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New $50 million hurricane research center: a bad idea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:28 PM GMT on July 01, 2009

Hurricane track forecasts have improved by about 50% over the past twenty years, which has undoubtedly saved many lives and billions of dollars. These forecast improvements have primarily resulted from the investment made in hurricane research, which has been funded at approximately $50 million per year over that period. To me, it is unfathomable that our nation spends so little on scientific research that provides such an incredible value. The President's National Science Board, which makes budget recommendations for the National Science Foundation (NSF), agrees, and recommended a six-fold increase in hurricane research spending to $300 million per year in a 2007 report. But exactly how much "bang for the buck" are we getting from hurricane research? The answer is murky, making it difficult to excite the kind of attention and political appeal needed to give hurricane research funding the big shot in the arm it deserves. However, recent moves by the Obama administration show that they are taking notice of the need to spend more money on hurricane research. But, a recent proposal by Rep. Alan Grayson, D-Florida, to build a new $50 million hurricane research center in Orlando, is the wrong way to boost hurricane research.


Figure 1. A science team led by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (HRD) prepares for a mission into Hurricane Gustav in 2008. Image credit: NOAA/HRD.

How current hurricane research is funded
In 2008, about $50 million was spent by the U.S. government on hurricane research, with about 25% of this total going to maintain the facilities that do the research. The $50 million funded 228 person-years of research. About 35% of this was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with the rest of the money coming from the National Science Foundation (NSF), Office of Naval Research (ONR), and NASA. An additional $4 million was earmarked by Congress in 2008 to fund NOAA's promising new effort to improve hurricane intensity forecasts--the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP).

Where future funding increases should go: HFIP and JHT
The President's proposed FY 2010 budget continues the roughly $50 million dollars the hurricane research community traditionally gets, but adds $13 million in funding for the HFIP effort. To me, this is a great way to channel new hurricane research funding, as the HFIP effort is heavily focused on improving hurricane intensity forecasts, which have not improved at all over the past twenty years. Specific advancements outlined in the HFIP plan include:

1) Improving hurricane track forecast accuracy by 50% out to 5 days by 2018.
2) Improving hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by 50% out to 5 days by 2018.
3) Extending the lead time for hurricane forecasts out to 7 days.
4) Reducing the false alarm rate for rapid intensity forecasts.
5) Increasing the probability of detection of rapid intensification.

Another great way to boost hurricane research funding would be to put more money into NOAA's Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) project. This $1 million per year program has funded 50 separate hurricane research efforts over since 2001, 30 of which have been adopted operationally by the National Hurricane Center. Examples of successful JHT projects include the successful integration of the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) surface wind measurement instrument into NHC operations; improvements to the GFDL and HWRF computer models; and improving techniques to make a "consensus" forecast based on the output of our four best computer models. However, no new money for JHT has been proposed in the FY 2010 budget, though some of the money earmarked for HFIP may flow into JHT.

A new $50 million hurricane research center proposed
Instead, a new proposal for hurricane research funding has been championed by Representative Alan Grayson, D-Florida. According to an article in the Orlando Sentinel, Grayson is pushing for a new $50 million hurricane research center to be built in Orlando. He demanded that such a hurricane research center be built in exchange for his vote for the controversial climate change bill passed Friday by the U.S. House, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009. There is no language in the actual bill authorizing funds for such a center--Grayson merely has the word of democratic lawmakers, including President Obama, that such a center would be built. "I think it's a very worthwhile project. I look forward to working on it and making it a priority as the legislative process moves along," said U.S. Rep. Henry Waxman, the California Democrat who sponsored the bill, in the Orlando Sentinel article. The center could be constructed with funds aimed at helping states "study and adapt to climate change," money that would not be available until 2012 at the earliest. The hurricane center is "among the type of activities that would be eligible to receive funding," Waxman said. "We've never had anything [like this] come into this district before, ever," said Grayson, a freshman lawmaker. "This will be the world-leading facility for hurricane research. This will draw people from all over the world."

Well, I have championed efforts to give more funding to hurricane research over the years, and I think the $300 million per year in funding for the National Hurricane Research Initiative proposed in 2007 by the President's National Science Board is what is needed. However, I think Grayson's proposed new hurricane center is a bad idea. Florida already has a world-leading facility for hurricane research, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division on Virginia Key, and does not need another. The U.S. hurricane research community has an infrastructure in place that works, and the best way to foster hurricane research is to pump money into this existing infrastructure. I talked with a number of senior hurricane research scientists about the idea of a new hurricane research center, and none of them supported it. It's great that Rep. Grayson's wants to put new much-needed funding into hurricane research, but he didn't consult with the experts to see if a new research center was a good way to do this. It isn't. Where are all of the scientists needed to staff such a center going to come from? Presumably, they will be drawn from existing successful research teams, leading to the disruption of these proven research efforts. Adding a new national research center with a new bureaucracy with new management needing on-the-job training will dilute and distract from current hurricane research efforts, and is not a good way to spend $50 million. Several senior hurricane research scientists are going to be reaching out to Rep. Grayson over the next few months to make him more aware of the abilities and needs of the hurricane research community. Hopefully, these efforts will result in a more productive way for the Congressman to boost hurricane research. If you live in Rep. Grayson's district, I recommend you contact him to express your desire to see him champion a more effective way to boost hurricane research than with his proposed $50 million hurricane research center. Putting the $50 million into the National Hurricane Research Initiative (HFIP) effort would be a better use of the funds. To his credit, Rep. Grayson is a co-sponsor of the National Hurricane Research Initiative of 2009 (H.R. 327), a bill introduced into the House of Representatives on January 8, 2009. This bill is a lesser ($150 million per year) version of the $300 million per year National Hurricane Research Initiative proposed in 2007 by the President's National Science Board.

Good links for HFIP information are at:

http://www.nrc.noaa.gov/HFIPDraftPlan.html
http://www.dtcenter.org/plots/hrh_test/workshop20 09/presentations/1_Gall_HRH%20HFIP%20presentation. pdf

Some summaries of recent HFIP activities in the last year are at:

http://www.dtcenter.org/plots/hrh_test/index.php
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/tropical _cyclones/hfip/workshop_2009/

My next post will be Friday, when I'll have the first half of July hurricane outlook.

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Baha, we have had our share of rain period.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi, I was hoping it would leave sooner than that. We have been getting pounded on because of the rain that it is funneling into our area.


Well after tomorrow it should be tapering off a bit as the low moves away and pressures rise across the area, but lingering showers/t-storms along the old frontal boundary will probably remain for a while after that.
Quoting hurricane2009:
12Z ECMWF is forecasting a monster storm in about 9-10 days still in the EPAC


And notice the mischief off the Carolinas.
Quoting IKE:


Another ZEP fan! Alright!

I'll cue up The Rain Song next.


Would you believe that I went to see Page and Plant in 1995 and got in big trouble with my 75 year old granny for taking some hussy I had only known for 6 months instead of her? Grandma didn't speak to me for a year.

Was cool, though, with the NOLA symphony orchestra playing along for Kashmir, and others.
dust so intense, it can be picked up on infrared.

Quoting Levi32:


And notice the mischief off the Carolinas.


That would be the Pressolinas. And the mischief might be coming from inland. Does it look like a drunken pirate in a dress?
atmo, I know that if we could figure out a way to put the buoy-like radar stations that have been employed beta wise in the atlantic along the area of the Yucatan Channel and possibly near the Herbert boxes then we might get some very useful information.

What ever happened to the idea of using the Predator drones to look into the main part of the storms?
I think too much is placed on El Nino, particularly with a developing one.

El Nino & La Nina
Scoundrels or Scapegoats?
456, then whats the deal with the forecast earlier this year about a less than active season for Saharan Dust?
Quoting Weather456:
dust so intense, it can be picked up on infrared.



I remember once we had someone in here saying that they could see the CO2 when looking something like that. LOL.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I don't know anybody who could care less about either of those things.
You have mail.
From TCR for 90L;
There were several data, which suggest that Tropical Invest 90L was probably a
tropical depression or tropical storm at landfall. First, satellite presentations greatly
improved as the system near the coast with organize deep convection found near the
center of circulation.

So I am pretty confident in saying we've had Ana and that should be declared in PSA.
Levi, its odd that a trough would sit up in one spot like this one did. Normally we see them move north at a rapid pace. what kept this one in place?
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
atmo, I know that if we could figure out a way to put the buoy-like radar stations that have been employed beta wise in the atlantic along the area of the Yucatan Channel and possibly near the Herbert boxes then we might get some very useful information.

What ever happened to the idea of using the Predator drones to look into the main part of the storms?


The UAVs are happening as far as I know. NGI (northern gulf institute) at Stennis Space Center is involved in that. I'll see what I can find out tomorrow.

Haven't heard much since Ophelia-2005, have we?

Image of the day



Quoting plywoodstatenative:
456, then whats the deal with the forecast earlier this year about a less than active season for Saharan Dust?


From my May 16 outlook and my blog on SAL on May 31 I hinted that weaker waves over Africa will continute to less occurance of dust events but when they occur they will be strong. June 2009 saw 2-3 dust events, which is below normal.
no and thats odd.

What impact will this new satellite that NASA put up last week have on hurricane forecasting?
UAV post from the 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology by Dr. M last year.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?year=2008&month=04

And news release from Nov 2006:
http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2006Nov09/0,4670,HurricaneResearchers,00.html
I think Dr. Masters posted a blog on the dust forecast for 2009 indicating below normal dust for 2009. We should not look at the intensity of any single dust event but the frequency of such.
Quoting atmoaggie:


That would be the Pressolinas. And the mischief might be coming from inland. Does it look like a drunken pirate in a dress?


Aaaarrrggghhh!!!!!
Good Evening all.
The wave we were looking at this morning at 35 W has been badly erroded by the SAL.
Yes, there was a forecast earlier this year, that SAL would not be as heavy this year, as in some previous. But it was a forecast for the season, and may still prove right. Bear in mind it is a forecast, and was based on recent studdies, ongoing.
If in fact, there has been more rain in parts of Africa than recently, and this is supposed to reduce the dust, and it does not, then we have a problem with the data.
Or with the interpretation of the data.

None of this is exact science. It will be interesting to see how it all works out.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
no and thats odd.

What impact will this new satellite that NASA put up last week have on hurricane forecasting?


The most recent was simply a follow on (read: spare) to ones we already have. I don't think it has any special capabilities beyond what is up there now.

GOES-R, however, is supposed to be different.
http://www.goes-r.gov/
Press, anymore fundraisers coming up?
Quoting presslord:


Aaaarrrggghhh!!!!!


lol...no really, laughed out loud. (Wifey looking at me oddly)
Okay since you are on the up and up so to speak, what is the information on when or if QuickSat is going to be replaced?
Here it comes fellow Lake Worth and West Palm bloggers.

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi, its odd that a trough would sit up in one spot like this one did. Normally we see them move north at a rapid pace. what kept this one in place?


Well this one isn't being kept in place. It's moving right along. The illusion of moving slow was caused by all the rain you guys are getting. A shortwave trough came through a couple days ago that brought the front down that started all the rain. The shortwave quickly left but the front remained, as they usually do down in the gulf. The result was continued rain and now the big longwave trough is digging down for its turn at a couple days of bringing wet weather. So it's really a 2-trough deal but no break in the rain.
I don't think we need to see anymore photo's of Press in a Dress. The thought of him in anything else is enough to make him faint.
post 523, Plywood.
see the shepperd's blog.
Portlight charity stuff.
WPB, its been happening all day. Spurts here and there.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Okay since you are on the up and up so to speak, what is the information on when or if QuickSat is going to be replaced?


A year or 2 after it falls on capitol hill. I don't everything, now, I just happen to know the guys at NGI (Stennis), FCMP, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Colorado.
And whatever gets put in BAMS or in press releases.
I'm happy to say the rain is starting to taper off in Tampa. I don't see too much left to come at us from the gulf either. It's all sinking slowly to the south.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I think too much is placed on El Nino, particularly with a developing one.

El Nino & La Nina
Scoundrels or Scapegoats?


I viewed that whole presentation and I have to say it's probably the best one I've seen. It is very true that some forecasters put way too much stock in the ENSO alone. There are many other factors at work. This year since it's a reactive El Nino there has been more correlation with the changing ENSO than there usually is with a weak event. It's really quite nice, it almost makes the forecasting easier.
I work in West Palm, live in Lake Worth...and until now not a drop. Guess it's where you live!
Quoting StormJunkie:
Nice loop Oz, shows a pretty quiet June as it usually is. Had a little trouble with the buffering on it, but other then that pretty neat to see a month long loop! Worked best when I paused it and let the whole thing load prior to viewing. At least for me.
Hey SJ. Are u still doing stuff with the software u were working on for the 3-D storm structure representation?
SJ: Mail.
press same for ya, thoughts on the fishing tournament
Levi, what makes me wonder is if we are going to wind up in a neutral season.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi, what makes me wonder is if we are going to wind up in a neutral season.


Now that is a scary thought.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi, what makes me wonder is if we are going to wind up in a neutral season.


Well I don't think it will be quite that weak. Looking at the SST anomalies now I would never call that neutral. That's a solid weak El Nino event, and it may stay weak or peak as a moderate, but overall not a very strong or sustained event.
The season is not off to a slow start either by any means. It's not uncommon for June to pass without any named storms.
so then what does that mean for the season, will we see an increase in Dr. Gray's forecast or not?
This time last year we were tracking Invest 92L/bertha

Tropical Invest 92L

Posted by: Weather456, 6:58 AM AST on July 01, 2008

The strong tropical wave mentioned yesterday has now exited the coast of Africa and wasted no time in being recognized by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as Invest 92L. The disturbance is located near 10.8N/16.5W, moving off towards the west near 15-20 mph. This morning’s infrared images showed a fairly organize system with a series of convective bands in and around the center and the eastern quadrants. Visible imagery along with a partial QuikSCAT pass showed there is an associated somewhat broad surface circulation with this system based on the west winds observed south of the center and the NHC 06Z surface analysis chart confirmed a 1011 mb low along the wave. This actually places it in stage 1 of development (suspect area) and should be monitored for increase in convection and organization beyond the diurnal cycle. There is an upper anticyclone over the system and the resultant outflow is creating some easterly shear over the system’s convective bands, which is a favorable situation for development. Along with warm sea surface temperatures and increase organization, the formation of a tropical depression in 24 hrs seems good.
not worth it
By July 4

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
so then what does that mean for the season, will we see an increase in Dr. Gray's forecast or not?


Hm what's his forecast now....11 storms? I can't tell you what the relationship is between El Nino and Dr. Gray, you'll have to ask him! Lol...I am personally expecting a near-normal season, 12 named storms, with less impact on the gulf coast and Caribbean islands than last year, due to a more north and east congregation of tracks. Formations close to the coast will be an issue.
I think weak el nino or weak la nina both have the facility to allow for above average storm numbers, similar to a neutral ENSO. What u really get depends more on the other factors that influence TC formation in such situations.

Nothing's automatic.
Does anybody remember the relationship between nesting turtles and hurricanes? I remember a blog about it last season. I just read in the St. Pete Times today that this years nesting season around the bay area is about triple what it was last year.
Quoting atmoaggie:


A year or 2 after it falls on capitol hill. I don't everything, now, I just happen to know the guys at NGI (Stennis), FCMP, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Colorado.
And whatever gets put in BAMS or in press releases.


Lots of info on Scatterometry on this website. Current plan is to place an instrument on a Japanese satellite with launch in late 2015/early 2016.
Baha & Rmadillo~ SJ probibly has a link on his site to it but the 3-d radar has been moved to it's developer's site..our very own Wunderblogger Rainman32.. Check it out. Improvements were done. Doesn't bog down my computer anymore, same mind blowing radar..
Quoting CaneWarning:
Does anybody remember the relationship between nesting turtles and hurricanes? I remember a blog about it last season. I just read in the St. Pete Times today that this years nesting season around the bay area is about triple what it was last year.


Yeah I remember something about that. So what...more turtles means more hurricanes?
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah I remember something about that. So what...more turtles means more hurricanes?


I thought it was more turtles less hurricanes for that particular area at least.
Cane~ Did they mention if they were laying high or low on the beach? High is when we're suppose to worry.
Will the El Nino suppress any hurricanes this season? Have you lowered your predictions for the season?
Here's the article. I was wrong its a third more than last year, not three times as many.

Link
Quoting CaneWarning:
The season is not off to a slow start either by any means. It's not uncommon for June to pass without any named storms.

By this time last year, we had Arthur and Bertha.
Quoting dayton:
Will the El Nino suppress any hurricanes this season? Have you lowered your predictions for the season?


If you're asking me, I made only one prediction this year on June 1st. I had been away from the blogs for a long time and it was kind of rushed since I was late, but I think I'll stick with it. I think El Nino will definitely be a factor especially in decreasing the number of storms in the deep tropics this year, but El Nino is not the whole story. The worry this year is storms forming close to home and being a problem even if there are a low number of total storms.
Quoting Skyepony:
Cane~ Did they mention if they were laying high or low on the beach? High is when we're suppose to worry.


Here's a quote from the article:

"He has spotted nests in the dunes and has seen nests too close to the tide. Sometimes he sifts his fingers through sand, only to find that some poor turtle worked all night and produced no eggs."

I would say both!

Quoting Chicklit:

By this time last year, we had Arthur and Bertha.


Yes, but its not unusual to have a quiet June.
The last time we didn't have a June named storm was 2004...and that year stunk for central and south Fla....and we got up to the name of Otto. In fact Alex didn't form til the last day of July. Does that mean anything for this season? No.
Ya'll scroll down on the 3-d radar link I left.. the waterspouts on the St Johns the other day...wow.
An aside: on the bickering I've seen between some of our better forecasters and observers over the last few days.

I'm not saying much to anybody, but I'm using the flagging buttons as I see fit. I have a lot of respect for both Drak and 456, but I am not into all the "you-say-I-say" back and forth personality foolishness. If u as a blogger want to be frivolous and spend ur time baiting, insulting other bloggers, etc, u will be minused and reported. I'm just tired of the foolishness now, and I expect lots of other people are also.

I also notice some bloggers like hurricaneseason2006 who seem to be gleefully putting metaphorical wood on the fire of the foolishness. At home we call such people, those who instigate conflicts just for the fun of it, "jinxers", and they are widely despised. These people should be flagged too, for wasting the blog's time.

If u mean the blog well, do two things, please. 1. Follow the admin notice on flagging when people get into these contentions, and 2. avoid getting into the argument yourself.

Maybe I should just save this post and repost it at intervals..... save me the work of thinking it up again.
Quoting Chicklit:

By this time last year, we had Arthur and Bertha.


Bertha did not develop until July 3.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The last time we didn't have a June named storm was 2004...and that year stunk for central and south Fla....and we got up to the name of Otto. In fact Alex didn't form til the last day of July. Does that mean anything for this season? No.
I beg to differ. It was very hot. SST's were high. And El Nino didn't kick in until later in the season.
Levi: Are you saying that this year in particular, we should look for storms close to home? Meaning, more storms building close this year than in past years?

Would that make it more likely for a landfall?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The last time we didn't have a June named storm was 2004...and that year stunk for central and south Fla....and we got up to the name of Otto. In fact Alex didn't form til the last day of July. Does that mean anything for this season? No.


Actually, 2008 technically did not see a June storm. Most people forget that Arthur developed on May 31.
Not LMAO anymore, cool link SKypony.
On July storms, aren't they usually at the low end of the scale? i.e. more TS and cat 1s than Majors.
Quoting dayton:
Levi: Are you saying that this year in particular, we should look for storms close to home? Meaning, more storms building close this year than in past years?

Would that make it more likely for a landfall?


Yes, less long-track cape-verde-type storms. Storms forming closer to land are more likely to hit land. That's why even a below-normal year can have an active impact if most of the storms take a shot at land. Sometimes a good thing about this kind of a pattern is home-brew storms close to land don't always have time to strengthen very much. 2002 was a good example where 8 of the 12 storms that formed hit the US, but were all weak (7 tropical storms and one Cat 1 hurricane).
Quoting dayton:
Levi: Are you saying that this year in particular, we should look for storms close to home? Meaning, more storms building close this year than in past years?

Would that make it more likely for a landfall?


I am not Levi, but I will try and answer your question.

The reason that Levi, myself, and others foresee storms developing primarily close to home is due to hostile wind shear in the deep tropics caused by El Nino.

That being said, shallow systems, be they tropical depressions, tropical storms, or even tropical waves, follow the low-level flow, which generally indicates a generally westward movement. This can help them to avoid recurvature. So yes, theoretically, storms forming closer to home could mean a heightened risk of United States landfalls. Do the math. With increased vertical shearing in the deep tropics, most tropical waves will have ample opportunity to develop closer to home, after they come out of the unfavorable environment to the east.

In 2005, some of the more powerful storms developed close to home (Rita immediately comes to mind).
Good catch...my mistake.
You're a good writer Baha...I appreciate hearing your well-articulated thoughts!

Eight and a half foot Burmese Python strangled a little 2 1/2 year old girl in Sumpter County, Florida today. Owner said he had left the snake in a plastic bag.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I thought it was more turtles less hurricanes for that particular area at least.



turtle's won't nest where a hurricane w/make landfall is the legend,lol:)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Actually, 2008 technically did not see a June storm. Most people forget that Arthur developed on May 31.


Perfect. Could not said it better. 2006 had a June storm and if we reach July 24 and no Ana, then Berly and we all knew what 2006 ended up with. Long story short, early season actvity is not a good indicator of activity in the peak. Though 2008 showed early activity in the deep tropics can often indicate intensity levels during the peak.
Good evening. Have family traveling to the Keys.. except for the partiers..anything to be concerned about? TIA
So I think you are saying this year there is a heighten chance of landfalling.
Quoting dayton:
So I think you are saying this year there is a heighten chance of landfalling.


I wouldn't put it as high as last year, but yes I think a decent chance of landfalls.
I guess it's just been a long time since we did not had an early start. Since the last 4 years took off quickly.
579. JRRP
1969 was EL NIO too

Link
Quoting foggymyst:
Good evening. Have family traveling to the Keys.. except for the partiers..anything to be concerned about? TIA


Nope.
Quoting Levi32:


I wouldn't put it as high as last year, but yes I think a decent chance of landfalls.


As Kori was saying, the primary reasoning behind it is higher wind shear in the deep tropics south of 20N. The MJO also comes into play where we will probably see a lot of dry air and downward motion in the tropical Atlantic during the peak of the season, which is why I don't expect a very active Cape Verde season. Storms north of 20N, generally more north and east than last year and forming closer to home, are what I think this year's theme will be.
Quoting dayton:
So I think you are saying this year there is a heighten chance of landfalling.


Every year, to my knowledge, save for 1990, has had at least one landfall of at least tropical storm strength in the United States, though even in that year, Marco had weakened to a tropical depression just prior to moving inland over Florida.

Bottom line is that a United States landfall is pretty much a given, regardless of the year.
When was the last season not a single named storm made landfall somewhere?
Quoting CaneWarning:


I thought it was more turtles less hurricanes for that particular area at least.

Beach erosion after tropical storms and hurricanes reduces turtle nesting areas.
Evidently, they return to the same beaches every year. Link
....and there's a turtle nest right on my beach no more than 1000ft from my apartment!!!,so I'm more than protected this year!!!!!(sarasota county has never had a major landfalling hurricane since records have been kept)....
Quoting Chicklit:

By this time last year, we had Arthur and Bertha.


And some could argue that this year we have already had Ana and Bill
Thank you guys! I appreciate your knowledge and information! You put it in terms even I can understand!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
When was the last season not a single named storm made landfall somewhere?


If by "somewhere", you mean areas outside the United States, then I don't think there has been such a year. As I said earlier, there has been at least one year (1990) when a tropical storm did not make landfall in the United States, but even during that year, a tropical depression hit Florida.

Also, for areas outside the United States, the only year that comes to mind in which other areas did not see a landfalling tropical cyclone is 1914.

EDIT: Oh wait, it appears that in 1914, the only storm of that year landfalled in the Bahamas before it came ashore over Florida.
Patience people...sometimes when there is activity in May (although alot dont make it classified) and June... there is a slow mid-Sept thru Oct. This year is different. El Nino is there but weak this year. Some Sheering in the carribean this year (but usually expected).

July usually sees the Atlantic ridge build down to 20N causing a pressure gradient with lower pressure on the ITCZ causing fast 25-35kt winds in the lower and midlevels. This year it shows it also for the next 15 days @ least. Until this ridge moves to around 30N..the ITCZ will remain south of 8N and the easterlys will be really strong. Best chance for tropical development will be in the SW Gulf or BOC, Bahamas and NW Carribean....unfortunatley the SW Carribean will see systems move into the Pacific with the extentsion of the Atlantic ridge.

Outlook from July 15-Aug 15 will probably push the ridge back up to 25-30N giving a more promising look for the ITCZ to move back up to near 10N and the Cape Verde season to start. Also the carribean will be prime from 50W and south of 15N of the windard islands and westward into the carribean!
Quoting KoritheMan:



In 2005, some of the more powerful storms developed close to home (Rita immediately comes to mind).
Also Katrina, which, like Rita, formed in Bahamian waters. Several of the other "blockbuster" storms of the high part of the season formed just east or just west of the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Lots of info on Scatterometry on this website. Current plan is to place an instrument on a Japanese satellite with launch in late 2015/early 2016.


Cool page, nrt. (May I call ya nrt?)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Also Katrina, which, like Rita, formed in Bahamian waters. Several of the other "blockbuster" storms of the high part of the season formed just east or just west of the Lesser Antilles.


Wow, how could I forget Katrina? Dennis could also be considered one, I suppose.

It's important that people don't let their guard down, simply because of increased shearing in the deep tropics.
Quoting stillwaiting:



turtle's won't nest where a hurricane w/make landfall is the legend,lol:)


I don't know, Dr. Masters had a blog about it last year. I think there is some truth to it.
Quoting Chicklit:

By this time last year, we had Arthur and Bertha.
Its not when and how many. Not that I need to remind anybody, first named storm in 1992 wasn't till August 24...
2002 had a late start too. And so did 1998. And so Did 1990, 1985, 1980, 1977, 1961, 1955, 1950 and so on.
Actually looking at it seasons that don't feature a named system in June actually tend to be more active than seasons that do. With a couple of exceptions.
Quoting AllStar17:


And some could argue that this year we have already had Ana and Bill

You have to have an LLC to get a name...
A little off-topic but a good time to post before the 4th of July Beach Weekend.
Info about rip currents!
Link
Quoting KoritheMan:


If by "somewhere", you mean areas outside the United States, then I don't think there has been such a year. As I said earlier, there has been at least one year (1990) when a tropical storm did not make landfall in the United States, but even during that year, a tropical depression hit Florida.

Also, for areas outside the United States, the only year that comes to mind in which other areas did not see a landfalling tropical cyclone, is 1914.


Ah that depression was a TS all the way up the west coast of Florida very close to the coast and weakened to a TD just before landfall. It almost doesn't count lol. 1962 came very close with the only system getting close being Hurricane Alma that brushed the outer banks, and the WU page says it made landfall but it doesn't really appear to have hit land.
Quoting KoritheMan:


If by "somewhere", you mean areas outside the United States, then I don't think there has been such a year. As I said earlier, there has been at least one year (1990) when a tropical storm did not make landfall in the United States, but even during that year, a tropical depression hit Florida.

Also, for areas outside the United States, the only year that comes to mind in which other areas did not see a landfalling tropical cyclone is 1914.


We posted our comments at the same time KoritheMan. You really are a hurricane historian. I will refer to you when it comes to cyclonic history!
Quoting CaneWarning:


I don't know, Dr. Masters had a blog about it last year. I think there is some truth to it.


Here's Dr. Masters' blog on it
600. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:
2002 had a late start too. And so did 1998. And so Did 1990, 1985, 1980, 1977, 1961, 1955, 1950 and so on.
Actually looking at it seasons that don't feature a named system in June actually tend to be more active than seasons that do. With a couple of exceptions.

1969 too
601. SLU
The best indicator of an active hurricane season is named storm days east of 60W south of 20N before August 1st. 1887, 1916, 1933, 1966, 1969, 1979, 1980, 1989, 1990, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005 and 2008 all had named storm days in that period and they were all seasons which have been at least above average and most of them were hyperactive.
By the way, the 1962 season only had 5 named storms, but it was a neutral ENSO year with a La Nina bias with -0.5C SST anomalies all year in the equatorial Pacific. Another example of why the ENSO is not the magic wand for hurricane seasons.
Quoting atmoaggie:


Cool page, nrt. (May I call ya nrt?)


No problem, most do.
Awww...nice pics of the turtles and their tracks. We have them nesting in New Smyrna Beach, too. Also oceanfront lights MUST STAY OFF during nesting. You want the hatchlings to head toward the moonlight reflected off the water not the dead zone under the streetlight or patio flood light!
Quoting Chicklit:
You're a good writer Baha...I appreciate hearing your well-articulated thoughts!

Eight and a half foot Burmese Python strangled a little 2 1/2 year old girl in Sumpter County, Florida today. Owner said he had left the snake in a plastic bag.
Thanks for the compliment. I am glad I don't have to write about the python! and I wish I could be eloquent with the TC things I understand, not just blog netiquette....
Quoting KoritheMan:


Wow, how could I forget Katrina? Dennis could also be considered one, I suppose.

It's important that people don't let their guard down, simply because of increased shearing in the deep tropics.
I can't forget Katrina, given the run from just barely a TS to almost cat 2...... right over my head! LOL

I agree that we need to be careful not to assume no development when it's really business as usual.
Quoting Chicklit:
You're a good writer Baha...I appreciate hearing your well-articulated thoughts!

Eight and a half foot Burmese Python strangled a little 2 1/2 year old girl in Sumpter County, Florida today. Owner said he had left the snake in a plastic bag.
Owner did not leave snake in a plastic bag:

"Sumter County Sheriff and state wildlife officials captured the python inside the home and placed it inside a bag. It's not known whether the snake will be euthanized. The python had a bloody gouge about a foot from the tip of its nose, where it was stabbed by its owner Charles Darnell.

Lt. Bobby Caruthers of Sumter County Sheriff's Office said the python was a family pet that apparently broke free from inside a glass aquarium in the home's living room. The snake then made its way into the girl's bedroom and apparently strangled her in the middle of the night, according to authorities. The girl was identified as Shaiunna Hare. The home is off County Road 466, tucked in the middle of pastureland.

Darnell, 32, found the snake - about 8.5 feet long - on top of the 2-year-old this morning after he noticed the snake was missing from the aquarium. He then started stabbing the reptile. Family members called 911 at 9:43 a.m. The child was dead when emergency crews arrived at 10 a.m. She had a bite mark on her head, authorities said."
Thanks Hunkerdown. Obviously, the environment the python was in was not a good one. That guy needs to go to jail.
Whether you like them or not, whether you listen/watch them or not, but there was a good story in the weather channel a few minutes ago with Steve Lyons and Jim Cantore. They were talking about the models and in particular what certain models did with 93L. As fortunate as we are to be able to see the models, it is unfortunate when the models are viewed by indiviuals who have no weather knowledge or understanding and believe what they see just because it came from a "well known" model.
The bottom line Ladies and Gentlemen is that we do not know how this season will turn out. It may be busy...it may be statistic-wise average as predicted...or it may be below normal.
Quoting hunkerdown:
The child was dead when emergency crews arrived at 10 a.m. She had a bite mark on her head, authorities said."
The child's last name was Hare???? Wow. Talk about irony.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The bottom line Ladies and Gentlemen is that we do not know how this season will turn out. It may be busy...it may be statistic-wise average as predicted...or it may be below normal.
Short and to the point, one of the best statements I have read on here in a long, long time.
Quoting BahaHurican:
The child's last name was Hare???? Wow. Talk about irony.
Maybe the intelligence level of the pythong went beyond that. A hare is a rabbit, rabbits are the staple for pythons of that size...
Good evening all

The previous active years have created an expectation that every year will be above average. There are a few fundamental factors to bear in mind :

1. We are in a period of overall heightened activity and as such the odds are more in favour of above average seasons than below average.

2. Quick starts to a season do not necessarily indicate that an active season is on tap. Similarly, a slow start is not necessarily a sign of a slow season : 2004 did not have the first system until 31st July and went on to a total of 15 overall, including the infamous Ivan.

3. You can look at all the analog years you want but in the end no two years are ever the same. Mother nature rules.

4. Some seasons can do a flip flop with activity. Again, 2004 is the classic illustration of this. Nothing until the end of July and then 8 weeks of one after the other.

5. Finally, if you look at climatology , June and July are slow. Period.


The moral of the story is enjoy the quiet times. Who knows when you will be looking down the barrel of something really nasty.

599. Levi, thanks for the link!
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

The previous active years have created an expectation that every year will be above average. There are a few fundamental factors to bear in mind :

1. We are in a period of overall heightened activity and as such the odds are more in favour of above average seasons than below average.

2. Quick starts to a season do not necessarily indicate that an active season is on tap. Similarly, a slow start is not necessarily a sign of a slow season : 2004 did not have the first system until 31st July and went on to a total of 15 overall, including the infamous Ivan.

3. You can look at all the analog years you want but in the end no two years are ever the same. Mother nature rules.

4. Some seasons can do a flip flop with activity. Again, 2004 is the classic illustration of this. Nothing until the end of July and then 8 weeks of one after the other.

5. Finally, if you look at climatology , June and July are slow. Period.


The moral of the story is enjoy the quiet times. Who knows when you will be looking down the barrel of something really nasty.

As usual, a man of good advice. Head kman's words.
post # 613...At last!!! A voice of reason...
kman, great post.
Thank goodness for Kman
Hi there Hurricane 2009

I keep reading all the " impatient posts " about nothing happening.

Eventually that will change. Every year has at least one !
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi there Hurricane 2009

I keep reading all the " impatient posts " about nothing happening.

Eventually that will change. Every year has at least one !


Ernesto in 2006 scared the crap out of me.
When it was gonna hit New Orleans area as a Category 3 and when it was suppose to hit Tampa as a Category 1.
Does antone remember 1992 when the 1st named storm hit in August and the rest of the season couldn't measure up?
616 to 619

Good evening to you all.

If we can get to the end of July with no named systems then great, especially since I am off to Alaska on a cruise with the family from the 15th July until the 27th !. LOL
Every year, try every august and september. (well, except maybe the infamous 1914....
Quoting pcbdragon:
Does antone remember 1992 when the 1st named storm hit in August and the rest of the season couldn't measure up?
rest of the season, it will be a long time till any storm can measure up to Andrew.
Quoting pcbdragon:
Does antone remember 1992 when the 1st named storm hit in August and the rest of the season couldn't measure up?


I don't think anyone on here has ever mentioned that the first named storm in 1992 was Andrew which formed in August. (Apply directly to the forehead)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I don't think anyone on here has ever mentioned that the first named storm in 1992 was Andrew which formed in August. (Apply directly to the forehead)


That's never been discussed.
Hey y'all and Canewarning :) 17% of the way through hurricane season and all is well :)
my point exactly
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Ernesto in 2006 scared the crap out of me.
When it was gonna hit New Orleans area as a Category 3 and when it was suppose to hit Tampa as a Category 1.


Ernesto was nada here in South Fla. We even got off work that day...and it wound up to be a sunny and beautiful.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hey y'all and Canewarning :) 17% of the way through hurricane season and all is well :)


Hey! You are trying to start something with that percentage thing again! Every time you say it someone gets all excited.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Ernesto was nada here in South Fla. We even got off work that day...and it wound up to be a sunny and beautiful.


I remember the office closing for Fay. We didn't even get more than a shower and a 10 mph wind gust!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I don't think anyone on here has ever mentioned that the first named storm in 1992 was Andrew which formed in August. (Apply directly to the forehead)


Surprisingly, Andrew was the first tropical system that year, but in April there was an unnamed subtropical storm.
Well there is always Alicia and Anita as fiesty late beginnings to hurricane season. Only 152 days left in hurricane season! There was a storm named Andrew? I might have heard something about that, have to check the historical database.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Ernesto was nada here in South Fla. We even got off work that day...and it wound up to be a sunny and beautiful.


Ya Ernesto was a joke here.
Every time I hear late season start I think of Andrew LOL....

kman, I'm supposed to be visiting the Midwest and intermountain west for about three weeks from about 20 July to 20 August (not sure of exact dates). Back in 1994, I had a train trip terminated unexpectedly because of Charley. Hope this season's not the same. . .
Which do u think is worse: being hit by a major hurricane, or being away from home/family when a hurricane hits your area?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Every time I hear late season start I think of Andrew LOL....

kman, I'm supposed to be visiting the Midwest and intermountain west for about three weeks from about 20 July to 20 August (not sure of exact dates). Back in 1994, I had a train trip terminated unexpectedly because of Charley. Hope this season's not the same. . .


Pull the shutters before getting on the plane LOL
Quoting kmanislander:
Every year has at least one !


You know better than that to say that here KMAN.. LOL..

but 99% of the time you are right, there is at least one...
Quoting CaneWarning:


I remember the office closing for Fay. We didn't even get more than a shower and a 10 mph wind gust!


I had jury duty during Fay. We had tropical storm warnings up since the morning and they finally released us during the afternoon.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Which do u think is worse: being hit by a major hurricane, or being away from home/family when a hurricane hits your area?

I'd say being away from home/family when a cane hits.
Quoting weathersp:


You know better than that to say that here KMAN.. LOL..

but 99% of the time you are right, there is at least one...


I'll settle for 99%
Quoting kmanislander:


Pull the shutters before getting on the plane LOL
I'm leaving someone in the house, which does not negate the likelihood I'd be directing the shutter placement window by window long distance from my cell phone. . . lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
Which do u think is worse: being hit by a major hurricane, or being away from home/family when a hurricane hits your area?


No brainer...Being home during a major is worse...If you are away (hoping you have insurance) is better.
The wind off the coast of Tampa looks like the signature of a low, probably not...also why do all the buoys off the coast of Tampa read a South swell when the wind has constantly been out of the West...anyone have a clue

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/gmex/flash-vis.html
The other thing I am watching for this year is to see how well the GFS performs. It did really well last year, particularly 7 days out, but so far this year not up to the same standard. The NAM picked up on the recent Invest a good two days before the GFS.

I moved to NE Polk County now I get Bay News 9 instead of CF News 13. Not much coverage for my area there but that is what happens in the 4 corners. Klystron 9 looks good though
Quoting hahaguy:

I'd say being away from home/family when a cane hits.
I think I'd feel "stranded" - in a foreign country, wanting to get home but unable to.
654. ch2os
464. CycloneOz 7:30 PM EDT on July 01, 2009

Thank you for taking time to make those videos. They were fabulous and told such a magnificent story of what mother nature looks like when viewed at that distance.
Anyway, I only stopped in a for a bit tonight so will wish you all a good night.

Have a great evening .
Have a great night Kman :)

Tropics are still dead asleep I see.
Yeah, I'm out also - early start tomorrow. I'm looking forward to some days when I don't have to get up so EARLY!!!! lol

G'night.
Quoting hurricane2009:


I think you misread it, the other option was being away from your family during a hurricane

To me that is much worse


Of course the family would come with me. My dad is hard-headed and has been through a bunch of canes, I think he would stay.
Where is Patrap with the pickaxe guy that says -- Nothin :)

The average date for the first system to reach tropical storm strength is....July 12.
We have been spoiled in the last few years!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The average date for the first system to reach tropical storm strength is....July 12.



Hummm,

Its gonna be a quiet couple of weeks...
Quoting Ossqss:



Hummm,



what map is that? when? last week?
Quoting scottsvb:


what map is that? when? last week?


wait..your not posting the GFS 264 hrs out are ya? lmfao lets get real!
If it is quiet the next few weeks then I can keep putting up how much a percent of the season we have safely made it through for a while and stir more comments :)
Quoting scottsvb:


what map is that? when? last week?


Nope, from here. Interesting animation also.
Quoting scottsvb:


wait..your not posting the GFS 264 hrs out are ya? lmfao lets get real!


Just like any other model performace this year. I agree with you. High or low res., same result.
Quoting Ossqss:


Nope, from here. Interesting animation also.



lol dude anything after 120hrs out on the GFS is a Farmers Alnamac you saw what the GFS did to our last so-called system from 72hrs out...nada! You can post it...but its for laughs!
Quoting scottsvb:



lol dude anything after 120hrs out on the GFS is a Farmers Alnamac you saw what the GFS did to our last so-called system from 72hrs out...nada! You can post it...but its for laughs!


Yep, you have made that clear before and I don't think anyone would disagree with that take. What do you see in our future?
Quoting Ossqss:



Hummm,



Interesting
BTW, Scott, it was posted in direct relation to SSIGG's picks in our contest is all. He might get lucky -- LoL
Ok on a temporal basis we are 17% of the way through the hurricane season.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Ok on a temporal basis we are 17% of the way through the hurricane season.


Are we exactly 17% or are you rounding? I'd like to see the exact percentage including a decimal or two.
Quoting Ossqss:



Hummm,



It is merely a flux of moisture. Keep in mind that long range GFS beyond 180hrs amplify the precip swaths up to 5 times.
The current SAL out there right now is going to put a pretty tight lid on the wave train for the next 3-4 days easy. (look at the SAL maps... the one that just pulled off the coast is massive). With how things are setting up in the GOM and the Caribbean, it looks to be quiet for a while. Something could spin up off the coast of NC/SC, but its going to have an uphill battle.
Quoting futuremet:


It is merely a flux of moisture. Keep in mind that long range GFS beyond 180hrs amplify the swaths up to 5 times.


Understood, it was simply a jab, if you will, at one of the last 7 remaining prognosticators in our contest :)
Quoting Ossqss:


Understood, it was simply a jab, if you will, at one of the last 7 remaining prognosticators in our contest :)


I'm never playing that game again! I've been way off so far.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I'm never playing that game again! I've been way off so far.


Remember, the first date of a named storm was only the tie-breaker. I am sure you didi't win at Halo everytime, I know I did not :)

Be well all, L8R
Quoting Ossqss:


Remember, the first date of a named storm was only the tie-breaker. I am sure you didi't win at Halo everytime, I know I did not :)

Be well all, L8R


I can't remember, but I think I predicted a pretty active season.
Cane, we are 16.91% of the way through hurricane season as of 11 p.m. July 1
It looks like at NRL they are bored!

Link
Quoting CaneWarning:


I can't remember, but I think I predicted a pretty active season.


Click my handle and see what you picked. Its that easy and as refereced, there is only 16.91% of the season gone. LoL too many stats for me for one day :) ---- out!
The 18Z WRF model is quite interesting. IT shows a tropical wave entering the caribbean over the next couple days. The wave has pronounced inverted troughing, and some shower activity. Nevertheless, wind shear will be high, which I think, will inhibit coalescence.

Link
That wave that just came off Africa last night/this morning has one potent circulation, I think this one bears watching, JMO.
Quoting stormpetrol:
That wave that just came off Africa last night/this morning has one potent circulation, I think this one bears watching, JMO.


But look at the SAL:

I'm goin' to bed...somebody tell me a bedtime story...
WOW this rain is missing me entirely in Boca Raton.It was moving south and somehow all the storms are in Broward and we didn't get a drop here as it came from north to south.
Quoting hurricane2009:


I think you misread it, the other option was being away from your family during a hurricane

To me that is much worse

It happened to me twice. Katrina and Wilma. It was brutal. No communication for a while.
Does it even matter that directly funding scientific research by the Federal government is unconstitutional?
Quoting presslord:
I'm goin' to bed...somebody tell me a bedtime story...


Once upon a time, an old woman and her husband lived alone in a little old house. The couple had no children, and being lonely, the woman decided to make a boy of gingerbread. She carefully mixed the batter, rolled out the dough, and cut out out a very nice gingerbread man. She added sugar icing for his hair, mouth, and clothes, and she used candy chips for buttons and eyes. What a fine looking gingerbread man he was! The old woman put him in the oven to bake. After he was fully done, she slowly opened the oven door. Up jumped the gingerbread man, and he ran out the door saying,

"Run, run, as fast as you can!
You can't catch me!
I'm the Gingerbread Man!"

The old woman and the old man ran after him, but they could not catch him.
Quoting GordoNBrooke:
Does it even matter that directly funding scientific research by the Federal government is unconstitutional?


How so?
Quoting presslord:
I'm goin' to bed...somebody tell me a bedtime story...


Ask Adam Sandler, but don't ask for too much
Evening all! Models show nothing at all for the next 7-10 days. That can change but, enjoy the 4th of July weekend!
.....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....
good night press

later all iam out to catch some zzzzz
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
WOW this rain is missing me entirely in Boca Raton.It was moving south and somehow all the storms are in Broward and we didn't get a drop here as it came from north to south.
It's because the rain isn't moving north to south. Each individual cell is moving from SSW to NNE...
Quoting sporteguy03:
Klystron 9 looks good though


1.25 millon watts - yes, I use it to make coffee in the mornings, 100 miles away. I just set the cup on a WEST facing windowsill...
Article I, Section 8, Clause 8 of the U.S. Constitution:

Congress shall have the power . . . "To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries;"

The fact that the Founding Fathers specifically stated how Congress shall support the progress of science implies the exclusion of other means of supporting, including direct funding.

The reason they did this is because if a government wishes to gain power over the people, it can do so by directly funding scientists and scientific research that will lead to conclusions which will help the government convince the people that they need to give more power to government to "protect" them.

Additionally, since the government has a virtually unlimited ability to fund scientific research and exclude scientists who don't agree with the current regime's opinions from getting the money, scientists will be prone to skewing their results to match the results desired by the people in power. Scientists funded by private research are accused of doing this all the time; yet publically-funded researchers are treated as immune.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not against funding scientists or scientific research. However, the Founding Fathers knew what they were talking about, and it is much safer to privately fund scientific research than to leave it to a government constantly seeking to use the research to expand its inherent power.

702. Gordonbrook

Would you let someone patent public safety?
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI

AOI
Quoting GordoNBrooke:
Article I, Section 8, Clause 8 of the U.S. Constitution:

Congress shall have the power . . . "To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries;"

The fact that the Founding Fathers specifically stated how Congress shall support the progress of science implies the exclusion of other means of supporting, including direct funding.

The reason they did this is because if a government wishes to gain power over the people, it can do so by directly funding scientists and scientific research that will lead to conclusions which will help the government convince the people that they need to give more power to government to "protect" them.

Additionally, since the government has a virtually unlimited ability to fund scientific research and exclude scientists who don't agree with the current regime's opinions from getting the money, scientists will be prone to skewing their results to match the results desired by the people in power. Scientists funded by private research are accused of doing this all the time; yet publically-funded researchers are treated as immune.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not against funding scientists or scientific research. However, the Founding Fathers knew what they were talking about, and it is much safer to privately fund scientific research than to leave it to a government constantly seeking to use the research to expand its inherent power.



Amen! We already have Govt. funded scientific research through military channels alone. Not to mention the quasi-govt. orgs. No strings attatched funding would be great, if that was possible
AOI = Area On Ignore
LOL
Quoting GordoNBrooke:
Article I, Section 8, Clause 8 of the U.S. Constitution:

Congress shall have the power . . . "To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries;"

The fact that the Founding Fathers specifically stated how Congress shall support the progress of science implies the exclusion of other means of supporting, including direct funding.

The reason they did this is because if a government wishes to gain power over the people, it can do so by directly funding scientists and scientific research that will lead to conclusions which will help the government convince the people that they need to give more power to government to "protect" them.

Additionally, since the government has a virtually unlimited ability to fund scientific research and exclude scientists who don't agree with the current regime's opinions from getting the money, scientists will be prone to skewing their results to match the results desired by the people in power. Scientists funded by private research are accused of doing this all the time; yet publically-funded researchers are treated as immune.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not against funding scientists or scientific research. However, the Founding Fathers knew what they were talking about, and it is much safer to privately fund scientific research than to leave it to a government constantly seeking to use the research to expand its inherent power.



Well then No,it doesn't matter that directly funding scientific research by the Federal government is unconstitutional. Anyways you used the term implies which a synonym for assumes. A quick google search revealed that the supreme court has upheld public funding for science as constitutional several times.
http://www.einsteinalive.com/articles/problem-solve-like-einstein.htm

A hurricane research facility in Orlando? I like it! (No strings)
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
AOI = Area On Ignore
LOL


You have a better spot to highlight?
Its the only game in town right now.

I have no idea why you guys are still talking about the $50M. Its very simple... one of your politicians held the rest of them hostage on a vote, until the rest of the country paid him off so he could get re-elected. Down there you call in Pork Barrel Funding.... up here we call it misuse of public funds.

Quoting Orcasystems:
I have no idea why you guys are still talking about the $50M. Its very simple... one of your politicians held the rest of them hostage on a vote, until the rest of the country paid him off so he could get re-elected. Down there you call in Pork Barrel Funding.... up here we call it misuse of public funds.


It hasnt happened yet.
709 Orca.
You have a better spot to highlight?
Its the only game in town right now.


I didn't mean your areas. You have areas?

Quoting HIEXPRESS:
709 Orca.
You have a better spot to highlight?
Its the only game in town right now.


I didn't mean your areas. You have areas?



I'm not allowed to have my own area.. I'm married :(
That's funny. If you can't find an area, there is always space.
9 out of 10 Americans think the gov spends too much money. How many actually vote? Basicaly half would rather complain than do anything.

Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections • V.A.P. = Voting Age Population
(from 1972 includes citizens 18 years of age)
• REG = Registered to Vote
1824 - 2004

Year Total V.A.P. Total REG* % REG of V.A.P * Turnout % TO of V.A.P.
1824 26.9%
1828 57.6%
1832 55.4%
1836 57.8%
1840 80.2%
1844 78.9%
1848 72.7%
1852 69.6%
1856 78.9%
1860 81.2%
1864 73.8%
1868 78.1%
1872 71.3%
1876 81.8%
1880 79.4%
1884 77.5%
1888 79.3%
1892 74.7%
1896 79.3%
1900 73.2%
1904 65.2%
1908 65.4%
1912 58.8%
1916 61.6%
1920 49.2%
1924 48.9%
1928 56.9%
1932 56.9%
1936 61.0%
1940 62.5%
1944 55.9%
1948 53.0%
1952 63.3%
1956 60.6%
1960 109,672,000 63,854,789 * 58.22% 68,838,204 62.77%
1964 114,090,000 73,715,818 * 64.61% 70,644,592 61.92%
1968 120,328,186 81,658,180 * 67.86% 73,211,875 60.84%
1972 140,776,000 97,283,541 * 69.11% 77,718,554 55.21%
1976 152,309,190 105,024,916 * 68.96% 81,555,789 53.55%
1980 164,597,000 113,036,958 * 68.67% 86,515,221 52.56%
1984 174,468,000 124,184,647 * 71.18% 92,652,680 53.11%
1988 182,630,000 126,381,202 * 69.20% 91,594,693 50.15%
1992 189,044,500 133,821,178 * 70.79% 104,405,155 55.23%
1996 196,511,000 146,211,960 * 74.40% 96,456,345 49.08%
2000 205,815,000 156,421,311 * 76.00% 105,586,274 51.30%
2004 221,256,931 174,800,000 * 79.00% 122,295,345 55.27%
2008 231,229,580 TBD TBD 125-137 million TBD
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
That's funny. If you can't find an area, there is always space.


Your obviously not married... if I had any space... trust me.. she would use it to hang her spare outfits.
*****VOTE*****

Orca: I at least hope that she looks good in those outifits.
Quoting gator23:


Well then No,it doesn't matter that directly funding scientific research by the Federal government is unconstitutional. Anyways you used the term implies which a synonym for assumes. A quick google search revealed that the supreme court has upheld public funding for science as constitutional several times.


What search terms are you using because I can't find anything regarding the Supreme Court's opinion of federal funding in regards to that clause? Still, the Supreme Court isn't always right, and decisions are constantly revised and reversed as additional points are made regarding a particular topic.

Nonetheless, I disagree with your point about "implying" meaning the same as "assuming". If you give someone a task without stating how, then you leave it up to the person. If you give someone a task and then tell them how to do it, then you are excluding all other methods of performing the task.

I did find a great argument against public funding of scientific research. It's a little long, but a good read.

http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa022.html
Hail stones like eggs could be seen yesterday in Vitoria and a supercell storm was chased over La Rioja, both places in the northern Iberian Peninsula. If you want to see some photographs, please visit our website: http://www.cazatormentas.net/
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Good Morning.......Sheer is dropping a bit around Florida and Northern Gulf (but nothing on the short-term horizon out there) and remains hostile elsewhere. Don't see anything happening with the ULL south of Cuba making a beeline towards the Yucatan and very dry and stable air between the Antilles and Africa. Most interesting thing out there as noted by NHC is the wave emerging off of Africa, embedded in the ITCZ, which shows some low level rotation but which will probably dissipate on down the road. Basically, Zilch for now.
problem that the new administration faced was there was not enough collaterial for the failed loans. that creates a accounting problems. tons of clouds this yr in the carib. wet yr for jamaica happy weather
723. Weather456 7:07 AM EDT on July 02, 2009
Good Morning;
Looking At African Dust


Good Morning Bro.....Nice analysis on the rotation with the wave interacting with the SAL.....The Wife and kids are down in South Florida visiting the Family and coming back on Saturday to Tallahassee..Told them to bring me some Cuban and Carribean food; I can't get any decent Oxtails up here:)
Big weekend coming Folks.
Stop by my blog, check the rules, grab the kids and go. If ya don't have a kid in the house, consider borrowing a neighbor's.
It's for a good cause. Woo Hoo !!!
I can't get any decent Oxtails up here:)


There's a decent Jamaican joint on University in Plantation near Rosie Baby. Sure to have what you crave there ;>)
Good morning all 8-)
Quoting theshepherd:
I can't get any decent Oxtails up here:)


There's a decent Jamaican joint on University in Plantation near Rosie Baby. Sure to have what you crave there ;>)


Thanks; I normally hit Donna's on the corner of 441 and Broward Blvd when I am down there..
Quoting Orcasystems:


Your obviously not married... if I had any space... trust me.. she would use it to hang her spare outfits.


70*F in Macon, Ga this morning headed to 97*F.
Orca, my area is the 3 car garage, it holds my Escape, her Camry, my Harley, and my lawn tractor, what space is left I filled up with a work bench, tool cases, and various lawn equipment, I keep them dirty and dusty, and allow lots of spiders to build webs all over the place. The little guys take care of all the insects that somehow manage to get into the garage, but not only that, they keep her out of my garage! :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Thanks; I normally hit Donna's on the corner of 441 and Broward Blvd when I am down there..
Never made it to Donna's.
I was on a job down there for almost three years. Too many places, too little time. Rosey Baby was my fav hangout. Good people,music and good Cajun food.
Well, off to work; everyone have a great day and a Happy Safe 4th of July....WW
Quoting Orcasystems:


You have a better spot to highlight?
Its the only game in town right now.

If you want to follow thunderstorms and rainfall.
Good Morning.
There is only one thing to say this day..
SAL rules.
I'm so excited - family has arrived. Why oh why couldn't 93L have at least scared them away?!?
Quoting RTLSNK:


70*F in Macon, Ga this morning headed to 97*F.
Orca, my area is the 3 car garage, it holds my Escape, her Camry, my Harley, and my lawn tractor, what space is left I filled up with a work bench, tool cases, and various lawn equipment, I keep them dirty and dusty, and allow lots of spiders to build webs all over the place. The little guys take care of all the insects that somehow manage to get into the garage, but not only that, they keep her out of my garage! :)


True, the garage is mine :)
Thats where my workshop is to keep the tools... to build her stuff.
Quoting Cazatormentas:
Hail stones like eggs could be seen yesterday in Vitoria and a supercell storm was chased over La Rioja, both places in the northern Iberian Peninsula. If you want to see some photographs, please visit our website: http://www.cazatormentas.net/


Is that unusual weather there?

Chasing?

Remember to Respect the Wind
BOC swirl caught my eye. 10-20kts shear.. Here's WALTON's disscussion on it.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 16N92W TO 20N91W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN ARE
SUPPORTING A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 91W-94W.
Here's the RGB loop of the gulf. Neat outflow boundry from it.
Quoting Skyepony:
BOC swirl caught my eye. 10-20kts shear.. Here's WALTON's disscussion on it.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 16N92W TO 20N91W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN ARE
SUPPORTING A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 91W-94W.


Is there any chance for development?
That wave off the African coast would have had a very good shot to develop if all that dust was not there. It has a very potent mid-level circulation. It may have to be watched if it can sneak into a more favorable environment later on.
741. Inyo
If the government didn't sponsor science this country would be very, very different. much worse off in my opinion. There is the danger of politics getting involved in science as there is with politics getting involved with ANYTHING else... but we don't live under some kind of monarchy where King George hires scientists and cuts off the heads of the ones he doesn't like. Our country is run by elected representitives, as you all know, and if the representitives are bad, we should get rid of them, not blame the scientists.

I know a lot of (publically funded) scientists and most of them are way more devoted to figuring out how the world works than to politics of any sort. There are bad scientists just like anyone else but they are certainly no more likely to be corrupted than people in the private sector.
the wave at 50 seems to me the only possiblity in the next few days
There does appear to be a bit of a swirl in the BOC. Is there any chance for the wave at 50W to develop eventually???
The wave at 50 W is firing some convection, albeit a little, but it is in a very dry environment
Allstar~ I'd say very little chance at this point.
I know it isn't related to gov't funding of research, but another aspect of gov't intervention related to hurricane and their costs is attached in the article by WSJ.

I apologize if too far off the mark as far as the discussion, but I would like some thoughts on this. I think Dr. Master's had an article on this at one-time as it relates to mitigation, but I have not had any luck in finding it.

Oh, forgot to say: Long-time reader, first-time poster here.

Thanks.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123371173559046209.html
July 2nd and not a single invest or storm around the globe. Pretty amayzing.
Maybe they are seeding around the globe
749. IKE
Did these poor folks even know what hit them?

(CNN) -- The Air France plane that crashed last month with 228 people aboard "did not break up or become destroyed in flight," the French air investigation agency announced Thursday.

"The plane went straight down ... towards the surface of the water, very very fast," air accident investigator Alain Bouillard said.

Based on visual study of the physical remains of the Airbus A330 that have been recovered, "we were able to see that the plane hit the surface of the water flat. Therefore everything was pushed upwards -- everthing was pushed from the bottom to the top" of the plane, he said.

The 228 people killed in the crash "had no time to prepare," he said.
750. IKE
Quoting clwstmchasr:
July 2nd and not a single invest or storm around the globe. Pretty amayzing.


Yawn:)

Hope it continues.

151 more days left.
Quoting IKE:


Yawn:)

Hope it continues.

151 more days left.

Yes we can hope but we should know we only in early July and it is far to be the season peak.
Here is an iteresting tid bit on cost and savings to society from better technology relating to hurricane predictions. BTW, there is much more on this site than just this page :)

Link
Quoting IKE:


Yawn:)

Hope it continues.

151 more days left.


I find this year interesting and not such a yawner, I'll set your alarm clock:)
something to watch 50w
Quoting Ossqss:
Here is an iteresting tid bit on cost and savings to society from better technology relating to hurricane predictions. BTW, there is much more on this site than just this page :)

Link


That was a good read.
757. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


I find this year interesting and not such a yawner, I'll set your alarm clock:)


606 more GFS runs and it's over 8:)
Quoting clwstmchasr:
July 2nd and not a single invest or storm around the globe. Pretty amayzing.


Yeah, but maybe it is the calm before all the invests......meaning it could be a very active couple of months around the globe.

I am very surprised that there is not even in invest in the WPAC, usually there is at least 1 invest, if not several.
Back at ya Storm. Are we in for another gully washer day ? I am going to have to dig out my hip waders if this continues ;)
760. IKE
Defuniak Springs, FL
Clear
88 °F
Clear


Already approaching 90. Not even 10 am CDST.

May they let you RIP...MJ..your best song:)
Quoting IKE:


Yawn:)

Hope it continues.

151 more days left.

Remember in the incredible 2004 hurricane season, I remember in this site from mid-July to last day of July before Alex, some comments were:
an inactive season, an total ACE well under 150, at least one major hurricane landfall in the U.S and the Caribbean and many more...
Remember that it is perfectly impossible to have no hurricane or one in a season and never be astonished and under-estimated an hurricane season instead a weak to moderate el nino.
One major hurricane can devastated an area in the Caribbean or another place....similar to Allen and Andrew or Alicia.
Hope everyone has a great 4th of July,We might even have the sun come out for a little while this weekend.
Quoting Dar9895:

Remember in the incredible 2004 hurricane season, I remember in this site from mid-July to last day of July before Alex, some comments were:
an inactive season, an total ACE well under 150, at least one major hurricane landfall in the U.S and the Caribbean and many more...
Remember that it is perfectly impossible to have no hurricane or one in a season and never be astonished and under-estimated an hurricane season instead a weak to moderate el nino.
One major hurricane can devastated an area in the Caribbean or another place....similar to Allen and Andrew or Alicia.


Was there a blog in 2004?
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI

AOI
765. IKE
Quoting Dar9895:

Remember in the incredible 2004 hurricane season, I remember in this site from mid-July to last day of July before Alex, some comments were:
an inactive season, an total ACE well under 150, at least one major hurricane landfall in the U.S and the Caribbean and many more...
Remember that it is perfectly impossible to have no hurricane or one in a season and never be astonished and under-estimated an hurricane season instead a weak to moderate el nino.
One major hurricane can devastated an area in the Caribbean or another place....similar to Allen and Andrew or Alicia.



I know what happened in 2004, as do 99% of the folks on here. I wish for none of that.

Seems like about 1/2 of the posts on here are copy and paste.

I bet I've read that comment about comparing this year to 2004 at least 100 times.

LOL...now I know why destinjeff posts his blog sayings all of the time...funny and so true.
Quoting sporteguy03:


Was there a blog in 2004?


I think the blog started in 2005.
My Local Weather:
John Wayne-Orange County, California
65 °F
Mostly Cloudy


Very nice mid Level spin at 10N 50W that might have a good chance to develop! Not much in vorticity there yet but, just something to look at for the Islands.

Click to loop!

Link

Quoting TampaSpin:
Very nice mid Level spin at 10N 50W that might have a good chance to develop! Not much in vorticity there yet but, just something to look at for the Islands.

Click to loop!
Link


It looks decent.
Quoting hahaguy:


It looks decent.


Shear is currently around 30-40kts but, its forecast to drop to nearly nothing by the 5th. This could become the first possibly!
Hey,Tampa,good to see ya,was asking people where you disappeared to
Quoting NEwxguy:
Hey,Tampa,good to see ya,was asking people where you disappeared to


Can you believe i got a 24hr ban..my first..LOL
Quoting StormW:


I'm gonna buy a life vest...got another 2.82" yesterday. That makes 7.44" in 2 days.


Us New Englanders are trying to keep up with you Florida,talk about torrential downpours coming to work this morning. And a lot more to come today.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Can you believe i got a 24hr ban...LOL


For what lol?
Quoting TampaSpin:


Can you believe i got a 24hr ban..my first..LOL
You, of all people, to be banned!
welcome to my world, Tampa...

;)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Shear is currently around 30-40kts but, its forecast to drop to nearly nothing by the 5th. This could become the first possibly!


Yeh, somebody mentioned it yesterday,but I wouldn't believe it,not Tampa
Quoting beell:
06Z GFS 200mb - 850mb Zonal Shear


Beell.....here was the Shear forecast i was looking at......HUM! Big difference in the forecast.......

Quoting TampaSpin:


Shear is currently around 30-40kts but, its forecast to drop to nearly nothing by the 5th. This could become the first possibly!


It will also be in the Caribbean, so if it did develop, it will threaten land
Quoting TampaSpin:


Can you believe i got a 24hr ban..my first..LOL


So many get away with murder on here and then you get banned.
783. beell
LOL-A very big difference! I think the TUTT is gonna creep back into the picture over the Carribean-which would suggest higher shear.

And there will always be some difference between "Shear" and "Zonal" Shear-Easterly or Westerly shear is much more of a negative for development.
Quoting hahaguy:


For what lol?


They said i was spamming......LOL.
I remember posting for fun a link to my web for Troll Juice..which you all have probably seen and banned.......LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


Can you believe i got a 24hr ban..my first..LOL


Seems like its common around here these days,so your not alone.
Quoting TampaSpin:


They said i was spamming......LOL.
I remember posting for fun a link to my web for Troll Juice..which you all have probably seen and banned.......LOL


I thought the troll juice was funny lol.
Hummm, Tampaspam ,,, nah, it just doesn't sound right :)

Time to go finish the ark before next round that approaches.


Quoting Ossqss:
Hummm, Tampaspam ,,, nah, it just doesn't sound right :)





heck i ate way to much spam as a little kid.....i sure the heck don't want any more......LMAO
789. JRRP
i wonder what is wrong with www.weather.unisys.com site
Quoting Patrap:
Banned on the run..


Nice
Quoting NRAamy:
welcome to my world, Tampa...

;)


Felix should have never been banned.........LOL
Quoting StormW:


I'm gonna buy a life vest...got another 2.82" yesterday. That makes 7.44" in 2 days


Storm, I live in East Lake Woodlands an got 7.9" in 2 days.
Seems the real instigators do not get punished, the ones who slam others for giving their simple opinions... but who am i to say...

Anyway the weather.. forcasted to be 100+ here in SeTx this weekend...ugh!
Could not resist.....

Spam on the Run
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Seems the real instigators do not get punished, the ones who slam others for giving their simple opinions... but who am i to say...

Anyway the weather.. forcasted to be 100+ here in SeTx this weekend...ugh!


...weatherstudent
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


...weatherstudent


him and a few others...
Tampa...don't use the "F" word!!!!!!!

;)
Quoting NRAamy:
Tampa...don't use the "F" word!!!!!!!

;)


ROFLMAO
the AOI at 10n 50w doesnt look to bad... it would be interesting to see it hold together.. last i checked it doesnt have any model support, but we know how off the models have been this year. Probably the one's that don't get support will be the storms that form..lol!
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
the AOI at 10n 50w doesnt look to bad... it would be interesting to see it hold together.. last i checked it doesnt have any model support, but we know how off the models have been this year. Probably the one's that don't get support will be the storms that form..lol!


Actually convection has grown considerably over the last few hours when you look at the loop......LOOKING VEry good actually!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Actually convection has grown considerably over the last few hours when you look at the loop......LOOKING VEry good actually!


Your minds are convectionally challenged....

Poor Bloggers.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Actually convection has grown considerably over the last few hours when you look at the loop......LOOKING VEry good actually!
OK out of lurk mode for a minute...We need to get something going so good people like Tampa, Ike, and teh such won't be so bored as to get theirselves banned....lol
Quoting weathersp:


Your minds are convectionally challenged....

Poor Bloggers.


OH well you know what i mean......LOL
Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami
There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami.


Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information
The doom blogs are 3 doors down and to the right,,tyvm.
Tampa -- sorry if i wasn't clear... i was trying to convey that it would be interesting if it could hold together.. like a couple of days... my apologies :)
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Tampa -- sorry if i wasn't clear... i was trying to convey that it would be interesting if it could hold together.. like a couple of days... my apologies :)


No apologies needed! I understood what you ment....I was probably wasn't clear myself Sorry!
Quoting Patrap:
The doom blogs are 3 doors down and to the right,,tyvm.
Let me introduce you to my portfolio. I might need to lurk in that room awhile....lol
Too bad some live in a fantasy world!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Too bad some live in a fantasy world!


But Mr. Tampa sir what type of fantasy world there are so many you need to be more specfic. Am I right?!?!?!?!?!?
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
the AOI at 10n 50w doesnt look to bad... it would be interesting to see it hold together.. last i checked it doesnt have any model support, but we know how off the models have been this year. Probably the one's that don't get support will be the storms that form..lol!
It is too early in the season, climatology speaking, for some of these models to correctly anaylize and predict these "systems".
Quoting NRAamy:
Tampa...don't use the "F" word!!!!!!!

;)


Which one?
Quoting Vortex95:


But Mr. Tampa sir what type of fantasy world there are so many you need to be more specfic. Am I right?!?!?!?!?!?


NOw your going to get me banned again...LOL
LOL okay I lay off Spinster :).
823. 7544
wave around 50 looks good but the one looks better behind it around 35 imo
Look how warm the southeast United States is. Indicated by the purple colors - infrared temperature 40C.

Canewarning...there is only one as far as I am concerned...
Quoting Weather456:
Look how warm the southeast United States is. Indicated by the purple colors

Or for those a little challanged in life, you could just step outside.
Just wondering what anyones thoughts are of Texas getting a tropical storm/hurricane this year? We had to evacuate for Rita (05) and Ike (08). Rita hit closer to home than ike but ike was just so huge that we had to evacuate for it as well.....just curious.
Good Afternoon, interesting feature at about 10/52. Link
It may be quiet here in the North Caribbean, but I can tell you that we have had no turtles laying there eggs on the beaches thus far and last year they started in late May. Fisherman say it is a sign of a big storm this year...will have to see how the turtles and weather play out.
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Just wondering what anyones thoughts are of Texas getting a tropical storm/hurricane this year? We had to evacuate for Rita (05) and Ike (08). Rita hit closer to home than ike but ike was just so huge that we had to evacuate for it as well.....just curious.


where you from in texas?
Interesting feature in the North Atlantic. This is currently a shallow warm-core and non frontal feature



Quoting TexasHurricane:
Just wondering what anyones thoughts are of Texas getting a tropical storm/hurricane this year? We had to evacuate for Rita (05) and Ike (08). Rita hit closer to home than ike but ike was just so huge that we had to evacuate for it as well.....just curious.


The risk for Texas is large any year, and you should always be prepared. This year with storms tending to form closer to home most land areas have an increased risk of having a storm make landfall in their area, including the Gulf of Mexico, and the gulf waters are very warm this year.

Bottom line: ALWAYS be ready for being hit, EVERY year.
10N/52W


Link
Levi--

but if the strong troughing continues shouldn't that help protect Texas? wouldn't it recurve the storms towards Florida or out to sea?
southeast,texas area
Quoting Weather456:
Interesting feature in the North Atlantic. This is currently a shallow warm-core and non frontal feature





Nice spin 456 but, its to far north to do anything but, give shipping problems.
Any turtles nesting in the Texas area? Southeast TX/Louisiana
Quoting islagal:
It may be quiet here in the North Caribbean, but I can tell you that we have had no turtles laying there eggs on the beaches thus far and last year they started in late May. Fisherman say it is a sign of a big storm this year...will have to see how the turtles and weather play out.


Hum....most often the Sea creatures are a great indicator of things to come...
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Levi--

but if the strong troughing continues shouldn't that help protect Texas? wouldn't it recurve the storms towards Florida or out to sea?


The current pattern is troughing near or just east of the US east coast. That puts a ridge over Texas that yes would deflect most storms coming from the Caribbean, but all it takes is a northward or eastward shift in the ridge and you can get a storm that sneaks under and straight west into Texas. There's nothing preventing a storm from developing underneath the ridge in the gulf either. A lot of Texas' worst storms like Alicia and Audrey formed as home brew close to home and then devastated Texas.

The fact is no matter what the long-term pattern is, you can get a storm anytime, anywhere, if the parameters are right.
Quoting islagal:
It may be quiet here in the North Caribbean, but I can tell you that we have had no turtles laying there eggs on the beaches thus far and last year they started in late May. Fisherman say it is a sign of a big storm this year...will have to see how the turtles and weather play out.


Where do you live Islagal? I have a great interest in the turtle theory.
Quoting TampaSpin:


NOw your going to get me banned again...LOL
I wouldn't report you Tampa
Shear to the west for 10N/52W.
Looks more favorable to the northwest.
Link
Post 811 - Those of us who live in hurricane prone areas come here for tropical weather updates and other weather related topics, not Dow updates and political talking points.
845 chichswx

Agreed....
Quoting NRAamy:
Canewarning...there is only one as far as I am concerned...


I assume you mean "First" when people make the first comment on the blog.
Does someone know how when using HTML.....when you post a pic on website or blog or even a link, you can make it open a new window rather than leaving the orginal site........please email me if you know .....Thanks!
Can't help but wonder that since Texas has been so HOT and DRY, that this is the calm before the storm......hmmmm
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Can't help but wonder that since Texas has been so HOT and DRY, that this is the calm before the storm......hmmmm


It definitely can be....especially when that hot and dry weather warms up the SSTs in the gulf so much. If I lived down there I would be concerned. You should see what your local turtles have been doing :)
the area 10n 52w is a tropical wave with a mid level circulation. the environment is very hostile with south westerly shear blowing off the cloud tops to the northeast. also there is also a stable environment with dry sinking air. the syatem may have a chance when it gets into the caribbean,. at the moment tropical cyclogenesis does not seem likely in the near future
Quoting Levi32:


It definitely can be....especially when that hot and dry weather warms up the SSTs in the gulf so much. If I lived down there I would be concerned. You should see what your local turtles have been doing :)


Thank goodness our turtles are active here!
look at this loop...

What is that burst looking feature that happens in the B of C?
Thanks Stormfury. I've seen 'waves' like that develop at that place this time of year. Maybe they'll mention it in the 2 p.m. Discussion.
Quoting TexasHurricane:
southeast,texas area


same here... i live in orange...

no havent seen any turtles to much
Levi32

I am actually wondering about that. Anyone know what the turtles are doing??? Texas/Louisiana

A friend of mine said that the Farmers almanac said that we were suppose to have a bad hurricane this year for this area. Don't know how acurate the farmers almancac is though.
Really active lightning and thunder early this morning in Grand Cayman. The light show must've gone on for about an hour or more.
Quoting ph34683:
look at this loop...

What is that burst looking feature that happens in the B of C?


That is a very nice example of an outflow boundary. It initiated from a thunderstorm that collapsed in the SE Bay of Campeche. When a thunderstorm collapses the downdraft overcomes the updraft and all the air that was previously being lifted up sinks back to the surface. As it hits the ocean it spreads outwards forming the boundary that you see in satellite imagery. When you see these boundaries within a tropical cyclone it usually means they are either disorganized or are inhaling a lot of dry air.
Those sea turtles are fine,no unusual activity,but them Cajun's Like us snatch up the Loggerheads and Big Snappers for Turtle Soup & Gumbo..


Whoo Boy...!
Thanks Levi32! Pretty neat to see on the satellite loop!
Thanks for the info Levi, I have seen those several times and wondered as well.

On a different note - ouch, my weather toolbar has a thermometer with flames at the top for tomorrows forcast! LOL (I think).
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi32

I am actually wondering about that. Anyone know what the turtles are doing??? Texas/Louisiana

A friend of mine said that the Farmers almanac said that we were suppose to have a bad hurricane this year for this area. Don't know how acurate the farmers almancac is though.
Why all the wasted money on satellites, models, research...we just need to read the farmer's almanac and watch the turtles. Millions of dollars could be saved. Why has the NHC not picked up on this...hell, why do we even need the NHC if they are not going to give us the turtle reports, graphs, models.
Patrap

What area are you in? (for the turtles)

You close to Texas border?
I was watching the BOC this morning. The TS was getting a little swirl to it in 10-20kts shear. The outflow boundry occured when the shear went to 20+ kts. Knocked the life right out of it.
Post 828, Chicklit.
Yeah, interesting. Especially since it has absolutely nothing to feed on, with all that dry air around it.
Maybe we should keep an eye out there. Anything with that much persistance........
New Orleans...

Uptown.
Louisiana Marine Mammal and Sea Turtle Rescue Program

Sea Turtle Rescue



Photo by Jeff Strout

The Louisiana Marine Mammal and Sea Turtle Rescue Program is a volunteer organization based out of Audubon Nature Institute's Aquarium of the America in New Orleans. It is committed to the humane care and treatment of injured, ill, or out-of-habitat marine mammals and sea turtles.

LMMSTRP works with several other organizations to respond to stranded marine mammals and sea turtles, to collect data about existing populations of marine animals along the Louisiana coast and waterways, and to help researchers develop new knowledge in support of the conservation of marine species
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:


wow look at this storm

ur image didn't work its shows an x on it
This year the farmers almanac is predicting a hurricane near the Carolinas August 4th-7th and a possible hurricane to affect New England August 16th-19th.

Last year they predicted the gulf coast to see hurricane threats in mid-July, mid-August, and mid-September. They weren't too far off. We did get 3 bad storms. Dolly in mid-late July, Gustav at the start of September, and Ike in mid-September.

The almanac also predicted 9 named storms last year with 80% confidence in the forecast, and only a 20-40% chance of getting as many as 12-13 storms. Well....we got 16 named storms last year.

That's all I can find for now. You gotta pay to see most of the Almanac stuff.
Patrap

Wonder how they are closer to Texas...
Nothing mentioned

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021748
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Gustav first outer band arriving NOLA,last Sept

Levi32

This is what I found...

"Summer temperatures will be two to three degrees above normal, on average, with the hottest periods in late June, the greater part of July, and early August. Expect a hurricane in late July or early August."
nothing in the EPAC either.....it has been very quiet here so far this season

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021751
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi32

This is what I found...

"Summer temperatures will be two to three degrees above normal, on average, with the hottest periods in late June, the greater part of July, and early August. Expect a hurricane in late July or early August."


Hmm....this is the one I found....doesn't mention a hurricane.

July 2009
1st-3rd Clear and turning warmer. 4th-7th Monsoon showers and hot for New Mexico. Fair, dry, and very warm elsewhere. 8th-11th Heavy showers and storms lead to localized flooding for New Mexico and Texas Panhandle south. 12th-15th Very warm, with threatening skies. 16th-19th Unsettled and warm. 20th-23rd Unusually heavy monsoon storms for New Mexico, some as far east as southern Texas. 24th-27th Hot and thundery. 28th-31st Continued hot.


August 2009
1st-3rd Heat and humidity prevails. 4th-7th Big thunderstorms, potentially severe. 8th-11th Clear and dry. 12th-15th More clouds than sun. 16th-19th Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. 20th-23rd Hot and dry. 24th-27th Increasing thunderstorm activity. 28th-31st Showers and thunderstorms, followed by cooler air.
Quoting Levi32:
The farmers almanac is predicting a hurricane near the Carolinas August 4th-7th and a possible hurricane to affect New England August 16th-19th.

Last year they predicted the gulf coast to see hurricane threats in mid-July, mid-August, and mid-September. They weren't too far off. We did get 3 bad storms. Dolly in mid-late July, Gustav at the start of September, and Ike in mid-September.

The almanac also predicted 9 named storms last year with 80% confidence in the forecast, and only a 20-40% chance of getting as many as 12-13 storms. Well....we got 16 named storms last year.

That's all I can find for now. You gotta pay to see most of the Almanac stuff.


Doesn't sound like it is worth it to pay for it... Seems just as accurate as any of the "free" models out there.

I think that this is the best place to find out about storms, although it is fun to guess where the next storm will form or where it will hit...
Levi32

Here is the link, where I saw it.

http://www.almanac.com/weatherforecast/us/11
WARNING: Just my opinion, Skip this post to continue with current discussion.
RE: Discussion a couple of pages back, federal funding of research.
Quoting GordoNBrooke:
Article I, Section 8, Clause 8 of the U.S. Constitution:

Congress shall have the power . . . "To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries;"

The fact that the Founding Fathers specifically stated how Congress shall support the progress of science implies the exclusion of other means of supporting, including direct funding.

The reason they did this is because if a government wishes to gain power over the people, it can do so by directly funding scientists and scientific research that will lead to conclusions which will help the government convince the people that they need to give more power to government to "protect" them.
Not sure that I agree with your conclusion as to the Founding Fathers intent. I find the section that I highlighted most interesting. The implication is that if research is funded by The People, after a reasonable time it becomes the property of The People.

It seems that we may be talking about two different animals
1) Funding of agencies which promote the safety and protection of The People (certainly a purview of the feds). Examples would be the NOAA and the Military. Hurricane research would fall into this catagory.
2) Funding of individuals, or individual theories. Examples would be National Endowment of the Arts, research ear marked specifically to prove global warming. - May be a great project, but should it be in the purview of the feds?

: )
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi32

Here is the link, where I saw it.

http://www.almanac.com/weatherforecast/us/11


This is mine lol.

Your's is supposedly the "old farmers' almanac"....old vs new....whatever lol. I trust turtles better.

One interesting thing is that both sites predict hurricanes for the Carolinas and New England in late August and September.
Wow, from north of the Lesser Antillies into Florida, shear is 5-10 knots! Lets say if a Hurricane were to be north of those islands, heading into the GOM, it would actually have no problem becoming a major storm. Good thing there is no disturbance in that area.
Levi32

Hmmmmm,weird two totally different ones. What are the turtles doing here???
Quoting hunkerdown:
Why all the wasted money on satellites, models, research...we just need to read the farmer's almanac and watch the turtles. Millions of dollars could be saved. Why has the NHC not picked up on this...hell, why do we even need the NHC if they are not going to give us the turtle reports, graphs, models.
And don't forget the landcrab report!
When Ana forms that is expected to be a big event. lol


Link
this one says hurricane in Sept.
Quoting reedzone:
Wow, from north of the Lesser Antillies into Florida, shear is 5-10 knots! Lets say if a Hurricane were to be north of those islands, heading into the GOM, it would actually have no problem becoming a major storm. Good thing there is no disturbance in that area.


Well low shear doesn't always mean good upper-level conditions. When you see a very narrow corridor of low shear like that, it doesn't usually mean a good environment for hurricane formation. For example, the axis of a TUTT (upper trough) will have zero shear right at the axis. So will the center of an upper low. Both these environments will not support a hurricane, so the shear maps can be deceiving.

In this case there is a positively tilted TUTT north of the Antilles which is showing up as low shear along its axis. As you get into the Bahamas there is a squashed ridge axis pointing ENE, and there is low shear as well. But the reality is both these areas would not support a major hurricane at all when you look at the upper air flow. The TUTT is always bad news for tropical systems and the squashed high provides no ventilation. The trough pressing down from the north over the SE US wouldn't be good for a developing storm either.
Here's the full 2 p.m. NHC Atlantic Discussion.
Link
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Levi32

Hmmmmm,weird two totally different ones. What are the turtles doing here???


I wish I knew. I don't know how to find out what turtles are doing anywhere except by asking people that live there.
The study was funded by the National Commission on Energy Policy, a nonprofit based in Washington, D.C.

Study: Hurricane damage on Texas coast to worsen

JUAN A. LOZANO
Associated Press Writer
Thursday, July 2, 2009

GALVESTON, Texas (AP) — Flooding and damage along the Texas Gulf Coast from major hurricanes is expected to be more severe in the coming years due to global warming, according to a study released Monday.

Engineering researchers at Texas A&M University focused on Corpus Christi to illustrate how climate change will affect hurricane-related flooding and storm surge damage along the Texas Gulf Coast.

I have a farmers almanac and it says 2 hits for the Tx/La coasts... both in sept
One can refer all the Sea Turtles questions to these Helpful folks. Just e-mail them and the should respond in kind.

Louisiana Marine Mammal and Sea Turtle Rescue Program

Sea Turtle Rescue



Photo by Jeff Strout

The Louisiana Marine Mammal and Sea Turtle Rescue Program is a volunteer organization based out of Audubon Nature Institute's Aquarium of the America in New Orleans. It is committed to the humane care and treatment of injured, ill, or out-of-habitat marine mammals and sea turtles.

LMMSTRP works with several other organizations to respond to stranded marine mammals and sea turtles, to collect data about existing populations of marine animals along the Louisiana coast and waterways, and to help researchers develop new knowledge in support of the conservation of marine species
Pat once again you amaze me with your your link posting.. you always have a helpful link for everyone! thanks again!
I just use Google News,with HURRICANE and get a lot of stuff..

What are the chances of all that moisture in the Gulf backing up and giving Nola some needed rain???
895. SomeRandomTexan

Really......hmmmmmm. Like I said in one on my other post. As hot and dry as it has been,you can't help but wonder if it is the calm before the storm.....


Link

Excerpt: 2 p.m.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS VERY BROAD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING AN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING NEARLY A 1000 NM AREA. THE AXIS IS PLACED ROUGHLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WHERE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS SUGGEST A VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 10N29W. SYNOPTIC PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOW A 3 MB PRESSURE INCREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS... INDICATIVE OF THE WAVE PASSAGE. QUIKSCAT DATA REVEALS NE 20-25 KT WINDS W OF THE AXIS N OF 14N DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED W TO ALONG 47W/48W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE ADJUSTMENT IN POSITION WAS BASED ON AN INVERTED V-SHAPE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD WHICH AGREES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LOW TO ITS W IS FUELING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 49W-52W.



Quoting saintsfan06:
What are the chances of all that moisture in the Gulf backing up and giving Nola some needed rain???




Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1220 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2009
Quoting Patrap:
The study was funded by the National Commission on Energy Policy, a nonprofit based in Washington, D.C.

Study: Hurricane damage on Texas coast to worsen

JUAN A. LOZANO
Associated Press Writer
Thursday, July 2, 2009

GALVESTON, Texas (AP) — Flooding and damage along the Texas Gulf Coast from major hurricanes is expected to be more severe in the coming years due to global warming, according to a study released Monday.

Engineering researchers at Texas A&M University focused on Corpus Christi to illustrate how climate change will affect hurricane-related flooding and storm surge damage along the Texas Gulf Coast.



I thought you said the "doom" blog was three doors down?
an offtopic question. I have been looking for what establishes the baseline for all the charts and graphs that I read concerning global temperatures. They all have a "zero" line base that determines the extent of the anomaly.. can anyone tell me how they arrive at that "zero" line. It would have to be some sort of average, but from when to when.. thanks for any help or thoughts, I appreciate it.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
I have a farmers almanac and it says 2 hits for the Tx/La coasts... both in sept


Well, a hurricane hitting SE TX in Sept. is a pretty good bet. Don't know which Sept. Lol. But they hit here in Sept. more than in other month. On Sept. 13th more than any other day come to think of it. I got all this history stuff on the other computer. Got a lot of time on my hands. Lol. Oh well, who knows. I'll just keep an eye on things. There are no signs I can see that would tell you one was coming. Bout the best warning we can get is from the NHC. Or WU. Places like that. (this?) Unless its Humberto but surely THAT doesn't happen everyday. Lol.
The wave at about 35W is pretty big, and has a large area of cyclonic turning. Any chances for development?

How interesting...

New type of El Nino could mean more hurricanes make landfall

"Normally, El Niño results in diminished hurricanes in the Atlantic, but this new type is resulting in a greater number of hurricanes with greater frequency and more potential to make landfall," said Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.

That's because this new type of El Niño, known as El Niño Modoki (from the Japanese meaning "similar, but different"), forms in the Central Pacific, rather than the Eastern Pacific as the typical El Niño event does. Warming in the Central Pacific is associated with a higher storm frequency and a greater potential for making landfall along the Gulf coast and the coast of Central America.

Even though the oceanic circulation pattern of warm water known as El Niño forms in the Pacific, it affects the circulation patterns across the globe, changing the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. This regular type of El Niño (from the Spanish meaning "little boy" or "Christ child") is more difficult to forecast, with predictions of the December circulation pattern not coming until May. At first glance, that may seem like plenty of time. However, the summer before El Niño occurs, the storm patterns change, meaning that predictions of El Niño come only one month before the start of hurricane season in June. But El Niño Modoki follows a different prediction pattern.

"This new type of El Niño is more predictable," said Webster. "We're not sure why, but this could mean that we get greater warning of hurricanes, probably by a number of months."

As to why the form of El Niño is changing to El Niño Modoki, that's not entirely clear yet, said Webster.

"This could be part of a natural oscillation of El Niño," he said. "Or it could be El Niño's response to a warming atmosphere. There are hints that the trade winds of the Pacific have become weaker with time and this may lead to the warming occurring further to the west. We need more data before we know for sure."


http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-07/giot-nto062909.php

I see I am going to have to make time to read the full article.
909. Wow. Atmo. That is interesting. Hmmmm. Different but interesting. :)
We just had a nasty storm roll through here in PSL. It was really windy and turned the power off for 30 minutes.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
909. Wow. Atmo. That is interesting. Hmmmm. Different but interesting. :)


I would like to see Dr. M do a blog on this research and analyze it further. Would be very good slow-early-July material.

It's got to have good roots with Peter Webster and Judy Curry involved, in my opinion.
Quoting AllStar17:
The wave at about 35W is pretty big, and has a large area of cyclonic turning. Any chances for development?


The shear is a bit higher but there are dry and dusty air around it, so perhaps not yet.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. THIS WAVE IS VERY BROAD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATING AN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING NEARLY A 1000 NM
AREA. THE AXIS IS PLACED ROUGHLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE WHERE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS SUGGEST A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NEAR 10N29W. SYNOPTIC PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOW A 3 MB PRESSURE INCREASE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...INDICATIVE OF THE WAVE PASSAGE. QUIKSCAT DATA REVEALS NE
20-25 KT WINDS W OF THE AXIS N OF 14N DUE TO THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF
THE ITCZ.


Humm, Interesting...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NORTH MIAMI
BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. A STORM SPOTTER REPORTED A
WALL CLOUD WITH STRONG ROTATION AT MIAMI GARDENS DRIVE AND
INTERSTATE 95.

The 1995 and 2004 hurricane season is far the most notables for me, followed by 1996, 1998 and 2003.
Quoting atmoaggie:


I would like to see Dr. M do a blog on this research and analyze it further. Would be very good slow-early-July material.

It's got to have good roots with Peter Webster and Judy Curry involved, in my opinion.


Yes I'd like to hear his and other opinions about this. I'm new to this El Nino thing. But this would certainly be an important find, I guess you could say, in the field of meteorology. Not to mention important to hurricane forecasting. I'd love to hear more.
How about some research on love bugs..

Now, how about love bugs? Heavy love bug season, less canes/more canes and vice versa. What type of love bug season was 2004-2005? This year there were very few love bugs.

Silly stuff! :)

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY EVERYONE!!!!!!!
Quoting Dar9895:
The 1995 and 2004 hurricane season is far the most notables for me, followed by 1996, 1998 and 2003 (especially of long-lived storm such as Cape Verde hurricanes and ACE near 50 or over).
What about you guys.
Quoting Patrap:
I just use Google News,with HURRICANE and get a lot of stuff..



You can google anything and get interesting info :)
The Carolina bred blob in the Atl the CMC has occationally hinted at pulling together enough to harass the Azores.
Quoting conchygirl:
How about some research on love bugs..

Now, how about love bugs? Heavy love bug season, less canes/more canes and vice versa. What type of love bug season was 2004-2005? This year there were very few love bugs.

Silly stuff! :)

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY EVERYONE!!!!!!!


Very true. I hardly saw any love bugs.
909. I had just read the MSNBC article about this phenomenon. Fascinating material, especially:

Quoting MSNBC:
"We spent all last week trying to figure that out," Webster said. 'It looks like it might be a hybrid," with warming starting in the east and them moving west, possibly meaning more hurricanes late in the season.
WOW. Its Raining Already? .... So Much for Washing the Car.....
Quoting Levi32:


Well low shear doesn't always mean good upper-level conditions. When you see a very narrow corridor of low shear like that, it doesn't usually mean a good environment for hurricane formation. For example, the axis of a TUTT (upper trough) will have zero shear right at the axis. So will the center of an upper low. Both these environments will not support a hurricane, so the shear maps can be deceiving.

In this case there is a positively tilted TUTT north of the Antilles which is showing up as low shear along its axis. As you get into the Bahamas there is a squashed ridge axis pointing ENE, and there is low shear as well. But the reality is both these areas would not support a major hurricane at all when you look at the upper air flow. The TUTT is always bad news for tropical systems and the squashed high provides no ventilation. The trough pressing down from the north over the SE US wouldn't be good for a developing storm either.



not to mention the amount of moisture and temp thruout the troposphere!!!!,TC's don't do well no matter what the shear if there's dry air in the UL....
Hey all! We see very few ants here, but I saw tons of ants swarming everywhere this morning while I was out exercising - does that mean I'm going to get hit by a hurricane :o) LOL
Here we go here in SE TX:

CITY OF LEAGUE CITY
Message sent - 7/2/2009
Reminder:Mandatory Water Rationing

The City of League City has reached MODERATE Water Shortage Conditions. City Ordinance NO 2002-26 and the League City Drought Contingency Plan requires that we enact a stage 2 response to this water shortage. Stage 2 response requires that citizens follow the listed MANDATORY rules regarding water conservation. This mandatory water rationing goes into effect Thursday, July 2, 2009. This plan should allow the City to achieve a ten percent reduction in daily water demand.

Water Use Restrictions as required by City of League City Ordinance NO. 2002-26 and The League City Drought Contingency Plan.

Water use restrictions: Under threat of penalty for violation, the following water use restrictions shall apply to all persons:

1. Irrigation of landscaped areas with hose-end sprinklers or automatic irrigation systems shall be limited to Tuesdays and Thursdays for customers with even-numbered addresses, and Mondays and Wednesdays for water customers with odd-numbered addresses, and irrigation of landscaped areas is further limited to the hours between midnight and 5:00 a.m., and between 8:00 p.m. and midnight on designated watering days. However, irrigation of landscaped areas is permitted at anytime if it is by means of a hand-held hose, a faucet filled bucket or watering can of five gallons or less, or a drip irrigation system.

2. Use of water to wash any motor vehicle, motorbike, boat, trailer, airplane, or other vehicle is prohibited except on designated watering days between midnight and 5:00 a.m. and between 8:00 p.m. and midnight. Such washing, when allowed, shall be done with a hand-held bucket or a hand-held hose equipped with a positive shutoff nozzle for quick rinses. Vehicle washing may be done at any time of the immediate premises of a commercial car wash or commercial service station. Further, such washing may be exempted from these regulations if the health, safety and welfare of the public is contingent upon frequent vehicle cleansing, such as garbage trucks and vehicles used to transport food and perishables.

3. Use of water to fill, refill or add to any indoor or outdoor swimming pools, wading pools and Jacuzzi-type pools is prohibited except on designated watering days between midnight and 5:00 a.m. and between 8:00 p.m. and midnight.

4. Operation of any ornamental fountain or pond for aesthetic or scenic purposes is prohibited except when necessary to support aquatic life or when such fountains or ponds are equipped with a recirculation system.
5. Use of water from hydrants shall be limited to fire fighting, related activities, or other activities necessary to maintain public health, safety and welfare, except that use of water from designated fire hydrants for construction purposes may be allowed under special permit from the city.

6. Use of water for the irrigation of golf course greens, tee boxes, and fairways is prohibited except on designated watering days between midnight and 5:00 a.m. and between 8:00 p.m. and midnight. However, if the golf course utilizes a water source other than that provided by the city, the facility shall not be subject to these regulations.

7. All restaurants are prohibited from serving water to patrons except upon request of the patron.

8. The following uses of water are defined as non-essential and are prohibited:
i. Washing down of any sidewalks, walkways, driveways, parking lots, tennis courts or other hard-surfaced areas;
ii. Using water to wash down buildings or structures for purposes other than immediate fire protection;
iii. Using water for dust control;
iv. Flushing gutters or permitting water to run or accumulate in any gutter or street; and
v. Failing to repair a controllable leak within a reasonable period of five days after having been given notice directing the repair of such leak

For water conservation tips and/or questions concerning this notice, please call 311.


To listen to the above message, you will need audio software and speakers on your computer.


This e-mail has been sent to you by the CITY OF LEAGUE CITY. To maximize their communication with you, you may be receiving this e-mail in addition to a phone call with the same message. If you wish to discontinue this service, please inform the CITY OF LEAGUE CITY either IN PERSON, by US MAIL, or by TELEPHONE at (281) 554-1496. THIS E-MAIL ADDRESS IS NOT MONITORED. Please do not reply to this e-mail as we are not able to respond to messages sent to this address.


New Blog
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Hey all! We see very few ants here, but I saw tons of ants swarming everywhere this morning while I was out exercising - does that mean I'm going to get hit by a hurricane :o) LOL


I would not have believed it, but check your computer. No kidding.

NASA moves to save computers from swarming ants
wonder if that means Houston,TX will have a hurricane this year? LOL

Hmmmm,Houston is about 2 hours away from us....
Well its a given, based on almanacs, turtles, love bugs, ants, ground hogs, current temps, models 3,743 hours out...Texas will be hit with not one, but 2 hurricanes on Sugust 27 and Sept 17. Come on, do you really think anyone's GUESS as to what, when, why, how, how big and how strong have any TRUE merits ?

Now, lets move along people.

With ludicrous posts that relate to the above, comments about the stock market and commodities trading are far better posts.

Bottom line, when it happens, it happens. Where it happens will be where it happens. And until something of substance is out there, just be aware and ready.