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National Hurricane Conference news

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:58 PM GMT on April 05, 2007

At the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans this week, scientists from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) took the opportunity to unveil some changes for the upcoming season--and plea for more funding. New NHC chief Bill Proenza repeated his call for a replacement for the aging QuikSCAT satellite, which measures surface winds over ocean areas. Data from this satellite improves hurricane forecasts by 10-16%, he said. Proenza has been vocal about the need for increased funding for hurricane research and operations early in his tenure at NHC, which I welcome wholeheartedly.

New cone of death, new storm surge product
NHC will be modifying the cone of uncertainty that appears around their forecast hurricane tracking maps in 2007. The new cone uses average errors from the past five years of official NHC forecasts. The cone is sized so that storms will fall inside the cone 2/3 of the time, based on these past five years of forecast errors. The old cone simply used the forecast track error averaged over the past ten years of NHC forecasts. The new cone will be about the same size as the old cone for 12-72 hour forecasts, and about 15-25 miles wider beyond that time. Wunderground.com will change their track maps to follow the NHC convention.

The NHC also announced that a new experimental "probabilistic storm surge" product will become available this year. The graphic will show the odds that a storm surge of 5, 10 or 15 feet will affect the coast. The forecast comes from NHC's SLOSH storm surge computer model.


Figure 1. Sample of the new Probabilistic Storm Surge product from NHC, for Hurricane Dennis of 2005.

New Orleans wunderblogger Patrap is at the National Hurricane Conference, and has more info on the conference, for those interested.

Madagascar appeals for aid
Tropical Cyclone Jaya, the sixth tropical cyclone to affect the island of Madagascar this season, has killed three people and caused substantial damage. Jaya hit northern Madagascar as a Category 1 storm earlier this week. The island is suffering through its worst cyclone season on record, and has issued repeated pleas to the international community for aid.

New restrictions on what NOAA scientists can say
NOAA climate, weather and marine scientists will be subject to new restrictions as to what they can say to the media or in public, according to a new policy directive scheduled to take effect in May. I read through the new directive and found it confusing, so I'm not sure what the practical effect of the new guidelines will be. I'll check in later this year with NOAA scientists who might be affected to see if the new policy has had any impact.

My lecture in the Tampa Bay area next week
I'll be giving a free public lecture on Friday, April 13, at Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida. The title of the talk will be, "A Preview of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season--and the Story of a Flight into Hurricane Hugo." The details:

Friday April 13, 4:00 to 5:00 p.m.
Fox Hall
Eckerd College
4200 54th Avenue S
St. Petersburg, FL 33711

Here's a map of where Eckerd College is. I hope to see some of you there! I'll have time after the talk to chat. You can email me at jmasters@wunderground.com if you have comments about my appearance. Check my blog next Thursday to see if there are any late changes to the talk's time or location, but I'm not anticipating that there will be.

My next blog will be Friday or Saturday. I'll discuss Part 2 of the landmark Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 report, which will be released Friday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I reported that earlier, but you're better at it Doc M.
Hey Patrap got some recognition...KUDOS!
Thanks.Are they removing the center black line from the cone?
Yeah,I noticed that too MP.Nice job,Patrap.
Gimme my satellite!

No surprise that the Bush administration is seeking to further gag the scientists. If we had had a similar administrations a few decades ago we would all still believe cigarettes are good for you and non-addictive.
wait! Cigarettes are bad? Sheesh. Could a billion chinese farmers have it wrong?
Dr. Master's will try and get over there next Friday. Would Love to meet you. You have done so much for us over the years.

Thank You.
Hey someone Film Doc MAsters' lecture and put it on YOutube or something..
MP- If I can get over there I will do that for WU.
If indeed we get a weak to moderate Nina it will open the doors for a eastcoast hits as it supports a displaced bermuda high and a path towards the eastcoast.

Here is a quick sample of surface pressures from a few la nina's.Note the higher than normal pressures in the north central atlantic and the lower pressures into the central atlantic to the southeast coastline.

(Dangerous setup for the eastcoast)


"Release him Vader"
You'd be a hero like Patrap if ya did Rays
Just doing a service fort he WU.
H23,check out this map.
500mb heights over most of the Atantic and U.S were nearly identical in March 2007 to the way they were in March 2004.

I will be attending the Governers Hurricane Conference in a few weeks in fort lauderdale and look to be hopefully look to be getting some interviews.Hopefully.
Yea kris the eastcoast could be in for some serious action this season from capeverde like systems.Also need to watch out for development close to home.
I think Florida's gonna be in for it this year.It looks like we'll be in neutral to me.
LOL....
The next Kelvin wave looks like it could be warm:

Looks like it but things can change hopefully they will.Maybe Joe b is on point after all.We'll find in the coming months.
In any case,the season is fast approaching.Soon the speculation will be over and the watching will begin.
Did you check out the update from CPC morning?I posted it on your blog.
Only 55 days.
Yes,I did see that.Thanks.Did you see the Melbourne NWS ENSO update?
No not yet post me a link.
ENSO Discussion: For the week centered on 21 March tropical Pacific SST conditions were neutral with Nino 1+2 at -.6, Nino 3.0 at -0.4, Nino 3.4 at 0.0 and Nino 4.0 at +0.4. All indices have fallen rapidly since peaking in late December as predicted by the NOAA CFS model but have stabilized somewhat since mid March. The latest daily SST analysis for 31 March shows a narrow area of significantly cooler water in the eastern Pacific along the equator within the Nino 3.0 and 1+2 areas, but the western Pacific and much of the southern Pacific just south of the equator remain slightly warm. Overall the picture is of Pacific SST's in transition from El Nino to neutral to at least a weak La Nina, as indicated by the latest seasonal run of the CFS. Not all SST models agree on this rapid development of a La Nina during spring, but indicate near neutral conditions, however these models were too warm given March verification. In any case, for the remainder of the dry season the picture is clear. Our experimental forecast scenarios will be based on the CPC CFS ensemble SST model consensus for Nino 3.4 and Nino 3.0 which favor continued cooling to near weak La Nina by the end of April. The impact on Florida from El Nino essentially ended in early March and a positive AO/NAO pattern has kept storminess and rainfall to a minimum. The rest of April should see the continued influence of cooler Pacific SST's. The latest GFS run for 1 April out to mid April holds out little prospect for storms or significant rainfall as the storm track remains to the north. This will be the last update for the 2006-2007 dry season which ends on April 30th.

Other teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA, and MJO) can play a major role on Florida Dry Season weather. They can act to enhance or suppress the impact of an El Nino, particularly if its not strong . Refer to our latest research report for background. Please review the Storminess, Rainfall and Temperature pages for discussions on impacts.

For a more in depth discussion on ENSO and it's effects on Florida see our "EL NIO-Southern Oscillation And Florida Educational Material." For a formal definition of El Nio and La Nia see CPC's FAQ on "What is El Nio and La Nia."
there it is
I see a weak nina to neutral conditions.
Thanks bud.
I think 17-20 named storms.
Dr.Masters told me that he will do a blog in early may on steering currents for this season.
Wish he'd do it now
Yea me to but he thinks its nonsence doing it this early which i agree to some extent.
NOAA climate, weather and marine scientists will be subject to new restrictions as to what they can say to the media or in public, according to a new policy directive scheduled to take effect in May.

Isnt that a freedom of speech, or freedom of press issue?
Not really.
Hey Patrap, you are famous!!! Thanks for the info Dr. Masters. Will be looking forward to the storm surge product this season. St. Pete too far for me on a weekday, too bad.
Posted By: weatherboykris at 8:53 AM PDT on April 05, 2007.

I think 17-20 named storms.


lol this make it 17-21 storms so that way we get all the names
so what do you all think of Bill Proenza? you think he will do a good job this year?
He'll do ok.We'll see what happens.
Alot of experience under his belt with 30+ years in the national weather service.
That will help.
Thanks for your awesome blog, Dr. Masters!

It appears that La Nina will not be as strong as I had originally anticipated, especially if the next kelvin wave that comes along is a warmer one. I still only give El Nino about a 10% chance of developing during the hurricane season of 2007, a 50% chance of neutral conditions to develop, and a 40% chance of La Nina conditions to develop (that'll all depend on the kelvin waves, as well as how long the cooling and or warming lasts). Overall, my forecast for 16-18 storms still stands.
And yes, I think Bill Proenza will do just fine. Maybe not another Max Mayfield just yet, but he'll do fine.
No El Nino.Not gonna happen.
Posted By: DocBen
"No surprise that the Bush administration is seeking to further gag the scientists."

We try to keep this blog "non-political"...... would appreciate if you would do the same!

The only exception that I know of, is when Dr. Masters brings up politics himself, which is rare or never!

You are welcome to "discuss" this kind of material in your "own" blog. I probably would not have even commented had you not referred to "the Bush administration" directly......

Thanks! :)

No, I am not a moderator, I just don't want to see Dr. Masters blogs turned into a political rant by conservatives or liberals!

We are here to learn, study, express weather related facts.... if we threw in political views from each member, this blog would lose what makes it so great.... weather is not political!

I think later this year When Dr. Masters post's his findings "with NOAA scientists who might be affected to see if the new policy has had any impact" would be he perfect place to throw in your comments regarding the new restrictions.

Dr. Masters is well versed, and even He at this point is un-sure of the effects, if any......

Sorry if this post sounds like a rant, or if I am out of line, just felt it needed to be said.....
It is very unlikely we will return to nino conditions.
Next winter could be colder than normal due to the La Nina possibility.
correct.
i think we could see neutral conditions this like we saw in 2005 if we do i think my forcast could be right has far has name storm gos
Taz...we will not see 30 storms.
Hey kris stop by my youtube page and check the andrew loops i have saved along with great vids on other systems.I have saved videos from my friend how tracks these systems worldwide.
CB,we won't see a depression probably for about a month and a half.
Not likely...Good rains for florida looks more of a good bet.
how do you no that i think we could see 30 names storm
And not much rain at that H23.
Taz...be realistic.I think 25 is the highest feasible number.
H23 Can you expand on that please..

Not likely...Good rains for florida looks more of a good bet.
Did you see that the Gulf temp at Dauphin Island in Alabama dropped 12 degrees in less than 24 hours!

Link
There will be some rain today and tonight in South Florida.No more than a half inch
Taz nothing is imposible but more focus should placed on were these systems will eventually track.Numbers are not imporatant cause even a slow can turn out bad.
anything is feasible this early in the year..
Gulf Stream's heating up:

Look at this from hurricanecity:

UPDATE BY:Jim Williams....Dr William Gray and Phil Klotzbach have released their April hurricane forecast for the 2007 season here. The last two seasonal forecast's have not been very good. In 2005 they predicted nearly half as many storms as what actually occured. Last year they predicted an active season & it ended up below average. This year they are predicting another active season, so it will be interesting to see if they can turn it around this year. Our current feature is now Miami Florida and the hype has already started for Miami to be hit this year. Suprisingly going back to 1900 Miami gets a direct hit within 60 miles from a hurricane mostly during average hurricane seasons of 10.6 named storms. Out of 15 direct hits, nearly half were years of double digit named storms with the other half during slower seasons. The moral of the story here is any area can get hit even during a slow season and in many very busy seasons Miami has not been affected.I will have more on all the cities on June 1st on the hurricane season kickoff show.
H23: I went to your you tube page and I love the footage on The Flora-Bama that is 1 awsome place.
Posted By: BoyntonBeach at 1:01 PM EDT on April 05, 2007.

H23 Can you expand on that please..

Not likely...Good rains for florida looks more of a good bet.

A front is dipping down from northern florida to central might bring a 40-50 percent chance of precip which is welcomed down here.Temps look to dip into the upper 50's on sunday easter morning and low 60's on saturday night followed by some more rain chances into next week.

Nothing severe is expected.
GOD FORBID!!
: weatherboykris yes it is
Thanks sheri...Look at the hugo footage captured by my friend in puerto rico.
Wunder Blog Directory
Blogs For People Who Love The Outdoors


So who blogs outdoors?

I didn't think so..

I'm picking a random number of named storms this year..14

so what do you think of a cat 5 land fall this year i am not saying it will but we could but what do you think
A cat5 making landfall is right up there with
Haley's Comet stopping by next weekend...
I don't see a Cat 5 landfall either.It's certainly possible as I think we'll see 2 or 3 Cat 5's...but not likely.
12hr accumulated precipitation for the southeast.


I'd say it is only a 15% chance at MOST for a Cat 5 landfall this year. Still something to watch, though. I'm still easily calling for about 2 major hurricanes to make landfall this year in the U.S., and two in the Carribean, with the fifth one going out to sea.
Here is something i posted early on the blog about nina years...

If indeed we get a weak to moderate Nina it will open the doors for a eastcoast hits as it supports a displaced bermuda high and a path towards the eastcoast.

Here is a quick sample of surface pressures from a few la nina's.Note the higher than normal pressures in the north central atlantic and the lower pressures into the central atlantic to the southeast coastline.

(Dangerous setup for the eastcoast)


So what that means is, the Gulf Coast isn't likely to be hit, but rather the east coast? Or am I reading that wrong?
too bad i dont live in florida otherwise i would surely come to the conference only thing i dont like about is that it is on friday the 13th lol :P

last time that i was in america on friday the 13th i was in in hurricane charley
You're reading it wrong.
oh my 23 dos that mean FL is in for it
In La Nina years,both the Gulf and the East Caost are at risk.
23 is that map for this year or in about 9 years from now?
LOL...
Guys,geuss what!
In 2009,when a new supercomputer is introduced,the HWRF will begin using a 2.5 mile resolution.That would've been small enough to see Wilma's eye.
LOL Gulfscotsman.
weatherboykris what?
From insurance journal:

The forecast improvements are largely due to better observations taken by researchers inside storms and the computer models run at the federal government's Environmental Modeling Center, he said. Hurricane track and intensity predictions are in line to get even better when the center's new model goes into use in 2007.

The advancements come at a time when some current and former federal hurricane experts have argued that spending on hurricane programs is far lower than it should be, with many agencies lacking adequate staff and forced to use outdated or broken equipment.

Despite that, researchers are on the verge of making breakthroughs on matters that have puzzled experts for decades - predicting how strong and big a hurricane will become, said Frank Marks, who heads the Hurricane Research Division, which along with the hurricane center and modeling center, are part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The next big step will come in 2006, when the new Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast model will be run alongside others for final testing, said Naomi Surgi, the hurricane program leader at the Environmental Modeling Center. The HWRF (pronounced H-Wharf) will be used for public forecasts in 2007, she said.

It should cut down even more on track errors, which have been reduced by half over the last decade, she said. Errors on 24-hour tracking forecasts are now on average about 50 miles off, down from 100.

What has researchers hopeful for intensity and size predictions is the HWRF's ability to use more data in its calculations, which for the first time will be done in real time, Surgi said.

The model's higher resolution means it will use more readings of conditions from the land, sea and air to make better predictions. The current model created by the federal Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory uses readings taken 7.5 miles apart in a storm, but the new one shrinks that to as low as 5 miles. That should go down to 2.5 miles in 2009 with an upgraded supercomputer, Surgi said.

Marks said they'll need to be closer to half-a mile "to do it right." That would give the models a much better picture of the hurricane's structure.

Hurricane hunter aircraft also will feed live Doppler radar data to the model, which will allow it to make three-dimensional images of a storm's structure. That will enable forecasters to see exactly where a hurricane's worst winds and rains are in real time.

Once NOAA's high-altitude jet gets the radar in 2008, it will be able to transmit radar images from the upper reaches of a hurricane down to near the surface, Surgi said. In several years, that may allow forecasters to predict how big a hurricane may be days in advance, Marks said.

That is just as important as judging how strong a hurricane will be, Marks said. For example, take Wilma, which hit South Florida this year as a larger but much weaker storm than Charley, a small Category 4, did in 2004.

"Now Charley, if you lived in a tiny swath, was terrible. Wilma affects a bigger area," Marks said.

The HWRF will also have a component that will better represent what surface friction does to hurricanes when they hit land. It should also give better predictions of hurricanes that stall in one place, like Wilma over Mexico, or have erratic tracks, like Ophelia off the East Coast.

One major question that the HWRF isn't expected to tackle is determining when a hurricane will rapidly intensify. But researchers will have plenty of information to study from this year's three top-scale Category 5 hurricanes. Wilma is a prime example: In 24 hours it went from a tropical storm to the Atlantic's most intense hurricane, the quickest strengthening ever recorded.

"In terms of research, this has been a goldmine," Marks said.

This season has also put a spotlight on America's vulnerability to hurricanes. Experts hope the devastation prods Congress and the White House into spending more money on hurricane forecasting and research to ensure that improvements continue.

Marks was careful not to criticize the spending decisions made by his superiors, as some of his researchers have. But he said tight budgets have meant he has had to cut back in some areas. The research division's total budget was $4.1 million in the fiscal year that ended in September, and some of Marks' workers have said it needs to be closer to $10 million.

"When you look at the cost of these events and the impact, what NOAA spends on this stuff is probably on the order of less than 1 percent of that cost," Marks said. "If people want instant results, it's going to cost us."

morning Gulf, how have you been?

and i think Andrea will do a loop 4 times and hit the canadian maritimes as a CAT4, lol


uh oh, here we go, it begins...
Hellow All...For Dr. Master's and the Guys/Gals on the Blob; With all of the speculation and Las Vegas style odds going on as to numbers and Cats in here lately, I read a newspaper clip yesterday about some new type of "supermodel" our of U of Maryland that appears to be a very good "hopeful" in terms of intensity forecasts, they stated that it performed well in "trials" the last few seasons, and they hope to bring it online in the next few seasons to better predict short term intensity fluctuations (i.e. just before landfall)......Your thoughts and comments as this is the first time I heard about this new model?................

Sorry, I was typing as the comment below came online..This is the clip I was referring to............
I believe they are talking about the HWRF...do you have a link?
Detox for the forecast track.
114. K8e1
i'm a little concerned about the new gag orders that forecasters are under. What the heck gives with that? I alluded to something of the sort on a few posts last season and got blasted
Jolly Good Show Gulf..........I was Grasshopper last year but hope to be "The Apprentice" this year........
Well k8...I agree that it is stupid they are gagged.But,that's the way it is.Heck,the government can't have scientists running round telling the truth!
The latest KBDI indicates Martin County has reached the 700 mark. Palm Beach climbed 3 points to 688. I hope they are right about this rain today and next week.
Why don't we do a hair match using invests as our wrestlers
The contrast with the soon to be recended NOAA's "Open Science" policy seems to be where they were once asked to make clear any personal views seperate from charactorizing work done for NOAA. Now they will not be able to mention personal views.

The NWS employees organization seems to have some problems with it's vagueness as well. Points out some areas where a discuragement to openly discuss the weather that has already happened, only keeping to the forecasts. As well as the lack of discussion of what happens if someone violates this. & kin to NOAA, upset with not being able to express persional views even if stated as such or "nonofficial".

One part I personally don't care for is Section 4 .02, especially the excutive order part. I'd like some reassurance that raw data related to current weather conditions that is normally available to the public, be always available, when possible.
Hello and good evening from Portugal! Its great reading about hurricane predictions as I am originally from Florida. Here in Europe we dont worry about hurricanes, except the last two years (and the first time in history) a tropical storm (Vince in 2005) hit southern Portugal and Spain. It was a TD by then but still had gale winds. Then last year Hurricane Gordon flew through the Azores heading due east and brushed the coast of Portugal, Spain and France as a TD. Very unusual. Luckily the SSTs even in summer are only in the mid 60s so storms die quick. Only if the fly along, like Gordon, can they actually make it here. Is anyone else out there writing from Europe?
K8. It has to do with what they can say to the media and even that is alittle confusing, as Dr. Masters has alluded to. It will not affect the way they forecast a system.
Madrid is,I think.
dr m you have mail
03~ it covers all public communication
NEW ORLEANS - Authorities did not violate a couple's constitutional right to travel by stopping them from crossing the Mississippi River Bridge to escape the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, a federal judge has ruled
I understand that Skye, but believe me a forecaster is not gonna compromise his forecast to the public because of it. This isnt the communist state!..LOL Although, seeing how the current administration runs things I wonder sometimes..LOL
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N91W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE LOW
CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 28N80W 27N85W 25N91W 18N94W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 85W-94W.
25-30 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT ELY WINDS
ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS FORMING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N95W. CYCLONIC FLOW
IS WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF THE
CENTER WHILE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE E
OF THE CENTER. SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF
88W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR BELIZE WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS WITHIN 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE E TO FLORIDA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

The upper level winds seem unfavorable for any kind of developement at this time of the year
Awesome.. more faces from last year ^_^.... intresting..a bigger cone..to me it was already huge lol
but i guess it does make sense
Is anyone else out there writing from Europe?

hello airman45, not so much writing as reading from Europe *s*
Living in Switzerland, really nothing to do with hurricanes. But I got interested somehow und now I'm addicted. Still learning though, therefor I read this blog and refrain - until now - from comments.
Whoa... im here in South Broward, Florida and this is the hardest rain i've gotten in a long time.... half of my backyard was under water and most of the street and that hasn't happened since like September =0 I have a rain gauge and it measured 1.16 inches of rain in less than an hour..pretty intresting
Some heavy rains pushing into parts of south florida...



yeah.
just passing through i am usually on here everyday to read the blogs, but i am waiting till huricane season to be alot more active on this site.
close-up on rain showers moving threw coral gables...


It's raining up here in Boca Raton as well...looks like the majority of the cold front is still up North though...maybe we'll get some nice rain overnight.
GulfScotsman - looks to me like "Andrea" is just a frontal blob - no rotation.
There a possibility of a tornado in nroth broward and south palm beach ..they isssued a special weather statement and on cbs4 the meteorlogist mentioned it
HurricaneRoman nothing to worry about just a cloudy mess that will probably turn out to be a few showers for south florida.Will help the current drought but much more is needed.
Dont see anything close to being a tornado right now just heavy rain and lighting.
Most of the rain for southeast florida miami and broward counties will move in later tonight.

Expect a rainy commute tommorow morning!
Andrea is clearly exposed but has an excellent outflow channel to the northern gulf..... wonder if that is the direction she will go.

who said anything about that being andrea?
Yay more rain!!!
lol cyclone buster .. iavent seen u in a while =D ..still with ur tunnel idea??
Today was the 20th day in a row with not even a trace of rain here.
Accuweather has gone insane, they are predicting 27 F for us on Saturday night, which is 9 degrees below the record low for April. I can see breaking a monthly record by a degree or two, but not by 9 degrees. The latest it has ever been 27 here is March 15, 1993 after the superstorm!
im in sarasota FL and we havnt had any rain for preetty much all of march. so this is a good thing by the way does that low in the gulf have any chance of developement? please post oppinions
The low in the gulf now has no chance to develop tropically whatsoever. It is under a jet streak which is shearing it, and a record cold wave will move into the area by Saturday. April is as hostile for tropical development as any time of year anyway.
" April is as hostile for tropical development anyway "

Right on, Guy.

LOL
I think I know what you mean though, and I agree.

But you seem to be looking at some freaky cold weather your way ?
If your worried and want to know where to watch to be concerned, here ya go!

Scared ! I wouldn't board up just yet!



I wouldn't board up just yet!
im predicting tropical development in the next 30 seconds
hey JP, how many predictions you got so far?
Re : the call by Mr. Proenza for funding a new satelite. He says that if the current one goes down, a 10 - 16 % reduction in forecast accuracy may result. Cost of new one some 400 mil. $.
Can anyone put this into perspective ? How much would actually be lost to anyone, by having a 10 % reduction in a not very accurate forecast anyway.?

Just trying to get this into perspective...........
whats the criteria you want for the individual storms?
US landfalls or landfalls in general?
hey JP make sure you know the first list of cat's on my first contest is not for landfalls, which is second.
what should we put for guesses in locations like the gulf coast, the East coast, the dominican republic/haiti/puerto rico?
we should make like a set territory for the landfalls, like one for the islands, one for the gulf coast, one for the east coast
and should it be only initial landfall? like what about if you think it will go through cuba and then hit florida?
JP check your mail, after we get this settled my Second Contest is done.
the cold front is here...but no rain in sight...crewed again !
hi
Good morning fellow forecasters.
No Drought Buster but, every little bit helps. I wish the 2 inch markers had better coverage. Most of the state ended up with a 1/4 to 1/2 inch.
Also add, some didn't get any at all.
Good morning everyone. I just wanted to say I have really enjoyed everyones banter on this blog for the past couple of years now, just out of curiosity is anyone in here real meterologists, because a good number of yall really sound like you know what you are talking about.
Some here are MET's or in MET school! Most I would say are hobbiest though. I personally fall into that catagory but, with a wealth of information on the net, good instinct and 4 years experience you can do a pretty darn good job at it.
I enjoyed the little rain we got...really needed
Just a bunch of good people that like to sit around and talk about the weather! Yeah it was nice T2, low dewpoints and high winds this weekend will take care of that though!
Heavier rains forcast for next week though, hopefully that comes true.
A 1004mb low should sweep through florida in 5 odd days
Anyone...Who and what does this gag order protect? What special interest is it going to benefit? Is it meant to stop scientists from being political in what they report? Or...is it meant to exonerate any gov. official by giving them a chance to censor what gets released? Or...is it in the best interest in our national security?
I agree there needs to be some way of getting science back to pure science, and take politics out the equation. How do you do this without dis-servicing the public?
192. MahFL
Not a drop of rain in Orange Park, despite the forcast of "some good showers", makes you wonder sometimes if the forcasters know what they are talking about...now wouldn't that be a first.....

FL is getting drier...

Moisture Index
193. MahFL
I think its because President Bush does not want to admit to Global Warming....
In regards to the "GAG Order", this is just regular SOP for a federal government employee's. Working for the federal government what an employee says can be construed as an Official government statement. It is not a matter is stifling a message as to prevent contradicting messages which creates confusion. As long as a scientist speaks in a personal capacity they can voice what they want, but if they are speaking in an setting where it may be construed as an official statement they have to follow certain rules. Those rules are set by the agency.
he said he knows there is Global Warming a few days ago
horizondb, I figured that much. I just wanted to stir the pot a little this morning. It is good Friday, so maybe its better to just be bored and not get anyone's blood pressure up.
197. MahFL
"he said he knows there is Global Warming a few days ago"

Yes but with him, what he says and what he beleives are not always the same......like a lot of politions I may add.
Easter Bunny!!

Link
MahFL, That's why everyone should do a little research before jumping off the cliff with anything any politician says. It pains me to see how naive some people can be. This goes with any party, group, or organization. There is always an opportunists in the waiting.
200. Inyo
. As long as a scientist speaks in a personal capacity they can voice what they want,

well, this is what they want to change, isnt it?

There was a thunderstorm in socal last night... but not near me. i was in santa barbara
NHC Conference in Nawlins, Friday, April 6, 2007

8:30 a.m. to 12:00 Noon CST
Closing General Session



12:00 Noon CST
Conference Adjourns: Thanks for Coming and sharing.. 6
is that you sitting in the back of the carriage?
Neg..thats my view thru the cam..
Posted By: livinginnavarre at 4:20 PM GMT on April 06, 2007.

is that you sitting in the back of the carriage?


No, that's him pulling the carriage.



(Sorry, couldn't resist. I try not to call names in here, but that one was too easy. I really do respect you, man.)
90L?
this is off of FL E coast

lol
The first 80 degree SSTs off the FL coast have appeared:

The yearly rise is underway:

Look at how the north winds are blowing! It is a good thing this didn't happen in January!
Cripes, try this linkLink
Jeez, try this :) http://coolwx.com/usstats/data/wind.png
Since the accuracy of track forecasts is improving the average error in the past five years should be less than the average error over the past 10 years. So why will the new error cones be LARGER than the old ones?
As long as a scientist speaks in a personal capacity they can voice what they want, but if they are speaking in an setting where it may be construed as an official statement they have to follow certain rules. Those rules are set by the agency.

Absolutely correct. Having been in the military for 20 years one thing we are told is to NEVER speak to the press about any ongoing event. We must refer them to the Public Affairs office. This is because any opinion we give may be misconscrued as a fact or opinion of the entire service by the general public.
Living in Switzerland, really nothing to do with hurricanes. But I got interested somehow und now I'm addicted. Still learning though, therefor I read this blog and refrain - until now - from comments.<em>

Good evening, Starwoman from Switzerland. Glad to hear from a neighbor, although not a very nearby one. I have also been reading but never commenting for about a year and a half until a few days ago. The "regulars" on here are great, arent they?
The new error cone will stretch from Texas to Maine and all points between, lol. The only thing that's changing is beyond 72 hours. Look at Ernesto over 72 hours, that was horrid. They had Texas to North Carolina and all points between.
Over 72 hours is a crapshoot anyway!
90L?
this is off of FL E coast


Not yet, but that looks to me like a very bad omen. Even worse, if you look to the northern part of the storm in that frame, the clouds form what looks like a 3 and then just southeast of that a 0... Taz... God thinks 30 too.
Kris here are a few maps showing heat content across the atlantic.Quite a difference from the record breaking 2005.

(April 5,2005)



(April 5,2007)

Link it.
next time cajunkid link it not post the oh thing
what is it?
Good god... big post.
Whats your thoughts on the maps kris?
I don't think that any season...not for a while anyway(50 years or so maybe) will have the same SSTS and heat content as 2005 had.That being said,SST this year are still well above average,and you can't diminish them just because they don't match those of '05.
Still well above average.

well this year we will hae low wind shear not march dry air and no dust
Ad don't pay attention to those cold anomalies near Florida.Days and days of 90 degree temps will erase those by May.
Of course not kris because you cant compare the 2005 season to any season in recent memory.The atmospheric conditions that were in place with wilma were ones ive never seen which gave way to the monsterous pressure drop.

One very important thing to keep in mind is if this season gives way to a few majors making landfall in heavily populated areas this season will turn out worse then 2005.If a major hurricane were to strike southeast florida meaning miami dade and broward counties the damage would be incredible.Look what CAT1 with some brief gusts to CAT2 did to miami with wilma.
Yeah,exactly.You can have a worse season than '05 without as many total storms.Actually,'05 wouldn't have been much worse than '04 if not for Katrina.If a Cat 4 strikes Southeast Florida,losses will be much worse than '05.Or,at least as bad.
sea temps going up?
Yeah.
Had Wilma not lost its inner-core over the Yucatan, it probably would have hit Florida as a 4 or a 5 and would have been even worse.
what made it go in to Yucatan and not FL at 1st and did Wilma make land fall in Yucatan has cat 5?
If Katrina would have 12-18 more hours over water before it struck florida things would have been very dffererent.Remember katrina was at 45KT the morning of Aug 25. When it crossed the coast at about 23Z, it had increased to 70KT and a tight inner-core had formed.
No,H23,you're wrong about Wilma.That tight inner core woulda been ripped apart by shear.It needed to be big if it was to make it to major hurricane status in the GOM.
But,you're right about Katrina.
This is a very unusual forecast for south Louisiana

Link
Different faces with wilma.


It is unusual.
Had Wilma's core not have collapsed, many more people would have received destructive conditions than would have received a major cane.
Nice pic,H23.
what made it go in to Yucatan and not FL at 1st and did Wilma make land fall in Yucatan has cat 5?
Could we really have a rain/sleet mix Sunday in south Louisiana? WOW
Here is a visible pic of katrina at 17:15Z.


who is the hot chick on the horse? Caribbean Queen...

No,a 4 Taz.And it was moving around an area of high pressure.That's why it hit the Yucatan.
Making landfall in florida.


did it hit Yucatan has cat 5?
is the High supposed to be any stronger or weaker this season?
No Taz,a 4.
It looks like it will be stronger,but that's not much better than a geuss right now.
i think Emily and Wilma where the same
No they weren't.
Emily was just barely a Cat 5.Wilma was well within the boundaries of Cat 5,and if there was such a category,would've been Cat 6.
Single Storm Records:

Strongest Atlantic hurricane ever: Wilma, 882 mb central pressure. Old record: Hurricane Gilbert (1988), 888 mb.
Fastest intensification ever by an Atlantic hurricane: Wilma. Wilma's pressure dropped 97 millibars in 24 hours Previous record: Gilbert (1988) dropped 72 mb in 24 hours. Wilma's pressure fell 54 mb over six hours, beating Hurricane Beulah's drop of 38 mb in six hours in 1967. Wilma's 12 hour pressure fall of 83 mb beat the old 12 hour pressure fall record of 48 mb set by Hurricane Allen in 1980.
Most damaging hurricane ever: Katrina, $100 billion plus. Old record: Hurricane Andrew (1992), $50 billion in 2005 dollars.
Greatest storm surge from an Atlantic hurricane: Katrina, 28-30 feet. Old record: Hurricane Camille (1969), 24.6 feet.
Dennis became the most intense hurricane on record before August when a central pressure of 930 mb was recorded.
Emily eclipsed the record previously set by Dennis for lowest pressure recorded for a hurricane before August when its central pressure reached 929 mb.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
339 PM CDT Friday Apr 6 2007


Short term...
secondary shot of colder air now approaching the area...as
signaled by cold air stratocumulus clouds...an increase in the
winds and lower dewpoints. Dewpoints as low as the lower teens
already in southwest Missouri. Going to be a chilly short term
forecast package.


We should see plenty of clouds through the weekend. Cloud cover
tonight should hold temperatures just above freezing in all areas
by a few degrees. Shortwave moving out of Texas will approach the
area Saturday afternoon and evening. Isentropic charts at 290k
show enough lift to trigger precipitation...although it will be
falling into a dry lower layer. This will set up Saturday nights
forecast problem.


While most precipitation should be off the coast...still expect
light precipitation to fall across most of the area. NAM soundings
have been consistent in showing the precipitation to be frozen
along and north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor toward sunrise
Sunday morning. Question will be the surface temperatures.
Freezing temperatures are an exceedingly rare event in our County Warning Area in
April. Mav guidance shows subfreezing temperatures at mcb...btr
and gpt Sunday morning...which would be below or near all time
record lows for the month of April. Met guidance has similar
numbers. Will go somewhat conservative...and mention some
potential for sleet along and north of the Interstate 10/12
corridor...and hold lows close to freezing.



Sunday will be a raw...damp day...especially early. We should see
enough warming for all precipitation to be liquid in all areas.
Will go close to MOS guidance on high temperatures...but would not
be shocked if these need to be lowered in later forecasts.


Plan on issuing Special Weather Statement with zone package highlighting unseasonably
cold weather for the Easter weekend
Fujiwhara Effect defined...Link