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Needed rains headed for Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:58 PM GMT on June 01, 2007

A large area of disturbed weather continues over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure. There is no circulation evident on QuikSCAT or satellite loops, and wind shear is about 20-30 knots, which is unfavorable for tropical storm formation. Wind shear is expected to remain high over the storm for the next few days, and I don't expect it to develop into a tropical depression. However, the storm has a lot of tropical moisture with it, and it should bring rains of 1-3 inches over western Cuba and much of Florida over the next two days, as well as the threat of 50 mph wind gusts and a few weak tornadoes. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate the system at 2pm EDT today, but I expect this will get canceled.

Figure 1. Total rainfall from the Key West radar.

June outlook
I'll be posting my forecast for the first two weeks of June by 1pm EDT today. I plan to offer 2-week hurricane activity forecasts on the 1st and 16th of each month (except August 1, when I'll be on vacation). These forecasts will have the probability of hurricane formation for the coming two weeks, where the hurricanes will go if they form due to the prevailing steering currents, plus a look at how sea surface temperatures, wind shear, the trade winds, and dry air coming off of Africa are affecting hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

Radio play
National Public Radio's The Story program will be airing a long interview with me today about my flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The show is carried on NPR stations in MI, WI, IL, IN, IA, MN, NC, NY, VA, and WI, and airs live today at 1pm or 8pm EDT. Check http://thestory.org/Stations for local stations and times. You can also listen live on the Internet at NPR station wunc.org in North Carolina. The host, Dick Gordon, is a very gifted interviewer, and it should be an interesting program.

Last night, I was guest on the Barometer Bob Show. You can listen to a podcast of my 50-minute spiel at http://www.barometerbobshow.com/podcast/.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.