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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

New blog organization effort

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:00 PM GMT on March 28, 2008

Well, today's blog marks my 921st blog since I began blogging in April of 2005. At long last, I've found time to organize my blogs by subject so we can easily find an old blog. This is now a permanent link at the right of my blog page under the "Previous Entries for 2008" section titled, "Complete Archive by Subject--new!" I've broken out my blogs on individual hurricanes and tropical storms for a particular year into their own index page; my busiest year was (duh!) 2005, when I wrote 251 blogs on the individual storms that occurred. My record for most blogs in a month is 68, set in September of 2005.

Greatest hits
I'm not sure how how each blog ranks in terms of number of readers, but below is a list of five blogs I spent the most time working on. These aren't necessarily the blogs I am proudest of. I am still trying to find the right balance between providing unbiased scientific facts and my personal opinions. For the most part, I feel my blogs are most valuable when I allow readers to draw their own conclusions based on the facts presented. For example, I say little on what efforts should be made to slow down global warming. I am not an expert in policy or economics. However, I do get very upset when I hear politicians and scientists lying or distorting the facts, and feel a strong need to speak up when that occurs. Many of the below blogs reflect that passion:

Climate Change: An analysis of Dr. Richard Lindzen's Wall Street Journal op-ed accusing climate scientists of alarmism: Climate of Fear.

Hurricanes: The appalling failure of our elected leaders to prevent the Katrina disaster: Katrina: an unnatural disaster.

Politics: The numbers former National Hurricane Center chief Bill Proenza used to justify replacement of the aging QuikSCAT satellite just didn't add up: Challenging Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT numbers.

Air Pollution: Which is worse--a Category 5 hurricane, or a major air pollution episode? Pick your poison.

Aviation: A flight I took into a hurricane strength 'Noreaster in 1989: Flying into a record 'Noreaster.

Humor: Well, the image of George W. Bush at the National Hurricane Center that appears as the image header for the humor section is from a blog I haven't posted yet. Tune in on Tuesday, April 1, to see a hurricane humor piece I put a rather ridiculous amount of effort into!

Thanks go to all of you who've contributed to the value of this blog by posting intelligent comments, and those who share their weather knowledge and experiences through their own blogs. I also want to thank the many Personal Weather Station owners who upload their data, and the wunderphotographers that share their pictures. I've linked a few of my favorites from past blogs below. I look forward to many more years of blogging!

Jeff Masters
Rainbow whale
Rainbow whale
Rainbow made From a sperm whale using his blowhole
Charlotte County, Florida tornado
Charlotte County, Florida tornado
Another image of the tornado, as it touched down in Punta Gorda, Florida

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

My wife said she felt a toad and it was cold, therefore it will be a bad hurricane season. haha No, i'm not making fun at people. there are many possibilities and while many are good to study some also seem to be conflicting to a degree that forecasting the upcoming season seems as murky as my wife touching a cold toad and forecasting the weather. She says next she will start disemboweling snakes to read the future but I think she is only kidding. That is to say, I hope she is only kidding.

Storm, thank you for the SLOSH site. I have bookmarked it. And I don't remember, sorry, the person who gave out the Metweather site but thank you for that as well.

There in lies the concern,although Katrina may have been a slightly weaker storm at Landfall in wind speed..She was still pushing a 28-30 ft Cat-5 Generated storm Surge.And the "Total Combined" catastrophic impact was beyond any Cat-5 Damage ever seen in the US.Mainland.Link
The Current Saffir-Simpson Scale dosent account for Size and overall impact from Surge.Which is always the main taker of lives.Many years and many Brighter minds will eventually devise a scale that can accurately reflect the impact, and not Just Wind,and pre-scale derived surge.....as the current Scale only does.
Larger storms build larger surges that last longer after they weaken. Ivan was a strong 3 but also had it's 5 surge as it hit NW Florida.

It looks like our rainy season may be kicking in early. We have a well developed seabreeze with thunderheads forming along it. With a southeast flow, Lake O may get some good rainfall today.
With Felix and Dean being so far south, upwelling is much less of a factor. The sun is much stronger and replaces lost heat much faster in the lower lattitudes.
Can somebody see if they can see an image on the cyclone tracker for Invest 92B (click on the little yellow "I" east of India on the map)? I'm trying to find out if it's a problem with my browser (I know the CIMSS tropics2 page isn't designed for IE6). All I'm seeing is a gray screen with the CIMSS logo where an overlay image should be.

CIMSS Tropics V2
Twenty-one tropical disturbances were reported this
year in the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the
southern portion of the Atlantic. This is the largest
number observed in any one season in 46 years of record.
Hitherto 16, in 1887, had been the greatest number;
since that time only 9 years have reported 10 or more.


This is the beginning of the 1933 summary of the hurricane season in the Weather Review Journal.

That year, like 2005 was notable in other ways besides sheer record-breaking numbers. One of the few hurricanes to hit Trinidad and Venezuela did so, in June, at that; it passed BETWEEN Trinidad and the S. American coast. The Chesapeake-Potomac area was hit by its worst hurricane prior to Isabel in 2003. Mexico was hit by 7 storms, 5 of them hurricanes, and the Bahamas was hit 6 times, including 4 hurricanes.

One interesting thing I noticed was that although six storms passed over at least one of the Bahamian islands, NO strikes on the Bahamas were listed. I guess we were just too much of the small fry back then . . .
I am seeing what looks like it should be an invest in the E-Pac. I know it's early though, but it has been there for a while now.
Good afternoon all.
Re: Baha's post # 506, interesting to note that 6 of those storms that formed just east of the Islands ( or were first noticed there ) , passed SOUTH of Puerto Rico.......
Also, some 5 storms that year ( 1933) passed over or close to the Cayman Islands.
Ivansrvivr - is this the one you're talking about? There's also another area further west.

yeah, TerraNova, I thought he was talking about the one near 120° . I have that one up on my blog... LOL I thought he was talking about that one :-)
It is probably still too early for anything in the East Pacific; the last two years had invests/storms in the Atlantic before the East Pacific. Although the water has been getting quite warm there. More than just quite warm in fact; somebody actually describes El Nino conditions off South America (El Nino makes the East Pacific more active, even to the point of having hurricanes in January, although currently the warm anomalies are only off South America, not the whole Pacific):

Equatorial SST anomalies from the Indian Ocean into the Pacific loosely exhibit a spatial pattern of cool-warm-cool with the warmth centered on Indonesia. Interestingly this pattern is roughly opposite to that seen during boreal fall 2006 (Indian Ocean dipole matters understood). Anomaly magnitudes are ~1-3C. The horseshoe distribution of warm SSTs into the extratropical North and South Pacific Oceans is as robust as "ever", while positive SST anomalies continue just west of South America (local El-Nino conditions) and portions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
actually sort of both but that one is over the warm sst anomalies. Could the E-Pac season be starting early?
what is anyones thoughts about hurricane season coming up
Any way to find out if 1933 was a la nina year?

Also, somewhere in that review I was looking at they were giving general conditions, month by month, along with locations of surface highs and lows. It would be interesting to see how the AB high was set up that year.

There sure was some funky steering going in on the latter part of the year, too.
STL made my point perfectly. I also believe that the warm SSTs in the extreme E-Pac are contributing to Florida's rainfall. Maybe through the midwest too. It is raining here now which is VERY unusual for late march or early april. Frontal rains usually end in Feb, while the rainy season begins in June. I am hoping maybe our rainy season is starting early.
Baha, 93 was neutral.

Heres the easy way to find any year
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
EPAC invest from these = 30% chance.
I wonder how many storms went unnoticed in 33. Shipping reports were inaccurate at best. The first two storms in 33 show that the A/B high was already in place by May. It is possible that there wern't any reporting stations on the Caymans or nobody survived to report the storms.
actually sort of both but that one is over the warm sst anomalies. Could the E-Pac season be starting early?

Honestly I'm not really familiar with the hurricane climatology in the Eastern Pacific; but according to Wikipedia the Pacific really doesn't see much action until mid may, the earliest (hurricane season in the EPAC starts on May 15).

This system doesn't really look like much and it's still too early for systems (invests, named storms) to start forming anywhere in the western hemisphere.
it gonna rain most of the week for fla
tomorrow early tuse only dry time
wed thu fri maybe early sat rain off and on for entire pens.
518. Ivansrvivr 6:03 PM GMT on March 30, 2008
Baha, 93 was neutral.

Heres the easy way to find any year
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml



1993 did have a warm bias however, and the SOI suggests that it was an El Nino year, stronger than 2006 (the SOI is probably more important as far as effects go since it is the atmospheric response of ENSO), I have also often seen it referred to as such as well; for example, in this paper on the 1993 flooding. Also, the SOI goes back to 1876, thus the state of ENSO before 1950 can be determined.
Keeper, that's good news. As I said, the overall weather pattern is exactly how our rainy season begins. I don't expect much from the current Pacific activity. It is interesting seeing waves look that impressive this early. I'm afraid alot of that moisture will be drawn northeast thru texas to places that don't need tropical moisture adding to flooding.
i say this every year the high is going to be what makes or breaks me lol
509. pottery 1:39 PM EDT on March 30, 2008
Also, some 5 storms that year ( 1933) passed over or close to the Cayman Islands.


Not surprising, given the tracks. I think there was hardly an island in the Caribbean that didn't experience the effects of at least one storm that year. What I found interesting about the Puerto Rican data is that none of the storm centres crossed her coasts. That's pretty unusual. I think the St. Kitts area had quite a few systems blow up there.
What I found interesting about the Puerto Rican data is that none of the storm centres crossed her coasts. That's pretty unusual.

Another strange oddity about another 'active year' (ROTFL) - 2005...

Puerto Rico didn't even come close to getting hit that year.

I guess when there's going to be 20+ storms Puerto Rico can count on not getting hit...lol
Baha, 93 was neutral.

Heres the easy way to find any year
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml


Thanks, I knew that. However, it does seem I don't know the difference between a 9 and a 3 . . .

That's why I place much more importance on steering patterns than number of named storms. I recall the Carolinas getting hit 2 or 3 times in seasons that weren't "active" as numbers go.
However, it does seem I don't know the difference between a 9 and a 3 . . .

If you meant 1933, the link I gave in my previous post enables you to determine the state of ENSO before 1950 (1933 appears to have been a La Nina year, but not as strong as now). The SOI doesn't always match though, for example, 1993 was a strong El Nino year going by the SOI but only warm neutral by the SSTs (perhaps because of Pinatubo's cooling effects).
520. Ivansrvivr 2:17 PM EDT on March 30, 2008
I wonder how many storms went unnoticed in 33. Shipping reports were inaccurate at best. The first two storms in 33 show that the A/B high was already in place by May. It is possible that there wern't any reporting stations on the Caymans or nobody survived to report the storms.


Several of the reports I read made mention of the paucity of reports from the "black hole" (I'd place it at approximately 20 - 40 W, 10 - 30 N) of the ATL basin. Along the African coast they could potentially get reports; once storms got closer to the shipping lanes in and out of the Caribbean ships would often encounter them. I think 1933 could easily have equalled 2005 in absolute numbers, if only we could see into that black hole . . .

I also think it was enough like last year, when the storms that made it to hurricane status didn't "rev up" until they got closer to or through the Lesser Antilles. Only a couple of them seem like CV storms; the one that hit Virginia is one of them.

There were people on the Caymans and reports from there regarding the severity of storms experienced. I'm not sure if it was in 1932 or 33 when a lot of people got washed off Cayman Brac . . . Reports from the smaller islands were minimal, however.
530. MichaelSTL 3:35 PM EDT on March 30, 2008
If you meant 1933, the link I gave in my previous post enables you to determine the state of ENSO before 1950 . . .


STL, How did u get to 1933? I had used this page before for post 1950 ENSO info, but I don't see the pre-1950 info you refer to.
33 had a well developed high early, but it didn't stay in same position. (the pattern of storm tracks almost suggest that it may have split, with 1 over the northern GOM, one near Bermuda. The Bermuda high or side seems to have moved alot, the GOM side remained locked in & pushed anything that got under it westward thru most of the season. The October storm that usually hits Florida was much farther east. this is just a guess that is derived from a very quick glance at the '33 storm tracks. I still wonder how many were missed that year. It was a very unusual year from a steering current standpoint.
527. sullivanweather 3:22 PM EDT on March 30, 2008
2005...

Puerto Rico didn't even come close to getting hit that year.


Actually, considering we were right in the middle of things, we had very little disruption in 2005. Rita and Katrina started in our waters but accelerated out of them before they got organized; just about every other major storm started well to our south and went west. In fact, only Wilma recurved sufficiently to bring hurricane force winds to the extreme western tip of the Bahamas.

I guess this supports Ivan's view that it's not the numbers, it's the steering . ..
check out Mia. radar. 2 defined seabreeze fronts over the FL Peninsula. that is unusual during summer, i cant remember ever seeing that in April.
Baja, if I remember correctly the sahara dust was just strong enough to impede development of Katrina and Rita until they went wnw into the Bahamas.
533. Ivansrvivr 3:46 PM EDT on March 30, 2008
33 had a well developed high early, but it didn't stay in same position. (the pattern of storm tracks almost suggest that it may have split, with 1 over the northern GOM, one near Bermuda. The Bermuda high or side seems to have moved alot, the GOM side remained locked in & pushed anything that got under it westward thru most of the season. The October storm that usually hits Florida was much farther east. this is just a guess that is derived from a very quick glance at the '33 storm tracks. I still wonder how many were missed that year. It was a very unusual year from a steering current standpoint.


There's actually a fair amount of information about the location of highs and lows during 1933 in the AMS Monthly Weather Review Journal for that year. The charts are there at the end of each month, and there is a general description of the weather for that month as well.
STL, How did u get to 1933? I had used this page before for post 1950 ENSO info, but I don't see the pre-1950 info you refer to.

Are you looking at this link?

S.O.I. (Southern Oscillation Index) Archives - 1876 to present
That was merely a guess based on a quick look at the storm tracks. Not meant to taken very seriously.
536. Ivansrvivr 3:58 PM EDT on March 30, 2008
Baja, if I remember correctly the sahara dust was just strong enough to impede development of Katrina and Rita until they went wnw into the Bahamas.


I think something similar may have been happening in '33. Very little seemed to come into the Caribbean already fledged; a lot of it came together west of 60W (i. e. reports show strengthening as the storms moved west from there). San Ciricao in 1928, by comparison, was already near or at cat 5 when it hit Puerto Rico.

There didn't seem to be much understanding of the role the ULL was playing in inhibiting or enhancing TC development.
539. Ivansrvivr 4:06 PM EDT on March 30, 2008
That was merely a guess based on a quick look at the storm tracks. Not meant to taken very seriously.


It's actually not a bad hypothesis. I'd guess the secondary high would have had to have been over the SE US with height over GA, maybe, since storm tracks seem to diverge just around the western tip of Cuba / over the W. Bahamas. When the highs were bridged, the storms kept going west; when they weren't, storms recurved along the east coast.
Thanks STL. I added the link to my ENSO info bank.
Anyone like to sport a guess as to the nature of years steering currents?

a. Small Bermuda High combined with east coast trough recurves storms before they reach North America, like 2006

b. Enourmous, southern ridges force major storms into Latin America, ala 2007

c. Steering currents point canes right at North America. such as in '04 + '05

d. something completely different
this years steering currents, sorry
Mesoscale discussion 504 concerning severe weather potential across Western Oklahoma has just been issued.

Cape is exceeding 1500 and dewpoints are in the upper 50s to mid 60s in most of Oklahoma. Instability is on the increase.

Supercell development appears to be imminent...

This is from June 1933

In fact the most remarkable feature of the month's weather on the Atlantic was the persistent and quite intense character of the Atlantic HIGH, which maintained uninterrupted dominance over the region between the Azores and Africa, and frequently extended its influence to high latitudes.

From July, re. the storm that hit Trinidad and Venezuela:

By the morning of the 4th a strong area of
high pressure, that spread southward from Hudson Bay over the eastern part of the United States, blocked the northward progress of this disturbance and deflected it toward the west.



And you have to look at this map from the 4th of July that year, and this one for the end of July 1933. No wonder the storms kept going west . . .

Terra, I've been looking at that spot on the satellite all afternoon and wondering.. . . is it heading off to the north, or more likely to come across GA?
Uhhh... is this accurate??Link Its showing over 17in of rain.
Terra, I've been looking at that spot on the satellite all afternoon and wondering.. . . is it heading off to the north, or more likely to come across GA?

You mean the general threat? After today it'll move to the east and expand in threat. Tomorrow there looks to be a larger event in the making (with most of the central portion of the country under a slight risk). After that it looks like the left over energy will move into the northeast; with the possibility of severe weather over parts on Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

Stormchaser2007 - I don't think its 17 inches of rain...my radar display is showing about 10 inches of total rainfall; which seems accurate considering that a couple of hours ago the NWS stated that up to 6 more inches of rain could fall over the already accumulated 3-4 inches.
c. but not exclusive to Fl. My guess is favoring the Carolinas and the Central GOM Fl could get one headed either way.
I just searched the SSD site, looking at satellite images (The SSTs in the Central Atlantic are really cool (The highest temp is 27C, that's just above the required standard, for a Tropical storm to form)...
It's March, La Nina has increased tradewinds. La Nina is fading fast. The Atl will change quickly.
Very fine, JFV and you?
Hi JFV
I've been reading the old posts from a year ago...and it is very similar to recent posts...many, many predictions for a busy season and many predictions for a Fla., Gulfcoast landfalling storm. Just shows you..way to soon to tell how things will pan out.
What's up with all the tornado warnings in Louisiana - and no watch?

Some tornadoes on the ground in South/Central LA this evening.....
563. MichaelSTL 7:38 PM EDT on March 30, 2008
What's up with all the tornado warnings in Louisiana - and no watch?


I've been out all day, just logged on, and was also surpised to see this weather over there....Some damage reports already at a trailer park and don't know if anyone saw this coming......It was not predicted on the SPC convective outlooks either....
The SPC issued a mesoscale discussion for that area several hours ago, but said nothing about tornadoes and only isolated severe weather (hail) was expected; they did mention rotating storms though (apparantly they become surface-based, allowing the rotation to reach the ground and produce tornadoes, they still haven't issued a watch though):

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302054Z - 302300Z

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES...AND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED...
BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NEAR A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 JET
CORE ACROSS THE SABINE VALLEY. DESPITE A TREND TOWARD WARMING
ASSOCIATED WITH VEERING OF MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW TOWARD A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT...INCREASING INHIBITION HAS OBVIOUSLY NOT BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST
TO THIS POINT. AS LONG AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST...SIZABLE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND
PROVIDE A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CELLS
MANAGING TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL REMAIN BASED JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

OTHERWISE...THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
CONFINED TO SABINE COUNTY TEXAS/SABINE PARISH LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT
AREAS. THIS IS WHERE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED...NEAR AN ILL-DEFINED SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
VORTEX.
Sorry for the mistake below.....SPC convective outlook for today did put the area in the "slight risk" category for this afternoon/evening....Guess the event materilized with this line of storms (related to the location of the Southern Jetstream).....
Here it is; guess the current situation materilized pretty quickly before they could issue a watch......

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN OK...MUCH OF KS...AND INTO PARTS OF SERN NEB...SRN IA...AND NRN AND WRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX/WRN LA...

...
Meanwhile, there are some big storms developing in Oklahoma, where there is a tornado watch (up to 3 inch hail also expected):



C0 Washita OK 74 dBZ 42,000 ft. 70 kg/m² 100% 100% 2.50 in. 25 knots SW (232)
C0 Beckham OK 69 dBZ 41,000 ft. 59 kg/m² 100% 100% 3.75 in. 27 knots SW (231)
E0 Beckham OK 68 dBZ 47,000 ft. 74 kg/m² 100% 100% 3.50 in. 12 knots SSW (213
Storm Reports - Last 3 Hours

Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2006 UNK PROVENCAL NATCHITOCHES LA 3165 9320

POSSIBLE TORNADO IN PROVENCAL. TRAILER PARK HIT WITH MANY ROOFS TORN OFF. NUMEROUS INJURIES REPORTED. NWS STORM SURVEY WILL BE CONDUCTED ON MONDAY. (SHV)
There aren't any tornado warnings for the Oklahoma storms yet, although they have this, among other warnings:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN GREER...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KIOWA...WESTERN WASHITA
AND EASTERN BECKHAM COUNTIES...

AT 650 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR RETROP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS
STORM IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BURNS FLAT...CANUTE...DILL CITY
AND RETROP.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND WINDS OF 75 MPH ARE LIKELY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WHICH MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE TO
PROPERTY. TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Hey, guys long time since I've been on here. The storms are looking bad, I've been looking all day at the outlooks, and waiting for the first storms to develop.
Well.....Gotta get back to the kids...Hope the weather dies down in OK and LA.....See Yall Tommorow
Hey nova what radar software are you using??
Hey nova what radar software are you using??

GRLevel3
It looks like the southern storm is beginning to develop a tornado signature. A hook echo looks to be forming just west of Rocky Oklahoma.
Alright thanks for that... God I hope these people stay safe.
I hope things don't get any worse tonight, part of the short term forecast.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-310100-
ALFALFA-ARCHER-ATOKA-BAYLOR-BECKHAM-BLAINE-BRYAN-CADDO-CANADIAN-
CARTER-CLAY-CLEVELAND-COAL-COMANCHE-COTTON-CUSTER-DEWEY-ELLIS-FOARD-
GARFIELD-GARVIN-GRADY-GRANT-GREER-HARDEMAN-HARMON-HARPER-HUGHES-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSTON-KAY-KINGFISHER-KIOWA-KNOX-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LOVE-MAJOR-MARSHALL-MCCLAIN-MURRAY-NOBLE-OKLAHOMA-PAYNE-PONTOTOC-
POTTAWATOMIE-ROGER MILLS-SEMINOLE-STEPHENS-TILLMAN-WASHITA-WICHITA-
WILBARGER-WOODS-WOODWARD-
638 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

.NOW...
...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM
OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LARGE HAIL... POSSIBLY LARGER THAN
GOLFBALLS... WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
Whoa, Terra its looking scary out there.
Heres a look at the SST anomalies of Africa. Notice how the waters of the African coast and around the Cape Verde Islands are above their climatological average. With these water temps in place the tropical waves the come of the African coast will have an easier time adapting to their water source opposed to the relatively hotter land.


The problem is the MDR region, particularly west of 45W in the central Atlantic. We can see that the water here are .5-1.0 degrees Celsius below average. We still have 2 months before the season starts but we will have to looking into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico temps to be able to sustain a tropical cyclone.
With the Bermuda High staying strong through the season, the cooler water is tradewind driven upwelling. Now the tradewinds will push that pool of warm water westward across the Central Atl.
583. Ivansrvivr 1:18 AM GMT on March 31, 2008
With the Bermuda High staying strong through the season, the cooler water is tradewind driven upwelling. Now the tradewinds will push that pool of warm water westward across the Central Atl.


Yea. I'm still waiting for Reynolds to update. They do a good job with the isotherm lines.
576. TerraNova 12:26 AM GMT on March 31, 2008 Hide this comment.
Hey nova what radar software are you using??

GRLevel3


I wish it wasnt so expensive. Its some great software especially for novice weather watchers.
586. beell
Man, those OK storms would be awesome from 5-10 miles away. Fairly open country. Somebody ought to have a good chance to snag one of those cool lightning-lit cells.

8PM CDT SPC Day 1
i just have a feeling that the bermuda high is going to screw me over.
Haha what part of the country are you located at?
port st lucie , florida
Ouch:

N0 Blaine OK 70 dBZ 43,000 ft. 68 kg/m² 100% 100% 4.00 in. 32 knots SSW (209)


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN MAJOR AND NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTIES...

AT 830 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HITCHCOCK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AMES...CANTON...CLEO SPRINGS...
FAIRVIEW...HITCHCOCK...HOMESTEAD...ISABELLA...LONGDALE...OKEENE...
ORIENTA...SOUTHARD AND SOUTHEASTERN CANTON LAKE.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.
Oh wow i have a place in West Palm. Well then we better pray the Bermuda high saves us rather than destroys us.
ya chaser we better pray lol
stormshaser2007, I live in WPB :-)

I want nothing like 2004
Man in 2004 I had to pay almost $20,000 in cleanup and restoration to my house and yard. Ugh makes me sick just thinking about it.
Good night all,

I just want to say there is no excuse for my behaviour yesterday and I just wanted to aoplogizze for it to both Drakeon and for the rest fellow bloggers. I pray that it wont happen again and that I intend to make peace and respect anyone no matter the future circumstances.
TVS with storm CO in central Oklahoma.
The southern most storm now has a TVS marked by NEXRAD. It's been trying to develop a hook echo for the past hour or so. Those three storms are clustered tightly together and all three have shown signs of rotation. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of these spawn a funnel before the event is over.
I was in Pensacola in 04. The only place that got it worse than us was maybe Punta Gorda. Be glad you got Fran and Jeanne instead of Ivan.
2008 will be interesting. 2006 and 2007 were both weird in some ways.
The one that killed me...
ivan i am very thankful i didnt get ivan

i was in the eye for 6 hrs
Back in 99 I was visiting my parents in NJ and while I was over they had Floyd come through and ill tell ya that that thing was just as bad that would come through here.
06 & 07 reminded me of the story of the 3 bears. 06 was too cold(Storm track as way north and east), 07 was too hot(storm track was south and west), 08 may be just right.(in the middle?) That's not good. Forget that analogy.
Its all about that BH...
I toured S.Fl in December 04 to see how bad it was. It wasn't even close to Ivan in the Panhandle. not even in the same ballpark.
I can't wait to do my June outlook...
it seems like we are i a trend of two yrs its bad for the us and and then the next two years are a quiet one
We had 60 mph winds from Floyd as it passed to the east here. Floyd and Hugo were similar to Ivan in size and strength. Ivan was so large. That made it much worse b/c of duration.
According to haha this year were in for it.
Drak whens your outlook??
611. Stormchaser2007 1:57 AM GMT on March 31, 2008
Drak whens your outlook??


Late May/early June. I need to get some model projections on the steering pattern and the upper level winds.
I already did an early one. I don't like how patterns are setting up. la Nina is fading. A/B high is already well established. SOI is falling. Shear is dropping in the ATL. I don't expect an early start, but I will be surprised if our 2yr break in S.E. CONUS landfalls continues this year.
I don't know if its worth my time doing a seasonal outlook. I will see...
I just did mine as a shot in the dark. it's just a guess like all the others.
just like every year the bh is always the key factor for a florida hit imho
Actually Haha its not your humble opinion its the cold hard truth with every season.
Ill take a shot at some predictions.
are the sst's supposed to be above average this year?

We all have different experiences with the Cane. Some from a different perspective/location from within the same storm.
All the stories we hear add to the collective history of the Hurricane in our lives.
Thanks for sharing everyone.
Well SSTs off Africa currently are. Hey also just completed my first entry in a year so i hope some you could check it out and leave a comment. Well gotta go. {:>) c ya
sure jfv more than enough room lol
Sure JFV but im heading out... good night Pat, Haha, and JFV.
Having experienced multiple 'canes. I know that no 2 are alike. They are as unique as snowflakes.
GOM 120 Hour SSt Model from WAVCIS Link
No its actually Felix at 929mbs and 175mph.... good guess though.
I have only a few canes under my belt and I dont think I can fit anymore.(mentally)
Not trying to intrude or anything but JFV may I ask how old you are??
Check out the rain in Texas and Louisiana:



Not surprisingly, up to record flooding has occurred:



...OBSERVED FLOODING INCREASED FROM MAJOR TO RECORD SEVERITY...
...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MAJOR TO RECORD SEVERITY...

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AYISH BAYOU NEAR SAN AUGUSTINE.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:30 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.2 FEET.
* RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 19 FEET BY MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE AFTERWARD.
Coping after a Hurricane..

Everyone who sees or experiences a hurricane is affected by it in some way. It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends. Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event. Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover. Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal. Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy. Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping. It is common to want to strike back at people who have caused great pain. Children and older adults are of special concern in the aftermath of disasters. Even individuals who experience a disaster second hand through exposure to extensive media coverage can be affected.



Mental Health

The days and weeks after a hurricane are going to be rough. In addition to your physical health, you need to take some time to consider your mental health as well. Remember that some sleeplessness, anxiety, anger, hyperactivity, mild depression, or lethargy are normal, and may go away with time. If you feel any of these symptoms acutely, seek counseling. Remember that children need extra care and attention before, during, and after the storm. Be sure to locate a favorite toy or game for your child before the storm arrives to help maintain his/her sense of security. Your state and local health departments will help you find the local resources, including hospitals or health care providers, that you may need.
Storm CO in Central Oklahoma has strong rotation with extremely evident hook. Oh also it has a Tornado Warning.Link
oh yes patrap. the traumatic events from a hurricane can really damage your mental health
there were 14 suicides in Pensacola after Ivan (so I read)
No reason Ive noticed that your extremely polite on here thats all. Good night all and stay safe.
Contact local faith-based organizations, voluntary agencies, or professional counselors for counseling. Additionally, FEMA and state and local governments of the affected area may provide crisis counseling assistance.

Minimize this emotional and traumatic experience by being prepared, not scared and therefore you and your family will stay in control and survive a major hurricane.

SIGNS OF HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Difficulty communicating thoughts.
* Difficulty sleeping.
* Difficulty maintaining balance in their lives.
* Low threshold of frustration.
* Increased use of drugs/alcohol.
* Limited attention span.
* Poor work performance.
* Headaches/stomach problems.
* Tunnel vision/muffled hearing.
* Colds or flu-like symptoms.
* Disorientation or confusion.
* Difficulty concentrating.
* Reluctance to leave home.
* Depression, sadness.
* Feelings of hopelessness.
* Mood-swings and easy bouts of crying.
* Overwhelming guilt and self-doubt.
* Fear of crowds, strangers, or being alone.

EASING HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Talk with someone about your feelings - anger, sorrow, and other emotions - even though it may be difficult.
* Seek help from professional counselors who deal with post-disaster stress.
* Do not hold yourself responsible for the disastrous event or be frustrated because you feel you cannot help directly in the rescue work.
* Take steps to promote your own physical and emotional healing by healthy eating, rest, exercise, relaxation, and meditation.
* Maintain a normal family and daily routine, limiting demanding responsibilities on yourself and your family.
* Spend time with family and friends.
* Participate in memorials.
* Use existing support groups of family, friends, and religious institutions.
* Ensure you are ready for future events by restocking your disaster supplies kits and updating your family disaster plans
i remember after frances and jeane i was so messed up i fell in to a slight depression for about a month. also that is why i consider jfv a friend beacuse he is always very polite.
The storm itself doesn't bother me. It's the aftermath that I dread. the cleanup process is more dangerous than the storm.
In Wilma I lost both my dogs of 7 years and to boot most my house was flooded. I had to leave Florida to stay with family because of moderate depression.
Most folks here are polite. those who aren't dont seem to last long.
Well God Bless your parents.
Yeah ive noticed that also kids who join the site dont seem to last that long here either.
chaser how old are you lol
Well why dont you stop by my blog and youll find some info about me.
The lasting ones are generally folks who have experienced a hurricane firsthand. I rarely if ever see someone saying I've never seen one and want to....etc.
i'm asking because you sound like someone who has their head on straight
I'm off to watch a little B-Ball. Have fun everyone. Ivan&Mo.
I'm a 4 cane,7tropical storm dont feel like that much typing survivor.
From my bio-

"Iam 28 years old born and raised in New Jersey but spend most of my time traveling around the country for work.But you catch me in West Palm. Thanks! "
2008 National Hurricane Conference

March 31-April 4 |The Rosen Centre Hotel |Orlando, FL

The nation's forum for education and professional training in hurricane preparedness! Link
Thanks for the great talks everyone gonna go watch some TV. Have a Great night!!
Two hook echo storms west of Oklahoma City
Two hook echoes
Drak, I'm also noting the warmer than usual waters off the mid-ATL coast of the US. If the temps there remain anomalously warm, throughout the season, they will be more likely to support a major storm all the way up the coast . . .
606. Ivansrvivr 9:54 PM EDT on March 30, 2008
I toured S.Fl in December 04 to see how bad it was. It wasn't even close to Ivan in the Panhandle. not even in the same ballpark.


Most of S. FL didn't really get hit hard in '04. Both Frances and Jeanne hit around Stuart, north of Jupiter, and thus spared S. FL much of the worst winds and storm surge. If you didn't get out on to Jupiter Island and so on, you may not have seen the worst. I have a friend who lives on the island. Before she could get things straightened out from Frances, Jeanne came along. After the second storm, she simply packed up and moved in with her daughter in Tennessee for the winter. She said she'd rather deal with the cold and the tornados than the aftermath of yet another 'cane.

I think the aftermath of a hurricane can be pretty depressing, especially as you get older. You stop feeling so resilient, I guess.
Some of the others were talking about that earlier. We still have 2 months, and maybe as many as 4, before anything can realistically be expected to form. If the temps stay warmer than usual in the east Atlantic, it could mean potentially more long-lived Cape Verde canes. Depending on where the AB high sets up and how solid it is, that could mean more storms recurving out to sea (like 2006) or storms hitting FL and the eastern seaboard, like 1999 and 2004.
ya baha i live just a tad north of jupiter islnad and i got the brunt of frances and jeane. being in the eye of frances for 6 hrs and having big sister jeane come 3 weeks later, i must have pissed someone off upstairs.
I hate to say it, haha, but it seems the Jupiter area was a landfall magnet in the 20s and 30s. Quite a few canes came ashore in that stretch between West Palm and Vero.
baha i just hope thats not the case this yr , oh ya baha i've been meaning to ask you what cat was frances at when you went through her.
I am a longtime lurker and figure I might as well jump and say hello. I am from Ky. but have worked hurricanes and other catastrophe events for the past 6 years as a insuranve adjuster. Weather has always been facinating and I really appreciate the knowledge I can gain from the bloggers on this site.
Actually, I saw Stuart, Vero ,Jupiter, (all beach areas). Was there damage? absolutely. Was infrastructure wiped out? No. Look at the damage estimate $ for the storms. Keep in mind Ivan hit a largely unpopulated area in N.W Florida compared to S.FL's cities. Jupiter alone is as populated as Escambia Co. Ivan's damage was 100-150 miles either side. Ivan's surge put I-10 on the seafloor, only it was 15 miles inland in escambia bay not the Gulf. Ivan was in the same league as Hugo and Katrina. Jeanne and Wilma were bad but larger sized storms inflict their strongest winds for longer duration causing far more extensive damage. Dennis in 05 hit the same area. Technically it was stronger but it's smaller core of strong winds left far less damage. I'm not talking about the "strength" of those storms as much as the size and duration of strong winds. The size/duration had as much or more impact as strength.(being in the right front quad didnt help either though)
ivan i wasn't really talking about the beaches . i was just saying the inland damage
oh ya baha i've been meaning to ask you what cat was frances at when you went through her.

I'm not Baha obviously, but I believe Frances was a Category 3 as it went through the Bahamas. It wasn't anything like Floyd though (at least I don't think; Baha can confirm, seeing as he lives in the Bahamas) though, which was a strong Category 4 when it hit the Bahamas.
If I remember correctly, Hurricane Frances hit the Bahamas has a Weak Cat 4 storm as it passed over San Salvador, it then weakened into a Cat 3 as it moved over the islands caused by increasing wind shear.
Looks like a very defined hook echo west of Tulsa......those people should take cover.
674. KoritheMan 4:43 AM EDT on March 31, 2008
oh ya baha i've been meaning to ask you what cat was frances at when you went through her.

I'm not Baha obviously, but I believe Frances was a Category 3 as it went through the Bahamas. It wasn't anything like Floyd though (at least I don't think; Baha can confirm, seeing as he lives in the Bahamas) though, which was a strong Category 4 when it hit the Bahamas.


All correct. Floyd was worse. Frances was big, but Floyd was stronger over the capital. Poor Grand Bahama, OTOH, got the worst of Frances, even though by then it was almost down to cat 2. It was the duration that made it worse for them, along with the eyewall treatment along the entire length of the island. Floyd gave them a relatively glancing blow by comparison.
675. Thunderstorm2 5:18 AM EDT on March 31, 2008
If I remember correctly, Hurricane Frances hit the Bahamas has a Weak Cat 4 storm as it passed over San Salvador, it then weakened into a Cat 3 as it moved over the islands caused by increasing wind shear.


San Sal didn't get much in the way of Cat 4 winds; by the time the eastern side of the storm passed them it was already fading. A good thing, too.
Looks like a very defined hook echo west of Tulsa......those people should take cover.

So far there haven't been any reports of tornadoes; all reports within the last three hours have been hail reports:

Floyd was very similar in size to Hugo. It was a massive storm.

HaHa, to put inland damage in perspective, Ivan still had hurricane force winds in Montgomery AL. That is quite a ways northward over far rougher terrain than FL. Hurricanes with large windfields undergo changes (usually) much slower than their smaller counterparts. Note how Charley exploded approaching SW Florida. Andrew did the same approaching Miami. Wilma had a tiny eyewall when it broke the records in the Carrib. Small diameter storms are harder to predict. They are much more erratic in movement and strength.

My point was that I toured the area extensively to see and compare damage. I did the same after Wilma. Wilma was bad but not like the larger storms. Wilma moved very quickly and the backside was stronger than the front(unusual from my experiences). Not to mention the surge difference between the GOM and Atlantic(be thankful). The shallow Gulf seafloor and flat coastal land west of Pensacola promotes large storm surges that go inland for miles. Pensacola is mostly behind a large hill that protects most areas. That's why Katrinas surge did far more widespread damage than Ivans. The loop current supercharges hurricanes in the Gulf. They usually weaken some as they get away from it but it takes so long for surge to drop, that Ivan Katrina and Rita were 5's over the L.C. and still had their Cat 5 surges a day later when they went inland. Bottom line is I think the windfield size and speed of motion should be considered in categorizing a hurricane. An example here in S.Fl is Francis that was a 1 to weak 2 but moved so slowly that the duration caused alot more damage than is usually expected from a cat 1 or weaker 2.
looks like moisture is being drawn ne. out of E-Pac tropical disturbance and will add to flood potential in Texas thru midwest.
Heads up in the midwest all the ingredients look to be coming together for a severe weather event maybe not a large outbreak but an outbreak covering a significant area
Take a Virtual Tour of the NHC
New online feature brings you behind the scenes


Visitors anywhere in the world can now get a virtual tour of NOAA's National Hurricane Center. With the click of a computer mouse, the online link provides panoramic views of the different rooms in the facility, accompanied by an audio description. You will be able to move around each room in a circle, stop, back up, and zoom in. A text window is available for the hearing-impaired. Link

The hurricane forecast comes out around June 1st correct???
GM,all,heads up in the midwest,some nasty storms out there.
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1045 am CDT for
northwestern Lawrence and southeastern Jasper counties...

At 1004 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
track a confirmed tornado near Miller... or 9 miles north of Mount
Vernon... moving northeast at 30 mph.

This tornado will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Lawrence and southeastern Jasper counties. This also includes
Interstate 44 between mile markers 29 and 50.

At 1010 am CDT... a tornado was reported on the ground near the
intersections of highways 96 and 39 about 2 miles south of Miller.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT Monday afternoon
for southeast Kansas and southern Missouri.
Dupage SEVERE weather Warnings Page Link

TORNADO WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 1034 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
TORNADO WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 1029 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1024 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
SVR T-STORM WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 1010 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
TORNADO WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 1008 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
NWS Missouri Radar Link
just for fun....what does evey one think this hurricane season will be like?
Historical Hurricane Tracks

The Historical Hurricane Tracks tool is an interactive mapping application that allows you to easily search and display Atlantic Basin and East-Central Pacific Basin tropical cyclone data. Link
Lots of energy in the se atlantic-continous onshore flow will drive rough surf all week-but last Sat, clean & fun around 3-4' on the outside at Ponce. But one toe in the water will tell you we have a long way to go for tropical storm temps.
i got alot of rain all last night. and also lots of lightening. And thanks pat for that link.
I have lived in the Keys for over 40 years, and just in the last few years have evacuated sometimes. I did not go for Wilma, and though it was windy, what really got me was the surge after the storm had passed. Couldn't stop the water from coming in the house, and you are correct, it does take a toll on your mental health. First time we ever had damage to the house. And it does help to talk to someone. I really appreciate the chats you have concerning the weather and I will read more than contribute.
the funny thing is i am watching old weather channel clips from the 80's and 90's lol
What our hurricane season will be like? Lets ask our pals over at Notsoaccurateweather. Remember last year? From his original forecast to Dean and Felix - Florida was getting killed. We all know what happened.

I think it will be somewhat busy. In the end, it is not the number of storms but the direct hits. IE: 1992
Lets not start with the accuweather bashing!Everyone was off last season with there predictions.Personally for me predicting were a tropical cyclone will strike is a complicated matter as there are many factors involved surrounding a particular storm.

Again 2007 was very busy just not for the U.S. once again.Remember there are areas to the south that took it really hard.
Reynolds updated Sea Surface Temperature Anamolies

Wow the anomalies in the eastern atlantic are crazy!
701. hurricane23 7:32 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
Wow the eastern atlantic is ridiculous!!


Yea it is. Need to heat up the other two-thirds of the MDR though. I'm also watching that warm spot in the Gulf of Mexico.
GOM 120 Hour Surface Current Forecast Model Link

GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Link
As of now the loop current does not extend as far north as it did back in 07 were it reached around 28/29N.Right now its around 26N.During the coming months the MDR region will probably warm up a bit along with other areas.Also the florida Straits are a tad warmer right now.

The anomalies of the african coast could spark some serious development this year.
704. hurricane23 7:45 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
As of now the loop current does not extend as far north as it did back in 07 were it reached around 28/29N.Right now its around 26N.During the coming months the MDR region will probably warm up a bit along with other areas.Also the florida Straits are a tad warmer right now.

The anomalies of the african coast could spark some serious development this year.



I agree Adrian. Those waters are definitely heat with as much as three degrees above average.

I'm monitoring the Caribbean which seems to be .5 degrees below average
The TCHP, which is more important than SSTs, is really anemic this year, especially in the Caribbean, as compared to last year (some areas have a TCHP that is almost nonexistant, when it was as high as 100 last year, like around the Lesser Antilles):


Midwest storms so far~ damage confined to OK & MO. 1 tornado, lotta hail~ 1 3/4" biggest. Barns, roofs, light poles & windows taking the brunt, with a gas station collapse due to wind.

If the African anomolies "hold" and the dust levels (SAL) remains low, then we could see some of the stonger waves remain intact as they come off the coast and have very ripe conditions for further development.....However, we need to wait until June/July to see what the conditions look like at that time....................
707. MichaelSTL 7:52 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
The TCHP, which is more important than SSTs, is really anemic this year, especially in the Caribbean, as compared to last year (some areas have a TCHP that is almost nonexistant, when it was as high as 100 last year, like around the Lesser Antilles):


That true. Well we still have 2 months to watch and see.
Thats correct STL it looks dead as far a tropical cyclone heat potential this year.During the coming months that could change a bit though.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Select to go to the NWS homepage
National Weather Service
Listing of OFFICIAL* Products. Link
Of course it will change.The Sun Angle will increase everyday till June 21st..

Then 2 months seasonal lag till max Heating Occurs..there will be Plenty-o-fuel to Power the Verdes..come Late Aug and Sept.


The lack of Winter and Spring Cloud cover and other factors allowed the TCHP to creep up in the Carb and points East in early 07.
Africa has been pretty dry for the most part. Drier conditions supports the African Dust.
TVS near Crowley Texas..Link
if the rest of the atlantic heats up like off the coast of africa we could be in trouble.
The TCHP, which is more important than SSTs, is really anemic this year, especially in the Caribbean, as compared to last year (some areas have a TCHP that is almost nonexistant, when it was as high as 100 last year, like around the Lesser Antilles):

This is true, but IIRC, the TCHP didn't start getting really high in 2007 until around August or so.
Pic of the SAL moving into the Atlantic..Link

Oct. 13, 2006 � Never underestimate the power of something small. Researchers are finding that Saharan dust storms containing tiny specks of dust are linked to suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic. (Click satellite image for larger view of Saharan Air Layer outbreak moving over Africa on March 3, 2004, where vast amounts of Saharan dust clearly can be seen from space. Click here for high resolution version. Image courtesy of NASA.) Link
NOAA Saharan Air Layer Experiment Link
720. StormW 8:11 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
Just looking at he CFS model...appears to be calling for a weaker A/B high, averaging 1020 mb to 1025 mb.

Link please
Afternoon all!

A tornado warning has just been issued for cell N0 south of Fort Worth TX. People in the path of this storm really need to watch this; as it currently looks like a tornado is developing and will soon touch down.

The storm's current velocity will place it in the outer Dallas metro area within the hour. Although there is NO tornado warning for Dallas or Fort Worth at this time, residents of Cleburn, Dallas, Tarrant, and Waxahachie counties should closely monitor this situation as it is unknown how long the TVS will last.
723. StormW 8:13 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
721. Drakoen 4:12 PM EDT on March 31, 2008
720. StormW 8:11 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
Just looking at he CFS model...appears to be calling for a weaker A/B high, averaging 1020 mb to 1025 mb.

Link please

Drak,
It's on the accuweather pro site...need a subscription.



Damn lol...
TVS near Crowley Texas..Link
Ft. Worth Live Web Cam Link
Just looking at he CFS model...appears to be calling for a weaker A/B high, averaging 1020 mb to 1025 mb.

Wouldn't a weaker Bermuda/Azores high cause the SSTs in the MDR (which are quite cool right now, as everyone knows; even cooler than last year, and that's saying quite a bit) to warm up due to less trade winds blowing across the Atlantic Ocean?
TCHP link anyone? Thanks!
Wouldn't overall lower surface pressures tend to enhance tropical activity StormW?
I can get most things from the CFS except for BH pressure...
726. KoritheMan 4:15 PM EDT on March 31, 2008
Just looking at he CFS model...appears to be calling for a weaker A/B high, averaging 1020 mb to 1025 mb.

Wouldn't a weaker Bermuda/Azores high cause the SSTs in the MDR (which are quite cool right now, as everyone knows; even cooler than last year, and that's saying quite a bit) to warm up due to less trade winds blowing across the Atlantic Ocean?

Correct.

Nice pic of gilbert on your avatar...Here's one you might not have seen before.
@ 727:



This isn't a link, but I thought an image would do better. Notice how non-existant the TCHP is this year compared to last year. If these cool SSTs as well as low TCHP persist into the height of the 08 season, I would be looking at less storms than last year (and possibly short-lived storms too, just like last year, where nearly all tropical cyclones we had dissipated within 3 days or less).
Here is the radar image...unfortunately the storm is getting a bit too close to the radar site and so the new images after this one are being distorted.

727. AWeatherLover 4:17 PM EDT on March 31, 2008
TCHP link anyone? Thanks!

Here
Correct.

If that's the case, it'll be bad if the A/B high stays weak throughout the season. It's about time the MDR really warms up, though; it was below average in both 2006 and 2007.

And nope, I never saw that one before. That's actually a pretty nice photo. Thanks for sharing, Adrian.
Its still March 31st. Lets not right of the season just yet....LOL.
If the A/B high stays weak that will just mean more recurvature like 2006. I just get some data on 2006 and compare it to now.
This looks bad:

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 345 PM CDT for
northeastern Johnson and southeastern Tarrant counties...

At 321 PM CDT... storm spotters and Doppler radar observed a
developing tornado.
This tornado was located near Keene... moving
east at 29 mph. Storm spotters report a funnel cloud may be forming
in this area at 321 PM CDT.

The tornado will be near...
Rendon and Alvarado by 335 PM CDT...
Venus by 345 PM CDT...

Take cover in a basement... or on the lowest floor of your home in an
interior closet or bathroom. Use blankets or pillows for cover.

In addition to tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds are likely
with this storm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT Monday evening for
eastern Texas.

Lat... Lon 3243 9747 3254 9747 3268 9704 3257 9703
3256 9702 3255 9710 3241 9708 3238 9709
time... Mot... loc 2021z 256deg 26kt 3250 9735
STORM SPOTTERS REPORT A FUNNEL CLOUD MAY BE FORMING
IN THIS AREA AT 321 PM CDT.
guys it is only march lmao. anything can happen between now and june.
If the A/B high stays weak that will just mean more recurvature like 2006. I just get some data on 2006 and compare it to now.

Uh, wasn't the A/B high stronger than normal in 2006? I thought I heard someone say the pressure was like in the 1040s a few times throughout the season. If that was the case, then why would a weaker A/B cause more recurving storms?
My Hurricane Seasonal Predictions

guys it is only march lmao

There isn't much else to talk about, though. XD

Well, maybe severe weather.
742. KoritheMan 8:26 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
If the A/B high stays weak that will just mean more recurvature like 2006. I just get some data on 2006 and compare it to now.

Uh, wasn't the A/B high stronger than normal in 2006? I thought I heard someone say the pressure was like in the 1040s a few times throughout the season. If that was the case, then why would a weaker A/B cause more recurving storms?



Troughs. Troughs erode at the ridge easier with a weaker high.
kori i wasn't talking about the topic. i love talking about the tropics. i meant to say its only march and we are starting to doubt the season lmao
747. StormW 8:29 PM GMT on March 31, 2008
738. Drakoen 4:24 PM EDT on March 31, 2008
If the A/B high stays weak that will just mean more recurvature like 2006. I just get some data on 2006 and compare it to now.


Not necessarily...we're still talking anywhere from 30.13 to 30.26" high. All depends on the size and how it's situated...more north, more south, east;west...plus depending where any break in the ridge (trof) may occur.


Yes that too I suppose. I made too much of a general statement LOL....
Thanks all. Very helpful. Sorry for being so needy but any links for archived TCHP data as well?
According to the CFS this may be another year where we have to watch all the waves the come Africa. (like we do anyways lol). Shows alot of increased precipitation of the coast of Africa in July and August.
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 345 PM CDT for
northeastern Johnson and southeastern Tarrant counties...

At 321 PM CDT... storm spotters and Doppler radar observed a
developing tornado. This tornado was located near Keene... moving
east at 29 mph. Storm spotters report a funnel cloud may be forming
in this area at 321 PM CDT.

The tornado will be near...
Rendon and Alvarado by 335 PM CDT...
Venus by 345 PM CDT...

Take cover in a basement... or on the lowest floor of your home in an
interior closet or bathroom. Use blankets or pillows for cover.

In addition to tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds are likely
with this storm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT Monday evening for
eastern Texas.
CFS monthly SST forecast

A tornado warning has now been issued for the southern metro area of Dallas; not including downtown.

Gee Texas is really getting it...with four tornado warnings and four svr storm warnings. Oklahoma and Missouri are also getting hit real hard today... just look at that cell east of Sulphur!
The CFS thinks that the Caribbean for the most part will remain .5 degrees below average until September.
Here's a pretty good few at current sst's acorss the basin.

Gulf and caribbean view.



Allantic wide view.



Here is an excellent link i use all time here at RSMAS for heat potential.Maps return june1.
Per Statistical Average (from NOAA Mariners Guide to Tropical Cyclones for the Atlantic Basin - Year 2000), about 60 waves come off the African coast every H season....However, as we all know, only a small percentage of those actually remain intant (depression status) and even a smaller number survive the crossing intact into the Caribbean/Eastern Atlantic........From the looks of things on the Blog right now (even with a severe weather event in progress), looks like many of the regulars are raring to go this season and I'm sure that we will have some surprises to discuss and analize......Look forward to it!
Close up on the CFS SST projects of the CV season.
CV
AT 406 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
THUNDERSTORM WITH ROTATION NEAR NEAR CEDAR HILL...MOVING EAST AT 33
MPH. THE ROTATION HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE 345 PM BUT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN. EARLIER...THIS STORM DAMAGED OR DESTROYED
TWO HOMES IN GODLEY IN NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY.
WAVETRAK - Northern Atlantic Sector
10-day Java Loop Link

850 hPa Relative Vorticity Link
.5 below avg in the carrib when the avg is mid 80's will not prevent tropical development. The lower anomalies from the Central ATlantic thru the Carribean could cause developing storms to be a bit weaker and more likely to go westward where stronger storms would often recurve earlier. the -.5 anomalies also seem to show a strong bermuda high and resulting tradewinds causing some upwelling.
With the waves traveling in the CV season we may see a similar setup to 2007 where the waves have to reach around 50W to really start developing. Also we have to account for the upper level winds which is another main factor. If the CFS prediction is right with the precip in August then the SAL may not be much of a factor.
If the high is like it was in 07 the squash will be on were systems will be pushed into the caribbean like last year.Not good news for folks who took it hard last season.
Every season (for the last several years) has brought several unexpected turns (hyper active year/dust choking in mid-season/sheer rules in 2006/the Felix and Dean "lowriders" last year)....So, as always, it will never be written in stone as to what may actually happen until the season is upon us and we should expect the unexpected..........
I'm glad I'm enjoying this global warming, because if we didn't have it in Indiana, it would be snowing right now, the average high tempuratures is running around 4 degrees below normal. Our normal daily temps are averaging around 50-52,normal is 57.It's cold and rainy, sucks to be us. Heck last year it only rained twice in the month of May. Can't wait to see what the summer will bring.
the high is there now, but the Nina is fading. As the Nina's effects fade too that high would likely be much closer to normal. The squash effect may occur early but not last into the Cape Verde(Aug-Sept) or W Carrib (Oct-Nov)season.
WWB, you are exactly right. That is why (in my case) guesses are just guesses. Not meant to be any more than mentioning a possible scenario.
SPC Storm Reports so far today Link
I'm glad I'm enjoying this global warming, because if we didn't have it in Indiana, it would be snowing right now, the average high tempuratures is running around 4 degrees below normal.

LOL... A 1 degree rise in global temperatures has virtually no effect on day-to-day weather, which can very easily run +/- 10 degrees from normal (or more); this is why, for example, the average low here rises above freezing in early March but the last frost typically occurs in early April, a month later (average temperature rises about 10 degrees in the same period).

In fact, I am not concerened at all about rising temperatures from global warming (what is the difference between a high of 101 degrees and a high of 100 degrees in the summer, especially as most warming has occurred in the winter and at high latitudes?). There was also a poll recently about that; many others are not really concered about temperatures either; given the last few years here, I am most concerned about extreme weather.
The daily morning Lows here in nola are running a full 10 degrees above the morning avg Low.
This morning was 68 for a Low.Avg is 55.

But hey..we all know the Spring is coming earlier in the Northern Hemisphere..as well as a early greening and Extended Growing season.

Ask any Farmer.

770. Patrap 12:00 AM GMT on April 01, 2008 Hide this comment.
The daily morning Lows here in nola are running a full 10 degrees above the morning avg Low.
This morning was 68 for a Low.Avg is 55.

But hey..we all know the Spring is coming earlier in the Northern Hemisphere..as well as a early greening and Extended Growing season.

Ask any Farmer.


That farmers in a Mercury Suit from project Mercury, and its also an X-15 suit.
Seen the movie, and liked it.
Space Program rocks.
Dainty space truck completes task
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News

Manoeuvre footage

Europe's "Jules Verne" freighter has demonstrated its ability to make extremely fine movements right next to the International Space Station (ISS). Link
Lets not start with the accuweather bashing!Everyone was off last season with there predictions.Personally for me predicting were a tropical cyclone will strike is a complicated matter as there are many factors involved surrounding a particular storm.

Again 2007 was very busy just not for the U.S. once again.Remember there are areas to the south that took it really hard.


I completely agree with you. That why it bugs me that they come on in May/June and tell everyone that Florida (or other places) is at a very "high risk" for a major hurricane.

I personally don't like that anyone predicts the number of storms. I would rather them do their analysis, and state - below, near or above the long term average number of storms.

I like what Dr. M. does with a two week outlook. He can look at current conditions, analyze two week models and come to a sensable prediction.
CL, STEERING. not numbers. The Bermuda High calls the shots during hurricane season.
773. clwstmchasr 12:23 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
Lets not start with the accuweather bashing!Everyone was off last season with there predictions.Personally for me predicting were a tropical cyclone will strike is a complicated matter as there are many factors involved surrounding a particular storm.

Again 2007 was very busy just not for the U.S. once again.Remember there are areas to the south that took it really hard.

I completely agree with you. That why it bugs me that they come on in May/June and tell everyone that Florida (or other places) is at a very "high risk" for a major hurricane.

I personally don't like that anyone predicts the number of storms. I would rather them do their analysis, and state - below, near or above the long term average number of storms.

I like what Dr. M. does with a two week outlook. He can look at current conditions, analyze two week models and come to a sensable prediction.


Of course lol. He has more things to look at to get a more accurate prediction. Their aren't any models that can predict that far ahead with good accuracy, months before the event
well in a few days were going to get more ideas from CSU and TSR on what this season my look like.Its there 2nd go at this into this season.
776. hurricane23 12:43 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
well in a few days were going to get more ideas from CSU and TSR on what this season my look like.Its there 2nd go at this into this season.


I'm very interested to hear that and especially what they say about the waters of the African coast
Had the La Nina pattern kicked in unexpectedly last season, the Accuweather forecast may have been right. Nobody's preseason prediction came close to what actually occurred. A preseason forecast is no different than picking the superbowl winner before training camp starts. Find the forecaster that during the preseason accurately predicted the steering patterns and landfalls perfectly for last season and that person can bash Accuweather all day long.
779. trunkmonkey 8:00 PM CDT on March 31, 2008

I reported that (and don't try to reply, see the link at the bottom of each comment?)
Evening JFV..
Hi guys

Can't believe 8 weeks to armchair forecasting !.

How are you all doing ?
A vigorous broad area of low pressure along the Gulf of Guinea Coast. 700 mb analyses showed a bit of potential vort with this system with accompanied surge of northeasterlies. Interesting feature but does not appear to be associated with a African Wave.

Okay...doing Taxes on line.

Beating Uncle Sam best I can.
Lighten up dude, the poster was just acknowledging the severe Weather in Mo.

His language was not nice, in any way... I wonder how many children have read that?
The reasoning behind it not being a wave becuz it does not appear to have formed or maintained within by the instability of the AEJ. But interesting convection.
As I have said many times b4..
I dont pay no mind to Seasonal Forecasts.
They incomplete guesses at best.
I focus on impacts and aftereffects..mostly.

Hard nuff to focus on Preparation and the individual Threats, to consider what someone or some University group comes up with Number wise.

They serve no real purpose other than hype,media attention and Blog spats. In my opinion.
Just got back from Jackson Hole.

3 feet of fresh powder at the end of March !
Low in the NW Pacific Ocean

QuikSCAT of the low

Seasonal forecasting is much like playing roulette; bet on more or less active ( red or black ) and you have a 50/50 chance of being right. Bet on a specific number and the odds of being wrong go up significantly.
can someone give me a link to the NAM GFS model page please. I had to re install puter and lost all my shortcuts
Lighten up dude, the poster was just acknowledging the severe Weather in Mo.

His language was not nice, in any way... I wonder how many children have read that?




Well..at least one has I can certainly say..LOL
Google "NAM,GFS tropical Models"..you'll find a couple thousands links to it.
Nice little extratropical storm off of Japan right now.
Merry Happy Aprils Fools Day

Yesterday in Northern Virginia it rained and highs were in the 60s two weeks before highs reached 70 and it was sunny. In VA is in like a Lamb out Like a Lion
the weather was similar last year
I forgot to mention its supposed to rain again today April showers bring May flowers
Talk later
all4hurricanes 10:42 AM GMT on April 01, 2008
I forgot to mention its supposed to rain again today April showers bring May flowers


And the May Flowers bring JUNE BUGS!!!
Oh really I didn't know that
Bush Declairs We are leaving IRAQ!

April fools! :-(