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New Blockbuster IPCC Climate Report: Comprehensive, Authoritative, Conservative

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:31 AM GMT on September 26, 2013

Comprehensive. Authoritative. Conservative.
Those words summarize the world's most rigorous and important scientific report in history: the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate assessment, due to be released at 4am EDT Friday in Stockholm, Sweden. The Nobel Prize-winning IPCC has put together an amazingly authoritative and comprehensive report on a subject crucial to the future of civilization, a report that will guide policymakers worldwide as they struggle to cope with the growing chaos generated by the Great Climate Disruption that is already upon us. The first 31 pages of the report, called the "Summary For Policymakers", is what will be released Friday, and this summary will lay out a powerful scientific case that significant climate change with severe impacts is already occurring, humans are mostly responsible, the pace of climate change is expected to accelerate, and we can make choices to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases to limit the damage.

Q: What is the IPCC?
A: In 1988, 300 scientists and high-ranking government officials at an international conference convened by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) concluded that changes in the atmosphere due to human pollution “represent a major threat to international security and are already having harmful consequences over many parts of the globe.” Immediate action was needed, they said, to negotiate a set of strict, specific targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But who should coordinate such an effort? The conservative Reagan Administration and some other governments were wary of control by any group that was part of the United Nations structure. These governments proposed formation of a new, fully independent group under the direct control of representatives appointed by each government—that is, an intergovernmental panel. Responding to this pressure, the WMO and UNEP collaborated in creating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The IPCC was neither a strictly scientific nor a strictly political body, but a unique hybrid. It could issue reports only with the firm agreement of a great majority of the world’s leading climate scientists, plus the unanimous consensus of all participating governments. Importantly, it would put policy options on the table, but would not make explicit policy recommendations. Given these requirements, the IPCC reports tend to be quite conservative, but have unimpeachable authority.

Q: What is an IPCC report?
A: Every 5 - 6 years, the IPCC issues a massive 3,000+ page report summarizing the current state of knowledge on climate change. These "assessment reports" have been issued in 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, and now, 2013. The latest assessment will be released in four parts:

"The Physical Science Basis" (September 2013) will describe the observed and predicted changes to Earth's climate.

"Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" (March 2014) will document the dire consequences associated with the path that we’re on.

"Mitigation of Climate Change" (April 2014) will outline what it will take to get us back on track to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

The "Synthesis Report" (October 2014) will summarize all of the other reports.

The scientists who prepare the 3,000+ page report cite over 9,200 peer-reviewed scientific articles, but present no original research of their own. At least 259 authors from 39 countries drafted the part of the report being released this week, and the report was subjected to two rounds of review by 1089 experts in 55 countries beginning in December 2011. None of the scientists were paid for their work. The report was also reviewed by government representatives from 38 nations, and the final report that is being debated in Stockholm this week was revised based on the over 54,000 review comments received. The most important part of the report is the "Summary for Policy Makers", a 31-page document that summarizes the key scientific findings, used by governments to make policy decisions on how to respond to climate change. The "Summary for Policy Makers" for "The Physical Science Basis" portion of the 2013 IPCC report is being released on September 27. The actual 1,000+ page scientific report that the "Summary for Policy Makers" summarizes is being released the following Monday (September 30.) While the "Summary for Policy Makers" is drafted by the scientists who serve as the lead authors for the IPCC report, the summary is subject to approval by the governments of the 195 member nations of the IPCC. During the final week of the approval process, politicians can weigh in and demand changes to the summary drafted by the scientists, since the final "Summary for Policy Makers" requires unanimous approval by all of the IPCC nations. The IPCC reports have the most elaborate review and approval process for any scientific report in the world. In 2007, the IPCC won the Nobel Peace Prize. In short, three words summarize the IPCC reports:

Comprehensive.
Authoritative.
Conservative.


FIgure 1. IPCC lead authors gather for a group photo at the four most recent meetings for drafting of the 2013 IPCC assessment report. Image credit: IPCC.

Q: Do errors in the IPCC reports undermine confidence in the science?
A: No. Two small errors have been found in the 3000+ pages of the 2007 IPCC report. Neither has anything to do with the basic conclusions that the globe is unequivocally warming and that human activity is the primary cause (one error was simply a typo.) The mistakes have been acknowledged and corrected and review procedures are being strengthened to avoid future errors. In a report of over 3,000 pages by hundreds of authors, it is not unusual that there would be a few minor errors. Contrarians seeking to discredit climate science, and some in the media, have blown these errors out of proportion, claiming the errors invalidate the entire IPCC report. It's like saying we need to throw out an entire phone book because two misspellings were found in it.

Q: What are some of the weaknesses of the IPCC report?
1) The report is already out-of-date, since papers had to be submitted for publication by July 2012 and published by March 2013 in order to be cited.

2) The report is tedious, complex, and difficult to read, making this vital science difficult to access. Little regard was given by the IPCC to communicating the results of the report. Science has little value if it is not understandably communicated to those who need the information. Where are the accompanying explanatory videos? Why was the report issued on a Friday, the worst day of the work week to get attention? The IPCC has devoted a very small portion of its budget to communication and outreach, leaving the interpretation of the report to others. I can understand the reluctance of the IPCC to provide a more slick and showy interpretation of the report, since they might be accused of "spinning" the science, and one of the great strengths of the IPCC report is its great science and the impartiality of the content. But the assumption that the science will speak for itself is wrong. The most powerful and richest corporations in world history--the oil companies--are waging very well-funded PR campaigns to deny the science, play up the uncertainties, and question the character of the scientists who write the report. The world's most rigorous and important scientific report in history is being kicked apart by powerful special interests whose profits are threatened by the findings.

3) Since the "Summary for Policymakers" is subject to unanimous approval by politicians, the science is potentially compromised, and the conclusions will tend to be conservative. Naomi Oreskes, in Chapter Six of her book, "Merchants of Doubt", recounts the haggling that led up to the approval of the 1995 Summary for Policy Makers. Government delegates for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other major oil exporting nations demanded a change to the statement the scientists had drafted, "The balance of evidence suggests an appreciable human influence on climate." For two whole days, the scientists haggled with the Saudi delegate over the single word "appreciable". Nearly 30 different alternatives were discussed before IPCC chair Bert Bolin finally found a word that both sides could accept: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on climate." The term "discernible" established a middle ground by suggesting that human-caused climate change was detectable, but the level of that influence was subject to debate. This sentence would go on to become one the most famous scientific statements ever made about climate change, but it was more conservative than what the scientists wanted.

4) The lower-end emissions scenario, called RCP2.6, which assumes that CO2 concentrations will reach 421 ppm by the year 2100, is highly unlikely. Earth reached 400 ppm of CO2 earlier this year, and CO2 has increased by over 2 ppm per year during the past decade. CO2 emissions are accelerating, and CO2 levels will surpass 421 ppm by the year 2023 at the current rate of acceleration. RCP2.6 requires that we slash emissions of CO2 by 50%, relative to 1990 levels, by 2050. We are currently on a pace to match or exceed the worst-case scenario considered by the IPCC (RCP8.5), where CO2 levels reach 936 ppm by the year 2100.

Commentary
The two higher-end emission scenarios of the four considered by the IPCC will very likely warm the planet more than 2°C (3.6°F) over pre-industrial levels. Two degrees Centigrade represents a "dangerous" level of warming for civilization that we must avoid, according to the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, signed by world leaders including President Obama. We will have to work very hard, and very soon, to keep warming below this 2°C "danger" level. As climate writer Elizabeth Kolbert says, holding the global temperature increase to “only” two degrees Celsius, though, is like limiting yourself to “only” a few rounds of Russian roulette: unless you’re uncommonly lucky, the result is not likely be happy. The 0.9°C warming we've experienced since 1900 has already caused a destabilization of global weather patterns, resulting in unprecedented extreme weather events and accelerating melting of polar ice caps. As a group of climate scientists wrote in 2009 at RealClimate.org,

"Even a “moderate” warming of 2°C stands a strong chance of provoking drought and storm responses that could challenge civilized society, leading potentially to the conflict and suffering that go with failed states and mass migrations. Global warming of 2°C would leave the Earth warmer than it has been in millions of years, a disruption of climate conditions that have been stable for longer than the history of human agriculture."

I'll have a full analysis of the new IPCC report Friday morning, and will be offering expert commentary live on The Weather Channel beginning at 7:10 am EDT on Friday. The 2013 Summary For Policymakers will be available on the IPCC website beginning at 4 am EDT Friday.


Video 1. I did a live interview with http://www.democracynow.org Thursday morning during their 8am - 9am EDT news hour, discussing the upcoming IPCC report.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 497. Naga5000:


Hmm, you really wanted to go there. You are simply disingenuous.

"Yobi

I contacted Dr. Schnell via email and this is our conversation:

I inquired
"Dr. Schnell,

I hate to bother you with anything as trivial as this will be to you, but a fellow climate blogger has made the claim that you stated that El Nino events would begin to endure for 18 years in duration. Is there any truth to this claim being made by this blogger about you? If so, would you be kind enough to provide me with a link to such a paper?

Thank you,

Dr. Schnell responded
"What I said many years ago in an interview was that with climate warming we might see the possibility that El Nino events could become more prevalent and last longer. I have no idea where teh 18 years crept in."

I replied
"Dr, Schnell,

I wish to thank you for your quick response back to me. I happen to agree with you that El Nino events may become more frequent and enduring, but I am not a scientist.

Allow me to inform you as to where this information about what you were claimed to have said originated from on the blog. This is the link that we were given. - BBC Link

This is where the current discussion on this is taking place - Dr. Rood's Climate Blog %u2013 You may even know Dr. Rood?

I wish that you may find the time to make an appearance on the blog yourself. I know that you could add a lot to the discussions on climate change. I hope that will at least consider it.

May I quote your response to me on Dr. Rood%u2019s blog? I will not do so without your permission to proceed.

Thank you, sir"

Dr. Schnell replied
"Thanks for the link to the BBC interview from 16 years back. I did say 18 but that was just a mirror of the 18 months to make a point that might be remembered.

We will have to wait a few more decades to see how the El Nino issue plays out.

Use any of my responses and comments as you see fit.

Cheers,

Russ Schnell"


So he said something but didn't mean it? Was making a point by exaggerating? (credibility evaporating)
502. yoboi
Quoting 497. Naga5000:


Hmm, you really wanted to go there. You are simply disingenuous.

"Yobi

I contacted Dr. Schnell via email and this is our conversation:

I inquired
"Dr. Schnell,

I hate to bother you with anything as trivial as this will be to you, but a fellow climate blogger has made the claim that you stated that El Nino events would begin to endure for 18 years in duration. Is there any truth to this claim being made by this blogger about you? If so, would you be kind enough to provide me with a link to such a paper?

Thank you,

Dr. Schnell responded
"What I said many years ago in an interview was that with climate warming we might see the possibility that El Nino events could become more prevalent and last longer. I have no idea where teh 18 years crept in."

I replied
"Dr, Schnell,

I wish to thank you for your quick response back to me. I happen to agree with you that El Nino events may become more frequent and enduring, but I am not a scientist.

Allow me to inform you as to where this information about what you were claimed to have said originated from on the blog. This is the link that we were given. - BBC Link

This is where the current discussion on this is taking place - Dr. Rood's Climate Blog %u2013 You may even know Dr. Rood?

I wish that you may find the time to make an appearance on the blog yourself. I know that you could add a lot to the discussions on climate change. I hope that will at least consider it.

May I quote your response to me on Dr. Rood%u2019s blog? I will not do so without your permission to proceed.

Thank you, sir"

Dr. Schnell replied
"Thanks for the link to the BBC interview from 16 years back. I did say 18 but that was just a mirror of the 18 months to make a point that might be remembered.

We will have to wait a few more decades to see how the El Nino issue plays out.

Use any of my responses and comments as you see fit.

Cheers,

Russ Schnell"



It's a perfect example of an alarmist gone wild....why promote undue fear with the public???? What else is being overhyped to scare the public????
Quoting 502. yoboi:



It's a perfect example of an alarmist gone wild....why promote undue fear with the public???? What else is being overhyped to scare the public????


LOL..I am cracking up over here at that conversation..he got busted...
Quoting 502. yoboi:



It's a perfect example of an alarmist gone wild....why promote undue fear with the public???? What else is being overhyped to scare the public????


You all ready knew this, you continue to beat this dead horse. This was not published science, nor a prediction.
Quoting 502. yoboi:



It's a perfect example of an alarmist gone wild....why promote undue fear with the public???? What else is being overhyped to scare the public????


It was one scientist talking about "unpublished scientific research" 16 years ago. Regardless of the conclusion, that's not worth a serious debate, and is in no way analagous to the quantity of published research in AGW and the near unanimous consensus among the scientific community.
Quoting 504. Naga5000:


You all ready knew this, you continue to beat this dead horse. This was not published science, nor a prediction.


but he said it though?
The agenda is power and control all the money is flowing to politicians and green big business and big wall street as govt pumps billions of dollars to elite people who will tell us how to live.gr een is going to be green with all your money lining big govt bosses.Most on this site involed with environmentalism will be well taken care of those that don't agree no luck.Maybe you can be like ALGORE and fly around and make millions of dollars telling us not to heat our houses and use laterns for light.Me I have to work and my job includes burning a lot of gas,of course if you take this away maybe I can just live off you guys and all that green govt money they print every month.I predict if these policies are followed the global economy will be destroyed and chaos will reign!
Quoting 492. help4u:
It doesn't matter what is true it only matters what people believe is true.Paul Watson founder of greenpeace.You guys still believe in fairy tails,pelt down man etc.
I do agree to a certain extent, when there is religion and politics involved try not to force it onto someone with differing views because it only pushes them further away from the topic of discussion. With science it is a little bit different, you have hypothesis which needs to be tested to become a theory and for that theory to become a law you need it to be proven. Once proven and tested it becomes a law and there is no debating its credibility because at that point it has become a fact and therefore all opinions that attempt to discredit it won't matter anymore because in the end who are you going to trust the average joe or someone like Sir Isaac Newton? Global Warming is not Law it's a theory it has been tested and so far the tests show a warming planet, but that doesn't mean that a new trend won't start and the planet cools again, and what could make that happen is a volcanic eruption or an asteroid impact.
So obviously after 4 pages of science posted today that fully supports AGW. One quote from 16 years ago made in an article with no scientific support,no publication, and a response from the person itself disproves AGW. Man...I just don't even know.
Quoting 504. Naga5000:


You all ready knew this, you continue to beat this dead horse. This was not published science, nor a prediction.


But it is one of your perfect scientist making a public, published statement that is complete and udder B.S. (he shoots, he scorrrreeesssss)
A well respected and knowledgeable blogger takes time to answer any questions pertaining to meteorology, hydrology and AGW.

Certain folks do not like and/or understand his explanations, and instead of truly appreciating what a valuable resource we have on hand, the blog is spammed with questions regarding his work status.

Some days this blog is truly unbelievable...I for one would like to see this blog retain these resources, not chase them away.

On that note, I'm off to read the paper provided by weathermanwannabe (thanks for providing).

Blog nicely, everyone. DJ, hope you feel better.
Quoting 510. StormPro:


But it is one of your perfect scientist making a public, published statement that is complete and udder B.S. (he shoots, he scorrrreeesssss)


Stop with the assumptions of "perfect scientist" crap. I never even saw this article before Yoboi brought it up, you know why? I get my science from the published papers not from a 16 year old BBC article.

This is just sad today.
513. yoboi
Quoting 505. sonofagunn:


It was one scientist talking about "unpublished scientific research" 16 years ago. Regardless of the conclusion, that's not worth a serious debate, and is in no way analagous to the quantity of published research in AGW and the near unanimous consensus among the scientific community.



So you say let's just sweep it under the green rug.....science at it's best????
This has to be one of the biggest disturbances ive ever seen
Quoting 514. junie1:
This has to be one of the biggest disturbances ive ever seen
I agree I said earlier that this disturbance looks better than some of the tropical systems we have had this season.
All those completely beaten down and ready to puke over the AGW mudslinging, raise your hands!!!!!

Man what I wouldn't give for three, 23 day long hurricanes to track right now.
Quoting 495. LAbonbon:


Well, thank you DJ, but I think in this case you may have overestimated me :P

I may try to find something describing how it works, and how to interpret, because I am a bit 'stuck on stupid' with this...


Try the Doppler Effect and Doppler radar on Wiki.

Its the concept that the frequency of the wavelength changes for the observer relative to the motion of its source. So they bounce energy at a particular frequency off the particles in the air. The change in frequency of the wave allows them to measure the velocity and direction.
Quoting 513. yoboi:



So you say let's just sweep it under the green rug.....science at it's best????


Your confusing terminology again. He made a hyperbolic statement in an article. That was not science. Have you read any of his published research? Or are you just going to trash the guy further based on one hyperbolic quote? If this is the state of evidence against AGW that you produce, I have some very bad news for you.

Ironically, I wonder how folks would feel if some of their statements in life were posted on a public forum where we can then use them to make the false assumption about their lines of work.
Quoting 512. Naga5000:


Stop with the assumptions of "perfect scientist" crap. I never even saw this article before Yoboi brought it up, you know why? I get my science from the published papers not from a 16 year old BBC article.

This is just sad today.


Yeah you aren't used to losing your argument.
I have a question then. Why did you basically interview him via email? Hoping to prove another blogger wrong, that's why. We aren't all living in our mother's basement and beating up people via insults over the keyboard. you tried to get Yoboi and one of the "respected CC scientist" (is that better) got busted telling a tall one. Just admit it and move on. I respect the fact that you put the answers here tho when you could have just buried it
Quoting 514. junie1:
This has to be one of the biggest disturbances ive ever seen
Quoting 515. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I agree I said earlier that this disturbance looks better than some of the tropical systems we have had this season.
maybe 96L.
Quoting 519. StormPro:


I have a question then. Why did you basically interview him via email? Hoping to prove another blogger wrong, that's why. We aren't all living in our mother's basement and beating up people via insults over the keyboard. you tried to get Yoboi and one of the "respected CC scientist" (is that better) got busted telling a tall one. Just admit it and move on. I respect the fact that you put the answers here tho when you could have just buried it


It wasn't me. Thanks though. The reason he was asked ages ago in Dr. Rood's blog was because Yoboi harped on it for 5 days.

Personally, I find it great that a scientist responds and clarifies a statement he probably did not even recall making 16 years ago. How's that for transparency?
that thing wont develop, next, like you guys see a cluster of clouds and get hyped, is that what this season has come to.
Quoting 517. daddyjames:


Try the Doppler Effect and Doppler radar on Wiki.

Its the concept that the frequency of the wavelength changes for the observer relative to the motion of its source. So they bounce energy at a particular frequency off the particles in the air. The change in frequency of the wave allows them to measure the velocity and direction.


Thanks, DJ. It's the direction aspect that has me thrown. I'll read these.
Obamacare also run by the world's best and smartest people.lol Also will subsidize 111,500 abortions a year,see what I mean by being on the left side go left you get everything from big govt go right and you might get killed.The road to destruction is being laid out now for everyone to follow like sheep to slaughter.Three more years ought to do it.
Quoting 518. Naga5000:


Your confusing terminology again. He made a hyperbolic statement in an article. That was not science. Have you read any of his published research? Or are you just going to trash the guy further based on one hyperbolic quote? If this is the state of evidence against AGW that you produce, I have some very bad news for you.

Ironically, I wonder how folks would feel if some of their statements in life were posted on a public forum where we can then use them to make the false assumption about their lines of work.


They are instinctively trying to change the debate to a topic they can win. Don't fall into the trap. No need to defend a single statement from 16 years ago that was discussing unpublished research. That one hypothesizing, exaggerating, scientist from 16 years ago was wrong, let them have that "victory."
526. yoboi
Quoting 518. Naga5000:


Your confusing terminology again. He made a hyperbolic statement in an article. That was not science. Have you read any of his published research? Or are you just going to trash the guy further based on one hyperbolic quote? If this is the state of evidence against AGW that you produce, I have some very bad news for you.

Ironically, I wonder how folks would feel if some of their statements in life were posted on a public forum where we can then use them to make the false assumption about their lines of work.



You are comparing apples to oranges....He is in a position to either help or hurt people with the words he says......
Quoting 521. Naga5000:


It wasn't me. Thanks though. The reason he was asked ages ago in Dr. Rood's blog was because Yoboi harped on it for 5 days.


I modified my comment, just to be fair to you. I hope you know I'm not trying to personally attack you or your feelings, (unlike what happened to me earlier). I am sincere in the desire to understand more but I'm leaning toward the natural cycle theory with a little hot sauce thrown in by man. All this bickering accomplishes nothing though, stops nothing from warming or cooling. I have yet to see a plausible or feasible worldwide plan
Sorry FL but if the Euro verifies then we are in for another dump of rain as deep tropical moisture moves north as this Caribbean disturbance moves into the Southern Gulf.

Quoting 514. junie1:
This has to be one of the biggest disturbances ive ever seen


My eye test is telling me this might be a disaster in the making
Quoting 494. StormTrackerScott:


No wonder where are tax dollars are going.


Then maybe you should question the very resources you utilize to make your forecasts? Or should we cut that all out too?
Tropics beginning to get one last push maybe.

There is our 10% in the Atlantic, wave it good bye heading OTS. And the the system in the Caribbean.



Starts to get going at 162 hrs.



Over FL. 216 hrs.



And becomes a Nor'Easter:

Quoting 527. StormPro:


I modified my comment, just to be fair to you. I hope you know I'm not trying to personally attack you or your feelings, (unlike what happened to me earlier). I am sincere in the desire to understand more but I'm leaning toward the natural cycle theory with a little hot sauce thrown in by man. All this bickering accomplishes nothing though, stops nothing from warming or cooling. I have yet to see a plausible or feasible worldwide plan


Fair enough, all I would like to point out is that so far no natural cycle can account for what we are seeing. The energy has to come from somewhere, we just can't magically add it to the system. That energy, by all data, is coming from increased Ghgs, mainly CO2 which traps energy that would normally radiate back into space.

I think some people think that us who post AGW stuff here want this to be happening. It's quite the opposite. I would love for some natural cycle to be responsible, but so far, no other idea has been shown to be accurate. That's where I stand.

Predictions, future estimates, all of those are tools to try and prepare for possible scenarios. I really don't like getting into that. It clouds the real discussion. People can disagree with those all they want and if that is their basis for not accepting the science behind those predictions so be it. However, I've yet to see one bit of evidence showing the basis of AGW Theory to be false. It simply does not exist.
here we go?????
Quoting 524. help4u:


I believe in freedom, don't you? Let's talk about certain state governments trying to dictate what medical procedures should be forced upon people - certainly sounds like government interference to me.
Quoting 430. GulfPilot:
You have got to be kidding me! You appear on a show by an organization (Democracy Now) that is so progressive that it makes MSNBC look like rabid conservatives, and then you expect us to take all that is said as gospel??

Give me a break. You have lost a LOT of credibility with me by posting the video of your "interview". Political trash as far as I'm concerned... just like your early 2013 hurricane predictions for this year.

Sorry, but I used to follow your climate predictions and warnings carefully, but now I'm taking all you say with a grain of salt, and wonder how much of what you are blogging is politically motivated vs actual science.

I'll keep my subscription to Wunderground for the Nexrad pics, and local weather, but lost confidence in the rest.



Quoting 533. Naga5000:


Fair enough, all I would like to point out is that so far no natural cycle can account for what we are seeing. The energy has to come from somewhere, we just can't magically add it to the system. That energy, by all data, is coming from increased Ghgs, mainly CO2 which traps energy that would normally radiate back into space.

I think some people think that us who post AGW stuff here want this to be happening. It's quite the opposite. I would love for some natural cycle to be responsible, but so far, no other idea has been shown to be accurate. That's where I stand.

Predictions, future estimates, all of those are tools to try and prepare for possible scenarios. I really don't like getting into that. It clouds the real discussion. People can disagree with those all they want and if that is their basis for not accepting the science behind those predictions so be it. However, I've yet to see one bit of evidence showing the basis of AGW Theory to be false. It simply does not exist.



Fair enough Naga but, (there's always a but lol), simply expounding the theory from the highest mountain tops won't stop anything. So instead of getting so sensitive about us Cro-Magnon types denying the existence, why don't said scientist set about finding a cure, or at least a treatment? It's like discovering you have cancer and forgoing treatment and doubling your cigarette use while arguing with the doctor that you don't have it. If the scientific community feels this is the way, then we need them to follow thru and come up with the cure. Agree?
I am watching two tropical waves here
OMG Relax people, that 10 percent is going OTS anyway and MOST LIKELY wont do anything. RELAX, I can so tell this season has sucked cause of how hyped up this lemon is.
Quoting 535. daddyjames:


I believe in freedom, don't you? Let's talk about certain state governments trying to dictate what medical procedures should be forced upon people - certainly sounds like government interference to me.

You mean like forced sterilization upon certain segments of society?
Quoting 537. StormPro:



Fair enough Naga but, (there's always a but lol), simply expounding the theory from the highest mountain tops won't stop anything. So instead of getting so sensitive about us Cro-Magnon types denying the existence, why don't said scientist set about finding a cure, or at least a treatment? It's like discovering you have cancer and forgoing treatment and doubling your cigarette use while arguing with the doctor that you don't have it. If the scientific community feels this is the way, then we need them to follow thru and come up with the cure. Agree?


On that note, let's stop debating whether or not its happening, and discuss what steps can be taken to mitigate it.
Quoting 539. SuperStorm093:
OMG Relax people, that 10 percent is going OTS anyway and MOST LIKELY wont do anything. RELAX, I can so tell this season has sucked cause of how hyped up this lemon is.


Sure is better than the non-stop AGW harrangue. Debating cirrus clouds would be better than this nonsense.
Quoting 537. StormPro:



Fair enough Naga but, (there's always a but lol), simply expounding the theory from the highest mountain tops won't stop anything. So instead of getting so sensitive about us Cro-Magnon types denying the existence, why don't said scientist set about finding a cure, or at least a treatment? It's like discovering you have cancer and forgoing treatment and doubling your cigarette use while arguing with the doctor that you don't have it. If the scientific community feels this is the way, then we need them to follow thru and come up with the cure. Agree?


Well the recipe is out there. Seattle, for example now has a plan in place to be carbon neutral by 2050 Link

The problem with any solution is sacrifice. As individuals we don't want to sacrifice our comfort. Big business doesn't want to sacrifice profits. Government doesn't want to sacrifice money, electability, etc.

We can do it, we have to do it gradually, and we have to be realistic about how long it will take to safely transition from a fossil fuel based energy producer to a renewable energy producer without massive societal upheaval. It is an incredibly complex problem and solution, I definitely don't have all the answers, but people are making suggestions, and some places like Seattle are taking the lead.
Quoting 540. seer2012:

You mean like forced sterilization upon certain segments of society?


In what context has this sprung up?
Quoting 541. daddyjames:


On that note, let's debating whether or not its happening, and discuss what steps can be taken to mitigate it.


That's what I've been saying DJ. Regardless of why I may personally feel its happening it is happening. Carbon keeps getting released. Now what do you think about the latest plan to have carbon catching equipment on power plants that will then be dumped back underground.
Where did this new disturbance even come from? Haha. It came out of nowhere!
Quoting 540. seer2012:

You mean like forced sterilization upon certain segments of society?
Just a response to your 535 post.
Quoting 545. StormPro:


That's what I've been saying DJ. Regardless of why I may personally feel its happening it is happening. Carbon keeps getting released. Now what do you think about the latest plan to have carbon catching equipment on power plants that will then be dumped back underground.


I'm all for that - the industry resists because of increased costs for them. No one realistically can propose eliminating all sources of energy derived from burning fossil fuels in the near future. But we can expand into other directions.
Quoting 537. StormPro:



Fair enough Naga but, (there's always a but lol), simply expounding the theory from the highest mountain tops won't stop anything. So instead of getting so sensitive about us Cro-Magnon types denying the existence, why don't said scientist set about finding a cure, or at least a treatment? It's like discovering you have cancer and forgoing treatment and doubling your cigarette use while arguing with the doctor that you don't have it. If the scientific community feels this is the way, then we need them to follow thru and come up with the cure. Agree?
Actually, they've been telling us the cure: stop smoking -- ie stop using fossil fuels. But implementing that cure in a meaningful way involves the political process - locally, nationally, internationally.

Not directed at you, StormPro, because I don't know you, but I suspect a lot of "deniers" are vehemently resisting any acceptance of AGW science because they are afraid they will have to give up a/c SUVs and the rest. The sad thing is if we don't do something about AGW, a lot of people will be giving up more than that.
Quoting 545. StormPro:


That's what I've been saying DJ. Regardless of why I may personally feel its happening it is happening. Carbon keeps getting released. Now what do you think about the latest plan to have carbon catching equipment on power plants that will then be dumped back underground.



I think any carbon capture plan is a great one. We need to start by reducing emissions in any way possible. Reducing emissions will buy us much needed time (provided the predictions are realistic). Solar Link, for example has been experiencing some major breakthroughs that increase efficiency and lower cost. We should be investing in this type of research, regardless of AGW, fossil fuels are finite, the sun (in our existence time frame) isn't.
Quoting 541. daddyjames:


On that note, let's debating whether or not its happening, and discuss what steps can be taken to mitigate it.


OK, first a question, how do we deal with negative externalities?

They are a large part of the problem and any soltion gores someone's ox.

Here's one look at the problems. Stern Report(Executive Summary)

Quoting 547. seer2012:
Just a response to your 535 post.


Yes, it was wrong then and wrong now. But again I ask, in regards to the upcoming implementation of the ACA, how is this relevant?
Geeeeezzzzzzzzz SOMEONE HAS TO TELL THE CATL WAVE THAT WE NEED RAIN!!!!!

ENOUGH IN ENOUGH WITH 2013 FISHES!!
This seems worth reposting today:

"A plague upon this howling! They are louder than the weather..."




Shakespeare, The Tempest, Act I, Scene I.


Thus saith the boatswain to the nobles who are distracting the crew with their trivial need for attention during the peak of the storm...

And likewise do I dedicate the very same sentiment to those who come to this blog specifically to sow disinformation and discord. You know who you are.
Quoting 551. JohnLonergan:


OK, first a question, how do we deal with negative externalities?

They are a large part of the problem and any soltion gores someone's ox.

Here's one look at the problems. Stern Report(Executive Summary)



I do not begrudge business's fighting to retain their business, I can begrudge how they choose to do it. I also can begrudge their motivation, and the fact any "change" advocated for the greater good (be it clean water, acid rain, particulate matter in the air, health of their workers, etc.) is often met with resistance by business interests.

Its also interesting that business often describes how they must must constantly "adapt or die". But yet often are extremely resistant to adapting.

Obviously, I cannot comment on the report until I read it. Given its length, I'll have to get back to you that.
Good evening folks.

Climate change remains a threat despite slowdown in global warming
Deutsche Welle English, Speptember 25

Reports that global warming is progressing slower than initially predicted have given fresh energy to climate skeptics. Experts say climate change remains a threat and efforts to cut carbon emissions should continue.

A temporary hiatus in the pace of global warming, despite rising greenhouse gas emissions has raised questions about the threat presented by climate change. But scientists gathering at the annual Severe Weather Congress (23.- 27.09.2013) in the German city of Hamburg say climate change is an ever-present threat which requires continued attention.

The output of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) continues to surge, forcing up global temperatures. Sea levels are also rising, said Mojib Latif of the Geomar Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel. "This reprieve only refers to the ocean's surface temperature. We can't conclude that climate change has come to a halt." ...


I like the end of the article. Some truth in it, eh?

... Mojib Latif added that there was also agreement that human beings will have to slash global CO2 emissions in order to survive. He says the best way forwrad is to drop emission by 80 percent.

But as the international climate negotiations creep forward at a glacial pace, challenged by resistance from the US, China and Poland, achieving an 80 percent drop in emissions seems unlikely. Plöger says that since CO2 is invisible and doesn't smell, it doesn't bother people,

"If it were a foul-smelling gas and if the smell were to increase as more CO2 was emitted - how fast do you think people would make it disappear?"


Here is the link to the homepage of the above mentioned Severe Weather Congress, taking place in Hamburg/Germany right now.
Two more articles from today and yesterday on "Deutsche Welle English":

'Let business find climate solutions'
The private sector should be allowed to develop innovative solutions to combat climate change, with governments playing an enabling role, according to Caio Koch-Weser, Chairman of the European Climate Foundation. ...

Russia bares its teeth in the Arctic
Greenpeace has tried more than once to scale Russian oil platforms. This time, however, the authorities were ready for them. Critics call the charges 'disproportionate' at best and 'incredibly absurd' at worst. ..
Quoting 511. LAbonbon:
A well respected and knowledgeable blogger takes time to answer any questions pertaining to meteorology, hydrology and AGW.

Certain folks do not like and/or understand his explanations, and instead of truly appreciating what a valuable resource we have on hand, the blog is spammed with questions regarding his work status.

Their tax dollars pay for me to be a scientist, after all, so I'm sure you can see why they wouldn't want me to express science. Not while doing my science job. Not during my free time. Not any time, really.

Some people like to assume they know about me, either my work ethic, my work schedule, the projects I work on, or be it the training I've taken. It's happened for a while and I doubt it goes away.

Quoting junie1:
This has to be one of the biggest disturbances ive ever seen
Looks like It's beginning to spin, at least In the mid to upper levels, nothing at the surface......yet.
Quoting 555. daddyjames:


I do not begrudge business's fighting to retain their business, I can begrudge how they choose to do it. I also can begrudge their motivation, and the fact any "change" advocated for the greater good (be it clean water, acid rain, particulate matter in the air, health of their workers, etc.) is often met with resistance by business interests.

Its also interesting that business often describes how they must must constantly "adapt or die". But yet often are extremely resistant to adapting.

Obviously, I cannot comment on the report until I read it. Given its length, I'll have to get back to you that.


Incidentally, there is an interview with Stern in The Guardian this morning if you're interested.
TPW shows the tropical wave (at 40-50W) concentrating its moisture:



Good afternoon everyone

It's 88, feeling like 98 kind of day around here. Everyone's been talking about how ridiculously hot it's been for the last few weeks. A picture of today:

img src="">

Lindy
563. JRRP
Wow, that could become the storm of the YEAR!
HEADS UP FLORIDA







Sarcasm Meter
HIGH
what a wonderfull day here in the usvi
Quoting 539. SuperStorm093:
OMG Relax people, that 10 percent is going OTS anyway and MOST LIKELY wont do anything. RELAX, I can so tell this season has sucked cause of how hyped up this lemon is.
speaking of lemon how are ya today sour puss
Quoting 549. FLwolverine:
Actually, they've been telling us the cure: stop smoking -- ie stop using fossil fuels. But implementing that cure in a meaningful way involves the political process - locally, nationally, internationally.

Not directed at you, StormPro, because I don't know you, but I suspect a lot of "deniers" are vehemently resisting any acceptance of AGW science because they are afraid they will have to give up a/c SUVs and the rest. The sad thing is if we don't do something about AGW, a lot of people will be giving up more than that.


Nice but I tricked you. It's easy to assume since I referenced smoking I may have been talking about lung or throat cancer. But what if it was brain cancer? What about people who get mesothelioma and have never been around asbestos? While smoking is proven to harm your health in numerous ways, I still smoke. And I have no history of lung cancer in my family. And they all smoked and died over the age of 94 on average of natural causes back 4 generations now. Do you get the comparison I'm making? Just because our planet has cancer doesn't mean we are the sole cause. But that being said we are not helping matters by bitching back and forth at each other about who is wrong or right. I would like to donate my blog space to a brainstorming group to try to come up with new and fresher ideas...something besides COAL SUCKS and Petroleum too lol.

And Naga and DJ, the carbon injections into the ground do have a side affect....possible deadly gases belching from the soil beneath your feet at any time .
Quoting 566. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
speaking of lemon how are ya today sour puss
I am doing fine, how about yourself? Great to see you today.

BTW:

Nice way of a MODERATOR to use NAME CALLING Which is against the RULES!
REPORTED
hope a good mod will see that
Lung cancer stopped in 1998! It's just a natural cycle!
That wave in the central atlantic needs to be watched, and could become a invest soon.
And how can you not see the NW movement of it, so it will be NO THREAT to land
Quoting 569. ScottLincoln:
Lung cancer stopped in 1998! It's just a natural cycle!


Seriously quit trolling for arguments, we've all gotten past most of the 8th grade behavior today. Just put me on ignore and I will converse with the grown ups
Quoting 565. junie1:
what a wonderfull day here in the usvi


Hi. You can visit my PR/U.SVI blog and post web cams and how the weather is where you are.
I have many cams posted and I would like to add that one.

Puerto Rico / U.SVI Weather blog
Superstorm if you are so mad with season why dont you just wait until 2014.
Quoting 560. JohnLonergan:


Incidentally, there is an interview with Stern in The Guardian this morning if you're interested.


Thanks for the link. Common sense to me - at least from the interview. And thanks for the link to the report. I'll read it with great interest.
I've been a lurker here for many years, probably well over a decade. Having grown up on the Texas coast, I've always had a fascination for severe weather and hurricanes. Even though I now live on the West Coast, I still maintain that fascination and enjoy the discussions on this site and the joint collaboration in understanding this weather.

However, the shift toward politicizing this blog definitely disturbs me and is reducing the daily value I get from coming here. Just a warning to Dr. Masters, keep it up and I will lose interest in visiting your blog that was supposed to concentrate on Tropical Weather as it's title says.

That being said, this is my position on the whole AGW debate. I don't think there is any argument that climate is changing. It always has and always will. The arguments seem to be focused on 2 things:

1. Is it human caused?
2. What can or should we do about it?

The first point I think is a pointless argument. Who cares if it is human caused? Are we trying to place blame? How is that helpful? Climate models are not proof no matter how strong their suggestions are. They are only as good as the data input and we don't have all the data that stretches over thousands of years. The models at best only suggest likelihoods of a possible future and there are so many unknowns that could throw these models off. The arguments about whether this is good or bad science or if it is human caused or not are pointless. Can scientists be motivated toward bias? Of course. Can that bias spread as consensus among a community? Of course it can! We've seen that happen historically across lots of topics. People in a community will come together to protect that community if threatened. Just because most of that community agrees doesn't make it absolute! The scientific community at one point beleive the world was flat! The only thing we should be concentrating on is the 2nd argument. And climate models can provide good guidance to acheive that

Now the 2nd argument is interesting. I think it is also pointless to try to create policy that will try to control or slow down the changes. This is a force I think we have little control over, even if you think humans caused it, we are likely past a point where we can control it effectively without huge compensating negative consequences in other places. I think the economic trade-off will be huge. Who wants to live in a world where we've delayed climate change but can't put food on the table or have given up our individual rights for the "betterment of the whole?" That's a bit hyperbolic but is intended to express a point.

As policy makers, we should be focusing instead on how we as humans can adapt to the change, not control it. We have adapted from cavemen to flying to the moon. I'm sure we can adapt here as well. If climate change means the coasts will flood, then policy needs to be developed to find ways to move people away from the coast. If climate change means more severe weather, then policy can be developed that encourages creation of weather resistant homes, etc.

Free enterprise is a very strong force for change. It doesn't have to be mandated by governments who are run by people who make mistakes, who aren't as smart as they think they are and who can be tempted by personal gain. The green industry today isn't where it is primarily due to government policy. It is where it is today because the demand for it has grown. Has it grown through education? Perhaps, but that is a good place to put money to influence change.

When the demand for weather resistant houses becomes strong enough, then someone will figure out how to meet that demand. Just like hybrid cars, solar panels, etc.

As humans, we can adapt. We always have and we always will. Will we lose some of us along the way? Perhaps, but that is just part of life. The earth will be fine and humans are smart enough to figure it out without having to result to policies that are sure to fail and have greater negative consequences than what they intended to fix in the first place.

Change is accelerating so fast in technology,what that means is 2 things:

1. We as humans will necessarily have to find ways to adapt quickly in an environment of continual change, so get used to it.

2. Technology advancements driven by demand coupled with smart policy will eventually result in solutions that will allow us to adapt.

Will technology eventually advance to a point where we can control the climate? Possibly, but I wouldn't count on it. And I wouldn't bet my future on it.

Now I will go back to lurking for another 15 years. :) Thanks
Joe
Quoting 567. StormPro:



And Naga and DJ, the carbon injections into the ground do have a side affect....possible deadly gases belching from the soil beneath your feet at any time .


That would be dependent upon the method of capturing.
‏@EricBlake12 23m
Hints in the models that we may be breaking our Atlc TC drought. i don't think I will believe it tho until I see the whites of their eyes:)
I just realized something why does it seem that you appear Superstorm when there is nothing going on ? Hmmmm
When the tropics get active your gone lol it appears so.
Quoting 568. SuperStorm093:
I am doing fine, how about yourself? Great to see you today.

BTW:

Nice way of a MODERATOR to use NAME CALLING Which is against the RULES!
REPORTED
hope a good mod will see that


Sometimes you have to call a spade a spade - and really "sour puss" is enough to inflame your outrage . . . sensitive for one who likes to throw stones.
Fim models are exciting over our Caribbean AOI.

FIM 08


FIM 07

Quoting Climate175:
That wave in the central atlantic needs to be watched, and could become a invest soon.
Hopefully so....
Quoting 581. StormTrackerScott:
Fim models are exciting over our Caribbean AOI.

But out to sea
Quoting 578. TropicalAnalystwx13:
‏@EricBlake12 23m
Hints in the models that we may be breaking our Atlc TC drought. i don't think I will believe it tho until I see the whites of their eyes:)


I am with him on that.
HPC has tropical moisture moving north into FL at days 6 thru 7.

At the rate this blog is going it will take a major hurricane threatening land to stop the bickering, name calling, and personal attacks. At least when we had Ingrid it wasn't so bad, but people are taking things way to personal on here. If you can't control yourself use the ignore button. Pretty straightforward and simple to me, but it just seems some find solace in entertaining to the trolls and the ones that come up with the smart remarks by coming up with ones of their own. It's silly, but I find it funny sometimes. Reminds me a little bit of when I used to blog over on ESPN, boy was that rough. :D
Quoting 576. weatherzealot:
I've been a lurker here for many years, probably well over a decade. Having grown up on the Texas coast, I've always had a fascination for severe weather and hurricanes. Even though I now live on the West Coast, I still maintain that fascination and enjoy the discussions on this site and the joint collaboration in understanding this weather.

However, the shift toward politicizing this blog definitely disturbs me and is reducing the daily value I get from coming here. Just a warning to Dr. Masters, keep it up and I will lose interest in visiting your blog that was supposed to concentrate on Tropical Weather as it's title says.
[Another two cents someone has about climate change science]

Dr. Masters has already made it clear that climate science is a topic that he intends to give more and more blog time to. I guess if you want to see that as politics, that's your deal, but he rarely discusses much about policy implications in his posts, mostly just about climate science and upcoming events where he will be posting on the topic. Sometimes the media sources he is interviewed by have been perceived to have a political slant, but that is a separate issue from the climate science he discusses in his posts.

Climate science will remain science regardless of whether or not you post in the comments sections of his blog. He will probably continue to post about what he intends to post about regardless of whether or not you post in the comments section of his blog.
Quoting 583. Climate175:
But out to sea
Oh yeah let me tell ya because Florida is way OTS. LOL
Quoting 586. GTstormChaserCaleb:
At the rate this blog is going it will take a major hurricane threatening land to stop the bickering, name calling, and personal attacks. At least when we had Ingrid it wasn't so bad, but people are taking things way to personal on here. If you can't control yourself use the ignore button. Pretty straightforward and simple to me, but it just seems some find solace in entertaining to the trolls and the ones that come up with the smart remarks by coming up with ones of their own. It's silly, but I find it funny sometimes. Reminds me a little bit of when I used to blog over on ESPN, boy was that rough. :D


the sports world is another whole arena..if you can blog on espn and represent your team without having your feelings hurt, you can master blogging at WU..
Quoting 568. SuperStorm093:
I am doing fine, how about yourself? Great to see you today.

BTW:

Nice way of a MODERATOR to use NAME CALLING Which is against the RULES!
REPORTED
hope a good mod will see that
sorry had to step out at work here I was not name calling ya give it a break funny guy you have been a sour puss the whole season
Quoting 590. ncstorm:


the sports world is another whole arena..if you can blog on espn and represent your team without having your feelings hurt, you can master blogging at WU..


This blog reminds me of grumpy old men with nothing better to do than sit on a blog and bicker.
594. Kyon5

Quoting 590. ncstorm:


the sports world is another whole arena..if you can blog on espn and represent your team without having your feelings hurt, you can master blogging at WU..


My feelings are never hurt here (even when called names and told I'm bad for America). The friendly and not so friendly internet people are not part of my life, save for a couple who I now share facebook with. :)

A thick skin is needed here, of course. Thanks for the conversation earlier, if you ever have any questions, please feel free to drop an email and I'll do my best to answer. Cheers.
upper level flow helping too enhance activity on the 10 percent seems like it may be doing some type of circle dance within itself there
Quoting 590. ncstorm:


the sports world is another whole arena..if you can blog on espn and represent your team without having your feelings hurt, you can master blogging at WU..
True, when mods weren't around people would trash the blogs there, anything Tebow, Manning, Lin, or LBJ would attract attention like a herd of hyenas. Thing is now ESPN turned it into Facebook discussion, so you have to use your Facebook profile or a fake one, no thanks! At least it is much more civil in here, except people do seem to have a very strong opinion on Global Warming at least of the regulars, whether you're for it or against it. But I do know who are the good ones here. And try to scroll past the disturbance in the force if you know what I mean.
Quoting 567. StormPro:


Nice but I tricked you. It's easy to assume since I referenced smoking I may have been talking about lung or throat cancer. But what if it was brain cancer? What about people who get mesothelioma and have never been around asbestos? While smoking is proven to harm your health in numerous ways, I still smoke. And I have no history of lung cancer in my family. And they all smoked and died over the age of 94 on average of natural causes back 4 generations now. Do you get the comparison I'm making? Just because our planet has cancer doesn't mean we are the sole cause. But that being said we are not helping matters by bitching back and forth at each other about who is wrong or right. I would like to donate my blog space to a brainstorming group to try to come up with new and fresher ideas...something besides COAL SUCKS and Petroleum too lol.

And Naga and DJ, the carbon injections into the ground do have a side affect....possible deadly gases belching from the soil beneath your feet at any time .
So I have some questions: if the doctor doesn't figure out what kind of cancer you have, how can she treat it effectively? Climate science says the primary cause of CC is human CO2 emissions. If you are saying that is not the primary cause, then what is? How can you talk about mitigation or adaptation if you're not clear on what you're trying to mitigate or adapt to? So basically: new and fresher ideas about what?

Last question: if you're not going to be straight with me (I tricked you), why should I talk to you at all?
599. flsky
Quoting 593. StormTrackerScott:


This blog reminds me of grumpy old men with nothing better to do than sit on a blog and bicker.


Hmmm, YOU seem to be on here most of the time....
Quoting 599. flsky:


Hmmm, YOU seem to be on here most of the time....


Nope just got on. I wish I had the luxury of blogging all day but the fact of the matter is I have to support my family and family/work comes first.
Quoting 593. StormTrackerScott:


This blog reminds me of grumpy old men with nothing better to do than sit on a blog and bicker.


I've always like the line the green hornet has caught more fish then ya lied about harry
Quoting 600. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Pretty good consensus there as the Euro has this disturbance in that same area at 168hrs.
I'm surprised I haven't gotten cookhoo yet from posting all these FIM models.
605. flsky
Quoting 601. StormTrackerScott:


Nope just got on. I wish I had the luxury of blogging all day but the fact of the matter is I have to support my family and family/work comes first.

All a matter of perception then?
Quoting 603. StormTrackerScott:


Pretty good consensus there as the Euro has this disturbance in that same area at 168hrs.
Sounds about right.



The GFS is trying to spin it up.

fyi: Images posted on the Guardian today

Hurricane season: extreme weather in the US – in pictures

Link

take care.
Quoting 600. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Sharp wave axis and TS winds in the central ATL as well
Quoting 593. StormTrackerScott:


This blog reminds me of grumpy old men with nothing better to do than sit on a blog and bicker.


Now Scott, not all of us are old or men..:)
Quoting 583. Climate175:
But out to sea
How can a Caribbean AOI be out to sea ? If it is in the Caribbean it has to affect some landmass.
Global Warming???
Ummm.... This just in:


September 26, 2013
Ryan Pfeil
By Ryan Pfeil
Mail Tribune

CRATER LAKE — Crater Lake received a record-smashing 8 inches of snow in 24 hours Tuesday into Wednesday, the National Weather Service reported.

More than one month ahead of schedule, the frosty blanket made its earliest appearance since 1986, when snow fell a week earlier on Sept. 18. Before that, the earliest appearance of a winter wonderland at Crater Lake was Sept. 24, 1948.

"It looks like there were sharply higher values of snowfall above 6,000 feet," said meteorologist Shad Keene. "Crater Lake tends to get the brunt of all the precipitation, so the chance of them exceeding a forecast is higher than in most places. It'll really come down."

At elevations 6,000 feet and below, there was anywhere from 1 to 3 inches.

"The higher elevations definitely got more than we expected," Keene said.


Just saying....
Quoting 588. ScottLincoln:

Dr. Masters has already made it clear that climate science is a topic that he intends to give more and more blog time to. I guess if you want to see that as politics, that's your deal, but he rarely discusses much about policy implications in his posts, mostly just about climate science and upcoming events where he will be posting on the topic. Sometimes the media sources he is interviewed by have been perceived to have a political slant, but that is a separate issue from the climate science he discusses in his posts.

Climate science will remain science regardless of whether or not you post in the comments sections of his blog. He will probably continue to post about what he intends to post about regardless of whether or not you post in the comments section of his blog.


And why will he give more and more time on this topic on a Hurricane/Tropical blog? Because he needs clicks. It's real simple. He could have posted a blog today stating that the topics are quiet and he does not expect development over the next 7 days. The blog would be dead. Look what today's post has done to the blog. It's business and every time we click, he wins.
The area of disturbed weather is interacting with an upper-level low to its northwest. Any development over the few days will be slow, if any. I personally doubt it does anything. Otherwise in the Atlantic...zzzzzzz.
Quoting 609. ncstorm:


Now Scott, not all of us are old or men..:)
Old maybe,......Men not
Quoting 514. junie1:
This has to be one of the biggest disturbances ive ever seen


and it won't bring me a single drop because it wants to go fishing :(
Quoting 478. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That's a tough one, Boldin is going up against Revis, and Sproles against that underrated Dolphins defense, but I would go with Boldin, receivers usually have the leg up on running backs in fantasy, since this a pass first league.


What? Lol Boldin plays for the 49'ers... and they play the Rams tonight.

Revis is in Tampa Bay.

Regardless, Boldin is a must start, even though i pray Frank Gore gets 2 touchdowns tonight.
Quoting 613. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The area of disturbed weather is interacting with an upper-level low to its northwest. Any development over the few days will be slow, if any. I personally doubt it does anything. Otherwise in the Atlantic...zzzzzzz.


North of Panama has to be watched.
Quoting 611. GulfPilot:
Global Warming???
Ummm.... This just in:


September 26, 2013
Ryan Pfeil
By Ryan Pfeil
Mail Tribune

CRATER LAKE %u2014 Crater Lake received a record-smashing 8 inches of snow in 24 hours Tuesday into Wednesday, the National Weather Service reported.

More than one month ahead of schedule, the frosty blanket made its earliest appearance since 1986, when snow fell a week earlier on Sept. 18. Before that, the earliest appearance of a winter wonderland at Crater Lake was Sept. 24, 1948.

"It looks like there were sharply higher values of snowfall above 6,000 feet," said meteorologist Shad Keene. "Crater Lake tends to get the brunt of all the precipitation, so the chance of them exceeding a forecast is higher than in most places. It'll really come down."

At elevations 6,000 feet and below, there was anywhere from 1 to 3 inches.

"The higher elevations definitely got more than we expected," Keene said.


Just saying....


From what you've posted it sounds like Crater Lake gets snow in mid-September approximately once every 30-40 years. Interesting.
Quoting 565. junie1:
what a wonderfull day here in the usvi


same for us :-) but it would be way more enjoyable if the catl wave was supposed to come our way
I really thought this would bring us a relief.... BUT NOT AT ALL! OF COURSE

Quoting 607. docrod:
fyi: Images posted on the Guardian today

Hurricane season: extreme weather in the US – in pictures

Link

take care.


Wow, really worth a look! Thank you for sharing.
Quoting 617. Tropicsweatherpr:


North of Panama has to be watched.

Maybe, but probably not. Models aren't enthusiastic.
Quoting 616. Thrawst:


What? Lol Boldin plays for the 49'ers... and they play the Rams tonight.

Revis is in Tampa Bay.

Regardless, Boldin is a must start, even though i pray Frank Gore gets 2 touchdowns tonight.
Yeah, thanks I noticed that earlier, when I posted I was thinking Boldin's days with the Cardinals which are long over.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WILL BE SUNDAY...
WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST.
MODELS SHOWS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

In other words, this means a short 2 min shower and that's it. 0.1 inch and that's it.
Sigh... sorry guys I'm very angry against the weather now.
Anything heading N from Carib would certainly post threat to fl.
626. flsky
Quoting 612. luvtogolf:


And why will he give more and more time on this topic on a Hurricane/Tropical blog? Because he needs clicks. It's real simple. He could have posted a blog today stating that the topics are quiet and he does not expect development over the next 7 days. The blog would be dead. Look what today's post has done to the blog. It's business and every time we click, he wins.


At some point, it would be interesting to take a count of all the conspiracy theorists on this blog. (Actually, it would be kind of sad....)
Quoting 622. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe, but probably not. Models aren't enthusiastic.


FIM is active with Caribbean.

Quoting 625. hurricane23:
Anything heading N from Carib would certainly post threat to fl.


Yes, from the Western Caribbean. Still a lot of heat in the NW Caribbean.
Quoting 576. weatherzealot:

.... As policy makers, we should be focusing instead on how we as humans can adapt to the change, not control it. We have adapted from cavemen to flying to the moon. I'm sure we can adapt here as well.


Now I will go back to lurking for another 15 years. :) Thanks
Joe

The problem with this idea is that you've got about five billion souls on earth who are living hand to mouth, right now. We're high maintenance biology, especially en masse.

It doesn't take much climate change to kill a lot of people. More than we could ever begin to bury.

We could easily loose a few hundred million, if there was even a minor glitch in the food chain.

How many days of food do you have in your house in Texas? I bet you don't have two weeks worth. Which means you're in constant danger, and you don't even know it.

You don't have 15 years. You've got about about 15 days, before your neighbors start looking to make a meal out of you. Living in Texas, I bet they're well armed too.

" With food consumption exceeding the amount grown for six of the past 11 years, countries have run down reserves from an average of 107 days of consumption 10 years ago to under 74 days recently." - UN warns of looming worldwide food crisis in 2013 - October 13, 2013
Quoting 628. clwstmchasr:


Yes, from the Western Caribbean. Still a lot of heat in the NW Caribbean.


& the Gulf. Remember it's still September so there is plenty of ocean heat to go around. We just need to get a system going though and one that doesn't slam into Mexico like the Euro is showing with our Caribbean disturbance as it moves it NW into Cozumel then NE from there to the FL Big Bend. Also the models that develope the Caribbean AOI also weaken it once in the Gulf due to high shear.
Quoting 624. CaribBoy:
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WILL BE SUNDAY...
WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST.
MODELS SHOWS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

In other words, this means a short 2 min shower and that's it. 0.1 inch and that's it.
Sigh... sorry guys I'm very angry against the weather now.


I hear cactus make's a great garden addition and they come in bright colour and thrive with little rain

18Z Nam
Quoting 628. clwstmchasr:


Yes, from the Western Caribbean. Still a lot of heat in the NW Caribbean.


Always heat there.. Based on flow aloft
Quoting 627. Tropicsweatherpr:


FIM is active with Caribbean.


And the FIM sails in the same boat as the CMC and NOGAPS. :)
Quoting 629. OracleDeAtlantis:

The problem with this idea is that you've got about five billion souls on earth who are living hand to mouth right now.

It doesn't take much climate change to kill a lot of people. More than we could ever begin to bury.

We could easily loose a few hundred million if there was even a minor glitch in the food chain.


Oh, somebody gets it. It's not that we'll have massive sea level rise in a thousand years, but we'll have a few inches in a few decades, and a few inches is enough to make certain cities untenable. Not uninhabitable, untenable. With millions of people looking for somewhere else to live, there will be millions upon millions of refugees who have no rights, jobs, food or shelter.

Civil unrest has already started. The so-called Arab-spring was actually what came after the Arab fall the previous year when wheat prices rose dramatically.

Global warming is causing excess deaths, and the number will continue. Unless there is someone to notice the missing, these go unreported.

You could have saved us all a little reading...let me fix that for you.

GulfPilot:
I don't understand the difference between climate and weather.

fin.


Quoting 611. GulfPilot:
Global Warming???
Ummm.... This just in:
...(abbreviated)...
Just saying....
Quoting CaribBoy:
I really thought this would bring us a relief.... BUT NOT AT ALL! OF COURSE

While last week everything was heading west even south west, this one is going NW... not much hope for those hoping for rain on the northern Leewards...but who knows keep fingers cross...
Quoting 611. GulfPilot:
Global Warming???
Ummm.... This just in:


September 26, 2013
Ryan Pfeil
By Ryan Pfeil
Mail Tribune

CRATER LAKE %u2014 Crater Lake received a record-smashing 8 inches of snow in 24 hours Tuesday into Wednesday, the National Weather Service reported.

More than one month ahead of schedule, the frosty blanket made its earliest appearance since 1986, when snow fell a week earlier on Sept. 18. Before that, the earliest appearance of a winter wonderland at Crater Lake was Sept. 24, 1948.

"It looks like there were sharply higher values of snowfall above 6,000 feet," said meteorologist Shad Keene. "Crater Lake tends to get the brunt of all the precipitation, so the chance of them exceeding a forecast is higher than in most places. It'll really come down."

At elevations 6,000 feet and below, there was anywhere from 1 to 3 inches.

"The higher elevations definitely got more than we expected," Keene said.


Just saying....


Crater Lake has had much earlier snowfalls. (click daily summary stats on lower left)

1.0" on July 16-17 1986
1.0" on July 18 1987
4.5" on August 15-16, 1976
6.5" on September 6, 1927
6.0" on September 9-10, 1985
6.0" on September 13-14, 1936
5.5" on September 15-16 2006
8.0" on September 24, 1948
18.0" on September 17-18 1986
28.0" on September 25-26 1986

The snow this week was not unprecedented or record breaking at all.
Quoting 626. flsky:


At some point, it would be interesting to take a count of all the conspiracy theorists on this blog. (Actually, it would be kind of sad....)


Especially odd are the folks who make regular, daily comments on this blog despite seeming to absolutely abhor the blog, the author of the blog, the science behind what he posts, and the people who come here to share their thoughts about that science.

I mean, really... there are numerous other places to go in this vast virtual world of ours if you are sick of hearing about climate science. But to take time out of your short life to come here EVERY DAY and admonish the blog author and commentators strikes me as... well, as a waste of time.
Quoting 624. CaribBoy:
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WILL BE SUNDAY...
WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST.
MODELS SHOWS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

In other words, this means a short 2 min shower and that's it. 0.1 inch and that's it.
Sigh... sorry guys I'm very angry against the weather now.






its called adapting too your new climate
Quoting 640. MrMixon:


Especially odd are the folks who make regular, daily comments on this blog despite seeming to absolutely abhor the blog, the author of the blog, the science behind what he posts, and the people who come here to share their thoughts about that science.

I mean, really... there are numerous other places to go in this vast virtual world of ours if you are sick of hearing about climate science. But to take time out of your short life to come here EVERY DAY and admonish the blog author and commentators strikes me as... well, as a waste of time.


I agree...
caught in st pete lake..13'9 ft..770 lbs...wow
It also snowed 7.3" at Crater Lake on July 2-3 1966. That is the earliest. Qualifies as a winter wonderland to me.
Quoting 639. DonnieBwkGA:


Crater Lake has had much earlier snowfalls. (click daily summary stats on lower left)

1.0" on July 16-17 1986
1.0" on July 18 1987
4.5" on August 15-16, 1976
6.5" on September 6, 1927
6.0" on September 9-10, 1985
6.0" on September 13-14, 1936
5.5" on September 15-16 2006
8.0" on September 24, 1948
18.0" on September 17-18 1986
28.0" on September 25-26 1986

The snow this week was not unprecedented or record breaking at all.


The post makes no reference to unprecedented or record breaking. Then why did you?
Quoting 601. StormTrackerScott:


Nope just got on. I wish I had the luxury of blogging all day but the fact of the matter is I have to support my family and family/work comes first.


So someone was impersonating you at 9:05am this morning and again at 2:22pm ? Interesting. LOL
Quoting 611. GulfPilot:
Global Warming???
Ummm.... This just in:


September 26, 2013
Ryan Pfeil
By Ryan Pfeil
Mail Tribune

CRATER LAKE — Crater Lake received a record-smashing 8 inches of snow in 24 hours Tuesday into Wednesday, the National Weather Service reported.

More than one month ahead of schedule, the frosty blanket made its earliest appearance since 1986, when snow fell a week earlier on Sept. 18. Before that, the earliest appearance of a winter wonderland at Crater Lake was Sept. 24, 1948.

"It looks like there were sharply higher values of snowfall above 6,000 feet," said meteorologist Shad Keene. "Crater Lake tends to get the brunt of all the precipitation, so the chance of them exceeding a forecast is higher than in most places. It'll really come down."

At elevations 6,000 feet and below, there was anywhere from 1 to 3 inches.

"The higher elevations definitely got more than we expected," Keene said.


Just saying....


Quoting again for the benefit of luvtogolf. You're wrong.
648. JRRP
Third in a continuing series:
Quoting 507:
The agenda is power and control all the money is flowing to politicians and green big business and big wall street as govt pumps billions of dollars to elite people who will tell us how to live.gr een is going to be green with all your money lining big govt bosses.Most on this site involed with environmentalism will be well taken care of those that don't agree no luck.Maybe you can be like ALGORE and fly around and make millions of dollars telling us not to heat our houses and use laterns for light.Me I have to work and my job includes burning a lot of gas,of course if you take this away maybe I can just live off you guys and all that green govt money they print every month.I predict if these policies are followed the global economy will be destroyed and chaos will reign!
Contrarian buzzword/buzzterm summary:

"Power and control"
"Green big business"
"Elite people"
"Big govt
"ALGORE"
"Make millions of dollars telling us not to heat our houses"
"Green govt money"
"The global economy will be destroyed"
Quoting 611:
Global Warming???
Ummm.... This just in:


September 26, 2013
Ryan Pfeil
By Ryan Pfeil
Mail Tribune

CRATER LAKE — Crater Lake received a record-smashing 8 inches of snow in 24 hours Tuesday into Wednesday, the National Weather Service reported.

More than one month ahead of schedule, the frosty blanket made its earliest appearance since 1986, when snow fell a week earlier on Sept. 18. Before that, the earliest appearance of a winter wonderland at Crater Lake was Sept. 24, 1948.

"It looks like there were sharply higher values of snowfall above 6,000 feet," said meteorologist Shad Keene. "Crater Lake tends to get the brunt of all the precipitation, so the chance of them exceeding a forecast is higher than in most places. It'll really come down."

At elevations 6,000 feet and below, there was anywhere from 1 to 3 inches.

"The higher elevations definitely got more than we expected," Keene said.


Just saying....
Contrarian buzzword/buzzterm summary:

"Global Warming???"
"It's snowing in autumn atop a mountain that averages more than 500 inches of it a year, therefore the planet isn't warming" (paraphrased)
Quoting 644. DonnieBwkGA:
It also snowed 7.3" at Crater Lake on July 2-3 1966. That is the earliest. Qualifies as a winter wonderland to me.

Qualifies as an extra hour or two to sleep in, on a week day, for me. :P
Quoting 645. luvtogolf:


The post makes no reference to unprecedented or record breaking. Then why did you?
Umm...
Quoting 611:
Global Warming???
Ummm.... This just in:


September 26, 2013
Ryan Pfeil
By Ryan Pfeil
Mail Tribune

CRATER LAKE — Crater Lake received a record-smashing 8 inches of snow in 24 hours Tuesday into Wednesday, the National Weather Service reported.
Quoting 641. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






its called adapting too your new climate
HaHa now thats funny Poor Cariboy Rain shall come my friend
This is from CWG.I think people should take this advise and perhaps a more civil debate would be at hand and not name calling..

From CWG
Deep-six the term "denier" and abandon "alarmist". Let's get "warmist" out of the way, too
Link
Jason-CapitalWeatherGang
4:36 PM EDT
Very few people actually "deny" climate change to some degree... they might be unconvinced human are playing the dominant role - maybe just a small role, they might be convinced it's manmade but unconvinced it poses a big threat, they might be unconvinced we can't adapt to i, they might not be convinced there are other problems more serious than it... the term "denier" is being used to trivialize their perspective...and put them into a camp, without fully understanding where they're coming from. i've debated enough people with different views on climate change to understand this
Quoting 650. wxchaser97:

Qualifies as an extra hour or two to sleep in, on a week day, for me. :P


Maybe more if you were taking summer school and they had the plows put away in storage for July ;)
Quoting 631. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I hear cactus make's a great garden addition and they come in bright colour and thrive with little rain

Ahahaha Keep.
Checking the Platte River

Overton, NE



Kearney, NE



Grand Island, NE



Duncan, NE

657. VR46L
That central Atlantic disturbance is huge. I wonder how much rain is falling in it.
Quoting 658. DonnieBwkGA:
That central Atlantic disturbance is huge. I wonder how much rain is falling in it.
A foot an hour.
Is the blob in the Central Atlantic anything?
Quoting 659. GTstormChaserCaleb:
A foot an hour.


That's all? ;)
Quoting 643. LargoFl:
caught in st pete lake..13'9 ft..770 lbs...wow
Very Nice.
663. VR46L
Quoting 653. washingtonian115:
This is from CWG.I think people should take this advise and perhaps a more civil debate would be at hand and not name calling..

From CWG
Deep-six the term "denier" and abandon "alarmist". Let's get "warmist" out of the way, too
Link
Jason-CapitalWeatherGang
4:36 PM EDT
Very few people actually "deny" climate change to some degree... they might be unconvinced human are playing the dominant role - maybe just a small role, they might be convinced it's manmade but unconvinced it poses a big threat, they might be unconvinced we can't adapt to i, they might not be convinced there are other problems more serious than it... the term "denier" is being used to trivialize their perspective...and put them into a camp, without fully understanding where they're coming from. i've debated enough people with different views on climate change to understand this


Thank you for posting that Wash ... Sad ain't it people are happier to stick labels and dehumanise than try and reach consensus and middle ground .
664. SLU
Big in size, small in surprise.

Quoting 651. Neapolitan:
Umm...
Nea says "Umm" and he gets 2 likes?... Go figure
Simon Donner on

The pause in public understanding of climate change

The Fifth IPCC assessment report on the physical science of climate change will be released tomorrow. It is probably the largest, most comprehensive scientific assessment in history. Not just of climate change, but of any scientific subject. Really. Try to think of any scientific report with more contributors, more citations, more reviewers, more pages, and more preparation time.

Unfortunately, the report is being overshadowed by confusion about a perceived slowdown in the rate of global warming. The graph below, is based on the GISS estimates of global average surface temperatures since the early 1970s. There is a clear signal of rising temperatures amidst the noise of natural variability.



The slowdown in surface temperature change is part of that natural variability. The planet is still gaining extra heat due to human enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect. As Stephan Rahmstorf summarized nicely on RealClimate, the difference is that over the past decade or so, a larger proportion of that heat than normal has gone into the deep ocean. In a few years, the yin of deep ocean heating will give way to the yang of surface temperature warming. When conditions in the Pacific Ocean again allow the development of a strong, traditional El Nino event - a la 1997/8, or 1982/3 - we'll see new global surface temperature records. We should not mistake a landing for the top of the stairwell, as Richard Muller wisely analogized at the end of an article that otherwise is so obtuse I'm reluctant to give it mention here.

The media noise surrounding the perceived slowdown is part of the natural variability of public understanding of climate change. Our research has shown that public attitudes about climate change in the United States ebb and flow with the climate. After a cool period, people tend to be less convinced and less concerned about climate change.

It's worth imagining different labels on the axes of the temperature graph. The public conversation about climate warming follows a similarly noisy trajectory. There is a long-term trend towards greater public understanding, better reporting, and better informed discussion at the political level. There is also variability, due to the natural ups and downs of the climate, current events, etc.



This is the natural process of knowledge acquisition. We're learning more about more about how the planet works over time. The path, however, is not smooth. There are also periods when the knowledge in the scientific community or the public barely changes, or even goes in the wrong direction before jumping back onto an upward trajectory. There is plenty of evidence for brief periods of "negative learning" in the recent history, including scientific understanding of the causes of ozone destruction.

Years from now, we'll look back at this temporary slowdown in the rate of surface temperature warming and shake our heads. This is a temporary landing in the middle of the stairwell of rising air temperatures and rising public acceptance of the magnitude of the human role in climate change.
Quoting 664. SLU:
Big in size, small in surprise.

Iv'e said that
Quoting 663. VR46L:


Thank you for posting that Wash ... Sad ain't it people are happier to stick labels and dehumanise than try and reach consensus and middle ground .


What's the consensus and middle ground here?
Quoting 663. VR46L:


Thank you for posting that Wash ... Sad ain't it people are happier to stick labels and dehumanise than try and reach consensus and middle ground .
But there is no "middle ground". If I make the scientifically valid claim that the planet is warming due to greenhouse gases from fossil fuels, and someone responds back by stating that the planet is cooling, an obvious "middle ground" would be to claim that the climate isn't changing at all. That is, of course, nowhere close to true; such compromising, then, is false balance at its most dangerous.
Quoting 669. Neapolitan:
But there is no "middle ground". If I make the scientifically valid claim that the planet is warming due to greenhouse gases from fossil fuels, and someone responds back by stating that the planet is cooling, an obvious "middle ground" would be to claim that the climate isn't changing at all. That is, of course, nowhere close to true; such compromising, then, is false balance at its most dangerous.
God has spoken...or at least he(or she) thinks he has
671. SLU
September 2013 is officially the worst September I've experienced in terms of uninteresting weather and a lack of TC development since I started weather watching in 1994.

I'll never understand the blog's unhealthy obsession with Neapolitan. :)
Quoting 672. Naga5000:
I'll never understand the blog's unhealthy obsession with Neapolitan. :)
Give it a few years Naga...
Quoting 672. Naga5000:
I'll never understand the blog's unhealthy obsession with Neapolitan. :)


Jealousy?
Quoting 674. JohnLonergan:


Jealousy?
Oh hell no
Quoting 665. PalmBeachWeather:
Nea says "Umm" and he gets 2 likes?... Go figure


It was subtle, but a careful observer will note that he did make a valid point in that minimal post (read the quoted comments carefully and note the bolded text).
Ego

Freud was correct seems.

Fresca ?


I'm in da orange,'

Quoting 631. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I hear cactus make's a great garden addition and they come in bright colour and thrive with little rain



There are lots of them islandwide. Some are pretty, indeed, and don't need copious rains.
Quoting 638. HuracanTaino:
While last week everything was heading west even south west, this one is going NW... not much hope for those hoping for rain on the northern Leewards...but who knows keep fingers cross...


Yes, and that's sad.
Quoting 641. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






its called adapting too your new climate


Nice XD
Quoting 652. junie1:
HaHa now thats funny Poor Cariboy Rain shall come my friend


I hope lol... maybe someday...
Quoting 672. Naga5000:
I'll never understand the blog's unhealthy obsession with Neapolitan. :)


Very unhealthy. It make a lot of people puke on here.
Quoting 658. DonnieBwkGA:
That central Atlantic disturbance is huge. I wonder how much rain is falling in it.


All the rain I need.
Quoting 682. luvtogolf:


Very unhealthy. It make a lot of people puke on here.
I try not to puke... But sometimes I can't help myself
Quoting 678. CaribBoy:


There are lots of them islandwide. Some are pretty, indeed, and don't need copious rains.


Which island are you on?
Quoting 664. SLU:
Big in size, small in surprise.



And not heading our way (facepalm)
Quoting 682. luvtogolf:


Very unhealthy. It make a lot of people puke on here.

I guess the truth both hurts and is sickening.
Quoting 685. DonnieBwkGA:


Which island are you on?


St Barths, in the very dry Northern Lesser Antilles. Sigh... (lol)
Quoting 678. CaribBoy:


There are lots of them islandwide. Some are pretty, indeed, and don't need copious rains.
Bromeliads are beautiful also, and easy to take care of...


From PAGASA Twitter...

24-HOUR PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST
Issued at: 5:00AM 27 September 2013

A Low Pressure Area was estimated based on all available data at 980 km east of northern Mindanao (9.5ºN 136.0ºE).
Quoting 688. CaribBoy:


St Barths, in the very dry Northern Lesser Antilles. Sigh... (lol)


Never been. I bet it is beautiful!
692. VR46L
Quoting 672. Naga5000:
I'll never understand the blog's unhealthy obsession with Neapolitan. :)


Is that not Captaintainers Job......

BTW I wish some of you guys would realise the Name calling and aggression shown means less of the I don't knows will listen.... Shrug
Quoting CaribBoy:


All the rain I need.

Enjoy it !
Dry as a bone here in Trini.
Ground is Hard and trees are losing leaves.

It's very strange for a September, when it's usually mud everywhere and daily downpours.
Quoting 691. DonnieBwkGA:


Never been. I bet it is beautiful!


It is :) especially during the rainy season when everything is green and lush ;) But this year is drier.
Quoting 693. pottery:

Enjoy it !
Dry as a bone here in Trini.
Ground is Hard and trees are losing leaves.

It's very strange for a September, when it's usually mud everywhere and daily downpours.
Always hated dry bones pottery
Quoting 676. MrMixon:


It was subtle, but a careful observer will note that he did make a valid point in that minimal post (read the quoted comments carefully and note the bolded text).


And he got more likes for that than I did four comments earlier. I'm crushed. ;)
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Always hated dry bones pottery

Well, yeah. But you could always soak them in something.....

:):))
Quoting 611. GulfPilot:
Global Warming???
Ummm.... This just in:

[Insert weather event here that disproves everything]

Just saying....


Sigh...
Quoting 697. pottery:

Well, yeah. But you could always soak them in something.....

:):))
I will give it a try....Tonight
Quoting 692. VR46L:


Is that not Captaintainers Job......

BTW I wish some of you guys would realise the Name calling and aggression shown means less of the I don't knows will listen.... Shrug


I have very rarely used the "denier" term. As for aggressiveness, I believe that is purely subjective. Most of the time I post something my attitude is somewhere between "I hope they understand this, but I doubt it" and "Seriously?!?"
Quoting 693. pottery:

Enjoy it !
Dry as a bone here in Trini.
Ground is Hard and trees are losing leaves.

It's very strange for a September, when it's usually mud everywhere and daily downpours.


I won't have that chance though, because the wave is heading NW and will miss us.

It looks like all the islands of the Lesser Antilles are sailing within the same boat now. Dry weather is widespread, which is highly abnormal.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I will give it a try....Tonight


Cheers !

Hoping to get some showers from that 10% blob east of here.
Looks to be swinging north, and may drag some moisture up from the Spanish Main on Sat, Sun, Mon.

I hope so, anyway.
Quoting 639. DonnieBwkGA:


Crater Lake has had much earlier snowfalls. (click daily summary stats on lower left)

1.0" on July 16-17 1986
1.0" on July 18 1987
4.5" on August 15-16, 1976
6.5" on September 6, 1927
6.0" on September 9-10, 1985
6.0" on September 13-14, 1936
5.5" on September 15-16 2006
8.0" on September 24, 1948
18.0" on September 17-18 1986
28.0" on September 25-26 1986

The snow this week was not unprecedented or record breaking at all.

Thank you for actually doing the work that someone else should have done.
Anyways, I'm off to darts and drinks. Later WU, behave! :)
Quoting 704. Naga5000:
Anyways, I'm off to darts and drinks. Later WU, behave! :)
Good luck with the Bulls Eye
Quoting 615. CaribBoy:


and it won't bring me a single drop because it wants to go fishing :(


$247.50 in the rain fund!
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


LOLOL, thanks !
Quoting 707. HurricaneHunterJoe:


$247.50 in the rain fund!


Lol if only I could buy the rain XD !!!

Seriously I would buy it!
Quoting 704. Naga5000:
Anyways, I'm off to darts and drinks. Later WU, behave! :)

Hopefully in that order. Doing the latter first could make the former pretty difficult. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hopefully in that order. Doing the latter first could make the former pretty difficult. :)


But more fun, Shirley.
The first Fall "cool air mass" has arrived in the wake of the first Fall front, and let me tell you, after a long hot summer, low 80's for highs and low 60's at night with drier air might now sound like a big change or very cool, but it feels refreshingly cool to the system after a long hot Florida summer :)

I think there is something to enjoy all the seasons, especially in the deep south because we still experience season change and significantly cooler weather even in Fl
Florida contrary to chamber of commerce, its just much more moderate and more refreshingly cool as apposed to brutal cold of the north :)
Staying home tonight....Hope there is a new "Duck Dynasty " on... Now that is real TV
Quoting 711. pottery:


But more fun, Shirley.
Please don't call me Shirley... Just a joke
Quoting 580. daddyjames:


Sometimes you have to call a spade a spade - and really "sour puss" is enough to inflame your outrage . . . sensitive for one who likes to throw stones.

I feel like an old sourpuss today. Yesterday I felt like a big meanie. Tomorrow ... who knows?
You lose weight?

Edit: boy, that was quick.
Quoting 610. stormwatcherCI:
How can a Caribbean AOI be out to sea ? If it is in the Caribbean it has to affect some landmass.
Ooops my mistake but dont call be a troll i was not trolling
Quoting 717. bappit:
You lose weight?


Are we all supposed to respond? Or is this directed to someone in particular?
Quoting 719. daddyjames:


Are we all supposed to respond? Or is this directed to someone in particular?

The post I responded to got deleted.

Edit: just thought a little levity would cheer the place up a bit. My impression of the poster I responded to is that she would not have been offended by my remark. There was no intention of that.
Quoting 720. bappit:

The post I responded to got deleted.


Ahh, ok.
Quoting 719. daddyjames:


Are we all supposed to respond? Or is this directed to someone in particular?
The Mods are really fast today!
Quoting 589. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh yeah let me tell ya because Florida is way OTS. LOL
Yeah make fun of me because of my mistake ....
Present
invest 95W doing great!!
Abbey Road was released 44 years ago today.

Lawdy,..

Oh Dawling, please believe me, I'll never let you down'

Global Climate Change Indicators

Introduction Warming Climate Human Influence

More Information

Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
727. SLU
Bone dry weather from Trinidad in the south to St. Barts in the north in the middle of September. A tough dry season looms large. :(


Red = drought.
Yellow = much below average.

@726 I doubt something like that web page could not be posted by a government office in Canada. The thought controllers won't allow it.
729. SLU
Fool's gold.

October 12th.

Q: What are some of the weaknesses of the IPCC report?
1) The report is already out-of-date, since papers had to be submitted for publication by July 2012 and published by March 2013 in order to be cited.

2) The report is tedious, complex, and difficult to read, making this vital science difficult to access. Little regard was given by the IPCC to communicating the results of the report. Science has little value if it is not understandably communicated to those who need the information. Where are the accompanying explanatory videos? Why was the report issued on a Friday, the worst day of the work week to get attention? The IPCC has devoted a very small portion of its budget to communication and outreach, leaving the interpretation of the report to others. I can understand the reluctance of the IPCC to provide a more slick and showy interpretation of the report, since they might be accused of "spinning" the science, and one of the great strengths of the IPCC report is its great science and the impartiality of the content. But the assumption that the science will speak for itself is wrong. The most powerful and richest corporations in world history--the oil companies--are waging very well-funded PR campaigns to deny the science, play up the uncertainties, and question the character of the scientists who write the report. The world's most rigorous and important scientific report in history is being kicked apart by powerful special interests whose profits are threatened by the findings.

3) Since the "Summary for Policymakers" is subject to unanimous approval by politicians, the science is potentially compromised, and the conclusions will tend to be conservative. Naomi Oreskes, in Chapter Six of her book, "Merchants of Doubt", recounts the haggling that led up to the approval of the 1995 Summary for Policy Makers. Government delegates for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other major oil exporting nations demanded a change to the statement the scientists had drafted, "The balance of evidence suggests an appreciable human influence on climate." For two whole days, the scientists haggled with the Saudi delegate over the single word "appreciable". Nearly 30 different alternatives were discussed before IPCC chair Bert Bolin finally found a word that both sides could accept: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on climate." The term "discernible" established a middle ground by suggesting that human-caused climate change was detectable, but the level of that influence was subject to debate. This sentence would go on to become one the most famous scientific statements ever made about climate change, but it was more conservative than what the scientists wanted.

4) The lower-end emissions scenario, called RCP2.6, which assumes that CO2 concentrations will reach 421 ppm by the year 2100, is highly unlikely. Earth reached 400 ppm of CO2 earlier this year, and CO2 has increased by over 2 ppm per year during the past decade. CO2 emissions are accelerating, and CO2 levels will surpass 421 ppm by the year 2023 at the current rate of acceleration. RCP2.6 requires that we slash emissions of CO2 by 50%, relative to 1990 levels, by 2050. We are currently on a pace to match or exceed the worst-case scenario considered by the IPCC (RCP8.5), where CO2 levels reach 936 ppm by the year 2100.
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/new-b lockbuster-ipcc-climate-report-comprehensive-autho ritative-con#LrYzYKLBzk35FgCd.99
Quoting 670. PalmBeachWeather:
God has spoken...or at least he(or she) thinks he has
Guess it's true: ........ A woman scorned......
Guys, why bother waiting for the IPCC report when we already know the answer?!! The Earth is going to cool steadily over the next 100 years due to SWGC or (Santas Workshop Global Cooling).

Basically, Santa is tired of the winters getting gradually warmer on a mean scale because its hurting the Christmas spirit(remember pretend the southern hemisphere doesn't exist) so hes created a secret formula for cooling the earth.

Word has it that the secret formula is spread through contrails...

I have inside scoop to this though because I've seen the contrails with my own eyes and I saw an elf making a deal with a jet company.

Want proof? I know its true because the ozone hole was caused by air sols and Santa's formula uses air sols. He didn't mean to hurt the planet its just his prototype wasn't designed properly so it put a hole in the ozone layer, he has since made a software patch to correct the error.
Quoting 692. VR46L:


Is that not Captaintainers Job......

BTW I wish some of you guys would realise the Name calling and aggression shown means less of the I don't knows will listen.... Shrug
Yeah, except that it looks like most of those who say "I don't know" on here have already decided not to listen anyway.
Quoting 653. washingtonian115:
This is from CWG.I think people should take this advise and perhaps a more civil debate would be at hand and not name calling..

From CWG
Deep-six the term "denier" and abandon "alarmist". Let's get "warmist" out of the way, too
Link
Jason-CapitalWeatherGang
4:36 PM EDT
Very few people actually "deny" climate change to some degree... they might be unconvinced human are playing the dominant role - maybe just a small role, they might be convinced it's manmade but unconvinced it poses a big threat, they might be unconvinced we can't adapt to i, they might not be convinced there are other problems more serious than it... the term "denier" is being used to trivialize their perspective...and put them into a camp, without fully understanding where they're coming from. i've debated enough people with different views on climate change to understand this

The Difference Between Skeptics And Climate Deniers

Quoting 653. washingtonian115:
This is from CWG.I think people should take this advise and perhaps a more civil debate would be at hand and not name calling..

From CWG
Deep-six the term "denier" and abandon "alarmist". Let's get "warmist" out of the way, too
Link
Jason-CapitalWeatherGang
4:36 PM EDT
Very few people actually "deny" climate change to some degree... they might be unconvinced human are playing the dominant role - maybe just a small role, they might be convinced it's manmade but unconvinced it poses a big threat, they might be unconvinced we can't adapt to i, they might not be convinced there are other problems more serious than it... the term "denier" is being used to trivialize their perspective...and put them into a camp, without fully understanding where they're coming from. i've debated enough people with different views on climate change to understand this


Great post.
Quoting 732. Jedkins01:
Guys, why bother waiting for the IPCC report when we already know the answer?!! The Earth is going to cool steadily over the next 100 years due to SWGC or (Santas Workshop Global Cooling).

Basically, Santa is tired of the winters getting gradually warmer on a mean scale because its hurting the Christmas spirit(remember pretend the southern hemisphere doesn't exist) so hes created a secret formula for cooling the earth.

Word has it that the secret formula is spread through contrails...

I have inside scoop to this though because I've seen the contrails with my own eyes and I saw an elf making a deal with a jet company.

Want proof? I know its true because the ozone hole was caused by air sols and Santa's formula uses air sols. He didn't mean to hurt the planet its just his prototype wasn't designed properly so it put a hole in the ozone layer, he has since made a software patch to correct the error.


and all this time I thought it was rudolph's red nose melting the ice and causing GW..geez..thanks Jed for setting me straight..
is there any word that is safe from buzzword/buzzterm analysis?

Quoting 726. Patrap:
Global Climate Change Indicators

Introduction Warming Climate Human Influence

More Information

Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

If all the people producing static would just read that page. Eee-ow. Maybe instead of trying to debunk each bogus claim made on here, just post that link or a relevant graph and the link.

Minimize the verbiage. Use the graphs, Luke.
740. SLU
Quoting 737. Tropicsweatherpr:
No surprise from CSU on this forecast.

CSU Forecast for September 27 thru October 10 calls for below average


There's no more hope:

Excerpt:

The below-average forecast is due to several factors. No TCs are currently
present in the tropical Atlantic, and only one area east of the Lesser Antilles is given a
low chance of TC formation by the NHC in the next five days. None of the global
models develop any intense TCs during the next week.
The MJO is currently in Phase 6, which is an unfavorable phase for Atlantic TC
formation. Most global models indicate relatively little movement of the MJO out of
Phase 6 during the next two weeks. In general, these harsh sub-seasonal conditions
combined with the anemic activity that has occurred so far this year indicates that the
likelihood of significant activity during the next two weeks is quite low.

VERIFICATION OF SEPTEMBER 13 – SEPTEMBER 26, 2013 FORECAST
The two-week forecast of tropical cyclone activity from September 14- September 27 verified somewhat lower than expectations. While not much additional TC formation was expected during the two-week time span, we expected that Hurricane Humberto would last longer and intensify more than it did. Activity at average levels (70-130% of normal) was predicted (15-28 ACE units), while observed activity was at below-average levels (8 ACE units). ACE generated during the two-week period came from Gabrielle, Humberto, and Ingrid.
Any links to watch The Weather Company Climate Convention today? I looked with no luck..


Quoting 653. washingtonian115:
This is from CWG.I think people should take this advise and perhaps a more civil debate would be at hand and not name calling..

From CWG
Deep-six the term "denier" and abandon "alarmist". Let's get "warmist" out of the way, too




This has crossed my mind before. Can you all imagine the backlash?


Severe early season cold blasts Russia and eastern Europe,sorry no graph.
Quoting 740. SLU:


There's no more hope:

Excerpt:

The below-average forecast is due to several factors. No TCs are currently
present in the tropical Atlantic, and only one area east of the Lesser Antilles is given a
low chance of TC formation by the NHC in the next five days. None of the global
models develop any intense TCs during the next week.
The MJO is currently in Phase 6, which is an unfavorable phase for Atlantic TC
formation. Most global models indicate relatively little movement of the MJO out of
Phase 6 during the next two weeks. In general, these harsh sub-seasonal conditions
combined with the anemic activity that has occurred so far this year indicates that the
likelihood of significant activity during the next two weeks is quite low.

VERIFICATION OF SEPTEMBER 13 – SEPTEMBER 26, 2013 FORECAST
The two-week forecast of tropical cyclone activity from September 14- September 27 verified somewhat lower than expectations. While not much additional TC formation was expected during the two-week time span, we expected that Hurricane Humberto would last longer and intensify more than it did. Activity at average levels (70-130% of normal) was predicted (15-28 ACE units), while observed activity was at below-average levels (8 ACE units). ACE generated during the two-week period came from Gabrielle, Humberto, and Ingrid.


I am counting the days to June 1 2015.
Quoting 103. ncstorm:
Question to the alarmists..

Due to recent reports from the leaked IPCC report that earth has slowed down in warming is the GW agenda that urgent then? Have there been severe environmental regulations that were put in place to have an effect on the slow warming? If not, then what is causing the cooling? Is that part of GW as well?



I urge you to look into it a little further, lets not jump to conclusions :)

I'm in a class on climate change and we got the "early scoop" if you will on the new IPCC report. They do address the cooling over the past 15 years. However the reason for this is that the net and sudden warming of AGW is causing a slow mixing process of the ocean which causes an upwelling and cooling. Similar to how when the atmosphere rapidly heats up during that day that mixing occurs which causes convection and this clouds, showers and thunderstorms.

Remember that convection is defined simply by transfer of heat in a fluid by mixing. that is, significant heat applied to fluid causes the convection process. Well all the unnatural heating has causes mixing in the oceans.

The problem is, the deeper you go in the ocean, the slower and slower this mixing process becomes.

One other problem is that are ocean buoy observations that due observe changes below the surface only go to a depth of 2000 m, which obviously doesn't cover the deeper reaches. Now obviously, this is a VERY short summary to give you some brief insight to the cooling, and why, but there you go.

Given all this though, I leave you with this challenge. Lets not be quick to charge scientists with some agenda or conspiracy. Why not instead say "hmmm how I can I learn to understand climate more as a result". Why not join scientists in seeking to better understand their results? Climate is very complex and there is no easy generalization, no short cut answer. If you want to understand climate, why there has been cooling, and why adding CO2 actually does and has changed the climate, why not learn? ;earning is great, and good for us :)
Quoting 743. Tropicsweatherpr:


I am counting the days to June 1 2015.
Dontcha mean June 1 2014?
8 PM TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. AFTER THAT
TIME...CONDITIONS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
747. SLU
Quoting 745. interstatelover7166:
Dontcha mean June 1 2014?


Nope he meant 2015 for sure. 2014 will be a bust season too.
Quoting 745. interstatelover7166:
Dontcha mean June 1 2014?


IMO,I don't see much change to the negative conditions for next year.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.

&&
Got to disagree somewhat to the latest forecast. Remember the forecasters called a high season and yet isn't what it is. I'm thinking their the jinx this season and now they call for inactive? Watch it be active instead this time around. This will catch the forecasters off guard lol. Watch out!!! This is a late season to start with anyways.
751. SLU
Quoting 748. Tropicsweatherpr:


IMO,I don't see much change to the negative conditions for next year.


We'll be lucky to get 10-4-2 next year
" With food consumption exceeding the amount grown for six of the past 11 years, countries have run down reserves from an average of 107 days of consumption 10 years ago to under 74 days recently." - UN warns of looming worldwide food crisis in 2013 - October 13, 2013

And that is with no appreciable global temperature change for that period. Imagine what might happen if it actually gets warmer!
Can't go off saying 2014 will be a bust season. That's getting ahead of yourselves. Things change just like this season when everyone had high hopes but didn't. Watch 2014 be active when everyone's anticipating a bust. Just watch imo.
Quoting 751. SLU:


We'll be lucky to get 10-4-2 next year


The most I want is El Nino to be present in the Pacific at some point in 2014 as the year after it fades,the next season is active like the last time it occurred after 2009 when 2010 was very active.
Quoting 747. SLU:


Nope he meant 2015 for sure. 2014 will be a bust season too.

Quoting 748. Tropicsweatherpr:


IMO,I don't see much change to the negative conditions for next year.

Hey now. 2013 is looking to be the most weak and inactive season since 1997 (and even worse than that!)

I highly doubt that it will be just as inactive for the second year in a row, this rarely happens. And hey, just like it seemed like all the factors were in favor for this season and it didn't turn out what we thought, then why get all upset already about 2014? 2013 just shows that we have no clue!!

And remember, El Nino or not, nothing can stop an Andrew or a Betsy from happening in an otherwise quiet season. Even if there is mostly unfavorable conditions like 1992, there is still a potential for a pocket of favorable conditions to be in place somewhere and get the big one.
I will be watching this wave coming of Africa very closely. According to all the models they try to develop this wave near the lesser Antilles in about 180hr, in addition, all of the models are forecasting very low shear enviroment over all the eastern Caribbean at +180hr.






I don't know why the GFS doesn't continues to develop this wave, like it has been doing in many runs during the past couple of days.
Quoting 755. opal92nwf:


Hey now. 2013 is looking to be the most weak and inactive season since 1997 (and even worse than that!)

I highly doubt that it will be just as inactive for the second year in a row, this rarely happens. And hey, just like it seemed like all the factors were in favor for this season and it didn't turn out what we thought, then why get all upset already about 2014? 2013 just shows that we have no clue!!

And remember, El Nino or not, nothing can stop an Andrew or a Betsy from happening in an otherwise quiet season. Even if there is mostly unfavorable conditions like 1992, there is still a potentially for a pocket of favorable conditions to be in place somewhere and get the big one.

Agreed!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.


new invest coming soon
.
Quoting 754. Tropicsweatherpr:


The most I want is El Nino to be present in the Pacific at some point in 2014 as the year after it fades,the next season is active like the last time it occurred after 2009 when 2010 was very active.



what happen too 2007 and 2008 huurican season they where vary active all so 2006 and 2009 where el nino seasons then in 2010 2011 and 2012 where vary active season has well
761. SLU
Quoting 754. Tropicsweatherpr:


The most I want is El Nino to be present in the Pacific at some point in 2014 as the year after it fades,the next season is active like the last time it occurred after 2009 when 2010 was very active.


If El Nino develops early in the year and transitions into neutral by ASO then 2014 might still be interesting but based on the very dry air present from since 2009 and especially this year and the latest ENSO forecast i'm calling off 2014 unless things change between now and then.
EP, 92, 2013092700, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1037W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 90, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Image of the Day

Global Patterns of Carbon Dioxide

Sep 27, 2013




The map above shows carbon dioxide in the mid-troposphere, the part of the atmosphere where most weather occurs. The data was collected in May 2013, when carbon dioxide levels reached their highest point in at least 800,000 years. The highest concentrations, shown in yellow, are in the Northern Hemisphere. Concentrations are lower in the Southern Hemisphere. In May, the Northern Hemisphere growing season was just beginning, so plants were removing little carbon from the atmosphere.

download large image (498 KB, JPEG, 2610x1306)

Complete article here.
Climate change...climate change? Still waiting for rain in the northern leeward islands! When the scientifists talk about the climate change, they promise us powerfull huricane, and heavy rain....Still waiting ! The atlantic bassin is so quiet! And no rain to come ! So let's continue to heat...
Here is pouch 42L emerging from West Africa.

Quoting 764. zicoille:

Climate change...climate change? Still waiting for rain [...]

Wind and Rain Belts to Shift North as Planet Warms, Says Study
Fact;over 31k scientists signed petition debunking global warming propaganda.Look for yourself.So much for 97%.Petitionproject.org
Quoting SLU:


If El Nino develops early in the year and transitions into neutral by ASO then 2014 might still be interesting but based on the very dry air present from since 2009 and especially this year and the latest ENSO forecast i'm calling off 2014 unless things change between now and then.


NOTICE: the 2014 Hurricane season has been cancelled due to negativity. Resume the climate change argument. I'm too tired to be involved.

Annual Solar Installs to Beat Wind for First Time
By Marc Roca -

Solar power capacity installed around the world this year will beat wind for the first time driven by stronger policy support in key markets, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Photovoltaic plants will add about 36.7 gigawatts globally in 2013 and wind farms 35.5 gigawatts, or almost 25 percent less than last year, the research company said today in a statement. Solar capacity will rise about 20 percent from 2012.

“The dramatic cost reductions in photovoltaics, combined with new incentive regimes in Japan and China, are making possible further, strong growth in volumes,” said Jenny Chase, BNEF’s head of solar analysis.

Lower panel costs and government support are accelerating deployment of solar energy even as growth slows in the mature European markets. Wind installations, more than double solar before 2011, are also being slowed by Europe, as well as a lack of clarity on policy in the U.S. and China. More here..
Quoting 767. help4u:
Fact;over 31k scientists signed petition debunking global warming propaganda.Look for yourself.So much for 97%.Petitionproject.org


Fact: Science is not decided by opinion polls or petitions.
Just a friendly reminder that the Atlantic Hurricane Season ends 65 days from now on November 30th.
Quoting 737. Tropicsweatherpr:
No surprise from CSU on this forecast.

CSU Forecast for September 27 thru October 10 calls for below average


Hi

Always easy to call the game when it is two thirds over.

This season and the past two are a wake up call for the forecasting of hurricane season activity.

We could well be in a return to the years of below average activity just as the years prior to the last 2 or 3 have been characterised by above average activity.

Just goes to show that trying to forecast months in advance is, at best, a guessing game IMO. Not as much science as we would otherwise have believed.
774. yoboi
Quoting 771. Daisyworld:


Fact: Science is not decided by opinion polls or petitions.




Really???

Link
Track of the 1924 Cuba Hurricane which formed on October 14th and made it up to Category 5 strength.


I know 2 others have posted, just another view.
Quoting 651. Neapolitan:
Umm...
Perhaps golfman doesn't understand the meaning of the word "smashing"....
Here's an update on the LA salt dome collapse it's still a growing sinkhole. This article has more info on the matter than I've seen in one place before. The video is pretty crazy too. It's a corporate earth scar..

Ground Gives Way, and a Louisiana Town Struggles to Find Its Footing
Lol GFS has a mid October Cape Verde storm out in fantasy land. Would be very odd to get one that late into the season, not unheard of but still weird. Go figure though.

780. yoboi
Quoting 778. Skyepony:
Here's an update on the LA salt dome collapse it's still a growing sinkhole. This article has more info on the matter than I've seen in one place before. The video is pretty crazy too. It's a corporate scar..

Ground Gives Way, and a Louisiana Town Struggles to Find Its Footing



People have been forced out of their homes and they have not been treated very good....it's really a sad story....
Quoting 774. yoboi
Really???

Link


Really.

Link
Quoting 677. Patrap:
Ego

Freud was correct seems.

Fresca ?


I'm in da orange,'

Yes, Pat, we're sending you up some blobby stuff from down here in Panama.

Now it's up to you to make its spin and grow!
Quoting 764. zicoille:
Climate change...climate change? Still waiting for rain in the northern leeward islands! When the scientifists talk about the climate change, they promise us powerfull huricane, and heavy rain....Still waiting ! The atlantic bassin is so quiet! And no rain to come ! So let's continue to heat...
Wait much longer a Category 5 with death and destruction is on its way, can't tell you the exact time frame. Just be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. Maybe your area is quiet now, but that is not a good thing for the future as the weather tends to have a way of paying certain areas of the world a visit and and in a not so pleasant way. By the way Mariano Rivera's last time on the mound at home in a Yankees uniform. The end of an era.
Quoting 779. wxgeek723:
Lol GFS has a mid October Cape Verde storm out in fantasy land. Would be very odd to get one that late into the season, not unheard of but still weird. Go figure though.

And watch it take a track like this. :O

Quoting 784. GTstormChaserCaleb:
And watch it take a track like this. :O

Ya hmm lets see
Quoting 771. Daisyworld:


Fact: Science is not decided by opinion polls or petitions.


Especially petitions promoted by the Art Robinson's Oregon Institute, signed by Drs. Frank Burns, BJ Honeycutt, Benjamin Franklin Pierce, Geri(Ginger Spice) Halliwell and these guys.
Quoting 779. wxgeek723:
Lol GFS has a mid October Cape Verde storm out in fantasy land. Would be very odd to get one that late into the season, not unheard of but still weird. Go figure though.


Speaking that it is 2013, anything is possible!
In fact, let's just throw all logic out the window! GFS shows a LES event in mid October in the Great Lakes.
2013 have been pretty boring so far in the Atlantic,unless October or November have something fun to track I will remember this season as the one that promise much and give little.2014 might be an El Niño but the next list is usually characterized by having a lot of storms and I believe is the only list with another that everytime use have a name retire.
Quoting 738. ncstorm:
is there any word that is safe from buzzword/buzzterm analysis?

Absolutely yes!! Anything based on peer-reviewed science, confirmed data and critical thinking - like the contents of the upcoming IPCC report!
Quoting 771. Daisyworld:


Fact: Science is not decided by opinion polls or petitions.


petititonproject.org, and it's associated single (as in 1 and only), debunked/counterfeit, self-proclaimed 'peer-reviewed' article on it's website? That site being referenced on this blog at all is embarrassing.

I'm not linking to the multiple sites that have debunked/found out the fraud associated with that 'paper'. It's not necessary - anyone can google the authors to find out the scam.
Thanks Doc!
Quoting 783. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wait much longer a Category 5 with death and destruction is on its way, can't tell you the exact time frame. Just be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. Maybe your area is quiet now, but that is not a good thing for the future as the weather tends to have a way of paying certain areas of the world a visit and and in a not so pleasant way. By the way Mariano Rivera's last time on the mound at home in a Yankees uniform. The end of an era.


He has been my favorite for soooo long (Yankees fan here!) You're right, truly the end of an era.

Adios, Mariano!
Quoting 784. GTstormChaserCaleb:
And watch it take a track like this. :O



Not too likely in October.
Quoting 790. LAbonbon:


petititonproject.org, and it's associated single (as in 1 and only), debunked/counterfeit, self-proclaimed 'peer-reviewed' article on it's website? That site being referenced on this blog at all is embarrassing.

I'm not linking to the multiple sites that have debunked/found out the fraud associated with that 'paper'. It's not necessary - anyone can google the authors to find out the scam.
Just typed it into Better Business Bureau, no matches found. Oh well another attempt to debunk Global Warming fail. Keep on doing it guys you'll eventually come around to some common sense and rational.
Re-post of very good, informative video. It seems quite relative!

Quoting 790. LAbonbon:


petititonproject.org, and it's associated single (as in 1 and only), debunked/counterfeit, self-proclaimed 'peer-reviewed' article on it's website? That site being referenced on this blog at all is embarrassing.

I'm not linking to the multiple sites that have debunked/found out the fraud associated with that 'paper'. It's not necessary - anyone can google the authors to find out the scam.
So true, bonbon.

What was Xulonn saying about critical thinking, hmmmm?
Quoting 794. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Just typed it into Better Business Bureau, no matches found. Oh well another attempt to debunk Global Warming fail. Keep on doing it guys you'll eventually come around to some common sense and rational.


just type in the 'authors' last names into Google...the article is a bit of a 'bait and switch'...

here's one
Quoting 792. LAbonbon:


He has been my favorite for soooo long (Yankees fan here!) You're right, truly the end of an era.

Adios, Mariano!
Wow Petite and Jeter are out on the mound to salute Rivera. A Truly remarkable and emotional sendoff to a great career. From this Rays fan, hats off.

WOW!! its that snow!!
Quoting 794. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Just typed it into Better Business Bureau, no matches found. Oh well another attempt to debunk Global Warming fail. Keep on doing it guys you'll eventually come around to some common sense and rational.


Or there's this one, a review of the paper by Michael MacCracken.

I could find more, if you'd like...
Quoting 800. LAbonbon:


Or there's this one, a review of the paper by Michael MacCracken.

I could find more, if you'd like...


Thanks for the link to McCracken and the Climate institute. That's a new site to me, I'll look at it when I'm more awake.
Quoting 800. LAbonbon:


Or there's this one, a review of the paper by Michael MacCracken.

I could find more, if you'd like...


are you guys seriously looking up businesses on the BBB and debunking them that way?..I just looked up McDonalds in that same zipcode as Climate Institute and they are not accredited on there either..good gracious..McDonalds has been running a scam for over 73 years..I guess the hamburglar has been robbing us consumers on a real tip..

Just a quick Thank You to those of you with the patience to deal with the ignorance and whining of those causing the "noise". Nearly all of them are on my ignore list, but I see when they are quoted they are in the same pathetic rut.
Quoting 802. JohnLonergan:


Thanks for the link to McCracken and the Climate institute. That's a new site to me, I'll look at it when I'm more awake.


Good night, John. Yes, 4 a.m. comes early (or whatever zone you're in) :D
Quoting 803. ncstorm:


are you guys seriously looking up businesses on the BBB and debunking them that way?..I just looked up McDonalds in that same zipcode as Climate Institute and they are not accredited on there either..good gracious..McDonalds has been running a scam for over 73 years..I guess the hamburglar has been robbing us consumers on a real tip..



run out of folks to be antagonistic with? well, I won't engage, sorry
Quoting 744. Jedkins01:


I urge you to look into it a little further, lets not jump to conclusions :)

I'm in a class on climate change and we got the "early scoop" if you will on the new IPCC report. They do address the cooling over the past 15 years.

You are in a climate science course that addresses "cooling over the past 15 years?"

Is that correct, or a mistype?
Quoting 803. ncstorm:


are you guys seriously looking up businesses on the BBB and debunking them that way?..I just looked up McDonalds in that same zipcode as Climate Institute and they are not accredited on there either..good gracious..McDonalds has been running a scam for over 73 years..I guess the hamburglar has been robbing us consumers on a real tip..

What are you talking about? McDonalds is accredited, why are you using some random zipcode from in the middle of nowhere as that supposed Climate Institute is not even there. It's a scam, it's like those advertisements that say get paid for doing polls, psshhh yeah right, I did a couple of those to test it out and didn't get paid a dime or how about those binary trading options, lol. It's like me giving you directions to a business and it's not even there, how would you feel if I did that to you? Not that I would do that to you because I'm not that kind of person.
No LA, I was just showing you the flaws in your "debunking"..

Have a good night..no engagement over here needed..
Quoting 809. GTstormChaserCaleb:
What are you talking about? McDonalds is accredited, why are you using some random zipcode from in the middle of nowhere as that supposed Climate Institute is not even there. It's a scam, it's like those advertisements that say get paid for doing polls, psshhh yeah right, I did a couple of those to test it out and didn't get paid a dime or how about those binary trading options, lol. It's like me giving you directions to a business and it's not even there, how would you feel if I did that to you? Not that I would do that to you because I'm not that kind of person.


GT, I provided a link in my comment for the same zipcode as Climate Institute..thats not random..I was just testing your theory with a well known business..I entered a search for "McDonalds"..a query came up and they were not accredited..you can click on the link and see for yourself..LOL...I cited a source as I was told to do earlier..

Quoting 778. Skyepony:
Here's an update on the LA salt dome collapse it's still a growing sinkhole. This article has more info on the matter than I've seen in one place before. The video is pretty crazy too. It's a corporate earth scar..

Ground Gives Way, and a Louisiana Town Struggles to Find Its Footing


Thanks, Skye. Good article. I particularly liked the graphic - it made it easier to understand the situation.
Wow, just watched the ending of the Yankees game, such a class act Mo is. He will be missed and will always be the best closer to ever step foot on that mound.
814. beell
Quoting 808. ScottLincoln:

You are in a climate science course that addresses "cooling over the past 15 years?"

Is that correct, or a mistype?


Yes, Jed has been taking his time to get through school.
Quoting 808. ScottLincoln:

You are in a climate science course that addresses "cooling over the past 15 years?"

Is that correct, or a mistype?


he said "I'm in a class on climate change and we got the "early scoop" if you will on the new IPCC report. They do address the cooling over the past 15 years."

meaning the IPCC report addresses the cooling over 15 ears ..
Quoting 809. GTstormChaserCaleb:
What are you talking about? McDonalds is accredited, why are you using some random zipcode from in the middle of nowhere as that supposed Climate Institute is not even there. It's a scam, it's like those advertisements that say get paid for doing polls, psshhh yeah right, I did a couple of those to test it out and didn't get paid a dime or how about those binary trading options, lol. It's like me giving you directions to a business and it's not even there, how would you feel if I did that to you? Not that I would do that to you because I'm not that kind of person.


Actually, Climate Institute is legit. The paper reviewed, put out by OISM, is highly questionable. One of the reviewers of the paper (reviewed post-promulgation) is associated w/ the Climate Institute.
817. beell
Quoting 815. whitewabit:


he said "I'm in a class on climate change and we got the "early scoop" if you will on the new IPCC report. They do address the cooling over the past 15 years."

meaning the IPCC report addresses the cooling over 15 ears ..


I think Scott was objecting to the fact that you cannot characterize a statistical flat line in temperature as "cooling". My comment was a sad attempt at a one-liner.

Say goodnight, Gracie...
G'night.
T.D. Paolo (20W)

TD Paolo (20W) and low east of the Philippines

In case you missed Mr. Don't Mess with Texas ... See page 12, Post 576 for some fun reading.

I think what set me off, was when he said we should "adapt." That's expert troll talk.

Quoting 576. weatherzealot:
As policy makers, we should be focusing instead on how we as humans can adapt to the change, not control it. We have adapted from cavemen to flying to the moon. I'm sure we can adapt here as well.

Now I will go back to lurking for another 15 years. :) Thanks
Joe

Quoting 629. OracleDeAtlantis:

The problem with this idea is that you've got about five billion souls on earth who are living hand to mouth, right now. We're high maintenance biology, especially en masse.

It doesn't take much climate change to kill a lot of people. More than we could ever begin to bury.

We could easily loose a few hundred million, if there was even a minor glitch in the food chain.

How many days of food do you have in your house in Texas? I bet you don't have two weeks worth. Which means you're in constant danger, and you don't even know it.

You don't have 15 years. You've got about about 15 days, before your neighbors start looking to make a meal out of you. Living in Texas, I bet they're well armed too.

" With food consumption exceeding the amount grown for six of the past 11 years, countries have run down reserves from an average of 107 days of consumption 10 years ago to under 74 days recently." - UN warns of looming worldwide food crisis in 2013 - October 13, 2013


Quoting 810. ncstorm:
No LA, I was just showing you the flaws in your "debunking"..

Have a good night..no engagement over here needed..
LA wasn't the one checking the better business bureau, as you know perfectly well, and that wasn't the basis of the debunking. But if it makes you feel better to think you showed up someone else, you just go right ahead and enjoy it. Like you enjoyed your non-victory in your non-debate with Nea.
you go guys and girls...
keep putting the truth out there the facts and nothing but the facts...eventually something will stick. hopefully!
Quoting 700. Naga5000:


I have very rarely used the "denier" term. As for aggressiveness, I believe that is purely subjective. Most of the time I post something my attitude is somewhere between "I hope they understand this, but I doubt it" and "Seriously?!?"
r u 'captaintainer'?
I don't know if this was previously posted, it's from NPR yesterday.

Wild Weather Tied To Unusual Jet Stream Activity
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAOLO
11:00 AM PhST September 27 2013
============================

Tropical Depression "PAOLO" has slightly accelerated in a west northwest direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Paolo (1004 hPa) located at 16.0N 117.0E or 290 km west of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 4 knots.

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-7.5 mm per hour (moderate to occasionally heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression "PAOLO" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Mindoro Provinces and northern Palawan.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
lol.

As soon as I question about tornadoes in September and October, we have a good chance at seeing some tornadoes tomorrow in the TX Panhandle and SW Kansas. CLASSIC.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT AMARILLO TX AND GARDEN CITY KS AT 00Z/SAT SHOW
MLCAPE IN THE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MAINLY WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN
DISCRETE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING STORMS. CURVED
HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST.
Quoting 805. CaicosRetiredSailor:
Just a quick Thank You to those of you with the patience to deal with the ignorance and whining of those causing the "noise". Nearly all of them are on my ignore list, but I see when they are quoted they are in the same pathetic rut.
Exactly. I come here to see weather and all I get is government paid shills trying to push an agenda. I would ask Mr. Masters as to who is who, but I know where his paycheck is coming from, so let's agree to keep his job, but at the same time be creative about the process. I suggest we introduce the science of man made global cooling. Yes Sir, MMGC.The theory behind this new science is that by destroying the heat retaining foliage that lives on the Earth, we are allowing the wind to move more freely upon the sphere, thus causing MMGC. As proof of my theory I site the great dust bowl of the 30's and every desert on the planet, and will regurgitate upon request.
Link

Hey if anyone is interested in learning more how to understanding sounding graphs and other important properties related to it without all the mathematics, this is a great site to visit.
Quoting 820. BaltimoreBrian:
For indianrivguy, courtesy of extxw:

With Murky Water And Manatee Deaths, Lagoon Languishes
Army Core of Engineers ... messin' up your county with Federal approval, and your grandkids get to pay for it!


@reedtimmerTVN Reed Timmer
Latest NAM model shows >60F dewpoints tomorrow by late afternoon in Texas Panhandle even N. Tornadoes very possible.
Quoting 808. ScottLincoln:

You are in a climate science course that addresses "cooling over the past 15 years?"

Is that correct, or a mistype?


When I speak of cooling I'm making reference to cooling due to mixing, obviously we are talking net warming overall of the Earth still. Although the mixing of the ocean may indeed be responsible for the slowing of surface heating, but we weren't shown a comprehensive look at the report, just a brief overview, so I definitely don't want to make false claim of what I do not know.

Of course, you could always just wait for the IPCC report to come out :)

JUST IN...... HOLY COW!!!!



From: NSW Fire Media
PHOTO: Taken By Barry Ballard, #CoombaPark Fire taken from Great Lakes Sailing Club. 12.15pm

Major Fire Updates

Emergency Warning - Shallow Bay Fire (Great Lakes) 27/09/13 13:27
Posted: 27/09/2013
An emergency warning is in place for a fire burning in the area around Shallow Bay and Coomba Park in the Great Lakes area.


Current Situation

The fire is spreading in a north westerly direction in the area of Shallow Bay Road.

The fire is burning erraticallly. Spot fires are starting ahead of the main fire front. These spot fires may threaten homes before the main fire front.

There are approximately 50 homes in the area.

Advice

People in the area of Shallow Bay Road, Pitchfork Place, Salisbury Way and Oak Lane should be aware of the potential for fire.

As the fire is burning along the Shallow Bay Road, residents are advised to seek shelter as the fire impacts. protect yourself from the heat of the fire.

An Emergency Alert telephone warning is being sent to people in the area.

Warm and windy conditions are forecast to return on Saturday.
Quoting 814. beell:


Yes, Jed has been taking his time to get through school.



Quoting 831. Pallis:
Army Core of Engineers ... messin' up your county with Federal approval, and your grandkids get to pay for it!


And this is different, how?
Quoting 820. BaltimoreBrian:
For indianrivguy, courtesy of extxw:

With Murky Water And Manatee Deaths, Lagoon Languishes


I was at the Indian River today. There was dead fish everywhere.


Saturday is Hands across the Lagoon Day from New Symrna to Stuart..

Events are planned from 9 to 10 a.m. Sept. 28 as part of National Estuaries Day and will occur at designated causeways in all five counties bordering the 156-mile-long Indian River Lagoon. At 9:45 a.m., participants will join hands for 15 minutes as a symbol of support. Hands Across the Lagoon gatherings will occur at:
• New Smyrna South Causeway (State Road 44)
• Max Brewer Causeway, Titusville (SR 406)
• State Road 520 Causeway, Cocoa Beach
• Melbourne Causeway (U.S. 192) — Parking available at Front Street Park, Geiger Point Park and East Minister Presbyterian Church in Indialantic.
• Kayaks Across the Lagoon: Kiwanis Island Park (SR 520), Merritt Island
• Wabasso Causeway (County Road 510, Indian River County)
• South Bridge Causesway in Fort Pierce (SR 1A)
• Stuart Causeway (SR 1A)



Upcoming lagoon forums

What: Brevard County Commission’s Indian River Lagoon workshop. Presentations will include reports about the current problems in the lagoon and the estuary’s economic value to the region. Rep. Bill Posey may attend.
When: 6 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 17
Where: Ted Moorhead Lagoon House, 3275 Dixie Highway, N.E., Palm Bay
Quoting 830. Jedkins01:
Link

Hey if anyone is interested in learning more how to understanding sounding graphs and other important properties related to it without all the mathematics, this is a great site to visit.


That's a great link Jedkins01.
It's a very sad situation skyepony. I hope central FL has a long dry spell that helps Lake Okeechobee drop and further releases into the Indian River unnecessary. The Indian River needs a long time to recover.
Quoting 835. Jedkins01:




Where did your avatar go?
Incident Update: Purfleet fire -#Taree 27/09/13

Firefighters are working to fully contain a bush fire burning in the area around Purfleet, south of Taree.

The fire has burnt more than 100 hectares of bushland. The fire is burning east of the Pacific Highway, west of Malcoms Road and north of Khappinghat Nature Reserve.

Firefighters have spent the night backburning where conditions have allowed in an effort to contain the fire. Crews will focus on strengthening containment lines around the fire today, with warm and windy conditions expected to return on Saturday.

Old Bar Road and the Pacific Hwy have been reopened however there is still a lot of smoke in the area.

Advice

While the immediate threat has eased, people in the area around Old Bar Road should continue to monitor conditions and be prepared in the event fire reaches their property.

With the return of warm and windy conditions on Saturday, if you live in this area, ensure your property is well prepared. Ensure you have a plan for what to do if the fire reaches your property. Check here for advice.

The Pacific Highway is open in both directions with a reduced speed limit.

Other local roads may be closed at short notice due to firefighting operations.
Quoting 828. Thrawst:
lol.

As soon as I question about tornadoes in September and October, we have a good chance at seeing some tornadoes tomorrow in the TX Panhandle and SW Kansas. CLASSIC.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT AMARILLO TX AND GARDEN CITY KS AT 00Z/SAT SHOW
MLCAPE IN THE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MAINLY WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN
DISCRETE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING STORMS. CURVED
HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST.


Interesting fact of the day: September is the only month that has not seen a High Risk day.
Quoting 840. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where did your avatar go?


It suicided thanks to the 2013 Hurricane Season.
Tomorrow:



Today:

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
In case you missed Mr. Don't Mess with Texas ... See page 12, Post 576 for some fun reading.

I think what set me off, was when he said we should "adapt." That's expert troll talk.





Oracle, that was one of the most poorly written, fact-challenged articles about food and food supplies I've ever seen. Not only is global climate change decreasing the supply of food, now it's hordes of "speculators" grabbing up millions of acres of farmland to drive up food prices, yet, the production of food has fallen. "Lester Brown, president of the Earth policy research centre in Washington, says that the climate is no longer reliable and the demands for food are growing so fast that a breakdown is inevitable, unless urgent action is taken." Somehow, I have the feeling that Lester Brown's only experience with farming is driving past a few while on vacation in the country. Since when had climate ever been reliable for a farmer? Show me some evidence climate is less "reliable" today than it was 20 years ago. Why would demand for food be rising so fast when the FAO "suggests" that 870 million people are malnourished?

There are only three reasons for food problems.

1. The US and other developed countries subsidize farmers not to grow food. If farmers were allowed to grow any crop they wanted, and in any amount they wanted, food production would double in several years and food prices would plummet. That's one of the reasons why farmers are subsidized not to grow certain crops - food prices falling too low guarantees that food supplies will also fall within a few years.

2. Global graft and corruption leads to maldistribution of food, not the lack of food. Between the developed countries of the world and the UN, more food has been made available to those in need than ever before in human history. No one needs to be malnourished, but some people are, because they have the misfortune of living in countries run by brutal, corrupt dictators, who steal the food and really do grab millions of acres of farmland, making them unproductive. Look up the history of Zimbabwe if you want to see a human created food crisis. A few of our drones could be put to good use hunting down and killing Robert Mugabe, so the people of Zimbabwe have a chance to improve their miserable existence.

3. Too much food aid from developed countries, rather than helping farmers in these countries increase their own food production. How do you expect a farmer to make money when people are able to get what he could grow for free from the UN or Oxfam? When was the last time you heard of a famine in India? Those used to be an almost yearly occurrence until Nehru cut off all donations of free food and only accepted offers to help educate Indian farmers and provide more fertilizer and better quality of seeds. This was the beginning of India becoming the world power it is today. Some people continued to suffer from malnutrition while the Indian miracle took root, but now India is no longer a world client for free food and has become a net food exporter.

Stop believing people like Brown, the UN, and Oxfam. Their goal is to keep the poor dependent forever. Otherwise, what do they do for a living? Start talking to and reading about farming and food production from those who actually do it, not those who talk and write about it.
Quoting 836. Nobody:


Wuzzup with the TX rain chances?




Looks like 92E split in half? and there is an Ingrid-typish thing over Veracruz?



New entity under Cuba?

CARIB disturbance calling in moisture from everywhere?



Did I miss anything, other than that spark thinking about crossing basin to BOC? Work just really cramps my WX watching.
Quoting 803. ncstorm:


are you guys seriously looking up businesses on the BBB and debunking them that way?..I just looked up McDonalds in that same zipcode as Climate Institute and they are not accredited on there either..good gracious..McDonalds has been running a scam for over 73 years..I guess the hamburglar has been robbing us consumers on a real tip..



You got it. Somehow scientists should be grouped with McDonalds. Obviously they are the exact same thing and should be treated as such. Was this sarcasm?
Quoting 847. Naga5000:


You got it. Somehow scientists should be grouped with McDonalds. Obviously they are the exact same thing and should be treated as such. Was this sarcasm?


Sounded more like ncstorm's frustration to me.
To be honest, I'm enjoying this break from hurricanes or tornadoes. Very good and healthy to focus on real life :)
Quoting 848. Astrometeor:


Sounded more like ncstorm's frustration to me.

Bam?
Quoting 850. Naga5000:

Bam?


No idea.
Quoting 822. ColdInFL:

What is IPCC?
Quoting 852. allancalderini:
What is IPCC?


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC

Quoting 849. Bluestorm5:
To be honest, I'm enjoying this break from hurricanes or tornadoes. Very good and healthy to focus on real life :)
Hurricanes and tornadoes aren't real life?

I think you might want to amend that statement a bit, Kyle. :)
Quoting 849. Bluestorm5:
To be honest, I'm enjoying this break from hurricanes or tornadoes. Very good and healthy to focus on real life :)


Who are you and what have you done with Kyle?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. AFTER THAT
TIME...CONDITIONS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.

&&
Good night everyone.

Not much in the way of clouds here tonight:

Quoting 854. Astrometeor:


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC
Thanks Astro.
Quoting 855. KoritheMan:

Hurricanes and tornadoes aren't real life?

I think you might want to amend that statement a bit, Kyle. :)


Of course they are real life. Forecasting and tracking 24/7 in your room isn't having life, though :)

Quoting 856. Astrometeor:


Who are you and what have you done with Kyle?


College changes everybody.
Quoting redwagon:




Looks like 92E split in half? and there is an Ingrid-typish thing over Veracruz?



New entity under Cuba?

CARIB disturbance calling in moisture from everywhere?



Did I miss anything, other than that spark thinking about crossing basin to BOC? Work just really cramps my WX watching.

That broad area of cloudiness east of the Lesser Antilles got a 10% circle at 8:00 pm update. If it develops at all, it's going to recurve and going out into the Atlantic to die. The BOC is so dry there's no chance for anything to develop there, and the disturbance by Cuba is just diurnal thing and also has no chance for development. Things are not exactly hopping for September 27.

Quoting 861. Bluestorm5:


Of course they are real life. Forecasting and tracking 24/7 in your room isn't having life, though :)

Just playin there, duder.

Trust me, even I get tired of weather forecasting sometimes.
Quoting 839. BaltimoreBrian:
It's a very sad situation skyepony. I hope central FL has a long dry spell that helps Lake Okeechobee drop and further releases into the Indian River unnecessary. The Indian River needs a long time to recover.


I hope for the best for those who are being adversely affected by the high water levels in certain areas of South Florida. I do not, however, wish for a long dry spell here. Normal rainfall will eventually bring water levels in balance. Also, normal rainfall from this time of year forward implies a long dry spell is on its way anyways-the dry season. Do NOT want a drought here.
Quoting 862. sar2401:

That broad area of cloudiness east of the Lesser Antilles got a 10% circle at 8:00 pm update. If it develops at all, it's going to recurve and going out into the Atlantic to die. The BOC is so dry there's no chance for anything to develop there, and the disturbance by Cuba is just diurnal thing and also has no chance for development. Things are not exactly hopping for September 27.


I thank you for the counter-update. :)


From: NSW Fire Media
RT @smlowc: Water bombing aircraft dousing hard to reach flames at the Blomfield Rd brushfire. Image Samantha Lowcock. #Yarrowitch #nswfires

@NSWRFS
Total Fire Bans will be in place tomorrow Sat 28th for Greater Sydney, Greater Hunter, North Coast, New England, Northern Slopes.

For those that haven't read it, here is my 2013/14 Australian Bushfire Season Forecast Blog
Quoting 863. KoritheMan:

Just playin there, duder.

Trust me, even I get tired of weather forecasting sometimes.
Yeah, I just haven't got urge to forecast, look at models, or other stuff. Interesting to see how WxChallenge turn out to be.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM WUTIP (T1321)
15:00 PM JST September 27 2013
======================================

South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Wutip (1000 hPa) located at 16.8N 116.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.8N 115.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.8N 114.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.8N 113.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
The only hurricane seasons that come remotely close to the type of inactivity of this season may have to be 1907 and 1914. Yes, I realize that 1992 and 1983 may have had less named storms, but we know the monsters that made those years memorable. If you guys can think of any others that are somewhat similar to this season, please let me know :)

Quoting 869. lobdelse81:
The only hurricane seasons that come remotely close to the type of inactivity of this season may have to be 1907 and 1914. Yes, I realize that 1992 and 1983 may have had less named storms, but we know the monsters that made those years memorable. If you guys can think of any others that are somewhat similar to this season, please let me know :)
Uh... 1997?

I also don't think 1907 and 1914 are even remotely good comparisons, lol. Don't get irrational just because of a single quiet season. :P
Good morning everybody.

We could see a pretty active severe weather day across the Texas Panhandle, Western Oklahoma, and Western Kansas. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but there is a decent chance for a couple tornadoes with discrete storms.

The actual Link to the IPPC Summary is:

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/W GIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf

B.1 Atmosphere

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased (see Figures SPM.1, SPM.2, SPM.3 and SPM.4). {2.2, 2.4, 3.2, 3.7, 4.2–4.7, 5.2, 5.3, 5.5–5.6, 6.2, 13.2}



Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850 (see Figure SPM.1). In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence). {2.4, 5.3}

B.2 Ocean


Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010 (see Figure SPM.3), and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971. {3.2, Box 3.1}
B.3 Cryosphere


Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent (high confidence) (see Figure SPM.3). {4.2–4.7}
B.4 Sea Level


The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m (see Figure SPM.3). {3.7, 5.6, 13.2}
B.5 Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles


The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. CO2 concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification (see Figure SPM.4). {2.2, 3.8, 5.2, 6.2, 6.3}
C. Drivers of Climate Change
Natural and anthropogenic substances and processes that alter the Earth's energy budget are drivers of climate change. Radiative forcing14 (RF) quantifies the change in energy fluxes caused by changes in these drivers for 2011 relative to 1750, unless otherwise indicated. Positive RF leads to surface warming, negative RF leads to surface cooling. RF is estimated based on in-situ and remote observations, properties of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and calculations using numerical models representing observed processes. Some emitted compounds affect the atmospheric concentration of other substances. The RF can be reported based on the concentration changes of each substance15. Alternatively, the emission-based RF of a compound can be reported, which provides a more direct link to human activities. It includes contributions from all substances affected by that emission. The total anthropogenic RF of the two approaches are identical when considering all drivers. Though both approaches are used in this Summary, emission-based RFs are emphasized.


Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750 (see Figure SPM.5). {3.2, Box 3.1, 8.3, 8.5}
D. Understanding the Climate System and its Recent Changes
Understanding recent changes in the climate system results from combining observations, studies of feedback processes, and model simulations. Evaluation of the ability of climate models to simulate recent changes requires consideration of the state of all modelled climate system components at the start of the simulation and the natural and anthropogenic forcing used to drive the models. Compared to AR4, more detailed and longer observations and improved climate models now enable the attribution of a human contribution to detected changes in more climate system components.
D.1 Evaluation of Climate Models


Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system. {2–14}



Climate models have improved since the AR4. Models reproduce observed continental-scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions (very high confidence). {9.4, 9.6, 9.8}
D.3 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change


Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes (Figure SPM.6 and Table SPM.1). This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. {10.3–10.6, 10.9}
D.2 Quantification of Climate System Responses


Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming in response to past and future forcing. {Box 12.2, Box 13.1}
D.3 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change


Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes (Figure SPM.6 and Table SPM.1). This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. {10.3–10.6, 10.9}


Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. {Chapters 6, 11, 12, 13, 14}
E.1 Atmosphere: Temperature


Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2°C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5. Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Warming will continue to exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform (see Figures SPM.7 and SPM.8). {11.3, 12.3, 12.4, 14.8}
E.2 Atmosphere: Water Cycle


Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions (see Figure SPM.8). {12.4, 14.3}
E.5 Cryosphere


It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin and that Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises. Global glacier volume will further decrease. {12.4, 13.4}
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 66 degrees with a wind chill of 66 and humidity at 90%. They fixed the glitch and it's back to a heat index of 92 expected later today.

I'm going out of town tonight, be back tomorrow afternoon, getting some R&R, so breakfast tomorrow morning is on your own!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, steak, eggs and hash browns, bacon and egg grilled cheese, Warm grapefruit and orange with toasted coconut, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
E.6 Sea Level


Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century (see Figure SPM.9). Under all RCP scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets. {13.3– 13.5}
E.7 Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles


Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (high confidence). Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will increase ocean acidification. {6.4}
E.8 Climate Stabilization, Climate Change Commitment and Irreversibility


Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond (see Figure SPM.10). Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2. {12.5}
891. beell
Quoting 835. Jedkins01:





Certainly not an meant as an insult, Jed. Just a comment that was intended to be humorous based on a particular paraphrase used by Scott in a response to your post:

You are in a climate science course that addresses cooling over the past 15 years?

Yes, Jed has been taking his time to get through school.

From some of your posts here, as far as I can tell, your college education is on track! Sorry if this unnecessary attempt at good-natured humor fell flat.

Cheers!
892. vis0
Apology to moderators  in making things difficult but its my "baby", my theories, my re-discoveries (nature figured it out 1st, i'm just here to enjoy the rideS) . Since these ideas are not officially discovered TILL/IF they turn out to be true) some might complain i'm "monoblahing" cause this wasn't in yer college courses. If Einstein only wrote of e=mc sqD would he be monoblahing (now that we have hindsight) ...R U nutz NOT COMPARING me to him... but i'm not copy & pasting its all original though only on my last blog as this a special comment 'cause i went to the NYC Climate Convention 2013

Fantastic!!! Climate convention.
My apology, i'm sorry for not jotting down names of those that took the time to appear, THANK YOU TO ALL. i jot info by pencil/pen & i missed names in preferring to hear all of what the people said, i hope next time  names
are placed BEHIND them on the static screen or when slide shows stop.

"ml-d" is short for microLow device its a device that uses very low (unperceived to  today's "pick up" devices even the militarizes/police sensitive equipment. i passed my portable ml-d by police scanners (hidden on me) by traffic scanners nothing shows up, though one officer who seemed to have a "science trained mind" in 2011 noticed that my left arm was not visible in the scanner as i went by a portable scanner on 2nd Avenue & 34st. he took a double take as i heard him say were his arm as he starred at me then called a technician to check the scanner for errors. Living "complex" things becomes invisible to simple physics when you use the ml-d  within ones aura since its "grounded" to Space not a planet.Microwaves i use (wanted to Show Dr. Masters my left side, arm hands, knuckles joint areas) are darker by 3 hues due to my microwave (burn) work. Wanted to tell my theories to the panel Dr. Masters conversed w/ but i thought they'll think i'm nuts 'cause my work is not of the present physics mind, not to mention there was a crowd around them & i had more important business to attend to. 

Grading the conversation:  
B :The many experts that used the time to explain in more layman terms what is going on as to our burden on nature.  i appreciate "degreed" people more so when they take the time to explain things to us common folk, we are the majority
& we're are all needed if an attitude change is desired as to how the mass thinks of nature as our friend not foe or something too far away to comprehend that one doesn't need be it to Live or make mucho money.

C-: The bearded guy who has done MUCH great work for ~20 years. (BUT, used the present tense of sha*. At least 3 times & kept saying if you don't think GW by mankind is 100%  you SHOULD  NOT BE HERE ("get out!") Too much
foul language ... F might be the more appropriate grade as to the language
he used but then i'd be thought to have used foul language, i.e. a manner of procreation, though he gets an A for his work/involvement. If some say he was talking to "today's kids", then one is using Lowest common denominator instead of raising the kids up. Could've used that word the first time then used "shoot" or
"chucks"  by then saying "shoot,  hey i kept it clean"  then to end it said the more harsh word so you keep in the listeners memory the severity of the issue. Instead what i remember most is the cheap laughs (as cursing or mentioning sex gets easy giggles from 4th grade till we die/so called mature years.) from the overuse of inappropriate words not the information of your hard work. Weird, he presented an Iceland map i speak of below. Passion for something does not mean on loses civility when whom is watching is a civil crowd or a group of people whose minds you want to "open" be it LIVE or on TV.

 (BTW in case no one "axed", i state the heating of this planet is 64% man 36% the "biorhythms" of  5 NATURAL influences that occur in this type of UNI-verse) STILL THAT MEANS WE TAKE THE xtra BURDEN OFF our mother Earth
she's giving you clean water, air, land to use as we want & we go and make it hard on her so disrespectful.

A- NOT 'cause this is the wunderground so i give an  "A", but Dr. Masters   presentation awoke me & the crowd. i was awake from when i got there
1:40PM (entered 1:55PM) till after the break ~3:30ish but i ate sweets and during the 2nd have had a post sugar "come down" and was nodding off as many others.

When i head the announcement "Dr. Jeff Masters" my brain said get up the guy whom keeps you interested in science talk, is next my ears was like Dextrer's
ears in hearing the underwater ripple of "fish" - An inside (Wxunderground) joke.. If i may digress a bit to thank the women on how  great they looked, Stephanie Abrams got ones attention much more eye popping than i thought WOW!. Haven't
watched TWCh since 2003, its a Time Warner thing.  This from a person (i) that took 2 NYC cable companies/ 1 in NJ to court w/ GREAT help from then Senator Howard Metzenbaum (OHIO). The COMPLETE HUMAN BEING late Sen. Metzsabaum (Ohio) then took my papers to bring TWCh on 24/7 from NY/NJ cases to a Conn. case so the judge there could review the case thus have a better chance of enforcing that TWCh be carried, than having 3-4 watered down court  decisions.  Stephanie Abrams had some interesting conversations with a panel but it was to fast as to the give n take chat. The 2nd guy from Stephanie did a great job the other 3 seemed more like a quick bar talk on ones favorite sports teams stats, lots of important numbers & info but hard to follow (like my blog except i do that purposely). OKay the digressing is done, FOR NOW.

Dr. Masters after Mayor Bloomberg was the best to articulate their points. Bloomberg spoke longer tripped on some words but was smooth to cover up those "trips". Dr. Masters to the point (seemed he got the short end as to time, being last, yet he AWOKE the crowd with his VERY IMPRESSIVE guests. My favorite was the 3rd from the Dr. whose invention turn CO2 (air pollutants) to plastics that is ingenious AND Feasible (easy to get society to invest into), what makes ideas  lourish as helps both sides those whom want take the strain off nature so nature
doesn't remove humans from her guests list yet attracts those whom want to make money thus fund the project.

Next was the young lady from  MIT??? who present a way to use spent atomic fuel  therefore instead of having atomic waste in barrels, as she said that can't be made to hold atomic waste for thousands of years. Instead we use the atomic  waste vast "HIDDEN" energies thus lowering the opportunity for major hazards as the use of spent atomic fuel with her invention can still create much energy but at lower  "temps" which in turn create lower opportunities for hazardous emissions  through accidents.

Oh oh, i'm digressing again (beauty does that to my mind) If i may also state since i'm a being who places much "weight" on the visual if i may,  compliment the beauty  that encompassed the young lady from MIT, don't think of me as being a "guy" but that it adds to a persons ability to attract more to their work as she gets  he attention of those in the scientific community & those whom might not care of science but stop when they see something attractive then are "pulled in" by her work.

What would one rather have 4 of every 10 people supporting a cause that helps  ature or 8 of 10?  A man or woman that looks "sharper/attractive" gets more  attention. The man w/ the foul mouth was attractive. Guess what those that found  him attractive gave him more attention. If you're upset w/ that blame evolution or Gawd or a civilization at 22 degrees N of Equatorial space whom are 6 k years ahead of Earth as to science, in using a science i call "Galacsics" (not misspelled) one can much more easily find life "near by" on other complex planets by a spiral energy output not yet readable by our physics grounded instruments....crazy  search for my other clues like the planet's "space" area code...NGC #4***, here is another CLUE, pick a number in between 0 & 9.

Was hoping to give Dr. Masters some pages on my theories but i had to get my  Apt. (~2 miles east) i walk Manhattan, the greenest way to enjoy my home town. Hec* i walk 40 blocks to get the best deals on my grocery plus it keeps me uhhh  ... trum. Trum? a bit heavier than trim.. As soon as Dr. Masters ended his segment he was surrounded by people, i figured he won't listen to a guy whom has weird theories & no one knows or cares to know (spent 20-30 k of MY hard working  money over 30yrs communicating to scientist & though i see other receiving  awards for ideas/theories i stated years.decades before i guess my style of doing things quietly cause of its dangerous side as able to  destroy civilizations from the inside out in seconds leaving only dust i.e. internal combustion like results, so i quietly go one on another country's blog.  BTW if you're new to Wxunderground 
i state i invented a device that influences nature/weather (see my "vis0" blog classic / modern explorer view)  and i say uses the ULTIMATE method of lowering toxicities we put out, that being that we use the REAL SOLAR POWER, WIND as i state one day it will power 60% of our energy grid/needs thus illuminates all  "artificially" induced energies which by being artificial, add waste as their  bi-product.

So, i got my toxic "you could sniff it" from a mile away,  weather channel umbrella and scooted home then parents Apt. to help them as Father is now disabled both in their late 80s.


 In conclusion being i state i prefer to call it Climate Schizo not GW i'm happy to  see many losing the GW term, TO ME "GW" was a nice way for Mr. Gore
(VP) to bring attention to the seriousness of the matter (and lets be honest himself, hey its politics) but to keep that term "GW" once he stopped "running" made it  worse, cause Nature in cleaning the artificial pollutants goes "haywire" (watch) in shortening" the "sin-wave" signatures of cooler to warmer and vice versa
EVENTUALLY more warmer than cooler YES but TO ME its worse on humanity & business if its harder to predict the weather/climate  by so many fluctuations than  if it where only a straight hard incline line of warming.
.
 For my following TOOTing of my own horm, refer to my HARD TO read (last WxU) blog HERE.   3 graphs  of the many i saw at this meeting  i think showed my ml-d influencing weather, for one look at the ice melt off Greenland. Notice though the presenter pointed out how fast the ice if leaving (3D ice is how it should be  presented not just the visible or 2 dimensional layers. If one counts their money one doesn't just count the top bill one looks through the depth of their wealth, in nature look at the depth of things. Now, if one looks at the east side of  Greenland
its building ice which it has to do by layering meaning we have to wait several years to see if its a trend of a Climate schizo effect (latter i say happens in 2-3 years segments and a quite Star (Sun) adds to that period, in the last blog in 2 wks posting CLUEs as to the EQUATORIAL VERSION of Aurora Borealis which show up as quick  turning /floating plasma balls nearer to the Equator (though can  moved toward polar regions up to ~66% (!60-75 Lat lines N or S) usually near
certain Volcanic crystal activities, this happens more BEFORE the   star/sun
sends energy inward...inward?

CLUE TIME!:  Black holes DO ALLOW LIGHT to escape VIA LOW i MEAN LOW as 0.0000000000000001
to at least 0.0000000000000000000000000000001 u-db
resonances (~sound, yes throughout space its also an indirect clue to why i state there are 5 "lights" faster than 186,400 mps) & that is in turn recycled by light
outputs some mistaken as presently (2013...) titled "Galaxy clusters" to three point  Novae, ancients "gnowledge" (knowledge misspelled as a CLUE) holders titled "the Atlantis effect/reactor". We in not understanding  this think Atlantis just an island on a Planet, its a circular repeating tri-island of reinforcing ABS0 sub atomic  sieves energy
... HUH? ah skip it.just hold clues when its discovered, wonder how?


Maybe in 100 yrs (i wish my science knowledge friends say it'll take over 500 yrs to figure what i CLUE)   DIGRESSING AGAIN!!!

The melting side of Greenland is ~3 times faster in losing 3D ice than its replenishing.  (Dr. Masters try using rotating Lower colour graphs (even a simple stick figure 3D sketch, very low KB) to show this, compare to a human from a 1 or 2 dimension image from the back. Show the human with lover handles then w/o  love handles ask hpow much weight did that human lose if he weighed 240lbs
at 5'8" (that's me...i'm husky) most might guess 10-20 lbs. Now show the
same man revolving and show his heavy gut then non now in 3D we guess the man lost 40-50 lbs, same as with the ice, its a guy upside down and the heating  from artificial pollutants has Mr. Iceberg (wrong he's Puerto Rican) losing his belly, in this case that's not good.

 i state OUTSIDE  the ml-d  its area of influence (AOI, again see graphics on my blog, skip reading it if it gives you a headache)  creates what i call RESPonding HIGHS (why you saw i THINK sinking air re-building so quickly in CERTAIN weather trend years as this) those HIGHS  heat output (compression etcetera,  etc.) fall around the ml-d AOI and one of those areas is on  the western half of  Greenland. 'Cause physics states both sides East & West should melt evenly or the east side a tiny bit faster but its the west side by 3 times that is melting. Again,  please see my last blog for graphics on the ml-d...no i wasn't drinking at the  convention, they had no milk, i'm a milk & cookies man, i'll kick yer a** while i'm  dunking my choco-chip,peace
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