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New computer model runs for Katrina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:11 PM GMT on August 25, 2005

The 1:18pm EDT Hurricane Hunter mission found the pressure of Katrina remained constant at 990mb, but the maximum winds were now on the northwest side at 64 knots (73 mph) at the airplane's flight level of 5000 feet. Radar from Miami confirms that the north side of Katrina has greatly increased in the amount and intensity of precipitation the past two hours as the storm continues to strengthen. It is a very good thing that Katrina does not have an extra 12 hours to intensify before landfall! However, the very favorable environment for intensification that Katrina is currently in is expected to still exist once she is in the Gulf of Mexico Saturday. I expect Katrina will become at least a Category 2 hurricane before its second landfall.

The latest computer model runs, performed using the 8am EDT upper air data, have made a major shift. Katrina is expected to push much farther west off of the western coast of Florida, and make a delayed turn to the north. These latest model runs show a much reduced risk to Tampa, and put an area from New Orleans to Cedar Key, Florida at risk. In the center of this risk area lies the U.S.'s very own hurricane magnet, the Pensacola region, where Ivan and Dennis struck.

Katrina continues to intensify at a modest pace, and if present trends continue will hit Florida near Fort Lauderdale tonight as a minimal Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds. The northwest side of the storm continues to suffer from dry air intrusions, and the primary intense thunderstorms and strongest winds are on the south side. Thus, the usual rule about the right front quadrant (north side) of the storm being the most dangerous is not neccesarily the case with Katrina. The highest storm surge will still be to the north of where the center comes ashore, but wind damage may be equally distributed on both sides of the storm.

The Miami radar loop continues to show an increase in low-level banding, and an eye-like feature trying to form. Upper level outflow is improving and slowing expanding.

As I discussed in the previous blog entry, the major threat to South Florida from Katrina is freshwater flooding from her rains. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 10 inches are expected from this slow-moving storm. For comparison, Hurricane Irene of 1999, which hit South Florida as a Category 1 hurricane, dumped 10 - 20 inches of rain. Damage from Irene was over $800 million in Florida. Damage from Katrina will probably be much lower, in the $30 - $100 million range, since Katrina's rainfall will be half of what Irene's was.

What's that behind Katrina?
A large area of disturbed weather even bigger than Katrina lies to her east, just north of Hispanolia. This disturbance lies in an area of high wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next few days.

Katrina blogs
For observations of what's happening now in South Florida, we have several bloggers writing today:

turtlehurricane (Weston, Broward County)

sngalla (Fort Lauderdale)

MrJ76 (Okeechobee)

Zeenster (Cape Coral, SW Florida)

evolution (Charlotte Harbor, SW Florida)

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

WOW talk about good agreement in the models. The link you gave me Lefty did not show this.http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_model.html
oil industry forecasters dont see much help in trough being much of a factor in sending it back to nw before afecting industy....ie Destin.....pretty leery about how far west to evac...stay tuned
the debate is good and all but the models will shift a little more west with time and the panhandle is about 80 percent likely at this point. u can't say for certain but that is the track give or teck 400 miles either way. so look at the nhc track and figure anywhere 400miles east or west of that point. though it probly won't be that big of a error. more like 100 miles more likley
OK guys, thanks for sharing your knowledge. Bed time. It's always a good day when you learn something new.
thats the link i posted.
remebr the gfdl took her more south 2 runs ago south of keywest and never brought her any closer east then where she is now
Not coming my way, but not getting near Pensacola, it will not make it to Pensacola....
u don't know that
Yeah FL panhandle seems to be the big winner again... or the big loser :( - depending on how you see it...
Ok I dont mean to start an arguement, but, the last frames (updated) of my previous link show this thing aint moving quite SW anymore.....
Moves WEST
i se a sw component on radar maybe a wobble west but generally sw
Key West seems to be escaping the eye - not the rain though - and hurricane79's path to be correct for the time being.
remeebr as we stated at landfall, a movement must be tracked over a period of time, so if she moves west for 2 hrs we can say the movement is west, thats how you track a storm by points on a graph not by ever wobble
Back in 20 min..
Like lefty said the models will now shift left and right and angle, but I agree that it will be within 100 miles of this point. I think that you may see a more NE or slightly E of that late in the period. The bam sucks for forcasting points, but it has been some what accurate in general movement trend.
Here I was getting ready to go to bed....think I'll hang for a while.....
the eye is filling in
After 12:30 EDT it is moving mainly west. Also in wunderground.com's tracking page the last tracking positions are mainly on a western track than the earlier southwestern.
Junkie for short range what is your model of choice???
so what if the eye fills in, she will be fully over water in 2 hrs and she will start to reorginise for 6-12 hr s than the stregtehnong cycle will begin.


i like the model runs and their is a real concensus. even if she moves west right now she would still be inline with the models which follow the nhc track into the panhandle
her movvement per my ops is wsw or sw, their is still a very visible southern component to here track at the moment based on radar ops
I think the western track bring it closer to the nhc consensus. A continuation of the southern move (e.g. the eye reaching as south as Key West) would be a considerable divergence from the model predictions. But this does not seem to be the case at this point.
bek....where are u located?
chill dude, just making an observation
Houston TX - Rice Univ.
They are all generally right for the short term. She will head W maybe a little S of W until she starts to make the turn. That is where things will get intresting.
So how many hours until the stall and the turn according to the models?
i am just saying she is visibly moving sor wsw and until she moves in another direction for a period of time any movement is a wobble
I would think that the further south she moves the further E the second landfall comes. She will turn and she needs to get west to line up with the models. When she turns she will turn NW to N to NE and maybe even ENE.
It's definitely a very wobbly storm. I dont think her path is very typical.
dunno cause thats to exact to be pin pointed and as i stated earlier itt doesn't mater if she moves west or sw, the models all agree on a north tunr and that will be her movement until landfall. that puts her in a oath straight for the panhandle thats your landfall and theres no way out of it
The eye seems to be temporarily reforming.
If I could tell that I would be rich. Forcasting storm turns are the hardest thing to do from what I have seen. The models will fluctuate where the turn is an exactly what kind of movement comes after the turn. Have to wait for the turn to know this though.
1035. JeffM
What are the chances of this thing going further west and hitting New Orleans?
the 8am gfdk took her south of keywest and made landfall west of where she is ecpected to make landfall now. she is not going to head ne or e prior to landfall, specially since she will be a najor hurricane. the turn will come after she weakens
intrestingly enough, the last models of UKMET and BAMM accounted for a more southerly exit into the gulf....
thast what i have been saying toi storm the past 30 minutes. a new orleans landfall is about 5-10 percent. highley unlikley. most models have some south component to it. stop wishfull thinking and trying to overforecast. the models tell you opanhandle the nhc say panhandle, the navy says panhandl;e. all the modles agree. that lessens the error so its 100 miles eats or west of the model tracks maybe less
Halon: are the last models of UKMET and BAMM being portrayed in the wunderground webpage or did you see something else?
ship bouy id 42003 nw of key west shows bp 1009 mb w/n winds 18 knts.....dont have any new recon bouys to report.....guys we pay a lot for this info...need a lot of leed time
the only reason the nhc track was so far east was becuase of the gfs. remeebr the gfs just shifted about 500 miles or more. it moved in line like i said they all would. this are very acc models due to the upper air recons. it will not deviate far from this track when u have model concensus. charley did not have model concensus.
On the Wunderground webpage........
I think everyone in the blog now Lefty expects it in the panhandle. I dont think that stormtop is online...
I think that the trough will allow an eastern movement of some type at some point. The strength of the storm should not affect this too much if the trough is strong enough the storm will follow the path of the trough and start heading in an Easward direction. I have seen this in many atlantic storms even strong ones. I am only reading the models. Ask Lefty that is about the only thing that I fixate on.LOL.
looking at water vapor loops it wouldn't surprise me if she stalled over cuba and the got sucked back over the bahama's I know thats sounds crazy
well storm u do not understand hurricanes than. its no the trough that is pulling the storm. the trof will weaken the ridge way befor the storm gets there. to move a major hurricane u have to pussh her fromm all levels. so she will follow the weakenss till she weakens. thats a north movement thro landfall. then she will be swept up by the westerlies and fflown ne. at not point will she go ne or e prior to landfall
OK. hence my earlier question, any info on how strong or weak this trough might be?
don;t know don;t care cause evry model is right ontop of each other. that lessesn any erratic movement. remeebr prior to landfall all models diverged. since than all modesl have come together on one area not next to each other, right on top of each other.


check it out for yourself, i am done arguing over a movement she will not make


Link
Eyewall cracked for a couple of minutes, but you can already tell its starting to rebuild, solid eyewall again
some of you guys don;t understand how the steering works and trying to fight the truth. any southern or western movemeent would take her west, a northern movement would take her closer east. very simple good night
Lefty, the models all agree on somewhat of a eastern component just prior to landfall. These models will shift several times in angle and landfall point over the next 24hrs. The point where the turn is made will also shift some. I think that all of the shifts will be with in 100 miles, but that is a pretty damn big area. Have to take a nap. see you in a few hours.
Yeah Halon - eye has reformed which has caused the storm to stall over the last 30 minutes.
wilkens is not agreeing with steering to predict landfall @ this time. Trof still hesitant
Ya know, I think these guys are probably pretty accurate, but, the fact of the matter is we are still in the cone of uncertainty, and, to be honest I have a tendency to expect the worst and hope for the best....
Where are you Halon?
point of fact, most models did not show a track this far South. Keep this in mind when using model biased points, or any mode forecasts.
Northeast Florida right smack in the middle, Jacksonville to the north, Gainesville to the west, little town called Palatka....
79 what do you see in Katrina's future from your perspective???
Found you on maps.google.com. You have plently of water there. Good for flooding...
Halon: Link keep in mid that Katrina will be a Category 3 at second landfall
We will still be watching the models through tomorrow, but if what they say is correect, then Atlanta is screwed! Bad. She moves on shore fast.
Thanks 79, BEK I am on aridge though where I live at, so I am not prone to flood here (at least not in 15 years) but our county is no doubt in a flood zone....
If you are unlucky and hurricane79 is correct then it is coming your way Halon. But most of the models have it considerably more west.

In the meanwhile the storm is almost at the same point for the last 45-60 minuts.
are you still on the radar link I gave???
hey guys check this forecast path out & tell me what you think about it link
The whole thing is WHERE will this thing stall out??? thats going to be the point of change..... I dont really think anybody knows....
I am using the Miami radar on wunderground:

Link
wildd1979 - you are also hurricane79 right?
I think it is too much to the east but i am not claming any expertise. It is just that the models seem to have converged pretty clearly.
1069. Amorris
1979 Is that still something that could happen? I live in that area or just bellow... Where dose everyone think it might go?

She looks like she's almost stalled now.....
I see no change in forecast reasoning. If I see Katrina moving slowly in the morning, which she should,
I will have a very interesting "scary" forecast for some in my area,
bekro, not the same person, just hurricane79..
Wow, I don't know what I'm more impressed with - the number of posts you guys have put up some since I left earlier this evening or the fact that Katrina has already made it back over water a little ahead of schedule...
79 where are you located???
bekro no I'm not hurricane1979 I'm younger than him and hurricane1979 whats your forecast for your area?
Yes, the Westward movement of Katrina should no longer exist within 18 hours, she will gain Longitude through that time..
But it has pretty much stalled after it exited Florida Randyman. It seems that Katrina likes to stay over warm water much more than staying over the Everglades.
stop wishcasting. the nhc forcast is still right of the models so that is probly the east she will be
I live in Pinellas County. I am not being biased, I graduated from FSU in 04, and should be biased for there... I saw Charley make its turn to the right earlier than all models and hit Punta Gorda. Some of this had to do with the incorrece input of data into the compute models, the others had to do with the rapid deepening of Charley.
Thats ok BEK, I'm sure the gators didnt like her much either LOL
right 79 but we also did not have model concensus either with charley. with the model concensus with the last run you can see that she is headed to the panhandle. exactly where time will tell. i cant fight all models going to the same place
Lefty, Similar to the past 3 nights, I'd like to make a comment before I sleep, except I am off work tomorrow:)). Charley was right of all models last year. I respect the computer models for this storm, but do not rely on them. I believe my prediction in that the trought to the Northwest will approach in 48 hours and push the ridge to the West, stalling Katrina. When the trough digs far enough South, she will move North and then Northeast. This will occur further East than the NHC, since their forecast is West of the current forecast is it not??
and the nhc was so east cause of the gfs. now the gfs fell inline more westard that means the nhc track is actually to far east
jeff14 no not stormtop real or fake one I have been no one but me on here thanks.
Does anyone else have the impression that Katrina has shrunk in size over the last few hours?
96 hours before Charleys landfall, consensus was within a 60 mile cone
Yeah BEK, but the sronger bands are closing in on the northside, she is definitley getting her act together....
thast why isaid give it a error of 200-300 miles from them,doesl your still in the panhandle. we will wait and see. ur basing everything off of charley i am sticking close to the nhc cause they used the models and thats what i use and while i won't ever pick a location exactly i will tell u an area. the panhandle close to ivan and denis and deep down u know thats hwere she is heading
how far was punta gorda from tamps?
not taking sides just being devil's advocate but hasn't the NHC's tracks been too far to the left of the tracks the storms actually took for hurricane season 2005.
If you had told me 24 hours ago that Katrina would be within 60 miles West of Key Largo, moving SW at 4 MPH, I would have said you were insane, but it falls into a scenario that could occur..
hurricane79 please explain your name...Frederic reference? David reference?

Anyhow, hurricane79 I am not totally sure yet but this storm may land to the west of your people in Pensacola, but very, very close nonetheless...
100 miles from tamps to puntagorda. so go 100 miles from the models ur still in the panhandle . stop using charley she was not that far off of the nhc track towards charley.
i did tell you last night. thats the track of the gfdl last night. give or take 30 miles
Tampa is about 85 miles NNW of Punta Gorda (They need no storm, many still live in portable school units)
Lefty, far off? ask all of the Tampa Bay area. ;)
right was pointing out that ur models were 60 miles off of each other so 1 models was 25miles off. thats pretty good. your track is well over 100 miles from the last model runs. the same area denis and ivan hit is where she is going. its in the tea leaves man
Randyman, my screename comes from my birthdate 1979. I hope that no system hits the Panhandle because I was at Florida State finishing my Met. degree in 04, when Ivan hit, and no person deserves what ehey went through, a third time in a row!!.

I am from the Tampa Bay area.
dude ur not forcasting, ur scaredcasting. ur charlye hooked and charley was well in the cone and not out of the cone was my point. the models take her to the florida al miss border. so the nhc track would be the charley hook. i amdone disscussing this. we will see in 3-4 days
Tea??? man that sounds good right about now, think I'll have to go get a glass
and 79 i am not wishing that on them.please understand u know i am just forcasting from the data i have and its not fair to them that she will be headed that way. but that plays into ur forcast. maybe u don't want to say 3 in a row. i can opnly say what i see and i am sorry. they are going to get hit again
hey hurricane79 I was born in 1979 also I am currently a sophmore at MSU getting my degree in Broadcast Meteorology.
Last frames show nice convexions. She is getting pretier.
Holy COW! this thing is building fast on the north side
Lefty, I am an advocate of the random error method of forecasting. While the NHC Has a systematic error forecaster (They rather be correct within 200 miles every time), they never forecast the way we all do (atempt at a forecast within 50 miles. I agree with the lesser error





see you guys tomorrow going to bed now keep an eye on Kat for me overnight lefty, hurricane79, and Halon.
yea the gulf is way warmer than the other side of florida. thats why we see a major hurricane heading intot he gulf state.


79 dud i repsect you and i feel ur one of the smartest people in here. i just call what i see. no wishing,no anything. models tell me not a point but an area and thats what i am forcasting
I know you guys do your best to forecast at the best of your ability, I just wanna know if Iam gonna be asleep Sunday eve or am I gonna be running calls all night :(
Lefty, If anything as a compromise, Tally will get the system..remember yesterday?.

I am trying to adjust for the SW turn. I wont have extrapolated forecast compared to the SW turn for another 20 mins (you know, the model data...)
i agree with that but ur forcast i well beyond a 50 mile range
I am really curious to see the intensity at the 5am report. Katrina might have already reintensified to 80mph or even more.
but the gfdl had the turn remeebr man. thats my point i have been trying to make. i said i support the gfdl alllast night. she called the sw turn
I feel the models will join the BAM and shift more to the west as well, overall a consensus nonetheless, just more to the left, a little closer to the Mobile/Pensacola CWA...then shifting her north and east from there...
well the bam is currently the eastern model.all the other models are right ontop of each other here is a link


Link
The GFL did forecast a SW turn, but the AVN, and ECMWF (EGRR) did as well. Unfortunately, I cannot stay awake long enough to try to make a statement, but I will wake back up soon...........See you by 10 AM
never mind new bamm is out and she shifted west all models now in concensus
The Key West radar starts giving a more complete view of the storm now than the Miami radar.
Repeating the 3 am EDT position...25.3 N... 81.3 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 11 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 70
mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.
k 79 cathc u later man
Lefty, click on this link and refresh whenever necessary, it includes all tPC forecast models (4 of the 5 of then)
u can't fight the model concensus. looks like those poor folks will get another major hurricane
what link
u know the keys could get hammered over night and i don't think any of them are prepared
sorry, Link
no link 79
That's what I said about the keys earlier lefty. I dont think they got prepared for what they are getting tonight.
thanks man
1129. Valence
Wow - I come home from work to find Katrina already back into the gulf?!? (I kept asking why several of te models had her taking that southerly jog).

yeah me neither man good call. i expect hurricane warnings to go up soon
yeah and shes still practicly a hurricane. onlost like 10-15 mph in windspeed accross florida
1132. Valence
No, Lefty, they are not prepared. A couple of friends of mine were thinging about going down there to get away from Katrina. I hope they stayed home.

Here in the Naples / Fort Myers area, you can barely tell there is a Tropical Storm (soon to be hurricane) so close by. All of the rain bands are to the south, and the winds are only gusting to 30mph. But we'll get our share when Kat makes her way north.
don't think u will see any more than what u see now. she is heading wsw so she is moving farther away form the coast. miami got crushed. watching the webcast they said there will be alot of damage peopledid not suspect would happen . the sun willcome up and people will be shocked
"...Anyhow, hurricane79 I am not totally sure yet but this storm may land to the west of your people in Pensacola, but very, very close nonetheless..."

I should have said just to the east of Pensacola...however, a landfall to the west is just as feasible at this point...

...well, I hope not 79...my gut feeling is that Katrina may indeed encroach on this area when all is said and done...Southeast LA and the New Orleans CWA is by no means off the hook as well...

...this is a developing dangerous weather situation for the Gulf Coast for everyone should monitor this one very closely...
1135. Valence
And to those of you who were talking about the path of Charlie last year, in regards to the error of the models, you have to remember one crucial fact. (If any of you are still awake)

Charlie was coming in to the coast at a sharp angle, not perpendicular like it looks like Katrina will be headed towards the NE gulf coast. What that means is that a slight deviation in path, like a little jog to the right, means a significant change in the landfall point. Had the storm jogged to the left instead of the right, it would have ended up near Talahasee
allmodels brings her west than nw than north so that takes most of the west coast excpt those areas in the panhandle out of danger now
Many hours ago I said it would hit Panama City (my home). I still think that's gonna happen.
I don't know anywhere near what you folks know about weather. Call it a gut feeling.
My hubby told his best bud that since this storm has my name everybody else will get to see what he's had to endure for the past 10 years.
Kat
Are there any reports from the Keys? What does your webcast say lefty?
yeah plus as i pointed out the models were not in agreement with charley. someof these guys are trying to fight the model consenus and i can't seeher deviating much from the forcast track
here is the link u can just liten like i am doing

Link
wheres panama city.
1142. Valence
I personally think the storm is going to end up a little farther West that the current model consensus, that we'll see a slight shift in the track to the west at each update.

Im thinking closer to the AL/FL border (which, as some people have forgotten, is where Ivan oficially came ashore). But thats just a gut feeling. Anyway you look at, the FL panhandle is in for another shot. I just hope Katrina intensifies so quickly that she can't hold it and weakining as she moves onshore, instead of strengthing.

Anyway, im off to bed . . . i have to be up in 5 hours.

JV
kat ur right in the path. i would take all precautions and evacute when prompted to. this will be a hurricane to remeebr
thats my feeling anywhere the panama city to the fl,miss,al border is a good bet
1145. Valence
Since Frances and Jeanne oficially made landfall at the same place (Stuart, FL), why not this one too?

Since all of these storms seem to double (or triple) bullseyes, im just wondering what wave from the Carribean is going to end up on my doorstep here in Ft. Myers.

JV

Tropical Storm Katrina Now in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico

Issued: 2:45 AM CDT Friday, August 26, 2005


At 3AM CDT Friday, Tropical Storm Katrina will be near 25.3N/81.4W, or 55 miles north-northeast of Key West, Florida. Katrina is moving to the west-southwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 70 mph, with gusts to 95 mph. Central pressure is 990 millibars or 29.23 inches.


Katrina has temporarily weakened to just below hurricane strength as it has moved across southern Florida. However, Katrina should quickly regain hurricane strength within the next few hours. We expect Katrina to begin moving more northwesterly over the next 24-36 hours, followed by a turn to a more northerly path after that.


Katrina will likely become a major Category three hurricane before it makes landfall early Monday morning in the Florida Panhandle. In fact, Katrina might become a strong Category three or possibly a Category four hurricane before that next landfall.


For further details on Katrina, please see your ImpactWeather Storm Commentary and Forecast Track below.


Meteorologist: George Harvey
1147. Valence
And Lefty:

Go to bed too . . . I want you to be conscious when im on here tomorrow. Assuing I can keep power when she makes her turn.

Im really off to bed now.

JV
Can't evac. not enough cash...
We board up and have more botteled water and canned goods that any one person should have. Aslo borrowing a generator this go around.
Panama City is inbetween Pensacola and Apalachicola.
I'll be on here during the storm for as long as the cable holds. Thanks for the warning though.
Kat
1149. Valence
Kat -

Dont be afraid to go to a shelter either. Its not a matter of pride, its survival. Im getting the same bad feeling I had last year with Charlie. Thank god he went futher N, or I may not be tying this right now.

Adios.
Did I detect a wobble???? and only a wobble???
It looks to me that she is creating an outer eye wall Halon.
It's the eye of destruction...! Woohoo!

Armageddon time!
Katrina again a hurricane!
1154. aquak9
Lefty??!! you gotta get some sleep! an exhausted brain DOES NOT run so very well, and many people will be looking for your input today...no one is superman so please go get a few zzz's
1155. Carbo04
Already a hurricane again. I believe 100% we'll see a CAT 4 hitting Florida, Monday.
1156. Carbo04
Possibly even a CAT 5 if it moves westward enough before it goes north.
Or....

...maybe even a CAT 6 (according to StormFlop)!
1158. Carbo04
lol, that's terrible. I wasn't trying to say it would get to CAT 5. I don't think it will, just saying it has a chance with 90 degree water ahead of it.
Yep, here in Panama City Beach...once again, looks like I may be boarding up.
Anyone see the free video from Joe Bastardi. It is a bit old, but damn he is good
1161. nola
My apologies to Dr. Jeff. Woke up and speed clicked to read latest comments before 1st cup of coffee and accidentally "flagged" whole blog as "obscene". Now - gotta read and see if I should batten down or run for the hills...
A word about STORMTOPS posts.....

I think it is important to have everyone's point of view about this potentially dangerous storm. Those of you with the education and experience can evaluate all the fine points in the data and have a legitimate debate. Those of us depending on accurate info need to hear all the opinions - including STORMTOPS.

I live in the Pass Christian area. I remember Camille. As the adjuster said - Camille left slabs, and steps where a home once stood. Relatives of a friend of mine were found dead in a their neighbor's driveway because they did not heed the warnings and leave. If any one of you is even thinking another Camille, I, for one, want to know! There is not much time. I am beginning my serious preparations TODAY.

Over the years, I have observed that storms do not follow the NHC center line track. They go to either side of it.

Thinking of our friends in Florida this morning.......
She is going due west now.
If Katrina moves much more to the west we're gonna start getting nervous in Galveston...
The current models seem to be right on to this point
Good morning!

I hope the models are right on track, if Katrina should move more west and God forbid actually do what Stormtop says we'd have major problems here in LA it takes us 3 days to evacuate and there simply wouldn't be time. I-10 W becomes a parking lot during evacuations.
1167. SherryB
Morning all..I agree..Hope the models are on track as well (not that I want ANYONE to have to go through that) but I am sure hoping there is no major shift to the east but I guess only time will tell us that huh?
Based on StormFlops predictions the whole USA needs to be evacuated! :S
Oh brother Canada is going to love us if we evacuated the whole U.S. and head North. lol
1170. nash28
Any chance this thing makes the northward turn sooner putting the west coast of florida at more risk??
1171. wxgssr
Yes...just as there is a chance that it will not turn as quickly putting areas farther west over to and including SE LA more at risk. Pay attention, prepare now while you still can. Dry foods and bottled water won't go bad...you will use the full tank of gas in your car anyway, and you can always take boards back down off your house.
Lol @ LADobeLady
1173. nash28
Well, I've seen the ridge over Texas build up very strong, but I can't help but think it is going to shift west sooner than the models are figuring. I don't think Katrina will make a sharp Charley hook, but I really think the Big Bend area of Florida is at risk here.
1174. Jedkins
There is a chance the NWS said untill the center is literally due west of tampa we still have to watch it it.
1175. wxgssr
My observations this am. Storm has a little weakness in the N quadrant of the eye, movement is to the SW(the main circ, the dry area in N quadrant can be a bit misleading imo), anchor lo over Central canada is moving rapidly E, and a major sw trof rotated around the low thru the N rockies, and looks to be now moving E without much digging SE at all. Western periphery of the ridge over SE/Cent US still looks to be holding its own, and the ridge may actually build a bit NW as a SW trof/ridge couplet moves thru the flow between the deep LW trof well off the Pacific Coast and the SE/Cent US ridge towards the Canadian low. My bottom line, its still way too early to rally pinpoint a landfall, and small variances in the overall North America dynamics can and WILL make a big difference in where katrina comes ashore again. Nobody is out of the woods yet at all...but the longer she heads SW, the better for the Florida west coast as far as a direct impact. Feeder bands are going to rake the Florida Peninsula all day though...
1176. Jedkins
Homestead had 10 inches from the center alone in a couple hour time!
Jedkins you still think that we need to watch this storm?
The news here seems to really think that we are out of it now.
1179. SherryB
So still a chance of it moving across the State of FL is what you are saying nash and wxgssr? I live between Orlando and Daytona. Do you think there is a need for me to be concerned? As for forecasts, as I stated yesterday, after living through Charley last year, I don't believe them until landfall..LOL
1180. nash28
I don't think Tampa Bay is out of the woods yet. All of our local meteorologists are already talking as if the hurricane were 400 miles west of us already.
NAsh i am one of them Tampa Bay people, do you think that there is a chance that we could see something out of this?
1182. nash28
I believe the timing of that weakness in the ridge is crucial. If she slows much more, that weakness could develop while she is not too far west of the peninsula. If she picks up forward speed, she will move farther west before turning. I am one who is saying we are not by any means out of the proverbial woods.
1183. wxgssr
I think the longer it heads SW and W the better for the Florida peninsula as a whole and particularly Tampa southward(duh, that is stating the obvious, but its true). Entire peninsula will be udner the threat of easter periphery feeder bands...Especially this afternoon with the heating. I really don't see a landfall that would directly threaten Tampa-Orlando-Daytona corridor.
This is what is scary me. I am not good at loking at all the ridges and all so I do not understand any of that.
1185. nash28
We absolutely could see something out of this. I don't think a direct hit is possible since there is nothing in the atmosphere that would cause the storm to hook that far to the right, but as I was telling my wife last night, I believe this storm will still skirt the coast and we will be within 100 miles of the center.
1186. SherryB
Thanks for your opinions guys...I guess its all a waiting and watching game now...This can be addicting..I have been letting a whole lot of things fall by the wayside from watching this storm but heck I can't help myself...I guess I am a meteorologist wanna be..

I don't think a direct hit but I am worrying about it skirting the coast closer then what they think and that could be alot worse for us.

Does anyone see any weakness happening as of yet?
1188. wxgssr
Raysfan...a lot will depend on how the low and trof tracks after it tracks to the E of the northern ridge axis. IF it starts t odig..will pick her up and we will see teh big hook. If it does not dig as much and the ridge maintains more than the modles are going for...she will tack further W. Gotta head to work...i'll be watching...not posting though.
thanxs
good morning
100MPH sustained 122MPh gusts. Cat 2, Pressure is dropping. Will be a 3 when it hits panhandle.
1192. noshoes
I am late getting here...and there is no way I will ever catch up on all the posts of the day. Are we going to be "reliving" Katrina all night?
Thanks.