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Nature's thermometers say spring is springing earlier by 3 days per decade

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:31 PM GMT on March 29, 2013

In a welcome sign of spring, Washington DC's famous cherry trees are beginning to burst into bloom, with the peak bloom predicted to come around April 5. This is two weeks behind last year's peak bloom date of March 20, which was the third earliest on record, according the Capital Weather Gang at the Washington Post. The only earlier bloom dates in the National Park Service's 92-year record dating back to 1921 were March 15, 1990 and March 17, 2000. The average bloom date is April 4, and the latest bloom date on record was April 18, 1958.


Figure 1. Cherry blossoms on March 21, 2012, in Washington D.C. Image credit: wunderphotographer KEM.

Nature's thermometers are reacting to global warming
Flowering cherry trees are excellent "natural thermometers" that give evidence that the climate is warming. Their flowering time is highly sensitive to temperatures in February and March. Last year's early bloom was triggered by the record-warm "Summer in March" temperatures that gave DC its warmest March on record. February and March temperatures in Washington D.C. have warmed by nearly 3°F over the past century, causing the city's famous cherry trees to bloom, on average, five days earlier than they did in 1921. The earlier blooming times of D.C.'s cherry trees are part of a global trend towards earlier spring blooms. A 2007 study by Parmesan et al. found that Northern Hemisphere spring events such as flowering times, bird and butterfly migrations, and frog breeding times have been occurring an average of 2.8 days per decade earlier in spring since the 1950s, averaged over all species.


Figure 2. Average temperatures in Northeast Virginia, including the northwestern suburbs of Washington D.C., have warmed by nearly 3°F over the past century. Temperatures in 2012 were the warmest on record. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 3. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades that the United States Department of Agriculture decided in 2012 to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. The map is based on the average annual minimum winter temperature, divided into 10°F zones. Compared to the 1990 version, zone boundaries in the new 2012 edition of the map have generally shifted one 5°F half-zone warmer than the previous map throughout much of the United States. This is mostly a result of using temperature data from a longer and more recent time period. The old 1990 map was based on temperature data from only a 13-year period of 1974-1986, while the new map uses data from the 30-year period 1976-2005. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation

The forecast: DC's cherry trees blooming in early March by 2080?
Using a computer model of spring bloom driven by the expected climate of this century from climate models, a 2011 paper by Chung et al. predicted that peak bloom of Washington D.C.'s cherry trees will come five days earlier by 2050, and ten days earlier by 2080, assuming a middle-of-the-road climate change scenario called A1B. However, carbon dioxide emissions are at record high levels, and humankind is currently on a path likely to cause much greater warming. Under a higher emission scenario, the authors predict that by 2080, the cherry trees will bloom in early March, nearly a full month earlier (29 days) than at present. One major concern the authors point out: shorter and warmer winters can reduce the cold hardening of trees, leaving them vulnerable to frost injury.


Figure 4. Past and projected peak bloom dates of the Yoshino cherry trees in Washington, DC and surrounding areas. The future projections were made under the IPCC middle-of-the-road emission scenario A1B (middle panel) and high emissions scenario A2 (right panel.) Humanity is currently burning oil, coal, and natural gas at a rate that puts us closer to the high emissions scenario. Image credit: Chung et al., 2011, "Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change", PLoS ONE 6(11): e27439. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0027439

Unusual winter jet stream patterns tied to Arctic sea ice loss may slow down cherry tree blooming changes
However, the authors' cherry tree bloom model did not take into account the fact that unusual jet stream contortions in winter have become increasingly common in recent years, increasing the odds of cold winters over the Eastern U.S. According to a March 2013 paper by Tang et al., "Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss", wintertime Arctic sea ice loss can cause an increase in unusual jet stream patterns capable of bringing cold, snowy weather to the Eastern U.S., Western Europe, and East Asia. They theorized that sea ice loss in the Arctic promotes more evaporation, resulting in earlier snowfall in Siberia and other Arctic lands. The earlier snow insulates the soil, allowing the land to cool more rapidly. This results in a southwards shift of the jet stream and builds higher atmospheric pressures farther to the south, which increases the odds of cold spells and blocking high pressure systems that can cause extended periods of unusually cold and snowy weather in the Eastern U.S., Western Europe, and East Asia. Climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf has an intriguing blog post (translated from the German by Eli Rabbett) that shows a dramatic agreement between temperature and pressure patterns during March 2013, and those expected to occur as a result of Arctic sea ice loss. He concludes, "In my view, the above studies provide strong evidence for a link between Arctic ice loss due to global warming, more frequent winter high pressure air masses, especially over the Atlantic-European part of the Arctic, and an associated influx of cold air to Europe." With Arctic sea ice expected to steadily dwindle in the coming decades, there may be an increase in cold February and March temperatures in the Eastern U.S. that will slow down the shift in cherry tree bloom times.

References
Chung et al., 2011, "Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change", PLoS ONE 6(11): e27439. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0027439

Parmesan, 2007, “Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming”, Glob. Change Biol. 13, 1860–1872

Root, T. L. et al., 2005, "Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution", Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 102, 7465–7469.

Related posts
From Heat Wave to Snowstorms, March Goes to Extremes by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central
Extreme jet stream causing record warmth in the east, record cold in the west (January 2013)
Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns (April 2012)
Our extreme weather: Arctic changes to blame? (December 2011)
New USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners shows a warming climate (February 2012)

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on April Fool's Day, appropriate for the occasion.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The very last thing that people in Joplin need to see right now.Good looking wall cloud by the way. Happy Easter everyone.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wall cloud outside of Joplin, Missouri about 15 minutes ago:


Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


We're on the south side of the island. Got a good pour yesterday for about 20 minutes. Then a few hours ago the winds really picked up and it rained for about 10 minutes. That's really been it over here.

That's not to say that the other parts didn't get any. It's just missing our area of the island.

Oh, and yes, I do have a picnic for 30 people tomorrow so that ought to do the trick, don't you think?

-L


That always happens when you have an outdoor activity. Good luck with that.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
The very last thing that people in Joplin need to see right now. Happy Easter everyone.



same to you...welcome to the blog
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Are you in SE Texas?
Nop Texas looks cool and I would like to visit but its too Dry imo, I would prefer some state like Hawaii because it has a lot of rain,I live in Honduras.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


don't let that dissuade you... any tropical wave going to our countries can cause a lot of trouble, they don't have to be designated tropical cyclones
I know that cold front that came early this week was a prime example.
Quoting allancalderini:
Nop Texas looks cool and I would like to visit but its too Dry imo, I would prefer some state like Hawaii because it has a lot of rain,I live in Honduras.I know that cold front that came early this week was a prime example.


Good to know that you are in Central America.Let's see how things evolve in the SW Caribbean and EPAC and see if systems may affect that country.


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


same to you...welcome to the blog
Thank you. I've actually been reading this blog since Hurricane Season 2010. I can't wait for hurricane season 2013 to start
;).
Quoting Tornado6042008X:


Thank you. I've actually been reading this blog since Hurricane Season 2010. I can't wait for hurricane season 2013 to start
;).


I did the same thing...waited 4 years until actually becoming a member...idk why.
Same here I want to get up tomorrow thinking is June 1... lol
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I did the same thing...waited 4 years until actually becoming a member...idk why.
Same here I want to get up tomorrow thinking is June 1... lol


I waited longer than that! haha But, it wouldn't let me for a while. Can't remember what browser I was on, but gave probs so just didn't bother for so very long
Quoting allancalderini:
Nop Texas looks cool and I would like to visit but its too Dry imo, I would prefer some state like Hawaii because it has a lot of rain,I live in Honduras.


Hawaii is a beautiful place to live in with warm but calm weather and some rain mainly on windward sides. Hawaii receives lots of rain during the winter months.
Quoting Civicane49:


Hawaii is a beautiful place to live in with warm but calm weather and some rain mainly on windward sides. Hawaii receives lots of rain during the winter months.


Something I did not know about Hawaii...
There is bamboo there... really odd when I heard about it...

Hawaii is great. I want to go to Waikiki beach one day
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Something I did not know about Hawaii...
There is bamboo there... really odd when I heard about it...

Hawaii is great. I want to to to Waikiki beach one day


Bamboos are believed to have been originated from China, and many Chinese immigrant workers had come to Hawaii in the mid-1800s to earn more money there by working out in the sugar cane fields. They brought bamboos, along with other plants.

Anyway, Hawaii is a great place to live in. I'm sure you'll enjoy going there someday.
Time to Bail - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Sleep Well - Hope for Spring - Hang in There.....
A weakening cold front is now between the islands of Kauai and Oahu. Conditions should become drier and cooler for the islands by tomorrow and through the middle of next week.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT SAT MAR 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ATOKA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARDVILLE...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STRINGTOWN...DAISY...LANE...MCGEE CREEK LAKE...CHOCKIE...REDDEN
AND ATOKA RESERVOIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE DAMAGING HAIL IS LIKELY. TAKE SHELTER NOW IN A STURDY BUILDING
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO WARNING. GET TO A
STORM SHELTER OR STURDY BUILDING IF A TORNADO APPROACHES.
The remains of Invest 90S are lingering on the Northern Territory of Australia. Flooding is still a major risk in this area with prolonged periods of rain.



There's a lot of moisture in the equatorial Indian Ocean. In fact, this is where the upward pulse of the MJO taking place right now in this part of the world. The abundant moisture helped aid in the development of a tropical disturbance, which is now classified as Invest 91S. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical cyclone in the next several days and slowly moves southeastward, then turns southwestward and later recurves before hitting the islands east of Madagascar. Another cyclone might develop behind it.

Just wanted to let the blog know that I made it home after a 11 hour drive back to Nashville, TN from Harrisburg, PA.

^That took a while to write, so sleepy here.

Happy Easter Sunday everyone.
Quoting Astrometeor:
Just wanted to let the blog know that I made it home after a 11 hour drive back to Nashville, TN from Harrisburg, PA.

^That took a while to write, so sleepy here.

Happy Easter Sunday everyone.


Happy Easter to you too.
From the NWS Honolulu:

AT 709 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL ALONG WITH STRONG LOCALIZED WINDS OF 34 KNOTS OR GREATER 9
NM EAST OF FAD BUOY A...OR ABOUT 46 NM SOUTH OF HILO...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS.
SPC is forecasting a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi in the Day 1 convective outlook:

NOAA Declares 'Unusual Mortality Event'

Sea lion pups starving to death in California.

BBC Link
Quoting yonzabam:
NOAA Declares 'Unusual Mortality Event'

Sea lion pups starving to death in California.

BBC Link


I wish NOAA would take over the investigation of our 80 dead manatees in the Indian River lagoon...FWC hid the deaths for some 7 months
Happy Easter everyone, I'm off to pick shrimp!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Happy Easter everyone, I'm off to pick shrimp!
Good Morning!..and a Happy Easter to you!
Good Morning and Happy Easter everyone!..........
7 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area...........
so far no BIG rain event,models must have changed...
Good morning and Happy Easter to all.

A wet Sunday is on tap for PR with flash flooding probable but things dry out on Monday and continue that way for most of the week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST SUN MAR 31 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER TROF WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
MON WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TUE AND STRENGTHEN THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES JUST ABOVE 2.0 INCHES
LOCATED OVER ST. CROIX THIS MORNING WILL BE AIMED TOWARD ERN PR
LATER TODAY ON STRENGTHENING ESE WINDS. THIS TO RESULT IN A SHORT
BUT INTENSE PERIOD OF OROGRAPHIC RAINS OVR ERN PR SPECIFICALLY THE
CAYEY AND LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN SEEM LIKELY. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME FLASH
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ESPECIALLY AROUND EL YUNQUE
WHERE RIVERS ARE SHORT IN LENGTH. BY THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED NWWD INTO THE ATLC OCEAN WITH SHARP
DRYING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT IS
OVER BY 00Z MON.

WORK WEEK...MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVR THE REGION
AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH TIME. 850 AND 800 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE QUITE LARGE MON AND TUE AND REALLY DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES ALSO SOAR BY WED AND THU AND EXPECT
TO BE BACK IN THE 90S. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY DUE TO A STRONG PRES
GRADIENT. SO DRASTIC CHANGES FROM COOL WET TODAY TO MUCH WARMER
AND DRYER MON AND TUE. ANY PLACES THAT DO NOT RECEIVE OR RECEIVE
VERY LITTLE RAIN WILL HAVE A SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT MOST OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS SEEMS TO BE MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST PR.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTIPLE CLD LYRS/NMRS SHRA TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES WITH
OCNL OBSCD MTNS. OVERALL VFR WITH PDS MVFR/ISOLD IFR IN SHRA. COND
IMPVG ON MON. LLVL WIND BLO FL100 E-ESE 13-25 KT CONT MON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 6 TO 7 FT TODAY BUT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE
OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS STAY UP


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 84 74 / 80 50 10 10
STT 83 75 86 75 / 70 40 0 10
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 70
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 AM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 510 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TEXARKANA
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSIFYING AND INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL
CONTINUE IN STRONGER CELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALSO INCREASING...ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
AHEAD OF IT AFTER DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.


...KERR
Quoting indianrivguy:


I wish NOAA would take over the investigation of our 80 dead manatees in the Indian River lagoon...FWC hid the deaths for some 7 months


I did some research on manatees after reading your post. I already knew a bit about them. Found myself getting drawn into the fascinating story of Steller's sea cow. 30 feet long, and weighing 10 tons, their range once stretched from California to Alaska and Japan.

Indigenous people hunted them to near extinction, then Europeans came along and finished the job. Or did they? Apparently there are still 'sightings'. But, then, there are still sightings of Bigfoot.

Makes you wonder, though.
Happy Easter everyone, I'm off to work now!:) have a good day!!:)
Quoting indianrivguy:
Happy Easter everyone, I'm off to pick shrimp!

You have a shrimp tree ?

:):))

Happy Easter to all.
Any Easter eggs found around here need to be eaten right away or put into the fridge.
93F and Chocolate is a bad combination......
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (KFWS) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Fort Smith, AR (KSRX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Happy Easter Bloggers! 6z GFS shows the potential gulf coast storm moving up the east coast Thursday night through Saturday. It looks like it will be all rain for once in my area if this does take place...LOL. But it could be cold enough for some decent snowfall once it reaches New England... if it happens.
Big time rain for all of FL next week!!:)
06z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS


Stay safe out there if you are going to church services in and especially to the east of Dallas, TX. A line of severe thunderstorms will contiune to move through NE Texas over the next few hours from NNW to SSE.
Quoting pottery:

You have a shrimp tree ?

:):))

Happy Easter to all.
Any Easter eggs found around here need to be eaten right away or put into the fridge.
93F and Chocolate is a bad combination......


Goes for tree shrimp too??..Lol.. :)
NWS Mobile/ Pensacola..





551. etxwx
The Easter Egg Hunt Prediction Center is predicting five eggs in your basket: 4 decorated and 1 major.
Happy Easter everyone!


April Showers.............................
RSOE/ EDIS Epidemic Alert

Sunday, 31st March 2013 :: 13:25:41 UTC

Epidemic Hazard in Pakistan on Thursday, 28 March, 2013 at 04:00 (04:00 AM) UTC.

Link

At least 12 children have died because of measles in North Waziristan and Timergara, Lower Dir, while a large number are said to be infected. The exact number of deaths and those infected with measles in North Waziristan could not be ascertained because of the curfew imposed since the suicide attack on Esha check post, which claimed the lives of 17 security personnel and wounded 40 others. However, reports from the troubled region indicate two children from Dossali and Lora Mandi died due to the unavailability of medicines on Tuesday. They have been identified as four-year-old Haseena Bibi and seven year-old Wahidullah, while several children are stranded in their houses without treatment. Requesting anonymity, a doctor from Agency Headquarters Hospital, told The Express Tribune the hospital had been closed for the past three days and all patients were told to go home as soon as the curfew was announced. “We do not know how many children have died and how many are in critical condition as no one is allowed to visit the hospital right now,” the doctor said, adding that he himself was not allowed to go to work as announcements were made via local mosques that anyone spotted on the street would be shot on sight.
well it looks like the whole gulf coast from texas to florida is going to be seeing alot of rain and stormy weather for just about the whole week..stay alert and safe folks!
not moving too fast either..flooding concerns i bet...
friday still there,good thing this isnt July huh..
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SIMMS...NEW BOSTON...
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAGANSPORT...
NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
RED RIVER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CLARKSVILLE...BOXELDER...
NORTHERN TITUS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN LITTLE RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FOREMAN...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 815 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 21 MILES WEST OF FOREMAN TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLARKSVILLE
TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOGATA TO 8 MILES WEST OF BOGATA...OR ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES WEST OF FOREMAN TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CLARKSVILLE TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF CLARKSVILLE TO 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HAGANSPORT...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DE
KALB...WILKERSON...DALBY SPRINGS...US 259 AND I 30 INTERSECTION...
RICHMOND...SPRING HILL...HOOKS...REDWATER...NASH...MAUD AND
OGDEN...
Instructions: IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
Target Area:
Little River
RSOS/ EDIS Biological Alert

Sunday, 31st March 2013 :: 13:31:40 UTC

Biological Hazard in Madagascar on Thursday, 28 March, 2013 at 03:58 (03:58 AM) UT

Link

A severe plague of locusts has infested about half of Madagascar, threatening crops and raising concerns about food shortages, a UN agency says. The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) said billions of the plant-devouring insects could cause hunger for 60% of the population. About $22m (£14.5m) was urgently needed to fight the plague in a country where many people are poor, the FAO added. It was the worst plague to hit the island since the 1950s, the FAO said. FAO locust control expert Annie Monard told BBC Focus on Africa the plague posed a major threat to the Indian Ocean island. "The last one was in the 1950s and it had a duration of 17 years so if nothing is done it can last for five to 10 years, depending on the conditions," she said.
Quoting LargoFl:
friday still there,good thing this isnt July huh..


Thats moving really slow Largo..
If the GOM was warmer there would be trouble brewing..
Still might be trouble anyway..
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SIMMS...NEW BOSTON...
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAGANSPORT...
NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
RED RIVER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CLARKSVILLE...BOXELDER...
NORTHERN TITUS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN LITTLE RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FOREMAN...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 815 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 21 MILES WEST OF FOREMAN TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLARKSVILLE
TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOGATA TO 8 MILES WEST OF BOGATA...OR ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES WEST OF FOREMAN TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CLARKSVILLE TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF CLARKSVILLE TO 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HAGANSPORT...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DE
KALB...WILKERSON...DALBY SPRINGS...US 259 AND I 30 INTERSECTION...
RICHMOND...SPRING HILL...HOOKS...REDWATER...NASH...MAUD AND
OGDEN...
Instructions: IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
Target Area:
McCurtain
Quoting pcola57:


Thats moving really slow Largo..
If the GOM was warmer there would be trouble brewing..
Still might be trouble anyway..

well, at least its march(and not september)
Quoting LargoFl:
friday still there,good thing this isnt July huh..
I agree. Either way it looks like you may see inches of rain along with some severe weather come Thursday night through Friday morning.

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL HUNT COUNTY...

AT 833 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.
A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF HUNT COUNTY. THAT NEW WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
CAMPBELL AROUND 840 AM CDT...
COMMERCE AROUND 845 AM CDT...
LONE OAK AROUND 850 AM CDT...
Instructions:
Target Area:
Hunt
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL HUNT COUNTY...

AT 833 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.
A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF HUNT COUNTY. THAT NEW WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
CAMPBELL AROUND 840 AM CDT...
COMMERCE AROUND 845 AM CDT...
LONE OAK AROUND 850 AM CDT...
Quoting flcanes:

well, at least its march(and not september)


And a wacky weather March at that..
September will bring it's own troubles I'm sure..
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HUNT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN KAUFMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 828 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
ROCKWALL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
TERRELL AROUND 835 AM...
QUINLAN AROUND 845 AM...
Instructions: FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
Target Area:
Hunt
Kaufman
Quoting pcola57:


And a wacky weather March at that..
September will bring it's own troubles I'm sure..

well, its just how it goes
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SIMMS...NEW BOSTON...
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAGANSPORT...
NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
RED RIVER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CLARKSVILLE...BOXELDER...
NORTHERN TITUS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN LITTLE RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FOREMAN...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 815 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 21 MILES WEST OF FOREMAN TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLARKSVILLE
TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOGATA TO 8 MILES WEST OF BOGATA...OR ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES WEST OF FOREMAN TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF CLARKSVILLE TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF CLARKSVILLE TO 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HAGANSPORT...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DE
KALB...WILKERSON...DALBY SPRINGS...US 259 AND I 30 INTERSECTION...
RICHMOND...SPRING HILL...HOOKS...REDWATER...NASH...MAUD AND
OGDEN...
Instructions: IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
Target Area:
Bowie
Franklin
Morris
Red River
Titus
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DELTA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 816 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
COOPER LAKE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
COMO AROUND 835 AM...
Instructions: FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
Target Area:
Delta
Hopkins
Quoting flcanes:

well, its just how it goes


Good Luck this year..
little island mauritus in the indian ocean major flooding reported, stuck in a itz?
Quoting pcola57:


Good Luck this year..

I hope i can just escape without a Wilma or worse, here in FL.
(Perhaps though if florida slips into drought again, I would not mind another debby or two....)
Quoting flcanes:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DELTA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 816 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
COOPER LAKE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
COMO AROUND 835 AM...
Instructions: FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
Target Area:
Delta
Hopkins
More severe storms are possible in the southern half of Texas, much of Louisiana, SW Arkansas, and SW Mississippi later in the day. Stay alert, especially if you or your kids are on easter egghunts outside.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
I agree. Either way it looks like you may see inches of rain along with some severe weather come Thursday night through Friday morning.

thanks im watching this one closely for sure.
Nam for Monday.....................
Good morning everyone... Happy Easter
hope no severe but we can use the rain..GS be careful..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning everyone... Happy Easter
Happy Easter to you and yours
big line of severe thunderstorms rolling across there
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-311600-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1000 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.NOW...
A VERY NICE EASTER DAY

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING MORE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S
INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT THE COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES AT THE BEACHES. THE SURF TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE BUT IF YOU GO IN THE SURF SWIM NEAR LIFEGUARDS.

$$
wow still cold up there..............SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
912 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

WVZ501>503-311515-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-
912 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

.NOW...
AN OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWER COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TOUCH OF SLEET
ACROSS GRANT AND WESTERN MINERAL COUNTY THROUGH 11 AM. RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE A TRACE TO ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SLEET
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

$$

WITT
guess the weather this week is gonna be stormy....
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning everyone... Happy Easter
Good morning and a very happy easter to you as well!! How has the weather been where you live?
another strike at the Northeast

I hope everyone has a wonderful Easter... Remember, it's not just about the big bunny... . I will be spending the afternoon with my dear family. I will be back to my ol' sarcastic self tomorrow...LOL... Take care
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Good morning and a very happy easter to you as well!! How has the weather been where you live?

Hi and thanks,
well, gotta say I can't complain of the warmth that arrived here. Nearly 60F yesterday and expecting over 60F tomorrow.

Here in NYC has been cold until early last week when it finally began warming up and with nice clear skies. How about at your place?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well, gotta say I can't complain of the warmth that arrived here. Nearly 60F yesterday and expecting over 60F tomorrow.

There in NYC has been cold until early last week when it finally began warming up and with nice clear skies. How about at your place?
Finally warming up here for the short term at least with the exact same temperatures for yesterday and tomorrow for my place as in NYC. It was very nice to go running outside this morning with the temperature being over 40F for once since I always run in shorts. It also looks like its finally going to warm up for the longer term in my area starting next week. I am in Herndon, VA by the way, just outside of Washington DC:).
I probably won't be on most of today so I want to wish everyone a Happy Easter!!!! I hope everybody has a great day today
would you take this with a big smile tomorrow...although, hmm, yeah, it's Monday



DC Mid 60s, Philly Low 60s and I expect NYC, western Long Island and Coastal Conn to reach 60F
Upper 50s for interior Conn

I'll be mapping this later today


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
would you take this with a big smile tomorrow...although, hmm, yeah, it's Monday



DC Mid 60s, Philly Low 60s and I expect NYC, eastern Long Island and Coastal Conn to reach 60F
Upper 50s for interior Conn

I'll be mapping this later today
Yes I will take this with a smile:).
596. txjac
Quoting LargoFl:
well it looks like the whole gulf coast from texas to florida is going to be seeing alot of rain and stormy weather for just about the whole week..stay alert and safe folks!


I will so love this ...maybe it will rain for hours instead of the quick storms that have been running by in the past. You guys/gals in Florida stay safe too

Happy Easter to all my WU family
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Good morning and a very happy easter to you as well!! How has the weather been where you live?


Looks like the rain wants to miss Centex.. but that means all-day easter egg hunts! Even adults with hard to find eggs, with the kids telling you if you're warm, cold, hot!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
big line of severe thunderstorms rolling across there
Severe Thunderstorm Warning now includes Shreveport, LA! Please stay safe church goers, egghunters, and anyone in the path of these storms. 
Good morning Pensacola...happy Easter
Happy Easter everyone! :)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning Pensacola...happy Easter


Good Morning and a very Happy Easter to you too Max
Looks like your weather is fantastic..
I'm in for some rain..
But it's all good.. :)
Happy Easter to All from the West Coast.



Just burning off here. 57.1 and crisp....
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning and a very Happy Easter to you too Max
Looks like your weather is fantastic..
I'm in for some rain..
But it's all good.. :)


Thanks, actually it's going to rain here this afternoon into overnight..
:(

same here, it's all good as well
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Thanks, actually it's going to rain here this afternoon into overnight..
:(

same here, it's all good as well


Well rain for us both then..
Good thing I waterproofed my picnic table that I built day before yesterday..
So I'm ready.. :)
Quoting pcola57:


Well rain for us both then..
Good thing I waterproofed my picnic top that I built day before yesterday..
So I'm ready.. :)

LOL!!!

enjoy the "dry" meal...
607. etxwx
I really hope they aren't kidding about our rain chances here in East Texas. Every thing seems to go around us. Not bad temps for the week though - I would like to postpone the mid eighty to ninety temps for a little while longer.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

LOL!!!

enjoy the "dry" meal...


LOL..
Guess it's inside we go..
When is your next map coming out?
Today?
Quoting etxwx:
I really hope they aren't kidding about our rain chances here in East Texas. Every thing seems to go around us. Not bad temps for the week though - I would like to postpone the mid eighty to ninety temps for a little while longer.


Know what you mean about the rain passing by without donating. Get that here a lot. Also, don't need the high temps right away. Let it wait till August...lol
610. etxwx
Quoting PedleyCA:


Know what you mean about the rain passing by without donating. Get that here a lot. Also, don't need the high temps right away. Let it wait till August...lol


The way things have been going, I'll be happy if we can just wait until mid-June to hit 90F. :)
611. txjac
Quoting etxwx:
I really hope they aren't kidding about our rain chances here in East Texas. Every thing seems to go around us. Not bad temps for the week though - I would like to postpone the mid eighty to ninety temps for a little while longer.


I'm with ya on postponing the 90's and above for as long as we can
Shreveport, LA (KSHV) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Fort Polk, LA (KPOE) - Base Reflectivity (0.5

Columbus AFB, MS (KGWX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)




Birmingham, AL (KBMX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Little Rock, AR (KLZK) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Quoting pcola57:


LOL..
Guess it's inside we go..
When is your next map coming out?
Today?


yes, later today... for the high temperatures in Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Before 2 PM it should be out.

I just had breakfast...since I got up at 10AM...
Exxon-Mobil tar sands pipeline ruptures. Neighborhood evacuated.

An Exxon Mobile underground pipeline ruptured in a Mayflower, Arkansas subdivision on Friday, forcing the evacuation of 40 homes and the closure of a section of I-40.



Clean up begins for Mayflower Oil Spill

It was a rough start to the Easter holiday weekend after an oil spill struck in Mayflower.

Quoting Xandra:
Exxon-Mobil tar sands pipeline ruptures. Neighborhood evacuated.

An Exxon Mobile underground pipeline ruptured in a Mayflower, Arkansas subdivision on Friday, forcing the evacuation of 40 homes and the closure of a section of I-40.



Clean up begins for Mayflower Oil Spill

It was a rough start to the Easter holiday weekend after an oil spill struck in Mayflower.



Thank You for posting those here....
thanks for that impressive report Xandra...

I just wouldn't be able to imagine oil coming out from underground onto my garden and down to the street... disastrous

the lake there is very important to keep clean
This couldnt happen in winter because???



Brings high winds






maybe light snow but mainly heavy rain mid atlantic / NE

At best 6" snow near boston


but plenty rain

GFS is also consistent with some sort of longrange 10 day severe wx threat.
623. Tygor
Rain for South Texas would be nice too, although I'm not buying into it. I know a lot of people are experiencing a ton of rain and snow throughout the country, but the drought is persistent here.
we have a vary rare sight risk for CA by the SPC
Still a big line of severe thunderstorms moving through east Texas and NW Louisiana into central Louisiana with 20 wind reports and 10 hail reports so far. We'll have to see how things evolve as we go into the afternoon. Stay alert not only for "colorful eggs," but also for these storms if you are in south Texas, Louisiana, and later central to southern Mississippi.
Happy Easter everybody.

It feels like spring today. First time since September.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CALDWELL PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COLUMBIA...
GRANT PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
JACKSON PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JONESBORO...
LA SALLE PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
OUACHITA PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST MONROE...SWARTZ...MONROE...
CLAIBORNE...BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE...
WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WINNFIELD...
NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NATCHITOCHES...
EAST CENTRAL SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1153 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STERLINGTON TO 18 MILES WEST OF
NATCHITOCHES...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BASTROP TO 18 MILES WEST OF NATCHITOCHES...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
RICHWOOD...MONTGOMERY...GRAYSON...CLARKS...OLLA... COLFAX...MIDWAY
AND JENA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED SOME WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS LINE OF STORMS. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT
QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH
AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&
Stay Alert up there Pcola......................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS LOW...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKLE SIZE HAIL...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED CASES OF QUARTER SIZE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MOSTLY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE PRESENT BOTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.
Nobody hurt.

Congratulations residents, you just won the lottery.

Sue for mental anguish, property damages, respiratory problems from inhaling fumes, etc, etc. Ya'll never have to work again in your lives if you play your cards right.
Nasty line of storms here,heed your warnings folks....
.NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STERLINGTON TO 18 MILES WEST OF
NATCHITOCHES...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BASTROP TO 18 MILES WEST OF NATCHITOCHES...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
RICHWOOD...MONTGOMERY...GRAYSON...CLARKS...OLLA... COLFAX...MIDWAY
AND JENA...
Quoting PedleyCA:
Happy Easter to All from the West Coast.



Just burning off here. 57.1 and crisp....
did you get the hail the size of honeydews yet
lol
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
did you get the hail the size of honeydews yet
lol


Haven't got anything YET...

Post 633 is screwing up the hide button, FYI Think that green background did it.


No mention of Honeydew sized hail here Keeper,

Happy Easter, everyone!! We're about to be hit with a 'dangerous thunderstorm'. Hopefully we won't loose electric, or at least it won't go out until dinner is out of the oven. Sides and yeast rolls for dinner? Well, we'll have to see...

Hoping everyone has a wonderful Easter!
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Watch out Alexandria, LA!!


Thanks for fixing that post (633)....


Quoting PedleyCA:


Haven't got anything YET...

Post 633 is screwing up the hide button, FYI Think that green background did it.
Yeah didn't like the look of that screen one bit. The problem should be fixed now:).
Balmy day tomorrow... first time this year to be so
Enjoy April Fools and be careful!!!


click image for larger view
The rain continues in the majority of PR. There has been some flooding but nothing major so far. The forecast is for this wet weather to go away by tomight and Monday should be with plenty of sun and isolated showers.







Coldest Easter Sunday on record (-12.5C) and coldest March since 1962 in UK.

Link
Quoting PedleyCA:


No mention of Honeydew sized hail here Keeper,

i know iam just jokng but if ya do see some that size let us know right away


Looks like SoCal will get screwed out of any Rain again. I saw 20% yesterday and then it went to 30% and now is back to 20% and the storm is passing to the North and isn't throwing anything this way. That's Life....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i know iam just jokng but if ya do see some that size let us know right away


Knew you were joking. Got the camera right here with fresh batteries just in case. You never know these days. Faster and Faster.
65.2 here off a 67 forecast. I see you have 52 this afternoon.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Knew you were joking. Got the camera right here with fresh batteries just in case. You never know these days. Faster and Faster.
65.2 here off a 67 forecast. I see you have 52 this afternoon.
ya overcast today waiting on the showers then hopefully the last cold shot of the year till the end of october
651. etxwx
Wind is picking up here in northern Jasper Co. TX...and yes...it's starting to rain a bit. Nothing severe so far and the dogs have not begun vibrating yet. If the rains get heavy, I'll lose the satellite internet & TV so no weather updates. Time to turn on the weather radio...


Not much out there and it is headed North. 66.4 here and still climbing.
Quoting etxwx:
Wind is picking up here in northern Jasper Co. TX...and yes...it's starting to rain a bit. Nothing severe so far and the dogs have not begun vibrating yet. If the rains get heavy, I'll lose the satellite internet & TV so no weather updates. Time to turn on the weather radio...


May have spoken too soon for Centex: looks like some good mischief firing up! I'm just thankful it's *able* to rain, that the demonic highs haven't settled in yet.
Quoting LargoFl:
Nasty line of storms here,heed your warnings folks....

New Orleans needs to monitor this
Happy Easter, everyone.

It's been a cool morning for me as temperature reached 68F. The cold front has passed my area and is now falling apart. On Monday, however, another band of showers is anticipated for some of the Hawaiian Islands. Normal weather will return afterward.
Another cool night expected for the islands:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Happy Easter everybody.

It feels like spring today. First time since September.



What about when you said it was 81F?
Wild weather for the Southern Plains:

The GFS is alongside the ECMWF in showing a deep-digging, positively-tilted trough in about 10 days. A multi-day outbreak of severe weather would be likely with this. Still plenty of time to watch.

664. etxwx
Quoting redwagon:


May have spoken too soon for Centex: looks like some good mischief firing up! I'm just thankful it's *able* to rain, that the demonic highs haven't settled in yet.


Yup, even though it hasn't been as bad here in the eastern half of the state, we sure appreciate every drop of rain we get. And with that little line of showers that just went through, we picked up a half an inch. Woot! The pasture and the garden will be very happy...temps down to mid 60's now too. Hope everyone stays safe as that line continues on.
RE: Comment #617: this is a photo uploaded to facebook:

Click for full size:

oil


Facebook caption:

"Folks, this is a backyard picture of the Mayflower, AR oil spill on that Exxon pipeline. The local authorities have denied the press access to these areas so few have actually seen the extent of the spill. This picture was taken by a friend's daughter who lives next door to this house."

I just want to say, however, that despite the fact there have been two spills of Canadian oil sands product in the United States in just the past four days alone, we should nevertheless absolutely, positively trust the Keystone people when they tell us their XL II pipeline is completely safe and so technologically advanced that such spills will never happen...
The brand-new 6-10 day CPC outlook calls for a good chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the country:

cpc

...while the 8-14 day suggests that eastern half of the nation may be very warm come the middle of the month:

cpc
And Nea is today's 666th post...on Easter. Doom.
rain moving across my area... what an Easter...



If you live in the mid-Atlantic Sates or in the Northeast, check out tomorrow's warmest temperatures of the year... see post #644
GUST FRONT out front tail of the area west LA

no severe weather alerts for New Orleans...yet
Quoting Neapolitan:
RE: Comment #617: this is a photo uploaded to facebook:

Click for full size:

oil


Facebook caption:

"Folks, this is a backyard picture of the Mayflower, AR oil spill on that Exxon pipeline. The local authorities have denied the press access to these areas so few have actually seen the extent of the spill. This picture was taken by a friend's daughter who lives next door to this house."

I just want to say, however, that despite the fact there have been two spills of Canadian oil sands product in the United States in just the past four days alone, we should nevertheless absolutely, positively trust the Keystone people when they tell us their XL II pipeline is completely safe and so technologically advanced that such spills will never happen...

I saw one other picture from one of the local news affiliates that showed some of the oil spilling into that neighborhood's street. Not sure if that was posted already or not.
Seems like it may not be covering a huge area (as far as residential areas are concerned) but I know there is some concern for Lake Conway as some of the small creeks behind this neighborhood run into an arm on the SW side of the lake.
Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
The brand-new 6-10 day CPC outlook calls for a good chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the country:

cpc

...while the 8-14 day suggests that eastern half of the nation may be very warm come the middle of the month:

cpc
WOAH!! Looks like old man winter is finally giving up his ghost this could potentially mean widespread 70's and 80's across the east as we go towards mid April...Keep those fingers crossed;).
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) anomalies w/ an overlying 26C SST contour.

Video of Arkasas oil spill taken from a car

Link
Here is how Nino 3.4 and the other Enso areas are doing.



Tropical Tidbits analysis
Quoting yonzabam:
Video of Arkasas oil spill taken from a car

Link

Wow, that's incredibly disgusting. I don't know enough about the environmental cleanup process with oil spills to say for sure, but I'd bet it takes quite some time to get living fauna back the way it was pre-spill. Lots of soil remediation ahead.
Good afternoon everybody and Happy Easter!

I think it's safe to say Spring has finally arrived here in Ohio! The temperature was in the upper 50's and low 60's this weekend and after a bit of a cool down, it could get into the 70's by next Sunday.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The brand-new 6-10 day CPC outlook calls for a good chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the country:

cpc

...while the 8-14 day suggests that eastern half of the nation may be very warm come the middle of the month:

cpc


After a much below March some warmer weather was due.
Quoting luvtogolf:


After a much below March some warmer weather was due.
True, March was a cold one for much of the U.S. (thanks in large part to last summer's alarming loss of Arctic ice). But then again, record highs for the year have outnumbered record lows despite the recent cold snap, so one would think more cool weather is still due if nature is just trying to balance things...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS is alongside the ECMWF in showing a deep-digging, positively-tilted trough in about 10 days. A multi-day outbreak of severe weather would be likely with this. Still plenty of time to watch.

This matches up with my curious recent dream quite well, although I still can't imagine what it would take to cave in the roof's of vehicles. It would take either a prolonged bombardment of baseball sized hail, or grapefruit sized hail of sufficient concentration to do this, and that's quite rare.

688. txjac
Just got a severe thunderstorm warning here ...I am so looking forward to this. Just got back from spending some time with my son ...I miss him so much but he is just such a wonderful kid ...it's amazing to me that I raised him on my own! Getting ready to meet my sister,her two sons, my daughter and her boyfriend.

Hopefully the rain isnt too bad when I am out in it!
689. txjac
Quoting Neapolitan:
True, March was a cold one for much of the U.S. (thanks in large part to last summer's alarming loss of Arctic ice). But then again, record highs for the year have outnumbered record lows despite the recent cold snap, so one would think more cool weather is still due if nature is just trying to balance things...


I would take some more cool weather Nea to balance thing out. Happy Easter to you and yours Nea
Rainy morning

69F afternoon, and partly sunny...high humidity..
hello spring.
Oh well back to basketball....go DUKE... I have certain affiliations with them.

I'm rooting for Wichita State to win it all.
I'm an upset kind of guy
Quoting Civicane49:
Another cool night expected for the islands:



73' is about a heatwave here! Personally, I don't like it much above 70'!

Gorgeous, if still icy winds here in N Wales. Worked this morning very early and then came home and got daughter to go for a walk up the lake to Llanberis and back, stopping for a coffee there before heading back. Was great in sheltered areas, but when in that steady, icy wind, brrr! Well to me, she had just a sweater on and was fine, just her kind of day! Snow still sticking even at quite lower elevations and below freezing at night (was a GIANT frozen seagull poo on my windshield after work last night! LOL). High today here was just above 40', with windchill around freezing and 25-28 overnight. Supposed to stay just the same all week still. Don't mind too much when it's cold and sunny, but the wind could back off!
Nature is good for the soul... or rather, distraction away from the man-made is good for the body.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Wow, that's incredibly disgusting. I don't know enough about the environmental cleanup process with oil spills to say for sure, but I'd bet it takes quite some time to get living fauna back the way it was pre-spill. Lots of soil remediation ahead.


I don't know much about soil remediation either, however from the Kalamazoo spill what has been learned is that dilbit (the material in the pipeline), as opposed to standard light crude oil, doesn't float on top of water. The real danger comes if it hits a body of water and is transported to the bottom where it can't be contained using conventional oil booms.

Also while people are going to point out the obvious danger in transporting dilbit by pipeline (as it is more corrosive than regular crude) across long distances at high pressure, and tell their legislators they DEFINITELY don't want a pipelines built next to their house, there is an increasing problem with it being transported by railcar as Nea and Skyepony have pointed out. There was a recent railcar derailment in Minnesota that spilled 30,000 gallons a few days ago. As rail traffic picks up along these corridors for tar sand dilbit a lot of people are going to be surprised to find it's being shipped through their locality when they start having higher rates of accidents and derailments near rivers they are downstream from. We can argue whether it's necessary or not (considering it's being refined in Port Arthur, Texas on it's way to China, Europe, and points elsewhere, besides the obvious climate argument I have a feeling people will be less inclined to say yes), but safety MUST be at the top of the list for municipalities and states that say yes to more freight cars loaded with highly dangerous liquids.

A lot of people were caught off guard in 2009, for instance, waiting at a railroad crossing when several rail cars carrying ethanol (2 million gallons worth) came off the tracks due to flooding and burst into flames burning several people, including one woman who was burned to death in her car. I doubt we'll have that level of catastrophe (as heavy oil is harder to ignite than ethanol), but it resulted in a heavy fish kill a few days later and it turned out Candian National, the railroad operator, were the majority of blame for dropping the ball as the local Winnebago county dispatch tried to contact them several times with no response before the accident.
There's a climate connection here also, the area had been innundated from a severe thunderstorm that dumped up to 3 1/2 inches of rain in an hour (!). We're going to see more of these extreme weather events in the future and if the prevailing attitude of wait and see how bad it gets instead of preparing for it, we'll see more railroad/ pipeline failures and many, many, more local environmental castrophes with more people being for certain maimed and, tragically, in some cases killed.

Off my soap box. Sorry to be a drag. Have a good rest of Easter everyone!
ITCZ slowly lifting up

5.1 about 100 miles away from Eureka, CA

Incredible storm structure:

Link
New Orleans under a severe thunderstorm watch

Woww!!!!!Looks the vertical wind shear anomaly in the atlantic MDR, imagine if that happens in august onwards...Ufff
deleted due to double posting
This HAD a tornado warning...kina random



About diluted bitumen... On July 16, 2010, just nine days before the Marshall accident, the EPA warned that the proprietary nature of the diluents found in dilbit could complicate cleanup efforts. The agency was commenting on the State Department's Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) of the Keystone XL, a proposed pipeline that would carry Canadian dilbit across six U.S. states and the critically-important Ogallala aquifer.
"First, we note that in order for the bitumen to be transported by the pipeline, it will be either diluted with cutter stock (the specific composition of which is proprietary information to each shipper) or an upgrading technology is applied to convert the bitumen to synthetic crude oil," the EPA wrote. "...Without more information on the chemical characteristics of the diluent or the synthetic crude, it is difficult to determine the fate and transport of any spilled oil in the aquatic environment."
"For example, the chemical nature of dilutent may have significant implications for response as it may negatively impact the efficacy of traditional floating oil spill response equipment or response strategies. In addition, the Draft EIS addresses oil in general and as explained earlier, it may not be appropriate to assume this bitumen crude/synthetic crude shares the same characteristics as other oils."
Texas Hill Country Storm Update

Kerr County is currently being hit with torrential rain, High winds (40-50mph gusts) and 1/4" hail. For about 15 minutes it reminded me of a summer monsoon in Southern Arizona.

Not too excited about looking at the gardenin the morning.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Woww!!!!!Looks the vertical wind shear anomaly in the atlantic MDR, imagine if that happens in august onwards...Ufff

Yeah, that's pretty crazy...


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
356 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTH CENTRAL ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RESERVE...LAPLACE...
WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAMMOND...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF INDEPENDENCE TO SPRINGFIELD TO 18 MILES
WEST OF WHITEHALL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM AMITE TO 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAMMOND TO GONZALES...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PONCHATOULA...ROBERT...GARYVILLE...MADISONVILLE... NORCO AND ABITA
SPRINGS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Woww!!!!!Looks the vertical wind shear anomaly in the atlantic MDR, imagine if that happens in august onwards...Ufff

uh oh.....
Quoting Astrometeor:


Hey Astro
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hey Astro


Hiya, working on my "Thoughts on Millersville" blog right now. Watching the storms and the Dr. Masters blog too.
Quoting aspectre:
diluted bitumen On July 16, 2010, just nine days before the Marshall accident, the EPA warned that the proprietary nature of the diluents found in dilbit could complicate cleanup efforts. The agency was commenting on the State Department's Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) of the Keystone XL, a proposed pipeline that would carry Canadian dilbit across six U.S. states and the critically-important Ogallala aquifer.
"First, we note that in order for the bitumen to be transported by the pipeline, it will be either diluted with cutter stock (the specific composition of which is proprietary information to each shipper) or an upgrading technology is applied to convert the bitumen to synthetic crude oil," the EPA wrote. "...Without more information on the chemical characteristics of the diluent or the synthetic crude, it is difficult to determine the fate and transport of any spilled oil in the aquatic environment."
"For example, the chemical nature of dilutent may have significant implications for response as it may negatively impact the efficacy of traditional floating oil spill response equipment or response strategies. In addition, the Draft EIS addresses oil in general and as explained earlier, it may not be appropriate to assume this bitumen crude/synthetic crude shares the same characteristics as other oils."


I was looking for that before posting! Couldn't find it so I posted anyway. Thanks.
big lake effect for upstate NY...

353 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...7 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE IN 12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES OR MORE IN A 24 HOUR TIME FRAME.

ST. JAMES LA-ASCENSION LA-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST LA-ST. CHARLES LA-
LIVINGSTON LA-ST. TAMMANY LA-TANGIPAHOA LA-
410 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY...EASTERN
LIVINGSTON...NORTHWESTERN ST. CHARLES...NORTHERN ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...NORTHEASTERN ASCENSION AND NORTHEASTERN ST. JAMES
PARISHES...

AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM INDEPENDENCE TO PONCHATOULA
TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WHITEHALL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
AMITE TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF HAMMOND TO GONZALES...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROBERT...GARYVILLE...MADISONVILLE...RESERVE...COV INGTON...NORCO...
MANDEVILLE...LAPLACE AND ABITA SPRINGS
Three people have been killed and at least 20 injured after a massive 75-car pileup on Interstate 77 near the Virginia and North Carolina border Sunday afternoon, according to authorities.

The crash began around 1 p.m. in the southbound lane in Carroll County, Virginia, according to Virginia State Police. Excessive fog in the Fancy Gap Mountain area is being blamed for the massive accident.

Both Southebound and Northbound lanes near the Virginia and North Carolina border remain closed, with northbound lanes likely reopening within the next two hours.
Didn't notice this until I posted the Intellicast image of warnings in the South. Kind of random, but still dangerous.

IREDELL NC-
511 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
IREDELL COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
STATESVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.
Spring early ?? Yeah right. The temp hasn't gone above 10C here since January. Now rats a record !!
AccuWeather.com %u200F@breakingweather 36m
Half dollar-sized hail reported near Panorama Village, TX (north of Houston)
Quoting aspectre:
Nature is good for the soul... or rather, distraction from the man-made is good for the body.


Our teacher for a master gardening course was a former urban forester and he rattled off several studies in a powerpoint on the long list of benefits in urban areas for trees. From higher grades, lower crime, better wellbeing in general, and one study by the USDA that found in rural counties that forest cover was the biggest determinant of whether the county was gaining or losing people rather than more common socioeconomic trends. Gotta go dig it up.
And the Show goes on!



The thunderstorm probabilities take into account both the expected areal coverage and probability for thunder to occur. Therefore, a 40% probability means that given similar environmental conditions, thunder would be observed at any one location (in either a county or city) within the 40% thunder probability area four times out of ten, or 40% of the time.
those single cell thunderstorms are tying to make their own line ahead of the big one.
they don't look very strong anyway

PEARL RIVER MS-
429 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL PEARL RIVER COUNTY...

AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR POPLARVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE FIRST STORM
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF CROSSROADS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.
More good stuff on TransCanada Keystone
See linked articles below my verbiage. My comments reference a article in the Gazette that I could not find on line.

I lived in the area. I remember when the pipeline got proposed and protested. Keystone specially said in a meeting in Valley City ND, "this thing is state of the art, it can not leak, and will never leak".

Last time I looked, 12 leaks in the first year of operation.

The local paper (http://www.rcgazette.com/Ransom_County_Gazette/Ra nsom_County_Gazette.htmlLink) Did a article on this after it happened. In the article the farmer whose land the pipe line was on were the leak happened said that he went from being a anti environmentalist, to a pretty strong environmentalist. Seems when the shoe is on the other foot, or at least you learn the reality of something. Your views change.

Apparently they were not overly helpful about coughing up $$ for the clean up and excepting responsibility based on comments form the local people in the area.

In the linked article below the farmer points out they threatened him with "condemnation" (basically Eminent domain via the government, but int his case just an easement, not purchase) it was because he wanted the thing run further away from his house. Had he not fought them with the placement of the pipeline, when it "Leaked like Keystone said it never could" it would have sprayed his house and farm yard. That would have been end game for the complete place. Remediation in such a situation is "tear it down and burn it".

The reason for the leak was "cheapness", the article said Keystone used low bid fittings. They had to replace all the fittings across the entire pipeline.

The "leak" in the following articles supposedly contaminated ~160 acres of land. I never did follow up to verify if that was correct, or how the Remediation went.

http://www.wday.com/event/article/id/46684/Link

VERN MEIER - TransCanada Keystone: %u201CShutdown the pipeline as is our practice when we have an unplanned release of oil and we are doing a full investigation and we will not bring the line into service until we are satisfied that we have addressed the issue not just here but other sites that may have an issue.%u201D

The oil company- farmer relationship around here is not Romeo and Juliet.

%u201CThey served me with condemnation when I would not give them an easement.%u201D


http://texasvox.org/2011/05/10/major-oil-spill-fr om-keystone-pipeline/Link
NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 1h
Rain increasing tonight w/ gusty S winds & a rumble of thunder along the S coast. Renewed thunder chances Monday w/ locally strong winds.
The pileup in NC/VA on I-77 is related to fog bringing down visibilities significantly...

this happened too
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Max, I think I am going to split my thoughts into two posts, one on the general stuff and the next on the more interesting meteorology visits and enlightenments.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
The pileup in NC/VA on I-77 is related to fog...

this happened too


What's in that truck that caused it to burn like that? Nice picture, I bet the photographer could feel the heat coming off from that fire.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Max, I think I am going to split my thoughts into two posts, one on the general stuff and the next on the more interesting meteorology visits and enlightenments.



a votre plaisir...
I'll read them both...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...
WESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PICAYUNE...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 440 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ABITA SPRINGS...OR NEAR COVINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LACOMBE...PEARL RIVER...STENNIS SPACE CENTER AND PEARLINGTON
Storm is past. Electric went out just as I began slicing the last piece of meat (Electric knife). Gravy was barely warm. So we ate by candlelight. Three hours later, we have electric. Same thing happened on Christmas, but due to having our big Christmas dinner a day early due to family, it didn't affect us. Poor guys who have had to go fix the lines though.

Those still in the path of this storm, it's not a nice one. Be careful.
Quoting Astrometeor:


What's in that truck that caused it to burn like that? Nice picture, I bet the photographer could feel the heat coming off from that fire.


a big crash followed by a massive 75-car pileup...all due (apparently) to dense fog on the highway

not so sure if the semi was involved in the crash...Sad Easter for them
:(
Quoting stormchaser19:
Woww!!!!!Looks the vertical wind shear anomaly in the atlantic MDR, imagine if that happens in august onwards...Ufff


SST anomaly has continued to warm on the eastern Atlantic as well. If these conditions persist, then we could have an early/active Cape Verde season ahead.

735. txjac
Rain, rain, ,lovely rain ...complete with a bit of thunder and lightening ...the dogs loved it ...not as much as me though! Man, this couldnt be any better, I have sincerely missed this!
Special weather statement for:
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Orangeville - Grand Valley - Southern Dufferin County
=new= Shelburne - Mansfield - Northern Dufferin County
=new= Grey - Bruce.

Snow squalls possible Monday night.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A strong Arctic cold front will cross Southern Ontario overnight.
Cold west to northwest winds blowing over the relatively warm waters
of Lake Huron will cause snow showers to develop off Lake Huron
during the day Monday. These snow showers could be briefly heavy at
times giving local poor visibilities and slippery roads.
Significant snowfall accumulations are not expected during the
daylight hours.

However, there are indications that a more organized snow squall
could develop Monday evening and continue through the night into
early Tuesday. The areas most likely to be affected include Southern
Grey-Bruce, Northern Wellington, and Southern Dufferin.
Local snowfall amounts of 10 cm or more will be possible accompanied
by poor visibilities and local blowing snow.

Environment Canada will monitor this situation the public is advised
to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required
or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End

737. txjac
@732

Sounds like a memory making, beautiful holiday.
You are blessed
738. JRRP
Quoting stormchaser19:
Woww!!!!!Looks the vertical wind shear anomaly in the atlantic MDR, imagine if that happens in august onwards...Ufff


yes
BRING IT



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/GA...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 312151Z - 312315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS INTENSIFYING ALONG THE MERGING OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/CONFLUENCE BANDS WILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. ACTIVITY MAY MERGE WITH THE
BROADER QLCS ACROSS LA/MS WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE
DOWNSTREAM OF WW 75.

DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY HAVE DEPICTED THE COLLISION
OF TWO DISTINCT BOUNDARIES...WHICH HAS SUPPORTED RECENT TSTM
INTENSIFICATION ACROSS SRN AL/GA. RAP-BASED 1-H FORECAST SOUNDINGS
APPEAR PARTICULARLY TOO COOL/DRY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHICH IS LIKELY YIELDING SUBSTANTIALLY LESSER
BUOYANCY THAN REALITY IN SPC MESOANALYSIS. GIVEN UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S DEW POINTS S OF THE
BOUNDARY COLLISION...AIR MASS IS PROBABLY AT LEAST MODESTLY
UNSTABLE. AREA VWP DATA SAMPLED 30-40 KT IN THE 3-6 KM AGL LAYER
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A CONTINUED
PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE HAIL.

SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF SWRN/S-CNTRL AL
MAY OCCUR WITH THE BROADER QLCS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL EVOLVING
EWD FROM SERN LA/MS. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 00Z.
The GFS and GFS ensembles are not optimistic in warming up the northern half of the United States through the middle portions of April. The two do show a substantial warm up for the South, however.

March will go down as the quietest month for tornadoes in over three decades. While April will also be quiet--potentially record-breaking[ly] so--I fully believe May will feature a remarkable amount of activity.



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
450 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 443 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JACINTO CITY...AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...LA PORTE...CHANNELVIEW...DEER PARK...CLOVERLEAF...SOUTH
HOUSTON...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY AND MORGAN`S POINT.
743. JRRP
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
506 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 500 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR BAYTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAYTOWN AND COVE.
even more snow...associated with the NY lake effect


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF CNTRL/NRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 312159Z - 010000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
CNTRL/NRN CA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...AND ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...DIURNAL DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BENEATH COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES PRECEDING A MID-LEVEL
VORT MAX APPROACHING THE CNTRL CA COAST...IS YIELDING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE VALUES OF 250-800 J/KG ARE COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
AND SACRAMENTO VALLEYS...WHERE INSOLATION HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED WITH
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AUGMENTED BY DCVA LEADING THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL
RANGES...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE
ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE CNTRL CA INTERIOR.

AS THE DCVA MAKES ADDITIONAL PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AMID 500-MB TEMPERATURES FROM -25C
TO -20C WILL LIKELY YIELD A THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. ONE OR TWO OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY
INVOF THE COLDEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONGEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER BUOYANCY -- FROM THE CNTRL CA COASTAL RANGES TO THE
ADJACENT CNTRL CA VALLEY. HOWEVER...WITH AOB 25 KT OF DEEP SHEAR AND
WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED BY REGIONAL VWP
DATA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LACK ANY SUBSTANTIAL
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE...GREATLY LIMITING ANY SVR THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 03/31/2013
Quoting JRRP:


Closeup image of PR.



Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Closeup image of PR.





what's you location in Puerto Rico..?
A high school friend of mine is from Ponce
Quoting txjac:
Rain, rain, ,lovely rain ...complete with a bit of thunder and lightening ...the dogs loved it ...not as much as me though! Man, this couldnt be any better, I have sincerely missed this!


How long you suppose that low coming for us to arrive? Will it pick up any strength on the way over?
Nice day in paradise.

Fresh out from the SPC:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...74...

VALID 312224Z - 010000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
73...74...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...GREATEST RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST WITH DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF WW 73...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE SEWD AND NECESSITATE A NEW WW ISSUANCE IN PARTS OF THE BRUSH
COUNTY THIS EVENING. RISK FOR A COMBINATION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS INVOF GALVESTON BAY AREA BEFORE QLCS
MOVES COMPLETELY OFFSHORE.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE SWD ALONG A
SAGGING W/E-ORIENTED COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW. THE MOST INTENSE
REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE WRN PORTION OF A LARGE-SCALE QLCS WAS LOCATED
INVOF GALVESTON BAY. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE ROBUST
SEVERE POTENTIAL HERE IS THE NEARLY PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE LINE ALONG WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF IT /AS SAMPLED BY THE HGX VWP/. STILL WITH
INFLOW OF LOW TO MIDDLE 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE SW AMIDST
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTS A MIXED RISK OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER WEST...A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS UVALDE AND KINNEY
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A PRIMARY RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
/POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ WITHIN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TSTM
ACTIVITY HERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE SEWD JUST BEHIND THE
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/FRONT WHICH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL TO SOME EXTENT SHORT-TERM. HOWEVER...GIVEN DOWNSTREAM CU
AGITATION TO ZAVALA COUNTY...CONSOLIDATION OF UPDRAFTS IS POSSIBLE
THAT MIGHT EVOLVE INTO AN ACCELERATING SEWD-CLUSTER INTO PARTS OF
DEEP S TX LATER THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 03/31/2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


what's you location in Puerto Rico..?
A high school friend of mine is from Ponce


San Juan in North coast. Ponce is in the South coast.
This was my reaction to a broken leg in march madness....and the rest of his teammates as well...

yeah i know it's not wx related.
RE: Posts 701 & 738. My wife just called on her cell phone. She is driving East on US 84 from Alabama. She says many trees down and a billboard blown down in Climax GA. Plus piles of accumulated hail on the ground. And not much response from Emergency Services visible to her. She said a weather alert came over the car radio, but it wasn't a tornado warning.
757. JRRP
Good afternoon/evening. I hope everyone is having a nice Easter. Looks like some interesting weather in my area tomorrow afternoon:

HEATING OF THE DAY COMBINED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR
STEEP NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO H8. CONSEQUENTIAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT PER ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE AND UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS COULD
YIELD SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AM CONCERNED BY THE INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS PER 31.12Z MESO-
NAM. WHILE NOTING A POTENTIAL DIFFICULTY IN PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE SURFACE...THERE IS ALSO SOME PLAUSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED VERY
GUSTY WINDS AS THE CELLULAR CORES OF POTENTIAL STORMS DROP OUT.

WILL HIGHLIGHT SUCH THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
OTHERWISE...WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST 25-35 MPH WINDS AT H925...MIX-
DOWN OF MOMENTUM SHOULD MAKE IT TO BE A BLUSTERY DAY.
Good afternoon and happy Easter everyone.

Wonderful weather I got today. Even though there was some rain in the morning, it cleared out and warmed up nicely. Also, go blue! Michigan won and is headed to the final four!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


San Juan in North coast. Ponce is in the South coast.


I know where they are...Carolina and Bayamon are cities near San Juan... learned that after Irene's impact on the Island
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon and happy Easter everyone.

Wonderful weather I got today. Even though there was some rain in the morning, it cleared out and warmed up nicely. Also, go blue! Michigan won and is headed to the final four!


Yeah that was a beatdown...
Go wichita state.
Mawxboy... NYC office mentioned something about that, there is a 20% of rain tomorrow afternoon, after reaching 60F.

some rumble after the heat and a big drop in temperatures... 29F for the night tomorrow here!
it was supposed to start raining here about 3-4 hours ago..nothing has fallen yet

18z GFS running...
the 12z showing another storm impacting poor Northeast... a possible big one, too far out though.

that is 5 days from now... Tue April 5, around there

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
540 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BEXAR COUNTY...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.

* AT 533 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OLMOS
PARK...OR NEAR SAN ANTONIO...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE TERRELL HILLS...KIRBY...
WINDCREST...LIVE OAK...CHINA GROVE...UNIVERSAL CITY...CALAVERAS
LAKE AND ST. HEDWIG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
I felt in my house the quake that occured at 6:23 PM EDT.It was a 3.4 in the central part of the island.

Detalles del Evento

Intensidad Maxima Estimada: II en Utuado, PR
Fecha: Marzo 31, 2013 22:23:44 UTC
Marzo 31, 2013 18:23:44 Hora Local
Regin: Region Central de Puerto Rico
Distancias: 6.64 Km al Noroeste de Juana Diaz,PR
8.33 Km al Suroeste de Villalba,PR
8.79 Km al Este-Noreste de Ponce,PR

Magnitud: 3.4 Ml
Localizacin: Latitud:18.088 Longitud:-66.54
Profundidad: 5 Km
Nivel de Alerta de Tsunami: No hay Aviso, Advertencia o Vigilancia de tsunami para Puerto Rico e Islas Vrgenes
Fecha y Hora de emisin: 2013-03-31 18:27:23

Red Sismica of Puerto Rico
BEXAR TX-
551 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY...

AT 543 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALAMO
HEIGHTS...OR NEAR SAN ANTONIO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE KIRBY...WINDCREST...LIVE
OAK...CHINA GROVE...MARTINEZ...PARITA...LONE OAK...ADKINS...SAYERS...
RANDOLPH AFB...ST. HEDWIG...CONVERSE AND CALAVERAS LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM IN
BALCONES HEIGHTS.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
Woah. Just zoomed my view of the page out. No idea how, either. Anybody have any ideas? All the type is smaller and looks funny, too.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I felt in my house the quake that occured at 6:23 PM EDT.It was a 3.4 in the central part of the island.


have you ever gotten hit by a big one there?, I know that there is a lot of seismic activity there and all around Central America/Caribbean
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
555 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
EASTERN STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 555 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WAS LOCATED 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WIGGINS...OR 7 MILES EAST OF PERKINSTON...AND MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PERKINSTON... MCHENRY... LUCEDALE...
BEATRICE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

Quoting Astrometeor:
Woah. Just zoomed my view of the page out. No idea how, either. Anybody have any ideas? All the type is smaller and looks funny, too.


view...actual size

Quoting Astrometeor:
Woah. Just zoomed my view of the page out. No idea how, either. Anybody have any ideas? All the type is smaller and looks funny, too.


Hit your control and plus key and see if it zooms back. That happens to me a lot, but it is usually just the wrong blood pressure medication.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



view...actual size



He's trying to view the actual size, that's the problem :)
Quoting Grothar:


Hit your control and plus key and see if it zooms back. That happens to me a lot, but it is usually just the wrong blood pressure medication.


Much better, thanks Gro.

second part, lol.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


have you ever gotten hit by a big one there?, I know that there is a lot of seismic activity there and all around Central America/Caribbean


The last big one here was in 1918 and that was a 7.3. By the way,the USGS site still has not put the quake on their list.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The last big one here was in 1918 and that was a 7.3. By the way,the USGS site still has not put the quake on their list.


I see, it's not there yet
693 aspectre: Nature is good for the soul... or rather, distraction from the man-made is good for the body.
718 AlwaysThinkin: Our teacher for a master gardening course was a former urban forester and he rattled off several studies in a powerpoint on the long list of benefits in urban areas for trees. From higher grades, lower crime, better wellbeing in general, and one study by the USDA that found in rural counties that forest cover was the biggest determinant of whether the county was gaining or losing people rather than more common socioeconomic trends. Gotta go dig it up.

Gotta be interesting, hope you can find it. Losing population isn't just through people moving away:
When trees die, people die. "When the U.S. Forest Service looked at mortality rates in counties affected by the emerald ash borer [killing off trees], they found increased mortality rates." [snip] "In an analysis of 18 years of data from 1,296 counties in 15 states, researchers found" [snip] "an additional 6,113 deaths related to illness of the lower respiratory system, and 15,080 cardiovascular-related deaths" [snip] "after accounting for the influence of demographic differences, like income, race, and education"
PDF of the original study published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.
Earlier warning still in effect on a particular storm with updated information:

BEXAR TX-
601 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY...

AT 553 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TERRELL HILLS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE KIRBY...WINDCREST...LIVE
OAK...CHINA GROVE...MARTINEZ...LONE OAK...ADKINS...SAYERS...RANDOLPH
AFB...ST. HEDWIG AND CONVERSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF
YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY.
Californian hail storm
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
608 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FRIO COUNTY...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT.

* AT 603 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FRIO TOWN...OR
ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF PEARSALL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BLUFF...DIVOT AND DERBY.

THIS STORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG FM 150 TOWARD PEARSALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 9886 2870 9922 2896 9940 2908 9928
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 311DEG 21KT 2898 9928

$$
Now is on the list but they downgraded to a 3.1.

2013-03-31 22:23:44 UTC
2013-03-31 18:23:44 UTC-04:00 at epicenter
2013-03-31 18:23:44 UTC-04:00 system time


Location

18.039°N 66.562°W depth=19.0km (11.8mi)


Nearby Cities
1km (1mi) SW of Coto Laurel, Puerto Rico
6km (4mi) ENE of Ponce, Puerto Rico
22km (14mi) WSW of Coamo, Puerto Rico
30km (19mi) E of Yauco, Puerto Rico
67km (42mi) SW of San Juan, Puerto Rico
TORNADO WARNING


Pearsall, TX should be taking cover right now as that tornado warned storm has very strong rotation and will be making a very close path to this town, if not right over it.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
555 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
EASTERN STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 555 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WAS LOCATED 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WIGGINS...OR 7 MILES EAST OF PERKINSTON...AND MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PERKINSTON... MCHENRY... LUCEDALE...
BEATRICE...
Quoting Astrometeor:
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE TERRELL HILLS...KIRBY...
WINDCREST...LIVE OAK...CHINA GROVE...UNIVERSAL CITY...CALAVERAS
LAKE AND ST. HEDWIG.

They're talkin' bout China Grove.
I hope everyone had a nice Easter.
Quoting Speeky:
Californian hail storm


This is about 15 miles from my brothers place.
Quoting PedleyCA:


This is about 15 miles from my brothers place.


oh my, Ask him what the weather is like.


SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 76
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 615 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LAREDO TEXAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BEEVILLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 73...WW 74...WW 75...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORMS --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS-- OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP SSEWD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN TANDEM WITH A
COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETTLING SWD. AMBIENT...INFLOW AIR
MASS IS HOT AND RELATIVELY MOIST WITH STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND RESULTANT MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP...WNWLY
SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33025.


...MEAD
Big growly storm. Now out of radar frame.
no raining at all... drunk radar...
virga, I know

more californian storms
Quoting aspectre:
693 aspectre: Nature is good for the soul... or rather, distraction from the man-made is good for the body.
718 AlwaysThinkin: Our teacher for a master gardening course was a former urban forester and he rattled off several studies in a powerpoint on the long list of benefits in urban areas for trees. From higher grades, lower crime, better wellbeing in general, and one study by the USDA that found in rural counties that forest cover was the biggest determinant of whether the county was gaining or losing people rather than more common socioeconomic trends. Gotta go dig it up.

Gotta be interesting, hope you can find it. Losing population isn't just through people moving away:
When trees die, people die. "When the U.S. Forest Service looked at mortality rates in counties affected by the emerald ash borer [killing off trees], they found increased mortality rates." [snip] "In an analysis of 18 years of data from 1,296 counties in 15 states, researchers found" [snip] "an additional 6,113 deaths related to illness of the lower respiratory system, and 15,080 cardiovascular-related deaths" [snip] "after accounting for the influence of demographic differences, like income, race, and education"
Link to a PDF of the original study published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.


Urban Vegetation Deters Crime in Philadelphia
Maybe this one helps? - And good evening. I hope all of you had a nice day.
800. beell
Quoting bappit:

They're talkin' bout China Grove.


'ear...
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Big growly storm.


That's near Uvalde. The one southeast of there is tornado warned.
Looks like hail for sure:
And this storm is out of the radar frame too.


GREENE MS-GEORGE MS-
631 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR GEORGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES...

AT 629 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS OVER 60 MPH WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF LUCEDALE...OR 10
MILES NORTH OF WADE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL LOCATIONS BETWEEN LUCEDALE AND WADE...
windy day tomorrow here besides some pm showers...did not know what one (wind) until 5 mins ago...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
March will go down as the quietest month for tornadoes in over three decades. While April will also be quiet--potentially record-breaking[ly] so--I fully believe May will feature a remarkable amount of activity.


April hasn't even started yet...?

There is also very little correlation - positive or negative - between tornado activity in subsequent months. Quiet activity in March/April doesn't suggest a strong probability of a "remarkable" May for tornadoes.
Instances of Kamehameha being reported in Japan.

And some more news from our tireless "Science Daily":


This set of images shows the observed distribution of Arctic vegetation (left) in relation to the predicted distribution of vegetation under a climate warming scenario for the 2050s (right). Data used to generate the observed image are from the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (2003). (Credit: AMNH/R. Pearson)

New Models Predict Drastically Greener Arctic in Coming Decades

Mar. 31, 2013 — New research predicts that rising temperatures will lead to a massive "greening," or increase in plant cover, in the Arctic. In a paper published on March 31 in Nature Climate Change, scientists reveal new models projecting that wooded areas in the Arctic could increase by as much as 50 percent over the next few decades. The researchers also show that this dramatic greening will accelerate climate warming at a rate greater than previously expected.

Read the whole article
Quoting barbamz:

I guess that also represents thawing permafrost.

Edit: arrgh, Science Daily needs to post a map that's not so blurry.
760 trHUrrIXC5MMX: Carolina and Bayamon are cities near San Juan... learned that after Irene's impact on the Island

Is that North Carolina or South Carolina? presslord can get very fussy with folks who don't specify which
Quoting aspectre:
760 trHUrrIXC5MMX: Carolina and Bayamon are cities near San Juan... learned that after Irene's impact on the Island

Is that NorthCarolina of SouthCarolina? presslord can get very fussy with folks who don't specify which.


Just remember that North Carolina is on top!
Tornado warning expired for the storm, but it is still dangerous.


ZAVALA TX-
642 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL ZAVALA COUNTY...

AT 638 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WASHER...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA
PRYOR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS LA PRYOR NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 83 AND 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
SST will probably go down a bit.
Who are the moderators? It seems better here.
The NAO is likely to go positive during the middle of April. While this will not be significant regarding tropical cyclone activity downstream (as long as it doesn't continue into a strongly positive phase and remain there for an extended period of time)...it does ensure that sea surface temperatures will not [continue to] rise dramatically, as strengthened ridges over the central and northeastern Atlantic produce stronger-than-average trade winds across the Main Development Region and cool waters through evaporational processes.

Quoting bappit:

I guess that also represents thawing permafrost.

Edit: arrgh, Science Daily needs to post a map that's not so blurry.


These maps (and some more) with a much better resultion in the pdf of the original article (no paywall, go figure). But it takes some time to download.
If the evaporation is greater, that means atmospheric moisture is greater and more rain in the tropics, doesn't it?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Who are the moderators? It seems better here.


The guys with the green "mod" next to their name.
So, Skyepony, Keeper, RTLSNK, auburn, whitewabbit.
LAVACA TX-
715 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL LAVACA COUNTY...

AT 706 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VIENNA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HALLETTSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE SPEAKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Quoting Astrometeor:


The guys with the green "mod" next to their name.
So, Skyepony, Keeper, RTLSNK, auburn, whitewabbit.


Thanks. Was just wondering if there was a list of moderators.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
If the evaporation is greater, that means atmospheric moisture is greater and more rain in the tropics, doesn't it?

Perhaps theoretically. But cool sea surface temperatures promote cooler air temperatures, and cool air is stable and more dense.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Perhaps theoretically. But cool sea surface temperatures promote cooler air temperatures, and cool air is stable and more dense.


So the more the air evaporates the cooler and more stable it is. Although moist air is less dense than dry air. Negative feedbacks stabilizing things.

It's like a restaurant that's so popular nobody goes there!
VAL VERDE TX-
738 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY...

AT 734 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEL RIO...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE LAUGHLIN AFB.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...76...

VALID 010027Z - 010200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
73...76...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS...BUT INTENSIFYING INHIBITION WILL RESULT IN
WEAKENING TSTM ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE SEWD OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY ALONG SWD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED TO THE SE NEAR THE MERGER OF THIS OUTFLOW WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 30-40 NW ALI. 00Z CRP/BRO SAMPLED A PRONOUNCED
CAPPING INVERSION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...MODIFYING THE RAOBS FOR LIKELY
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT
HAIL. MERGING OF SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LESSENING OF
HAIL SIZE. THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH RESULTING INGEST OF
INCREASING MLCIN AMIDST MEAGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO THE
EVENTUAL DEMISE OF THE SUPERCELLS BY LATE EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 04/01/2013
That's all for me guys. Good night. Have to prepare for tomorrow.
Flood advisory issued for the Big Island of Hawaii until later in the evening.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
226 PM HST SUN MAR 31 2013

HIC001-010330-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0067.130401T0026Z-130401T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HAWAII HI-
226 PM HST SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII IN HAWAII COUNTY

* UNTIL 530 PM HST

* AT 218 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN NEAR PUNALUU...OR ABOUT 45
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HILO. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WOOD
VALLEY AND PAHALA WITHIN KAU DISTRICT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 530 PM HST IF HEAVY RAIN
PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 1938 15543 1921 15526 1894 15553 1912 15572

$$
POWELL
south pole

Quoting barbamz:
And some more news from our tireless "Science Daily":


This set of images shows the observed distribution of Arctic vegetation (left) in relation to the predicted distribution of vegetation under a climate warming scenario for the 2050s (right). Data used to generate the observed image are from the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (2003). (Credit: AMNH/R. Pearson)

New Models Predict Drastically Greener Arctic in Coming Decades

Mar. 31, 2013 — New research predicts that rising temperatures will lead to a massive "greening," or increase in plant cover, in the Arctic. In a paper published on March 31 in Nature Climate Change, scientists reveal new models projecting that wooded areas in the Arctic could increase by as much as 50 percent over the next few decades. The researchers also show that this dramatic greening will accelerate climate warming at a rate greater than previously expected.

Read the whole article


It's all caused by HAARP.
looks cold
.
today is there last day of summer once april comes its the cooling season
and the darkening begins as well
Okay, based on the sst nearly 1C above average in the tropical atlantic and the ENSO being near neutral, my current prediction for the 2013 Hurricane Season is:  16-20/ 9-11/ 3-5. These numbers may be a little bit high. But I will modify my predictions as we move closer to hurricane season. 61 days, 2 hours, and 43 minutes left!!!!
Why do I always miss all the exciting severe weather when I'm at work (there was a report of hail exceeding quarter size on Highway 44 in Gonzales, which is very near the Walmart store I work at)? What's more, what was I doing working on Easter? o_o
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why do I always miss all the exciting severe weather when I'm at work? What's more, what was I doing working on Easter? o_o

I worked on Easter also....
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why do I always miss all the exciting severe weather when I'm at work? What's more, what was I doing working on Easter? o_o
wal mart we dont even close for easter
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wal mart we dont even close for easter


They're trying to get it to where we work on Christmas, too. It'll most likely be a very gradual process, but still, if for some unexpected reason I am still there when it happens, I will call in and feign sickness every time.

Actually had a run in with one of the overnight co managers the other day regarding that very thing. I explained to her that she takes a job way too seriously. We had an assistant manager have a heart attack for that very reason a few years back. I told her I refuse to end up that way.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why do I always miss all the exciting severe weather when I'm at work (there was a report of hail exceeding quarter size on Highway 44 in Gonzales, which is very near the Walmart store I work at)? What's more, what was I doing working on Easter? o_o

Because you're always at work.
I wonder what makes Austin and Waller Counties so special that they're still under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch way out away from everything.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because you're always at work.


Pretty much, Cody.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I wonder what makes Austin and Waller Counties so special that they're still under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch way out away from everything.



The little box that could.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why do I always miss all the exciting severe weather when I'm at work (there was a report of hail exceeding quarter size on Highway 44 in Gonzales, which is very near the Walmart store I work at)? What's more, what was I doing working on Easter? o_o


Welcome to Walmart. :) This is the first holiday my husband hasn't worked in over a year. Yep, he worked Christmas day too. He's one of those overnight managers. lol
808 barbamz: New Models Predict Drastically Greener Arctic in Coming Decades
809 bappit: arrgh, Science Daily needs to post a map that's not so blurry.

Nah, the publishers and executive boards of most scientific journals -- especially Science and Nature -- need to be defenestated for preventing free public access to research that the public paid for.

LATERCERA Tendencias

Smithsonian Surprising Science

"Presently (left), vegetated areas of Alaska are mostly covered by small shrubs and tundra mosses (represented by the pea green color). By 2050 (right), much of this area will be dominated forests (bright green). Image via Nature Climate Change/Pearson et. al."

"In Canada, areas currently covered by tundra shrubs (purple at left) will be taken over by forest (bright green at right). Image via Nature Climate Change/Pearson et. al."
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why do I always miss all the exciting severe weather when I'm at work? What's more, what was I doing working on Easter? o_o


I know, I was working last Sunday when the airport here registered the strongest winds since the 2004 hurricane season, 56 mph gusting to 86 mph. I was not as strong where I was, but still it was bad, and I was bent out of shape about being stuck inside.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Welcome to Walmart. :) This is the first holiday my husband hasn't worked in over a year. Yep, he worked Christmas day too. He's one of those overnight managers. lol


How high is he? Zone manager? Assistant? Co?
Quoting KoritheMan:


How high is he? Zone manager? Assistant? Co?


He's a Co.
One fairly small but severe thunderstorm east of San Francisco, CA.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
657 PM PDT SUN MAR 31 2013

CAC077-010230-
/O.CON.KSTO.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130401T0230Z/
SAN JOAQUIN CA-
657 PM PDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM PDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY...

AT 651 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY...
OR 12 MILES WEST OF STOCKTON...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THIS STORM HAS SHOWN ROTATION IN THE PAST...AND
A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3782 12142 3781 12157 3783 12157 3785 12156
3787 12159 3788 12160 3793 12157 3796 12159
3805 12159 3806 12135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 180DEG 12KT 3792 12149

$$

DANG


Well, we are supposed to have a 20% chance of rain and it looks like they got that one right. Got up to 71.8 here today. So, we have had 20 of the last 21 days over 70F. Goldilocks weather.....lol
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I wonder what makes Austin and Waller Counties so special that they're still under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch way out away from everything.


That one storm that is riding the US/MEX border. The storm legitimately is riding next to the Rio Grande.


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 77
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 905 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST
OF ALICE TEXAS TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF ALICE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 73...WW 76...

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL TO SOFTBALL-SIZED HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME...STEADILY GROWING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE STORM.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33025.


...MEAD
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
817 BaltimoreBrian: Who are the moderators? It seems better here.

Discussion about the (Mod)s on WunderYakuza's blog