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New disturbance 90L entering the Caribbean Wednesday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:21 AM GMT on October 11, 2006

Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased this evening in association with an area of disturbed weather a few hundered miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. A buoy about 150 miles north of the center of the disturbance has seen an increase in wind speed over the past 12 hours, and the winds tonight are now 30 mph with higher gusts. However, the pressure at this buoy is not falling. Unfortunately, winds from the QuikSCAT satellite are not available in the region tonight, and we will have to wait until about 9am EDT for another pass. We should also have wind reports from some of the islands Wednesday afternoon as the disturbance moves through.

Wind shear is a low 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain below 10 knots for the next three days over the Caribbean. This may allow the disturbance to develop. None of the computer models develop the disurbance yet, but that may change by morning.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "90L".

Hawaii
Hawaii needs to continue watch an area of disturbed weather (now called 97C) near 9N, 163W, about 700 miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Its thunderstorm activity has gotten better organized today, and system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Thursday. The system is currently under about 10 knots of winds shear, and is underneath an upper-level anticyclone. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are about 29C, and there is a very deep pool of warm water underneath to fuel intensification. These are all very favorable conditions for development. SSTs stay above 26C all the way to Hawaii, and a landfalling hurricane in the islands is a possibility a week or so from now.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "97C".

I'll have an update by 10am EDT Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

i was going talk about that area
thanks dr.jeef
Thanks Dr.Master's.
Interest now in the New Invest..a pulse...
10. 0741
thank jeff master for working over time
Never say never in October...Link
12. 0741
we have invest 90 on navy site
Dr. Jeff with the suprise tonite!! We will see what happens. I don't think it has a chance, but hey I could be wrong.
WAs on the wet, east side of This one..and quite the Looper it was...Hung around for days and really piled the water up over time...Link
here is the buoy Dr. M is probably referring to



Link
The Good Dr Masters crunching the numbers and keeping us honest.
gee I'm real alert he gave the link LOL
Wind direction graph from da buoy...Link
Patrap, mail
Thanks sandcrab..b bac in a few
shear is indeed low in the path of 90L

Link
awesome sandcrab..brings it all back..How many times we all crossed that 90 bridge..THe power of the Surge,..is radical..
and we were only 60 or so miles from each other.
steering winds

Link
Pat will send others tommorrow. I be tired did 14 hours today. Hey all keep an eye out will check back in the am.
Looks like band of rain shower that came thru Texas today going thru LA now and headed towards New Orleans. Caused a possible tornado in NW Houston, no injuries. Only minor rain here in Baytown less than 1/2 inch.
is 90l even moving?
gnite crab
Get some shuteye..and thanks again
Pat WU mail
benerica

W @10 to 15 knots according to the 8:05 update
Hurricane JuanLink Double GOM Butterfly loop ..track..1985..
thanks kman, it just looks so stationary on the loop.
by the way? couldnt 90L be what the GFS has going as a little something over PR and then developing out between Bahamas and Bermuda?
Done..sandcrab.
Correction - Just over 1 inch of rain just north of Baytown today where I live.
Ok I will get them in the mail. I will send some dvds as well
pat

same place but a month earlier

Link
Nite Pat nite Kman keep your head down and eyes open.
Gilbert had one direction...wnw..period..was Whopper..
benerica

gfs not showing anything as far as I can see


Link
Noaa radio..check..LOL..Gnite
Wunderground needs to start showing invests on the SST map, and also have the 100yr similar paths for invests
Thanks for working overtime Dr. Masters.
gnite Pat

don't worry I will keep a close eye on 90L for you LOL
Tstorms cant make it in our area..they wringing out west of us in our drier air......
Tstorms cant make it in our area..they wringing out west of us in our drier air......Link
90l will develop
This first front is just opening the freezer door for that Artic polar mass heading into the Upper US..
And here it freaking Comes!...Link
welcome back PaT !! LMAO
Good evening,

Here is the 8pm discussion....


A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 TO 200 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 58W S OF 24N. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN WELL-DEFINED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IT TRACKS W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOSTLY WITHIN 400 NM TO THE E OF THE WAVE
AXIS. SFC OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY SHOW WINDS VEERING FROM THE SE E
OF THE AXIS TO THE ENE W OF THE AXIS. SOME OF THESE OBS ARE
RECORDING 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE WAVE. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE THIRD AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS JUST TO THE E OF THE
AREA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WITH SOME INSTABILITY ENHANCEMENT FROM
AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 54W. FOR MORE DETAILS...REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD...MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. TRADE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAK
PRES PATTERN.
TWo seasons in that Pic..fall tropics and Winter...
1038mb cold dome on the move south..looks cold in the IR..Link
55. 0741
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING
kman, what're ur thoughts on this guy? got a chance? who should be lookin at it? (right now and a week down the road)
Seems to be moving West..
hey benerica

I think that 90L has as good a chance as anything we have seen in a long time. Shear is low well to the W of the system. I believe the models are reflecting the influence of a ULL near the T&C Islands that initially pulls the system to the WNW to NW and then more to the W as the high to the W builds in. You can see these features on the WV Loop

Link
I think we could have a depression by tomorrow evening, because this thing is rather healthy right now, and the overnight Diurnal may assist, although it seems that the weaker systems don't take advantage of this normally.

October-November is where we normally see development occuring in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, so it definitely needs to be watched. I believe it's too far out to give a location of where it will be, mainly due to the fact that it's only an invest right now, and models don't really get a hold on systems until they're at least tropical storms.
Gator-I htink it's safe to say that with this one-for now
JER
hey hurricane how is everything
90L has all the Go signs..temps,..low shear..good synoptic look..just kick start that mother!...
Hi Sebastian..how are you neighbor..
as to who should worry about it well, right now probably no one.
Its a long way away from being a significant threat. The E Caribbean has never been kind to developing systems yet ironically in the last 28 years of the 6 systems that developed there 3 were late season systems in Oct and Nov !
90L will have to be closely monitored as high pressure will keep this disturbance moving westward for a while also shear is forcasted to remain low for the next couple of days which might allow futher intensification to occur.

Here is an IR pic of 90L from NRL...

A sweet spot in the Fray of Changing winds ..rare..but not unheard of..as you mention.
hi i'm back from Ramstein
hope evetone is doing great
like wow 90L looks like TD 10 right now it looks good


right ?
..Heres some words to ponder..The Big cold push is going ..not far into the GOM..this weekend..and the re..Linkturning Warm Front..will be in Play
Hey Gator-Just hanging out in beautiful Sebastian watching some Baseball and wondering if the storm shutters are done for the year or not
JER
That loop I posted shows thunderstorms flaring around the possible "center". The NHC keeps saying that development will be "slow to occur", but it is looking better with every hour.

Everyone cross your fingers for no Wilma storm again! LOL - And if it happens, let's hope it curves back out to sea!
kylejourdan2006 how are you?Right now iam thinking all systems go for this to develope some.
The summer to fall transition is underway. The bad word "west" now needs to be replaced with "freezing snow and ice." Patrap needs to get those mittens ready as global warming is ready to freeze the canals and dikes into failure! Oh the doom and gloom! I hope Patrap's FEMA trailer having a good heater!
Developing a lot further east than Wilma did, isn't it?
JER
Heater a GO...all electric..No propane for me..Im gassy enuf...
sustained winds to the N of the center now over 30 mph

Link
If it develops fast, does the old, strong systems go north rule apply?
the strenghtening Cyclone will trend poleward as it Gains Lattitude..
I agree that doesn't look like development is moving along slowly.
we could have a new TD or TS be for the week end if this keeps up
benirica this disturbance is forcasted to develope slowly which is a bad thing because it will come futher west.It will come west for a while as high pressure looks to keep in that general trajectory.

this buoy is 2.5 degrees N of the center
Pat

unless and until it hits a strong ridge as did Gilbert !. Then it was W
Heres the skinny ..on the new one..Link
Here are some models for 90L...



MODELS FOR 90L HERE
Geez Kaman..dont say the Gilbert word..that creeps me out..yikes...no sir..LOL
i don't know why the models predict a nw then back to se
Patrap - you were right - rain heading your way dissipating rapidly - good call!
Well..this huge High pressure Artic dome is going to come down..carve a hole in the South..then lift out..leaving a void to be filled..messy..very messy..if situ becomes chaotic.
Cyclonebuster sold me a land tunnel on the cheap.....plugged it in and Presto..squall line collapes..LOL
Is Cyclonebuster offering franchise opportunities on these tunnels? People could like really help the weather
Thats called the Lake Ponchatrain Split..Lots of Squall lines run into the cooler air temps,south of the lakes..and they tend to split into two nodes North & South of the Lake Proper..Its kindy spooky how that happens...those storms were rough earlier today..in Texas.
cloud tops are cooling rapidly
My Local radar shows it nicely the last 2 hours...Link
CANOPY'S UP...LET ER BLOW
Sorry - stepped out for a little - to hurricane: I'm doing good! How about yourself? This year has been nice because I do some forecasting on tropical sytems for an online travel company, and the near-average activity has given me some time to take a break from last year! LOL
Im waiting for the line of storms that going to come with the Polar jet with this cold air..when it roars across the lake..the radar will be a popping come Thursday..
release the Hounds rick...the Rabbits will be Hopping come friday Morning...
AINT SKEEEERD
105. BtnTx
Patrap - Lake Pont. split effect seen here often in Baytown. I don't know if it is because of Galveston Bay or Houston Ship Channel with all of those industrial plants on it with their flare stacks burning. I have seen it often and wonder about it a all the time.
PESKY WIDDLE WABBITS
Flares make a Difference..as do the Cooling towers..in refineries..down the road rick can tell ya..in Norco..that Flare can make a cloud seed..that Ive seen turn into a Hail producing t-storm...if the winds and lake effect kick in just right.For sure,..Im sure it happens in Baytown.I used to do refractory Turnarounds in CatCrackers here with my Father in the 70s...
Hey btntx...get much wind there today...got a brother-in-law lives on the north side of 10...lives in my old fifthwheel
you can feel a cat flare a long long way off..and you way way below it....
..He survived WW-2..the depression..raising me & my Sibilings.But he couldnt beat that Asbestos & Vinyl Chloride..and other violtiles..He gave up the fight in 03..Day the Gulf War Kicked off.
..But when the 20th comes round..Ill dust off his Flag ..as the Movie ..by Clint Eastwood comes out..Flags of Our Fathers...
112. BtnTx
Patrap - Flares and Cooling Towers - yes, I have always thought they colud affect the weather. But I think the effects are pretty much localized.
i hear ya pat...we still had hairy asb cat gaskets hanging on the warehouse wall 3 years ago.... know a lot of ppl that suffered....
If slow intensification occurs then it will come futher west if it intensifys at a faster rate its likely it will turn north sooner.
Was building that ethylene plant in Norco.in 79..when Norwegian Frieghter lost its rudder in the river ..and slammed into 3 Butane Barges fully loaded.Exposion Shook me to the ground in a furnace we were Bricking...and thaTt fireball burned trees..on both sides of the Miss river...and killed like 10-12 guys on that frieghter..Was loudest thing I ever heard.And never saw so many Guys running and jumping and screaming up to Airline Hwy.We thought Goodhopes catcracker Blew.
116. BtnTx
JUSTRICK - Got gusty wind today in Baytown just north of I-10, but not damaging type. Damage winds only observed in NW Houston area.
Seems like a thousand years ago now.Was wild. A 60..by 70..by 50 furnace! of 14 still operating there today. Vessel just rattled and shook...like a tin can.It was stainless Steel walls roof & floor...
think about that job everytime I see a nomex suit in the beer store............ saw a boiler blow once..... i think i shite myself
Ok, I just had my chain wall torn down and my lot cleared to rebuild my home in Pass Christian, MS...does this mean I moved too fast?
thank btntx.... fifth wheels cant take much....
you don't think that the center is reforming to the NE do you ??

sure looks so to me
same story with every system this year. Why should this one be different LOL
Here the Plant we Built in 79,...Link
heavy convection to the NE of the supposed center spells relocation !
Catcracker for beginners..Link
A real cat-cracker in a Big refinery..Not that dinkie one in the link before..LOLLink
Every time you gas up..think a lil bit about the Guys & gals that maintain those units in operation and turnaround maintence.They only so many.And not a new one built in 27 years due to EPA restraints.You could have 10 billion barrells of Crude.But you can only refine ..by Cat-Cracker..what you have ..in refining capacity.
And we need better security for ALL of Them..5-10 guys on a bad day can drive the oil markets..wacko in a refinery hit..of Mass destruction.
and you dont want to see one try to run backwards...... kinda makes you hmmmmmmmmmm
Heading to the Bed for the Daily Show.....Gnight..sleep well...happy dreams....
130. BtnTx
Interesting Weather Related industrial discussions. Weather affecting they are. Catcrackers I have been told are similiar to a bomb waiting to be set off. Everyday I work I am very near one working in largest plant in USA
yeah we had three old wemon and one guy on patrol..... now theres a deterrent.....
oopps edit
..Dads first day of Advice to me in the refinery buizz...If the Flare goes out..and the Catcracker rumbles..RUN...RUN Fast..RUN FAR!...Gnight Rick.
Right now iam looking for persistence with invest 90L,but overall convection has been steadily increaseing over the past couple of hours.
theres a sprinkle on my rubber roof......


niters pat....
LOL..well without Cat-Crackers..we all walking..Period...Gnight on that..
137. dwbit
Wait, so we gonna have a hurricane in the gulf or what?
btntx.... the entire refinery is a bomb waiting to go off..........
Here's another view of 90L still east of the windward islands...


140. BtnTx
Gnight Patrap and others. Let us dream of other tings than catcrackers tonight. gnight!
think I'm following pat...just not to close...see ya'll tomorrow..niters
Posted By: dwbit at 11:25 PM EDT on October 10, 2006.

Wait, so we gonna have a hurricane in the gulf or what?

dwbit how fast this developes we determine were it ends up going.

143. BtnTx
JUSTRICK - right about refinery being bomb - and security is a "Very Secure". Night again
90L looks better with time and the wind shear has been decreasing, look at the outflow starting!!! but look closely on the water vapor, there is an ULL over Cuba moving east, this could bring some shear to 90L in two days.
This is what I believe to be an organized (and/or organizing) tropical system: If the convection decreases, new thunderstorms immediately develop, and there is never a point in which thunderstorms are warmer than -30C around the center. This has been the case with 90L, and we could easily have TD10 by 11am tomorrow - as there is already a curved band forming around my estimated center (based on the latest satellite imagery).
Cloud tops have warmed somewhat but overall organization is still there.Lets see what QuikSCAT finds tommorow morning.
Weatherfan - I think that ULL will only cause a more northward (WNW, maybe NW) movement for a day or two, but not much in the way of shear, which should remain at or below 10kts for at least 3-5 days over 90L. Unfortunately, perfect ingredients are setting up for quick development:
- VERY warm SSTs
- low vertical wind shear
- moist air surrounding the center
Let's just hope these environmental factors DO NOT remain in tact if 90L develops any farther!
Posted By: kmanislander at 9:12 PM MDT on October 10, 2006.

heavy convection to the NE of the supposed center spells relocation !


No, I believe that spells shear, not relocation. The shear is higher to the north, so the center won't try to move towards it.
kylejourdan2006 you for got to add one thing to that

VERY warm SSTs
- low vertical wind shear
- moist air surrounding the center
- and eddys Caribbean i add this one

lol
90L: 25kts: 12.8N 57.5W

Thanks aggie - I enjoy this blog when I can provide help, and no one is arguing.

As for 90L - I highly doubt it's an invest any longer. Unfortunately, the satellites have gone into regular black out time, but this was the last image - and it's not looking good (I mean that as in the systems healthy, but not looking good for anyone who might be in its path if it strengthens).

There is a monster TROF that will be pushing into the southeast sometime late this week that may pull whatever is down to the north and also shear might be strong enough to complely rip it apart.Overall conditions appear somewhat favorable over next 2-3 days for some slow development to take place.The GFS shoots 90L to the north like a rockect.
when do they get out of blackout time kyle?
Thanks taz - you're right. Weird - look at those eddys in the Gulf. Wonder if those are the same ones that contributed to Katrina and Rita's rapid strengthening? One thing's for sure - any system that gets the opportunity to tap into the warm moisture in the Gulf or Caribbean is in for a treat - because that stuff has remained untouched for months!
id wait until morning to analyze models
Thanks aggie17 for those comments.
You're right hurricane - but I'm not sure if that trough will go far enough south to catch 90L - as it looks like it will remain in the Caribbean for some time. I'm not even looking at the models right now, as they are probably completely unreliable and I don't even think the GFS has intialized this system at all yet.
kylejourdan2006 Thats probably true as we dont have a well established LLC with 90L.
So far the 00z GFS is out to 84hrs and its basically all clear.
Sorry for any confusion. When I said "warm moisture" I meant "warm waters".

Story - I'm not exactly sure, as I'm normally not awake until after they're back online. I'll do some research and tell you what I find.
kylejourdan2006 is your blog update on 90L is so link
Blackout is usually over around 3am.
Hey kyle: I just hope this 90L doesn't want to become Joyce, I want to have a great Thanksgiving Day an a Joy, Joy, Joyfull Christmas.
LOL Weatherfan - Are you in Puerto Rico? If so, you might get lucky and not get affected, just some squally thunderstorms or showers, all depends on how quickly this organizes, which (in my opinion) 90L isn't wasting time on doing:



I live in Utah, but I was born and raised in Ft. Walton Beach, Florida, so I've experienced a few tropical systems myself, and have had a passion for them for many years, and I believe they're incredibly fascinating, and they truly are mother nature at her best. It's just sad they cause so much trouble! I'm actually applying to become a hurricane hunter in the coming years, and I've nearly completely all the required studies for the position.

Taz - I have not updated by blog - but I'll do it now, and I'll post a link when I'm done.
I agree Kyle that 90L is building, but the monster trough is soo big (heavy snow and November-type cold are forecast across significant sections of Canada, and the cold air will be sweeping southwards and eastwards). If 90L develops, creeps westward and "keeps its head down" it just may duck the trough. Let's see what happens in the next 24 hours. Anyhow, this is the first system in many days to catch my interest..
kylejourdan2006 mail for you oh by the way when you get done can you post the link in my blog thanks
WeatherfanPR in my opinion the odds are that whatever is down in the caribbean will get picked up by a very powerful TROF that will be pushing into the southeast sometime late this week.I think what 2006 has proven is that it takes alot more then warm water, convection, and low shear for a tropical cyclone to develope.The overall atmospheric conditions that were around in 2005 dont happen very often. Adrian
Here's the rainrates on 90L as of about 1/2 an hour ago. It was 12mm/hr when I checked it out 4 or 5 hrs ago now it's ~7mm/hr at worst.
Use the back (←) button below the pic to see how it was raining a bit harder & over more area just an hour before.
snowboy - I agree with you. If 90L (probably TD10 by the looks of it) stays south (and weak) enough, it could miss that trough. Of course, our local forecasters are calling for a pounding of winter storms at home (Utah), so if we're lucky one of these systems will pick up 90L if it develops, and pull it away from anyone's harm, although someone is bound to be affected if it is getting pulled away.

My blog has been updated for anyone wanting to read my "intermediate discussion" on 90L. Click this link to read it.
Hey, bring some snow and cold air down here!!!
Yes kyle, I'm in Puerto Rico and also I believe the weather is fascinating, for that reason I'm WeatherfanPR.

and 23, I agree with you that 90L will be moving on a northwestward component so this should pass north of us. but how far north?
weatherfan - I'm almost confident 90L won't move north of you, south would be the more likely option. The ULL north of 90L should pull it WNW to NW for a couple days, but won't pull it north of Puerto Rico. It should stay in the Caribbean Sea.
Shear model comparision is interesting. Navy is calling for a little less than the gfs. The 12z forecast, which would be about now...gfs seems a little high on the N side of 90L, for what's been going on.
That's weird - anyone notice that a 3:45 UTC image came out? Normally it starts blackout at 3:15?
Well kyle, then these are bad news.
hey hurricane23, I see the trough very clearly (am expecting flurries from it later this week), but it is predicted to stall out somewhere north of some of the possible tracks for 90L
Ya it is bad news weatherfan - because even it gets pulled north or northeast in the Caribbean, someone is going to get affected.
Okay, I'm looking at the GFS an NOGAPS, and I'm not seeing any trough that would pull 90L north. Then again, I don't see 90L at all! LOL
hey read this from stormcarib:

- OCTOBER 8 1974
From: "john fuller"
Date: Sat, 7 Oct 2006 19:55:26 -0400

Title: Message
OCTOBER 8TH 1974 WAS A FLAT CALM DAY HERE IN ANTIGUA. THE SEA WAS LIKE GLASS. AT 6:50 AM WE ALL HEARD WHAT SOUNDED LIKE A 747 JET COMING IN AT 50 FEET FROM THE NORTH, AND THEN....... ALL HELL BROKE LOOSE. A MAGNITUDE 7.25 EARTHQUAKE SHOOK ALL OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AFTERSHOCKS WENT ON FOR WEEKS. IT WAS 10 TIMES SCARIER THAN ANY HURRICANE I'VE BEEN THROUGH.
Does anybody want a free subscription to Weather Underground Paid? No ads, weather forecasts & alerts e-mails, and 40 frame loops of radar - first person to post "fidget sticks" gets it! LOL
Yes Kyle I had notice...kinda pointed that out on the rainrate comment:) NexSat had updated before the NOAA rainbow. Blackout starts at either 3:15 or 3:45. I wanna say it's 3 hours long.
This doesn't look good. It's getting that shrimp form!!!
That sounds about right Skye. I wouldn't mind at all if we didn't have blackout tonight! LOL - They shouldn't blackout the satellites if there is an area of disturbed area worth watching and/or active tropical systems.
a joy, joy rejoice.
CAN ANYONE TELL ME IF THIS THING CAN GET TO THE GULF AND GO EST TO FLA?
I MAY have to recant my "season is ova call", this has potential. This WILL NOT be a fish storm either. : )
Good call Ray. Once this system gets pass the Leeward Islands, any development will affect someone.
Yes, definate monster shrimp spotted. Hard to trust the major models on this right now, the way they've taken turns hinting for days. Seems like what they did with the invests that became Chris & Ernesto.
The 00Zgfs just came out, still says trough bait.
Hmmm...Not shrimp - more like prawn:

Kylejourdan,you know this has a chance if I give it a shot cause as you know I have been fairly conservative with respect to the tropics in this the year that every storm almost, but not quite made it. I think this is the first storm that we actually have agreed upon!! : )
Saw that Skye - Don't base any predictions off the models now for 90L. I think it could be safe to start using the models on Thursday, considering 90L develops into a depression (possibly storm by then).
LOL - Glad to see we can side with each other on this one! I wish we could side on storms in the open ocean though - as I think we can both agree that if this develops then someone's going to get hit (unfortunately), and all we can do is hope that it's not bad!
200. KRL
Whenever you see Dr. J doing an evening post, its time to worry. :(

So now the season is going to pull a "Ha Ha Ha You All Thought I Was Done & Gone" October surprise on us.

Skye, this is the first time ALL YEAR that even I don't but into that quick of a recurvature. I think it at least gets to FL' longitude.
Yes when Dr. Masters puts out an "update" post, it's worth watching! LOL - I don't think he's done that this season!
203. KRL
Posted By: JUSTCOASTING at 1:08 AM EDT on October 11, 2006.
CAN ANYONE TELL ME IF THIS THING CAN GET TO THE GULF AND GO EST TO FLA?


I think if we've learned anything over the past couple seasons, it's that storms can pretty much do whatever the heck they want to do, and even confound the best of the forecast models and expert meteorologists.
I still do not think that it will strike anywhere in the US as a major hurricane though,it will entrain dry, stable air at some point.
swFLboy, the shear is forecasted to be low in the Carribean, you may very well be right about the recurvature. This has a much better shot to hit land than the others for what that is worth. : ) LOL!
Good nite, all.
Yeah I had just pointed out I'd tossed the major models on 90L for now. Still look at them though. The 00Z mm5fsu just came out, has it traverse PR & the stronger storm it forms in the central Caribbean is new.

The Nogaps & gfs has been most interesting in the E. Pacfic today with the 3 -4 blob dance toward the east then west & there is that storm emerging from mid to upper California that does a U turn back into S. CA.
You guys are too used to having re-curving systems this season, so you're automatically assuming it will recurve. Let me just say, don't get your hopes too high on that thought right now.

And swFLboy - It's probably already a depression. I think it will easily make it to storm by the weekend, as conditions are perfect for a tropical system.
SHIPS may be too low in my opinion. The trough will most likely not go far enough south to pick up 90L if it remains near 15N (which it is south of now). Maybe some later troughs that enter the west starting next week, as by then 90L will be farter north. Nonetheless, someone WILL be affected, as the islands are creating a barricade for this storm to pass by without causing some kind of misery (little or big).
Last image available is showing thunderstorms beginning to blow up on the west/southwest side. For a invest this is extremely healthy, and expect a depression by tomorrow evening.

It also appears that shear is now becoming more of a "ventilator" than a "nuisance" for 90L, as outflow is already appearing. Cloud tops have been blowing less all evening, and this system is going to, undoubtedly, be our next depression (and probably storm). I don't like to say this, but my wishes don't stop reality.
hi is 90l the small blob or the big blob behind the small one

confused now thanks
stormybil, good question. i was wondering the same thing. if its the big blob is the little one acting as a forward guard? darn, watching to much sports.
theres no way the center is exposed, convection is starting to build to the west, i agree with kyle tomorrow evening depression
shear is not much of a factor and definitely wont be at all the next few days

if anything i think its more organized, it hasnt lost much convection, im gonna just wait and see what the quickscat is saying at 8
ahhh sorry but is 90l tha little blob or the one behind it . thanks
Good early morning>> What a difference a day makes. 4.45 am in trinidad and a very pretty lambs wool sky with a moon shining through, And a BLOB to watch. What a glorious morning...........
OH BOY!! one more blob to watch before the season ends!!
Good Morning all.
well there goes my day off thursday is looking pretty messy here in pr
Good morning everyone!
Polar Express entering the southern portions of Nebraska and Iowa temps are starting to plumit in northern MN and the precip is begining to change over
looks like blob is refireing
Wow! Didn't expect to wake up and find an Invest. Just checked the last loop and it looks like it is firing up nicely this morning.

It will be in a low shear environment for a couple of days, but if it gets anywhere near the Gulf, it will be ripped apart as shear is still very hostile in the entire region.
yeah nash looks like the next 72 hours is going to be a little interesting for us here on the islands
Morning....Nash...ain't it great we have something to talk about!!
Yes we do have something to watch.
Link the weather obersevations for antillies
good morning all

Barbados is reporting N winds now
Looks like an interesting day ahead
hey can i have a shear map please guys!! im only back for a little bit.
good morning all
Here is the QS pass
Barbados also reporting N winds
Link
shear map
Link
sorry about the double post on the winds. The first post didn't show for a long time. I thought it had got lost LOL
Thank alot K-man Appreacite the map:)
Morining guys! So hows 90L doin this morning? What could we expect here in Puerto Rico? Its a long weekend for me this week... is it ruined?
hmmm

this blob looks like another one of those mutiple swirl blobs. There is clearly a circulation off to the NE of the main convection and another just E of Barbados.
The one to the NE appears to be moving off to the NW
Link
kman, i was just about to ask that... which one of this swirls is the most promising to take over?
morning benerica

Last night I speculated that the center of circulation had relocated to the NE under what was then the heaviest convection and I think that is the swirl we are seeing now to the NE

The heavy convection just E of Barbaods would seem to be the stronger player due to the consolidation of the convection there but all season we have seen systems with the LLC jumping around for quite a while prior to stabilising

seems odd that the 8 am discussion does not even mention the blobLink
hmm weird... maybe a mistake? Or I guess they got used to all this time not writing about anything.
the swirl @ 14.3 N 56.5 W shows up nicely in the GHCC zoom image but it appears to be fading away
Link
well I have to do a school run so will bb later
Maybe the discussion left out the blob until the vis images were available to confirm what was going on out there. Who knows ??
yeah, probably... have a good one
benerica i am woundering the same thing i wanted to go to palmas for golf now it looks like ill be going to palmas to surf lol
Here the Artic push moving South..Link
lol... i feel you mrpuertorico, every week im at college in San Juan gettin rain in the PM and when I go back to Palmas on the weekend I get a break from that... unfortuantely doesnt look like the weekend will be too sunny.
Good morning,

Here is a close up view of the circulation with 90L from NRL....


yeah but don't hold your breath you know puerto rico has a gift bad weather ussually either disipates before it reaches the island or at the last second jogs to the north or south lol
Looks like GFDL loses this system as well.
ok well i am off to work ill be monitoring on my comp at work keep the updates flowin adios all!
Looking fairly well organized on visible imagery...CLICK HERE
hurricane 23

I do not believe that low swirl is the circulation but probably just one of multiple swirls typical of early stage systems. barbados is now reporting WSW winds and that swirl could not, IMO produce those.
If anything those winds are being produced by the LLC being just immedaitely NE of Barbados under the heaviest convection
GFDL doesn't seem too be too serious this morning.




Nope. GFDL dissipates this pretty abruptly.
Well Nash...it looks like we'll have something to yack about for a bit. If it stays in the Carib.....it could get interesting.
Very true Rand. If it moves North, it will be history. West..... things could get a little interesting...
interesting?.........it's west......west i say.....remember wilma...late season storms?....i can hear the wind blowing already.....i mean..where's the subsidence?....where's the troffiness?....where's the westerly wind shear?....whssssssssshhhhhhhh...sprinklebottom
rand...my wishacasting doesn't look as impressive when your chart doesn't even show closed circulation yet
could you modify your graphic please
Ok. Latest QuikScat shows circulation center is near Barbados, not near that Low Level Swirl to the NE of the convection.
Very small and weak one though.
There's one there...but you're right....weak.

Sorry about that Ric.
Its disorganized, but the winds are pretty good to the NE of that small center. And that small center is near the burst of convection this morning. At least it makes it alittle more interesting today..LOL
Any chance of this Invest 90 developing into something tropical????
The orange model looks like Ernesto
morning everybody! :)

seems 90L wants a name!



90L not going to be nothing.too much shear as it slips NW..to oblivion...
Barnados winds now SW. No question there is a circulation
Link
Pat....you're no fun this morning talking like that.
Poof !..will be its name..LOL
Sorry, Barbados that is lol
No way its going to develop...Unless it goes Due west.And I dont see that ..at all..


not sure if its shear, or sub-tropical, but seems the heavy convection is off to the w and wsw...... seperated from the center......

we'll have to see if we get some major convection near the center today..... if so.... seems we will have a TD on our hands!
The year of the Poof!
Hi Pat

The shear map says it has a chance for about 2 days. After that it will depend how the conditions in the E Caribbean evolve. Even a course to the W would be hostile by Friday if the shear down the road does not relax

Link
Shear Madness...L0L
Good morning everyone
thelmores

that is not the center.
It is under the convection immediately to the NE of Barbados. The QS pass confirms this as well as winds at Barbados
hey hurricane23 how are the tropics doing should we be worried about 90L
You right with that assesment Kman..good eyes .
Morning Crab.
Patrap mail
Evacuate Miami Now..avoid the rush..for 07...
Morning Rand how are ya?
304. KRL
Looks like potential for westward bound and some further development.
Everything's good here today.
seems to me that the models are pointing towards PR or southward..... but based upon the "current" location and extrap motion, looks PR or northward extrap to me.....
REg mail or WU..Ive have neither crab..cept what u sent last night..Did u get my Street Addy?
Thinks it will stay way south under thr Yucatan it would have to be a very bad one to move to the north and survive
Regular mail Pat I just sent it
here are the steering winds at the upper levels
of course the strength of the system will ultimately play a role in the track


Link
The Cold Pool ..heading South..Link
OKay Crab..Ill see now.
I need mo coffee crab..will be expecting it..LOL..Thanks.
Love them colors Kman..and the Flow..
Pat I sent an email with some Saints pics just a bit ago I have put 4 disks in the snail mail of Katrina and Saints and just some other stuff.
Pat

Tropical colors no less LOL
Like many of our buildings !!
thanks kman..... sometimes i get optomistic about circles and such...... LOL

seems like there is something spinning in that circle! :D


OKay Crab..will notify when the Disk arrives.And thanks again for the E_mail stuff.Was that your truck the pics were shot from during the Storm?
No I was with the DEQ hazmat person
That looks like Beach road..where at?
thelmores

if you look at my 11:51 and 11:55 posts earlier I referred to that low swirl you had circled.
IMO it is the remains of one of multiple swirls typical of very young systems and would have developed under heavy convection that was located in that area around 11pm last night
Pascagoula beach and Ocean Springs Beach areas
Okay..east end..I c now..The Old Biloxi Lighthouse..still remains...thats one tough lighthouse...Round better design.
heading out now but will bb later
Well,FEMAS next door.Cutting out neighbors Oak tree stump..yesterday they Managed to pull the water line up..but not break it.THey have crew of 10..for 1 tree..and they a clusterflob..LOL..Dont have the heart to take any pics.They might drop a tree on my trailer.LOL!
I sprayed an Orange X on his stump..and they added Him to the List for free removal.Saved my neighbor 2 grand...
Bac later..going out to watch the FEMA show a while..C-yall later...
328. HCW
Models shift west with 90L ?

Link
Good Morning All....I've been too busy at work to interact this week, but, as to the Antilles Wave, I agree that only chance for development will be if it stays to the South (or it will get blown apart by shear).......As such, we have to see if the convection holds together and "persits" for another day or so South of P.R.....................It may be history in 24-48 hours otherwise....