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New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting gaweatherboi:
Dude its a Dell Inspiron 1526 i think


I have a dell inspiron 1545
Question! Why doesnt anyone ever go to tropics chat? Wouldnt that be more convenient in getting immediate responses from people?
1504. SykKid
After Fred things are going to be very quiet.
Quoting gaweatherboi:
Question! Why doesnt anyone ever go to tropics chat? Wouldnt that be more convenient in getting immediate responses from people?


haha it used to get hectic when alot of people would get on, but at times like this, it would be good
Quoting tornadodude:


I have a dell inspiron 1545


How much did that cost you?
Quoting gaweatherboi:


How much did that cost you?


right at $600 from walmart
Quoting iceman55:
SykKid nope .more storm lol haha


did you just add me on fb?
Quoting iceman55:
im now


ok
Quoting tornadodude:


right at $600 from walmart


I feel cheated, i paid 1200 for this junk.
1514. SykKid
Quoting iceman55:
SykKid nope .more storm lol haha


No hurricanes!
Quoting gaweatherboi:


I feel cheated, i paid 1200 for this junk.


really? that blows.
Quoting iceman55:
Link

new modelrun


ok, now - I'm not seeing anything about the GOM....what is up? This is confusing....
Quoting tornadodude:


really? that blows.


It does really! Im going to sell it. (Back to weather) I have been having a bad feeling about that name Grace since the beginning of the hurricane season. If we get to it, it may be something big.
Quoting gaweatherboi:


It does really! Im going to sell it. (Back to weather) I have been having a bad feeling about that name Grace since the beginning of the hurricane season. If we get to it, it may be something big.


yeah you should, and yeah, grace sounds intimidating
Left Doak campbell stadium forty five minutes ago. Can't believe we lost.
In other news, is Tropical Storm Fred moving WSW?
Sry lol i'm tired :P Just NORTH of Due west 275 movement on the 11pm advisory.
Night
Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane yes gfs


on the GFS, what do I look at exactly? What one do I click on? This is the new model run right?
Models are predicting the storm should go west for the next 48 hours and then a northerly track. What other factors are in play that may push the storm more south?
i'm back what i miss lol
Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane 3 lows


hmmmm, I saw one earlier today that had a storm on top of the TX/LA border. Is it still showing that? I am not seeing it now.....Where are they showing these at now? Sorry for all the questions...
Quoting btwntx08:
i'm back what i miss lol


tropical storm fred
Quoting tornadodude:


tropical storm fred

i knew that i saw it in previous post below
Quoting iceman55:
. btwntx08 Fred here woof rufffff

nice ummm is gfs still showing a storm forming
Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane did u see it


Don't think so....can you give me a specific link or something please....
goodnight guys!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 080532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 245 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA TODAY AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Someone said TS Fred is moving a few degrees north of west. Therefore the center of Fred had just jogged southward but was/is not moving wsw.
iceman how about an recent image of fred
Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane any hope ??


ok, so 2 aoi going into LA? Is that what you are seeing? I saw something kinda in the middle of Texas as well. Am I seeing just 1 going into different places or is there more than one? Just trying to figure this out...
I tell you everyone in Doak thought the last pass was a TD. It was pure shock. We should have won the game but instead UM did the standard hook in the last quarter. There were three UM fans in section 5-4 and they were about to be eaten alive.
Fred won't make it to the east coast because Wilma locked him out.
Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane yep :)


ok, so I guess I need to still keep an eye on the GOM then.....? At first I was thinking that they weren't showing anything anymore...
looks like it has a storm heading toward cc not good
test
Quoting btwntx08:
looks like it has a storm heading toward cc not good


cc?
Hi-ya Frrrred!

Tropical Storm Fred
Wind: 40 MPH — Location: 11.8N 26.3W — Movement: W
Quoting iceman55:
U MEAN NEW CC

why say new cc???
Quoting TexasHurricane:


cc?

thats corpus christi
Quoting btwntx08:

why say new cc???


What is CC?
oh,ok. I got it.
Nite all...I will check back in tomorrow for sure...
iceman55: :o
Quoting iceman55:
ECMWF, comeing soon

how long will that take
AL, 07, 2009090806, , BEST, 0, 118N, 267W, 45, 1000, TS

Fred gettin his grove on right now

that 45 is in knots, so 50mph
Quoting iceman55:
wow cmc stall fred

does it show a system in gom with cmc
Quoting iceman55:



hmmm a low south of nola
Quoting iceman55:
btwntx08 pimp glass huh llol

yep lol
Quoting iceman55:

this one similar to gfs close by corpus christi
Quoting iceman55:



not good
wow!!!
well iceman got to go night
I really believe computer models do not have a good hold on the steering currents ahead of TS Fred. The next 48 hours should prove today's forecast track as being approximately correct or not. I think tomorrow models will be shifting the cone to the left.
It will still take a miracle in order for Fred to even come close to the United States.
convention is outstanding
Quoting apocalyps:
convention is outstanding


Sweet, I'll bring my family to the convention center to discuss Fred.
Good Morning everyone! I'm glad you're still enjoying the convention apocalyps. ;)
Well, I've looked at all the latest models concerning what may or may not develop in the GOM. I read all of the updates I could find. And still dunno what will happen. Lol. But at least I'm in good company. :)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE VICINITY IS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL ZONES...
MAINLY OUT OF THE NE TO E. SHIPS AND BUOYS ARE GENERALLY
REPORTING 1-2 FT SEAS...BUT BUOY 42055 IS SUGGESTING THAT SEAS
MIGHT BE A FT OR TWO HIGHER OVER THE SW WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE W WATERS LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SFC TROUGH OR LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE NW ZONE. WHILE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP...THERE IS SPREAD IN THE TIMING...PLACEMENT
AND INTENSITY.
FOR NOW...USING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT DAYS 4
AND 5...WHICH IS A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST.
just nothing to blog about for me. nothing has threaten Florida's east coast. I don't think we will even get a little storm. we have had decent rain but, we need a little more so we aren't in the drought again.
Good Morning all
Morning all. I see the good Doc was rather conservative in his estimate of when Fred would form..... lol.... three advisories already!

It'll be interesting to see how much Fred can strengthen before it hits the shear that's currently swiping 95L's convection.....

Later!
.
Quoting Robertn1:
just nothing to blog about for me. nothing has threaten Florida's east coast. I don't think we will even get a little storm. we have had decent rain but, we need a little more so we aren't in the drought again.


Good Morning Robert, 456,Texas, especially south Texas is in drought. At the very least this mess in the gulf should give them some relief. Have been watching on TV about the low off the east coast. Giving them problems. I agree with the guy on TWC. All those named storms didn't affect people as much as this un-named storm.
Would seem they would have some other way of designating a storm like that. If for no other reason than to have a centralized place to find out information about it. I haven't been able to find a lot on line. I could imagine being someone traveling to that area or checking on a loved ones welfare. It looks awful. While going through the models, I saw this that seems to show something headed toward east Fl. Not sure what though.

Link
..
Great update as usual 456. Thanks. Looks like ECMWF deepens the east coast low without moving it much for a couple days as you mentioned.

Link
can someone put up an image that shows both invest 96 and fred at the same time on the same image? Please and thank you
Yesterday centex pointed out that Weather456 is NHC surrogate because he agreed with the NHC that TD 7 would curve more towards the north.

Weather456 posted this after TD 7 1st advisory yesterday. Here he did not agree with the NHC intensity guidance intially and he was right per the 5am advisory.

If I was W456, I would not waste my time here, they don't obviously respect your work. By the way thanks for your update.

Quoting Weather456:
I am going slightly above the NHC intensity guidance, I think TD 7 could come close to be Hurricane Fred briefly.


INITIAL 08/0900Z 11.8N 27.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 12.1N 29.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 13.0N 30.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 13.9N 32.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 15.1N 33.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 17.5N 34.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 19.0N 34.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 20.5N 34.5W 55 KT
1623. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Good Morning Robert, 456,Texas, especially south Texas is in drought. At the very least this mess in the gulf should give them some relief. Have been watching on TV about the low off the east coast. Giving them problems. I agree with the guy on TWC. All those named storms didn't affect people as much as this un-named storm.
Would seem they would have some other way of designating a storm like that. If for no other reason than to have a centralized place to find out information about it. I haven't been able to find a lot on line. I could imagine being someone traveling to that area or checking on a loved ones welfare. It looks awful. While going through the models, I saw this that seems to show something headed toward east Fl. Not sure what though.

Link



There's too much emphasis placed on only following named storms. I'm sure the people that live in that area know what's been going on, unless they live under a rock.
Quoting zebralove:
can someone put up an image that shows both invest 96 and fred at the same time on the same image? Please and thank you


96L and Fred are the same systems.

96L developed into TD 7 and TD 7 developed into Fred. Some websites havnt updated their info as yet.
Quoting zebralove:
can someone put up an image that shows both invest 96 and fred at the same time on the same image? Please and thank you


Invest 96L became Fred yesterday lol.
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

OTHER DETAIL ISSUES INCLUDE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH THE GUIDANCE BRING NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING THE WAVE. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HERE WHICH KEEPS REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH LAST NIGHTS PROGS. 12Z MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO BRING A LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE BAROCLINIC TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY...SO IT WAS INCLUDED WITHIN THE PRESSURES AS A WEAKER FEATURE.


HPC Preliminary Graphics
Quoting IKE:



There's too much emphasis placed on only following named storms. I'm sure the people that live in that area know what's been going on, unless they live under a rock.


I'm sure they do. Was talking about other people wanting to find out information about it who aren't familiar with the area. Just a thought. No biggy.
thank you I have been cvonfused since they put up td7.....sigh am i ever gonna figure this out?
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC



THE LOW WILL MOVE NE TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN STALL WED AND WED NIGHT NE OF CAPE HATTERAS AS HIGH PRES BUILD S FROM CANADA ACROSS ERN NT1 AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SE THU WITH THE LOW THEN MOVE TO ARND THE RIDGE THU AND FRI AND EXITING THE AREA SAT.
1630. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I'm sure they do. Was talking about other people wanting to find out information about it who aren't familiar with the area. Just a thought. No biggy.


I was agreeing with your comments in the post I replied to. A non-tropical system affected the NC/SC area(heavy rains) and a tropical storm named Fred will never affect anyone. It is peculiar the way it works out.
Ensembles continue to dip Fred back sharply to the southwest.
its not a fish! what about those lucky people who live in the azores? just teasing
Quoting IKE:


I was agreeing with your comments in the post I replied to. A non-tropical system affected the NC/SC area(heavy rains) and a tropical storm named Fred will never affect anyone. It is peculiar the way it works out.


Yeah. That's what I was thinking. It would seem the man on TWC thought so too. I've never seen him before and didn't catch his name. But it was refreshing to see someone on that channel express an independent thought. Poor guy. That's probably why he got stuck in the early, early slot before AL. Lol.
There is one office (NHC) issuing advisories on TS Fred and at least six offices up the NE coast issuing advisories on the low. Between those six offices that low will be dissected every which way.
Impressive FRED!!



If the trend continues, FRED soon be hurricane
Quoting zebralove:
thank you I have been cvonfused since they put up td7.....sigh am i ever gonna figure this out?


Don't feel bad Zebralove. When you asked someone to put up a graphic showing both I looked for one. Lol. The td7 threw me too.
1637. RJT185
no update on the blog yet?? wow
Impressive

Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Yesterday centex pointed out that Weather456 is NHC surrogate because he agreed with the NHC that TD 7 would curve more towards the north.

Weather456 posted this after TD 7 1st advisory yesterday. Here he did not agree with the NHC intensity guidance intially and he was right per the 5am advisory.

If I was W456, I would not waste my time here, they don't obviously respect your work.
Since when is being in this blog a waste of time? And if it is a waste of time, what are u doing in here "wasting time"? and finally, Who says "they" don't respect 456's work?

I find comments like the one quoted presumptous, ingratiating in a nauseating way, and just plain irritating.

BTW, 456, I'm sure u understand the level of appreciation for your wx opinions the blog generally has.

Good Morning. I am a cooperative weather ovserver here on Ocracoke Island on the Outer Banks of NC. We have had 7.30 inches of rain since yesterday morning at 0200 09/07/09 until this morning 0630 09/08/09 associated with the low pressure area near the NC coast.
i read 456's blog alot and pay close attention to his post here. notice how 456's home islands are tucked in that little part of the caribean a pirates oasis.
1642. kachina
Quoting Weather456:


96L and Fred are the same systems.

96L developed into TD 7 and TD 7 developed into Fred. Some websites havnt updated their info as yet.


Thanks for sorting that out for me! I was confused too....now I get it! :)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Since when is being in this blog a waste of time? And if it is a waste of time, what are u doing in here "wasting time"? and finally, Who says "they" don't respect 456's work?

I find comments like the one quoted presumptous, ingratiating in a nauseating way, and just plain irritating.

BTW, 456, I'm sure u understand the level of appreciation for your wx opinions the blog generally has.



that's why i didn't even bother with the comment.
Quoting OcracokeISL:
Good Morning. I am a cooperative weather ovserver here on Ocracoke Island on the Outer Banks of NC. We have had 7.30 inches of rain since yesterday morning at 0200 09/07/09 until this morning 0630 09/08/09 associated with the low pressure area near the NC coast.


Good morning. And that's a lot of rain. I hope you don't get too much more. :( That thing looks terrible. I hope the rain slows and doesn't flood any homes. If it hasn't already. Thanks for letting us know how things are up there. Try to stay dry. :)
The only difference between a TD and the Carolina low is a name. Same effects without the name.

A "name" adds power and importance to a system but too much emphasis is placed on "named" systems.
1646. RJT185
Quoting OcracokeISL:
Good Morning. I am a cooperative weather ovserver here on Ocracoke Island on the Outer Banks of NC. We have had 7.30 inches of rain since yesterday morning at 0200 09/07/09 until this morning 0630 09/08/09 associated with the low pressure area near the NC coast.


thanks for the update!
Quoting AllStar17:
Ensembles continue to dip Fred back sharply to the southwest.

1 question Does any1 know why is will turn sharply?
1648. kachina
Quoting IKE:


I was agreeing with your comments in the post I replied to. A non-tropical system affected the NC/SC area(heavy rains) and a tropical storm named Fred will never affect anyone. It is peculiar the way it works out.


A friend was telling me about an unnamed storm that caused a lot of flooding and wind damage to her home in Florida (she thought in 1999). She said it did more damage than any of the named storms that year.

So, yes it's odd how that works out.

(and good morning everyone!)
well I feel better knowing I am not the only one confused lol
Low level swirl (19.1N 56.8W) TAFB has been forecasting to dissipate for days now. Shear becomes somewhat favorable briefly in that general area in 36 hours, at least GFS shear forecast.




Holiday beach wx must have been miserable.

Quoting ChrisDcane:

1 question Does any1 know why is will turn sharply?


I don't know the answer to that one. However this model shows it and the position of the high above Fred. The Euro is also calling for a negative NAO for the next few days at least. And that means the Bermuda high is placed farther to the west. Which, to me, this shows also. I am glad there's supposed to be another trough to cause a weakness before he could reach land. Hopefully.

Link
1653. kachina
Quoting Weather456:
Holiday beach wx must have been miserable.



And the drive to work this morning must be awful as well.
Quoting ChrisDcane:

1 question Does any1 know why is will turn sharply?


hope this help

Repost from last night

Initial the cyclone is moving westward, maybe south thereof due to the Azores High.

However, it eventually turns more northward as a trough breaks down the high and create a weakness.

After that trough passes, high pressure rebuilds and TD 7 resumes wnw (that is if it does not re-curve the 1st time)

Last, at the end of the forecast cycle, another weakness develops and TD moves toward it, they meet near 50-60W. The question is, will this recurve it becuz if it misses this 1, it brings it closer to Bermuda as the TD 7 meet the 3rd and final trough near 70W.





Eyewall of Fred???
Ok here's my two cents, Fred does not follow the models.. I mean come on now lol, there just computer models. They might not be right.
Quoting cyclonekid:
Eyewall of Fred???


convincing
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Good morning. And that's a lot of rain. I hope you don't get too much more. :( That thing looks terrible. I hope the rain slows and doesn't flood any homes. If it hasn't already. Thanks for letting us know how things are up there. Try to stay dry. :)


Most of the rain is about over with. The low pressure area should stall just north of the Outer Banks for a few days per the NWS forecast.
Quoting OcracokeISL:


Most of the rain is about over with. The low pressure area should stall just north of the Outer Banks for a few day per the NWS forecast.


I'm glad the rain's tapering off. :)
Quoting reedzone:
Ok here's my two cents, Fred does not follow the models.. I mean come on now lol, there just computer models. They might not be right.


Lol. Reed, if Fred tuns out to be another Erika I won't have any hair left to pull out! She gave the models, forecasters and us fits. Lol. What a weird year!
Quoting AllStar17:
Ensembles continue to dip Fred back sharply to the southwest.


1 question Does any1 know why is will turn sharply?

----------------------------------------------
My thinking is the ensemble members show a much weaker system than the operational GFS, so they are less affected by the trough and steared more by the low level flow.

End of each ensemble member, last value is strength in knots:

AL 07 2009090800 03 AP01 132 146N 415W 12
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP02 126 165N 430W 17
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP03 144 138N 442W 13
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP04 144 179N 411W 12
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP05 132 179N 392W 15
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP06 126 203N 383W 14
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP07 144 140N 448W 12
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP08 132 142N 410W 12
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP09 150 177N 432W 10
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP10 108 164N 371W 15
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP11 138 138N 437W 10
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP12 132 161N 420W 13
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP13 144 138N 451W 10
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP14 120 158N 391W 15
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP15 138 134N 426W 10
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP16 120 184N 374W 13
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP17 108 167N 377W 16
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP18 84 177N 383W 21
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP19 132 145N 450W 15
AL 07 2009090800 03 AP20 126 167N 403W 12


End of operational GFS:

AL 07 2009090800 03 AVNO 180 272N 432W 42
Remember with Erika, there were models that verified like the LBAR so there was some indications to her motion. With Fred, almost all models forecast her to turn north. if yu dont believe the models, look at the water vapor imagery.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I'm glad the rain's tapering off. :)


That's not alot of rain compared to what we had with hurricane Dennis back in 1999. During the 5 days it remained nearly stationary off of the NC coast, I recorded 19.13 inches of rain. Most of that rain 13.17 inches fell in less than 24 hours between the 30th and 31st of August.
Wouldn't be surprised if Fred is a hurricane by 11pm tonight.

Quoting StormW:


And mine! LOL!

Back in abit.


And your forecast :)
Quoting OcracokeISL:


That's not alot of rain compared to what we had with hurricane Dennis back in 1999. During the 5 days it remained nearly stationary off of the NC coast, I recorded 19.13 inches of rain. Most of that rain 13.17 inches fell in less than 24 hours between the 30th. and 31st of August.


Oh wow! That's when these storms are at their worst. When they are slow moving or stall. Allison is one that comes to mind. Erin as well. While we escaped the worst of Allison being to the east of Houston, we weren't so lucky in 1994. I'm not sure how many inches fell but it flooded areas not usually flooded, even by Ike. It was a real mess and it went on for days. I just recently found out that was caused by a stalled Pacific storm. But I can't remember which.
1669. RJT185
Why does the tropical map still show 96 & Fred separately??
1670. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. WHILE THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRED ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
My guess is that Fred will turn north while still well east of the islands. A trough to the NW of Fred can be seen dipping down and is already in the subtropical latitudes between 45W and 50W longitude. At this time of the year, troughs become stronger. Fred should soon feel the effects of the trough and begin to turn towards it.

blob hunting in the BOC is good today
1673. P451
Good morning, I see after a brief lull we've got some action out there.






Pressure:



3hr Change:

1674. P451
1675. P451
Quoting cajunkid:
blob hunting in the BOC is good today


Indeed.

I found it. The flood was compliments of Rosa.

October 24-28, 1994. Southeast and east Texas. The remnants of Pacific Hurricane Rosa dropped between 20 and 40 inches of rain. Hardest hit was Liberty County and northeast Harris County. 10 deaths and $750 million in damage.

It was a doozy. :)
Fred appears to be developing an outflow channel to the north and south, evident by a curved band trying to develop on the north side and one is already evident on the southern and eastern sides. A CDO is quite uniform although still a little small. Microwave imagery indicates that an eye and eyewall is trying to form and once this does he could strengthen a little more quickly, but rapid intensification is not likely due to the SSTs around 28C just below the 29C threshold for RI.
Quoting P451:


Indeed.



The GFS is forecasting another "Humberto" like storm in 170 - 180 hours from now.
Quoting ChrisDcane:

1 question Does any1 know why is will turn sharply?
sheared to death?
1680. Relix


Still bothers me to no end =P.
1681. Relix

Link
Middle Layer steering supports the WSW movement of the Ensembles after it gets pulled north.
Actually by looking at the steering maps, if it gets stronger, it may not pull north... According the the steering layer maps.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
I found it. The flood was compliments of Rosa.

October 24-28, 1994. Southeast and east Texas. The remnants of Pacific Hurricane Rosa dropped between 20 and 40 inches of rain. Hardest hit was Liberty County and northeast Harris County. 10 deaths and $750 million in damage.

It was a doozy. :)


Ill bet that was a mess. The flooding from hurricanes concern me more than the wind. The tidal surge is what gets us here on the island more than the rain. Hurricane Alex back in 2004 caught the local emergency planners and I think the NWS by surprise then. There was no evacuation and there was lots of stranded tourists here with flooded cars and no way to leave the island. My house also got flooded. Since then I have had the house elevated.
1684. amd
Fred could briefly become a hurricane. However, looking at the latest cimss steering maps, and the 200 mb vorticity maps, I see why Fred will turn so sharply.

There is a strong ULL located near 28 N 40 W that has actually moved to the east in the last few hours (look at the CIMSS vorticity page). Also, the 970mb-989mb cimss steering page already shows the weakness developing quite well.

Link

Link
Hmmm? Reading about Allison. I knew she was bad but I didn't know some of these things.

Pre-Rita and pre-Ike.


June 6-12, 2001. Southeast Texas. The remnants of Tropical Storm Allison produced the worst natural disaster in Houston's history when 25 to 45 inches of rain fell as the storm meandered across southeast Texas. Damage was especially severe in the downtown area. The costliest storm in Texas history with $5 billion of the $6 billion in damage occurring in Texas. 23 deaths.

And a NO-NAME Storm...

June 29-July 5 2002. Central Texas. A weak tropical disturbance moved in from the Gulf of Mexico on June 29 and became stationary over the Edwards plateau for a week. Heavy rains of 35-45 inches ocurred within an area bordered by Boerne to Kerrville to Medina to Bandera back to Boerne. San Antonio set a record July rainfall of 16.92 inches for its second wettest month ever and the wettest July ever with 9.52 inches falling on July 1 alone. The highest flood stages ever for the upper Guadeloupe River and for the first time in Canyon Dam's history since it was constructed in 1958, water went over the spillway. Water nearly went over the spillway of Medina Dam with flood heights on the Medina River which exceeded those of October 1998. 12 deaths. $2 billion in damage. 36 counties in Central Texas were declared a Federal disaster area.

although the ULL to the northwest of FRED is shoing signs of weakening the ridge i still do not believe that the ridge will be so weakened asto pull the storm so sharply to the north
.
Quoting OcracokeISL:


Ill bet that was a mess. The flooding from hurricanes concern me more than the wind. The tidal surge is what gets us here on the island more than the rain. Hurricane Alex back in 2004 caught the local emergency planners and I think the NWS by surprise then. There was no evacuation and there was lots of stranded tourists here with flooded cars and no way to leave the island. My house also got flooded. Since then I have had the house elevated.


Without a doubt storm surge is the deadliest part of a hurricane. The only thing we've had sneak up on us was Humberto. Thankfully he wasn't that strong or pushing that much water. I can only imagine how you felt being surprised by Alex. I'm sorry about your house flooding. But glad you were able to raise it and continue living there. This situation is what the NHC was worried about most.
1689. divdog
Quoting reedzone:
Actually by looking at the steering maps, if it gets stronger, it may not pull north... According the the steering layer maps.
you really are fighting the models tooth and nail. I'm going with the experts on this one.
Quoting OcracokeISL:


Ill bet that was a mess. The flooding from hurricanes concern me more than the wind. The tidal surge is what gets us here on the island more than the rain. Hurricane Alex back in 2004 caught the local emergency planners and I think the NWS by surprise then. There was no evacuation and there was lots of stranded tourists here with flooded cars and no way to leave the island. My house also got flooded. Since then I have had the house elevated.
Sounds familiar. 2004 was a bad year for lots of us in the Carib' & FL.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Hmmm? Reading about Allison. I knew she was bad but I didn't know some of these things.

Pre-Rita and pre-Ike.


June 6-12, 2001. Southeast Texas. The remnants of Tropical Storm Allison produced the worst natural disaster in Houston's history when 25 to 45 inches of rain fell as the storm meandered across southeast Texas. Damage was especially severe in the downtown area. The costliest storm in Texas history with $5 billion of the $6 billion in damage occurring in Texas. 23 deaths.

And a NO-NAME Storm...

June 29-July 5 2002. Central Texas. A weak tropical disturbance moved in from the Gulf of Mexico on June 29 and became stationary over the Edwards plateau for a week. Heavy rains of 35-45 inches ocurred within an area bordered by Boerne to Kerrville to Medina to Bandera back to Boerne. San Antonio set a record July rainfall of 16.92 inches for its second wettest month ever and the wettest July ever with 9.52 inches falling on July 1 alone. The highest flood stages ever for the upper Guadeloupe River and for the first time in Canyon Dam's history since it was constructed in 1958, water went over the spillway. Water nearly went over the spillway of Medina Dam with flood heights on the Medina River which exceeded those of October 1998. 12 deaths. $2 billion in damage. 36 counties in Central Texas were declared a Federal disaster area.



One notable storm in recent memory here that caused terrible flooding was hurricane Floyd. It caused major flooding on the mainland areas of Eastern NC. Im sure you remember reading about this one or seeing it on TV. According to some it was the worst flooding in this area in history. Out here on Hatteras Island, hurricane Isabel cut a new inlet through the island just north of Hatteras village back on Sept 18th 2003. This was the worst storm for the Outer Banks especially Hatteras Island in recent history. No lives were lost on the island but a few people came close.
1692. IKE
Long-term discussion from Birmingham,AL....

"A SYSTEM THAT COULD CREATE A FAIRLY LARGE
IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN GULF STATES IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE. WE
HAVE BEEN TALKING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ABOUT THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CANADA THIS
WEEKEND AND THOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK TO AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA
DIRECTLY...IT COULD HAVE AN INDIRECT IMPACT ON US IN THAT IT WILL
LIKELY INFLUENCE THE PATTERN AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BOTTOM LINE...THE WEEKEND LOOKS VERY WET.
PWS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH A MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
STATES BEGINNING SUNDAY THAT CLIMBS INTO THE 2.5 INCH NEIGHBORHOOD.
THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. FORECAST WISE...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS ABOUT THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION...AS THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
RAIN COULD BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NOT REAL CONCERNED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM ASPECT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE
LEVEL OF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
THUNDER WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
MODERATE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CLOUD COVER...SO EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES."

1693. PSL2007
Quoting reedzone:
Actually by looking at the steering maps, if it gets stronger, it may not pull north... According the the steering layer maps.


To what are you referring to , my friend?
1694. IKE
Long-term from Jackson,MS.....

"CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH MUCH HIGHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE S HALF OF THE CWA FROM THE N GULF.
DURING THIS TIME...THE OVERALL WX PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE ON A BIG
CHANGE AS A S/W MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW AND BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND CARVES OUT A LARGE
LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY "CUTS OFF" OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...MODEL GUID DETAILS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THIS EVOLUTION AND EACH ENSEMBLE MEMBER HAS DIFFERENCES.
HOWEVER...MED RANGE GUID HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS SORT OF
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH OUR REGION SEEING SOME SORT OF
INVERTED SFC TROUGH DEVELOP AS HGHT FALLS OCCUR TO OUR N/NW. THE
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TO BRING NORTHWARD DEEP
MOISTURE INVOF OF THE DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH AND THAT SHOULD BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH TO INCREASE OUR PRECIP CHANCES SAT AFTERNOON INTO MON.
AT THIS TIME...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES SAT WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS. I FOLLOWED GUID POPS FOR THOSE AREAS AND
CUT ACROSS THE NORTH. MORE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER FOR SUN FOR THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES AND WILL GO WITH 40-60% POPS WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE. IF THIS PATTERN DOES PAN OUT...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
CONCERN AND THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HOWEVER...THIS TOO FAR OUT
AND TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS TO MENTION IN THE HWO."
1695. divdog
Quoting PSL2007:


To what are you referring to , my friend?
not the same ones we are looking at ????
Quoting OcracokeISL:


One notable storm in recent memory here that caused terrible flooding was hurricane Floyd. It caused major flooding on the mainland areas of Eastern NC. Im sure you remember reading about this one or seeing it on TV. According to some it was the worst flooding in this area in history. Out here on the Hatteras Island, hurricane Isabel cut a new inlet through the island just north of Hatteras village back on Sept 18th 2003. This was the worst storm for the Outer Banks especially Hatteras Island in recent history. No lives were lost on the island but a few people came close.


Yes I saw the flooding from Floyd on TV. Not too long ago actually. They were showing animal rescues, having to save the horses by holding their heads and making them swim beside a boat among others. It was pretty unbelievable. The flooding was awful. :( Hopefully no more like that for a long while.
1697. IKE
Accuweather's take on the Atlantic....

"Last Update: 8-SEP-2009 06:02am EDT

Tropical Storm Fred continues to strengthen this morning over the open waters of the eastern Atlantic and could become a hurricane on Wednesday or Thursday. At 5 a.m. EDT, Fred was located near 11.8 north, 27.3 west or about 285 miles to the southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Fred was moving westerly at 15 mph and maximum-sustained winds had increased to 50 mph with higher gusts. Fred is in an environment with warm ocean water temperatures and relatively light wind shear, and the satellite presentation of the storm became more impressive overnight, with considerable banding of clouds wrapping around the low-level circulation. Conditions are expected to remain favorable for development through Thursday, and Fred could reach hurricane strength on Wednesday or Thursday. Still, aside from some higher swells over the shores of the Cape Verde Islands, Fred will have no impacts on land.

Fred is being steered by a weak high pressure ridge to its north. As this feature weakens, Fred will turn more northwesterly and eventually northerly. This track will take the storm into an area with increasingly hostile conditions, in the form of moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear and lower sea surface temperatures. As a result, Fred will begin to weaken late week into the weekend.

Elsewhere, we continue to monitor an area of low pressure near the mid-Atlantic coast. This system doused eastern North Carolina with as much as 10 inches of rain on Monday, causing widespread flooding in some of the state's coastal communities. A buoy off the Outer Banks was reporting sustained winds of 31 mph with gusts to 40 mph at 5 a.m. EDT; another buoy in Onslow Bay - located off the southeast coast of North Carolina - reported sustained winds of 25-35 mph throughout the day on Monday.

The surface winds around this storm may be strong enough for it to be classified as a tropical depression; however, the storm is only quasi-tropical in nature and may not gain tropical characteristics. Still, this system will have many of the same impacts along the coast that a minimal tropical storm would have - gusty winds, heavy rainfall and minor beach erosion and tidal flooding. The heavier rain from the storm will lift through the Delmarva Peninsula today, reaching parts of New Jersey today and tonight. Some downpours from the storm could reach as far north as Connecticut by Thursday.

Elsewhere, there are a few tropical waves noted across the Atlantic Basin, but none are showing signs of development at this time. A trough of low pressure lies over the Gulf of Mexico and there is no immediate threat for development, but some computer models do suggest an area of low pressure developing over the western Gulf on Friday or Saturday, so this area will need to be monitored closely.

By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bob Tarr"
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yes I saw the flooding from Floyd on TV. Not too long ago actually. They were showing animal rescues, having to save the horses by holding their heads and making them swim beside a boat among others. It was pretty unbelievable. The flooding was awful. :( Hopefully no more like that for a long while.


Nice talking to you this morning. I gotta go to work shortly. Later.
Quoting OcracokeISL:


Nice talking to you this morning. I gotta go to work shortly. Later.


Enjoyed it. Nice meeting you. Have a good day. :)
1700. IKE
From everything I've read this morning about a low developing in the western GOM, it may wind up being another non-tropical low, like the one that affected NC/SC.
Fred 12Z update


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 28.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 25.6W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 22.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 40NM


12Z SHIPS is near hurricane status in 6 hours


AL 07 200909081145 1180N 2790W 55 SAB 3535 /////
AL 07 200909081145 1210N 2790W 55 TAFB 3535 /////

Dvorak chart
Mornin peoples,



1704. Dakster
Hey, is Fred forming Hot towers?

Does someone have a video about hot towers handy? (j.k.)

I can't believe the damage the Hurricanes caused last night when they made landfall in Tallahassee. The whole place was annihilated. Someone should advised Portlight to send relief to the area....
Wow Fred now is at 994mb and 65mph winds. This is probably what we will see at the 11am EDT update.
It is possible for Fred to be developing hot towers especially it looks like it on his western semi circle. I will be in class from 930am to 1045am.
Quoting IKE:
From everything I've read this morning about a low developing in the western GOM, it may wind up being another non-tropical low, like the one that affected NC/SC.


It would seem the NWS agrees. Although I don't see it causing the kind of flooding Ocra and I talking about because it's supposed to stay on the move. I didn't mean to worry anyone.

Lake Charles...

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...A COASTAL TROF/LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OVER THE WEEKEND. A GOOD SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS NOTED AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH PWAT
VALUES OVER 2.25 INCHES. THUS...A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING FROM THE PLAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WILL PUSH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION AND HELP TO REDUCE
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIGHT WITH LOW SEAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

Houston...

UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES WILL CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THIS WEEKEND WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE MID SECTION
OF CONUS. A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. ONCE SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH/LOW
PUSHES TO ENE OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL FOLLOW DUE TO WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. MODELS DO
INDICATE MOISTURE LEVELS STARTING TO DROP EARLY NEXT WEEK

MARINE...
MARINE FCST LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE QUIET SIDE AS FAR AS WINDS/SEAS
GO (FOR THE MOST PART). THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLARE UPS IN
AND NEAR STORMS THAT ARE PROGGED TO FORM THIS WEEK. CURRENT MODELS
INDICATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE/LIFT DEVELOPING AROUND
THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COASTLINE THIS WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP IN
THIS DIRECTION.

Sorry if you have read these already Ike. :)
1708. Dakster
Hmmm. Fred could actually become a Hurricane then. Time to break out the middle steering layer maps.
Congrats to all the Hurricane fans (you know who you are) Twins yesterday both in FL and Fred...

Be back later today an odyssey awaits my car broke down going to use Walking Taxi and Public transportation (this is not nyc)
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Quoting serialteg:
Congrats to all the Hurricane fans (you know who you are) Twins yesterday both in FL and Fred...

Be back later today an odyssey awaits my car broke down going to use Walking and Public transportation (this is not nyc)


Oh no. Sorry about the car. Have a good day. :)
Quoting StormW:
Someone made Fred mad!



Morning Storm. And I didn't do it. Lol. But Fred is looking good this morning.
rhis wind shear looks more like lat SEP going in too octer



Right under the deep convection indeed...
Good morning all. Fred seem to be off to a good start :)
1717. Relix
Seeing the rapid strenghtening, I would have to say Fred is definitely heading out to sea. Landfall seems very improbable at the moment unless something happens with the second through. The Ensemble Models do worry me, but I am not going to pay them much attention at all.
did evere took a look at the wind shear this AM wow its is vary high for this about evere where you see it this may be sigs of EL Nino kicking in
1719. JLPR
whooa
is all I can say
Freddy is nothing but a shipping issue. Just another cyclone that will meander out to see. I don't know what all the hype is about.
Quoting Dakster:
Hey, is Fred forming Hot towers?

Does someone have a video about hot towers handy? (j.k.)

I can't believe the damage the Hurricanes caused last night when they made landfall in Tallahassee. The whole place was annihilated. Someone should advised Portlight to send relief to the area....


Here ya go!

Hot Towers
NOAA did a study on the unusually high sea level annomilies seen along the East coast the last few months. Click the pic for the article.



After observing water levels six inches to two feet higher than originally predicted, NOAA scientists began analyzing data from select tide stations and buoys from Maine to Florida and found that a weakening of the Florida Current Transport—an oceanic current that feeds into the Gulf Stream—in addition to steady and persistent Northeast winds, contributed to this anomaly.

“The ocean is dynamic and it’s not uncommon to have anomalies,” said Mike Szabados, director of NOAA’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services. “What made this event unique was its breadth, intensity and duration.”
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2009

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE 08/00Z GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONING FROM ERN CONUS TROUGH TO RIDGE AS A DEEP CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLES
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND MEANDERS. A SHORT WAVE SPLITS OFF FROM THE MEAN TROUGH AND EJECTS ENE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SERN STATES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 07/12Z EURO CONTINUES ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE TREND IN ADVANCING THESE SYSTEMS EWD. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETREAT NWD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD INTO THE SERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SIGNAL AN END TO THE RECENT DRY PATTERN WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE/TROUGH TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.


Good Morning........Pretty hostile conditions in the tropical Atlantic, and with the exeception of Fred which is no threat to land, next possibility as noted on the Blog and some of the models may be a low around the Gulf in several days. No guarantee of a storm but some welcome rain for sure....Slim pickins for this time of the year.
1724. fire635
Quoting caneluver:
Freddy is nothing but a shipping issue. Just another cyclone that will meander out to see. I don't know what all the hype is about.


Because its an impressive system already... Just because it doesnt hit land doesnt make it boring
Also beginning to agree with these so-called downcasters on the rest of the season. Looks as if we (Conus) will be storm (Hurricane) free this year and I can say that feeling real confident.
Quoting caneluver:
Also beginning to agree with these so-called downcasters on the rest of the season. Looks as if we (Conus) will be storm (Hurricane) free this year and I can say that feeling real confident.



Have you looked at any of the models.. or looked at any of the long term forecasts? Have you noticed the conditions in the GOM?
how come the tropical floater don't have a page designated for just Fred?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
Quoting drj10526:
how come the tropical floater don't have a page designated for just Fred?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html


It's too far in the East Atlantic for the floater.
mode runs are this mode runs they cant realy forcast any thing the mode may see some one day then the next day its gone all mode runs are like that and right now we wont be seeing any thing in the gulf any time soon
NEW BLOG!
Quoting Orcasystems:



Have you looked at any of the models.. or looked at any of the long term forecasts? Have you noticed the conditions in the GOM?


Sure I have ORCA, but as it has been all season, I feel more confident the storms will be weak or miss the CONUS completly. Just one of those years. IMO
Late starting seasons usually have one big powerful storm in late August/early September, due to the heat buildup, and Bill apparently was "the one"....Thankfully, it did not directly impact land and it looks like the pros were right in terms of a lower than normal season due to El Nino and other factors...As noted by Taz, the sheer levels right now in the MDR look like late September so things way well be winding down for year with the exceptions of perhaps a few tropical storms from frontal remnants to come. All in All a good season so far for all concerned.
the way this wind shear map looks like this AM we wont be seeing any thing any time soon this about any where you look wind shear is vary high this AM for this about evere one

Link


this could be the last name storm when fat so fred gets out of the way
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Late starting seasons usually have one big powerful storm in late August/early September, due to the heat buildup, and Bill apparently was "the one"....Thankfully, it did not directly impact land and it looks like the pros were right in terms of a lower than normal season due to El Nino and other factors...As noted by Taz, the sheer levels right now in the MDR look like late September so things way well be winding down for year with the exceptions of perhaps a few tropical storms from frontal remnants to come. All in All a good season so far for all concerned.



well said other then the bill part bill impact where vary high seas on the E coast and later on made land fall way up N
the boc aoi has upper level divergence,lower level convergence and some vorticity of 850 mb and 700 mb but is lacking 500 and 200 mb hmmmm
08/1145 UTC 11.8N 27.9W T3.5/3.5 07L -- Atlantic