? ...Maybe this will be short-term as Bertha interacts with the High and the trough to it's N and E??
Looks like an elongated circulation, WSW to ENE. Link
1606,,so is that sign of weakening,strengthing ,or what?
climatology should be used as a guideline as to where / where not to expect development at a given time. But as we know...that often means nada

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURE....


STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A
1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING...
FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 36W-43W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 33W-41W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...BARBADOS...ST
LUCIA AND OTHER ISLANDS ALL SHOW 24-HR PRES FALLS OF ABOUT 3 MB
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN WELL
DEFINED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BASED ON THE MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
61W-65W.
Fried crow the way I make it is not all the bad. Close to making another batch if 94 develops. The visiable is not showing any improvement fornately.
1613..what are you "crowing" about?...lol
Quoting aubiesgirl:
1606,,so is that sign of weakening,strengthing ,or what?


Strengthening =/...but this is what always happens to an invest destined to become a TS. Conditions are favorable for this thing, and I have a feeling it's going to take advantage of it.
1615....Isn't there some dry air affectng it or did i misunderstand?
Hmm... I can't find a Tropical cyclone Guidance Message for 94L...possibly a special advisory upgrade??
1607 What are you talking about, climotology has nothing to do with 94L conditions.
1617. I think the information about 94L will be in the 8am TWO.
1621. IKE
New blog folks......
94L continues on a westtrack
after reviewing early morning visible and rgb loops of the system it now appears thar llc is at 9.0 n 41.0w and moving at 15 mph. recentQS does not show a closed circulation but showed winds under TD status, recently there has been a burst of convection near the low centre. 94L is encloed in an envelope of moisture and will have no problem with dry air. wind shear is very low which willallow 94L to slowly organised and the system could be clssified as a TD late today or as early tomorrow.
now fot the track of system, 94l will move westward or slightly north of west for the next few days before getting to the centaral windward islands.as a strong ts or cat one hurricane. wed night into thursday. the islands from st vincent northwards to the leewards should monitor the movement of this developing system which when it develops will be christened CRISTOBAL
I'm not entirely new IKE....I'm atleast 2 weeks older than some LOL :P
14/1745 UTC 12.1N 43.1W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean