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Nepartak Holding on to Category 5 Strength Just Hours Before Landfall in Taiwan

By: Jeff Masters 4:06 PM GMT on July 07, 2016

Super Typhoon Nepartak is holding on to Category 5 strength just hours before landfall in southern Taiwan. At 8 am EDT Thursday, the Japanese Meteorological Agency estimated that Nepartak had a central pressure of 900 mb, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated top sustained winds of 160 mph. Buoy NTU2 (located about 170 km southeast of Taitung, Taiwan) recorded a surface pressure of approximately 897 mb as the eye passed over between 7:50 - 8:20 am EDT Thursday. Satellite loops from NOAA/SSED and NOAA/RAMMB showed that Nepartak had weakened slightly on Thursday morning, with the eye warming and the area of heaviest eyewall thunderstorms shrinking in size. The storm still remained a very formidable Category 5 storm, though, and its annular structure--with a large donut-like central area of heavy thunderstorms with very little in the way of spiral banding--will make the typhoon more resistant to weakening than typical tropical cyclones.


Figure 1. Radar image of Super Typhoon Nepartak taken at 11:30 am EDT July 7, 2016 (11:30 pm local time in Taiwan.) Image credit: Taiwan CWB.


Figure 2. MODIS visible satellite image of Super Typhoon Nepartak at 02:30 UTC July 7 (10:30 pm EDT July 6), 2016. At the time, Nepartak was a Category 5 super typhoon with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Buoy NTU2 (located about 170 km southeast of Taitung, Taiwan) recorded a surface pressure of approximately 897 mb as the eye passed over between 7:50 - 8:20 am EDT Thursday. Image credit: Institute of Oceanography, Taiwan National University. Thanks go to Brian McNoldy and WU member Carnivorous for these links.

Nepartak's impact on Taiwan and China
Nepartak had slowed down to a west-northwest motion at 10 mph on Thursday morning (U.S. EDT), and the typhoon will make landfall in the southern portion of Taiwan later on Thursday. Passage over the high mountains of Taiwan will significantly disrupt Nepartak, and the typhoon is likely to make a second landfall in mainland China on Saturday as a tropical storm.

About 1 - 2" of rain has fallen over Taiwan during the past ten days, so the soils should be able to absorb some of the expected 5 - 15" of rain Nepartak will dump over much of the island. Nevertheless, damaging flooding from the torrential rains of Super Typhoon Nepartak will likely cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to agriculture in Taiwan. The bigger concern for heavy rainfall from Nepartak is in mainland China, though. Exceptionally heavy monsoon rains affected large portions of central and eastern China over the past ten days, bringing rampaging floods that killed at least 140 people since June 30 and caused billions in damage. The soils are still saturated from these rains, and Nepartak's rains will trigger additional damaging flooding. The largest city in central China--Wuhan, with a population of 10.8 million--received over 560 mm (1.8 feet) of rain over the past ten days, with an additional 7.09” (180 mm) of rain falling in the twelve hours ending at 8 am July 6, causing widespread chaos there. However, the Thursday morning run of the HWRF model (Figure 5) showed the heaviest rains of Nepartak would likely remain south of the area flooded by last week's rains.


Figure 4. A stadium in Wuhan, China on July 6, 2016, after the city received 7.09” (180 mm) of rain in the twelve hours ending at 8 am July 6. Wuhan received over 560 mm (1.8 feet) of rain over the ten day period before yesterday's deluge, causing widespread damage and chaos. (Photo by Wang He/Getty Images)


Figure 5. Swath of total rainfall from Nepartak as predicted by the 06 UTC (2 am EDT) Thursday, July 7, 2016 run of the HWRF model. The model predicted widespread rains of 8 - 16" (light yellow colors) over much of Taiwan and Eastern China. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC.


Figure 6. Rainfall for the 10-day period ending on July 6, 2016 over China. Rainfall amounts in excess of 15.75" (400+ mm, dark blue color) fell over a large swath of China from Wuhan to just west of Shanghai. Image credit: National Meteorological Center of CMA.

Taiwan's recent typhoon history
Only one typhoon has hit Taiwan at Category 5 strength since accurate satellite records began in the 1970s: Super Typhoon Bilis, which intensified from a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds to a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds in the 30 hours before making landfall on the island on August 22, 2000. Bilis killed 14 people and did $134 million in damage to Taiwan. The island was hit by two major typhoons last year: Category 4 Typhoon Dujuan and Category 3 Typhoon Soudelor. Typhoon Dujuan made landfall on the island on September 28, 2015, with 140 mph winds, killing three, injuring 376, but causing less than $10 million in damage. Dujuan brought heavy rains to eastern China that caused $652 million in damage, but did not kill anybody there. On August 7, 2015, Typhoon Soudelor hit Taiwan as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Souledor killed eight, injured 420, and caused over $100 million in damage. At the peak of the storm, 4.85 million households lost electricity--the largest blackout on record in Taiwan due to a typhoon (previous record: 2.79 million customers blacked out by Typhoon Herb in 1996.) Taiping Mountain in eastern Taiwan's Yilan County saw the heaviest rains from the typhoon, with accumulations peaking at 1,334 mm (52.52".) Souledor brought heavy rains to eastern China that killed 26 people and caused $3.08 billion in damage. The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan has a list (in Chinese) of all the typhoons that have affected Taiwan.

Nepartak: Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2016
Nepartak is the third Category 5 storm on Earth so far in 2016. Its 900 mb minimum surface pressure makes it the strongest tropical cyclone of the year (by pressure), and its peak 175 mph winds are tied for the second strongest winds of the year. The other two Category 5 storms earlier this year were in the Southern Hemisphere: the Southwest Indian Ocean's Tropical Cyclone Fantala, which topped out with 175 mph winds and a 910 mb central pressure on April 17, and the Southeast Pacific's Tropical Cyclone Winston, which devastated Fiji on February 20 with sustained winds of 180 mph. Winston's lowest central pressure was 915 mb. Both storms were tied for the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed (by sustained winds) in their respective ocean basins. On average, Earth sees 4 - 5 Category 5 storms per year, with over 50% of these being typhoons in the Northwest Pacific. It is rare to have the first named storm of the year in an ocean basin make it to Category 5 strength. This has happened at least once before in the Northwest Pacific--in 1958, when Category 5 Super Typhoon Ophelia formed in January. The Atlantic has had two cases where the first named storm of the year made it to Cat 5--Hurricane Allen in 1980, and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (thanks go to WU member Tcwx2 for reminding me of Andrew).

Nepartak Links
Storm Chaser James Reynolds' Twitter feed is documenting Nepartak's landfall from Taitung, Taiwan, near where the eye is expected to make landfall.

Storm Chaser Josh Morgerman of iCyclone is also reporting from Taitung.

Brian McNoldy has a continuously updating radar loop of Nepartak.

Stunning visible animation of Nepartak from July 7, 2016, from NOAA/RAMMB/Colorado State.

Stunning visible animation of Nepartak from July 6, 2016, from NOAA/RAMMB/Colorado State.

The Himawari-8 Floater satellite loops have some impressive animations of Nepartak during daylight hours in the Western Pacific.

Eastern Taiwan observations from CWB. A Taiwanese station to follow is the Ludao on Green Island (which lies directly in the path of Nepartak). Thanks go to WU member Carnivorous for this link.


Figure 7. VIIRS visible satellite image of Hurricane Blas taken at 21:55 UTC (5:55 pm EDT) July 6, 2016. At the time, Blas was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific remains active
The Eastern Pacific, which got off to its second slowest start on record on July 2 when Tropical Storm Agatha formed, now has two more tropical cyclones. Hurricane Blas, which spun into life on July 3 about 700 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula, peaked as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds at 11 pm EDT July 6. Blas is headed west-northwest into a region with cool waters and more stable air, and will dissipate early next week without affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression 4-E, soon to become Tropical Storm Celia, is one Hawaii should keep an eye on, though Celia will have trouble with the wake of cold water left behind by Blas. And we could have Tropical Storm Darby next week: both the European and GFS models show an area of disturbed weather will develop several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico early next week, and will intensify into a tropical storm late next week. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this future disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

The Atlantic is asleep
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. Much of the tropical North Atlantic is dominated by a large area of dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert, which is common in early July.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Nasty band headed onshore Taiwan currently. Thanks Doc!
incredible Storm

02W/STY/N/C5


for ped airport temps at noon

Temperature:

83.8°F

Dewpoint:

67.3°F

Humidity:

57%

Wind:

E 2 mph

Humidex:

97
"The Atlantic has also had a case where the first named storm of the year made it to Cat 5--Hurricane Allen in 1980."
What about Hurricane Andrew in 1992? I believe that was a cat 5 and the first named storm of the season in the Atlantic Basin, correct me if I'm wrong.
Wow, 900MB...hey, that's me!
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters....
good read

thanks for update

Cat 3 Blas starting to spin down as it gets over sub par SSTs, but possessing lots of momentum and moisture in an annular form, should persist. To its east, proto-Celia struggling to consolidate, inhibited by the cool upwelled wake of Blas. To the west, the remnant whirl of Agatha is working with a midlevel low to pump up a moisture plume SW of the CA coast
Keeping my fingers crossed for everybody in the path of this potentially destructive storm. Thanks for the updated entry, Doc.
Thanks for your very interesting update Dr. Masters !
Lanyu (70 km south of Ludao) is currently the closest station to the eyewall of Nepartak. It's reporting gusts of 96 kt (110 mph) and a pressure of 981.5 hpa as of midnight local time. Link
Lanyu gust of 110mph.
Looks like that blob out in the Atlantic is cranking up a little
Quoting 11. Carnivorous:

Thanks for your very interesting update Dr. Masters !
Lanyu (70 km south of Ludao) is currently the closest station to the eyewall of Nepartak. It's reporting gusts of 96 kt (110 mph) as of midnight local time. Link


You got a shoutout for supplying that link!

*Thumbs up*
As Nepartak nears the central (N/S) mountain range of Taiwan, the lower, environmental steering flow may be shunted to the south a bit-resulting in at least a slight turn to the left with respect to forward direction along with a decrease in forward speed.

Or it may just plow straight on across the island, lol.

Some degradation of the S/SW eyewall-but still a powerful storm.
The Atlantic is asleep
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. Much of the tropical North Atlantic is dominated by a large area of dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert, which is common in early July.


dont wake it up it will be come vary mad if you do
Thanks for the update, thanks for the links too. Incredible picture from this Chinese stadium !
Here a video from Nepartak featuring another kind of stadium effect ;-) made using Himawari-8's rapid scan floater, but it ends at 0849 UTC (about 7 h ago) : it's the middle of the night there right now. If you've got a high bandwidth connection, you can go check it out around 0000-0200 UTC (in about 6-8 h from now), it will be dawn there. Link

Good looking T-Wave in the Central Atlantic..




Quoting 11. Carnivorous:

Thanks for your very interesting update Dr. Masters !
Lanyu (70 km south of Ludao) is currently the closest station to the eyewall of Nepartak. It's reporting gusts of 96 kt (110 mph) and a pressure of 981.5 hpa as of midnight local time. Link



Can someone post one of the webcams as a comment on here the way Caribboy does? None of them work for me :(

Isn't it nice that its eye went right over a buoy?? Shame they all don't happen to do that, especially where they don't do HH flights

Surely having it start to hit in the middle of the night has got to be the worst too.
Quoting 16. Tazmanian:

The Atlantic is asleep
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. Much of the tropical North Atlantic is dominated by a large area of dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert, which is common in early July.


dont wake it up it will be come vary mad if you do


Don't wake a sleeping giant. If you do, you might not like what you see.

The Atlantic is currently resting, which is very common for early July.


I always go back to the 2004 season, because it was such an active year for Florida (and personally affected my life).
2004 Named systems (1st named system wasn't until July 31).

Thanks for the update Mr. Masters!
Quoting 20. hydrus:

Good looking T-Wave in the Central Atlantic..







Yup. The large plume of dust is northeast of it too. Convection seems to be growing, maybe consolidating along the center of its axis. Worthy of blob-watching I guess. May see a SFC map soon with an "L" in that area. And, is it me or does the ITCZ seem a little farther along northwards climatologically? Interesting pattern it seems, too, with the B/A high and shallow Conus troughing.
Heat is still on here in Houston

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1000 am CDT Thursday Jul 7 2016



Discussion...
little change to the forecast for today. Another hot day on tap
with southerly winds - lighter than yesterday and plenty of
humidity. Low level jet has shifted further northwest and weakened. Heat
index readings of 102 to 106 should be common by late morning
through the afternoon hours. The southwest counties will probably
see some 106-107 degree readings around Palacios-Edna-Wharton-Bay
City and possibly Angleton. Will be a little shy of warranting a
heat advisory. In addition though warm readings over night 78-84
so only the slightest of relief there and 1 or 2 degrees probably
doesn't count much in the way of relief. Record high mins will
likely be set for iah surpassing a long standing record set in
1892 of 81/cll will probably tie the 1904 record at 80.
Cloud
cover should scatter out by early afternoon and seabreeze should
bring some relief by mid to late afternoon. Rain chances still
very low and even tomorrow still look very low with influence of
the 593-594dm ridging over the state this morning at 12z.
Here's another, more recent picture, you can see now the storm's structure is starting to suffer from land interaction and is a bit weakened compared to last night, or the day before there - although it doesn't look like it's about to give up. Rapid dissipation and weakening flags were on the last time I checked CIMSS-ADT's analysis (Link), but with these algorythms it can go intermittently on and off sometimes so I wouldn't want to jump to premature conclusions there. 1600 UTC - Hi-8 sat (Link) :
Quoting 21. mitthbevnuruodo:




Can someone post one of the webcams as a comment on here the way Caribboy does? None of them work for me :(

Isn't it nice that its eye went right over a buoy?? Shame they all don't happen to do that, especially where they don't do HH flights

Surely having it start to hit in the middle of the night has got to be the worst too.

You know it is dark over there. Here is the one on the bottom of this list(as you will see).
I wonder how Nepartak will effect TSMC (Semiconductor Fab)... The Earthquake they had before is rumored to have caused unexpected damage to their fabs which are causing yield issues on their 16nm FinFET node... I can only imagine that a Cat 5 typhoon won't help matters..


Upper Levels WV



Mid Levels WV
Quoting 27. PedleyCA:


You know it is dark over there. Here is the one on the bottom of this list(as you will see).


Thank you Ped! :D

Yeah, but so can see it later (if still running!?), and if on page 1, will be easy to find after work!
Quoting 7. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters....



Here's my forecast for today and the next 7 days, Ped:





The heat just continues=(. I hope relief comes soon.
Quoting 28. Doom2pro:

I wonder how Nepartak will effect TSMC (Semiconductor Fab)... The Earthquake they had before is rumored to have caused unexpected damage to their fabs which are causing yield issues on their 16nm FinFET node... I can only imagine that a Cat 5 typhoon won't help matters..


Yeah, welcome to a globalized world... Any large-scale disaster can have unwelcome or unexpected consequences in such a place. There have been many examples in the last decade, I'm thinking of the 2011 Thailand floods for instance (on Wikipedia) :
"(...) Disruptions to manufacturing supply chains affected regional automobile production and caused a global shortage of hard disk drives (...)"
Low shear environment. Broad convergence, if any to note, but some diffluence aloft. May see the moisture gyre pile up and tighten the convergence. May pooof, but looks interesting in the present. Nice winds graphic, stormpetrol.
Note to self: Be VERY careful when trying to find webcams for events like this...

Is getting close now...
Quoting 33. 999Ai2016:



Yeah, welcome to a globalized world... Any large-scale disaster can have unwelcome or unexpected consequences in such a place. There have been many examples in the last decade, I'm thinking of the 2011 Thailand floods for instance (on Wikipedia) :
"(...) Disruptions to manufacturing supply chains affected regional automobile production and caused a global shortage of hard disk drives (...)"

Yes. Westren Digitals Large HDD factory...
Quoting 32. birdsrock2016:



Here's my forecast for today and the next 7 days, Ped:





The heat just continues=(. I hope relief comes soon.


starting to crank it back up, Sun just came out here(10:59PDT)
Quoting 4. Tcwx2:

"The Atlantic has also had a case where the first named storm of the year made it to Cat 5--Hurricane Allen in 1980."
What about Hurricane Andrew in 1992? I believe that was a cat 5 and the first named storm of the season in the Atlantic Basin, correct me if I'm wrong.


Good point! I'll add this to the blog.

Dr. M.
WMO SG Taalas at UN conference : "Despite the end of El Nino, above average heat continues because of climate change."

Source : published July 6 by WMO (on Twitter)
Quoting 42. 999Ai2016:

WMO SG Taalas at UN conference : "Despite the end of El Nino, above average heat continues because of climate change."

who knew
Quoting 36. Articuno:

Note to self: Be VERY careful when trying to find webcams for events like this...

As I'm not very experienced with that specific kind of www activity, may I enquire why?
The only things that would seriously disquiet me are forbidden even on 4Chan.
Thanks!!!
Quoting 41. JeffMasters:



Good point! I'll add this to the blog.

Dr. M.

Tracking these monsters are amazing and awe inspiring. I personally, am thankful we've not had that opportunity in our basins, to track a category five in many years. Joaquin was bad enough, and steering was a close call to being much worse for the East Coast. I hope Taiwan handles this as well as many here think they will, including Dr. Masters; who has commented on their preparedness. So that gives me hope, just some reports out of Taiwan are saying people aren't really taking it as serious as we'd expect. Icyclone report on TWC earlier today suggested as much. Find out soon.
Quoting 39. Gearsts:

winter storm
Quoting 43. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

who knew


Most of the Republicans in congress, but they are still refusing to raise their hands nor allow discussion on in their states controlled house and senate too.
looks like the end will be worse than the beginning



underestimation may prove fatal but they do have good preps we shall see then hear soon
Tropical Wave is likely developing a surface low pressure center along its wave axis as it continues to trek westward underneath ideal conditions for intensification. ASCAT imagery posted earlier in the blog shows a closing off surface low present. Just needs to work on the eastern side of the circulation a bit before it can be named and plus sustain convection.
138 knot (159 mph) gust on Lanyu, 88 kt (101 mph) sustained winds. Pressure down to 963 hpa.
Quoting 18. Patrap:



So far it's been quite resilient, despite mountains and land interaction eroding the structure, plus the overall weakening trend that's confirmed by ADT (Link).
I worry that it could re-intensify on the other side of the island, but I wouldn't bet on it.

This is close to 160mph gust. Carnivorous beat me to it.....
Still very impressive in the Dvorak.

Very good update on Nepartak. Thanks, doc.



How to move on from disaster risk - literally
by Sohara Mehroze Shachi | UNDP, Thursday, 7 July 2016 10:09 GMT
When threats loom, portable houses you can break down quickly, carry away and reassemble later offer a way to cut losses ....

Trump should think of rebuilding his properties with those portable houses, I guess ;-)
Water world: rising tides close in on Trump, the climate change denier
Climate change has barely registered as a 2016 campaign issue, but in Florida, the state which usually decides the presidential election, the waters are lapping at the doors of Donald Trump%u2019s real estate empire
The Guardian, Wednesday 6 July 2016 12.00 BST
Quoting 54. PedleyCA:


This is close to 160mph gust.


I would never see that type of wind gust here on Cape Cod, MA. Thank God for my location regarding hurricanes, we have been hit directly by one hurricane since 1991.
Quoting 55. Patrap:

Still very impressive in the Dvorak.


they gonna get a beating more so on the backside of the storm it appears as per presentation of images
Hurricane Blas weakening rapidly now as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear values. The tropical Atlantic will wake up soon. CV season is almost upon us.
Quoting 56. barbamz:

Very good update on Nepartak. Thanks, doc. (...) (...) (...)
Water world: rising tides close in on Trump, the climate change denier
Climate change has barely registered as a 2016 campaign issue, but in Florida, the state which usually decides the presidential election, the waters are lapping at the doors of Donald Trump%u2019s real estate empire
The Guardian, Wednesday 6 July 2016 12.00 BST

Do you know that it links to the Guardian's natural disasters webpage, a really apocalyptic sight if you ask me :-) Don't miss the environmental photographs of the year : Link
Thanks for the links, by the way.

Near Chennai, India.
Tropical Wave nearing 40W and 10N showing signs of organization. Small presence of vorticity at the surface, with the main vorticity present at 700mb.
The Euro brings the T.S back but has it sliding east of N.C at the 144 hour mark.
Quoting 26. 999Ai2016:

So, 999, who is going to win the match of European championship (semi-final) which is going to start in Marseille in a few minutes: Your France or my Germany? I'm off now to watch it with friends :-)
For all who won't like to watch soccer: Here is a good HD webcam to watch current weather and sunset in hot Marseille ... Link

And here the dropping pressure of Lanyu island, off the coast of Taiwan (best wishes!):

Source.
Quoting 60. 999Ai2016:


Do you know that it links to the Guardian's natural disasters webpage ...

Yes, I know. I visit it every day and have even subscribed to the Guardian a couple of days ago in order to support good old journalism.
BBL, watching German goals against France now (at least I hope :-)

Edit: Ah, and I fixed the link of the Trump-article in post #56. Thanks, 999.
Just noting, for future reference over the next 24-48 hours, that I cannot get a page open to any of the Chinese Met Office links on the internet (their office is called the CMO) to see if we can link to their doppler sites for radar coverage as the typhoon approaches them; they do have doppler weather radar in China but I do not know if they post images online (or if their sites are just temporarily down):

https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/OSY/Meetings/E T-SBO_Workshop_Radar_Data_Ex/SBO-WxR_Exchange_3.1. 2_RAII_LiBai.pdf


We have planned to build 216 New Generation Doppler Weather Radars around China, which
is called CINRAD (China New Generation Weather Radar). The first CINRAD was built in Hefei,
Anhui Province, in 1999. By the end of 2012, 178 radars have been built, of which 144s have been
put into operation and the rest 34s are in the progress of deployment



Quoting 64. barbamz:


Yes, I know. I visit it every day and have even subscribed to the Guardian a couple of days ago in order to support good old journalism.
BBL, watching German goals against France now (at least I hope :-)

Indeed.
I think we of the wooden shoes agree. This time. And Sunday ;)
Quoting 63. barbamz:


So, 999, who is going to win the match of European championship (semi-final) which is going to start in Marseille in a few minutes: Your France or my Germany? I'm off now to watch it with friends :-)
For all who won't like to watch soccer: Here is a good HD webcam to watch current weather and sunset in hot Marseille ... Link

And here the dropping pressure of Lanyu island, off the coast of Taiwan (best wishes!):

Source.

Honestly, I'm used to bet against France since the last decade has been really bad for the national team, but this time... I really don't know. There are key players missing on the German side, they seem to have lost a bit of efficiency so far in this championship, and on the French side some players really sparkled in the last matches so personally I would put the odds close to 50-50. And I choose to side for France, as it's been a long time since I last did, and I've been a little disappointed at Germany's performance so far in the Euro Champ. 2016. If Schurrle is selected, maybe he can make a difference. We'll see, the German soccer team has been the best in the world in the last years you know. I'll be off to watch too. What's your pick ? Which team do you think is gonna go to the finals ?

Quoting 69. 999Ai2016:


Honestly, I'm used to bet against France since the last decade has been really bad for the national team, but this time... I really don't know. There are key players missing on the German side, they seem to have lost a bit of efficiency so far in this championship, and on the French side some players really sparkled in the last matches so personally I would put the odds close to 50-50. And I choose to side for France, as it's been a long time since I last did, and I've been a little disappointed at Germany's performance so far in the Euro Champ. 2016. If Schurrle is selected, maybe he can make a difference. We'll see, the German soccer team has been the best in the world in the last years you know. I'll be off to watch too. What's your pick ? Which team do you think is gonna go to the finals ?
I love Andrey Schurle, I felt like he will win the world championship for Germany the last time and he did, with a brilliant pass to a guy called Goetze or something like that. Definitely my favorite German player.
Bilis may have been a cat 5 landfall in Taiwan in 2000, but likethe two major typhoons that hit the island last year, Bilis wasn't catastrophic for the island. The 2006 Bilis hit Taiwan and China as a much weaker tropical storm, but was far more destructive due to it's larger size and very heavy rains over Taiwan and mainland China. It was even worse than Saomai later that year.

Also, before the 1970's, Super Typhoon Joan in 1959 apparently hit Taiwan with 185 mph winds, so that was a category 5 landfall as well:

Nonetheless, due to the warm water just offshore Taiwan, Nepartak could also make a category 5 landfall. But it could weaken to a strong 4 just before landfall as well.
tropical wave at 38W continues to organise. very low shear enviroment. Ascat still shows an open system .
Green island is in the eyewall of Nepartak right now, perhaps heading into the eye.

Orchid Island is going through the southern eyewall.


Hmm, I'm a little surprised that the Euro brought it back.
What is the current intensity of Nepartak ? Is still a Cat. 5 or no ?

Quoting 64. barbamz:


Yes, I know. I visit it every day and have even subscribed to the Guardian a couple of days ago in order to support good old journalism.
BBL, watching German goals against France now (at least I hope :-)

Edit: Ah, and I fixed the link of the Trump-article in post #56. Thanks, 999.
Hi Barbara, I have been meaning to ask you who do you wish to become the US president in November. Are you rooting for Clinton or Trump? Each of those candidates have their quirks, but I (as a neighbor of Germany from Czech republic) would like to hear your opinion. Thanks for your answer to this non weather related topic.
Not going to be a category five landfall over mainland Taiwan from JMA advisory.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEPARTAK (T201601)
3:00 AM JST July 8 2016
==========================
About 270 KM South Southwest Of Yonaguni Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nepartak (930 hPa) located at 22.4N 121.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 24.0N 119.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Taiwan Strait
48 HRS: 26.0N 117.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland South China
72 HRS: 27.8N 116.6E - Tropical Depression Overland Central China
Quoting 72. stoormfury:

tropical wave at 38W continues to organise. very low shear enviroment. Ascat still shows an open system .


A tad open on the eastern side
Looks like landfall is getting close. It seems like an hour or two away.
wish south florida had a mountain range to protect itself. good luck everyone this atlantic season
China Meteorological Administration

** WTPQ20 BABJ 071800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY NEPARTAK 1601 (1601) INITIAL TIME 071800 UTC
00HR 22.3N 121.9E 915HPA 60M/S
30KTS WINDS 320KM NORTHEAST

still category five from China Meteorological Administration. (about 120 knots, if they use 10 min avg. Don't think they do though)

Hong Kong Observatory

At 18:00 PM UTC, Super Typhoon Nepartak with central pressure of 910 was centered within 30 NM of 22.3N 121.8E and is forecast to move northwest at about 9 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the center is estimated to be 115 knots.

----------------
just below category five from Hong Kong Observatory
Still 105 knots from Taiwan warning center, which is a category five intensity.

I thought they did hourly advisories at this time for a typhoon so close to them, but it's only every three hours.
Here's an oldie but goodie. Occasionally, a good chart to review, and since we're pondering Nepartak's interaction with the terrain as it approaches landfall. It shows the differences in the layers in millibars and feet.


We are just getting started.
1. For meteorologists.
2. 6 hour summary and analysis.
Super typhoon 02w (Nepartak), located approximately 196 nm south-
southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, has tracked west-northwestward at 08
knots over the past six hours. The current position is based, with
high confidence, on satellite eye fixes from pgtw and rjtd and
recent radar imagery from Taiwan. The intensity of 140 knots is
consistent with subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from
multiple reporting agencies and with recent objective satellite
intensity consensus data. Sty 02w appears to have weakened slightly
over the past six hours, with cooling eye temperatures evident
in infrared satellite data. The system continues to track toward
south central Taiwan under the influence of a deep-layered
subtropical steering ridge.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. No change to the forecast philosophy since the previous
prognostic reasoning message.
B. Sty 02w will continue tracking generally west-northwestward
along the periphery of the subtropical ridge to the northeast until
it makes landfall in south central Taiwan around tau 12. Continued
slow weakening is expected in the near-term as the western portion
of the storm circulation begins to interact with land, but the
system will remain a very intense typhoon or super typhoon until the
storm center makes landfall. Sty 02w will weaken considerably as it
crosses the high terrain of Taiwan, but it is expected to reorganize
and maintain tropical storm or minimal typhoon intensity as it
crosses the Taiwan Strait. By tau 36, sty 02w will move into
southeastern China, and will dissipate by tau 72. Numerical model
guidance is in good agreement through the forecast period, lending
high confidence to the jtwc track forecast.

Highest elevation there about 13,000 feet, but north of landfall area.
Quoting 62. washingtonian115:

The Euro brings the T.S back but has it sliding east of N.C at the 144 hour mark.

Bring it on!
Winds sustained at 96 mph in Cheng-Kung. A couple other Taiwan stations showing sustained winds of 82 mph.
Quoting 85. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




For that island Ludao, within the eye, it states on web search that island is primarily prisons and penal colonies.

Hmm..
James Reynolds ‏@EarthUncutTV
LIVE on #Periscope: Super typhoon Nepartak absolute MAYHEM!! https://www.periscope.tv/w/1DXGyZDVavbJM
Quoting 93. HadesGodWyvern:



For that island Ludao, within the eye, it states on web search that island is primarily prisons and penal colonies.

Hmm..
here is a picture

Quoting 93. HadesGodWyvern:



For that island Ludao, within the eye, it states on web search that island is primarily prisons and penal colonies.

Hmm..
here is latest

Quoting 93. HadesGodWyvern:



For that island Ludao, within the eye, it states on web search that island is primarily prisons and penal colonies.

Hmm..


They are no longer reporting any weather data.
Quoting 94. Xandra:

James Reynolds ‏@EarthUncutTV
LIVE on #Periscope: Super typhoon Nepartak absolute MAYHEM!! https://www.periscope.tv/w/1DXGyZDVavbJM


Taitung county, huh


Quoting 96. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

here is latest


Looks like beells left of track jog is taking place ... may be a good thing or a bad thing for Taitung, depending on whether the worst part of the eyewall is on that side at landfall.....
Quoting 89. moonlightcowboy:

Highest elevation there about 13,000 feet, but north of landfall area.


i bet vary hvy snow is falling on them 13000ft mts since there colder air up there
Looks like it has moved out in time. Surprised as well. Still skeptical. We'll see if we have other model support in the next day or two.

Quoting 74. Tcwx2:


Hmm, I'm a little surprised that the Euro brought it back.
Quoting 102. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks like it has moved out in time. Surprised as well. Still skeptical. We'll see if we have other model support in the next day or two.




Not very strong, only 1015mb, but it is closed, which is the key. TW in the Central Atlantic Ocean is showing signs of organization.
Quoting 70. NoobDave:


I love Andrey Schurle, I felt like he will win the world championship for Germany the last time and he did, with a brilliant pass to a guy called Goetze or something like that. Definitely my favorite German player.


Same here, Schurrle plays in a smart and funny way; I love to see him play, even if he's not one of the greatest players around. Have you seen ? France won 2-0 against Germany, although it wasn't a very beautiful game to watch, unfortunately :-/. I think Boateng's injury was the turning point for Germany, which has been unable to convert most of the times in this tournament. Well, France almost won the championship now. It's crazy around, the party is really noisy everywhere in the city I can hear it all.
What's the surge potential like in Taitung county?

Winds may be down below cat 5, but the surge potential is unlikely to fall much in the next 3 hours...
very close
nearing landfall

Quoting 101. Tazmanian:



i bet vary hvy snow is falling on them 13000ft mts since there colder air up there


LoL, Taz. You're funny. You know it's their warm tropical season in Taiwan. No snow, but that was a good joke. 😜 Let's hope the damage and destruction is not bad with the awfully strong storm hitting them right now. How've you been, bud? And do you think the hurricane season will be bad in the Atlantic this year?
Taiwan's a bad place to be right now (CIRA/RAMMB. Himawari 8, airmass - 2020 UTC).
I can't imagine how heavy the rain must be there. The typhoon is keeping a good structure, it will probably survive the crossing of Taiwan in better shape than anticipated by some models I guess. It's almost dawn there, by the way.
.
Quoting 108. moonlightcowboy:



LoL, Taz. You're funny. You know it's their warm tropical season in Taiwan. No snow, but that was a good joke. %uD83D%uDE1C Let's hope the damage and destruction is not bad with the awfully strong storm hitting them right now. How've you been, bud? And do you think the hurricane season will be bad in the Atlantic this year?
Hey, MLC, haven't seen you in the blog for a while. How's it hangin'?
Quoting 106. BahaHurican:

What's the surge potential like in Taitung county?

Winds may be down below cat 5, but the surge potential is unlikely to fall much in the next 3 hours...
sure there has too be some surge but I think run off from mountains will be the big problem

Quoting 111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

sure there has too be some surge but I think run off from mountains will be the big problem




Yup, Keep, the flooding. Most of the population is on the west side of the island; maybe fatalities will be low, hopefully.

Baha, friend. Hello. I'm all good, thanks. Blob watching in the cAtl, and watching Nepartak unfold. Dreadful. Hope all is well down in paradise. 👍🏻😎
Quoting 109. 999Ai2016:

Taiwan's a bad place to be right now (Himawari 8, airmass - 2020 UTC).
I can't imagine how heavy the rain must be there.

Took a look at a topographic map, and it seems the surge potential is not that high.... especially if the eye passes over or to the north of the town. Is there a place in the ATL other than Haiti and Cuba Oriente where a storm would encounter such mountainous terrain at the coast?

Quoting 105. 999Ai2016:


Same here, Schurrle plays in a smart and funny way; I love to see him play, even if he's not one of the greatest players around. Have you seen ? France won 2-0 against Germany, although it wasn't a very beautiful game to watch, unfortunately :-/. I think Boateng's injury was the turning point for Germany, which has been unable to convert most of the times in this tournament. Well, France almost won the championship now. It's crazy around, the party is really noisy everywhere in the city I can hear it all.
The France managed to win against Germany, to be honest I had a feeling that France will win. The final will be France vs Portugal, and I also believe that France will win. Sure Portugal has Ronaldo, but one man won t win you the championship. That being said I just may end up rooting for the underdog.
Quoting 106. BahaHurican:

What's the surge potential like in Taitung county?

Winds may be down below cat 5, but the surge potential is unlikely to fall much in the next 3 hours...


no RSMC really mention storm surge information in the western pacific.

IF this had PAGASA's signal #4 alert, PAGASA current intensity status they would warn people, it would be around 2-3 meters.
James Reynolds ‏@EarthUncutTV LIVE on #Periscope: Super typhoon Nepartak - hiding in a stair well https://www.periscope.tv/EarthUncutTV/1BRKjjnWvev Kw
Quoting 115. HadesGodWyvern:



no RSMC really mention storm surge information in the western pacific.

IF this had PAGASA's signal #4 alert, PAGASA current intensity status they would warn people, it would be around 2-3 meters.
Hmm... a lot better than the 18 - 24 ft potential in many parts of the Bahamas....
118. Ylee
Eye nearing landfall, but becoming deformed
Quoting 119. Adam2001:

Eye nearing landfall, but becoming deformed



Based on TWC satellite I just saw, the eye of the system looks onshore.
Will be hard to judge landfall with a Smooshed Eye
@Sfloridacat5- possible but I'm not sure...
124. VR46L
Quoting 114. NoobDave:


The France managed to win against Germany, to be honest I had a feeling that France will win. The final will be France vs Portugal, and I also believe that France will win. Sure Portugal has Ronaldo, but one man won t win you the championship. That being said I just may end up rooting for the underdog.



Greizman was amazing ... I think and hope France will win it , and Maybe Giroud will come back to Arsenal full of confidence :)

BLAS is heading into a wall of trouble

Quoting 108. moonlightcowboy:



LoL, Taz. You're funny. You know it's their warm tropical season in Taiwan. No snow, but that was a good joke. 😜 Let's hope the damage and destruction is not bad with the awfully strong storm hitting them right now. How've you been, bud? And do you think the hurricane season will be bad in the Atlantic this year?


Been doing well am watching the cam noted back there every one Is ridding mother bike too get around all so a bit windy there looks like there in the eye or some in


Rain for SLU, Dust for me.



Duuuuust.
96L soon closed system 9N 40 W
Quoting 118. Ylee:




A lot of traffic in New Taipei City, enjoying their day off work and classes.
129. VR46L
Quoting 121. PedleyCA:

Will be hard to judge landfall with a Smooshed Eye


Reckon its happening now


Quoting 79. bigwes6844:

Looks like landfall is getting close. It seems like an hour or two away.


Yep, it was a good estimate : looks like landfall now.


Neutral
Those periskope videos from James Reynolds which were posted earlier, are really scary! Poor people who are staying in less resilient houses.


Sun is up over landfalling Nepartak.

Quoting 132. barbamz:

Those periskope videos from James Reynolds which were posted earlier, are really scary! Poor people who are staying in less resilient houses.


Sun is up over landfalling Nepartak.





Was actually quite surprised and pleased to see that electric was maintained. Now I for one, couldnt have ridden the elevator like the security guard did ...
Quoting 127. stoormfury:

96L soon closed system 9N 40 W


nhc not even paying attention to it
Looks like the worst is over in Taitung:
James Reynolds@EarthUncutTV 2 Min.Vor 2 Minuten
Things starting to ease off gradually but still extremely strong wind #typhoon #Nepartak #Taiwan


James Reynolds @EarthUncutTV 2 Min.vor 2 Minuten
Looks like carnage in the streets out there, vehicles thrown around super #typhoon #Nepartak #Taitung #Taiwan

Twitterfeed.

Quoting 76. NoobDave:
Hi Barbara, I have been meaning to ask you who do you wish to become the US president in November.

Not that it matters what I think. Let's say I'm very sorry to see Obama leaving. Guess we should prepare for very troubled waters in the near future, not only in the US but in Europe too with impending Brexit, and this will affect environmental and climate issues as well.

Kudos to the French for winning tonight's European soccer match! Germans were better though, 999 :-P
Quoting 134. Hurricanes101:


nhc not even paying attention to it


NHC should bring out the yellow crayon at 8 for the wave in the CAtl
Golly, that's a huge storm. Outer bands will be affecting China before it entirely clears Taiwan at this rate.

Perhaps I am misremembering, but it seemed like Taiwan did a good job of ripping Souledor apart. Not seeing that so much with this storm, at least not yet. Many, many differences between the two, I realize, but if I were living opposite Taiwan in China, I think I'd be a little disappointed right now that Taiwan is not acting as a more effective shield...so far.

141. MahFL
Still a lot of green on the funktop image, does not look like it weakened a lot :

Quoting 135. barbamz:

Looks like the worst is over in Taitung:
James Reynolds@EarthUncutTV 2 Min.Vor 2 Minuten
Things starting to ease off gradually but still extremely strong wind #typhoon #Nepartak #Taiwan


James Reynolds @EarthUncutTV 2 Min.vor 2 Minuten
Looks like carnage in the streets out there, vehicles thrown around super #typhoon #Nepartak #Taitung #Taiwan

Twitterfeed.


Not that it matters what I think. Let's say I'm very sorry to see Obama leaving. Guess we should prepare for very troubled waters in the near future, not only in the US but in Europe too with impending Brexit, and this will affect environmental and climate issues as well.

Kudos to the French for winning tonight's European soccer match! Germans were bettter though, 999 :-P



Looks like an EF-2 tornado, moving and flipping cars. People that chase these are a wee bit crazy.
The African Wave on the 18z run for July 17th was a tad stronger than the 12z, let's see if that trend continues.


ICRT News ‏@ICRTNews 10 Min.Vor 10 Minuten
Super Typhoon Nepartak made landfall in Taitung's Tai-Ma-Li Township at 5:50 this morning.

Good night from Germany. Thoughts to Taiwan!
There are also some signals of some slight upward motion around the 17th in that area, with most still being in the Eastern Pacific, so we will see.
146. DDR
Hey caribboy,I hope you get some rain from the tropical wave @ 40w.Rain down here seems to have returned to normal after a couple months above average.
...a good jog back to the southwest away from the higher terrain? Traversing the southernmost narrower part of the island. Should keep or regain some steam as it heads toward the mainland.

SST in the gulf are more than sufficient
As enjoyable as the Pacific storm tracking has been and continues to be (and it's far from done in the East Pac), I've also been looking to when we may start to get action in the Atlantic. I don't think we're going to see any noteworthy homegrown storms over the next couple weeks. Everything looks pretty normal to me though. This lull we're in is of course very typical. From some of the long range model forecasts and general intuition I'd imagine right around the last couple days of this month and certainly into August is when we'll start seeing the crayons come out much farther east. All factors weighted in, I'm still happy with my forecast of a near average season. I think it will feel like a more "traditional" season than the past few, steadily ramping up to the climatological peak.
Near average season???? An average season is 11-6-3. I hardly think that we would "only" get 7-5-3 for the remainder of the season. No way that is happening. I would go with 17 to 19 named storms 8 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 4 major hurricanes by the time it's all set and done.
Quoting 149. MAweatherboy1:

As enjoyable as the Pacific storm tracking has been and continues to be (and it's far from done in the East Pac), I've also been looking to when we may start to get action in the Atlantic. I don't think we're going to see any noteworthy homegrown storms over the next couple weeks. Everything looks pretty normal to me though. This lull we're in is of course very typical. From some of the long range model forecasts and general intuition I'd imagine right around the last couple days of this month and certainly into August is when we'll start seeing the crayons come out much farther east. All factors weighted in, I'm still happy with my forecast of a near average season. I think it will feel like a more "traditional" season than the past few, steadily ramping up to the climatological peak.
151. Tcwx2
Very well said my friend!
Quoting 149. MAweatherboy1:

As enjoyable as the Pacific storm tracking has been and continues to be (and it's far from done in the East Pac), I've also been looking to when we may start to get action in the Atlantic. I don't think we're going to see any noteworthy homegrown storms over the next couple weeks. Everything looks pretty normal to me though. This lull we're in is of course very typical. From some of the long range model forecasts and general intuition I'd imagine right around the last couple days of this month and certainly into August is when we'll start seeing the crayons come out much farther east. All factors weighted in, I'm still happy with my forecast of a near average season. I think it will feel like a more "traditional" season than the past few, steadily ramping up to the climatological peak.
Yes there is another place besides those two locations. Mexico's gulf coast from Tuxpan down to the city of Veracruz where you have the Sierra Madre Oriental. Some of that features volcanic peaks that rise well over 10,000 feet in elevation. And back in 2010, category 3 Hurricane Karl made landfall in that area.
Quoting 113. BahaHurican:

Took a look at a topographic map, and it seems the surge potential is not that high.... especially if the eye passes over or to the north of the town. Is there a place in the ATL other than Haiti and Cuba Oriente where a storm would encounter such mountainous terrain at the coast?
153. IDTH

I would venture to guess that 18-20 named storms, 10-11 hurricanes and 3-5 Major hurricanes.
Quoting 152. lobdelse81:

Yes there is another place besides those two locations. Mexico's gulf coast from Tuxpan down to the city of Veracruz where you have the Sierra Madre Oriental. Some of that features volcanic peaks that rise well over 10,000 feet in elevation. And back in 2010, category 3 Hurricane Karl made landfall in that area.

Aha. Forgot about those mountains. There's a good - sized volcano in that area, iirc.
A topographic map of Taiwan. Click map to expand.



Land interaction ? Please ? Can you do better than that ? CIRA/RAMMB. Himawari-8 rapid scan floater, until 2339 UTC :

There's still convection building up on several sides and good symmetry maintained, not good... These annular storms are very resilient, that's true.
Edit : names matter. It's not a brilliant idea to name a storm after a famous warrior. Don't be surprised if it puts up a good fight afterwards.
In another few hours (or less) Nepartak's center may be back over open water.

A convo between Erick Black and Michael V about the MJO moving into the Atlantic.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 7h7 hours ago
@MJVentrice and the MJO should pass Atlantic-- TC chances???

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 7h7 hours ago
@EricBlake12 Pretty much a snooze-fest though 10% risk for a mid-latitude precursor type event.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 7h7 hours ago
@MJVentrice I haven't given up on 2nd cckw on more favorable side of MJO but chances seem-- ummm low lol

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 7h7 hours ago
@EricBlake12 Yeah that second CCKW doesn't look all that impressive at the moment. Moreso over the East Pac than Atl.
on here TD 4E looks vary good



but on here it looks like TD 4E has dissipated or got in eat in up so its hard too tell what too make of this



Quoting 157. 999Ai2016:

Land interaction ? Please ? Can you do better than that ? Himawari-8 rapid scan floater, until 2339 UTC :

There's still convection building up on several sides and good symmetry maintained, not good... These annular storms are very resilient, that's true.



Very nice loop. You can literally see the mountainous disruption through the spine of the island, albeit short-lived perhaps. Thanks for posting.
Quoting 161. moonlightcowboy:



Very nice loop. You can literally see the mountainous disruption, albeit short-lived perhaps. Thanks for posting.


Okay, whats going to happen when it pops over the other side of the island? Will is start to reform and head north east or will it continue going west to south west?
Quoting 162. justmehouston:


Okay, whats going to happen when it pops over the other side of the island? Will is start to reform and head north east or will it continue going west to south west?

WDPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 20//RMKS//
(...)
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST TAIWAN AROUND TAU 06. IN THE NEAR TERM, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, BUT STY 02W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY AT LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) GETS DISRUPTED BY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE OF EASTERN TAIWAN. THE LLCC MAY BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE IN A PERPENDICULAR DIRECTION. SOME REORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS STY 02W CROSSES THE TAIWAN STRAIT. BY TAU 36, STY 02W WILL HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
JTWC Link (if it fails to load the first time or shows an error text, wait, reload or click on one of the links there and it should work)
Quoting 162. justmehouston:



Okay, whats going to happen when it pops over the other side of the island? Will is start to reform and head north east or will it continue going west to south west?


I'd ask HadesGodWyvern; has always seemed to be the specialist in that hemisphere. My guess is that land interaction slightly altered its path, not steering conditions, and that it will resume some semblance again of earlier projections despite the apparent jog of the center to the southwest. I'm just not sure. Too, much will depend on its ability to restrengthen given proximity to land on each side once it re-enters waters. SST's, forward motion, proximity to atmospheric weakness, etc. Several factors. Yield to Hades though; he'll have much better thoughts.
Quoting 161. moonlightcowboy:



Very nice loop. You can literally see the mountainous disruption through the spine of the island, albeit short-lived perhaps. Thanks for posting.


Yeah it is amazing seeing the clouds just slam against the higher mountains as if it is a dam against the wind.
Oh well...
Quoting 166. Gearsts:

Oh well...

Maybe.Maybe not.
Quoting 157. 999Ai2016:

Land interaction ? Please ? Can you do better than that ? Himawari-8 rapid scan floater, until 2339 UTC :

There's still convection building up on several sides and good symmetry maintained, not good... These annular storms are very resilient, that's true.
Edit : names matter. It's not a brilliant idea to name a storm after a famous warrior. Don't be surprised if it puts up a good fight afterwards.

The eye appeared briefly on satellite while over Taiwan but then a thunderstorm covered it up again. I believe it would be at most a category 4 when it makes landfall in China.
Quoting 148. washingtonian115:

SST in the gulf are more than sufficient



True, but the UL Winds also have to be just right or nothing will form. My gut feeling is that things will start to pick up toward the end of this month or early August. But of course I could be wrong. Its a wait and see game for sure.
am starting too think that TD 4E may even open up too a wave soon

08/0000 UTC 12.4N 111.6W T1.0/1.5 04E -- East Pacific
The land interaction is not doing much to Nepartak. Could be the brown ocean effect which helped tropical storm Bill last year, the fact that it is annular or a combination of both.
Quoting 160. Tazmanian:

on here TD 4E looks vary good



but on here it looks like TD 4E has dissipated or got in eat in up so its hard too tell what too make of this





Both tell the same tale. Four-E is well organized structurally, with a classic S-shaped convective pattern, but its broad structure and ill-defined center are precluding intensification right now. We should see more substantial development beginning tomorrow night or Saturday. We should be dealing with a major hurricane by upcoming midweek.
Quoting 173. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Both tell the same tale. Four-E is well organized structurally, with a classic S-shaped convective pattern, but its broad structure and ill-defined center are precluding intensification right now. We should see more substantial development beginning tomorrow night or Saturday. We should be dealing with a major hurricane by upcoming midweek.



TD 4E may even open up be for that can happen so whats see if it can last tonight and see what it looks like in the AM
Quoting 169. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


The eye appeared briefly on satellite while over Taiwan but then a thunderstorm covered it up again. I believe it would be at most a category 4 when it makes landfall in China.

Certainly it was deflected SW, which may mean faster re-entry of the eye into open waters.... if nothing else one hopes the wobble results in less rain for the Wuhan area...,
Quoting 168. hurricanefishfla:

Maybe.Maybe not.
Nothing season is dead.
Quoting 175. BahaHurican:

Certainly it was deflected SW, which may mean faster re-entry of the eye into open waters.... if nothing else one hopes the wobble results in less rain for the Wuhan area...,

How fast is Nepartak moving? It seems to be pretty close to leaving Taiwan. There is a window for intensifying in the strait still, seeing how organized it still is.
Quoting 176. Patrap:



Can you slow down the gif and repost?
181. MahFL
Quoting 162. justmehouston:



Okay, whats going to happen when it pops over the other side of the island? Will is start to reform and head north east or will it continue going west to south west?


You mean NW right ? NE would be back over Taiwan.
Back offshore.

184. beell
Quoting 164. moonlightcowboy:



I'd ask HadesGodWyvern; has always seemed to be the specialist in that hemisphere. My guess is that land interaction slightly altered its path, not steering conditions, and that it will resume some semblance again of earlier projections despite the apparent jog of the center to the southwest. I'm just not sure. Too, much will depend on its ability to restrengthen given proximity to land on each side once it re-enters waters. SST's, forward motion, proximity to atmospheric weakness, etc. Several factors. Yield to Hades though; he'll have much better thoughts.


The mountain barrier warped the low level environmental steering (pushing it south). Nepartak may even be slightly decoupled-with the mid-level circ to the north. It may reform from the bottom up in the low levels (most likely?), or reform from the top down farther north.

ADDED: And much deference and respect to Hades also!

Don't know. Not enough observational experience!

Oh yeah...Happy and safe Season to you and yours, mlc!
Quoting 159. washingtonian115:

A convo between Erick Black and Michael V about the MJO moving into the Atlantic.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 7h7 hours ago
@MJVentrice and the MJO should pass Atlantic-- TC chances???

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 7h7 hours ago
@EricBlake12 Pretty much a snooze-fest though 10% risk for a mid-latitude precursor type event.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 7h7 hours ago
@MJVentrice I haven't given up on 2nd cckw on more favorable side of MJO but chances seem-- ummm low lol

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 7h7 hours ago
@EricBlake12 Yeah that second CCKW doesn't look all that impressive at the moment. Moreso over the East Pac than Atl.This season looking very quiet been like this last few years.

We just got drilled about 15 minutes ago. Quite the gust front.

.. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 945 PM EDT
for Florence and central Darlington counties...

At 859 PM EDT... a gust front from a severe thunderstorm was located
along a line extending from near Quinby to near Florence to near
Timmonsville... moving east at 45 mph.

Hazard... 60 mph wind gusts.

Source... radar indicated.

Impact... expect damage to roofs... siding... and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Florence... Hartsville... Lake City... Darlington... Timmonsville...
Pamplico... Lamar... Quinby... New Hope... Effingham... Kellytown...
Florence Darlington technical College main Campus...
North Hartsville... Evergreen... Friendfield... Darlington raceway...
Floyd... Mars Bluff... CLyde and Auburn.
Quoting 183. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Back offshore.



Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe I see an eye albeit cloud filled.
While there is some rotation associated with the tilting gyre of the twave nearing 40w, moisture is primarily associated with being embedded in the ITCZ. There's no lower convergence and little vorticity. Upper diffluence is being aided by upper level shearing associated with the tutt farther north. Without some some persistent lift at the surface, it probably won't have a chance to get anything going. Dry air, subsidence out ahead and nwest of it could likely be the inhibitors. Still interesting though. If it did manage to get something going it's far enough north to feel the coriolis effect. We'll see what it does through the night, but not expecting too much, especially since there's no model support.

Hope Taiwan fares well through Nepartak. Y'all have a good one. 😎

Last recorded radar frame before it went dark.



Quoting 180. Patrap:



that map be longs in the fire place

Quoting 184. beell:



The mountain barrier warped the low level environmental steering (pushing it south). Nepartak may even be slightly decoupled-with the mid-level circ to the north. It may reform from the bottom up in the low levels (most likely?), or reform from the top down farther north.

Don't know. Not enough observational experience!

Oh yeah...Happy and safe Season to you and yours, mlc!


Beell, buddy. Good explanation; sounds right. Hope you're well, look forward to your analysis this season. I'll be lurking mostly; lots of wise folks here like yourself, so I just watch and read these days. But I can say this--not liking the pattern developing, afraid we're in for some hurt down the line. Take care. 👍🏻😎
Quoting 181. MahFL:



You mean NW right ? NE would be back over Taiwan.


Got me ...thanks
You were reading my mind
The short wave IR shows the cdo disruption well.

196. beell
Quoting 192. moonlightcowboy:



Beell, buddy. Good explanation; sounds right. Hope you're well, look forward to your analysis this season. I'll be lurking mostly; lots of wise folks here like yourself, so I just watch and read these days. But I can say this--not liking the pattern developing, afraid we're in for some hurt down the line. Take care. 👍🏻😎


Not liking the pattern either, mlc. It's freekin' hot!!
Quoting 166. Gearsts:

Oh well...



Dusty, dry, hot, and b........
Celia will probably resemble Blas with its large eye.
Season™
200. beell
Sorry™
201. beell
I also own this one:

...but, but...darlin'...™
Quoting 201. beell:

I also own this one:

...but, but...darlin'...™


I miss your blog. Where am I supposed to give you a hard time anymore?
See the mountains interacting with the clouds over Taiwan :

Himawari-8 Link (rapid scan floater loop), until 0149 UTC. CIRA/RAMMB.
Super typhoon Nepartak tears into Taiwan's coastline
Link

Quoting 204. 999Ai2016:

See the mountains interacting with the clouds over Taiwan :

Himawari-8 Link (rapid scan floater loop), until 0149 UTC.
That is really cool.
I saw the topography firsthand one time as a teenager when I was on a flight from Miami to Mexico City. From the plane I could see how abruptly the elevation increases inland away from the coast. In fact, most of mainland Mexico is a raised plateau that averages 5,000 to 8,000 feet in elevation, Mexico City being 7,300 feet high
Quoting 155. BahaHurican:

Aha. Forgot about those mountains. There's a good - sized volcano in that area, iirc.
Quoting 5. 900MB:

Wow, 900MB...hey, that's me!
This gets my vote for funniest comment of the week!
Quoting 170. HurriHistory:



True, but the UL Winds also have to be just right or nothing will form. My gut feeling is that things will start to pick up toward the end of this month or early August. But of course I could be wrong. Its a wait and see game for sure.
Will the three vortex levels generally looked at--850, 700, and 500 mb "align easier" in the Atlantic for storms this year? I assume lower shear helps this happen. From what I have seen thus far this year they may. A positive factor to create a busier season. We shall see.
Quoting 176. Patrap:



Interesting blow up of convection to the southeast of Nepartak
(Screenshots)


Go Taiwan go you can rip that storm apart ! Crazy effect.
214. beell
Quoting 203. Naga5000:



I miss your blog. Where am I supposed to give you a hard time anymore?


LOL. A good question.

I miss it too, sometimes, Naga. A "drive-by" style of commentary seems to suit my present work/play ratio for now.

Intense Nepartak videos
Link
Link
As if Typhoon Nepartak weren't enough: Many injured in Taiwan train explosion Looks like terrorism.
02W/TY/N/OVL
almost fully offshore soon see if regain begins


is the typhoon moving due west now?
90W

Quoting 197. CaribBoy:



Dusty, dry, hot, and b........
DEAD,DEAD,DEAD!!Great news!
most Asian RSMC are noting northwest movement still except Taiwan that noted westward movement.
New Taipei City.
Quoting 118. Ylee:


Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TYPHOON BUTCHOY
11:00 AM PhST July 8 2016
======================
Typhoon "BUTCHOY" has further weakened while crossing Southern Taiwan

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Butchoy [NEPARTAK] (954 hPa) located at 22.6N 120.3E or 260 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gustiness up to 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #1
---------------------
Very light or no damage to low risk structures light damage to medium to high risk structures slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities.
Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 1.25-4.0 meters

Luzon region
===============
1. Babuyan group of Islands

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 650 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisherfolk are advised not to venture out over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the southern and western southern Luzon.

“Butchoy” will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over the provinces of Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas and Mindoro.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Quoting 220. Tazmanian:

90W




wow, an invest way east within WPAC. Didn't even notice anything that close to the international dateline.
Quoting 173. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Both tell the same tale. Four-E is well organized structurally, with a classic S-shaped convective pattern, but its broad structure and ill-defined center are precluding intensification right now. We should see more substantial development beginning tomorrow night or Saturday. We should be dealing with a major hurricane by upcoming midweek.

The hitch is that it's tracking over the upwelled cool wake of Blas. It'll have to get off that wake before it can pull together properly.
Quoting 225. HadesGodWyvern:



wow, an invest way east within WPAC. Didn't even notice anything that close to the international dateline.


I sounder if 90W will do any thing
Quoting 226. BayFog:


The hitch is that it's tracking over the upwelled cool wake of Blas. It'll have to get off that wake before it can pull together properly.


Agreed TD 4E may even open up to a wave if it dos not start getting its act together
Quoting 227. Tazmanian:



I sounder if 90W will do any thing


don't really see any model support yet.

Quoting 228. Tazmanian: Agreed TD 4E may even open up to a wave if it dos not start getting its act together


National Hurricane Center might anger TD 04E enough after stating it "Failed" XD
The 850mb, 700mb and 500mb vorticity maps show a highly concentrated vort max through all three levels over the NC and SC border currently this evening. Shear should be low once this system reaches the waters of the warm gulf stream which could lead to development into a tropical cyclone as it heads out to sea.
Quoting 197. CaribBoy:



Dusty, dry, hot, and b........


oring
I wanted to take a moment to thank everyone one posting about Nepartak. It is amazing and humbling to observe the power of at cat 5. It's impressive to see how far science has brought us in the last two decades relating to tropical systems. I can't wait to see what kind of images and forecast packages we get in 2026, or 2056 for that matter.

Also wanted to share some interesting bit of Seattle weather...

July 4th has come and gone. Typically, the sun should shining with bright blue cloudless skies overhead for the next six weeks. The average precipitation for July is a mere .7 inches. This year the forecast has clouds and rain through the period. While I'm personally loving the weather, others are not nearly as amused. Dr. Cliff Mass, an atmospheric sciences professor at UW in Seattle, posted a blog titled "Januly". Areas in the region might break record low temperatures this week.

Incoming front and upper trough looks to be enhancing and interacting with the moisture plume southwest of California generated from the remnant swirl of Agatha and a cutoff midlevel low. The Eureka radar is already showing increasing returns off the north coast, pushing southeastward.
RAMMB/CIRA Link - Himawari-8 sat (until 0519 UTC) :
Two dead and sixty-six injured out of Taiwan. Close to 400 thousand without power. These are just initial reports.
Incredible loss in Dallas tonight. Unthinkable and senseless what we're doing to each other in America. The division must stop! Thoughts, prayers, and deepest sympathy to all who have died such senseless deaths over the last two days. What happened in Dallas is not the answer. Eye for an eye leaves the whole world blind. Heartbreaking.
Quoting 233. Seattleite:

I wanted to take a moment to thank everyone one posting about Nepartak. It is amazing and humbling to observe the power of at cat 5. It's impressive to see how far science has brought us in the last two decades relating to tropical systems. I can't wait to see what kind of images and forecast packages we get in 2026, or 2056 for that matter.

Also wanted to share some interesting bit of Seattle weather...

July 4th has come and gone. Typically, the sun should shining with bright blue cloudless skies overhead for the next six weeks. The average precipitation for July is a mere .7 inches. This year the forecast has clouds and rain through the period. While I'm personally loving the weather, others are not nearly as amused. Dr. Cliff Mass, an atmospheric sciences professor at UW in Seattle, posted a blog titled "Januly". Areas in the region might break record low temperatures this week.


Yeah! Just in time for my next Seattle street fair...looks like we will be 3 for 3 on rainy fairs in Seattle this year. Oh well, Ballard seafood fest is really more of a giant beer garden with a few artist on the side. At least I haven't had to do any watering of my little trees, last year was a very different story. Close to a record low of with 43° yesterday here in Acme wa.
Quoting 233. Seattleite:

I wanted to take a moment to thank everyone one posting about Nepartak. It is amazing and humbling to observe the power of at cat 5. It's impressive to see how far science has brought us in the last two decades relating to tropical systems. I can't wait to see what kind of images and forecast packages we get in 2026, or 2056 for that matter.

Also wanted to share some interesting bit of Seattle weather...

July 4th has come and gone. Typically, the sun should shining with bright blue cloudless skies overhead for the next six weeks. The average precipitation for July is a mere .7 inches. This year the forecast has clouds and rain through the period. While I'm personally loving the weather, others are not nearly as amused. Dr. Cliff Mass, an atmospheric sciences professor at UW in Seattle, posted a blog titled "Januly". Areas in the region might break record low temperatures this week.



I lived in Seattle from 1997 to 2001, and don't remember any hot summers, was a pretty ideal climate to me while there! Going on a weather related ramble...had one winter, I think 98' or 99', that had a few weeks of very cold weather, snow and ice. I was living in West Seattle, and decided to head to Renton area at night, to the Walmart open late to get some fabric for some quick, extra curtains. As I was on the corner, and had lots of lovely windows, but was making it extra freezing with just blinds! Anyway, totally regretted trying to make that drive! ALL the roads and freeways were totally clogged from accidents because of the ice. Like, accidents every 100 yards, literally. I was sitting still in traffic, and my, 2 month old new car, started sliding sideways out of the blue....panic attack! LOL And even then, jerks driving totally stupid past my right, where there was no lane anyway! I got to a junction and remembered that it was a road that actually went back towards home in a back lane way, as at that point, just wanted to go home! So made the right turn, onto a huge hill...forgot it was a huge hill, even though not like weren't loads around anyway haha I never had anti-lock brakes before that car, so stressed out when they started up, on this snowy hill. I pulled over and just started crying LOL! So, I thought practically and said to myself...ok, an automatic car, still has the option of the gears for a reason (as had only driven manual before), so put it into 1st gear, and slowly plodded down the steep hill. At the bottom of said hill, were 7 or 8 cars that had crashed and skidded out. I felt really bad/uncomfortable driving past them! But thought, low gear, don't hit the brakes!!! I made it back home with me and car unscathed. Being from Palm Springs/NO icy weather, I was very pleased I was practical and stopped to think before I carried on. After being in Wales, it became easy peasy to deal with icy conditions (snow WAY better than ice).

Anyway, I do know how in that climate, you look forward to some actual summer! I'd be well happy with those cool temps now...and am only getting to about 80', but with humidity still too much for me :P LOL

The Taiwan landfall happened while I was at work, so grateful to you all posting the info, images and links, as always <3 Good for them it blew through pretty quick, and didn't hover round like the last Bahamas hurricane incident :s Hopefully fatalities are hardly any and damage not too bad,...aside from the footage of the cars I've seen already.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEPARTAK (T201601)
15:00 PM JST July 8 2016
==========================
Overland Taiwan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nepartak (960 hPa) located at 23.3N 120.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 24.9N 118.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland South China
48 HRS: 26.8N 117.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland South China
72 HRS: 29.2N 118.4E - Tropical Depression Overland Central China
Quoting 202. nothingtoofancy:


Amazing that those 1920s storms are still on the map 4 Florida....
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 1601 NEPARTAK (1601)

1. General comments
reasoning of prognosis this time is similar to previous one
position forecast is mainly based on numerical weather prediction and persistency

2. Synopsis situation
nothing particular to explain

3. Motion forecast
position accuracy at 06:00 AM UTC is good
typhoon will move at the same speed for the next 72 hours
typhoon will move northwestward for the next 24 hours then move northward

4. Intensity forecast
typhoon will be downgraded to a severe tropical storm within 24 hours
typhoon will weaken because landfall is expected within 24 hours
Final Dvorak intensity will be T3.5 after 24 hours
Quoting 207. lobdelse81:

I saw the topography firsthand one time as a teenager when I was on a flight from Miami to Mexico City. From the plane I could see how abruptly the elevation increases inland away from the coast. In fact, most of mainland Mexico is a raised plateau that averages 5,000 to 8,000 feet in elevation, Mexico City being 7,300 feet high

I made a similar trip as a teenager, but somehow managed to miss the visual impact of the mountains... no window seat ...
:-)
Quoting 240. KoritheMan:

Morning blog update.
Morning, Kori.
No comment on the ATL?
Still 84 degrees F here, at 4 a.m.!

And it's barely the second week of July...... :-/
Ah. .... rain, beautiful rain ... prolly won't last for more than 5 minutes, but it's certainly cooling me off ...
:o)



BTW, is it me, or has the recent update included an enhancement to the colour palate in the the infrared view????

Quoting 237. DeepSeaRising:

Incredible loss in Dallas tonight. Unthinkable and senseless what we're doing to each other in America. The division must stop! Thoughts, prayers, and deepest sympathy to all who have died such senseless deaths over the last two days. What happened in Dallas is not the answer. Eye for an eye leaves the whole world blind. Heartbreaking.

US Cops act confrontational in the first place. They behave like soldiers, trying to defend citizens instead of just protecting them, countering violent crime with violent policing. We have the same problem here in South Africa ...
In Europe the police aims to de-escalate the conflict before using force. That's not just a mindset but a major part of the training they receive.
Quoting 235. 999Ai2016:

RAMMB/CIRA Link - Himawari-8 sat (until 0519 UTC) :



Whoa! What type of imagery is this? It's so clear and looks slightly different from everything else I've seen.
250. MahFL
Quoting 249. AldreteMichael:



Whoa! What type of imagery is this? It's so clear and looks slightly different from everything else I've seen.


It's the latest Japanese satellite, they can take a picture every minute. The USA is launching a satellite that can do the same in Nov this year.
Quoting 249. AldreteMichael:



Whoa! What type of imagery is this? It's so clear and looks slightly different from everything else I've seen.
It's Japan's latest satellite imagery. Pretty decent stuff, it is ... available at, among other places, http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/hi mawari-8.asp
Quoting 250. MahFL:



It's the latest Japanese satellite, they can take a picture every minute. The USA is launching a satellite that can do the same in Nov this year.
About time [grumble grumble] though of course too late for this season .....
BTW, that Nepartak Coc looks tilted with height to me .... to the SSW or SW ....

Just sayin...
Ah ... temps did cool a couple of degrees post rain shower .... still above 80, though ....

And I gotta admit I feel like I'm the only one awake, in the blog AND in Nassau ..... lol ....

BBL
256. MahFL
Quoting 253. BahaHurican:

About time [grumble grumble] though of course too late for this season .....



Also next season, it's due to go operational end of 2017.
Quoting 256. MahFL:



Also next season, it's due to go operational end of 2017.
Bummer. :o(
atm it seems this typhoon barreled right over Taiwan. no side swipe this time
In non-tropical weather news, the heat in the US continues (forecast for this afternoon); I was outside last night in North Florida at 9:00 PM and was sweating in the yard talking to a neighbor:

comments falling into a black hole. (blog hole)
Where can I find info for 90W?
Hot and humid today in Chicagoland. Temps up to 88° and humidity at 93% currently.
Quoting 267. ChiThom:

Hot and humid today in Chicagoland. Temps up to 88° and humidity at 93% currently.


It actually cooled down here a bit ...although that wont last long
Currently 79.7F with 94 percent humidity, 78F dewpoint and 85F HI
We do have a 20 percent chance of rain ...fingers crossed
Quoting 268. ariot:

We (in the U.S.) do not do what we made Germany and Japan do after WWII, and that is know the horror of our own past, how we got to now. To this day, they spend time facing the oppression they imposed on others. We gloss it over and blame symptoms as if they are root causes.Is this related to the topics here? Yes, but only in a macro sense. Weather and climate are both forces that amplify human behavior. We should expect increased movement of people to more habitable and developed areas. We should expect more asymmetric conflict spurred by resource-seeking groups, both state and non-state actors.


I think the unreflective AGW denial grows on the same old dung heep - not looking back, no regrets, just pure selfishness ...
272. Tcwx2

Wow! Euro holding to its guns.
"Earl" Which eventually goes on to become what looks to be a minimal hurricane.
I guess I missed an awesome looking storm to track this week. Didn't even hear anything of it in the news.

Hello Earl my old friend.
While we are still several weeks away from the start of the Atlantic peak period, what all of the longer range models are showing (the posts below) is that strong ridging in the Central Atlantic starting to set up that would favor long-track CV storms into the Caribbean (subject to curvature if the right trof comes along as we get into September and November); have to keep a close eye on SST's and shear in the Central Atlantic and Caribbean this year:




Out for now.I'm afraid for my children husband or I to even walk out the door these days but since it is a weather/climate blog I will save my thoughts for somewhere else.
And no longer moving out in time. Hmmmmm


Quoting 272. Tcwx2:


Wow! Euro holding to its guns.
Quoting 280. hydrus:


No tropical waves exiting Africa. Hope to see some action in 2 weeks.


Coachella Valley experiencing the worst drought on record

Link
I thought 1004 mb would seem quite high for a minimal hurricane?? More like a 45 or 50mph tropical storm
Quoting 273. washingtonian115:

"Earl" Which eventually goes on to become what looks to be a minimal hurricane.

Another busy day in the Atlantic
285. Ed22
Quoting 273. washingtonian115:

"Earl" Which eventually goes on to become what looks to be a minimal hurricane.

Its looks promising but it is a wait and see moment...
Quoting 283. lobdelse81:

I thought 1004 mb would seem quite high for a minimal hurricane?? More like a 45 or 50mph tropical storm



Agreed, moderate tropical storm.
287. Ed22
Quoting 275. NCHurricaneTracker69:


Hello Earl my old friend.
We could have Earl in 6 days, still wait and see moment.
288. Tcwx2
Eventually goes down to 1001mb which is usually about a 45-65mph tropical storm. Not a hurricane.
Quoting 273. washingtonian115:

"Earl" Which eventually goes on to become what looks to be a minimal hurricane.

Quoting 283. lobdelse81:

I thought 1004 mb would seem quite high for a minimal hurricane?? More like a 45 or 50mph tropical storm

It was on a later frame that I just didn't post
Quoting 287. Ed22:

We could have Earl in 6 days, still wait and see moment.
Maybe something like Claudette from last year.
Tropical Atlantic THDV is, as usual, below average. Fairly sure this is just the new norm for the MDR though.



The Caribbean, on the other hand, is looking far more favorable with average vertical instability and reasonably average shear (this is in comparison to previous year where shear was at a record high IIRC).



City-Threatening Wildfires — The North’s New Climate Future

That great roaring sound you’re hearing may just be another 3.6 billion dollar climate disaster…

*****

Reports are in and it’s official — the Fort McMurray Fire was the costliest disaster ever to impact Canada. According to the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC), claims of damages for the massive Alberta wildfire have now topped 3.6 billion dollars. That’s worse than the Alberta floods of 2013 at 1.8 billion dollars (ranked third), and worse than the great Quebec ice storm of 1998 which inflicted 1.9 billion dollars (in 2014 dollars) in damages.

Link

Aqua/MODIS
2016/190
07/08/2016
06:30 UTC

Smoke over north central Russia

Link
Quoting 238. plantmoretrees:



Yeah! Just in time for my next Seattle street fair...looks like we will be 3 for 3 on rainy fairs in Seattle this year. Oh well, Ballard seafood fest is really more of a giant beer garden with a few artist on the side. At least I haven't had to do any watering of my little trees, last year was a very different story. Close to a record low of with 43° yesterday here in Acme wa.


I lived in Ballard for 5 years, only recently moving to Shoreline. First time in five years I'll be missing Seafood Fest. I'll be attending a Seattle Sounders vs. LA Galaxy football match instead. If you look at the forecast discussions for the various offices, some of them mention a possibility of thunderstorms on Saturday. Here's hoping for thunder! I'd do a rain dance if I wouldn't get hurt. ::hears most of Seattle groan with annoyance...

It's currently 63F and cloudy at 7:50AM. We have a 60% chance of rain today, with a forecast high of 71. I'll also mention that I'll be completely off the grid camping again from July 13-18, which means an Atlantic storm will form. They only happen in the early summer when I'm completely unaware of their existence. The last time I left we had the B and C storms. So here's to Earl forming around July 14...
Quoting 291. Climate175:

Maybe something like Cristobal from last year.

You mean Claudette?
Quoting 295. NCHurricaneTracker69:


You mean Claudette?
Yes Claudette I mean, got those two mixed up for a second.
SNPP/VIIRS
2016/189
07/07/2016
04:55 UTC

Fires and smoke in central Russia

Link
EP, 04, 2016070812, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1124W, 35, 1005, TS
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
900 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016

The cloud pattern of the tropical depression has become better
organized, with first-light visible imagery showing a ragged central
dense overcast surrounded by a complex of outer bands. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates are 30-35 kt, while AMSU and Advanced
Dvorak technique estimates from CIMSS are near 50 kt. Based on
this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Celia with winds
of 40 kt
Terra/MODIS
2016/190
07/08/2016
04:35 UTC

Fires and smoke in central Russia

Link

Quoting 268. ariot:



Weather and climate are both forces that amplify human behavior. We should expect increased movement of people to more habitable and developed areas. We should expect more asymmetric conflict spurred by resource-seeking groups, both state and non-state actors.


A potentially relevant article:
"The heat hypothesis states that hot temperatures can increase aggressive motives and behaviors. Although alternative explanations occasionally account for some portion of the observed increases in aggression when temperatures are high, none are sufficient to account for most such heat effects. Hot temperatures increase aggression by directly increasing feelings of hostility and indirectly increasing aggressive thoughts. Results show that global warming trends may well increase violent-crime rates."

Link
Quoting 280. hydrus:





well i gust Nepartak did not like them mts vary march
Quoting 303. Tazmanian:




well i gust Nepartak did not like them mts very much
pretty much
Quoting 202. nothingtoofancy:




I was on The Appalachian Trail in north Georgia when Opal blew through. That was an interesting night in the tent.
Aqua/MODIS
2016/190
07/08/2016
06:30 UTC

Fires and smoke along the Russian Arctic coast -

Link

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 287. Ed22:

We could have Earl in 6 days, still wait and see moment.


Yeah, wait and see. The Euro didn't do so well with the last system it tried to develop that came off the Mid Atlantic.
But conditions are a little more favorable now.