WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

New Caribbean disturbance 93L a major concern; flooding in Asia kills over 200

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:50 PM GMT on June 21, 2010

A concentrated region of intense thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This disturbance was designated Invest 93L by NHC this morning, and has the best chance to become Tropical Storm Alex of any system we've seen so far this year. The disturbance is located near Buoy 42059, and this buoy has been reporting winds of 5 - 15 knots this morning. So far, pressures are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that 93L is embedded in a large region of moist air. Some dry continental air from North America is over the western Caribbean, but this dry air is too far away to interfere with development today and Tuesday. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The only negative for 93L would seem to be the lack of spin; the University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing only meager amounts of spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude.)


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. With wind shear expected to drop to low values less than 10 knots over the central and western Caribbean this week (Figure 2), I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. The GFS model does not develop 93L. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and extreme southwestern Haiti on Wednesday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday.


Figure 2. Predicted wind shear for Friday, June 25, as forecast by this morning's 2am EDT run of the GFS model. Shear is given in meters per second; multiply by about two to convert to knots. Low wind shear values less than 6 m/s (12 knots) are predicted for much of the Western Caribbean this week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday has weakened and is no longer a threat to bring flooding rains to the Caribbean.

Floods in China and Burma kill over 200
The deadliest and most destructive weather-related disaster on the planet so far this year is occurring in southern China and northern Burma, where a week of heavy rains has caused flooding that has claimed over 200 lives. The death toll stands at 175 in China and 63 in Burma, with more than 100 people still missing in China. Damage so far in China has been estimated at $4.3 billion.


Figure 3. Tree branches hung on a bridge at Taining County, southeast China's Fujian Province, June 19, 2010. Taining recorded 225 mm (9 inches) of rain in six hours on Friday. Image credit: Xinhua/Jiang Kehong.

Montana tornado rips roof off entertainment complex
A EF-2 tornado with winds of at least 100 mph ripped the roof of an entertainment complex in Billings, Montana on Sunday, causing up to $15 million in damage. No injuries were reported. It was the strongest tornado to hit the Billings area since 1958.


Figure 4. Video of the Billings tornado shows an impressive debris cloud (and a few expletives not deleted!) The clear slot on the right of the tornado is likely associated with the parent thunderstorm's rear flank downdraft.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
Southeast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook is uncertain, as the tropical wave over the central Caribbean could enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week and develop into a tropical storm.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters
Billings, MT tornado
Billings, MT tornado
Photo taken from approx. 5-6 miles east. Video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8429C0-LSlo

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

lol levi didnt see it
3502. xcool
btwntx08 ? why
Quoting btwntx08:
actually its a weak ts that it look to be heading to galveston at 196 hr then 24 hrs later at 216 hr it strenghens and goes back towards me crazy huh


Lol. It doesn't like our (upper tx coast)hospitality.
3504. xcool


Quoting xcool:




Still has a lot of work to do on its south side, and even some along the western side as well.
3506. xcool
KoritheMan .need alot
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. It doesn't like our (upper tx coast)hospitality.

that is some track right lol looks like going to galveston first then says wait i dont feel like making landfall there so it said i'll go to the other end of the tx coast lol
3508. xcool
hmm
3509. xcool


it said the lower tx coast is better than the upper tx coast lol also said lets get those beach goers out of the beach and take cover lol
3511. xcool
lolol
Quoting btwntx08:
it said the lower tx coast is better than the upper tx coast lol also said lets get those beach goers out of the beach and take cover lol


Lol.
3513. xcool


at 500m
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 29N PREVAILS ACROSS WESTERN GULF THROUGH
SAT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE. TROPICAL WAVE...NOW
OVER W CARIBBEAN HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WILL SPREAD W OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...WEAKENING WED. THE EXTREME SE PART OF THE BASIN MAY BE
AFFECTED BY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL REACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. SECOND
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 71W S OF HISPANIOLA WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THERE IS
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS WAVE MAY PRODUCE A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE HAS
MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS MAINLY S OF 18N.

SW N ATLC...
ATLC RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ALONG 30/31N THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
KEEPING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW THROUGH ENTIRE BASIN.
It appears to me, based on shortwave infrared satellite animations that 93L might be forming its center further to the north, underneath that deep convection south Hispaniola.

0600 UTC 850 mb vorticity data from CIMSS also supports this:

saw it at 240 hr and it dies in the mtns of mexico striaght to my west
3517. xcool
KoritheMan .i was Just Look At That .
Quoting KoritheMan:
It appears to me, based on shortwave infrared satellite animations that 93L might be forming its center further to the north, underneath that deep convection south of eastern Hispaniola.

yea no wonder that convection look so wierd
3519. xcool



Quoting xcool:



850mb 10,000ft


850 mb is 5,000 feet.
3521. xcool
KoritheMan/opps lol
Quoting KoritheMan:
It appears to me, based on shortwave infrared satellite animations that 93L might be forming its center further to the north, underneath that deep convection south Hispaniola.

0600 UTC 850 mb vorticity data from CIMSS also supports this:


yep
also means just above the surface
3524. xcool
need more convergence.
For anyone confused as to what the commonly cited "mb" levels actually mean, here's a useful link.
Quoting xcool:
need more convergence.

there is some but yea it needs more lol
3527. xcool
btwntx08 alot more.
3528. xcool
KoritheMan thanks
ok im gonna go for the night good night all
3530. xcool
bye rob .i'm out too
Same. Good night Rob, Scott, and everyone else.
3491 post
Lol for this track ...
3533. Walshy
93L is starting to form some more organized convection. Will have to see if we can get a huge blow up of circular convection later this morning.
3534. SykKid
93L looks pitiful. I doubt this develops anytime soon...if at all.
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010)
9:00 AM UTC June 22 2010
==================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Celia (970 hPa) located at 11.8N 104.7W or 430 NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 12.1N 107.6W - 105 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
48 HRS: 12.6N 111.8W - 100 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
72 HRS: 13.7N 116.0W - 90 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-2)
Quoting SykKid:
93L looks pitiful. I doubt this develops anytime soon...if at all.


What? The center appears to be near the deep convection south of Hispaniola. If you're looking at the small patch of convection well to the south of that, then I can understand why you'd make such an assessment. That's not the center though.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010)
9:00 AM UTC June 22 2010
==================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Celia (970 hPa) located at 11.8N 104.7W or 430 NM south of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 12.1N 107.6W - 105 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
48 HRS: 12.6N 111.8W - 100 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-3)
72 HRS: 13.7N 116.0W - 90 knots (SVR Cyclone SSHS-2)


Where do you get these excerpts from? They certainly don't use the NHC's format.
I am using this format.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
I am using this format.


Wait, so you're typing all of this up yourself?
yes.
3541. Walshy
Organizing convection south-west of Santo, Domingo in 93L. Really starting to expand, wouldn't be surprised to see a huge circular ball of convection this later this morning. Ships still bring it over 90mph.
typing it using the data from NHC, of course.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
yes.


Is this format based upon any kind of official format (NHC, JTWC, etc.), or is this your own? Because it looks sort of familiar, though I'm not sure which agency it resembles.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
typing it using the data from NHC, of course.


Yeah, that I knew.
Quoting Walshy:
Organizing convection south-west of Santo, Domingo in 93L. Really starting to expand, wouldn't be surprised to see a huge circular ball of convection this later this morning. Ships still bring it over 90mph.


Convection still appears to be disorganized, though it is improving. I think we'll see a red circle this afternoon, and possibly even this morning.
hmm

I always used this format on this site. Maybe someone is using it elsewhere?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
hmm

I always used this format on this site. Maybe someone is using it elsewhere?


Well, I sometimes see you highlight things such as "Severe Tropical Cyclone [insert name here]", which I do believe might be the IMD's format.

That's why I thought you were simply using the format of an official organization.

I wasn't aware this site had its own format, though. Interesting.
3548. Walshy
Quoting KoritheMan:


Convection still appears to be disorganized, though it is improving. I think we'll see a red circle this afternoon, and possibly even this morning.



Agree. Not sure how why others think it won't develop? Pitiful seems like a poor word for a slowly organizing storm at the moment. Disorganized convection seems to fit it, but starting to see signs of the convection becoming more compact and expanding.
oh ya It is similar to IMD
Quoting KoritheMan:
For anyone confused as to what the commonly cited "mb" levels actually mean, here's a useful link.


Wow! Great link. Thanks. :)
3551. SykKid
Quoting Walshy:



Agree. Not sure how why others think it won't develop? Pitiful seems like a poor word for a slowly organizing storm at the moment. Disorganized convection seems to fit it, but starting to see signs of the convection becoming more compact and expanding.


Which is very typical during D-max. I don't think this system looks all that great. Convection is very shallow.
3552. IKE
00Z UKMET @ 96 hours....

93L looks awful it's just a wave now. I know everything is pointing to it developing but I haven't seen any development from it. Right now I think it's just going to keep moving north and die in the shear
3554. SykKid
Quoting all4hurricanes:
93L looks awful it's just a wave now. I know everything is pointing to it developing but I haven't seen any development from it. Right now I think it's just going to keep moving north and die in the shear


Agreed 100%. But we shall see
Quoting SykKid:


Agreed 100%. But we shall see
stays weak, that is why it is trending westward.
3556. IKE
LOL. Houston's cracking me up. (Granted I could probably use more sleep.) Anyway.

THE WISHCAST IS MUCH
HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST OF WEDNESDAY RAIN
AS MUCH OF THE CWA IS
IN DIRE NEED OF PRECIPITATION...OFFICIAL IAH SITE IS IN A 7.44
INCH HOLE WITH GLS COMING IN OVER 6 INCHES BELOW ANNUAL NORM.
LITTLE VARIANCE IN THE DIURNAL MX/MN TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING TOMORROW DUE TO MORE OVERCAST AND/OR RAIN.

"Wishcast." I didn't know that was an official meteorology term. :)

THE BUZZ ABOUT WHAT COULD BECOME OUR FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE
SEASON IS NOT DYING DOWN. NHC HAS MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE (50%) THAT
THIS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE WILL BECOME A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IF/WHEN THIS DOES OCCUR...CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT IS
HEADING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE DUE TO MUCH BETTER INITIATION.
FWIW...06Z NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A 1000MB STORM JUST OFFSHORE
OF CANCUN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EURO HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON
ITS STRONG IVAN-LOOKING SCENARIO WITH THE GEM STILL CONSISTENT IN
ITS MOBILE BAY-TO-CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE SUNDAY STORM. THE VERY
LIKE-ABLE GFS STILL HAS YET TO WAKE UP TO THE HYPE AS THERE IS NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW UNDER OUR GARGANTUAN 593-ISH DAM RIDGE.


Lol. I think "DAM RIDGE" might be a play on words. ;)
3558. IKE
Coordinates listed on 93L...15.0N and 71.2W. It looks further north then 15N. Looks between 16-17N. Also appears to be in no hurry to develop....yet.
I trust that 93L will develop just give it some time plus it said possible tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and alot can change in that time frame



Gee I'm glad I waited up for this Lake Charles.

.LONG TERM...THE SLOW MOVING EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE SUFFICIENTLY
WEST BY LATE THURSDAY TO RETURN THE POPS BACK TO A MORE SEASONAL LEVEL.
A REBUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GIVE US A DRY WEEKEND.

Sigh.
3561. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Gee I'm glad I waited up for this Lake Charles.

.LONG TERM...THE SLOW MOVING EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE SUFFICIENTLY
WEST BY LATE THURSDAY TO RETURN THE POPS BACK TO A MORE SEASONAL LEVEL.
A REBUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GIVE US A DRY WEEKEND.

Sigh.


I don't blame them. Not much I see through this weekend.
Hi, goodmorning.
While 93L doesn't look like much on satellite imagery, I think the vorticity map tells a different story.


Also, the anticyclone has become friendlier toward it.
93L seems to be much more organized this morning.
Quoting futuremet:
93L seems to be much more organized this morning.


I thought so too. Seems to be headed north a lot quicker than I thought it was. Gonna need to move the floater soon.
UKMET Office 06Z


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T + 48 : 14.9N 79.3W


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.06.2010 14.9N 79.3W WEAK
00UTC 24.06.2010 15.0N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.06.2010 16.3N 82.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.06.2010 16.1N 82.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.06.2010 17.4N 85.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.06.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
Looks like she shed some baby fat over night.

Best estimate on the "center" is 72.5W 16N.

Seems to have gained some core convection at the expense of the outer-most northern band. Too much dry air from the continent late yesterday got wrapped in between bands 1 and 2.

What's left of the old outer band seems to be drenching Haiti right now though.
Was thinking the same thing about moving the floater hw. Doesn't look organized at all to me though.

Forming center looks to have moved a degree north since NHC 2 a.m. Discussion cited 15N 71W.

Link

If that indeed is the center as the vorticity map shows two yellow areas.
this model plots look a little too far west and south to me
Quoting homelesswanderer:
LOL. Houston's cracking me up. (Granted I could probably use more sleep.) Anyway.

THE WISHCAST IS MUCH
HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST OF WEDNESDAY RAIN
AS MUCH OF THE CWA IS
IN DIRE NEED OF PRECIPITATION...OFFICIAL IAH SITE IS IN A 7.44
INCH HOLE WITH GLS COMING IN OVER 6 INCHES BELOW ANNUAL NORM.
LITTLE VARIANCE IN THE DIURNAL MX/MN TEMPS...A DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING TOMORROW DUE TO MORE OVERCAST AND/OR RAIN.

"Wishcast." I didn't know that was an official meteorology term. :)

THE BUZZ ABOUT WHAT COULD BECOME OUR FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE
SEASON IS NOT DYING DOWN. NHC HAS MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE (50%) THAT
THIS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE WILL BECOME A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IF/WHEN THIS DOES OCCUR...CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT IS
HEADING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE DUE TO MUCH BETTER INITIATION.
FWIW...06Z NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A 1000MB STORM JUST OFFSHORE
OF CANCUN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EURO HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON
ITS STRONG IVAN-LOOKING SCENARIO WITH THE GEM STILL CONSISTENT IN
ITS MOBILE BAY-TO-CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE SUNDAY STORM. THE VERY
LIKE-ABLE GFS STILL HAS YET TO WAKE UP TO THE HYPE AS THERE IS NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW UNDER OUR GARGANTUAN 593-ISH DAM RIDGE.


Lol. I think "DAM RIDGE" might be a play on words. ;)


is that this upcoming sunday?? my goodness. (reality sinks in) our local news wmbb said it is out there but not much potential for development but "we are watching it" but they are infamous for lying so tourists will come.
3572. IKE
You can almost see a spin SW of PR on the long-range radar....

Why is it being said that the waters can't get much warmer?
what's interesting is you don't see a lot of shear or upper level winds ripping anything apart. the entire (massive) field is pretty circular.
Based on the 850mb vorticity map, there could possibly be two main vortices. If this is the case, a mesoscale fujiwhara effect is currently occuring. You can see the two vort max areas combining.

Previous Three Hours


Current
Same thing with the anticyclone tightening, future met.
3 hours

-3 hours
3577. RJT185
...still couldn't do a cart-wheel if its life depended on it, which it does. *eyeroll*
I think I see one center dead on 16/70 moving north. Maybe. Gonna have to use the zoom on the Caribbean sat to get a better look. The CMC and NOGAPS have been showing multiple vorts spinning and merging.
If this had happened(i.e. last night 8pm central through this morning) at 25N instead of 15N, it probably would have become the biggest hurricane on record in terms of diameter.
3581. IKE
HWRF on the 00Z run had it centered correctly to me...Link

it appears that that 93L is sitting and waiting for the area now over trinidad. this area has a stronger 850mb vort and could be a seedling of its own
3583. Walshy
Quoting SykKid:


Which is very typical during D-max. I don't think this system looks all that great. Convection is very shallow.



But you have to admit, it took some advantage of D-max and its starting to slowly strengthen. It looks better, still not great tho. I highly doubt it will go north and die in shear like you said. It seems like your down-casting a bit, unless you can tell me why it would go straight north when it has some westward movement.
93L has an anticyclone over it hey talk about low shear I think that this will help with (R I) rapid development

3585. IKE
Definitely a spin there. Convection is increasing, which is expected for the time of day that it is.

How many systems get designated a TD where 93L is at? Mostly happens west of where it is.
Quoting IKE:
HWRF on the 00Z run had it centered correctly to me...Link



Yep looks like its got it.
while thier is the voices of reason on the blog this morning i will make this statement lol. ive seen people with tracks to texas, tracks to fla, tracks through the oil to the n/c gulf coast and its going to be a strong one.. the one forecast you dont hear is that it will hit the central yuc as a weak system, and either poof or remanats get into the southern boc and head to mexico which at the current speed and strength is well in the realm of possibility. these things i have observed tells me two things, we dont have many bloggers from the yuc or se mexico lol. and as ike mentioned yesterday,if this does not develop in the favorable surroundings it has,maybe thier is someething we are missing in the tropical setup. have a blessed day.
HWRF takes it to 47.5kts near western jamaica, then does a weird fujiwara effect, turning almost straight north over cuba, then back to the central Gulf.


GFDL is still calling for one hell of a borderline category 3/4 hurricane over central gulf. 115kts, and practically a clone of Gustav.

CMC is trying to verify both a fujiwara and TWO 992mb-ish lows in the gulf.

GFS takes a western track into yucatan and does nothing with anything anywhere.
3590. IKE
Quoting futuremet:
Based on the 850mb vorticity map, there could possibly be two main vortices. If this is the case, a mesoscale fujiwhara effect is currently occuring. You can see the two vort max areas combining.

Previous Three Hours


Current


Morning All.

Still having issues with the LLC this morning I see. Seems to be working out the bugs as the multi-vortices are more compact this morning. Another day, seems like.
With the anticyclone over it, today might be the day we get a TD.
Good morning to everyone. I think this thing is really going to get ramping up today.
Quoting RecordSeason:
HWRF takes it to 47.5kts near western jamaica, then does a weird fujiwara effect, turning almost straight north over cuba, then back to the central Gulf.


GFDL is still calling for one hell of a borderline category 3/4 hurricane over central gulf. 115kts, and practically a clone of Gustav.

CMC is trying to verify both a fujiwara and TWO 992mb-ish lows in the gulf.

GFS takes a western track into yucatan and does nothing with anything anywhere.



GFS takes a western track into yucatan and does nothing with anything anywhere. Wouldn't that be hilarious, the blog would have a heart attack. That's the one I am pulling for though. Trying to keep canes out of the gulf till they can get these relief wells in. They are ahead of drilling schedule but, depends on how long it takes to intersect the well line.
93L isn't showing much, nor organized voticity at any level at the moment. Still has a long way to go, IMO. Given the favorable conditions it's in, things can happen pretty quick once it decides it wants to make a move though.
3596. RJT185
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


morning!!
Agree Cyclone. Anyway, cu l8r.
Looks like they repositioned the floater (further out).
IRLoop
It's gonna be red at 8 a.m. but I won't shave my head if it's not!
maybe the gfs is right and 10000 posts will again be a waste of time lol. just wonder how many post thier will be when we have a real strong system heading for the us lol
also the relief wells are no guarantee of success. i have rad other scientists opinions that another deep well could cause the same catastrophe we have now only two gushers instead of one.
The CMC comes up with the craziest scenarios, the GFS is some times too relaxed, i think we are bound to see one thing to develop soon.
Good Morning. One comment and one questions for the AM gang. As to the comment, with all of the heat energy in the tropics, it would come as no surprise that the first few storms of the season might end up as hurricanes as opposed to tropical storms. As to the question, I was not looking at it overnight, when NHC gave it the 50% at 2:00 am but it looks a little ragged this morning to my eyes. How did it look around mid-night last night or 1:00 am this morning........Better than it looks now?.......Thanks.
COC of 93L in my estimartion 14.9N/72.8W
3603. MahFL
The center seems to be forming at 70W 15.5N
3604. MahFL
Stormpetrol, your just a touch too far west - imho,I see clouds moving south just west of 70.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. One comment and one questions for the AM gang. As to the comment, with all of the heat energy in the tropics, it would come as no surprise that the first few storms of the season might end up as hurricanes as opposed to tropical storms. As to the question, I was not looking at it overnight, when NHC gave it the 50% at 2:00 am but it looks a little ragged this morning to my eyes. How did it look around mid-night last night or 1:00 am this morning........Better than it looks now?.......Thanks.


Its not looking ragged, the COC appears to be forming in the convection to the W.
I just wanted to say, the raw commentary in that video is hilarious!
MOVEMENT? 93l has not budged an inch in 24 hours. it is stationary and there is no center of anything in it. it is a stationary wave and may develop in 24-48 hrs.
Good morning

93L is still very disorganized this morning but that is not surprising given where it started. Even with an anticyclone overhead the Caribbean is simply not conducive for development until close to Jamaica near 75W.

The impression I get from the satellite imagery is one of two competing areas of relatively weak vorticity within a much larger and more diffuse gyre. Until the system resolves this dysfunctional structure it will not develop into a TD.
Regardless of the potential for short term development, it is very close to Haiti right now and a potential nighmare for the earthquake vitims in temporary housing if the rains, or bands, expand across Haiti over the course of the day.
hey stormpetrol whats up what going on over by your side
I have the COC right between the two main convection blobs, thats also were the NRL has it too.
3616. IKE
What I sense from the models is a broad area of low pressure in the GOM in 5-7 days. I see the ridge breaking down early next week on the GFS. In the end this may just be nothing more than an increase in moisture along the northern GOM.

It could be more, but I don't see it right now.
3617. IKE
Down to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

40% now.
look what happened to the gfdl major hurricane. now its a weak low in the west central gulf after being disrupted by the yucatan. gfs still shows nothing. hrwf has not updated if it shows nothing then the crazy cmc would be basically on its own , and thats normal lol.
Quoting IKE:
Down to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE



That fits with what we are seeing this morning.
to further expound on the obvious;

93l is a stationary tropical wave
93l has no coc
93l cannot be acurately modeled until coc develops
93l is still many hours away from looking decent enough to even develop a coc

oh did I mention that accurate models cannot be created until a coc has formed.

93l is a waste of time right now and may be better in 24-48 hrs.
Strange, the NHC didn't state why they bumped it down to 40%. They didn't say it has 'changed little in organization' or 'less organized.'
3625. WxLogic
Good morning...
Morning all!

This is starting to remind me of last years season, altho I know it wont be anything like it, I just mean in regards to how nothing could get going LOL. We are all going to go mental! lol.

Morning Storm

Kman, I really enjoy your input... one avatar I always look for to read what you have to say.
if you do not believe me that 93l is stationary, look at this long loop and focus on the first animation, last 48 hrs.

I have a feeling 93L's going to be like pre-Dolly and pre-Fay. Drive us all insane.
In the short term, there are actually two major impediments IMHO to formation....Close proximity to land, and, the bands of high sheer across the northen quadrant of the area of interest......A general west to south-west movement might be the best chance for it given the current sheer profiles.....It's rather "boxed in" at the moment.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I have a feeling 93L's going to be like pre-Dolly and pre-Fay. Drive us all insane.


I am already losing sleep over this thing! LOL. I must have woke up 3 times wanting to check the blog. Is there a tropical weather rehab? ;)
IKE it is expected to drop down due to the loss of convection but once that gains some and the low level spin can get more pronounced then we will get 60% and higher
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Strange, the NHC didn't state why they bumped it down to 40%. They didn't say it has 'changed little in organization' or 'less organized.'
This time yesterday morning it had a more cohesive structure and was in the process of developing a banding type cloud formation. Today the cloud deck is all over the place.

While the NHC did not specifically say it is less organized today I think the deterioration in satellite appearance coupled with the fact that no well defined low has developed some 24 hours later implicitly suggests a less well organized system warranting a downgrade.
Quoting alaina1085:


I am already losing sleep over this thing! LOL. I must have woke up 3 times wanting to check the blog. Is there a tropical weather rehab? ;)


Haha me too! I woke up at 2 am to check the TWO.. its an obsession! If there is a rehab, sign me up LOL.
Good Morning!

How is our over-hyped convergence line doing this morning?
3639. MahFL
One thing is for sure, there is not much shear over the coc.....which is bad news.....
Quoting StormW:
It's fixing to get interesting. Remember that area just east of the Antilles folks were ranting about...well guess what's sneaking up on 93L?

IR2


Uh oh. Not the dreaded Vulcan mind meld ?.
Quoting StormW:


What shear?


The sheer across Haiti, moving from west to east, in the 30-40 knot range if I am reading the chart correctly?....... :)
Quoting kmanislander:
This time yesterday morning it had a more cohesive structure and was in the process of developing a banding type cloud formation. Today the cloud deck is all over the place.

While the NHC did not specifically say it is less organized today I think the deterioration in satellite appearance coupled with the fact that no well defined low has developed some 24 hours later implicitly suggests a less well organized system warranting a downgrade.


Yea, that sounds about right with what the ASCAT showed. We need an organized LLC for anything to get going. Also to note, remember the John Hope rule? 'If it doesn't develop in the Eastern Caribbean, it wont do so until it gets to the western' I believe 93L is following that rule. I've actually rarely seen a tropical cyclone break it.
3644. cg2916
Morning all!

What happened to 93L? It's looking worse than last night.
Quoting StormW:
Morning kman!


Good morning. So you think a third area of vorticity is going to help 93L ?. Interesting thing is that the vort from the SE is moving at a much faster clip than 93L. I don't know how the two will go about matching up like that.
3648. cg2916
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


The sheer across Haiti, moving from west to east, in the 30-40 knot range if I am reading the chart correctly?....... :)


The most it's facing is 20 knots at the very northernmost clouds.
3649. pottery
'Morning.
Big changes in 7 hours since I last looked at 93 and the wave east of here.
Neither area looks threatening at the moment.
Surprising to me, both of them.
I thought we were getting torrential rain here today, and it's the prettiest morning I have seen in a long time.

Ah!! The Weather...
Quoting cg2916:
Morning all!

What happened to 93L? It's looking worse than last night.

It's stubborn!
3653. MahFL
The shear across Haiti is only 20 to 30. The coc is way south east of Haiti. There shear is only 5 to 15 at the most.
3654. cg2916
Storm, what happened to 93L?
Quoting kmanislander:
This time yesterday morning it had a more cohesive structure and was in the process of developing a banding type cloud formation. Today the cloud deck is all over the place.

While the NHC did not specifically say it is less organized today I think the deterioration in satellite appearance coupled with the fact that no well defined low has developed some 24 hours later implicitly suggests a less well organized system warranting a downgrade.
True. Looking at 850 millibar vorticity there looks to be two strong areas of vorticity, Fujiwhara? But they seem to be combining. (Yes I'm back, but won't post as much as before, didn't mean to cause a fuss on the blog last night).
3657. cg2916
Quoting DestinJeff:


is that the action the as-of-now smoking crack CMC is picking up and throwing thru the keys and into the GOM?


Don't forget the one in the northern CATL.
Quoting MahFL:
The shear across Haiti is only 20 to 30. The coc is way south east of Haiti. There shear is only 5 to 15 at the most.


3648. cg2916 7:52 AM EDT on June 22, 2010

Thank you both.........That looks correct.
This blog is quirky at times. Just corrected a post and it duplicated the incorrect one LOL
3660. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
True. Looking at 850 millibar vorticity there looks to be two strong areas of vorticity, Fujiwhara? But they seem to be combining. (Yes I'm back, but won't post as much as before, didn't mean to cause a fuss on the blog last night).


Is that why 93L is looking so ragged?
3661. MahFL
93L is a normal invest, they often take several days to form into a TD, be patient.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
True. Looking at 850 millibar vorticity there looks to be two strong areas of vorticity, Fujiwhara? But they seem to be combining. (Yes I'm back, but won't post as much as before, didn't mean to cause a fuss on the blog last night).


Welcome back. Last night is forgotten, don't worry about it. Taking a break from time to time is good for the eyes though LOL
Quoting Orcasystems:
FUBAR



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


There are at least 4 models taking it to the Oil Rig area, with three of them as a Cat 1 or 2
Quoting cg2916:


Is that why 93L is looking so ragged?
Not really, but close. Could of had a bad diurnal minimum, looks like it's due to not having a well-defined circulation. There is an anticyclone aloft so it should be improving steadily at the surface and with convection.
Off topic of 93L, we have been having some extreme heat here in SELA. Is this supposed to continue through the summer? If its already 98 with a heat index of 110 what is August and Sept gonna look like?
We cant even enjoy summer here its so hot. Pools feel like hot tubs, its rediculous. Its sad when your 3 year old begs to go inside because its too hot.
We go from an extreme winter, to an extreme summer! Thanks el nino, la nina!
Quoting kmanislander:


Welcome back. Last night is forgotten, don't worry about it. Taking a break from time to time is good for the eyes though LOL
Thanks, lol.
3670. pottery
Interesting comments on 93L
Kman and Storm...I wondered last night when I looked at the IR Loops, and said that the north and east sides of the system looked to be blowing away. Looked like shear.
I was corrected and told this was actually venting and was beneficial to the system.

What is/was the effect of what was happening there??
Quoting StormW:


Look, quit beatin' yourself up. I don't know exactly what happened last night, but I'm alive, kman is alive, the world is still here, etc. So...must not be a big deal.
Yes, StormW. Lol, it was an odd night last night, but like Kman said, it's all forgotten and we I have no problems anymore, if I do I'll just take it to e-mail.
Quoting alaina1085:
Off topic of 93L, we have been having some extreme heat here in SELA. Is this supposed to continue through the summer? If its already 98 with a heat index of 110 what is August and Sept gonna look like?
We cant even enjoy summer here its so hot. Pools feel like hot tubs, its rediculous. Its sad when your 3 year old begs to go inside because its too hot.
We go from an extreme winter, to an extreme summer! Thanks el nino, la nina!


The warm pattern across the Gulf Coast might continue through the summer and even half of fall. JMO
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thanks, lol.


Your young so let me give ya a tid bit of advice that I wish I had learned at 13. The world is cruel, some ppl are cruel, you have to have a tough thick skin to make it these days! So in the words of our beloved Aaliyah... "Dust yourself off and try again!"
How you think Donald Trump did it ;)
3675. IKE
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 21N70W ACROSS CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG
15N72W TO OVER LAKE MARACAIBO NEAR 10N71W MOVING WNW 10 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE S OF
15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W
AND 72W.
Quoting alaina1085:


Your young so let me give ya a tid bit of advice that I wish I had learned at 13. The world is cruel, some ppl are cruel, you have to have a tough thick skin to make it these days! So in the words of our beloved Aaliyah... "Dust yourself off and try again!"
How you think Donald Trump did it ;)
Lol. Didn't mean for last night to sound like a soap opera it was just between TampaSpin and me. Thanks, btw.
Quoting BenBIogger:


The warm pattern across the Gulf Coast might continue through the summer and even half of fall. JMO
Quoting StormW:


Hrad to say at that long of a range...but that ridge has been near your area now since before the beginning of June, and the pattern (shows up on steering) keeps reloading the same way (since mid May)


Thanks guys. Thats what I was afraid of, time to move up north!
The COC is SE of Haiti and north of the intialization this morning. The trend seems to have the center form further north. THe COC appears to be on the in the northern blob of convection just South of DR and SE of Haiti.
Quoting cg2916:
Morning all!

What happened to 93L? It's looking worse than last night.


its just regenerating.... be patient. these things take days to form, its just another invest.
Quoting cg2916:
Storm, what happened to 93L?
3681. IKE
If I were a betting man, which I'm not, I would say this will still be unclassified Thursday morning.

I see the ridge finally breaking down early next week in the SE USA, so if 93L gets it the GOM/GOO, it's moisture might simply get drawn north into the coast.

The 6-10 day precip outlook calls for above normal precip along the northern gulf coast...

3682. aquak9
MH09- good to have ya back. Kinda hard to play in adult swim at times. Being adults, we got WAY MORE worries than one at your age...and life didn't really come with an instruction manual.

Chin up, never give up. Your folks are doing something right. :)
Quoting StormW:


Well, right now, I don't know if it's going to help or hinder it...but the way things look, it looks like a good chance of that getting entrained into 93L.


93L is half way across the Caribbean and I don't think that vort will catch it. One scenario is that a new low spins up from that feature in the position where 93L is today in about 48 hours. We could see a new and entirely seperate threat develop from that very potent 850 mb feature.
Well thank you for your support and I will continue to follow 93L for development, off to do stuff, be back around 4:30 PM.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol. Didn't mean for last night to sound like a soap opera it was just between TampaSpin and me. Thanks, btw.

Its all good, I was eating my popcorn :)
3686. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 21N70W ACROSS CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG
15N72W TO OVER LAKE MARACAIBO NEAR 10N71W MOVING WNW 10 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE WAVE S OF
15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W
AND 72W.


Indeed... my thinking was the same. I also received some info from family in Dominican Republic that due to the heavy rains one of the major rivers has risen to dangerous levels due to all the rain that had been falling for the last couple days.

Definitely not a good situation for Haiti either.

Thankfully the system has been keeping itself south enough to not be an even worst nuisance.
Quoting alaina1085:
Off topic of 93L, we have been having some extreme heat here in SELA. Is this supposed to continue through the summer? If its already 98 with a heat index of 110 what is August and Sept gonna look like?
We cant even enjoy summer here its so hot. Pools feel like hot tubs, its rediculous. Its sad when your 3 year old begs to go inside because its too hot.
We go from an extreme winter, to an extreme summer! Thanks el nino, la nina!


Drought conditions are building through much of LA as well so rain would be a good thing right now. Drought feeds extreme heat so hopefully substantial rain will fall soon.
3689. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
MH09- good to have ya back. Kinda hard to play in adult swim at times. Being adults, we got WAY MORE worries than one at your age...and life didn't really come with an instruction manual.

Chin up, never give up. Your folks are doing something right. :)


After all....it's the weather...there's nothing you can do about it.

3690. pottery
Quoting StormW:


Well, this one's a tricky critter...I saw last night at least 3 different vorticies (typical of a developing system). The upper level anticyclone however, even though the winds are like 20 kts to the north, shouldn't have a negative effect, as being under the anticyclone, the winds are spreading out from the center, vice coming from the west in a shearing (zonal) pattern.

OK Thanks.
Need to make a bigger effort to understand those mechanics....
There was a segment on The Weather Channel about a week or so ago showing just how dry LA has been as of late and infact northern LA is in a moderate drought.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Drought conditions are building through much of LA as well so rain would be a good thing right now. Drought feeds extreme heat so hopefully substantial rain will fall soon.

Bring on the rain!!

Quoting StormW:


And you didn't share any with me?


Im a fat kid Storm! We dont share food! LOL ;)
Quoting alaina1085:

Its all good, I was eating my popcorn :)


Ike, I believe you started a trend here.
3694. IKE
A week from today, all hell started breaking lose in 2005....up to the E storm by July 11th...just 19 days from now. Fortunately this years comparison to 2005, hasn't materialized yet.



Well, this one's a tricky critter...



Hmmm....naw...
Storm, why is 93L in such a ragged stage, is it regenerating or something???
Quoting alaina1085:

Bring on the rain!!



Im a fat kid Storm! We dont share food! LOL ;)


Like a fat kid loves cake!LOL
The only rain we get are just those normal summer afternoon pop up showers. But the sun is still out and it lasts a whole 10 minutes. Its just enough to make your grass grow even faster so you have to get out there twice a week in the extremem heat and cut it! Sounds like mother nature is playin games to me :)

Ike, have yall been having any extreme heat there?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
True. Looking at 850 millibar vorticity there looks to be two strong areas of vorticity, Fujiwhara? But they seem to be combining. (Yes I'm back, but won't post as much as before, didn't mean to cause a fuss on the blog last night).


Hey 09, I've been lurking here for three years now, and I dont usually say too much, if anything. But I felt compelled to tell you not to worry too much about people getting snippy with you on this forum. Clearly you have an interest, talent and drive when it comes to meteorology, and I think you should stick with it, study your sciences hard and never give up on your goals. My son began pursuing his career as a lihting designer at 13, and at 15, he's already light years beyond most adults in his chosen field, and has worked with a number of famous musicians. He has job offers right and left, and I know I don't have to worry about him making his way in this world doing what makes him happier than anything else.
And you should pursue your goals just as relentlessly.
So don't give up, and don't let people hurt your feelings. Just keep moving forward, and good luck.
if i can get someone to awnser lol seems my post are not visible? if the conditions are going to be so favorable in the gulf why do al the models other than the crazy cmc, maintain a weak or weakenig system in the gulf? also i asked this once before with the favorable conditions we have now and nothing imenent to develop is there something else going on we are missing ike you mentioned this yesterday. also ike you have been spot on so far this year with your observations and you like me do not claim to be a pro lol
Quoting Jeff9641:


Like a fat kid loves cake!LOL

Mmmm cake!!!!

Thanks for the map Ben!! Looks like im not in the drought. Im just under the yellow in Ascension parish. Could have fooled me tho... its so freakin hott.
3704. IKE
93L is in a bad spot for Hispaniola....for rain.
Quoting weatherman12345:
Storm, why is 93L in such a ragged stage, is it regenerating or something???


I've noticed the COC or what appears to be one trying to form keeps reforming N. Also appears to be strong Low Level shear out of the SE which is why we never had a SW Caribbean storm so far.
is it red yet or still orange?
93L looks a little better
Quoting alaina1085:

Mmmm cake!!!!

Thanks for the map Ben!! Looks like im not in the drought. Im just under the yellow in Ascension parish. Could have fooled me tho... its so freakin hott.


No big rain in sight either unless 93L pays you a visit but if it does most of LA will be on the weaker western side.
Quoting twhcracker:
is it red yet or still orange?

Orange, down to 40%
Now I understand the CMC on crack statement. LOL

Two storms in the N. GOM?
Quoting Jeff9641:


No big rain in sight either unless 93L pays you a visit but if it does most of LA will be on the weaker western side.

Yea and that wouldnt end up amounting to much... maybe a 2mph gust of wind ;p
If you were watching yesterday, the reason it's so ragged is actually because it "was" so big. It was interacting a lot with SA continent and even getting sheared on the south side by the waves over land in the continent.

Then it absorbed some of the waves down there, as could be seen on IR2, but after that, there was no moisture and it sucked up a lot of dry air (at the surface) from the continent. So all things taken, the northern band has been blown off by the time that dry air wrapped around and the fact it was already interacting with the islands to the north.

In the end, it's going to make it a smaller circulation than it was previously.
ok ok, i say... RED by 2:00 PM central.
Quoting pottery:
Interesting comments on 93L
Kman and Storm...I wondered last night when I looked at the IR Loops, and said that the north and east sides of the system looked to be blowing away. Looked like shear.
I was corrected and told this was actually venting and was beneficial to the system.

What is/was the effect of what was happening there??


Hi there,

Sorry I didn't reply but the internet on the computer I was on went out so I am on a different one now that is hard wired. Sometimes the wrieless coverage in the house goes bonkers.

I saw the explanation from Storm and mine is less technical. In simple terms, I think the problems plaguing 93L have more to do with climatology than anything else. It is in an area , and has been for the last 24 hours, that just does not allow TDs to develop save in the most exceptional circumstances.

The behaviour of 93L is therefore in keeping with what one would expect to see, not the other way around.

Quoting StormW:


She doesn't look fat!

LOL, im not, its just a figure of speech! I can eat like I am!
3720. IKE
Here's a 144 hour shear loop from the GFS, but it's based off of where 93L goes...Link
3721. pottery
Quoting Jeff9641:


I've noticed the COC or what appears to be one trying to form keeps reforming N. Also appears to be strong Low Level shear out of the SE which is why we never had a SW Caribbean storm so far.

This is what I am questioning.
Can the shear-maps be wrong??
When I look at the loops, I see something that makes me think that the system is being stressed from winds.
Having said that (and accepting that I am lacking in experience here), I find it strange that the area all over the East Carib and extending into the Atl east of Trinidad has lost so much moisture overnight.
Supposed to build during DMax.........not shrink??
To me, very easy to see the COC this morning. It is partially exposed at about 16.6 72.6 ish
Link

The way of 93L???
3725. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


would have been nice for that one to dump the central GOM idea along with some of the others.


Most all models put 93L in the GOM...from the BOC to the northern gulf coast. May just be a rain event.

Stay tuned!

$$$
Quoting StormW:


I kinda figured that! Just paying a compliment.

You and me both...ya got ta keep da cake away from me.


Thanks. Yea I just enjoy everything right now because I know in the future the metabolism will slow eventually.

(Pokes 93L, Get moving!)
93L actually is well put together this morning according to the visible sat images. COC has redeveloped further north last night so a eastern gulf storm is now a good possiblity.
Ike,

In my opinion there is just about no way the gulf coast is gonna slide by without a hurricane this year. And having said that it might be better to get it overwith early when sst's arent as high as they will be later on in the summer.... just sayin!
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
if i can get someone to awnser lol seems my post are not visible? if the conditions are going to be so favorable in the gulf why do al the models other than the crazy cmc, maintain a weak or weakenig system in the gulf? also i asked this once before with the favorable conditions we have now and nothing imenent to develop is there something else going on we are missing ike you mentioned this yesterday. also ike you have been spot on so far this year with your observations and you like me do not claim to be a pro lol


1. Models are notoriously unreliable with a weak system before it is classified as a TD. The models are probably all wrong about what will ultimately happen.

2. As to why 93L is the way it is, see my post 3718.

Hope this helps.
take a good look at 93L on the visible sat loop, I think it actually looks more organized than some are giving it credit for, it actually has more of a spin with it this morning and seems to be in the process of establishing a well defined LLC, just my opinion of course.
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Ike,

In my opinion there is just about no way the gulf coast is gonna slide by without a hurricane this year. And having said that it might be better to get it overwith early when sst's arent as high as they will be later on in the summer.... just sayin!


I'd rather not have one at all, Besides the SST's in the GOM are already smokin
3732. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there,

Sorry I didn't reply but the internet on the computer I was on went out so I am on a different one now that is hard wired. Sometimes the wrieless coverage in the house goes bonkers.

I saw the explanation from Storm and mine is less technical. In simple terms, I think the problems plaguing 93L have more to do with climatology than anything else. It is in an area , and has been for the last 24 hours, that just does not allow TDs to develop save in the most exceptional circumstances.

The behaviour of 93L is therefore in keeping with what one would expect to see, not the other way around.


Thanks. Clearly put.
I am still trying to understand WHY this is so.
There has to be a physical reason for it's behaviour, given the way it looked and was forecasted to behave.
50% is touch-and-go I know. But the mechanics is intriguing me!
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I'd rather not have one at all, Besides the SST's in the GOM are already smokin


Yeah, I know I know, me either. But we both know that what we want and what we are gonna get usually dont jive.
3734. Drakoen
I see the GFDL, HWRF, CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF all develop 93L to some extent.
Leading edge is starting to come out of the dead zone now.

It's a slow mover and still pretty big, so it's probably still going to be another 24 hours before the center reaches 75 west.
3736. Dakster
Quoting DestinJeff:
Some twice-barreled CMC love for the northern Gulf coast:

Click to enlarge


I see the CMC is living up to its namesake of Constantly Making Cyclones...
Quoting Drakoen:
I see the GFDL, HWRF, CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF all develop 93L to some extent.


Basically, 93L has great model support for the long range. We'll most likely see something. This is in the Central Caribbean, storms never develop there.. only in the Eastern or the Western.. remember the John Hope rule. Its likely that 93L might have genesis by Friday or Thursday night imo. People need to be patient with this system.

Good morning, is anyone else getting a server error when trying to access 93L on the Navy site?
Quoting Drakoen:
I see the GFDL, HWRF, CMC, UKMET, and ECMWF all develop 93L to some extent.


I don't like the latest model run of GFDL. It would go right over the oil.
3741. Walshy
Quoting stormpetrol:
take a good look at 93L on the visible sat loop, I think it actually looks more organized than some are giving it credit for, it actually has more of a spin with it this morning and seems to be in the process of establishing a well defined LLC, just my opinion of course.



I guess if it relocated further north then it will get that spin it needed...
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Yeah, I know I know, me either. But we both know that what we want and what we are gonna get usually dont jive.


All we can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best this year. The only thing is, how do you prepare for the possibility of millions of gallons of oil being washed ashore and inland? I think Pat is right when he talks about Oilzilla.
3743. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:

Good morning, is anyone else getting a server error when trying to access 93L on the Navy site?


Mine works...Link

EDIT...oops...you're correct. I get the same.
93L is more organized I really don't see what you guys are seeing. There is a definite COC just SE of Haiti moving WNW. Most convection is north and east of the center. Models will shift north on the 6Z run as the center has formed further north.
kaman thanks for the reply. im beginning to thank storm w and ike have me on block dont want to reply lol.
Quoting IKE:


Mine works...Link

Quoting pottery:

Thanks. Clearly put.
I am still trying to understand WHY this is so.
There has to be a physical reason for it's behaviour, given the way it looked and was forecasted to behave.
50% is touch-and-go I know. But the mechanics is intriguing me!


One reason is that the winds tend to be very fast along the North coast of SA and this tends to undercut the formation of a West wind on the South side of a developing low. Ever been to Aruba ?. A calm day is 25 mph winds. I tried to play golf there once and the salt spray was so storng I had to clean my glasses every 10 minutes. Trees grow 6 feet tall and ten feet to the side. yesterday mornign winds were very light in the ABC islands but that is the exception rather than the rule.

These fast winds then tend to slow dramatically just off the coast of Nicaragua leading to big thunderstorm blow ups due to speed convergence.

Lastly, the Eastern Caribbean has less " sea room " than the Western Caribbean where the basin widens significantly with the area North of Panama. Thus, dry air entrainment from the SA continent can also play havoc with a weak system.

I am sure there are other elements I have not mentioned but put together they tend to discourage development there.
Actually looks pretty impressive here.

Combination visible/ir
3751. aquak9
could someone give me a brief synopsis of the John Hope Rule?
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
kaman thanks for the reply. im beginning to thank storm w and ike have me on block dont want to reply lol.


I doubt it. The blog is moving quite fast; not easy to field all the questions
3754. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
kaman thanks for the reply. im beginning to thank storm w and ike have me on block dont want to reply lol.


See post 3720. I was going to mention what the CMC shear run showed, but it looked like a bad run...or maybe it's just the CMC.
bye, ill check progress later on 93L
Quoting pottery:

This is what I am questioning.
Can the shear-maps be wrong??
When I look at the loops, I see something that makes me think that the system is being stressed from winds.
Having said that (and accepting that I am lacking in experience here), I find it strange that the area all over the East Carib and extending into the Atl east of Trinidad has lost so much moisture overnight.
Supposed to build during DMax.........not shrink??


THe coc has now formed and it seems to be pulling in all the moisture from the SE which tells me 93L is beginning to get more compact.
CoC definitely near 72.5W and 16.5N.

Maybe this is going to be the true center? It's far enough away from SA now.
Quoting stormpetrol:
take a good look at 93L on the visible sat loop, I think it actually looks more organized than some are giving it credit for, it actually has more of a spin with it this morning and seems to be in the process of establishing a well defined LLC, just my opinion of course.

Not really...still an open wave...I can't find any surface circulation yet.
Quoting Chicklit:

Good morning, is anyone else getting a server error when trying to access 93L on the Navy site?
Yes.
3760. aquak9
sainthurrifan...whoa, blast from the past. :)
Quoting DestinJeff:


you might be looking at the 00Z .. the 6Z takes it further west and not anywhere near as strong
Link


Thanks, I guess I was looking at an old run. I get most of my models from hamweather.com
Quoting RecordSeason:
Actually looks pretty impressive here.

Combination visible/ir



on 93L?
Quoting StormW:
Just got looking at some things (Drak, jump on board here if you wish)...I remember, I think it was last year, we had a system that didn't appear to be under any shear, but there was some at around 700MB if I remember...could be one thing here, as if you look at the vorticity map, doesn't appear to be too vertically stacked.

Water vapor imagery indicates some slight presence of dry air to the east of the "center" also.

WV LOOP


When I was in PR last week storm there seemed to be a presence of Saharan dust as the skies were very hazy and conditions were very dry and hot.
Satellites don't think they just show..
There is no circulation, no COC,LCC nada..
Just an open wave...and with most of the convection heading north and getting sheared..
3766. Walshy
Quoting aquak9:
could someone give me a brief synopsis of the John Hope Rule?


The John Hope rule. If it hasn't developed by the time it gets in the eastern Caribbean, it won't until it reaches the western Caribbean.
3767. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


One reason is that the winds tend to be very fast along the North coast of SA and this tends to undercut the formation of a West wind on the South side of a developing low. Ever been to Aruba ?. A calm day is 25 mph winds. I tried to play golf there once and the salt spray was so storng I had to clean my glasses every 10 minutes. Trees grow 6 feet tall and ten feet to the side. yesterday mornign winds were very light in the ABC islands but that is the exception rather than the rule.

These fast winds then tend to slow dramatically just off the coast of Nicaragua leading to big thunderstorm blow ups due to speed convergence.

Lastly, the Eastern Caribbean has less " sea room " than the Western Caribbean where the basin widens significantly with the area North of Panama. Thus, dry air entrainment from the SA continent can also play havoc with a weak system.

I am sure there are other elements I have not mentioned but put together they tend to discourage development there.

Begins to make more sense. Thanks.
Never been to Aruba. But have seen those "DiviDivi" trees growing as though they have been sculpted by the wind.
Survival through aeronautical design!
3768. 7544
wow could this be right 2 states get hit at once lol

Link
3769. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:
Just got looking at some things (Drak, jump on board here if you wish)...I remember, I think it was last year, we had a system that didn't appear to be under any shear, but there was some at around 700MB if I remember...could be one thing here, as if you look at the vorticity map, doesn't appear to be too vertically stacked.

Water vapor imagery indicates some slight presence of dry air to the east of the "center"

WV LOOP


I see no evidence of mid level shear. Also the environment is very moist from 300mb to the surface based on the relative humidity out of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Quoting Jeff9641:


THe coc has now formed and it seems to be pulling in all the moisture from the SE which tells me 93L is beginning to get more compact.

Show me on what you see a COC?
Maybe the NHC can't access the Navy site either...lol. I think I see Alex starting to peek its head out from that diurnal mess!

Sailingallover you are in good company with KmanIslander; however, even though there is not yet a LLC it will take only a small nudge, possibly west, for that to happen.
Quoting kmanislander:


One reason is that the winds tend to be very fast along the North coast of SA and this tends to undercut the formation of a West wind on the South side of a developing low. Ever been to Aruba ?. A calm day is 25 mph winds. I tried to play golf there once and the salt spray was so storng I had to clean my glasses every 10 minutes. Trees grow 6 feet tall and ten feet to the side. yesterday mornign winds were very light in the ABC islands but that is the exception rather than the rule.

These fast winds then tend to slow dramatically just off the coast of Nicaragua leading to big thunderstorm blow ups due to speed convergence.

Lastly, the Eastern Caribbean has less " sea room " than the Western Caribbean where the basin widens significantly with the area North of Panama. Thus, dry air entrainment from the SA continent can also play havoc with a weak system.

I am sure there are other elements I have not mentioned but put together they tend to discourage development there.


Usually just lurk and learn but just had to say thanks that was very clear, concise, and I think I understood it.
Time to get on with the day now. See you all later. Hopefully by then 93L will show signs of doing one thing or another.
3774. Drakoen
Quoting sailingallover:
Satellites don't think they just show..
There is no circulation, no COC,LCC nada..
Just an open wave...and with most of the convection heading north and getting sheared..


The descending pass comes out in the morning and has not loaded yet. Your image is showing the ascending pass.
Quoting kmanislander:


93L is half way across the Caribbean and I don't think that vort will catch it. One scenario is that a new low spins up from that feature in the position where 93L is today in about 48 hours. We could see a new and entirely seperate threat develop from that very potent 850 mb feature.


Scottsvb was on here yesterday pointing out that is what's going to happen. He said Weds at the earliest for 93L and it would head into the Yucatan another feature was to develop behind and head NW, similar to what the CMC was showing yesterday. Seems reasonable looking at what's going on right now.
can we for get about the The John Hope rule are we be saying that with evere storm that comes a long too me its starting to get vary annyoing
3777. pottery
Quoting sailingallover:
Satellites don't think they just show..
There is no circulation, no COC,LCC nada..
Just an open wave...and with most of the convection heading north and getting sheared..

Agreed.
There are conflicting interpretations.........
3778. aquak9
thank you walshy :)

figured it was something like that- kman's explanation prefaced it, all makes good sense
AL, 93, 2010062212, , BEST, 0, 153N, 723W, 25, 1010, WV
3780. ssmate
Quoting StormW:
Just got looking at some things (Drak, jump on board here if you wish)...I remember, I think it was last year, we had a system that didn't appear to be under any shear, but there was some at around 700MB if I remember...could be one thing here, as if you look at the vorticity map, doesn't appear to be too vertically stacked.

Water vapor imagery indicates some slight presence of dry air to the east of the "center" also.

WV LOOP
Storm, I remember that situation because you explained to me that storms can sometimes be effected by 'invisible' shear. I knew then that I would never be able to understand hurricanes.
Quoting DestinJeff:


you might be looking at the 00Z .. the 6Z takes it further west and not anywhere near as strong
Link


Strength being the key.


Also.. the other portion of the ASCAT pass which covered the majority of the area of convection shows not much action on the east side of the system, either.
Quoting sailingallover:

Show me on what you see a COC?


On the visible it appears to be SE of Haiti and S of DR. 93L is getting more compact and not so broad compared to yesterday.
3784. aquak9
Quoting Tazmanian:
can we for get about the The John Hope rule are we be saying that with evere storm that comes a long too me its starting to get vary annyoing


"pin hole eye" gets annoying too, Taz, but I just wanted to know what it was. I won't be asking that question over and over and over and over like some people.


Also.. the other portion of the ASCAT pass which covered the majority of the area of convection shows not much action on the east side of the system, either.


Also.. the other portion of the ASCAT pass which covered the majority of the area of convection shows not much action on the east side of the system, either.
93L is looking really good right now on the visible. There is a coc.
3789. Drakoen
Quoting HurricaneFCast:


Also.. the other portion of the ASCAT pass which covered the majority of the area of convection shows not much action on the east side of the system, either.


That pass if from yesterday morning. If you look at the bottom of the image you will get the time the image was taken. 14:38UTC has not occured yet.
Wave still remains poorly organized with no surface developments just a well defind mid level rotation as of this morning. Development should be slow.
3791. pottery
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Most of the information I have found on the lack of cyclogenesis in the eastern carribean focuses on the low level jet. Several papers:

Variability of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet and its relations to climate

A Climatic Feature of the Tropical Americas: The Trade Wind Easterly Jet

Winter and Summer Structure of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet


AHhhhh!
Thanks. Will study those.....
Quoting Drakoen:


The descending pass comes out in the morning and has not loaded yet. Your image is showing the ascending pass.


Made that mistake yesterday, your correct ASCAT has yet to make its descending node pass. Also a little trivia, the reason they call it 'ascending' and 'descending' is because of ASCATs orbital track. Here's the orbital track of space shuttle Discovery on STS-121



When it goes uphill on the track, its called the 'ascending' node, whenever its on the 'descending' track its called the descending node.

Sorry for the off topic.
93L is starting too look for good now
Looks like my computer lagged.. Apologize for the double post all.
Quoting hurricane23:
Wave still remains poorly organized with no surface developments just a well defind mid level rotation as of this morning. Development should be slow.


Maybe that is what i am seeing is a mid level circulation. Visible presentation does look good though and we could have this a the surface later today.
3797. pottery
Quoting Drakoen:


That pass if from yesterday morning. If you look at the bottom of the image you will get the time the image was taken. 14:38UTC has not occured yet.

I see June 22 1200 UTC...
??
Quoting IKE:
Latest NOGAPS takes it into the Yucatan peninsula.


No way Circulation is further north and moving WNW.
Met Service of Jamaica

June 22, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Tropical Wave west of Jamaica.

Comment
The Tropical Wave west of Jamaica will move toward the west, farther away from the island. Another Tropical will be just east of Jamaica late this evening.


TODAY'S FORECAST
This Morning… Isolated showers mainly across sections of eastern parishes. Partly cloudy elsewhere.

This Afternoon… Scattered showers and thunderstorms across most parishes.

Tonight… Lingering showers across northern parishes. Partly cloudy elsewhere.


3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Wed/Thurs… Periods of showers and thunderstorm across the island.
Fri… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over central and western parishes.

Regionally… Trough and Tropical Waves over the central Caribbean will continue to generate unstable weather conditions across the region.

rlb
3800. Drakoen
Quoting pottery:

I see June 22 1200 UTC...
??


Look at the bottom of the image that is the time the pass was taken.
Watching a tropical cyclone try to develop is frustrating. It's much more fun to track after it has developed!
Quoting pottery:

This is what I am questioning.
Can the shear-maps be wrong??
When I look at the loops, I see something that makes me think that the system is being stressed from winds.
Having said that (and accepting that I am lacking in experience here), I find it strange that the area all over the East Carib and extending into the Atl east of Trinidad has lost so much moisture overnight.
Supposed to build during DMax.........not shrink??


Shear maps and forecasts a like any other and prone to change and error. When you see the higher cloud tops getting pushed off in one direction pretty sure sign of shear. Shear is easy to spot on Sat pics because it is the top layer feature. Yesterday evening some of93L's convection moved north and got sheared into what is now the big streamer of clouds comming out the North side of the DR and going to the NE out into the atlantic.
Quoting CaneWarning:
Watching a tropical cyclone try to develop is frustrating. It's much more fun to track after it has developed!


Right now it is just a guessing game.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Maybe that is what i am seeing is a mid level circulation. Visible presentation does look good though and we could have this a the surface later today.


Models right now aren't doing much of anything with this disturbance.
3806. Crawls
Quoting 7544:
wow could this be right 2 states get hit at once lol

Link


Lets hope not. Not a pretty sight!
Quoting DestinJeff:


you got that right! but then day after day, here we are.


I am a WU addict.
3808. Drakoen
Whether or not 93L goes over the Yucatan or moves through the channel depends on how strong it becomes once it gets pass Jamaica. A stronger system will tend to go more poleward and feel the affects of the trough going through the Channel or even western Cuba.
22/1145 UTC 15.5N 70.1W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic
3810. Walshy
Quoting hurricane23:


Models right now aren't doing much of anything with this disturbance.



???
Guys, you are gonna love this one...8:30am radio newscast for local station..."There is a tropical disturbance in the East Carribean that National Weather Service says could intensify over the next 48 hours as it moves TOWARDS MEXICO."
Welcome to Florida weather casting for the tourists. I know a couple of runs on the 2am models showed it going towards the Yucatan, but a couple recurved it back towards Florida. With this kind of weather reporting, no wonder so many in Florida get caught at the last minute unprepared.
3812. RJT185
Quoting hurricane23:


Models right now aren't doing much of anything with this disturbance.



There's not much to work with, the potential is brimming and unprecedented, but the actual ingredients aren't mixing.
3813. pottery
Quoting Drakoen:


Look at the bottom of the image that is the time the pass was taken.

Got it.
3814. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:


Models right now aren't doing much of anything with this disturbance.


Yes they are. Just not as quickly as some would like... lol
Good Morning everyone from SWLA...:) Good Morning Storm :) good to see ya! :) Waitin for this thing to develop is like pulling yer hair out! lol !!
3816. pottery
Quoting sailingallover:


Shear maps and forecasts a like any other and prone to change and error. When you see the higher cloud tops getting pushed off in one direction pretty sure sign of shear. Shear is easy to spot on Sat pics because it is the top layer feature. Yesterday evening some of93L's convection moved north and got sheared into what is now the big streamer of clouds comming out the North side of the DR and going to the NE out into the atlantic.

Ah! But your interpretation of that is contrary to what Kman and StormW have recently explained.
I am thinking like you, but dont have the expertise to justify it.
Interesting stuff..........
Quoting Jeff9641:


On the visible it appears to be SE of Haiti and S of DR. 93L is getting more compact and not so broad compared to yesterday.

There appears to be a spot with no convection
but what point do you actually see clouds at the SAME level in the atmosphere rotating around and what is the approximate diameter of that rotation? A circulation is a circle after all..
Larger, northern MCS is about to clobber DR and Haiti.
3819. GetReal
3820. cg2916
There is no COC because there is no LLC.
3822. Drakoen
The bipolarity in the models represents the various potential solutions that could occur in what is right now a complex and ambiguous situation.
How fast is 93L moving?
3824. cg2916
Quoting DestinJeff:
Due south of the DR / Haiti border I see what looks like a spin ... don't know about low level, but there is an appearance there of a spin.



Don't see it.
3825. cg2916
Quoting saintsfan06:
How fast is 93L moving?


About 10 MPH.
There is no surface circulation, but as of 5am, there continues to be a clearly defined Upper-level Circulation, about 100-350MB. Not quite mid-level.
3827. RJT185
Quoting cg2916:


Don't see it.


Ditto.
Has the model consensus changed in the last 24 hours? Looks about the same with maybe one or two going more Central GOM. Which ones show a path toward Florida?
Uh...according to the wind overlay graphic, the upper level circulation is anti-cyclonic, which supports development.
3831. Drakoen
Quoting HurricaneFCast:
There is no surface circulation, but as of 5am, there continues to be a clearly defined Upper-level Circulation, about 100-350MB. Not quite mid-level.

No, the flow aloft is anticyclonic
I see the feature you are talking about. It could be a little spin starting to develope or maybe just expansion.



Quoting DestinJeff:
Due south of the DR / Haiti border I see what looks like a spin ... don't know about low level, but there is an appearance there of a spin.

3834. cg2916
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Has the model consensus changed in the last 24 hours? Looks about the same with maybe one or two going more Central GOM. Which ones show a path toward Florida?


Quoting aquak9:
could someone give me a brief synopsis of the John Hope Rule?


me too. did you find out?
3836. bjdsrq
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes they are. Just not as quickly as some would like... lol


No doubt. A society entitled to instant gratification and being raised by a TV and Xbox, people get impatient when their storms don't develop within 24 hours of being called an 'invest'.
Quoting RJT185:



There's not much to work with, the potential is brimming and unprecedented, but the actual ingredients aren't mixing.


Thats correct with an UL anticyclone centered on top of it and deep sst's this thing should take advantage in time. Latest 12z ships run still indicates the possibility this will become a hurricane.
Quoting sailingallover:

There appears to be a spot with no convection
but what point do you actually see clouds at the SAME level in the atmosphere rotating around and what is the approximate diameter of that rotation? A circulation is a circle after all..
probably a big eye
3839. RJT185
Does anyone have the overlay of the strenght models?
22/1145 UTC 15.5N 70.1W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic
Quoting twhcracker:


me too. did you find out?


If it doesn't develop by the time it reaches the Eastern Caribbean, it wont do so until it reaches the Western.
Quoting Drakoen:


No, the flow aloft is anticyclonic

Its circulation is quite broad.. The anticyclone is rather small and center beneath Hispaniola, but it's circulation extends beyond that.. It does need to condense, however.
3843. IKE
Quoting cg2916:




Center looks slightly further north then those models start from.
3844. aquak9
Quoting Walshy:


The John Hope rule. If it hasn't developed by the time it gets in the eastern Caribbean, it won't until it reaches the western Caribbean.


here ya go, twh.
Good Morning here are the lastest 93L mode runs

3846. IKE
Quoting IKE:


Center looks slightly further north then those models start from.


Actually...maybe slightly further east too.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Good Morning here are the lastest 93L mode runs



Houston, we have a problem...
Quoting cg2916:


Quoting hurricanejunky:
Has the model consensus changed in the last 24 hours? Looks about the same with maybe one or two going more Central GOM. Which ones show a path toward Florida?


Looks like the Fl Peninsula is in the clear with this system. The western panhandle all the way to Texas should be concerned.
its right here

Quoting Tazmanian:
22/1145 UTC 15.5N 70.1W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic
Yeah, ships is still calling for 91kts over water at 120 hours, which is 104mph.
3851. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
its right here



That's about where I see it.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Looks like the Fl Peninsula is in the clear with this system. The western panhandle all the way to Texas should be concerned.


I wouldn't exactly say we are in the clear...those tracks would bring oil to our beaches.
3853. Delsol
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
looks like at least a 3000 post blog by tomorrow morning... Unless the Doc updates later today


Here's one predcition f rom yesterday which has been exceeded.
The system seems to spiral bands.
3855. 7544
Quoting CaneWarning:


I wouldn't exactly say we are in the clear...those tracks would bring oil to our beaches.


models will be changing each run even they are confused lol imo it will shift further to the east waiting
3856. RJT185
oy! i hate checking this blog from work, half the images get blocked by our proxies, tre' annyoing. lol
3857. Crawls
I hope Dr. M has an update soon. I can only imagine the # of posts if/when 93L makes it's mind up as to what it's going to do!!!
3858. Drakoen
Another day watching paint dry
CMC begins to develop 93L in 60 hours.
CMC develops a system off Cuba in 102 hours.
Both systems under go the infamous Fujiwhara effect, also both are at least a strong TS at peak.

GFDL now makes 93L a 50 knot TS at peak.
GFS continues to not develop 93L
HWRF is similar to GFDL in intensity.
IIRC ECMWF and NOGAPS develops 93L still

Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Guys, you are gonna love this one...8:30am radio newscast for local station..."There is a tropical disturbance in the East Carribean that National Weather Service says could intensify over the next 48 hours as it moves TOWARDS MEXICO."
Welcome to Florida weather casting for the tourists. I know a couple of runs on the 2am models showed it going towards the Yucatan, but a couple recurved it back towards Florida. With this kind of weather reporting, no wonder so many in Florida get caught at the last minute unprepared.


Where in FL do you live? I am in Ft Lauderdale and none of the news stations have even made mention on the path of this system.
Only commenting on how starting late tomorrow and Thursday we will get rain.
I find the weather forecasters down here pretty conservative with storm predictions.
Quoting Drakoen:
Another day watching paint dry


..This is any different from the last 4 years how? lol.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I wouldn't exactly say we are in the clear...those tracks would bring oil to our beaches.


Yes the current tracks would mostly increase the chances of oil getting into the Panhandle beaches. The peninsula should still be in the clear. We would need a strong NW wind to get oil here on the west coast.
3863. Drakoen
3864. pottery
Quoting CybrTeddy:
CMC begins to develop 93L in 60 hours.
CMC develops a system off Cuba in 102 hours.
Both systems under go the infamous Fujiwhara effect, also both are at least a strong TS at peak.

GFDL now makes 93L a 50 knot TS at peak.
GFS continues to not develop 93L
HWRF is similar to GFDL in intensity.
IIRC ECMWF and NOGAPS develops 93L still


LOL!!
And with that in mind, I am off to work>>>>>>>>>
take all the model runs being done and throw them out with the garbage. there is no coc with 93l as there is no circulation. there is no llc with 93l either. until the models hahve something to intialize on they are flawed and cannot be believed. 93l has no circulation. it is a stationary tropical wave at this time. it is showing some convection but it is not even close to spinning up.
Quoting pottery:

LOL!!
And with that in mind, I am off to work>>>>>>>>>


Lol.. insanity aint it?
3867. RJT185
thank you!!!!!
3870. pottery
Quoting GreenMe2225:
take all the model runs being done and throw them out with the garbage. there is no coc with 93l as there is no circulation. there is no llc with 93l either. until the models hahve something to intialize on they are flawed and cannot be believed. 93l has no circulation. it is a stationary tropical wave at this time. it is showing some convection but it is not even close to spinning up.

Interesting!
Frustrating? Not to me, I love it so..........

Later all.
Quoting Delsol:


Here's one predcition f rom yesterday which has been exceeded.


I was erroring on the conservative side LOL
Until there is a well defined center, the intensity & track is anyone's guess. The models are flipping back and forth on every run in both those areas. Still no position from the TPC


Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
No Current Positions

3873. 7544
testing
Blog Jam
3875. swlavp
Well, I have been lurking for years now, and so far this year with the 2 Invests we've had I have already seen all of the different "CASTERS" you can imagine mentioned...However, I figured I would Liven it up some and ask if this thing were to get to Major Hurricane strength (Unlikely I know), What are the chances of it being an "ANNULAR" Hurricane...HeHe.....LOL
And it's still a wave here

AL, 93, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 643W, 15, 1011, WV
AL, 93, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 127N, 654W, 20, 1011, WV
AL, 93, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 134N, 665W, 20, 1011, WV
AL, 93, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 140N, 676W, 20, 1011, WV
AL, 93, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 688W, 25, 1010, WV,
AL, 93, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 700W, 25, 1010, WV
AL, 93, 2010062206, , BEST, 0, 150N, 712W, 25, 1010, WV
AL, 93, 2010062212, , BEST, 0, 153N, 723W, 25, 1010, WV,
3877. IKE
I don't see how...at least part of 93L avoids Haiti. I've seen turtles walk faster then it's moving.
hey guys how many of you think this thing will actually develope or just be another 92L
Quoting helove2trac:
hey guys how many of you think this thing will actually develope or just be another 92L


93L has a much better chance of development than 92L and 92L got close. Most models are supporting 93L, and very good environmental conditions ahead of it. No reason why it cant other than the issue with the LLC.
It is currently lacking the vorticity and convergence that will allow it to create a low level circulation. Until more convergence starts occuring, no COC will form.
Various positions from the 12Z model cycle:


AL 93 201006221145 DVTS 1550N 7010W SAB LLCC DT=0.0 BO CBND MET=0.0 PT=0.0 FTBO DT PA=50 NMI
AL 93 201006221145 DVTS 1590N 7180W TAFB CSC NLINEMET= NA PAT= NA NLINE
AL 93 201006221200 ANAL 1525N 7240W CIRA CIRA Combined Multi-Platform Satellite Analysis

DVTS - subjective Dvorak

ANAL - analysis

CSC - cloud system center

LLCC - lower level cloud center
Morning everyone.....appears 93L is still poorly organized. LOOKS like its still a day or 2 away from developing if it ever does! Just looked at Visible and speeded it up....Looks like a surface low might be trying to pull together but, nothing truly apparent there yet. Maybe in 24hrs we will see a Surface Low develop as Vorticity shows mulitiple spins around a larger one. Cyclgenisis without strong localized 850mb Vorticity is always slow to develop! Just my thoughts for the mornging!



Is it possible to have 2 systems in the carribean one model is showing that am i correct?
So far Nuttin,
Quoting JugheadFL:
It is currently lacking the vorticity and convergence that will allow it to create a low level circulation. Until more convergence starts occuring, no COC will form.



Looking at CIMMS 93L is lacking a well defined circulation at all levels.
3888. Crawls
Question - Once organization takes place (in favorable conditions), won't a slow forward speed increase the odds of a major cane?
3889. IKE
Quoting helove2trac:
Is it possible to have 2 systems in the carribean one model is showing that am i correct?


Two? It's hard enough in 2010 to get one. I'm not complaining though.
I'm thinking the stronger 93L is after it passes jaimaca will determine when/if it turns north,pretty good model concensus conglomerating in the SEGOM area!!!
Quoting helove2trac:
Is it possible to have 2 systems in the carribean one model is
showing that am i correct?

Sure, it's possible.. Although, If the circulations are within 900 miles of each other and of TS intensity or greater, it's possible they'll experience fujiwhara.
there's a consensus in the models that the bermuda high backs off around sunday..opening the n gom.
93l will do no harm as long as it stays put. the longer it lingers means that citizens along some portion of an unknown coast will have some extra time to enjoy their property as it is.
THIS is the difference between a COC and a WAVE.




93L doesn't impress me.
vorticity over the antellies looks pretty impressive at 850mb...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
CMC begins to develop 93L in 60 hours.
CMC develops a system off Cuba in 102 hours.
Both systems under go the infamous Fujiwhara effect, also both are at least a strong TS at peak.

GFDL now makes 93L a 50 knot TS at peak.
GFS continues to not develop 93L
HWRF is similar to GFDL in intensity.
IIRC ECMWF and NOGAPS develops 93L still



Good analysis there CT...with that.....a concensus of models develop something! To the degree of that something is the uncertain. But, something will be forming one would have to conclude if you believe in models.
3899. IKE
12Z SHIPS aims it to the northern Yucatan, then the southern GOM/Bay of Campeche.
3900. 7544
Quoting CaneWarning:
93L doesn't impress me.


92l was more fun
When will Dr. M have the next blog update?

Thanks!
Tracey
Quoting sailingallover:
THIS is the difference between a COC and a WAVE.





That is not where the area of vorticity is. The yellow patch is south of Hispaniola and extends slightly south-eastward.
Yea IKE i know what you mean asking for 2 storms is a lot because we cant even get one LOL
3904. OneDrop
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Guys, you are gonna love this one...8:30am radio newscast for local station..."There is a tropical disturbance in the East Carribean that National Weather Service says could intensify over the next 48 hours as it moves TOWARDS MEXICO."
Welcome to Florida weather casting for the tourists. I know a couple of runs on the 2am models showed it going towards the Yucatan, but a couple recurved it back towards Florida. With this kind of weather reporting, no wonder so many in Florida get caught at the last minute unprepared.


I live in Deerfield Beach and I think they are morons just looking for a story. The news stations are monitoring it and not getting to hyped up about it. The fact is that until a LLC develops, the models are totally wishy washy. For Florida there are lots of obstacles to overcome but for the Gulf, it just has to make it through the Yucatan Channel but only time will tell.
Quoting IKE:
12Z SHIPS aims it to the northern Yucatan, then the southern GOM/Bay of Campeche.

The SHIPS is an intensity model.. It received its "track" forecast from BAMM.. Check just beneath "Heat Content" and above "Individual Contributions to Intensity Change"
3907. Drakoen
93L is slowly gaining spin as shown in the satellite loops, MIMIC-TPW, and a recent cimss 850mb vort product.
Jeff got a shout out in the St. Pete Times:

Link
Quoting stillwaiting:
vorticity over the antellies looks pretty impressive at 850mb...

Shows up on the ASCAT too, NOGAPS had it developing, and it had great convection...yesterday.
The ups and downs are really extreme so far this year.. one day it looks great the next where did it go...but this one has rotation and you can always get convection out of 30deg water....
3910. IKE
Quoting HurricaneFCast:

The SHIPS is an intensity model.. It received its "track" forecast from BAMM.. Check just beneath "Heat Content" and above "Individual Contributions to Intensity Change"


Shows it moving 11 mph....slowing down to 6 mph on the end of the 120 hour run. That might get it up here in about 3 weeks.

*considers an early morning bag of popcorn*
Quoting TampaSpin:


Good analysis there CT...with that.....a concensus of models develop something! To the degree of that something is the uncertain. But, something will be forming one would have to conclude if you believe in models.


No one in particular, but some people tend to when the models don't develop anything to say nothings going to happen (*cough* TWC *cough*) yet when a storm isn't all to organized like 93L is, those same people say its going to get killed by some magical and non-exist barrier of 100 knot shear and the models are totally wrong. Not referring to anyone on WU. Its all about what you see and what you read, I personally know that when the models are all so strong on developing a system chances are on it developing. 94L in 2008 that became Dolly was very similar to the way this system has played out so far.
Quoting Drakoen:
The bipolarity in the models represents the various potential solutions that could occur in what is right now a complex and ambiguous situation.



Say that 5 times fast! LOL!


And it took him about 3 hours to come up with the words for that one...
Quoting IKE:


Shows it moving 11 mph....slowing down to 6 mph on the end of the 120 hour run.

Yep, the heading, track, and speed are all borrowed from the BAMM.
3915. ssmate
I know we are tracking 93L but I found this interesting from Paul Douglas, a pioneer in new weather tracking technology:
During a wild 8 hour period last Thursday, The NWS counted a total of 17 tornadoes in MN including 3 rare EF-4 twisters, nearly a mile wide, winds over 175 mph. During an average year 1 to 2% of all tornadoes touching down on America are EF-4 or stronger.
Doppler radar has cut down the death toll, but it's not perfect. BTW, radar was developed in WWII to help the allies track ships & planes. Radar operators were plagued by interference, strange smudges that made it tougher to track their military targets. Those annoying blips turned out to be rain & snow - it quickly dawned on meteorologists that they had stumbled upon a new and revolutionary tool to track weather.
Quoting IKE:


Shows it moving 11 mph....slowing down to 6 mph on the end of the 120 hour run. That might get it up here in about 3 weeks.

*considers an early morning bag of popcorn*


You and your popcorn! How much salt are you gonna put on it today??? LOL
Oh, and gd morning Ike and Tampa. Ike has oil washed up on your beaches yet?
one thing is for sure and that is 93l is putting on another convection show today.

the show will be over at 2215 utc.

tomorrow's show will begin at 1015 utc.

if you like 93l, it will be here all week!
new blog!!!!!!!!!!!!!
3921. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Oh, and gd morning Ike and Tampa. Ike has oil washed up on your beaches yet?


Yes.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

That is not where the area of vorticity is. The yellow patch is south of Hispaniola and extends slightly south-eastward.

O Hispaniola is the DR and Hatia.. that big island at the top of the picture.
Yellow patch on what? An IR sat pic?
The Yellow patch on the ASCAT is cape effect winds.
NHC has the waves along 71-72 west which is all on the the pic I posted.
So I'm wondering what you are looking at
WAIT you mean this
The 850 Vorticity in the CIMSS pic
The "yellow" in that pic is right on top of the black line I drew showing the location of the wave at 70W
Quoting btwntx08:
new blog!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wait we are about to break 4000!! What's the record?
for June? For June 22? This should be being kept track of!!!!!!
Levi this is you wave that the gfs spawns up in 3 days
3925. nwcarib
3926. nwcarib
Wow...new update. Thx. Dr M.
I feel really weird now....i just refreshed and there was a new update...I swear!! And now there isn't.