WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Needed rains headed for Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:58 PM GMT on June 01, 2007

A large area of disturbed weather continues over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure. There is no circulation evident on QuikSCAT or satellite loops, and wind shear is about 20-30 knots, which is unfavorable for tropical storm formation. Wind shear is expected to remain high over the storm for the next few days, and I don't expect it to develop into a tropical depression. However, the storm has a lot of tropical moisture with it, and it should bring rains of 1-3 inches over western Cuba and much of Florida over the next two days, as well as the threat of 50 mph wind gusts and a few weak tornadoes. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate the system at 2pm EDT today, but I expect this will get canceled.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from the Key West radar.

June outlook
I'll be posting my forecast for the first two weeks of June by 1pm EDT today. I plan to offer 2-week hurricane activity forecasts on the 1st and 16th of each month (except August 1, when I'll be on vacation). These forecasts will have the probability of hurricane formation for the coming two weeks, where the hurricanes will go if they form due to the prevailing steering currents, plus a look at how sea surface temperatures, wind shear, the trade winds, and dry air coming off of Africa are affecting hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

Radio play
National Public Radio's The Story program will be airing a long interview with me today about my flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The show is carried on NPR stations in MI, WI, IL, IN, IA, MN, NC, NY, VA, and WI, and airs live today at 1pm or 8pm EDT. Check http://thestory.org/Stations for local stations and times. You can also listen live on the Internet at NPR station wunc.org in North Carolina. The host, Dick Gordon, is a very gifted interviewer, and it should be an interesting program.

Last night, I was guest on the Barometer Bob Show. You can listen to a podcast of my 50-minute spiel at http://www.barometerbobshow.com/podcast/.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

OK, most of the lakes in Oklahoma are over full, we can spare some rain to the South East US now.

Thanks for the Blog, Dr.Masters
Thanks for the update Dr. I cant wait for the forecast!
yes, hopefully this tropical blob of an invest will bring us rain and help finish off the fires and replenish the lakes, rivers, and aquifers
thanks Jeff but could there be another low South of Cuba?


low
drakoen I can see it kinda also...is there another low?
Latest regarding the east coast situation:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
953 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

VALID 12Z TUE JUN 05 2007 - 12Z FRI JUN 08 2007

...CONCERNING THE LOW RIDING UP THE EAST COAST...

THE SHORT RANGE/PMDHMD PREFERRED SOLUTION WAS A BLEND OF THE 00Z
UKMET AND 12Z/31 ECMWF. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DEEPER
AND FASTER. A DEEPER SOLN SEEMS TO IMPLY SOMETHING SLOWER...SO
WITH THE 00Z UKMET A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE 00Z
ECMWF...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF BLENDING THEIR SOLUTIONS WHICH
MEANT SLOWING AND DEEPENING THE 00Z ECMWF SLIGHTLY D3/MON AND
4/TUES. NHC AGREED ON THIS SCENARIO VIA COORDINATION...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE GFDL ALSO FAVORS A DEEPER SOLUTION...ALBEIT MORE
OFFSHORE/EASTERLY LIKE ITS PARENT GFS...ESPECIALLY ON DAY 3/MON.
Posted By: C2News at 2:06 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

drakoen I can see it kinda also...is there another low?

maybe wanna see what NHC says.
I was suspecting the samething Drakoen. The wind shift we have here in Grand Cayman and by the look of the sea and waves would support a low trying to form in that area, we'll have to wait and see.
you can see a clear spin on the satellite imagery. I hope the Recon will investigate this area. I am gonna check on the buoys
I was just wondering i was on the blog DrM wrote yesterday and i seen where someone said new blog and i tried 3 times to get here is said no such blog. Did that happen to anyone else, not trying to change the subjuct off of tropical i was just wondering. Thanks/
why would they send a RECON flight out there? The convection is dissipating by the second.
that didn't happen to me...
the convective activity could come back..
yes it happened to me too
Morning all! I have updated my blog.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21.4N 85.6W. A TROUGH EXISTS FROM
25N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE L0W PRESSURE
CENTER...TO 16N89W FROM BELIZE INTO GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATER NORTHEAST OF 19N80W
21N83W...SOME OF IT REACHING CUBA BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
STILL IS OVER THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SIMILAR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF CUBA...AND
EVEN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW CLUSTERS ALSO...SOUTH
OF 19N WEST OF 82W. THIS LOW CENTER/TROUGH FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AND TO PRODUCE
RAIN FOR WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA. STAY TUNED.



it looks like we might be seeing yet another transfer of energy to the blob in the central Caribbean.

RGB

On this RGB enhanced image you can really see the shear hammering on the west side of 92L.

(The yellow-ish hues are visual data and the blue-grey is IR. You can see how much the shear is shoving the convection to the NE away from the denser cloud cover)
Thank you Dr Masters!!! Glad you set up a new thread. And the info. Glad we are going to get a lot of rain but no real serious wind from this...our kind of storm for now!!!

Storyofthecane do you see the spin i am talking about at 19.6 83.5? There is still a bit of convective activity within that area t produe something more significant.
Is the maybe new rotation S of Cuba @ about 83 W and 19 N??? Rough coordinates.
Thanks Drakoen you answered my question before I asked it! LOL
Posted By: groundman at 2:28 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Thanks Drakoen you answered my question before I asked it! LOL


hehe no problem!
im not seeing any spin in that area. Can anybody post a quicksat?
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 2:29 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

im not seeing any spin in that area. Can anybody post a quicksat?

look at the animated satellite o IR loop. and focus on that spot. its there...
You know what will be something, if this season becomes a dud. I am still going to get my supplies and all but I'm thinking it is going to be an average hurricane season.
This blob represents a true win-win deal for Florida. No widespread damage but, hopefully, a lot of good rain. If it could just shift a bit more north so that more of the state would be south of the center. The only thing that would make it better would be to slow down a bit once on-shore.
I think the area in the Central Caribbean has a better chance that the area in the NW Caribbean
Watch out Waveland,MS Jim Cantore is there!!
possible rotation I con't think I can paste actual link for some reason, youll have to click again and animate Link
p.s. Hey Gams. Hope all is well with you and yours.
WPB how do you figure? All 4 major prediction hubs are predicting a VERY ACTIVE season. Shear is abnormally low and SSTs are abnormally high. The SAL is pretty much nonexistent.
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 2:31 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.
Watch out Waveland,MS Jim Cantore is there!!


When is he leaving??? Seriously. I hope it's soon.
Well...it didn't spin up and it's now a rain event.

For those who need a hurricane fix today, check out Hurricane Dennis - 8 minutes of raw / no voice footage. See and hear a tree snap at 3:07 PM.

Enjoy the rain event. My Florida needs it and I hope it gets plenty over the next two days!

PS: I have begun assembling my famous GOES East IR animations. I'll release my first completed animation for the month of June 2007 on July 1, 2007 on YouTube!
Shear is abnormally low and SSTs are abnormally high.

Shear is abnormally low? There's 20-30 kts above this guy right now.
Observed at: Pompano Beach, Florida
Elevation: 16 ft / 5 m

77 F / 25 C
Light Rain
Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 64 F / 18 C
Wind: 18 mph / 30 km/h / 8.2 m/s from the ESE
Wind Gust: 26 mph / 43 km/h / 11.8 m/s
Pressure: 29.99 in / 1016 hPa (Rising)

Here in Pompano Beach, the wind is slowly picking up. Have had some gusts up 30 mph this morning and light rain so far.
Story-I was just throwing thoughts out there.


Homegirl & Drakoen: Thanks you'll I was just wondering. I thought it was weird, it's never happened to me before. I'm gonna go back lurking. Everyone have a great Friday.
Hi aggie,
haven't talked to you since last summer. hope all is well.... I went to see Lake O Wed and got some pic...we are all really hoping to see a lot of rain from this system! Between the dried up lake and the fires in the north; Florida is in bad shape right now!

Hi everyone, will check back later.
how the Caribbean is looking now is what it normally looks like in June
Posted By: swlaaggie at 10:36 AM EDT on June 01, 2007.
Shear is abnormally low and SSTs are abnormally high.

Shear is abnormally low? There's 20-30 kts above this guy right now.


Story is correct. It is normal for shear to be high because it is early season, but for this time of year shear is low.
West Caribbean shear is below normal

NA
Posted By: swlaaggie at 2:36 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.
Shear is abnormally low and SSTs are abnormally high.

Shear is abnormally low? There's 20-30 kts above this guy right now.



I wasn't referring to the storm, I was referring to the entire Atlantic in general.
Posted By: seminolesfan at 2:36 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

QS Link

isn't that showing a vortex there?
if the Caribbean is this active already on June 1st, what does July, August and September have in store for us?
hey seminoles fan, the swirl to the sw of cuba looks pretty impressive on that qs pic!
Mornin WPB05 - that green on the radar looks pretty - you should be gettin it soon:)
what does July, August and September have in store for us?

We should know what the first 2 weeks of June have in store for us at 1PM.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:57 AM EDT on June 01, 2007
I'll be posting my forecast for the first two weeks of June by 1pm EDT today.
put this on rock, if anything comes out of the NW Caribbean Id be very surprised

Rainbow IR Loop
Good morning gator, I'm watching and waiting. Link
i think we'll see 2-3 storms in the month of June.
StoryoftheCane- Blue line is current shear....
Alright, the center of this disturbance is now very apparent on the visible satellite loop. If those clouds thicken up around the north side of the center and wrap themselves around it this afternoon, we could be looking at a depression. I think NHC will investigate the system this afternoon. I don't think they will cancel their flights.
Last year we had Alberto on June 10, but it didn't mean we were headed for an active season...

Wish I could send some rain down to Alabama; Kansas City got another 1"+ overnight.
there will definitely not be a Recon flight today, it would be a waste of time
osted By: rwdobson at 2:47 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.
Last year we had Alberto on June 10, but it didn't mean we were headed for an active season...



last year was an El Nino year, and 2005's record breaking season's first storm was on June 9th, so there is no correlation with when the first storm hits
im thinking only 1 this month StoryOTC
I would like to share the Latest SFWMD Model Consensus with you guys. Here's a link:SFWMD Model Consensus @ Forum Giant
Is the coc now just NW of Cuba ?
yeah MahFL. I wouldn't count it out story. The center is looking better on the satellite view.
Posted By: bocaman at 2:46 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Alright, the center of this disturbance is now very apparent on the visible satellite loop. If those clouds thicken up around the north side of the center and wrap themselves around it this afternoon, we could be looking at a depression. I think NHC will investigate the system this afternoon. I don't think they will cancel their flights.


I dont think so considering the shear. The only way this system can develop is if the secondary low can get convective activity around it. Right now i am noticing some cold cloud tops forming just South ofCuba.
hey nolesfan, where did you get that quikscat image? the one on wu page looks much different.
rwdobson-
The reason we had a "normal" season last year was because an El nio developed. This year, the opposite, a La Nia, is expected. Even if the La Nia is weak or possibly non-existent, There will still be neutral conditions present, and considerably less shear than last year, resulting in much more favorable conditions for Tropical Cyclogenesis. Not to mention the fact that SST's are already 0.6 Degrees above normal on average in the atlantic. This season will be more active than last year, not nearly as active as 05', however. 05' The SST's were over 1 degree above normal at this time, last year temperatures were hardly above normal. All conditions right now continue to suggest an active season this year, and that's what most likely will happen.
good morning all....what made the models shift more to the left? Is the front in the midwest taking more time move south? The sheer is really pushing the cloud tops to the se....I do not see how any strengthening is possible, unless the coc is trying to redevelop south of Cuba.
My area in North Florida is a foot below normal for the year with a drought index in the 650-700. Any rain will be good, but it would take the rain of a hurricane to get close to even. When Frances came inland and sat over Florida. Gainesville got 11 inches of rain over 36 hours with winds at an average of 50-55 mph.
jphurricane, why not a recon flight?
Shear is still too high, but it is dropping so I think we should see Bary this month.

NA
Wouldn't it be prudent to give the Hunters a little pre-season warm-up with this system. From pilots to technicians to data retrieval, I think a routine fly-in couldn't hurt the science side of it.
Yup fldoughboy, I received 15 inches of rain, 95 MPH winds, and lost my porch.
Does anyone have any idea where this storm can make landfall in Florida? Thanks..
Looks like the rain is finally coming to Clearwater. I had a few drops on the Windshield.
the rain has made it to Miami.....
Posted By: homegirl at 2:54 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.
hey nolesfan, where did you get that quikscat image? the one on wu page looks much different.



From Here:http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/hires/
Hurricane 05, I can believe it. Of course I am 80 miles inland, most of the "power" of the hurricane decreases with the friction of the land. But still, with Frances and Jeanne it was quite amazing.
Barbara, back to a tropical storm is now will tracks further east. It may go into the Gulf. I wonder what that will be like. maybe it will dissapate before even having a chance of regaining.
Fldoughboy- I wouldn't necessarily call it a "landfall" because this will just be a broad low pressure system, non-tropical in nature. It looks like the entire Florida Peninsula is in store for some much needed rain. It's good news for everyone.

Also, I would like ask for help from some of you. I am looking for moderators for the Weather Forum on Forum Giant. I really need more people to register so we can have a bickering-free place where everyone's opinion is heard, to discuss anything on.
I would appreciate it, and it requires no personal information whatsoever, it's free to join.
Register Here
Tropics Forum

Forum Giant Home

THANKS! :)
Winds coming from the SE at 10 MPH, pressure is at 1014.7 and dropping at my house.
I see the COC becoming more defined north of the yucatan, also looks like it might have took a jog to the west, looks more like a panhandle of Florida landfall whether it makes TD or TS status. As they say " a rose by any other name is still a rose."
jphurricane, you stay in south florida? Down here the wind and rain has been picking up since this morning. The clouds are moving east at a quicker pace too. I have a feeling the low pressure area is strengthening right now. Anybody in south florida seeing this?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
SQUALLS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS LANDFALL OVER EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN ABOUT
36 HOURS.

That is what the GFDL showed.
jp, something tells me we are in for another wierd hurricane season.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
SQUALLS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
Thanks HurricaneFCast, I know that "landfall" isn't an actual term to use, but I couldn't think of anything else.

I noticed Barbara is actually moving East, kind of reminds me of "wrong way" Lenny moving West to the East as a Cat 4 storm.
The recon is still scheduled for today.
At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter how active, or not active, the tropics will be this year, or any year for that matter. What does matter to me is where these bad boys and girls head once they form.

I, and I'm pretty confident in saying a whole bunch of people just like me, don't want any part of another 2005. We are just getting our stuff picked up that got scattered pretty far and wide that year.

Here's to the 2007 fish storms.
Woohoo!! Public advisory for Barbra, Tropical Storm Watch issued.
Oh okay. Yeah I moved to Pompano Beach recently. We've had some gusts up to 30 mph this morning with some of these showers already.
I am thankful of the storm thats going to give us down in southern florida a break from the drought but I think everyone is bringing it up too much. It doesn't look like a big threat so why can't we just let it pass, get water, and worry about the other storms.
At 0600Z the low was over the Yucatan Channel. Waiting for the 12Z analysis to show up.
where barbara is to make landfall is where the strip of land is smaller in width to the bay of campechi, so maybe it wont dissapate that much. This is gonna be one of those strange hurricane seasons.
It's raining over Lake O.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 3:08 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Drakoen dont take it out of context

It doesnt say that the recon will go out regardless of whether it develops, those are 2 separate sentences, just wanted to clear up any confustion

what are you tlking about??? It does say the recon will go regardless on whether the system develops or not. On another not the appears to be moving east toward south florida as of the current loop.
Good call JP!!!
lol flfish....now that would be boring! Nice wind gust in Miami. Just blew over a patio chair.....Wonder if I should move light stuff in the garage???
No drak...sorry. It say regardless of development there will be rain for FL.
Its raining at my house.
oh i see what you mean. whatever they recon is still going out. So i can infer that the they will go out regardless of the situation with the system.
Drakeon, JP is right. This is the sentence, "REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA"
Wonder if I should move light stuff in the garage???

I did, I moved in the skim boards and light stuff that can blow around.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 3:13 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

no it doesnt drakoen look at it again there is a period before the word Regardless they are 2 separate sentences

OK I GET IT YOU GUYS DOIN'T HAVE TO KEEP ATTACKING ME! I MADE A MISTAKE.....jeez
jp, its been dry everywhere, we had numerous wildfires in broward county last month, we had a few days where you couldn't even see the sun due to all of the smoke in the air.
osted By: stormpetrol at 3:04 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.
I see the COC becoming more defined north of the yucatan, also looks like it might have took a jog to the west, looks more like a panhandle of Florida landfall whether it makes TD or TS status. As they say " a rose by any other name is still a rose."

Thought I saw that COC too, I think the hunters will go out because ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. And here come Barbara?? I'd better go to Wal Mart.
good call WPB....bbl
Posted By: southbeachdude at 3:13 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

lol flfish....now that would be boring! Nice wind gust in Miami. Just blew over a patio chair.....Wonder if I should move light stuff in the garage???
I am in Ft Myers and wind is calm here
if the recon goes out today it won't be because they are expecting to find anything
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 3:14 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Drakeon, JP is right. This is the sentence, "REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA"


two people have pointed this out to me already. I fixed the stupid post. Jeez one mistake i make an your all out for the kill.
oh i see what you mean. whatever they recon is still going out. So i can infer that the they will go out regardless of the situation with the system.

Must be trying to get a rookie pilot trained. Wish we had a winky face icon.
I agree with the doc here, 92L probably wont form but will be a massive help with rain here.We already have gotten some rain in fact.

Also, dont forget Barbara guys. She is starting to look really good off of Mexico, maybe shell be a cane before landfall?

I updated on both storm here: Hurricane Warning
121. HCW
Models are shifting north . What do you think of this ...Link
Sorry drak, but we weren't all being rude.

Please Note: Comments will take a few seconds to appear on the blog pages
TWC will have a major hurricane hit Miami on It could happen tomorrow.

NA
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 3:16 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

if the recon goes out today it won't be because they are expecting to find anything


So....why will they?There's definitelly a low,you can see it on vsible loops.
Yeah sorry drak, when I posted that I hadn't seen any other corrections. Not trying to attack you, just correct you.
when is that on TWC, WPB?
Okay...now everyone shake hands...lol
...good morning, all. I see that we've got a rain event and Lake O is getting wet...WTG, congratulations, Okee's!

...what's up with Barbara? Gonna get her name changed to Barry? Or will shear still be too high in the GOM?
im not questioning theres a low Kris, im just saying its a waste of resources
Tough crowd today. It's Friday, it's going to rain in Florida, it's not supposed to rain in SW Louisiana, and it's cocktail hour somewhere. Add it all up and it's all good.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 3:18 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Drakoen it had nothing to do with that and we both were probably typing it at the same time, but its something that needed to be pointed out to avoid confusion on the blog

its nothing against you personally


heh and yet i won't know that for sure...
anyways the low pressure aa appears to be moving to the NNE shown on the Satellite imagery. I am still think its gonna cross over south Florida and be a big rain maker, possible TD. NHC saying small organization i necessary and i am noticing building cold cloud topson the entire east side and part of the west side of t low.
thanks Turtle for the update.....


seems nne motion continues......
Good day everyone ...Im in Broward county florida... and they said we will have gust to 38
when is that on TWC, WPB?

This Sunday at 9pm EDT.
If Barbara cuts thru the narrowest part of Mexico, this can be quite interesting by mid week next week with some slow development! Anyone agree on this even though it's 5 days out?

92L could take a track similar to Alberto last year toward the Big Bend of Florida.
No problem southbeach. You better tell channel 7 about your chair, theyll want footage :P
Posted By: thelmores at 3:22 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.



seems nne motion continues......

yea i am gonna have to disagree with the models on this one unless some dramtic steering current comes and pull north. I say its more ENE movement.
Winds gusting up to 15MPH at my house in West Palm.
Yeah JPhurricane, you all need the rain bad up there too. We all need a huge rain maker to fill up these lakes and rivers. The rain is on the increase here. More light rain right now.
Are you sure that wasn't an iguana up there letting loose a fart near your anomometer WPB lol? Nah its been gusty here in broward too.
WV

All that dry air to the west will start to be a factor before too long. (As far as tropical development is concerned)
146. FLBoy
000
NOUS42 KNHC 011430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 01 JUN 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-009

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 02/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA CYCLONE
C. 02/0915Z
D. 27.0N 85.0W
E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

They have tasked another flight for tomorrow.
Guys, the low your seeing is not tropical.

No reason to analyze it so much.
lol turtle.....my dog actually knocked it over.......LOL but channel 7 has already knocked on my door!
Did anyone notice the spin right after sunrise off the cayman's? It looks more impressive than the main center.
Zach, has a storm ever moved from the Pacific to the GOM and renamed?
it is cool to hear my wind chimes though....can anyone recommend a good weather radio for the upcoming hurricane season (I hope this is on topic)
just rain and no wind here in the cape coral area...unless something changes drastically, I think we are just in for a rain maker folks - and a welcomed one at that :-)
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 11:09 AM EDT on June 01, 2007.
what really makes me laugh is that the "drought" in south florida isnt as bad as it is here and in north florida



That doesn't mean it's not bad down here.The Lake and everglades are as dry as I've ever seen them.
Link Fires in big cypress have been burning for three weeks now.
talk about a waste of natural resources, why in the world would they go tomorrow too?
Story, they are not actually flying today or tomorrow. Its a precautionary measure.
Hello everyone,

Hey Doc, it sure must be nice to go on vacation every other month. For you to be on vacation during hurricane season, the wife must have twisted your arm pretty hard.....

Lets see...

Barbara is still trying to come up and join us. I know, I know.....the chances are slim but not its not impossible especially if she strengthens and moves a little faster. But really theres nothing on here to discuss. All this rain and tropical storms are boring, right guys......



TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED THIS MORNING AS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED.
A 1220 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS LEAVES LITTLE DOUBT THAT A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION EXISTS AND IN FACT...IT INDICATES THAT BARBARA
IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/4. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS
BECOMING A DEEP SYSTEM AGAIN...THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY STEER THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD.
THE UMKI...NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND GFDL FIELDS SHOW LANDFALL IN
EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS REQUIRES
ANOTHER EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS LANDFALL OVER EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN ABOUT
36 HOURS. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO.

BARBARA IS LOCATED OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEER ENVIRONMENT.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION
IS THE QUESTION. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS DOES THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST. THEREAFTER....INTERACTION WITH LAND COULD HALT ANY
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.
heres where i think it will go...
my forecast
Story-they prob tasked one for tomm in preperation to cancel today's flight. IMHO
Dew point is going up..64 yesterday 68 today.
Posted By: ioweitall2charley at 3:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

just rain and no wind here in the cape coral area...unless something changes drastically, I think we are just in for a rain maker folks - and a welcomed one at that :-)We must be in the eye lol
raise that line to about 50 miles north of Tampa and you have it on.

computer guidance has shifted north today and is in better agreement.
ok, who is going to decide how much we should "analyze" something??? Just wondering! ;)
What I dont get about the it could happen tommorw story is that we have had a major hurricane hit its called andrew and wilma.
Drakoen put that line right through Miami and that is the more likely path in my opinion, pretty much the same consensus though
thx nolesfan!
Posted By: Joshfsu123 at 3:33 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

raise that line to about 50 miles north of Tampa and you have it on.

computer guidance has shifted north today and is in better agreement.


i have seen that. but as of now ican't believe that due to th currentmotion of the low. Those models could change dramatically at any time.
Afternoon all, good to see everyone ☺

Looks to me like the center is just on the NW edge of the convective ban and is moving NNE or a hair N of that. If you use the GHCC map and set the animation to 20, turn the Lat/lon on, and select that area then speed it up pretty fast, I think you can see a fairly well designed center. Just checked it out though. Any thoughts?
Marlins, I think they are doing story on direct hit of downtown Miami
"heres where i think it will go..."

Hey Drak..... your line looks NNE.... not ENE.... better redraw! LOL
I agree with you Story. This system has South Florida written all over it making landfall as a strong low or a depression.
Just the fact that a storm is heading northeast into Guatemala and could emerge in the gulf is trippin...
This is surprising from NHC:

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
SQUALLS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
Posted By: homegirl at 3:35 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.
thx nolesfan!


No Prob!
Drak, on your map I think the center is just a litte N of that and moving a little more northerly then your arrow. If that is correct then the flight today could make sense due to it having another 12 to 24 hours over water as opposed to the S Fla scenario.
ummm...I have been reading this blog for a couple of days now. I just want to clear up a point about the drought issue in Florida. Lake O and The Everglades get their water MOSTLY from up north. Since the drought in Central and Northern Florida has been so bad, they have both been severely affected. My grass is green here in Miami and has been for a couple of weeks now. When it rains in Miami, it goes almost directly into Florida Bay or Biscayne Bay. It does not help our water supply (Lake O) or our aquifer (what feeds The Everglades, for the most part). So, jp, you are correct, the "drought" in South Florida has not been as severe, but the drought in Central and Northern Florida affect us here in South Florida to the point where our water supply is next to nothing. SOOOOoo, for all you South Floridians, pray for rain in Central and Northern FLorida. That will be the MOST help for Big Cypress, The Everglades, and Lake O.

Cheers!
LOL. heres my cone of error. even if i tracks north of my line the heaviest rainfall will still be i South Florida with the big squall line.

forecast cone!
what surprised you turtle??
yeah i see the spin now, but its so close to Cuba its hard to think thats not going to have some inhibiting factor
lol nice Drakoen, satisfy the masses
183. FLBoy
Here is a list of tropical cyclones that have crossed from the Atlantic basin to the Northeast Pacific and vice versa.
Nice points amiga! ☺
Posted By: StormJunkie at 3:39 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Drak, on your map I think the center is just a litte N of that and moving a little more northerly then your arrow. If that is correct then the flight today could make sense due to it having another 12 to 24 hours over water as opposed to the S Fla scenario.


i am gonna disagree. i just looked at the satellite animated loop. my circle is not perfect. look at me cone of error.Even if it did go slightly north of that ine the heaviest rainfall will still be in Sout Florida. And you still have to factor in t winds shear on this system. I give it a 10% chance of becoming a depression.
Well, considering this is attached to a warm front I would not consider this tropical. Thats what surprised me thelmores.
ROFL-Drak..So anywhere from Big Bend to Key West Huh? Talk about hedging your bets...lol
Turtle, why do you say that this a non tropical low???
Posted By: marlinsfan1 at 3:34 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

What I dont get about the it could happen tommorw story is that we have had a major hurricane hit its called andrew and wilma.


Andrew....did not affect downtown with more than Cat. 2 winds....ditto for Wilma.
Is it just me or does that COC look like it was moving nnw in the last few frames?
What I dont get about the it could happen tommorw story is that we have had a major hurricane hit its called andrew and wilma.

Wilma didn't directly hit Miami and a lot has changed since Andrew.
Sp's bottom line...

A. There is a low level circulation!

B. This thing is getting sheared apart from the center.

C. It will bring rain to south florida and mid florida today and tomrrow.

D. This will NOT form into a tropical or subtropical storm.. Depression mabye.
Because its attached to a warm front, do you guys know about that requirement for tropical cyclones or no?

Well, tropical cyclones cant have frontal features or their hybrid. 92L clearly has a warm front that is visible from radar.
bring on the rain...



Excellent song...gives me chills every time I here it!
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
5 products found for Marine Zone: GMZ054
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Special Marine Warning
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1133 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

GMZ054-073-074-011600-
/O.CON.KKEY.MA.W.0058.000000T0000Z-070601T1600Z/
1133 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
WATERS FROM THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM
WATERS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT
20 NM

AT 1131 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS OVER
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT TO LOOE KEY LIGHT AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD 20 MILES...MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...ROUGH SEAS...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN...AND
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...
UNTIL THREATENING WEATHER HAS PASSED.
Posted By: swFLboy at 3:44 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.
anyone in here


Nope...check back later.
199. MahFL
Turtlehurricane, that is indeed suprising....that is what makes Hurricane season so intersting, one never knows exactly what is going to happen untill it happens....
000
FXUS62 KTBW 011226
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
826 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVELS RAINS STARTING TO BREACH THE DRY
LOWER LEVELS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. EXPECT THE NORTHWARD
MIGRATION OF THE RAIN TO CONTINUE AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR JUST
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WE`LL GET THUNDER GIVEN RELATIVE LACK OF
STORMS OVER THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S LIFETIME...BUT WILL LEAVE
IN SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND NUDGE
TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

WILL ALSO ADD A HEADLINE FOR CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES FOR
WINDS OF 20 KNOTS. MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH SOLID 20-25 KNOTS
IN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND FEET AND WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX THIS
DOWN. AT 7 AM...KAPF ALREADY REPORTED GUSTS TO 21 KNOTS.

STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL APPROACHES
THE PENINSULA. THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BRING UP TO
50 MPH GUSTS...AND THIS THREAT IS MENTIONED IN CURRENT HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR IS SHEAR PROFILES AHEAD
OF THE LOW. WE`RE KEEPING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...THREAT STILL LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR
BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FORT MYERS AND REGIONAL SOUTHWEST TERMINALS
AS AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH TO SARASOTA...SAINT
PETERSBURG AND TAMPA INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
ALL TERMINAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL AREAS OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST GULF MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE WATERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL APPROACHES. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE WITH THE CONVECTION WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THUS CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK GOOD FOR ADVISORIES OVER THE OUTER
WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER ALL WATERS COME SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON LIMITED BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER PASSES FOR POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS
BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM EDT TODAY UNTIL 10 AM
EDT SUNDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJS
AVIATION...JCM
i also think it will head towards miami though much of florida and south goargia should get some benificial rains.
Drak, I did not say anything about S Fla not getting some good rains and you are correct. If it goes over the Tampa area then you will likely get some of the heaviest rains, but I think the left side of your cone is the most likely scenario as to where the center goes.

Right now the Center is just W of 85 and is starting to wrap some cloud cover in as it passes over some warm waters that are pretty deep. Shear is still ripping at it and making it appear to move more easterly then it is.
Agree with Jp that this thing is organizing. Pray for rain.
its got about 10 hours left over water so we'll see, if it gets to TD status its going to be weak and short-lived.
Anyone think Tropical Storm Barbara may cross or reform when she gets into the gulf?

Also anyone want to place bets on where Barry is going to pop up.. Personally I am thinking leeward islands
rain rain rain......no storm, dression at best. Shear is way to heavy for real development....but the rain will be a good thing in central Florida
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...


Thank you NHC, you feel the same way I do, a little Batting Practice never hurts..
Last year's week storm activity may have the whole organization rusty, this Carrib system with its weak squalls is a good playing field to dust out the cobwebs that may linger from 2006. Way to go, NHC!
Andrew hit homstead and was very small and Wilma didn't hit Miami directly... it hit northern borward and wasn;t a major hurricane when it did hit broward
Also anyone want to place bets on where Barry is going to pop up.. Personally I am thinking leeward islands

I say Barry this month (June) and will form in the Western Caribbean.
lol... Look at the bloody COC. It's moving nw-nnw. I dunno if thats a wobble or what, but that could be why the models have it in the big bend.
it hit northern borward and wasn;t a major hurricane when it did hit broward


Wilma went over my house in West Palm.
thats a safe bet WPB
I think that is just a wobble hells, but it is moving fairly northerly if I am reading it right.
ROFL MP. Prepare to get hit.
looks like we are going to get some very interesting weather tonight into tommorrow, Isolated tornados and numerous wind gusts to 50 mph are expected with squalls here, I live along the west coast, waitin for a good soakin, first decent weather event here in months...


FINALLY ITS ARRIVING!!! lol
I know what the requiements are for a tropical system turtle, however this system appears to have low level vortex circulation with deep tropical convection on the east and northeast side of its center. This is a typical developing assymetrical june tropicl system in the southern gulf.
it's raining great weather to stay home and write a paper
Clouds are trying to wrap around the center!

Well cane, your right, I had to see it to believe it. Is that a mcv or an actual surface low. Some of the models (GEM) have it stitting in the gulf before the upper low to the nw picks it up. Could deepen to 995 mb. before 'landfall' as a disturbance. I see better and better chances for N Fla getting rain from this Hopfully SE GA as well. Im sick of the smoke up here in Atlanta.
swFLboy...the NHC does account for froward speed in their intensity estimates.
What is the best site that shows the computer models ?
Anyone think Tropical Storm Barbara may cross or reform when she gets into the gulf?

Does anyone know this answer to oriondarkwood's question? Would it get renamed?
do any of yall think barbara could get into the gulf and reform?
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 3:47 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.
its got about 10 hours left over water so we'll see, if it gets to TD status its going to be weak and short-lived.


Story, it is going to be over water much longer then 10hrs. It will not be on shore by 10:00 tonight. It has more like 36+ hrs over water if you ask me. Will be interesting so see what the 12z model runs say though. Does not look like it is in a rush anywhere. The shear is tearing the convection off to the NE and NNE quickly, but the system is not moving that fast.
yea but before wilma went into palm beach it hit northern broward ...
yesterday someone posted up a link to the cuba weather could they repost it
stlrz, welcome!

You can find some of the best model pages from here.
Posted By: stlrzrule at 4:00 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.
What is the best site that shows the computer models ?



Link
In the Treasure Island (st. pete side of the tampa bay)area here ...watching a blob that is trying to move in from the south but we have steady 15mph winds from the East that, so far, is keeping any of this rain from moving in ... anyone see signs that this blob will win the power struggle of the winds and give us some rain?
Thanks for the welcome. I have been using this site for a few years but never joined or chatted. Just read all the stuff. Thanks for the link
do any of yall think barbara could get into the gulf and reform?

GFS has quite a bit of shear in northern GOM through next week anyway - I hope Mexico chews her up and if there is anything left, "it" gets ripped to pieces
Posted By: bocaman at 3:59 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

I know what the requiements are for a tropical system turtle, however this system appears to have low level vortex circulation with deep tropical convection on the east and northeast side of its center. This is a typical developing assymetrical june tropicl system in the southern gulf.


It may be so, but the shear is ripping it apart greatly. Any chance for development would have to quickly before the shear really rips it apart and before 92L moves into cooler waters.
Hooray, Hooray, we're on our way, hurricane season starts today!



Sorry - it's a modification of quote from a Berenstein Bears book, but I've always wanted to say it.
I think they do add the motion of the storm into the wind speeds. I remember Don Noe (Chief Met. for Local 10 in Miami) talking about that.
In the Treasure Island (st. pete side of the tampa bay)area here ...watching a blob that is trying to move in from the south but we have steady 15mph winds from the East that, so far, is keeping any of this rain from moving in ... anyone see signs that this blob will win the power struggle of the winds and give us some rain?



Oh ya, the model consensus gives us very heavy rain, in fact 2 to 4 inches seems absolutely reasonable given our area being on the east quadrant and the very high moisture levels(like a tropical cyclone has evenm though it isn't tropical right now).


I live in the tampa bay area along the coast too, I am eagerly awaiting this event.
I think there is a good chance of this becoming a tropical depression now that cloudsare beginning to wrap around the COC. Here another graphic of mine... comments welcome

forecast
Hello everyone,

Thanks for all of you and your insight into tropical weather. I find this blog very informative and interesting. I'm learning a lot, but I have a long way to go!

I have been watching Barbara in the Pacific and her projected path is to go over Mexico. What's the chance of the low hanging in there and doing something in the GOM?
drak -


Not if that front keeps shearing the tops off those thunderstorms. You can't have much of a storm without clouds.
Posted By: StormJunkie at 3:47 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Drak, I did not say anything about S Fla not getting some good rains and you are correct. If it goes over the Tampa area then you will likely get some of the heaviest rains, but I think the left side of your cone is the most likely scenario as to where the center goes.

Right now the Center is just W of 85 and is starting to wrap some cloud cover in as it passes over some warm waters that are pretty deep. Shear is still ripping at it and making it appear to move more easterly then it is.


i think that the current shear will be able to make for a short-lived tropical depression. Heaviest rain in south Florida looks at that nice squall line approaching the key. It doesn't matte where this sytem goes i will be in it, because i am driving up to kentucky tommorrow So it hould make for a rainy trip!
to be honest I disagree with the track, but nothing wrong with having your own oppinion, I think it will head more for either my area(Tampa bay area) or eastern panhandle, thats where model consensus has consolidated, and thats where the most consistent models have shown it going like the NAMM before it even formed a couple days ago.
weatherbrat- Slim to none, once it goes over land, and reaches the GOM it will already have degenerated to a remnant low, and shear is forecast to remain high in the GOM... So it's not likely.
Posted By: highndry1 at 4:11 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

drak -


Not if that front keeps shearing the tops off those thunderstorms. You can't have much of a storm without clouds.


i know that. I am talking about the trajectory and current thunderstorm that have persisted throughtout the day today and have expanded to the north and south.
yay!!!! we finally get some rain!
Jedkins- LOL.. Do you see the radar? It really doesn't matter where it goes. The Disturbance has massive rain and it's not isolated, it's ubiquitous. There will be no "landfall" it's just a massive area of precipitation moving generally east north eastward.. That's what it is.
Posted By: Jedkins at 4:11 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

to be honest I disagree with the track, but nothing wrong with having your own oppinion, I think it will head more for either my area(Tampa bay area) or eastern panhandle, thats where model consensus has consolidated, and thats where the most consistent models have shown it going like the NAMM before it even formed a couple days ago.


models are not 100% and the current motion indicates the line that i have placed. Regardless of where the low makes "Landfall" heavy Thunderstorm activity would extend all the way to the Keys.
Well said jed, and I agree it looks to me to be Tampa or N. Also many of the models still show the 200-850mb shear weakening over the system through time. The GFDL actually seems to bring it to it's strongest just off the OBX.
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 11:53 AM EDT on June 01, 2007.
it hit northern borward and wasn;t a major hurricane when it did hit broward


Wilma went over my house in West Palm.

Wilma's eye was 50 miles wide.
The eye or eyewall covered all
of Broward and Palm Beach Counties.
Drak -



I'm reloading to take a current view of the thing (although my browser is reloading like old men pee, SLOWLY) but from what I saw the COC-type-thing is already in a high shear environment.
Posted By: HurricaneFCast at 4:14 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Jedkins- LOL.. Do you see the radar? It really doesn't matter where it goes. The Disturbance has massive rain and it's not isolated, it's ubiquitous. There will be no "landfall" it's just a massive area of precipitation moving generally east north eastward.. That's what it is.

yes thank you for seeing this. We are not talking about where it will make landfall necessarily but where the heaviest rain will occur.
navy site says winds for 92L has 30kt winds and 1005mb this would make make it TD 2 i give it 5% ch at TS
South of Jamaica. What is that one?
Posted By: highndry1 at 4:16 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Drak -



I'm reloading to take a current view of the thing (although my browser is reloading like old men pee, SLOWLY) but from what I saw the COC-type-thing is already in a high shear environment.

Those clouds ave persisted in that enviroment throughtout the day i don't need weather maps. I said a small chance for development. Regardless of that most of Florida will be impacted, especially south Florida. (jeez hate when i have to repeat myself)
StormHype -


ROTFLMAO!!!!! Thanks for making my day!
Jedkins, thanks for the response. I'm eagerly awaiting the wind shift that will bring this in! I swear I can hear my yard and plants whimpering ...
This isn't a Central FL landfall. It'll be FL panhandle or the big bend.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:17 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

navy site says winds for 92L has 30kt winds and 1005mb this would make make it TD 2 i give it 5% ch at TS


i agree with that. South of Jamaica is jsut a swirl.
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 4:18 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

This isn't a Central FL landfall. It'll be FL panhandle or the big bend.

we are not talking about Landfall...Just impact. I still disagree with the models...
lol you guys might want to study this thing a little better before you try and nab me, most of the heavy rain will be on the east side, thats where the deep convection is, the rest is stratiform rain, if this moves over south Florida, rainfall amounts will be light in north Florida, and only moderate in central Florida.


Remember this thing may have some characterists like a TC, it is notr one, it still has frontal definition with stratiform rain on its north side above the warm front and deep convection below that on the east side.

So study it a little more, on east panhandle landfall will bring so much more rain due to the heavy rain fetch on th east side compared to a south Florida landfall
The difference in that center crossing S Fla and Central to N Fla will make a huge difference in how much rain N Fla and Ga get folks, that is why I think it matters where the well defined center ends up. and as amiga said earlier, N Fla needs the fresh water in order to supply it to much of S fla. Not to mention the damn fires need to go out.

That said, all evidence poitn to a NNE or N motion as of right now.
navy site says winds for 92L has 30kt winds and 1005mb this would make make it TD 2 i give it 5% ch at TS


jp look in the bold on what i said
Drak -



You're absolutely right. This thing has remained relatively well composed even though it's been in a crazy shear environment and it's a lot like Wilma or Alberto last year. Like the NHC said, it won't take much to give this thing a name. I just don't see it happening now that the center has pushed into the GOM. I was thinking last night that the center would reform south of Cuba and if so it would definitely get a name by now. However, in looking at it now I see that all those thunderstorms are getting ripped apart and scattered across the Mason-Dixon line.
Maybe a STD or EXTD Taz?

Is the flight still on and when will we get some data?
270. FLBoy
There are widely scattered reports of Virga all over south FL this morning. Radar is showing light rain and nothing is hitting the ground. So, y'all don't believe everything you are seeing on radar unless you start seeing a more colorful scope.
Link

buoy
Well were getting rain in broward right now. So no virga going on here FLBoy.
little OT:

Any of you have a link that has an animated image of the atlantic or GOM that can be viewed on a cell phone?

All sites I found require java and dont animate on my phone. I did found a radar site that is animated but it doesnt zoom out.
Anything on the Atlantic or GOM would be nice to have... ??

Any ideas?
navy site says winds for 92L has 30kt winds and 1005mb this would make make it TD 2 i give it 5% ch at TS

Not exactly. Just because an Noreaster has a surface low and 50 mph winds doesn't mean its a storm.
: StormJunkie where is evere one geting that this will be a STD this is no where neare STD this would be a TD so you can put the STD out the window if this dos be come some n it would be a TD be come it has a T # of 1.0 noted it dos not say ST T # 1.0
Jedkins... No. LOL. Nice try, but the Disturbance is so Broad right now that it will soak the Entire state no matter where it goes. Just look at the radar Jed.
Please do me that favor. There's no way this is an isolated downpour. Just Look. If i knew how to post animated radar loops i would but i'm HTML-retarded. Lol.

There's no circulation as of now Jed, There's no "East Side" of the storm. It's an extremely large area of rainfall. If you tell me how to post radar images or loops i'll show you. I'm not trying to be rude Jed, btw, please don't take it personally, I just want a little more reality. Why does everyone compete over where storms will landfall? We can't be optimistic about anything anymore.. Usually people who live in Tampa say it will go towards Tampa, and people Who live in Miami, Say it's going to Miami. Why does it matter? We ALL need the rain desperately and we will all get the rain.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 4:25 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

i know what you said taz

what 92L is isnt as important as where it makes landfall as SJ said, Im seeing the center; which has become better defined today, its wobbling between N and NNE, but most of you who are seeing a N Florida landfall are just taking its current motion and extrapolating that out to landfall, I think with current steering as it moves further north it will get pulled more NE before it hits land right around the Tampa area


yes with the heaviest rainfall in central and south Florida. Just look at the animated loop guys NE motion. Also note that nice line of heavy thunderstorm activity. IMHO if that line remains that way or strengthens we could some isolated power outages. Don't want to dramatize the situation though..
I agree with you JP, I think a "landfall" around Tampa would be reasonable.
Still a South Florida storm jphurricane. Everybody always thinks its initially heading towards Tampa like people thought Wilma would or Charley. They always get steered east into S. Florida or hit the west track towards the panhandle.
30 Knot winds are hardly Tropical Depression strength, not to mention there is no obvious circulation. Wishcasters will say there is, however.
Latest GFS shows it coming on shore around St. Pete/Tampa area and exiting around Daytona.

You can find many of the forecast model pages from here.
Am I the only one seeing the COC moving to the NW as the sheer is forcing its convection off to the east?
yes hurricanefcast is right and my line is near Tampa even though i live in Palm Beach county i a trying to look at this realistically. I am gonnna go now guy i should be back within three hours.
like hello 30kt is 35mph winds wish would make it a TD whats this wait and see
what the nhc finds today
JP- No one is right. Is it June 4th yet? It hasn't even started progressing towards a "Landfall", and i use that term very loosely. It will not make a difference where it makes "Landfall". You can mark my words and tell me i'm wrong IF i'm wrong AFTERWORDS.
Until then, everyone is innocent until proven guilty.
291. 0741
tonight | Barometer Bob Show will be about start of season you call in and ask question doing show here is link to show | Barometer Bob Show and we have chatroom too were talking about 92l wait for plane report> http://irc.hurricanehollow.org that too chatroom you all welcome to come we wont bite
jp, the difference between Tampa and Fort Lauderdale is pretty big for the folks in N fla and Ga imho. The left side will be much drier then the right.

HFC, what are you talking about? There is a very clear center to the system. Please check the visable sat imagery. Speed it up if you need to, it will make the center easier to see.

I have a feeling that within the next 2 weeks the ITCZ is gonna try to spin something up around the West Caribbean.
JPhurricane, the system is WSW of Key West, not this due east stuff, and based on history and the steering currents observed on water vapor loop, this storm will most likely bend to the east.
Link to Southeast Radar

Rain stretches from South of New Orleans all the way to the Bahamas.. Please don't tell me the ENTIRE state will not be soaked. Just look. Myopia is not an option here, be open-minded.
Whoever said that 92L is TD 02-L becasue of the strength of it's winds and low pressure is absolutly WRONG!!!!
300. 0741
Link that to show and this for chatroom Link
Here is the Center

Here is the Center
Yes HFC, it will, but that is because the system is going to move N of St Pete. That is my point.
SJ- That's what i needed to see. I can definitely see a partial center now. It isn't a closed COC but it's a COC nonetheless. I Apologize for my assertions if they were at all offending. I would still not call it a "Well-Defined" center in terms of a normal Tropical System, But there is definitely a center. SORRY SJ. Thanks for the image thundercloud.

I still see no correlation between "Landfall" and who gets the rain. I still strongly believe in my opinion that it will not matter where it goes, the ENTIRE state is in for some much needed rain. I don't like the fact that people are so myopic that they assert that this is a "South Florida" system. That's completely inane. Anyways, My Apologies again.
The low pressure system doesn't look like much. The good news is that the models keep shifting the path further norh where the rain is most needed. Right now is looks like the center of the system will go over Gainesville. A couple of new fires broke out on Wednesday near Gainesville so hopefully this will slam the door on fire season for some areas.

Everyone wants to guess where the landfall is going to be. Here is another contest, what will the lake level of Lake ochechobee be next Friday? I think it was at 8.94 ft yesterday. I read where the lake levels went up 1 1/2 ft after Ernesto came through last year. I am thinking that we may see it go up to 10.5 - 11 ft.
this system looks like my head on a bad hair day.
Wow there the power just flickered off at my house.
308. FLBoy
Best track right now:


The center is clearly defined however it has no convection see my picture above
Good to see ya TS2

TS2, not if it does have a closed low level center, which it appear to be tr4ying to develop per visable...

Statement as of 4:00 am HST on June 01, 2007

For the central North Pacific...between 140w and 180

no tropical cyclones are expected through the next 48 hours.
$$
312. MahFL
Looks like the coc is heading NNW lol......
Does anybody see some of the convection trying to fire up on the NW side of the center now?
SJ- That's what i needed to see. I can definitely see a partial center now. It isn't a closed COC but it's a COC nonetheless. I Apologize for my assertions if they were at all offending. I would still not call it a "Well-Defined" center in terms of a normal Tropical System, But there is definitely a center. SORRY SJ. Thanks for the image thundercloud.

I still see no correlation between "Landfall" and who gets the rain. I still strongly believe in my opinion that it will not matter where it goes, the ENTIRE state is in for some much needed rain. I don't like the fact that people are so myopic that they assert that this is a "South Florida" system. That's completely inane. Anyways, My Apologies again.
I see several LL rotations/swirls

27.3N 88.1W
23.0N 87.6W
24.1N 85.0W
20.0N 84.0W

looks like chaos
Good to see you too SJ

That is what it is trying to develop but i would think it will make landfall before it does that.

My Temperature is at the lowest high point it has been in 3 days and the Humidity is High...It's coming!!1

College Park
Orlando, FL
Updated: 13 minutes ago (History)
Elevation: 104 ft / 32 m
Temperature: 71.0 F / 21.7 C
Dew Point: 66.9 F / 19.4 C
Humidity: 87%
Wind:South at 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h /

Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h /

The Pressure is around 1017 hPa and falling.

The Rain is working it's way up

d
Please.. Will this support my opinion that not only will South Florida see significant and much needed rain fall, but that Central and North will also see much needed rainfall?
hmmm. Florida will finally get some heavy rains from our carribbian disturbance which certainly is good news. BUT, what will happen with our disturbance as it re-emerges off the southeast coast? Will it gather enough strengh to become T.S.Barry? Not totally out of the question,and certainly with a funnel boundry draped along the New England Coast,New England will certainly be in store for some heavy rains and gusty winds...perhaps more...Stay tuned
Thunderstorm2- Is there anyway you can tell me how to post NWS Radar Images and Loops to the blog?
Thanks HFC.

Mah, it may have wobbled a little N, but as HFC said the center is not anywhere near perfect, so it could just be a little disorganized and deceiving.

12z model runs should be out soon. Find them on the first link under models on the Quick Links page.
HFC, I can't do that either. I only know how to post WU Radar images, Sorry
Posted By: HurricaneFCast at 4:51 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.
Please.. Will this support my opinion that not only will South Florida see significant and much needed rain fall, but that Central and North will also see much needed rainfall?


No one is disagreeing with that HFC, only that if it had come in further S and run across S Fla then there would have been less rain fall for the northern portions of Fla.
Take a good look on the visible presentation, the sear has relaxed in all quadrants! The troph bearing down from the northwest has washed out. Further development in now in progress. In fact, the COC looks better and more establish in the last two frames. TS by the 5pm advisory by NHC. Anyone share my thoughts?
Still doesn't look like its going to rain an inch here. Dry as can be here. I hope i'm wrong! We really need it.
JP- NO NO NO.. Lol that's the wrong level of steering currents.
JP The Currents you posted are for Sytems with Under 940mb. LOL This thing is >1000... The one I posted is relevant.
JPhurricane, what are you doing man? hahaha
334. IKE
NEW BLOG!
You can definitely see a COC just NW of cuba now.
may not be lower level, but the storm is trying to spin up.
Still no rain in Tampa


Looks like we have "half" a doughnut, and from my views, seems head "almost" due north, maybe slightly east of north.....

will be interesting to see if we can get further wrap around.......
Not seeing the New blog
Check out the recent observations from the Keys. Winds not too far from TS force. Most of the wind gusts at the Keys and Miami are between 30-35mph with sustained winds between 25-30mph





City Sky/Wx Tmp DP RH Wind Pres Remarks
Key West International HVY RAIN 75 72 88 E21G26 Kts 29.90S SB 1/4
Boca Chica NAS HVY RAIN n/a n/a n/a E21G26 Kts 29.90S
Marathon Airport HVY RAIN 75 72 88 E14G25 Kts 29.92S OG
Key Largo Handar not avbl
Miami International Light Rain 72 66 81 E12 Kts 29.98F
Miami Beach n/a n/a n/a n/a E20G28 Kts N/A

CWOP Weather Round Up
City Time (UTC) Tmp DP RH Wind (mph) Pres
Cudjoe Key 15:58 76 74 93 E16 G24 1012.4
Islamorada 16:01 74 72 94 E13 G20 1012.9

Marine Observations Across Keys Waters as of 1200 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007
CMAN Time (UTC) Temp Water Temp Wind Pres
Sand Key Light 1500 76 1012.9F
Sombrero Key Light 1500 76 83 E 26 G28 Kts 1012.4F
Long Key Light 1500 75 76 E 21 G24 Kts 1013.0F
Molasses Reef Light 1500 75 80 E 23 G26 Kts N/A
Fowey Rocks 1500 75 79 E 22 G23 Kts 1015.4R
Pulaski Shoal Light 1500 76 E 26 G30 Kts 1011.2F



Anyone think Barbara will make it to the gulf?
Look like a big bend landfall
In my opinion.. i think lake okeechobee needs the rain the most
it hasn't stopped raining here for like an hour...... its a moderate rain
NEW BLOG
Im not sure if anyone posted this ..but look ..this is for my area and much of south florida :


Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1251 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

FLZ071>075-172>174-011745-
MAINLAND MONROE FL-INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY FL-
1251 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS APPROACHING SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM ATLANTIC WATERS...

AT 1248 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
7 MILES NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO 7 MILES EAST MIAMI BEACH TO 15 MILES EAST
OF HOMESTEAD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. THIS LINE WILL AFFECT
MIAMI-DADE...SOUTHERN BROWARD...AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES
DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF OF THESE STRONG SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS WITH THE SHOWERS BECOME
ANY STRONGER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.
It doesnt matter if the COC crosses over gainesville or the north because all of the heavy moisture is in the east quatrain, and thats the rain thats hitting us in Miami. It is very heavy rain!!!
anyone have the latest model runs please. I am at work hard to look for . Thank you
This is no tropical system. It's 66F here in Bradenton FL and the rain is miserably COLD. Wilma Jr has turned 100% cold-core.