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New Atlantic tropical storm--from July

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on December 19, 2006

The hurricane season of 2006 has a new tropical storm. No, it's not one of those rare December tropical storms. The new storm occurred back in July, according to a post-season analysis released by the National Hurricane Center Friday. The unnamed storm formed about 240 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts on July 17 from the remains of a cold front that had pushed off the East Coast on July 13. The unnamed storm started off as an extratropical storm, then passed over the warm 28-29 C waters of the Gulf Stream, which helped it make the transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. At its peak intensity, the unnamed storm had winds of 50 mph at the surface. As it moved northeastward, it passed into much colder waters, and died 24 hours after becoming a tropical storm. There were no reports of damage or injuries.


Figure 1. Unnamed tropical storm of July 17, 2006 (labeled "Extratropical (subtropical?) low" in my blog from July 17).

It is often difficult to be certain in real time if a short-lived storm is fully tropical and deserves a name. If the storm is not a threat to land, NHC will usually play it conservative, and rely on an end-of-season post-analysis using data that is not available in real time to determine if a borderline system was a tropical storm or not. In my blog from July 17 of this year, I noted, "To my eye, the system is probably a subtropical storm, and technically should be classified as Subtropical Depression Two. However, is it difficult to tell for sure, and the NHC is conservatively not naming it, since it is headed towards colder water and has little chance of becoming a full tropical storm." This is the second year in row NHC has analyzed a new tropical storm after the season was over. Last year, "Should have been Tammy" got rooked out of name; this year's storm--"Should have been Beryl"--brings the statistics for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season exactly to average for named storms--ten--and one below normal for hurricanes, five.

For information about Tropical Cyclone Bondo near Madgascar, which is near Category 5 intensity, see Margie Kieper's excellent View From the Surface blog. The cyclone passed only 37 km south of Agalega, Mauritius, today.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks

In other news, Bondo is forecast to become a Category 5 cyclone in the Indian Ocean:



Currently - 105 kts, 938 mb; JTWC forecast
So much chaos in the world - scary stuff.
I went to school with a guy named Bondo.
I had a truck named Bondo.....
I put stuff named Bondo on my car one time - that's because a deer made me do it!
"NHC will usually play it conservative, and rely on an end-of-season post-analysis using data that is not available in real time to determine if a borderline system was a tropical storm or not."
What are the types of data not available in real time,Dr. Masters?
Wow!

Your suspicion of a bombing out cyclone has been confirmed STL.
WWIO21 KNES 191521
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN METEOSAT-5 IRNIGHT
.
DECEMBER 19 2006 1430Z BONDO (05S)
.
10.7S 58.0E T6.0/6.0/D3.5/24HRS
.
PAST POSITIONS....10.7S 59.9E 19/0230Z VIS
11.0S 62.3E 18/1430Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS....BONDO HAS FORMED A WMG EYE AND A .62DEGREE WHITE
SURROUNDING RING FOR A DT OF 7.0. MET DISAGREES AT A 4.5 DUE TO
RAPID DEVELOPMENT. FT OF 6.0 BASED ON DT. CONSTRAINTS HAVE BEEN
BROKEN DUE TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 19/2200Z.
Oh this bugs me... Looking back from the blog of that day...

Posted By: Skyepony at 7:27 PM GMT on July 17, 2006.

Anyone know why QUICKSCAT is down?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Posted By: guygee at 2:48 AM GMT on July 18, 2006.

Hey Skye - I noticed that quicksat wasn't updating (re: your question way back in the blog) but I think it the data is flowing again...latest pass misses the 97L area, though.

Weird, if you go to the main QuikSCAT Storm Page and click on "Home", I get links to Pr0n sites...I sent the page administrator an email to fix his link...Maybe it was vandalized?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Posted By: Skyepony at 3:05 AM GMT on July 18, 2006.

Guygee, thanks. I went back & checked it. Seems all the normal passes aren't there yet. But since some of that data is up to 22 hrs old, probibly be near a full day to getting the globe covered in vectors again. Least it's running. I noticed the high resolution looked just like it did this time lastnight. Guess more fixing there.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

From the report of this unnammed TS

A QuikSCAT pass at 2234 UTC 17 July also strongly suggests the system was a tropical cyclone.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

We never saw that pass! Last season was riddled with unexplained blackouts of buoys, quikscats & other things, all at critical times. In this case others could see them but not us. Why? What's the point? It wasn't evening threating land. Or was that the reason. On other occations this tended to happen with no where near land storms. Was it beyond conservative? More like keep the # of storms low? We had no such troubles in '05.
I have made a new blog if anyone wants to check it out.

Link

Warning! Blog is weather related!
Bondo has quite an intense little core!



It reminds me a bit of Wilma...
Bondo the cyclops is staring at you!



My guess (and it is a guess only!) is that Bondo will start to weaken in 12-24 hours as an eyewall replacement cycle begins. A tropical cyclone can't hold a small core like that for very long.
Weekly ENSO update out.Model mean has nuetral conditions by hurricane season, and if the decreasing trend continues, a cool bias by October.
1900, can you make that a clickable thumbnail or a link? I don't want ImageShack to block it (it is 1.3 MB and the limit is only 100 MB per hour, which is not many downloads, considering that this is Dr. M's blog). The thumbnails for ImageShack have .th added between the image name and extension (like this: http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/3161/whitexmasnh4.th.gif); making a link with the original URL and this makes a clickable thumbnail.
TRMM on Bondo
Ok. Sorry STL.
TIME............ Storm Status...... Center Pressure..... Sustained 10 min winds..


18/12/2006 12:00 Perturbation tropicale 1000 hpa 25 kt

18/12/2006 18:00 DEPRESSION tropicale 998 hpa 30 kt

19/12/2006 00:00 TEMPETE tropicale modere 992 hpa 40 kt

19/12/2006 06:00 Forte TEMPETE tropicale 976hpa 60 kt

19/12/2006 12:00 CYCLONE tropical 950hpa 85 kt

19/12/2006 18:00 Cyclone tropical intense 925 hpa unknown 10 min sustained winds
That is a drop in pressure of 73 mb between 18z yesterday and 18z today; according to the JTWC, it dropped from 991 mb to 910 mb in the same period, an incredible drop of 81 mb... approaching the drop in Wilma's pressure (98 mb in a day)...
Another of those freak storms. TD yesterday & outta hand today.
A great loop of bondo Link
Trami was once feared, but she is gone now.

trami
Looking at that loop stormchasher posted, I wonder if we will see an invest to Bondo's NE.

Bondo on Infrared


No mimic on it I can find.


credit both to MIT
Here's Bondo on the NOGAPS & GFS models.
How exciting. Doesn't look like it'll landfall for a while.
I give the CMC credit for forecasting Bondo's intensification; a few days ago, the forecast phase diagram looked like Katrina's (they archive many storms, mostly Atlantic, so you can see what a given intensity storm looks like). This is also what the CMC forecasted for certain other recent storms... so what Bondo did does not surprise me at all.
They haven't had MIMIC on any of the storms recently, which makes me a little mad. I use the MIMIC images all the time: from showing showing current storms and making forcasts to supporting my blog topic (about giant eyewalls). MIMIC is so useful because it lets you get a look "under the hood" of these monsters.
Bondo brings back memories...



Bondo.



The memory.
give you a bump
What is a bump?
Puts the blog back on top of the list.
Hi Atmos.
and thats wht i did i gave this blog a bump to put it back on top some one most have post in the older blogs and i gave it a bump to get the blog back up onn top
Hey ryan, how ya doing?
Not much.And u ?
Looks like mostly rain to me.
Doing ok over here. It's sooo warm LOL! WE've hit 80 degrees for the 3rd day in a row and it's supposed to be Christmas!!!
Ahh it was snow.
I think...
Just checked Godthab's conditions yesterday and they had snow.
Please check out my blog and tell me what you think.

Link
CB~ Yesterday when ya asked about Greenland I had looked it up on WU. Some places snowing others raining, got distracted, guess I forgot to post. Tonight it's all snow falling.
Prins Christian Sund, Greenland yesterday
Tonight's NOVA is The Wave that shook the world

Experts reconstruct the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in an effort to prepare for the next big one 8pm EST
Hello from 11n 61 w. And how is everybody today. I'm doing greatly, thank you, and have enjoyed a wonderful tropical day, with gentle showers and balmy breezes out of the ESE. All is well here, and I trust all is well wherever you read this.......
At 0000 UTC 20 December, Mto-France reported the centre of Intense Tropical Cyclone Bondo to be located near 10.8S, 56.2E, or about 1,120 km (700 miles) north of the coast of Runion. Its maximum sustained 10-minute winds were 110 kt (210 km/h, 130 mph), with gusts to 155 kt (290 km/h, 180 mph). Its estimated minimum central pressure was 915 hPa.

110 knots is about 140 knots NRL/JTWC.
SKYE, did you see me post of appreciation for the links on Atl flow etc that you posted ? If not, thanks a google........
Evening Pottery. 80 here today...nice breeze with a few scattered showers this morning. You know...the usual.
Yeah Drewl. Just a little bit of blissful Christmas weather. I hear you expect a wet one this w/e ?
It's looking that way Pottery. Showers all through till Christmas...getting heavy on Sunday night. We don't mind....beats a hard freeze man!
Well I'm sure a little rain is not going to prevent you having a Good and Blessed day on Monday. I'll drink a toast to you at the appointed hour.
In fact , I'll drink a toast to you NOW. Hows that ?
LOL....I'll drink to that!
Hi all,

I would like to [modestly] put dibs on posting something about this storm Bondo first, back when it was a mere TD. Having finished my long work day, I can now go to EUMETSAT's website to see what they have in terms of pics available.

That is a pretty powerful storm for what is the equivalent of June on our cycle. Imagine a storm that strong in JUNE!
oooooooooops, I think Drewl fell off his stool. You OK Rand ?
........Evening all! Been a while.

Good to see everyone Rand, atmos, Stl, Skye, 1900 and whoever else I forgot there...

At EUMETSAT, u can get a fair, if oblique, look at Bondo blowing up. Click on the AIRMASS picture and select sector six in the resulting window. There is a 24-hr loop available for the interested.

Boy, did that blow up fast!
Thats a good point, Baha....Down here we learned in school

June too soon
July stand by
August a must
September REMEMBER
October, all over
My goodness...StormJunkie....I almost forgot how to spell that. How you doin?
Hi Storm, long time......
Been good...Just busy. Not to mention I have to try and make up for how much time I spend hear during the season...


Nice link Baha...
Evening pottery

Not sure I recognize the handle, or do you have an alias :)
Were you here this season?......I don't remember.
Here's to you and your family this Christmas season StormJunkie.....from myself and mine. I still refer some of the newbies to your site and they say....who the hell is that? LOL!
I like the colours lol.

No, seriously, right now that website is the only one that seems to have consistent coverage of the Indian Ocean. In fact, if u click on the link at the top of the satellite image page, u will find Meteo-5 (I think it's 5) which gives less beautiful and sometimes less uptodate data; however, it is focused on like 63E or something, which puts it over the Central Indian Ocean.
Hey, Pottery,

Yeah, I have heard that too. I was just talking with my mom tonight about how people survived tropical systems in the days when there were no satellites etc. and even before radio. We haven't much elevation in the Bahamas (I like to tell people that here, 206 ft isn't a hill, it's a mountain lol) but whatever little can be found is where most people headed in the old days. She was also telling me about some caves that the families in her settlement would use as shelter from hurricanes. Apparently roofs regularly blew off.
Hey there SJ.
lol Rand. I really have to get busy with a few things I want to update before next season. I have some great lightening video and pics to get up, and I really need to remove the Chs weather page, as well as go over and add some links.
Evening Baha
Don't be such a stranger SJ...drop me a line sometimes. We've had a lot of fun this year.
I'm usually around somewhere. Have a great Christmas.
No Storm, I dont have another handle, but I'm sure I saw yours earlier this year. Forgive me if I'm wrong.
Baha, I never knew there were caves there. On the coast or what ?
No, I would think you are correct pottery, for some reason I just can't place pottery, I would think that would stick in the thick skull...lol

Anywho, y'all have a great night.

pot, Rand, I'll toast you both right after dinner ;)

Always nice to hear from StormJunkie.
Yeah, pottery,

This is a limestone archipelago, which means rain is enough to form caves. Most caves are on the sides of the sand-dune like ridges of hills that run parallel to the coasts of most islands here. These caves are parallel to the blue hole structures often found throughout the islands. Blue holes, however, are usually filled with salt water and connected to the sea through series of channels sometimes miles long.
Sounds good Baha. We have one similiar hole on the small island of Gasparee, which is connected to the sea as well. Its tidal but no one has ever found the passage...
Back to Bondo,

The other interesting thing I noticed, either yesterday or Sunday evening, was how close to the equator the TD formed. I seriously doubt it was much below 5 degrees S before it started. That gives it even more warm water to run over before it meets any serious obstacles.

What this is making clear to me more than anything is that each basin is going to have some unique parameters that will influence TS formation. I can't expect typhoons in the Indian ocean to perform / react in exactly the same ways hurricanes do in the ATL.
Another interesting thing to find out about: What kind of ocean currents run along the E African coast? That would surely influence cyclone behaviour as well . . .
Elevation..Wooooo Hoooooooo!
evere time you see a pine hole eye you get a cat 4 or 5 vary fast


The only storm surge video youll ever need to see Came up in St Bernard Parish in 30 minutes.Aug 29th 05...Vacarella Family
Baha, Bondo is at about 11 s and up to 135 mph already. I would have thought the corialis eff. would not have kicked in so soon ?
Rare footage of Flooding in New orleans in 1965 after Hurricane Betsy,,St Bernard again
Well, Patrap,

That was interesting . . . .
Thats how Katrina brought the surge ..Fast.The Lower Parishes to the east got wacked.The lake took the filling but the outfall canals couldnt.
the local landfall archived radar loop shows the Storm pushing the water in.note the time and cue it with the next video.The only one of a Floodwall failing.The 17 Linkthstreet Canal.
Heres the video of the 17th St Canal Breech after it happened around 9am cst.I was 1 mile west of here.
I think it must have something to do with the shape of the ocean, as well as with the location of trade winds etc.

I'll have to read more about that, too.

On the currents, so far I found out that there are two current systems. The northern one has seasonal flow depending on the direction the wind is blowing from. The southern one flows generally anticlockwise. This seems to suggest that storms heading towards Africa would have a constant warm-water source even as they move away from the equator.

I found this page just now. I don't know how useful it is yet. Meanwhile I am still looking for a decent diagram giving an overview.
The video below was shot from the lake marina Condo on the right.This pic taken around Sept 12th.After the Breach was sealed .The helo is carrying 2000lb sandbags to other levees..6
The Breach and Surrounding Areas August 30th..click to ENLARGE Link
According to the Navy, the windspeed of Bondo has increased to 135 kts. (155 mph.) and the pressure has dropped to 904 mbs.





Impressive, isn't it?
Gafilo was the strongest storm recorded in the South Indian Ocean with winds of 140 kts. (1 min. sustained) and a pressure of 895 mbs, but it looks like he might have a run for his money now.
Dr. Jeff Masters has mail!
Bondo, the Indian Monica?
Dont worry 1900 Bondo will break that record thats about an 93% chance unless Eye Wall Replacment cycle begins soon.
ST0.7/0.7 BONDO -- South Indian Ocean

the SSD dyslexic?
Hmm, 7.0 is 140 kts, so Bondo is a Category 5 now. I'm gonna measure the eye but it looks to be a lot smaller than this afternoon.
It's a 5.7 mile wide eye, and still shrinking. I would expect a EWRC in the next 12-18 hours.
Man this Storm is incredible wow can this be happening in the Southren Indian Ocean, the SST are very warm. But unusaly Warm.
the eye appears too small to measure from satellite radar.
It's measurable with the NAVY satellite, I managed to get a pretty zoomed in view of it.
Wondering, When will the EWRC begin? If atmos is Correct we should see an Full Blown CAT-5.
Good job Atmos...keep going.
I can see on IR images an outer rainband about 25 miles out from the center trying to organize and consolidate. If this continues then the EWRC will begin within 12 hours, but I don't think it will consolidate that quickly. I expect Bondo to peak between 150 kts and 155 kts before an EWRC tomorrow afternoon or evening.
Incredible footage there Patrap. Nice link Baha:) Bondo looks to have a good shot at the record. It's blown up so fast it's waves haven't had a chance to catch up with it's wind yet.

Shear in the Indian Ocean. Looks like it is increasing infront of the storm.
That may impede intensification.Maybe not as strong after all.Does anyone know why there are no quickscats recently for Bondo?
There's none on the storm page, but here's one from a little over 2 hrs ago


It looks like it forecasted to be kinda slow, so shouldn't reach the shear for a bit, if it is still there, could be why it drops to a 4 in the forecast there.
Check my blog for details on the possible New Year's Day snowstorm in Florida.
No typo
Oh now that would be fun.
good night
Posted By: weatherboykris at 4:54 AM GMT on December 20, 2006.

Check my blog for details on the possible New Year's Day snowstorm in Florida.

Finialy! A White New Years in Flordia were i live.
Al Gore Caught Warming Globe To Increase Box Office Profits

Article
More records for this year:

The Weather Forecast Office in St. Louis, Missouri experienced more severe weather than any other office in the National Weather Service this year, with a total of 723 severe weather events recorded.

The 2006 tornado count for Missouri and Illinois this year surpassed the previous record year of 2003 when 84 tornadoes were recorded in Missouri and 120 in Illinois.

102 tornadoes in Missouri
124 tornadoes in Illinois
More
Bondo appears to be finishing its EWRC:



CMC forecast:

Good morning,

Not sure if this has been posted on the blog yet but it looks like el nino may already be some signs that el nino may be starting to slowly fade away occording to the lastest bom enso update.

LASTEST BOM UPDATE
For the Crawfish they caught in Arabi...LOL!
Quick check on Bondo. Slightly weaker according to the Navy 120kts, 922mbs.

CB~ No, neither is the melting of the sea ice in the NW Artic, down the west side of greenland & in the Hudson bay that started just over a week ago.

Have you ever looked at the CPC's El Nino page, which I always look at? They have tons of information, graphs and other stuff.
Overall in my opinion i expect el nino conditions to slowly fade away and be a non-factor come june 1.
The CPC also updates every week, including a detailed PDF/PPT (the diagnostics discussion is only monthly, but it does not really say much, compared to the weekly updates or the weekly-updated stuff on the main El Nino page).
I'm with MichaelSTL on the CPC is the word on ENSO. That site is more than a wealth of info. We've been discussing the impending peak for a month or so now. Here's their latest models, which have switched to our thoughts on it.


That's a cruel track by the CMC.
GFS amd NOGAPS tracks:

That Nogaps track would be bad, skimming the coast, not weakening as much. Mit models.

Someone got a topo of the area?
It looks like Bondo is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Here is a 85GHzH image and a color image form 6-12 hours ago. It's not brand new, but it is the most recent I can get, and it still shows the impending eyewall replacement cycle.



Population density map of Africa.

q
Topogrophy of Madagascar.

The new eye should be popping out any time now, and intensification will resume:

Never mind. I found a better one.

The very low resolution, which is less than 6 hrs old, doesn't show a complete eyewall...

Up til 3 hrs ago things seemed fine...Suddenly we got no wind data from the Met-5.
That's a little odd...
Good afternoon. I see a recent post from Randrewl, showing that Al Gore ideas have been debunked. Shuks man, Now I have to admit that I thought he was on to something and now we are both discredited. You just cant trust anyone these days. Not even me.........
Looks like the large eye is about to clear out.

NRL has winds at 105kts...
Actually you can't trust The Onion. They just make up funny stories, get happy with photoshop & call it the news, all in fun. Pretty funny Al Gore with his blow torch pack & all.
Just checking in to tell every one have a merry christmas and happy 2007....i will back soon........and check out my latest blog entry.
The Onion? LOL...

Here is something that I came across a long time ago, the first that I heard of them... obviously not real.
Hey weather456 whats been up with up with you?Happy holidays to you to.
yeah Skye, I had a loud Laff..........
all is well h23
Cant stay...later
Happy Holidays Weather456!

That's a classic there MichaelSTL...
Latest microwave images are in, and they're good!





Judging by those images, I would say Bondo is still weakining. The eye is oblong and the entire system is asymitrical, with most of the good structure off to the west side.
The WindSat also got a decent shot of the cyclone.

The asymitricalness can be seen on the Infared now.

Looks like Bondo's rain rate around in the core is about 1/2" per hr.
It looks like we have another winter storm moving in for the Midwest E and SE. A low is supposed to develop over the gulf and bring some much needed rain.

There is a cool low chugging along beneath Cuba now. Station 42057 - Western Caribbean
Popping my head in after several weeks of absence...

Merry Christmas to all the weatherheads.

Floodie
Hmm what *IF* we see a Wilma in 07, or somthing stronger than wilma or Tip.
I guess this front will pick that Caribbean low up.
Eye for Bondo starting to pop out u can see some clearing in the eye area. EWRC is eaither done or almost done.

It is sad though, Looks how uncemmentrical Bondo is now last night it looked like Wilma and now it looks like somthing like Florence as a CAT 1
There are a Future Lows and existing cyclones showing up in and near the Gulf on the cyclone phase evolution maps for a few of the models. I wonder if we are not in for a Pre Christmas Eve Storm?
Wierd little mesoscale disturbance approaching the GA coast:

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=JAX&lat=31.18650055&lon=-81.37229919&label=Saint+ Simons+Island%2C+GA&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom& num=6&delay=15&scale=1&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0
If anyone has any intrest in my giant eyewall resarch, if you have a question, or just want to say hi, come over to my blog.
Im dreaming of an Extratropical Christmas... - just like the one in March before.
AMSU intensity estimate for Bondo:

AMSU01 FMEE 201333
CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S
Wednesday 20dec06 Time: 1333 UTC
Latitude: -9.88 Longitude: 53.73
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 4 [130]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 951 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 101 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Poor ( +/- 17mb +/- 20kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -16 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.24 (channel used for estimate)
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.00
RMW: 19 km
RMW Source is: JTWC
Environmental Pressure: 1008 (Climo)
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 12 Day: 20 Time (UTC): 1200
MIMIC IS AVAILABLE FOR BONDO!!!!!!!!!!!!



It's a little old, though.


Date : 20 DEC 2006 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 9:59:46 S Lon : 52:39:10 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 963.1mb/ 84.8kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 5.1 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -34.4C Cloud Region Temp : -76.6C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Starting to restrengthen...
The southern end of the central US front system moving out into the gulf and should start to pick up some moisture.

The gulf is about normal temp and the Caribbean is elevated. Once the low there moves up we should see more activity in the US.

Station 42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX

Station 42057 - Western Caribbean
Moisture is not a problem Here today,,
My wet exit..Link
That Mimic doesn't look as intense as the 904mb it was thought of lastnight. Where are those islands it came near on there?
MargieKieper's blog talks about Bondo's close passage to the islands... it appears to be a bust, so to speak (sustained winds were like TD strength and the center passed only 20 miles away; if it really had 150 mph winds, it would probably be a new world record for storm size).
Winter Solstice tommorrow.Suns lowest angle of the Year in Northern Hemisphere.Can ya feel the Planet tilt?
This is a awsome Picture of BondoLink
A most interesting forecast if I may say..Link
Newer MIMIC



Bondo looks like he is getting his act together.
The 12z GFS backed off on the Florida snowstorm.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST WED DEC 20 2006

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF PERIOD. UPPER LOW NOW OVER NM WILL WEAKEN TO OPEN WAVE
TROUGH AND EXIT UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DAY-4/SAT. MEANWHILE SPEED
MAX NOW OVER NWRN PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS SWRN CONUS
AND NRN MEX...EVOLVING INTO EITHER VERY STRONG OPEN-WAVE TROUGH OR
CLOSE LOW OVER TX BY DAY-5/SUN. THIS MAY INDUCE FRONTAL-WAVE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER GULF...WITH RESULTING LOW MOVING NEWD OVER SERN
CONUS DURING DAYS 5-7/SUN-TUE TIME FRAME. LACK OF PRIOR/SIGNIFICANT
COLD INTRUSIONS IN CENTRAL/ERN GULF INDICATES ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR
MAY SUPPORT SVR EVENT GIVEN OPTIMAL TIMING OF UPPER SYSTEM TO INDUCE
FAVORABLE SHEAR. UNCERTAINTIES ON CHARACTER OF UPPER TROUGH AND OF
LOW LEVEL RESPONSE PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM...THOUGH SOME
CHANCE DOES EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SVR EVENT LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN SERN STATES.

..EDWARDS.. 12/20/2006
_______________________________________________
December tornadoes are rare but not unheard of in Florida, but in Alabama...
AL Tdo

Worth keeping an eye on.
Good morning,

Just checking the NWS out of miami and its looks like a rainy christmas for south florida as low pressure developes in the GOM and moves NE across florida.

Here is a piece from there 4:00am discussion...

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA
IN A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...PULLING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CWA CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON INTO CHRISTMAS NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THERE COULD BE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE JET ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY. SO ONLY A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OVER THE
CWA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE HWO
Funny they would make that determination now.

Florida Keys Fishing